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1. Iran’s New Budget Perpetuates Economic Challenges

Author:
Henry Rome
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs. On January 11, President Ebrahim Raisi submitted his budget proposal to the Majlis for the Iranian year 2023/24. Drafted amid the most severe protests the Islamic Republic has faced since its establishment in 1979, the proposal includes no economic olive branches to the people and avoids structural reforms that could help rein in inflation and fuel growth.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Budget, Democracy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2. Egypt: The Price of Inaction on Tax Reform

Author:
Omar Ghannam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Like public finances elsewhere, the public finances of the Egyptian state suffer from a semi-permanent deficit. Although a limited deficit in state budgets is acceptable for most prevailing economic theories, the persistent and worsening deficit in public budgets leads to severe phases during which the economy suffers. During periods of economic prosperity, soft loans are easily accessible, which encourages states to rely on borrowing as a secondary source of financing for extended periods until it becomes a permanent source of financing. The financial market eventually puts an end to every period of easy borrowing, forcing the government to face the reality it has tried to avoid. Under such circumstances, governments have three tools at their disposal: borrowing at the highest interest rate, austerity and disabling services and social protection programs, and raising taxes and customs duties. Borrowing at the highest interest rate is every government's first choice because it does not require a reformulation of the social, economic, and political contract between the state and its citizens. But the price of such a policy is a worsened deficit. Borrowing, before or after a crisis, is not a solution but merely a postponement of the crisis, in the hope that the market recovers. When it is no longer possible to borrow amid the worsening economic conditions of a crisis, the government resorts to other tools with varying degrees of risk. Austerity is a recipe for widespread social outcry and has catastrophic effects on the poor and middle classes as well as the overall economy due to decreased purchasing power. To overcome the crisis with the least social tension, the state can also resort to taxation to generate possible revenues whether from the economy as a whole or the sectors and classes with concentrated surpluses of value. The more severe the crisis, the more the government is forced to use additional tools and impose strict measures. Debts are nothing but deferred taxes, and taxes remain key in every economic crisis. When a global economic crisis looms, questions abound. Could the crisis be approached with fewer social and economic burdens and with more room for maneuver? In this context, this paper will discuss the tax policies adopted in the past few years in Egypt and how they could have been more effective. The primary role of taxes is to meet the government's financial needs to implement its role under the social contract, whether formal or informal. Therefore, taxes are a convenient introduction to understanding the political economy of any state. Tax policies are an essential tool for achieving macroeconomic goals, and they directly reflect the political and socioeconomic considerations driving a country’s economy. This paper will address the main role of taxes in financing the requirements of the social contract from the perspective of the adequacy and effectiveness of tax collection.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Reform, Finance, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

3. Entrepreneurship, Youths, and Women Economic Inclusion in Cameroon

Author:
Laurent Brice Nsengue, Bin Joachem Meh, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Bentham’s theory of utilitarian morality leads us to know that the purpose of economic activity is to ensure social progress for the happiness of the greatest number. Thus, excluding people from an economic system without considering their interests is considered a destruction of the common good. According to the United Nations (1962), population is one of the most important factors of economic productivity, as it influences the rate of development of a country. Women represent 49.6% of the world’s population and young people aged 10 to 24 represent 15.5% of the world’s population (UN World Youth Report, 2020; World Bank, 2020). In Cameroon, youth and women represent more than 60% of the population, but remain the most economically excluded (BUCREP, 2005). This reality appears to be a challenge for a country that wants to be an emerging country by 2035. The main objective of this paper is to show the role that entrepreneurial development could play in promoting the economic inclusion of youth and women in Cameroon. It is expected to raise awareness among public authorities as well as the private sector of the importance of economic inclusion of youth and women through entrepreneurship development. Based on studies carried out by credible international and local institutions, we focus on the challenges of entrepreneurship in the context of the economic inclusion of youth and women and the opportunity of entrepreneurship for the economic inclusion of young people and women in Cameroon.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Entrepreneurship, Discrimination, Youth, Equality, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

4. Russia's Influence in MENA After a Year of War in Ukraine

Author:
Matthew Czekaj, Iulia-sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks with scholars Iulia-Sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas on Russia's current standing in the Middle East a year since re-invading Ukraine. How has Russian aggression in Ukraine redrawn Moscow’s relationships in the MENA region? And as the Middle East increasingly becomes a key area of global great power competition, is Russia still a meaningful player there, politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Politics, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa

5. Sanctions, Economic Statecraft, and Venezuela’s Crisis

Author:
César Rodríguez
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This case study summarizes the evidence on the effect on Venezuela’s economic and social conditions of economic sanctions and other actions of economic statecraft taken by the United States and its allies in response to the country’s political crisis. The preponderance of evidence indicates that sanctions and other statecraft measures—including the formal recognition of a government with no de facto control over the territory—have had a strong and significant negative effect on the Venezuelan economy. These actions have made a sizable contribution to declining oil production, exacerbating the country’s fiscal crisis, and contributing to one of the largest documented peacetime economic contractions in modern history. Many arguments commonly voiced to dispute the effects of sanctions, such as those that appeal to temporal precedence of other causes of the country’s crisis, are either factually incorrect or premised on fallacious logic. Reforming the sanctions regime will be a complex task, given the interaction with other statecraft measures and a broader toxification of the country’s economic relations. Reform attempts should include the introduction of an oil-for-essentials program, support for political humanitarian agreements, issuance of clearer compliance guidelines, introducing an explicit differentiation between strategic and nonstrategic sanctions, and seeking multilateral alignment with international actors on key strategic issues including that of government recognition.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Sanctions, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

6. Quo Vadis, Belarus?

Author:
Zoran Meter
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Year 2021 was one of the most turbulent for Belarus since its independence after the collapse of the USSR. In the West Belarus is sometimes called the “European North the global economic crisis in 2008 without too many problems and internal turmoil. Belarus has also successfully overcome problems with its neighbor the Russian Federation caused by Korea” and its longtime president Alexander Lukashenko, whom the West no longer recognizes, is dubbed “Europe’s Last Dictator.” Although this country is still to a large extent dug in its communist past, it has overcome disputes related to the content and dynamics of the implementation of the establishment of a Federal State between Belarus and Russia to which they previously committed.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Leadership, Dictatorship, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

7. Digitalization of Special Economic Zones in China

Author:
Jie (Jeanne) Huang
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
Special Economic Zones (SEZ) have become the forefront in China to test legal and technological reforms for digital trade. This chapter explores three cutting-edge case studies in China’s SEZs: the Beijing blockchain-based Single Window deposit box; newly established big data exchanges in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai SEZs; and pilot projects in financial, medical care and automobile industries to flow data across the border in the Shanghai SEZ. It scrutinizes China's experiments in the context of its applications to join CPTPP and DEPA. It argues that the development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade is shifting away from the traditional paradigm that uses international commitments to push domestic reform or make domestic law according to international law. The development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade relies much more on China’s domestic needs than what FTAs negotiations require. FTAs are increasingly becoming a tool for China to shape international law rather than a benchmark for legislating domestic Chinese law.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8. Beijing Winter Olympics 2022: Sports, Law, and Policies

Author:
Tim Harcourt, Deborah Healey, Keiji Kawai, and Yang Pei
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were hosted amid the Covid-19 pandemic and surrounded by concerns and controversies. This Understanding China Brief results from a roundtable discussion organized by the China Studies Centre and the Centre for Asia and Pacific Law of Sydney University on 3 February 2022 to examine four aspects of the Beijing Olympics: boycotts, COVID- 19 control, law reform, and the economics of the Olympics.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Sports, Conflict, Olympics, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

9. Comparing Older Adults’ Mental Health Needs and Access to Treatment in the U.S. and Other High-Income Countries

Author:
Munira Z. Gunja, Arnav Shah, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
Nearly all U.S. adults over 65 have some mental health coverage through Medicare. Whether that coverage is sufficient is in question. Comparing mental health care access and affordability for U.S. Medicare beneficiaries with that for older adults in peer nations could highlight coverage gaps and point to opportunities for improvement.
Topic:
Economics, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Medicare
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

10. Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices

Author:
Christof Ruhl
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Sanctions against the Russian Federation are developing so fast that it is hard to keep track of them and even harder to see a consistent narrative as events unfold. But there is one. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of energy and commodities. A persistent balance of payment surplus is the source of its financial strength, in terms of both current income and the financial assets previously accumulated by “fortress Russia.” Oil, gas, and coal exports constitute the most valuable revenue streams and are therefore prime targets of sanctions policy.[1] The problem is that energy sanctions will backfire badly if they lead to price increases large enough to derail the economic performance of sanctioning countries.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Global Focus