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6731. Environmentalism, Free Trade and Regionalism in Theoretical Perspective: An Unholy Developmental Trinity?

Author:
Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Why do policy outcomes invariably fall short of expectations? Almost all studies of this puzzling topic over the last generation have revolved around a study of the limits of rational behavior. Although this literature is extraordinarily enriching, as society becomes more complex, the gap between policy intentions and outcomes seems to be widening, and constrained rational behavior appears to be accounting for increasingly less of that gap. Three incompatible policy areas today are environmentalism, free trade, and regionalism. This investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of the principles and key dimensions of those three policy areas, then transforms Benjamin Cohen's unholy monetary trinity into an unholy developmental trinity to offer a theoretical framework within which this incompatible policy-mix may be explained.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance

6732. Assessing the Rules - Power Debate in Farm Trade: A Case Study of the Canadian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Asking "How have trade disputes over agriculture been settled in North America?", this study examines 11 appeals made to binational panels established under Chapter 19 of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement of 1989. By disaggregating the process of dispute settlement into complaints, rulings, country responses, and overall settlement, it reassesses an old debate (whether dispute outcomes are influenced by collective rules or the pursuit of self-help) and sheds new light. Whereas extant studies make the argument, through a study of appeals to G.A.T.T., that collective rules temper the blind pursuit of self-help, this study makes the argument that self-help is equally important an explanation. Whereas the former focus on outcomes which are non-binding, this study focuses on outcomes which are binding. Implications are drawn, at a time when domestic interests, nationalistic sentiments, and supranational pursuits compete to influence policy outcomes at all levels, for agriculture, integration in North America, and dispute settlement at the multilateral level.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and North America

6733. Private Equity Investment in Hungary: the Competitive Edge as a Force for Innovation

Author:
Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
At the conference opening, György Surányi, President of the National Bank of Hungary, outlined Hungary's successful efforts to rejuvenate economic activity with the prospect of European Union membership approaching . Following the successful implementation of economic policies aimed at establishing a market economy, for the first time in 25 years Hungary is gradually moving towards sustainable economic growth. Real GDP gains of almost 4 percent per annum are evident without accompanying deterioration of the external accounts or increases in inflation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

6734. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

6735. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

6736. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

6737. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America

6738. Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series

Author:
Jon Faust
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic level, and instead is fixed at zero in all sample sizes. The paper explores necessary conditions for solving this problem, most notably showing that under weak conditions, forming valid confidence intervals requires that one limit consideration to a finite-dimensional time series model.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Education

6739. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Author:
Jon Faust and John S. Irons
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics

6740. The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter

Author:
Ann L. Owen and Murat F. Iyigun
Publication Date:
05-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Education, and International Trade and Finance