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58101. Journalism, Transparency and the Public Interest

Author:
Jon Ziomek
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The American media have always been intimately connected with American public life. The newspapers of the colonial era helped generate public support for the idea of separation from England and the creation of a democratic state. The newspapers of the 19th century fed the urbanized public life of a young industrializing nation. The media of the 20th century reflected the national and international political and social movements of their era.
Topic:
Civil Society and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

58102. Information Technology and the New Global Economy: Tensions, Opportunities, and the Role of Public Policy

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Changes in technology have been transforming commerce, politics, and culture for centuries. Yet it is now becoming clear that the explosion of the Internet and assorted digital technologies is provoking epochal changes in the global economy. Finance capital now roams the world with unprecedented speed. Transportation and logistics have become radically more efficient. Work readily moves to wherever it can be most skillfully and cheaply performed. Innovation and productivity are forging ahead, sometimes at blinding speeds.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Science and Technology

58103. Opening the Realm: The Role of Communications in Negotiating the Tension of Values in Globalization

Author:
Michael Suman
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
We live in an era in which security concerns have become paramount, the forces of capitalism have dealt a death blow to socialist command economies, and the United States is aggressively promoting democracy in the Middle East. In this context, what does the future hold for the values of security, capitalism, and democracy? Historians tell us we also are in the Digital Age—increasingly so with the advent of new communications technologies such as the Internet. What role can the media play in fostering the values of security, capitalism, and democracy?
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Democratization, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

58104. Both Sides of the Aisle: A Call for Bipartisan Foreign Policy

Author:
Nancy Roman
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
People naturally disagree about who is responsible for the partisan tone and tactics in Washington, DC, these days, but most agree on this: It's worse, it's more intense, and it's nastier. And few on either side are enjoying it much.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Washington and North America

58105. Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits

Author:
Menzie D. Chinn
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, the United States was the world's largest creditor nation, unsurpassed in its ownership of assets outside of its borders, even after deducting what foreigners owned inside its borders. Yet over the past two decades, America has been transformed into the world's largest debtor nation. At the end of 2004, its debts to the rest of the world exceeded its assets by about $2.5 trillion—21 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This proportion is unmatched by any other major developed economy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and America

58106. Forgotten Intervention? What the United States Needs to Do in the Western Balkans

Author:
William L. Nash and Amelia Branczik
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In 2002, the Center for Preventive Action published Balkans 2010, a Task Force report that laid out a vision for a stable, peaceful western Balkans (comprising Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania) and identified the requisite objectives and milestones to achieve that vision. Many of the report's recommendations remain valid today, particularly the need to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, dismantle politico-criminal syndicates, and promote economic reform and development.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

58107. A New Beginning: Strategies for a More Fruitful Dialogue with the Muslim World

Author:
Craig Charney and Nicole Yakatan
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Focus group research in Morocco, Egypt, and Indonesia has shown that it is possible to improve the image of the United States in the Muslim world. Although many Muslims are angry at what they perceive America does, the right efforts to communicate can produce significant shifts in attitudes. Such efforts would involve listening more, speaking in a humbler tone, and focusing on bilateral aid and partnership, while tolerating disagreement on controversial policy issues. Fortunately, a window of opportunity has opened with the Iraqi elections, renewed hope for Israeli-Palestinian peace, tsunami relief, and developments in Lebanon and Egypt, as well as the start of a new administration in Washington. This moment, marked by an easing of tensions and the arrival of new actors on both sides, offers the possibility of a new beginning in America's dialogue with the Muslim world.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Indonesia, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and Morocco

58108. Power-Sharing in Iraq

Author:
David L. Phillips
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Iraq's elections on January 30, 2005, were a watershed in the country's history. Still, democracy involves much more than voting. It is about the distribution of political power through institutions and laws that guarantee accountable rule. The real fight for power will be over Iraq's permanent constitution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

58109. The Current State of the Japanese Economy

Author:
Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

58110. Report of the Fact-Finding Mission to Lebanon inquiring into the causes, circumstances and consequences of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri

Author:
Peter FitzGerald
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On 14 February 2005, an explosion in downtown Beirut killed twenty persons, among them the former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri. The United Nations' Secretary-General dispatched a Fact-Finding Mission to Beirut to inquire into the causes, the circumstances and the consequences of this assassination. Since it arrived in Beirut on 25 February, the Mission met with a large number of Lebanese officials and representatives of different political groups, performed a thorough review of the Lebanese investigation and legal proceedings, examined the crime scene and the evidence collected by the local police, collected and analyzed samples from the crime scene, and interviewed some witnesses in relation to the crime. The specific 'causes' for the assassination of Mr. Hariri cannot be reliably asserted until after the perpetrators of this crime are brought to justice. However, it is clear that the assassination took place in a political and security context marked by an acute polarization around the Syrian influence in Lebanon and a failure of the Lebanese State to provide adequate protection for its citizens. Regarding the circumstances, the Mission is of the view that the explosion was caused by a TNT charge of about 1000 KG placed most likely above the ground. The review of the investigation indicates that there was a distinct lack of commitment on the part of the Lebanese authorities to investigate the crime effectively, and that this investigation was not carried out in accordance with acceptable international standards. The Mission is also of the view that the Lebanese investigation lacks the confidence of the population necessary for its results to be accepted. The consequences of the assassination could be far-reaching. It seems to have unlocked the gates of political upheavals that were simmering throughout the last year. Accusations and counter-accusations are rife and aggravate the ongoing political polarization. Some accuse the Syrian security services and leadership of assassinating Mr. Hariri because he became an insurmountable obstacle to their influence in Lebanon. Syrian supporters maintain that he was assassinated by "the enemies of Syria"; those who wanted to create international pressure on the Syrian leadership in order to accelerate the demise of its influence in Lebanon and/or start a chain of reactions that would eventually force a 'regime change' inside Syria itself. Lebanese politicians from different backgrounds expressed to the Mission their fear that Lebanon could be caught in a possible showdown between Syria and the international community, with devastating consequences for Lebanese peace and security. After gathering the available facts, the Mission concluded that the Lebanese security services and the Syrian Military Intelligence bear the primary responsibility for the lack of security, protection, law and order in Lebanon. The Lebanese security services have demonstrated serious and systematic negligence in carrying out the duties usually performed by a professional national security apparatus. In doing so, they have severely failed to provide the citizens of Lebanon with an acceptable level of security and, therefore, have contributed to the propagation of a culture of intimidation and impunity. The Syrian Military Intelligence shares this responsibility to the extent of its involvement in running the security services in Lebanon. It is also the Mission's conclusion that the Government of Syria bears primary responsibility for the political tension that preceded the assassination of former Prime Minister Mr. Hariri. The Government of Syria clearly exerted influence that goes beyond the reasonable exercise of cooperative or neighborly relations. It interfered with the details of governance in Lebanon in a heavy-handed and inflexible manner that was the primary reason for the political polarization that ensued. Without prejudice to the results of the investigation, it is obvious that this atmosphere provided the backdrop for the assassination of Mr. Hariri. It became clear to the Mission that the Lebanese investigation process suffers from serious flaws and has neither the capacity nor the commitment to reach a satisfactory and credible conclusion. To find the truth, it would be necessary to entrust the investigation to an international independent commission, comprising the different fields of expertise that are usually involved in carrying out similarly large investigations in national systems, with the necessary executive authority to carry out interrogations, searches, and other relevant tasks. Furthermore, it is more than doubtful that such an international commission could carry out its tasks satisfactorily - and receives the necessary active cooperation from local authorities - while the current leadership of the Lebanese security services remains in office. It is the Mission's conclusion that the restoration of the integrity and credibility of the Lebanese security apparatus is of vital importance to the security and stability of the country. A sustained effort to restructure, reform and retrain the Lebanese security services will be necessary to achieve this end, and will certainly require assistance and active engagement on the part of the international community. Finally, it is the Mission's view that international and regional political support will be necessary to safeguard Lebanon's national unity and to shield its fragile polity from unwarranted pressure. Improving the prospects of peace and security in the region would offer a more solid ground for restoring normalcy in Lebanon.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East

58111. In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conflict Capabilities

Author:
William L. Nash, Brent Scowcroft, and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
From Mogadishu to Mosul, the United States has undertaken six major nation-building operations around the world since 1993. The challenges of terrorism, failed states, and proliferation indicate this trend will only continue. Today, in Iraq, the United States carries the bulk of the nation-building burden. Some 135,000 U.S. troops remain on the ground, at an approximate cost of $50 billion per year. Nearly four years after forcing out the Taliban in Afghanistan, 9,000 NATO forces and 17,000 U.S. troops remain in that country to secure the peace and continue the hunt for al-Qaeda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Taliban

58112. HIV and National Security: Where Are the Links?

Author:
Laurie A. Garrett
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
It is important to clarify the security dimensions of the HIV/AIDS pandemic because actions taken to confront the disease as matters of domestic policy or foreign aid may differ markedly from those taken to address threats to national security. Understanding the impact HIV is now having, much less forecasting its toll and effects twenty years hence, is difficult. Little scrupulous analysis of the political, military, economic, and general security effects of the pandemic has been performed, both because the area is poorly funded and the problem is extremely complex.
Topic:
Health and United Nations

58113. From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round

Author:
Mohamed Hedi Bchir, Lionel Fontagné, and Sébastien Jean
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the background of the Doha Round of trade negotiations, this study proposes a CGE assessment of multilateral liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products. The scenarios considered include the so-called 'Girard proposal' (with alternative choices for the coefficient involved), the removal of tariff peaks and complete liberalisation. This study is the first to take into account the difference between bound and applied tariffs, while considering all the enforced preferential trade arrangements and computing tariff cuts at the detailed product level (HS-6 classification). Although the liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products is found to be welfare-enhancing at the world level, cross-country distributive effects prove significant. A soft liberalisation would not significantly reduce applied duties in developing countries, owing to their considerable binding overhang. By contrast, a deep liberalisation would entail fierce price competition among those developing countries that are largely specialised in similar sectors and in the same product quality range.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

58114. A Citizens Compact: Reaching out to the Citizens of Europe

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, Daniel Keohane, Julia De Clerck-Sachsse, Gaëtane Ricard-Nihoul, José I. Torreblanca, Martin Koopmann, Fredrik Langdal, Ben Crum, Anna de Klauman, Anne Mette Vestergaard, and David Kràl
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
How can the deadlock after the 'no' to the European Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands be overcome? What should be the aim of the 'period of reflection' that has been agreed by the European Council?
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

58115. Modelling the Effects of Trade Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality in Greek Agriculture: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach

Author:
Dimitris Psaltopoulos and Eudokia Balamou
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper presents a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model for conducting an assessment on the potential impacts of trade agreements on several multifunctionality indicators in Greek agriculture. More specifically, two SAM models were constructed, one for Greece and one for local economy of Archanes (Crete), an agriculturally dependent NUTS IV area, which has demonstrated a noticeable record in terms of the implementation of Pillar 2 policies. Along these lines, five alternative scenarios were specified with regards to anticipated EU policy reactions under different future outcomes of the Doha round negotiations. In broad terms these scenarios range from a status quo (2003 CAP reform) hypothesis to full decoupling, taking also into account the possibility of further reductions in domestic (EU) support as well as developments on Pillar 2 funding. Results suggest that under the scenarios examined, the effects of policy reform upon multifunctionality indicators are rather mixed and surely not extremely worrying. Effects of the status quo scenarios seem to be optimistic in terms of projected economy-wide output and employment at both national and regional level. On the other hand, Scenario 1(bis) generates negative results in terms of farm output and employment (for Archanes), land-use abandonment projections are marginal at the national and rather moderate at the regional level, while environmental repercussions are negative at the national level. The regional analysis has also shown that the impacts of Scenarios 2, 2b and 3 are rather worrying in terms of all categories of projections, with the exception of “Total Output”. Taking account of the specification of Scenario 3, this finding generates rather justified reservations on the “ability” of Pillar 2 policies to ameliorate for economic activity contraction caused by a decrease in Pillar 1 support in Archanes economy.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

58116. Impact of Public R Financing on Employment

Author:
Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study analyses how public R financing impacts the labour demand of companies. To our knowledge, no previous studies have distinguished the impact between a firm's global and domestic employment. Our company-level panel data covers a period from 1997 to 2002. The statistical method employed in the study takes into account the possibility that receiving public support may be an endogenous factor. Our results suggest that public R financing increases both group-level and domestic R employment. We also analysed the impact of public R funding on employment other than in the R area, and found that it is not affected by public funding. It is possible, however, that such funding has an impact in the longer term.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

58117. Human Capital, R and Competition in Macroeconomic Analysis

Author:
Erik Canton, Bert Minne, Ate Nieuwenhuis, Bert Smid, and Mark van der Steeg
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Long-run per capita economic growth is driven by productivity growth. Major determinants of productivity are investments in education and research, and the intensity of competition on product markets. While these ideas have been incorporated into modern growth theories and tested in empirical analyses, they have not yet found their way to applied macroeconomic models used to forecast economic developments. In this paper, we discuss various options to include human capital, R and product market competition in a macroeconomic framework. We also study how policy can affect the decisions to build human capital or to perform research, and how competition policy impacts on macroeconomic outcomes. We finally sketch how these mechanisms can be implemented into the large models used at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Netherlands

58118. Evaluating the Impact of Alternative Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality: A Case Study of Finland

Author:
Heikki Lehtonen, Jussi Lankoski, and Jyrki Niemi
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper provides first results of the sector-model approach to analysing the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the multifunctional role of Finnish agriculture. In terms of environmental non-commodity outputs, this study focuses on nutrient runoffs, landscape diversity and biodiversity. As regards other non-commodity outputs, the paper considers rural socio-economic viability. The results suggest that, on the whole, reform of the common agricultural policy is not likely to result in any drastic decline of agricultural production in Finland. The amount of green fallow will increase considerably when agricultural support payments are decoupled from production, and as a result the remaining cultivated agricultural land will become biologically richer. The agricultural labour force is likely to decrease substantially irrespective of agricultural policy. The study concludes that the credibility of the production economics and biological relationships of the economic model determine the validity of the results of the many indicators examined. Further, the economic logic of microeconomic simulation models provides a consistent assessment of the many aspects of multifunctionality.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

58119. Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate

Author:
Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, and Claudio Vicarelli
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

58120. Iran: The Moment of Truth

Author:
Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, and Vladimir Sazhin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
Topic:
Development and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

58121. Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia

Author:
Pekka Sulamaa and Mika Widgrén
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia's terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

58122. Update on the Ratification Debates: What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? Results of and EPIN Survey of National Experts

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, and Julia De Clerck-Sachsse
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty has taken some unexpected turns, since the publication of our initial report. The situation has changed especially dramatically in France: within only 10 days the 'yes' camp slid from a previously stable figure of around 60% to below 50%. Our report had concluded that “if the reasons for a particular European compromise are not made transparent to the citizens, issues can be used in a divisive way at the national level”. It therefore called for a stronger European dimension in the national debates and expressed the hope that politicians and the media would play their role in stressing the common European significance of the European Constitution.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

58123. Is the European Economy a Patient and the Union its Doctor? On Jobs and Growth in Europe

Author:
Sjef Ederveen, Albert van der Hoorst, and Paul Tang
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. Yet the view that economic expansion contributes to maintaining Lisbon's other goals of social cohesion as well as the environment is somewhat optimistic. First, there are structural trade-offs among the central elements of the Lisbon strategy. Escaping these trade-offs temporarily is sometimes possible but requires policy changes. Second, higher productivity (growth) may not provide more structural room for governments to manoeuvre. It leads to higher tax receipts but also to higher public expenditures since public sector wages and social security benefits are linked to productivity. In contrast, more employment (jobs) is associated with a smaller public sector. But to engineer the increase in employment, changes in welfare state arrangements are needed. In other words, focussing solely on the sick child will probably harm the other children.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

58124. Speed of Convergence and Relocation: New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old

Author:
Kari E. O. Alho, Ville Kaitili, and Mike Widgrén
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Economic convergence of the EU's new member countries (NMCs) towards the incumbent EU countries (EU-15) is of paramount importance for both partners, not only in terms of real income but also in nominal terms. In this study we build a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, then modify and enlarge it (with, among other things, endogenous capital formation, consumption behaviour and labour mobility) to address several other issues such as uncertainty, welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we make flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) endogenous in order to evaluate the impact convergence has on the EU-15 and the inter action between the two regions through FDI. We find that in a general equilibrium setting, fears of adverse effects resulting from a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMCs are not well founded.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Europe

58125. The Rise of China with Special Reference to Arms Supplies

Author:
Peter Brookes, Bruno Tertrais, and Alexei D. Voskressenski
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Like the rest of the world, Europe has been fascinated by the emergence of China for a long time, and there has been an official relationship between the EU and the People's Republic of China for 30 years now. This relationship was upgraded in 1998. It now takes the form of a China-EU summit every year, the latest having taken place in December 2004. The EU became China's main trading partner in 2004, with trade between the two parties soaring to €160 billion.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Development
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

58126. Financial Consequences of Widowhood in Europe: Cross-Country and Gender Differences

Author:
Namkee Ahn
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
We document in this paper the financial consequences of widowhood using both cross-section and panel data from the European Community Household Panel. The research reveals that there are large differences across countries. For example, widowed persons in Greece and Portugal have the lowest income – less than a half that of those widowed in Austria. Cross-country differences decrease somewhat if we consider household income net of housing costs, owing to the higher share of home ownership in low-income countries. Further, the income reduction upon widowhood is generally larger for widows than it is for widowers. The difference in income between the genders is largest in Denmark, Spain, Austria and Finland, where widower s enjoy an income that is more than 30% higher that of widows. The main culprit of the differences in income between widows and widowers lies in pension regulations. As today's elderly women an d those approaching old age spent their working years in an era where women worked at home, raised children and did not participate in the labour market, many depend mostly on survivorship pensions as their main source of income. Yet in most countries this kind of pension tends to be much lower than the applicable old-age pension, owing to the prevailing pension laws. Consequently, the financial situation of widows is unlikely to improve in the medium term unless pension regulations change.
Topic:
International Relations, Demographics, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Greece, Denmark, and Spain

58127. A Gravity Model under Monopolistic Competition

Author:
Kari E. O. Alho
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper presents an alternative derivation of the gravity equation for foreign trade, which is explicitly based on monopolistic competition in the export markets and which is more general than previously seen in the literature. In contrast with the usual specification, our model allows for the realistic assumption of asymmetry in mutual trade flows. The model is estimated for trade in Europe, producing evidence that trade flows and barriers do indeed reveal strong asymmetry. We then carry out a simulation, based on the estimated model, of the general equilibrium effects (through trade) of the UK's possible entrance into the economic and monetary union.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

58128. Impact of Public R Financing on Private R Does Financial Constraint Matter?

Author:
Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study analyses how public R financing impacts companies. Our main goal is to study whether public and private R financing are substitutes or complements, and whether this impact differs between financially constrained and unconstrained companies. Our company-level panel data cover the period from 1996 to 2002. The statistical method employed in the research takes into account the possibility that receiving public support may be an endogenous factor. Our results suggest that public R financing does not crowd out privately financed R Instead, receiving a positive decision to obtain public R funds increases privately financed R Furthermore, our results suggest that this additionality effect is bigger in large firms than in small firms.
Topic:
Emerging Markets and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

58129. WTO Agricultural Negotiations: A Comparison of the Harbinson Proposal and the Swiss Formula

Author:
Martina Brockmeier, Marianne Kurzweil, Janine Pelikan, and Petra Salamon
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The WTO agricultural negotiations of the Doha round are a key issue in the public debate. This paper analyses the effects of different options to improve market-access on the basis of a GTAP model, comparing the impact of the Harbinson proposal and the Swiss formula on trade balances. An extended version of the GTAP model is used to first project a base run that includes factors arising from Agenda 2000, EU enlargement, the EBA agreement and the EU's mid-term review. The policy simulation run additionally includes the WTO negotiations. Here, the model is differentiated between three experiments. While the first experiment simply implements the Harbinson proposal, the second one additionally takes into account an adoption of the EBA agreement by all industrialised countries. In the third experiment, the tariff cuts are based on the Swiss formula using a coefficient of 33 instead of the tiered approach of the Harbinson proposal.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

58130. Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area

Author:
Ville Kaitila
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

58131. Scenarios for Modelling Trade Policy Effects on the Multifunctionality of European Agriculture

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Janet Dwyer, David Baldock, Hervé Guyomard, and Dorota Klepacka
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a precise specification for the scenarios that partners would attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled) domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised that national or sub-national models will require an additional level of national or regional specification before they can be run, and that each national team will be required to do this drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional commentary about the significant differences, and thus the difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of the new member states.
Topic:
International Relations and Agriculture
Political Geography:
Europe

58132. Multilateral Market-Access Reforms of the Doha Round: A Preliminary Assessment of Implications for EU Agricultural Trade

Author:
Wusheng Yu and Hans G. Jensen
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The July package of the Doha Round of trade negotiations stipulates that a tiered-formula approach should be used to significantly reduce market access barriers across countries, implying that the EU would have to make larger cuts to its high external tariffs, in comparison with many other WTO members such as the US. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the likely impact of the tiered-formula reform approach on EU agricultural sectors. Numerical simulations of a multilateral market-access reform scenario show that such cuts would lead to across-the-board decreases in intra-EU trade flows, as compared with a baseline projection. While intra-EU trade flows would decrease, the EU's trade with the rest of the world would increase. Yet such increases would not be symmetric – imports into the EU would increase more than exports, resulting in larger external trade deficits or smaller external trade surpluses in many EU agricultural products. Further, the resulting adjustments in member states' production and net trade positions are not equal: the new member states would generally lose part of their export shares in the EU market to external competitors, as highlighted in the cases of bovine meat and dairy products.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

58133. What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? - Monitoring the Ratification Debates

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, and Justus Schönlau
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a survey conducted among national experts associated with the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented by additional sources of information on the remaining countries where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting developments and differences in the respective member states. The added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing situation.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

58134. A European Balkans?

Author:
Daniel Serwer, Jacques Rupnik, and Boris Shmelev
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Chairman recalled the reasons for holding this particular session. On the one hand, at the Thessaloniki meeting of the European Council (June 2003), the prospect was laid out of the Balkans being included, over time, within the European Union; hence, the title of the session. How that vision is to be fulfilled is obviously very much open to question, which is indeed one of reasons underlying the work of the new International Commission on the Balkans chaired by former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato. On the other hand, short-term events are going to put the Balkans at the centre of European concerns over the coming months in the run-up to the final status discussions in mid-2005: the Macedonian referendum in early November, the deployment of European Union forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina (operation Altea) in December and the rising expectations of Kosovar Albanians following the October 2004 elections. To introduce the session three papers were presented.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

58135. The Food Aid Debate in Trade and Development

Author:
Andreas Schneider
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It is generally agreed that making progress towards eradicating hunger worldwide is a moral obligation for the richer countries of the world. The instrument known as food aid is widely regarded as an important vehicle for providing assistance to needy countries. However, fresh debates in the present Doha round of WTO negotiations have brought a renewed interest in food aid issues. The Doha round is designed to put development at the centre of trade negotiations, and along with agriculture, to the fore among the contentious issues to be agreed.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

58136. Who finances the Queen's CAP payments? The CAP as a dooH niboR Scheme

Author:
Richard E. Baldwin
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Thanks to the British Freedom of Information Act, the list of all CAP payments to English farms is public. It shows that the CAP is a dooH niboR scheme (that's Robin Hood spelled backwards). Table 1 records the CAP receipts for some of Britain's richest royalty. Why do royalty get paid? The CAP makes payments to farm owners, not to farmers, and about 40% of EU farmland is not farmed by its owner.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

58137. Industry Location and Climate Change Policy-Making in the United States

Author:
Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Within the United States, the locations of carbon intensive industries have important implications for climate policy. This paper examines the state level and regional patterns in the distributions of key industries – coal, oil gas and autos – and their implications for US climate policy-making. It concludes that the coal industry has a disproportionate impact on climate policy because of the distorting effect of the role of a few key coal states in national elections. The analysis is presented in the context of a 'pluralistic political economy' analytical model of the US economy and political system.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

58138. Technology in a Post-2012 Transatlantic Perspective

Author:
Christian Egenhofer
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU and the US have found themselves supporting two polar views on which strategy is the most effective in achieving stabilisation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 'market pull' vs 'technology push'. As an advocate of the latter, the US asserts that the principal emphasis should be on technology development, financed through typical public R programmes. It argues that it would be preferable to invest in the short term in R and to adopt emissions limitations later, when new technologies will have lowered the cost of limiting GHG emissions. In supporting the 'market-pull' approach, the EU argues that technological change is an incremental process emanating primarily from business and industry, induced by government incentives. According to this logic, profit-seeking firms will respond with technological innovation.
Topic:
Development and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

58139. Capital Adequacy vs. Liquidity Requirements in Banking Supervision in the EU

Author:
Karel Lannoo and Jean-Pierre Casey
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The debate on banking supervision over the last decade has largely focused on capital requirements and solvency of financial institutions. The interaction between solvency and liquidity has been much less debated. Traditionally, it was assumed that once solvency was under control, liquidity should pose no problem. Banks with sufficient capital should be able to obtain extra liquidity from the central bank against adequate collateral if needed. Furthermore, the aim of the New Basel Accord to create a better alignment of regulatory capital with the risk to which banks are exposed, and the stronger focus on diversification, should eventually reduce mismatches between solvency and effective liquidity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

58140. Is the IMF business model still valid?

Author:
Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Since the Asian crisis, the IMF has undergone a deep process of soul searching, trying to extract lessons from the experience. External criticism has been abundant, and basically all three of the IMF's main areas of work – surveillance, crisis prevention and resolution, and poverty reduction – have been called into question. Several years later, there is a feeling that not much has been achieved, and key questions remain unanswered. As the world business cycle matures, and thus the likelihood of further crises slowly increases, it is critical for the stability of the world financial system to discuss what the IMF's business model should look like.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

58141. The New Capital Requirements Directive: What pieces are still missing from the puzzle?

Author:
Rym Ayadi
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
After almost seven years of hard work to produce a new substantive piece of legislation updating the current banking regulation for European credit institutions and investment firms – the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) – it looks like its timely adoption is still uncertain. The main problem is the dissatisfaction of Parliament with its limited role in comitology and in the Lamfalussy process, which has led it to suspend 'temporarily' the comitology provisions of the CRD, casting doubt over the future ability to amend the legislation. The European Constitution addresses Parliament's concern about ensuring democratic accountability in the comitology process in Art. 36. The pause for reflection on the Constitution prompted by the no-votes in the French and Dutch referenda has re-ignited the issue and is forcing EU institutions to seek a new inter-institutional agreement on this issue.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

58142. Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: The Cases of Ukraine and Egypt

Author:
Madalena Resende and Hendrik Kraetzschmar
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Political parties are the backbone of any functioning representative democracy. They are the agents that compete in the political arena for public office by offering programmatic alternatives to voters. It is not surprising therefore that an analysis of countries that have failed to democratise shows political parties suffering from a severe pathology that renders them weak institutions. In both the eastern and the southern neighbourhood of the EU, a type of party has emerged, the 'party of power' characterised by its dependence on the state, the absence of ideology and the linkage with specific sectoral groups. Examples of such parties can be found in Ukraine during the reign of President Kuchma and in present-day Egypt.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Egypt

58143. The EU's Fight against International Terrorism - Security Problems, Insecure Solutions

Author:
Thierry Balzacq and Sergio Carrera
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The investigations on the London attacks of 7 July 2005 have yet to clarify the intricate storyline of the bombings. Yet, the European Union has already set about tightening up its fight against international terrorism through policies that, unfortunately, compound the difficulty of addressing the challenge. The problems arise partly because the policies put forward do not match the diagnosis nor do they fully comply with the principles of legitimacy, proportionality and efficiency. In addition, it is unclear how these Community measures will minimise the lack of trust among member states, which has put the brakes on the implementation of instruments adopted after the Madrid attacks. This relates to the vexed question of the extent to which intergovernmental initiatives such as the Prüm Treaty are compatible with a credible EU policy in the area of terrorism.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe and London

58144. The Black Sea as Epicentre of the Aftershocks of the EU's Earthquake

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It so happens that the epicentre of the EU's referenda earthquake – by way of its external impact – has now been located exactly in the middle of the Black Sea. Paradoxically, this comes at the same time that the region has begun to show signs of possibly getting a grip on itself.
Topic:
Government and International Organization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Romania

58145. Egypt's Moment of Reform: A Reality or Illusion?

Author:
Emad El-Din Shahin
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The movement for democratic reform in Egypt seems to be gathering strength. Some of the factors that would make a good case for democratic transformation are rapidly converging: the formation of a wide spectrum of discontented segments in society; the mushrooming of pro-reform grass-roots movements that agree on a clear list of short-term demands; and a sympathetic pro-reform international context. With presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in September and November respectively, will Egypt finally experience its democratic spring? The answer to this question still seems uncertain. The reform movement faces numerous challenges: the possibility of being sidelined by an agreement between the regime and external actors for the sake of stability and containing change; regime repression of the reform movement; and the radicalisation of the movement itself and the possible eruption of sporadic violence or chaos. For reform to become a reality and not another missed opportunity, certain structural changes and institutional safeguards must be introduced.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

58146. Climate Change in the US Government Budget - Funding for Technology and Other Programmes, and Implications for EU-US Relations

Author:
Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With increasing Congressional support for funding climate change technology programmes, as reflected in passage of the Hagel/Pryor amendment to the energy policy bill in June 2005, issues about the climate change budget are becoming more salient. In this Policy Brief, Congressional and Presidential actions on several recent budgets are examined for the four principal areas of the climate change budget: technology, science, international and tax credits. The emphasis is on energy technology in particular, because of its salience in current policy discussions and its relative size in financial terms. Highlights of the findings include the following: Congress imposed substantial (63.3%) increases over the administration's climate change technology proposals for 2004 and then small increases for FY2005. For 2006, the administration has proposed reductions compared with the Congressionally-enacted levels in the technology component – reductions in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms (-4.1% and -5.6%, respectively). The administration has also proposed cuts for fiscal 2006 in the science and international programmes (-2.9 and -19.0% in real terms). These and other differences in Presidential and Congressional approaches to funding climate change programs provide further evidence that the Presidential-Congressional divide on climate policy is continuing to widen. There is an emerging bi-partisan Congressional coalition in favour of increased spending on a wide range of climate change programmes. This shift will affect EU-US relations on climate change issues for the remainder of the current administration until 2008, and beyond as well.
Topic:
Economics and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

58147. The Real Budget Battle: Une crise peut en cacher une autre

Author:
Richard E. Baldwin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The failure to reach a budget deal at the June summit may prove a blessing in disguise. The spectacular failure of the European Council to agree the last-minute compromise on the 2007-2013 Financial Perspective generated massively negative media coverage. In the short run, it will create huge difficulties for the EU, but things might have been even worse had they agreed.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

58148. Should ratification proceed? An Assessment of Different Options after the Failed Referenda

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
After the resounding Dutch no-vote of 62%, ratification of the Constitutional Treaty has become even less likely than it already was after the political earthquake caused by the French referendum three days before. While the German Chancellor and the French President encourage other countries to continue with the ratification process, the British message is clear: Any attempt to proceed at this point would be pointless. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw found rather subtle words in the House of Commons to describe the situation, but other sources suggest that instead of wasting their time on a lengthy and useless exercise that would cost the EU even more support, European leaders should bury the Constitution at the upcoming European Summit on 16-17 June (or soon afterwards) and then settle for something 'more modest'.
Topic:
Government and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

58149. Plan B

Author:
Richard Baldwin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The resounding French 'non' will have important consequences for French domestic politics. It may also change the way EU leaders proceed with future Treaties. But I do not believe that it will be the 'political tsunami' for the EU that many observers have predicted. Two reasons buttress this belief.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

58150. The Europeanisation of the Transnistrian Conflict

Author:
Marius Vahl
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
To describe the Transnistrian conflict as 'frozen' is becoming less and less appropriate. Although the conflict remains unresolved, there have been a number of significant and at times dramatic developments in recent years, both in the diplomatic efforts to negotiate a settlement, and in the underlying geopolitical alignments and political and economic structures sustaining the conflict. It is argued here that these changes are primarily because of the European Union.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

58151. Political Integration in Europe and America: Towards a Madisonian Model for Europe

Author:
Mark C. Christie
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
While integration in Europe is, in several important aspects, already more advanced than it was in America during the decades prior to the American Civil War, there are important differences that make deeper political integration comprising all members of the European Union unlikely in the near term. A smaller group of EU members, however, is likely to continue towards deeper integration, although questions of constitutional legitimacy must be confronted and resolved. European integrationists may find the federalist principles of James Madison, regarded as the father of the American Constitution, valuable both for deeper integration and wider expansion. A Madisonian federal model for Europe could prove acceptable both to many euro-federalists and euro-sceptics and thus advance the cause of European integration. Ironically, a European federal union based on Madisonian principles would be much closer to the vision of many of America's founders than the federal structure of present-day America.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

58152. EU-Russia - Four Common Spaces and the Proliferation of the Fuzzy

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
On the 10th of May the EU and Russia signed four 'roadmap' documents at summit level in Moscow, on the Common Economic Space, the Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice, the Common Space of External Security and the Common Space on Research, Education and Culture. This was the culmination of two year's work since the May 2003 summit that decided in principle to create the four spaces as a long-term project. It was intended also to give new momentum to the relationship, after seeing that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 had not become a motor for anything very substantial, while the subsequent phase (in 1999) of swapping common strategy documents also led nowhere in particular.
Topic:
International Relations and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

58153. What Could be Saved from the European Constitution if Ratification Fails? The Problems with a 'Plan B'

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The pressure is on for the defenders of the European Constitution. Although initially it seemed as if referenda would only be problematic in countries that have a reputation for a certain degree of Euroscepticism, now even France and the Netherlands look like unsafe candidates for public approval. While there is still a fair chance that a majority of the French will vote 'yes' when actually at the ballot box, there is an understandable nervousness among prointegrationists. A French 'no' would be the most serious obstacle that any one member state among those holding a referendum could create. In the likely case that other member states besides France then reject the text – possibly for entirely different or even opposing reasons – it would become extremely difficult to 'save' the Constitution in its entirety.
Topic:
Government, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

58154. Treatment of Coronary Artery Disease: What Does Rationing Do?

Author:
Henry J. Aaron
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Providing all beneficial care to those who need it is rapidly becoming unaffordable, even for a nation as rich as the United States. The highly decentralized U.S. payment system is unique in its lack of effective levers for limiting health care spending, and managed care has largely been ineffective. A different solution, considered extreme by many in the United States, is rationing. The need to ration healthcare has long been a reality in the United Kingdom where healthcare spending must be covered by an annual budget accounting for only 7.6 percent of GDP—about half the U.S. share. These decisions are perhaps most difficult in regards to treatment of conditions that are literally matters of life or death, such as coronary artery disease. This brief examines reasons for the differences in treatment and outcomes in the United States and Britain, and discusses the difficulty of rationing care in the United States, where a unique payment system now uses income from those with health insurance to cover the medical costs of the uninsured.
Topic:
Health
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

58155. Oxfam Publishing: What happened in Hong Kong?: Initial analysis of the WTO Ministerial, December 2005

Author:
Duncan Green
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The WTO Hong Kong ministerial meeting was a lost opportunity to make trade fairer for poor people around the world. Rich countries put their commercial interests before those of developing countries. Small progress in agriculture was more than cancelled out by anti-development texts in services and industrial tariffs. Most of the difficult decisions were put off to a further meeting in early 2006.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Hong Kong

58156. Oxfam Publishing: Back to work: how people are recovering their livelihoods 12 months after the tsunami

Author:
Steve Jennings
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
A year has passed since the tsunami, and it is time to remember the many who lost their lives. It is also time to assess the effectiveness of the relief and reconstruction operations so far. This report is intended to outline the work that has been undertaken to restore and improve the livelihoods of tsunami-affected people. It recognises the poverty in which many people were living before the tsunami. It describes how the tsunami destroyed what meagre livelihoods these people had, and how it threatened to plunge millions more into poverty.
Topic:
International Relations, Disaster Relief, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Asia

58157. Oxfam Publishing: Girls' Education in Africa

Author:
Sam Gibson
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa has some huge problems to reslove if it is to achieve gender equality in education, and fulfill the Millennium Development Goals related to education and gender. Conversely, the region has some of the most innovative and enterprising examples of initiative that promote gender equality in education. This paper focuses on sub-Saharan Africa and considers some of the most significant obstacles that African girls face in achieving the education that is their right. The paper then reviews the most significant initiatives–those that are 'gender-neutral' and those that have a specific focus aon gender equality–that have enabled African countries to overcome these obstacles.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Africa

58158. Oxfam Publishing: A place to stay, a place to live: challenges in providing shelter in India, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka after the tsunami

Author:
Alex Renton and Robin Palmer
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
On 26 December 2004, an earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra triggered a tsunami that hit the coasts of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand, the Maldives, Malaysia, Burma, the Seychelles, and Somalia.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Malaysia, India, Asia, Sri Lanka, Burma, Thailand, and Somalia

58159. Oxfam Publishing: No Soft Landing: As China opens its markets, US subsidies are making life hard for cotton farmers

Author:
Phoenix Leung Pui Fung
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Cotton is an important crop for some of the poorest areas of China, and millions of cotton farmers depend on it for their livelihoods. Cotton's high economic returns have helped, and continue to help, bring many farmers in the poor western provinces of Gansu and Xinjiang out of poverty. Cotton production is not only essential to the development of China's textile industry; it is also a labour-intensive crop that demands a large workforce in rural areas. It has thus contributed to easing the pressures of rural underdevelopment in China, at a time when the country is faced with seriously high levels of surplus labour and lack of development potential in rural areas.
Topic:
Globalization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

58160. Oxfam Publishing: Blood on the floor: how the rich countries have squeezed development out of the WTO Doha negotiations

Author:
Duncan Green
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Four years on, the Doha Round looks increasingly unlikely to deliver on its promises to the world's poor. Rich countries have sidelined developmjent concerns and insisted on, among other conditions, the "blood on the floor" rule, i.e. obtaining economically painful concessions from all countries, including poor ones. In agriculture, trade rules look set to remain stacked against developing countries and poor farmers. Talks on industrial tariffs could jeopardise the industries of poor countries. If the rich countries fail to significantly improve their offer at the WTO ministerial meeting in Hong Kong in December 2005, developing countries should not be expected to sign on to a bad deal.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Hong Kong

58161. Oxfam Publishing: Mind the Gap: Countdown to Viet Nam's Accession to the WTO

Author:
Mary Kirkbride
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Viet Nam is entering its final stages of accession negotiations. Although it is unlikely that it will achieve the goal of joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) by the time of the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference in December, negotiators want a swift end to the process. Analysis of progress madebetween the two Working Party meetings of April and September 2005 reveals that Working Party members are continuing to demand further concessions from the Vietnamese negotiators. If agreed to, these concessions could have potentially damaging consequences for Viet Nam's ability to safeguard the livelihoods of its poorest people.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Asia and Vietnam

58162. Oxfam Publishing: Euro-Med: Ensuring a fair deal

Author:
Nishant Pandey and Yara Abdul-Hamid
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
When the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (Euro-Med) was announced in Barcelona with a great fanfare in 1995, it was hoped that it would herald a new age in relations between the European Union (EU) and its ten southern Mediterranean partner countries, bringing unprecedented opportunities in the social, economic, and political fields.
Topic:
International Relations, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

58163. Oxfam Publishing: Why developing countries need tariffs: How WTO NAMA negotiations could deny developing countries' right to a future

Author:
Ha-Joon Chang
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The NAMA negotiations are heading towards a development disaster. If the developed countries have their way and force the developing countries to massively cut (or even altogether eliminate) industrial tariffs on a line-by-line basis in an irreversible manner, the future prospect of industrial development, and therefore economic development, in today's developing countries is truly bleak.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization

58164. Oxfam Publishing: A mountain to climb: What needs to be done to prevent further deaths following the Pakistan earthquake and to enable survivors to rebuild their lives and livelihoods

Author:
Ben Phillips
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The 8 October 2005 earthquake–Pakistan's biggest ever natural disaster–generated sympathy and support from people around the world. The Government of Pakistan reacted swiftly and with remarkable energy. However, major and immediate challenges remain. Six weeks after the earthquake, the response is not yet being organised in a manner that ensures that peoples' rights and needs are being met, according to international humanitarian principles.Donor countries need to provide their fair share of the resources and help required.The international response needs to be co-ordinated and led through a properly resourced, empowered, and staffed UN presence.The continuing relief and reconstruction effort requires civil authority management and civil society participation, and an early handover, where practical, by the military.All those involved in the response have an obligation to ensure not merely the restoration of bearable poverty, but 'reconstruction plus'– to build back better than before. The accountable management of funds and adherence to proper building standards are key to the reconstruction effort.The international community needs to fulfil its obligations not only in the relief phase but in longer-term reconstruction too, through a package of measures on aid and debt.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

58165. Oxfam Publishing: Non-agricultural market access (NAMA) talks threaten development: Six reasons why a fundamentally different approach is needed

Author:
Duncan Green and Marita Hutjes
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The WTO's current NAMA (non-agricultural market access) negotiations will not lead to a pro-development outcome. Developed countries are demanding excessive opening to imports which, if agreed, could destroy local businesses and jobs in developing countries without bringing compensating economic gains. Poor-country governments will face balance of payments problems, loss of tax revenue, and downward pressure on workers conditions and rights, and their future industrial development prospects will be undermined.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization

58166. Oxfam Publishing: Green but not clean: Why a comprehensive review of Green Box subsidies is necessary

Author:
Liz Stuart
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Green Box subsidies, by definition of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), are not allowed to distort trade. This is why, under the terms of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), countries may provide as many Green Box subsidies as they like. ActionAid, CIDSE, and Oxfam believe, as this briefing note will show, that the EU and the USA are using this provision to continue to give support that is manifestly trade-distorting, thereby causing serious damage to farmers in developing countries. At least $40bn of Green Box payments annually are likely to be trade-distorting and therefore break WTO rules.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

58167. Oxfam Publishing: Africa and the Doha Round: Fighting to keep development alive

Author:
Jennifer Brant
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
As the poorest continent on earth, Africa needs debt relief, aid, and trade to help it to alleviate poverty and achieve sustainable development. Unfortunately, unfair trade rules and supply constraints impede Africa's capacity to trade. As a result, it captures a mere one per cent of world trade.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

58168. Oxfam Publishing: Make Extortion History: The case for development-friendly WTO accession for the world's poorest countries

Author:
Shuna Lennon
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper aims to make the case for a complete overhaul of the way in which Least-Developed Country (LDC) applicants hoping for accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are treated by the WTO itself, and by the member countries that elect to join the working party dealing with the accession application.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization

58169. Oxfam Publishing: Predictable funding for humanitarian emergencies: a challenge to donors

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Every year the lives of millions of people are devastated by natural disasters, conflict and other humanitarian emergencies. 2005 has seen particularly extreme humanitarian emergencies including the tsunami, the Sahel food crisis, and hurricanes Katrina and Stan. Tackling these crises requires a range of actions including immediate humanitarian assistance and long-term development. This short paper focuses on one concrete way in which the global humanitarian response could be improved to help prevent avoidable suffering and death — the upgrading of the existing UN Central Emergency Revolving Fund (CERF) to a new Central Emergency Response Fund.
Topic:
International Relations, Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Nations

58170. Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry, Middle East Briefing

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

58171. Nepal: Beyond Royal Rule

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is in turmoil and the monarchy is in question. King Gyanendra had calculated that his authoritarian moves since October 2002 would return order to a land wracked by Maoist insurgency and political instability but he has failed. The seven months since the royal coup have seen security degenerate under a royal government with no plans for peace and democracy. The Maoists seized the initiative by announcing a unilateral three month ceasefire on 3 September 2005. The international community needs to recognise that its calls for palace/political party reconciliation as the sole path toward stability are unrealistic. New lines need to be explored, beginning with support for the ceasefire and the tentative dialogue underway between the parties and the Maoists.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

58172. A Crowded Field: Groups of Friends, the United Nations and the Resolution of Conflict

Author:
Tessa Whitifield
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper traces the evolution of groups of Friends—understood as informal groups of states formed to support the peacemaking of the United Nations—from the emergence of Friends of the Secretary-General on El Salvador in 1990, at a moment of post-Cold War optimism regarding the UN's peacemaking capacity, to the more complex (and crowded) environment for conflict resolution of the mid-2000s. The intervening fifteen years saw an explosion of groups of all kinds to support peacemaking, peacekeeping and post-conflict peacebuilding, a mirror of the extraordinary upsurge in a range of efforts to address global security in this period. Analysis of the groups is complicated by the great diversity they represent, including in the impact they have had on the processes with which they have been engaged. Indeed Annex I distinguishes four different categories of groups engaged with the UN in conflict resolution: Friends of the Secretary- General, Friends of a country, Contact groups and Implementation and/or monitoring groups. This paper's primary focus is on groups that have supported UN-led mediation efforts; however its analysis and conclusions embrace both issues specific to UN leadership, and broader considerations of the efficacy of group engagement in conflict management.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and United Nations

58173. Evolving Threats, Evolving Policy: US Attitudes and Multilateral Institutions for Nuclear, Biological, and Chemicals Weapons

Author:
Natasha Bajema
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The strategic environment underlying international policy responses to the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons (NBC) has undergone dramatic and rapid transformation since 1990. This process was catalyzed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union and more recently by the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. The threat of proliferation has emerged from the Cold War era as a multidimensional threat involving multiple and distinct classes of weapons (nuclear, biological and chemical weapons as well as radiological devices), increasing access to dual-use technology and materials, exponential advances in science and technology and greater numbers of actors (proliferating states and nonstate actors). Accordingly, the new dimensions of the proliferation threat require diverse and multi-faceted international responses, i.e. a comprehensive strategy at the global, national and sub-national levels.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States

58174. Discussion Paper on the High Level Panel on Threats Challenges and Change

Author:
Shepard Forman
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
There is by now ample evidence of substantial gaps in the planning, financing and implementation capacities for the critical civilian components of complex missions. While substantial improvements have been made over the years in the international community's peacebuilding capacities, concepts, policies and practice continue to evolve within the UN system, including the international financial institutions, and among bilateral donors. In proposing the creation of a Peacebuilding Commission and related Peacebuilding Support Office in the Secretariat, the High Level Panel is seeking to build on and consolidate these advances in order to strengthen national as well as the UN's and international community's shared capacity to prevent state failure and more effectively manage post ‐ conflict peacebuilding.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

58175. Football diplomacy

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn’t matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. Governments must influence individuals as well as elites to address global problems such as terrorism and disease and ‘branding’ has become critical to a state’s ability to attract trade, investment and international political support. But a new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia’s recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation. For the first time, Australia will have a significant sporting relationship with Asia. The question is, how can Australia best use this opportunity to enhance its regional image and engagement?
Topic:
Diplomacy and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

58176. How To Saving APEC

Author:
Dr. Malcolm Cook and Allen Gyngell
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the Problem? The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, APEC, has served Australian interests very well since its establishment in 1989, but it has lost its early momentum and is confused about its purposes. It faces competition from the new East Asian Summit. In 2007, Australia will chair APEC and host its 21 leaders in Sydney. How can we ensure that APEC is in good shape for that meeting and that it continues to serve the interests of the Asia Pacific region?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

58177. Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

58178. Multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle

Author:
Lance Joseph
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is meant to be underpinned by a three-part bargain: states without weapons were to foreswear them and the wherewithal to build them; states with such weapons were to get rid of them, gradually and as part of general nuclear disarmament; and all parties were to cooperate in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology

58179. Angels and Dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General

Author:
Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The relationship between the UN and Asia can seem unfamiliar and distant. Most of New York's energy is consumed by the Middle East and Africa rather than Northeast, South and Southeast Asia; the international organisation can seem Atlanticist in orientation. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean the strict view of state sovereignty adopted by many Asian capitals leads them to keep the UN at arm's length. As always, however, the story is more complex: we need to differentiate between the UN's work in Asia on the one hand, and Asian behaviour at the UN on the other. Since 1945, the UN has contributed to the Asian security order but only at the margins, its security role circumscribed by power politics and Asian approaches to security. By contrast, Asian states have always been keen to exercise their prerogatives in New York, viewing their UN activities as a marker of sovereignty and a source of prestige. The Brief reviews this history and sets out the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia

58180. Buying air warfare destroyers: a strategic decision

Author:
Hugh White
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Air Warfare Destroyer [AWD] project is Australia's biggest proposed defence acquisition in decades. Cabinet has already chosen a company to build the ships. But before minsters go further and sign contracts, they should stop and ask two big questions which have not so far been properly considered. First, would AWDs do enough for Australia's defence to justify their cost, and what would we need to sacrifice to afford them? Second, are we buying them the right way? There are good reasons to think that the answer to both questions is no. The AWD's main purpose is to provide air defence for ADF amphibious operations in medium- to high-level conflicts. But such operations would not be a high priority for Australia. The forces we could deploy are small, and the risks they would face, even with AWDs, are daunting. And if it was necessary, amphibious operations could be better protected for air attack by proactive counter-air campaigns or fighter escorts. For coalition operations, AWDs would only add another option to a wide range of highly capable contributions we can already make, including submarines, maritime patrol aircraft, AEW and fighters. And AWDs would be marginal to any future development of ballistic missile defences for Australia. So AWDs would provide few important new military options. But their high price imposes big opportunity costs in the already-squeezed defence investment program. Unless Defence funding rises sharply, we can afford them only by cutting other major capabilities. The most likely trade-off is the JSF project; cutting that would have serious strategic costs. So ministers should not commit to buying the AWDs before they have reviewed the Defence Capability Plan as a whole to see the full implications for the ADF's overall capability. If ministers nonetheless decide to buy AWDs, they should look very carefully at how the project is being developed and managed. As they did with Navy's troubled Collins submarines and Seasprite helicopters, Defence is setting unique Australian requirements that will unnecessarily add to the cost and risk of the project. And they are experimenting with a new acquisition strategy that provides less competition and leaves more of the risk of the project in Defence's hands. A simpler and more competitive acquisition strategy would provide better value for money. The simplest and cheapest of all would be to buy overseas. There is no compelling strategic reason to buy AWDs, and even less to build them in Australia.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

58181. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia

58182. Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge

Author:
Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Taiwan is in the middle of a deep social transformation that is redefining the way its people identify themselves, how it sees its place in the world and, most urgently, its relationship with China. Taiwan's metamorphosis, and China's reaction to it, are making it more difficult to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. Washington and its regional allies, including Australia, need to understand these changes better and to incorporate responses to them into their policies.
Topic:
International Relations and Democratization
Political Geography:
China, Washington, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia

58183. Australians speak 2005: public opinion and foreign policy

Author:
Ivan Cook
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australians feel positive and self-confident about Australia's place in the world, but we also have a realistic sense of our limitations and vulnerabilities. A vast majority believe Australia is 'a good international citizen' (82%), 'important in Asia' (82%), and 'well-placed to succeed in a competitive world' (79%), while few agree with the notion that we are 'unimportant in global politics' (37%). But three quarters of respondents also think we are 'vulnerable to external threats' (76%), and while the population is evenly split on whether we are 'independent minded', 65% think we are 'a follower not a leader'.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

58184. Sensible climate policy

Author:
Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Kyoto Protocol enters into force on February 16, 2005. Nearly thirteen years after negotiations began at the Rio Earth Summit and seven years after the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, this should be a cause for global celebration. Yet the basic tenets on which the Kyoto Protocol are built are flawed and leave it worryingly vulnerable to failure. Already proponents of Kyoto are looking for alternatives “beyond Kyoto”. It is no accident that it has taken so long for the Protocol to enter into force with so few of the major future greenhouse emitters effective participants.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

58185. Beyond Arafat

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Arafat may have suffered a lingering physical demise, but politically he has long been in decline. He lost much of his international credibility over his unwillingness to rein in Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and domestically his authority had gradually been eroded. While lacking an anointed heir, a succession plan is more or less in place. Political infighting is a possibility, though a desire for unity will probably prevail in the short term. But Arafat's successors will struggle to end the chaos and lawlessness into which the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have descended. Over the longer term Arafat's passing will remove the main obstacle to internal Palestinian reform. It has the potential to re-invigorate the peace process although it will not solve the fundamentals of the current impasse. It will also complicate Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, even if his instinct will be to press ahead.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East

58186. Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View

Author:
Richard N. Cooper
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Three propositions have become conventional wisdom in Washington and elsewhere. Americans save too little. As a consequence, the US current account deficit is unsustainably large. A necessary step to bring the global economy into sustainable balance is a significant appreciation of the Chinese currency, which in practice has been fixed to the dollar for over a decade.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Globalization

58187. After Argentina

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Argentina has finally restructured its foreign debt. Its credit rating is up, and its debt is back in the index. The new bonds are trading roughly in line with Brazil and Uruguay's, just above 400 basis points over treasuries for instruments of comparable duration. Argentina is raising new money from foreign investors. Earlier in the summer of 2005, it reopened a domestic dollar issue to accommodate excess foreign demand. Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are on again. They might even sign a new disbursing program after the fall 2005 congressional elections. Like a bad dream, the 2001 default is fading into the night after three years of brisk growth and impressive fiscal management—even as the usual nabobs natter on about structural reform and unhappy bondholders.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:
South America

58188. A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China recently announced that it is adopting a basket of currencies as the peg for its exchange rate instead of the US dollar. This announcement raises questions of how such a system works, whether other East Asian countries would be advised to follow China in adopting a basket numeraire, and whether it would be advantageous to these countries if they were all to adopt the same basket. This brief answers these questions.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

58189. Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements

Author:
Dean A. DeRosa and John P. Gilbert
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the historical record of eight recent free trade agreements (FTAs). It also investigates the predictive power of two popular quantitative world trade models—the single-equation gravity model and the multiequation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model—as applied to three major trade liberalization agreements adopted during the 1990s: Mercosur, NAFTA, and the Uruguay Round Agreement, using the Rose gravity model and the GTAP general equilibrium model. Both models are found accurate in some instances, but intervening influences in the wake of trade liberalization episodes confound the challenge of drawing a strong conclusion in favor of one modeling approach over the other. Between the "naïve" gravity model and "naïve" CGE model predictions, we find that the former tends to overpredict intrabloc trade expansion (especially over horizons of five years and less) while the latter tends to underpredict. CGE models remain favored for ex post analysis of welfare impacts and the direct and indirect linkages between policy reforms and the numerous other economic variables of concern to policymakers and the public at large.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

58190. Prospects for Regional Free Trade in Asia

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Frustrated with lackluster momentum in the WTO Doha Round and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and mindful of free trade agreement (FTA) networks centered on the United States and Europe, Asian countries have joined the FTA game. By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and had negotiated but not implemented another seven. Asian nations are also actively negotiating some 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners, including Australia, Canada, Chile, the European Union, India, and Qatar. China has been particularly active since 2000. It has completed three bilateral FTAs—Thailand in 2003 and Hong Kong and Macao in 2004—and is initiating another 17 bilateral and regional FTAs. However, a regional Asian economic bloc led by China seems distant, even though China accounts for about 30 percent of regional GDP. As in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, many Asian countries are pursuing FTAs with countries outside the region. On present evidence, the FTA process embraced with some enthusiasm in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere more closely resembles fingers reaching idiosycratically around the globe rather than politico-economic blocs centered respectively on Beijing, Brussels, and Washington.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, Washington, Canada, India, Beijing, Asia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Hong Kong, Brussels, and Macao

58191. The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective

Author:
Catherine L. Mann and Katharina Plück
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The paper prepares new estimates for the elasticity of US trade flows using bilateral, commodity-detailed trade data for 31 countries, using measures of expenditure and trade prices matched to commodity groups, and including a commodity-and-country specific proxy for global supply-cum-variety. Using the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) we construct bilateral trade flows for 31 countries in four categories of goods based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's "end-use" classification system--autos, industrial supplies and materials-excluding energy, consumer goods, and capital goods. We find that using expenditure matched to commodity category yields more plausible values for the demand elasticities than does using GDP as the measure of demand that drives trade flows. Controlling for country and commodity fixed effects, we find that industrial and developing countries have demand elasticities that are statistically significant and that generally differ between development groups and across product categories. Relative prices for the industrial countries have plausible parameter values, are statistically significant and differ across product groups, but the relative prices for developing countries are poorly estimated. We find that variety is an important variable for the behavior of capital goods trade. Because the commodity composition of trade and of trading partners has changed dramatically, particularly for imports, we find that the demand elasticity for imports is not constant. Comparing the in-sample performance of the disaggregated model against a benchmark that uses aggregated data and GDP as the expenditure variable, our disaggregated model predicts exports better in-sample but does not predict imports as well as the benchmark model.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

58192. Importers, Exporters, and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Peter K. Schott, and Andrew B. Bernard
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper provides an integrated view of globally engaged US firms by exploring a newly developed dataset that links US international trade transactions to longitudinal data on US enterprises. These data permit examination of a number of new dimensions of firm activity, including how many products firms trade, how many countries firms trade with, the characteristics of those countries, the concentration of trade across firms, whether firms transact at arm's length or with related parties, and whether firms import as well as export. Firms that trade goods play an important role in the United States, employing more than a third of the US workforce. We find that the most globally engaged US firms, i.e. those that both export to and import from related parties, dominate US trade flows and employment at trading firms. We also find that firms that begin trading between 1993 and 2000 experience especially rapid employment growth and are a major force in overall job creation.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

58193. Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Offshoring

Author:
Lori G. Kletzer and J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
We develop a new empirical approach to identify tradable service activities. Contrary to conventional views of service activities as nontradable, we find a significant number of service industries and occupations that appear tradable and substantial employment in these tradable activities. Workers employed in tradable service activities differ from those employed in tradable manufacturing and nontradable services. Workers in tradable service activities have higher skill levels and are paid higher wages than manufacturing workers or workers in nontradable service activities. In general, we find little evidence that tradable service activities have lower employment growth than other service activities. However, evidence suggests lower employment growth at the lowest end of the skill distribution. There is also evidence of higher worker displacement rates in tradable services. Workers displaced from tradable service activities are different from displaced manufacturing workers: Displaced tradable service workers have higher skills and higher predisplacement earnings than displaced manufacturing workers.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

58194. Egypt after the Multi-Fiber Arrangement: Global Apparel and Textile Supply Chains as a Route for Industrial Upgrading

Author:
Dan Magder and Dan Magder
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Exporting through international supply chains was a successful way for East Asian countries to develop their textile and apparel industries in the 1970s and 1980s, but it is a less clear route for countries like Egypt trying to compete today. The challenge is particularly acute given the strength of competitors like China, and even more so in the post-MFA era. Some analysts suggest that "lean retailing" increases the importance of geography in exporting in the world of rapidly changing apparel fashion, in a way that could benefit a country like Egypt with its proximity to European end markets. Using a supply chain model, this paper suggests that shortening lead times can indeed have an impact on profits, but that the effect is not tremendous, being in the range of a 0.3 percent to 0.9 percent increase in profits for every week of improvement in lead times. The study also finds that the business environment in Egypt lags key comparator countries in several areas that help the firms compete in global apparel chains, although recent reforms by the Egyptian government are working to address several of these aspects. It concludes by exploring to what extent geography, trade preferences, and local production factors may help Egypt's textile and apparel industry carve out a role for itself in global supply chains, and provide an engine to drive industrial upgrading throughout the country.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, North Africa, and Egypt

58195. What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

Author:
Morris Goldstein and Anna Wong
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

58196. Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Halving the US current account deficit as a share of GDP is likely to impose a burden of $2,350 per capita on the United States, which explains why US policymakers want to postpone adjustment. The rest of the world relies on the economic stimulus of a widening US external deficit, which explains why they are not eager to see global adjustment. The paper examines three scenarios of exchange rate adjustments, calls on the Federal Reserve to take more account of the external deficit in its words and policy actions, and familiarly notes the need for US fiscal adjustment as part of an efficient adjustment process. Complementary policies are required in the rest of the world. The paper discusses the pattern of recent international capital flows and proposes an international reserve diversification standard to remove some of the uncertainty about the management of foreign exchange reserves.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States

58197. Explaining Middle Eastern Authoritarianism

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Arab political regimes are both unusually undemocratic and unusually stable. A series of nested statistical models are reported to parse competing explanations. The democratic deficit is comprehensible in terms of lack of modernization, British colonial history, neighborhood effects, reliance on taxes for government finance, and the Arab population share. Interpretation of the last variable is problematic: It could point to some antidemocratic aspect of Arab culture (though this appears not to be supported by survey evidence), or it could be a proxy for some unobservable such as investment in institutions of internal repression that may not be culturally determined and instead reflect elite preferences. Hypotheses that did not receive robust support include the presence of oil rents, the status of women, conflict with Israel or other neighbors, or Islam. The odds on liberalizing transitions occurring are low but rising. In this respect the distinction between the interpretation of the Arab ethnic share as an intrinsic cultural marker and as a proxy for some unobservable is important-if the former is correct, then one would expect the likelihood of regime change to rise only gradually over time, whereas if it is the latter, the probabilities may exhibit much greater temporal variability.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

58198. South Korea's Experience with International Capital Flows

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korea's experience is unparalleled in its combination of sustained prosperity, capital controls, and financial crisis. Over several decades South Korea experienced rapid sustained growth in the presence of capital controls. These controls and the delinking of domestic and international financial markets were an essential component of the country's state-led development strategy. As the country developed, opportunities for easy technological catch-up eroded, requiring more sophisticated corporate and financial sector decision making. But decades of financial repression had bequeathed a bureaucratized financial system and a formidable constellation of incumbent stakeholders opposed to transition to a more market-oriented development model. Liberalization undertaken in the 1990s was less a product of textbook economic analysis than of parochial politicking. The capital account liberalization program affected the timing, magnitude, and particulars of the 1997-98 crisis. Despite considerable reforms undertaken since the crisis, concerns remain about both South Korea's lending culture and its authorities' capacity to successfully regulate the more complex financial system. The main lesson of the South Korean case appears to be that while the state-led model may deliver impressive initial gains, transitioning out of this approach presents an exceedingly complex political-economy challenge.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

58199. Affinity and International Trade

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of American public attitudes toward foreign countries on the volume of trade. The issue is whether popular attitudes, as elicited in these surveys, convey any information about trust, risk, or transactions costs beyond what can be explained through standard economic models. The results of this paper suggest that they do, with a one standard deviation increase in warmth of feeling associated with a 20 to 31 percent larger trade volume when evaluated at the sample means. These public attitudes are in turn correlated with indices of cultural affinity and political ideology. A one standard deviation increase in the democracy score is associated with a 5 to 7 percent increase in trade. There might be additional secondary effects if democratization was associated with an increased likelihood of the removal of sanctions or the initiation of preferential trade relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

58200. Reform of the International Monetary Fund

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is a pleasure to testify before the Committee again concerning your ongoing oversight of the International Monetary Fund. The topic remains of great importance, and our Institute for International Economics will in fact be holding a major conference on IMF reform on September 23 to address a number of specific proposals for strengthening and enforcing the rules of the monetary system, improving the governance of the Fund itself, reforming its lending programs, and reassessing the ways in which it might be financed in the future. All members of the Subcommittee and staff are cordially invited to participate in our event.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Economics, and International Political Economy