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1. The Ukraine War Prospect: How Peace Plans Might Work and Why They Will Fail

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
During 2025 multiple contending Ukraine peace and cease-fire proposals were put forward by the Trump administration and America’s European partners. This article examines how the leading official proposals fell short. And it presents two, simpler proposals better aligned with battlefield realities. The article also explores the evolution of US, Ukrainian, Russian, and West European public opinion on the war. The Russia-Ukraine war has been a disaster – not only for the two principal combatants, who together have suffered 300,000 deaths, but for the entire world. This fact drives the imperative to end this conflict forthwith via negotiated compromise. Yet, as the article shows, none of the official proposals embrace this imperative. Instead, all exhibit efforts to win advantage for one side or the other. They are instances of diplo-fare – war by means of diplomacy. As such, their aim may be rejection not agreement, with an eye toward painting one’s opponent as intransigent and, in this way, build support for continuing the fight – or, in the case of President Trump’s preference, establish a pretext for US withdrawal. The simplest proposals may be the most practicable but these must reflect current battlefield realities rather than attempting to “correct” or “re-balance” them. This principle guides the independent cease-fire options suggested in this article. Otherwise, the article explores the possibility that Europe’s so-called Coalition of the Willing will respond to any serious fracture of Kyiv’s effort – a distinct possibility – by establishing a new nuclearized Europe-vs-Russia “central front” inside Ukraine. (With an Appendix summarizing the official November and December peace proposal texts.)
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, European Union, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

2. Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security

Author:
Areig Elhag
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong the war in Sudan. At a moment that should have seen renewed momentum toward a political settlement in Sudan, reports suggest that Pakistan, with Saudi mediation, is nearing completion of a $1.5 billion arms deal with the war-torn country. Far from being a routine arms transaction, the deal encompasses Karakoram-8 aircraft, more than 200 drones, and air defense systems. It also potentially includes JF-17 multirole fighter jets, produced jointly by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. This development points to a deeper regional shift away from sponsoring dialogue and toward a military resolution to the Sudanese conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Regional Security, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, and Sudan

3. Prospects for Syria-Israel Relations

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel may believe the tense status quo is sustainable, but Washington is frustrated about the potential implications for Arab normalization, Turkish military friction, and near-term economic plans.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

4. The Recognition of The Palestinian Statehood and itsImplication to International Diplomacy

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The recognition of Palestinian statehood has re‑emerged as a pivotal issue in internationaldiplomacy, reshaping alliances and testing the limits of symbolic acts in global politics. While 147UN member states now recognize Palestine, this acknowledgment remains contested, particularlyby Israel and its closest allies. The debate underscores the tension between symbolism andsubstance: recognition strengthens legitimacy but does not automatically deliver stability or peace. For Africa, the Palestinian case resonates with unresolved sovereignty disputes such as WesternSahara and Somaliland. It highlights the importance of collective positions, effective mediation,and reforms in global governance systems. The African Union and subregional blocs havehistorically intervened in contested sovereignties, but their capacity remains constrained by limitedresources and weak enforcement mechanisms. This brief argues that recognition must be paired with tangible reforms, inclusive dialogue, andinstitutional strengthening. For African states, the lesson is clear: declarations alone areinsufficient. By leveraging recognition diplomatically, advocating for UN Security Council reform, and enhancing AU mediation frameworks, Africa can transform symbolic acts into meaningfulsteps toward peace, stability, and equitable global governance.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Equity, and Recognition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

5. Restraint and Diplomacy in Arctic Policy: Cooperation Amid U.S.-Russia-China Tensions

Author:
Pavel Devyatkin
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
In recent years, the Arctic has become the site of both great-power cooperation and competition. While the 2025 Alaska summit between Presidents Putin and Trump reflected a thaw in U.S.–Russia relations, U.S. interest in acquiring Greenland has cast doubt on continued U.S. cooperation with both Russia and China in the region. This brief details how a combination of restraint and proactive diplomacy in the Arctic — built upon shared interests and a recognition of competitive coexistence — will best serve the United States. The second Trump administration has called for American Arctic dominance, viewing the region as an energy source and as an opportunity to monopolize resources and to establish its Western Hemisphere force posture. Russia views the Arctic through a similar lens of resources and sovereignty, as it ramps up its military presence while intensifying efforts to extract natural resources. China’s influence in the region has steadily increased, as it collaborates with Russia, while advancing scientific research, sustainable development, and multilateral climate cooperation. The United States has come to see increasing Russia–China collaboration in the Arctic as a threat to U.S. national interests. But rather than responding to this deepening relationship through unilateralism, the U.S. should recognize that competitive coexistence and trilateral cooperation are more beneficial. This approach avoids zero-sum confrontation and minimizes accidental escalation while maintaining U.S. force projection, maximizing resource extraction, and promoting scientific collaboration. Toward this end, this brief recommends that the Trump administration: Establish trilateral maritime safety and search-and-rescue, SAR, operations, a system that exchanges real-time information, conducts joint training exercises, and invests in port and coast guard infrastructure. Such cooperation would lower shipping costs, improve safety, and encourage economic development — goals shared by the United States, Russia, and China. Institutionalize direct, reliable U.S.–Russia–China communication channels, including a dedicated Arctic hotline for incident reporting and a security digital platform for real-time vessel tracking. Such transparency minimizes the chances of miscalculation, particularly with nuclear assets in the region. Revitalize the Arctic Council to enable communication among the three major powers, the eight Arctic states, and Indigenous representatives. Initiate a trilateral arms control framework, using reductions in Arctic military exercises as a springboard for broader arms control and security arrangements.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Strategic Competition, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

6. Turkey–Israel Relations: Strategic Context and Policy Considerations

Author:
Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Between Ankara’s regional ambition, ideological and religious zeal, and economic vulnerability—implications for Israel’s security and diplomacy
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

7. Parliamentary Diplomacy and Normative Contestation after Coups d’État in West Africa

Author:
Nádia Teresa dos Santos Loureiro
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article examines how international parliamentary organisations (IPOs) engage with situations of constitutional rupture following coups d’état in West Africa, focusing on political transitions in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea (Conakry) between 2020 and 2023. It addresses how parliamentary actors, lacking coercive authority, engage in contexts marked by military takeovers, suspended constitutional frameworks and contested political legitimacy. Drawing on a constructivist and post-Westphalian perspective, the article conceptualises parliamentary diplomacy operating through discursive practices and symbolic positioning. Empirically, the analysis examines the responses of the Pan-African Parliament (PAP) and the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) based on qualitative documentary analysis of resolutions, statements and institutional reports. The findings show that, despite significant political and structural constraints, IPOs contribute to articulating expectations of legitimate governance by problematising the marginalisation of parliaments and reaffirming representative institutions as expressions of popular sovereignty
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Legitimacy, Coup, and Parliamentary Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso

8. Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and Prospects

Author:
Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Barely two months into his presidency of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte attended the 2016 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. The former mayor of Davao City had just swept the presidential election to become the first executive from outside of the Manila-based political establishment. Rather than reading a scripted speech, he launched into an impromptu tirade about colonial atrocities by the United States. Duterte went on to defend his violent war on drugs and rebut the criticisms of his equally violent purge of suspected criminals.1 The world was shocked by the bad manners exhibited by Duterte, especially his insult to then U.S. president Barack Obama.2 This was the beginning of the shift in Philippine foreign policy toward a more populist, illiberal, and revisionist posture—one that would last until Duterte’s presidency ended in 2022. This essay advances two core arguments about how Duterte’s right-wing populism shaped Philippine foreign policy. First, Duterte’s foreign policy was not motivated by an ideology, so much as by a performance anchored in symbolic defiance, personalized diplomacy, and selective norm rejection.3 Second, Duterte’s populist revisionism ultimately collided with entrenched structural constraints, including the country’s enduring security dependence on the United States, institutional resistance within the bureaucracy, and the democratic political succession that brought the nonpopulist President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to power. Taken together, these constraints exposed the limits of populist foreign policy in a small and militarily vulnerable state situated on the front lines of the U.S.-China rivalry. Since Duterte was elected, there has been widespread recognition that populism’s impact goes beyond national borders. In Europe, for instance, populists tended not to touch traditional foreign policy and security issues until the 2015 refugee crisis. The wave of populism that followed was marked by a contempt for the cosmopolitan European outlook that had long underpinned support for the European Union, liberal migration policies, and Europe’s reliance on the United States for its security.4 Populists on both the left and right are often skeptical of multilateral institutions because they restrain state power. Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chávez, for example, attempted to form alternative regional institutions in the Americas to counter U.S. hegemony.5 The revisionist impulse inherent in populism inclines its leaders toward foreign policy adventurism, even though abrupt shifts are uncommon given the durability of national strategic interests. Populist leaders also often exhibit a high risk tolerance—especially personalist leaders in command of highly concentrated state power.6 Moreover, they often see foreign policy as a means of weakening their political opponents and consolidating power at home. They also crave international recognition, which they pursue through “megaphone diplomacy” that foregrounds their personality and charisma.7 The burden of managing foreign relations is bearable for the populist up to the point that strategic reality intervenes, imposing itself in ways that leave scant room for performance. Populist politics, therefore, are unable to resist the water’s edge. This essay proceeds by tracing the right-wing populist currents in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte through three major international issues: disputes with China in the South China Sea, the attempted abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States, and the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Respectively, each of these issues foregrounds one of the foundations of Philippine foreign policy that Duterte attempted to undermine: international law, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, and human rights. The essay goes on to analyze how these foreign policy stances resonated with the revisionist orientations of countries that Duterte sought inspiration from—namely China and Russia. These revisionist narratives were reinforced in the Philippines through domestic disinformation networks that learned strategies from Russia and China.8 Finally, the essay highlights the implications of Duterte’s populist policies under the Marcos Jr. administration and examines the prospects of their revival in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Populism, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

9. An Unbowed Petro Successfully Plays the Diplomat

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s positive meeting with Trump stands to benefit not only his coalition, but also the region writ large.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, Regional Politics, and Gustavo Petro
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

10. Diplomacy Meets Paradiplomacy: Unpacking Central Government Responses through Evidence from Turkey’s Paradiplomac

Author:
Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Emrah Atar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This study examines the central government’s response to the paradiplomacy of sub-state actors through an analysis of the Turkish case, using a qualitative approach. As part of this research, a total of twelve face-to-face or virtual interviews were conducted with the representatives from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marmara Municipalities Union, and academics between June 2023 and November 2023. It views paradiplomacy as an outcome of the ongoing trend to localize diplomacy and aims to identify varying central government responses to paradiplomacy. These responses are analyzed using a three-fold categorization: positive, negative and mixed. The characteristics of each category explored in the context of the Turkish case. The study suggests that, despite the central government’s opportunistic approach to paradiplomacy, its response has shown a cyclical tendency. The central government’s stance on paradiplomacy is therefore complex and politically driven. It fluctuates along a broad spectrum, ranging from direct support to outright exclusion. This reflects the shifting political dynamics in Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Governance, Municipalities, and Sub-state Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

11. Diplomacy in the Foreground. The New EU Migration Policy Framework

Author:
Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The migration, asylum and visa strategies, presented at the end of January this year by the European Commission, set the framework for EU migration policy for the coming years. According to both documents' assumptions, migration diplomacy is intended to support the Union's security and global competitiveness priorities. The planned reforms aim to eliminate abuses of the asylum and visa system and to attract skilled workers and investment to the EU. The implementation of the strategy will be challenged by both instability in Europe's neighbourhood and the persistent reluctance of member states to accept migrants.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Asylum, Visa, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

12. Tech Diplomacy and Avenues for Digital Development in Africa

Author:
Folashadé Soulé
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Tech diplomacy in Africa is gaining traction as a vital tool for advancing foreign policy goals, fostering regional integration, promoting economic development and attracting investments. It involves leveraging digital technologies and platforms to enhance communication, engage citizens and shape narratives on the global stage. Although challenges persist, African nations are actively exploring opportunities to build sovereign digital capabilities and participate in shaping global digital governance. Tech diplomacy will be critical to how Africa engages with itself as new and emerging technologies increasingly demand collaboration, whether in cross-border data flows, shared compute infrastructure, talent development and mobility, or digital public goods, including fair taxation regimes that make African countries more competitive globally than with one another. A stronger and more cohesive continental approach to tech diplomacy will ultimately enable the continent to build resilience and engage with other regions from a position of strength.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Data Governance, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

13. Lessons from the 2025 G7 Cycle: Quantum, AI and Science Diplomacy

Author:
Michael P. A. Murphy
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The 2025 G7 convened at a time of international instability. Nevertheless, its meetings achieved meaningful progress on emerging technologies. The 2025 G7 cycle’s outputs focused on scope, rather than concluding with a wide-ranging statement about geopolitical order, a fundamentally different perspective for middle powers. Michael P. A. Murphy argues that middle powers can use strategies of science diplomacy to navigate the current instability of international relations. Technical aspects of science policy have the potential to facilitate continued cooperation amid growing international tensions, as has been demonstrated by the key emerging technology outputs of the 2025 G7 cycle, and by emphasizing technical cooperation rather than debates on international order, middle powers can support the resilience of international institutions.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, G7, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Emerging Powers’ Engagement in International Organizations: The Case of Vietnam’s Multilateral Diplomacy

Author:
Tran Chi Trung and Hoang Hien Thuong
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
It is widely believed that, with greater political and economic influence, emerging powers are increasingly playing larger roles within international institutions, ranging from global organisations, regional organisations, to various alternative platforms of minilateralism or coalition of the willing. Despite growing debates about the motivations of emerging powers when engaging in both new regional organisations and existing global institutions, there is limited research explaining this from the perspective of these nations. Hence, this article addresses this gap by studying the case of Vietnam’s multilateral diplomacy since 2021. The article adopts a qualitative research design, combining discourse analysis of official speeches, policy documents, and a case study of Vietnam’s participation in international and regional organisations following the new foreign policy direction of Viet Nam since 2021. We argue that while Vietnam and other emerging powers share a common aspiration for a more multipolar and equitable international order, their multilateral strategies diverge according to distinct priorities and challenges. After its 13th National Congress in 2021, Vietnam’s foreign policy focuses on leveraging multilateral institutions to heighten the country's international influence and position. Aiming to become a regional leader, Viet Nam has been more proactive in leading ASEAN’s agenda and pathways forward, advancing its convening capacity, and acting as a linchpin between ASEAN and regional and international organisations. While at the global level, Viet Nam is stepping up as a sectoral leader, focusing on new fields and domains of global governance to shape a conducive future for its national development path.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Organization, Multilateralism, ASEAN, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

15. Analysis of Emerging Powers Joining to International and Regional Organisations: Intentions and Implications

Author:
Mojtaba Eskandari, Farhad Farahani, Somayeh Hamidi, and Sara Torabian
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The significant growth of regional and global cooperation in economic, military, and ideological areas is a common feature of modern diplomacy, as states have been continuously expanding these efforts. In today's geopolitics, these collaborations are not limited to specific regions but extend to superregional and global levels; this is evident in emerging powers that seek to increase their global influence through mutual agreements and the creation of regional or international organisations. The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategic considerations behind emerging powers' involvement in multilateral frameworks. Being part of international and regional organisations allows them to coordinate efforts and play a vital role in shaping the international order. To achieve this goal, a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis will be used, including analysis of documents, policies, expert reviews, and historical case studies.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Organization, Regional Cooperation, International Order, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations

Author:
Nicholas Burns and Yasheng Huang
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 Speakers: Nicholas Burns is the Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He is the founder and faculty chair of the Future of Diplomacy Project and a faculty affiliate at Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Burns worked in the United States government for over three decades, serving six presidents and nine secretaries of state. Most recently, he served as the US ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 2021-2025, leading public servants from forty-eight US government agencies at the US mission to China in overseeing one of America's most important bilateral relationships. Moderator: Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He also serves as the faculty director of the MIT-China Program at the Center for International Studies. From 2013 to 2017, he served as an associate dean of MIT Sloan’s GlobalPartnership programs and its Action Learning initiatives. His previous appointments include faculty positions at the University of Michigan and at Harvard Business School. Huang is the author of 11 books in both English and Chinese and of many academic papers. His most recent book, “The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to its Decline”, was a 2023 Best Book of the Year by Foreign Affairs magazine.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

17. IMEC 2.0: A New Regional Vision After the Gaza War

Author:
Gedaliah Afterman
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was launched as a transport and connectivity initiative linking India, the Gulf, and Europe. That logic remains relevant, but the post-Gaza regional environment demands a broader and more resilient design. Political constraints have tightened, Israel’s room for manoeuvre has narrowed, and regional cooperation is increasingly shaped by risk management rather than visibility. In this context, IMEC cannot function effectively as a linear corridor alone. This paper argues for reframing IMEC as a networked regional architecture, IMEC 2.0, that integrates physical infrastructure with digital systems, energy transition, economic stabilisation, and diplomatic coordination. This approach reflects current regional realities more accurately, allows cooperation to advance unevenly and in sequence, and reduces political exposure without stalling momentum. For Israel, IMEC 2.0 offers a way to re-anchor itself in the region through practical contribution leading to political normalisation. The paper assesses the post-Gaza regional landscape, maps the constraints and opportunities facing Israel, and outlines how a networked IMEC can support regional integration, stabilisation, and long-term economic resilience. It argues that the central risk for Israel is not only exclusion by design, but marginalisation through delay. Early positioning, including credible action on the Palestinian front within emerging regional architectures, will determine whether Israel helps shape the systems that define regional connectivity or is forced to adapt to them later.
Topic:
2023 Gaza War, India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), Diplomacy, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Middle East, India, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

18. Normalization Through Strength? A Dual Israeli–Saudi Examination of Power, Perception, and the Limits of Military-Centric

Author:
Eitan Ishai
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper examines the concept of “normalization through strength” through a dual Israeli-Saudi lens, arguing that military power alone cannot generate sustainable regional integration. Tracing the rise of this framework within Israeli strategic thinking – especially after the Abraham Accords and following October 7 – the paper shows how Israeli leaders and much of the public came to believe that demonstrations of force could substitute for diplomacy and political compromise. Juxtaposing this with the Saudi perspective, which prioritizes stability, predictability, territorial integrity, and political legitimacy, the paper demonstrates how the same Israeli actions interpreted domestically as deterrence were perceived in Riyadh as destabilizing and risky. Focusing on the Israeli-Saudi case, it argues that “normalization through strength” failed not because Israel lacked power, but because power was decoupled from restraint, diplomacy, and credible political horizons – most notably regarding the Palestinian issue. The paper concludes that future normalization depends less on raw strength than on reliability: the ability to embed military capability within a coherent diplomatic strategy grounded in restraint, accountability, and regional stability.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

19. Divergent Paths in the South Caucasus: Strategy, Survival, Retreat

Author:
Laura Linderman
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
When President Donald Trump welcomed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the White House in August 2025, the ceremony celebrated more than just the hope that decades of conflict between the two neighboring states might finally be coming to an end. The agreement initialed that day, which grants the United States long‑term development rights to a transit corridor ambitiously named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), marked a watershed moment in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. For the first time in modern history, a major peace process in the region had bypassed Moscow entirely in favor of Western mediation. Yet the TRIPP agreement’s deeper significance lies not in American diplomatic triumph, but in what it reveals about a regional transformation—and the limits of that transformation. Russia’s war in Ukraine has created a window of opportunity for the South Caucasus, a moment when Moscow’s strategic distraction has given regional states unprecedented room to maneuver. The question is not whether this window exists, it clearly does, but how long it will remain open, and which states have the capacity to exploit it before it closes. The answers vary dramatically. The South Caucasus has moved from what Zbigniew Brzezinski famously called the “grand chessboard,” where great powers moved regional states as pawns, to what Svante E. Cornell and Damjan Krnjević Mišković describe in the introduction to their edited volume, titled After Karabakh: War, Peace, and the forging of a New Caucasus (2025), as a “card table,” where each state holds its own sovereign hand of playing cards. But not all hands are equal. Azerbaijan sits at the card table with a strong hand, leveraging energy resources, geographic indispensability, and military victory to extract value from multiple powers simultaneously. Armenia plays a weak hand the best it can under the circumstances, having initiated much of the TRIPP process to escape isolation and avoid being further diminished by Azerbaijan; a survival strategy, but a strategy nonetheless. And one could say that it looks as if Georgia has lit its best cards on fire or eaten them, with its government seemingly choosing preservation over strategic opportunity. The scene at the metaphorical card table after the most recent hand has been dealt is not, as some Western commentators have assumed, a straightforward regional pivot away from Russia toward the West. Nor is it the emergence of a coherent new form of sovereignty. It is something messier: three states responding to the same geopolitical shock with radically different resources, constraints, and choices. The West has increasingly set aside the post‑Cold War vision of liberal internationalism, with its emphasis on open markets, multilateral institutions, and shared sovereignty, in favor of a more transactional approach to statecraft. States the world over, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, are adapting to this reality, but adaptation looks very different depending on whether you’re negotiating from strength or desperation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, International Order, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

20. Local Care and Feminist Foreign Policy: Lessons Learned from Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS

Author:
Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
As feminist foreign policies face growing political backlash around the world, questions remain about how states can ensure these policies are grounded in the lived realities of the communities they seek to serve. One way to bridge the gap between international commitments and domestic implementation is through the care economy. This policy paper examines Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS—publicly funded community centers that provide care services, educational opportunities, cultural programming, and support for economic autonomy. Drawing on field research and interviews with policymakers, civil society representatives, and community members, the paper explores how these centers embody feminist principles through an intersectional approach to care, gender equality, and social inclusion. The paper argues that initiatives like the UTOPÍAS demonstrate how local governments can advance transformative care policies while contributing to broader feminist foreign policy goals. It highlights the potential of municipal feminist diplomacy and city-to-city exchanges as avenues for sharing innovative approaches to care, human security, and gender equality across borders.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, Feminism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City