The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators show the 4th quarter of 1998 starting with a relatively slow pace of growth (compared to the coincident index's rise of rise 3.0 percent and GDP's rise of 3.7 percent, annualized, during the first 3 quarters of 1998. The leading indicators show no serious impediments to moderate, or even strong, economic growth in 1999. There is almost no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Both the leading and coincident indexes held steady, while the lagging index fell 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a slowing, but still healthy economy. The coincident indicators suggest the expansion advanced in the 2 to 2.5 percent range in the 3rd quarter of 1998, compared with constant- dollar GDP showing a 3.3 percent increase (annualized). It is premature to predict a recession based on the leading indicators. The lagging indicators have moderated, giving less reason to worry that cyclical imbalances will soon jeopardize the economy's stability.lances could jeopardize the economy's stability.
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a 2.5 to 3.0 percent pace (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The lagging indicators suggest a need to be concerned that cyclical imbalances could jeopardize the economy's stability in 1999.
The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a moderating economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at faster pace than the latest GDP figures, but slower than the 4th quarter of 1997 and the 1st quarter of 1998. (The coincident index rose 3.1 percent while GDP rose 1.4 percent, annualized, in the 2nd quarter of 1998). A two-month decline in the leading indicators signals slower growth ahead and only a slight risk of a contraction. The lagging indicators show slight evidence of cyclical imbalances that could jeopardize the economyÕs stability.
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand
Yumiko Nishimura, Naohiro Mitsutake, Michael McCullough, Barry Uphoff, Annie Woo, and Chang-Yao Hsieh
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Hysterectomy is the most common non-pregnancy-related major surgery performed on women in the United States. Close to 600,000 women in the United States undergo the procedure each year, with annual costs exceeding $5 billion. By age 60, more than one- third of women in the United States have had a hysterectomy.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and England
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China is now a major economic and military actor in the international relations of the Asia Pacific region, and thus we cannot afford to ignore China in reviewing the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade and a half, at an annual rate of about 10 percent, and it is expected to sustain a similar pattern of growth for the foreseeable future. Beijing's defense spending has also been increasing every year at a double-digit level for some time. Consequently, China's domestic and foreign policies will from now on significantly influence the course of international relations in this region, and perhaps elsewhere as well.
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
I'll speak on the question of Chinese military defense modernization and its implications for the Asian security environment. I'll try to keep my remarks at a level where we can talk about broader issues and concepts, and the implications of all this for regional evolution in the security environment, U.S. security interests, U.S.-Japan relations, etc. I want to cover four different areas in my remarks.