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6551. EU—Membership Indecision

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The attractions of the single european currency are likely to draw the Scandinavian countries into the euro-area by around 2003. However, the outlook for United Kingdom accession is complicated by differences in its economic profile compared with the rest of the euro-area, combined with its enduringly euro-sceptical public opinion. These factors are likely to postpone its accession until later in the decade.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

6552. Russia—Debt Rollover

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Moscow

6553. United States -- Economic Slowdown?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

6554. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper begins by offering a quick glance of the Nordic economies and of some aspects of their economic growth performance and natural resource dependence since 1970. Thereafter, it reviews some of the main symptoms of the Dutch disease, and then considers whether these symptoms are observable in some of the Nordic countries in view of their abundant natural resources. The experience of Iceland and its fish seems an obvious point of departure. The paper then discusses the less obvious case of Norway and its oil (and fish!) and, at last, also reviews some possible linkages between forest resources and economic growth in Finland.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Norway, and Dutch

6555. Development Discontinuities: Leaders and Intermediaries in Producers' Associations

Author:
Tito Bianchi
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The development literature considers associations an important economic development tool that allows producers to pursue their economic welfare collectively and through participatory means. This paper comparatively analyses the experience of three associations of agricultural producers in the underdeveloped regions of Brazil and Italy that were successful in this economic development task. Their experience, however, challenges a commonly held view about the participatory nature of associations.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

6556. Resource-Led Growth — A Long-Term Perspective: The Relevance of the 1870-1914 Experience for Today's Developing Economies

Author:
Ronald Findlay and Mats Lundahl
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Resource-Led Growth – A Long-Term Perspective surveys the 1870-1914 experience of growth in resource-rich economies: the so-called regions of recent settlement, some tropical countries and some mineral-based export economies. First, three contrasting stylized views of resource-led development are presented. Thereafter the picture of international trade in primary products and the migration of production factors between 1870 and 1914 is sketched. The third section presents some models that may be used to analyse trade and factor movements in the context of resource-rich (staples) economies and provides some details of the experience of fifteen countries: Canada, the United States, Australia and Argentina among the regions of recent settlement, Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ceylon, Malaya, Burma, Siam and the Gold Coast in the tropical group, and Bolivia, Chile and South Africa among the mineral exporters.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, South Africa, Burma, Chile, and Bolivia

6557. Group Behaviour and Development

Author:
Frances Stewart, Judith Heyer, and Rosemary Thorp
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A very large amount of activity occurs within groups (that is within families, firms, co-operatives, communities or governments). Yet most economic analysis focuses on market transactions between these agents. The purpose of the study is to analyse within group behaviour. Evidence suggests some groups perform well from the perspective of efficiency, equity and well-being, while others perform poorly. The study aims to identify the main causes for these different outcomes, developing a preliminary analysis of modes of group behaviour, and influences on them.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets

6558. Economic Theories of the Household: A Critical Review

Author:
Päivi Mattila-Wiro
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to review the principal assumptions and aspects of the unitary household model and collective models of household behaviour. Empirical studies are presented to assess whether the theories can offer adequate descriptions of household behaviour and to examine the types of policy implications that can be drawn from these. The paper concludes that the models reviewed lack the analytical tools to provide an understanding of the reality of households. Theories are unrealistic and therefore are of little use in the design of policies or projects which endeavour to help people
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets

6559. Inequality in Income and Access to Education: A Cross-Country Analysis

Author:
Daniele Checchi
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In the current debate on the relationship between inequality in income distribution and growth one of the possible link works through the access to education. After reviewing this debate, a formal model shows how the imperfection of financial markets makes educational choices dependent on the distribution of family incomes. This leads to two testable predictions in the analysis of aggregate data on school enrolments: a negative (linear) relation with the Gini coefficient on incomes distribution; and a positive dependence on public resources invested in education and/or on skill premium in the labour market. These predictions are then tested on a (unbalanced) panel of 102 countries for the period 1960-90. The main findings of this analysis are that, once we control for the degree of development with the (log of) per capita output, financial constraints seem mainly relevant in limiting the access to secondary education. However, when considering gender differences, there is evidence that female participation in education is more strongly conditioned by family wealth, starting from primary education. On the contrary there is no clear evidence of a relevant impact of invested resources, but at the tertiary level.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets

6560. Liberalization, Globalization, and Income Distribution

Author:
Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Recent mainstream analyses of changes in income distribution over the post World War II period have concluded that income inequality within countries tends to be stable, that there is no strong association between growth and inequality and that, therefore, poverty is best reduced through growth-oriented, rather than distributive, policies.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy

6561. Wage Reform, Soft Budget Constraints and Competition

Author:
Jian Sun
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the Chinese economic reforms in 1978, there has been a series of effort to reform the labour compensation practice in state-owned enterprises to strengthen the link between pay and productivity. Despite the reforms, however, rapid increases in wage rates occurred in state-owned enterprises. Moreover, although state-owned enterprises have much lower productivity gains than non-state enterprises, they pay substantially higher wages and have faster wage growth.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

6562. The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons and Future Outlook

Author:
Abdur Chowdhury
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992–3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994–5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. One obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such a dramatic reduction in poverty. Given so many years of sustained economic performance the obvious question is: how could events in Asia unfold as they did?
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

6563. The Weightless Economy in Economic Development

Author:
Danny Quah
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Can the increasing significance of knowledge-products in national income—the growing weightless economy—influence economic development? Those technologies reduce "distance" between consumers and knowledge production. This paper analyzes a model embodying such a reduction. The model shows how demand-side attributes—consumer attitudes on complex goods; training, education, and skills for consumption (rather than production)—can importantly affect patterns of economic growth and development. Evidence from the failed Industrial Revolution in 14th-century China illustrates the empirical relevance of the analysis.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China

6564. Hong Kong Update: Winter 1999-2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Lee Kuan Yew, George Hui, and Sunny Kai-Sun Kwong
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
During my yearly visits to Hong Kong over the last thirty years, I was struck by the upbeat, can-do spirit of its people. However troublesome the situation, such as the noisy demonstrations of the imitators of the Red Guards in 1966 and 1967, or the economic downturn caused by the sudden quadrupling of oil prices in 1973, Hong Kong people were not dismayed or despondent. So when I spent a few days in Hong Kong at the beginning of June this year, I was surprised by its completely different mood. The people I met seemed frustrated at finding themselves in a situation where the solutions were not obvious. Much of the present malaise in Hong Kong arises from the problems of a transition that proved more difficult than expected. In part it was because of the five years of the last governor's policies, aggravated by the Asian financial crisis. Until the territory has come through this transition phase it is not possible to make any long-term forecasts on Hong Kong's future.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

6565. The Southern African Development Community: Regional Integration in Ferment

Author:
David Simon and Alexander Johnston
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Shortly before he became President of the 'new South Africa' in May 1994, Nelson Mandela stressed that his country's relations with the region's poorer and weaker neighbours would be characterized by 'sensitivity and restraint'. This declaration of intent was welcome given South Africa's traditional dominance as the hegemonic power during the apartheid era and the resulting crude and at times violent exploitation of its neighbours' dependence, in varying degree, on the Republic's economy for a wide range of goods and services, for transport links and a market for employment. Indeed, South Africa's accession to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 1994 offered the promise of a new deal in regional relations, with the new member acting as an 'engine of growth' and as a cooperative and enthusiastic supporter of purposeful and sustained regional integration.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

6566. Currency Boards or Dollarization — Solutions or Traps

Author:
John Chown
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Currency boards have been suggested for Russia, and adopted elsewhere in eastern Europe. Brazil's fixed rate has had to be abandoned, but Argentina is considering replacing its currency board with dollarization, and suggesting this solution for the rest of Latin America. Fixed exchange-rate regimes (and the crawling peg in Russia) have collapsed in Southeast Asia but Hong Kong, which had a formal currency board, has (so far) survived.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

6567. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1999

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the end of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6568. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1999

Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6569. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1999

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators have paused after strong growth early this year. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6570. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1999

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September. This report merits careful interpretation, but does not change general conclusions drawn from previous releases, which show the economy is in good health: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems must be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics and Health
Political Geography:
United States

6571. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1999

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of 3.0 percent (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems do not seem to be a problem yet.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6572. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 1999

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6573. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1999

Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6574. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 1999

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6575. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 1999

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6576. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 1999

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6577. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 1999

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6578. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 1999

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6579. The Chechen Problem: Sources, Developments and Future Prospects

Author:
Alexandru Liono
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The political, economic and social situation in Chechnya is a matter of concern for all the analysts of the current environment in the North Caucasus. Every day brings about new developments in Chechnya, which can hardly be characterised as encouraging. The more recent events, which culminated with the intervention in Chechnya and the siege of Grozny by the Russian Federal troops in November – December 1999, have raised even more questions about the future of the Caucasus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and North Caucasus

6580. The Tobin Tax: How to Make it Real. Towards a Socially Responsible and Democratic System of Global Governance

Author:
Heikki Patomäki
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In the 1970's James Tobin proposed a low rate tax on financial transactions of currencies. This tax would make many speculative movements unprofitable and the financial system less volatile and sensitive to daily political news and anticipation of economic policy changes. Consequently, it would create space for more autonomous economic policies of states.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and United Nations

6581. Thinking About the Future: Economic Aspects

Author:
Emilio Gerelli
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Studies Center
Abstract:
Building scenarios of the future has been defined "the art of thinking the unthinkable". And in fact the successful author of scenarios must be able to combine both an open and creative mind, and analytical capabilities to envisage different and sometimes counterintuitive combinations of actors, factors and trends. Our author is often also "heroic", since he knows that most probably he will be disproved by facts. However it is worth bravely accepting the challenge of uncertainty, since "illustrating the future by means of scenarios is a way to overcome human beings' resistance to change. Scenarios can thus open mental horizons to allow the individual to accept and understand change, and so be able to shape the world. Scenarios may help in seizing new opportunities ahead as well as avoiding undesirable effects of misconceived actions". In this connection a historian notes: "it is desirable, possible and even within certain limits necessary to forecast our future…However the process of forecasting must be based necessarily on the knowledge of the past".
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

6582. Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Latin America

Author:
William Smith and Roberto Korzeniewicz
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:
The crystallization of the so-called “Washington Consensus” in the late 1980s sparked intense debates regarding the likely social impact of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment. Academic critics and political opponents argued that Washingtonian reforms, and neoclassical economics more broadly, lacked a coherent theory of growth, and were bound to result in long-term negative trends in popular welfare and social inequality. Advocates of neoliberal restructuring, in contrast, while recognizing that market-oriented reforms could lead initially to a decline in output and standards of living, were confident that these reforms eventually would lead to sustainable growth and, as a consequence, greater equality and enhanced social welfare. A decade later we revisit this debate to evaluate recent trends in economic growth, poverty and inequality, and to assess accompanying shifts in the theoretical, policy, and political terrains.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Washington, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

6583. The Political Economy of Energy Taxes, OECD 1973-1995: The Role of Political Institutions, Public Opinion and Ideology (A Pre-Test)

Author:
Svetlana Valerie Morozova
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The paper presents a theoretical cross-national study of energy taxation, concentrating on the heavy fuel oil tax. It theoretically investigates the effects that public opinion, institutional corporatism and left-wing ideology may have on the cross-national variance in manufacturing energy taxes, controlling for the plausible influence of budget deficits, energy import-dependency and deindustrialization. It is hypothesized that in more corporatist nations public opinion supportive of energy conservation, in combination with the Left-wing ideology of governing legislative coalition, will lead to higher energy taxes. Deindustrialization, proxied by the declining employment and output value in/of energy-intensive industries is believed to be responsible for a certain share of energy tax variance in the OECD countries. Finally, it is argued that energy import-dependency brings affects national manufacturing energy taxes.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics

6584. Ukraine: Challenges of the Continuing Transition

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The NIC routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

6585. Northeast Asia: Static but Stable

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

6586. Federalism in Russia: How Is It Working

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This conference was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. John Battilega of the Science Applications International Corporation served as rapporteur. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

6587. Migration, Urbanization, and Social Adjustment

Author:
Michael J. White
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Migration is the demographic process that links rural to urban areas, generating or spurring the growth of cities. The resultant urbanization is linked to a variety of policy issues, spanning demographic, economic, and environmental concerns. Growing cities are often seen as the agents of environmental degradation. Urbanization can place stress on the land through sprawl; coincident industrial development may threaten air and water quality. In the eyes of many observers, rapid urbanization is also linked to problems of unemployment and the social adaptation of migrants in their new urban setting. Cities advertise society's inequalities in income, housing, and other social resources, whether these problems are new or just newly manifest in urban settings. Most of the migration conventionally liked to these urban issues was seen as following a conventional pattern. In this policy brief I raise some issues about the nature of contemporary, migratory behavior, both for our understanding of processes of population redistribution directly, and for understanding some of the implications of that redistribution. Contemporary research is sketching the contours of this migratory behavior and the social adjustment that accompanies it. New research is beginning to shed light on the rate of migrant adaptation, on the connection between origin and destination communities through remittances, and the demographic structure and dynamics of refugee movements.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Migration

6588. Public Housing in Washington, D.C.: With Moscow in Mind

Author:
Vyacheslav Glazychev
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The pitiful state of public housing in Washington, D.C., was well known in 1994, when Vyacheslav Glazychev, president and founder of the Academy of the Urban Environment in Moscow, was here trying to understand the function of the Advisory Neighborhood Commissions and in 1997 when he returned to spend several months as a Guest Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Based on his observations of Washington, D.C. and his extensive experience in Moscow, he found that despite the obvious differences in handling the issue of public housing in Washington, D.C. and Moscow, at least one thing is comparable: in both cities money spent on maintenance and repair has been insufficient while priority has long been given to new construction.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

6589. Challenging Traditional Participation in Brazil: The Goals of Participatory Budgeting

Author:
Pedro Jacobi
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Using the mechanism of “participatory budgeting” implemented in the city of Porto Alegre, Pedro Jacobi analyses a new practice of resource allocation in several Brazilian urban areas. He comes to the conclusion that participatory budgeting is an effective tool in the democratization of the city's management— helping to break old patterns of clientelist relations. According to Jacobi, the new mechanism promotes decentralization of municipal decision-making and increases public control over the city's investment policies.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

6590. The Legacy of Habitat II: Issues of Governance

Author:
K.C Sivaramakrishnan
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Debate on how the Habitat II Conference in Istanbul influenced thinking on issues of urban governance will have to be preceded by some understanding of what was sought and what was achieved at the conference. The Istanbul conference was an international “happening” that began with a series of events before and during the conference itself. Habitat II adopted a Global Plan of Action (GPA) and an Istanbul Declaration (ID) as the official documents of the conference, summarizing the discussions and the outcomes. This paper is limited to the discussions and recommendations of the GPA on the issues of urban governance, which are gathered mainly in its part D, under the title “Capacity Building and Institutional Development.” To what extent does this chapter reflect an understanding of the realities of urban governance? What is the assessment of the new challenges in this regard, in the context of major political, economic, and social shifts across the world in the wake of increased globalization of trade, investment, and information?
Topic:
Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Istanbul

6591. 100 Companies Receiving The Largest Dollar Volume Of Prime Contract Awards - Fiscal Year 1998

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
This report presents summary data on the 100 companies, and their subsidiaries, receiving the largest dollar volume of Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards during fiscal year (FY) 1998. Table 1 lists the 100 companies in alphabetical order and gives their associated rank. Table 2 identifies the parent companies in rank order, with their subsidiaries, and gives the total net value of awards for both the parent company and its subsidiaries. In many cases, the parent company receives no awards itself, but appears on the list because of its subsidiaries. Table 2 also shows what percentage of the total awards each company's awards represent, as well as the cumulative percentage represented by all companies. Table 3 lists the top 100 companies DoD-wide in rank order and breaks the totals into three categories of procurement: Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT); Other Services and Construction; and Supplies and Equipment. Table 4 lists the top 50 companies for each of the Reporting Components in rank order, and by category of procurement.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6592. 100 Contractors Receiving The Largest Dollar Volume Of Prime Contract Awards for Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation - Fiscal Year 1998

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
This report presents summary data on the 100 prime contractors receiving the largest dollar volume in Department of Defense (DoD) awards over $25,000 for research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT) work during fiscal year (FY) 1998. RDT work can include research (basic and applied) and development (exploratory, advanced, engineering, operational systems, or management and support services). Full definitions for each of these categories are provided in Section 235.001 of the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement. These data rank each corporation according to its relative standing. The order of ranking is based on the net value of each contractor's RDT awards. Beginning in FY 1994, the contractors have been ranked by the parent company vs. subsidiaries or divisions of the company as in past issues of this publication. For example, figures for General Motors Corporation include awards to Hughes Aircraft Company. Also, classification of a company as foreign is based on the parent company. Beginning in FY 1996, only the top 100 contractors are listed in this publication. When percentages are used for dollar amounts they are based on whole dollars. Table 1 lists the 100 contractors in alphabetical order, displays the order of ranking for each, and shows how each has been categorized for reporting purposes. The categories are business firm (B), foreign contractor (F), and nonprofit institution (N). Table 2 shows the net value of awards to U.S. business firms. Those firms which qualify as small businesses are further identified by an "S." The net value of awards to each of the firm's reported locations is also provided. Tables 3 and 4 provide the net value of awards to U.S. educational and other nonprofit institutions and foreign contractors. As in Table 1, contractors in Tables 2 through 4 are shown by order of ranking, with their total awards indicated by an asterisk (*). The value of awards to each of the contractor's reported locations is also shown for these tables.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

6593. Prime Contract Awards, Size Distribution

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
This report provides data on prime contract actions (PCAs) over $25,000 awarded by the Department of Defense (DoD) in fiscal year (FY) 1998. For reporting purposes, contracts have been distributed by dollar value into 11 different size categories. The tables provide information on the number of total actions, their net value, and their percentage of distribution, by size, and according to a variety of categories. The categories include Defense Component, type of contract involved, extent of competed procurements, kind of contract action taken, selected procurement programs, and labor standard statutes. Table 1 presents data by individual size category (e.g., $25,000 to $49,999, $50,000 to $99,999) while Tables 2 through 7 present data in cumulative categories (e.g., $25,000 or more; $50,000 or more). The information in Prime Contract Awards, Size Distribution, assists DoD management in projecting the workload that will be required by various proposed projects. For example, using data in this publication, DoD officials could determine that a proposal to review all contract actions of $500,000 or more in FY 1998 would require examining approximately 27,000 transactions, or 11.7 percent of the total transactions as shown in Table 2. These data can also be used to identify trends in DoD procurement, (e.g., to identify which of the various types of contracts were most frequently awarded, in terms of number of contract actions, during FY 1998).
Topic:
Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6594. Prime Contract Award: Fiscal Year 1998

Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
This report presents a variety of current and historical data pertaining to Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards. All historical tables commence with fiscal year (FY) 1988 data. Six categories of data on DoD prime contracts are provided. Data are displayed by type of contractor, by procurement program, by competition, and by type of contract pricing provision. Awards for research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT) are discussed separately, as is the DoD Small Business Subcontracting Program. Amounts in this report are shown for the DoD Agency that awards the prime contracts and not the department or agency that budgets for the supplies or services. In addition, data for the Army, Navy, and Air Force include prime contracts awarded on behalf of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other Federal Agencies, as well as for foreign countries whose Defense purchases are reimbursable. Percentages are derived by dividing the detail line or the subtotal line by the base line designated by 100 percent, unless otherwise noted. Column headings, footnotes, or section narrative are used to identify these exceptions. Indentation is used to provide assistance in recognizing total, subtotal, and detail line information. The data are collected in whole dollars and the totals given in some tables may not add due to rounding. This report includes awards made by Other Defense Agencies (ODAs), which are listed in the Glossary. It also includes tariff or regulated acquisitions under $25,000. It does not include obligations for “in house” work performed at government owned and operated establishments, such as Navy shipyards, Army arsenals, and Air Force research laboratories, except to the extent that such establishments place contracts for supplies and services with industry or other Federal Agencies. The estimated dollar amounts of indefinite quantity petroleum contracts are included in this report, but the number of individual orders written against these contracts has not been included in the totals for procurement actions. For the definition of terms used in this publication, see the Glossary.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

6595. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of December 16, 1999

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.9 billion in October, from $24.2 billion (revised) in September, as exports decreased and imports increased.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6596. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of November 18, 1999

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.4 billion in September, from $23.5 billion (revised) in August, as exports decreased and imports increased.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6597. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of October 20, 1999

Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $24.1 billion in August, from $24.9 billion (revised) in July, as exports increased more than imports.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6598. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of September 21, 1999

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $25.2 billion in July, from $24.6 billion (revised) in June, as imports increased more than exports.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6599. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of August 19, 1999

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $24.6 billion in June, from $21.2 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

6600. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services - As of July 20, 1999

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:
The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $21.3 billion in May, from $18.6 billion (revised) in April, as imports increased and exports decreased.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States