Topic: Foreign Policy - CIAO Search Results

1. Empire Salon | William Smith | Oct 14 2020

Author:: William Smith
Publication Date:: 12-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:: William Smith, a distinguished former student of Committee Board member Claes Ryn, has written an insightful book on the realistic and restrained foreign policy tradition of the United States. Smith highlights the great Harvard scholar, Irving Babbitt, with his clear understanding of the crooked timber of man -- especially when acting collectively -- which reduces moral inhibitions against violence. James Madison explained in Federalist 55, “Had every Athenian citizen been a Socrates; every Athenian assembly would still have been a mob.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

2. After Ukraine: Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya and Matt Tavares
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy. Russia’s position in the Middle East has faced major setbacks in recent years, including the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the weakening of Iran and its proxies, and the toll from Moscow's unending war of choice in Ukraine. But reports of a Russian retreat from the region are premature. Alongside traditional defense and economic relationships with Algeria, Egypt, and Iraq, Moscow has cultivated ties with a host of other countries—U.S. adversaries and allies alike. With Iran, it has reportedly begun assembling Su-35 fighters as part of a $6.5 billion deal that would boost the regime’s air force. With the United Arab Emirates, an American ally, Russia’s non-oil trade grew to $11.5 billion as of 2024. And in Syria, Russia’s pre-revolution military bases remain in place, while an October meeting between Presidents Putin and Sharaa indicated a cooperative spirit. In this comprehensive Policy Note, experts Anna Borshchevskaya and Matt Tavares argue that Russia is poised for a resurgence in the Middle East, especially once the war in Ukraine ends—a point they also make clear in a hard-hitting op-ed published in the National Interest. Washington, they argue, must recognize the multiple threats this would present to U.S. interests in the region and develop a vigorous counterstrategy in response—one that includes empowering Ukrainian commercial interests, refining sanctions policy, and rebutting Russian propaganda in real-time.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Iran, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

3. Prospects for Syria-Israel Relations

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel may believe the tense status quo is sustainable, but Washington is frustrated about the potential implications for Arab normalization, Turkish military friction, and near-term economic plans.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

4. Russia Leverages Venezuela to Expand Influence in Western Hemisphere

Author:: Sergey Sukhankin
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Moscow has condemned the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro while avoiding substantive retaliation, demonstrating both symbolic solidarity and an unwillingness to jeopardize relations with Washington. The Kremlin’s relationship with Venezuela enables Moscow to project power beyond Cuba in the Western Hemisphere, access Venezuela’s oil reserves, and cultivate an alliance aligned with an anti-Western agenda. Russian energy firms have gained oil stakes and repayment-in-kind options for investments in Venezuela, while joint financial ventures and Venezuela’s crypto experiments have served as testing grounds for sanctions-evasion mechanisms later adapted by Russia. Arms transfers, military-industrial collaboration, and media partnerships through RT, Sputnik, and TeleSur expanded Russia’s military footprint and narrative reach in the Western Hemisphere, though the financial return on Russian investments remains limited and challenged by U.S. pushback.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Oil, Bilateral Relations, and Power Projection
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

5. Russia–Azerbaijan Relations Remain in State of Limbo

Author:: Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s decision to skip Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eurasian Economic Council meetings in December 2025 signaled renewed strain with Moscow, surprising observers who believed the October 2025 Dushanbe summit had stabilized relations after the December 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) crash. Tensions resurfaced after Azerbaijan learned Russia had closed the crash’s criminal investigation, which contradicted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Dushanbe assurances of missile-related responsibility, legal accountability, and compensation, instead attributing the crash to weather and pilot error. Conflicting Russian narratives and public criticism in Azerbaijan highlight a widening gap between Moscow’s political statements and legal actions, leaving normalization stalled and Russia–Azerbaijan relations suspended in distrust rather than reconciliation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan

6. Venezuela: The Emperor Has No Clothes

Author:: Anil Anand
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:: America’s attack on Venezuela—alongside threats to annex Greenland, incorporate Canada as its 51st state, attack Colombia, or seize control of the Panama Canal—raises existential concerns about America’s commitment to a rule-based order and the legitimacy of the prevailing system for global governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Order, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

7. Türkiye as a Cusp State: Conceptualization and Implementation

Author:: Meliha Benli Altunışık
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article revisits the concept of the “Cusp State” with a specific focus on Türkiye, aiming to deepen both its theoretical and empirical relevance. It begins by re-examining the definitional foundations of the concept, which refers to states situated at the intersection of regional and global dynamics, exhibiting hybrid characteristics and adaptive foreign policy behaviors. The article argues that the Cusp State framework offers a valuable lens for analyzing Türkiye’s foreign policy, particularly due to its blend of ideational and material factors and its geostrategic positioning. The analysis explores how Türkiye navigates its cuspness by employing region-building strategies, enhancing connectivity, and repositioning itself within global hierarchies. The article also investigates the limitations and contradictions inherent in these strategies, including domestic-international linkages, geopolitical constraints, and normative tensions. In doing so, it demonstrates that Türkiye's trajectory exemplifies the dynamic nature of cuspness—not merely as a structural condition but as a set of evolving practices shaped by agency and context. Ultimately, the article contributes to the literature by refining the Cusp State concept and offering empirical insights into Türkiye’s foreign policy conduct in a rapidly shifting international environment.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regionalism, and Connectivity
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

8. From Bridge to Hinge: Rapprochement-Estrangement Pendulum of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The main motivation of this paper is to uncover the logic underlying the seemingly inconsistent and erratic foreign policy behavior of countries like Turkey, which are surrounded by different subsystems. The strategic cultures of the surrounding subsystems impose different modes of behavior on borderlands and create attract-repel elements for them. The responses to such elements appear as policies of rapprochement and estrangement, representing closer or cooling relations. Therefore, as part of the attract-repel dynamic, foreign policy behavior appears to oscillate between conflicting extremes. Consequently, the borderland position presents a combination of challenges and opportunities, depending on the comprehensive national power. It can be either reduced to a buffer zone caught between different and imposing entities, or transformed into a hinge state that can change regional or global balances. The underlying logic and ultimate goal of such policy swings, which may appear contradictory and erratic at times, is to become a hinge state in this process by capitalizing on advantages and opportunities, avoiding drawbacks and gaining more power at each step. In this process, Turkey appears as a borderland country that keeps moving between pivotal and linchpin positions, trying to confirm her linchpin status while aspiring to become a hinge state.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Borders, Rapprochement, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

9. Perception and Continuity: Active Non-Alignment in Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Burak Çakirca
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This study analyses Turkish foreign policy between 2010 and 2025, asking whether this period marks a strategic rupture or reflects continuity with the long-standing Westernisation trajectory. Employing the emerging framework of Active Non-Alignment (ANA), the study examines how Turkey’s redefinition of strategic interests and alignments reflects shifting global and regional dynamics. The findings suggest that while institutional and ontological ties to the West persist, Turkish foreign policy demonstrates a perceptual shift characterised by strategic autonomy, diversified partnerships, and issue-based pragmatism. By applying ANA to this evolving policy orientation, the study offers both a reinterpretation of Turkish foreign policy continuity and a theoretical contribution to the emerging literature on alternative alignment strategies in global politics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Diversification, Strategic Autonomy, Pragmatism, Continuity, and Westernization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

10. A pivot or a saga? How Turkish foreign policy is torn between domestic pressures and economic needs

Author:: Başak Alpan
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU must take proactive steps to address longstanding issues and cultivate a more trust-based and cooperative relationship with Turkey. Bilateral relations could be rejuvenated by addressing key issues such as democratic reforms, visa liberalisation, civil society engagement and the ongoing dispute over Cyprus. This CEPS Explainer explores the recent orientation of the Turkish foreign policy, focusing on its historical Western orientation and recent efforts to achieve ‘strategic autonomy’ by scrutinising the results of the fieldwork undertaken through the CATS Network project. Interviews conducted in Ankara, Istanbul and Brussels show that while Turkish policymakers aim to diversify the country’s foreign policy by forging security and economic partnerships with non-Western actors, such as the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China and Russia, its institutional and ideological foundation remains Western-oriented. Integrating Turkey into European security alignments, such as the SAFE framework, and modernising the Turkey-EU customs union would help to strengthen bilateral ties. Additionally, the EU should substantiate the people-to-people contact approach to rebuild trust and encourage further cooperation.
Topic:: European Union, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Civil Society, Partnerships, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Europe

11. Restraint and Diplomacy in Arctic Policy: Cooperation Amid U.S.-Russia-China Tensions

Author:: Pavel Devyatkin
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: In recent years, the Arctic has become the site of both great-power cooperation and competition. While the 2025 Alaska summit between Presidents Putin and Trump reflected a thaw in U.S.–Russia relations, U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland has cast doubt on continued U.S. cooperation with both Russia and China in the region. This brief details how a combination of restraint and proactive diplomacy in the Arctic — built upon shared interests and a recognition of competitive coexistence — will best serve the United States. The second Trump administration has called for American Arctic dominance, viewing the region as an energy source and as an opportunity to monopolize resources and to establish its Western Hemisphere force posture. Russia views the Arctic through a similar lens of resources and sovereignty, as it ramps up its military presence while intensifying efforts to extract natural resources. China’s influence in the region has steadily increased, as it collaborates with Russia, while advancing scientific research, sustainable development, and multilateral climate cooperation. The United States has come to see increasing Russia–China collaboration in the Arctic as a threat to U.S. national interests. But rather than responding to this deepening relationship through unilateralism, the U.S. should recognize that competitive coexistence and trilateral cooperation are more beneficial. This approach avoids zero-sum confrontation and minimizes accidental escalation while maintaining U.S. force projection, maximizing resource extraction, and promoting scientific collaboration. Toward this end, this brief recommends that the Trump administration: Establish trilateral maritime safety and search-and-rescue, SAR, operations, a system that exchanges real-time information, conducts joint training exercises, and invests in port and coast guard infrastructure. Such cooperation would lower shipping costs, improve safety, and encourage economic development — goals shared by the United States, Russia, and China. Institutionalize direct, reliable U.S.–Russia–China communication channels, including a dedicated Arctic hotline for incident reporting and a security digital platform for real-time vessel tracking. Such transparency minimizes the chances of miscalculation, particularly with nuclear assets in the region. Revitalize the Arctic Council to enable communication among the three major powers, the eight Arctic states, and Indigenous representatives. Initiate a trilateral arms control framework, using reductions in Arctic military exercises as a springboard for broader arms control and security arrangements.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Strategic Competition, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

12. Conceptualizing Compartmentalization in International Relations: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Şaban Kardaş and Bayram Sinkaya
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: How do we conceptualize compartmentalization as a foreign policy behavior? This paper will argue that compartmentalization is a practical and cognitive approach to foreign policy decision-making and behavior at times of contradictory pressures arising from domestic or external realities, when actors need to make stark choices between different alternatives. Having delineated the boundaries of this concept, the article will engage in an extensive review of the literature employing the concept of compartmentalization in the study of Turkish foreign policy. It will trace how Turkish foreign policy conduct increasingly adopted this behavior in at least two distinct forms: issue-based and actor-based. The paper will argue that the widening scope of this practical-cognitive behavior is a result of a number of systemic and domestic-state level factors, which are closely related to the evolution of Türkiye’s domestic realities and international positioning against the background of a changing international system. Moreover, the paper will argue that at the individual-ideational level as well, compartmentalization has been part of a set of cognitive priors which affect the Turkish foreign policy makers’ formulation of alternative foreign policy strategies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Compartmentalization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

13. Hacia la Ley de Chips 2.0

Author:: Emilio García García
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: En este documento elaborado por Emilio García García se aborda la revisión de la Ley de Chips de la UE, que tuvo su origen en la crisis de la cadena de suministros posterior a los confinamientos para contener la pandemia de la COVID-19. La Comisión Europea ha acelerado su proceso de revisión junto con la globalidad de la estrategia de semiconductores comunitaria. En un escenario de inestabilidad geopolítica, el ejecutivo de la UE ha señalado la industria de semiconductores como una de las claves de la soberanía tecnológica del Viejo Continente, motivando así la urgencia del proceso. La ya denominada Ley de Chips 2.0 debe tener en cuenta los éxitos y fracasos de la estrategia actual, así como los cambios geopolíticos y del entorno tecnológico y de mercado. Se presenta en el documento un resumen de estas circunstancias y recomendaciones para la próxima revisión de la norma. Si bien destacamos la importancia de la nueva Ley, la nueva política industrial y comercial europea para semiconductores debe trascender el marco de una directiva o reglamento, y la implementación de las recomendaciones de la sección final requiere cambios en otros instrumentos de la UE y nuevas herramientas.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Law, European Union, Geopolitics, Political Science, Public Policy, and CHIPS
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

14. Turkey–Israel Relations: Strategic Context and Policy Considerations

Author:: Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Between Ankara’s regional ambition, ideological and religious zeal, and economic vulnerability—implications for Israel’s security and diplomacy
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15. As Erdogan Tightens His Grip on Syria, What Can Israel Do?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Following the agreement between the al-Sharaa regime and the Kurds, the consolidation of Turkish influence in Syria presents strategic dilemmas for Israel
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

16. Netanyahu’s Long Game to Reorder the Middle East

Author:: Akram Zaoui
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the inspirator of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Netanyahu’s actions must be read through decades of political action. US participation in the war marks the apex of years of manoeuvring in Washington to reshape the region. Goals sought include obliteration of regional strategic threats and normalisation with Arab countries from a position of undisputable strength.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Normalization, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

17. Deconstructing Kosovo's relations with Turkiye - Between Reality and Expectations

Author:: Asllan Zenunaj
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolution of relations between Kosovo and Türkiye from Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 to 2025, with a specific focus on the security dimension of this partnership. Its central aim is to analyse how Türkiye’s foreign policy tools and priorities toward Kosovo have evolved under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and how these changes are perceived domestically in Kosovo, particularly in light of Kosovo’s stated Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The analysis reveal change and continuities in Türkiye’s engagement, complementing an early emphasis on historical, religious and cultural narratives associated with “Neo-Ottomanism” to a more pragmatic “Erdoganism”, an interest-driven approach, particularly evident after 2022. The initial engagement under the AKP was heavily heavily influenced by Ahmet Davutoğlu's “Strategic Depth” doctrine, which emphasized soft power, shared heritage, and a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. This included religious diplomacy through institutions like the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs) and TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), which promoted a shared Sunni-Hanafi Islamic identity and renovated Ottoman-era heritage sites. The paper argues this has complimented by a more assertive “Erdoganism”, which combines strategic depth with hard-power tools, particularly economic and defense cooperation, where Türkiye has become a crucial partner in modernizing the Kosovo Security Force through the provision of advanced military hardware and joint industrial projects. Additionally, Türkiye’s command of KFOR in 2023 and 2025 underscores its central position in regional security underlying the strong coordination between the bilateral agreements within the spirit of NATO’s formal structure and coordination with key allies like the United States. The paper also finds out that the Strategic partnership between Türkiye and Kosovo can be seen as exceeding its line between cooperation and interference in Kosovo’s domestic affairs, nevertheless these perceptions often derive from the misconceptions regarding the excessive use of Ankara’s soft-power tools. Henceforth, although Türkiye has sought to shape the country’s cultural narratives and public discourse, leveraging historical memory and kinship ties to project influence within local institutions and communities, there is a notable divergence between public perception and strategic reality. While an overwhelming 91% of Kosovars view Türkiye favorably, strategic allegiance remains firmly with the United States, indicating that popular support is emotive and pragmatic rather than an ideological endorsement of Türkiye’s political model. The paper recommends that Kosovo navigate this complex dynamic by supporting the transition from personalized “brotherhood diplomacy” toward a more structured, transparent, and institutionalized state‑to‑state partnership, one that avoids political interference on either side, remains embedded within NATO‑compatible frameworks, and is clearly communicated as complementary to Kosovo’s Euro‑Atlantic integration. Such an approach would allow Kosovo to maximize the benefits of its partnership with Türkiye while safeguarding its secular, independent, and democratic principles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

18. Letter from Joseon to Korea: International Politics of the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Muhammad Eren Yıldırım
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: South Korea has indispensable military relations with the United States (US), especially in the context of its hostile relations with North Korea. In addition, China’s giant economic power makes South Korea reluctant to abandon its relations with China. Yet another significant factor complicating the regional dynamics for South Korea is the unresolved historical issues inherited from the imperial exploitation by the Japanese Empire on the Korean peninsula. This book aims to replace the narrative of South Korea’s as an “agent” in the global arena, considering its historical values and above-mentioned transforming conditions, with a multifaceted approach called “strategic pragmatism.” The author asks the following questions: what resources does South Korea have in its foreign policy-making processes?, what is its strategy based on these resources?, and what are the sources of the fundamental beliefs that construct the policymakers’ perception of South Korea’s foreign policy strategy?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Book Review, Regional Politics, and Strategic Pragmatism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

19. Power of Bonding and Non-Western Emerging Great Powers Engagement: Comparing China and India’s Soft Power Strategy in Pakistan

Author:: Abdur Rahman Fuad
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Power of Bonding and Non-Western Emerging Great Powers Engagement: Comparing China and India’s Soft Power Strategy in Pakistan by Md. Nazmul Islam is a scholarly exploration that pioneers new perspectives in International Relations. It offers a unique and fresh insight into how non-Western emerging great powers, specifically China and India, utilize soft power strategies to engage with Pakistan. The significance of this four-chapter book lies in its departure from traditional Western-centric viewpoints, providing a distinct lens to comprehend the geopolitical and cultural strategies of these major Asian powers. This unique perspective on non-Western soft power will intrigue scholars, policymakers, and individuals interested in international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Book Review, Soft Power, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, India, and Asia

20. Understanding Global South Perspectives on Taiwan

Author:: Henrietta Levin and Hugh Grant-Chapman
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: To develop a better understanding of Global South perspectives on cross-Strait dynamics and Taiwan’s engagement with the developing world, the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies convened an international task force consisting of 20 leading scholars and practitioners from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Over the course of four workshops, task force members analyzed the increasing support that many Global South countries have offered for Beijing’s position on Taiwan, and how U.S. policy affects the position of Global South countries. They also considered opportunities for Taiwan to enhance its economic, diplomatic, and people-to-people engagement across the Global South. This brief summarizes the key takeaways from the task force’s deliberations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Global South, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Global South

21. Deepening Strategic Alignment: Priorities for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:: Kristi Govella and Nicholas Szechenyi
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: With new leadership in both countries, Japan and the United States are facing an increasingly uncertain global environment. As Japan prepares to revise its core national strategy documents, it is a particularly important time for Tokyo and Washington to deepen their strategic alignment. Although bilateral cooperation continues to proceed relatively smoothly at the operational level, there is a pressing need to articulate a strategic vision to guide alliance priorities and facilitate effective implementation of common objectives.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

22. Managing the Transatlantic Relationship in the Absence of US Leadership: Understanding the Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy

Author:: Paul Fritch
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s December 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) represents a radical shift in US foreign policy, involving a move from global leadership of a rules-based international order to unabashed nationalism and regional hegemony. The new strategy no longer views the country’s sprawling network of alliances and partnerships and its ability to attract and integrate high-level talent from around the world as unique strengths, but rather as vulnerabilities to be mitigated. However, as jarring as these substantive changes are, the document’s structural changes and the irregular process that produced it may prove more significant in demonstrating just how sharply Washington is turning away from 80 years of bipartisan foreign policy consensus. The change is evident not just in the Trump administration’s policies, but – crucially – in the decision-making process that produces them. The new NSS is best understood as the formalisation of the administration’s abandonment of traditional policy coordination and strategic planning itself, an effort that has included the removal of senior career diplomats, military commanders, and intelligence officers; the systematic dismissal of senior judge advocates general and inspectors general; and the firing of many National Security Council (NSC) staff. The collective result of these steps, which find their natural culmination in the NSS and the National Defense Strategy (NDS) that followed in January 2026, is a policymaking process that is less informed by objective intelligence and analysis, less constrained by legal and policy advice or alliance consultation, and thus more subject to impulsiveness and ideological influence. Both of these developments – a new “America First” nationalism that eschews multilateral constraints and an erratic decision-making process that produces unpredictable and often impracticable outcomes – require a fundamental assessment by the country’s partners of their approach to the United States, both bilaterally and within established multilateral frameworks. This Policy Brief examines the practical implications of the 2025 NSS and the dramatically changed decision-making process it represents. For transatlantic allies and other middle powers, the central question is no longer whether US strategy has changed, but how to operate effectively in an environment of reduced predictability and diminished US strategic anchoring.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

23. Lee Jae-myung's Inter-Korean Policy

Author:: Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: South Korea’s attempts to improve relations with North Korea have been unsuccessful. Although this is mainly due to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) reluctance to resume contacts with the Republic of Korea (ROK), an additional problem has been caused by the inconsistent actions of President Lee Jae-myung’s administration, which has been in office since June last year. The administration’s goal of ‘peaceful coexistence’ effectively means accepting reunification as unlikely, a prospect that is losing support in South Korean society. To avoid an escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea could seek to cooperate with countries that regularly engage with the DPRK, such as Poland.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Poland

24. Law and Politics of Israel and the United States’ Attacks on Iran with Maryam Jamshidi (Episode 54)

Author:: Sahar Aziz and Maryam Jamshidi
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Join host Professor Sahar Aziz (https://www.law.rutgers.edu/bio/sa1356) in her conversation with Professor Maryam Jamshidi (https://www.colorado.edu/law/node/125...) about the political and legal implications of Israel and the United States' unprovoked military attacks against Iran on February 28, 2026. As Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu publicly admitted, the Israeli government has been preparing for a war to topple the Iranian regime for over 30 years. (https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internation...) Knowing they do not possess sufficient military capacity to do it alone, Israel unsuccessfully attempted to persuade the United States to start a war of aggression against Iran under the Bush, Obama and Biden administrations. The reasons for restraint by past US administration were often the same. Iran posed no direct threat or conducted an imminent attack toward the US that legally justified an offensive war of aggression. The risk of a global economic downfall and the exorbitant price tag of a major war far outweighed the benefits of removing a hostile government. And perhaps most importantly from a military perspective, the United States had no exit strategy. Indeed, these were the same reasons that led to the Democratic Party winning the White House in 2008 after expensive and endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after 2001. Republican politicians campaigned on an America First platform in the 2021 elections by explicitly rejecting wars of choice in the Middle East that cost American lives and treasure. And yet, Republican President Donald Trump violated that promise to his constituents and granted Israel its 30-year dream to start an offensive war on Iran despite no credible evidence of an imminent threat by Iran. The result has been predictably catastrophic for the Middle East and the global economy. The war has engulfed the Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the 20% of global supply of oil and natural gas, energy prices are skyrocketing across the world, Tehran is being bombarded daily by Israel, over 1300 Iranians have been killed thus far, and the war is costing American taxpayers $1 billion per day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Aggression, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

25. An Indo-Pacific Lifeline? Outcomes of Canada’s Free Trade Agreements amid North America’s Economic Pull

Author:: Tito Almeida
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Rising global protectionism has renewed Canada’s strategic imperative to diversify its trade beyond the United States, given its longstanding export dependence. While the Indo-Pacific remains central to Canada’s foreign policy and trade diversification ambitions, there remains limited consensus on whether the Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement (CKFTA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have meaningfully increased Canada’s exports to partner countries. This study addresses this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of these agreements on Canada’s exports, and identifying which types of firms have driven these outcomes. Using a panel dataset of bilateral goods exports from 2010 to 2024 and estimating two-way fixed effects and difference-in-differences regressions, the article examines the short-term effects of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) implementation, while controlling for macroeconomic and institutional conditions in partner economies. Although statistically insignificant, this study found that Canada’s exports to high-income Indo-Pacific partners rose modestly after FTA entry, with SMEs recording the strongest gains. In contrast, it estimates Canada’s exports to middle-income partners declined across all categories of firms. With Canada aiming to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade, this article suggests that future studies on free trade agreements should continue to investigate partner countries’ levels of industrialization and the role of firms as drivers of export growth.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Exports, Protectionism, and Free Trade Agreements
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and Indo-Pacific

26. Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy

Author:: Christopher S. Chivvis and Senkai Hsia
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: When Joe Biden’s administration took office in January 2021, U.S.-China relations were in free fall. The era of presumed convergence had ended, mutual trust had collapsed, and the risk of escalation was real. The COVID-19 pandemic was raging. The central question was whether the relationship would harden into open and dangerous hostility or settle into a more durable form of rivalry. Biden officials viewed the inheritance of the first Trump administration to be a sharpened awareness of the China challenge but an underdeveloped national strategy and limited institutional capacity for that challenge. They set out to impose greater coherence, discipline, and durability on the U.S. approach to this crucial problem of American statecraft. At the heart of Biden’s approach was the consolidation of a framework for strategic competition with an eye toward coexistence. These officials accepted that China and the Chinese Communist Party are permanent features of the geopolitical landscape and that neither America nor China could meaningfully defeat the other without catastrophic cost. Their objective was therefore not dominance, but competitive coexistence—preserving U.S. advantages while avoiding war. That framing now shapes Washington’s statecraft and has endured even in the second Trump administration, albeit with some adjustments. The Biden team looked to technology as the center of gravity of their strategy. Building on but systematizing earlier efforts, they deployed export controls, industrial policy, and alliance coordination to protect U.S. leadership in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing. For the first time in decades, technological advantage was treated as the decisive arena of great-power rivalry. This shift represents one of their most consequential legacies. The Biden administration also paired competition with sustained diplomacy—especially in the second half of its term. Rather than treating dialogue as a concession, the White House aimed to use it to reduce misperception and manage risk. Strategic communications channels were restored and military-to-military contacts resumed. This produced tangible gains, including improved crisis management and renewed Chinese cooperation on fentanyl enforcement. Biden’s diplomats did not aim to eliminate rivalry, only to stabilize it by convincing Beijing that strategic competition was the appropriate framing for the U.S.-China relationship. Without this diplomatic track, the competitive strategy would have been more dangerous. The administration also emphasized U.S. alliances, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Security ties with Japan, Australia, India, and the Philippines deepened, and the administration worked to improve military coordination. At the same time, the administration was cautious about market opening, judging the domestic costs to outweigh the alliance building benefits. The alliance network thus grew stronger on defense but less integrated economically than long-term competition may require. On military strategy, the administration took a maximalist approach that bolstered deterrence, but they did so without fully resolving a fundamental question: how much is enough? Investments in regional posture and advanced capabilities were substantial, yet the strategy leaned toward maximizing capability rather than defining sufficiency from a strategic perspective. A competition framework does not require primacy at all costs. Future administrations will need to determine how to balance deterrence with flexibility, fiscal sustainability, and escalation risk—especially as the depth of U.S. support for conflict with China can be questioned. Biden’s China policy was calibrated realism—neither naive nor warlike. It recognized that long-term competition will be decided more by American domestic vitality than by military deployments. The strategy’s enduring insight is that diplomacy is an important complement to sustaining technological leadership, economic resilience, political stability, and capable alliances. These ultimately matter more than rhetorical confrontation and maximizing military advantage. The U.S.-China relationship remains fraught and unsettled, but Biden established a structured rivalry that avoided collapse and created a baseline from which future leaders—of either party—can operate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

27. Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and Prospects

Author:: Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Barely two months into his presidency of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte attended the 2016 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. The former mayor of Davao City had just swept the presidential election to become the first executive from outside of the Manila-based political establishment. Rather than reading a scripted speech, he launched into an impromptu tirade about colonial atrocities by the United States. Duterte went on to defend his violent war on drugs and rebut the criticisms of his equally violent purge of suspected criminals.1 The world was shocked by the bad manners exhibited by Duterte, especially his insult to then U.S. president Barack Obama.2 This was the beginning of the shift in Philippine foreign policy toward a more populist, illiberal, and revisionist posture—one that would last until Duterte’s presidency ended in 2022. This essay advances two core arguments about how Duterte’s right-wing populism shaped Philippine foreign policy. First, Duterte’s foreign policy was not motivated by an ideology, so much as by a performance anchored in symbolic defiance, personalized diplomacy, and selective norm rejection.3 Second, Duterte’s populist revisionism ultimately collided with entrenched structural constraints, including the country’s enduring security dependence on the United States, institutional resistance within the bureaucracy, and the democratic political succession that brought the nonpopulist President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to power. Taken together, these constraints exposed the limits of populist foreign policy in a small and militarily vulnerable state situated on the front lines of the U.S.-China rivalry. Since Duterte was elected, there has been widespread recognition that populism’s impact goes beyond national borders. In Europe, for instance, populists tended not to touch traditional foreign policy and security issues until the 2015 refugee crisis. The wave of populism that followed was marked by a contempt for the cosmopolitan European outlook that had long underpinned support for the European Union, liberal migration policies, and Europe’s reliance on the United States for its security.4 Populists on both the left and right are often skeptical of multilateral institutions because they restrain state power. Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chávez, for example, attempted to form alternative regional institutions in the Americas to counter U.S. hegemony.5 The revisionist impulse inherent in populism inclines its leaders toward foreign policy adventurism, even though abrupt shifts are uncommon given the durability of national strategic interests. Populist leaders also often exhibit a high risk tolerance—especially personalist leaders in command of highly concentrated state power.6 Moreover, they often see foreign policy as a means of weakening their political opponents and consolidating power at home. They also crave international recognition, which they pursue through “megaphone diplomacy” that foregrounds their personality and charisma.7 The burden of managing foreign relations is bearable for the populist up to the point that strategic reality intervenes, imposing itself in ways that leave scant room for performance. Populist politics, therefore, are unable to resist the water’s edge. This essay proceeds by tracing the right-wing populist currents in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte through three major international issues: disputes with China in the South China Sea, the attempted abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States, and the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Respectively, each of these issues foregrounds one of the foundations of Philippine foreign policy that Duterte attempted to undermine: international law, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, and human rights. The essay goes on to analyze how these foreign policy stances resonated with the revisionist orientations of countries that Duterte sought inspiration from—namely China and Russia. These revisionist narratives were reinforced in the Philippines through domestic disinformation networks that learned strategies from Russia and China.8 Finally, the essay highlights the implications of Duterte’s populist policies under the Marcos Jr. administration and examines the prospects of their revival in the future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Populism, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

28. The French Far Right’s Foreign Policy: Big Ambitions, Uncertain Direction

Author:: Catherine Fieschi
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: France occupies a singular position in Europe when it comes to right-wing populist and far-right politics. The country is home to one of the oldest and most electorally successful far-right and populist traditions in Western Europe—from its pre–Second World War thinkers such as Charles Maurras and groups such as Action Française to the tax revolt movement of Pierre Poujade in the 1950s and now the political party known as the Rassemblement National (National Rally)—yet no right-wing populist or far-right party has captured the presidency since the Second World War. At the same time, in France of all European countries, such a takeover would have the most immediate and consequential foreign policy effects, given the extraordinary concentration of diplomatic and military authority vested in the French presidency itself. The case of the National Rally offers a useful window into the intersection of populism, foreign policy, and strong presidentialism. Specifically, it highlights the difficulties populist leaders encounter in building alliances, both globally and within Europe, and helps explain why populists may end up hedging on key foreign policy positions. The possibility of a Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella presidency, moreover, underscores a broader risk: that right-wing populism in middle powers could erode the very international order that has enabled middle powers to attain and sustain their influence. The differences between the National Rally’s two leaders—Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella—are also emblematic of a broader divide among right-wing populists in Europe: On the one side, there are those who aim to reshape Europe from within by steering EU institutions in a conservative-national direction. Hungary’s ousted Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni loosely embody this side, which in France is represented by Jordan Bardella. On the other side, there are those who reject the EU’s supranational constraints altogether. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, represents the latter, which in France is closer to Le Pen. What makes France distinctive is that this divide exists within a single party and between its two potential presidential candidates for 2027—with Le Pen retaining the loyalty of much of the party’s cadre, but with Bardella, despite internal resistance, also commanding broad electoral support.1 In France, the question of who will campaign for the presidency will therefore be critical.2 Le Pen—and her “brand”—remains the party’s strongest electoral asset and would likely have a better chance of winning a presidential election than Bardella. Yet her instincts remain more confrontational toward Europe and multilateral institutions. By contrast, while Bardella is more market-friendly and potentially less disruptive internationally, he remains—despite his popularity with voters—untested in the uniquely demanding environment of French presidential campaigning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe and France

29. Learning Mandarin, Riding the Metro: China’s Street-Level Presence in Bogotá

Author:: Tony Kirby
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: China’s presence in Colombia is no longer an abstract geopolitical discussion but rather a reality negotiated day by day through construction work, commercial exchange, language learning, and personal relationships.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Construction
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Colombia, and South America

30. An Unbowed Petro Successfully Plays the Diplomat

Author:: Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s positive meeting with Trump stands to benefit not only his coalition, but also the region writ large.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, Regional Politics, and Gustavo Petro
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

31. From fragmentation to integration: China’s “Vertical-Horizontal Model” for the protection of overseas interests

Author:: Zhiqiang Zou, Degang Sun, and Jinan Wang
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China’s overseas interests have been faced with a growing array of multidimensional threats. China has carried out legislative and institutional reforms, forming a “vertical-horizontal model” for interagency cooperation and government-society fusion. The central government of China has passed a series of legislative acts to legalise China’s protection of overseas interests, a top-down vertical governance. Parallel ministries, departments, and offices have formed task-based institutions through consultation to promote China’s overseas interest protection, thereby establishing a cross-sectoral horizontal governance mechanism. The implementation of the “vertical-horizontal model,” however, confronts an array of hurdles, with heavy bureaucracy potentially giving rise to problems such as inefficiency and collective irresponsibility.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Reform, Legislation, Institutions, and Vertical-Horizontal Model
Political Geography:: China and Asia

32. Necessary Neighbors: Poland and Ukraine Must Stabilize Their Strained Partnership

Author:: Yuliia Korotia
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Polish-Ukrainian relations have moved from a phase of exceptional solidarity to one of mounting tension and deepening structural strain. What initially seemed to be a long-term strategic partnership grounded in shared security interests has evolved into a more fragmented and fragile, at times almost hostile, relationship. This shift, visible across political, economic, and social dimensions, risks undermining not only bilateral cooperation but also the broader foundations of regional stability at a moment of ongoing war, strategic uncertainty in Europe, and a potentially antagonistic transatlantic relationship. If Poland and Ukraine fail to adopt a more realistic, constructive, and mutually attentive approach to the partnership, their cooperation will weaken in ways that directly affect military logistics, EU cohesion, regional resilience, and resistance to hybrid threats. Understanding how the relationship has changed, and what deeper dynamics are driving this, is essential for assessing the risks ahead and identifying pathways to improve the relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

33. If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of “Minor Conflict” and “Major War” Scenarios

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the capabilities of the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Taiwan to assess potential escalation pathways and to better understand war termination strategies.1 Comparatively less attention has been devoted to the potential impact of cross-Strait conflict on the PRC itself and how that impact could shape President Xi Jinping’s risk calculus and decision-making about use of force against Taiwan. Xi’s risk calculus is crucial to understanding if and under what circumstances Beijing might take aggressive actions against Taiwan because any such decision would carry profound political, economic, and strategic consequences for the PRC and for him personally. Xi has tied his legitimacy to putting the PRC on an irreversible path toward the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation by 2049 and unifying Taiwan with the motherland is deemed essential to that goal. Yet a military conflict over Taiwan would risk massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, significant social unrest, and devastating sanctions, all of which could turn his dream into a nightmare and undermine his political authority. Xi’s calculus must therefore weigh the perceived benefits of using force to achieve unification against the potential costs. The centrality of Xi’s risk calculus to understanding future PRC decision-making about potential actions against Taiwan demands deeper investigation than has taken place so far. This report seeks to fill this research gap by examining how use of force against Taiwan would impact the PRC in four key areas: its economy, its military capabilities, its social stability, and international costs. Each issue set is evaluated in a separate paper, although all four are interrelated, a factor that the report’s conclusion addresses. Logan Wright and Charlie Vest assess potential implications for the PRC economy. Joel Wuthnow analyzes the possible impact on the Chinese military. Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi consider the potential risks for social stability. Zack Cooper examines the likely international responses and costs. There is a broad range of possible scenarios for PRC use of force against Taiwan. Potential actions taken by Beijing may vary in terms of intensity and duration. To make comparisons possible across the four papers, the authors were given two baseline scenarios, a limited conflict and a major war. Both are described in detail below. In outlining these scenarios, specific triggers were not established. They would nevertheless be important in determining international responses and subsequently would have implications for the PRC economy and possibly for social stability. Although the absence of a detailed trigger is a limiting factor, in any crisis multiple actors will draw their own conclusions about what sparked the conflict, so perceptions of who was at fault would differ across countries. The authors were also permitted to assess cases situated between a minor conflict and a major war, given that the economic, military, political, and international costs may vary discontinuously across a range of scenarios. All scenarios were assumed to occur between 2026 and 2030. The first scenario that authors assess is a minor conflict lasting several weeks. In this case, PRC ships and aircraft surround Taiwan after a series of deadly air and maritime confrontations between their forces. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) then attempts to conduct a “quarantine” of major ports in Taiwan. The United States intervenes and its warships escort commercial vessels through the blockade zone without incident. For the purposes of this scenario, dozens of PRC and Taiwan armed forces members are assumed killed in incidents in the air and at sea. There are no losses of foreign personnel. The conflict terminates when both sides agree to de-escalate the situation. This results in a relatively low intensity and short duration conflict. The second scenario that authors were asked to review was a major conflict of several months that ends in a PLA defeat. This conflict starts with an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in which initial PLA missile strikes target Taiwan’s military and US forces in Japan and Guam. PRC forces land on Taiwan but supplies and follow-on forces are hampered by sustained Taiwanese and US strikes on ships and aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait. After several months of heavy fighting, PRC forces withdraw to the mainland after losing roughly 100,000 personnel. Taiwan suffers approximately 50,000 military casualties and 50,000 civilian casualties. The United States loses 5,000 military members and 1,000 civilians, while Japan loses 1,000 military members and 500 civilians. Beyond this, no substantial foreign losses occur. The conflict terminates when the PLA withdraws from the main island of Taiwan but retains control of the Kinmen and Matsu Islands. The purpose of these scenarios is not to assert that this is how a conflict over Taiwan would play out. The intention is instead to help describe in more detail what the costs would be to the PRC of a failed crossstrait operation. An important caveat is that the authors were asked to make their own assessments of the impact on the PRC in each of the four areas examined. They were not asked to put themselves in Xi’s (or his successor’s) shoes. Xi and his colleagues might underestimate (or overestimate) the costs that the PRC would incur in these scenarios. Even if Beijing anticipates that the costs of taking an action against Taiwan are high, they might proceed despite the perceived risks. National leaders often make choices that overlook high costs if the perceived benefits are high or overridden by political considerations. Xi might conclude that not acting is more costly for him personally than taking a risky action that he believes is necessary to demonstrate resolve. For example, if Xi views a step taken by Taipei as intended to permanently separate it from the PRC, and especially if he judges that Washington supports that goal, he is likely to move against Taiwan even if he expects that the PLA would suffer high casualties in attempting to seize it. Overall, the authors of these essays demonstrate that the costs to the PRC of a failed military operation against Taiwan would be substantial. As noted above, this is not to suggest that Beijing would necessarily be deterred from starting a conflict in the first place. But it would be a mistake to simply assume that the PRC would prevail in a conflict over Taiwan. The history of failed amphibious operations is long, and these essays demonstrate that an unsuccessful PRC-initiated conflict would have severe negative consequences for the country’s economy, military, social stability, and international standing.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

34. Virtual Briefing Series | US Military Posture and Strike Options Against Iran

Author:: Kevin Donegan, Mick Mulroy, and Jason Campbell
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On January 14, as the Iranian regime brutally cracked down on the largest street protests the country had seen in years, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to persevere, posting on social media “help is on its way.” At the time, however, limited US military resources in the theater constrained the president’s military options. In the ensuing month since Trump’s post, the Pentagon has repositioned significant forces to the Middle East. This has led to wide speculation that the US is preparing for renewed strikes on Iran even as the Trump administration pursues diplomatic talks with the Iranian regime. To better understand the military planning and force posture dynamics shaping US policy choices, this briefing featured two Distinguished Military Fellows, former commander of the 5th Fleet VADM Kevin Donegan, USN (Ret.), and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell moderated the discussion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Protests, Military, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

35. Virtual Briefing Series | Tehran’s Brewing Troubles

Author:: Zeina AlShaib, Alan Eyre, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This briefing discussed the ongoing Iranian protests and severe government crackdown, which have rocked Iran since last week. The street demonstrations, sparked by the country’s economic nosedive and at times turning violent, are the largest in three years. As regime arrests and killings of protesters have intensified, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, his remarks potentially taking on a more vivid significance in light of the American military extraction over the weekend of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro — an ally of Tehran. This conversation featured Alan Eyre, Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Eyre retired from the US Foreign Service in September 2023, after a 40-year government career, which included negotiating with the Iranian government over its nuclear program. The discussion also featured Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at MEI and author of the book The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

36. Forever the Frenemies of the Middle East? Türkiye’s Regional Relations with Iran, 2002 to 2023

Author:: Cem Savaş
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article investigates the puzzle of Türkiye’s fluctuating relations with Iran since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Contrary to many scholars’ expectations, the AKP government’s relations with Iran have competition and rivalry rather than just cooperation. Having improved significantly in the early 2000s, the relations became tense following the Arab uprisings and Syria’s civil war. However, the relations between the two countries have included both cooperative and conflictual elements since 2016. This research argues that the most relevant level for analyzing Türkiye’s fluctuating foreign policy strategies toward Iran between 2002 and 2023 is regional. Using the regionalist approaches of Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Lake and Morgan’s theory of regional orders, the article examines how the “local security externalities” of the Middle Eastern regional security complex (RSC) affect Türkiye-Iran regional relations by particularly focusing on speech acts of Turkish high-level foreign policy actors. By acknowledging the multi-layered nature of Middle Eastern politics, this study also considers the role of extra-regional actors and non-state armed groups in Turkish foreign policy attitudes toward Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, AKP, Regional Security, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

37. The Logic of Foreign Policy: An Explanatory Model for Strategic Volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule

Author:: Erol Kurubaş
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The AKP government in Türkiye has been following a foreign policy based on values and discourses rather than power and interests. However, despite the lack of a radical change in international conditions, contrasting approaches in terms of the nature of foreign policy, strategic orientation, foreign relations, and international image have been adopted by the same government over short intervals of time. While a first period was marked by a value-laden transformation, a second was marked by righteous and romantic discourse and actions pointing to more value-based mentality. In a third period, foreign policy was guided by a logic based on a populist and opportunist approach. This paper calls each of these bases that shape foreign policy a different logic of foreign policy. Accordingly, while the logic of the first period was constructed in “the modified base logic” and led to the quest for strategic depth in foreign policy, the logic of the second became “righteous-romantic” and resulted in “strategic instability”. The logic of third, on the other hand, was shaped by its reactive form and led to “strategic uncertainty”. In this way, the paper argues that the strategic volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy can be explained by the elements that constitute the logic of foreign policy and the interactions among them.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, AKP, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

38. Diplomacy Meets Paradiplomacy: Unpacking Central Government Responses through Evidence from Turkey’s Paradiplomac

Author:: Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Emrah Atar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This study examines the central government’s response to the paradiplomacy of sub-state actors through an analysis of the Turkish case, using a qualitative approach. As part of this research, a total of twelve face-to-face or virtual interviews were conducted with the representatives from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marmara Municipalities Union, and academics between June 2023 and November 2023. It views paradiplomacy as an outcome of the ongoing trend to localize diplomacy and aims to identify varying central government responses to paradiplomacy. These responses are analyzed using a three-fold categorization: positive, negative and mixed. The characteristics of each category explored in the context of the Turkish case. The study suggests that, despite the central government’s opportunistic approach to paradiplomacy, its response has shown a cyclical tendency. The central government’s stance on paradiplomacy is therefore complex and politically driven. It fluctuates along a broad spectrum, ranging from direct support to outright exclusion. This reflects the shifting political dynamics in Turkey.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Governance, Municipalities, and Sub-state Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

39. Avoiding a Long War - Objectives and Conditions for the US Attack on Iran

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The American operation in Iran may be prolonged, lasting several months instead of the planned few weeks. The low public support of Americans for intervention and the economic effects of rising oil prices are unlikely to change the US administration’s stance. Difficulties in completely eliminating the threats posed by Iran may prompt Donald Trump to increase military involvement, including the use of special forces or the launch of a ground invasion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

40. The Structural Transformation of U.S. Foreign Economic Policy and Its Economic Effects

Author:: Gusang Kang
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Over the past decade, U.S. foreign economic policy has undergone a structural transformation that extends beyond partisan political cycles. What initially appeared to be a temporary shift toward protectionism under the first Trump administration has consolidated into a broader orientation centered on economic security, strategic competition with China, and domestic industrial revitalization. The renegotiation of the existing trade agreements, withdrawal from multilateral frameworks, and imposition of Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs marked a clear departure from the liberal trade order that had characterized U.S. policy for decades. Rather than reversing this trajectory, the Biden administration utilized core tariff measures and expanded industrial policy through the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, reinforcing a production-centered strategy aimed at reshaping global supply chains. At the core of this transformation lies a reconfiguration of incentives governing global capital allocation and trade patterns. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) fundamentally restructured the U.S. international tax regime through provisions such as GILTI, FDII, and BEAT while lowering the statutory corporate tax rate, thereby altering firms’ location and investment decisions. At the same time, Section 301 tariffs sought to change relative prices in global value chains, reduce U.S. dependence on China, and induce supply chain realignment. Together, these measures illustrate how U.S. foreign economic policy increasingly integrates trade, tax, and industrial instruments into a coherent framework of economic statecraft. Against this backdrop, this report empirically evaluates the economic effects of these policy instruments. It examines how the TCJA affected U.S. outward and inward foreign direct investment and how Section 301 tariffs influenced trade flows at the product level, particularly with respect to trade diversion involving Korea. By employing panel regression and event-study methodologies, the study aims to identify causal impacts and dynamic adjustment patterns. The findings provide evidence that recent U.S. foreign economic policy has produced measurable structural effects on global investment and trade flows, offering important implications for Korea’s strategic economic positioning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Global Value Chains, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

41. Between Realism and Constructivism: Theorising Foreign Policy Shifts After the Israel-Gaza War

Author:: Abeeta Hilal and Meha Pant
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The Israel-Gaza conflict, following the events of October 7, reignited global scrutiny of foreign policy postures, revealing a stark contrast between official state narratives and widespread public dissent. Whereas most governments resorted to a complex of realism in the reassertion of the strategic alliances and security interests, the responses of civil society, such as protests, advocacy, and media critique, emphasised the increasing pressure of a constructivist, norm-based approach to international engagement. This changing dynamic, the literature tends to present realism and constructivism as pugnacious rather than complementary paradigms, leaving a considerable gap in explaining the complexity of modern foreign policy-making. The theoretical deficit is addressed in the current paper, which examines changes in foreign policy from an integrative perspective that reconciles realist and constructivist theories. Using qualitative and historical data, the study analyses Western responses to the Israel-Gaza war, revealing tensions between strategic interests and ideological principles, requiring hybrid theoretical approaches.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Realism, Constructivism, Norms, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

42. Russia-Africa Relations amid Global Geopolitical Shifts

Author:: Wojciech Kotowicz
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The article examines the dynamics of Russia’s relations with African states against the backdrop of the post-2022 transformation of the international system. The research objective is to identify the geopolitical motivations behind Russia’s engagement in Africa, assess the instruments used to implement this policy, and delineate the prospects and constraints for Russia-Africa relations under conditions of growing multipolarity. The author argues that Russia’s expansion in Africa – though catalyzed by the international isolation resulting from its aggression against Ukraine – forms part of a broader strategy to assemble an alternative, anti-Western bloc in which Africa plays a key legitimating and symbolic role. The analysis covers the historical foundations of Russia-Africa relations from the Cold War era, the geopolitical drivers of Russia’s post-2022 engagement, and the instruments of Russian policy toward Africa, with particular attention to the military, economic, and information domains. The study shows that African states – especially military juntas in the Sahel – are not passive objects of Russian manipulation but active players pursuing their own survival strategies by diversifying international partnerships. The material underpinnings of Russia’s engagement, however, remain fragile: limited investment, a focus on extractive and defense sectors, and rising reputational costs indicate that Moscow is maximizing influence at minimal cost. The conclusion holds that the durability of Russia’s presence in Africa will be tested by the Kremlin’s capacity to sustain engagement amid a protracted war in Ukraine, by the evolving expectations of African publics, and by the response of the West and other global actors intensifying the competition for influence on the continent.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Africa and Russia

43. Relations of the Russian Federation with African States in Russian Strategic Documents – Political and Military Dimension

Author:: Krzysztof Żęgota
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The article examines the evolution of the Russian Federation’s relations with African states through the lens of Russian strategic documents and foreign policy practices. It argues that Russia’s contemporary engagement in Africa reflects the implementation of priorities defined in successive national security strategies since 1997. Moscow’s approach integrates political and military dimensions, aiming to restore great-power status, secure geopolitical footholds, and counter Western influence. Politically, Russia presents itself as an anti-colonial partner advocating multipolarity and sovereignty, while militarily it strengthens ties through arms trade, training, and the deployment of private military contractors. Case studies of Egypt, Mali, and the Central African Republic illustrate how Russia’s strategic narratives have been translated into concrete diplomatic and security partnerships. In conclusion, the article argues that Russia’s policy toward Africa represents both a continuation of Soviet-era ambitions and a pragmatic adaptation to the geopolitical realities of the twenty-first century. By selectively deploying limited resources and focusing on strategically significant states, Russia has managed to expand its influence on the African continent despite growing competition from other international actors.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, and Military Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa and Russia

44. Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations

Author:: Nicholas Burns and Yasheng Huang
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 Speakers: Nicholas Burns is the Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He is the founder and faculty chair of the Future of Diplomacy Project and a faculty affiliate at Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Burns worked in the United States government for over three decades, serving six presidents and nine secretaries of state. Most recently, he served as the US ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 2021-2025, leading public servants from forty-eight US government agencies at the US mission to China in overseeing one of America's most important bilateral relationships. Moderator: Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He also serves as the faculty director of the MIT-China Program at the Center for International Studies. From 2013 to 2017, he served as an associate dean of MIT Sloan’s GlobalPartnership programs and its Action Learning initiatives. His previous appointments include faculty positions at the University of Michigan and at Harvard Business School. Huang is the author of 11 books in both English and Chinese and of many academic papers. His most recent book, “The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to its Decline”, was a 2023 Best Book of the Year by Foreign Affairs magazine.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

45. Focus on Eurasia: Putin’s War Against the West

Author:: John J. Sullivan, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Focus on Eurasia: Putin’s War Against the West: A Conversation with the Former US Ambassador to the Russian Federation | Monday, March 16, 2026 Speaker: Ambassador John J. Sullivan is the former US deputy secretary of state and former US ambassador to the Russian Federation. His career spans four decades in public service in prominent diplomatic and legal positions under five US presidents. He is a non-resident distinguished senior fellow with the National Security Law Program as well as a partner in Mayer Brown’s Washington DC and New York offices. He co-leads the firm’s National Security practice. Co-chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program at the Center for International Studies (CIS). She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, the political cult of WWII, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and US-Russian Partnerships in Science. She is the faculty director of the Center’s MIT-Ukraine Program and co-faculty director of the MIT-Eurasia Program.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Populism, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

46. Shifting Grounds: Public Opinion and the Future of Trilateral Cooperation in the United States, South Korea, and Japan

Author:: Je Heon (James) Kim
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The August 2023 trilateral summit at Camp David marked a historic milestone in U.S.-South Korea-Japan relations, establishing new frameworks for crisis consultation, information-sharing, military exercises, and cooperation on critical supply chains. Two years on, the durability of that achievement is being tested by a turbulent second Donald Trump administration, rising Chinese assertiveness, an entrenched North Korean nuclear program, and unresolved historical tensions between South Korea and Japan. Whether the Camp David framework endures will depend not only on the decisions of leaders but on the publics whose support sustains them. This report presents findings from comprehensive public opinion surveys conducted in the United States, South Korea, and Japan in August 2025. It examines where the three countries’ publics converge, where they diverge, and what those patterns mean for the future of trilateral cooperation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, and Trilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

47. Trilateralism Through Transition: Reflections on U.S.-South Korea-Japan Cooperation From Experts and Emerging Leaders

Author:: Korea Economic Institute of America
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Two years after the Camp David summit among the United States, South Korea, and Japan institutionalized trilateral cooperation, the partnership faces new challenges amid leadership transitions in all three capitals. To assess the stakes, the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) and The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation convened a public panel with Zack Cooper (CSIS), Shihoko Goto (Mansfield Foundation), and Eun A Jo (William & Mary). Drawing on insights from these experts, 15 competitively selected emerging leaders joined a private roundtable to develop blue-sky ideas for the future of trilateral cooperation. This report offers timely perspectives for the policy community on how the three partners can sustain momentum amidst uncertainty.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, Leadership, and Trilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

48. Israel-Kurd Relations in the Middle East Post-October 7

Author:: Uri Zaki
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This policy paper examines the relationship between Israel and the Kurdish nation against the backdrop of the dramatic changes in the Middle East since the events of October 7, 2023. The collapse of the old order in Syria, developments in the Turkish arena, and the deepening confrontation between Israel and Iran have created a new regional reality in which the Kurds – a nation of 40 million dispersed across Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran – have become a significant actor in shaping the regional balance of power. This paper is based on in-depth discussions with senior Kurdish officials and opinion leaders from the four major territories populated by Kurds, and seeks to diverge from an approach that views the Kurds as an assemblage of disparate communities. Consistently emerging from these discussions is the perception of the Kurds as a single nation despite the political and legal differences between their various concentrations, and the expectation of Israel to adopt an overarching long-term policy, tailored to the various Kurdish arenas. From Israel’s perspective, its relations with the Kurds should be considered an independent component of its regional policy rather than a by-product of its confrontations with other regional actors. In the Syrian arena, the continued existence of effective Kurdish autonomy serves Israel’s interests of decentralization, containment of Turkish influence, and protection of minorities. In the Turkish arena, the Kurd issue is intertwined with efforts to deal with a hostile Hamas-supporting regime, while in Iran, the Kurds constitute a unique opposition with potential for domestic action. This paper was completed shortly before the recent events in northeastern Syria, which included aggressive military actions against Kurd autonomy by the al-Sharaa regime, which threaten the community’s very existence. These developments underscore the fragility of the arrangements in the Syrian arena and reinforce the need for an Israeli strategy vis a vis the Kurds. The English transaltion of the original Hebrew memo, is published in the midst of the war between the US & Israel and Iran. In which the Kurds, again, might play a crucial role. This paper proposes a series of actionable recommendations for a proactive Israeli policy based on diplomatic and security tools and on soft-power civilian, academic, and cultural tools, grounded in an understanding that the question is not whether Israel will be forced to take a stand on the Kurdish issue, but how it should do so in an informed, strategic manner. Read here
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Kurds, Regional Politics, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and 2026 Iran War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Kurdistan

49. Asia’s Growing Global Influence: A Study of India’s Africa Policy

Author:: Hamdy A. Hassan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The 21st century could become an Asian and African century, which will result in a radical global transformation of the world. Thus, the past decade has witnessed a large Asian presence in Africa, especially, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Not surprisingly that the rise of Asia in global politics has worried the traditional Western powers. Analyzing contemporary Asian approaches to Africa should be performed through their historical contexts, in particular the history of competition and rivalry between Asian rising powers. It is no secret that this point has not been adequately addres-sed in previous studies on African-Asian relations (Iwata 2019). This state of rivalry is reflected in the African policies of major Asian countries. For example, the Sino-Indian conflict and the Sino-Japanese conflict, in addition to the Taiwan issue, have definitely affected these countries’ interactions with Africa. In contrast to European policies towards Africa after the founding of the European Union, there is no consensus framework for Asian international relations. The experience of struggle against colonialism and engagement in the Non-Aligned Movement represented the most prominent components of the mutual relations between Asia and Africa, especially since the Ban-dung Conference in 1955 (Adem 2017). When the Cold War ended, Asian countries began to achieve high and rapid rates of economic development. Hence, the Asian countries that previously received development aid have become among the most important international donors. This means that the concept of “donor powers” has undergone a major change that it is not limited to Western industrialized countries (including Japan). Perhaps all of this requires studying and analyzing Asian-African relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Global South, Donors, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Africa and India

50. Assad’s Fall Is an Opportunity for a U.S. Win Over China

Author:: Grant Rumley
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beijing consistently supported the regime’s brutal repressive measures, so cozying up to the rebel-led transition government may be more difficult than it expects. In the months since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023, China has seized on the conflict to criticize not only Israel but by extension the U.S. and its position in the region. For years, Chinese diplomats had been careful to toe a centrist line in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calibrating their language to avoid offending either side too greatly. Yet as the conflict has dragged on the past year, and as the region’s criticisms of the U.S. have risen, Beijing sensed an opportunity to diminish the U.S. standing while boosting its own. Chinese officials have regularly omitted mention of Hamas’s atrocities while blasting Israel and the U.S. for its support. Now, however, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has presented the U.S. with a similar opportunity...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, Bashar al-Assad, 2023 Gaza War, and Transitional Government
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

51. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:: Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

52. Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

53. Virtual Briefing Series | Trump and the Middle East: A new beginning or business as usual?

Author:: Kenneth Pollack and Brian Katulis
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: President-elect Donald Trump’s second term coincides with radical changes in the Middle East. Trump has promised lasting peace in the region, but what does his vision for peace look like? This on-the-record briefing featured Dr. Kenneth Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute (MEI), in his first event since joining MEI. Dr. Pollack twice served on the National Security Council and began his career as a military analyst at the CIA. The briefing also featured Brian Katulis, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at MEI. Katulis’ career has also included time at the National Security Council as well as the US Departments of State and Defense. Our experts discussed the new administration’s policy toward the Middle East and its main players, the Trump team’s role in securing a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and the potential for the agreement to endure, what to expect from Trump 2.0 vis-à-vis Iran, as well as the prospects for Trump to expand the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East

54. Barbara A. Leaf on US Leadership and Engagement in the Middle East

Author:: Brian Katulis and Barbara A. Leaf
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Middle East Focus Presents: ’Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis. A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI’s Senior Fellow Brian Katulis. Barbara A. Leaf is a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Middle East, having served as the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and held key positions in US embassies across the region. In this episode, Barbara joins Brian to discuss the array of “black swan” events currently unfolding in the Middle East, and how the second Trump administration may respond to these challenges. They discuss the broader implications of these developments for US foreign policy, national security, and regional stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Engagement, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

55. Costly Incrementalism: U.S. PKK Policy and Relations with Türkiye

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: U.S. policy towards the PKK, a designated Foreign Terror Organization, has varied significantly over four decades, reflecting a clear periodization based on pragmatic policy interests and the interplay of U.S. actions and Turkish responses. Washington has over time supported Turkish counter-PKK actions without direct involvement; actively supported Turkish counter-PKK efforts; tolerated or tacitly supported PKK activities; and directly instrumentalized and supported the PKK in Syria and regionally. Washington’s evolving stance toward the PKK coincided with the rise of Al Qaeda (AQ) and its offshoot, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as the focus of U.S. Middle East policy. The evolution reflected an incremental approach that subordinated U.S.-Turkish relations and other regional problems to the campaign against AQ/IS. Bilateral cooperation suffered as incrementalism, low trust, and transactionalism came to characterize the relationship. This paper examines the history, current dynamics, and possible future trajectory of U.S. PKK policy as a problem in U.S. Turkish bilateral relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

56. A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Turkish Public Opinion towards the United States

Author:: Efe Tokdemir, Melike Metintaş, and Seçkin Köstem
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Türkiye - United States relations have a multifaceted character and have spanned a long period, witnessing ups and downs throughout their historical trajectory. Türkiye’s relations with and foreign policy towards the US have been closely monitored by the public, and diverse perspectives towards the US have emerged within Turkish public opinion over time. This paper investigates the various factors that affect Turkish public opinion towards the US. Previous studies have generally examined public opinion through the demand side, exploring what features of the public predict their behavior towards other countries. In this research, we examine what exactly it is about the US that the public likes or dislikes. The research question of this article is: What are the determinants of the variation in individuals’ foreign policy attitudes towards the US in Türkiye? By answering this question through survey data conducted in 2021, we aim to present the economic, security-related, and political reasons behind the Turkish public’s positive and negative attitudes toward the US. The findings demonstrate that individuals are influenced by various dimensions pertaining to the US and its relations with Türkiye. The respondents’ demographic characteristics and political and foreign policy attitudes have resulted in disparate opinions regarding these multiple dimensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

57. Where is the Anchor? Explaining the Endurance of the American-Turkish Partnership, 1927-2024

Author:: Onur Erpul and Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Once considered a model partnership, the American-Turkish relationship now elicits ambivalence among scholars and policymakers, calling into question the fundamental interests and assumptions that once undergirded the relationship. Critics attribute the negative trends in the relationship to geostrategic and value-based incompatibilities, but relatively few have examined both factors longitudinally across the entire relationship. This paper does not aim to provide a grand theory of American-Turkish relations. Instead, its goal is to develop a framework illustrating the vital role that strategic, ideational, and domestic political factors have played in shaping macro-level outcomes in the partnership’s cohesion at various junctures. Overall, our paper identifies the positive role of foreign policy bureaucratic elites on both sides acting as an “invisible hand” providing an anchor for the relationship even in the absence of other commonalities. Yet, we also observe the weakening of this hand in recent times as both countries become domestically transformed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Elites
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

58. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:: Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

59. Translating Trump’s Disruptive Diplomacy into a New Reality in Gaza

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

60. Turkey’s Vision Transforms Post-Assad Syria

Author:: Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ankara aims to establish lasting influence through military expansion, strategic infrastructure projects, and economic agreements, including maritime treaties. Through its assertive Neo-Ottomanist policies Ankara aims become the primary architect of Syria’s future while countering rival powers like Iran and Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

61. Trump First, America Second

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his inaugural address to a nation half-enthusiastic and half-stunned still by the most extraordinary political comeback in US history, Donald Trump portrayed himself as the saviour of the nation, chosen by God Himself to finally turn America First from slogan to reality and truly ‘make America great again’.[1] The mixture of politics, ideology and megalomaniac eschatology is especially interesting because Trump has tied the fate of the nation to his personal fortunes like no other president before him. As he puts it, the realisation of America First is inextricably linked to his personal power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ideology, Far Right, Donald Trump, and Nativism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

62. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power

Author:: Amjed Rasheed
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

63. The Mattei Plan One Year On

Author:: Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 28-29 January 2024, the Italian Senate hosted the Italy-Africa Summit, bringing together 21 heads of state and government from African countries, along with other representatives of African, European and global organisations. The African representatives were gathered by the announcement that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would publicly present the Mattei Plan, a project with which the Italian government wants to redesign relations with the continent based on “equal-to-equal” collaboration. A year later, it is possible to take a first stock of announcements, projects and weaknesses that have emerged so far.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Public-Private Partnership, Collaboration, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:: Africa, Italy, and North America

64. Italy’s Foreign Policy in the ‘Super-election Year’ 2024

Author:: Leo Goretti and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This document provides an English summary of the 2024 edition of IAI’s annual report on Italian foreign policy titled: “L’Italia nell’anno delle grandi elezioni”, developed with the support of the Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo. The 2024 edition of the report, edited by Ferdinando Nelli Feroci and Leo Goretti, features the contributions of a group of IAI researchers coordinated by the Institute’s Italian Foreign Policy programme. The report covers all the core areas of Italian foreign policy, beginning with the relations with the European Union and European allies and those with the US at the dawn of Donald Trump’s second term. Specific attention is paid to the two major crises in the closest neighbourhood of the country, analysing Italy’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and its position vis-à-vis the Israel-Gaza conflict. An in-depth focus is devoted to the government’s pivot to Africa under the umbrella of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, as well as the relations with the People’s Republic of China and the Indo-Pacific region at large. Structural policies are then addressed, from the defence and aerospace policy to the government’s approach to the energy and climate crises to migration policy. Finally, some considerations are made on the 2024 Italian G7 Presidency and the overall Italian involvement in multilateral fora.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Donald Trump, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

65. Trump’s Call with Putin Raises Great Concerns, Few Hopes

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, especially when read in combination with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s re-definition of US Europe policy, casts a long shadow. There are good reasons to be more concerned than hopeful about the peace deal that seems to be taking shape in the minds of the US Administration. At the same time, there are elements suggesting a less pessimistic assessment of the looming negotiations. Trump’s call with Putin has made a big splash but has not yet pierced Ukraine’s armour.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

66. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:: Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

67. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy between Trump and Europe: Fateful Choices Ahead

Author:: Maria Luisa Fantappiè, Leo Goretti, and Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The priority should be “preventing divisions within the West and the transatlantic alliance”, while “rooting for” this or that side would not be helpful: it is thus that Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni commented on the spat in the Oval Office between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump,[1] and by extension, between Washington and Europe. In the aftermath of the clash, while most European leaders openly supported Zelensky, Meloni’s reticence was notable. The choice was tough. Siding with Zelensky would jeopardise Meloni’s aspiration to become the go-to EU leader for Washington. And yet, siding with Trump would lay bare a lack of commitment to Europe and especially the defence of Ukraine, for which Meloni had previously shown constant support. At the ensuing London Summit on Ukraine, Meloni couldn’t hide her discomfort.[2] The resolve of European leaders – spearheaded by the French president Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer – in advocating for a strategic Europe seemed to shelve Meloni’s carefully crafted plan to leverage her bilateral ties with the Trump administration to bolster her role in Europe – even at the cost of fragmenting its unity. Meanwhile, at home, her junior coalition partner Matteo Salvini openly sided with Trump, in an attempt to present himself as an alternative to Meloni and to win consensus among that sizable chunk of the Italian public opinion who wants to see an end to the war in Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, and United States of America

68. Trump’s Exit from the Paris Agreement: An Opportunity for the EU to Back South Africa’s Climate Leadership

Author:: Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele and Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2025,[1] South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa – who currently chairs the G20, the first African leader to do so – outlined a bold and assertive agenda centred on global cooperation, inclusive growth and sustainable development. His address included a renewed call for transparency in the allocation of climate resources and the reform of the global financial architecture that has long been criticised as too rigid to support long-term sustainable development in the Global South.[2]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

69. Transformation of Turkish-Russian Relations: Rivalry and Cooperation in Eurasia and the Levant

Author:: Mustafa Aydin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Relations between Russia and Türkiye have developed considerably since the end of the Cold War. What began as energy trade in the late 1980s evolved into cooperation in business, energy, construction, tourism, politics and even security. Behind the ever-expanding cooperation lies a mistrust fueled by historical enmity and regional rivalry that occasionally leads to confrontation. As the two countries seek to shape their competitive cooperation beyond the current geopolitical challenges and constraints of regional security and alliances, the question of whether they could find ways to advance their partnership is of paramount importance and has regional and global implications. This paper seeks to understand how they have managed their conflict-ridden past to develop a modus operandi in the post-Cold War world by proposing a new conceptual model, namely “competitive cooperation” or “coopetition”, to understand the relationship that developed over the last 30 years in different geographical regions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Rivalry, and Competitive Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, Mediterranean, and Black Sea

70. Leaders in the Middle East and North Africa: How Ideology Shapes Foreign Policy

Author:: Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: It is almost always the case that any Introduction to International Relations course teaches the contributions of Kenneth Waltz to the field, firstly through his grandiose formulation of a theory: it should be simple, parsimonious, abstract, and accordingly, one needs to move away from reality as much as possible to increase the theory’s explanatory and predictive capacity.1 Moving the individual and state level of analyses aside, Waltz simplifies his theory of international politics at the system/structural level and, with his neorealist theory becoming the dominant approach for a large part of the twentieth century, it put the state in a sort of black box, purposefully ignored individual actors, and targeted the maximum degree of abstraction as possible. In Leaders in the Middle East and North Africa: How Ideology Shapes Foreign Policy, which consists of seven chapters (one introduction chapter, four empirical chapters, one theoretical conclusions chapter and one policy implications chapter), Özdamar and Canbolat aim to shed light on foreign policy belief patterns of leaders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), highlighting divergences across them and comparing them to the average world leadership. In the process, and in total opposition to Waltz’s claim, the authors argue that advancing “the actor-specific empirical studies zeroing in on agent behaviors and decisions in the future” is “the only way for IR to establish itself as a scientific discipline” (p. 148). In other words, as opposed to the structural approaches, the authors propound that less abstraction and a more actor-specific, nuanced, and tailored approach would provide significant opportunities for the IR discipline to be scientific.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Book Review, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

71. Political and Legal Foundations of Russia’s Strategic Planning in the Field of Nuclear Weapons

Author:: Tatyana Kashirina
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: RUSSIA’S official position on nuclear deterrence is outlined in several strategic planning documents concerning national security and defense. The deterioration of the international situation, worsening Russian- American and Russian-European relations, and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2013-2014 prompted Moscow to revise its Military Doctrine in 2014. This document places significant emphasis on the increased activity of military forces unfriendly to Russia and foreign nations operating in territories adjacent to the Russian Federation and its allies. Among the key external military dangers are threats to global stability (which is primarily based on the possession of nuclear weapons) and regional stability through the development and deployment of strategic missile defense systems that disrupt the established balance of power in the nuclear missile domain. Other threats include the implementation of the “global strike” concept, intentions to deploy weapons in space, the proliferation of high-precision nonnuclear strategic systems, and the spread of weapons of mass destruction, missiles, and missile technologies.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

72. Assad Regime's Rapid Fall Rattles Russia's Middle East Strategy

Author:: Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria seriously weakens Russia’s position in the Middle East and its ability to provide security to its allies. After 13 years of supporting the dictatorship, Russia is also losing its ability to influence the political situation in Syria and its neighbourhood The Russian government’s priority is to keep the right to use the military bases in the country—a naval base in Tartus and an air base in Khmeimim. Losing them would make it difficult for Russia to conduct military operations in the Mediterranean and Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, Influence, and Military Bases
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, and Syria

73. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

74. China Building Up BRICS as Important Foreign Policy Tool

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: BRICS is useful for China in its rivalry with the U.S., mainly as a tool to influence developing countries. It is also an important element of strategic cooperation with Russia and a platform for dialogue with India. China does not care about BRICS integration, instead it wants to consolidate the group’s participants to further China’s goals.. The EU’s response to this should include effective support for developing countries and a subjective approach to their demands for global governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, BRICS, Rivalry, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

75. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:: Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

76. Connecting Opportunities: Greece’s Strategic Role in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

Author:: Dimitris Gavalas and George Dikaios
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This policy brief discusses the role of Greece in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), focusing mainly on those aspects related to infrastructure and ports and the global supply chain. It suggests a series of different actions and highlights different angles that Greece should take into account if it wants to be a major player in the establishment of the Corridor and its gateway to Europe/European Union. – IMEC will be a game changer in international trade relationships, regional tensions, and political challenges. – The main obstacles to IMEC’s establishment are the conflicts in the Middle East and other major national interests of key actors (such as the Chinese monopoly in the region). – Focus is given to port infrastructure, as ports are pivotal to the global supply chain. India pays significant attention to its ports, while the Port of Piraeus is the largest port in Eastern Europe. – The critical role and position of Greece are highlighted, underlying its role as a hub that connects India and the Middle East to Europe. – Greece needs to invest in infrastructure development, build a skilled workforce, and attract foreign investments. – Suggestions for establishing a successful commercial corridor between India and Greece are given, focusing on mutual interests and growth opportunities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Trade, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, India, and Greece

77. Examining Political Parties’ Perspectives on Foreign Policy through Their Election Manifestos: 2023 General Elections in Türkiye

Author:: Ibrahim Yılmaz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The election manifestos, published by political parties before a general election, provide important information about what the countries’ domestic and foreign policies might be like. In Türkiye, it might be argued that the attitudes of political parties toward foreign policy are important to voters. Political parties in Türkiye state, in general, their approach to foreign policy in their general election manifestos. The aim of this study is related to the approaches of political parties’ foreign policy perspectives. The perspectives of political parties on foreign policy are examined through their 2023 general election manifestos. More specifically, the aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, to understand how much importance political parties give to the issue of foreign policy in their election manifestos and secondly, to examine what are the raised key issues in foreign policy within the election manifestos.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

78. Islamophobia, Race and Global Politics with Nazia Kazi (Episode 27)

Author:: Nazia Kazi and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This week’s episode offers a powerful introduction to the scope of Islamophobia in the United States. The legacy of Barack Obama and the mainstream media’s typically negative portrayals of Muslims offer incisive examples into the vast impact of Islamophobia – connected to the long history of racism – both within the borders of the United States, and as a matter of foreign policy and global politics. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) addresses these issues with “Islamophobia, Race and Global Politics (https://www.amazon.com/Islamophobia-R...) ” author and Stockton University Professor Nazia Kazi (https://drnaziakazi.com/) .
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Race, Islamophobia, and Global Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

79. What Lies Ahead for Syria: A Conversation with Dr. Omar Dahi (Episode 25)

Author:: Omar Dahi and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: A complex array of domestic, regional, and international factors contributed to the rise of Hafez Al Assad as president of Syria in 1970 and the ultimate demise of his son, Bashar Al Assad on December 8, 2024 – thirteen years after the Syrian people unsuccessfully rose up peacefully as part of the regional phenomena commonly referred to as the Arab Spring. Located at the center of geopolitical competition between Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, the nation of Syria will continue to play an instrumental role in regional politics, which in turn impacts U.S. interests in the oil-rich Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

80. Race, Women and the Global War on Terror with Sherene Razack (Episode 30)

Author:: Sherene Razack
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This episode of the Race and Rights podcast features Professor Sherene Razack (https://gender.ucla.edu/person/sheren...) discuss how racialized Muslim bodies and gender are constructed by global white supremacy that produces and sustains networks, affinities and ideas in the so-called Global War on Terror. Sherene Razack (https://gender.ucla.edu/person/sheren...) is a Distinguished Professor and the Penny Kanner Endowed Chair in Women’s Studies at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and author of the Nothing Has to Make Sense: Upholding White Supremacy through Anti-Muslim Racism (https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/nothing...) (University of Minnesota 2022).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Race, Women, Islamophobia, War on Terror, and White Supremacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

81. 50-30: From the Fall of Saigon to U.S. Political Participation

Author:: Duy Linh Tu, Lan Cao, and Hoi Trinh
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Duy Linh Tu, Dean of Academic Affairs and Professor of Professional Practice at the Columbia Journalism School, moderates a discussion with Lan Cao of the Chapman University School of Law and Hoi Trinh, Executive Director, Vietnamese Overseas Initiative for Conscience Empowerment, that traces the arc of Vietnamese American political engagement over the past 50 years. Co-hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and the Columbia Journalism School, this program was part of the three-day series "50-30: From War to Peace in Vietnam and the United States," held at Columbia University from April 30 – May 2, 2025.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Vietnam War, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:: Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

82. What the White House and Congress Can Do to Prevent Global Mass Atrocities

Author:: Federica D'Alessandra
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Unites States has long recognized that preventing and responding to mass atrocities is both a moral responsibility and in its national security interest. Commitment to atrocity prevention and response has long enjoyed broad bipartisan support, and the U.S. government has long been a global leader on the issue. In 2011, the United States was the first country to establish an interagency body dedicated to atrocity prevention. Ever since, each Republican and Democratic administration—with the support of Congress—has taken additional, important steps toward implementing this objective. In 2019, under President Donald Trump, the United States was the first country to enact federal legislation addressing global mass atrocities. The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act mandates the White House to report annually to Congress on government-led atrocity prevention efforts. Under the act, the second Trump administration will again be required to report to Congress by mid-2025, raising the question: What is in store for the atrocity prevention agenda under Trump 2.0? This paper reviews the atrocity prevention track record of the first Trump administration and other relevant action taken so far in this second term to parse out what efforts to sustain and uphold U.S. atrocity prevention obligations could look like under Trump’s second White House. This paper highlights how a number of steps the administration has already taken, including but not limited to the recently announced reorganization of the U.S. Department of State and the effective dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), unless promptly addressed, will raise dire challenges for the readiness and capacity of the State Department and other relevant agencies tasked with operationalizing U.S. commitments to this end. Accordingly, this paper advances a number of actionable recommendations that both the White House and the U.S. Congress should urgently consider to ensure the administration stands ready and capable to fulfill its obligations under the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant legislation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

83. Trump’s Latin America Policy: Inconsistencies and Vacillations

Author:: Steve Ellner
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s volatility on foreign policy reveals internal divisions within Trumpism. But when threats and populism lose their momentum, the anti-communist hawks may get their way.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Latin America

84. Prioritizing Patani? Indonesian Human Security Diplomacy Towards the Issue of Thailand’s Deep South Provinces

Author:: Sidik Jatmika, Zain Maulana, and Ajeng Puspa Marlinda
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This study examines the reasons for Indonesian President Jokowi's foreign policy not to prioritise human security diplomacy towards the Patani issue, specifically the acceleration of peace talks between the Thai government and representatives of the combatants from Thailand's Deep South provinces. A qualitative methodology was employed, involving 22 in-depth interviews with elite and grassroots participants from Thailand and Indonesia. These included 7 interviews with State actors and 15 with non-State actors, 4 of whom were combatants. The findings are discussed in relation to the existing literature on the diffusion and implementation of Indonesian human security diplomacy in relation to peace issues in Patani. The article argues for a more proactive and effective diplomacy including the strengthening the role of Islamic non-governmental organisations to help resolve security issues and conflicts there.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

85. Europe’s next watershed – how liberal Europe should react to Trump 2.0

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his “America first” doctrine inevitably poses a fundamental challenge for the EU. Trump’s second presidency represents a new watershed moment: the policies of the next US administration are not just likely to put Europe at a global disadvantage, they will threaten its core objectives of prosperity, sustainability, security, and democracy. This is why European countries will have to act decisively to safeguard the bloc’s unity and strengthen its autonomy in a changed world. Assuming that a second Trump administration will resemble the first would be a serious error. Trump has become more extreme in his policy positions, while facing fewer constraints and operating in a more favourable international environment. As a result, preparing for a worst-case scenario may be a wise approach. Trump’s adversarial, zero-sum approach to international trade is likely to undermine the structures and processes of multilateral economic governance. Measures such as tariffs also threaten the EU’s growth and competitiveness and risk deepening divisions within the bloc. Global progress towards greater sustainability is certain to suffer. A disengagement on behalf of the US from its leadership role in environmental and climate governance will be a significant setback in these efforts. Should the US turn away from its climate goals, this would send a strong signal to other countries that these objectives are no longer a priority. On security, any potential benefit that a Trump presidency might produce in terms of strengthening EU unity is strongly undermined by his stance on Ukraine, which is set to increase the threat facing Europe from Russia. A US-imposed ceasefire would be no guarantee of lasting peace or security for Ukraine or for Europe. In response, the EU and its members will have to take a much bolder and more proactive role, sharply increasing Europe’s own military capabilities and spending. Policies that signal a tolerance for the use of open and covert force, in violation of international law, will also have profound consequences for global security. Far-right and anti-democratic forces within Europe are likely to be emboldened by an incoming Trump government. His actions to exploit Europe’s political divides are set to put significant pressure on European integration – a project Trump will have no qualms in undermining. The entrenchment and normalisation of Trump’s style of populistic, divisive politics and ‘us against them’ rhetoric risks eroding democratic debate more broadly. His amplification of falsehoods and disinformation will undermine public trust in the US and beyond, and could also boost political figures adopting similar strategies in Europe. There is strong potential for Trump’s anti-establishment narrative to gain further ground in Europe, and Europe’s illiberal, regressive and new-nativist forces will no doubt seek to harness this to increase their power. Should they be successful, there is a very real risk of the EU becoming hollowed-out and ineffectual. In this context, achieving consensus and acting with unity will be a greater challenge than ever for the EU27. Those within the EU who are prepared to take the necessary steps to rise to the challenge posed by Trump may have to explore unconventional forms of cooperation to act effectively. Moving forward in this way poses its own legal and political risks. But with European democracy at stake, it may be the only path to achieving the necessary level of ambition and unity to mount a strong response to Trump 2.0.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, Sustainability, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Europe

86. Assessing China’s Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses

Author:: Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons. This policy brief analyzes that trend by presenting three overarching analytical lenses, or categories of factors, that shape Beijing’s nuclear decision-making: leadership, weapons systems and military organizations, and official policies and doctrine. On leadership, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping likely sees nuclear weapons granting prestige and growing in relevance, but his views on nuclear weapons’ efficacy are less clear. On weapons systems and military organizations, the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal provides the country’s leaders with new options, which could shift those leaders’ intentions over time. Implementation of those options, though, runs through often-corrupt People’s Liberation Army military organizations. On official policies and doctrine, Beijing possibly sees its professed stance as a country that does not engage in U.S.- and Russian-style arms buildups as a source of diplomatic influence, particularly in the developing world or Global South. Separately, the circumstances where China’s nuclear no-first-use policy would face a true test—for example, during a major Taiwan contingency—are precisely the moments when Beijing would have massive incentives to selectively interpret or simply abandon that policy. In the near term, China’s official nuclear weapons policies will likely stay the same, so the gap between rhetoric and action will grow. A bigger arsenal and more nuclear rhetoric and signaling will, over time, also shape future Chinese coercion campaigns. In response, U.S. policymakers should commission an intelligence assessment of Xi’s views of specific nuclear crises, pressure China to issue more explanation of its nuclear policies and capabilities, and expand information sharing about missile tests on a reciprocal basis. U.S. policymakers should also make an authoritative policy statement on what would constitute China reaching nuclear parity with the United States and counter China’s nuclear buildup using both conventional and nuclear capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

87. Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire

Author:: Jacob Stokes, Kareen Hart, Ryan Claffey, and Thomas Corel
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Acontingency across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to reshape the Indo-Pacific and even global security environment. This report explores how states beyond the United States and Taiwan would respond to a major Taiwan contingency. It defines a major Taiwan contingency as a conflict that might start in the so-called gray zone between peace and war but clearly escalates into a larger campaign that has unification as the near-term objective of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Specifically, the report examines how geopolitical interests, values, and material power might determine the approaches of countries across the region and the world. Regional and global responses to a major Taiwan contingency would depend heavily on structural factors present at the time it happens, as well as the specific circumstances of the situation. The report details four key structural factors that would shape states’ responses: the specific nature of the Taiwan contingency, the global trade and technology landscape when the contingency occurs, Taiwanese and U.S. capabilities and responses, and the spectrum of intervention options. Beyond those structural factors, the response from four groups of states would play a major role in determining the outcome of a major Taiwan contingency. The first group is Japan and the Philippines. Both U.S. allies would be on the front lines of a Taiwan conflict and host U.S. forces but are also the most exposed to military retaliation from China. The second group is close U.S. allies and partners South Korea, Australia, and India. Their locations are farther from the main battlespace, but each would have to consider how its response would affect its own security concerns and relations with the United States in the future. Regional and global responses to a major Taiwan contingency would depend heavily on structural factors present at the time it happens, as well as the specific circumstances of the situation. The third group includes the other states in Southeast Asia. Thailand and Singapore would have to consider their defense ties to Washington, while Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar might get requests from Beijing. Other Southeast Asian states would adopt a studiously neutral stance. The fourth group is Europe and the rest of the world. European states now pay more attention to Taiwan, and many see parallels with Ukraine’s plight. But uneven ties with China and a lack of power projection capabilities would mostly limit direct European intervention. Meanwhile, the developing world would likely side with Beijing. And it lacks the political will—much less the proximity or military power—to come to Taipei’s aid. Several findings flow from the analysis: First, it is unlikely that any other states will come to Taiwan’s aid if Taiwan does not fight fiercely and the United States does not intervene on a large scale. Second, geographic proximity increases a country’s stake in the defense of Taiwan, but that same closeness also makes countries more vulnerable to PRC retaliation. Third, any Taiwan contingency would cause massive economic harm, so states would try to balance protecting their economic interests—especially access to high-end semiconductors—with ending the conflict just to stem the disruption caused by the fighting. Fourth, states’ choices will reflect their national interests and values, but those responses will depend to a significant degree on what others do. U.S. policymakers should take the following actions to best position Washington to mount an effective coalition defense of Taiwan during a contingency, should those policymakers choose to do so: Prioritize preventing a Taiwan contingency. Reinforce with Taipei how much would hinge on Taiwan’s contingency response, both in terms of demonstrating will and capabilities. Expect limited contributions but be creative in exploring what in the spectrum of intervention might be possible. Deepen intra-Asian and Euro-Asian security ties that include the United States. Support and, where possible, facilitate the growth of intra-Asian security ties that do not rely on the United States as the hub. Plan for humanitarian evacuation operations as a means to encourage Southeast Asian countries to think through a Taiwan contingency.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Coalition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

88. Options of Jordan Foreign Policy in Light of “Deal of the Century” Regionally and Internationally

Author:: Sahar Tarawneh
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study aimed to highlight the options of Jordan's foreign policy and its political behavior in light of the Deal of the Century regionally and internationally, in addition to identify it by examine the political conditions that prompted the US administration to propose this project, and by clarify its terms and the Jordanian popular and official position on it, as well as future features of the deal of the century, in particular after the American President lose / Donald Trump, and leave of Benjamin Netanyahu from the Israeli prime minister.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Regional Politics, and Deal of the Century
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and United States of America

89. From Soft Balancing to Bandwagoning: Contemporary Brazil–Us Relations in South America

Author:: Augusto Rinaldi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Using the soft balancing concept and a comparative methodology, I analyze the diplomatic strategies mobilized by Brazil towards the US in South America from 2003 to 2022. The empirical results suggest that in the last two decades, Brazil moved away from the role of “soft balancer” during Lula’s and Rousseff’s mandates (2003–2016) to a “tactical convergence” in Temer's (2016–2018) to “bandwagoning” in Bolsonaro's (2019–2022). The main drivers for these different strategies are domestic and regional changes. Approaching this thematic contributes to a better understanding of Brazilian regional priorities and abilities to deal with the US in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Competitive Balance, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

90. Starr Forum: The US and the World Under Trump: The First 100 Days

Author:: Juliette N. Kayyem and Kori Schake
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The US and the World Under Trump: The First 100 Days: Wednesday, April 16th, 2025. Juliette Kayyem and Kori Schake analyzed President Trump’s first 100 days in office and what this means for our nation and the world. Speakers: Juliette Kayyem is the faculty chair of the Homeland Security and Security and Global Health Projects at Harvard University and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. She also serves as a senior national security analyst for CNN where she has been described as CNN’s “go to” for disasters. A contributing writer to The Atlantic, Professor Kayyem has a weekly security segment on NPR’s Boston station WGBH. Her most recent book, "The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters," was described in a New Yorker profile as an “engagingly urgent blueprint for rethinking our approach to disaster preparedness and response.” She served as President Obama’s assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Homeland Security. Kori Schake leads the foreign and defense policy team at the American Enterprise Institute. She is the author of "Safe Passage: the Transition from British to American Hegemony," and a contributing writer at the Atlantic, War on the Rocks, and Bloomberg. Before joining AEI, Dr. Schake was the deputy director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. She has had a distinguished career in government, working at the US State Department, the US Department of Defense, and the National Security Council at the White House. She has also taught at Stanford, West Point, Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, National Defense University, and the University of Maryland. She has written additional books, including "America vs the West: Can the Liberal World Order Be Preserved?" and is coeditor, along with former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, of “Warriors & Citizens: American Views of Our Military.” Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Public Health, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

91. What’s next for Ukraine and Europe? A conversation with Dmytro Kuleba

Author:: Dmytro Kuleba, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: What’s next for Ukraine and Europe? A conversation with Dmytro Kuleba, former foreign minister of Ukraine: Tuesday, April 8th, 2025. Speaker: Dmytro Kuleba is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and served as the foreign minister of Ukraine from March 2020-September 2024. Prior to that, he was deputy prime minister on matters of European relations from August 2019 to March 2020. He is internationally recognized as one of the most influential diplomats of his generation and a global champion for democracy, freedom, and resilience. Discussants: Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program at the Center for International Studies (CIS). She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, the political cult of WWII, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and US-Russian Partnerships in Science. She is director of the MIT-Ukraine Program at CIS.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

92. The Rise and Decline of Brazil as a Peacekeeper

Author:: Geraldine Rosas Duarte, Letícia Carvalho, and Dawisson Belem Lopes
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The article investigates the trajectory and transformations of Brazil’s involvement in UN peacekeeping operations, seeking to explain the recent hesitation to assume a leadership role in contrast to previous periods, particularly during the two initial presidential terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011). It highlights the influence of international and domestic factors on Brazil’s new stance, including changes in the nature of UN peacekeeping missions and the impact of the deep politico-economic crisis Brazil experienced between 2013 and 2022. The shifts in foreign policy during the governments of Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro resulted in a more isolationist view and a significant reduction in Brazil’s participation in peacekeeping operations. The article concludes by analyzing the need for a strategic reassessment by Brazil of the dynamics of peacekeeping operations and the domestic challenges faced by the new Lula da Silva government to realign its future participation with its national interests and capabilities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

93. The Elusive Saudi-Israeli Normalization Deal: Why an Agreement is Likely to Fall Short of Expectations

Author:: Robert Mogielnicki
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel will likely happen eventually but is unlikely to transform the Middle East
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

94. Trump’s Alternate Reality in the Middle East

Author:: Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: With his recent foray into drastic measures to resolve the Israel-Palestine continuum, could there be a method to the madness of King Trump?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Real Estate, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

95. President Trump’s Policies in the Middle East

Author:: Raphael Cohen-Almagor
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The U.S. president’s pragmatic approach and his out-of-the-box bold ideas may bring a positive change to both Israel and the Palestinians provided they will be translated into action plans carefully and through sensitive communication with all concerned stakeholders
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

96. A Resurgent Trump Returns to a Turbulent Middle East

Author:: Paul Salem
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump’s unpredictable yet forceful leadership is entering a region in flux, offering both challenges and opportunities for his second term
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

97. Donald Trump and the Art of Bending Reality

Author:: Gabriele Cosentino
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The gravity-defying political comeback of Donald Trump is the pinnacle of the chaotic career of an extreme risk taker with little concern for established norms. But his willingness to upend rules and bend reality to suit his vision might push U.S. and global politics to the breaking point
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Norms, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

98. Trump’s Return: What It Could Mean for Palestine and the Region

Author:: Ramzy Baroud
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the context of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts raises questions regarding his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

99. Trump 2.0: Where Rhetoric Meets Reality

Author:: Diana Bartelli Carlin
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The new president has made big promises, but can he keep them?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

100. Round Two: Trump’s Foreign Policy Takes on New Challenges

Author:: William B. Quandt
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump will have to manage the continuing conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and the rising power of China as he navigates the beginning of his second term
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Ukraine, Middle East, and United States of America

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