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4141. Colombia at the Crossroads

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring session of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of strategic surprise in Colombia. After a presentation on four potential scenarios that may face Colombia (see next page), Schlesinger Working Group core members and Colombia specialists examined the key factors driving events in this conflict-scarred country, as well as possible outcomes for current political initiatives. Among other issues, the participants touched on the range and dynamics of the present conflict, its effects on Colombian institutions, the country's neighbors, as well as on the role of powerful outside players, primarily the United States. Upon defining these key factors, participants identified a broad outline for future policy towards Colombia, which would safeguard key U.S. interests, defined as an end to the conflict, political and economic stability in the region, and the suppression of the drug trade. The following report is based on the informal and general findings of the group and is therefore not a consensus document.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

4142. Public Opinion As A Constraint On U.S. Foreign Policy: Assessing The Perceived Value Of American And Foreign Lives

Author:
John Mueller
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Although Americans are extremely sensitive to American casualties, they seem to be remarkably insensitive to casualties suffered by foreigners including essentially uninvolved—that is, innocent—civilians. Several conclusions emerge from an examination of all the cases in which American troops have been deployed on a non-advisory basis since 1941 in situations that were actually or potentially dangerous.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and America

4143. Report on IRFA and Annual Report on International Religious Freedom

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
One of the guiding purposes and principles behind the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) is to make the issue of international religious freedom an integral part of this nation's foreign policy agenda. The conditions of religious freedom in certain countries may be grave and deteriorating—in many instances on account of factors beyond the control of the United States—but not, if the IRFA process is working properly and vigorously, on account of a lack of attention paid to the issue as a matter of U.S. foreign policy. This report of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom assesses the vitality and effectiveness of certain parts of the IRFA process as it is functioning in its second year.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States

4144. East Asia and the United States: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress held a one-day unclassified conference on this topic on 17 February 2000, at the Thomas Jefferson Building of the Library of Congress. Seven papers by nongovernment specialists and 11 commentaries by Intelligence Community specialists examined: The likely development of greater divergence or convergence between key East Asian states and the United States over US policies and interests in the region. Whether divergence or convergence between East Asian states and the United States was more likely on security, economic, or political/values questions. In what ways East Asian states would be likely to collaborate in opposition to US policies and interests. Sixty US Intelligence Community, other Executive Branch, congressional, and nongovernment experts participated actively in discussions following the formal papers and commentaries, reinforcing the findings presented below.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States and East Asia

4145. Battling International Bribery 2000

Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Bribery of foreign public officials by businesses is a serious problem in the international marketplace. This corrupt practice penalizes firms that play by the rules and compete on the merits of their products and services. But the damage is not limited to billions of dollars of lost exports. Bribery of public officials in commercial dealings undermines good governance, retards economic development and is especially damaging to developing countries and those in transition to market economies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

4146. Prospects for WTO Trade Negotiations After Seattle: Foreign Strategies and Perspectives

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In a recent conference, trade experts identified three primary reasons the World Trade Organization (WTO) failed to launch a new trade Round at its December 1999 Ministerial. First, leading members were unable to resolve differences on critical issues prior to the gathering. In addition, many developing countries and nongovernmental organizations were more assertive than they had been at previous conferences. Finally, in recent years, the WTO has expanded the range of issues it addresses, which has made efforts to reach a consensus on any point more difficult. According to the speakers, as a result of the acrimonious Ministerial, the WTO has suffered a substantial loss of credibility, which will impair efforts to launch a new Round in the near term. There is no immediate alternative to strong US leadership, and WTO negotiations will be more complicated because developing countries and nongovernmental organizations will be more inclined to resist trade liberalization efforts that they believe do not advance their interests. Experts at the conference offered a variety of assessments regarding the course the WTO might choose to follow this year. The majority argued that if the trade body is seeking to rebuild confidence, it could continue with scheduled meetings on agriculture and services and use the time to rebuild confidence. A minority, however, held that the forum is too fractured to make progress, thus talks would only undermine the already declining prestige of the trade body. The experts identified several long-run challenges that the WTO will probably need to address to be an effective decisionmaking institution, including: Bridging the developed-developing country gap Costa Rica, Mexico, and South Africa generally support trade liberalization and have credibility among developed and developing states; thus they are in a position to meld the interests of the two sides. Enacting institutional reforms The organization's expansive agenda and large membership require that it adopt policies that facilitate decisionmaking, especially before new members such as China and Russia join. The trade body may try to increase transparency to promote greater trust in its procedures. Also, to avoid protracted and bitter selections such as the forum suffered last year, the WTO could review its procedures for electing a new director general. Managing the backlash against globalization Supporters of freer trade could launch a massive educational program to highlight the gains for all countries from expanded trade and to counter the dire assertions made by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia and China

4147. First Annual Report

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This is the first report of the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (Commission), created by the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). IRFA established a multi-faceted program for ensuring that religious freedom has a permanent and significant place in the formulation and application of U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States

4148. Indonesian Democratic Transition: Implications for United States Policy

Author:
James J. Przystup, Ronald N. Montaperto, Gerald W. Faber, and Adam Schwarz
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The onset of the Asian economic crisis in May 1997 assured the end of the tottering "New Order" regime of President Suharto. Economic collapse re-energized social and political grievances long muted by the cumulative effects of steady economic growth and political repression. In May 1998, the discredited Suharto regime collapsed. In June 1999, democratic elections led to the formation of a reform government led by President Abdurrahman Wahid.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Democratization
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

4149. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein: The Policy Debate

Author:
Max Singer
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, has biological weapons capable of killing hundreds of thousands of Israelis with infectious diseases such as anthrax. These weapons could be delivered either by missiles, by small pilotless planes, or by infecting the passengers of a plane landing at Ben-Gurion Airport with less than an ounce of agent spread through the plane's air conditioning system. Saddam also has at least several nuclear weapons that are missing only highly enriched uranium which he is likely to be able either to make himself or to buy this year.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

4150. Preventing a Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia

Author:
David Cortright and Samina Ahmed
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The United States must unequivocally demand that India and Pakistan join the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear weapon states. The United States should retain punitive sanctions which target Indian and Pakistani institutions and policymakers responsible for their nuclear weapons programs. Targeted incentives should be provided that seek to diminish internal support for nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. The United States should fulfill its obligation under Article VI of the NPT to achieve global nuclear disarmament.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States and South Asia

4151. Foreign Ownership, R, and Technology Sourcing

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper explores the relationship between domestic R and the inflow of foreign capital through foreign direct investment and foreign ownership. The idea that firms invest in a foreign country in order to more easily absorb the knowledge and technology of foreign firms is tested empirically using a unique firm level data set covering foreign ownership and R for all Norwegian firms over the period 1990 to 1996. The study gives no clear evidence supporting the existence of such a motive behind foreign ownership. On the other hand, the econometric study indicates that foreign investors may try to exploit their technological advantages in the Norwegian market. The results also show that the degree of foreign ownership is more volatile when firms are highly R intensive. We hypothesize that this is due to the fact that large R investments often result in large losses as well as gains to the firms.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

4152. European Union — Sanctions against Austria lifted

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The decision last week to lift political sanctions against Austria came as a relief to both Vienna and most of the fourteen EU member states participating in the action. Imposed in protest at the inclusion in government of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), the sanctions had rapidly became a source of difficulty and embarrassment. Crucially, nobody had been clear about what the precise aims were, or in what circumstances the sanctions would be suspended: there was no exit strategy for either side.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Austria, and Vienna

4153. Russia — Intelligence Influence

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The recent increase in arrests on espionage charges and expansion of activity by Russia's security and intelligence agencies appears to be signalling a reversion to aggressive Cold War tactics. They are seeking to increase their political influence and appear to be testing the limits of the 'civilised' intelligence competition which has evolved in the last decade. While Moscow has the means and apparent will to intensify intelligence competition, its clumsy and outdated methods threaten the country's commercial interests and could harm broader foreign policy goals.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia

4154. The Great Game, Round 2: Washington's Misguided Support for the Baku-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline

Author:
Stanley Kober
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
One of the top foreign policy priorities of the Clinton administration during the last few years has been strong support for building a pipeline to transport oil from Baku, Azerbaijan, to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The administration has argued that this pipeline, bypassing other routes going through Russia and Iran, would be the best way for the economically struggling countries of Central Asia to get their energy exports to market, thereby underpinning their newly won independence. Washington also stresses the supposed benefit of having the pipeline run through the territory of a NATO ally, Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Baku

4155. Korean Détente: A Threat to Washington's Anachronistic Military Presence?

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The recent summit meeting between South Korean president Kim Dae Jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il raises the prospect that the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula may at last be coming to an end. Although the latest effort at détente could ultimately abort as did similar initiatives in the 1970s and early 1990s, North Korea's dire economic straits probably leave the Stalinist state little choice this time but to open itself to the outside world and seek trade and investment from its prosperous, democratic South Korean rival.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Israel, Asia, South Korea, Latin America, and Korean Peninsula

4156. Arrogance of Power Reborn: The Imperial Presidency and Foreign Policy in the Clinton Years

Author:
Gene Healy
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In his classic 1973 book The Imperial Presidency, historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. warned that the American political system was threatened by “a conception of presidential power so spacious and peremptory as to imply a radical transformation of the traditional polity.” America's rise to global dominance and Cold War leadership, Schlesinger explained, had dangerously concentrated power in the presidency, transforming the Framers' energetic but constitutionally constrained chief executive into a sort of elected emperor with virtually unchecked authority in the international arena.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

4157. A Foreign Policy Report Card on the Clinton-Gore Administration

Author:
Jonathan G. Clarke
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The foreign policy record of the Clinton-Gore administration deserves a less than stellar grade. At the end of the Cold War, there was an extraordinary opportunity to build a new relationship with a democratic Russia; restructure U.S. security policy in both Europe and East Asia to reduce America's burdens and risk exposure; and revisit intractable Cold War–era problems, such as the frosty relations with Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea. The administration's performance must be judged within the context of such an unprecedented opportunity for constructive change.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, Asia, North Korea, and Vietnam

4158. India as a World Power: Changing Washington's Myopic Policy

Author:
Victor M. Gobarev
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
American interest in and concerns about India rose sharply after that country carried out underground nuclear tests in May 1998. Clinton administration officials belatedly acknowledged that developing a good working relationship with India should be one of America's top foreign policy priorities. President Clinton's visit to South Asia in March 2000 was an important symbolic step.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, America, South Asia, Washington, and India

4159. Let's Make National Missile Defense Truly "National"

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Not all proposals for deploying a national missile defense live up to their name. Many are for “international” missile defense systems that would also defend U.S. allies and “friends,” even though they are wealthy enough to build their own missile defenses. For example, some policymakers and analysts on both the left and the right advocate sea-based missile defense as a substitute for the Clinton administration's limited land-based system, which is designed to protect only the territory of the United States. Conservatives would like to build a more comprehensive, layered defense consisting of sea- and space-based weapons or land-, sea-, and space-based weapons. George W. Bush, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, is clear that he wants a comprehensive defense to defend U.S. allies and seems to favor the latter approach.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

4160. Dubious Anniversary: Kosovo One Year Later

Author:
Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
One year after NATO ended its bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, the Clinton administration's Kosovo policy is a conspicuous failure. Kosovo is now the scene of a brutal ethnic cleansing campaign carried out by NATO's erstwhile de facto ally, the Kosovo Liberation Army, an organization profoundly inimical to America's interests and professed values. The KLA is also currently fomenting an insurgency elsewhere in Serbia, which promises to destabilize the Balkans even further.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Genocide
Political Geography:
United States, America, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans