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4201. The EU Consented to Negotiations, but will it Allow Turkey in?

Author:
Murat Metin Hakki
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
The Europeans fought the Turks and tried to drive them away from Europe for about 16 centuries, starting in around 452 C.E. when Attila, the Emperor of Huns, sieged Rome. They almost achieved that goal with the 1912-13 Balkan War. However, the circumstances brought the Turks to the gates of Brussels almost 90 years later, this time as a candidate for the EU membership. The most advanced stage Turkey reached in the process of accession came with the EU's decision to start negotiations on October 3, 2005. The success of the AKP Government should be acknowledged with that respect. They reached a point no Turkish cabinet had reached until now. However, it is obvious that the repercussions of the December 17, 2004 decision should not be overestimated.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Rome

4202. Geopolitics, Grand Strategy and the Bush Doctrine

Author:
Simon Dalby
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Geopolitics is about the largest scale geographical specification of political matters. Geopolitical reasoning provides the spatial framings within which grand strategy is constructed. The Bush doctrine, elaborated in response to the events of September 11th 2001 and its formulation of a "Global War on Terror" draws heavily on antecedent formulations from both the first Bush administration and the Project for a New American Century. But in doing so it both misconstrues the nature of the events of September 11th and attempts a grand strategy that is flawed. It is flawed both because of its failure to understand the geography of terror and, given the Bush administration's flat denials that America is an empire, a reluctance to learn lessons from imperial history and adopt appropriate strategies and force structures to accomplish its ostensible goals.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

4203. Indian Federalism and the Conduct of Foreign Policy in Border States: State Participation and Central Accommodation since 1990

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Srinidhi Vijaykumar
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The role of subnational units (states, provinces, cantons, Lander) in international affairs is a growing subject in the literature on federalist affairs. Scholars of political science have traditionally seen the conduct of foreign policy as the exclusive domain of the national government. This would seem an especially apt observation about India's federalist system. The Indian constitution has given the center particularly strong powers—so strong, in fact, that some have described it as “quasi federal” because of the lack of autonomy it affords to the states. Yet, there is an increasing consensus that the states have not been shy of foreign policy advocacy. Some have argued that the era of coalition governance has increased such advocacy and, potentially, influence, especially in the context of globalization and economic reform and liberalization.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

4204. Both Sides of the Aisle: A Call for Bipartisan Foreign Policy

Author:
Nancy Roman
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
People naturally disagree about who is responsible for the partisan tone and tactics in Washington, DC, these days, but most agree on this: It's worse, it's more intense, and it's nastier. And few on either side are enjoying it much.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Washington and North America

4205. Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits

Author:
Menzie D. Chinn
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, the United States was the world's largest creditor nation, unsurpassed in its ownership of assets outside of its borders, even after deducting what foreigners owned inside its borders. Yet over the past two decades, America has been transformed into the world's largest debtor nation. At the end of 2004, its debts to the rest of the world exceeded its assets by about $2.5 trillion—21 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This proportion is unmatched by any other major developed economy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and America

4206. In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conflict Capabilities

Author:
William L. Nash, Brent Scowcroft, and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
From Mogadishu to Mosul, the United States has undertaken six major nation-building operations around the world since 1993. The challenges of terrorism, failed states, and proliferation indicate this trend will only continue. Today, in Iraq, the United States carries the bulk of the nation-building burden. Some 135,000 U.S. troops remain on the ground, at an approximate cost of $50 billion per year. Nearly four years after forcing out the Taliban in Afghanistan, 9,000 NATO forces and 17,000 U.S. troops remain in that country to secure the peace and continue the hunt for al-Qaeda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Taliban

4207. Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

4208. Australians speak 2005: public opinion and foreign policy

Author:
Ivan Cook
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australians feel positive and self-confident about Australia's place in the world, but we also have a realistic sense of our limitations and vulnerabilities. A vast majority believe Australia is 'a good international citizen' (82%), 'important in Asia' (82%), and 'well-placed to succeed in a competitive world' (79%), while few agree with the notion that we are 'unimportant in global politics' (37%). But three quarters of respondents also think we are 'vulnerable to external threats' (76%), and while the population is evenly split on whether we are 'independent minded', 65% think we are 'a follower not a leader'.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

4209. Affinity and International Trade

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of American public attitudes toward foreign countries on the volume of trade. The issue is whether popular attitudes, as elicited in these surveys, convey any information about trust, risk, or transactions costs beyond what can be explained through standard economic models. The results of this paper suggest that they do, with a one standard deviation increase in warmth of feeling associated with a 20 to 31 percent larger trade volume when evaluated at the sample means. These public attitudes are in turn correlated with indices of cultural affinity and political ideology. A one standard deviation increase in the democracy score is associated with a 5 to 7 percent increase in trade. There might be additional secondary effects if democratization was associated with an increased likelihood of the removal of sanctions or the initiation of preferential trade relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

4210. Uncommon Ground: Indivisible Territory and the Politics of Legitimacy

Author:
Stacie Goddard
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Indivisible territory is all too frequent in international politics. In Jerusalem, many Israelis “insist that a united Jerusalem will be the eternal capital of the Jewish state,” whereas Palestinians contend that any deal excluding sovereignty over Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock is “an unacceptable compromise…[that] will make their blood boil.” India and Pakistan's inability to compromise over Kashmir has increased tensions between these nuclear powers, and well before the age of nationalism Maria-Thérèse refused to negotiate with Frederick the Great over the territory of Silesia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, Israel, Kashmir, and Palestine

4211. Dangerous Doctrine: How New U.S. Nuclear Plans Could Backfire

Author:
Michael M. May and Roger Speed
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In September 2002, President George W. Bush announced his new National Security Strategy. Although this doctrine retains some elements from the past, in some respects it is a bold departure from previous U.S. policy. It declares that the United States finds itself in a unique position of military and political dominance and that it has a moral duty to use this strength to establish a new liberal democratic world order. The National Security Strategy and Bush's supporting speeches argue that the United States must in effect establish and maintain a global military hegemony to secure its envisioned democratic, peaceful world. According to the strategy, carrying out this mission requires that any challenge to U.S. military dominance must be blocked, by force if necessary. A significant challenge to world stability comes from terrorists and certain states that are seeking weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Concerned that the Cold War doctrines of deterrence and containment may no longer work, and that "if we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long," Bush announced in the National Security Strategy a new "preemption doctrine" against such threats. Earlier, in 2001, the Bush administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) addressed the nuclear aspect of the issue. The review recognized the new cooperative relationship with Russia and the rising threat from the potential proliferation of WMD. The latter point was seen as particularly important, since future conflict with a number of regional powers was thought possible--North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Libya all were thought to sponsor or harbor terrorists and to have active WMD and missile programs. The NPR presented a new U.S. strategic military doctrine intended to transform the defense establishment with the creation of a new triad, consisting of offensive strike systems (both nuclear and conventional), defenses (both active and passive), and a revitalized defense infrastructure that will provide new capabilities to meet emerging threats. According to the NPR, the new triad will have four primary missions: to assure, dissuade, deter, and defeat. Bush later added a fifth mission, to preempt, which he characterized as proactive counterproliferation--the use of military force to prevent or reverse proliferation. The "Bush doctrine" called for new nuclear weapons to meet the requirements of these missions. It was argued that smaller nuclear weapons could reduce collateral civilian damage and make U.S. use of nuclear weapons more "credible," therefore deterring hostile nations or even dissuading opponents from acquiring WMD. However, our analysis indicates that low-yield nuclear weapons would likely be militarily effective in only a few cases, and even then the collateral damage could be significant unless the targets were located in isolated areas. Moreover, even if they were militarily effective, they would likely add little or nothing to U.S. deterrent capability, nor be effective at dissuading WMD acquisition. Indeed, the new weapons concepts advanced to date seem to have little to do with deterrence of a nuclear (or other WMD) attack on the United States or its allies. Instead, they appear to be geared toward a warfighting role, which could ultimately undermine rather than enhance U.S. security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States

4212. Stretching the Model of "Coalitions of the Willing"

Author:
Andrew F. Cooper
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Two models may be draw up of coalitions of the willing. The first model is epitomized by the group of countries assembled by the United States for the mobilization of the 2003 Iraq war. The second model is the form of coalition associated with the anti-personnel landmines campaign and the initiative on the International Criminal Court in the mid to late 1990s. This paper will explore the relationship between these different types of coalitions. The former type is characterized by a top-down, state-centric, and coerced/opportunistic strategic form. The latter type by way of contrast takes a bottom-up, voluntary, mixed actor, diplomatic approach. Yet, along side these differences are some striking, but unanticipated similarities. Most dramatically, both types have been assembled on an intense stylistic basis with an eye to avoiding the frustrations associated with working via established institutions. By looking more closely at the external expression and inner workings of these modes of activity, the model of coalitions of the willing is stretched out in terms of their motivations, sense of ownership, and future trajectory.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

4213. Las bases internas de la política exterior: realidades y retos de la apertura económica y la democracia

Author:
Guadalupe González González
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the links between economic liberalization, democratization and foreign policy using the Mexican experience as a case study. The paper revolves around three major concerns: a) the change in the role and place of foreign policy in the context of an open economy and a democratic regime, compared with the previous period of a closed economy and an authoritarian regime; b) the impact of economic liberalization and democratization on the formulation, agenda and orientation of foreign policy; c) the effects of the new economic, political and social internal configuration on the international position of Mexico and its negotiating capacity vis a vis the world. This work documents an increase in the level of activity and interest shown by numerous social, governmental and bureaucratic actors in foreign policy issues as a consequence of economic openness and democratization of the political regime, which leads towards a greater politization of the issue area. The main argument is that the deficits in economic and social development, democratic consolidation and governability, negatively affect the country's credibility and its negotiating capacity vis a vis the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Mexico

4214. México ante América Latina: Mirando de reojo a Estados Unidos

Author:
Guadalupe González González
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the patterns of continuity and change in Mexico's diplomatic strategies towards Latin America between 1945 and 2005 as a case study on the impact of systemic variables –specifically, changes in the distribution of power at world and regional level- on the foreign policy of intermediate states. It distinguishes four different periods in Mexico-Latin America relations using a typology of diplomatic strategies built upon two criteria: a) the intermediate state's level of attention and activity in its immediate regional area, and b) the level of alignment or convergence with U.S. policies, as the hegemonic power in the Hemisphere. The main argument is that changes in Mexico's relative position in the regional structure of power and the shift from bipolarity to unipolarity at global level do not explain the persistence of a historical gap between the symbolic and material dimensions of Mexico's relations with Latin America. Over the last six decades, the evidence points towards the existence of a growing disjuncture between Mexico's increasing power position in the region and its limited regional projection.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

4215. La política internacional de las entidades federativas mexicanas

Author:
Fabiola Lopez Farfan and Jorge A. Schiavon
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper analyses the participation of the Mexican federal units in the international arena. It seeks to answer three central questions: 1) do Mexican federal unit have a foreign policy of their own?, 2) which is the level of international participation of Mexican federal units?, and 3) which variables explain the variation in the level of internacional participation of Mexican federal units? To answer the first question, a brief analysis of the Mexican legal framework is presented, in order to clarify the legal limitations that federal units have in the foreign policy arena. To provide an answer to the second question, a typology of the international participation of federal units is developed and, based on it, the 32 Mexican federal units are classified. To answer the final question, it is argued that the degree of international participation depends on four types of variables: economic (income), political (party affiliation of state governors), geographic (border location), and local shocks (states' visibility). Evidence is provided to sustain the economic and geographic (at the Northern border only) variables. Finally, the last section presents three case studies (Federal District, Jalisco, and State of Mexico), which present huge variations in their level of international participation, in order to contrast them to better understand these extreme cases.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Central America and Mexico

4216. Opinión pública y política exterior en México y Estados Unidos: un estudio comparado

Author:
Guadalupe Gonzalez (ed), Susan Minushikin (ed), Robert Y. Shapiro (ed), and Catherine Hug
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The 2004 Mexico and the World survey, conducted by Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) and Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI), is the first-ever comprehensive study of Mexican public and leadership opinion on international affairs. The study is designed to measure general attitudes and values concerning Mexico's relationship with the world rather than opinions on specific foreign policies or issues. This year's survey was conducted in cooperation with The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations' (CCFR) 2004 study of American public and leadership opinion on foreign policy, a periodic survey conducted since 1974.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Central America, Mexico, and Chicago

4217. Comparing Mexican and American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

Author:
Guadalupe Gonzalez (ed), Susan Minushikin (ed), Robert Y. Shapiro (ed), and Catherine Hug
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The 2004 Mexico and the World survey, conducted by Centro de InvestigaciÓ;n y Docencia EconÓmicas (CIDE) and Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI), is the first-ever comprehensive study of Mexican public and leadership opinion on international affairs. The study is designed to measure general attitudes and values concerning Mexico's relationship with the world rather than opinions on specific foreign policies or issues. This year's survey was conducted in cooperation with The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations' (CCFR) 2004 study of American public and leadership opinion on foreign policy, a periodic survey conducted since 1974.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Central America, and Mexico

4218. Mexican Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

Author:
Guadalupe Gonzalez (ed), Susan Minushikin (ed), and Robert Y. Shapiro (ed)
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The 2004 Mexico and the World survey, conducted by Centro de InvestigaciÓn y Docencia EconÓmicas (CIDE) and Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI), is the first-ever comprehensive study of Mexican public and leadership opinion on international affairs. The study is designed to measure general attitudes and values concerning Mexico's relationship with the world rather than opinions on specific foreign policies or issues. This year's survey was conducted in cooperation with The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations' (CCFR) 2004 study of American public and leadership opinion on foreign policy, a periodic survey conducted since 1974.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
America, Central America, and Mexico

4219. U.S. Military Concepts of War and their Impact on Foreign Interventions

Author:
Charles W. Parker III
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This essay argues that military doctrine shapes the nature of United States foreign interventions. In particular, the U.S. military's concepts of “war” and “Military Operations Other Than War” (MOOTW), and the resulting institutional orientation of the Pentagon towards such contingencies, have had a profound impact on the planning and execution of contingencies around the world since the U.S. became a great power. Before World War II, MOOTW-like military interventions were commonplace and mostly successful in the conduct of U.S. foreign policy. Most military interventions such as the Philippines War of 1899-1901 and in the Caribbean (Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Panama, Nicaragua) between 1899 and 1941 were successful limited campaigns that helped consolidate the United States as a regional and global power. U.S. military doctrine and capabilities in counterinsurgency, peace enforcement, and foreign internal defense, were robust. This core competency of the U.S. military was lost in the large scale and conventional struggles against the Axis powers and later the Soviet Union.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:
United States, Soviet Union, Cuba, Central America, Nicaragua, Haiti, and Dominican Republic

4220. The U.S. National Security Strategy and the Global War on Terror “Force Multiplier”

Author:
Charles W. Parker III
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
In September 2002, President George W. Bush published a new National Security Strategy (NSS) in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks in the United States homeland. The publication of the new NSS represented a codification of a series of policy ideas that had been brewing since the end of the first Bush Administration and throughout the Clinton Administration, which were sharpened as a result of the newly perceived threats to the United States' security posture. Some prominent academics have argued that the NSS and Bush's actions represent a “neoimperialist” or “unilateralist” approach to the conduct of U.S. foreign relations, and are a radical and fundamental shift in the trajectory of U.S. power projection and assertiveness. They also lament a rift in relations with European allies in part due to this new policy trajectory, to the point of declaring that the Europe and the United States will be future rivals on the world stage.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Europe