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4142. Dueling with Uncertainty: The New Logic of American Military Planning
- Author:
- Carl Conetta and Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 02-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Examines how the new planning concepts and methods adopted by the Pentagon since 1992 have led to military requirements disproportionate to real threats and have supported overweening ambitions for the application of military power. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as “Inventing Threats.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
4143. The U.K. and Japan
- Author:
- Haruko Satoh
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Among the now G–8 countries, perhaps the most stable political relationship in the past decade or so has been between Britain and Japan. While the two countries do not necessarily rank high in each other's foreign policy priorities, their leaders have always made sure publicly to endorse the growing ties in strong and positive language. Prime Minister Tony Blair used the occasion of his official visit to Tokyo this January to echo Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's own positive views of the relationship, expressed to Blair at the G–8 summit in Denver. To Hashimoto's 'Britain is a special partner to Japan', Blair confirmed that UK–Japan relations were 'as strong as ever', in line with the remarks of his predecessors, which had ranged from a 'dynamic, plain-speaking partnership', 'strategic partnership' in the post-Cold War era, to 'natural partnership'. Furthermore, compared with Japan's relations with other major European states, specifically France and Germany, the contours of UK–Japan relations seem to stand out more. There is a strong economic relationship between the two. The UK–Japan Action Agenda of September 1996 was the first of its kind to be agreed between Japan and a European state, reflecting Britain's resolve to be the 'outward looking' member in the EU, and to keep ahead in the primarily economic competition for Japanese interest in Europe. Cooperation between the two countries has been credited as the key to success in some post-Cold War multilateral agreements, such as the UN arms register or the recent Kyoto conference on global warming, here reflecting the scope of official cooperation between the two governments. This track record supports the leaders' claims that Britain and Japan are special partners. Nevertheless, there is a sense that the relationship is still bound in the realm of political rhetoric. Neither the positive language nor the track record of achievements can dispel the perception that Europe—Japan relations are the weakest in the trilateral world of Europe, Japan and the United States. The Hague Declaration of 1991 — a document outlining further commitment to cooperation between Japan and the EU — the UK–Japan Action agenda, and the subsequent similar documents between Japan and France or Germany, have only received cursory attention. 2 While UK–Japan relations may be the key to genuinely strengthening Europe—Japan ties, there are issues that need to be addressed to promote further progress.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Netherlands
4144. Doing Democracy A Disservice: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The stakes in Bosnia's forthcoming elections, the fifth internationally-supervised poll since the end of the war, could not be higher, for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) and also for the international community. Having invested enormous financial and political capital in the peace process, the international community expects a return on its investment. That is why leading international figures including US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have entered the Bosnian political fray, urging Bosnians to back parties which "support Dayton" and threatening to withdraw aid if they do not. The elections will bring some changes so the event will be hailed as a triumph. However, they will not lay the ground for a self-sustaining peace process. That can only be achieved by political reform and, in particular, a redesign of the electoral system to guarantee Bosnians ethnic security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
4145. Third Party Arms Transfers: Requirements for the 21st Century
- Author:
- John D. Macomber and Charles McC. Mathias
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Can the United States collaborate with foreign nations in armaments development and production without jeopardizing US national security? This question - in light of America's global security obligations - demands a satisfactory answer. The economic and political advantages of greater international cooperation are significant. Benefits from cooperation include improved interoperability of weapons and equipment used by US allies and partners in operations with the United States, reduction in production costs, and preservation of a defense industrial base among US allies. Yet, considerations of national security are equally cogent.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
4146. De Gaulle and Europe: Historical Revision and Social Science Theory
- Author:
- Andrew Moravcsik
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The thousands of books and articles on Charles de Gaulle's policy toward European integration, whether written by historians, political scientists, or commentators, universally accord primary explanatory importance to the General's distinctive geopolitical ideology. In explaining his motivations, only secondary significance, if any at all, is attached to commercial considerations. This paper seeks to reverse this historiographical consensus by the four major decisions toward European integration taken under de Gaulle's Presidency: the decisions to remain in the Common Market in 1958, to propose the Fouchet Plan in the early 1960s, to veto British accession to the EC, and to provoke the “empty chair” crisis in 1965-1966, resulting in “Luxembourg Compromise.” In each case, the overwhelming bulk of the primary evidence—speeches, memoirs, or government documents—suggests that de Gaulle's primary motivation was economic, not geopolitical or ideological. Like his predecessors and successors, de Gaulle sought to promote French industry and agriculture by establishing protected markets for their export products. This empirical finding has three broader implications: (1) For those interested in the European Union, it suggests that regional integration has been driven primarily by economic, not geopolitical considerations—even in the “least likely” case. (2) For those interested in the role of ideas in foreign policy, it suggests that strong interest groups in a democracy limit the impact of a leader's geopolitical ideology—even where the executive has very broad institutional autonomy. De Gaulle was a democratic statesman first and an ideological visionary second. (3) For those who employ qualitative case-study methods, it suggests that even a broad, representative sample of secondary sources does not create a firm basis for causal inference. For political scientists, as for historians, there is in many cases no reliable alternative to primary-source research.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Organization, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
4147. Environmentalism, Free Trade and Regionalism in Theoretical Perspective: An Unholy Developmental Trinity?
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Why do policy outcomes invariably fall short of expectations? Almost all studies of this puzzling topic over the last generation have revolved around a study of the limits of rational behavior. Although this literature is extraordinarily enriching, as society becomes more complex, the gap between policy intentions and outcomes seems to be widening, and constrained rational behavior appears to be accounting for increasingly less of that gap. Three incompatible policy areas today are environmentalism, free trade, and regionalism. This investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of the principles and key dimensions of those three policy areas, then transforms Benjamin Cohen's unholy monetary trinity into an unholy developmental trinity to offer a theoretical framework within which this incompatible policy-mix may be explained.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
4148. Forever in the Shadow of Churchill?: Britain and the Memory of World War Two at the End of the Twentieth Century
- Author:
- Nile Gardiner
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Security Studies at Yale University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines recent debates in Britain surrounding the memory of the Second World War. Part one is an examination of the controversy sparked by the publication in 1993 of John Charmley's Churchill: The End of Glory, and Alan Clark's article in The Times, “A Reputation Ripe for Revision?”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe
4149. Saudi Arabia in the 1990s: Stability and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Mordechai Abir
- Publication Date:
- 09-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Saudi Arabia
4150. The Viability of U.S. Security Strategy Toward the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- William J. Taylor, Jr. and Abraham Kim
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The end of the cold war resulted in a mixed bag of challenges in the Northeast Asia region. The Soviet threat is gone, but the danger of regional instability is not. Lingering conflicts, old rivalries, and security challenges pose an uncertain future for the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. military presence still remains an important stabilizer in the region. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry stated: "It is [the U.S. military] presence that the countries of the [Asia-Pacific] region consider a critical variable in the East Asia security equation.... [and] the most important factor in guaranteeing stability and peace."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Korea, and North Korea
4151. Time to Reinvent APEC
- Author:
- Edward Lincoln and Kenneth Flamm
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
4152. Globaphobia: The Wrong Debate Over Trade Policy
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence and Robert E. Litan
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The outcome of the fast-track debate that opened this month will determine whether the United States continues to lead the world toward a more open global economy or whether, for the first time since the end of World War II, it sends the opposite message.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
4153. Landmines: Africa's Stake, Global Initiatives
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- The momentum for a comprehensive global ban on anti-personnel landmines is growing rapidly, and 1997 is a particularly decisive year. Africa is the most heavily mined continent, and African governments and non-governmental landmine campaigns are taking an increasingly prominent role in the global effort. The South African and Mozambican governments both announced comprehensive bans in February 1997, just as the 4th International NGO Conference on Landmines was convening in Maputo, Mozambique. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is being urged to quickly declare Southern Africa a mine-free zone, and non-governmental campaigns are gathering steam in many other African countries.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
4154. Making Connections for Africa: Constituencies, Movements, Interest Groups, Coalitions, and Conventional Wisdoms
- Author:
- William Minter
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- This paper was prepared by APIC Senior Research Fellow William Minter for the Constituency Builders' Dialogue organized by the Africa Policy Information Center, held at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia, over the weekend of January 10-12, 1997. The Dialogue was designed as an opportunity for a diverse group of activists from different sectors of Africa advocacy work in the United States to step back, reflect and engage in dialogue on the strategic directions for grassroots Africa constituency-building in the current period. The Dialogue was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and by ongoing support from the Ford Foundation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and New York
4155. Future Prospects for the U.S. Defense Budget and Their Implications for Our Asian Alliance Commitments
- Author:
- Andrew Krepinevich
- Publication Date:
- 08-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
4156. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
4157. Time to End the Certification Circus
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
4158. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America
4159. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
4160. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico