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81. Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?

Author:
Dila Asfuroğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in Türkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in Türkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 2008- 2022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in Türkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Income Inequality, and Populism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

82. Did the February 6-7 Türkiye Earthquake Trigger a Housing Market Bubble? Empirical Insights from Right-tailed Unit-root Tests

Author:
Gökhan Kartal
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study primarily aims to assess whether the destructive earthquakes of February 6-7, 2023 triggered a potential nationwide housing market bubble. Spanning the period from January 2010 to September 2024, the analysis employs Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods to identify bubble formations. The findings reveal significant bubble periods, including January to August 2015, November 2015 to November 2016, May 2018 to January 2019, May to June 2019, and February to December 2023. The latest bubble formation occurred immediately after the earthquake, highlighting a strong link between the disaster and housing market dynamics. While the earthquake’s impact—through abrupt housing stock loss, large-scale displacement, and intensified demand for secure housing—was undeniably a crucial trigger for this bubble, other macroeconomic factors, such as inflationary pressures, low interest rates, and the perception of housing as a lucrative investment, also played a reinforcing role. The Türkiye experience enhances the understanding of speculative cycles in seismic regions, demonstrating how non-economic shocks such as earthquakes can rapidly boost demand and strain housing supply, amplifying speculative behaviour. This bubble, which peaked in May 2023 and gradually deflated, completely dissipated by December 2023. This development can be associated with the policies implemented by economic authorities, including interest rate hikes, restrictive credit measures, as well as the normalisation of conditions across the country following the earthquake. This highlights the need for proactive monitoring and intervention by economic authorities through appropriate economic policies and regulations to address supply-demand imbalances and mitigate the risks of future housing bubbles, particularly in response to external shocks. Furthermore, in response to the study’s findings on earthquake-triggered bubbles, policymakers should prioritise initiatives aimed at strengthening building infrastructure and implementing urban transformation strategies.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Disasters, Earthquake, Speculative Bubbles, and Housing Market
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

83. Determinants of Ecological Footprint in Türkiye: Evidence from the Fourier ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Author:
Mustafa Torun, Cüneyt Kılıç, Ahmet Tayfur Akcan, and Müşerref Arık
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Ecological footprint calculations evaluate sustainability by examining natural resources. The ecological footprint obtained by calculating the number of natural resources per person provides information about the amount of waste produced as well as the natural resources consumed and examines the sustainability of living conditions in the world in this respect. The ecological footprint is one of the frequently encountered topics in the literature in terms of the analysis of environmental impacts. This study examines the factors influencing the Ecological Footprint in Turkey. Using annual data between 1980 and 2018, the relationship of renewable energy consumption, human capital and urbanization variables to the Ecological Footprint is examined. The Fractional Fourier Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test is used in the study. There is a statistically significant relationship between the renewable energy, human capital and urbanization variables and the Ecological Footprint. When the outputs obtained in the study are examined, it is seen that the variables affect the ecological footprint. The increased value of these variables can be used to explain why the Ecological Footprint increased. Increasing industrial activities due to globalization and technological developments, increasing vehicle traffic in cities due to population growth, unplanned urbanization and destruction of green areas due to the sheltering needs of the increasing population, inability of recycling facilities to adapt to the increasing population and unplanned waste management, etc. factors can increase the ecological footprint. However, as urbanization increases, if a correct plan is drawn by taking these factors into consideration, the negative correlation between the ecological footprint and urbanization can be explained. Within the determined plan; Wastewater management, protection of green areas, prevention of unplanned urbanization and efficient use of resources are explanatory at this point. The empirical findings have important policy implications. According to these policy implications, to offset the effects on the ecological footprint, educational activities to raise environmental awareness and adopt energy-efficient lifestyles should be given due importance, various incentives and supports should be implemented and a green-based lifestyle.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, Ecology, and Consumption
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

84. Determinants of Air Transport in the BRICS-T Countries: Findings from Panel Data Analysis

Author:
Şevket Pazarcı, Emre Kılıç, Asım Kar, and Sıla Kale
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the factors that determine air transport in the BRICS countries, which account for approximately 42% of the world’s population and occupy an important position among developing countries in terms of economic size. In more detail, in this study, air transport examines two different models, passenger and freight transport. The research is carried out for the period 1996-2020. Panel data methods were used as analysis methods. According to the results of the analysis, both air passenger transport and air freight transport act together with their macroeconomic and socioeconomic determinants in the long term. Income is positive and significant in the air passenger transportation model, while income is insignificant in the freight transportation model. In addition, inflation, exchange rate, industrialisation and urbanisation on a country basis are important determinants of both air passenger transport and air freight transport for BRICS-T.
Topic:
Economics, Transportation, Data, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Global Focus

85. Aspects of Employment in Ottoman Waqfs Examples of Fatih, Yavuz Selim, and Süleymaniye Waqfs

Author:
Ayşenur Karademir
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study examines the role of Ottoman imperial waqfs as employment institutions, focusing on the salary register EV.HMH.1178, prepared for the Fatih, Yavuz Selim, and Süleymaniye waqfs in the early 18th century. By analyzing the administrative and financial oversight documented in this register, the article explores the redistributive functions of these waqfs and their contribution to sustaining long-term social and economic stability. Special attention is given to the intervention of the central office (Sadr-ı Âli Nezareti/Grand Vizier’s Office) through an imperial decree and the classification of employee roles by workplace. This research contributes to the literature on waqfs by providing insights into their employment systems and administrative practices.
Topic:
Economics, History, Employment, Ottoman Empire, and Waqf
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

86. Investigation of Connectedness Effects in the Euro Region: The Case of the Real Estate Prices Index

Author:
Öznur Taşdöken and Hakan Kahyaoğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Shocks occurring in the housing market among countries using the common currency in the European Union also cause fluctuations in real estate market prices. Therefore, the analysis of the spread and mutual influence of price fluctuations in the real estate market on the economies of countries becomes essential in the implementation of macroeconomic and common monetary policies. In terms of the social and economic impact of the housing market, this information has become the most important source for understanding countries’ investment preferences and price dynamics. Consequently, what initially begins as country-specific shocks in housing markets often evolves into a structure in which these shocks affect housing markets in other countries. Within this framework, the primary objective of this study is to present findings regarding the estimation of parameters related to the interconnectedness of shocks occurring in the housing markets of countries using the single currency of the European Union with other countries’ housing markets.Otherwise, it explores the macroeconomic impacts of countries’ housing markets in the Eurozone due to the mutual interdependence among these countries.The main findings obtained from the study indicate that shocks in the left tail (τ = 0.05) and right tail (τ = 0.95) have a greater impact on connectivity than shocks obtained from median predictions. This demonstrates that relying solely on median-based predictors is not appropriate for examining return transmissions associated with extreme positive/negative events. This is because shocks in the housing market propagate more strongly in the right and left tails than in the median.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Real Estate, Housing Market, and Interconnectedness
Political Geography:
Europe

87. Financing Innovations – Cameroonian Startups and the Rise of Alternative Funding

Author:
Adeline Nembot, Yollande Meli Tankeu, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In Cameroon, startups have always relied on personal resources and bank financing despite their heavy investment requirements. Yet, rigorous collateral and high interest rate requirements limit access to bank loans. As a result in 2021, only 15% of Cameroonian startups had access to formal funding options, while the majority relied on personal savings or informal funding sources (1), such as Informal Saving Groups and Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (ROSCAs). Moreover, according to the Central African Startup Finance Report 2022, funds raised in 2022 by startups in Cameroon remained stable year to year at 7.3 billion francs CFA ($12 million) (2). In 2023, the Africa platform’s report showing the breakdown by country of funds raised by young African startups revealed that Cameroon attracted fewer investors, raising just $4 million, far behind Côte d’Ivoire ($17 million), Senegal ($44 million), Benin ($71 million), Kenya ($88 million), South Africa ($410 million), and Egypt ($640 million) (3). This restricted access hinders startups’ potential to innovate, create jobs, and contribute to economic growth. In this context, there is a need for exploring alternative financing options, which demands a shift from traditional to emergent financing solutions.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Innovation, and Startup
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

88. The Impact of Access to credit on Women’s Entrepreneurship

Author:
Vera Kum
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
This article explores how access to credit and financial resources can help women start and grow their businesses. Anchored within the paradigm of women’s entrepreneurship empowerment and social development, we will first examine from the literature some cases of access to credit in women’s entrepreneurship. A brief analysis of the significance of financial accessibility for female entrepreneurship development follows this. Finally, we will suggest some recommendations that can help decision-makers better formulate more inclusive policies to ensure equitability between males and females regarding credit accessibility for women.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Finance, and Entrepreneurship
Political Geography:
Africa

89. Over-Indebtedness in Central Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Reform Strategies

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The CEMAC region is facing a concerning situation of over-indebtedness, exacerbated by external shocks and the volatility of commodity prices. This brief aims to analyze the structural and economic causes of over-indebtedness in CEMAC countries while formulating policy recommendations to improve debt management and enhance economic resilience. Targeted at policymakers, financial institutions, and regional bodies in Central Africa, this work relies on an econometric analysis using a mixed model (Multilevel Random Effects) based on data from 2010 to 2022. Key indicators include external debt and public debt service. The findings reveal a strong dependence on external debt, while fiscal reforms have a limited short-term impact. Structural reforms are essential to reduce debt vulnerabilities. Additionally, regional coordination is recommended to improve debt sustainability through institutional reforms, increased fiscal discipline, and economic diversification. However, this analysis does not account for potential global economic shocks that could affect the region.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Reform, Diversification, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

90. Illicit Financial Flows in the age of Digitalisation in Africa : Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, countries have witnessed the widespread adoption of new digital technologies for financial transactions, including electronic payments, mobile and online banking, e-commerce, cryptocurrencies, and gambling services. African nations are not exempt from these financial activities, particularly illicit ones. In fact, Africa is losing approximately $88.6 billion annually due to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a sum regarded as a significant loss of development opportunities (1). Such circumstances threaten the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which aims to achieve inclusive and sustainable development across the continent (2). Illicit Financial Flows (IFF) occur when money or capital is illegally earned, utilized, and transferred across borders. Typically, this mechanism is employed with the intent to evade taxes related to trade and fiscal records. While digital technologies can be leveraged to investigate, detect, and disrupt these unlawful transfers of funds, the evolving landscape of online business can exacerbate IFFs by enabling the movement of illegal funds to fraudulent e-commerce companies and online enterprises. Therefore, it is essential to examine the extent to which digital technologies can serve as tools to either mitigate or facilitate IFFs in Africa. This article aims to explore the opportunities and challenges presented by digital technologies and digitalization in relation to IFFs in Africa. To accomplish this, I will utilize secondary data sources from existing literature, including articles, books, and reports from international organizations with expertise in this area.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Digitalization, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Africa

91. Risks and challenges to oil and gas markets in the current Middle East conflict

Author:
Colby Connelly, Emily Stromquist, Karen Young, Yesar Al-Maleki, and Nikolay Kozhanov
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Program on Economics and Energy cordially invites you to a panel discussion of the war-time threats to energy transit along the Red Sea corridor and to regional production facilities, within the context of broader supply-and-demand dynamics. Since Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel and subsequent war in Gaza, hydrocarbon prices have held relatively stable, although attacks by Houthi militants on shipping in the Red Sea could cause long-term market shifts and geographic segmentation. Why have we seen such a low impact on oil prices to date despite profound regional instability? What explains natural gas prices staying at historic lows? Are Gulf oil facilities at risk? What is the outlook for gas production in the Eastern Mediterranean? And how is OPEC considering outside supply competition and near-term demand? To answer these and other questions, MEI has convened five top US and regional energy and geopolitical risk analysts, who include contributors to MEI’s new edited volume Energy Transitions in the Middle East. They will reflect on their assessments of oil and gas markets prior to Oct. 7 as well as share their views on the current risks and challenges for fossil fuel producers in the region.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Oil, Energy, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Gaza, and Red Sea

92. Contractual Origins of Anti-Americanism: Pew 2013 Results

Author:
Cem Birol
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Economic Norms Theory (ENT) implies that anti-modernist and anti-market values flourish in countries where the central authority poorly monitors contracts that bind economic transactions. Decades of research show that ENT astutely predicts civil war and interstate war incidents, as well as people’s support for war, and suicide bombing in defense of Islam. This paper investigates the association between contract enforcement and anti-Americanism, which is the ENT’s core, yet is a statistically under-evaluated implication. Accordingly, in countries with poor economic contract monitoring, power-contending elites can attribute the resultant loss of prosperity to the USA and relatedly spread anti-American values among citizens. It is the urban poor who are cognitively most available to adopt such elite-driven anti-Americanism since they tend to be hurt most socially and economically by unfulfilled market contracts. To investigate this argument, I statistically estimate random intercept models on a sample of Pew Global Attitudes Project’s 2013 survey results. I observe that a three-way interaction among individuals’ urbanity, poverty, and their nations’ poor contract enforcement indicators increase anti-Americanism.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, Urban, Survey, Economic Norms Theory (ENT), Hierarchical Modelling, and Anti-Americanism
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

93. Options for Green-Skilled Migration Partnerships: A Guide for Policymakers

Author:
Helen Dempster and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The green transition is widely expected to lead to high levels of net job creation, with roles distributed across the pay and skill spectrum. To fill these roles, many countries of destination will need to use migration alongside their domestic labour supply. Yet few countries of origin have enough skilled workers to meet their own green transition targets. As a result, any green-skilled migration facilitated by countries of destination should be linked with investments in the training, recruitment, and retention of workers into ‘green’ jobs within countries of origin. This paper explores three models that link training and migration in a partnership framework—fixed-term migration; Global Skill Partnerships; and migration with parallel investments—to maximise both economic development and carbon reduction benefits. For each model, the paper outlines key considerations that should be taken into account along with a worked example. It also includes a "guide," walking policymakers through the different models to understand which would best meet the needs of countries of origin, countries of destination, and employers.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Economic Development, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

94. Analysis of Foreign Trade Between Türkiye and Africa

Author:
Şükrü Cicioğlu and Ryan Hafiz Ahmed İbrahim
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
While enhancing our economic relations with African countries was positioned as a target within Türkiye’s vision, especially after the Cold War, this could only come true in the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, there have been significant trade volume developments. Although Türkiye had a trade deficit with Africa from the mid-90s to the early 2000s, it became a surplus party in the subsequent period due to stagnation and the impacts of various crises. The trade with Africa is primarily with North African countries due to geographical proximity and historical ties. While Africa's share in Türkiye's total foreign trade volume has been gradually increasing, it remains significantly lower compared to Asia and Europe. Relations between the continent and Türkiye haven’t grown stronger yet, mainly because most African countries were former colonies. On the other hand, Türkiye's geographical proximity to Africa offers a significant opportunity to meet African countries' agricultural and food needs. In this context, this study aims to analyze Türkiye’s trade with the African continent and to reveal the opportunities, threats, strengths, and weaknesses this trade offers for both actors. Furthermore, the study provides recommendations to enhance these relations in this framework.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, History, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

95. Decoding China’s Dilemma: The Difficulties Of Economic Reform

Author:
Sunny Cheung
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On November 27, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) unveiled a new policy, titled “Notice on Strengthening Financial Support Measures for the Private Economy (关于强化金融支持举措 助力民营经济发展壮大的通知)” (People’s Bank of China, November 27). The notice introduces a set of 25 measures crafted to reinvigorate the private sector. These prioritize key areas such as technological innovation, green initiatives, and primary support for small to medium-sized enterprises. The package includes increasing financial assistance and gradually enhancing the proportion of loans to private businesses. It underscores the importance of facilitating credit, lowering interest rates, issuing bonds, and other kinds of financial instruments to meet the varied financing needs of private enterprises. This policy measure echoes mandates put forth during the 20th Party Congress in October 2022 and Central Financial Work Conference held at the end of October 2023 in response to China’s deepening economic woes (Xinhua, November 1). This backdrop has prompted policies aimed at addressing the challenges facing the Chinese economy. In October, the PRC National Bureau of Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2 percent year-on-year—worse than expected and marking a contraction since July (RTHK, November 9). This ominous data, which includes price deflation for both July and October this year, is indicative of significant weakness in domestic demand, particularly due to the underperforming real estate market, which affects citizens’ expectations for asset prices. The ongoing economic downturn in China also refutes the notion that economic chaos would clear up after the abandonment of the Zero-Covid policy. This situation is also similar to the Japan-style recession in the 90s in which consumption and investment are further repressed in favor of paying down debt. China’s recent response has been to implement a series of economic stimulus measures in an attempt to revive its weakening national economy.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Business, and Banking
Political Geography:
China and Asia

96. The Chinese Debate on Economic Reform

Author:
Arran Hope
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A steady drumbeat of ominous data and troubling commentary on the state of China’s economy has punctuated the summer months. Reports from the commentariat in the anglosphere have provided diagnostic analysis and detailed potential policy solutions that the Chinese government might pursue. However, China’s central decision makers in the Politburo or in the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), are more likely to take their cues from internal advisors and domestic experts within the PRC than from those outside. As such, one fruitful exercise is to take the temperature of voices within the system to determine the extent to which their perceptions align or diverge from those in the West, and to ascertain which views carry weight with the final arbiters of economic policy in Beijing. By doing so, analysts outside of China may better comprehend the future (mis)steps that China will take as it struggles to achieve its aim of “basically realizing socialist modernization.” In July, the Chinese government held several meetings and released documents pertaining the economy. On July 24 the Politburo met to discuss the economy as it usually does this time of year. But on the same day, a 17-point plan was issued by the NDRC, following on from a 31-point plan co-issued by the State Council and the Central Committee ten days prior. These send a clear message about the concern in government over China’s straitened circumstances. Indeed, just this week, the NDRC announced a new “private economy development bureau” to further support private industry (NDRC, September 4). The assessment of the situation is put bluntly in the Politburo readout: “the current economic system is facing new challenges… insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in some enterprise’s operations, multiple risks in key areas, and a complex and severe external environment.”
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
China and Asia

97. A Belt and Road to Nowhere? Italy on the Frontlines of Europe’s Changing Strategy Toward China

Author:
Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
During her tenure as Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni has been far more active on the international scene than most observers predicted. Within the first ten months of her tenure, she has traveled to capitals across Europe, Asia, and North Africa and has hosted numerous foreign leaders on official visits. In July, Meloni visited Washington, D.C. where she and President Biden affirmed their commitment to deepening collaboration across various areas of shared interests. Meloni’s foreign policy agenda has touched on a range of issues including, but not limited to, European security, migration, energy policy, and international trade. It is on this last issue that Italy’s decision-making might be most impactful. As the Meloni administration reassesses its economic partnerships around the world, Italy’s relations—and by extension the European Union’s (EU) overarching position—towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could witness lasting changes. At the heart of the new government’s economic policy lies its choice of whether to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meloni—along with many members of her cabinet—have voiced skepticism towards the agreement. As such, everything is on the table in the run-up to the decision at the end of the year.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

98. The Demise of Diplomatic Ambiguity: Parsing South Korea’s Estrangement From China

Author:
Matthew Fulco
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In July, the US Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN) visited South Korea for the first time since 1981. Not one, but two of the 560-foot-long warships—which carried a payload of 24 long-range Trident ballistic missiles—surfaced in South Korean waters (Korea JoongAn Daily, July 24, 2023). From Washington and Seoul’s perspective, the SSBN deployment was a pointed reminder to the mercurial North Korean regime to exercise restraint, but the symbolism of the SSBN visit was not lost on China—Pyongyang’s closest ally. For all its military modernization efforts, Beijing has no effective defense against the Ohio-class sub. That South Korea would support the deployment of the SSBNs to its territory illustrates both its concern about rising North Korean brinkmanship and newfound willingness to risk Beijing’s ire. Indeed, after three decades of stable ties anchored in economic interdependence, major changes are afoot in the South Korea-China relationship. Compared to Japan, which also counts China as its largest trading partner, South Korea has historically been less willing to stand its ground in the face of political pressure from Beijing. On the one hand, Seoul and Beijing have no major territorial disputes, but more importantly, South Korea had previously calculated that its political deference—especially on China’s “core interests” like Taiwan—would encourage Beijing to support denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) top foreign policy objective. For many years, South Korea handled Beijing with kid gloves, irrespective of who was in the Blue House. While the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is traditionally more China-friendly, it was the conservative President Park Geun-hye who attended China’s jingoistic September 2015 military parade. After a summit between Xi Jinping and Park, both leaders made a commitment to oppose any unilateral actions that could lead to tension on the Korean Peninsula. The following day, President Park joined Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in China’s military parade. South Korea was the only US ally to attend the event (The Korea Herald, September 3, 2015). Since then, however, the two countries have drifted apart. The catalyst for this change was Seoul’s decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in 2017, which China views as a security threat and South Korea deems essential for self-defense. China has repeatedly demanded that South Korea dismantle its THAAD system (Xinhua, September 21, 2017). When those demands failed to bear fruit, it resorted to sanctions against South Korea (The Korea Herald, March 8, 2017). Furthermore, both China’s imposition of a draconian national security law in Hong Kong and its mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic have hurt its reputation in South Korea (The South China Morning Post, October 20, 2020). It is against this backdrop that the ROK’s anti-China sentiment has surged to an all-time high—a development that will inevitably spill over into Seoul’s foreign policy. According to a 2021 survey conducted by SisaIN, for the first time since the ROK and the PRC normalized relations in 1992, South Koreans view China even more negatively than they do Japan (SisaIN, November 29, 2021). China’s ruling Communist Party seems oblivious to the existential threat that South Korea feels in the face of surging missile tests by North Korea. The JoongAng Daily noted in June that it takes just two minutes for a North Korean missile to hit Seoul. According to the editorial, “South Korea is technically still at war with North Korea. The government and people must not forget that” (Yonhap News Agency, June 1, 2023). Concluding that political appeasement and economic engagement with China have failed to pay off, South Korea is taking two significant steps: strengthening its ties with its top security partner, the US, and mending fences with its former rival, Japan. The implications of Seoul’s estrangement from Beijing could have far-reaching implications for geopolitics in the broader Indo Pacific region.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

99. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Socio-Cultural and Political Implications for Pakistan Amid Covid19 and the Way Forward

Author:
Mubeen Adnan and Reema Murad
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Through the ‘game changer’ project of China Pakistan Economic Corridor, China is aiming to stabilize its western part by promoting investment and economic development in its neighbour to the West, Pakistan, which will lead to a boost in the Pakistani economy through investments in infrastructure and construction of gas and oil pipeline. There is also the aim of reducing extremism in the Xinjiang region. However, there are several social, cultural and political changes that the project has the potential to bring about in Pakistan. This research work has made an attempt to understand the variousimplications of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor on Pakistan as well as how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted CPEC and the path ahead as the world slowly transitions out of COVID-19. This research paper has used secondary sources in order to answer these pertinent topics. Major opportunities which Pakistan and China have gained through this ChinaPakistan economic Corridor as well as some challenges are also discussed.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Investment, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

100. Deciphering Pakistan Navy’s Role in CPEC Security: A Comprehensive Security Approach

Author:
Shabana Fayyaz and Nabeel Hussain
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Contemporary geo-political and geo-economics potentialities creates new horizons for the bilateral relations between states. These potential arrangements require security as a pre-requisite, both traditional and nontraditional domain. Pakistan Navy is dealing with these security threats from a comprehensive security approach. Through Task Force-88 and Task Force-150 as well as the Force Protection Battalion (FPB) for the security of CPEC from foreign actors, it has made enormous efforts to protect the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from new challenges and threats. This demonstrates that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Pakistan Navy might accomplish compressive security through joint efforts. The protection and defence of sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) and the maritime-based economy are also enshrined in Pakistan's maritime doctrine. The Pakistan Navy's active engagement in Pakistan's security sector has also opened doors for the improvement of bilateral ties between various countries through the AMAN Exercises, a global collaboration of 45 nations to combat rising security threats.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Non-Traditional Threats, and CPEC
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and South Asia