Topic: Economics - CIAO Search Results

1. Recycling Regime, Environment, and Exclusion of Electronic Scrap Workers in Delhi

Author:: Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore
Publication Date:: 11-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: In recent years, the Indian e-waste sector has undergone a process of formalisation through the implementation of E-waste Management Rules (2016), leading to the creation of what I call recycling regime. The upper and middle classes, along with NGOs and industry actors, are frontrunners in thinking about e-waste policies. They were prompted by a twofold motive: the desire for a “world-class”, clean, and pollution-free city; and seizing business opportunities by extracting value from e-waste. Rather than replacing the State, they co-opted the State so that it would legislate to safeguard the environment, and address toxicity and health problems associated with e-waste. Recycling regime relies on formalisation processes embedded in multiple technologies – technicity, capital-intensive facilities, certifications, authorisations, and licences – that work together to exclude the “informal” sector from the e-waste governance system. Recycling technologies act as “technologies of domination” that further contribute to sidelining the “informal” labour of scrap workers or e-kabadis, who as Muslims already find themselves on the margins of society. However, the recycling regime fails to safeguard the environment in the end as e-waste trickles down back to the informal sector via authorised actors.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Globalization, Health, Markets, Poverty, Governance, Law, Urbanization, Emerging States, and Norms
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

2. Trump’s Exit from the Paris Agreement: An Opportunity for the EU to Back South Africa’s Climate Leadership

Author:: Bongiwe Ngcobo-Mphahlele and Darlington Tshuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In his address to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2025,[1] South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa – who currently chairs the G20, the first African leader to do so – outlined a bold and assertive agenda centred on global cooperation, inclusive growth and sustainable development. His address included a renewed call for transparency in the allocation of climate resources and the reform of the global financial architecture that has long been criticised as too rigid to support long-term sustainable development in the Global South.[2]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

3. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:: Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. Macroprudential policies and private domestic investment in developing countries: an instrumental variables approach

Author:: Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the effect of macroprudential policies on private domestic investment using a panel of 87 developing countries from 2000 to 2017. Our instrumental variables strategy exploits the geographic diffusion of macroprudential policies across countries, with the idea that reforms in neighbouring countries can affect the adoption or strengthening of domestic reforms through peer pressure or imitation effects. The findings indicate that the tightening of macro-prudential policies significantly reduces private domestic investment. This effect holds for both instruments targeting borrowers and those targeting financial institutions, and is subject to heterogeneity depending on several economic and institutional factors. The transmission channel analysis highlights that the negative impact of macroprudential policies on investment is primarily driven by a reduction in credit supply and financial inclusion.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Finance, Investment, and Macroprudential Policies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5. Korea’s Strategy for Critical Minerals: Navigating New Trade Rules and Global Challenges

Author:: Cheon-Kee Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the establishment of the GATT in 1947 and the WTO multilateral trading system in 1995, trade liberalization has led to an increase in global trade and the internationalization of production through global supply chains. In recent years, however, as non-trade values including national security, labor rights, and environmental protection have become important considerations, supply chains have become an end in themselves rather than a means of pursuing efficiency. Additionally, major trading partners such as the U.S, the EU, and China have sought to regulate global supply chain by leveraging market access to their domestic markets or critical minerals. The proliferation of such unilateral measures has posed significant challenges, as traditional WTO/FTA trade rules have failed to effectively address these new regulatory dynamics. The increasing compliance costs for companies, stemming from emerging supply chain regulations, are exacerbated by the legal constraints and loopholes in existing international trade frameworks, despite previously promised market access in multilateral and bilateral agreements. Against this backdrop, this Brief reviews the current state of disciplines in bilateral and multilateral trade rules and disciplines, with a particular focus on unilateral supply chain regulations. It will explore the critical minerals sector in light of recent sector-specific agreements and arrangements, including the IPEF Supply Chain Agreement, the U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Agreement or “CMA”, and the EU's Strategic Partnership. While many supply chain issues are emerging in relation to various non-trade values, the critical minerals sector has been the first to see the emergence of more flexible and pragmatic sector-specific agreements and MoUs that depart from the traditional FTA model. This is likely due to the fact that the security of mineral resources is crucial to the competitiveness of domestic industries in many countries. Moreover, the recent trend of resource-owning countries requiring foreign and foreign-owned mining companies to uphold environmental and labor rights during the mineral extraction process has led to the emergence of new ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) obligations. The ability to address these elements in a stand-alone agreements or MoUs specific to critical minerals—rather than within the framework of a traditional FTA—marks a key strength of this approach. The evolution of these agreements, especially in the critical minerals sector, is of particular relevance to Korea. As the country faces increasing reliance on the global supply of critical minerals and is deeply impacted by evolving international regulations, it is crucial for Korea to explore its own strategy for securing access to these resources. This Brief will focus on the development of Korea's critical mineral strategy, while drawing the lessons from international agreements.
Topic:: Economics, World Trade Organization, Multilateralism, Trade, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

6. Recent Global Business Cycles: Characteristics and Implications

Author:: Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The analysis of economic patterns from late 1999 to 2023 reveals significant changes in how the world's economies connect with each other. Our research shows a clear trend toward more varied economic patterns, with regional and country-specific factors becoming more important than global influences. This shift became particularly noticeable after the COVID-19 pandemic, where we saw global factors having less influence on national economies than before. The study's findings have important implications for economic policy making. Countries need to develop flexible approaches that can adapt to both global and regional economic changes. At the same time, they must strengthen regional economic cooperation while maintaining domestic economic stability. The findings also highlight the importance of building better systems for responding to economic crises, while considering both regional and global factors in economic policy decisions. These changes suggest that the global economy is becoming more complex, with different regions and countries showing more independent movement than before. As this trend continues, the ability to balance global, regional, and domestic economic relationships will become increasingly important for maintaining economic stability and promoting growth.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. State Enterprises as Enablers of Economic Cooperation in India

Author:: Kyunghoon Kim
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This Brief discusses the role of state enterprises in India's economy, emphasizing their pivotal contribution to the government's development strategy. It also highlights cases where Indian state enterprises have formed cooperative relationships with global companies, as well as foreign and international development agencies. The Brief concludes with implications for the Korean government and businesses.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Economic Cooperation, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

8. Good Intentions, Better Outcomes: Shifting the Debate About Social Protection and Informality

Author:: James Heintz and Jayati Ghosh
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The introduction of social protections for individuals engaged in paid employment frequently comes up against arguments that such measures would have an adverse impact on employment, reduce access to formal jobs, and result in greater informality. The argument is that, while well intentioned, such policies distort labor markets and generate significant economic costs that either leave some workers worse off than they would have been in the absence of such protection, or the interventions become a drag on overall economic performance, encumbering the process of development. In what follows we critically evaluate such arguments and provide responses to the claim that social protections lead to higher informality. We also consider the challenges involved in providing social protection to different types of workers, including not only those employed by others but specifically the self-employed and unpaid workers.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. India’s Service Sector: New Areas for Future Cooperation

Author:: Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Given the growing significance of the Indo-Pacific region, the strategic importance of India is on the rise. With its considerable population and economic potential, India offers many opportunities for cooperation in various sectors. However, past cooperation between Korea and India has focused on the manufacturing sector. In order to consolidate economic ties be-tween Korea and India and to access the growing Indian market, cooperation in various industries, including services, is necessary. In this article, we will explore key aspects of India’s service industry and policy implications for better cooperation between two countries.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

10. Korea-India Economic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Era

Author:: Jeong Gon Kim, Kyunghoon Kim, Jonghun Pek, Yoo Jin Nam, and Wondeuk Cho
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: With the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the spotlight, India's strategic value has come to the fore. The Korean government has included cooperation with India as a key task under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. This article aims to contribute to the establishment of economic cooperation with India from a medium- to long-term strategic perspective. Accordingly, this article analyzes the strategic changes of major countries towards India and India's response strategies, and the emerging agendas of economic cooperation between India and major countries. Lastly, this article proposes policy directions and key agendas for Korea-India economic cooperation.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: India, Asia, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

11. Japan’s Supply Chain Policy and its Implications for South Korea

Author:: Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This WEB paper analyzed Japan's supply chain policy in line with the implementation of Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act in May 2022, and presented policy implications such as supply chain cooperation between Korea and Japan. First, this paper analyzed the US-led reorganization of the global supply chain and the Japanese government's response to it. In particular, the Japanese government's economic security policy was evaluated from the perspective of how Japan approaches the US-led the global supply chain reorganization. Second, the Japanese government's supply chain policy was analyzed, focusing on the supply chain policy for some critical materials under the Economic Security Promotion Act. Finally, this paper proposed ways for Korea and Japan to cooperate in reshaping the global supply chain led by the United States.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

12. Korea’s Global Value Chain Strategies amid Rising Trade Disputes

Author:: Won Seok Choi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This article explores the challenges and transformations in global economic governance, particularly in the context of China's rise, widening trade disputes, and the retreat of globalization. It discusses the reorganization of global supply chains and their implications for Korea, focusing on the policies of key countries like the United States, the European Union (EU), and China towards stabilizing and reorganizing supply chains, with an emphasis on transitioning to a green industrial structure and improving domestic industrial competitiveness, particularly in the semiconductor and secondary battery industries. Accordingly, this article analyzes Korea's dependency on imports for semiconductors and secondary batteries, noting significant increases in imports and the diversification of import sources. The analysis reveals Korea's high import dependence on specific countries for critical goods and materials, emphasizing the importance of supply chain cooperation with countries that have global export competitiveness.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Governance, Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

13. North Korea’s 2023 Trade with China: Analysis and Forecasts

Author:: Jangho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This article analyzes North Korea-China trade trends and statistics in 2023 to evaluate the extent of North Korea's trade normalization and its performance. North Korea's trade with China increased by more than 120% compared to the previous year as the country declared a COVID-19 Endemic and gradually eased border controls, but did not recover to 2018-19 levels, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19. Imports to China recorded 2.00 billion, 124.1% higher than the 0.89 billion in 2022. North Korea's imports from China in 2023 are estimated to be the maximum achievable given the lack of a full resumption of over-land trade. However, as the negative impact of UN sanctions on the North Korean economy is ongoing, making it difficult to normalize industrial production. North Korea mainly imported raw materials for processing trade (textile and garment raw materials), staple foods (rice and sugar), agricultural materials (fertilizer), and construction materials from China in 2023. North Korea’s exports to China stood at 0.29 billion, up 118.4% from 0.13 billion in 2023. Exports remain at the 16.9% of the level before the tightening of UN sanctions on North Korea, as the country has failed to diversify its products and expand exports of major export items. Exports were highly dependent on specific products, wigs and false eyelashes, a labor-intensive industry, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. In spite of increasing wigs export, North Korea failed to further expand its amount and diversify the export items in the second half of the year. According to the analysis of trade statistics, the main goals of North Korea's 2023 US foreign economic policy are: (1) resuming smuggling trade in textiles and clothing, (2) building irrigation canals in preparation for summer floods, (3) implementing state-led grain distribution, (4) building living houses in a rural area, and (5) increasing metal production for Russian arms exports. Despite the increase in imports from China in the transition to the coronavirus pandemic, it is difficult to say that it has yet led to the recovery of industrial production and economic development. The future of North Korea's trade with the rest of the world in 2024 will be determined by whether North Korea fully opens its borders and improves its relations with China. In 2024, both North Korea's exports and imports are expected to be slightly higher than in 2023. North Korea's exports are unlikely to increase significantly, as North Korea-Russia military cooperation is expected to continue and China is likely to maintain its checks on the growing Sino-Russian alignment. Increased imports will lead to a larger trade deficit, but it will be within North Korea's ability to manage for one to two years.
Topic:: Economics, Border Control, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

14. Armenia’s Critical Economic Reliance on Russia: Can the West Eliminate It?

Author:: Orkhan Baghirov
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Lately one of the most discussed political issues related to the South Caucasus region is Armenia’s attempt to incline towards the West by trying to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence. This has been manifested both geopolitically and geoeconomically. However, Armenia’s potential strategic shift away from its centuries-old political alignment with Russia raises questions about the future of the overall relationship between the two countries. A key concern revolves around the challenges Armenia may face due to its significant economic dependence on Russia. For such a shift to occur successfully, Armenia would have to not only strengthen its political and security ties with the West, but also develop the ability to replace Russia with Western partners in key economic sectors. Thus, the primary objective of the essay is to assess the degree to which Armenia could economically substitute Russia with the West, determining the feasibility of this transition. To achieve this, we should identify the critical level of Armenia’s reliance on Russia across diverse economic sectors and assess the extent to which the West can mitigate this dependency in anything resembling a realistic timeframe, without, that is, critically endangering Armenia’s economic wellbeing.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Armenia, and South Caucasus

15. Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus

Author:: Artyom Shraibman
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy on Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, an inexorably deeper dependence on Moscow, and the glaring absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decisionmaking. This paper proposes a different paradigm for approaching the issue. Instead of passively reacting to Minsk’s actions, the West should broaden its planning horizon and create more specific incentives for Belarus to follow a different trajectory in the future. The overriding goal of a more proactive Western strategy should be the eventual emergence of a democratic Belarus that is no longer fully dominated by Moscow in the military and political realms. Such an ambitious goal would have tangible and lasting benefits for the new European security landscape amid the prospect of a long war in Ukraine. Skepticism in Western policy circles about the viability of such a scenario is entirely understandable. Yet it is not entirely clear whether Western policymakers have registered the significant differences between Russia and Belarus at the societal level and divergent strategic interests of the Russian and Belarusian regimes. At the same time, it is essential for Western policymakers to keep their expectations in check and to avoid an overestimation of their capabilities. The Belarusian crisis cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future by Western efforts alone. Moreover, there should be no illusions about the fact that Belarus, much like Ukraine, holds a special place in the worldview of the Russian ruling elite and President Vladimir Putin personally. The Kremlin’s long-standing obsession with keeping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) away from Russia’s borders plays into the same attachment to keeping the Belarusian regime in as tight an embrace as possible. Therefore, until Moscow either changes its foreign policy priorities under a new leadership or simply becomes unable to keep Minsk under its control, it would be naïve to expect that the Russian leadership will simply offer any Belarusian government greater leeway to shift its geopolitical orientation. At the same time, it is conceivable that a qualitative increase in military assistance to Ukraine and a more effective economic pressure campaign against Russia could disrupt Belarus’s trajectory and make Minsk more amenable to the incentives that the West can already offer. But an overnight breakthrough seems highly unlikely. This paper, therefore, focuses on more realistic recommendations with longer-term effects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

16. Farmer Protests Across Europe

Author:: Nichita Gurcov, Nicola Audibert, and Cristian Vlas
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Farmer demands for more economic protection and less regulation have led to a surge in protests across Europe in the past thre emonths, and especially in the past three weeks. It is the largest wave since the Dutch farmers' protests against their government's plan to cut nitrogen pollution in July 2022.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Protests, Political Movements, and Farmers
Political Geography:: Europe

17. What works for working couples? Work arrangements, maternal labour supply, and the division of home production

Author:: Ludovica Ciasullo and Martina Uccioli
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We document how a change to work arrangements reduces the child penalty in labor supply for women, and that the consequent more equal distribution of household income does not translate into a more equal division of home production between mothers and fathers. The Australian 2009 Fair Work Act explicitly entitled parents of young children to request a (reasonable) change in work arrangements. Leveraging variation in the timing of the law, timing of childbirth, and the bite of the law across different occupations and industries, we establish three main results. First, the Fair Work Act was used by new mothers to reduce their weekly working hours without renouncing their permanent contract, hence maintaining a regular schedule. Second, with this work arrangement, working mothers’ child penalty declined from a 47 percent drop in hours worked to a 38 percent drop. Third, while this implies a significant shift towards equality in the female- and male-shares of household income, we do not observe any changes in the female (disproportionate) share of home production.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Work, and Home Production
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

18. Sanctions have become a tool of first resort. But enforcement needs upgraded and updated resources.

Author:: David Mortlock and Alex Zerden
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Enforcement remains a critical but underresourced element of economic sanctions. The US Congress and the Department of the Treasury should consider updates to its resources, public guidance, and policies to ensure the efficacy of sanctions enforcement as the use of the sanctions policy tool continues to expand. Economic sanctions are often described as the foreign policy tool of first resort. The Department of the Treasury acknowledged this reality in its “2021 Sanctions Review.” Through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Treasury Department administers thirty-eight different, albeit overlapping, economic sanctions programs. With only a few hundred employees, OFAC has a nearly unparalleled national security mandate with oversight of the US economy and many other facets of global economic activities. OFAC develops policies for the use of sanctions, designates sanctions targets like individuals, entities, and jurisdictions, engages with the private sector to promote compliance, and civilly enforces apparent violations by US persons and others. This latter enforcement role represents a critical but often overlooked capability. For instance, the same “2021 Sanctions Review” does not even mention the enforcement function in its assessment. (However, it did seek to ensure that sanctions are “enforceable” in the context of sanctions implementation.) Resource constraints, a lack of attention, and the prioritization of policy crises hamper this enforcement function. In 2023, OFAC only undertook seventeen public enforcement actions, including its largest settlement to date with Binance, a global cryptocurrency exchange. For perspective, the Department of Justice terminated 63,419 civil cases in fiscal year 2022, according to the most recent public data. As the wider interagency continues to rely on sanctions as a critical tool and the United States seeks to expand partner sanctions capacity, US policymakers must fully support the sanctions enforcement function. Strengthening the internal controls for OFAC enforcement improves the rule of law through improved due process and protects OFAC from legal challenges that could existentially undermine its national security mission. OFAC enforcement urgently requires increased budgetary resources and an upskilled workforce from Congress, stronger internal procedures to avoid litigation risks, improved public guidance, and revised enforcement guidelines to promote consistency and improve compliance by industry.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, Transparency, and Enforcement
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

19. The EU Tobacco Tax Structure: Impact on Prices, Revenues, and Smoking Patterns

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Multilateral organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF have made the argument that specific excise taxes for cigarette taxation can provide significant benefits over ad valorem excise taxes. Chief among the benefits they identify are: more stable and predictable government excise tax receipts; a lower administrative burden for tax management and collection; and internalising the externalities produced by cigarette consumption. Across the EU, Member States have been restructuring their excise tax systems to create an increasingly prominent role for specific excise taxes. Between 2010 and 2023, authorities in the EU opted to rebalance towards specific excise and away from ad valorem excise, with the average ad valorem rate across Member States falling from 36.7% to 27.0% of retail selling price (RSP). As a result, in this period the average specific excise burden across the EU increased from 30.9% to 44.5% of total taxation. However, this shift has not been uniform across Member States and the approach to cigarette taxation has diverged. Countries like Denmark and Sweden have moved to an almost total reliance on specific excise taxes. Meanwhile in some Member States such as Italy and Spain, the share of specific excise tax in total taxation has remained very low. In this study, we examine the experience of eight EU Member States that have all taken differing approaches to cigarette excise policy in recent years. In four countries that have rebalanced to achieve a higher proportional use of specific excise taxes since 2010, we found excise tax receipts to have remained stable or increased, despite flat or falling rates of legal consumption. In four countries that have not significantly rebalanced towards specific excise taxes, the results were more mixed. Italy and Spain, notably, have seen a decline in their cigarette excise tax receipts over the period, despite below-average declines in cigarette consumption. Ad valorem-based excise tax systems do not provide as strong an incentive for manufacturers to raise prices as a specific excise-based system would. In addition, ad valorem dominated excise tax systems can encourage downward substitution from consumers for cheaper alternatives, exacerbating the decline in excise tax receipts.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Tax Systems, Tobacco, Price, and Revenue
Political Geography:: Europe

20. The Environmental Impact of Digital Over Cash Payments in Europe

Author:: Jan Sun, Hannah Zick, and Johanna Neuhoff
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: On behalf of the European Digital Payment Industry Alliance (EDPIA), our report on “The Environmental Impact of Digital over Cash Payments in Europe” seeks to evaluate carbon emissions across payment systems at point of sales. Businesses and governments are becoming more and more focused on mitigating the effects of climate change through processes and policies, and the payment sector is no exception. As digital payments become more prevalent—with the number of non-cash payments doubling from 21% in 2016 to 41% in 2022 in the euro-area alone according to the European Central Bank—there has been a growing need to understand the environmental effects of these shifting preferences. Although some evidence indicates that digital payments have a smaller environmental footprint than cash payments, there has not been a comparative lifecycle assessment done between the two of them. In addition, given large differences across geographies, the actual impacts of payment methods at points of sales (POS) can differ widely from country to country. To examine this issue, this study utilises a Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) following the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) guidelines. A method Oxford Economics has added to its toolkit, the LCA is a holistic approach that appraises environmental impacts across stages of a product lifecycle on a variety of categories. Which, in this case, includes a total of different 18 categories including for example, global warming potential, mineral resource scarcity, and ionizing radiation. This cradle-to-grave approach is used for three purposes: Firstly, to consider the separate processes of cash and non-cash payments in order to isolate the environmental “hotspots” and their respective impacts. Secondly, to understand the processes in three countries with different rates of payment adoption—Italy, Germany, and Finland—for comprehensive results. Thirdly, to compare the environmental impact of cash and non-cash payments at point of sales in the different impact categories.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, Radiation, and Digital Payments
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, Germany, and Italy

21. Decoding China’s Technology and Industrial Policy: Seven Terms You Need to Know

Author:: Barry Naughton, Siwen Xiao, and Yaosheng Xu
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: China’s technology and industrial policy programs have grown in scope and intensity since 2020, but the vocabulary used to describe them is vague and often misleading. This policy brief decodes seven essential terms and shows that they have concrete and complementary meanings. When understood in concert, they reveal the establishment of a large-scale, government-directed program of mission-oriented research, development, and application. Together these terms outline a substantial expansion of the Chinese government’s direct role in organizing economic activity, and hint at some of the limits of that expansion.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Research and Development, and Terminology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

22. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:: Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

23. Navigating the treacherous political economy of structural reform

Author:: Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry, and Chris Papageorgiou
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We examine the economic and electoral effects of liberalisation measures using newly-constructed databases on structural economic reforms and the outcome of democratic elections since the 1970s. The data shows a remarkable slowdown in the pace of liberalisation in both advanced and emerging market and developing countries since the 1990s. A debate has emerged about the causes of this slowdown, including the possibility that reforms do not deliver the economic benefits that advocates, including the multilateral financial institutions, trumpeted. Some have pointed to the fact that the current and previous United States administrations have abandoned neoliberal policies in favour of more government intervention in the economy, and the effect has been globally contagious. Our empirical analysis suggests that the growth dividend from liberalisation is economically and statistically significant, but it emerges only slowly over time. Because of this delay, liberalising reforms are costly to democratic incumbents when they are implemented close to elections. Reforms may generate immediate concentrated losses, which elicit an electoral backlash, especially when the aggregate gains are only visible several years after the reform’s implementation. The electoral penalty is also sensitive to overall business-cycle conditions, being much larger when an economy is in recession. Electoral effects also differ depending on the type of reform. Notably, financial reforms generate more perceptible growth-equity trade-offs than real-economy reforms, especially when implemented during weak economic conditions. The political economy of reform is treacherous. To avoid adverse electoral effects, timing reform early in the electoral term and when business-cycle conditions are favourable is critical. So too is avoiding reforms that generate large distributional costs in the face of small aggregate gains (an adverse growth-equity trade-off). Focusing on these considerations is critical to reinvigorate support for structural reform.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Reform, Elections, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Who Governs? 50 years since the February 1974 election

Author:: Robert Saunders
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: 50 years ago this month, Prime Minister Edward Heath called a general election. With severe economic problems including the quadrupling of oil prices, a particularly fierce miners’ strike and the introduction of a three-day week, Heath addressed the nation, telling the electorate that they had to choose between ‘a strong Government which has clear authority for the future to take decisions which will be needed’ and one that ‘abandons the struggle against rising prices under pressure from one particularly powerful group of workers’. The result was a monumental moment in British political history – the first hung parliament since 1929 – and, arguably, as Alan Bancroft suggests, consigned the ‘post-war settlement’ to the ‘intensive care unit, ultimately leading to its demise in 1979’. To mark this significant anniversary, the Edward Heath Academic Forum – a new academic network to encourage study of the politics of the 1970s, and Heath’s contribution to British, European, and global politics – held its first public event at Queen Mary University of London. Dr Robert Saunders as well as Lord Butler (Private Secretary to the Prime Minister, 1972-74) and Lord McNally (Political Advisor to James Callaghan, 1974-76, and Head of Political Office at 10 Downing Street, 1976-79) revisit the campaign, the Conservatives’ struggle to sustain the focus on ‘Who Governs?’, Heath’s efforts to form a coalition with the Liberals, and the eventual formation of a minority Labour government.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, Domestic Politics, Prime Minister, and Edward Heath
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and North America

25. Nobody wins unless everybody wins: The Coles review into the sustainment of Australia’s Collins-class submarines

Author:: Andrew Davies
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In 2003, Australia became the proud owner of the last of six new-build Collins-class submarines. Less than a decade later, the fleet was in a poor state of repair, and at times only one or two of the boats were available to the Royal Australian Navy. This account by Andrew Davies explains how the situation was remediated by bringing in a team of highly experienced naval professionals to take an uncompromising look at the arrangements in place to manage a vital national defence asset. Despite a public perception that the submarines were inherently defective, the problems were in fact almost entirely due to dysfunctional and often rancorous organisational dynamics between the key players. In the space of just a few years, and with remarkably little required in the way of additional funding, the situation took a dramatic turn for the better. As with earlier ASPI case studies on defence projects, Nobody wins unless everybody wins is designed to help those in Defence, industry and parliament and other interested observers to better understand the complexities of the business, all with the aim of improving how Australia equips and sustains its defence force.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Defense Industry, and Submarines
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

26. The cost of Defence: ASPI Defence budget brief 2024-2025

Author:: Bec Shrimpton
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Australia needs to spend more on defence—and it needs to do so immediately. The strategic imperative has been firmly established in the government’s own major defence documents. The Albanese government and the Coalition opposition agree that we are in the gravest geopolitical period in generations and this is only going to intensify. But as the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s latest Cost of Defence report finds, the rhetorical urgency is not being matched by action in the form of defence investment. The May budget is the latest demonstration of this mismatch, lacking spending for swift increases in capabilities that the Australian Defence Force would need if our region were to deteriorate quickly. In particular, this year’s budget priorities are not directed towards strengthening the Australian Defence Force’s ability to fight in the next decade. This is not doom-mongering; the government has acknowledged that the warning time before any conflict, which had long been set at 10 years, has shrunk to effectively zero time. We have war in Ukraine and the Middle East, aggression and increasingly dangerous and unprofessional behaviour from China causing instability and confrontation in the South China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait, erosions of the rule of law and revisionist agendas from authoritarians. Instability is heightened by foreign interference, economic coercion and artificial intelligence-enabled dangers such as cyber attacks and disinformation. If war were to break out at any time in the next 10 years, our military would essentially fight with the force it has today. Based on current resourcing, nothing significant will change over the decade. Most of the major new capabilities in the government’s defence investment blueprint are two decades away from being fully fielded. That blueprint does contain some shorter-term enhancements, but these will not be fielded until the 2030s. The welcome $5.7 billion in new defence spending over the four-year forward estimates period is devoted to just three priorities: the AUKUS submarines, the next fleet of surface warships and investment in long-range strike, targeting and autonomous systems. But two thirds of this funding doesn’t arrive until 2027-28. The relatively impressive longer term plan leaves us vulnerable in the immediate period ahead. More money immediately is not a silver bullet, and ambition must be balanced with how much Defence can actually spend each year. But the nation’s security requires a two-pronged strategy of enhancing our existing force to meet threats within the decade while investing in long term capabilities. Other countries are furiously pursuing new capabilities that can be put into action quickly—such as creating masses of small drones and prototyping and developing new technologies. We talk about technology and asymmetric advantage—playing to your strengths and finding effective means to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses–yet we lack a credible pathway to bring them into operation to bolster the force we have today. Over the longer term, the picture starts gradually to improve. The $50 billion in additional spending over the next decade is an important commitment, even if far away. The plan for a complete recapitalisation of the surface combatant fleet will eventually give us the biggest and most capable navy Australia has had since World War Two. But, so far, we are failing to grasp the opportunity to link our traditional large platforms such as submarines and warships to more modern developments in warfare—drones and various small uncrewed and smart capabilities. AI, robotics, electronic warfare and space capabilities remain aspirational, without any pathway for inclusion and integration into a truly focused force capable of meaningful deterrence and warfighting. That is why it is so important to realise AUKUS Pillar II, which is dealing with these capabilities. It’s easy to criticise; harder to do. All governments are grappling with tight budgets amid competing demands and the unremitting expectations of voters and taxpayers. As a nation, we need to accept the need for higher defence spending. Hoping that conflict won’t come is not a viable strategy. If we are prepared for war, we have a better chance of deterring and hence averting it. Europe is living that lesson now, having put all hope in the judgment that global trade and economic entanglement would bring security. Now it is clear that military investment is imperative to deter war or best prepare nations for it. The government has a vital responsibility to speak plainly to the nation about the geopolitical risks and the possibility of conflict. We need to grasp the challenge that is in front of us today, not in three or five years’ time. Otherwise, we risk delivering on Macarthur’s famous two word warning: “The history of failure in war can almost always be summed up in two words: “Too late.” Too late in comprehending the deadly enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.” Why take the risk of only acting after a crisis and saying better late than never? The world in turmoil demands we act in real time to both deter crises and be best prepared for them.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Budget, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

27. A Subdued Environment and Missed Opportunities

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Chinese diplomacy toward the Korean Peninsula in late 2023 sputtered forward, driven more by a calendar of bilateral anniversaries with North Korea and multilateral gatherings involving South Korea than any sense of strategic purpose. Both relationships seemed preoccupied with off-stage developments such as the September summit between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin and the momentum of US-Japan-South Korea trilateral relations, rather than any inherent dynamism of their own. Still, regular Sino-North Korean bilateral exchanges ahead of the 75th anniversary of the bilateral relationship and Sino-South Korean bilateral economic dialogues provide opportunities to overcome resistance and sustain progress in the face of deepening major power rivalries. Senior-level dialogues between China and North Korea occurred on North Korea’s 75th founding anniversary in September, with the visit of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong to Pyongyang, a visit that occurred against the backdrop of the second US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group meeting, North Korea’s first successful indigenous satellite launch, and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong Ho’s visit to Beijing. Meanwhile, ministerial and working-level economic dialogues on issues such as supply-chain stability, export controls, and trade facilitation continued between China and South Korea, punctuated by a notable bilateral exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in late September on the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou. But these exchanges did not generate the traction necessary for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to have substantive bilateral meetings with President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco in November. Bilateral and trilateral foreign ministerial meetings in Busan between South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and counterparts Wang Yi and Kamikawa Yoko—the first in four years—failed to generate sufficient momentum to set a date for the resumption of China-Japan-South Korea summitry. Instead, the resumption of China-South Korea or China-Japan-South Korea summitry will depend on developments in 2024.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Dialogue, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and North Korea

28. Beijing Moderates Criticisms Selectively

Author:: Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Beijing in this reporting period moderated often shrill rhetoric of the past two years criticizing Joseph Biden administration advances and regional governments cooperating with the US. Emphasizing China’s positive contributions to regional economic growth, Beijing stressed its flexibility, said to be different from Washington in not pressing regional states to choose between the US and China, even as it demonstrated ambitions to develop a new regional and global order favorable to itself. Nevertheless, glaring exceptions included egregious pressures to compel deference to China’s claims in the South China Sea, harsh criticism of the Philippines and Japan cooperating closely with the United States, as well as authoritative foreign policy statements giving regional governments little choice between two paths forward: cooperation with an avowedly beneficial China or America’s purported exploitative, divisive and destructive initiatives. Regarding the Philippines, an unprecedented show of support by the US for the territorial claims of its treaty ally resulted in an equally unprecedented pushback from Beijing.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

29. Mitigating the Political Cost of Financial Crisis with Blame Avoidance Discourse: The Case of Turkey

Author:: Büşra Söylemez-karakoç
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: How do centralized governments mitigate the political cost of severe financial crises? The economic voting scholarship has established that the clarity of responsibility, i.e., government accountability for economic conditions to the mass public, is a necessity for electoral reward or punishment for economic performance. On the one hand, political centralization, which reduces the number of veto players, may increase the visibility of the role of the executive in policy success or failure. On the other hand, it allows an uncontested blame avoidance discourse, especially when accompanied with democratic backsliding. Furthermore, the recent backlash against globalization has enabled blame shifting to international actors in many countries. Against this theoretical framework, we comparatively analyze the responsibility attribution discourses for the 1994, 2001, and 2018-2022 financial crises in the statements of incumbent presidents, ministers, and parliament members of Turkey. We find that while blame avoidance discursive strategies have been attempted in all three cases, the responsibility attribution for the 1994 and 2001 crises mostly targeted the executive. In contrast, for the ongoing crisis, the responsibility discourse is dominated with blaming international political economy factors, creating ambiguity, and targeting domestic non-governmental actors.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Politics, Financial Crisis, Voting, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

30. Between State Capitalism and Economic State Craft: China INC.

Author:: Sadia Rahman
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: China’s economy underwent regulatory, structural as well as spatial makeovers since the increase of opening up and reforms in 1978. Intermittent policy interventions have been implemented by the Chinese state to ensure that the economy plays a vital role. Relatedly, the Communist leadership’s economic perspective was shaped by two key attributes: ideology and functionality (pp. 8, 11, 42, 119, 148, 313, 314). From an ideological perspective, the legacy of reforms was as crucial as the equitable principle of Communist rule in China, as both ensured the party’s survival and its control over the state. From a functional perspective, the state’s performance remained an essential indicator for China to achieve economic growth and improve the living conditions of its people. In his book, Between State Capitalism and Economic State Craft: China INC, China expert Aravind Yelery captures the systemic reflections of these transitions, mapping how the state fused growth and encouraged further opening to help China manifest its rise. The book delves into China’s growth models examining how these contradictions are ‘chosen ones’ and how China aims to rally its economic statecraft globally. The central crux is the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) authority retention over the economy by preventing the state from giving up control over important sectors and industries. State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) played a vital part in achieving this goal in China’s economy, allowing the CPC to control governance. Thus, the chapters are significantly interconnected enlightening on the ascendancy of capitalist approaches in the CPC, exploring how China managed to defy the decline experienced by previous communist regimes. The explanation of SOEs is presented as a key factor in establishing effective domestic economic controls, ultimately enabling China to exert its dominance in global economic affairs.
Topic:: Economics, Regulation, and State Capitalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

31. A Renewed Philippine-United States Alliance

Author:: Julio S. Amador III and Lisa Marie Palma
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Biden administration should keep in mind that domestic politics bears considerable implications for the alliance. Regarding economic relations, the United States needs to remain committed to policies that diversify supply chains and create opportunities for business and investment projects in the Philippines.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Investment
Political Geography:: Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

32. Australia and the Resilient Pacific Islands

Author:: Andrea Gleason
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Australia is committed to delivering at least AUD 700 million in climate finance to the Pacific and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure across the region, including through the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Infrastructure, Climate Finance, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Australia and Pacific Islands

33. Enhancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific through Sub-Regional Initiatives: The Case of the BIMP-EAGA Initiative

Author:: Hafiizh Hashim
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Hafiizh Hashim, Head Consultant at Sociable & Co. and Assistant Lecturer Universiti at Brunei Darussalam, explains that "[g]reater US engagement in the BIMP-EAGA [a subregional grouping encompassing states and subnational jurisdiction in eastern Southeast Asia] could deepen US-ASEAN relations" and "find convergence between US and ASEAN Indo-Pacific frameworks."
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

34. Pacific Perspectives on the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:: Joe-Silem Enlet
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Joe-Silem Enlet, former Consul General for the Federated States of Micronesia and current PhD Student at the University of Rhode Island, explains that "[t]he Pacific and its ocean people’s heritage need to be featured more prominently in the US Indo-Pacific strategy."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economics, and Heritage
Political Geography:: United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Micronesia

35. The US Should Enhance Economic Engagement with Taiwan

Author:: Min-Hua Chiang
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Min-Hua Chiang, East-West Center Adjunct Fellow and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub, explains "Further strengthening Taiwan’s economy will make it more capable of bearing the financial burden of defending the island against a Chinese invasion…," and this imperative is compounded as Taiwan is “a critical player in America’s competition with China in the global semiconductor industry.”
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Science and Technology, Leadership, Regional Economy, and Economic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

36. The US-India Clean Energy Partnership and Quad Provide Overlapping Pathways to Produce Clean Energy

Author:: Nischal Dhungel and Sethuram Senthil Kumar
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Nischal Dhungel and Mr. Sethuram Senthil Kumar, Consultant at the World Bank Group and Energy Engineer at both TRC Companies, Inc. and MCFA, respectfully, explain that "Robust partnerships with the United States, strategic cooperation within the Quad framework, and collective efforts across the Indo-Pacific region drive India's transformation in the energy sector."
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Energy
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Nepal, North America, and United States of America

37. US Perspectives on Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic and Roles for Partners

Author:: Rebecca Pincus
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Rebecca Pincus, Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, explains that "The development of Russia’s Arctic hydrocarbons is dependent on foreign investment and advanced technologies; as the West has withdrawn from Russia, China is an important, if imperfect, substitute..."
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

38. South Korean Perspectives on China-Russia Collaboration in the Arctic

Author:: Young Kil Park
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Young Kil Park, Research Fellow at Korea Maritime Institute, explains that "While the immediate impact of China-Russia collaboration in the Arctic on South Korea is limited, it remains wary of the long-term implications for its economic and security interests."
Topic:: Security, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Arctic

39. Rise of Economic Nationalism in Emerging Economies and the Influence of Elections

Author:: Michio Ueda
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Mr. Michio Ueda, President of Geopolitics & Strategy and Visiting Lecturer University of Tokyo, examines "the intersection between economic nationalism and recent elections in Indonesia and India" and finds that "industrial policy is not a significant point of political contention" and elections "serve as an opportunity to gain legitimacy for policies supporting economic nationalism."
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Nationalism, and Elections
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, India, Asia, and United States of America

40. The Australia-US Alliance from a Thai Perspective: An Unbreakable or Unpinnable Partnership?

Author:: Jittipat Poonkham
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Dr. Jittipat Poonkham, Associate Professor of International Relations at Thammasat University, argues that "AUKUS, as well as the Australia-US alliance, seems to be an “unpinnable” alliance in the sense that it cannot be firmly pinned down in Thailand’s strategic mindset."
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Partnerships, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:: Australia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

41. Skimming the East African Community Regional Force in the Kivu: Another Test Case of ‘African Solutions to African Problems’

Author:: Jean-Marie Kasonga Mbombo
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Regional integration is premised on the principle of subsidiarity enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations Organisation which empowers regional bodies to resolve conflicts in their jurisdictions (Chapter 8, Article 52). It implies cooperation among states sharing a geographic proximity. In Africa, such regional organisations include the Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS), Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Common Market for East Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC), and Southern African Development Community (SADC) to name but a few. However, the end of the Cold War witnessed the rise of intrastate conflicts worldwide, which many analysts associated with donor fatigue toward aid-dependent states (Thomas and Mazrui 1992; Bayart 2009; Bates 2008; Solomon 2015). These new wars of the 1990s were more pronounced in resource-rich countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kaldor 2006; Collier 2008). As a result, many economic communities established relevant protocols to boost regional integration and foster peace on the African continent: ECCAS Protocol of Peace and Security; ECOWAS Protocol relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping, and Secu-rity (1999); SADC Protocol on Politics, Defence and Security (2001); EAC Protocol on Peace and Security (2013).
Topic:: Economics, Regional Integration, Regional Organizations, and East African Community (EAC)
Political Geography:: Africa and East Africa

42. The Motives for Chinese and Western Countries’ Sovereign Lending to Africa

Author:: Eckhardt Bode
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper is one of the first to show systematically that the motives for sovereign lending to African countries differed considerably between China and Western countries during the last two decades. While Chinese lending mainly served its own economic or geopolitical objectives, which is well-known from the existing literature, Western countries’ lending also pursued objectives that appear to be at odds with their self-interests but whose precise nature is not yet well-understood. Using a new, da-taset on loans from China, Western countries and multilateral organizations to African countries, I empirically examine a broad variety of potential motives, aim at separating the motives pursued by the national governments from those pursued by their lending agencies, and employ an estimation strategy with increasingly complex fixed effects that yields additional interesting insights into the specificities of the motives.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, and Sovereign Lending
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Global West

43. 2014-2024: A Decade of Sanctions and the Strengthening of Russia’s Financial Sovereignty

Author:: Alexander Turov
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The summer of 2024 has been extraordinarily hot. Climatologists say the average temperature may exceed median values for the entire history of observations. But it is already clear that the political barometer has reached its peak this year, which is certainly having a direct impact on international relations and the global economy as a whole. The past months following the triumphant conclusion of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which marked the beginning of the collapse of the neocolonial system of global economic relations, and subsequent significant events in international affairs have confirmed Russia’s clear course toward financial sovereignty. For more than a decade now, that course has been pursued by the West, which has become unfriendly in a fairly short historical period. Yet in previous periods of our country’s history – the building of socialism, communism, advanced socialism, perestroika, and finally liberalism – the West actively used at an affordable price our fuel and raw material resources, which formed the basis of the Western economy and consumer society. The scientific achievements of our scholars also contributed to common global progress, as evidenced by the numerous Nobel Prizes they were awarded. So why, after three decades of euphoria based on the development of the market economy and the liberalization of everything, both necessary and unnecessary, has Russia once again been fenced off by NATO’s walls and subjected to economic sanctions, which essentially amount to an economic blockade? This happened before, during the early days of the young Soviet Republic, but the blockade lasted less than a hundred days – from October 1919 to January 1920 – because the level of understanding of global economic ties that formed the basis of politics and diplomacy among the old Western leaders was far higher than it is among today’s leaders, who seem more inclined to discuss issues concerning minority orientations than to concern themselves with the well-being and pressing needs of the majority.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Sanctions, Economy, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

44. Business & Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This report examines the relationship between a country's economic performance and its level of peacefulness. The key finding is that peace serves as a reliable predictor of a country's future macro-economic trajectory, creating a business environment that provides superior returns to global averages. This represents a valuable insight for informing strategic investment decisions and offering a multitude of applications for businesses and fund managers, including in the design of financial investment products. For corporations it can help to guide investment decisions into markets with lower risk and stronger growth potential.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Macroeconomics, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Halo, Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 2024: Advancing a Systems-Based Approach to Understanding and Building Peace

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the operations of societal systems. To this end, this report brings together research conducted by IEP over the last decade and includes two conceptual approaches that are distinct but highly compatible: Positive Peace and Halo. These two concepts guide the organisation’s research, mission, and theory of social change. In addition, the report covers other related work including attempts to measure national intent, predict future substantial declines in peace, and to measure societal shocks and resilience in relation to the ecology.
Topic:: Economics, Peace, Resilience, and Systems Thinking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

46. Positive Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Peace is more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually related to many aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. In addition to being a transformative concept, it is also a social good. When combined with systems thinking Positive Peace is a transformational concept as it envisages new ways of understanding how societies operate and how to develop thriving communities. Toward this end, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) developed the Positive Peace Index (PPI), a statistically derived measure of the factors that create flourishing societies, which is based on eight Pillars of Positive Peace. The concept of Positive Peace as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time, are the focus of this report.
Topic:: Economics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Positive Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. Mexico Peace Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 11th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 1.4 percent in 2023. This was the fourth straight year of improvement, following four consecutive years of deteriorations. However, more states deteriorated than improved, with 15 states improving and 17 deteriorating.
Topic:: Economics, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

48. Global Peace Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. This year it introduces a new measure of global military capability that incorporates military sophistication, technology, and battle readiness into a single measure. The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

49. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific

50. From Carrots to Sticks, to Carrots Again? The EU’s Changing Sustainable Trade Agenda

Author:: Victor De Decker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Although sustainability criteria include references to human, social and labour rights as well as broader environmental concerns, this policy brief will focus on measures related to carbon emission reduction in relation to the Paris Agreement. This policy brief consists of three parts. First, there will be an overview of how Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapters have gained prominence in European Free Trade Agreements. The second part will be dedicated to the autonomous, unilateral EU initiatives the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Corporate Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). To conclude, there will be a brief analysis of how the EU is working within a multilateral setting on the issue of climate change. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a landmark framework renowned for its far-reaching vision encompassing 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. These goals collectively constitute the “universal policy agenda,” aiming to address global challenges and foster inclusive economic growth. Notable among these goals is the promotion of sustainable international trade, identified as a pivotal policy instrument contributing to overarching SDGs. The 2030 Agenda positions international trade as “an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction” while actively contributing to the broader pursuit of sustainable development.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Trade, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

51. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

52. Uganda’s Chess Game in Eastern DRC: With or Without M23?

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Uganda has various economic, political and security interests in Eastern DRC. The latter is for example a vital export market for Ugandan products, and an important source of gold, Uganda’s most important export product. In this situation, a careful tactical game is played, in which Kampala seeks to protect these interests in Eastern DRC – for example from Kigali. This does not only involve a clear engagement with Kinshasa, but to a lesser extent also with M23. This is particularly the case because M23 is expanding (and keeping) its territory; creating an incentive for regional actors to engage with them.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

53. Labor Market Volatility and Worker Financial Wellbeing: An Occupational and Gender Perspective

Author:: Julie Yixia Cai
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: One emerging but underexplored factor that is likely to contribute to group racial earnings disparity is unstable work schedules. This is often detrimental for hourly workers when volatility is frequent, involuntary, or unanticipated. Using data from 2005-2022 monthly Current Population Survey and its panel design, this study follows a group of hourly workers across a four-month period to assess whether labor market volatility relates to their financial well-being, focusing on low-wage care and service occupations as well as female workers and workers of color. The findings are threefold: In general, during economic expansion periods, nonwhite workers often benefit more in terms of wage growth compared to their white counterparts. Second, net of other characteristics, on average, greater volatility is associated with lower earnings, and this is mostly driven by those holding jobs in low-wage service sectors and healthcare support roles. Last, the earnings consequences of volatility vary significantly by the type of low-wage jobs a worker holds and their gender and race, but this is only true when volatility happens in a job. Specifically, when working within the same employment spell, female workers, particularly those of color and those working in low-wage service and care jobs, earn significantly less when facing greater volatility than their male counterparts or those working in non-service, non-care occupations.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Finance, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

54. Monetary Policy and Illiquidity

Author:: Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The discussion of financial stability, and the role of monetary policy, is incoherent because there is very little agreement on what constitutes financial stability (and, by implication, instability) - exchange rate stability, asset price stability, absence of debt default. By implication, there is a gap between the claims of various authors to the general applicability of their respective analyses, and the actual applicability of their conclusions, let alone the usefulness of some of their policy recommendations. The paper argues that the key issue is the regulation of the liquidity of all financial markets, and not just that of the banking system, through the markets for government securities. The paper examines the sources of this liquidity in the financial portfolios of the private sector, and how that liquidity may be managed through the open market operations of central banks and the debt management operations of governments. An implication of this approach is yield curve control and the use of (government) debt management to control the liquidity of the markets. These elements of monetary policy have been neglected in theory and policy since the 1950s.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Liquidity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55. Considering Returns on Federal Investment in the Negotiated “Maximum Fair Price” of Drugs Under the Inflation Reduction Act: an Analysis

Author:: Edward W. Zhou, Paula G. da Silva, Debbie Quijada, and Fred D. Ledley
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 contained landmark provisions authorizing government to negotiate a “maximum fair price” for selected Medicare Part D drugs considering the manufacturer’s research and development costs, federal support for discovery and development, the extent to which the drugs address unmet medical needs, and other factors. This working paper describes federal investment in the discovery and development of the ten drugs selected for price negotiation in the first year of the IRA as well as the health value created through Medicare Part D spending on these drugs. We identified $11.7 billion in NIH funding for basic or applied research leading to approval of these drugs with median investment costs of $895.4 million/drug. This early public investment provided a median cost savings to industry of $1,485 million/drug, comparable to reported levels of investment by industry. From 2017-2021, Medicare Part D spent $126.4 billion (median $10.7 billion) for these products before rebates. Excluding two products for diabetes, Medicare Part D spending was $97.4 billion and the total health value created was 650,940 QALYs or $67.7 billion (WTP/QALY=$104K) representing a negative residual health value of -$29.7 billion (before rebates). We argue that a negotiated fair price should provide returns on both private and public investments in these products commensurate with the scale and risk of these investments, with the principal return on public sector investments being the residual health value (net price) accruing to those using the product. These empirical data provide a cost basis for negotiating a fair price that rewards early government investments in innovation and provides social value for the public.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Public Health, Pharmaceuticals, and Public Investment
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

56. Tilting at Windmills: Bernanke and Blanchard’s Obsession with the Wage-Price Spiral

Author:: Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) use a simple dynamic New Keynesian model of wage-price determination to explain the sharp acceleration in U.S. inflation during 2021-2023. They claim their model closely tracks the pandemic-era inflation and they confidently conclude that “… we don’t think that the recent experience justifies throwing out existing models of wage-price dynamics.” This paper argues that this confidence is misplaced. The Bernanke and Blanchard is another failed attempt to salvage establishment macroeconomics after the massive onslaught of adverse inflationary circumstances with which it could evidently not contend. It misrepresents American economic reality, hides distributional issues from view, de-politicizes (monetary and fiscal) policy-making, and sets monetary policymakers up to deliver significantly more monetary tightening than can be justified on the basis of more realistic model analyses.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, Macroeconomics, and Wages
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

57. The Diffusion of New Technologies

Author:: Aakash Kalyani, Nicholas Bloom, Marcela Carvalho, Tarek A. Hassan, Josh Lerner, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the Northeast Corridor. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of related jobs grows, hiring spreads geographically. But this process is very slow, taking around 50 years to disperse fully. Third, while initial hiring in new technologies is highly skill-biased, over time the mean skill level in new positions declines, drawing in an increasing number of lower-skilled workers. Finally, the geographic spread of hiring is slowest for higher-skilled positions, with the locations where new technologies were pioneered remaining the focus for the technology’s high-skill jobs for decades.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

58. Implications of the Inflation Reduction Act for the Biotechnology Industry

Author:: Cody Hyman, Henry Dao, Gregory Vaughan, and Fred D. Ledley
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 contains landmark provisions authorizing the government to negotiate the price of selected drugs covered by Medicare Part D. The biopharmaceutical industry has criticized these provisions as a threat to innovation arguing that reducing future revenues could disincentivize equity investment in biotechnology. This research examines the sensitivity of private and public equity investment in the biotechnology industry to drug price indices and market conditions from 2000-2022. The analysis shows that equity financing and valuation in the biotechnology industry were strongly associated with equity market conditions but not indices of either producer or consumer drug prices. These results do not support claims of an association between changing drug prices and the availability of equity capital to emerging biotechnology companies, which currently sponsor the majority of all clinical trials. These results add to evidence that the IRA may not have a negative impact on pharmaceutical innovation.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Inflation, Innovation, Biotechnology, Public Investment, and Inflation Reduction Act
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

59. Scale and Scope in Early American Business History: The “Fortune 500” of 1812

Author:: Richard Sylla and Robert E. Wright
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Fortune magazine began publishing annual rankings of U.S. corporations by revenue in 1955. Ever since, scholars and forecasters have analyzed changes in the Fortune 500 to help inform their judgments about industry concentration and the relative importance of different sectors of the economy. Unfortunately, earlier data are scarce, especially before the Civil War. Through extensive research we have created a sort of historical “Fortune 500” going back to 1812, ranked by corporate capitalization, which we share here. Numerous insights can be drawn from this dataset, including the historical dominance of the banking and finance sectors and the early importance of manufacturing. Perhaps the larger significance of being able to come up with a Fortune 500 for 1812, though, is the fact that even with a population of only about 7.5 million, U.S. already had more business corporations than any other country, and possibly more than all other countries put together, securing its role as the world’s first “corporation nation.” The ease of incorporating businesses released a lot of entrepreneurial energy that helped to build an ever-expanding economy and by the end of the 19th century, the U.S. would be the world’s largest national economy with tens of thousands of corporations.
Topic:: Economics, History, Business, and Industry
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

60. Setting Pharmaceutical Drug Prices: What the Medicare Negotiators Need to Know About Innovation and Financialization

Author:: Öner Tulum and William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the U.S. government through the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is negotiating with pharmaceutical companies over the “maximum fair price” of ten drugs in wide use by Medicare patients. Over the next few years, the number of drugs whose prices are subject to negotiations will increase. The pharmaceutical companies contend that a “fair” price would be a “value-based price” that enables the companies’ shareholders to capture the value that the drug creates for society. Invoking the dominant “maximizing shareholder value” ideology, the argument for value-based pricing assumes that it is only a pharmaceutical company’s shareholders who make the risky investments that fund drug innovation. Pharmaceutical executives and their lobbyists warn that a lowering of drug prices will reduce investments in new drugs. The purpose of this paper is to enable CMS negotiators to respond to these arguments by showing a) why drug-price regulation is required, given the relation between scale economies in supplying drugs and price inelasticity of drug demand; b) how the pharmaceutical companies with which they are negotiating prices are, in general, not using their profits from unregulated drug prices to fund drug innovation but rather to fund distributions to shareholders in the form of cash dividends and stock buybacks; c) that publicly listed pharmaceutical companies do not typically rely upon investment by shareholders to fund drug innovation; and d) that investment in drug innovation entails “collective and cumulative learning” in foundational and translational research that is both antecedent and external to the investments in clinical research that a pharmaceutical company may make to bring a safe and effective drug to market.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Finance, Innovation, Pharmaceuticals, and Medicare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

61. Good Policy or Good Luck? Why Inflation Fell Without a Recession

Author:: Thomas Ferguson and Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes claims that the Federal Reserve is principally responsible for the decline of inflation in the U.S. We compare several different quantitative approaches. These show that at most the Fed could plausibly claim credit for somewhere between twenty and forty percent of the decline. The paper then examines claims by central bankers and their supporters that a steadfast Fed commitment to keeping inflationary expectations anchored played a key role in the process. The paper shows that it did not. The Fed’s own surveys show that low-income Americans did not believe assurances from the Fed or anyone else that inflation was anchored. Instead, what does explain much of the decline is the simple fact that most workers nowadays cannot protect themselves by bargaining for higher wages. The paper then takes up the obvious question of why steep rises in interest rates have not so far led to big rises in unemployment. We show that recent arguments by Benigno and Eggertson that shifts in vacancy rates can explain this are inconsistent with the evidence. The biggest factor in accounting for the strength in the economy is the continuing importance of the wealth effect in sustaining consumption by the affluent. This arises, as we have emphasized in several papers, from the Fed’s quantitative easing policies. Absent sharp declines in wealth, the continuing importance of this factor is likely to feed service sector inflation in particular.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

62. Russia and China in Central Asia: Potential For Direct Competition

Author:: Maximilian Hess
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: China is now undisputedly the leading economic partner for the Central Asia region, with trade and investment continuing to increase despite Beijing’s economic slowdown. Russia is still the dominant political partner for the region, but its influence and ability to strong-arm Central Asian states has been significantly dented by the impact of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Central Asian states are now able in tacitly criticize Putin’s actions without significant cost and some have taken advantage of the negative impacts of Russia’s international isolation and sanctions to strike beneficial deals, in particular Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Moscow remains content in its position, knowing that the lack of democracy in the region and dominance of elite networks in business and politics mean that regional states are still willing to turn to Moscow for political support, as witnessed in the Kyrgyz Republic in particular since President Japarov came to power in 2020. Tensions between Beijing and Russia have failed to emerge, at least publicly, although if the current trends continue the potential for direct competition may increase.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia

63. US-India Economic Ties: To the Next Level and Beyond

Author:: Aparna Pande
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: This executive summary outlines the key recommendations for policymakers that emerged from deliberations at the Takshashila Institution–Hudson Institute roundtable series “US-India Economic Ties: To the Next Level and Beyond.” Its recommendations are divided into four proposed areas for collaboration between India and the United States: trade and investment, ideas and human capital, technology, and methods and mechanisms.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

64. Understanding and Countering China’s Global South Strategy in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: While the United States and advanced economies and democracies in Europe and Asia are hardening their views of and position against China, the latter is gaining much ground with respect to the developing economies of the Global South. Indeed, China increasingly demands that developing nations base their discourse and policies on approaches that Beijing supports, and many Global South nations are increasingly complying. In other words, a growing number of these nations have started to alter and adopt discourse and policies that better align with Chinese demands and preferences. In the Indo-Pacific, a region that will largely determine the future shape of the global strategic landscape, evidence shows that developing nations are absorbing Chinese norms and preferences and gradually adjusting their thinking and behaviors accordingly. China’s progress vis-à-vis the Global South—especially in the Indo-Pacific—relies on what material inducements and opportunities Beijing can offer. These are most successful when they prioritize rapid development and regime security over liberal economic rules and individual rights. Meanwhile, regardless of where the fault lies, many developing nations do not believe they have benefited as much materially or institutionally from the US-led order as they would like or expect. Members of the Global South often believe the Chinese narrative about the alleged failure of US-led globalization in the post-colonial and post–Cold War periods. For this reason, many in developing economies believe that the interests and values of these nations (or at least those of the regimes in power) better align with what China is promising than with what Washington is delivering. The US and allies such as Japan and Australia have to accept and respond to this reality. This report analyzes and assesses why and how China is making worrying progress when it comes to shaping and influencing the policies and actions of developing economies in the Indo-Pacific. It explains why this is a significant problem for the US and its allies. It then offers some recommendations to counter the Chinese Global South strategy in the region. In offering six recommendations, this report argues that the US can complicate China’s bid for leadership within the Global South, increase the cost and risk for Beijing, challenge and change narratives and discourse favoring China in the Global South, and compete more effectively in the normative and institutional context.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Global South, and Indo-Pacific

65. The Global Impact of China’s Water and Related Environmental Problems

Author:: Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The quantity, location, and quality of water resources in China have long been a distinguishing and even defining characteristic of its history. Records at least as far back as the Ch’in era in the third century BC note the presence of massive waterworks such as irrigation and transportation canals. Terraced rice fields in hilly areas in central and southern China remain iconic images of Chinese civilization. During a contentious and important debate in the mid-twentieth century, geographers and political scientists asked whether the erection of a “hydraulic society” was the explanation for what political scientist Karl Wittfogel identified as “oriental despotism.”1 The German-trained academic argued that the existential requirement to contain endemic flooding and move water from the massive rivers of central and southern China to agricultural areas necessitated an authoritarian system for deploying labor on the scale required for hydraulic engineering projects spanning the continent. Chairman Mao Zedong drily noted at the beginning of his reign that “there is a lot of water in the south and not much water in the north . . . borrowing some water would be good.”2 Mao was soon to unleash the massive workforce of China to renew and expand efforts over the centuries to get water to farmland, control flooding, and reengineer the landscape of modern China. Even without exaggerating the centrality of water issues for historical China, in the modern era water resources are clearly still vital to the country’s economic and ecological health. And hydraulic engineering projects have become increasingly important, both to China’s Asian neighbors and to the global environment. An important new survey of the “ecological history” of modern China concludes that “in growing from impoverished giant to wealthy superpower in seventy years, China has sacrificed whatever resilience its ecosystem once possessed. It has polluted and poisoned its air, water, and soil . . . it has turned forests into plantations and seen deserts expand . . . and has seen lakes come to resemble green paint.”3 Unfortunately, China’s ecological problems have increasingly had negative impacts outside its borders. China’s unprecedented geoengineering to move water from the south to the north is now imperiling both the water resources available downstream from Tibet and the Hindu-Kush mountains, and the economy and ways of living of literally billions of people. China needs ever more land to grow higher quality food and produce higher yields, which frees up land for housing its population. These efforts have led to deforestation not only in China but also in South America and South Asia. And the consistent choice of Beijing’s leadership to drive economic growth at the expense of environmental health has led to dangerous levels of water pollution and poor soil health in China. Environmental degradation has become a growing political issue in China, and its export of this problem has incited considerable international concern. This study explores these issues with a focus on water resources, and it outlines the regional and global impacts of Chinese policy. The study concludes with a discussion of China’s ability and ambition to address these problems as well as how affected countries can help move Chinese leadership toward a more constructive and cooperative effort to develop a solution.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and Water
Political Geography:: China and Asia

66. Tokyo Has an Opportunity to Become a Financial Hub

Author:: Mark Siegel
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: On his September trip to the United States, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attended the United Nations’ annual General Assembly session, and later gave a well-received speech at the Economic Club of New York. His remarks included a comment about how his administration was actively considering a series of policy steps intended to reinvigorate Tokyo’s place in the global financial system; raise Tokyo’s profile as an important financial hub for Asia; and implicitly, regain market share that had been long lost to Hong Kong, and more recently to Singapore. The prime minister’s intentions are laudable, and his suggestions are worth taking seriously. In any case, the proposals under consideration are generally good for financial markets in Tokyo. Cynics will ask whether the horse has left the barn. In a world where continuous face-to-face interaction is less and less necessary for financial transactions, it is fair to ask what it really means to be a financial hub in the twenty-first century. But Japanese officials are not wrong to be concerned about revitalizing Tokyo as an international financial center. Let’s start by acknowledging that the Japanese government—including the prime minister’s office, the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the Financial Services Agency (FSA), and other official bodies—is serious and prepared to take steps to make Tokyo an attractive place for international financial firms to situate their Asian headquarters. After years of asking market participants for recommendations, policymakers have in hand a menu of policy adjustments that make a lot of sense. The list is long, with proposals ranging from offering official business documentation in English, to having special one-stop and fast-track approval processes, to adjusting tax law. Adjustments to tax law are a major issue: for example, the creation of a temporary tax resident status, relaxation of exit tax rules for foreign nationals, and adjustment of tax rules related to the transfer of overseas assets are constructive, long-standing suggestions. Similarly, adjustments to immigration rules related to foreign domestic workers would make it easier for expats to replicate some of the lifestyle benefits that they enjoy in other areas of East Asia.1 Some of the proposals are easy-to-implement, low-cost, measures that would make life less difficult for foreign firms and expats who want to make Tokyo a regional base. And some of them (e.g., major changes to financial sector law and regulation) are harder to imagine, but possible. The three following observations can be made. First, essentially all of the world’s major financial centers of the twentieth century had common law–based legal and regulatory systems. Japan, like France, has a civil law–based system. This difference matters. Both systems function smoothly in the operational sense, but international finance has been dynamic precisely because it rests upon a legal framework that tends to be permissive with guardrails, as opposed to restrictive with an only-allowed-with-permission structure. The point here is not to litigate the virtues and failings of the world’s two most prominent legal systems. The point is that the Japanese government should be honest with itself about the legal and regulatory norms that it collectively thinks of as Japanese, in the context of attracting foreign financial firms to Tokyo. The right kind of policy shifts could be transformative. That said, from a political perspective, some of them will appear to be very challenging. Second, timing matters, and now may be the right time to take policy risks; a window of opportunity may be closing. The reabsorption of Hong Kong into the People’s Republic of China that started under Carrie Lam is now well advanced, and the city has gone from being the preeminent regional hub for Asian finance to being something much less. It continues to lose vitality. A city that had Anglo law with Chinese characteristics (and geography) is now a different place, having adopted Chinese rules with a superficial Anglo form. That transformation has been an unhappy experience for the cosmopolitan residents of the former crown colony, but it is an opportunity for competing financial centers. Singapore, to pick the obvious example, has benefited from Beijing’s heavy-handed approach to Hong Kong. With common law already in place, an existing and well-developed financial community, and not-dissimilar geographic advantages, Singapore is a natural option for regional headquarters and staff as the Hong Kong business environment deteriorates. But Singapore is physically smaller than Hong Kong, and if the latter occasionally felt like the Chinese version of the financial Wild West, the former feels more like a very buttoned-down, engineered community. So while some of what had been Hong Kong’s centrality, and commercial verve, has moved slightly west, a lot of it has been dispersed far and wide. Dubai has picked up some of the slack, and no doubt some of the business has moved back to London and New York—maybe as an interim step, or maybe for good. There is no preeminent Asian financial hub today. It is still in play, and that is a window of opportunity. Third, the metaphorical pie may be shrinking. What if—in a post-COVID world—a central fact of our new environment is that financial centers, like money itself, have been substantially dematerialized? Even the undisputed global financial centers—New York and London—have experienced some of this new reality. Bank and broker-dealer headquarters are no longer beehives of activity, creativity, and deal-making. They are more like corporate conference centers and operation hubs, only housing activities that require collective physical groups on an as-needed basis. Those activities should not be devalued, but these places are relatively empty shells compared to the Before Times (pre-2020). The large banks’ financial statements tell us that these changes have not hobbled actual financial activity, but the staff does not come to the office every day, and does not want to.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Banking, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Tokyo

67. Pax Economica: An Interview with Marc-William Palen

Author:: Seokju Oh and Marc-William Palen
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: In his new book Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World (Princeton University Press, 2024), historian Marc-William Palen offers a counter-history of free trade as an ideology and policy. In the nineteenth century, before it became a cherished possession of the Right, free trade was proudly claimed as their own by Left-wing activists, intellectuals, and politicians, those who were unswervingly committed to equality for all and peace among nations. Palen recovers this forgotten history of the “Left-wing free traders” of the late-nineteenth century, showing how liberal radicals, socialists, feminists, and Christian pacifists all viewed free trade as the key antidote to the social problems they encountered. Palen also upends the conventional understanding of the world of the late nineteenth and the early-twentieth centuries and argues that the fin-de-siècle was not the “Golden Age’ of the First Globalization, but actually the “Iron Age” of market enclosures and imperial competition. In February 2024, I had a great pleasure to discuss Pax Economica with Palen. Below is an edited version of the conversation.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Markets, History, Free Trade, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

68. The Yemen Review Quarterly: January-March 2024

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Yemen’s political and economic situation worsened in the first months of the year as the impacts of the Red Sea crisis, which began in November, began to manifest themselves. Peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) were effectively placed on hold, and the United States broadened its response to the Houthi attacks, launching strikes alongside the UK against Houthi targets inside Yemen and designating the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group (SDGT), which came into effect on February 16. The designation could impact not only Houthi military and economic activities but also risks a further stranglehold on international humanitarian work in Houthi-run territories, as banks and exchange firms stop dealing with Sana’a-based entities. In late March, Houthi authorities issued a 100-rial coin to replace dilapidated notes, escalating the economic warfare between the two rival central banks. Denouncing the move as illegal, the Aden central bank branch prohibited the coins’ circulation, but the real fear is that this is a trial balloon for a series of currency roll-outs that will end with Sana’a printing its own banknotes, possibly with foreign help, as rebel authorities did in Libya in 2019. Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saeed finally stepped down, succeeded by Foreign Minister Ahmed Awadh bin Mubarak on February 5. Yemen’s ambassador in Riyadh, Shaya al-Zindani, was belatedly appointed to the vacant foreign minister post on March 26. Neither man is popular with the PLC. Combined with the government’s strained finances, this could hamper their effectiveness. Houthi attacks on foreign shipping and US-UK attacks continued more or less unabated, causing in one case the sinking of a ship carrying fertilizer and diesel fuel. US-UK airstrikes have killed at least 37 on the Houthi side, and reportedly some Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers. After talks with Omani officials in Muscat in early April, the US Yemen envoy appeared to hold out hope of a resolution, suggesting the sanctions would be lifted if the attacks stopped – as tensions rose again between Iran and Israel, with possible implications for Yemen. Tensions also rose on frontlines inside Yemen as Houthi and government-aligned forces reinforced their military presence in several areas, including Hudaydah and Marib. The US-UK strikes also heightened the repressive atmosphere in Sana’a and elsewhere, as Houthi authorities cracked down in areas near mobile launch sites and introduced a new law against support for Israel that is already being used as another cudgel to crush dissent. Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch announced the loss of its leader Khaled Batarfi in March, who died after several months of illness. He was replaced by Saad al-Awlaqi, a senior Yemeni figure with strong tribal ties in Shabwa who is popular among younger members of the group but whose ties with Iran-based Saif al-Adel, the de facto leader of the global organization, appear to be tense. Al-Qaeda also lost Saif al-Adel’s son, known as Ibn al-Madani, reportedly as a result of a fire in the place where he was staying in Marib, and the group’s lead drone expert Khaled al-Sana’ani also died in an apparent traffic incident – incidents that have raised speculation of possible internal skulduggery as Al-Awlaqi settles into his new role.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Politics, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

69. The infinite connection: How to make the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor happen

Author:: Alberto Rizzi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The war in Gaza and its fallout have stalled plans for the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, or IMEC. But this grand US-led connectivity project to link the EU and India via the Gulf can still happen – and it can serve the geopolitical goals of all its participants. With IMEC, the US and the EU aim to draw India closer and counter Chinese influence. The corridor would provide a boost to India’s strategy to escape encirclement by Beijing and become a leader among developing countries. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, embrace IMEC as part of their push to become an economic bridge between East and West. For the corridor to fulfil its potential, the participants will need to coalesce around implementation plans that can reconcile these different goals. They will also need to overcome internal and external obstacles along each leg of the corridor. Europeans should view IMEC as providing a long-term addition to current trade routes. They should also press for the corridor to expand into a network, promote trade liberalisation with India, and support all the participants as they transition to renewable energy. If they are successful, IMEC could enhance Europe’s economic resilience and increase its options for trade diversification. The links IMEC could help forge among this range of powers may in fact constitute IMEC’s greatest prize, with the corridor helping to prevent fragmentation reaching extreme levels.
Topic:: Economics, Infrastructure, Economic Cooperation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, India, and Gulf Nations

70. Economic and Technological Zones: Economic Strategy in the Tibet Autonomous Region

Author:: Devendra Kumar
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and livestock sectors), and Han people constitute the majority group in many of Tiber’s urban centers. The TAR government has set up the zones to import practices from elsewhere in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and shift the region’s economy away from traditional sectors and toward export-oriented industries, construction, and even high-tech manufacturing. The TAR’s external trade is currently limited to Nepal, due to ongoing border tensions with India. Meanwhile, infrastructural challenges hampering the development of the Sichuan-Tibet railway or national highways connecting the TAR with other provinces suggest that further integration with the rest of the PRC remains some way off. In a related policy, the PRC has developed border towns strategically located near land border ports that it has built along its borders with India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Infrastructure buildup on the border could also serve a dual-use purpose in the case of a conflict, as has been the case in India in recent years.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Trade, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Tibet

71. Marka Deneyimi Yaratma Sürecinde Hikâye Anlatıcılığının Rolü

Author:: Ezgi Limanlı and Burcu Öksüz
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bu çalışma, marka deneyimi ve hikâye anlatıcılığı kavramları arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Marka deneyimi ve hikâye anlatıcılığı kavramlarının, marka ile müşteri arasındaki ilişkide yarattığı duygusal ve davranışsal etkiler (memnuniyet, deneyim, güven ve sadakat gibi) incelenmiştir. Veri toplama yöntemi olarak nitel bir araştırma yöntemi olan odak grup görüşmeleri (üç oturum) kullanılmıştır. Odak grup görüşmelerinde 20 ile 30 yaş aralığında bulunan 8 kadın ve 8 erkek olmak üzere toplam 16 katılımcı yer almıştır. Bütçe ve zaman kısıtlarının olması nedeniyle tesadüfi olmayan örnekleme yöntemlerinden kolayda örnekleme yöntemine başvurulmuştur. Katılımcılara toplam 18 soru yöneltilmiştir. Katılımcılardan öncelikle marka olgusunu kapsayan soruları, daha sonra marka deneyimi sürecinde hikâye anlatıcılığına ilişkin soruları yanıtlamaları istenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular detaylıca analiz edilmiş ve yorumlanmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, hikâye anlatıcılığının marka deneyiminde bir bakıma katalizör görevi üstlendiği görülmektedir. Tüketicilerin duygularına hitap eden, iyi bir şekilde kurgulanmış ve doğru kanallarla ifade edilen gerçek bir hikâyenin tüketicilerde empatiyi arttırdığı ve onları ikna ettiği ortaya konulmuştur.
Topic:: Economics, Communications, Consumer Behavior, Storytelling, Branding, and Marketing
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

72. Japan’s Approach to the Global South

Author:: Tobias Harris
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in a January 2023 speech in Washington, DC, stressed that if the G7 countries and their developed-world peers neglect the “Global South”, “we will find ourselves in the minority and unable to resolve mounting policy issues.” These remarks set the stage for a major theme of Japan’s G7 presidency that year, during which Tokyo continued to highlight the importance of more “humility” to strengthen relations between the group’s members and the “Global South”. The G7 leaders’ communiqué at their May 2023 Hiroshima summit did not refer explicitly to the Global South—the United States and other nations did not necessarily share Japan’s preference for the term, which risks treating as monolithic an enormously diverse array of countries—but the document stressed the importance of addressing the needs of middle- and low-income states, including a commitment to “continued efforts to scale up official development assistance (ODA)” and to adopting “innovative financing mechanisms”. This emphasis on outreach to the developing countries assumed greater urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when they were often reluctant to support Western efforts to isolate and punish the Kremlin for its aggression. Japan’s approach to the “Global South” is not merely rhetorical. The Kishida government inherited a long-standing approach to developing nations, particularly those in Asia, that seeks to leverage Japanese ODA and public and private investment. The approach has two goals: to promote growth and strengthen economic ties with developing countries, and to foster trust and political credibility that can be translated into influence. The strategy is shaped by Japan’s national interests but seeks to address developing countries’ economic needs without drawing them into an anti-Beijing bloc. The approach has worked well in Southeast Asia, where, thanks to decades of efforts by successive governments, Japan is viewed particularly favorably. Tokyo now appears increasingly determined to pursue the same strategy in other parts of the “Global South”, including South Asia, the Pacific island states, and, to a lesser extent, Africa and Latin America. As Japan’s G7 peers seek to undertake their own initiatives to improve relations with the “Global South”, the key principles and successes of the country’s policies are worth examining.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Democracy, Business, Global South, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

73. Rethinking Industrial Policy for Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Michal Hrubý
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is increasingly important in the EU’s manufacturing landscape. The region’s export-oriented economies became an integral part of it through foreign direct investment—supported primarily by EU funding, including Cohesion Policy programs for regional and industrial development, and by national state spending. With its competitiveness at stake, the EU now focuses on industrial policy for cutting-edge technologies with high capital intensity. Many of its new regulations loosen state aid rules to allow generous support by governments to attract investors, which poses a problem for member states with less fiscal room to do so, including the CEE countries. This report discusses the opportunities and challenges for CEE countries to build manufacturing with potential to grow and to increase domestic value-added. It examines two case studies in the region: batteries and semiconductors, and their position in the value chains in Czechia and Hungary. Hungary has become one of the EU’s leading battery industry hubs and plays a key role in the drive toward self- sufficiency in this field. Its success came principally through government spending on investment promotion. Key issues have arisen regarding the environmental sustainability of new investments, the decision to attract cheap foreign labor without any appropriate long-term labor policy, and the lack of knowledge spillover from multinational companies to small and medium domestic ones to improve their value-chain position. New large investments announced by Chinese companies also raise geopolitical and security issues. With its broad innovation and R&D strategy and record low unemployment, Czechia did not make attracting large investments a priority before the COVID-19 pandemic. This has changed and its semiconductor industry is well- placed to draw in new investments in the micro- and nanoelectronics value chain. Czechia has started to support the industry through state aid for a handful of domestic and foreign companies, due to its strategic importance, its high value-added in production output, and the opportunity for stimulating R&D and high-skill employment. These case studies reveal key takeaways for Central and Eastern Europe. First, industrial policy based on state aid in small open economies are costly and will not generate long-term benefits if it is oriented solely at production tasks as in the past. Investment must bring innovation and R&D. Second, CEE countries should make financing innovation and R&D the priority, not subsidizing new manufacturing projects. They should rationalize their policy objectives and update and stick to their national strategies. Third, tight budgets and financial consolidation put pressure on selecting projects for state aid. Governments should not provide this aid without a solid cost-benefit analysis of the investments. Fourth, the CEE countries should consolidate the too broad innovation priorities within their national strategies and analyze their long-term growth potential. Fifth, industrial policy must be accompanied by appropriate labor and education policies to support the green and digital transition.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

74. The Decline and Rise of Hegemonic Narratives: From Globalisation and the 'Asia-Pacific' to Geopolitics and the 'Indo-Pacific'

Author:: Richard Higgott
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Ideas and words have consequences. The 'Asia Pacific' as an economic understanding of region is giving way, some would say has given way, to the 'Indo-Pacific' as a geopolitical understanding of region. This paper explores the ideational and discursive consequences of this juxtaposition. It focuses on the shift from the theoretical and practical implications of the waning ideational hegemony of neo-liberal economics to the growing hegemony of geopolitical security concerns. It argues that just as a neo-liberal economic approach to the Asia Pacific over-hyped the success and benefits of globalisation as an absolute wealth aggregator and underplayed its negative externalities of mal-distribution and growing inequality, the privileging of the Indo-Pacific over-hypes the concept of security and underplays the effects of 'threat inflation' and the self-fulfilling possibilities of the privileging of forward leaning geo-political analysis. By way of a short case study, the paper shows how Australia’s strategic culture is now driven more by the US security coda of the Indo-Pacific rather than the economic coda of the 'Asia-Pacific'.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Globalization, Hegemony, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific

75. Türkiye’de Yapılan Nedensellik Araştırmaları Üzerine: Sahte Nedensellik Bulguları

Author:: Ahmet Aydın Arı, Kerim Eser Afşar, and Murat Şenol
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Amaç- Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de ve dünya-da yapılan nedensellik çalışmalarının karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilmesiyle, ulusal ve uluslararası lite-ratür arasındaki farklılıkların tespit edilmesidir. Yöntem/Metodoloji/Dizayn- Yöntem olarak karşı-laştırmalı analiz ve bibliyometri kullanılmıştır. Bu yöntemler, iki farklı literatürdeki nedensellik çalış-malarını değerlendirmek için seçilmiştir. Sonuçlar- Ulusal ve uluslararası literatürde özelikle sahte nedenselliğin ihmal edilmesi nedeniyle büyük bir uçurum ortaya çıkmaktadır. Türkiye’de uluslara-rası literatürle bağları zayıf olan yerel bir nedensel-lik literatürünün oluştuğu tespit edilmiştir. Ulusal li-teratürde nedensellik kavramını kullanan yazarların genellikle sahte korelasyon gibi bir durumu neden-sellik olarak algılayarak değerlendirmesi ve analiz-lerini nedensellik olarak belirtmesi yapılan çalışma-ların katkı değerini azaltan bir durum ortaya çıkar-maktadır. Ulusal literatürde ortaya çıkan kapalı bi-limsel ağ yapısı, gelecekte gerçekleşecek diğer ça-lışmalar için patika bağımlılığı riski yaratmaktadır. Katkı/Farklılıklar- Politika tasarımlarında neden-sellik sonuçları, önemli bir teorik dayanak noktası-dır. Bu konunun ampirik iktisat literatüründe ihmal edilmesi hatalı politika çıkarımlarına neden olabilir.
Topic:: Economics, Causality, and Methodology
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

76. Exploring the Impact of Behavioural Factors and Personality Traits on Private Pension System Participation: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:: Can Verberi and Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: This study aims to investigate the effects of personality traits, in addition to basic financial literacy, private pension literacy and behavioural factors on Private Pension System (PPS) participation using machine learning algorithms. The PPS participation model was trained using both random forest and LightGBM algorithms, and the contributions of model inputs in the prediction of pension participation were interpreted using the Tree SHAP algorithms with swarmplots. The data employed in the empirical analysis is survey data collected from the Şırnak province of Türkiye with a sample size of 449. The findings of the study shows that: (i) PPS participation is more likely for females and middle-aged people; (ii) High basic financial literacy has a negative impact on PPS participation; (iii) Extraversion is the key personality trait affecting PPS participation; (iv) Advanced pension literacy has more impact on participation than simple pension literacy: (v) Present-fatalistic tendency is key behavioural factor and it negatively affects PPS; (vi) Present-hedonistic, conscientiousness, future-time orientation, and locus of control tendencies increase PPS participation. Furthermore, the distribution of colours in LightGBM has a greater degree of uniformity in both directions compared with the random forest algorithm. Finally, to increase PPS participation, the results of the study suggest the implementation of the following policy measures: Tailored pension literacy programmes can help to increase pension participation rates. Incentives should be created to prevent narrow-minded behaviour and establish a sense of protection and control around PPS, targeting middle-aged individuals and women.
Topic:: Economics, Behavior, Pension, Machine Learning, and Personality
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

77. Relationship between Organic Agriculture And GDP Per Capita, Economic Growth, and Unemployment: Panel Data Analysis

Author:: Kurtuluş Merdan
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The increase in the world population recently has also increased the need for agricultural products. The need for food products has made it necessary to obtain more products per unit area. At this point, producers have focussed on the use of hormones, chemicals, and fertilisers to increase productivity and meet the demand for cheap food, and the process that increases production in the short term has become a threat to human health in the long term. Over time, the negative effects of chemicals on humans and the environment were observed, forcing producers to seek new methods. This process has led to independent studies on organic agriculture in every country. In this study, the effects of organic agriculture on some economic variables were revealed. In this context, the analyses focus now the variables of area allocated to organic agriculture on a regional basis, production amount and number of producers affected GDP per capita, economic growth, and unemployment in Turkey between 2003 and 2021. The scientific dimension of the study was prepared using data obtained from domestic and foreign literature and the electronic database of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. In this study, in which panel data analysis was used, EViews 12 programme was employed. For the variables used in the study, the geographical region cross-section dependence was determined, and the stationarity of the series was examined with the CIPS (Cross-Sectionally Augmented IPS) unit root test. As a result of the study, it was determined that organic production amount, number of organic farmers, and organic production area did not have a significant effect on economic growth and unemployment. Organic production area and the number of organic farmers had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita, but the amount of organic production did not have a significant relationship.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, GDP, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

78. A Better Proxy for Technology Determinant of Economic Growth: The International Digital Economy and Society Index

Author:: Elif Asoy
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The importance of information communication technology in fueling economic growth is widely acknowledged. In the current digital era, the International Digital Economy and Society Index (I-DESI) offers a more precise depiction alternative to the ICT indicators by serving as a better proxy for changes in the factors of production. It monitors the advancement of ICT in the EU27 and 14 non-EU nations, highlighting their strides towards a technologydriven economy. The objective of the study was to evaluate the influence of the I-DESI on economic growth through the utilization of the panel data method. Hence, gross domestic product (GDP) measured at constant prices was utilized as the dependent variable in the analysis, while the Index of Digital Economy and Society Integration (I-DESI), calculated by the European Commission, served as the independent variable. However, it’s important to note that the described index is current and limited at present. In line with this constraint, only four years of data, spanning from 2015 to 2018, were available. To ensure the accuracy of the model, diagnostic tests were conducted, and the Driscoll-Kraay standard error model was employed to assess the outcomes. Two models were constructed to achieve this goal, with the initial one revealing the relationship between the I-DESI and economic growth. The second model aimed to pinpoint the dimensions of the I-DESI that had the greatest impact on growth. According to findings obtained from the analysis, I-DESI and certain subdimensions which are digital skills, use of internet, integration of digital technology, and digital public services affect economic growth positively and significantly. A one percent increase in I-DESI results in a one percent increase in GDP. Similarly, each subdimension mentioned, where meaningful relationships have been identified, possesses explanatory power for GDP. Furthermore, evaluating the coefficient of these independent variables, changing the weight of dimensions can be considered.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Global Focus

79. Public Policies on the Socioeconomic Effects of Migration

Author:: Ezgim Yavuz and Nazan Susam
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: To develop a public policy, it is important to understand the experiences of forced migrants. This study reveals the effects of forced migration on public finances in countries hosting displaced people. In this context, public policy support for access to basic humanitarian needs such as education and health, which are semi-public goods, will be evaluated through a quantitative analysis. Interviews with refugees within the scope of this research draw a picture of the current situation. Thus, evaluating the effectiveness and shortcomings of existing policies and determining the policy support needed are among the unique values of this research. Since migration is a dynamic process, it is also aimed to provide a basis for future studies in this field and to reveal the current situation.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Health, Migration, Refugees, Public Policy, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

80. Panel Causality Analysis of the Relationship among the Rule of Law, Technological Advances, Competitiveness, and Value-Added

Author:: Doğan Keşap and Ali Rıza Sandalcılar
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The status of countries within the global value chain varies depending on the importance of national production capabilities in the global economy. From this perspective, there is a need for a value-added production approach that focuses on innovation and competitiveness. Technological advances and institutions are considered to play a significant role in transforming the economy towards an innovation-driven one to meet these needs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship among technological advances, the rule of law as a proxy for institutions, value-added production, and competitiveness in a way that reflects crosscountry divergence. Through an analysis employed independently of countries’ existing levels of development, it will be possible to evaluate whether the factors associated with institutions and innovation can produce similar results in all circumstances and for each country. In this context, a panel causality analysis that considers cross-sectional heterogeneity is employed. The analysis shows bidirectional causality between the variables, except for value-added to the rule of law. However, the results also support the existence of cross-country divergence. These findings suggest that future policy plans should be designed to consider the multidimensional nature of country-specific factors, alongside technological advances and the rule of law, and to ensure the integration of both national and international economic objectives.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Rule of Law, Competition, and Value-added Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

81. Contribution of Finance and Transport Indicators on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Eurasian Countries

Author:: Kenan Ilarslan and Tuğrul Bayat
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: Carbon emission is one of the most significant causes of environmental degradation, global warming, and extraordinary meteorological events. It has reached a level that threatens the future of countries and human beings. To combat carbon emission, it is necessary to know the causes for developing policies. Environmental quality is a fundamental aspect of sustainable development in economies worldwide. In this context, Eurasian geography has always been an important region in the history of the world with its location, underground, and surface resources. Today, the region makes its strategic importance even more evident. The communist USSR ruled Eurasian countries, which served as a buffer between the Western world and China for many years. These countries, which gained their independence in the 1990s, have not yet fully captured the values of the modern world, such as democracy and a free market economy. This study focuses on Eurasian countries. This study aimed to determine the factors affecting carbon emissions. Foreign direct investment and transportation contribute significantly to carbon emission, which reduces environmental quality. Therefore, in this study, we investigated whether rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment affect carbon emission in Eurasian countries. The concurrent panel quantile regression method was used to estimate this relationship between 1992 and 2020. The results revealed that rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment increase emissions. Additionally, no clear result could be obtained regarding the effect of the GDP per capita variable. To support these findings, analyses were performed using the robust quantile regression method, and strong empirical evidence was obtained, particularly for the impacts of foreign direct investment and rail passenger transport on emissions.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, and Quantile Regression
Political Geography:: Eurasia

82. Analysis of Istanbul Stock Market Returns Volatility with ARCH and GARCH Models

Author:: İpek M. Yurttagüler
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: In today’s world where globalization is intensely experienced, differences in risk perception, developments in capital markets, and the negativities faced in the markets due to uncertainty are very important when researching the structures of the stock markets, and therefore determining current volatilities. One of the biggest problems encountered is the inability to price stocks effectively. Therefore, estimating and modeling volatility becomes crucial. The diversity of the portfolio, created by international investors in the financial markets and the sustainability of their investment decisions, are closely related to the volatility variable. However, the fact that financial markets are more fragile in developing countries increases the importance of volatility. There are many different methods in the literature when estimating volatility. Due to the inadequacy of traditional time series models in estimating volatility, conditional heteroskedasticity models are used with ARCH and GARCH class models being frequently used. In this study, the series of daily opening values of the ISE100 Index covering from 02.01.2003 to 30.09.2022 was estimated using ARCH/GARCH models for volatility with the aim to determine which model has the higher explanatory power. According to the findings, the GARCH(1,1) model gave more meaningful results in explaining the ISE100 return volatility.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Stock Markets, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

83. Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Ecological Footprint of European Countries

Author:: Beyda Demirci and Ferda Yerdelen Tatoğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: This study explains the effects of various economic factors on the ecological footprint of 34 European countries in 2022 using spatial econometric techniques. Unlike previous studies on the ecological footprint, this study presents more comprehensive results by including spatial effects in the model using spatial econometric techniques for 34 countries for 2022. This study analyzes the lagged effects of per capita GDP growth, trade openness, and renewable energy use on the ecological footprint. The spatial Durbin Model was confirmed as the most appropriate through diagnostic tests and selection criteria. The results show that per capita GDP growth, trade openness, and renewable energy usage positively and significantly affect the ecological footprint. Additionally, the spatially lagged per capita GDP growth rate has a negative impact on the ecological footprint, while the spatially lagged trade openness has a positive impact, both of which are statistically significant. These findings underscore the importance of considering the environmental impacts of economic policies to achieve sustainable development. Furthermore, the identification of spatial effects in the spread of ecological footprints highlights the need to address environmental issues not only at the national level but also in relation to neighbouring countries.
Topic:: Economics, Econometrics, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Europe

84. Ceremonial Economics: A General Review

Author:: Aras Yolusever
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: Ceremonial economics explores how traditional values, myths, and rituals intersect with economic practices and institutions. It differentiates between “ceremonial” practices based on tradition and cultural values and “instrumental” practices based on efficiency and problem-solving capabilities. This field, rooted in institutional economics, emphasizes the tension between preserving established social orders and fostering innovation. Scholars can gain insights into the broader implications of economic systems by understanding how ceremonial practices influence economic behavior and social cohesion. This pluralistic approach comprehensively analyzes how ceremonial and instrumental practices interact within various economic systems. The main goal of this study is to develop a detailed and all-encompassing framework for ceremonial economics. A key aspect of this will involve comparing ceremonial economics principles with institutional economics. Additionally, the study will delve into various aspects of ceremonial economics, specifically focusing on cultural and social aspects. Furthermore, the study conducts four examples to provide practical insights into the application of ceremonial economics.
Topic:: Economics, Tradition, and Rituals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

85. Foreign Direct Investment, Brand Value, and Economic Performance: A Multinational Analysis

Author:: Tuba Yıldız, Ünal Arslan, Zeynep Ökten, Yıldız Sağlam Çelıköz, and Hale Kırmızıoğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The visibility and dependability of multinational corporations’ products increase with the fact that they introduce their goods to markets in other nations through foreign direct investments. The method for presenting products to international markets through foreign direct investments reveals the product’s reputation and therefore the brand’s development value. This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investments and brand value in Australia, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Spain, the USA, and the UK for the period 2007-2023. The majority of studies in the literature attempt to explain the impact of brand value on foreign direct investments. However, very few studies explain the impac foreign direct investments on brand value and 1st generation unit root tests were generally used. Unlike existing studies, In this study, the second-generation unit root test, Durbin-Hausman cointegration, and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimation methods were used. As a result, it is anticipated that this study will contribute to the literature in this regard. The findings show that increases in foreign direct investments boost brand value.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Data, and Branding
Political Geography:: Japan, China, United Kingdom, Canada, India, France, Spain, Australia, Global Focus, and United States of America

86. Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?

Author:: Dila Asfuroğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in Türkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in Türkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 2008- 2022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in Türkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Income Inequality, and Populism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

87. Did the February 6-7 Türkiye Earthquake Trigger a Housing Market Bubble? Empirical Insights from Right-tailed Unit-root Tests

Author:: Gökhan Kartal
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: This study primarily aims to assess whether the destructive earthquakes of February 6-7, 2023 triggered a potential nationwide housing market bubble. Spanning the period from January 2010 to September 2024, the analysis employs Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods to identify bubble formations. The findings reveal significant bubble periods, including January to August 2015, November 2015 to November 2016, May 2018 to January 2019, May to June 2019, and February to December 2023. The latest bubble formation occurred immediately after the earthquake, highlighting a strong link between the disaster and housing market dynamics. While the earthquake’s impact—through abrupt housing stock loss, large-scale displacement, and intensified demand for secure housing—was undeniably a crucial trigger for this bubble, other macroeconomic factors, such as inflationary pressures, low interest rates, and the perception of housing as a lucrative investment, also played a reinforcing role. The Türkiye experience enhances the understanding of speculative cycles in seismic regions, demonstrating how non-economic shocks such as earthquakes can rapidly boost demand and strain housing supply, amplifying speculative behaviour. This bubble, which peaked in May 2023 and gradually deflated, completely dissipated by December 2023. This development can be associated with the policies implemented by economic authorities, including interest rate hikes, restrictive credit measures, as well as the normalisation of conditions across the country following the earthquake. This highlights the need for proactive monitoring and intervention by economic authorities through appropriate economic policies and regulations to address supply-demand imbalances and mitigate the risks of future housing bubbles, particularly in response to external shocks. Furthermore, in response to the study’s findings on earthquake-triggered bubbles, policymakers should prioritise initiatives aimed at strengthening building infrastructure and implementing urban transformation strategies.
Topic:: Economics, Natural Disasters, Earthquake, Speculative Bubbles, and Housing Market
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

88. Determinants of Ecological Footprint in Türkiye: Evidence from the Fourier ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Author:: Mustafa Torun, Cüneyt Kılıç, Ahmet Tayfur Akcan, and Müşerref Arık
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: Ecological footprint calculations evaluate sustainability by examining natural resources. The ecological footprint obtained by calculating the number of natural resources per person provides information about the amount of waste produced as well as the natural resources consumed and examines the sustainability of living conditions in the world in this respect. The ecological footprint is one of the frequently encountered topics in the literature in terms of the analysis of environmental impacts. This study examines the factors influencing the Ecological Footprint in Turkey. Using annual data between 1980 and 2018, the relationship of renewable energy consumption, human capital and urbanization variables to the Ecological Footprint is examined. The Fractional Fourier Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test is used in the study. There is a statistically significant relationship between the renewable energy, human capital and urbanization variables and the Ecological Footprint. When the outputs obtained in the study are examined, it is seen that the variables affect the ecological footprint. The increased value of these variables can be used to explain why the Ecological Footprint increased. Increasing industrial activities due to globalization and technological developments, increasing vehicle traffic in cities due to population growth, unplanned urbanization and destruction of green areas due to the sheltering needs of the increasing population, inability of recycling facilities to adapt to the increasing population and unplanned waste management, etc. factors can increase the ecological footprint. However, as urbanization increases, if a correct plan is drawn by taking these factors into consideration, the negative correlation between the ecological footprint and urbanization can be explained. Within the determined plan; Wastewater management, protection of green areas, prevention of unplanned urbanization and efficient use of resources are explanatory at this point. The empirical findings have important policy implications. According to these policy implications, to offset the effects on the ecological footprint, educational activities to raise environmental awareness and adopt energy-efficient lifestyles should be given due importance, various incentives and supports should be implemented and a green-based lifestyle.
Topic:: Economics, Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, Ecology, and Consumption
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

89. Determinants of Air Transport in the BRICS-T Countries: Findings from Panel Data Analysis

Author:: Şevket Pazarcı, Emre Kılıç, Asım Kar, and Sıla Kale
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the factors that determine air transport in the BRICS countries, which account for approximately 42% of the world’s population and occupy an important position among developing countries in terms of economic size. In more detail, in this study, air transport examines two different models, passenger and freight transport. The research is carried out for the period 1996-2020. Panel data methods were used as analysis methods. According to the results of the analysis, both air passenger transport and air freight transport act together with their macroeconomic and socioeconomic determinants in the long term. Income is positive and significant in the air passenger transportation model, while income is insignificant in the freight transportation model. In addition, inflation, exchange rate, industrialisation and urbanisation on a country basis are important determinants of both air passenger transport and air freight transport for BRICS-T.
Topic:: Economics, Transportation, Data, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Global Focus

90. Aspects of Employment in Ottoman Waqfs Examples of Fatih, Yavuz Selim, and Süleymaniye Waqfs

Author:: Ayşenur Karademir
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: This study examines the role of Ottoman imperial waqfs as employment institutions, focusing on the salary register EV.HMH.1178, prepared for the Fatih, Yavuz Selim, and Süleymaniye waqfs in the early 18th century. By analyzing the administrative and financial oversight documented in this register, the article explores the redistributive functions of these waqfs and their contribution to sustaining long-term social and economic stability. Special attention is given to the intervention of the central office (Sadr-ı Âli Nezareti/Grand Vizier’s Office) through an imperial decree and the classification of employee roles by workplace. This research contributes to the literature on waqfs by providing insights into their employment systems and administrative practices.
Topic:: Economics, History, Employment, Ottoman Empire, and Waqf
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

91. Investigation of Connectedness Effects in the Euro Region: The Case of the Real Estate Prices Index

Author:: Öznur Taşdöken and Hakan Kahyaoğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: Shocks occurring in the housing market among countries using the common currency in the European Union also cause fluctuations in real estate market prices. Therefore, the analysis of the spread and mutual influence of price fluctuations in the real estate market on the economies of countries becomes essential in the implementation of macroeconomic and common monetary policies. In terms of the social and economic impact of the housing market, this information has become the most important source for understanding countries’ investment preferences and price dynamics. Consequently, what initially begins as country-specific shocks in housing markets often evolves into a structure in which these shocks affect housing markets in other countries. Within this framework, the primary objective of this study is to present findings regarding the estimation of parameters related to the interconnectedness of shocks occurring in the housing markets of countries using the single currency of the European Union with other countries’ housing markets.Otherwise, it explores the macroeconomic impacts of countries’ housing markets in the Eurozone due to the mutual interdependence among these countries.The main findings obtained from the study indicate that shocks in the left tail (τ = 0.05) and right tail (τ = 0.95) have a greater impact on connectivity than shocks obtained from median predictions. This demonstrates that relying solely on median-based predictors is not appropriate for examining return transmissions associated with extreme positive/negative events. This is because shocks in the housing market propagate more strongly in the right and left tails than in the median.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Real Estate, Housing Market, and Interconnectedness
Political Geography:: Europe

92. Financing Innovations – Cameroonian Startups and the Rise of Alternative Funding

Author:: Adeline Nembot, Yollande Meli Tankeu, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: In Cameroon, startups have always relied on personal resources and bank financing despite their heavy investment requirements. Yet, rigorous collateral and high interest rate requirements limit access to bank loans. As a result in 2021, only 15% of Cameroonian startups had access to formal funding options, while the majority relied on personal savings or informal funding sources (1), such as Informal Saving Groups and Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (ROSCAs). Moreover, according to the Central African Startup Finance Report 2022, funds raised in 2022 by startups in Cameroon remained stable year to year at 7.3 billion francs CFA ($12 million) (2). In 2023, the Africa platform’s report showing the breakdown by country of funds raised by young African startups revealed that Cameroon attracted fewer investors, raising just $4 million, far behind Côte d’Ivoire ($17 million), Senegal ($44 million), Benin ($71 million), Kenya ($88 million), South Africa ($410 million), and Egypt ($640 million) (3). This restricted access hinders startups’ potential to innovate, create jobs, and contribute to economic growth. In this context, there is a need for exploring alternative financing options, which demands a shift from traditional to emergent financing solutions.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Innovation, and Startup
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

93. The Impact of Access to credit on Women’s Entrepreneurship

Author:: Vera Kum
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: This article explores how access to credit and financial resources can help women start and grow their businesses. Anchored within the paradigm of women’s entrepreneurship empowerment and social development, we will first examine from the literature some cases of access to credit in women’s entrepreneurship. A brief analysis of the significance of financial accessibility for female entrepreneurship development follows this. Finally, we will suggest some recommendations that can help decision-makers better formulate more inclusive policies to ensure equitability between males and females regarding credit accessibility for women.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Finance, and Entrepreneurship
Political Geography:: Africa

94. Over-Indebtedness in Central Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Reform Strategies

Author:: Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The CEMAC region is facing a concerning situation of over-indebtedness, exacerbated by external shocks and the volatility of commodity prices. This brief aims to analyze the structural and economic causes of over-indebtedness in CEMAC countries while formulating policy recommendations to improve debt management and enhance economic resilience. Targeted at policymakers, financial institutions, and regional bodies in Central Africa, this work relies on an econometric analysis using a mixed model (Multilevel Random Effects) based on data from 2010 to 2022. Key indicators include external debt and public debt service. The findings reveal a strong dependence on external debt, while fiscal reforms have a limited short-term impact. Structural reforms are essential to reduce debt vulnerabilities. Additionally, regional coordination is recommended to improve debt sustainability through institutional reforms, increased fiscal discipline, and economic diversification. However, this analysis does not account for potential global economic shocks that could affect the region.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Reform, Diversification, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Central Africa

95. Illicit Financial Flows in the age of Digitalisation in Africa : Opportunities and Challenges

Author:: Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: In recent years, countries have witnessed the widespread adoption of new digital technologies for financial transactions, including electronic payments, mobile and online banking, e-commerce, cryptocurrencies, and gambling services. African nations are not exempt from these financial activities, particularly illicit ones. In fact, Africa is losing approximately $88.6 billion annually due to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a sum regarded as a significant loss of development opportunities (1). Such circumstances threaten the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which aims to achieve inclusive and sustainable development across the continent (2). Illicit Financial Flows (IFF) occur when money or capital is illegally earned, utilized, and transferred across borders. Typically, this mechanism is employed with the intent to evade taxes related to trade and fiscal records. While digital technologies can be leveraged to investigate, detect, and disrupt these unlawful transfers of funds, the evolving landscape of online business can exacerbate IFFs by enabling the movement of illegal funds to fraudulent e-commerce companies and online enterprises. Therefore, it is essential to examine the extent to which digital technologies can serve as tools to either mitigate or facilitate IFFs in Africa. This article aims to explore the opportunities and challenges presented by digital technologies and digitalization in relation to IFFs in Africa. To accomplish this, I will utilize secondary data sources from existing literature, including articles, books, and reports from international organizations with expertise in this area.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Digitalization, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:: Africa

96. Risks and challenges to oil and gas markets in the current Middle East conflict

Author:: Colby Connelly, Emily Stromquist, Karen Young, Yesar Al-Maleki, and Nikolay Kozhanov
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Program on Economics and Energy cordially invites you to a panel discussion of the war-time threats to energy transit along the Red Sea corridor and to regional production facilities, within the context of broader supply-and-demand dynamics. Since Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel and subsequent war in Gaza, hydrocarbon prices have held relatively stable, although attacks by Houthi militants on shipping in the Red Sea could cause long-term market shifts and geographic segmentation. Why have we seen such a low impact on oil prices to date despite profound regional instability? What explains natural gas prices staying at historic lows? Are Gulf oil facilities at risk? What is the outlook for gas production in the Eastern Mediterranean? And how is OPEC considering outside supply competition and near-term demand? To answer these and other questions, MEI has convened five top US and regional energy and geopolitical risk analysts, who include contributors to MEI’s new edited volume Energy Transitions in the Middle East. They will reflect on their assessments of oil and gas markets prior to Oct. 7 as well as share their views on the current risks and challenges for fossil fuel producers in the region.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Oil, Energy, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Gaza, and Red Sea

97. Contractual Origins of Anti-Americanism: Pew 2013 Results

Author:: Cem Birol
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Economic Norms Theory (ENT) implies that anti-modernist and anti-market values flourish in countries where the central authority poorly monitors contracts that bind economic transactions. Decades of research show that ENT astutely predicts civil war and interstate war incidents, as well as people’s support for war, and suicide bombing in defense of Islam. This paper investigates the association between contract enforcement and anti-Americanism, which is the ENT’s core, yet is a statistically under-evaluated implication. Accordingly, in countries with poor economic contract monitoring, power-contending elites can attribute the resultant loss of prosperity to the USA and relatedly spread anti-American values among citizens. It is the urban poor who are cognitively most available to adopt such elite-driven anti-Americanism since they tend to be hurt most socially and economically by unfulfilled market contracts. To investigate this argument, I statistically estimate random intercept models on a sample of Pew Global Attitudes Project’s 2013 survey results. I observe that a three-way interaction among individuals’ urbanity, poverty, and their nations’ poor contract enforcement indicators increase anti-Americanism.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Urban, Survey, Economic Norms Theory (ENT), Hierarchical Modelling, and Anti-Americanism
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

98. Options for Green-Skilled Migration Partnerships: A Guide for Policymakers

Author:: Helen Dempster and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The green transition is widely expected to lead to high levels of net job creation, with roles distributed across the pay and skill spectrum. To fill these roles, many countries of destination will need to use migration alongside their domestic labour supply. Yet few countries of origin have enough skilled workers to meet their own green transition targets. As a result, any green-skilled migration facilitated by countries of destination should be linked with investments in the training, recruitment, and retention of workers into ‘green’ jobs within countries of origin. This paper explores three models that link training and migration in a partnership framework—fixed-term migration; Global Skill Partnerships; and migration with parallel investments—to maximise both economic development and carbon reduction benefits. For each model, the paper outlines key considerations that should be taken into account along with a worked example. It also includes a "guide," walking policymakers through the different models to understand which would best meet the needs of countries of origin, countries of destination, and employers.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Economic Development, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

99. The Economics of Eliminating Plastic Water Bottles in the United States

Author:: Emily Diaz-Loar
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: As of the most recent 2018 data, U.S. residents purchased more than 70 billion plastic water bottles. On average, this amounts to each U.S. resident buying 214 plastic water bottles during 2018. Virtually all these bottles are manufactured as fossil fuel-based products, and 86 percent are disposed of after only one use. Such fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles inflict a range of severe negative impacts on the environment and human health. They leach toxic chemicals into the soil, water and food supply, which in turn contribute to causing various types of cancers as well as infertility, in humans and other species. They also release tiny ‘microplastic’ particles, which have been found in, among other parts of the human body, the carotid artery tissues that supply blood to the brain. Recent research has found that people with microplastics in their carotid artery tissues were twice as likely to have a heart attack, stroke or die from any cause over the next three years than people who had none. Beyond this, plastic bottles litter beaches and roadways, clog water drains, strangle animals and contaminate habitats. It is clear that continuing, and expanding, the consumption of single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles, in the U.S. and elsewhere, is unsustainable. In this study, I examine alternative approaches to phasing out their use. More specifically I consider six possible alternatives to single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles within the U.S. economy. These include: recycling fossil-fuel based bottles; utilizing plants as the raw material for producing ‘bioplastic’ bottles; and producing bottles with materials other than plastics, including paperboard cartons; glass; aluminum; and stainless steel. Of these alternatives, I show that, in terms of both environmental impacts and production costs, the most viable substitutes for single-use fossil-fuel based plastic bottles are reusable bottles made from either aluminum or stainless steel. Overall, aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can significantly reduce the environmental impacts of water bottles, in particular the chemical toxicity that results from their use. Substituting aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can also dramatically reduce the levels of waste and raw material extraction associated with fossil fuel-based plastic bottles. Further, I estimate that the costs of producing bottles from either aluminum or stainless steel will fall by over 30 percent in a scenario in which they substitute for 90 percent of the fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles now being consumed in the U.S. Overall, my results demonstrate that there are realistic prospects to achieve major environmental and economic benefits through phasing out single-use plastic bottles and creating viable alternatives to their continued use.
Topic:: Economics, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

100. Inequality and the Environment: Global Inequality Research Award Lecture

Author:: James K. Boyce
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This lecture, delivered at the ceremony for the inaugural Global Inequality Research Award at Sciences Po in Paris, provides a trajectory of the author’s work on inequality and the environment that was recognized by the award. Thirty years ago, many economists and environmentalists saw inequality as a non-issue. Today there is widespread recognition of its importance. The lecture reviews how inequalities in the distribution of wealth and power affect both the magnitude and incidence of environmental harms and discusses some of the synergies between policies to reduce inequality and to improve environmental quality.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS