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54102. Palestinian Refugees and the Peace Process
- Author:
- Elia Zureik
- Publication Date:
- 05-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- As a discipline, refugee studies is of a recent vintage and very much influenced by the more established tradition of migration studies. Analysis of (voluntary) migration tends to focus on individuals rather than groups. To the extent that groups are considered, they are treated as aggregates of individuals rather than as cohesive social units in the sociological sense of constituting communities with shared common historical experiences (Shami 1993). In contrast with immigrant status, refugee status is the outcome of involuntary forms of migration, in which displacement is often caused by events beyond the control of refugees, such as internal and external wars, state policies of expulsion and exclusion, development projects, and natural disasters.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Migration, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
54103. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Michael May, Michael Stankiewicz, Edward Fei, Celeste Johnson, and Tatsujiro Suzuki
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Since 1993, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), a state-wide policy research institute of the University of California, has coordinated a series of high-level, track two consultations among security experts and officials from China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Known as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), this forum has sought to reduce mistrust within the North Pacific region, and to avert conflicts among the major powers in Asia through ongoing, multilateral dialogues about current security issues. The informality of the process allows the participants to air their concerns and brainstorm about new approaches to building cooperation and reducing the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Asia, Korea, and Northeast Asia
54104. Symposium on UN Global Conferences
- Author:
- Benjamin Rivlin, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Arthur M. Schlesinger, Mehr Kahn, Jyoti Shankar Singh, Elissavet Stamatopoulou, Nitin Desai, John Mathiason, Waly N-Dow, and Paul M. Kennedy
- Publication Date:
- 02-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, City University of New York
- Abstract:
- When the record of the United Nations during its first half-century of existence is remembered in history, the continuum of UN-sponsored global conferences from the "Children's Summit in 1990 to the City Summit in 1996" will emerge as perhaps the most important contribution of the organized world community to the furtherance of human well-being. Neither mentioned nor foreseen in the Charter of the United Nations, these global conferences represent a notable example of innovation that is possible within the framework of the Charter to meet the challenges posed by changing conditions and circumstances in the world.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations
54105. Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series
- Author:
- Jon Faust
- Publication Date:
- 12-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic level, and instead is fixed at zero in all sample sizes. The paper explores necessary conditions for solving this problem, most notably showing that under weak conditions, forming valid confidence intervals requires that one limit consideration to a finite-dimensional time series model.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Education
54106. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle
- Author:
- Jon Faust and John S. Irons
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
54107. The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter
- Author:
- Ann L. Owen and Murat F. Iyigun
- Publication Date:
- 05-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Education, and International Trade and Finance
54108. Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson, Kari H. Eika, and Ragnar Nymoen
- Publication Date:
- 10-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden, and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is calculated as the weighted sum of changes in a short-term interest rate and the exchange rate relative to values in a baseline year. The weights aim to reflect these variables' effects on longer-term focuses of policy — economic activity and inflation. This paper derives analytical and empirical properties of MCIs in an attempt to ascertain their usefulness in monetary policy.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
54109. Regime Switching in the Dynamic Relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and Innovations in Nonborrowed Reserves
- Author:
- Chan Huh
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the finds rate and nonborrowed reserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have WO distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated. On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are characterized by large associated with a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
54110. Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece
- Author:
- Neil R. Ericsson and Sunil Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 07-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe