Topic: Economics - CIAO Search Results

101. Who wins wars?

Author:: Jonathan Federle, Dominic Rohner, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal effect of windfall gains on winning chances in interstate conflicts. We find a statistically significant and quantitatively large impact of windfall gains on winning odds and show that a key channel of transmission is a surge in military spending, after an exogenous increase in government revenues.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Military Spending, Fiscal Policy, Armed Conflict, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

102. Official Development Assistance

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Amidst rapidly shifting geopolitics, major donors such as the United States, the United Kingdom and European Union (EU) countries have announced significant reductions to their annual Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitments. In 2023, contributions from these countries accounted for 63 per cent of all ODA flows. A key driver of the current situation has been the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has led to unprecedented aid allocations to Ukraine. In 2023, Ukraine received $37 billion in ODA, equating to 14 per cent of all ODA disbursed in that year. In addition to ODA, military aid allocations to date have totalled $128 billion. Given the current climate, this report presents economic projections under various scenarios, indicating that ODA could decline by 20 to 40 per cent in the coming years. This would result in reductions of between $50 and $115 billion less aid relative to 2023 levels. In such scenarios, sub-Saharan Africa, MENA and Latin America could see cuts of 30-40 per cent in their ODA inflows, exacerbating risks of economic downturns, political instability, and humanitarian crises. The economies that will be most affected by ODA cuts are also in the least peaceful countries in the world. Most at risk include Afghanistan, Yemen, Central African Republic, and Somalia. Existing and emerging donors are unlikely to be able to fill the gap. Countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye contribute less than five per cent to the international aid system. With US support for Ukraine in question, EU countries may need to further increase their contributions to Ukraine and boost domestic military spending. Calls to raise EU military spending to five per cent of GDP could require an additional $560 billion annually, diverting funds from other sectors. In a climate of shrinking resources and rising demand, there is an urgent need for reforms that enhance the efficiency, transparency, and data-driven targeting of ODA. Investing in robust monitoring and evaluation systems is essential to ensure that limited aid funds yield maximum developmental and economic benefits.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Donors, Development Assistance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

103. Global Peace Index 2025

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 19th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. It uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators to measure the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. The 2025 GPI finds that global peacefulness continues to decline and that many of the leading factors that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of WWII. More countries are increasing their levels of militarisation against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, increasing conflict, the breakup of traditional alliances and rising economic uncertainty.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

104. Global Peace Index Briefing 2025

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The 2025 Global Peace Index reveals a fundamental reshaping of the global order not seen since the Cold War. It details a record decline in global peacefulness as rising conflict deaths, accelerating geopolitical tensions, and the erosion of social cohesion are driving ‘The Great Fragmentation’. The world is at an inflection point. While the number of conflicts is higher than at any time since World War II, they are also becoming unwinnable and increasingly expensive, yet global investment in conflict prevention have dramatically reduced. The last decade has seen major shifts in influence as middle level powers become more assertive within their respective regions. This has contributed to a record 78 countries being involved in conflicts beyond their borders. Combined with major power competition, the proliferation of asymmetric warfare technologies and mounting debt burdens in the most vulnerable states in the most fragile economies, the prospect for conflict has never been higher.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

105. Semiconductors and Statecraft: Belgium’s Role in Europe’s Technological Sovereignty

Author:: Victor De Decker and Marcus Loiseau
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium’s global role in semiconductors hinges not on scale but on control of a strategic chokepoint: upstream innovation. With imec at its centre, Belgium functions as Europe’s semiconductor R&D engine – but this asymmetric position leaves the country structurally exposed. Without manufacturing capacity, talent diversification, or broader ecosystem scaling, Belgium risks becoming a high-value subcontractor in a geopolitical and financial game it does not fully control. To remain indispensable – and not merely useful – Belgium must convert R&D dominance into strategic leverage, push for Chips Act reforms that close the EU’s coordination gaps, build scaling innovation ecosystems, and expand its influence within a fragmented European industrial policy landscape.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, European Union, Innovation, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Europe

106. Engendering Pluralism in Economics: Gendered Perspectives from an International Survey of Economists*

Author:: Mohsen Javdani
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This study contributes to growing calls for greater pluralism in economics by examining how gender shapes economists’ normative and epistemological orientations. Drawing on original survey data from 2,425 economists across 19 countries, we document systematic gender differences in views on a broad range of issues. Female economists are significantly more likely to support progressive equity-oriented positions, challenge mainstream assumptions, and endorse pluralistic approaches to inquiry. We also find stark gender differences in political ideology: women are far more likely than men to identify as left-leaning—particularly far-left—while men disproportionately align with centrist or right-leaning ideologies. These ideological divides account for some of the gender differences in views, underscoring the mediating role of political ideology. However, the influence of ideology itself varies by gender: moving rightward on the ideological spectrum reduces support for some progressive positions more sharply among men than women. This suggests that gendered experiences inform distinct interpretive frameworks that persist even within shared ideological categories. Taken together, our findings highlight that gender diversity in economics is not merely demographic but epistemic—and that realizing its transformative potential requires institutional environments that value and legitimize dissenting and underrepresented perspectives.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Ideology, Pluralism, and Gender Diversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

107. The Flawed Welfare Foundations of Pro-Free Trade Arguments

Author:: Mark Glick and Gabriel A. Lozada
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Free trade has long been defended as an unquestioned good in economics, yet its welfare foundations are deeply flawed. The efficiency gains highlighted by comparative advantage rest on the Potential Pareto Principle, which assumes away distributional concerns and treats aggregate surplus as synonymous with social welfare. In practice, free trade produces both winners and losers, often with significant and lasting harms to labor. Classical and modern theorists—from Ricardo to Samuelson—have acknowledged these problems, but standard textbooks and policy rhetoric bury them beneath confident claims of net benefits. Revisiting the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, critiques of consumer and social surplus, and later retractions by Hicks and Samuelson, we show that the intellectual case for free trade rests on indefensible ethical and empirical premises. A more rigorous and honest approach requires economists to restrict themselves to identifying effects on different groups, while leaving judgments about welfare and distribution to broader political debate.
Topic:: Economics, Free Trade, Trade, and Welfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

108. Refining the Strategy: The Economics of Lithium Value Addition in Ghana

Author:: Thomas Scurfield and David Sefa Adjei
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: Ghana’s plan to refine its lithium domestically should be based on economic feasibility, market outlook and a rigorous cost-benefit analysis. A Ghanaian refinery would currently face limited access to feedstock and high costs compared to global competitors, particularly in China. Excess refining capacity in China and uncertainty about the growth of lithium chemical demand outside China further compound these challenges. A refinery built in the next few years is unlikely to generate much benefit for Ghanaians. NRGI modeling suggests it could cost the government at least USD 500 million in lost revenue, as the refinery would need to purchase Ghana’s concentrate at below-market prices just to break even. It is also unlikely to create more than 200 direct jobs once operational, and the stimulus for other sectors is uncertain. In contrast, the opportunity costs as well as environmental and social harms could be considerable. The government would benefit from a mine-and-monitor approach instead: ensuring that the Ewoyaa mine starts as soon as possible while supporting further lithium exploration, monitoring the evolution of global conditions for lithium refining, and taking domestic steps to improve future refining prospects—such as developing a strategy for byproduct use. Transparency and citizen engagement in the decision-making process are essential to building trust, managing expectations, and fostering a strong investment climate for future lithium refining.
Topic:: Economics, Natural Resources, Mining, and Lithium
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

109. Obscurity By Design: Competing Priorities for America’s China Policy

Author:: Tanner Greer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Few notes of concord survive contact with Donald Trump. Trump’s election in 2016 upended settled assumptions; one by one he knocked down the pillars of consensus and convention that held up decades of American diplomacy. The strongest and most consequential of these pillars concerned China. For more than forty years, American diplomats and statesmen worked to integrate China into an American-led economic order. By doing so, they hoped to align Beijing’s behavior (and, if lucky, the entire Chinese political regime) with liberal norms. Their hopes proved in vain. China did not moderate or liberalize. The new president, rejecting both the means and ends of engagement, pushed for a less cataleptic strategy. That was five years ago. Those who see Trump as a champion of the new hawkish “bipartisan consensus on China” have been nonplussed by the first moves of his second administration. Trump invited Xi Jinping—but no other foreign leader—to attend his swearing-in. One of his first acts as president was an executive stay of the TikTok ban. Trump publicly browbeat a dozen countries with threats and blandishments in the week that followed—but not the People’s Republic of China. Contrary to expectation, Trump’s inaugural address barely glanced at China. It does not outline, or even hint at, what Trump’s approach to America’s greatest challenger might be. This obscurity is by design. Trump sees no advantage in giving advance notice. Quite the opposite: he clearly believes that the more inscrutable and erratic he seems, the better off the United States will be. This attitude was expressed neatly when the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal asked Trump about the approach he would take toward Taiwan if elected president. Trump replied that the Chinese would not dare attack Taiwan under his watch. After all, “[Xi Jinping] knows that I am f—ing crazy.” Like Richard Nixon before him, Trump is ready to play the lunatic.[1] If this is one reason Trump’s campaign never published or endorsed any detailed policy proposals regarding China, there are others. As one member of Trump’s transition team puts it, “Trump is a pragmatist, not an ideologue. He does not like tying his hands. He prefers to have strong personalities underneath him with conflicting views. He wants them to fight it out. He wants to pick the winner of each battle.” If this risks strategic incoherence, then so be it: “If you want to see what an ideologically unified administration looks like, look back at Bush and Cheney. That is the sort of disaster we want to avoid.”[2] This leadership style should be considered by any analyst who forecasts the new administration’s future. Trump positions himself as the kingmaker among competing centers of power. He encourages a certain level of disagreement in the ranks. This report provides a framework for thinking about these disagreements—especially in regard to the United States’ relationship with China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

110. Beyond Zambia's 2020 Sovereign Debt Default

Author:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: This paper provides an analysis of Zambia’s 2020 debt default, its economic aftermath, and the policy and institutional responses that have shaped the country’s recovery. The study situates the default within a broader global and domestic context of rising debt vulnerabilities, fiscal indiscipline, and external shocks, highlighting how years of high borrowing, exchange rate volatility, and weak public financial management culminated in the crisis. Following the default, Zambia faced acute liquidity challenges, rising inflation, and restricted access to international capital markets. In response, the government pursued fiscal consolidation and institutional reforms under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF), alongside a debt restructuring process guided by the G20 Common Framework. These measures sought to restore stability, rebuild confidence, and create space for inclusive growth while prioritising social spending and debt transparency. The study analyses the debt restructuring agreements with the Official Creditor Committee and Eurobond holders, noting the inclusion of state-contingent instruments, particularly the Value Recovery Instrument (VRI) embedded in the B-bond. This clause links Zambia’s future debt service obligations to improvements in its Composite Indicator (CI)—a metric combining the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), import coverage of reserves, and global growth trends. If Zambia’s CI exceeds a threshold of 2.69, the upside payment mechanism would be activated, triggering higher coupon rates and accelerated repayments. While this offers creditors a share in Zambia’s potential recovery, it also raises sustainability concerns, as it could increase the country’s debt service burden precisely when fiscal buffers remain fragile. It, however, does not provide any safeguards against adverse shocks or unexpected macroeconomic volatility, leaving the Government exposed to budgetary stress in the event of slower-than-expected growth or external disruptions. The paper, therefore, emphasises that durable debt sustainability depends on more than restructuring; it requires sustained reforms in domestic revenue mobilisation, prudent fiscal management, and institutional capacity building. It also calls for improvements to the Common Framework to enhance timeliness, predictability, and equitable burden-sharing among creditors, thereby reducing delays, improving fairness in repayment obligations, and providing more explicit guidance for future debt restructuring efforts.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Debt Restructuring, and Sovereign Default
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

111. Japan-US Trade Talks: Start by Expanding Beyond Trade

Author:: Mark Siegel
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Japan is facing a world suddenly beset by enormous uncertainties. Tokyo didn’t ask for this moment, but it should take the embedded opportunity seriously. This is not a time to patiently wait for a return to the old normal. The ancien régime is gone. Instead, Tokyo should put forward ideas that transcend previous institutional arrangements. While the coming period will be challenging, Japan may never have a better opportunity to press for systemic change. By most accounts, negotiations between Japan and the United States have started well. The US seems open to novel and tradition-breaking approaches, and wants to develop a framework agreement quickly. There is clearly goodwill between the two countries, and President Donald Trump’s participation in the opening dialogue was more than just symbolic. He appreciates the extraordinary importance of the bilateral relationship to both countries, and while the president takes issue with the merchandise trade imbalance, he and his team see value in creating win-win outcomes across a spectrum of subjects.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

112. Germany in Multi-Dimensional Change: Implications for Central Europe

Author:: EUROPEUM
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: On April 29th, the Brussels Office of EUROPEUM, representing the Think Visegrad Platform, hosted an expert roundtable discussion entitled ‘Germany in multi-dimensional change: implications for Central Europe.’ The event took place at The Library Ambiorix, Square Ambiorix 10, under the Chatham House Rule with a participation of 14 experts. The aim of the discussion was to explore Germany’s ongoing transformation amid overlapping economic, geopolitical, and structural challenges, and their implications for broader European politics.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

113. Sustainable cost of quinoa production in Bolivia: A landscape approach integrating the recovery of agricultural heritage (COSPH)

Author:: Javier Aliaga Lordemann and Adriana Caballero Caballero
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: This study analyzes the sustainable production cost, integrating the recovery of agricultural heritage (COSPH), for quinoa cultivation in the Bolivian High Plateau (Altiplano), seeking to answer: How much does it cost to make quinoa production sustainable over time in Bolivia? And, How does this change when considering agricultural heritage conservation? Specifically, the study evaluates how good agricultural practices (GAP) can mitigate climate change impacts and whether they are cost-effective, integrating the costs of agricultural heritage, which are particularly important for the quinoa real (royal quinoa) crop in Bolivia. Methodologically, the research combines a microeconomic model of imperfect competition calibrated for quinoa — capturing price differentiation based on sustainability and heritage conservation — with the NL-CROP model (Non-Linear Crop Optimization Model), which simulates non-linear interactions between climate, soil, and farming practices. Key findings show that GAP significantly reduce yield losses: under moderate climate conditions, productivity declines decrease from 5-7% to 1.8-2%, while in extreme events, losses drop from 16-30% to 2.5-6.2%, attributed to sustainable soil management. GAP remain viable in scenarios with up to two to three standard deviations, where profit margins cover additional costs. However, in severe crises (50% yield losses), negative margins (-4.7%) make agricultural insurance necessary (premiums of 7-10%), as well as tailored policies to balance climate adaptation with smallholders’ economic viability. When heritage conservation costs are included (COSPH), results show improved resilience (yield loss reduced to 10.5% under a moderate climate scenario) at a moderate additional cost (5.75% compared to 5%), suggesting that preserving agroecological heritage contributes to long-term sustainability. These findings highlight the strategic role of combining sustainable agriculture with the protection of cultural landscapes in vulnerable highland farming in Bolivia.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Heritage, Farming, Adaptation, Production, and Quinoa
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

114. Robotics and Artificial Intelligence: A New Economic Order

Author:: Lili Yan Ing and Gene Grossman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Various technological advancements have revolutionised how businesses operate and how people live and work. In recent years, significant advancements have occurred regarding industrial robotics and artificial intelligence (AI). The adoption of robotics and AI positively impacts productivity at both firm and national levels through increased precision and cost efficiency. While these technologies have the potential to substantially enhance productivity and to facilitate trade in goods and services, this paper also looks at the research on their impact on workers, wages, and economic welfare. Indeed, the extensive and uneven effects of robotics and AI on different skill sets have become a focus of economic research, which has explored how these technologies may yield outcomes that differ markedly from previous technological advancements.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

115. Grievance and Flawed Governance in Iran’s Baluchestan

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What’s new? As Iran struggles with geopolitical tensions and economic duress, its periphery regions are facing additional challenges. Baluchestan, the southern part of Sistan and Baluchestan province, has experienced recurrent unrest. Many residents feel the government discriminates against them as a religious and ethnic minority. Militancy persists. Environmental concerns compound the difficulties. Why does it matter? The central government’s repeated pledges to reduce poverty in Baluchestan through development and improved governance have been undermined by chronic mismanagement, lack of investment and suppression of dissent. Deepening socio-economic disparities, threats of militancy and growing environmental challenges are likely to bring greater strains. What should be done? Enhancing popular participation in local governance, making economic reforms and improving environmental stewardship are the best ways to address Baluchestan’s entrenched crisis. But meaningful progress will require considerable support from the central government, notwithstanding the other huge challenges it faces at home and abroad.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Baluchestan

116. Game Over? How the United States Could Have Won the Trade Wars

Author:: Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The Center for a New American Security's Energy, Economics, and Security (EES) Program designed and conducted an economic wargame to explore possible pathways to resolve the trade wars sparked by historic levels of U.S. tariff escalation. This trade wargame was designed to examine foreign government responses to U.S. tariffs, including whether they would retaliate, negotiate, and/or make concessions. After being punished by U.S. tariffs, would foreign governments have the appetite to engage in dealmaking with the United States and, if so, under what conditions? The trade wargame was conducted on March 17, 2025, two weeks before President Donald Trump made his real-world announcement of shockingly high tariff rates on a day he deemed “Liberation Day.”
Topic:: Economics, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

117. China in Iraq

Author:: Ingrid D'Hooghe, Vera Kranenburg, and Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: China’s main objective in Iraq is to ensure a reliable supply of oil that diversifies Beijing’s imports without making it dependent on Baghdad. China has a large economic footprint in Iraq, moderately strong diplomatic ties and is marginally relevant from a security perspective. Specifically, 50-67% of Iraq’s oil production comes from fields where Chinese companies are involved as investors, producers or in field servicing roles. Iraq’s political elites welcome Chinese engagement as its foreign policy is less intrusive and more respectful than the United States, its presence creates alternatives and its economic deals are profitable on Iraqi terms.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Oil, Bilateral Relations, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia

118. Incomplete Exit: Central and Eastern Europe’s Corporate Decoupling From Russia

Author:: Michal Wyrebkowski
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, companies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) initially were trailblazers in voluntarily withdrawing from Russia, effectively self-sanctioning through voluntary overcompliance with sanctions by leaving, even though operating in the country is still legal. At the same time, CEE countries have enabled sanctions-evasion networks. The historical economic relationship between CEE countries and Russia created the conditions for this paradox. Decades of relying on Russian energy sources masked an asymmetric interdependence: Russia’s military-industrial complex relied heavily on CEE countries for the machine tools, industrial components, and dual-use technologies essential to weapons production. When EU sanctions targeted these critical supply chains, the geographic proximity and established trade relationships that motivated voluntary exit by some companies also enabled systematic sanctions circumvention by others. The EU’s Russia sanctions since 2014 have struggled to match the complexity of the economic networks involved. Early sanctions focused on financial restrictions and high-profile sectors but failed to address the technical vulnerabilities that enable large-scale evasion. Even as restrictions expanded to cover dual-use goods and Russia’s “shadow fleet”, fundamental gaps in classification systems and enforcement mechanisms persisted. The responses of CEE companies have varied across sectors and countries. While investor and consumer pressure drove rapid voluntary exits from Russia in consumer-facing industries, industrial manufacturers found numerous ways to keep supplying it through third-country intermediaries. The behavior of energy companies has reflected the strategic priorities of CEE governments, with some achieving complete diversification from Russia while others reinforced existing dependencies. The variety of corporate responses mirrored the uneven development of national sanctions-enforcement capabilities, ranging from understaffed sanctions departments to insufficiently robust regulatory frameworks; for example, regarding criminalization of violations. The persistence of sanctions evasion through CEE countries reflects systemic failures in the EU’s enforcement architecture. Technical classification systems designed for traditional trade cannot adequately distinguish between civilian and military applications of modern dual-use technologies. Customs officials lack access to the information systems necessary to verify complex ownership structures and end-use destinations. Legal frameworks optimized for territorial jurisdiction are inadequate for regulating globalized supply chains where goods, payments, and corporate structures span multiple jurisdictions. Banking institutions operating across Central and Eastern Europe have become critical actors, with a small number of financial institutions handling substantial portions of Russia’s foreign currency transactions. Their continued operations highlight the limits of EU territorial sanctions, which is confirmed by the extent to which US extraterritorial enforcement has become necessary to police sanctions violations in Europe. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive reforms across multiple dimensions. Technical improvements must include supplementary classification systems that incorporate detailed specifications for dual-use goods, while institutional capacity-building demands substantial increases in staffing and expertise at the national and EU levels. Financial-sector monitoring needs real-time automated screening capabilities and dedicated compliance structures, while industrial-sector oversight requires specialized task forces with technical expertise in dual-use technologies.
Topic:: Economics, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: Russia and Eastern Europe

119. Navigating Global Value Chains and Economics in 2025: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing IndoPacific

Author:: Thanh Nha Nguyen
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Vietnam has emerged as an indispensable link in Indo-Pacific manufacturing networks. The country’s strategic advantage lies in its ability to adapt to shifting policies while mitigating risks from trade frictions. To sustain these gains, Vietnam must invest strategically in long-term competitiveness by upgrading workforce skills, improving infrastructure, and climbing the value chain through enhanced design and innovation capabilities. Vietnam’s adaptability has made it a prime beneficiary of the ongoing realignment in global supply chains driven by US trade policy changes. Tariffs on Chinese goods and broader efforts to "de-risk" supply lines have prompted many manufacturers to expand operations in Vietnam, sharply boosting exports and investment. By 2023, Vietnam had vaulted from the 12th- to 7th-largest exporter to the United States, as US imports from Vietnam rose by nearly 35 percent year-on-year. High-profile firms, including Samsung, Apple contractors, and major textile producers, have accelerated investments in Vietnam, solidifying its role as a preferred “China+1” manufacturing base.
Topic:: Economics, Manufacturing, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Vietnam, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

120. Tariff Wars: Strategies to Prevent Economic Marginalizationof Africa

Author:: Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The global economy is showing signs of structural slowdown. Global inflation is declining (from6.8% in 2023 to an expected 4.5% in 2025), and medium-term growth has plateaued around3.1%, a historically low level . Concurrently, « geoeconomic fragmentation » is intensifying—definedby the IMF as a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration. Protectionist measures aremultiplying at an unprecedented rate: nearly 3,000 new trade barriers were imposed in 2023, triplethe number in 2019. This surge in restrictions jeopardizes the economic architecture thatpreviously lifted 1.5 billion people out of poverty over recent decades . For low- and middle-incomeAfrican countries, these trends pose a dual challenge: firstly, their economies remain heavilyreliant on commodity prices (accounting for approximately 76% of exports in 2023) and strugglewith diversification; secondly, they face growing pressures on public finances due to mountingdebt. Specifically, external refinancing needs have tripled in a decade, reaching nearly USD 60 billion annually , while debt servicing now consumes over 12% of public revenue on average in sub-Saharan Africa. These constrained fiscal resources severely limit capacities for productiveinvestment and social policies. Thus, the critical question is: How can these vulnerable economiesmaintain access to international markets while fostering sustainable development?
Topic:: Economics, Tariffs, Inflation, Marginalization, Geoeconomics, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Africa

121. Addressing Policy Issues to Support Women’s EconomicEmpowerment in the Care Economy in Cameroon

Author:: Nkafu Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Cameroon is a middle-income country with a population of more than 29.4 million [1] . It ranked117 out of 146 in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index in 2021 [2], indicating asignificant gender gap. With an increasing global focus on women’s empowerment, Cameroonhas made strong policy commitments and developed sound policy measures to support Women’sEconomic Empowerment (WEE), backed by changes in macroeconomic frameworks to enable aninclusive approach to economic growth [3]. Nevertheless, gender equality cannot be taken forgranted and needs sustained attention in policy formulation and implementation. More womenhave been moving into paid work and increasingly leadership positions, yet globally, societalexpectations, employer policies, the legal environment and the availability of care continue to playan important role in the choice of educational tracks and career paths for these women. Womenremain disadvantaged at all levels of economic empowerment, especially in access to decentlivelihoods, resource ownership, infrastructure, and services to meet their productive, reproductive, and household needs. This article seeks to address various policy issues required tosupport women’s economic empowerment within the care economy in Cameroon. Thesubsequent sections consist of the Care Economy and Women’s Economic Empowerment, somechallenges and barriers women encounter in terms of economic empowerment, and policychallenges affecting WEE and the care economy. This is followed by a variety of policyrecommendations and future directions.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Empowerment, and Care Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

122. Labor in the Green and Digital Jobs of the Future: What Kind of ‘Future’ Will Arrive and Under Which Conditions?

Author:: Aslı Aydın
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Sustainable development goals, increasing environmental threats and global competition are forcing countries to take steps towards green transition and digital transformation based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. In this so-called “twin transformation”, low-carbon and smart technology-oriented jobs are expected to increase rapidly and future jobs are expected to be shaped around these new trends. In this policy brief, the potential opportunities and risks in the twin transformation, including the gender equality dimension, are examined together, and discussion topics that are expected to benefit policymaking are put forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, Sustainable Development, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

123. The Arctic as an Arena for Strategic Competition: Rivalry with Traditional and Irregular Levers of Power on NATO’s Northern Flank

Author:: Njord Wegge
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article investigates to what degree and through which fields and mechanisms strategic competition today plays out in the Arctic as well as how these questions align with international relations (IR) theory. Using rationalist approaches to the study of IR and the DIME model (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) to structure the empirical investigation, this article finds that the strategic competition matches perspectives found in realism as well as liberalism. The article points out how states develop strategies to maximize security, wealth, power, and prosperity at the cost of others, while at the same time also identifies empirical evidence supporting liberal perspectives that stresses how unintended consequences of competition can be harnessed through institutions and international law. The competitive environment experienced in today’s Arctic increasingly reflects an international society characterized by zero-sum thinking and a dynamic where the constraining role of institutions has diminished.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Economics, Strategic Competition, Military, and Information
Political Geography:: Arctic

124. Investing in Power: Unequal Exchange in Global Value Chains

Author:: James Heitz and William Milberg
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The question of how value is distributed within global value chains (GVCs) is one of the central questions in contemporary research on trade and development and an analysis of power is central to understanding this issue. This paper extends existing research on distribution within global value chains by focusing on the issue of power in both product markets and supplier markets. We present a formal model in which lead firms capture a larger share of value-added, either through higher mark-ups – monopoly power – or lower unit costs goods purchased from suppliers – monopsony power. Maintaining or expanding this market power involves costly investments in intangible assets, with the nature of that investment depending on the characteristics of the GVC. This framework provides new insights into the distributive dynamics of value chains, including reputation effects tied to corporate social responsibility. In this way, the paper presents an innovative way of theorizing international trade, inspired by the unequal exchange tradition, that can be extended in future research.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, Finance, Macroeconomics, Global Value Chains, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

125. Anchored Inflation With Differential Inflation Benchmarks

Author:: Thomas R. Michl
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper presents a model of inflation and distribution that features a structural difference between the wage Phillips curve and the price Phillips curve. The wage Phillips curve revolves around conditions in the labor market represented by the employment rate while the price Phillips curve revolves around conditions in the product market represented by capacity utilization. Differences in the relative bargaining power of workers and capitalist firms give rise to stabilizing real wage dynamics that lead to normal capacity utilization. Wage and price setting are each benchmarked to a different reference rate of price inflation, and both are anchored by the central bank’s inflation target. Price-setting by capitalist firms requires accurate projections (inflation expectations) of their competitors’ prices while the wage-setting reference rate reflects the delay in keeping up with past inflation that firms impose on workers, so that more anchoring represents the loss of working class bargaining power. Greater anchoring of the wage-setting reference rate relative to the price-setting rate makes real wages vulnerable to erosion from inflation. Capacity constraints also generate inflation that erodes wages. The model sheds some light on the recent post-Covid inflation through these channels.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Inflation, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

126. Inequality of Opportunity and Stratification Economics: Different Paths, Shared Concerns

Author:: Luis Monroy-Gómez-Franco
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper compares two approaches to the study of inequality that have recently consolidated as distinct fields: the economics of inequality of opportunity (IOp) and stratification economics (SE). IOp examines how circumstances beyond individual control shape inequalities, while SE emphasizes how institutions and group identities reproduce intergroup hierarchies. I argue that, despite distinct origins, the two frameworks can be viewed as complementary. To support this claim, I outline the main features of each theoretical framework and contrast them along several dimensions: their equalisandum, the role of social groups, primary unit of analysis, and their conception of how structural factors influence inequality. The analysis shows that the distance between the two approaches is less significant than often assumed. Their differences enhance their complementarity, positioning SE and IOp not as competitors but as mutually reinforcing frameworks for understanding inequality.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Equality of Opportunity, and Stratification Economics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

127. Mexico: A Pivotal State on the Global Stage

Author:: Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Biedsoe, and Michael Ferguson
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: In his 1867 Manifesto to the Nation, Benito Juárez famously stated: “Among individuals, as among nations, respect for the rights of others is peace.”1 Spoken by Mexico’s first indigenous president, Juárez’s quote demonstrates Mexico’s view of the global order—that countries should promote national sovereignty, security, and prosperity through collaboration and dialogue rather than through intervention. Mexico effectively operates with one foot in the door of the Global North, via its position in North America, and one foot in the door of the Global South, as one of the leading economies and cultural powerhouses of Latin America. This hybrid role, characterized by some as a “pivotal state,” has created both opportunities for leverage and areas of tension with other countries, particularly with regards to its close but complicated relationship with its northern neighbor.2 A key player and beneficiary of a global economy underpinned by a U.S.-led order, Mexico has found itself in a state of “autonomy within limits,” by which U.S. interests oftentimes circumscribe Mexico’s range of potential actions.3 Being the United States’ southern neighbor both grants Mexico unmatched economic benefits and presents it with a delicate balancing act: In pursuing autonomy within limits, Mexico must maximize its benefits from the Western-led order while asserting its sovereignty and reducing its dependence on the order’s biggest players, especially the United States. This tension influences Mexico’s policy positions as its presidents balance nationalistic rhetoric at home and trying to assuage U.S. concerns. Mexico’s balancing act also exacerbates divisions between the country’s pro–Global North elites and its disadvantaged populations who have not received the benefits of global economic integration, which has led to the success of the social welfare and populist-oriented Morena party. Mexico’s effort to maintain relations with its neighbor to the north consumes most of its foreign policy energy. But Mexico’s foreign policy DNA, often described as noninterventionism or the Estrada Doctrine (after Foreign Affairs Minister Genaro Estrada), can sometimes undercut its desire to play a leadership role on the global stage. Mexico firmly believes that nonintervention in the internal affairs of other countries can earn it a seat at the tables that matter, allowing it to negotiate or mediate conflicts. In practice, however, Mexico has demonstrated little global leadership of late, preferring to stay on the sidelines (and under President Lopez Obrador, to focus on his project of domestic transformation). Mexico’s ultimate goal is to exert full sovereignty over its domestic affairs; it has also used its political capital on the global stage to openly criticize the role of U.S. sanctions and containment policies against Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela for contributing the region’s security and migration crises. Further, Mexico does not see the world through the West’s post–Cold War lens, but rather as a group of politically equal states. China and Russia are treated as normal states in the international system the same way Algeria, Ethiopia, or Thailand might be.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

128. The United Arab Emirates: From Footnote to Sophisticated Global Partner

Author:: Jon B. Alterman
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin bounded down two dozen steps from his presidential plane on the morning of December 6, 2023. It must have felt good to be on the road again. An International Criminal Court indictment following his invasion of Ukraine had limited his international travel to former Soviet states, China, and Iran—but now, he seemed free. While world leaders were focused on the COP28 conference in Dubai, Putin—escorted by four Su-35 fighter jets—arrived in Abu Dhabi to a hero’s welcome. Lampposts were draped with Russian and Emirati flags. His limousine rolled past Bedouin guards and their camels lining the right side of the road, while mounted cavalry bearing Russian flags lined the left. The seven jets of the UAE Air Force’s acrobatic team streaked overhead, their colored smoke painting the Russian tricolor across the skies of the Emirati capital. The onward trip to Saudi Arabia for a few hours that evening almost felt like an anticlimax. For nearly two decades, the leadership of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has spared no effort in portraying itself as an essential Middle East partner to the United States, a beacon of moderation, and a catalyst for regional transformation. The push had its origins in crisis: two of the 9/11 hijackers were Emirati, leaving behind distrust among some in Congress and the American security establishment. The Emirati leadership confronted those perceptions head-on, skillfully courting U.S. government officials, senior military officers, and opinion leaders over the years. They judged that success in Washington was impossible if Israel and the UAE were at loggerheads, so outreach extended to the American Jewish community and included many years of quiet conversations with Israeli officials, culminating in U.S.-brokered diplomatic recognition in 2020. The Emirati goal with each successive U.S. president, it seemed, was to be considered America’s favorite Arab state. That effort was largely a success. For many in Washington and across the United States, the UAE became a model for the Middle East. And yet, as the Biden administration sought to rally the world after February 2022 to defend Ukraine and isolate Russia, the UAE remained circumspect. Distrustful of ideology in all its forms, the Emirati leadership viewed their country as a global entrepôt that had earned the right to flourish outside of political blocs. They saw no contradiction between being a close friend of the United States and entering into a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China in 2018. When Russian capital (and capitalists) sought a place to land after Ukraine-related sanctions slammed Russia in 2022, Emiratis welcomed both. Emirati officials touted their success in negotiating the exchange of hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war. They simultaneously deepened economic ties with both Ukraine and Russia. The UAE, they argued, was a more valuable friend when it maintained relationships with all. They would not choose—in part, because they judged they did not have to.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Global South, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Middle East and United Arab Emirates

129. India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass

Author:: Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Leading up to the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the Indian government put up billboards of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the city. By one count, there were almost 1,000 signs and banners in the 12-kilometer stretch between the airport and U.S. President Joe Biden’s hotel highlighting India’s accomplishments, aspirations, and vision under Modi’s leadership.1 When asked about the billboards, India’s G20 coordinator responded, “We haven’t done advertising. We’re doing branding.”2 But this branding exercise was not merely intended to highlight India’s leadership role in a major international summit; it also sought to assert India’s leadership among the G20 countries that are less wealthy but large and fast growing. Quite purposively, India gathered more than 100 countries for the Voice of the Global South Summit the week before the G20 summit, where Modi declared the importance for India of “voicing the concerns of the Global South on the agenda of a significant platform like G-20.”3 As the concept of a coalition of Global South countries has emerged in recent years, India’s efforts to bolster its own brand as the vanguard of the Global South have accelerated. But India’s response to a new international order reflects an old strategy. In March 1947, on the eve of Indian independence, India hosted the first Asian Relations Conference, bringing together a diverse range of countries, including China, Indonesia, Egypt and the Arab League, Australia, and many of the Soviet republics. India hosted the conference during a period of geopolitical transformation, as countries around the world grappled with the aftermath of World War II and an emerging process of decolonization. Jawaharlal Nehru, then vice president of the Viceroy’s Executive Council, described the moment of the conference as an “age of transition.” He argued, “One of the notable consequences of the European domination of Asia has been the isolation of the countries of Asia from one another,” but “as that domination goes, the walls that surrounded us fall down and we look at each other again and meet as old friends long parted.”4
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

130. Striving for Seriousness: Brazil’s Inclusion and Exclusion from the World Order

Author:: Ryan C. Berg, Henry Ziemer, and Luke Maloney
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Unlike other significant actors in the Global South, the genesis of Brazil’s grievances is not principally the country’s colonial past, but rather its presence at the founding of the rules-based international order. In other words, Brazil is motivated less by mistreatment than by a sense of not being given its due. In 1942, Brazil officially entered World War II on the side of the Allied powers, serving as the only independent country in South America to join the war effort. Perhaps most notably, Brazil deployed a significant expeditionary force to the Italian campaign: a force which numbered around 25,000 soldiers directly under U.S. command.1 However, Brazil’s expeditionary force deployed on the Italian front in September 1944 and left in May 1945—arriving too late and heading home too early. As a result, Brazil did not secure a significant role for itself in the formation of the postwar international order. This ran counter to Brazilian expectations—and, it should be noted, to American promises. At a meeting in February 1943 between Franklin D. Roosevelt and President Getúlio Vargas in Natal, the U.S. president told his Brazilian counterpart that he wanted him at his side during the postwar settlements to reorganize the world.2 Instead, Brazil did not play a large role in the postwar peace conference or in the founding of the Bretton Woods institutions. The spoils that were to accrue to Brazil from fighting on the right side failed to materialize.
Topic:: Economics, Strategic Competition, International Order, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

131. Strategic Ambiguity: Erdoğan’s Turkey in a Multipolar World

Author:: Jeffrey Mankoff and Max Bergmann
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland and Sweden made the historic decision to seek membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While Washington greeted this decision as an opportunity to strengthen the alliance and reinforce Russia’s strategic miscalculation in starting the war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw Finland’s and Sweden’s membership aspirations as an opportunity to seek concessions over arms sales, Turkey’s pursuit of membership in the European Union, and Stockholm’s perceived sympathy for Kurdish militants. After signing off on Finland’s membership in March 2023, Turkey only approved Swedish membership in January 2024 after Sweden approved new counterterrorism legislation—and after the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to sell Turkey modernized F-16 fighter jets. The saga over Finland and Sweden joining NATO demonstrates how Turkey straddles multiple worlds. It is at once part of the West—a NATO member and an EU candidate country—and part of the Middle East, an integral player across the region stretching from Libya to Afghanistan. It is also a member of the Global South that practices familiar hedging strategies toward the West, engages constructively with Russia and China, and does not hesitate to pursue foreign policy goals counter to the interests of its most important treaty ally, the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Strategic Competition, Multipolarity, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

132. Who owns a bank account in Africa?

Author:: Suhaylah Peeraullee, Dominique Dryding, and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: During his inaugural speech as chairperson of the African Union (AU) for 2022–2023, President Macky Sall of Senegal called for the creation of a pan-African credit-rating agency, arguing that low sovereign ratings discourage investment, raise borrowing costs, and undermin Africa’s competitiveness in global markets (Wanjohi, 2022). Similarly, at the 35th AU Summit in February 2022, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana criticised international credit-rating agencies for their “continuing consequential stranglehold” over African economies, which constrains governments’ access to development finance and increases the cost of capital (African Peer Review Mechanism, 2022, p. 4). These interventions reflect more than episodic political frustration. They point to a broader contest over how African economies are assessed and valued within the global financial system. Ideas about risk and creditworthiness are shaped by historical experience, structural constraints, and unequal power relations, and they in turn influence policy agendas and institutional reform (Jackson, 2021). From this perspective, African leaders’ critiques of the global credit-rating architecture can be read as an effort to assert greater agency over how African economic potential is defined and priced.
Topic:: Economics, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Africa

133. From aspiration to action: Barriers to youth empowerment in Africa

Author:: Rorisang Lekalake, Sophie Sunderland, and Komi Amewunou
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Africa has the world’s youngest population, with more than 400 million people between the ages of 15 and 35 – a number projected to rise above 830 million by 2050. This sustained youth bulge will keep the continent demographically young for decades, bringing significant challenges as well as opportunities, especially in areas such as jobs, education, and entrepreneurship (African Union, 2025). In this context, Africa’s development trajectory increasingly depends on its ability to participate in the global knowledge economy, where human capital (education and skills) drives productivity, innovation, and competitive advantage (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa & Oxford Economics Africa, 2023). Access to quality education is therefore a critical pathway to employment that provides purpose, dignity, and personal fulfilment – in addition to material security – for the continent’s youth.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Employment, Youth, and Jobs
Political Geography:: Africa

134. Should we be concerned about European competitiveness?

Author:: Olivier Perquel
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: At the end of the year 2025, all economic players agree that Europe's economic and financial situation is worrying, and that there are many issues at stake. However, it is no doubt worth trying to list them, by presenting a few figures, and highlighting some avenues for recovery, or a new start.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Finance, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Europe

135. Intellectual Property Is Economic and National Security

Author:: David Durand and Kyle Briggs
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Canada’s economic and national security depends on how the country manages its intellectual assets and intellectual property (IP). Looking at the concepts of economic warfare and economic security through an IP lens, this paper examines how attacks against IP can exploit fragmented policy regimes, putting economic security and sovereignty at risk. The authors make five recommendations to address these concerns: create an open-source intelligence agency, protect the outputs of Canadian research, strengthen foreign investment controls, invest in sovereign cloud compute and storage, and coordinate federal legal frameworks.
Topic:: Economics, National Security, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

136. Revisiting Alexis de Tocqueville's Civil Society Concept from a PoliticalEconomic Perspective

Author:: Ali Erdem Başçoban
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This study aims to re-examine the civil and political associations of Alexis de Tocqueville, who is seen as one of the founders of the concept of civil society in the modern sense. With a historical approach to Alexis de Tocqueville's conceptualization of civil society, it is claimed that there is a cleavage between his views on civil society then and civil society in the modern sense and by employing this historical perspective, the study aims to demonstrate the separation between political - civil associations and the state coincides with the distinction of the political and economic spheres. To make the paper's central argument clear, it is argued that the concept of civil society contributed to regulating the political sphere in the political-economic distinction created by capitalism. Through this regulation, it is claimed that the specific understanding of civil society was in harmony with the social conditions from which American capitalism emerged. The study argues that civil society cannot be seen as separate from the state, politics and economy by reading the civil society debates on the axis of Alexis de Tocqueville and capitalism.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Politics, Capitalism, and Alexis de Tocqueville
Political Geography:: Global Focus

137. Investment in the Heart of Europe: What Shapes FDI in the Visegrad Countries?

Author:: Andrzej Geise, Małgorzata Jaworek, and Magdalena Kuczmarska
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: This study investigates the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries, focusing on the changing relevance of cost-, market-, and institutional-related factors. The analysis employs a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model and panel Granger causality tests to examine both the long-run and short-run relationships between FDI and a set of macroeconomic, and institutionalrelated variables. The dataset covers the V4 countries over a time span between 1996 and 2023 and captures both permanent and transitory changes in determinants of FDI. The results show that in the long-run, average wage levels and government effectiveness are significant structural determinants, highlighting the importance of institutional quality and labour costs in FDI location decisions. In the short term, FDI inwards are mainly influenced by GDP growth, R&D expenditure, trade openness, and inflation dynamics. The results indicating the significance of factors determining FDI in the Visegrad Group countries may be of particular importance for policymakers seeking to enhance investment attractiveness in a globally unstable economic environment.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Visegrad Group
Political Geography:: Europe

138. The Third World Imperative: How Brazil-China Relations Emerge from the Aftershock of Richard Nixon’s Latin American Foreign Policy

Author:: Pablo Muñoz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the emergence of Brazil-China relations in the context of Richard Nixon’s foreign policy toward Latin America. It examines how American perceptions of Brazil as a potential competitor, and the geopolitical economic maneuvers of the Nixon administration influenced Brazil’s foreign policy decisions. The article highlights Brazil’s growing nationalism and its engagement with the Third World, including economic interactions with the Soviet Union and the eventual establishment of relations with mainland China. Ultimately, it argues that U.S. foreign policy played a significant role in shaping Brazil’s understanding of its Third World imperative, paving the way for closer relations with China that continue to this day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Nationalism, Third World, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

139. Fault, Responsibility, and Justice: Ethical Solutions to Economic Losses in the Energy Transition

Author:: Preston Ferraiuolo, Mikhail Perminov, Kate Voltz, and Joyce Yang
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: The final brief widens the lens on climate policy by examining the ethical obligations owed to workers and communities disproportionately harmed by decarbonization. Drawing on distributive, recognition, and procedural justice, the authors develop a roadmap for equitable climate action that strengthens democratic legitimacy rather than eroding it.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Democracy, Ethics, Legitimacy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

140. Kenya’s Inequality Crisis: The great economic divide

Author:: Anthony Kamande and Beverly Musili
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Status of Inequality in Kenya 2025 report provides a comprehensive analysis of inequality trends in income, wealth, and access to essential public services such as health and education. It highlights how deepening disparities in public service delivery continue to shape social and economic outcomes and offers bold policy recommendations to advance equality and inclusive growth. This report comes at a critical time, as Kenya grapples with growing economic pressures, rising living costs, and fiscal constraints that affect the provision of quality public services. The findings seek to inform ongoing national debates on economic inequality, tax reform, public finance management, and social protection; key levers for addressing inequality and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and Vision 2030.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Public Service, Public Finance, Economic Inclusion, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

141. Optimizing Azerbaijan’s CICA Chairmanship

Author:: Madina Alasgarova, Aysel Bayramova, Fatima Huseynli, Ashley Nhabete, and Goncha Salahova
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The Conference on Interaction and Confidence‑Building Measures in Asia (CICA) is a multinational and multilateral platform designed to enhance dialogue and foster cooperation among its 28 member states, including Azerbaijan. With a mission to improve security, stability, and confidence‑building in the region, CICA stands out as a unique format that focuses exclusively on security issues, distinct from frameworks like the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is, in fact, the most inclusive pan‑Asian security forum. Currently, the established Western‑centric security formats are experiencing erosion and legitimacy crises that undermine their ability to address the security concerns of Eurasia in general and the Silk Road region in particular. Consequently, CICA’s role as an exclusively non‑Western security platform is gaining prominence across Asia. Azerbaijan’s 2024‑ 2026 CICA chairmanship presents a strategic opportunity to advance regional and pan‑Asian security cooperation—or at least serve as a more effective platform for dialogue, free from the presence of outsiders. Drawing on its successful experience in advancing efforts to institutionalize the Non‑Aligned Movement (NAM), Azerbaijan, with its growing influence in multilateral formats, is well‑positioned to advance the process to transform CICA from a discussion format into a more structured and impactful platform—that is to say, into a fully‑fledged intergovernmental organization. To that end, this paper offers concrete and actionable policy proposals to ensure that Azerbaijan’s chairmanship is productive and beneficial for its member states. None are game‑changing, but taken as a whole, we believe they can help move the needle noticeably forward. Our approach is informed by a conviction that CICA can support Azerbaijan in navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, promoting security in Asia through various confidence‑building measures (CBMs), and fostering new partnerships across the continent. Parts of this paper should thus also be understood as contributing to the discourse on the expanding role of the non‑Western regional multilateral frameworks in a changing and highly fragmented international order.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, International Order, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:: Caucasus and Azerbaijan

142. Two decades of Chinese industry subsidies

Author:: Shuhui Xiang, Xinran Yin, and Yuan Zi
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: This paper constructs a new database based on China's WTO subsidy notifications (2001–2022) and provides the first systematic overview of China's industrial subsidies over the past two decades. Five findings emerge. First, subsidies expanded rapidly, but direct fiscal support stabilized around 0.8 percent of GDP after 2008. Second, China has employed more subsidies than its income level would suggest, with striking policy persistence. Third, subsidies and tax incentives for FDI have declined, while those targeting specific industries and promoting innovation have grown. Fourth, wealthier and more trade-oriented provinces provide more local subsidies. Finally, subsidies are concentrated in a few sectors, and measures based on counts versus values reveal different patterns. These patterns reveal how China's subsidy strategy has evolved, offering insights to state-led development in the 21st century.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Innovation, WTO, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: China and Asia

143. Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus

Author:: Artyom Shraibman
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy on Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, an inexorably deeper dependence on Moscow, and the glaring absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decisionmaking. This paper proposes a different paradigm for approaching the issue. Instead of passively reacting to Minsk’s actions, the West should broaden its planning horizon and create more specific incentives for Belarus to follow a different trajectory in the future. The overriding goal of a more proactive Western strategy should be the eventual emergence of a democratic Belarus that is no longer fully dominated by Moscow in the military and political realms. Such an ambitious goal would have tangible and lasting benefits for the new European security landscape amid the prospect of a long war in Ukraine. Skepticism in Western policy circles about the viability of such a scenario is entirely understandable. Yet it is not entirely clear whether Western policymakers have registered the significant differences between Russia and Belarus at the societal level and divergent strategic interests of the Russian and Belarusian regimes. At the same time, it is essential for Western policymakers to keep their expectations in check and to avoid an overestimation of their capabilities. The Belarusian crisis cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future by Western efforts alone. Moreover, there should be no illusions about the fact that Belarus, much like Ukraine, holds a special place in the worldview of the Russian ruling elite and President Vladimir Putin personally. The Kremlin’s long-standing obsession with keeping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) away from Russia’s borders plays into the same attachment to keeping the Belarusian regime in as tight an embrace as possible. Therefore, until Moscow either changes its foreign policy priorities under a new leadership or simply becomes unable to keep Minsk under its control, it would be naïve to expect that the Russian leadership will simply offer any Belarusian government greater leeway to shift its geopolitical orientation. At the same time, it is conceivable that a qualitative increase in military assistance to Ukraine and a more effective economic pressure campaign against Russia could disrupt Belarus’s trajectory and make Minsk more amenable to the incentives that the West can already offer. But an overnight breakthrough seems highly unlikely. This paper, therefore, focuses on more realistic recommendations with longer-term effects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

144. Farmer Protests Across Europe

Author:: Nichita Gurcov, Nicola Audibert, and Cristian Vlas
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Farmer demands for more economic protection and less regulation have led to a surge in protests across Europe in the past thre emonths, and especially in the past three weeks. It is the largest wave since the Dutch farmers' protests against their government's plan to cut nitrogen pollution in July 2022.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Protests, Political Movements, and Farmers
Political Geography:: Europe

145. What works for working couples? Work arrangements, maternal labour supply, and the division of home production

Author:: Ludovica Ciasullo and Martina Uccioli
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We document how a change to work arrangements reduces the child penalty in labor supply for women, and that the consequent more equal distribution of household income does not translate into a more equal division of home production between mothers and fathers. The Australian 2009 Fair Work Act explicitly entitled parents of young children to request a (reasonable) change in work arrangements. Leveraging variation in the timing of the law, timing of childbirth, and the bite of the law across different occupations and industries, we establish three main results. First, the Fair Work Act was used by new mothers to reduce their weekly working hours without renouncing their permanent contract, hence maintaining a regular schedule. Second, with this work arrangement, working mothers’ child penalty declined from a 47 percent drop in hours worked to a 38 percent drop. Third, while this implies a significant shift towards equality in the female- and male-shares of household income, we do not observe any changes in the female (disproportionate) share of home production.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Work, and Home Production
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

146. Sanctions have become a tool of first resort. But enforcement needs upgraded and updated resources.

Author:: David Mortlock and Alex Zerden
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Enforcement remains a critical but underresourced element of economic sanctions. The US Congress and the Department of the Treasury should consider updates to its resources, public guidance, and policies to ensure the efficacy of sanctions enforcement as the use of the sanctions policy tool continues to expand. Economic sanctions are often described as the foreign policy tool of first resort. The Department of the Treasury acknowledged this reality in its “2021 Sanctions Review.” Through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Treasury Department administers thirty-eight different, albeit overlapping, economic sanctions programs. With only a few hundred employees, OFAC has a nearly unparalleled national security mandate with oversight of the US economy and many other facets of global economic activities. OFAC develops policies for the use of sanctions, designates sanctions targets like individuals, entities, and jurisdictions, engages with the private sector to promote compliance, and civilly enforces apparent violations by US persons and others. This latter enforcement role represents a critical but often overlooked capability. For instance, the same “2021 Sanctions Review” does not even mention the enforcement function in its assessment. (However, it did seek to ensure that sanctions are “enforceable” in the context of sanctions implementation.) Resource constraints, a lack of attention, and the prioritization of policy crises hamper this enforcement function. In 2023, OFAC only undertook seventeen public enforcement actions, including its largest settlement to date with Binance, a global cryptocurrency exchange. For perspective, the Department of Justice terminated 63,419 civil cases in fiscal year 2022, according to the most recent public data. As the wider interagency continues to rely on sanctions as a critical tool and the United States seeks to expand partner sanctions capacity, US policymakers must fully support the sanctions enforcement function. Strengthening the internal controls for OFAC enforcement improves the rule of law through improved due process and protects OFAC from legal challenges that could existentially undermine its national security mission. OFAC enforcement urgently requires increased budgetary resources and an upskilled workforce from Congress, stronger internal procedures to avoid litigation risks, improved public guidance, and revised enforcement guidelines to promote consistency and improve compliance by industry.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, Transparency, and Enforcement
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

147. The EU Tobacco Tax Structure: Impact on Prices, Revenues, and Smoking Patterns

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Multilateral organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF have made the argument that specific excise taxes for cigarette taxation can provide significant benefits over ad valorem excise taxes. Chief among the benefits they identify are: more stable and predictable government excise tax receipts; a lower administrative burden for tax management and collection; and internalising the externalities produced by cigarette consumption. Across the EU, Member States have been restructuring their excise tax systems to create an increasingly prominent role for specific excise taxes. Between 2010 and 2023, authorities in the EU opted to rebalance towards specific excise and away from ad valorem excise, with the average ad valorem rate across Member States falling from 36.7% to 27.0% of retail selling price (RSP). As a result, in this period the average specific excise burden across the EU increased from 30.9% to 44.5% of total taxation. However, this shift has not been uniform across Member States and the approach to cigarette taxation has diverged. Countries like Denmark and Sweden have moved to an almost total reliance on specific excise taxes. Meanwhile in some Member States such as Italy and Spain, the share of specific excise tax in total taxation has remained very low. In this study, we examine the experience of eight EU Member States that have all taken differing approaches to cigarette excise policy in recent years. In four countries that have rebalanced to achieve a higher proportional use of specific excise taxes since 2010, we found excise tax receipts to have remained stable or increased, despite flat or falling rates of legal consumption. In four countries that have not significantly rebalanced towards specific excise taxes, the results were more mixed. Italy and Spain, notably, have seen a decline in their cigarette excise tax receipts over the period, despite below-average declines in cigarette consumption. Ad valorem-based excise tax systems do not provide as strong an incentive for manufacturers to raise prices as a specific excise-based system would. In addition, ad valorem dominated excise tax systems can encourage downward substitution from consumers for cheaper alternatives, exacerbating the decline in excise tax receipts.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Tax Systems, Tobacco, Price, and Revenue
Political Geography:: Europe

148. The Environmental Impact of Digital Over Cash Payments in Europe

Author:: Jan Sun, Hannah Zick, and Johanna Neuhoff
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: On behalf of the European Digital Payment Industry Alliance (EDPIA), our report on “The Environmental Impact of Digital over Cash Payments in Europe” seeks to evaluate carbon emissions across payment systems at point of sales. Businesses and governments are becoming more and more focused on mitigating the effects of climate change through processes and policies, and the payment sector is no exception. As digital payments become more prevalent—with the number of non-cash payments doubling from 21% in 2016 to 41% in 2022 in the euro-area alone according to the European Central Bank—there has been a growing need to understand the environmental effects of these shifting preferences. Although some evidence indicates that digital payments have a smaller environmental footprint than cash payments, there has not been a comparative lifecycle assessment done between the two of them. In addition, given large differences across geographies, the actual impacts of payment methods at points of sales (POS) can differ widely from country to country. To examine this issue, this study utilises a Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) following the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) guidelines. A method Oxford Economics has added to its toolkit, the LCA is a holistic approach that appraises environmental impacts across stages of a product lifecycle on a variety of categories. Which, in this case, includes a total of different 18 categories including for example, global warming potential, mineral resource scarcity, and ionizing radiation. This cradle-to-grave approach is used for three purposes: Firstly, to consider the separate processes of cash and non-cash payments in order to isolate the environmental “hotspots” and their respective impacts. Secondly, to understand the processes in three countries with different rates of payment adoption—Italy, Germany, and Finland—for comprehensive results. Thirdly, to compare the environmental impact of cash and non-cash payments at point of sales in the different impact categories.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, Radiation, and Digital Payments
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, Germany, and Italy

149. Decoding China’s Technology and Industrial Policy: Seven Terms You Need to Know

Author:: Barry Naughton, Siwen Xiao, and Yaosheng Xu
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: China’s technology and industrial policy programs have grown in scope and intensity since 2020, but the vocabulary used to describe them is vague and often misleading. This policy brief decodes seven essential terms and shows that they have concrete and complementary meanings. When understood in concert, they reveal the establishment of a large-scale, government-directed program of mission-oriented research, development, and application. Together these terms outline a substantial expansion of the Chinese government’s direct role in organizing economic activity, and hint at some of the limits of that expansion.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Research and Development, and Terminology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

150. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:: Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

151. Navigating the treacherous political economy of structural reform

Author:: Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, and Chris Papageorgiou
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We examine the economic and electoral effects of liberalisation measures using newly-constructed databases on structural economic reforms and the outcome of democratic elections since the 1970s. The data shows a remarkable slowdown in the pace of liberalisation in both advanced and emerging market and developing countries since the 1990s. A debate has emerged about the causes of this slowdown, including the possibility that reforms do not deliver the economic benefits that advocates, including the multilateral financial institutions, trumpeted. Some have pointed to the fact that the current and previous United States administrations have abandoned neoliberal policies in favour of more government intervention in the economy, and the effect has been globally contagious. Our empirical analysis suggests that the growth dividend from liberalisation is economically and statistically significant, but it emerges only slowly over time. Because of this delay, liberalising reforms are costly to democratic incumbents when they are implemented close to elections. Reforms may generate immediate concentrated losses, which elicit an electoral backlash, especially when the aggregate gains are only visible several years after the reform’s implementation. The electoral penalty is also sensitive to overall business-cycle conditions, being much larger when an economy is in recession. Electoral effects also differ depending on the type of reform. Notably, financial reforms generate more perceptible growth-equity trade-offs than real-economy reforms, especially when implemented during weak economic conditions. The political economy of reform is treacherous. To avoid adverse electoral effects, timing reform early in the electoral term and when business-cycle conditions are favourable is critical. So too is avoiding reforms that generate large distributional costs in the face of small aggregate gains (an adverse growth-equity trade-off). Focusing on these considerations is critical to reinvigorate support for structural reform.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Reform, Elections, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

152. Who Governs? 50 years since the February 1974 election

Author:: Robert Saunders
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: 50 years ago this month, Prime Minister Edward Heath called a general election. With severe economic problems including the quadrupling of oil prices, a particularly fierce miners’ strike and the introduction of a three-day week, Heath addressed the nation, telling the electorate that they had to choose between ‘a strong Government which has clear authority for the future to take decisions which will be needed’ and one that ‘abandons the struggle against rising prices under pressure from one particularly powerful group of workers’. The result was a monumental moment in British political history – the first hung parliament since 1929 – and, arguably, as Alan Bancroft suggests, consigned the ‘post-war settlement’ to the ‘intensive care unit, ultimately leading to its demise in 1979’. To mark this significant anniversary, the Edward Heath Academic Forum – a new academic network to encourage study of the politics of the 1970s, and Heath’s contribution to British, European, and global politics – held its first public event at Queen Mary University of London. Dr Robert Saunders as well as Lord Butler (Private Secretary to the Prime Minister, 1972-74) and Lord McNally (Political Advisor to James Callaghan, 1974-76, and Head of Political Office at 10 Downing Street, 1976-79) revisit the campaign, the Conservatives’ struggle to sustain the focus on ‘Who Governs?’, Heath’s efforts to form a coalition with the Liberals, and the eventual formation of a minority Labour government.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, Domestic Politics, Prime Minister, and Edward Heath
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and North America

153. Nobody wins unless everybody wins: The Coles review into the sustainment of Australia’s Collins-class submarines

Author:: Andrew Davies
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In 2003, Australia became the proud owner of the last of six new-build Collins-class submarines. Less than a decade later, the fleet was in a poor state of repair, and at times only one or two of the boats were available to the Royal Australian Navy. This account by Andrew Davies explains how the situation was remediated by bringing in a team of highly experienced naval professionals to take an uncompromising look at the arrangements in place to manage a vital national defence asset. Despite a public perception that the submarines were inherently defective, the problems were in fact almost entirely due to dysfunctional and often rancorous organisational dynamics between the key players. In the space of just a few years, and with remarkably little required in the way of additional funding, the situation took a dramatic turn for the better. As with earlier ASPI case studies on defence projects, Nobody wins unless everybody wins is designed to help those in Defence, industry and parliament and other interested observers to better understand the complexities of the business, all with the aim of improving how Australia equips and sustains its defence force.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Defense Industry, and Submarines
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

154. The cost of Defence: ASPI Defence budget brief 2024-2025

Author:: Bec Shrimpton
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Australia needs to spend more on defence—and it needs to do so immediately. The strategic imperative has been firmly established in the government’s own major defence documents. The Albanese government and the Coalition opposition agree that we are in the gravest geopolitical period in generations and this is only going to intensify. But as the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s latest Cost of Defence report finds, the rhetorical urgency is not being matched by action in the form of defence investment. The May budget is the latest demonstration of this mismatch, lacking spending for swift increases in capabilities that the Australian Defence Force would need if our region were to deteriorate quickly. In particular, this year’s budget priorities are not directed towards strengthening the Australian Defence Force’s ability to fight in the next decade. This is not doom-mongering; the government has acknowledged that the warning time before any conflict, which had long been set at 10 years, has shrunk to effectively zero time. We have war in Ukraine and the Middle East, aggression and increasingly dangerous and unprofessional behaviour from China causing instability and confrontation in the South China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait, erosions of the rule of law and revisionist agendas from authoritarians. Instability is heightened by foreign interference, economic coercion and artificial intelligence-enabled dangers such as cyber attacks and disinformation. If war were to break out at any time in the next 10 years, our military would essentially fight with the force it has today. Based on current resourcing, nothing significant will change over the decade. Most of the major new capabilities in the government’s defence investment blueprint are two decades away from being fully fielded. That blueprint does contain some shorter-term enhancements, but these will not be fielded until the 2030s. The welcome $5.7 billion in new defence spending over the four-year forward estimates period is devoted to just three priorities: the AUKUS submarines, the next fleet of surface warships and investment in long-range strike, targeting and autonomous systems. But two thirds of this funding doesn’t arrive until 2027-28. The relatively impressive longer term plan leaves us vulnerable in the immediate period ahead. More money immediately is not a silver bullet, and ambition must be balanced with how much Defence can actually spend each year. But the nation’s security requires a two-pronged strategy of enhancing our existing force to meet threats within the decade while investing in long term capabilities. Other countries are furiously pursuing new capabilities that can be put into action quickly—such as creating masses of small drones and prototyping and developing new technologies. We talk about technology and asymmetric advantage—playing to your strengths and finding effective means to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses–yet we lack a credible pathway to bring them into operation to bolster the force we have today. Over the longer term, the picture starts gradually to improve. The $50 billion in additional spending over the next decade is an important commitment, even if far away. The plan for a complete recapitalisation of the surface combatant fleet will eventually give us the biggest and most capable navy Australia has had since World War Two. But, so far, we are failing to grasp the opportunity to link our traditional large platforms such as submarines and warships to more modern developments in warfare—drones and various small uncrewed and smart capabilities. AI, robotics, electronic warfare and space capabilities remain aspirational, without any pathway for inclusion and integration into a truly focused force capable of meaningful deterrence and warfighting. That is why it is so important to realise AUKUS Pillar II, which is dealing with these capabilities. It’s easy to criticise; harder to do. All governments are grappling with tight budgets amid competing demands and the unremitting expectations of voters and taxpayers. As a nation, we need to accept the need for higher defence spending. Hoping that conflict won’t come is not a viable strategy. If we are prepared for war, we have a better chance of deterring and hence averting it. Europe is living that lesson now, having put all hope in the judgment that global trade and economic entanglement would bring security. Now it is clear that military investment is imperative to deter war or best prepare nations for it. The government has a vital responsibility to speak plainly to the nation about the geopolitical risks and the possibility of conflict. We need to grasp the challenge that is in front of us today, not in three or five years’ time. Otherwise, we risk delivering on Macarthur’s famous two word warning: “The history of failure in war can almost always be summed up in two words: “Too late.” Too late in comprehending the deadly enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.” Why take the risk of only acting after a crisis and saying better late than never? The world in turmoil demands we act in real time to both deter crises and be best prepared for them.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Budget, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

155. Good Intentions, Better Outcomes: Shifting the Debate About Social Protection and Informality

Author:: James Heintz and Jayati Ghosh
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The introduction of social protections for individuals engaged in paid employment frequently comes up against arguments that such measures would have an adverse impact on employment, reduce access to formal jobs, and result in greater informality. The argument is that, while well intentioned, such policies distort labor markets and generate significant economic costs that either leave some workers worse off than they would have been in the absence of such protection, or the interventions become a drag on overall economic performance, encumbering the process of development. In what follows we critically evaluate such arguments and provide responses to the claim that social protections lead to higher informality. We also consider the challenges involved in providing social protection to different types of workers, including not only those employed by others but specifically the self-employed and unpaid workers.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

156. India’s Service Sector: New Areas for Future Cooperation

Author:: Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Given the growing significance of the Indo-Pacific region, the strategic importance of India is on the rise. With its considerable population and economic potential, India offers many opportunities for cooperation in various sectors. However, past cooperation between Korea and India has focused on the manufacturing sector. In order to consolidate economic ties be-tween Korea and India and to access the growing Indian market, cooperation in various industries, including services, is necessary. In this article, we will explore key aspects of India’s service industry and policy implications for better cooperation between two countries.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

157. Korea-India Economic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Era

Author:: Jeong Gon Kim, Kyunghoon Kim, Jonghun Pek, Yoo Jin Nam, and Wondeuk Cho
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: With the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the spotlight, India's strategic value has come to the fore. The Korean government has included cooperation with India as a key task under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. This article aims to contribute to the establishment of economic cooperation with India from a medium- to long-term strategic perspective. Accordingly, this article analyzes the strategic changes of major countries towards India and India's response strategies, and the emerging agendas of economic cooperation between India and major countries. Lastly, this article proposes policy directions and key agendas for Korea-India economic cooperation.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: India, Asia, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

158. Japan’s Supply Chain Policy and its Implications for South Korea

Author:: Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This WEB paper analyzed Japan's supply chain policy in line with the implementation of Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act in May 2022, and presented policy implications such as supply chain cooperation between Korea and Japan. First, this paper analyzed the US-led reorganization of the global supply chain and the Japanese government's response to it. In particular, the Japanese government's economic security policy was evaluated from the perspective of how Japan approaches the US-led the global supply chain reorganization. Second, the Japanese government's supply chain policy was analyzed, focusing on the supply chain policy for some critical materials under the Economic Security Promotion Act. Finally, this paper proposed ways for Korea and Japan to cooperate in reshaping the global supply chain led by the United States.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

159. Korea’s Global Value Chain Strategies amid Rising Trade Disputes

Author:: Won Seok Choi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This article explores the challenges and transformations in global economic governance, particularly in the context of China's rise, widening trade disputes, and the retreat of globalization. It discusses the reorganization of global supply chains and their implications for Korea, focusing on the policies of key countries like the United States, the European Union (EU), and China towards stabilizing and reorganizing supply chains, with an emphasis on transitioning to a green industrial structure and improving domestic industrial competitiveness, particularly in the semiconductor and secondary battery industries. Accordingly, this article analyzes Korea's dependency on imports for semiconductors and secondary batteries, noting significant increases in imports and the diversification of import sources. The analysis reveals Korea's high import dependence on specific countries for critical goods and materials, emphasizing the importance of supply chain cooperation with countries that have global export competitiveness.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Governance, Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

160. North Korea’s 2023 Trade with China: Analysis and Forecasts

Author:: Jangho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This article analyzes North Korea-China trade trends and statistics in 2023 to evaluate the extent of North Korea's trade normalization and its performance. North Korea's trade with China increased by more than 120% compared to the previous year as the country declared a COVID-19 Endemic and gradually eased border controls, but did not recover to 2018-19 levels, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19. Imports to China recorded 2.00 billion, 124.1% higher than the 0.89 billion in 2022. North Korea's imports from China in 2023 are estimated to be the maximum achievable given the lack of a full resumption of over-land trade. However, as the negative impact of UN sanctions on the North Korean economy is ongoing, making it difficult to normalize industrial production. North Korea mainly imported raw materials for processing trade (textile and garment raw materials), staple foods (rice and sugar), agricultural materials (fertilizer), and construction materials from China in 2023. North Korea’s exports to China stood at 0.29 billion, up 118.4% from 0.13 billion in 2023. Exports remain at the 16.9% of the level before the tightening of UN sanctions on North Korea, as the country has failed to diversify its products and expand exports of major export items. Exports were highly dependent on specific products, wigs and false eyelashes, a labor-intensive industry, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. In spite of increasing wigs export, North Korea failed to further expand its amount and diversify the export items in the second half of the year. According to the analysis of trade statistics, the main goals of North Korea's 2023 US foreign economic policy are: (1) resuming smuggling trade in textiles and clothing, (2) building irrigation canals in preparation for summer floods, (3) implementing state-led grain distribution, (4) building living houses in a rural area, and (5) increasing metal production for Russian arms exports. Despite the increase in imports from China in the transition to the coronavirus pandemic, it is difficult to say that it has yet led to the recovery of industrial production and economic development. The future of North Korea's trade with the rest of the world in 2024 will be determined by whether North Korea fully opens its borders and improves its relations with China. In 2024, both North Korea's exports and imports are expected to be slightly higher than in 2023. North Korea's exports are unlikely to increase significantly, as North Korea-Russia military cooperation is expected to continue and China is likely to maintain its checks on the growing Sino-Russian alignment. Increased imports will lead to a larger trade deficit, but it will be within North Korea's ability to manage for one to two years.
Topic:: Economics, Border Control, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

161. Armenia’s Critical Economic Reliance on Russia: Can the West Eliminate It?

Author:: Orkhan Baghirov
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Lately one of the most discussed political issues related to the South Caucasus region is Armenia’s attempt to incline towards the West by trying to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence. This has been manifested both geopolitically and geoeconomically. However, Armenia’s potential strategic shift away from its centuries-old political alignment with Russia raises questions about the future of the overall relationship between the two countries. A key concern revolves around the challenges Armenia may face due to its significant economic dependence on Russia. For such a shift to occur successfully, Armenia would have to not only strengthen its political and security ties with the West, but also develop the ability to replace Russia with Western partners in key economic sectors. Thus, the primary objective of the essay is to assess the degree to which Armenia could economically substitute Russia with the West, determining the feasibility of this transition. To achieve this, we should identify the critical level of Armenia’s reliance on Russia across diverse economic sectors and assess the extent to which the West can mitigate this dependency in anything resembling a realistic timeframe, without, that is, critically endangering Armenia’s economic wellbeing.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Armenia, and South Caucasus

162. A Subdued Environment and Missed Opportunities

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Chinese diplomacy toward the Korean Peninsula in late 2023 sputtered forward, driven more by a calendar of bilateral anniversaries with North Korea and multilateral gatherings involving South Korea than any sense of strategic purpose. Both relationships seemed preoccupied with off-stage developments such as the September summit between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin and the momentum of US-Japan-South Korea trilateral relations, rather than any inherent dynamism of their own. Still, regular Sino-North Korean bilateral exchanges ahead of the 75th anniversary of the bilateral relationship and Sino-South Korean bilateral economic dialogues provide opportunities to overcome resistance and sustain progress in the face of deepening major power rivalries. Senior-level dialogues between China and North Korea occurred on North Korea’s 75th founding anniversary in September, with the visit of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong to Pyongyang, a visit that occurred against the backdrop of the second US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group meeting, North Korea’s first successful indigenous satellite launch, and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong Ho’s visit to Beijing. Meanwhile, ministerial and working-level economic dialogues on issues such as supply-chain stability, export controls, and trade facilitation continued between China and South Korea, punctuated by a notable bilateral exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in late September on the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou. But these exchanges did not generate the traction necessary for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to have substantive bilateral meetings with President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco in November. Bilateral and trilateral foreign ministerial meetings in Busan between South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and counterparts Wang Yi and Kamikawa Yoko—the first in four years—failed to generate sufficient momentum to set a date for the resumption of China-Japan-South Korea summitry. Instead, the resumption of China-South Korea or China-Japan-South Korea summitry will depend on developments in 2024.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Dialogue, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and North Korea

163. Beijing Moderates Criticisms Selectively

Author:: Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Beijing in this reporting period moderated often shrill rhetoric of the past two years criticizing Joseph Biden administration advances and regional governments cooperating with the US. Emphasizing China’s positive contributions to regional economic growth, Beijing stressed its flexibility, said to be different from Washington in not pressing regional states to choose between the US and China, even as it demonstrated ambitions to develop a new regional and global order favorable to itself. Nevertheless, glaring exceptions included egregious pressures to compel deference to China’s claims in the South China Sea, harsh criticism of the Philippines and Japan cooperating closely with the United States, as well as authoritative foreign policy statements giving regional governments little choice between two paths forward: cooperation with an avowedly beneficial China or America’s purported exploitative, divisive and destructive initiatives. Regarding the Philippines, an unprecedented show of support by the US for the territorial claims of its treaty ally resulted in an equally unprecedented pushback from Beijing.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

164. Mitigating the Political Cost of Financial Crisis with Blame Avoidance Discourse: The Case of Turkey

Author:: Büşra Söylemez-karakoç
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: How do centralized governments mitigate the political cost of severe financial crises? The economic voting scholarship has established that the clarity of responsibility, i.e., government accountability for economic conditions to the mass public, is a necessity for electoral reward or punishment for economic performance. On the one hand, political centralization, which reduces the number of veto players, may increase the visibility of the role of the executive in policy success or failure. On the other hand, it allows an uncontested blame avoidance discourse, especially when accompanied with democratic backsliding. Furthermore, the recent backlash against globalization has enabled blame shifting to international actors in many countries. Against this theoretical framework, we comparatively analyze the responsibility attribution discourses for the 1994, 2001, and 2018-2022 financial crises in the statements of incumbent presidents, ministers, and parliament members of Turkey. We find that while blame avoidance discursive strategies have been attempted in all three cases, the responsibility attribution for the 1994 and 2001 crises mostly targeted the executive. In contrast, for the ongoing crisis, the responsibility discourse is dominated with blaming international political economy factors, creating ambiguity, and targeting domestic non-governmental actors.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Politics, Financial Crisis, Voting, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

165. Between State Capitalism and Economic State Craft: China INC.

Author:: Sadia Rahman
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: China’s economy underwent regulatory, structural as well as spatial makeovers since the increase of opening up and reforms in 1978. Intermittent policy interventions have been implemented by the Chinese state to ensure that the economy plays a vital role. Relatedly, the Communist leadership’s economic perspective was shaped by two key attributes: ideology and functionality (pp. 8, 11, 42, 119, 148, 313, 314). From an ideological perspective, the legacy of reforms was as crucial as the equitable principle of Communist rule in China, as both ensured the party’s survival and its control over the state. From a functional perspective, the state’s performance remained an essential indicator for China to achieve economic growth and improve the living conditions of its people. In his book, Between State Capitalism and Economic State Craft: China INC, China expert Aravind Yelery captures the systemic reflections of these transitions, mapping how the state fused growth and encouraged further opening to help China manifest its rise. The book delves into China’s growth models examining how these contradictions are ‘chosen ones’ and how China aims to rally its economic statecraft globally. The central crux is the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) authority retention over the economy by preventing the state from giving up control over important sectors and industries. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) played a vital part in achieving this goal in China’s economy, allowing the CPC to control governance. Thus, the chapters are significantly interconnected enlightening on the ascendancy of capitalist approaches in the CPC, exploring how China managed to defy the decline experienced by previous communist regimes. The explanation of SOEs is presented as a key factor in establishing effective domestic economic controls, ultimately enabling China to exert its dominance in global economic affairs.
Topic:: Economics, Regulation, and State Capitalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

166. A Renewed Philippine-United States Alliance

Author:: Julio S. Amador III and Lisa Marie Palma
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Biden administration should keep in mind that domestic politics bears considerable implications for the alliance. Regarding economic relations, the United States needs to remain committed to policies that diversify supply chains and create opportunities for business and investment projects in the Philippines.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Investment
Political Geography:: Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

167. Australia and the Resilient Pacific Islands

Author:: Andrea Gleason
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Australia is committed to delivering at least AUD 700 million in climate finance to the Pacific and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure across the region, including through the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Infrastructure, Climate Finance, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Australia and Pacific Islands

168. Enhancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific through Sub-Regional Initiatives: The Case of the BIMP-EAGA Initiative

Author:: Hafiizh Hashim
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Hafiizh Hashim, Head Consultant at Sociable & Co. and Assistant Lecturer Universiti at Brunei Darussalam, explains that "[g]reater US engagement in the BIMP-EAGA [a subregional grouping encompassing states and subnational jurisdiction in eastern Southeast Asia] could deepen US-ASEAN relations" and "find convergence between US and ASEAN Indo-Pacific frameworks."
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

169. Pacific Perspectives on the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:: Joe-Silem Enlet
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Joe-Silem Enlet, former Consul General for the Federated States of Micronesia and current PhD Student at the University of Rhode Island, explains that "[t]he Pacific and its ocean people’s heritage need to be featured more prominently in the US Indo-Pacific strategy."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Heritage
Political Geography:: United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Micronesia

170. The US Should Enhance Economic Engagement with Taiwan

Author:: Min-Hua Chiang
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Min-Hua Chiang, East-West Center Adjunct Fellow and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub, explains "Further strengthening Taiwan’s economy will make it more capable of bearing the financial burden of defending the island against a Chinese invasion…," and this imperative is compounded as Taiwan is “a critical player in America’s competition with China in the global semiconductor industry.”
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Science and Technology, Leadership, Regional Economy, and Economic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

171. The US-India Clean Energy Partnership and Quad Provide Overlapping Pathways to Produce Clean Energy

Author:: Nischal Dhungel and Sethuram Senthil Kumar
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Nischal Dhungel and Mr. Sethuram Senthil Kumar, Consultant at the World Bank Group and Energy Engineer at both TRC Companies, Inc. and MCFA, respectfully, explain that "Robust partnerships with the United States, strategic cooperation within the Quad framework, and collective efforts across the Indo-Pacific region drive India's transformation in the energy sector."
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Energy
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Nepal, North America, and United States of America

172. US Perspectives on Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic and Roles for Partners

Author:: Rebecca Pincus
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Rebecca Pincus, Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, explains that "The development of Russia’s Arctic hydrocarbons is dependent on foreign investment and advanced technologies; as the West has withdrawn from Russia, China is an important, if imperfect, substitute..."
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

173. South Korean Perspectives on China-Russia Collaboration in the Arctic

Author:: Young Kil Park
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Young Kil Park, Research Fellow at Korea Maritime Institute, explains that "While the immediate impact of China-Russia collaboration in the Arctic on South Korea is limited, it remains wary of the long-term implications for its economic and security interests."
Topic:: Security, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Arctic

174. Rise of Economic Nationalism in Emerging Economies and the Influence of Elections

Author:: Michio Ueda
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Michio Ueda, President of Geopolitics & Strategy and Visiting Lecturer University of Tokyo, examines "the intersection between economic nationalism and recent elections in Indonesia and India" and finds that "industrial policy is not a significant point of political contention" and elections "serve as an opportunity to gain legitimacy for policies supporting economic nationalism."
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Nationalism, and Elections
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, India, Asia, and United States of America

175. The Australia-US Alliance from a Thai Perspective: An Unbreakable or Unpinnable Partnership?

Author:: Jittipat Poonkham
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Jittipat Poonkham, Associate Professor of International Relations at Thammasat University, argues that "AUKUS, as well as the Australia-US alliance, seems to be an “unpinnable” alliance in the sense that it cannot be firmly pinned down in Thailand’s strategic mindset."
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Partnerships, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:: Australia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

176. Skimming the East African Community Regional Force in the Kivu: Another Test Case of ‘African Solutions to African Problems’

Author:: Jean-Marie Kasonga Mbombo
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Regional integration is premised on the principle of subsidiarity enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations Organisation which empowers regional bodies to resolve conflicts in their jurisdictions (Chapter 8, Article 52). It implies cooperation among states sharing a geographic proximity. In Africa, such regional organisations include the Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS), Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Common Market for East Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC), and Southern African Development Community (SADC) to name but a few. However, the end of the Cold War witnessed the rise of intrastate conflicts worldwide, which many analysts associated with donor fatigue toward aid-dependent states (Thomas and Mazrui 1992; Bayart 2009; Bates 2008; Solomon 2015). These new wars of the 1990s were more pronounced in resource-rich countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kaldor 2006; Collier 2008). As a result, many economic communities established relevant protocols to boost regional integration and foster peace on the African continent: ECCAS Protocol of Peace and Security; ECOWAS Protocol relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping, and Secu-rity (1999); SADC Protocol on Politics, Defence and Security (2001); EAC Protocol on Peace and Security (2013).
Topic:: Economics, Regional Integration, Regional Organizations, and East African Community (EAC)
Political Geography:: Africa and East Africa

177. The Motives for Chinese and Western Countries’ Sovereign Lending to Africa

Author:: Eckhardt Bode
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper is one of the first to show systematically that the motives for sovereign lending to African countries differed considerably between China and Western countries during the last two decades. While Chinese lending mainly served its own economic or geopolitical objectives, which is well-known from the existing literature, Western countries’ lending also pursued objectives that appear to be at odds with their self-interests but whose precise nature is not yet well-understood. Using a new, da-taset on loans from China, Western countries and multilateral organizations to African countries, I empirically examine a broad variety of potential motives, aim at separating the motives pursued by the national governments from those pursued by their lending agencies, and employ an estimation strategy with increasingly complex fixed effects that yields additional interesting insights into the specificities of the motives.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, and Sovereign Lending
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Global West

178. 2014-2024: A Decade of Sanctions and the Strengthening of Russia’s Financial Sovereignty

Author:: Alexander Turov
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The summer of 2024 has been extraordinarily hot. Climatologists say the average temperature may exceed median values for the entire history of observations. But it is already clear that the political barometer has reached its peak this year, which is certainly having a direct impact on international relations and the global economy as a whole. The past months following the triumphant conclusion of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which marked the beginning of the collapse of the neocolonial system of global economic relations, and subsequent significant events in international affairs have confirmed Russia’s clear course toward financial sovereignty. For more than a decade now, that course has been pursued by the West, which has become unfriendly in a fairly short historical period. Yet in previous periods of our country’s history – the building of socialism, communism, advanced socialism, perestroika, and finally liberalism – the West actively used at an affordable price our fuel and raw material resources, which formed the basis of the Western economy and consumer society. The scientific achievements of our scholars also contributed to common global progress, as evidenced by the numerous Nobel Prizes they were awarded. So why, after three decades of euphoria based on the development of the market economy and the liberalization of everything, both necessary and unnecessary, has Russia once again been fenced off by NATO’s walls and subjected to economic sanctions, which essentially amount to an economic blockade? This happened before, during the early days of the young Soviet Republic, but the blockade lasted less than a hundred days – from October 1919 to January 1920 – because the level of understanding of global economic ties that formed the basis of politics and diplomacy among the old Western leaders was far higher than it is among today’s leaders, who seem more inclined to discuss issues concerning minority orientations than to concern themselves with the well-being and pressing needs of the majority.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Sanctions, Economy, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

179. Business & Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This report examines the relationship between a country's economic performance and its level of peacefulness. The key finding is that peace serves as a reliable predictor of a country's future macro-economic trajectory, creating a business environment that provides superior returns to global averages. This represents a valuable insight for informing strategic investment decisions and offering a multitude of applications for businesses and fund managers, including in the design of financial investment products. For corporations it can help to guide investment decisions into markets with lower risk and stronger growth potential.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Macroeconomics, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

180. Halo, Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 2024: Advancing a Systems-Based Approach to Understanding and Building Peace

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the operations of societal systems. To this end, this report brings together research conducted by IEP over the last decade and includes two conceptual approaches that are distinct but highly compatible: Positive Peace and Halo. These two concepts guide the organisation’s research, mission, and theory of social change. In addition, the report covers other related work including attempts to measure national intent, predict future substantial declines in peace, and to measure societal shocks and resilience in relation to the ecology.
Topic:: Economics, Peace, Resilience, and Systems Thinking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

181. Positive Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Peace is more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually related to many aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. In addition to being a transformative concept, it is also a social good. When combined with systems thinking Positive Peace is a transformational concept as it envisages new ways of understanding how societies operate and how to develop thriving communities. Toward this end, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) developed the Positive Peace Index (PPI), a statistically derived measure of the factors that create flourishing societies, which is based on eight Pillars of Positive Peace. The concept of Positive Peace as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time, are the focus of this report.
Topic:: Economics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Positive Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

182. Mexico Peace Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 11th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 1.4 percent in 2023. This was the fourth straight year of improvement, following four consecutive years of deteriorations. However, more states deteriorated than improved, with 15 states improving and 17 deteriorating.
Topic:: Economics, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

183. Global Peace Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. This year it introduces a new measure of global military capability that incorporates military sophistication, technology, and battle readiness into a single measure. The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

184. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific

185. From Carrots to Sticks, to Carrots Again? The EU’s Changing Sustainable Trade Agenda

Author:: Victor De Decker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Although sustainability criteria include references to human, social and labour rights as well as broader environmental concerns, this policy brief will focus on measures related to carbon emission reduction in relation to the Paris Agreement. This policy brief consists of three parts. First, there will be an overview of how Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapters have gained prominence in European Free Trade Agreements. The second part will be dedicated to the autonomous, unilateral EU initiatives the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Corporate Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). To conclude, there will be a brief analysis of how the EU is working within a multilateral setting on the issue of climate change. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a landmark framework renowned for its far-reaching vision encompassing 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. These goals collectively constitute the “universal policy agenda,” aiming to address global challenges and foster inclusive economic growth. Notable among these goals is the promotion of sustainable international trade, identified as a pivotal policy instrument contributing to overarching SDGs. The 2030 Agenda positions international trade as “an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction” while actively contributing to the broader pursuit of sustainable development.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Trade, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

186. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

187. Uganda’s Chess Game in Eastern DRC: With or Without M23?

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Uganda has various economic, political and security interests in Eastern DRC. The latter is for example a vital export market for Ugandan products, and an important source of gold, Uganda’s most important export product. In this situation, a careful tactical game is played, in which Kampala seeks to protect these interests in Eastern DRC – for example from Kigali. This does not only involve a clear engagement with Kinshasa, but to a lesser extent also with M23. This is particularly the case because M23 is expanding (and keeping) its territory; creating an incentive for regional actors to engage with them.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

188. Labor Market Volatility and Worker Financial Wellbeing: An Occupational and Gender Perspective

Author:: Julie Yixia Cai
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: One emerging but underexplored factor that is likely to contribute to group racial earnings disparity is unstable work schedules. This is often detrimental for hourly workers when volatility is frequent, involuntary, or unanticipated. Using data from 2005-2022 monthly Current Population Survey and its panel design, this study follows a group of hourly workers across a four-month period to assess whether labor market volatility relates to their financial well-being, focusing on low-wage care and service occupations as well as female workers and workers of color. The findings are threefold: In general, during economic expansion periods, nonwhite workers often benefit more in terms of wage growth compared to their white counterparts. Second, net of other characteristics, on average, greater volatility is associated with lower earnings, and this is mostly driven by those holding jobs in low-wage service sectors and healthcare support roles. Last, the earnings consequences of volatility vary significantly by the type of low-wage jobs a worker holds and their gender and race, but this is only true when volatility happens in a job. Specifically, when working within the same employment spell, female workers, particularly those of color and those working in low-wage service and care jobs, earn significantly less when facing greater volatility than their male counterparts or those working in non-service, non-care occupations.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Finance, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

189. Monetary Policy and Illiquidity

Author:: Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The discussion of financial stability, and the role of monetary policy, is incoherent because there is very little agreement on what constitutes financial stability (and, by implication, instability) - exchange rate stability, asset price stability, absence of debt default. By implication, there is a gap between the claims of various authors to the general applicability of their respective analyses, and the actual applicability of their conclusions, let alone the usefulness of some of their policy recommendations. The paper argues that the key issue is the regulation of the liquidity of all financial markets, and not just that of the banking system, through the markets for government securities. The paper examines the sources of this liquidity in the financial portfolios of the private sector, and how that liquidity may be managed through the open market operations of central banks and the debt management operations of governments. An implication of this approach is yield curve control and the use of (government) debt management to control the liquidity of the markets. These elements of monetary policy have been neglected in theory and policy since the 1950s.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Liquidity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

190. Considering Returns on Federal Investment in the Negotiated “Maximum Fair Price” of Drugs Under the Inflation Reduction Act: an Analysis

Author:: Edward W. Zhou, Paula G. da Silva, Debbie Quijada, and Fred D. Ledley
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 contained landmark provisions authorizing government to negotiate a “maximum fair price” for selected Medicare Part D drugs considering the manufacturer’s research and development costs, federal support for discovery and development, the extent to which the drugs address unmet medical needs, and other factors. This working paper describes federal investment in the discovery and development of the ten drugs selected for price negotiation in the first year of the IRA as well as the health value created through Medicare Part D spending on these drugs. We identified $11.7 billion in NIH funding for basic or applied research leading to approval of these drugs with median investment costs of $895.4 million/drug. This early public investment provided a median cost savings to industry of $1,485 million/drug, comparable to reported levels of investment by industry. From 2017-2021, Medicare Part D spent $126.4 billion (median $10.7 billion) for these products before rebates. Excluding two products for diabetes, Medicare Part D spending was $97.4 billion and the total health value created was 650,940 QALYs or $67.7 billion (WTP/QALY=$104K) representing a negative residual health value of -$29.7 billion (before rebates). We argue that a negotiated fair price should provide returns on both private and public investments in these products commensurate with the scale and risk of these investments, with the principal return on public sector investments being the residual health value (net price) accruing to those using the product. These empirical data provide a cost basis for negotiating a fair price that rewards early government investments in innovation and provides social value for the public.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Public Health, Pharmaceuticals, and Public Investment
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

191. Tilting at Windmills: Bernanke and Blanchard’s Obsession with the Wage-Price Spiral

Author:: Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) use a simple dynamic New Keynesian model of wage-price determination to explain the sharp acceleration in U.S. inflation during 2021-2023. They claim their model closely tracks the pandemic-era inflation and they confidently conclude that “… we don’t think that the recent experience justifies throwing out existing models of wage-price dynamics.” This paper argues that this confidence is misplaced. The Bernanke and Blanchard is another failed attempt to salvage establishment macroeconomics after the massive onslaught of adverse inflationary circumstances with which it could evidently not contend. It misrepresents American economic reality, hides distributional issues from view, de-politicizes (monetary and fiscal) policy-making, and sets monetary policymakers up to deliver significantly more monetary tightening than can be justified on the basis of more realistic model analyses.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, Macroeconomics, and Wages
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

192. The Diffusion of New Technologies

Author:: Aakash Kalyani, Nicholas Bloom, Marcela Carvalho, Tarek A. Hassan, Josh Lerner, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the Northeast Corridor. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of related jobs grows, hiring spreads geographically. But this process is very slow, taking around 50 years to disperse fully. Third, while initial hiring in new technologies is highly skill-biased, over time the mean skill level in new positions declines, drawing in an increasing number of lower-skilled workers. Finally, the geographic spread of hiring is slowest for higher-skilled positions, with the locations where new technologies were pioneered remaining the focus for the technology’s high-skill jobs for decades.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

193. Implications of the Inflation Reduction Act for the Biotechnology Industry

Author:: Cody Hyman, Henry Dao, Gregory Vaughan, and Fred D. Ledley
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 contains landmark provisions authorizing the government to negotiate the price of selected drugs covered by Medicare Part D. The biopharmaceutical industry has criticized these provisions as a threat to innovation arguing that reducing future revenues could disincentivize equity investment in biotechnology. This research examines the sensitivity of private and public equity investment in the biotechnology industry to drug price indices and market conditions from 2000-2022. The analysis shows that equity financing and valuation in the biotechnology industry were strongly associated with equity market conditions but not indices of either producer or consumer drug prices. These results do not support claims of an association between changing drug prices and the availability of equity capital to emerging biotechnology companies, which currently sponsor the majority of all clinical trials. These results add to evidence that the IRA may not have a negative impact on pharmaceutical innovation.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Inflation, Innovation, Biotechnology, Public Investment, and Inflation Reduction Act
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

194. Scale and Scope in Early American Business History: The “Fortune 500” of 1812

Author:: Richard Sylla and Robert E. Wright
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Fortune magazine began publishing annual rankings of U.S. corporations by revenue in 1955. Ever since, scholars and forecasters have analyzed changes in the Fortune 500 to help inform their judgments about industry concentration and the relative importance of different sectors of the economy. Unfortunately, earlier data are scarce, especially before the Civil War. Through extensive research we have created a sort of historical “Fortune 500” going back to 1812, ranked by corporate capitalization, which we share here. Numerous insights can be drawn from this dataset, including the historical dominance of the banking and finance sectors and the early importance of manufacturing. Perhaps the larger significance of being able to come up with a Fortune 500 for 1812, though, is the fact that even with a population of only about 7.5 million, U.S. already had more business corporations than any other country, and possibly more than all other countries put together, securing its role as the world’s first “corporation nation.” The ease of incorporating businesses released a lot of entrepreneurial energy that helped to build an ever-expanding economy and by the end of the 19th century, the U.S. would be the world’s largest national economy with tens of thousands of corporations.
Topic:: Economics, History, Business, and Industry
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

195. Setting Pharmaceutical Drug Prices: What the Medicare Negotiators Need to Know About Innovation and Financialization

Author:: Öner Tulum and William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the U.S. government through the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is negotiating with pharmaceutical companies over the “maximum fair price” of ten drugs in wide use by Medicare patients. Over the next few years, the number of drugs whose prices are subject to negotiations will increase. The pharmaceutical companies contend that a “fair” price would be a “value-based price” that enables the companies’ shareholders to capture the value that the drug creates for society. Invoking the dominant “maximizing shareholder value” ideology, the argument for value-based pricing assumes that it is only a pharmaceutical company’s shareholders who make the risky investments that fund drug innovation. Pharmaceutical executives and their lobbyists warn that a lowering of drug prices will reduce investments in new drugs. The purpose of this paper is to enable CMS negotiators to respond to these arguments by showing a) why drug-price regulation is required, given the relation between scale economies in supplying drugs and price inelasticity of drug demand; b) how the pharmaceutical companies with which they are negotiating prices are, in general, not using their profits from unregulated drug prices to fund drug innovation but rather to fund distributions to shareholders in the form of cash dividends and stock buybacks; c) that publicly listed pharmaceutical companies do not typically rely upon investment by shareholders to fund drug innovation; and d) that investment in drug innovation entails “collective and cumulative learning” in foundational and translational research that is both antecedent and external to the investments in clinical research that a pharmaceutical company may make to bring a safe and effective drug to market.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Finance, Innovation, Pharmaceuticals, and Medicare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

196. Good Policy or Good Luck? Why Inflation Fell Without a Recession

Author:: Thomas Ferguson and Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes claims that the Federal Reserve is principally responsible for the decline of inflation in the U.S. We compare several different quantitative approaches. These show that at most the Fed could plausibly claim credit for somewhere between twenty and forty percent of the decline. The paper then examines claims by central bankers and their supporters that a steadfast Fed commitment to keeping inflationary expectations anchored played a key role in the process. The paper shows that it did not. The Fed’s own surveys show that low-income Americans did not believe assurances from the Fed or anyone else that inflation was anchored. Instead, what does explain much of the decline is the simple fact that most workers nowadays cannot protect themselves by bargaining for higher wages. The paper then takes up the obvious question of why steep rises in interest rates have not so far led to big rises in unemployment. We show that recent arguments by Benigno and Eggertson that shifts in vacancy rates can explain this are inconsistent with the evidence. The biggest factor in accounting for the strength in the economy is the continuing importance of the wealth effect in sustaining consumption by the affluent. This arises, as we have emphasized in several papers, from the Fed’s quantitative easing policies. Absent sharp declines in wealth, the continuing importance of this factor is likely to feed service sector inflation in particular.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

197. Russia and China in Central Asia: Potential For Direct Competition

Author:: Maximilian Hess
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: China is now undisputedly the leading economic partner for the Central Asia region, with trade and investment continuing to increase despite Beijing’s economic slowdown. Russia is still the dominant political partner for the region, but its influence and ability to strong-arm Central Asian states has been significantly dented by the impact of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Central Asian states are now able in tacitly criticize Putin’s actions without significant cost and some have taken advantage of the negative impacts of Russia’s international isolation and sanctions to strike beneficial deals, in particular Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moscow remains content in its position, knowing that the lack of democracy in the region and dominance of elite networks in business and politics mean that regional states are still willing to turn to Moscow for political support, as witnessed in the Kyrgyz Republic in particular since President Japarov came to power in 2020. Tensions between Beijing and Russia have failed to emerge, at least publicly, although if the current trends continue the potential for direct competition may increase.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia

198. US-India Economic Ties: To the Next Level and Beyond

Author:: Aparna Pande
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: This executive summary outlines the key recommendations for policymakers that emerged from deliberations at the Takshashila Institution–Hudson Institute roundtable series “US-India Economic Ties: To the Next Level and Beyond.” Its recommendations are divided into four proposed areas for collaboration between India and the United States: trade and investment, ideas and human capital, technology, and methods and mechanisms.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

199. Understanding and Countering China’s Global South Strategy in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: While the United States and advanced economies and democracies in Europe and Asia are hardening their views of and position against China, the latter is gaining much ground with respect to the developing economies of the Global South. Indeed, China increasingly demands that developing nations base their discourse and policies on approaches that Beijing supports, and many Global South nations are increasingly complying. In other words, a growing number of these nations have started to alter and adopt discourse and policies that better align with Chinese demands and preferences. In the Indo-Pacific, a region that will largely determine the future shape of the global strategic landscape, evidence shows that developing nations are absorbing Chinese norms and preferences and gradually adjusting their thinking and behaviors accordingly. China’s progress vis-à-vis the Global South—especially in the Indo-Pacific—relies on what material inducements and opportunities Beijing can offer. These are most successful when they prioritize rapid development and regime security over liberal economic rules and individual rights. Meanwhile, regardless of where the fault lies, many developing nations do not believe they have benefited as much materially or institutionally from the US-led order as they would like or expect. Members of the Global South often believe the Chinese narrative about the alleged failure of US-led globalization in the post-colonial and post–Cold War periods. For this reason, many in developing economies believe that the interests and values of these nations (or at least those of the regimes in power) better align with what China is promising than with what Washington is delivering. The US and allies such as Japan and Australia have to accept and respond to this reality. This report analyzes and assesses why and how China is making worrying progress when it comes to shaping and influencing the policies and actions of developing economies in the Indo-Pacific. It explains why this is a significant problem for the US and its allies. It then offers some recommendations to counter the Chinese Global South strategy in the region. In offering six recommendations, this report argues that the US can complicate China’s bid for leadership within the Global South, increase the cost and risk for Beijing, challenge and change narratives and discourse favoring China in the Global South, and compete more effectively in the normative and institutional context.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Global South, and Indo-Pacific

200. The Global Impact of China’s Water and Related Environmental Problems

Author:: Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The quantity, location, and quality of water resources in China have long been a distinguishing and even defining characteristic of its history. Records at least as far back as the Ch’in era in the third century BC note the presence of massive waterworks such as irrigation and transportation canals. Terraced rice fields in hilly areas in central and southern China remain iconic images of Chinese civilization. During a contentious and important debate in the mid-twentieth century, geographers and political scientists asked whether the erection of a “hydraulic society” was the explanation for what political scientist Karl Wittfogel identified as “oriental despotism.”1 The German-trained academic argued that the existential requirement to contain endemic flooding and move water from the massive rivers of central and southern China to agricultural areas necessitated an authoritarian system for deploying labor on the scale required for hydraulic engineering projects spanning the continent. Chairman Mao Zedong drily noted at the beginning of his reign that “there is a lot of water in the south and not much water in the north . . . borrowing some water would be good.”2 Mao was soon to unleash the massive workforce of China to renew and expand efforts over the centuries to get water to farmland, control flooding, and reengineer the landscape of modern China. Even without exaggerating the centrality of water issues for historical China, in the modern era water resources are clearly still vital to the country’s economic and ecological health. And hydraulic engineering projects have become increasingly important, both to China’s Asian neighbors and to the global environment. An important new survey of the “ecological history” of modern China concludes that “in growing from impoverished giant to wealthy superpower in seventy years, China has sacrificed whatever resilience its ecosystem once possessed. It has polluted and poisoned its air, water, and soil . . . it has turned forests into plantations and seen deserts expand . . . and has seen lakes come to resemble green paint.”3 Unfortunately, China’s ecological problems have increasingly had negative impacts outside its borders. China’s unprecedented geoengineering to move water from the south to the north is now imperiling both the water resources available downstream from Tibet and the Hindu-Kush mountains, and the economy and ways of living of literally billions of people. China needs ever more land to grow higher quality food and produce higher yields, which frees up land for housing its population. These efforts have led to deforestation not only in China but also in South America and South Asia. And the consistent choice of Beijing’s leadership to drive economic growth at the expense of environmental health has led to dangerous levels of water pollution and poor soil health in China. Environmental degradation has become a growing political issue in China, and its export of this problem has incited considerable international concern. This study explores these issues with a focus on water resources, and it outlines the regional and global impacts of Chinese policy. The study concludes with a discussion of China’s ability and ambition to address these problems as well as how affected countries can help move Chinese leadership toward a more constructive and cooperative effort to develop a solution.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and Water
Political Geography:: China and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS