Topic: Climate Change - CIAO Search Results

1. Politicization, Ratification of International Agreements, and Domestic Political Competition in Non-Democracies: The Case of Iran and the Paris Climate Accords

Author:: Reşat Bayer and Bijan Tafazzoli
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: While some degree of competition is present in many authoritarian regimes, the implications of such controlled competition on international issues have not received much consideration, including towards international environmental accords. We attempt to rectify this through a framework where we focus on internal political competition in a hybrid, nondemocratic system where national elections are held regularly. Specifically, we argue that the presence of multiple actors competing in elections in nondemocratic settings results in them assuming positions on various issues, justifying their positions, and attempting to mobilize their supporters with considerable implications for international environmental policies. We display our argument in the context of Iranian debates on the ratification of the Paris Climate Accords. Our findings demonstrate that the competing Iranian sides rely on different justifications for their environmental positions, resulting in extensive (negative) competitions of rhetoric where the international dimension emerges as an important feature in the internal competition. Overall, we show that political competition within non-democracies is likely to add to the complexity of international (environmental) negotiations and cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Elections, Paris Agreement, Narrative, and Regime Survival
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

2. From Interconnection to Integration: German-Italian Energy Relations and the SoutH2 Corridor

Author:: Pier Paolo Raimondi and Wolfgang Münchau
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 22 November 2023, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, signed a German-Italian Action Plan.[1] The Plan promises greater collaboration between the two countries on the biggest challenges currently facing Europe. Among these priorities is environmentally sustainable economic growth and the acceleration of climate protection. While the Action Plan is relatively terse, focusing on the establishment of fora for greater cooperation rather than providing a detailed roadmap, its energy and climate section does highlight a specific project as an example of closer cooperation: the acceleration of the completion of the so-called South-Central Corridor for the transport of hydrogen throughout Europe. This Corridor has the primary function of enabling the import of hydrogen produced in North Africa into the very core of Europe and thus to the high-demand areas of Germany and Northern Italy. One especially important part is the so-called SouthH2 Corridor, which includes a pipeline running the entire length of the Italian peninsula before connecting to Southern Germany via Austria. There are strong political and strategic arguments for a deeper energy cooperation between Italy and Germany, despite some differences.[2] Hydrogen and gas infrastructure is a key area where intensified cooperation is crucial.[3] Through the SouthH2 Corridor, the two countries have indeed expressed their willingness to collaborate precisely on hydrogen infrastructure, notably the SoutH2 Corridor. However, such cooperation cannot be limited to the infrastructural part; it must extend to a series of related issues in which both countries should seek to align their political and legal initiatives, starting from overcoming uncertainties regarding the development of hydrogen demand and the use of other net-zero technologies in both countries. In short, cooperation on infrastructure can be used as a jumping off point for a deeper collaboration on and exchange of information about their broader transition strategies. Such bilateral coordination would also contribute to the achievement of EU Green Deal objectives more broadly.
Topic:: Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Regional Integration, Pipeline, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Italy

3. The State of EU-US Digital and Energy Cooperation

Author:: Federica Marconi, Wolfgang Münchau, and Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In a time of rapid technological advancements and changing energy paradigms, the European Union and the United States are trying to coordinate their efforts to navigate the complexities of an ever-evolving landscape. Transatlantic dialogues and cooperative endeavours are key mechanisms for mitigating tensions and fostering a common assessment of the opportunities and risks arising from these advancements. Critical in this regard are the problems of governance emanating from technological development and its consequences in the digital sphere as well as the delicate balance between security, competitiveness and environmental targets in the energy dimension.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Digital Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

4. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities

Author:: Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

5. The Economy in its Labyrinth: A Structuralist View of the Mexican Economy in the 21st Century

Author:: Liz Monroy Gomez Franco
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In this paper, I analyze the performance of the Mexican economy during the two decades of the 21st century. I focus on the aggregate and sectoral dynamics of the economy to understand the underlying dynamics behind the aggregate performance of the economy. With these results in mind, I analyze the changes and continuities in the conduction of macroeconomic and labor market policy with the arrival of a new administration in 2018. The goal of analyzing both elements is to provide an integrated view of the situation in which the Mexican economy will face three structural challenges: the medium and long-run effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of artificial intelligence into the production process, and climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Political Economy, History, Macroeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

6. General Equilibrium Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System

Author:: Xianling Long, Da Zhang, Lawrence Goulder, and Chenfei Qu
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China introduced the world's largest emissions trading system in 2021 which is intended to help cost-effectively achieve its pledges of reaching a peak in CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. The system is a tradable performance standard (TPS) with a bottom-up intensity-based emissions cap, unlike a top-down absolute cap approach commonly used globally. General Equilibrium Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System developed and applied a multi-sector, multi-period general equilibrium model to assess the emissions, energy mix, and economic impacts of a series of options for the future development of this policy. These included cap-setting, benchmark design, auction design, and sectoral expansion, with valuable insights provided on the potential future evolution of this policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

7. Getting Indonesia to Net Zero

Author:: Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: As one of the world’s fastest growing economies, Indonesia has committed to using its sustainable transition to drive green and inclusive growth. Recent steps taken by President Joko Widodo in the lead-up to Indonesia hosting the G20 summit in November 2022 underscore the country’s ambition to mitigate its emissions – including releasing a plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 or sooner, endorsing the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement at COP26, and enhancing Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution ahead of COP27. The Getting Indonesia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero explores how Indonesia can further accelerate its transition to a resilient, net zero emissions economy while benefitting its people and its place in the world. The report is based on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that shows the opportunities and trade-offs associated with different pathways for Indonesia to meet its current and more ambitious emissions reduction targets. As the report’s analysis illustrates, implementing Indonesia’s current net zero strategy could boost Indonesia’s mid-term GDP by as much as 5% by 2032, create up to two million new jobs by 2039, and ultimately improve Indonesia’s trade balance by $48 billion. Moreover, by aiming for net zero emissions by 2050 instead of 2060 while prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind, Indonesia could reduce its net zero investment needs by $3.8 trillion and peak its carbon emissions as early as 2027. In this latter scenario, the adverse impact of the net zero transition on household spending could also be cut by half. The report also outlines a roadmap for how Indonesia could realize these and other benefits by prioritizing climate policies that concurrently address development challenges, reforming the energy market structure to favor solar and wind, and leveraging green industries to advance a just transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

8. The Transition From an Intensity to an Absolute Emissions Cap in China’s National Emissions Trading System

Author:: Duan Maosheng
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The unique characteristics of China's economic development and electricity marketization have resulted in the implementation of a bottom-up intensity-based emissions cap in China’s national emissions trading system (ETS) in its early stages. However, the efficacy of the bottom-up cap-setting approach remains controversial, particularly with regard to achieving emission reduction goals and cost-effectiveness. In response to China's "dual carbon" targets and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), China’s national ETS shall gradually shift towards a real cap-and-trade system, with a transition period when a hybrid system, which has an absolute control cap beside the intensity cap, is implemented. The Transition from an Intensity to an Absolute Emissions Cap in China’s National Emissions Trading System examines the cap-setting approaches used in ETSs in China, the underlying reasons for choosing intensity caps in China, and major issues related to the transition from an intensity cap to an absolute cap in China’s national ETS.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9. Getting Asia to Net Zero

Author:: Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In March 2023, the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a key report stating that the Earth has already warmed by 1.1°C and that no additional fossil fuel infrastructure can be built and used while still holding warming to under 1.5°C. In response, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for countries to hit “fast-forward” on their net zero commitments, with developed economies to aim for net zero by 2040, and emerging economies to target 2050. The Getting Asia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero presents another compelling reason for the Asia-Pacific region to align behind achieving net zero emissions by mid-century: taking more ambitious climate action and reducing emissions sooner could enhance the region’s economic and social development. The report draws on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that examines the costs, benefits, and trade-offs of the Asia-Pacific’s options to implement its current and more ambitious mitigation targets, as well as how variations in the power sector mix could enhance development while meeting climate goals. According to the analysis, hitting net zero emissions by 2050 could increase the Asia-Pacific's gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 6.3 percent above projected levels and generate as many as 36.5 million additional jobs by the 2030s, as compared to the 5 percent GDP boost and 25.1 million additional jobs that current climate commitments could generate. A net zero 2050 pathway could also lead to energy cost savings of $270 billion for local households and improve the region's trade balance by as much as $827 billion, largely due to a reduction in fossil fuel dependence. Prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind power could help the Asia-Pacific avoid $2.2 trillion in investment requirements. The report also recognizes potential challenges associated with the transition to net zero and proposes solutions, such as facilitating the flow of international finance to mitigate adverse impacts on household spending and developing comprehensive plans to help displaced fossil fuel workers take advantage of new employment opportunities. In 2023, Asia has another compelling opportunity to globally step up on climate. A confluence of major multilateral processes will take place in the Asian region, including the G7 in Japan, the G20 in India, and the 28th UN Climate Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates on behalf of the Asia-Pacific Group. Moreover, the first Global Stocktake at COP28 in December 2023 will assess the global state of progress and remaining gaps to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals. The commissioned modeling shows that aligning the Asia-Pacific’s climate ambition with a 1.5°C trajectory is not only possible — it could also be the more beneficial path forward for the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Asia

10. China, climate change and the energy transition

Author:: Professor Xu Yi-Chong
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report surveys China’s enormous energy transition to renewables. It begins by sketching the energy challenges China faces and its climate-change-related energy policies, in the context of the global geopolitics of the energy transformation. Next the report focuses on conventional energy sources (oil and natural gas), followed by electricity, and energy technologies. Although the report is intended primarily to survey developments to date, it concludes with some brief observations about the considerable energy challenges China faces in the years ahead.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

11. China, climate and conflict in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Anastasia Kapetas
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This paper surveys the current reporting and analysis on climate and security to explore the implications that climate change may have for China’s ability to prosecute its security goals in the region’s three major hotspots: the SCS, Taiwan and the India–China border conflict. Those three hotspots all involve longstanding border and territorial disputes between China and other nations and may draw in various levels of US involvement should China continue to escalate tensions.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

12. The Persistent Consequences of the Energy Transition in Appalachia’s Coal Country

Author:: Eleanor Krause
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The persistence and intensification of earnings, employment, and opportunity gaps across place has become an increasingly salient feature of the United States economy over the past several decades.1 This economic divergence has occurred alongside a remarkable transition away from coal-fired electricity that is expected to continue as lower-carbon energy sources become more economically viable. While essential to minimizing the damages of climate change, the shift poses significant challenges to the relatively rural and distressed communities traditionally reliant on this resource. Indeed, many historically coal-dependent communities in Central Appalachia have long been characterized by deep poverty, limited employment opportunities, and high rates of public assistance, and recurrent adverse shocks to coal employment over the past several decades have amplified many of these qualities, potentially elevating the risks associated with the energy and economic shifts ahead. How have Appalachia’s coal-dependent communities adjusted to historical and contemporary declines in demand for coal, and how do these shocks – and their consequences for the educational composition of affected communities – influence the capacity for future generations to adapt to new challenges? In this policy brief, I present estimates of how Appalachia’s coal country has adjusted to recent declines in coal mining employment (“coal shocks”), and I demonstrate how this adjustment process is, in part, dictated by the persistent consequences of historical employment shocks in Appalachia. The evidence suggests that recent coal shocks (i.e., declines in coal employment occurring between 2007 and 2017) have been relatively painful for affected communities, causing large reductions in local population sizes, declines in local employment counts, declines in earnings, and increases in the rate of government transfer receipt. All of these adjustment costs are more severe in counties with a history of “selective migration” induced by shifting employment opportunities in the 1980s. That is, the estimated effect of recent coal shocks on population sizes, employment, earnings, and transfer payments is significantly larger in counties that lost greater numbers of their college-educated adults in the 1980s thanks to historical employment shocks in proximate labor markets. The upshot is that coal-dependent communities may demonstrate little resilience to recent coal shocks in part because of the persistent consequences of historical shocks, which fundamentally altered the educational composition of affected communities. By dramatically reducing the number of college-educated individuals living in a community, adverse shocks have the capacity to put places on a pathway of decline that makes it more difficult to adapt to economic shifts in subsequent generations. These insights preview the potentially damaging implications of future contractions in the coal industry, revealing the need for greater empirical investigation of the types of policy efforts that might ameliorate the painful local adjustment costs associated with the energy transition going forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, Employment, Coal, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Appalachia

13. Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China

Author:: Zichong Chen and Daniel Jacob
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions released its first publication in May 2023: a research brief titled “Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China.” The Initiative is one of five interdisciplinary research clusters funded by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University. The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements collaborates in the implementation of the Initiative. The brief summarizes research by Professor Daniel Jacob and postdoctoral fellow Zichong Chen, atmospheric scientists at Harvard University, with their colleagues. Jacob and Chen use high-resolution data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), onboard a satellite launched in 2017, to estimate national and sectoral methane emissions more accurately than has been possible in the past. They draw upon atmospheric transport models to invert the satellite observations of methane concentrations, using advanced statistical methods, and infer emissions quantities and locations from the observed atmospheric concentrations. This method has yielded generally higher estimates of emissions than in previous reports, including in the case of China. Future methane-initiative briefs will address similar research the authors and their colleagues are conducting in the United States, Latin America, North Africa, and other countries and regions. An accurate picture of aggregate and sector-level methane emissions is important to better target mitigation policies. It is hoped that the results of the research described here and in subsequent briefs will advance national efforts and international collaboration aimed at reducing methane emissions. The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions seeks meaningful and sustained progress in global methane-emissions reductions through research and effective engagement with policymakers in government and key stakeholders in business, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions. Reduced methane emissions can significantly reduce, in the near term, the magnitude of climate change and its associated impacts. The Initiative’s objectives span the full range of disciplines and topics associated with this challenge. Among its objectives are to build on scientific research on measurement and attribution of emissions; understand legal, regulatory, and political opportunities and constraints to methane-emissions reductions in the United States; design policies that might best contribute to methane emissions reduction; work effectively through existing international venues, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; and define roles that business and international and multilateral organizations can play in this effort.
Topic:: Climate Change, Methane, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

14. The Science of Rapid Climate Change in Alaska and the Arctic: Sea Ice, Land Ice, and Sea Level

Author:: John P. Holdren
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Earth’s surface north of the Arctic Circle, which includes nearly a third of Alaska, is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average.1 Alaska as a whole is warming twice as fast as the lower 48 states.2 As is true for most of the manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, moreover, the extremes of temperature are growing faster than the averages: the highest-ever temperature north of the Arctic Circle—100.4°F—was recorded in Verkhoyansk, Siberia, in June 2020;3 Anchorage reached an all-time high of 90°F on July 4, 2019;4 and Utqiavgik, Alaska, the northernmost U.S. city, reached an all-time winter high of 40°F in December 2022.5 The reasons warming is so fast in the Far North are quite well understood scientifically. The most important factor is the ice-snow-albedo feedback, in which warming reduces the area of land and water covered by ice and snow, which means less reflectivity and more absorption of incident solar energy at the surface, hence further warming.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Sea Ice
Political Geography:: North America, Alaska, Arctic, and United States of America

15. Opportunities for Multilateral Cooperation on Climate Change in the Arctic

Author:: Jennifer Spence
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Climate change is complex, multi-dimensional, and far-reaching. The impacts of climate change are not uniform, however, and few regions are currently facing the rapid and dramatic effects being experienced in the Arctic. Being a region on the frontlines of climate change with sparse populations and limited infrastructure emphasizes the importance of leveraging opportunities for collaboration and coordination. The functions of multilateral cooperation in the Arctic related to climate change are multifold, including to: Deepen and accelerate understanding, Share experiences and lessons learned, Mobilize limited resources, Coordinate responses, and Collaborate on solutions.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Arctic

16. Climate change adaptation relevance of Tanzania’s national budget

Author:: Noah Pauline, Peter Rogers, Edmund Mabhuye, Beatrice Sumari, Lucas Katera, Jamal Msami, Per Tidemand, and Esbern Friis-Hansen
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In Tanzania, climate change adaptation is financed by international development assistance and by nationally generated revenue. While international development assistance is registered by OECD and climate change adaptation relevance tagged by donors, the proportion of the nationally generated revenue that is climate change adaptation relevant is unknown. This DIIS Working Paper analyses the climate change adaptation relevance of the national budget (from 2014 to 2022), using the same methodology applied in a previous study (Yanda et al., 2013). The study further assesses the degree to which climate change adaptation financed is devolved to local government. The study finds that a disproportionately high proportion of climate adaptation finance is used at central government levels due to priorities being established at the ministry level. Moreover, the study finds that local governments lack discretion over climate change adaptation finance due to the country’s highly centralised policies, practices and procedures. Qualitative fieldwork indicates that nearly all climate change adaptation finance accessed by local governments comes with a central government tag (directive) on how to use it.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Budget, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

17. Inclusion and exclusion in Somali drought emergency assistance

Author:: Ahmed Musa
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: When drought or other emergencies strike in the Somali regions, the first responders are Somalis themselves, not the international humanitarian system. Based on family, kinship and more distant social ties, Somalis mobilise and deliver various forms of emergency assistance to the affected communities. Yet, mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion vary significantly, pending on the closeness of social ties, the power relations between local and international actors, and the number and forms of intermediaries. In this new DIIS Working Paper, Ahmed M. Musa, examines such local and transnational humanitarian practices and the mechanisms of inclusion and inclusion that they entail. Focusing on instances of drought in Somaliland, Musa argues that emergency assistance based on close social ties observes the overall humanitarian principle of impartiality. There are challenges, however, particularly when the social ties are more distant, as in the case of government-led or international responses. This may be mitigated, Musa shows, by the social contract of reciprocity between givers and recipients of assistance, going hand in hand with social sanctions where people abstain from helping those in need. Familiarity is thus central for impartial and inclusive access to emergency assistance, rather than an obstacle. The paper is an output from the Diaspora Humanitarianism in Complex Crises (D-Hum) research project in which Musa was a postdoc between 2020 and 2022. D-Hum analyses how Somali diaspora actors and their local counterparts mobilise, channel and deliver humanitarian assistance to Somalia and Somaliland during complex humanitarian crises. The project is funded by the Danish Consultative Research Committee for Development Research (FFU). Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LinkedInSend link to page with mailPrint page
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Migration, Poverty, Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

18. Climate change actions in conflict affected contexts

Author:: Helene Maria Kyed and Justine Chambers
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Violent conflict and state oppression in Myanmar demonstrates the importance of placing conflict analysis and people-centred approaches at the centre of international programming on climate change and environmental protection. In 2021, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the impacts of the climate crisis will be particularly pronounced in poor and conflict-affected countries. Research also identifies climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ that, in combination with socio-political factors like poverty, state incapacity and inequality, can intensify violent conflict. However, gaps remain in how to address the increase in climate change vulnerabilities in contexts with violent conflict and state oppression. This is evident in Myanmar, where a historically repressive military regime is threatening to cause longer-term ‘climate collapse’. Since a military coup in February 2021, extractive activities and war economies are destroying the natural environment and placing communities at further risk of displacement, violent persecution and food shortages. These effects of conflict are reducing local people’s capacity to adapt to climate change and threatening civil society’s efforts to protect the environment. Under such conditions, climate change programming needs to place conflict analysis at its centre stage and substitute state-centric and purely technical approaches with people-centred ones, in alignment with the localisation of aid agenda.
Topic:: Climate Change, Democratization, Environment, Natural Resources, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

19. Most green funds do not have a sustainability impact

Author:: Jan Fichtner, Robin Jaspert, and Johannes Petry
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: ESG funds are growing rapidly. However, their impact on climate change mitigation and sustainability remains unclear. Recent research on the transmission mechanisms from sustainable finance to the real economy has identified key shortcomings that need to be addressed in order to reduce greenwashing and make these funds truly green.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Capitalism, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. What needs to change for green funds to be truly green

Author:: Jan Fichtner, Robin Jaspert, and Johannes Petry
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Green investment funds are growing rapidly. However, their impact on climate change mitigation and sustainability remains unclear. Recent research has identified key shortcomings that need to be addressed in order to reduce greenwashing and make these funds truly green. Green finance is playing an ever more prominent role in recent years. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds, which constitute a key pillar of green finance, saw record inflows of hundreds of billions of US-dollars in recent years, primarily by retail investors. Essentially, these ‘green’ funds are integrating environmental, social and governance criteria, such as greenhouse gas emissions, labour rights and gender diversity into their investment strategy. They claim to invest less in the stocks of firms that are highly polluting or have bad governance practices, and instead buy the shares of corporations that appear to be more sustainable. In industry and policy debates, ESG funds are often cited as advancing the promotion of sustainability and helping to address climate change. However, the ESG concept, its underlying criteria, and its potential effects are highly controversial. Many critics see ESG primarily as ‘window dressing’, with no significant positive impact – either for the environment or for investors and employees.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Oil, Gas, Capitalism, Sustainability, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. Climate resilience and Cook Islands' relationship of Free Association with Aotearoa / New Zealand

Author:: David J. Kilcullen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: On 1 January 2020, the Cook Islands was removed from the OECD Development Assistance Committee’s List of Official Development Assistance (ODA) Recipients. Having been assessed as a “high-income status country”, this re-classification rendered the Cook Islands ineligible for OECD development assistance. It was unfortunate timing. The Covid-19 pandemic hit a few months later and caused a significant contraction in the tourism sector on which the Cook Islands is economically dependent. The result was, by the government’s own description, a “severe recession” with a total contraction of -21.6% of GDP in 2020/ 2021. Thus, only months after being recognized as having a sufficiently high income as to no longer warrant OECD development-assistance, the Cook Islands lost nearly a quarter of its GDP. This was especially significant for a country that is particularly susceptible to climate change and weather-related hazards. The Cook Islands is made up of 15 coral atolls and volcanic islands. Over 90% of the residents of the 12 inhabited islands live within one kilometer of a coastline. In addition, its already modest population of just under 15,000 people is rapidly decreasing (down from approximately 17,500 in 2016), undermining social and economic resilience to shocks. Despite notable economic growth in the years preceding Covid-19, greater infrastructure and other investment remains essential to brace the country for future climate-related changes. A question thus arises as to the benefits of Free Association in circumstances where the former colony faces crises.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, History, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, New Zealand, and Cook Islands

22. Climate change, mobility and human trafficking in Ethiopia

Author:: Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Throughout history, demographic, economic, political, religious, and environmental developments have resulted in Ethiopian mobility, mainly within the country or neighbouring region, but also further afield. Although Ethiopia’s current migration rate is only about half of the sub-Saharan average of 2%, the combined effects of poverty, population growth, conflict, and climate change have led to a recent growth in international migration. Women make up half of these flows. Proximity to the Middle East has facilitated women’s migration for domestic work while simultaneously raised concern over human trafficking violations. International Human Rights and anti-trafficking organisations predict that the negative effects of climate change will increase the vulnerability to trafficking in persons, forced labour, sexual exploitation, and debt bondage. This policy brief draws on research carried out under the auspices of the collaborative ‘Governing Climate Migration’ (GCM) research programme to further explore how climate change, migration and human trafficking may interlink. It questions routine applications of the human trafficking label to irregular Ethiopian migrant domestic workers and suggests replacing it with a migration-trafficking continuum approach that takes life before, during and after migration into account.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Borders, Risk, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

23. Why adaptation projects do not stop climate-related migration

Author:: Lily Salloum Lindegaard, Nauja Kleist, Francis Jarawura, and Joseph Teye
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change constitutes a critical challenge for subsistence rain-fed agriculture in the Global South. Increasing temperatures, irregular rainfall, and dry spells have negative, sometimes devastating, consequences for rural communities. Harvest yields diminish or fail, the planting season becomes unpredictable, and the dry season may be prolonged. While subsistence farming has always been demanding in such areas, climate change amplifies these challenges. As a result, local communities draw on a range of alternative farming methods and livelihood strategies, ranging from employing different crops to seasonal or long-term migration. Migration as an adaptation strategy, however, is widely rejected by international donors, national governments and sometimes local authorities. Rather, these actors often aim to enhance and promote local agriculture or other locally based livelihoods through in-situ adaptation projects, or adapting in place. This can be through providing (or selling) inputs to increase yields, e.g. drought resistant seeds, fertilizers or pest control; promoting new farming techniques, e.g. climate smart or conservation agriculture; or improving access to key resources, for instance water access through irrigation. Affected communities are supposed to stay where they are – in other words, deal with the challenges on the ground.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, Natural Resources, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Global South

24. How to encourage private sector climate initiatives in Kenya

Author:: Judith Mulwa and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change is a particularly pertinent issue in Kenya because the country’s economy is highly dependent on its natural resource base (such as agriculture and fisheries), which are sensitive to temperature and rainfall variabilities. As a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kenya must work to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This requires significant financial resources. Per the UNFCCC framework, some national climate actions are not expected to receive financing from international financial sources. Therefore, the country must look for innovative ways of domestically sourcing finances for low-carbon development and climate resilience programmes. Kenya has, in this regard, set up and implemented a national climate fund for financing adaptation and mitigation projects, ideally from various sources, including the private sector. This policy brief explores the legal, price-based, property-based, and information-based incentives for private sector investment and engagement in climate adaptation and mitigation in Kenya. The analysis is based on desk research and 51 stakeholder interviews from identified private sector institutions and industries in Kenya.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Investment, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

25. Pressing Security Concerns in Southeast Asia: Next-Generation Perspectives

Author:: John Hemmings, Ariel Mota Alves, Attawat Joseph Ma Assavanadda, Fikry A. Rahman, Katrina Guanio, and Siu Tzyy Wei
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Southeast Asia is a pivotal sub-region of the Indo-Pacific. Spanning 1,700,000 square miles, its total population is 676 million – around 8.5% of the world’s population – and has a collective GDP of US$3.67 trillion (as of 2022). Over the years, it has been associated with both economic dynamism and significant security challenges. As authors in this volume note, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, disagreements over water rights in the Mekong Delta, and the current conflict in Myanmar highlight fault lines not only between Southeast Asian states themselves, but also between great powers such as China and the United States. There are many more – the EU, India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea – that pay close attention to developments in the sub-region. Maintaining peace and stability in a region that plays host to one-third of global sea-borne trade, hosts major undersea internet cables, and is a major thoroughfare for energy supplies from the Middle East to the advanced manufacturing hubs in China, Japan, and South Korea is both challenging and complicated. The primary mechanism for engagement with the individual countries in Southeast Asia has been through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its attendant bodies, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), and the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM). Meanwhile, ASEAN member states have promoted the principle of “ASEAN centrality” as a means to prevent major power interference in the sub-region and to retain influence over security cooperation within Southeast Asia and beyond. As a result, the acknowledgement of ASEAN centrality has become a “boilerplate” for strategy and policy documents related to regional security. One example of this is the inclusion of the principle in the 2021 U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. However, the increasingly pressing nature of challenges confronting the broader region, their speed and intensity, are beginning to outpace the evolution of institutions and processes associated with ASEAN. The ASEAN Way – an emphasis on informal consultation, non-interference, and consensus as the basis of major decisions – has been integral to creating internal cohesion and harmony within ASEAN decision-making and is an enabler of socio-political integration. On the other hand, it has also stymied efforts to develop effective collective responses to conflicts and has made ASEAN hostage to great powers able to use their influence over members to break consensus. While defenders of ASEAN point to its successes and remain confident that it will adapt to regional issues over time, others are increasingly skeptical that ASEAN can retain its status as the gatekeeper of regional security agenda. It is in this context that Pacific Forum carried out this extended study with support from the Luce Foundation to investigate Southeast Asian perspectives on the “biggest threats or most pressing security issues, now and in the foreseeable future.” We asked a group of our Southeast Asian cohort of Young Leaders (ages 21 to 35), what problems were most pressing to them, and asked them how they thought their countries should address these issues, noting which third-parties would be most important for them to leverage in doing so. We believe this publication, which cuts across a broad range of security issues, is a fair representation of the eclecticism and diversity that characterize the region itself and hope that our readers will find them as useful as we have here at Pacific Forum. The collection starts with traditional security issues and then moves to more non-traditional security issues, though this does not reflect any internal emphasis or prioritization on the part of the editors. The first essay, by Siu Tzyy Wei, is entitled “Caught in the Middle: The Measured Voice of Brunei’s Foreign Policy Amidst the South China Sea Dispute.” Beginning with the South China Sea is appropriate for any collective study on the region, but Brunei’s position as a “silent claimant” presents a perspective not often heard. The author’s assertion that it is China and external powers – AUKUS and the Quad are mentioned – that are adding pressure to the South China Sea and adding a dangerous complexity, compelling Brunei’s “neutrality,” a striking claim given the threat to Bruneian sovereignty. The second essay moves to another flashpoint, the political crisis in Myanmar; a national issue that has reverberated around ASEAN as well as further abroad in Washington and Brussels. Appropriately titled “The Coming of the Raging Fire: The Revolution in Myanmar,” Thiha Wint Aung analyzes the lead-up to the political crisis and concludes by calling for the international community to explicitly support the people’s “armed resistance” against the military. The third essay presents a bold national case for a region-wide issue: dealing with rising Chinese influence. In “Malaysia’s China Policy Amid China’s Growing Security Concerns,” Fikry A. Rahman argues that Malaysian policy elites will have to prioritize strategic concerns over economic ties vis-a-vis China if it is to adequately defend Malaysian sovereignty. The next group of essays focuses on non-traditional security issues, beginning with climate change, one of the most pressing global issues. Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as noted in the fourth essay, “When it Rains, it Pours: Disaster Displacement and the Future of Human Security in the Philippines Amid Changing Climate.” Katrina Guanio calls for policymakers to be aware of gradual or even sudden human migrations due to inclement weather, such as typhoons, and the impact these have on national health, economic, and security dynamics. Taking an unusual and unique perspective, the fifth essay, “Climate Maladaptation: Migration, Food Insecurity, and the Politics of Climate Change in Timor-Leste” by Ariel Mota Alves, makes the provocative argument that international organizations can sometimes promote detrimental Western development narratives that undermine local solutions to local climate change effects. The sixth essay, “Human Trafficking in Vietnam: A Top-Tier Non-Traditional Security Threat in the 21st Century” by Thu Nguyen Hoang Anh, measures the impact of the scourge of human trafficking in Vietnam and offers practical policy solutions to mitigating its impact on victims. Finally, the seventh essay, by Attawat Assavanadda, looks at “Thailand’s Brain Drain Challenge: Trends and Implications,” noting the push-pull drivers of the phenomenon and its impact on Thailand’s overall development. As one can see from this summary, the range of topics chosen by our talented Young Leader cohort from Southeast Asia is as diverse, inspiring, and multidimensional as the region itself. Ranging from security issues that are well covered by regional and international media to those that take an eclectic look at local variations of international issues, we are pleased to showcase these essays. As ever, the mission of Pacific Forum only begins with the creation of such young leader cohorts, and empowering them to present their analyses and recommendations should only be a prelude to robust regional conversations and discussions. We have been since our creation – a forum for those discussions – and hope that our readers will take that engaging approach to these essays and their authors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Migration, Brain Drain, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

26. Southeast Asia’s Clean Energy Transition: A Role for Nuclear Power?

Author:: David Santoro, Elrika Hamdi, Sabar Md. Hashim, Shwe Yee Oo, and Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: To bring clarity on these developments and their implications in Southeast Asia, the Pacific Forum commissioned several Southeast Asian scholars to write analytical papers on the energy transition that is underway in the region, which are compiled in this volume. Each chapter looks at the current and possible future energy landscape of a specific Southeast Asian country and focuses especially on the place and role of nuclear power in it. This “nuclear focus” is important because, for decades, most Southeast Asian countries have expressed on-and-off interest in nuclear power but never brought it online. Interest is now picking up again, especially for SMRs, so if this time one or several Southeast Asian countries successfully went nuclear, it would be a first. It is good timing, therefore, to devote attention to how Southeast Asian countries are thinking about nuclear power in today’s context, for multiple reasons, including those related to safety, security, and safeguards.
Topic:: Climate Change, Nuclear Power, Energy Transition, and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

27. Military capabilities affected by climate change: An analysis of China, Russia and the United States

Author:: Adaja Stoetman, Dick Zandee, Ties Dams, Niels Drost, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the present and the future. Rising temperatures and sea levels, as well as extreme weather events are manifestations of climate change that also influence military capabilities. Increased attention for the climate change-security nexus is visible both at the national and the international level: nationally through the incorporation of climate change in security strategies and internationally through incorporation in important strategic documents such as the EU’s Strategic Compass and NATO’s Strategic Concept. Given its transnational nature, governments around the world have a shared responsibility to face climate change. A particular role is laid down for the global powers, China, Russia and the United States, given their position in the world. It is, however, questionable whether the global powers’ interests align. They differ in their approaches to address climate change, and even more so in their views on how it affects the armed forces. China and particularly Russia are more reluctant towards depicting climate change as a matter of international security. This is for example visible in international forums, such as the UN Security Council. In contrast, in the US, support for climate action is subject to political preferences, but climate related security risks are widely recognised within the defence establishment. This report reviews various aspects of the relationship between climate and security, with a particular focus on the military. It discusses the role of climate change in a country’s security and defence strategy and, vice versa, the changing tasks and deployment of the armed forces in response to climate change, the effects of climate change on military infrastructure, and measures to realise a greener defence sector.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, European Union, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

28. Getting global development back on track: Focus and start at home

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Since 2019, realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has gone from patchy to off-track as a result of Covid-19, global price shocks caused by the war in Ukraine and accelerating climate change. About 100 million people were thrown back into extreme poverty and hundreds of millions more face reduced health, livelihood and income prospects for the rest of their lives. The climate change agenda also took a backseat. Long-term global effects will be profound in terms of growing migration flows, further climate degradation and, likely, more conflict, authoritarianism and populism. Putting global development back on track requires focusing on fewer priorities rather than the entire SDG agenda, namely those with the highest negative impact on developing countries: conflict, climate change and inequality. Addressing these problems primarily requires middle- and high-income countries to reduce their contribution to climate deterioration and inequality at home, and to increase their support for conflict resolution efforts elsewhere at a faster rate. While it may seem counterintuitive, the greatest development contributions that developed countries can make lie at home.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

29. Into the Blue Pacific: Why the EU Should Help Island Nations Address Climate Change and Maritime Insecurity

Author:: Elisabeth Suh and Hanna Gers
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The ‘Blue Pacific’ is a vast region in the South Pacific, encompassing 30 million square kilometers, three million inhabitants and 14 nations. Its consists of thousands of islands threatened by climate change – a concern aggravated by geopolitical competition. The EU can help mitigate these challenges through capacity-building for climate adaptation and maritime security and regional consolidation. This overlaps with European strategic interests, including establishing itself as a trusted outside power.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Pacific Islands

30. Climate and Environmental Security in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:: Kira Vinke, Loyle Campbell, Dana Schirwon, Katongo Seyuba, Florian Krampe, Hafsa Maalim, and Guélor Isulu Mbungwal
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Climate change is compounding the Democratic Republic of Congo’s tangle of problems – a long-running civil war, weak governance, and deeply entrenched poverty and inequality. The country’s future is of global significance: its vast Congo-basin rainforest is a crucial carbon sink and a haven of biodiversity. DRC’s hydropower potential and its deposits of copper and cobalt could enable the energy transition, but a green resource looms over development prospects. Germany will need flexible and well-aligned national strategies to effectively support peace, human progress, and environmental protection in the DRC while putting the focus on the needs of marginalized populations.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Poverty, Inequality, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

31. Migration in the Context of Climate Foreign Policy

Author:: Kira Vinke, Hannes Einsporn, Dana Schirwon, and Mahalia Thomas
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Migration, displacement and resettlement in the context of climate change are not distant scenarios of the future, but are now materializing along increasingly severe extreme events and slow-onset degradation. In view of accelerating global warming and the danger of crossing tipping points in the Earth system, forward-looking climate foreign policy and development policy should increasingly focus on severe climate impacts.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, and Migration
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

32. The Disruption of Arctic Exceptionalism: Managing Environmental Change in Light of Russian Aggression

Author:: Kai Kornhuber, Kira Vinke, Evan T. Bloom, Loyle Campbell, Volker Rachold, Sara Olsvig, and Dana Schirwon
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Arctic is directly affected by the interaction of two ongoing global crises: climate change and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. With its temperatures rising four times faster than the global average, the Arctic is facing dramatic environmental consequences. Meanwhile, retreating sea ice has led to increased economic interest in the Arctic and its growing geopolitical importance. Thus, understanding and managing the global and local implications of environmental change in this region requires urgent scientific and diplomatic collaboration.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Arctic, and Americas

33. Carbon border adjustments, climate clubs, and subsidy races when climate policies vary

Author:: Kimberly Clausing and Catherine Wolfram
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Jurisdictions adopt heterogeneous climate policies that vary in terms of both ambition and policy approach, with some jurisdictions pricing carbon and others subsidizing clean production. We distinguish two types of policy spillovers associated with diverse policy approaches to climate change. First, when countries have different levels of climate ambition, free riders will benefit at the expense of more committed countries. Second, when countries pursue different approaches, carbon-intensive producers within cost-imposing jurisdictions will be at a relative competitive disadvantage compared with producers in subsidizing jurisdictions. Carbon border adjustments and climate clubs are attempts to respond to these policy spillovers, but when countries have divergent policy approaches, one policy alone will not be able to address both types of spillovers. We also consider the policy dynamics that result from carbon border adjustments and climate clubs; both have the potential to encourage upward harmonization of climate policy, but they come with risks. Further, the pressures of international competition in the presence of divergent climate policy approaches may result in subsidy races, which come with their own potential risks and benefits.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, and Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Non-economic loss and damage: closing the knowledge gap

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: Climate-related loss and damage is escalating, with many countries experiencing new forms of climate impact, of increasing intensity. The focus until now has been on calculating the economic repercussions of climate risk. Its wider impacts and resulting hidden costs of climate change — such as loss of cultural heritage — are less understood and harder to quantify. This knowledge gap on non-economic loss and damage, which is largely due to limited coordination around research and sparse evidence originating from the global South, urgently needs addressing. This briefing proposes a comprehensive approach for building the evidence base on non-economic loss and damage, particularly the creation of a Loss and Damage Research Observatory. This online platform will lay the foundations for a collaborative South–South–North community of practitioners, ultimately leading to informed policy on this critical area of climate action.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Displacement, Conservation, Indigenous, Resilience, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35. Scaling up locally led adaptation in Bangladesh: three action areas

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: Although highly climate vulnerable, Bangladesh in South Asia is known as a pioneer of climate change adaptation. Recent national policies have recognised the vital importance of community-based and locally led adaptation (LLA). Where LLA interventions have been used by international and national nongovernmental organisations (NGOs), they have proven to be both effective and widely accepted by local communities. Yet major gaps remain in implementing LLA nationally due to legislative, administrative and conceptual limitations. Meeting Bangladesh’s ambitious national targets will require better coordination within government and with NGOs, so that each can benefit from the other. Building on recent examples, this briefing showcases existing interventions that are replicable and scalable and presents three key action areas requiring further government support. The lessons are also relevant to LLA practitioners in Bangladesh and other Least Developed Countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Local, Community, Adaptation, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

36. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:: Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:: Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. Humanitarian aid: Defining new areas of US-LAC collaboration

Author:: Pepe Zhang and Isabel Bernhard
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The US humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) system—well practiced and extensively developed—could further serve US and partners’ needs in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and beyond through targeted improvements. Based on our experience as HADR practitioners with operational and academic expertise, we share insights from many years of working with partners in the Americas. The task is urgent: fragile governments and organizations further impacted by COVID-19 and climate change have exposed HADR deficiencies that need to be rapidly strengthened. Redoubling the US’s HADR commitment to allies and partners can also have strategic benefits during a period of renewed competition with the People’s Republic of China. We believe that the United States can strengthen its HADR work globally, and particularly with LAC countries, through partnership and relationship building as well as education and exercises. By deepening its strengths and address- ing room for improvement, the United States can remain the partner of choice for LAC countries and conserve its positional advantage over China and other strategic competitors. How can LAC and partner nations (such as the United States), nongovernmental organizations, and regional and other global organizations strengthen their abilities to respond to natural disasters? What can the United States do to improve its disaster preparedness and response in LAC? And what can Washington learn from Beijing’s approach to disaster assistance in LAC? In crafting this report to address these questions, we drew from a roundtable discussion, verbal and written consultations with subject matter experts, and written material. A full description of the methodology is provided in the appendix. The findings of the report include eight recommendations grouped under two mutually complementary areas: (1) partnership and relationship building, and (2) education and exercises. Not only are these recommendations timely and relevant for HADR practitioners, but taking these steps would strengthen Western hemispheric security by investing in the region’s infrastructure and human capital. As the United States and its LAC partners consider future room for cooperation and collaboration, HADR work will form an indispensable centerpiece of their strategies.
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, Politics, Partnerships, Resilience, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

38. Climate Change Mitigation for Late Industrialisers: The Role of Technology Intensity in Manufacturing

Author:: Elvis Korku Avenyo and Fiona Tregenna
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Many developing countries now have a renewed focus on industrialisation and industrial policy. This is based on the recognition that industrialisation is a key driver of long-term economic progress and is the central route to improve the well-being of citizens in developing countries (Chenery, 1955; Tregenna, 2016; United Nations Industrial Development Organization [UNIDO], 2016). At the same time, the climate crisis poses an existential threat to the global economy and to humanity and has emerged as a challenge to the industrial development prospects and pathways of developing countries. This is because industrialisation is an important contributor to global warming, specifically to anthropogenic emissions of cardon dioxide (CO2.) (Adom et al., 2012; Han & Chatterjee, 1997). Late industrialisers thus face a dual challenge: industrialising while mitigating climate change (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017). Hence, there is now a degree of tension as to how late industrialisers can achieve long-term economic development under paths involving heavy or intensive industrialisation, while mitigating emissions and environmental damage more broadly. An emerging discourse recognises the critical need for developing countries to push towards industrial development that, while generating growth in productivity and jobs, is also environmentally sustainable. This is especially important, as poorer countries are particularly vulnerable to the immediate effects of the climate crisis (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017). Thus, transforming towards sustainable production systems and green industrial policies offers developing countries opportunities to industrialise in an environmentally sustainable way while contributing to job creation and economic prosperity (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017; Rodrik, 2014). However, the high ‘green premia’ and new access barriers to the ‘green’ energy technologies from advanced economies directly threaten this potential sustainable industrial development pathway in developing countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Industrialization, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39. U.S. Re-Focuses Arctic Policy-The Consequences for Its Allies

Author:: Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Biden administration is increasing the U.S. capabilities in countering the effects of climate change in the Arctic, an aim overlapping the rivalry with Russia and China in this region. The U.S. announced increasing investments in infrastructure projects and defence, for example, modernising the Coast Guard’s Arctic fleet. The planned measures provide an opportunity for closer American cooperation with their allies and may mark the beginning of a regional division of labour in the area of shared defence.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Investment, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America

40. With Charisma, Stick, and Carrot: Reviewing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Diplomacy

Author:: Zuzanna Nowak and Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, European Union, and Influence
Political Geography:: Europe

41. Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.
Topic:: Climate Change, Human Rights, International Law, Courts, and Litigation
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

42. Financing Loss and Damage at Scale: Toward a Mosaic Approach

Author:: Michael Franczak
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The historic decision on loss and damage (L&D) at the 2022 UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) calls for a new fund and funding arrangements focused on addressing L&D. It also tasks a Transitional Committee to prepare recommendations on the new fund and funding arrangements for adoption at the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai. This decision reflects a recognition that existing funding arrangements are grossly inadequate to address the escalating scale of L&D. Addressing L&D will require both enhancing these existing arrangements and creating a new fund and funding arrangements, forming a mosaic of solutions across countries, institutions, and markets. This paper aims to aid the Transitional Committee and other stakeholders by providing an initial sketch of that mosaic. First, it examines existing arrangements, modalities, and sources of funding for addressing L&D from UN humanitarian agencies, multilateral development banks and international financial institutions, and insurance and bond markets. Second, it proposes reforms to existing arrangements that would address key finance gaps and bottlenecks. Third, it identifies elements of a new L&D fund that would complement existing arrangements and make use of innovative finance (including levies and bond issuances) to operate at scale. With roughly six months left until COP28, the Transitional Committee will need to work efficiently to achieve its mandate, which includes determining the fund’s institutional arrangements, modalities, structure, governance, sources of funding, and coordination and complementarity with existing funding arrangements. To this end, the paper recommends that it should: Begin securing financing before COP28, particularly innovative financing, which takes longer to secure than traditional donor contributions; Consult with the private sector to determine its role, including in the use of insurance mechanisms and risk pools, frontloading, and connections between L&D and jobs; Determine the form and role of triggers, including for slow-onset events; Consider how to address noneconomic losses, including displacement and forced migration; and Identify the actions, mechanisms, and institutions required to operationalize the fund, including an internal or external coordination mechanism.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, United Nations, and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Enhancing Resilience in a Chaotic World: The Role of Infrastructure

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Global infrastructure is at a crossroads. Sustainability and climate-resilience imperatives, new geopolitical headwinds, technology and connectivity issues, as well as the ongoing reconfiguration of global value chains, all call for a rethink in how infrastructure is designed, built and maintained. Leading world economic powers are envisaging new infrastructure plans that could fit in new trade and industrial strategies, with the ultimate goal to increase sustainability, economic competitiveness and resilience. Meanwhile, the use of digital technologies entails new risks for the security of critical infrastructure. How are global value chains changing, and how does this affect infrastructure? How could more resilient infrastructure transform economies? How to enhance the quality and sustainability of new and existing infrastructure? And how to safeguard security in critical infrastructure?
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Economy, Sustainability, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Section 232 reloaded: the false promise of the transatlantic ‘climate club’ for steel and aluminium

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In using the removal of Section 232 ‘national security’ tariffs on steel and aluminium imports as a bargaining chip, the United States demands that the European Union engage in negotiations on “global steel and aluminium arrangements to restore market-oriented conditions and address carbon intensity”. The US demand has reportedly been inspired by a blueprint that would establish an international institutional arrangement – labelled a ‘climate club’ – which would externalise market-access restrictions afforded by US Section 232 tariffs to the customs borders of club members. While the declared objective is to incentivise non-members to adopt low-carbon steel (and aluminium) production methods the US blueprint suffers from various design flaws including inefficient incentives, WTO inconsistency and incompatibility with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed US scheme is severely compromised by the plethora of policy objectives it pursues, which go far beyond the goal of incentivising industrial decarbonisation in third countries, including secondary (ie protectionism) and tertiary (ie global power competition with China) objectives. The initial negotiation proposal submitted by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to European Commission trade negotiators incorporates many if not all the problematic elements of this blueprint, setting the US on a collision course with the negotiation proposal put forward by the European Commission. This paper concludes that the adoption of the scheme proposed by USTR would result in a step backwards for international climate and trade cooperation, whereas not adopting the EU proposal would make for a missed opportunity. Given the sharply diverging negotiation positions and associated respective domestic constraints on both sides, however, policymakers should start to engage stakeholders now to manage expectations towards a low-ambition negotiation result, if any.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Economy, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Rebooting the European Union’s Net Zero Industry Act

Author:: Simone Tagliapietra, Reinhilde Veugelers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In March 2023, the European Commission published a legislative proposal for an EU response to the US Inflation Reduction Act: the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA). It is an unconvincing policy proposal, both for what is in it and for what is not in it. The proposal has five problematic aspects. First, it takes a top-down approach, in which specific technologies are selected for preferential treatment. Preferable would be a technology-neutral approach open to all current and future technologies that help tackle the net-zero challenge. Second, its blanket 40 percent self-sufficiency benchmark for EU domestic cleantech manufacturing by 2030 sends a protectionist signal, is poorly defined and does not reflect the differences in EU capacity in the cleantech sector. Third, it relies on the acceleration of permitting procedures as the main policy instrument, although this is not the main obstacle to cleantech investment in the EU. Fourth, it proposes more strategic use of public procurement. While this is an objective to be supported, the specific proposals are likely to be ineffective because of the way they are designed. Fifth and not least, the NZIA would lack a governance structure that would ensure effective implementation. In addition, the NZIA does not tackle three critical issues. It does not address investment obstacles related to failures of the single market. It does not tackle the coordination problem at the core of developing an EU green industrial policy. Finally, it does not develop an EU-level funding strategy, but rather relies on state aid, with the related risk of fragmentation. The European Parliament and EU countries in the Council of the EU should reboot the proposal and refocus its objectives, sharpening its limited instruments, improving its governance, and adding financial incentives to ensure implementation. In parallel, the EU should develop a broader green industrial policy strategy that leverages the single market in a credible manner, building a solid new governance framework and a new EU-level funding approach.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

46. The potential of sovereign sustainability-linked bonds in the drive for net-zero

Author:: Alexander Lehmann and Catarina Martins
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: European Union governments have for some years issued green bonds that raise funds for climate-related spending. These bonds have been received well in capital markets but because they promise a certain use of proceeds, they complicate budget management and may not match investors’ claims of having an impact on national climate policies. Public commitments made by major investors and asset owners suggest that limiting climate transition risks and the assessment of the alignment of sovereigns with net-zero targets will now become key determinants of portfolio allocation. Yield differentials in bond markets are already beginning to reflect transition risks that arise from the inadequate pursuit by issuers of climate targets. Unlike standard green bonds, sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) create a link between performance (outcome) indicators and the financial terms of the bonds. SLBs have grown rapidly in importance in private markets and are now being assessed by sovereign issuers. We show that sovereign SLBs could help incentivise climate policies in EU countries, and accelerate emission reductions. They would be an effective tool for signalling commitment. A common EU framework for issuance by EU countries would enhance capital market integration and the transparency of national policies, and would limit climate transition risks in EU capital markets more broadly.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Finance, Carbon Emissions, and Sovereign Bonds
Political Geography:: Europe

47. Climate versus trade? Reconciling international subsidy rules with industrial decarbonisation

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast environmental subsidies that may be required for the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are starting to generate international trade and political frictions between the world’s largest economies. This puts (supra-)national industrial decarbonisation efforts on a collision course with international subsidies rules and national countervailing duty (ie anti-foreign subsidy) laws and regulations. International cooperation will be essential to defuse such tensions before they escalate and impede effective climate policy rollouts, and before they lead to economic countermeasures that create new barriers to trade in environmental goods. This requires agreement on permissible environmental subsidy practices that minimise distortions. Meanwhile, it will be crucial to provide financial transfers to assist poorer economies with industrial decarbonisation at the same time as those poorer economies are suffering from the cross-border negative economic impacts of otherwise net-global-welfare enhancing environmental subsidies paid out by wealthy countries. Various forums can host the technical and political negotiations necessary to set the parameters of net global-welfare enhancing subsidies. These include the G7, the G20, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Trade Organisation’s Trade and Environment Committee and WTO Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions, and the Coalition of Trade Ministers on Climate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Political Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, Subsidies, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. Southeast Asia Aid Map - Key Findings Report

Author:: Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope, and Roland Rajah
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Official development finance plays an important role in financing Southeast Asia’s development, equivalent to around 10% of total government development spending in the region. China is Southeast Asia’s single largest development partner and leads infrastructure financing. Yet, implementation problems have seen the scale of China’s financing decline in recent years. Traditional development partners collectively still dominate development financing in Southeast Asia at 80% of the total. The multilateral development banks lead the way, followed by Japan, Europe, and South Korea. The United States and Australia are mid-sized players. India and the Middle East have become notable sources of non-traditional development finance, with the Islamic Development Bank playing an important role. Climate development finance is increasing, but Southeast Asia will need more support if it is to transition towards resilient, low-carbon development. Intraregional development cooperation is growing, but only makes up a small part of development finance in Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

49. Compliance Assessment of the FY 2023/24 Budget to Climate Change Interventions in the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII)

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirms that climate change is occurring in the world today. Climate change is a global development challenge with adverse effects manifested in different ways at national and local levels especially in the vulnerable least prepared countries like Uganda. It is associated with negative severe effects on human well-being and ecosystems which equally hinders the achievement of sustainable development and social equity goals hence becoming one of the drivers of exclusion. This makes it an urgent problem that requires global, regional and national efforts towards effective mitigation and adaptation responses. Swift effective response to climate change could significantly contribute to the attainment of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while delayed action is predicted to have severe and irreversible consequences for natural and human systems. Uganda’s frameworks to sustainable development (Uganda’s Vision 2040, the NDP III, sectoral policies and plans) highlight climate change as an outstanding development challenge. This implies that the attainment of the country’s long-term development goals and the building of resilient communities that will mitigate and adapt to climate change largely depends on the significant allocation of financial resources to climate change interventions specified in the development frameworks. The NDPIII 2020/21-2024/25) not only integrates climate change across all its twenty (20) programmes but also provides for their strategic interventions and targets. This integration trickles down to the NDPIII Results Framework and Programme Implementation Action Plans (PEAPs) and is also supposed to fully cascade down to the national budget. This report presents the compliance assessment of the FY 2023/24 budget to climate change interventions in the third National Development Plan (NDPIII) based on ten (10) priority programmes selected due to their real or potential contribution to climate change and their strategic importance to the development process. Overall, the analysis revealed that the FY2023/24 Annual Budget (AB) to climate change interventions in NDP III is unsatisfactory at 55.35 percent which is slightly lower than last year’s compliance level of 64.7 percent. However, there were variations in the compliance levels of the different programmes. The programmes on Sustainable Development of Petroleum Resources programme (83.3%), and Sustainable Minerals Development programme (80%) had a satisfactory level of compliance. On the other hand, the programmes of Human Capital Development (62.5%), Integrated transport infrastructure and services (61.1%), and Tourism development (66.7%) had a moderately satisfactory level of compliance. Lastly, the programmes of Sustainable Urbanisation and housing (56.7%), Natural Resources, Environment, Climate Change, Water and Land Management (56.3%), Agro-industrialization programme (28%), Digital transformation (40%), Private Sector Development (0%) had a far below an unsatisfactory level of compliance (below 60%).
Topic:: Climate Change, Budget, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

50. Why Democracies Implement Better Climate Actions: Case Study of India, the Philippines, and Japan

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo and Jisoo Park
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Asia is the most populous and one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. Long coastline, vast low lying areas comprising many small island nations make it highly susceptible to climate change such as rising sea level and extreme weather events like floods, landslides. For many critics, democracies' response to climate change is much impeded due to their slow decision-making process and short-termism governed by electoral compulsions. Some analysts go as far as to claim that authoritarianism is needed to tackle the crisis more effectively. However, close examination of different governance structure's climate actions strongly supports that democracies are inherently better at handling climate crisis compared to authoritarian regimes. This article explores the multifaceted impact of climate change to democracy and delves into the case studies of India, the Philippines, and Japan to identify strengths as well as areas of improvement that democracies should consider to establish meaningful climate actions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Asia, and Philippines

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS