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50101. Social Impacts of Climate Change in Brazil: A municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on income, health and inequality

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen, Soraya Román, and Dorte Verner
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The paper uses data from 5,507 municipalities in Brazil to estimate the relationships between climate and income as well as climate and health, and then uses the estimated relationships to gauge the effects of past and future climate change on income levels and life expectancy in each of these municipalities. The simulations indicate that climate change over the past 50 years has tended to cause an overall drop in incomes in Brazil of about four percent, with the initially poorer and hotter municipalities in the north and northeast Brazil suffering bigger losses than the initially richer and cooler municipalities in the south. The simulations thus suggest that climate change has contributed to an increase in inequality between Brazilian municipalities, as well as to an increase in poverty. The climate change projected for the next 50 years is estimated to have similar, but more pronounced effects, causing an overall reduction in incomes of about 12 percent, holding all other things constant. Again, the initially poorer municipalities in the already hot northern regions are likely to suffer more from additional warming than the initially richer and cooler municipalities in the south, indicating that projected future climate change would tend to contribute to increased poverty and income inequality in Brazil.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Income Inequality, and Social Impacts
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

50102. Social Impacts of Climate Change in Mexico: A municipality level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Dorte Verner
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper uses municipality level data to estimate the general relationships between climate, income and child mortality in Mexico. Climate was found to play only a very minor role in explaining the large differences in income levels and child mortality rates observed in Mexico. This implies that Mexico is considerably less vulnerable to expected future climate change than other countries in Latin America.
Topic:
Climate Change, Municipalities, Income, and Child Mortality
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

50103. Effects of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on the Bolivian Economy: A CGE Approach

Author:
Martin Cicowiez and Carlos Gustavo Machicado
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Bolivian economy. The PEP 1-1 Standard Model has been employed to analyze the effects of a reduction in (i) the world export prices of mining and agriculture, (ii) the world demand of textiles, and (iii) transfers to households (i.e., remittances) from abroad. The model has been calibrated to a new 2006 SAM for Bolivia. The households have been disaggregated according to their location (urban and rural) and ethnicity (indigenous and non-indigenous). The factors of production have been disaggregated into skilled and unskilled labor, capital, and natural resources. Not surprisingly, our results highlight the relevance of the decrease in the export price of natural gas in explaining the negative effects of the Global Financial Crisis.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Gas, Economy, Forecast, and Simulation
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

50104. The Impact of Internet Use on Individual Earnings in Latin America

Author:
Lucas Navarro
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper uses matching techniques to examine the impact of internet use on individual earnings in six Latin American countries using recent household surveys data. Given their different internet use patterns and their implications, the analysis is done for salaried and self-employed workers separately. While salaried workers users mainly access the internet at work, self employed users access the internet mainly at other places. Therefore, the returns to internet use for salaried workers may be associated not only to individual but also to workplace characteristics. Results indicate a large effect of internet use on earnings for both groups of workers in most of the countries studied. These returns are high compared with estimates for industrialized countries. This could be explained by the much lower prevalence of internet use in the region for the international standards. Additionally, given that the estimations rely on cross-section data, they may not fully control for individuals’ characteristics before internet adoption. This calls for the need of panel-data on new ICTs diffusion in the region.
Topic:
Internet, Self-Employment, and Income
Political Geography:
Latin America

50105. Inflationary memory as restrictive factor of the impact of the public expense in the economic growth: lessons from high inflation Latin American countries using an innovative inflationary memory indicator

Author:
Ernesto Sheriff
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
A new inflationary memory indicator was developed and applied here. A panel was built with the selected countries considering the economic growth as dependent variable in function of the convergence hypothesis, the inflation rate, the public expense and, the recursive variance of the inflation (VARINF) as inflationary memory indicator. The expected results of the panel were that the inflation and their variability affect the growth negatively neutralizing the possible effects that it could have the public expense on the same one. Five Latin American countries with experiences of high inflation were included (Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru and Nicaragua).
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Inflation, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Nicaragua, Peru, and Bolivia

50106. Insights from Bolivia’s Green National Accounts

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio and Lykke E. Andersen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The purpose of the present paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of Green National Accounting by drawing out some interesting insights from the Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounts recently elaborated by the Institute for Advanced Development Studies for the case of Bolivia. The paper uses the Green National Accounts to show the importance of environmental inputs in 7 different productive sectors and compares the corresponding natural resource rents to the level of producer taxes in each sector. The paper also analyses the evolution of total productive capital, in order to judge whether Bolivia’s current development model can be considered sustainable. The paper finished with recommendations about interesting extensions that can be made to the Green National Accounts.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

50107. Bolivian Sub-national Revenues: A Review

Author:
Beatriz Muriel H.
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This papers reviews main topics concerning sub-national revenues (intergovernmental transfers and taxes) and discusses some policy options to develop own sub-national revenues. The review covers the political-legal framework and the fiscal outcomes, finding that: i) intergovernmental transfers policies have expanded over time, generating inequity problems, principally at the departmental level; ii) sub-national revenues depend mostly on intergovernmental transfers; this has generated high levels of vertical imbalances, mainly for department governments whose revenues rely mostly on the hydrocarbons sector; and iii) lack of adequate tax policies that promote fiscal effort and equity led to large horizontal imbalances in municipal per capita tax collection, unrelated to poverty or human development differences. In this regard, policy options were discussed to increase own sub-national revenues, taking into account political and social discussions, the economic, fiscal and legal base, and relevant tax principles. The main recommendations are: i) to promote in-kind contributions (materials and labour) at the municipal level, especially in poor rural municipalities; ii) to improve municipal tax administration supporting the continuation of the RUAT’s work and improving the registry with the new census; and iii) to evaluate the possibility of redefining the RC-IVA as a personal income tax shared between the central government and the departments.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Decentralization, and Revenue
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

50108. Chinese Civil-Military Relations in the Post-Deng Era

Author:
Nan Li
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
This study addresses two analytical questions: What has changed in Chinese civil- military relations during the post Deng Xiaoping era? What are the implications of this change for China's crisis management and its naval modernization?
Topic:
Navy, Maritime, Crisis Management, Modernization, Civil-Military Relations, and Deng Xiaoping
Political Geography:
China and Asia

50109. U.S.-China Maritime Confidence Building Paradigms, Precedents, and Prospects

Author:
David Griffiths
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
As two great powers that will influence much of the immediate future of our small and vulnerable planet, China and the United States are in a marriage of sorts—united for the purpose of living together, in the words of the Oxford English Dictionary. Like it or not, the two societies depend on each other. Environmental degradation, social unrest, economic problems, or pandemic outbreak in one must inevitably affect the other. Both must be active contributors to a peaceful, prosperous, sustainable, global community. Both governments emphasize their commitment to a positive and constructive mutual engagement. At sea, however, that engagement is not always trouble free. Confrontation happens—and when it does, events do not always unfold in the way that policy makers might have intended or preferred. Like a married couple, both sides prefer to downplay to the outside world the extent and nature of quarrels. But despite this public posture, those in command of naval and maritime air forces understand only too well the potential risks of damage, injury, and even death at the tactical level. More worrying is the inherent risk of unintended consequences and the potential for an uncontrolled strategic-political spiral of unwanted escalation. It is bad policy and in no one's interest to perpetuate a relationship in which an innocent mistake at sea can trigger an unwanted political crisis. At sea, however, that engagement is not always trouble free. Confrontation happens? and when it does, events do not always unfold in the way that policy makers might have intended or preferred. Like a married couple, both sides prefer to downplay to the outside world the extent and nature of quarrels. But despite this public posture, those in command of naval and maritime air forces understand only too well the potential risks of damage, injury, and even death at the tactical level.
Topic:
International Relations, Armed Forces, Maritime, Engagement, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

50110. Five Dragons Stirring Up the Sea: Challenge and Opportunity in China’s Improving Maritime Enforcement Capabilities

Author:
Lyle J. Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
In an age of delicate maneuvering among the great powers, coast guards have taken new and leading roles on the world stage. When Washington wanted to demonstrate conviction and bring supplies to beleaguered Georgia without escalating already simmering tensions around the Black Sea, the USCGC Dallas, a large U.S. Coast Guard cutter, was quickly dispatched. The trend has long been visible in Asia. Tokyo's most extensive use of deadly force in the postwar era was an action by the Japanese coast guard against a North Korean surveillance vessel. More recently, a Japan Coast Guard cutter sank a Taiwanese fishing vessel in a collision near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands in the East China Sea, prompting a relatively serious diplomatic incident. These most powerful coast guards are spawning imitators. India, for example, announced a bold new purchase of long-range patrol aircraft for its coast guard in the fall of 2008. South Korea's improving coast guard, meanwhile, has invited foreign reporters to a tour in the vicinity of islands that are administered by South Korea but claimed by Japan, accompanying the visit with belligerent rhetoric.
Topic:
Navy, Maritime, Surveillance, and Coast Guard
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America