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6802. America's Maligned and Misunderstood Trade Deficit
- Author:
- Daniel T. Griswold
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- America's annual trade deficit, already large by historical standards, could reach a new record in 1998, fueling protectionist sentiment in Congress. Political fallout from the trade deficit numbers could impede efforts to reduce barriers to trade in the United States and abroad. Contrary to popular conception, the trade deficit is not caused by unfair trade practices abroad or declining industrial competitiveness at home. Trade deficits reflect the flow of capital across international borders, flows that are determined by national rates of savings and investment. This renders trade policy an ineffective tool for reducing a nation's trade deficit.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
6803. Information Technology and Economic Development: An Introduction to the Research Issues
- Author:
- Matti Pohjola
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- There is substantial evidence that new information technologies are in many ways transforming the operations of modern economies. More than half of employees use a computer at work in the most advanced industrial countries. About 10 per cent of the value of all private investment in fixed non-residential capital is devoted to computers and peripheral equipment in the United States and some other economies. This share goes up to 25 per cent when investment in information processing equipment is included. Nevertheless, all spending on information technology, including hardware, software and services, does not amount to more than 3-4 per cent of nominal GDP in these countries. The share is, however, increasing rapidly, indicating that a steady state has not yet been reached.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
6804. Computers and Labour Markets: International Evidence
- Author:
- Francis Kramarz
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
6805. Underdevelopment, Transition and Reconstruction in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Tony Addison
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Reconstructing Africa's war damaged economies is an urgent task. This is especially so in a group of countries - Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique - which must also complete their economic and political transition from state socialism. Somalia, which shares their common history, must eventually be rebuilt. All of these countries must address their deep problems of underdevelopment and poverty. The challenges are therefore three-fold: to overcome underdevelopment, to make the transition from state socialism, and to reconstruct economies and societies.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, Eritrea, and Guinea-Bissau
6806. Resource Abundance and Economic Development: Improving the Performance of Resource-Rich Countries
- Author:
- Richard M. Auty
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Since the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable resource-rich development. It argues that structural change in the resource-rich countries causes the tradeable sector to shrink vis-à-vis the nontradeables sector (that includes protected manufacturing) in a manner that is not sustainable. This adverse trend in the production structure is associated with policies to close the economy and create discretionary rents behind protective barriers that result in the cumulative misallocation of resources. The build-up of produced capital and skills is slower than in the successful resource-deficient countries. Overall, the inherently slower and less egalitarian economic growth trajectory of the resource-rich countries is intensified and the end result is usually a growth collapse. The collapse causes all forms of capital, including institutional, social and natural capital, to run down. Economic reform is therefore protracted and it may take in excess of one generation to restore sustainable rapid growth. The adverse features of resource-rich development tend to be more pronounced in the smaller countries. They are also heightened where the resource rents accrue mainly to the central government, as in the mineral economies and in the slow-reforming transition economies. Successful reform requires not only appropriate macro and micro policies, but also the construction of institutions to limit the scope for governments to misallocate resources. Part of the explanation for the superior performance of the resource-deficient countries is that their spartan endowment of natural capital acts as a constraint on government failure by placing a premium on the need to nurture scarce resources, including skills, institutions and social capital, and to achieve an efficient allocation of capital.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Government, and International Political Economy
6807. The Role of Knowledge and Capital in Economic Growth
- Author:
- Sergio Rebelo
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Starting from the celebrated neoclassical (Solow) model of economic growth, this paper discusses new ideas in growth theory focussing on how to make sustained growth feasible. It first reviews models that broadened the notion of capital to include human capital and the state of technology. These extensions of the neoclassical theory are not very satisfying at a descriptive level because productivity growth is associated with either human or physical capital accumulation in a way that does not interact with the invention of new technologies.
- Topic:
- Economics and Science and Technology
6808. Assessing South Africa's Growth Strategy
- Author:
- Jesmond Blumenfeld
- Publication Date:
- 07-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- As South Africa approaches its second inclusive elections in 1999, the government's economic record will come under increasing scrutiny. Against widespread expectations of a post-apartheid transformation in economic performance, the country's achievements in output, investment and employment have been profoundly disappointing. The adoption of a new, and more market- and investor-friendly, macroeconomic strategy in 1996 boosted confidence by promising major structural and policy reforms, but this has since been undermined by failure to meet most of the strategy's targets. In this Briefing Paper, Jesmond Blumenfeld analyses the origins, content and outcomes of the strategy as well as the economic and political dilemmas that it has created.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- South Africa and New Delhi
6809. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1998
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
6810. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1998
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
6811. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1998
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators show the 4th quarter of 1998 starting with a relatively slow pace of growth (compared to the coincident index's rise of rise 3.0 percent and GDP's rise of 3.7 percent, annualized, during the first 3 quarters of 1998. The leading indicators show no serious impediments to moderate, or even strong, economic growth in 1999. There is almost no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
6812. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1998
- Publication Date:
- 09-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Both the leading and coincident indexes held steady, while the lagging index fell 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a slowing, but still healthy economy. The coincident indicators suggest the expansion advanced in the 2 to 2.5 percent range in the 3rd quarter of 1998, compared with constant- dollar GDP showing a 3.3 percent increase (annualized). It is premature to predict a recession based on the leading indicators. The lagging indicators have moderated, giving less reason to worry that cyclical imbalances will soon jeopardize the economy's stability.lances could jeopardize the economy's stability.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
6813. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1998
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a 2.5 to 3.0 percent pace (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The lagging indicators suggest a need to be concerned that cyclical imbalances could jeopardize the economy's stability in 1999.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
6814. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1998
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a moderating economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at faster pace than the latest GDP figures, but slower than the 4th quarter of 1997 and the 1st quarter of 1998. (The coincident index rose 3.1 percent while GDP rose 1.4 percent, annualized, in the 2nd quarter of 1998). A two-month decline in the leading indicators signals slower growth ahead and only a slight risk of a contraction. The lagging indicators show slight evidence of cyclical imbalances that could jeopardize the economyÕs stability.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
6815. The Yen, the Yuan, and the Asian Currency Crisis Changing Fortune between Japan and China
- Author:
- C.H. Kwan
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand
6816. The Korean Currency Crisis: What Can We Learn From It?
- Author:
- Sang-Mok Suh
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Just like many other crises, the Korean currency crisis came suddenly. In mid–November 1997, headlines in the Korean press consisted mostly of presidential election stories. At that time the presidential race was very close; the Grand National Party candidate, Lee Hoi–Chang, was making a dramatic comeback, while the National Congress for New Politics candidate, Kim Dae–jung, was making his best effort to maintain his narrow lead. Thus, when President Kim Young Sam announced on November 19 his decision to fire key economic policy–makers on the grounds of mismanaging the economy, most Koreans were surprised at the news and questioned the president's motivation. Two days later they were completely shocked to learn that the Korean government was asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency standby loans because the Korean foreign reserve level was very low at $7.3 billion and most foreign financial institutions were unwilling to roll over their short–term loans to Korea.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and Asia
6817. Benefits and Burdens: The Politically Dominated Economics of U.S. Alliances with Japan and Korea
- Author:
- Charles Wolf and Michele Zanini
- Publication Date:
- 04-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Alliances are organizations between or among independent entities that concert to produce “collective goods” for the mutual benefit of alliance members. The statement applies whether the alliances are between or among countries, corporations, universities, research centers, or other institutions. Of course, the nature of the collective goods, as well as the membership in the collectivity, differs across these cases. That the goods (or benefits) are “collective” means that their availability to one alliance member (or their production by any member) implies their availability to the other members of the alliance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Korea
6818. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification
- Author:
- Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
- Publication Date:
- 03-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and Korea
6819. Energy and Security in East Asia
- Author:
- Michael May
- Publication Date:
- 01-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
6820. Intermediate Sovereignty As A Basis For Resolving The Kosovo Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo