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  • Author: Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Allen Hammond, David A. Hamburg, Donald Kennedy, John D. Steinbruner, Timothy E. Wirth
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
  • Abstract: This Web cast highlights issues raised by Donald Kennedy, president emeritus and Bing Professor of Environmental Science of Stanford University, in his newly released monograph Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict. David Hamburg, president emeritus of the Carnegie Corporation and Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, will give introductory remarks. In addition to Kennedy, presenters include John Steinbruner, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution; Jessica Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Allen Hammond, director of strategic analysis at the World Resources Institute
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Environment, Peace Studies, Science and Technology
  • Author: Andrew Green
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: Domestic instability often has a deleterious effect at the international level, too, particularly as more states adopt democratic institutions and market-oriented economies. Whether we are talking about failing multi-ethnic states and their impact on the UN and NATO, or about failing economies and their impact on international markets and such international organizations as the IMF and the World Bank, it is clear that the domestic and international levels cannot be separated. While instability may arise from many different sources, the state-society connection is perhaps the most problematic: a democracy in which the only link between citizens and politicians is the electoral connection is a democracy impoverished by stagnant ideas and limited societal input. A state disconnected from society is prone to domestic instability, with negative effects at both the domestic and international levels.
  • Topic: NATO, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Luc Veron
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: The author is very grateful for the support, both material and intellectual, which he received during his stay at the University of Southern California. He is particularly appreciative of the many conversations he had with colleagues at the School of International Relations, the Center for International Studies, the Marshall School of Business and the Department of Economics of USC as well as at UCLA's School of Public Policy and Social Research which greatly helped him to formulate the ideas presented here. Although the author is currently employed by the European Commission, the ideas expressed in this paper are purely personal and do not reflect the views of any institution.
  • Topic: Globalization, Industrial Policy, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, California
  • Author: Luc Veron
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: The heated dispute that erupted at the end of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on audio-visual services is fairly representative of the cultural argument in trade. Culture is often proclaimed to oppose full liberalisation of international exchanges of goods and services. In 1989, after the liberalisation of US film import in Korea, angry Koreans directors in some Seoul theatres showing US movies released poisonous snakes Japan traditionally opposed rice imports on the basis that it would endanger Japanese culture. The United States claimed that the "potato-potato-potato rhythm at idle and the staccato beat at cruising speeds" of a Harley-Davidson was part of the American culture with the obvious aim to ridicule any notion of culture, or more precisely of national culture. German director Wim Wenders replied to the latter by provocatively reminding that the essence of US national culture being trade the Americans have no sense of any possible contradiction between trade and culture. When, to justify the remarkable work of the Australian Film Commission, experts came up with a tentative definition of Australian culture, the simple evocation of Crocodile Dundee generated outrage, especially among the feminists. It is uneasy to find an acceptable and workable definition of national culture to analyse its impact on trade.
  • Topic: Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe, Germany, Australia, Korea
  • Author: Bernard Rorke
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
  • Abstract: The destruction of the past ... is one of the most characteristic and eerie phenomena of the late twentieth century. Young men and women at the century's end grow up in a sort of permanent present lacking any organic relation to the public past of the times they live in.
  • Topic: Government, Religion, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: John Horgan, Max Taylor
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
  • Abstract: In the first of two articles on the fundraising activities of the Provisional IRA (PIRA), the extent and nature of the PIRA's finance operations are described. The areas of kidnapping for ransom, armed robbery. extortion and drug trading, although very specific, serve to illustrate the nature and potential complexity of fundraising activities, the general issues that surround them, as well as specific internal organizational issues and factors indicative of an acute awareness by PIRA leaders of the environments within which they and members of their organization operate. How the PIRAs involvement in certain kinds of criminal activities can and does influence not only their operational development and successes but also the development and sustenance of support for the PIRA's political wing, Sinn Fein, is discussed. It is clear that the absence of direct PIRA involvement in certain forms of criminality is imperative for the development of Sinn Fein's political successes. In the second article, which describes how and why PIRA financing operations have evolved into a much more sophisticated and technical set of activities (including money laundering), what emerges is a picture of the PIRA and Sinn Fein which serves to portray one of the most important long-term, fundamental, limiting factors for the development of a large, sophisticated terrorist group (and its political wing) as finance, and not solely the personal or ideological commitment of its active members. Both of these articles will illustrate the PIRA leadership's many internal organizational concerns relating to fundraising, the links between the PIRA's militants and Sinn Fein - and between PIRA and Sinn Fein fundraising - and the relative sophistication of the Republican movement as a whole. Aiding these illustrations will be case study material, interview data and both public and privately-held documentation. The descriptive data, surrounding issues and its implications presented here, along with case-study material, discussions and interpretations presented in a second article serve to illustrate the many more general and conceptual issues emerging from terrorist financing.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Politics, Terrorism
  • Author: Judith Mariscal
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: This document examines technological change in the telecommunications industry at the international level, from the perspective which sustains that this change as the driving force behind policy reform, based on the public interest theory of regulation, argues that the emergence and diffusion of new technologies has transformed the market structure in this sector ad as a consequence the nature of government policy. The dramatic technological innovation that this industry experienced transformed the once stable role of the state in telecommunications. Until recent years telecommunications policy amounted to a rather narrow one, that of determining fair rates of basic service provided by a regulated telephone monopoly. The resulting increases in productivity of these new technologies has led to a high segmentation of this industry; to a proliferation in the number and kinds of firms providing telecommunications services which in turn transformed the role of government in this industry. This document will provide an understanding of the traditional technologies available in telecommunications and explore the mergence of new technologies. The most significant result of innovation has been declining costs along with an increased capacity of equipment unites and reliability. Because of this rapid technological change, new firms have entered the market bringing differentiated and new products and services. The objective is to identify how technological innovation decreased costs and allowed the entry of new competitors. The policy consequences were to erode the natural monopoly standing of this industry, to make it more contestable and with this to transform its traditional regulatory structure. The first section of this document will examine the prevailing literature on regulation as sustained by the public interest theory of regulation. The following sections will describe the conventional technology employed in telecommunications, the technological innovations that have occurred as well as how these technologies have transformed this industry at a worldwide level.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Author: Miguel Ángel Valverde
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: This paper examines the theoretical discussion on interdependence, and its use for analyzing U.S.-Mexican economic relations. It combines interdependence's premises with other perspectives on the position of the North American economies in the global marketplace, arguing that NAFTA is an institutional response to these developments.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: United States, Central America, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Dick Thornburgh
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
  • Abstract: On the evening of March 28, 1979 America experienced the first, and worst, nuclear power plant accident in its history. The crisis began when a valve opened, unnoticed, allowing coolant water to escape from the plant's new Unit 2 reactor. Following a series of technical and human failures, temperatures within the unit rose to more than 5,000 degrees, causing the fueling core to begin melting. During the next tension-packed days, scientists scrambled to prevent a meltdown while public officials, including Governor Dick Thornburgh and President Jimmy Carter, attempted to calm public fears. In spite of these efforts, thousands of residents fled to emergency shelters or left the state, driven by rumors of an imminent CHINA SYNDROME. In the end, only one layer of the containment structure was compromised and the accident never reached the proportions of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The accident nonetheless resulted in the release of some radiation, the quantity and effects of which are still debated.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Island
  • Author: William D. Coleman
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: The governance arrangements in international finance mirror, in part, those found domestically by featuring a partnership between relatively autonomous state agencies and private actors. Where they depart from domestic arrangements is in the relatively stronger position of private actors, particularly global financial conglomerates, in decision-making. Given the importance of the governance arrangements in international finance for the welfare of individuals and firms throughout the world, it is important to ask whether these arrangements conform to accepted criteria for democratic decision-making. Five criteria are identified that might be applied to international sites of governance. These criteria are then applied to three groups of institutions, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), and “private regimes” especially predominant in the derivatives subsector. Based on this analysis, important gaps are found when these governance institutions are held up to democratic principles.
  • Topic: Globalization, Government, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Linda Weiss
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: The Asian financial crisis has re-opened the debate about the role of the state in the region's industrialisation. Just when there seemed to be growing acknowledgment across the economic and political disciplines that certain kinds of state involvement were vital to the rapid upgrading of the Northeast Asian economies and that understanding what made states effective or ineffective was a crucial issue, along came the financial hurricane. Profound disarray of an economic and social nature has been the most immediate and important consequence of this watershed event. Theoretical disarray has followed closely in its path. This paper seeks to inject some theoretical rigour into the discussion of the Asian crisis. State power in the Asian setting - whether and in what way the state's transformative capacity is weak or robust - and how it relates to the impact of international markets is central to the argument that follows.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Richard Higgott
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: Globalisation is now a near ubiquitous phenomenon. Indeed, it is the most over used and under specified term in the international policy sciences since the passing of the Cold War. However, as most actors in the international policy domain recognise, it is a term that is not going to go away. Policy responses--of state and non state actors alike--are increasingly coming to terms with globalisation, however defined.
  • Topic: Democratization, Globalization, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Tony Porter, William D. Coleman
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
  • Abstract: The advance of globalization has involved additional governance capacity at supranational levels and thereby raised concerns about democracy, which has traditionally been based on the nationstate. For the most part, these governance arrangements take the form of intergovernmental fora, where nation-states are the principal players. In some policy areas where globalization is more pronounced, such as international finance, governance appears to feature some autonomous institutional development. Autonomy may come in the form of a relatively strong international organization with a mandate anchored in international law such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), or of the institutionalization of norms and values that give the intergovernmental forum an autonomous and distinct global perspective. As Held (1995) has observed, democratic theory has assumed that the nation-state is the relevant decision-making unit. The migration of political authority to supranational levels thus has the potential to undermine long-standing democratic arrangements.
  • Topic: Globalization, Government, International Law, International Organization, International Political Economy, Political Theory
  • Author: Jürgen Altmann
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
  • Abstract: Acoustic weapons are under research and development in a few countries. Advertised as one type of non-lethal weapons, they are said to immediately incapacitate opponents while avoiding permanent physical damage. Reliable information on specifications or effects is scarce, however. The present report sets out to provide basic information in several areas: effects of large-amplitude sound on humans, potential high-power sources, and propagation of strong sound.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Kingsley G. Thomas, James Gibson
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Urban Institute
  • Abstract: The current devolution debate has focused on shifting responsibilities from the federal level to the states. A byproduct of this shift has been renewed attention to an often neglected element of the policy mix—the costs and benefits of different local institutionalarrangement—and to the potential roles of civil society and community-based initiatives in that mix. The local tableau has recently been rediscovered as a vital leg on which the performance of the public sector is dependent. Students of government are only beginning to understand this play between civil society and the public sector. Here we focus especially on the dynamics within poor communities, where simple assistance is no longer considered adequate to solve problems without the necessary institutional infrastructure that is sometimes included under the label “civil society.”
  • Topic: Civil Society, Human Welfare, Poverty
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Mark Edmond Clark
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: Bosnia has been an international challenge that after five years may appear intractable. However, it too has a handle. In the new Bush Administration, policymakers and analysts must recognize that Bosnia is not a Western state, and that the country's bewildering social, economic, and political structures cannot be understood by viewing them through a Western prism. Only after these are examined and delineated can the new Administration get the business of rebuilding Bosnia underway guided by a policy more suited for its society and more coherent than that of the previous Administration.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Europe, Bosnia
  • Author: Sean Costigan, Mark Edmond Clark
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: What are the short-term effects of the bombing campaign? While I was in Belgrade and Pristina in the beginning of March, the officials of the Yugoslav and Serbian Governments, with whom I spoke, made it clear that once the bombing campaign began, they would initiate a full blown counter-terrorist campaign in Kosovo. Efforts of the Yugoslav Army and Ministry of Interior forces would be directed against the KLA and its infrastructure. The campaign would be focused on the area that was part of the KLA's "Strategic Trapezoid" in the center of Kosovo, which the KLA had declared to be their area of strongest influence. They also informed me that they would strike at KLA positions in Albania and possibly Macedonia. This is precisely what those forces have been doing.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the end of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators have paused after strong growth early this year. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems should be monitored for future increases.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in September. This report merits careful interpretation, but does not change general conclusions drawn from previous releases, which show the economy is in good health: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising in the 4th quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems must be monitored for future increases.
  • Topic: Economics, Health
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of 3.0 percent (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems do not seem to be a problem yet.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising in the 3rd quarter from the 1.8 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 2nd quarter. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems show inconsistent patterns of growth.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at a pace of 2.7 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999, compared to the advance estimate of GDP showing a 2.3 percent increase. The leading indicators point to continuation of the expansion through early 2000. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability problems are almost nonexistent.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index held steady in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of over 2.5 percent (annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 1999. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through the remainder of 1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to activity continuing to rise at the start of the 2nd quarter of 1999, but at a pace that is much more modest than the 4.1 percent (annualized) rise in GDP in the 1st quarter. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least the 4th quarter of 1999. Evidence of cyclical imbalances from the lagging indicators—that might threaten the stability of the economy—is neither consistent nor convincing.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.1 percent, and both the coincident and lagging indexes increased 0.2 percent in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a very healthy economy: The coincident indicators show aggregate economic activity growing at about a 3.25 percent annualized pace in the 1st quarter of 1999 (compared to a 4.5 percent increase in the advance estimate of GDP). The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion for at least six more months. Cyclical imbalances and related conditions are unlikely to jeopardize the economy's stability.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in February. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a pace of about 3 percent (annualized) in the 1st quarter of 1999. The leading indicators show odds are high that the expansion will continue through at least late-1999. There is little evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 01-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show generally healthy conditions: The coincident indicators show that, although industrial production fell slightly, the first quarter of 1999 started on a positive note. The leading indicators are almost unanimous in predicting continued growth through at least the middle of the year. Signs of cyclical imbalances and other factors that might jeopardize the economy's stability remain relatively subdued.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Susan B. Martin
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
  • Abstract: This paper responds to recent criticisms of balance of power theory by arguing that those criticisms represent a misunderstanding of both the contributions and limitations of systemic balance of power theory. At the same time, it acknowledges that there are some problems with current work on balance of power, in particular with work that uses systemic balance of power theory as a basis for studies of state behavior. I argue that the problems with this current work are a result of the failure to make the adjustments required by the change in the level of analysis that occurs when one moves from systemic theory to the study of state behavior. In particular, there has been little analysis of what it means for a state to “balance.” To address this problem, I develop a definition of balancing behavior that is consistent with systemic balance of power theory, and then use that definition to develop a general model of balancing behavior. I then show how that general model can be used to integrate and evaluate different hypotheses concerning the balancing behavior of states. I conclude that both systemic balance of power theory and studies of the balancing behavior of states can contribute to our understanding of international politics, and therefore argue that we should resist the suggestion of critics that balance of power theory should be abandoned.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Politics
  • Author: Carmen Thiele
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: Using the example of Estonia, the criterion of citizenship as a prerequisite for membership in a national minority and its legal consequences for persons belonging to these groups is discussed. While at the universal level minority protection is considered as a basic human right, at the European level it is still viewed as a right of citizens. The author pleads for a simplification of the naturalisation process and the renouncing of the citizenship criterion as a requirement for membership of a national minority.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, International Law, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Estonia
  • Author: Kinga Gál
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: The practice of bilateral agreements on good neighbourly relations was 'reinvented' by Germany after 1991 to guarantee the frontiers resulting from World War II and to protect the minorities of German origin in Central and Eastern Europe. A similar policy was pursued by Hungary with five of its neighbours to deal with the problems of the Hungarian minorities. Parallel to this trend, the European Union has also promoted a policy aimed at guaranteeing stability in Central and Eastern Europe through bilateral agreements on good neighbourliness. The bilateral treaties follow each other in time, structure and content. They incorporate soft law provisions, especially with regard to their minority regulations, reflecting the strong influence of the political factor. They do not mention collective rights and fail to provide the national minorities concerned with any form of self-government. Furthermore, they were often negotiated in the absence of the minority communities they were designed to protect. As these treaties are politically highly motivated, the political aspects of the implementation mechanisms have received primacy over the legal possibilities. The treaties, and hence indirectly the provisions of international documents enshrined in them, have the same status as national legislation and could therefore be claimed before national courts. However, the joint intergovernmental committees monitoring implementation have the potential to become the most effective implementation mechanism. In conclusion, although these treaties have not significantly changed the existing practice of minority protection so far, their importance should not be diminished because they contribute to the construction of a new inter-state framework for minority protection.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Germany
  • Author: Stephanie Schwandner-Sievers
  • Publication Date: 03-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: Today, many thousands of Aromanians (also known as "Vlachs") live quite compactly in Northern Greece, Macedonia (FYROM) and southern Albania; and there are still traces of Vlach-Aromanian and Aromanian populations in Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and Romania. In Albania, they were recently estimated at about 200,000 by the English scholar Tom Winnifrith. In Albanian communist times, Aromanians were not recognised as a separate minority group, officially considered to be almost completely assimilated. However, in the early post-communist transition period, a vivid Aromanian ethnic movement emerged in Albania and it became part of a recent global Balkan Aromanian initiative. The Albanian Aromanians' new emphasis of their ethnicity can be seen as a pragmatic strategy of adjustment to successes and failures in the Albanian political transition and to globalisation. It is exactly the re-vitalisation of the conflict between followers of a pro-Greek and a pro-Romanian Aromanian identification that serves to broaden the scope of options for potential exploitation.
  • Topic: Development, Ethnic Conflict, Politics
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Albania
  • Author: Gianni Vaggi
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Studies Center
  • Abstract: The paper is an introduction to some of the issues that the enlargement, both in terms of memberships and association, will involve.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Emilio Gerelli
  • Publication Date: 11-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Studies Center
  • Abstract: Building scenarios of the future has been defined "the art of thinking the unthinkable". And in fact the successful author of scenarios must be able to combine both an open and creative mind, and analytical capabilities to envisage different and sometimes counterintuitive combinations of actors, factors and trends. Our author is often also "heroic", since he knows that most probably he will be disproved by facts. However it is worth bravely accepting the challenge of uncertainty, since "illustrating the future by means of scenarios is a way to overcome human beings' resistance to change. Scenarios can thus open mental horizons to allow the individual to accept and understand change, and so be able to shape the world. Scenarios may help in seizing new opportunities ahead as well as avoiding undesirable effects of misconceived actions". In this connection a historian notes: "it is desirable, possible and even within certain limits necessary to forecast our future…However the process of forecasting must be based necessarily on the knowledge of the past".
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Tom Barry, Robert Weissman, Martha Honey
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Foreign Policy In Focus
  • Abstract: Africa and the developing world are facing an HIV/AIDS crisis equated by the U.S. surgeon general to the plague that decimated Europe in the fourteenth century. Combinations of available pharmaceuticals-too expensive for nearly all of the infected people in the developing world-could enable many afflicted with HIV/AIDS to live relatively normal lives. Compulsory licensing and parallel importing policies could help developing country governments make essential medicines more affordable to their citizens.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Europe
  • Author: Tom Barry, Martha Honey
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Foreign Policy In Focus
  • Abstract: The Foreign Policy In Focus project functions as a network of foreign policy experts. The following brief, written by one of the project's codirectors, benefits from the expert opinions about the Kosovo crisis from numerous experts and organizations that have contributed to the project's efforts to make the U.S. a more responsible global leader and partner. We see this policy brief as a living document that will be regularly updated and revised as this horrific manifestation of U.S. militarism and global irresponsibility evolves. The policy brief calls for the unconditional halt to this war of terror. Comments appreciated.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, Migration
  • Political Geography: United States, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Klaus Becher
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The nations of the European Union represent not only one of the two most important economic actors in the world, but also include some countries of world-wide political importance. Half of the G-8 membership is from the EU, as are two permanent members of the UN Security Council. The responsibilities and obligations that, historically, European powers accumulated in all continents still have many remnants. The two big European wars of the 20th century were also fought in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Europe, while enjoying the benefits of a large, expanding internal market, depends for its prosperity on a secure and functioning global order.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, Iceland, Nagasaki, Taipei
  • Author: Shahram Chubin
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: In the past fifty years five US President's from Truman to Clinton have directly or indirectly, affirmed US interests in the Middle East. The 'doctrines' in the case of Carter (1979) and Reagan (1981) specifically addressed the security of the Persian Gulf. The same period has seen the withdrawal of imperial powers. Three decades ago Britain managed the security of the Persian Gulf. Two decades ago France had the largest naval force in the Indian Ocean. The contraction of these commitments was encouraged by the US, which was unwilling to be associated with colonialism and its evils. Yet since Britain's withdrawal from the Gulf which occasioned the Nixon doctrine, the US has been grappling with how best to assure security. Reliance on regional states ("twin pillars") was upset by the Iranian revolution. In the 1980's the long Iran-Iraq war underscored the need for a Western role, but neither its shape nor its duration were clear. Local forces were reluctant to envisage any thing beyond an "over the horizon presence."
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France
  • Author: Francois Heisbourg
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The Kosovo air war was an eye-opener for many Europeans, particularly for those who normally follow defence issues at a distance. There was no escaping the realisation that close to three-quarters of the aircraft and more than four-fifths of the ordnance released against Serbian targets were American. America's massive dominance in C31 was similarly spectacular, with media commentators using the over-simplified but effective equation: "Fifty U.S. military satellites, a single European satellite". Under such circumstances U.S. influence on all strategic and operational aspects of the war could only be overwhelming, for better or for worse, a situation summarised by the syllogism "no capability-no responsibility". Despite deep strategic flaws, questionable tactics and occasional rank incompetence (the Apache episode, the China Embassy bombing), the U.S. edge is so great that it can afford even serious blunders.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Stuart Johnson
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The United States and its NATO allies have engaged in two high intensity conflicts in this decade, Desert Storm in the Gulf and Operation Allied Force in Yugoslavia. Both campaigns were characterized by a strong, and successful, effort to maintain broad coalition participation and cohesion. But the story is more complex than the press releases from NATO Headquarters, Washington, and other NATO capitals would have us believe. Both operations revealed differences in US and European allies' capabilities and styles of prosecuting warfare. These forced the commanders to adopt an ad-hoc, inefficient division of labor in what, to the public, was presented as a seamless coalition operation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Dmitriy Gershenson, Herschel I. Grossman
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Independent Institute
  • Abstract: The Soviet ruling elite, the nomenklatura, used both cooption and political repression to encourage loyalty to the communist regime. Loyalty was critical both in defusing internal opposition to the rule of the nomenklatura and in either deterring or defeating foreign enemies of the Soviet Union. The cost of coopting people into the communist party was a decrease in the standard of living of members of the nomenklatura, whereas the cost of political repression was the danger that members of the nomenklatura would themselves be victimized. We assume that the nomenklatura determined the extent of cooption and the intensity of political repression by equating perceived marginal benefits and marginal costs.
  • Topic: Cold War, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, China
  • Author: William Smith, Roberto Korzeniewicz
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
  • Abstract: The crystallization of the so-called “Washington Consensus” in the late 1980s sparked intense debates regarding the likely social impact of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment. Academic critics and political opponents argued that Washingtonian reforms, and neoclassical economics more broadly, lacked a coherent theory of growth, and were bound to result in long-term negative trends in popular welfare and social inequality. Advocates of neoliberal restructuring, in contrast, while recognizing that market-oriented reforms could lead initially to a decline in output and standards of living, were confident that these reforms eventually would lead to sustainable growth and, as a consequence, greater equality and enhanced social welfare. A decade later we revisit this debate to evaluate recent trends in economic growth, poverty and inequality, and to assess accompanying shifts in the theoretical, policy, and political terrains.
  • Topic: Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Washington, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean
  • Author: Michael P. Taylor
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises held its first two sessions in the fall of 1999, convening practitioners and area experts to discuss Indonesia immediately before and after that country's presidential selection. Participants debated the composition of the new government, the prospect of further regional separatism, and the future role of the military, and the political and social impact of the continuing financial crisis, among other issues. Many expected that the broad coalition-style government that emerged under the leadership of Abdurrahman Wahid would offer short-term stability at the expense of a decisive policy direction. The center would hold in the short term but be weakened.
  • Topic: Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Indonesia, Asia
  • Author: Walter C. Clemens, Jr.
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper suggests how basic concepts of complexity theory can be applied to international relations and—as a test case—to analyze security and development issues in the Baltic states and Russia. Complexity theory suggests ways to assess the fitness of states—defined as the capacity to cope with complex challenges. Fitness depends not just on material strength relative to changing conditons but also on a capacity for self-organization. Societies that are too rigid or too chaotic lack this capacity. Complexity theory's emphasis on coevolution reminds us to analyze actors in relation to each other and to their common environment.
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Michael w. Collier
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics
  • Author: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Very rough preliminary and incomplete draft The modern state-centric international system is generally thought to have its origins in the Treaty of Westphalia. From that perspective, the modern sovereign state owes its origins to the resolution of the Thirty Years War. Prior to 1648, international politics are thought to have been less territorially focused, with feudal ties taking precedence over considerations of state. Here I set out a modest theory of competition between the Catholic church and European kings, especially the Holy Roman Emperor and the kings of France and England, during the years from 1122 onward. That theory suggests that the modern territorial state has its origins in the Concordat of Worms, 500 years earlier than is generally thought. It also suggests that the development of important institutions of the modern sovereign state are an endogenous product of strategic maneuvering between the Catholic Church and European kings over political control within their domains. Naturally, other factors, including competition between kings and barons, and aristocrats and merchants also play an important part in the evolution of political institutions. Those other considerations, however, are not examined here so that what I propose is a partial, incomplete account of the early developments that culminated in the modern territorial, sovereign state. Specifically, the theory maintains that the development of “modern” political institutions and the history of economic growth in Europe are to a significant degree the consequence of competition between monarchs and the Catholic church. This views stands in contrast to the general accounts of economic growth or of institution building found in the sociological literature beginning with Weber or in the historical and much of the political economy literature.
  • Topic: International Law, Religion, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Knowledge progresses through a dynamic process. Arguments are made for the plausibility of hypotheses. The logic of such arguments is scrutinized and the evidence for and against the inferences drawn from the arguments is evaluated. Progress is made by reducing the set of logically and empirically plausible explanations of the phenomena of interest. Such reduction takes place on at least two levels. Some seemingly plausible explanations are eliminated for want of logical coherence. Others, passing the test of logical coherence, are superceded by alternatives that account for a broader array of empirical phenomena and/or a broader set of facts. In this essay I suggest that on both grounds, the neorealist research program is no longer a plausible explanation of the central phenomena in international relations with which it is concerned.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Author: Kenneth Lloyd Forsberg
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Occasionally, terminological problems reflect underlying conceptual confusions that can seriously impede the advancement of discourse and understanding. This paper argues that two such problems currently exist in much of international relations scholarship, focused around the concept “interests.”
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Author: Eric Garcetti
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: In January 1963, Haile Selassie, Emperor of Ethiopia, stood in the dry bed of the Mereb River in northern Ethiopia and in front of the world's cameras cut a ribbon over the border separating Ethiopia and Eritrea to symbolize the recent “unification” of the two states. More than 36 years later, any idea of amity, let alone unity, between Ethiopia and Eritrea lies in shreds along the border, scene of a seven-month military standoff between the two states. As mediators from President Clinton to Mohamar Ghaddafi rush to find a solution to the escalating conflict, both armies are on the precipice of an all-out war.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ethiopia