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101. The “Odious” Legacy of Chinese Development Assistance in Africa: The Case of Angola

Author:
Rafael Marques de Morais and Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Within days of taking office, China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, was on a plane to his country’s main African client: Angola. Landing in Luanda on January 12, Qin Gang was ostensibly bringing a gift—a $250 million loan to help Angola expand high-speed broadband. Some gifts, however, are not what they seem, and some of the recent financial gifts from Chinese sources have been toxic. Soon after Qin visited Angola, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to three African countries but skipped Angola, possibly because of its checkered history with Chinese development assistance. The case of Angola raises questions about the extent and nature of Chinese loans and infrastructure aid to a growing number of African nations, as well as the consequences of such loans on those countries’ relations with the US.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Infrastructure, Trade, Development Assistance, and Loans
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Angola, and United States of America

102. Radical Steps Are Essential to Jump-Starting the Replacement of the Flawed US Money Regime

Author:
Brendan Brown
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A previous policy memo argued that flaws in the actual US money regime are responsible for the Great Pandemic Inflation.1 Now that reported inflation has been falling, some of us might imagine that addressing these flaws has become a non-urgent matter. After all, great supply shocks tend to come rarely. But such complacence does not fit the facts. The case for getting rid of the present rotten monetary regime is not simply based on the argument that it has malfunctioned so severely during the pandemic and war supply shock. That malfunctioning continues into the present, where there is now positive supply side news (the pandemic dislocation is fading, and a natural gas glut has emerged despite the continuing Russia-Ukraine War). The Federal Reserve and other central banks, still trying to navigate policy in an anchorless monetary system by choosing a path for short-term interest rates, are stumbling from one huge blunder to another, even if they have a rare lucky stretch in between. Beyond the woes of how the 2 percent inflation standard performed during the supply shock and subsequent supply restoration, this regime should be held responsible for a range of economic and social consequences that predate the pandemic and war. These include malinvestment (poor allocation of capital due to corrupted signaling in markets), advancement of monopoly capitalism, bloated government outlays, and punitive monetary taxation (in the form of inflation tax or monetary repression tax), all of which take their toll. Instead of enjoying a top-quality money with all its benefits, individuals have had to put up with a poor money and all its related costs, particularly the ongoing danger of serious loss of purchasing power.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

103. Campaigning to Dissuade: Applying Emerging Technologies to Engage and Succeed in the Information Age Security Competition

Author:
Bryan Clark and Dan Patt
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) presents the United States with its most comprehensive economic and security rival since Great Britain during the nineteenth century. Starting in 2018, US defense strategies have highlighted the threat that the PRC poses to US allies, and successive presidential administrations and Congresses responded by increasing defense budgets to expand US military capability and capacity. Despite these efforts, numerous assessments now show that modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has eroded—and in some missions overcome—US military superiority. Absent large and politically fraught increases in defense spending, continued expansion and improvement of today’s US force are unlikely to regain broad overmatch against the PLA in the Western Pacific. Instead, the United States will need new strategies and operational concepts to deter PRC aggression. Recognizing this imperative, the 2022 US National Defense Strategy (NDS) attempted to move in a different direction from its predecessors through two new lines of effort called “campaigning” and “integrated deterrence.” However, in unclassified documents and speeches by defense officials, both the essence of integrated deterrence and the mechanism of campaigning remain unclear. 1 Emerging technologies offer the US military a way to put these new concepts into action, sustaining its ability to prevent conflict and gaining an upper hand in the strategic competition with China despite the PLA’s “home team” advantages. The United States remains the world leader in operational and technological innovation, as evidenced by decades of advancements in networking and computing—marked recently by the rapid commercialization of artificial intelligence (AI). Building on the 2022 NDS, this report proposes a strategy for campaigning that would exploit information technologies to dissuade China from pursuing acts of aggression against allies such as Taiwan. The primary objective of the proposed campaigning model is to shape PRC government decision-making, especially that of the PRC military, in ways that are conducive to long-term regional stability and prosperity. A whole-of-government effort like that implied by the 2022 NDS would be the most effective form of campaigning because it could exploit the PRC government’s numerous vulnerabilities, from its appalling record on human rights to its loss of economic momentum and its growing demographic challenges. However, this report focuses on actions the US military can take by itself or with allied militaries to dissuade future PRC aggression. In the proposed approach, campaigning is an ongoing sequence of probing, signaling, adapting, and acting by the US military and intelligence community, coupled with and informed by instrumentation of the information environment. In addition to demonstrating US resolve, campaigning should enable the US to estimate competitor habits, preferences, and fears. These estimates would guide future campaigning activities and inform US force planners regarding a competitor’s uncertainty and areas of concern. Armed with increasing insight about adversary beliefs, campaigning actions would aim to shape an opponent’s preferences and priorities away from violent paths to their goals and toward scenarios that are more aligned with US interests. In offering an approach to dissuasion, this report diverges from the strategy of deterring war primarily through threats of denial or punishment. This construct has dominated US defense strategy since the Soviet Union collapsed because conventional dominance enabled the US military to credibly stop or reverse an act of aggression and nuclear weapons provided the capability to impose existential punishment. Today, the PRC’s status as a peer competitor makes denial and punishment less credible. The US government will instead need to prevent conflict before it becomes imminent.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
China, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

104. The Soviet Union as a Development Actor in West Africa: An Interview with Alessandro Iandolo on Arrested Development

Author:
Alessandro Iandolo and Mirek Tobiáš Hošman
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
The recently published work Arrested Development: The Soviet Union in Ghana, Guinea, and Mali, 1955–1968 (Cornell University Press, 2022) explores the Soviet Union’s economic partnership with three newly-independent countries in West Africa during the Nikita Khrushchev era. The Toynbee Prize Foundation interviewed the author, Alessandro Iandolo, on the story and the main arguments of his book. Alongside discussing the emergence of the Soviet Union as an international development actor and the challenges it encountered in post-colonial Africa, Iandolo explained the characteristics of the Soviet development model, its similarities and differences to the Western alternatives, and why the Soviet development assistance in Ghana, Guinea, and Mali was not primarily oriented around spreading the communist ideology. Alessandro Iandolo is a historian of the Soviet Union and the world. His research interests cover the USSR’s economic, intellectual, and political interactions with external ideas, states, and people. His current project investigates intellectual exchanges between Soviet and Latin American economists on theorizing “backwardness” and “dependency.” He is a Lecturer in Soviet and Post-Soviet history at University College London.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Partnerships, and Interview
Political Geography:
Africa, Soviet Union, West Africa, Ghana, Mali, and Guinea

105. Towards an Intersectional Feminist Development Policy for Germany

Author:
Aïssa Boodhoo and Damjan Denkovski
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:
In the development of Germany’s Feminist Development Policy Strategy, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) conducted a consultative process which included online consultations, a high-level conference, and civil society dialogues. While the broadest consultative process by the German government to date, the BMZ process had limitations in terms of Global South participation and language accessibility. To complement the official BMZ-led process, the Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy (CFFP) initiated a comprehensive co-creation process involving diverse feminist civil society organisations from the Global South, Germany, and other Global North countries. Guided by position papers from various perspectives, desk research, and interviews, the CFFP feminist convenings process involved over 100 feminists from diverse backgrounds, spanned over 25 countries, provided compensation to small and Global South organisations, and incorporated intersectional perspectives. The process consisted of in-person and online convenings held in multiple languages, ensuring broad accessibility. This report is a summary of the rich discussions and recommendations of feminists. It aims to influence policymakers and initiate action in shaping Germany's Feminist Development Policy. This report opens by discussing five action areas in chapter 1, which serve as comprehensive guidelines for immediate transformative action across policy areas. The second chapter discusses feminist reflections in six thematic areas: economic justice, climate justice, food sovereignty and agriculture, sexual and reproductive health and rights, protecting minority rights, and education.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Education, Minorities, Partnerships, Feminism, Reproductive Rights, Digitalization, Funding, and Food Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus

106. Governance Practices in Turkey: A Comparative Perspective

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s latest National Development Plan seeks to attain economic and social development equal to that of the world’s most prosperous states. By structuring expectations and incentives for economic and political actors, institutions play a key role in achieving sustainable, long-term development. This paper provides a systematic longitudinal analysis of core governance indicators which shed light on Turkey’s evolution over time from a comparative perspective. The results point to a sharp decline in the institutional efficacy of the Turkish apparatus of state vis a vis core aspects of the country’s development agenda, especially with regard to the rule of law, public administration, regulatory capacity, and predictability. Turkey’s declining scores in recent years fly in the face of its political agenda and severely undermine welfare gains made in the early 21st century.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

107. Continuismo, contra reacción y triangulación: el desembarco de China en América Latina y la coexistencia de líneas de acción exterior de España hacia la región

Author:
Javier Martín Merchán
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Las relaciones entre España y América Latina siempre han conformado un pilar en la estrategia de integración internacional del país ibérico. No obstante, ante la singular coyuntura que supone el auge exponencial de China en la región latinoamericana, ¿qué riesgos afronta hoy España en América Latina? ¿Ha influido dicha coyuntura en las líneas maestras de acción exterior de España hacia la región? Este artículo arroja algo de luz en torno a tales preguntas, y su conclusión es doble. Por un lado, sugiere que el desembarco chino supone un serio desafío para España. Por otro, se sostiene que la política exterior española ha hecho coexistir tres tipos de actitudes como respuesta: una más continuista, otra que capitaliza esta nueva coyuntura y busca aprovechar sus oportunidades, y una última más reactiva a las amenazas que suscitaría la pujanza china en América Latina.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and Spain

108. Perú entre Estados Unidos y China: Adaptación de la política exterior peruana de cara a las divergencias chino-estadounidenses

Author:
Bruno Macciotta Pulisci and Pablo Biderbost
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Desde hace un tiempo China viene compitiendo con Estados Unidos por una posición dominante en el mundo. La competencia es, sobre todo económica, aunque implica, por supuesto, aspectos también políticos, sociales y militares. Una de las regiones más disputadas es, sin duda, América Latina, en la que Estados Unidos pierde cada vez más terreno y China se posiciona como el mayor socio comercial. En este contexto, los países latinoamericanos han tenido que reconfigurar sus políticas exteriores para poder satisfacer sus expectativas de la mano de quien le ofrezca mejores posibilidades. Perú no ha sido una excepción y, de hecho, se ha acercado en los últimos años más a China como principal socio comercial, aunque no ha soltado la mano de Estados Unidos del todo. El presente artículo explora cómo se ha reconfigurado la política exterior peruana de cara a la competencia entre China y Estados Unidos.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, South America, Peru, and United States of America

109. Exploring the Interplay between Trade and Industrial Policies and the Impact of Geopolitics on the Transformation of Taiwan’s Economy

Author:
Ying-Jun Lin
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Over the past five decades, Taiwan's economy has shifted from inward-oriented to outward-oriented, from an import-substitution policy to an export-expansion policy. This evolution in economic structure has also brought about changes in the industrial landscape. While there is an ongoing debate about the respective roles of the market and the government in promoting Taiwan's economic growth, this article argues that the history of Taiwan's economy demonstrates a mutually beneficial relationship between trade and industrial policies. The integration of market forces and government intervention has played a crucial role in Taiwan's economic success story. However, the dynamics between the United States and China, as well as the emergence of new Asian regionalism, pose challenges to Taiwanese industries and enterprises. In conclusion, this article emphasises the importance of refining trade and industrial policies in line with the geopolitical context in order to maintain the momentum of Taiwan's economy.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Dependency
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

110. Quantum technologies and value chains: Why and how Europe must act now

Author:
Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As next-generation foundational technologies, quantum computing, communication, and sensing carry significant economic and security implications that go to the core of today’s strategic competition. In contrast with the US, where Big Tech actors dominate, Europe’s strengths lie in a vibrant ecosystem of research organisations and start-ups. This growing ecosystem is now at a critical juncture to develop into an internationally competitive European industry. This paper is based on research and a series of workshops conducted with European policymakers, stakeholders and industry actors looking into Europe’s technological position in contested international value chains. It proposes ten recommendations for the EU’s industrial policy mix under the following headings: KNOW – Embrace tech forecasting at the EU level COOPERATE – Combine European efforts in an EU Quantum Industrial Alliance INVEST – Mobilise European public-private capital for industrial scale-up PROTECT – Deploy Europe’s defensive toolbox prudently In a year that will see the launch of the EU Sovereignty Fund and adoption of the European Chips Act, quantum stands as a test case for the EU’s technological competitiveness and industrial policy agenda.
Topic:
Security, Economics, European Union, Industry, Quantum Computers, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Europe

111. Resisting China’s Gray Zone Military Pressure on Taiwan

Author:
Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) has sharply escalated its pressure campaign targeting the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) in recent years. Beijing appears likely to use Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election in January 2024 as a pretext to apply more pressure on the self-governing island, particularly in the “gray zone” using China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), along with other tools of state power. There is no precise and commonly agreed upon definition of what gray zone activities are and are not. In general, though, the concept refers to actions that fall into the space between, on one side, peace and, on the other, full-scale kinetic war.1 Gray zone activities are coercive and aggressive but designed to stay below the threshold of triggering major conflict. China uses gray zone operations as part of a comprehensive strategy to pressure Taiwan that spans the areas of diplomacy, information, economics, and security. This policy brief examines one major component of that campaign: gray zone military and security operations. It starts by detailing the capabilities and tactics China uses to put security pressure on Taiwan. Then, it explains what Beijing seeks to achieve with those actions. The paper concludes with recommendations for how U.S. and Taiwan policymakers can resist and counter China’s gray zone operations.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Military Affairs, and Information
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

112. Innovation and Economic Value: A Prospective Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Fab Bhutan Challenge

Author:
Milan Thomas
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
National governments and international donors fund challenge competitions to foster innovation, but there is little evidence on the economic return to such investments. This paper conducts an ex-ante benefit-cost analysis to project the economic return on the 2023 Fab Bhutan Challenge, which was part of FAB23 Bhutan (the 19th annual international Fab Lab Conference). For the Challenge benefits side of the analysis, studies covering five topics were drawn from: crop yield improvements from climate adaptation (for Challenge 1 in Sarpang), cost and time savings from improved water supply (for Challenge 2 in Pangbisa), livelihood savings from human-wildlife conflict prevention (Challenge 3 in Limbukha Chiwog), revenue generation from cultural exports (Challenge 4 in Thimphu), and economic returns from special needs education (Challenge 5 in Rinchending). For the Challenge costs side, budget data were collected and interviews with challenge participants were conducted. Conservative estimates that account for the probability of some challenge solutions ultimately being nonviable place the economic return to Bhutan between $5 and $12 per dollar invested. The paper concludes by discussing opportunities for scaling solutions from the structured innovation challenge based on the global evidence, and implications of the study for Bhutan’s economic aspirations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Labor Issues, Water, Innovation, Productivity, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Human-Wildlife Conflict, and Special Education
Political Geography:
South Asia and Bhutan

113. RCEP and Indonesia: Economic Reform and Prospects for Implementation

Author:
Yose Rizal Damuri and Deni Friawan
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is very important for Indonesia as it may bring many benefits to the country. This paper is an attempt to see the role of domestic political-economy dynamics in facilitating and constraining Indonesia’s decision to join, ratify, and implement a free trade agreement (FTA). It also seeks some understanding on whether an FTA can bring significant market liberalisation. This paper focuses on two areas of observation. First, it discusses the current progress of the legislative process and public acceptance of the RCEP agreement in Indonesia and how the process is influenced by the political-economy dynamics of the country. Second, the paper also looks at the potential impacts of the agreement on Indonesia’s current reform agenda, especially the recently passed Jobs Creation Law (Law No. 11/2020). For these observations, we conduct a content analysis on RCEP-related news published in two newspapers in Indonesia, namely Kompas and the Jakarta Post. In addition to content analysis, we also conducted interviews with stakeholders, including parliament members and government officials from the Ministry of Trade who have been actively involved in RCEP negotiations and the ratification process. The paper provides some remarks and recommendations for the future agenda of RCEP ratification and implementation in Indonesia.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Policy Implementation, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

114. What Japanese Tourism Amenities are Influenced in Terms of Affecting Inbound Tourist Demand?

Author:
Yoko Konishi and Takashi Saito
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Since 2012, the number of inbound tourists to Japan has increased every year, and new records of tourism-related economic indicators are being updated. On the other hand, the sudden inbound boom has led to a concentration of travel destinations, and over-tourism has become a problem. In this paper, we first statistically observe the concentration of tourists by accommodation type for each country of origin. Second, by identifying tourism amenities that contribute to inbound demand, we gain the knowledge necessary to shift demand from facilities with a high concentration of inbound tourists to facilities with lower occupancy. For the analysis, we utilised establishment data from the Online Travel Agency ‘Accommodation Travel Statistics Survey’ and data on tourism resources by region. The results show that the number of rooms, average price, membership of the hotel in a chain, internet availability, room type, number of World Heritage sites, and number of direct flights positively affect inbound demand. In particular, for ryokan (Japanese-style inns) with low occupancy rates and inbound guest ratios, their independence, internet availability, Western-style room availability, number of World Heritage sites, and hot spring facilities are effective in capturing demand.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Hospitality, and Travel
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

115. Istanbul Journal of Economics: Volume 73 Issue 2

Author:
Gökhan Karabulut
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, Tourism, Capitalism, Finance, Ethics, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

116. Housing in Wyoming: Constraints and Solutions

Author:
Thảo-Nguyên Bùi, Tim Freeman, Ricardo Hausmann, Farah Kaddah, Lucas Lamby, Tim O'Brien, and Eric Protzer
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Quantitative evidence supports the contention that Wyoming’s housing market is constrained, to a greater degree than many other parts of the US. Prices are persistently above expectations given economic fundamentals in most parts of the state, and the supply of new housing in Wyoming is on average less responsive to price increases than in other US counties. This has undermined natural population growth and contributed to a low amount of population density close to city centers in Wyoming, as compared to other US cities with comparable population levels. Importantly, this phenomenon is not simply the result of pandemic-era economic frictions. The evidence shows that these constraints have durably persisted in Wyoming. This housing constraint weighs heavily on the broader Wyoming’s economy, and chokes off growth in new industries that could add to the Wyoming economy beyond its natural resource base. Businesses consistently report a lack of access to workforce as a leading problem that ultimately results from a lack of housing. Some businesses have even tried to create their own housing for employees, and news reports abound of teachers and nurses who secure jobs in Wyoming communities but then have to leave because they cannot find housing. Key problems behind Wyoming’s housing constraints include excessive regulations concerning housing density and insufficient investment in arterial infrastructure. For example, there is evidence that over-regulated minimum lot sizes in Wyoming are blocking the creation of supply to match free-market demand for houses with smaller amounts of land. Other areas of over-regulation include those concerning allowable housing types, building height, parking spaces per dwelling, and the housing approval process itself. This may be seen as surprising given Wyoming’s reputation as a low-regulation state, but Wyoming maintains restrictions that other states and countries have discarded as outdated and highly counterproductive. Besides outright restrictions on housing development, we find that the most common cost driver undermining the housing development has to do with low public investment in needed arterial infrastructure, especially water systems. Land supply as well as material and construction costs are not primary constraints to housing development across the state, but may matter for select communities. We suggest a portfolio of policy changes for the state of Wyoming to explore in order to solve its housing constraints. One category of changes is regulatory, and focuses on deregulation, reducing bureaucratic overhead, and shifting from veto-cratic to democratic housing approval procedures. Another category is focused on investment on infrastructure to support housing, and exploration of state-local funding structures to facilitate continuous infrastructure improvement. If implemented, these changes will not only help to solve Wyoming’s housing constraints but also facilitate housing development in a way that combats urban sprawl, and in doing so protects open spaces outside of cities that Wyomingites value.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Public Policy, and Housing
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

117. Is there Eurasian Connectivity without Europe?

Author:
Niva Yau
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Tucked between Russia, Iran, and China, Central Asia is now desperately looking for solutions to cushion the impacts of global tension on its fragile economies, which are deeply tied to sanctions against Russia and a local production slowdown as China recovers from its zero COVID policy. While European diplomacy has come at a crucial time, its Central Asian policy is ambiguous, and commitments misplaced. Central Asia is continuously perceived by the EU as a region in need of developmental assistance, which leads to European regional policies that focus on digitalization and climate issues. What Central Asia needs is the establishment of concrete logistical connectivity that will enable efficient flow of products across Eurasia.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Economics, European Union, Connectivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Asia

118. Turkey’s Growing Ukrainian and Russian Communities

Author:
Sude Akgundogdu and Collin Trissel
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since the 1990s, Turkey has become a major destination for tourists and migrants from Ukraine, Russia, and other former Soviet states. Yet Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine set into motion an even greater wave of migrants from both countries. Those fleeing the crisis have used myriad channels to enter and remain in Turkey, from obtaining “golden visas” to applying for protection. Going forward, their presence could have a sizable effect on future socioeconomic ties between the three countries.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

119. Hakan Fidan and the New Turkish Diplomacy in Iraq

Author:
Firas Elias
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s victory in the Turkish general elections in May 2023, Turkish foreign policy in Iraq has the potential to evolve in a different direction under the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan. Though the management of Turkey’s affairs in Iraq has shifted between various Turkish institutions since 2003, President Erdoğan has consolidated decision-making into his own hands since 2017, and his recent appointment of Fidan—a former intelligence director and loyal ally of Erdoğan—signals a continuation of this process, especially vis-a-vis Iraq. As Director of National Intelligence, Fidan oversaw the most sensitive backchannels with various regional and international actors, and he played a leading role in formulating Turkish intelligence and security policy. Notably, Fidan also led Turkey's reconciliation efforts with a variety of adversaries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He has also been intimately involved in Turkish efforts to combat the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), targeting many PKK leaders and allied factions in northern Iraq, particularly in Sinjar, Makhmur, and al-Kuwayr. In this regard, Fidan comes equipped with deep connections to Iraq’s bureaucratic circles, having already succeeded in building bridges between various Iraqi actors and institutions. In particular, Fidan has developed close ties with both Sunni and Kurdish political leaders and has good relations with Falih al-Fayyadh, chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces, whom he met during one of his secret trips to Iraq in September 2022. Fidan notably conducted such bridge-building efforts during the formation of the current Iraqi government led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Given this background in Iraqi politics along with his experience in intelligence, Fidan is an important player through which Erdoğan can rethink Turkish involvement in Iraq on a number of different issues. Though Fidan’s appointment certainly indicates a shift toward more security-focused policies for Turkey, the new minister will also have to balance Turkey’s political ties, economic and energy interests, environmental concerns, and military operations in Iraq. Indeed, Erdoğan likely hopes that Fidan can both diversify Turkey’s relationship networks in Iraq and reestablish normalized energy negotiations with key partners while also curbing the threat of the PKK and Iranian-aligned militias operating in Turkey’s areas of involvement in Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

120. Analysis of Foreign Trade Between Türkiye and Africa

Author:
Şükrü Cicioğlu and Ryan Hafiz Ahmed İbrahim
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
While enhancing our economic relations with African countries was positioned as a target within Türkiye’s vision, especially after the Cold War, this could only come true in the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, there have been significant trade volume developments. Although Türkiye had a trade deficit with Africa from the mid-90s to the early 2000s, it became a surplus party in the subsequent period due to stagnation and the impacts of various crises. The trade with Africa is primarily with North African countries due to geographical proximity and historical ties. While Africa's share in Türkiye's total foreign trade volume has been gradually increasing, it remains significantly lower compared to Asia and Europe. Relations between the continent and Türkiye haven’t grown stronger yet, mainly because most African countries were former colonies. On the other hand, Türkiye's geographical proximity to Africa offers a significant opportunity to meet African countries' agricultural and food needs. In this context, this study aims to analyze Türkiye’s trade with the African continent and to reveal the opportunities, threats, strengths, and weaknesses this trade offers for both actors. Furthermore, the study provides recommendations to enhance these relations in this framework.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, History, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

121. Decoding China’s Dilemma: The Difficulties Of Economic Reform

Author:
Sunny Cheung
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On November 27, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) unveiled a new policy, titled “Notice on Strengthening Financial Support Measures for the Private Economy (关于强化金融支持举措 助力民营经济发展壮大的通知)” (People’s Bank of China, November 27). The notice introduces a set of 25 measures crafted to reinvigorate the private sector. These prioritize key areas such as technological innovation, green initiatives, and primary support for small to medium-sized enterprises. The package includes increasing financial assistance and gradually enhancing the proportion of loans to private businesses. It underscores the importance of facilitating credit, lowering interest rates, issuing bonds, and other kinds of financial instruments to meet the varied financing needs of private enterprises. This policy measure echoes mandates put forth during the 20th Party Congress in October 2022 and Central Financial Work Conference held at the end of October 2023 in response to China’s deepening economic woes (Xinhua, November 1). This backdrop has prompted policies aimed at addressing the challenges facing the Chinese economy. In October, the PRC National Bureau of Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2 percent year-on-year—worse than expected and marking a contraction since July (RTHK, November 9). This ominous data, which includes price deflation for both July and October this year, is indicative of significant weakness in domestic demand, particularly due to the underperforming real estate market, which affects citizens’ expectations for asset prices. The ongoing economic downturn in China also refutes the notion that economic chaos would clear up after the abandonment of the Zero-Covid policy. This situation is also similar to the Japan-style recession in the 90s in which consumption and investment are further repressed in favor of paying down debt. China’s recent response has been to implement a series of economic stimulus measures in an attempt to revive its weakening national economy.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Business, and Banking
Political Geography:
China and Asia

122. The Chinese Debate on Economic Reform

Author:
Arran Hope
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
A steady drumbeat of ominous data and troubling commentary on the state of China’s economy has punctuated the summer months. Reports from the commentariat in the anglosphere have provided diagnostic analysis and detailed potential policy solutions that the Chinese government might pursue. However, China’s central decision makers in the Politburo or in the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), are more likely to take their cues from internal advisors and domestic experts within the PRC than from those outside. As such, one fruitful exercise is to take the temperature of voices within the system to determine the extent to which their perceptions align or diverge from those in the West, and to ascertain which views carry weight with the final arbiters of economic policy in Beijing. By doing so, analysts outside of China may better comprehend the future (mis)steps that China will take as it struggles to achieve its aim of “basically realizing socialist modernization.” In July, the Chinese government held several meetings and released documents pertaining the economy. On July 24 the Politburo met to discuss the economy as it usually does this time of year. But on the same day, a 17-point plan was issued by the NDRC, following on from a 31-point plan co-issued by the State Council and the Central Committee ten days prior. These send a clear message about the concern in government over China’s straitened circumstances. Indeed, just this week, the NDRC announced a new “private economy development bureau” to further support private industry (NDRC, September 4). The assessment of the situation is put bluntly in the Politburo readout: “the current economic system is facing new challenges… insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in some enterprise’s operations, multiple risks in key areas, and a complex and severe external environment.”
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
China and Asia

123. A Belt and Road to Nowhere? Italy on the Frontlines of Europe’s Changing Strategy Toward China

Author:
Andrew R. Novo
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
During her tenure as Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni has been far more active on the international scene than most observers predicted. Within the first ten months of her tenure, she has traveled to capitals across Europe, Asia, and North Africa and has hosted numerous foreign leaders on official visits. In July, Meloni visited Washington, D.C. where she and President Biden affirmed their commitment to deepening collaboration across various areas of shared interests. Meloni’s foreign policy agenda has touched on a range of issues including, but not limited to, European security, migration, energy policy, and international trade. It is on this last issue that Italy’s decision-making might be most impactful. As the Meloni administration reassesses its economic partnerships around the world, Italy’s relations—and by extension the European Union’s (EU) overarching position—towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could witness lasting changes. At the heart of the new government’s economic policy lies its choice of whether to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meloni—along with many members of her cabinet—have voiced skepticism towards the agreement. As such, everything is on the table in the run-up to the decision at the end of the year.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

124. The Demise of Diplomatic Ambiguity: Parsing South Korea’s Estrangement From China

Author:
Matthew Fulco
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In July, the US Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN) visited South Korea for the first time since 1981. Not one, but two of the 560-foot-long warships—which carried a payload of 24 long-range Trident ballistic missiles—surfaced in South Korean waters (Korea JoongAn Daily, July 24, 2023). From Washington and Seoul’s perspective, the SSBN deployment was a pointed reminder to the mercurial North Korean regime to exercise restraint, but the symbolism of the SSBN visit was not lost on China—Pyongyang’s closest ally. For all its military modernization efforts, Beijing has no effective defense against the Ohio-class sub. That South Korea would support the deployment of the SSBNs to its territory illustrates both its concern about rising North Korean brinkmanship and newfound willingness to risk Beijing’s ire. Indeed, after three decades of stable ties anchored in economic interdependence, major changes are afoot in the South Korea-China relationship. Compared to Japan, which also counts China as its largest trading partner, South Korea has historically been less willing to stand its ground in the face of political pressure from Beijing. On the one hand, Seoul and Beijing have no major territorial disputes, but more importantly, South Korea had previously calculated that its political deference—especially on China’s “core interests” like Taiwan—would encourage Beijing to support denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) top foreign policy objective. For many years, South Korea handled Beijing with kid gloves, irrespective of who was in the Blue House. While the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is traditionally more China-friendly, it was the conservative President Park Geun-hye who attended China’s jingoistic September 2015 military parade. After a summit between Xi Jinping and Park, both leaders made a commitment to oppose any unilateral actions that could lead to tension on the Korean Peninsula. The following day, President Park joined Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in China’s military parade. South Korea was the only US ally to attend the event (The Korea Herald, September 3, 2015). Since then, however, the two countries have drifted apart. The catalyst for this change was Seoul’s decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in 2017, which China views as a security threat and South Korea deems essential for self-defense. China has repeatedly demanded that South Korea dismantle its THAAD system (Xinhua, September 21, 2017). When those demands failed to bear fruit, it resorted to sanctions against South Korea (The Korea Herald, March 8, 2017). Furthermore, both China’s imposition of a draconian national security law in Hong Kong and its mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic have hurt its reputation in South Korea (The South China Morning Post, October 20, 2020). It is against this backdrop that the ROK’s anti-China sentiment has surged to an all-time high—a development that will inevitably spill over into Seoul’s foreign policy. According to a 2021 survey conducted by SisaIN, for the first time since the ROK and the PRC normalized relations in 1992, South Koreans view China even more negatively than they do Japan (SisaIN, November 29, 2021). China’s ruling Communist Party seems oblivious to the existential threat that South Korea feels in the face of surging missile tests by North Korea. The JoongAng Daily noted in June that it takes just two minutes for a North Korean missile to hit Seoul. According to the editorial, “South Korea is technically still at war with North Korea. The government and people must not forget that” (Yonhap News Agency, June 1, 2023). Concluding that political appeasement and economic engagement with China have failed to pay off, South Korea is taking two significant steps: strengthening its ties with its top security partner, the US, and mending fences with its former rival, Japan. The implications of Seoul’s estrangement from Beijing could have far-reaching implications for geopolitics in the broader Indo Pacific region.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

125. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Socio-Cultural and Political Implications for Pakistan Amid Covid19 and the Way Forward

Author:
Mubeen Adnan and Reema Murad
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Through the ‘game changer’ project of China Pakistan Economic Corridor, China is aiming to stabilize its western part by promoting investment and economic development in its neighbour to the West, Pakistan, which will lead to a boost in the Pakistani economy through investments in infrastructure and construction of gas and oil pipeline. There is also the aim of reducing extremism in the Xinjiang region. However, there are several social, cultural and political changes that the project has the potential to bring about in Pakistan. This research work has made an attempt to understand the variousimplications of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor on Pakistan as well as how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted CPEC and the path ahead as the world slowly transitions out of COVID-19. This research paper has used secondary sources in order to answer these pertinent topics. Major opportunities which Pakistan and China have gained through this ChinaPakistan economic Corridor as well as some challenges are also discussed.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Investment, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

126. Deciphering Pakistan Navy’s Role in CPEC Security: A Comprehensive Security Approach

Author:
Shabana Fayyaz and Nabeel Hussain
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Contemporary geo-political and geo-economics potentialities creates new horizons for the bilateral relations between states. These potential arrangements require security as a pre-requisite, both traditional and nontraditional domain. Pakistan Navy is dealing with these security threats from a comprehensive security approach. Through Task Force-88 and Task Force-150 as well as the Force Protection Battalion (FPB) for the security of CPEC from foreign actors, it has made enormous efforts to protect the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from new challenges and threats. This demonstrates that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Pakistan Navy might accomplish compressive security through joint efforts. The protection and defence of sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) and the maritime-based economy are also enshrined in Pakistan's maritime doctrine. The Pakistan Navy's active engagement in Pakistan's security sector has also opened doors for the improvement of bilateral ties between various countries through the AMAN Exercises, a global collaboration of 45 nations to combat rising security threats.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Non-Traditional Threats, and CPEC
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and South Asia

127. The EU–US Data Protection Framework: Balancing Economic, Security and Privacy Considerations

Author:
Federica Marconi
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The rapid evolution of digital technology has ushered in a data-centric economy, where data accessibility drives marketplace efficiency and economic growth across various industries. However, this shift, while offering numerous benefits, introduces significant privacy and data security challenges, particularly in the context of transatlantic data transfers. Considering the vast economic ties between the EU and the US, the transatlantic data flow vividly illustrates the complexities involved in governing and transferring data. It grapples with the ongoing challenge of striking a satisfactory balance between economic advantages stemming from data utilisation and various concerns pertaining to national security, digital sovereignty and individual rights. In recent years, the European Commission approved two different frameworks on transatlantic data flow – Safe Harbour in 2000[1] and Privacy Shield in 2016[2] – asserting that the US provided a level of data protection for data transfers essentially equivalent to that guaranteed in the EU. However, despite initial optimism, both adequacy decisions faced a significant setback when the Court of Justice of the European Union invalidated them in what is commonly referred to as the “Schrems saga”,[3] named after the Austrian activist who first challenged both frameworks before the European Court. The core arguments centred on the absence of adequate safeguards for personal data within US domestic law and the extent of state surveillance over such data when it was transferred, as initially disclosed by Edward Snowden in 2013.[4] This legal development led to a period of significant uncertainty and further heightened the ongoing debate concerning the regulation of transatlantic data transfer. To address the consequences of this legal turmoil, both EU and the US committed to establishing “a renewed and sound framework for transatlantic data flows”,[5] seeking a long-term solution to address the complexities of data privacy and security, eventually leading to the recently adopted EU–US Data Privacy Framework (“DPF”).
Topic:
Security, Economics, Political Economy, European Union, Privacy, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

128. To Deal or Not to Deal: How to Support Tunisia out of Its Predicament

Author:
Michaël Ayari and Riccardo Fabiani
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia is beset by deepening political and economic challenges. President Kais Saied is transforming the country’s parliamentary system into an authoritarian presidential one that has become increasingly repressive. Arrests and convictions of opposition politicians have surged. Saied’s aggressive anti-foreigner discourse has fuelled xenophobic sentiment and contributed to a spike in violent attacks against sub-Saharan migrants. Economically, Tunisia is grappling with the fallout of a decade of sluggish growth compounded by a series of economic shocks since 2020. The nation’s public debt has soared, with significant debt repayments looming. As the country tries to deal with mounting financial constraints, its inability to attract foreign loans is further clouding its economic future. Saied now must decide whether to embrace a credit agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or potentially default on Tunisia’s foreign debt. Against this backdrop, the EU and, in particular, Italy have a pivotal role to play. They can either help steer Tunisia toward a more stable economic future or watch it descend into chaos.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Aid, European Union, and IMF
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

129. Measuring economic resilience for the CEE and Black Sea countries in the framework of comprehensive defense

Author:
Maria Constantinescu
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The main research objective of this paper is to identify key factors influencing economic resilience from the perspective of comprehensive defence. This involves developing a composite economic resilience index (Ericda) that outlines the relative economic resilience of countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea regions, within the comprehensive defence framework. The paper employs qualitative research methods, focusing on an analysis of specialist literature pertaining to economic resilience. Quantitative methods are also used for developing the Economic Resilience Index from the Comprehensive Approach to Defence (Ericda) perspective. This includes using data on selected resilience indicators in Central and the Eastern European and Black Sea region countries to generate rankings. The results of the study reveal strong positive correlations between the economic resilience index and various factors, such as logistics and infrastructure, economic complexity, foreign trade vulnerabilities and dependence, economic stability and development, governance effectiveness, military, and human capital. Additionally, a negative correlation was observed with the resilience index. The research findings suggest that to ensure effective comprehensive defence, isolated measures targeting individual pillars are inadequate. Economic resilience requires a collaborative approach, extending beyond the purview of the finance ministry and involving a broader range of stakeholders.
Topic:
Economics, International Security, Resilience, Economic Security, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Black Sea

130. Exchange Rate Arrangements: Fix, Float, or Manage?

Author:
Nathaniel Cline, Carlos Schönerwald da Silva, and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The paper tries to provide a concise summary of the main debates on exchange rate arrangements. It a simple taxonomy of exchange rate arrangements, fixed, flexible and managed, and a brief analysis of the main debates about their advantages and disadvantages. It emphasizes the different policy objectives of mainstream and heterodox schools of thought, suggesting that they tend to be more relevant than the specific defense of one particular exchange rate arrangement. In that sense, there are divergences on their preferences within schools of thought. The paper also discusses the causes of currency crises and the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Crisis Management, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

131. Optimal Inflation Targeting With Anchoring

Author:
Thomas Michl
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper presents an alternative foundation to the standard quadratic loss function characterizing central bank inflation policy. The alternative treats high employment as a social benefit. In recognition of the inherent asymmetry of the output gap, two self-imposed constraints provide guardrails that rule out excess unemployment and opportunistic reflation. The loss function includes a novel reverse discounting mechanism that penalizes the bank for more sustained inflation gaps that could undermine confidence in the central bank’s target. In the absence of anchoring, the central bank is obliged to use economic slack to accomplish a disinflation but the presence of anchoring creates greater policy flexibility freeing it from the tyranny of the sacrifice ratio. The central bank’s optimal policy differs dramatically from the standard Taylor Rule recommendation in choosing policy plans with higher employment, in its willingness to overshoot inflation targets, and in avoiding excess unemployment, all while observing the discipline needed for successful inflation targeting.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

132. The Crisis of Capitalism, the Noun

Author:
Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper explores the challenges that feminist theory, stratification economics, and intersectionality pose to the characterization of capitalism as a unitary system. Attention to the structural basis for inequalities based on gender and race weakens traditional Marxian concepts of exploitation based on the appropriation of surplus value. On the other hand, the continuing relevance of many forms of collective conflict heightens appreciation of the ways in which capitalist institutions discourage the forms of cooperation necessary to address both ecological threats and shortfalls in care provision.
Topic:
Economics, Race, Capitalism, Intersectionality, Gender, and Feminist Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

133. Geopolitics, the Global South and Development Policy

Author:
Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This policy brief discusses the new geopolitical and geo-economic context and its significance for the Global South and the development policies of Western actors. The systemic confrontation between China and the USA, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also the seizure of power through a military putsch in Niger, among other places, show: The environment for global cooperation efforts has become much more difficult. Actors in the Global South are no longer just participants on the sidelines of geopolitical conflicts, but are taking an active role. Western countries and Russia make strong efforts to woo them. At the same time, China and India in particular aspire to leadership roles as leaders for the Global South. The following points are of particular importance: (1) The changes in the international system have given the Global South as a group (despite the enormous differences between the actors in this group) a new impetus of identity – similar to the West. It is noteworthy that this North/South bloc formation makes other possible commonalities less pronounced. This applies above all to the attempt – which has been less success-ful so far – to strengthen the identification of open democratic systems as a mark of belonging. For many debates and alliances, the identification “Global North/South” is formative. Formation of North and South camps is not helpful for finding international solutions. Approaches to counteract entrenched bloc formations and to create effective formats for exchange and understanding are therefore important. (2) From the perspective of Southern actors, the existing international order is a deeply unjust system that primarily protects the interests of the West, and especially those of the USA. Political offers from the West that do not really lead to structural changes are unlikely to arouse interest in the Global South, and will instead favour counter-designs – be they from China with its claim to leadership for the Global South or Russia. (3) In principle, the development policy of OECD actors has important potential to help shape the realignment of relations with the Global South. The policy field is, on the one hand, a proof of international credibility (among other things, fulfilment of international obligations) and, on the other hand, an approach that makes it possible to work with operational means on international problems in the first place. (4) Western development policy is likely to face further difficult situations with risks of escalation and failure (such as Niger and Afghanistan) in the face of multiple tensions in developing regions. Development policy should reflect the geopolitical context even more consciously in strategy and action. The defining geo-political context harbours the danger that the original development policy task – sustainable development of the partner countries – will be overshadowed. (5) Overall, it should be an important concern to rethink how international burden-sharing for development and climate finance agendas is organised. Here, it is important to consider both the actors from the Global North and those from the Global South.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, International Order, Cooperation, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Global South

134. The Effects of Robotization on Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Sungwoo Hong, Wongi Kim, and Yeo Joon Yoon
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study aims to investigate the effects of robotization on foreign direct investment (FDI). We address this research question by providing a theoreti-cal prediction derived from a simple model and then empirically testing our prediction. Theoretically, we found that an exogenous rise in industrial robots depresses both the robot rental rate and the domestic cost of task execution. Thus, it is more profitable to perform more tasks at home, leading to a de-crease in FDI. Empirical results are summarized as follows. First, an increase in robotization in source countries negatively affects outward FDI. Second, this negative effect is not consistent across global regions.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Industrial Structure
Political Geography:
Global Focus

135. An Analysis on the Regional Integration of Northeast Asia by Developing NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index)

Author:
Ji Young Moon, Jehoon Park, and Sung-Hoon Park
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper aims to develop an index to analyze regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, which is Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index(NARCI). NARCI evaluates intra-regional cooperation and integration in four areas, which are functional cooperation, politico-security cooperation, socio-cultural cooperation, and institutionalization, in order to identify the conflict and cooperation situation in the Northeast Asian region. The analysis of economic integration found that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is characterized by a high level of integration in goods trade and regional value chain cooperation, but a relatively low level of integration in intra-regional direct investment and energy supply chain cooperation. The analysis of the political and security cooperation shows that the intensification of U.S.-China competition and the factional confrontation between Korea, U.S., Japan, and North Korea, China, Russia have had a significant impact on regional cooperation in political and diplomatic security. The result shows that the level of integration is low, with all evaluation indicators being negative. The analysis of the socio-cultural integration shows a relatively low level of integration in civil society cooperation and intergovernmental exchanges, a relatively high level of integration in cultural and educational exchanges and study abroad, and a neutral level of integration in information technology cooperation, labor mobility, and the share of tourists in the region. Finally, the analysis of institutional integration shows a relatively high level of integration in the bilateral channels between governments and the institutionalization of regional cooperation in the socio-cultural field, and half of the countries had institutional integration in financial integration and regional cooperation in the economic field. The level of integration in the political and security field was low due to the existence of only multilateral meetings. The analysis of NARCI shows that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the economy and socio-culture has been expanding in recent years. However, the low level of political and diplomatic cooperation in the region and related institutional deficiencies are considered to be insufficient to buffer these risks, and efforts are needed to address them.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Regional Cooperation, Economic Growth, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Asia and Northeast Asia

136. Analysis of Trade Pattern Between the EAEU and South Korea

Author:
Zoia Podoba
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a relatively newly-formed regional integration bloc. It evolved on the basis of the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in 2015 with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joining the agreement. The foreign economic aspirations of the EAEU as a single market, in the context of tense relations with Western partners, are turned towards Asian countries. The pivot to the East is supported by the ideological concept of “Greater Eurasia” (sometimes translated as “Big Eurasia”), which implies more extensive cooperation with the economies of Central, East, and South Asia. At a time when political efforts to bring the Union and Korea closer together have been put on hold, the paper aims to provide a comprehensive description of the bilateral merchandise trade pattern between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea to verify if statistical evidence on bilateral trade provides ground for the development of guiding actual policy deliberations in the future. Trade Intensity Index (TII), the sectoral bilateral coefficient of revealed comparative advantages, and the standard Grubel-Lloyd index have been used in order to analyze the bilateral trade between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Asia, and South Korea

137. Enhancing Korea’s Services Trade Statistics: Policy Recommendations

Author:
Jongduk Kim
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study revisits the definition of trade in services, explores the translation of service statistics into the Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC), proposes a method to estimate Korea's services trade by mode of service supply under the WTO trade agreement, and seeks ways to collect data on digital trade in services. It classifies the objectives pertaining to the enhancement of Korea's service trade statistics into short-term, medium-term, and long-term agendas.
Topic:
Economics, Trade, WTO, and Service Delivery
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

138. A Review of Changes in the Global Value Chain of Latin America

Author:
Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Based on the findings of the value chain analysis conducted on major Latin American countries, it suggests that these countries may have derived certain economic benefits. This can be attributed to the increased exports to the United States and China, where Latin American countries served as substitute countries for imports during the intensifying competition between the two nations. Amidst the U.S.-China hegemony race and the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a notable shift in focus. Particularly, the United States is actively working to establish secure and stable supply chains, primarily centered around its own country and allied nations, with the intention of reducing dependence on China. As part of this process, the United States advocates for reshoring or near-shoring, which involves relocating production facilities to its home country or neighboring nations. Additionally, the U.S. is implementing various incentives to support this objective. If near-shoring takes place in Latin America, they can be regarded as favorable locations for establishing a foothold to access North America or securing key minerals. Additionally, Latin American countries with substantial backward linkages should be prioritized in trade with the United States. Among them, Mexico and Brazil, which exhibit relatively high levels of backward linkage within Latin America, are considered suitable hubs due to their capacity for generating significant foreign added value in their exports to the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Trade, Global Value Chains, COVID-19, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

139. How Well Does Korea's Employment Insurance System Support Workers Facing Trade Shocks?

Author:
Kyong Hyun Koo
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study uses worker-level longitudinal panel data and trade data to conduct an analysis of the performance of Korea's employment insurance system in supporting trade-affected workers. We find that the rapid economic growth of China and Vietnam since the 2000s has subjected some Korean industries to heightened import competition. The Korean workers who were employed in these industries in their earlier careers tended to experience a long-term (10-year) decline in the growth rate of labor income and a relative deterioration in their employment security as the probability of involuntary job separation increased. With an increased probability of involuntary job separation, workers in import-competing industries were more likely to receive unemployment benefits. This implies that the unemployment benefit system in Korea was relatively effective in the short term to alleviate employment shocks triggered by trade shocks. Nevertheless, the trade adjustment support function of the unemployment benefit system had certain limitations in that the receipt of unemployment benefits could not ultimately counteract the downward trend in long-term labor income for workers in import-competing industries. In contrast to unemployment benefits, government-supported vocational training holds the potential to increase the long-term earnings of workers more exposed to import competition. However, workers employed in import-competing industries were not more likely to participate in government-supported vocational training; on the contrary, workers in export-expanding industries were more likely to participate in government-supported vocational training. This finding implies that the jobs of workers in import-intensive industries were less likely to be covered by employment insurance than those in export-intensive industries. Consequently, workers in import-intensive industries, who are at greater risk of trade shocks, may be less safeguarded than their counterparts in export-growing industries under the prevailing employment insurance system.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Trade, and Insurance
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

140. Global Perspectives on ESG and Implications for Korea

Author:
Jinyoung Moon, Sang-Ha Yoon, Jiwon Park, Seung Kwon Na, and Sunghee Lee
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
ESG, which stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance, has gained significant importance in recent years. Adoption of Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to recover from COVID-19 have contributed to this global trend. Businesses and regulators are now placing more emphasis on the sustainability of economic activities and transparent disclosure of ESG information. In light of this, our study focuses on examining global ESG policy trends and supply chain due diligence regulations. We also compare ESG scores of firms across major countries and analyze the impacts of ESG performances on employment and productivity. Based on our findings, we aim to provide recommendations and implications for the government and private sector to address ESG in practice.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Governance, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

141. Japan’s New Trade Strategy Focuses on Supply Chain Resilience and Trade Liberalization

Author:
Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Since the inauguration of the U.S Trump administration in January 2017, Japan's trade strategies have been shifting from trade liberalization to protectionism, emphasizing the strengthening of supply chains. The Kishida cabinet, which was launched in October 2021, is strengthening economic cooperation with the United States through bilateral dialogue as well as multilateral cooperation frameworks such as IPEF. It also enacted the Economic Security Promotion Act in May 2022, and strengthened industrial policies for strategic industries such as the semiconductors. However, the Japanese government's new trade strategy is not limited to supply chain strengthening measures and industrial policies. It is aiming to take the lead in digital trade, which is a new trade issue, and bolster its leadership in CPTPP. This brief is structured as follows. In the following section we will examine Japan’s new trade strategy in terms of supply chain resilience, focusing on industrial policies represented by reshoring policy and national semiconductor strategy, and supply chain policies of critical materials outlined in the Economic Security Promotion Act enacted in May 2022. And we look at bilateral coopera-tion between the U.S and Japan, and key negotiation agenda on supply chains at the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). The third section reviews the Japan’s trade liberalization strategy focused on the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), and Digital Trade Agreements. In particular, we derived the direction of Japan’s free trade policy through an analysis of the characteristics of the CPTPP as a 21st-century trade norm, and a comparative analysis of major regulations related to e-commerce in the CPTPP, US-Japan Digital Trade Agreement, and RCEP.
Topic:
Economics, Trade, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

142. Trade and Investment Cooperation between South Korea and the Visegrad Group

Author:
Grzegorz Mazur
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The Visegrad group (V4) is a political alliance of four countries of Central Europe - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, reaching its roots to the beginning of the 1990s, when the countries started reforming their political and economic systems from centrally planned to democratic free market economies. The coalition - consisting of countries with similar historical experience, transformation challenges and level of socio-economic development - aimed at regional co-operation and mutual support on their strategic goal of full membership in the European Union (EU). The V4 countries are currently full members of the EU (since 2004) with dynamic and competitive economies. The four countries form a market of over 60 million consumers with a share of ca. 7.7% of the EU’s GDP (Table 1). Over last three decades V4 countries have experienced high economic growth, closing a development gap with highly developed countries of the EU. Their economies have opened up to the global trading system, changing directions (mostly towards other EU countries) and expanding volumes of their international trade. Liberalizing economies have become attractive destinations for FDIs due to their central location at the continent, well-educated society as well as restructuration and privatization of many economic sectors (Mazur, 2009). Joining the European Union in 2004, V4 countries became part of the European Single Market leading to various consequences for economic policy and business conditions. While membership in the EU brought new economic opportunities and enhanced the countries’ business attractiveness, it has also had relevant consequences for their trade co-operation with third countries. The V4 states adopted all rights and commitments from the EU’s Common Trade Policy and have since been developing their trade and economic co-operation with third countries, including the Republic of Korea, commonly with other EU partners and exclusively at the EU level.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Trade, Visegrad Group, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Central Europe

143. EU's Trade Strategies and Korea-EU Cooperation Plans

Author:
Young-ook Jang
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Jang et al. (2022) investigate the recent shifts in the European Union's medium- to long-term trade strategies, which have evolved in response to a rapidly changing global trade landscape. We closely examine the policy domains currently in the EU's spotlight, including supply chain resilience, digitalization, tackling climate change, and public health crisis management. Another objective of this study is to identify opportunities for cooperation between Korea and the EU in the above-mentioned areas. Our recommendations include fostering partnerships in Net-zero technology development and multilateral climate discussions, modernizing digital trade agreements, and enhancing pharmaceutical cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Korea

144. Policy Implications of the Biden Administration’s Global Supply Chain Reorganization

Author:
Gusang Kang
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study indirectly estimates the impact of implementation of the Biden government’s supply chain restructuring policy on the U.S. and Korean economies, and derives policy implications accordingly. For the first analysis to indirectly examine the economic impact of the global supply chain reorganization of the semiconductor and battery industries, we estimate the impact of changes in the export share of the semiconductor or battery industry by country on the change in GDP per capita. Our results show an increase in the export share of semiconductors or batteries has a statistically significant increase in GDP per capita. These results support the reason why the Biden administration is moving to expand its exports through the reorganization of the U.S.-centered supply chain in the industry. By reorganizing the supply chain centered on the U.S., President Biden intends to attract production facilities in weak sectors such as memory semiconductors, foundries, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing to the U.S. through cooperation with partner countries such as Taiwan and Korea in the short term. In conclusion, this policy promotion seems to be part of a strategy to discover sustainable economic growth engines for the U.S. while checking China’s technological rise in key industries, and restoring U.S. leadership. Secondly, we estimate the impact of changes in export concentration or import concentration by semiconductor or battery item in the U.S. and Korea on the change in net exports by the two countries. First of all, in the case of the U.S. semiconductor industry, changes in export concentration and import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on changes in net exports of the corresponding item. However, in the case of the Korean semiconductor industry, an increase in export concentration had a negative impact on the net export of the item, whereas a change in import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on the change in Korea’s net export of the same item. In the case of the U.S. battery industry, as the import concentration by item increases, the U.S. net export of the same item decreases. However, we find that both the increase in the concentration of exports and the concentration of imports in the Korean battery industry decrease net exports of the product. Taken together, it can be inferred that the concentration of supply chains in the semiconductor and battery industries in the U.S. or Korea has the potential to hinder economic growth by reducing net exports of the relevant items in both countries. Based on the analysis results, it is necessary to strengthen norms-based supply chain cooperation with the U.S. and efforts are needed to diversify the lithium-ion battery supply chain.
Topic:
Economics, Supply Chains, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

145. Economic Cooperation Policies of China, Japan and India towards South Asia and Their Implications for Korea

Author:
Jeong Gon Kim
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
With the Indo-Pacific region increasingly gaining recognition for its strategic importance, countries such as China, Japan, and India are seeking close economic cooperation with South Asian countries. This report analyses these countries’ strategic perspectives and cooperation policies towards South Asia (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) under the rapidly changing international political and economic environment, and examines Korea’s future economic cooperation strategies and policies. Korea’s economic cooperation with South Asian countries has mainly focused on ODA. Although trade and investment have been centered on some manufacturing industries, they have recently shown a shrinking trend. While competition among major countries in South Asia is in full swing, it is necessary to establish a new direction for economic cooperation and promote policies towards South Asia from a strategic perspective.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Integration, Economic Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

146. Impact of China's Emissions Trading System on Industries and its Policy Implications

Author:
Jihyun Jung
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
China, the world's largest carbon emitter and skeptical of developing countries’ emissions reduction commitments, announced internationally in 2020 its vision to peak carbon emissions in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China's emission reduction strategy has a significant impact on China's economy and society as a whole, and Korea, which has a close economic ties with China, will also be affected. China's carbon neutral policy announced in 2021 includes the continuous promotion of policies such as direct regulation, public investment, and subsidies, as well as the nationwide implementation of the ETS and the expansion of applicable industries. This study analyzed the impact of China's ETS on Chinese industries using the input-output model, and derived implications for Korea-China economic relations based on the results.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Trade, Industry, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

147. Central Asia’s Trade Strategies and Korea-Central Asia Cooperation Plans

Author:
Minhyeon Jeong, Dongyeon Jeong, Jiyoung Min, and Boogyun Kang
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The purpose of this research is to derive the future directions of the cooperation between Korea and Central Asia under the global uncertainty that is deepening with the competition and confrontation of major powers that cannot be easily resolved, and as the strategic value of economic security increases. In the situation where the sanctions against the Russian economy are expected to be prolonged, the geographical value of Central Asia, which connects Russia and Europe, becomes more prominent. In addition, given the rich natural resources and relatively young population structure of Central Asia, expanding cooperation with Central Asia has even more significant implications. In this study, we classified the five Central Asian countries into three middle-income countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) and two low-income countries (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) based on the similarities and differences revealed in the structural characteristics of each country's economy and the level of development. According to this classification, we analyzed the direction of cooperation in the digital, climate change, and health and medical sectors, which are currently in high demand for cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Health, International Cooperation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Central Asia and South Korea

148. U.S. Trade Strategies and Korea-U.S. Cooperation Plans

Author:
Gu Sang Kang, Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Kim, Hyuk Ju Kwon, Eunbin Park, and Yeo Joon Yoon
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The U.S. has taken a leading role in global discussions, not only in addressing major economic and trade issues but also in formulating cooperative measures on the international stage. Consequently, understanding the U.S. position and response strategies for each critical issue arising from external shocks is essential. This understanding holds significant importance in shaping Korea's mid- to long-term foreign economic strategy. By comprehending the U.S. position and response strategies, particularly regarding major issues, this study aims to derive Korea’s future trade strategies with the U.S. and develop cooperation plans with the U.S. As a result of conducting research under these objectives, the following cooperation strategies between South Korea and the United States have been derived. First, in the context of supply chain restructuring, South Korea should consider expanding local investment and production in the semiconductor and battery sectors within the U.S. close collaboration between the government and companies is essential to maximize national interests. It is crucial for our companies to take advantage of the tax incentives and other regulatory incentives offered by the U.S. government when entering the U.S. market, and our government should provide diplomatic support for these efforts. Regarding digital trade, South Korea should actively participate in international discussions led by the U.S. to set standards for essential infrastructure in the global digital transformation, such as advanced communication networks like 5G and 6G. Further-more, South Korea should actively lead discussions within the IPEF on the Trade Facilitation and Digital Commerce Working Group to overcome limitations within the KORUS FTA's digital trade provisions and collaborate with participating countries to develop a roadmap for digital trade norms. In the area of climate change mitigation, South Korea and the U.S. should strengthen their cooperation by promoting joint research in environmentally friendly, low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen production and utilization, fuel cells, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and energy storage devices. Additionally, both countries should collaborate on producing related products. Furthermore, South Korea should proactively engage with the U.S. in discussions related to climate change policies that the U.S. and the EU are considering. This proactive engagement can help increase the effectiveness of collaborative by anticipating the possibility that these policies may be-come international norms in the future.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

149. Structural Change Reversed: A Comparative Analysis Pre- and Post-2015

Author:
Santosh Mehrotra
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Since the well-known research of Simon Kuznets (Nobel Prize Winner in Economics), the structural transformation of all economies is characterised by two simultaneous phenomena. The first is that there is a structural shift in terms of the contribution of the three main sectors—agriculture, industry, and services—to the gross domestic product in favour of non-farm sectors; the second involves total employment in the economy—with a shift away from agriculture towards the other two main sectors of economic activity—first towards industry, followed by services. This paper is motivated by some major developments that have occurred in the macro-economy in India, and their implications for the labour market. It is an attempt to understand these significant changes to the labour market in agriculture in particular, which accounted for around two-fifths of India’s total workforce of 520 million in 2021. This paper is organised in three sections. Section 1 shows that structural transformation, which had been relatively slow for a significant part of the last century, gathered momentum during the first decade of the current century. It has been rather stalled for the last six years and has been reversed by poor economic policies and management. Section 2 examines how workers in agriculture have had to respond to the changed economic conditions and nonfarm labour market trends. The changes have only served to increase rural distress. In other words, far from farmers’ income having doubled between 2015 and 2022, as the Union government had attempted, the quality of work in agriculture has worsened, wages have fallen, and women (and men) who had exited agriculture have been forced to rejoin it. This is a form of disguised unemployment, with workers surviving merely on account of safety nets like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005 (MGNREGA) or cash transfer (PM Kisan) or Public Distribution System (PDS) rations (Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojna [PMGKY] was free during the pandemic). Section 3 examines the reasons for the emergence of these worsening labour market conditions. The concluding section summarises the findings.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Employment, Macroeconomics, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

150. Latin America and the ‘New Caucasus’: Linking Points Between Brazil and Azerbaijan

Author:
Roberto Rodolfo Georg Uebel
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
For those arriving in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, after crossing the Atlantic Ocean and flying over war-torn Europe, in addition to the modern buildings along the Caspian Sea coast and the unique hospitality of its people, what stands out the most is the emerging ‘New Caucasus’ on the horizon. It is a region no longer constrained by the geopolitical, geoeconomic, and cultural ties to the old Eastern Europe and no longer overshadowed by historical hegemons like Russia (most recently) and Iran (previously). When I visited in 2022, I discovered a country, and a region, that masterfully coordinates a pragmatic foreign policy without relinquishing its Caucasian and Caspian values and roots, creating a unique political identity that, to some extent, resembles our Latin American political identity, of course bearing in mind the appropriate hemispheric and historical proportions. My observation is that Azerbaijan is emerging as a strategic actor in the Caspian Sea region as well as in the relations between Central Asia, the Caucasus, the European Union, and the Middle East.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Brazil, Azerbaijan, Latin America, and South Caucasus