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6651. The Southern African Development Community: Regional Integration in Ferment

Author:
David Simon and Alexander Johnston
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Shortly before he became President of the 'new South Africa' in May 1994, Nelson Mandela stressed that his country's relations with the region's poorer and weaker neighbours would be characterized by 'sensitivity and restraint'. This declaration of intent was welcome given South Africa's traditional dominance as the hegemonic power during the apartheid era and the resulting crude and at times violent exploitation of its neighbours' dependence, in varying degree, on the Republic's economy for a wide range of goods and services, for transport links and a market for employment. Indeed, South Africa's accession to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 1994 offered the promise of a new deal in regional relations, with the new member acting as an 'engine of growth' and as a cooperative and enthusiastic supporter of purposeful and sustained regional integration.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

6652. Currency Boards or Dollarization — Solutions or Traps

Author:
John Chown
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Currency boards have been suggested for Russia, and adopted elsewhere in eastern Europe. Brazil's fixed rate has had to be abandoned, but Argentina is considering replacing its currency board with dollarization, and suggesting this solution for the rest of Latin America. Fixed exchange-rate regimes (and the crawling peg in Russia) have collapsed in Southeast Asia but Hong Kong, which had a formal currency board, has (so far) survived.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

6653. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1999

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the end of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6654. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1999

Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6655. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1999

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators have paused after strong growth early this year. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6656. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1999

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September. This report merits careful interpretation, but does not change general conclusions drawn from previous releases, which show the economy is in good health: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems must be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics and Health
Political Geography:
United States

6657. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1999

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of 3.0 percent (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems do not seem to be a problem yet.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6658. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 1999

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6659. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1999

Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6660. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 1999

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6661. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 1999

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6662. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 1999

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6663. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 1999

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6664. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 1999

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6665. The Chechen Problem: Sources, Developments and Future Prospects

Author:
Alexandru Liono
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The political, economic and social situation in Chechnya is a matter of concern for all the analysts of the current environment in the North Caucasus. Every day brings about new developments in Chechnya, which can hardly be characterised as encouraging. The more recent events, which culminated with the intervention in Chechnya and the siege of Grozny by the Russian Federal troops in November – December 1999, have raised even more questions about the future of the Caucasus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and North Caucasus

6666. A Primer on the Balance Sheet of the Eurosystem

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

6667. EMU and Labour Markets: Vae Germania?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The outcome of the first round of wage negotiations in post-EMU Germany sheds some new light on the old question: What impact will the euro have on labour markets and unemployment? Economists would say that it depends on the structure of the bargaining process. In wage-setting, it seems that either one of the two extremes of full centralisation or complete fragmentation is conducive to low inflation and unemployment.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

6668. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

6669. Why Will No One Invest In Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The donor countries hoped the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina would use the promised $ 5.1 Billion post-war reconstruction aid to undertake the structural changes necessary to transition from communism to capitalism. As donor-aid diminished, private investment would replace it, stimulated by structural reforms. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Indeed, interviews with Bosnian and foreign businessmen show a common reluctance to invest in BiH.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

6670. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

6671. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

6672. The State Of Albania

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Albania

6673. The Globalization of Services: What Has Happened? What Are the Implications?

Author:
Gary Hufbauer and Tony Warren
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Globalization has affected all facets of the world economy. This includes services, which in most economies are the single largest contributor to economic growth and employment. However, despite its importance to national output, the impact of globalization on services is only recently receiving the attention of researchers and policy-makers.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

6674. Hazards and Precautions: Tales of International Finance

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Erika Wada
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In the wake of financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997-98), Russia (1998) and Brazil (1998-99), respected observers have questioned the benefits of wide-open international capital markets (Bhagwati, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Rodrik, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999). Our purpose is to identify true hazards and suggest appropriate precautions.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico

6675. Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting And Central Bank Behavior

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents nothing more than the latest version of cheap talk by central banks unable to sustain monetary commitments. Advocates of inflation targeting, including the adopting central banks themselves, have expressed the view that the transparency and communication of the inflation targeting framework grant the central bank greater short-run flexibility in pursuit of its long-run inflation goal.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

6676. Modeling Korean Unification

Author:
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
For North Korea, product market integration would generate large welfare gains, sufficient to end the famine. Additional gains could be had through military demobilization. For the South, the impact of product market integration would be trivial, but the impact of factor market integration would be considerable, affecting the composition of output, distribution of income, and rate of growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

6677. Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case For A Payments Standstill

Author:
Marcus Miller and Lei Zhang
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Is sovereign borrowing so different from corporate debt that there is no need for bankruptcy-style procedures to protect debtors? With the waiver of immunity, sovereign debtors who already face severe disruption from short-term creditors grabbing their currency reserves are also exposed to litigious creditors trying to seize what assets they can in a 'race of the vultures'.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

6678. Beyond Kosovo: A Regional Approach to the Balkans

Author:
Roger Kirk, Jack M. Seymour Jr., John Lampe, and Louis Sell
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Basic Factors Underlying a Regional Settlement 1. Any overall settlement in the Balkans should be area-wide and coordinated among the entities directly involved, the neighboring states, the key nations of the outside community, and the relevant political and economic international institutions. 2. It will have to include political arrangements, international security guarantees, and substantial economic assistance as a basis for genuine peace and reconciliation. 3. It must embrace generally accepted international standards, including respect for human rights and rights for ethnic minorities; right of return for all area refugees; rule of law; effective media freedom; and free elections supervised or, where necessary, organized by the international community. 4. The settlement should promote and institutionalize political and economic cooperation, regional trade and/or formal ties among the participating states and entities of the former Yugoslavia, and neighboring states as feasible, including the free flow of goods, labor and capital. 5. International assistance in reconstruction, economic reform and development of economic ties among the peoples of the region and with the European Community must be massive. It should, however, be designed to promote democratic institutions, market reform, adherence to peace agreements, and respect for human rights. 6. Such assistance should target the private sector, encourage local initiatives, and help governments pursue effective economic reform policies. It should seek to curtail corruption and the maintenance of unprofitable state industries. It should avoid encouraging international dependency. The purpose should be to build societies and practices conducive to self-reliance, international cooperation, and outside investment. Positive and negative lessons can be drawn from experiences in Bosnia. 7. The support of the broad population of Serbia will be necessary if peaceful and economically viable regional arrangements are to last. The reconstruction process implied in these arrangements will itself be an incentive for the Serbs to opt away from destructive nationalist policies and join in the regional reconstruction process. 8. Neither lasting peace in the Balkans nor democracy in Serbia can be achieved as long as Slobodan Milosevic remains in power. He has been indicted by the Tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity and his removal from power is a prime NATO objective. There are increasing and encouraging signs of popular Serb desire to be rid of Milosevic, but it is not certain that he will depart in the near future. 9. A regional settlement may have to be negotiated indirectly with, or imposed upon, Milosevic as the ruler of Serbia. It should nevertheless be made clear that the West condemns Milosevic\'s actions, that Serbia cannot resume its rightful place in Europe as long as it is governed by indicted war criminals, and that the West will help the people of Serbia in their efforts to bring forth new, democratic, cosmopolitan leadership in their country. 10. The Kosovar Albanians cannot be expected to live under Serbian control again for the foreseeable future. Arrangements short of formal independence such as an international protectorate or trusteeship are possible, indeed likely, for a transitional period. A more permanent and self-sustaining arrangement is highly desirable if it can be achieved without creating more instability in the former Yugoslav space and the neighboring area. 11. A credible international military presence is needed to encourage the return of the remaining Albanian-Kosovars, the continued residence of Serb-Kosovars and to maintain peace and order within Kosovo and on its borders. Such a presence will also be a lasting part of any transitional arrangement. Any foreseeable regional settlement will similarly require a prolonged foreign military presence. This settlement should, however, lay the foundation for an end to that presence by, among other things, providing for supervised demilitarization of the states and entities involved, and a comprehensive regional arms control agreement. 12. A central objective of any regional settlement should be to promote conditions that will encourage a stable political and military environment, economic growth, and increasing self-reliance. These changes will permit an end to the foreign military, political, and economic presence in the region, though no date for that termination should be set.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

6679. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:
Philip Manow
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped there-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

6680. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:
Philip Manow
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped the re-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

6681. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege

Author:
George Bunn
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea

6682. Climate Change and the Transformation of World Energy Supply

Author:
Steve Fetter
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
In December 1997, world attention turned to Kyoto, Japan, where parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) negotiated a protocol to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions of the industrialized countries by 5 percent below 1990 levels over the next ten to fifteen years. The agreement has been attacked from both sides. Environmental groups assert that much deeper reductions are urgently needed. Opponents claim that the proposed reductions are either unnecessary or premature, would curtail economic growth, or would be unfair or ineffective without similar commitments by developing countries.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Japan

6683. A Cross-Regional Analysis of Civil Society and Democratic Development

Author:
Andrew Green
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Domestic instability often has a deleterious effect at the international level, too, particularly as more states adopt democratic institutions and market-oriented economies. Whether we are talking about failing multi-ethnic states and their impact on the UN and NATO, or about failing economies and their impact on international markets and such international organizations as the IMF and the World Bank, it is clear that the domestic and international levels cannot be separated. While instability may arise from many different sources, the state-society connection is perhaps the most problematic: a democracy in which the only link between citizens and politicians is the electoral connection is a democracy impoverished by stagnant ideas and limited societal input. A state disconnected from society is prone to domestic instability, with negative effects at both the domestic and international levels.
Topic:
NATO, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United Nations

6684. Playing the Green Card - Financing the Provisional IRA : Part 1

Author:
John Horgan and Max Taylor
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
In the first of two articles on the fundraising activities of the Provisional IRA (PIRA), the extent and nature of the PIRA's finance operations are described. The areas of kidnapping for ransom, armed robbery. extortion and drug trading, although very specific, serve to illustrate the nature and potential complexity of fundraising activities, the general issues that surround them, as well as specific internal organizational issues and factors indicative of an acute awareness by PIRA leaders of the environments within which they and members of their organization operate. How the PIRAs involvement in certain kinds of criminal activities can and does influence not only their operational development and successes but also the development and sustenance of support for the PIRA's political wing, Sinn Fein, is discussed. It is clear that the absence of direct PIRA involvement in certain forms of criminality is imperative for the development of Sinn Fein's political successes. In the second article, which describes how and why PIRA financing operations have evolved into a much more sophisticated and technical set of activities (including money laundering), what emerges is a picture of the PIRA and Sinn Fein which serves to portray one of the most important long-term, fundamental, limiting factors for the development of a large, sophisticated terrorist group (and its political wing) as finance, and not solely the personal or ideological commitment of its active members. Both of these articles will illustrate the PIRA leadership's many internal organizational concerns relating to fundraising, the links between the PIRA's militants and Sinn Fein - and between PIRA and Sinn Fein fundraising - and the relative sophistication of the Republican movement as a whole. Aiding these illustrations will be case study material, interview data and both public and privately-held documentation. The descriptive data, surrounding issues and its implications presented here, along with case-study material, discussions and interpretations presented in a second article serve to illustrate the many more general and conceptual issues emerging from terrorist financing.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism

6685. Russian Federal Budget and the Regions

Author:
Alexei Makushkin
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In the period of the Soviet rule public finances formed the basis of the national economy and, consequently, were the key factor determining the relationship between the Central power and the regions. Beginning with the proclamation of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in 1 99 1 the role of the Center and the regions changed. The State has reduced its influence on the national economy, largely due to the reduction of the share of the GDP reallocated through the Central budgetary system. In 1 999 the volume of the budgetary reallocated product made only 14- 1 5% of the total. The relationship between the federal budget and the system of the regional finances became very complicated and oblique. The state economic sector has decreased, power has become decentralized in Russia.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

6686. State Power and the Asian Crisis

Author:
Linda Weiss
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
The Asian financial crisis has re-opened the debate about the role of the state in the region's industrialisation. Just when there seemed to be growing acknowledgment across the economic and political disciplines that certain kinds of state involvement were vital to the rapid upgrading of the Northeast Asian economies and that understanding what made states effective or ineffective was a crucial issue, along came the financial hurricane. Profound disarray of an economic and social nature has been the most immediate and important consequence of this watershed event. Theoretical disarray has followed closely in its path. This paper seeks to inject some theoretical rigour into the discussion of the Asian crisis. State power in the Asian setting - whether and in what way the state's transformative capacity is weak or robust - and how it relates to the impact of international markets is central to the argument that follows.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Northeast Asia

6687. Social and Economic Policies to Prevent Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

Author:
Jeni Klugman
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Complex humanitarian emergencies have caused widespread death and suffering over the last two decades. While recent tragedies in Bosnia, Rwanda and Angola have made the world more aware of the terrible human toll involved, the international community has yet to develop effective policy responses to stem such crises.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Genocide, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Rwanda, and Angola

6688. Thinking About the Future: Economic Aspects

Author:
Emilio Gerelli
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Studies Center
Abstract:
Building scenarios of the future has been defined "the art of thinking the unthinkable". And in fact the successful author of scenarios must be able to combine both an open and creative mind, and analytical capabilities to envisage different and sometimes counterintuitive combinations of actors, factors and trends. Our author is often also "heroic", since he knows that most probably he will be disproved by facts. However it is worth bravely accepting the challenge of uncertainty, since "illustrating the future by means of scenarios is a way to overcome human beings' resistance to change. Scenarios can thus open mental horizons to allow the individual to accept and understand change, and so be able to shape the world. Scenarios may help in seizing new opportunities ahead as well as avoiding undesirable effects of misconceived actions". In this connection a historian notes: "it is desirable, possible and even within certain limits necessary to forecast our future…However the process of forecasting must be based necessarily on the knowledge of the past".
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

6689. Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Latin America

Author:
William Smith and Roberto Korzeniewicz
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:
The crystallization of the so-called “Washington Consensus” in the late 1980s sparked intense debates regarding the likely social impact of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment. Academic critics and political opponents argued that Washingtonian reforms, and neoclassical economics more broadly, lacked a coherent theory of growth, and were bound to result in long-term negative trends in popular welfare and social inequality. Advocates of neoliberal restructuring, in contrast, while recognizing that market-oriented reforms could lead initially to a decline in output and standards of living, were confident that these reforms eventually would lead to sustainable growth and, as a consequence, greater equality and enhanced social welfare. A decade later we revisit this debate to evaluate recent trends in economic growth, poverty and inequality, and to assess accompanying shifts in the theoretical, policy, and political terrains.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Washington, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

6690. The Political Economy of Energy Taxes, OECD 1973-1995: The Role of Political Institutions, Public Opinion and Ideology (A Pre-Test)

Author:
Svetlana Valerie Morozova
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The paper presents a theoretical cross-national study of energy taxation, concentrating on the heavy fuel oil tax. It theoretically investigates the effects that public opinion, institutional corporatism and left-wing ideology may have on the cross-national variance in manufacturing energy taxes, controlling for the plausible influence of budget deficits, energy import-dependency and deindustrialization. It is hypothesized that in more corporatist nations public opinion supportive of energy conservation, in combination with the Left-wing ideology of governing legislative coalition, will lead to higher energy taxes. Deindustrialization, proxied by the declining employment and output value in/of energy-intensive industries is believed to be responsible for a certain share of energy tax variance in the OECD countries. Finally, it is argued that energy import-dependency brings affects national manufacturing energy taxes.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics

6691. Ukraine: Challenges of the Continuing Transition

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The NIC routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

6692. Northeast Asia: Static but Stable

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

6693. Federalism in Russia: How Is It Working

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This conference was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. John Battilega of the Science Applications International Corporation served as rapporteur. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

6694. Migration, Urbanization, and Social Adjustment

Author:
Michael J. White
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Migration is the demographic process that links rural to urban areas, generating or spurring the growth of cities. The resultant urbanization is linked to a variety of policy issues, spanning demographic, economic, and environmental concerns. Growing cities are often seen as the agents of environmental degradation. Urbanization can place stress on the land through sprawl; coincident industrial development may threaten air and water quality. In the eyes of many observers, rapid urbanization is also linked to problems of unemployment and the social adaptation of migrants in their new urban setting. Cities advertise society's inequalities in income, housing, and other social resources, whether these problems are new or just newly manifest in urban settings. Most of the migration conventionally liked to these urban issues was seen as following a conventional pattern. In this policy brief I raise some issues about the nature of contemporary, migratory behavior, both for our understanding of processes of population redistribution directly, and for understanding some of the implications of that redistribution. Contemporary research is sketching the contours of this migratory behavior and the social adjustment that accompanies it. New research is beginning to shed light on the rate of migrant adaptation, on the connection between origin and destination communities through remittances, and the demographic structure and dynamics of refugee movements.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Migration

6695. Public Housing in Washington, D.C.: With Moscow in Mind

Author:
Vyacheslav Glazychev
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The pitiful state of public housing in Washington, D.C., was well known in 1994, when Vyacheslav Glazychev, president and founder of the Academy of the Urban Environment in Moscow, was here trying to understand the function of the Advisory Neighborhood Commissions and in 1997 when he returned to spend several months as a Guest Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Based on his observations of Washington, D.C. and his extensive experience in Moscow, he found that despite the obvious differences in handling the issue of public housing in Washington, D.C. and Moscow, at least one thing is comparable: in both cities money spent on maintenance and repair has been insufficient while priority has long been given to new construction.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

6696. Challenging Traditional Participation in Brazil: The Goals of Participatory Budgeting

Author:
Pedro Jacobi
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Using the mechanism of “participatory budgeting” implemented in the city of Porto Alegre, Pedro Jacobi analyses a new practice of resource allocation in several Brazilian urban areas. He comes to the conclusion that participatory budgeting is an effective tool in the democratization of the city's management— helping to break old patterns of clientelist relations. According to Jacobi, the new mechanism promotes decentralization of municipal decision-making and increases public control over the city's investment policies.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

6697. The Legacy of Habitat II: Issues of Governance

Author:
K.C Sivaramakrishnan
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Debate on how the Habitat II Conference in Istanbul influenced thinking on issues of urban governance will have to be preceded by some understanding of what was sought and what was achieved at the conference. The Istanbul conference was an international “happening” that began with a series of events before and during the conference itself. Habitat II adopted a Global Plan of Action (GPA) and an Istanbul Declaration (ID) as the official documents of the conference, summarizing the discussions and the outcomes. This paper is limited to the discussions and recommendations of the GPA on the issues of urban governance, which are gathered mainly in its part D, under the title “Capacity Building and Institutional Development.” To what extent does this chapter reflect an understanding of the realities of urban governance? What is the assessment of the new challenges in this regard, in the context of major political, economic, and social shifts across the world in the wake of increased globalization of trade, investment, and information?
Topic:
Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Istanbul

6698. 100 Companies Receiving The Largest Dollar Volume Of Prime Contract Awards - Fiscal Year 1998

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
This report presents summary data on the 100 companies, and their subsidiaries, receiving the largest dollar volume of Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards during fiscal year (FY) 1998. Table 1 lists the 100 companies in alphabetical order and gives their associated rank. Table 2 identifies the parent companies in rank order, with their subsidiaries, and gives the total net value of awards for both the parent company and its subsidiaries. In many cases, the parent company receives no awards itself, but appears on the list because of its subsidiaries. Table 2 also shows what percentage of the total awards each company's awards represent, as well as the cumulative percentage represented by all companies. Table 3 lists the top 100 companies DoD-wide in rank order and breaks the totals into three categories of procurement: Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT); Other Services and Construction; and Supplies and Equipment. Table 4 lists the top 50 companies for each of the Reporting Components in rank order, and by category of procurement.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6699. 100 Contractors Receiving The Largest Dollar Volume Of Prime Contract Awards for Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation - Fiscal Year 1998

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
This report presents summary data on the 100 prime contractors receiving the largest dollar volume in Department of Defense (DoD) awards over $25,000 for research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT) work during fiscal year (FY) 1998. RDT work can include research (basic and applied) and development (exploratory, advanced, engineering, operational systems, or management and support services). Full definitions for each of these categories are provided in Section 235.001 of the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement. These data rank each corporation according to its relative standing. The order of ranking is based on the net value of each contractor's RDT awards. Beginning in FY 1994, the contractors have been ranked by the parent company vs. subsidiaries or divisions of the company as in past issues of this publication. For example, figures for General Motors Corporation include awards to Hughes Aircraft Company. Also, classification of a company as foreign is based on the parent company. Beginning in FY 1996, only the top 100 contractors are listed in this publication. When percentages are used for dollar amounts they are based on whole dollars. Table 1 lists the 100 contractors in alphabetical order, displays the order of ranking for each, and shows how each has been categorized for reporting purposes. The categories are business firm (B), foreign contractor (F), and nonprofit institution (N). Table 2 shows the net value of awards to U.S. business firms. Those firms which qualify as small businesses are further identified by an "S." The net value of awards to each of the firm's reported locations is also provided. Tables 3 and 4 provide the net value of awards to U.S. educational and other nonprofit institutions and foreign contractors. As in Table 1, contractors in Tables 2 through 4 are shown by order of ranking, with their total awards indicated by an asterisk (*). The value of awards to each of the contractor's reported locations is also shown for these tables.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

6700. Prime Contract Awards, Size Distribution

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
This report provides data on prime contract actions (PCAs) over $25,000 awarded by the Department of Defense (DoD) in fiscal year (FY) 1998. For reporting purposes, contracts have been distributed by dollar value into 11 different size categories. The tables provide information on the number of total actions, their net value, and their percentage of distribution, by size, and according to a variety of categories. The categories include Defense Component, type of contract involved, extent of competed procurements, kind of contract action taken, selected procurement programs, and labor standard statutes. Table 1 presents data by individual size category (e.g., $25,000 to $49,999, $50,000 to $99,999) while Tables 2 through 7 present data in cumulative categories (e.g., $25,000 or more; $50,000 or more). The information in Prime Contract Awards, Size Distribution, assists DoD management in projecting the workload that will be required by various proposed projects. For example, using data in this publication, DoD officials could determine that a proposal to review all contract actions of $500,000 or more in FY 1998 would require examining approximately 27,000 transactions, or 11.7 percent of the total transactions as shown in Table 2. These data can also be used to identify trends in DoD procurement, (e.g., to identify which of the various types of contracts were most frequently awarded, in terms of number of contract actions, during FY 1998).
Topic:
Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
United States