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6601. Euro Spectator 2000 - Italy

Author:
Silvia Nenci and Marina Mancini
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
According to the “Eurobarometer” survey (Eurobarometer No 54), conducted in November and December 2000 among more than 16,000 citizens of the European Union, 55% (-3% in comparison with spring 2000) of Europeans support the single currency, whilst 37% do not. The Member States in which support is strongest are Italy (79%), Luxembourg (75%), Belgium (72%), Greece (70%), Ireland (69%), Spain (68%) and the Netherlands (64%). The majority of public opinion is against the Euro in Sweden (26%), the United Kingdom (21%), Denmark (41%) and Finland (45%). Looking at Italy, results show that 79% of citizens are in favour of the Euro (-2% in comparison with previous six months), 17% are against it (+ 3%) and the remaining 4% are indifferent.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, Greece, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, and Luxembourg

6602. Globalization and Its Impact Across Sectors

Author:
Gerald A. Hendrickson
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Globalization is not a topic that immediately attracts the attention of most public administrators. However, understanding the implications of globalization for labor markets across economic sectors can affect the way public sector managers approach personnel planning. This paper attempts to enhance this understanding in three ways. It will carefully examine some of the issues around globalization, subject the ideas from the dominant perspectives to empirical testing and propose alternative hypotheses. In the end, the mission of this paper is to provide some insight into the kind of labor environment that public sector managers will encounter as their plans come to fruition in the future.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

6603. Reducing Urban and Industrial Pollution in Chile

Author:
Joseph M. Lieberson, Mark G. Hodges, and Gene M. Owens
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
In Chile's capital of Santiago, the summer sun rises over a hazy, smog-filled sky. The sky darkens as the day progresses and often turns a light brown. In winter, air quality is even worse, and visibility drops sharply. A ring of mountains and thermal inversions trap pollution in a choking cloud over the city. But the mountains and air currents are not the whole problem. Twenty years ago the air was relatively clean. That was before economic growth accelerated sharply. A rapid increase in industrial production and a major increase in truck, bus, and automobile traffic are all pumping pollutants into the air. The result is a high level of respiratory problems, sickness, and premature death.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

6604. Creating a Global Economy

Author:
Joan E. Spero
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
Abstract:
Headlines in recent weeks have been filled with news of earthquakes. From Turkey to Taiwan, tectonic plates have been shifting leaving toppled buildings, trapped victims, and homeless survivors in their wake. In the last decade of the twentieth century, other less visible but equally powerful seismic shifts have also taken place. The tectonic plates of the world's political, security and economic systems have shifted dramatically. The end of the Cold War, the creation of a global, capitalist economy, and the emergence of the United States as the world's only superpower—these and other seismic shifts have toppled the dangerous but stable bipolar international system that had endured for nearly fifty years. Power structures, relations among states, international institutions, and international norms have changed in fundamental ways.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6605. Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Over the past 15 months, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), in close collaboration with US Government specialists and a wide range of experts outside the government, has worked to identify major drivers and trends that will shape the world of 2015. The key drivers identified are: Demographics, Natural resources and environment, Science and technology, The global economy and globalization, National and international governance, Future conflict, The role of the United States. In examining these drivers, several points should be kept in mind: No single driver or trend will dominate the global future in 2015 Each driver will have varying impacts in different regions and countries The drivers are not necessarily mutually reinforcing; in some cases, they will work at cross-purposes. Taken together, these drivers and trends intersect to create an integrated picture of the world of 2015, about which we can make projections with varying degrees of confidence and identify some troubling uncertainties of strategic importance to the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

6606. Battling International Bribery 2000

Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Bribery of foreign public officials by businesses is a serious problem in the international marketplace. This corrupt practice penalizes firms that play by the rules and compete on the merits of their products and services. But the damage is not limited to billions of dollars of lost exports. Bribery of public officials in commercial dealings undermines good governance, retards economic development and is especially damaging to developing countries and those in transition to market economies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6607. Prospects for WTO Trade Negotiations After Seattle: Foreign Strategies and Perspectives

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In a recent conference, trade experts identified three primary reasons the World Trade Organization (WTO) failed to launch a new trade Round at its December 1999 Ministerial. First, leading members were unable to resolve differences on critical issues prior to the gathering. In addition, many developing countries and nongovernmental organizations were more assertive than they had been at previous conferences. Finally, in recent years, the WTO has expanded the range of issues it addresses, which has made efforts to reach a consensus on any point more difficult. According to the speakers, as a result of the acrimonious Ministerial, the WTO has suffered a substantial loss of credibility, which will impair efforts to launch a new Round in the near term. There is no immediate alternative to strong US leadership, and WTO negotiations will be more complicated because developing countries and nongovernmental organizations will be more inclined to resist trade liberalization efforts that they believe do not advance their interests. Experts at the conference offered a variety of assessments regarding the course the WTO might choose to follow this year. The majority argued that if the trade body is seeking to rebuild confidence, it could continue with scheduled meetings on agriculture and services and use the time to rebuild confidence. A minority, however, held that the forum is too fractured to make progress, thus talks would only undermine the already declining prestige of the trade body. The experts identified several long-run challenges that the WTO will probably need to address to be an effective decisionmaking institution, including: Bridging the developed-developing country gap Costa Rica, Mexico, and South Africa generally support trade liberalization and have credibility among developed and developing states; thus they are in a position to meld the interests of the two sides. Enacting institutional reforms The organization's expansive agenda and large membership require that it adopt policies that facilitate decisionmaking, especially before new members such as China and Russia join. The trade body may try to increase transparency to promote greater trust in its procedures. Also, to avoid protracted and bitter selections such as the forum suffered last year, the WTO could review its procedures for electing a new director general. Managing the backlash against globalization Supporters of freer trade could launch a massive educational program to highlight the gains for all countries from expanded trade and to counter the dire assertions made by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia and China

6608. The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
New and reemerging infectious diseases will pose a rising global health threat and will complicate US and global security over the next 20 years. These diseases will endanger US citizens at home and abroad, threaten US armed forces deployed overseas, and exacerbate social and political instability in key countries and regions in which the United States has significant interests.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and National Security
Political Geography:
United States

6609. Urban Violence in São Paulo

Author:
Nancy Cardia
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Today homicide is the highest cause of death of young people in Brazil. Nancy Cardia, senior researcher at the University of São Paulo's Center for the Study of Violence, examines urban violence in São Paulo arguing that violence has become a major public health problem.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

6610. Governance, Urban Environment, and the Growing Role of Civil Society

Author:
María Elena Ducci
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
In urban areas in developing countries, the current experience indicates that well organized and well-informed citizens have become the best motors for positive change within cities and it is the state that has fallen out of touch, in spite of constant declarations about the importance of citizens' participation. María Elena Ducci explains how in Latin America, the urban social movements that focused on the fight for land and housing from the sixties to the eighties today have become citizens' groups seeking to maintain and improve quality of life. Once again, territory has become the focus for city inhabitants who are discovering new ways of being social and becoming the political protagonists of their own lives in the city. According to Ducci, the dynamic of urban politics is changing as these new players—the citizens' groups that are defending their urban environment—come to the fore with enormous strength and energy. They oppose and block public and private urban projects of enormous scope, which raises costs and lengthens time frames for the companies involved. This paper focuses on how these groups, which demand a better quality of life and more equality, are working in an increasingly globalized and polarized city.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

6611. Does FDI Increase Firm Value in Emerging Markets?

Author:
Wi Saeng Kim
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper conducts an event study for a sample of firms listed on the Korean Stock Exchange. The study finds that positive and statistically significant abnormal returns occur around the announcement date of foreign direct investments. This finding suggests that security prices in the Korean stock market do reflect firm-specific information, and that FDI by Korean MNCs are, on average, value increasing investment decisions. The finding is consistent with the studies of Doukas and Travlos (1988) and Fatemi (1984) which found similar results for U.S. MNCs.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Korea

6612. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of January 20, 2000

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $26.5 billion in November, from $25.6 billion (revised) in October, as imports increased more than exports.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6613. U.S. Government Statistics: R Expenditures as a Percent of GDP

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Division of Science Resources Studies (SRS) of the National Science Foundation publishes the biennial report, National Patterns of R Resources. This report describes and analyzes current patterns of research and development (R) in the United States, in relation to the historical record and the reported R levels of other industrialized countries. For years in which the full report is not produced, current, annual statistics on national and international R trends are released in data updates like this one.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

6614. Israel's Major Economic Challenge: Closing the Gap in the Field of Business Economics

Author:
Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Why is it that Israel's per capita GNP still lags substantially behind that of the leading countries of the world? Why is it likely to take decades for the Israeli economy to catch up? This is while the Israeli papers are full of news about very promising high-tech start-ups, and we even hear occasionally about payments of billions of dollars by major foreign firms to acquire Israeli businesses which were founded a few years ago and have at most several hundred employees.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

6615. New Answers To Old Questions: Explaining The Slow Adoption Of Ring Spinning In Lancashire, 1880-1913

Author:
Timothy Leunig
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This paper re-examines theories previously advanced to explain Lancashire's slow adoption of ring spinning. New cost estimates show that although additional transport costs and technical complementarities between certain types of machine reduced ring adoption rates, these supply side constraints were not dominant. Instead what mattered most were demand side factors. Lancashire produced far more fine yarns than other countries and that yarn was better spun on mules. Furthermore, Lancashire had a sizeable export yarn trade, a market again more suited to mule spinning. Low ring adoption rates were a positive response to demand patterns dominated by high quality goods.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

6616. The 'Labour Question' in Nineteenth Century Brazil: Railways, Export Agriculture and Labour Scarcity

Author:
Lucia Lamounier
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This paper examines changing patterns of labour relations in nineteenth-century Brazil associated with the building of railways and expansion of export agriculture. It addresses the 1850s-1880s period, decades when the `labour question' became a pressing issue for contemporaries. The extinction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade in 1850 posed the problem of finding alternative supplies of labour at a time of increasing agro-export production. In 1852 effective action to start the building of railways was taken. As part of efforts to improve conditions in the sugar and coffee sectors, several concessions were approved. From the middle of the century through to the 1870s, the expansion of coffee cultivation and railway construction were closely inter-related phenomena in the southern provinces of Brazil and shaped the debate about labour. The 1870s was a key decade. First, these years witnessed a `railway mania' - a great fever of building new lines and branches in various regions of the country, especially in the new coffee districts. Second, concern about the labour question intensified with the approval in 1871 of the Rio Branco Law which provided for the gradual emancipation of slaves. From then until 1888, when slavery was finally abolished, several policies were implemented trying to solve the problem of labour supply and to set new patterns of labour relations. This involved the arrival of thousands of immigrants in the 1880s, imported with government aid, to support the near-continuous expansion of coffee cultivation.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

6617. Distribution Dynamics: Stratification, Polarization and Convergence Among OECD Economies, 1870-1992

Author:
Philip Epstein
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Since the 1980s the debate about economic convergence has dominated empirical work about the dynamics of growth. Economic historians have been attracted, in particular, by stories of club convergence. However, the analytical foundations of most of the work in this area have rested on linear, or more usually log-linear, regression analysis. Thus, the results tend to be dependent on a conditional average in which time is the dominant player. This is surprising as space, and issues of distribution, have long been important to both theorists and historians. A notable exception to the 'regression school' has been the work on distribution dynamics pioneered in a series of papers by Danny Quah (1993, 1996, 1997). He believes that only by considering the issues of growth and distribution simultaneously can we understand their underlying dynamics. He has argued, for example, that there is no simple causal relationship between the concepts of β-convergence and σ- convergence and that similar stories of global (or club) convergence may be driven by very different stories of individual economy mobility. This is an approach that should appeal to economic historians (both because it can encompass a rich diversity of individual economy experience and because it emphasises that same diversity). We hope to illustrate this by considering the experience of some of the leading OECD economies since 1870 within an explicit distribution dynamics framework.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

6618. Competition and Innovation in 1950's Britain

Author:
Stephen Broadberry and Nicholas Crafts
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
We find little support for the Schumpeterian hypothesis of a positive relationship between market power and innovation in 1950's Britain even though many economists and policymakers accepted it at the time. Price-fixing agreements were very widespread prior to the 1956 Restrictive Practices Act and they seem to have had adverse effects on costs and productivity. Competition policy appears to have been much too lenient but the productivity problems of British industry at this time are best viewed as arising largely from the difficulties of reaping the benefits of innovation rather than from a failure to innovate per se.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Britain and United Kingdom

6619. From Economic Convergence to Convergence in Affluence? Income Growth, Household Expenditure and the Rise of Mass Consumption in Britain and West Germany, 1950-1974

Author:
Peter Kramper
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The “Golden Age” of post-war European economic growth has witnessed extraordinary changes not only in the economic, but also in the social and cultural outlook of Western European societies. Eric Hobsbawm's statement that “[h]istorians of the twentieth century in the third millennium will probably see the century's major impact on history as the one made by and in this astonishing period” is perhaps a little bit too enthusiastic; but it shows that the “Great Boom” has come to be regarded as a key period on the road to the present-day Western world. It has transformed the countries of the West and has at the same time made them more similar to each other. No matter what European societies were in 1950 by 1973, they were all, in Galbraith's famous.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

6620. Market Integration in the North and Baltic Seas, 1500-1800

Author:
David Jacks
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Ever since the time of Adam Smith, the attribution to foreign trade of the ability to affect the wholesale transformation of the productive powers of an economy has remained a very powerful concept in both economics and economic history. At the heart of this interpretation is the observation that improvements in productivity are generated by the expansion of trade through the spreading of fixed costs and an increasing international division of labour.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

6621. Development History

Author:
N.F.R. Crafts
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This paper discusses some aspects of the changing relationship between the study of economic history and development economics. Forty years ago the subjects seemed to be quite closely linked in the sense that senior figures straddled both areas, the development history of the advanced countries was frequently studied with a view to deriving lessons for development policy and economic historians made big generalizations as to what these were. In the 1990s, things appear to have been very different. There is much less overlap between the fields of development and history, historians have largely retreated from the brash claims of the early postwar generation and less- developed countries have their own well-documented recent history from which to draw lessons. This state of affairs is clearly reflected in the most recent edition of Meier (1995) where the historical perspective on development is still derived largely from Gerschenkron and Rostow.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

6622. Altruism and Imperialism: The Western Religious and Cultural Missionary Enterprise in the Middle East

Author:
Eleanor Doumato, Andrew Porter, Samir Khalaf, Reeva Simon, Elizabeth Thompson, Carolyn Goffman, Hans-Lukas Kieser, Jeremy Salt, Ruth Kark, Paul Sedra, Michael Zirinsky, Mahmoud Haddad, Linda Herrera, and Eleanor H. Tejirian
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Middle East Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
The Western missionary enterprise in the Middle East, while in theory altruistic, has generally been considered part and parcel of Western imperialism and colonialism as it evolved in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. However, deconstruction of this enterprise reveals that it was by no means monolithic, nor was it necessarily directly related to or supportive of Western imperial ambitions. This project, of which a conference at the Rockefeller Foundation Conference Center in Bellagio, Italy, in August 2000 is a part, seeks to examine all aspects of the Western missionary enterprise in the Middle East, focusing on its political and social impact on the region as well as on its entanglement with the political and social currents of the Western countries from which it came. Furthermore, the premise of the project is that the missionary enterprise was also the forerunner of the activities of Western nongovernmental organizations in the region, setting the agenda and establishing the categories of these activities in areas including human rights, education, and economic development.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Non-Governmental Organization, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East

6623. Moving Beyond Privatization in Latin America: The Government/Business Relationship

Author:
Robert Grosse
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The outcomes of regulatory policies and regimes in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico since 1990 in the telecommunications, electric power, and banking sectors are explored in this paper. How should governments regulate these oligopolistic industries, once ownership of the sectors has been passed to private hands? How can governments manage these relationships successfully and see that the greatest benefits accrue to the country? What institutional structures can best handle the problems that arise in these situations? The paper addresses these questions and concludes that, while privatizations in these sectors have been predominantly positive in the 1990s, there is still considerable room for more competition.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

6624. Transnational Organized Crime: The Caribbean Context

Author:
Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Were it not for the illegitimate character of their actions, transnational criminals could be lauded as pioneers and visionaries in the age of globalization. They have adopted facilitative and exacting measures to remain competitive, fashioned an enviable organizational culture of efficiency and accountability, and maximized the opportunities provided by globalization. They have been able to innovate, expand, and flourish in a furiously changing international scenario and have done so while being relatively cloaked, so that there is an aura of mystery and ambiguity about their operations.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Caribbean

6625. An Essay on Child Labor in Sub-Saharan Africa—A bargaining approach

Author:
Jens Chr.1 Andvig
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The separation of children from their families have a large number of social and economic aspects. At least the economic aspects are under-researched. At the point of transition of leaving their families somehow the children have to be considered as separate decisionmakers. This is the perspective I adopt in this essay. The question raised is whether poverty, changes in social norms or external shocks to the family system such as the AIDS epidemic, lead the children to prematurely fend for themselves in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

6626. Globalisation and industrial location: The impact of trade policy when geography matters

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper shows how industrial location and welfare depends on “most-favoured nation” (MFN) versus distance-related trade barriers, using a monopolistic competition model with regions located along a “Hotelling” line or on a square plain. Manufacturing production will cluster close to the periphery if transport costs are relatively high, but in central areas if MFN barriers are relatively high. The peripheries will be at a disadvantage, which increases when trade barriers are reduced. When countries or trading blocs are formed, a core-periphery pattern emerges within each of them. While lower transport costs create more centralisation within countries, lower MFN barriers between countries have the opposite effect.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

6627. Patterns of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa—A simple test of the new trade theory with multinationals

Author:
Lars C. Svindal and Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In this study, we present an empirical survey of the patterns of trade and FDI in Africa based on a sample of 28 countries and their transactions with the OECD countries. These patterns are used to test whether the predictions of the new trade theory with multinationals as described by Markusen and Venables (1995,1998) fit the development in Africa. The theory states that multinational production will gradually outgrow trade as countries converge in terms of income, yet our econometric study gives only week evidence supporting such a pattern. Alternative explanations are also investigated,and it is shown that trade barriers, geographical distance, income per capita and access to ocean explain much of the variation in trade and FDI in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

6628. Foreign Ownership, R, and Technology Sourcing

Author:
Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper explores the relationship between domestic R and the inflow of foreign capital through foreign direct investment and foreign ownership. The idea that firms invest in a foreign country in order to more easily absorb the knowledge and technology of foreign firms is tested empirically using a unique firm level data set covering foreign ownership and R for all Norwegian firms over the period 1990 to 1996. The study gives no clear evidence supporting the existence of such a motive behind foreign ownership. On the other hand, the econometric study indicates that foreign investors may try to exploit their technological advantages in the Norwegian market. The results also show that the degree of foreign ownership is more volatile when firms are highly R intensive. We hypothesize that this is due to the fact that large R investments often result in large losses as well as gains to the firms.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

6629. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

6630. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

6631. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Canada

6632. Iran — Investor Inhibitions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

6633. Mexico — Overheating Arguments

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The recommendation reflects a conflict between the bank and the finance ministry over whether or not the economy is overheating. Increasingly, the conflict is being fought in public circles after months of low-key clashes. The uncharacteristic rift between the monetary and fiscal authorities is likely to widen over the final two months of the Zedillo administration, as signs of overheating continue to accumulate. While pressure for a substantial fiscal adjustment is likely to be irresistible when Fox takes over on December 1, concerns are growing regarding his capacity to execute such a policy.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

6634. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

6635. South Africa — Mbeki Leadership

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Although the transition from Nelson Mandela's to Thabo Mbeki's presidency has been marked by continued political stability and conservative economic management, Mbeki's political judgement is increasingly being questioned in several key policy areas. Unless Mbeki succeeds in allaying concerns about his leadership, the stability of South Africa's present political arrangements will be undermined.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

6636. International — Capital Flight

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World

6637. International -- World Economic Propects

Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Official attention has shifted from the need to avert recession towards the problems of managing growth. There is some evidence that higher interest rates have begun to slow the expansion to a more sustainable pace in the Anglo-Saxon economies, but it remains unclear whether the principal central banks have done enough to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable increases in supply. The markets expect any further tightening to be limited, but the current position of the monetary authorities should probably be characterised as a pause in the tightening cycle, rather than the peak.
Topic:
Economics and Markets

6638. United States — Economic Propects

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The US economy is experiencing its longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is the longest of the 32 which have been registered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis since 1854 and is now in its tenth year and 110th month. Moreover, since 1995, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of more than 4.25% -- a rate not experienced since the 1960s. The expansion is consistent with the changing pattern of business cycles, insofar as the average length of economic expansions has nearly doubled from about 2.5 years during 1900-53 to about 5 years in the second half of the century (while the average length of contractions has fallen to less than twelve months). However, even allowing for this transformation, the current expansion seems to be exceptional, both for its duration and its strength. The coincidence of a long and inflation-free expansion with the boom in information and communication technologies (ICT) has sparked a debate about their interdependence.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6639. OECD — Inflation Prospects

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

6640. International: Techno-Stock Troubles

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Europe

6641. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
East Asia

6642. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

6643. East Europe—Bullish Markets

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

6644. Still Dead After All These Years: Interpreting the Failure of General Equilibrium Theory

Author:
Frank Ackerman
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
For years after the Spanish dictator actually died, the mock television newscast on “Saturday Night Live” was periodically interrupted with a “news flash” informing viewers that “General Franco is still dead!” This served both to satirize the breathlessly urgent style of television news reporting, and to suggest that after many decades of taking an absolute ruler for granted, the world needed more than one reminder that he was no longer alive and well. Much the same is true for general equilibrium theory. In the course of its long decades of rule over the discipline of economics, general equilibrium became established as the fundamental framework for theoretical discourse. Its influence continues to spread in policy applications, with the growing use of computable general equilibrium models. It has successfully colonized much of macroeconomics, with the insistence on the derivation of rigorous microfoundations for macro models and theories. General equilibrium theory is widely cited in a normative context, often in textbooks or semitechnical discussion, as providing the rigorous theoretical version of Adam Smith’s invisible hand and demonstrating the desirable properties of a competitive economy.
Topic:
Economics and General Equilibrium Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6645. The Tobin Tax: How to Make it Real. Towards a Socially Responsible and Democratic System of Global Governance

Author:
Heikki Patomäki
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In the 1970's James Tobin proposed a low rate tax on financial transactions of currencies. This tax would make many speculative movements unprofitable and the financial system less volatile and sensitive to daily political news and anticipation of economic policy changes. Consequently, it would create space for more autonomous economic policies of states.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and United Nations

6646. Heterogeneity and Evolution of Expectations: a Model of Currency Crisis

Author:
Jasmina Arifovic and Paul Masson
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
A model of a portfolio allocation between mature and emerging markets is simulated with heterogeneous expectations, imitation, and experimentation. Solutions produce periodic crises. The predictions of the model are compared to a representative-agent, rational expectations model with multiple equilibria.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

6647. Emissions Trading, Capital Flows and the Kyoto Protocol

Author:
Martin Ross, Robert Shackleton, Peter Wilcoxen, and Warwick J. McKibbin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, under various assumptions about that extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance

6648. The Crisis in Asia: An Empirical Assessment

Author:
Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The economies of South East Asia and Korea have been shaken by a financial and economic crisis that has enveloped the region since mid 1997. There are competing explanations for the cause of the crisis however most commentators would agree that a major shock that impacted on the countries has been a dramatic increase in the perceived risks of investing in these economies. This paper explores the impact of a re-evaluation of the risk in the Asian economies focussing on the differential real consequences of a temporary versus more permanent rise in risk. It contributes to our understanding of the possible consequences of the Asia crisis by applying a global simulation model that captures both the flow of goods as well as international capital flows between countries. The real impacts on the Asian economies of a rise in risk perceptions in the model are large and consistent with observed adjustment. However the spillovers to the rest of the world are relatively small because the loss in export demand that accompanies the crisis in Asia is offset by a fall in long term interest rates as capital flows out of Asia into the non-Asian OECD economies. Thus strong domestic demand in economies such as the US induced by the general equilibrium effects of the reallocation of financial capital can more than offset the consequences of lower export growth. The analysis also highlights the impacts on global trade balances reflecting the movements of global capital and points to both potential problems and lesson for policymakers over the coming years.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

6649. The Global Economic Impacts of Trade and Financial Reform in China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and KK Tang
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Despite the setbacks from the recent Asian currency crisis, the ascendancy of Asia as an economic centre of world economic activity is likely to continue into the 21st century. A key issue that will shape the role of Asia, and indeed the shape of the world economy in the 21st century, is the economic development of China. To date China has successfully weathered the currency storm in Asia and continues on a program of economic reform. If anything, the problems of Japan and Korea provide powerful lessons for other countries undergoing rapid economic growth and structural change. These lessons include the importance of a well developed financial sector with lending and investment decisions based on market signals rather than government directives. Whether China can further integrate smoothly into global markets and sustain the fast growth of the last few decades will be a crucial development in the world economy. In this paper, we explore the impacts of continued Chinese economic reform with a focus on the role of international financial flows both in the adjustment within China as well as in the transmission of Chinese reforms to the rest of the world.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

6650. Regional and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare

Author:
Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper explores the impact on economies of trade liberalization under alternative regional and multilateral arrangements: unilateral liberalization; liberalization as part of the ASEAN regional grouping; liberalization as part of the APEC regional grouping; or liberalization as part of a multilateral trade liberalization regime. The paper is based on a Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium model (DIGEM) called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model. It is shown that the long run gains from a country's own liberalization tend to be large relative to the gains from other countries liberalizing although this varies across countries. It is also shown that there is a significant difference between the effects on GDP (production location) and the effects on consumption per capita of the alternative liberalization approaches across countries. The timing of liberalization is also shown to matter. With open capital markets the gains from credibly announced trade liberalization are realized before the reforms are put in place because there is a rise in global investment which raises the global capital stock. In addition there is a reallocation of capital via financial market adjustment. This paper also demonstrates that for some economies, there can be short run adjustment costs to trade liberalization because resources cannot be instantly reallocated across sectors in an economy. These adjustment costs from own liberalization can be reduced if more countries also liberalize. The nature of the dynamic adjustment suggests that other macroeconomic policies may play an important role during the early period of phased-in trade liberalization.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia