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61. Navigating the treacherous political economy of structural reform

Author:
Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, and Chris Papageorgiou
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
We examine the economic and electoral effects of liberalisation measures using newly-constructed databases on structural economic reforms and the outcome of democratic elections since the 1970s. The data shows a remarkable slowdown in the pace of liberalisation in both advanced and emerging market and developing countries since the 1990s. A debate has emerged about the causes of this slowdown, including the possibility that reforms do not deliver the economic benefits that advocates, including the multilateral financial institutions, trumpeted. Some have pointed to the fact that the current and previous United States administrations have abandoned neoliberal policies in favour of more government intervention in the economy, and the effect has been globally contagious. Our empirical analysis suggests that the growth dividend from liberalisation is economically and statistically significant, but it emerges only slowly over time. Because of this delay, liberalising reforms are costly to democratic incumbents when they are implemented close to elections. Reforms may generate immediate concentrated losses, which elicit an electoral backlash, especially when the aggregate gains are only visible several years after the reform’s implementation. The electoral penalty is also sensitive to overall business-cycle conditions, being much larger when an economy is in recession. Electoral effects also differ depending on the type of reform. Notably, financial reforms generate more perceptible growth-equity trade-offs than real-economy reforms, especially when implemented during weak economic conditions. The political economy of reform is treacherous. To avoid adverse electoral effects, timing reform early in the electoral term and when business-cycle conditions are favourable is critical. So too is avoiding reforms that generate large distributional costs in the face of small aggregate gains (an adverse growth-equity trade-off). Focusing on these considerations is critical to reinvigorate support for structural reform.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Reform, Elections, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

62. Who Governs? 50 years since the February 1974 election

Author:
Robert Saunders
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
50 years ago this month, Prime Minister Edward Heath called a general election. With severe economic problems including the quadrupling of oil prices, a particularly fierce miners’ strike and the introduction of a three-day week, Heath addressed the nation, telling the electorate that they had to choose between ‘a strong Government which has clear authority for the future to take decisions which will be needed’ and one that ‘abandons the struggle against rising prices under pressure from one particularly powerful group of workers’. The result was a monumental moment in British political history – the first hung parliament since 1929 – and, arguably, as Alan Bancroft suggests, consigned the ‘post-war settlement’ to the ‘intensive care unit, ultimately leading to its demise in 1979’. To mark this significant anniversary, the Edward Heath Academic Forum – a new academic network to encourage study of the politics of the 1970s, and Heath’s contribution to British, European, and global politics – held its first public event at Queen Mary University of London. Dr Robert Saunders as well as Lord Butler (Private Secretary to the Prime Minister, 1972-74) and Lord McNally (Political Advisor to James Callaghan, 1974-76, and Head of Political Office at 10 Downing Street, 1976-79) revisit the campaign, the Conservatives’ struggle to sustain the focus on ‘Who Governs?’, Heath’s efforts to form a coalition with the Liberals, and the eventual formation of a minority Labour government.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, Domestic Politics, Prime Minister, and Edward Heath
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and North America

63. Nobody wins unless everybody wins: The Coles review into the sustainment of Australia’s Collins-class submarines

Author:
Andrew Davies
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
In 2003, Australia became the proud owner of the last of six new-build Collins-class submarines. Less than a decade later, the fleet was in a poor state of repair, and at times only one or two of the boats were available to the Royal Australian Navy. This account by Andrew Davies explains how the situation was remediated by bringing in a team of highly experienced naval professionals to take an uncompromising look at the arrangements in place to manage a vital national defence asset. Despite a public perception that the submarines were inherently defective, the problems were in fact almost entirely due to dysfunctional and often rancorous organisational dynamics between the key players. In the space of just a few years, and with remarkably little required in the way of additional funding, the situation took a dramatic turn for the better. As with earlier ASPI case studies on defence projects, Nobody wins unless everybody wins is designed to help those in Defence, industry and parliament and other interested observers to better understand the complexities of the business, all with the aim of improving how Australia equips and sustains its defence force.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Defense Industry, and Submarines
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

64. The cost of Defence: ASPI Defence budget brief 2024-2025

Author:
Bec Shrimpton
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia needs to spend more on defence—and it needs to do so immediately. The strategic imperative has been firmly established in the government’s own major defence documents. The Albanese government and the Coalition opposition agree that we are in the gravest geopolitical period in generations and this is only going to intensify. But as the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s latest Cost of Defence report finds, the rhetorical urgency is not being matched by action in the form of defence investment. The May budget is the latest demonstration of this mismatch, lacking spending for swift increases in capabilities that the Australian Defence Force would need if our region were to deteriorate quickly. In particular, this year’s budget priorities are not directed towards strengthening the Australian Defence Force’s ability to fight in the next decade. This is not doom-mongering; the government has acknowledged that the warning time before any conflict, which had long been set at 10 years, has shrunk to effectively zero time. We have war in Ukraine and the Middle East, aggression and increasingly dangerous and unprofessional behaviour from China causing instability and confrontation in the South China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait, erosions of the rule of law and revisionist agendas from authoritarians. Instability is heightened by foreign interference, economic coercion and artificial intelligence-enabled dangers such as cyber attacks and disinformation. If war were to break out at any time in the next 10 years, our military would essentially fight with the force it has today. Based on current resourcing, nothing significant will change over the decade. Most of the major new capabilities in the government’s defence investment blueprint are two decades away from being fully fielded. That blueprint does contain some shorter-term enhancements, but these will not be fielded until the 2030s. The welcome $5.7 billion in new defence spending over the four-year forward estimates period is devoted to just three priorities: the AUKUS submarines, the next fleet of surface warships and investment in long-range strike, targeting and autonomous systems. But two thirds of this funding doesn’t arrive until 2027-28. The relatively impressive longer term plan leaves us vulnerable in the immediate period ahead. More money immediately is not a silver bullet, and ambition must be balanced with how much Defence can actually spend each year. But the nation’s security requires a two-pronged strategy of enhancing our existing force to meet threats within the decade while investing in long term capabilities. Other countries are furiously pursuing new capabilities that can be put into action quickly—such as creating masses of small drones and prototyping and developing new technologies. We talk about technology and asymmetric advantage—playing to your strengths and finding effective means to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses–yet we lack a credible pathway to bring them into operation to bolster the force we have today. Over the longer term, the picture starts gradually to improve. The $50 billion in additional spending over the next decade is an important commitment, even if far away. The plan for a complete recapitalisation of the surface combatant fleet will eventually give us the biggest and most capable navy Australia has had since World War Two. But, so far, we are failing to grasp the opportunity to link our traditional large platforms such as submarines and warships to more modern developments in warfare—drones and various small uncrewed and smart capabilities. AI, robotics, electronic warfare and space capabilities remain aspirational, without any pathway for inclusion and integration into a truly focused force capable of meaningful deterrence and warfighting. That is why it is so important to realise AUKUS Pillar II, which is dealing with these capabilities. It’s easy to criticise; harder to do. All governments are grappling with tight budgets amid competing demands and the unremitting expectations of voters and taxpayers. As a nation, we need to accept the need for higher defence spending. Hoping that conflict won’t come is not a viable strategy. If we are prepared for war, we have a better chance of deterring and hence averting it. Europe is living that lesson now, having put all hope in the judgment that global trade and economic entanglement would bring security. Now it is clear that military investment is imperative to deter war or best prepare nations for it. The government has a vital responsibility to speak plainly to the nation about the geopolitical risks and the possibility of conflict. We need to grasp the challenge that is in front of us today, not in three or five years’ time. Otherwise, we risk delivering on Macarthur’s famous two word warning: “The history of failure in war can almost always be summed up in two words: “Too late.” Too late in comprehending the deadly enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.” Why take the risk of only acting after a crisis and saying better late than never? The world in turmoil demands we act in real time to both deter crises and be best prepared for them.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Budget, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

65. Economic and Technological Zones: Economic Strategy in the Tibet Autonomous Region

Author:
Devendra Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and livestock sectors), and Han people constitute the majority group in many of Tiber’s urban centers. The TAR government has set up the zones to import practices from elsewhere in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and shift the region’s economy away from traditional sectors and toward export-oriented industries, construction, and even high-tech manufacturing. The TAR’s external trade is currently limited to Nepal, due to ongoing border tensions with India. Meanwhile, infrastructural challenges hampering the development of the Sichuan-Tibet railway or national highways connecting the TAR with other provinces suggest that further integration with the rest of the PRC remains some way off. In a related policy, the PRC has developed border towns strategically located near land border ports that it has built along its borders with India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Infrastructure buildup on the border could also serve a dual-use purpose in the case of a conflict, as has been the case in India in recent years.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Trade, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Tibet

66. Marka Deneyimi Yaratma Sürecinde Hikâye Anlatıcılığının Rolü

Author:
Ezgi Limanlı and Burcu Öksüz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Bu çalışma, marka deneyimi ve hikâye anlatıcılığı kavramları arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Marka deneyimi ve hikâye anlatıcılığı kavramlarının, marka ile müşteri arasındaki ilişkide yarattığı duygusal ve davranışsal etkiler (memnuniyet, deneyim, güven ve sadakat gibi) incelenmiştir. Veri toplama yöntemi olarak nitel bir araştırma yöntemi olan odak grup görüşmeleri (üç oturum) kullanılmıştır. Odak grup görüşmelerinde 20 ile 30 yaş aralığında bulunan 8 kadın ve 8 erkek olmak üzere toplam 16 katılımcı yer almıştır. Bütçe ve zaman kısıtlarının olması nedeniyle tesadüfi olmayan örnekleme yöntemlerinden kolayda örnekleme yöntemine başvurulmuştur. Katılımcılara toplam 18 soru yöneltilmiştir. Katılımcılardan öncelikle marka olgusunu kapsayan soruları, daha sonra marka deneyimi sürecinde hikâye anlatıcılığına ilişkin soruları yanıtlamaları istenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular detaylıca analiz edilmiş ve yorumlanmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, hikâye anlatıcılığının marka deneyiminde bir bakıma katalizör görevi üstlendiği görülmektedir. Tüketicilerin duygularına hitap eden, iyi bir şekilde kurgulanmış ve doğru kanallarla ifade edilen gerçek bir hikâyenin tüketicilerde empatiyi arttırdığı ve onları ikna ettiği ortaya konulmuştur.
Topic:
Economics, Communications, Consumer Behavior, Storytelling, Branding, and Marketing
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

67. Japan’s Approach to the Global South

Author:
Tobias Harris
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in a January 2023 speech in Washington, DC, stressed that if the G7 countries and their developed-world peers neglect the “Global South”, “we will find ourselves in the minority and unable to resolve mounting policy issues.” These remarks set the stage for a major theme of Japan’s G7 presidency that year, during which Tokyo continued to highlight the importance of more “humility” to strengthen relations between the group’s members and the “Global South”. The G7 leaders’ communiqué at their May 2023 Hiroshima summit did not refer explicitly to the Global South—the United States and other nations did not necessarily share Japan’s preference for the term, which risks treating as monolithic an enormously diverse array of countries—but the document stressed the importance of addressing the needs of middle- and low-income states, including a commitment to “continued efforts to scale up official development assistance (ODA)” and to adopting “innovative financing mechanisms”. This emphasis on outreach to the developing countries assumed greater urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when they were often reluctant to support Western efforts to isolate and punish the Kremlin for its aggression. Japan’s approach to the “Global South” is not merely rhetorical. The Kishida government inherited a long-standing approach to developing nations, particularly those in Asia, that seeks to leverage Japanese ODA and public and private investment. The approach has two goals: to promote growth and strengthen economic ties with developing countries, and to foster trust and political credibility that can be translated into influence. The strategy is shaped by Japan’s national interests but seeks to address developing countries’ economic needs without drawing them into an anti-Beijing bloc. The approach has worked well in Southeast Asia, where, thanks to decades of efforts by successive governments, Japan is viewed particularly favorably. Tokyo now appears increasingly determined to pursue the same strategy in other parts of the “Global South”, including South Asia, the Pacific island states, and, to a lesser extent, Africa and Latin America. As Japan’s G7 peers seek to undertake their own initiatives to improve relations with the “Global South”, the key principles and successes of the country’s policies are worth examining.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Democracy, Business, Global South, and Trade
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

68. Rethinking Industrial Policy for Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Michal Hrubý
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is increasingly important in the EU’s manufacturing landscape. The region’s export-oriented economies became an integral part of it through foreign direct investment—supported primarily by EU funding, including Cohesion Policy programs for regional and industrial development, and by national state spending. With its competitiveness at stake, the EU now focuses on industrial policy for cutting-edge technologies with high capital intensity. Many of its new regulations loosen state aid rules to allow generous support by governments to attract investors, which poses a problem for member states with less fiscal room to do so, including the CEE countries. This report discusses the opportunities and challenges for CEE countries to build manufacturing with potential to grow and to increase domestic value-added. It examines two case studies in the region: batteries and semiconductors, and their position in the value chains in Czechia and Hungary. Hungary has become one of the EU’s leading battery industry hubs and plays a key role in the drive toward self- sufficiency in this field. Its success came principally through government spending on investment promotion. Key issues have arisen regarding the environmental sustainability of new investments, the decision to attract cheap foreign labor without any appropriate long-term labor policy, and the lack of knowledge spillover from multinational companies to small and medium domestic ones to improve their value-chain position. New large investments announced by Chinese companies also raise geopolitical and security issues. With its broad innovation and R&D strategy and record low unemployment, Czechia did not make attracting large investments a priority before the COVID-19 pandemic. This has changed and its semiconductor industry is well- placed to draw in new investments in the micro- and nanoelectronics value chain. Czechia has started to support the industry through state aid for a handful of domestic and foreign companies, due to its strategic importance, its high value-added in production output, and the opportunity for stimulating R&D and high-skill employment. These case studies reveal key takeaways for Central and Eastern Europe. First, industrial policy based on state aid in small open economies are costly and will not generate long-term benefits if it is oriented solely at production tasks as in the past. Investment must bring innovation and R&D. Second, CEE countries should make financing innovation and R&D the priority, not subsidizing new manufacturing projects. They should rationalize their policy objectives and update and stick to their national strategies. Third, tight budgets and financial consolidation put pressure on selecting projects for state aid. Governments should not provide this aid without a solid cost-benefit analysis of the investments. Fourth, the CEE countries should consolidate the too broad innovation priorities within their national strategies and analyze their long-term growth potential. Fifth, industrial policy must be accompanied by appropriate labor and education policies to support the green and digital transition.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

69. The Decline and Rise of Hegemonic Narratives: From Globalisation and the 'Asia-Pacific' to Geopolitics and the 'Indo-Pacific'

Author:
Richard Higgott
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Ideas and words have consequences. The 'Asia Pacific' as an economic understanding of region is giving way, some would say has given way, to the 'Indo-Pacific' as a geopolitical understanding of region. This paper explores the ideational and discursive consequences of this juxtaposition. It focuses on the shift from the theoretical and practical implications of the waning ideational hegemony of neo-liberal economics to the growing hegemony of geopolitical security concerns. It argues that just as a neo-liberal economic approach to the Asia Pacific over-hyped the success and benefits of globalisation as an absolute wealth aggregator and underplayed its negative externalities of mal-distribution and growing inequality, the privileging of the Indo-Pacific over-hypes the concept of security and underplays the effects of 'threat inflation' and the self-fulfilling possibilities of the privileging of forward leaning geo-political analysis. By way of a short case study, the paper shows how Australia’s strategic culture is now driven more by the US security coda of the Indo-Pacific rather than the economic coda of the 'Asia-Pacific'.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Globalization, Hegemony, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific

70. Türkiye’de Yapılan Nedensellik Araştırmaları Üzerine: Sahte Nedensellik Bulguları

Author:
Ahmet Aydın Arı, Kerim Eser Afşar, and Murat Şenol
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Amaç- Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de ve dünya-da yapılan nedensellik çalışmalarının karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilmesiyle, ulusal ve uluslararası lite-ratür arasındaki farklılıkların tespit edilmesidir. Yöntem/Metodoloji/Dizayn- Yöntem olarak karşı-laştırmalı analiz ve bibliyometri kullanılmıştır. Bu yöntemler, iki farklı literatürdeki nedensellik çalış-malarını değerlendirmek için seçilmiştir. Sonuçlar- Ulusal ve uluslararası literatürde özelikle sahte nedenselliğin ihmal edilmesi nedeniyle büyük bir uçurum ortaya çıkmaktadır. Türkiye’de uluslara-rası literatürle bağları zayıf olan yerel bir nedensel-lik literatürünün oluştuğu tespit edilmiştir. Ulusal li-teratürde nedensellik kavramını kullanan yazarların genellikle sahte korelasyon gibi bir durumu neden-sellik olarak algılayarak değerlendirmesi ve analiz-lerini nedensellik olarak belirtmesi yapılan çalışma-ların katkı değerini azaltan bir durum ortaya çıkar-maktadır. Ulusal literatürde ortaya çıkan kapalı bi-limsel ağ yapısı, gelecekte gerçekleşecek diğer ça-lışmalar için patika bağımlılığı riski yaratmaktadır. Katkı/Farklılıklar- Politika tasarımlarında neden-sellik sonuçları, önemli bir teorik dayanak noktası-dır. Bu konunun ampirik iktisat literatüründe ihmal edilmesi hatalı politika çıkarımlarına neden olabilir.
Topic:
Economics, Causality, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

71. Exploring the Impact of Behavioural Factors and Personality Traits on Private Pension System Participation: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:
Can Verberi and Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study aims to investigate the effects of personality traits, in addition to basic financial literacy, private pension literacy and behavioural factors on Private Pension System (PPS) participation using machine learning algorithms. The PPS participation model was trained using both random forest and LightGBM algorithms, and the contributions of model inputs in the prediction of pension participation were interpreted using the Tree SHAP algorithms with swarmplots. The data employed in the empirical analysis is survey data collected from the Şırnak province of Türkiye with a sample size of 449. The findings of the study shows that: (i) PPS participation is more likely for females and middle-aged people; (ii) High basic financial literacy has a negative impact on PPS participation; (iii) Extraversion is the key personality trait affecting PPS participation; (iv) Advanced pension literacy has more impact on participation than simple pension literacy: (v) Present-fatalistic tendency is key behavioural factor and it negatively affects PPS; (vi) Present-hedonistic, conscientiousness, future-time orientation, and locus of control tendencies increase PPS participation. Furthermore, the distribution of colours in LightGBM has a greater degree of uniformity in both directions compared with the random forest algorithm. Finally, to increase PPS participation, the results of the study suggest the implementation of the following policy measures: Tailored pension literacy programmes can help to increase pension participation rates. Incentives should be created to prevent narrow-minded behaviour and establish a sense of protection and control around PPS, targeting middle-aged individuals and women.
Topic:
Economics, Behavior, Pension, Machine Learning, and Personality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

72. Relationship between Organic Agriculture And GDP Per Capita, Economic Growth, and Unemployment: Panel Data Analysis

Author:
Kurtuluş Merdan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The increase in the world population recently has also increased the need for agricultural products. The need for food products has made it necessary to obtain more products per unit area. At this point, producers have focussed on the use of hormones, chemicals, and fertilisers to increase productivity and meet the demand for cheap food, and the process that increases production in the short term has become a threat to human health in the long term. Over time, the negative effects of chemicals on humans and the environment were observed, forcing producers to seek new methods. This process has led to independent studies on organic agriculture in every country. In this study, the effects of organic agriculture on some economic variables were revealed. In this context, the analyses focus now the variables of area allocated to organic agriculture on a regional basis, production amount and number of producers affected GDP per capita, economic growth, and unemployment in Turkey between 2003 and 2021. The scientific dimension of the study was prepared using data obtained from domestic and foreign literature and the electronic database of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. In this study, in which panel data analysis was used, EViews 12 programme was employed. For the variables used in the study, the geographical region cross-section dependence was determined, and the stationarity of the series was examined with the CIPS (Cross-Sectionally Augmented IPS) unit root test. As a result of the study, it was determined that organic production amount, number of organic farmers, and organic production area did not have a significant effect on economic growth and unemployment. Organic production area and the number of organic farmers had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita, but the amount of organic production did not have a significant relationship.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, GDP, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

73. A Better Proxy for Technology Determinant of Economic Growth: The International Digital Economy and Society Index

Author:
Elif Asoy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The importance of information communication technology in fueling economic growth is widely acknowledged. In the current digital era, the International Digital Economy and Society Index (I-DESI) offers a more precise depiction alternative to the ICT indicators by serving as a better proxy for changes in the factors of production. It monitors the advancement of ICT in the EU27 and 14 non-EU nations, highlighting their strides towards a technologydriven economy. The objective of the study was to evaluate the influence of the I-DESI on economic growth through the utilization of the panel data method. Hence, gross domestic product (GDP) measured at constant prices was utilized as the dependent variable in the analysis, while the Index of Digital Economy and Society Integration (I-DESI), calculated by the European Commission, served as the independent variable. However, it’s important to note that the described index is current and limited at present. In line with this constraint, only four years of data, spanning from 2015 to 2018, were available. To ensure the accuracy of the model, diagnostic tests were conducted, and the Driscoll-Kraay standard error model was employed to assess the outcomes. Two models were constructed to achieve this goal, with the initial one revealing the relationship between the I-DESI and economic growth. The second model aimed to pinpoint the dimensions of the I-DESI that had the greatest impact on growth. According to findings obtained from the analysis, I-DESI and certain subdimensions which are digital skills, use of internet, integration of digital technology, and digital public services affect economic growth positively and significantly. A one percent increase in I-DESI results in a one percent increase in GDP. Similarly, each subdimension mentioned, where meaningful relationships have been identified, possesses explanatory power for GDP. Furthermore, evaluating the coefficient of these independent variables, changing the weight of dimensions can be considered.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

74. Public Policies on the Socioeconomic Effects of Migration

Author:
Ezgim Yavuz and Nazan Susam
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
To develop a public policy, it is important to understand the experiences of forced migrants. This study reveals the effects of forced migration on public finances in countries hosting displaced people. In this context, public policy support for access to basic humanitarian needs such as education and health, which are semi-public goods, will be evaluated through a quantitative analysis. Interviews with refugees within the scope of this research draw a picture of the current situation. Thus, evaluating the effectiveness and shortcomings of existing policies and determining the policy support needed are among the unique values of this research. Since migration is a dynamic process, it is also aimed to provide a basis for future studies in this field and to reveal the current situation.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Health, Migration, Refugees, Public Policy, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

75. Panel Causality Analysis of the Relationship among the Rule of Law, Technological Advances, Competitiveness, and Value-Added

Author:
Doğan Keşap and Ali Rıza Sandalcılar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The status of countries within the global value chain varies depending on the importance of national production capabilities in the global economy. From this perspective, there is a need for a value-added production approach that focuses on innovation and competitiveness. Technological advances and institutions are considered to play a significant role in transforming the economy towards an innovation-driven one to meet these needs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship among technological advances, the rule of law as a proxy for institutions, value-added production, and competitiveness in a way that reflects crosscountry divergence. Through an analysis employed independently of countries’ existing levels of development, it will be possible to evaluate whether the factors associated with institutions and innovation can produce similar results in all circumstances and for each country. In this context, a panel causality analysis that considers cross-sectional heterogeneity is employed. The analysis shows bidirectional causality between the variables, except for value-added to the rule of law. However, the results also support the existence of cross-country divergence. These findings suggest that future policy plans should be designed to consider the multidimensional nature of country-specific factors, alongside technological advances and the rule of law, and to ensure the integration of both national and international economic objectives.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Rule of Law, Competition, and Value-added Production
Political Geography:
Global Focus

76. Contribution of Finance and Transport Indicators on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Eurasian Countries

Author:
Kenan Ilarslan and Tuğrul Bayat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Carbon emission is one of the most significant causes of environmental degradation, global warming, and extraordinary meteorological events. It has reached a level that threatens the future of countries and human beings. To combat carbon emission, it is necessary to know the causes for developing policies. Environmental quality is a fundamental aspect of sustainable development in economies worldwide. In this context, Eurasian geography has always been an important region in the history of the world with its location, underground, and surface resources. Today, the region makes its strategic importance even more evident. The communist USSR ruled Eurasian countries, which served as a buffer between the Western world and China for many years. These countries, which gained their independence in the 1990s, have not yet fully captured the values of the modern world, such as democracy and a free market economy. This study focuses on Eurasian countries. This study aimed to determine the factors affecting carbon emissions. Foreign direct investment and transportation contribute significantly to carbon emission, which reduces environmental quality. Therefore, in this study, we investigated whether rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment affect carbon emission in Eurasian countries. The concurrent panel quantile regression method was used to estimate this relationship between 1992 and 2020. The results revealed that rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment increase emissions. Additionally, no clear result could be obtained regarding the effect of the GDP per capita variable. To support these findings, analyses were performed using the robust quantile regression method, and strong empirical evidence was obtained, particularly for the impacts of foreign direct investment and rail passenger transport on emissions.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, and Quantile Regression
Political Geography:
Eurasia

77. Analysis of Istanbul Stock Market Returns Volatility with ARCH and GARCH Models

Author:
İpek M. Yurttagüler
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
In today’s world where globalization is intensely experienced, differences in risk perception, developments in capital markets, and the negativities faced in the markets due to uncertainty are very important when researching the structures of the stock markets, and therefore determining current volatilities. One of the biggest problems encountered is the inability to price stocks effectively. Therefore, estimating and modeling volatility becomes crucial. The diversity of the portfolio, created by international investors in the financial markets and the sustainability of their investment decisions, are closely related to the volatility variable. However, the fact that financial markets are more fragile in developing countries increases the importance of volatility. There are many different methods in the literature when estimating volatility. Due to the inadequacy of traditional time series models in estimating volatility, conditional heteroskedasticity models are used with ARCH and GARCH class models being frequently used. In this study, the series of daily opening values of the ISE100 Index covering from 02.01.2003 to 30.09.2022 was estimated using ARCH/GARCH models for volatility with the aim to determine which model has the higher explanatory power. According to the findings, the GARCH(1,1) model gave more meaningful results in explaining the ISE100 return volatility.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Stock Markets, and Volatility
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

78. Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Ecological Footprint of European Countries

Author:
Beyda Demirci and Ferda Yerdelen Tatoğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study explains the effects of various economic factors on the ecological footprint of 34 European countries in 2022 using spatial econometric techniques. Unlike previous studies on the ecological footprint, this study presents more comprehensive results by including spatial effects in the model using spatial econometric techniques for 34 countries for 2022. This study analyzes the lagged effects of per capita GDP growth, trade openness, and renewable energy use on the ecological footprint. The spatial Durbin Model was confirmed as the most appropriate through diagnostic tests and selection criteria. The results show that per capita GDP growth, trade openness, and renewable energy usage positively and significantly affect the ecological footprint. Additionally, the spatially lagged per capita GDP growth rate has a negative impact on the ecological footprint, while the spatially lagged trade openness has a positive impact, both of which are statistically significant. These findings underscore the importance of considering the environmental impacts of economic policies to achieve sustainable development. Furthermore, the identification of spatial effects in the spread of ecological footprints highlights the need to address environmental issues not only at the national level but also in relation to neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Economics, Econometrics, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Europe

79. Ceremonial Economics: A General Review

Author:
Aras Yolusever
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Ceremonial economics explores how traditional values, myths, and rituals intersect with economic practices and institutions. It differentiates between “ceremonial” practices based on tradition and cultural values and “instrumental” practices based on efficiency and problem-solving capabilities. This field, rooted in institutional economics, emphasizes the tension between preserving established social orders and fostering innovation. Scholars can gain insights into the broader implications of economic systems by understanding how ceremonial practices influence economic behavior and social cohesion. This pluralistic approach comprehensively analyzes how ceremonial and instrumental practices interact within various economic systems. The main goal of this study is to develop a detailed and all-encompassing framework for ceremonial economics. A key aspect of this will involve comparing ceremonial economics principles with institutional economics. Additionally, the study will delve into various aspects of ceremonial economics, specifically focusing on cultural and social aspects. Furthermore, the study conducts four examples to provide practical insights into the application of ceremonial economics.
Topic:
Economics, Tradition, and Rituals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. Foreign Direct Investment, Brand Value, and Economic Performance: A Multinational Analysis

Author:
Tuba Yıldız, Ünal Arslan, Zeynep Ökten, Yıldız Sağlam Çelıköz, and Hale Kırmızıoğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The visibility and dependability of multinational corporations’ products increase with the fact that they introduce their goods to markets in other nations through foreign direct investments. The method for presenting products to international markets through foreign direct investments reveals the product’s reputation and therefore the brand’s development value. This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investments and brand value in Australia, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Spain, the USA, and the UK for the period 2007-2023. The majority of studies in the literature attempt to explain the impact of brand value on foreign direct investments. However, very few studies explain the impac foreign direct investments on brand value and 1st generation unit root tests were generally used. Unlike existing studies, In this study, the second-generation unit root test, Durbin-Hausman cointegration, and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimation methods were used. As a result, it is anticipated that this study will contribute to the literature in this regard. The findings show that increases in foreign direct investments boost brand value.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Data, and Branding
Political Geography:
Japan, China, United Kingdom, Canada, India, France, Spain, Australia, Global Focus, and United States of America