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53411. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players

Author:
Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea

53412. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

53413. HIV/AIDS in Asia

Author:
Tim Brown
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The HIV/AIDS epidemic began relatively late in Asia and, so far, HIV infections have not reached the high levels experienced in other parts of the world. Yet behaviors that increase the risk of transmitting HIV are not uncommon in many Asian societies. But there is some good news for countries facing the possibility of an HIV epidemic. Most early HIV transmission in Asia occurs in very specific groups, through needle sharing, anal sex, or sex work. Experience in Thailand and Cambodia has shown that it is possible to lower HIV transmission rates by aggressive prevention programs targeting these groups. Analysis of these programs points to policy recommendations for other Asian governments: obtain accurate information on HIV prevalence and risk behavior; target leaders for sustained commitment; provide the public with full and accurate information; move quickly to provide effective coverage of groups most at risk; sustain and expand prevention activities; convince lawmakers and local authorities to take a pragmatic approach; ensure the active involvement of key communities; and put an end to complacency.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Asia, Cambodia, and Thailand

53414. Changing Korean Perceptions of the Post-Cold War Era and the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:
Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For half a century the United States and South Korea have been united in an alliance that has simultaneously contained North Korea and projected American power into Northeast Asia. Now that alliance is being questioned by many South Koreans, whose country has developed from a poor, authoritarian state into the world's 11th largest economy and a vital democracy. Along the way South Koreans' views of themselves and of other nations have changed. Improved relations with China and Russia, and a policy of engagement with North Korea, have reduced the country's dependence on the United States and South Koreans' tolerance for what they view as American arrogance and unilateralism. Indeed, Koreans today view their Cold War allies (the United States and Japan) more negatively than their Cold War enemies (North Korea and China), a situation that would have been unimaginable a decade ago. The poorly coordinated North Korea policy of Seoul and Washington appears to be a direct cause of anti-Americanism, which will grow unless the two countries develop a more equal, mutually acceptable relationship.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Israel, South Korea, and North Korea

53415. Living with a Climate in Transition: Pacific Communities Plan for Today and Tomorrow

Author:
Eileen Shea
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Earth's climate is in a state of flux. Whether in terms of relatively short-term shifts, called climate variability, or long-term climate change associated with greenhouse gases, consequences of changing climate conditions appear unprecedented. Losses due to weather-related disasters have soared recently—especially in the Pacific, where island environments, societies, and infrastructures are particularly vulnerable. For generations, human response to climate events has been just that: response after the fact to phenomena that neither residents nor scientists adequately understood. Now, a growing body of information about the causes of climate events is enabling Pacific Islanders and others to anticipate events and move past being victims to become informed planners. This new knowledge can only be successfully applied via dynamic partnerships between science and society. Particularly promising is the emerging field of climate risk management, in which disaster management and climate science communities unite, forming model partnerships to plan for the inevitabilities linked with the planet's variable and changing climate.
Topic:
Environment and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

53416. Coast Guards: New Forces For Regional Order and Security

Author:
Sam Bateman
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) created new maritime law and extended maritime jurisdiction that were ex-pected to justify naval expansion. To some extent this has been so, but another trend is also apparent. Regional navies are concentrating on war-fighting capabilities while existing coast guards are being expanded and some countries are establishing coast guards for the first time. The protection of off-shore areas and resources is a central element of national security for most regional countries and an important consideration in nation building and governance. Coast Guards are emerging as important national institutions in Asia and the Pacific with the potential to make a major contribution to regional order and security. This development reflects a concern for coop-erative and comprehensive security and will facilitate regional maritime cooperation and confidence building. It is a positive factor for regional order and security and may constitute a revolution in maritime strategic thinking.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

53417. China's State-Owned Enterprises: Thriving or Crumbling?

Author:
Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Even though China's state firms lost their near-monopoly status after 1978, they still form the country's financial and industrial nucleus.Nevertheless, in early 1996 the total losses of these state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exceeded profits for the first time. With the economy threatened, offi-cialdom issued a mandate in 1997: SOEs must become profitable in three years. In 2001, statistics showed a massive turn around, and victory was declared. Despite doubts about the official statistics, substantial improvement did seem evident. The question was, what caused it? While massive layoffs and corporate restructuring did increase efficiency, most improvements have been the result of external factors such as debt restructuring and government-arranged buy-outs and mergers. This strategy offers short-term rewards, but could be a disaster in the long term. Real reform of China's state sector requires financial reforms that bite (even more urgent with WTO entry), serious moves toward a social security system for displaced workers, and more outright priva-tization of state firms to give non-state shareholders real power on their boards.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
China

53418. Reading, Writing and Reconciliation: Educational Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Valery Perry
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The post-war reconstruction and state-building process in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has been complex, with priorities changing as the country gradually normalizes and donor interests evolve. In mid-2002 the international community in BiH began a significant effort to modernize and reform BiH's education system to better prepare the country's youth to play productive social, economic and political roles in the future. Although educational reform gained significant attention in 2002, reforms efforts have been occurring at a variety of levels since 1996.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Education, and Reform
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

53419. The Ethnopolitical Dynamics of Elections

Author:
Stefan Wolff
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Elections are a key element in any political process because of their rule-legitimating function. They are, therefore, frequently used instruments at different levels of the political process (from local government to presidential elections) and in most types of political systems (from democracies to single-party totalitarian systems). In democratic and democratizing systems in particular, elections serve a variety of different purposes in addition to legitimating rule, including providing an institution for the expression of the popular will and providing mechanisms for peaceful change in government.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

53420. From Copenhagen to Brussels European defence: core documents, Volume IV

Author:
Antonio Missiroli
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
With the present issue, the 'European defence core documents' annual collection reaches its fourth volume – stretching from Copenhagen, where the last European Council of 2002 was held, to Brussels, where the last one of 2003 took place. In actual fact, the Thessaloniki European Council of June 2003 was the last one to be hosted by the country holding the rotational EU presidency. From now on, all European Councils will take place in Brussels – thus crucially depriving this collection of a distinctive title for each issue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe