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47711. Iran-US Nuclear Standoff: A Game Theory Approach

Author:
Mohammad Ali Mousavi and Yasser Norouzi
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
For almost three decades since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, there has consistently been a conflict between Iran and the United States over a host of issues. The relations between the two countries became more challenging since 2003 after it came to light that Iran had been developing its nuclear program. Since then some US officials have even gone so far as to announce - and repeat - the possibility of a military strike against Iranian facilities to end the nuclear program. In reality, up to now no such drastic action has taken place. Rather instead, in a milder reaction, the US, aided by its European allies and enjoying Russian and Chinese lukewarm acquiescence, has imposed several rounds of sanctions against Iran through the adoption of obligatory resolutions by the United Nations Security Council. But, these actions have failed to force the Iranians to end their program. As a result, many experts argue that a new policy should be pursued toward Iran vis-a-vis its nuclear dossier. So the main challenge which poses itself is to predict when and how this conflict will come to an end. In this paper, different game theory models are used to interpret the current situation of the crisis. It is shown that while at each step it may be more favorable for each party to insist on its claims, the overall result of this approach may not be so favorable for all. As a result, both parties should think about the long term effects of their decisions. It is also shown that the absence of mutual trust could be the main factor that has forced both sides to reach the current point of crisis. Therefore, any attempt towards re-establishing mutual trust between the two governments might be a major step leading to a lasting solution. Furthermore, different possible choices for the US government and the long term effects of each choice will be analyzed. The analysis will also address economic aspects of the conflict, and the long-term effects of any decision and the best possible choices for both governments will be presented.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Iran

47712. Domestic Ideational Sources of Iran's Foreign Policy

Author:
Homeira Moshirzadeh
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Iranian foreign policy during the post-revolutionary period has often been described as pursuing ideological objectives and means. Given the problems usually associated with the concept of ideology, the alternative concept of "domestic ideational sources" would offer a broader perspective and prove less problematic. By this concept is meant the totality of ideas, norms, rules, and discourses that in their inter-relations make the material life meaningful. The basic conceptual and theoretical aspects of the role of ideas and domestic ideational sources in foreign policy - in general and with particular emphasis on the realist outlook - are discussed in the first part of the article.
Political Geography:
Iran

47713. Islam and Nationalism in Contemporary Iranian Society and Politics

Author:
Hamid Ahmadi
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The importance of national identity and national feelings in contemporary Iranian politics has been much neglected students of Iranian studies, particularly outside Iran. The establishment of the Islamic Islamically-oriented policies in its foreign policy seem to have encouraged many to believe that Islam and Iran in the contemporary context are two mutually exclusive factors. However, recent internal developments such as the presidential election, on the one hand, and the firm position of Iranians inside and outside the country toward regional political and international cultural challenges vis indicate that Iranians consider both the religious and national dimensions of their identity as important, and they consider the relation between religion and nationality as mutually inclusive opposed to an exclusive one. This article, focusing on the issue of Islam and nationalism and their relationships, tries to highlight this important factor in order to arrive at a better understanding of the political dynamics of Iranian society and p contrary to the situation in the Arab world, these two elements are both constitutive factors of the Iranian identity. Following a rather brief theoretical discussion of the relations between the two in Islamic and Middle Eastern pe explain the political reasons behind the rise of the Islam nationalism controversy in contemporary Iranian politics and emphasizes that such a dichotomous discourse has an elite rather than popular basis. The concluding s concentrates on the importance of the national factor in the Iranian society by focusing on the two recent presidential elections in Iran as well as on several external political and cultural challenges to Iranian national heritage to stance inside and outside of Iran.
Political Geography:
Iran and Arabia

47714. Mission Afghanistan: The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Goes "Out of Area"

Author:
Gulshan Dietl
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization achieve twin objectives: to counter and contain the US influence in Eurasia and to balance the Russian and Chinese influence within a multilateral group in that space. Since its inception, the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and of its concerns and activities. Afghanistan, therefore, has been a virtual test- case of its commitment and the raison d'etre of its existence. It is also the first ever “Out of Area” operation that it has undertaken. Commit its mandate; not to have done so would have undermined its very credibility. Its “Out of Area” mission is modeled on the NATO example and has been duly acknowledged by NATO. Like any other regional organisati disunity. And like the rest of the world, it recognises the perils of an unstable Afghanistan. To that extent, it shares a common goal with the US that neither of them can achieve alone. It remains to be seen whet her SCO's recognition of a common goal and working towards it with the US will lead to a transcendence of its own ultimate objective of containment and eventual rollback of the US from its strategic neighbourhood.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Eurasia, and Shanghai

47715. Editorial Note

Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The present Note is written with a mixed sense of pleasure, pride, and humility looking to the future and what lies ahead. It is certainly a matter of pleasure and pride for all of us at the Iranian Journal of Foreign Affairs – IRFA as it has come to be called by its slowly growing readership – that the first issue came out at long last back in mid-March, and more importantly, that it was not found to be disappointing. That proved to be a great moral boost, which I presume is critically needed to stay the course. In fact, we were truly humbled by many words of encouragement, which far exceeded what we deserved or expected. We also received many helpful suggestions and recommendations, beginning with form and format and extending to content and analysis, which we appreciate and will take into consideration.
Political Geography:
Iran

47716. The Role of the New Iraq and Neighboring Countries in the Stability and Security of the Persian Gulf

Author:
Mahmood Vaezi
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Iraq, as a major country in the Persian Gulf region, has traditionally played an important role with regard to stability and security in the area. However, the Ba'athist Iraq, especially under Saddam Hussein, acted in large measure as a source of instability, tension and conflict in the area. That period came to an end in 2003 with the collapse of the Ba'athist regime and the emergence of a new governance system in that country. Considering Iraq's position in the region as well as its quite substantial potentials, this country can still play such an important role – perhaps more important than in the past – in the stability and security of the region. Characteristics of the “New Iraq”, particularly its unfolding democratic experience and governance, and a new collaborative approach to foreign policy, especially towards the neighboring countries, have raised hopes for Iraq's prospective positive contribution to regional stability, security, convergence, and ultimate integration, based on a new pattern of engagement and collaboration among regional states and actors. Having suffered for a long period from destructive rivalry, tension and conflict, the Persian Gulf region is acutely in need of a new collaborative, indigenous mechanism to foster and promote lasting stability and security in the area – needless to say, with the active participation of all countries in the region. The present article attempts to look into the Iraqi aggressive posture and policy during the past several decades as well as into the prospects for the future based on the mutual roles and responsibilities of the “New Iraq” and the neighboring states in the Persian Gulf, from the vantage point of peaceful intentions and conduct, interaction and collaboration towards the development of a collective regional system.
Political Geography:
Iraq and Persia

47717. The Contribution of Energy Diplomacy to International Security; with Special Emphasis on Iran

Author:
S. M. Hossein Adeli
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
This article discusses how energy diplomacy is used in today's world to secure and promote the national and international security of nations. It focuses on the case of Iran as a major energy power. It will be argued that the emergence of energy as one of the main global concerns on the one hand and the emergence of multi-polarity in the wake of the demise of the Cold War on the other, have provided a foundation for the use of energy resources as a new means to pursue the international diplomacy of nations. In this context, the isolationist outlook in international politics advocating hard power as the main anchor for a nation's security is rejected; instead a new approach based on the principles of engagement, participation, and partnership in the world's mega trends is emphasized and, in fact, recommended. It is argued here that the level and degree of the meaningful role a country plays in the current world affairs and also in contributing to shaping the prospective international system is directly correlated with the level and degree of safety and security it would be able to secure for itself. In this vein, the traditional as well as modern outlooks in Iran's energy diplomacy will be briefly examined. While the former views oil and gas resources as a source of income to be utilized – primarily – to bankroll current activities and hence, ignoring the political economy considerations of energy, the latter, fully cognizant of such considerations, is based on the new vision of engagement and partnership with global partners and calls for adoption of a comprehensive energy plan that addresses both domestic and international concerns of this sector.
Topic:
Cold War and Debt
Political Geography:
Iran

47718. Islamic Republic's Two-Tier Foreign Policy towards the US From Suspicious in the Mid-term to Proactive in the Long-term

Author:
Hossein S. Seifzadeh
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Hopes for changes in Iran's foreign policy towards the United States (US from now) have been dashed times and again. It is argued in this article that ideational and situational factors are responsible for this. Ideationally speaking, the lagging dialectical gap between otherwise two complementary factors of the Islamic Republic's ideological disposition and perspective and Iran's mutually strategic interests with the US is the single most contributing factor in this respect. As long as the prospects for striking a “correspondence discourse” out of this “dialectical components” (ideological and strategic outlooks) remain uncertain and opaque, realistic hopes for change in Iran-US relations would remain unfulfilled. Situationally speaking, the US also needs to reconsider its anachronistic approach as well as the previous patron-client paradigm in its relation with Iran. Moreover, circumstantial events also play a significant role in tilting the weight in favor of one or the other factor. Notwithstanding the on-and-off aggravating ideological confrontation, the mutually-shared strategic interests of both countries have times and again served to ease and mitigate the post-1979 relations between them within the limits of a practically reigning “cold war.“.
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

47719. The U.N. Security Council's Approach towards Iraq: 1980-2003

Author:
Majid Takht Ravanchi
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Between 1980 and 2003 Iraq was involved in three armed conflicts; namely, the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980's, the occupation of Kuwait in 1990- 1991, and the American-led war against Iraq in 2003. These are three different conflicts with their own distinct characteristics. A comparative study on the behavior of the United Nations Security Council with regard to each of these conflicts reveals that the Security Council has had three different and notably imbalanced reactions towards these conflicts. While At the beginning of the Iran-Iraq conflict, the Council was silent for a few days and later adopted a very ineffective resolution, the approach and conduct in the second conflict was quite different. A few hours after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Council adopted a very strong resolution, under Chapter VII of the Charter. In the case of the third Persian Gulf conflict – 2003 - the Security Council was in the middle of discussions as to how to deal with the Iraqi crisis when the American and British forces started the military attacks against Baghdad. Furthermore, international humanitarian law has been violated during these conflicts on numerous occasions, most notably the use of chemical weapons by Iraq during the Iran-Iraq conflict. The Security Council's lack of resolve to adopt necessary punitive measures against Iraq to prevent further use of chemical weapons was considered by Iraq as a green light to continue its resort and practice with a sense of impunity. As discussed in the paper, blatant lack of resolve on the part of the Security Council towards Iraq's repeated use of chemical weapons was, as a matter of fact, the most manifest expression of the strong pro-Iraq tilt in the Council's approach and conduct; the outward expression of alternating implicit-explicit consensus among the permanent members on how to punish the revolutionary Iran and reward a friendly Iraq. The present paper concludes that a different approach and conduct by the Council vis-à-vis Iraq 's aggression against Iran would have most probably created a different situation and dynamism in the Persian Gulf area with all its significant repercussions and implications.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Iran, Kuwait, Baghdad, and Persia

47720. Ba'athist Iraq and the Three Islands of Abu Musa and the Tunbs The Genesis and Development of an Issue

Author:
Kourosh Ahmadi
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
This paper is an account of the controversy between Iran and Iraq over the issue of the three Persian Gulf islands of Abu Musa and the Tunbs. It covers the time span from 1971 up to 1992 and focuses on the role of Iraq that hoisted the banner of opposition to Iran's title to these islands, following the British withdrawal, and sought to spur the reluctant Arab conservative camp along.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Persia