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15421. Fit for 55: towards the achievement of an ambitious European political compromise for climate

Author:
Clémence Pèlegrin
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The adoption by the European Parliament of the Climate Law on 24th June last and by the Council on 28th endorses the binding nature of the target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions "by at least 55%" by 2030, compared to 1990 emission levels. After several months of sometimes heated dialogue between Member States, this adoption is a significant step forward in the EU's commitment to fight climate change under the Paris Agreement. On 14 July next, the ‘Fit for 55’ package, which is part of the Commission's work programme for 2021, will be published. This package will be presented in the particular context of the submission by Member States of their recovery plans and their assessment - and, where appropriate, support - by the Commission. This support is to be given with regard to compliance with the eleven assessment criteria defined by the Commission, two of which relate more specifically to climate and the environment. The first criterion concerns Member States' compliance with the 37% target for climate-focused expenditure. The second involves the respect of the “to do no significant harm” principle. For example, on 21st June, the Commission approved the Austrian recovery plan, which provides for 59% of recovery expenditure to be earmarked for the climate, well above the regulatory target of 37%. It is therefore in this context, which includes the confirmation of the Climate Law and the steering of recovery plans, that the future "Fit for 55" package will take place.
Topic:
Climate Change, Politics, European Union, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe

15422. Covid-19 Crisis and European Mobility: What lessons have been learnt? And what of the future?

Author:
Nicolas Blain
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Who would have thought that the European Commission, a year and a half after the start of the pandemic, would introduce a "European Covid certificate", a sesame allowing people to travel without difficulty within the European Union? The global impact of the Covid-19 health crisis led to this science-fiction scenario, after turmoil of unprecedented violence, which first shook the foundations of European unity and then damaged, probably permanently, despite the tangible success of the vaccination campaigns, all forms of European mobility and the various ecosystems linked to it. In this summer of 2021, synonymous with hope but also with nagging doubts, what initial conclusions can be drawn from the seismic event that the pandemic has caused for the mobility of European citizens, and what new positive prospects are opening up for the various mobility sectors, all of which are facing a before and after Covid-19?
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, Mobility, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

15423. Who will succeed Angela Merkel? Germany in a state of uncertainty three weeks before the federal elections

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 9 December, the President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, informed his fellow citizens that the next federal elections would take place on 26 September 2021. 54 political parties are standing for election, a record number in Germany's history. In the 1990s and early 2000s, fewer than 30 parties ran. In the last federal election in 2017, there were 42. The only certainty of the election is that Germany will have a new chancellor since Angela Merkel, after 16 years of government by her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in a "grand coalition", with the exception of the years 2009-2013 when she governed with the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), is not seeking reelection. After four terms as the head of the country's government, Angela Merkel remains very popular: last May, she held 60% of positive opinions and was ahead of all other political figures in Germany. "Germans appreciate Angela Merkel as a good manager, a chancellor who always seeks compromise,” declared Markus Inden of Trier University.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Angela Merkel
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

15424. In support of European Apprenticeships “Only the interest of the trainees counts”

Author:
Jean Arthuis
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European Union’s flagship programme, Erasmus+ is about to celebrate its thirty-fifth anniversary. It is both a formidable instrument for mobility, helping young people to discover other practices and other cultures and to speak a foreign language, as well as a formidable lever for broadening professional horizons and opening up to European citizenship. In recognition of its success, the Council and the Parliament have just increased its budget by 80% for the coming years. This financial effort will ensure that its benefits are finally spread to all young people, beyond the ranks of higher education. The "generations of Erasmus students" still include few apprentices who have experienced genuine immersion, long enough to produce all its beneficial effects. Mobility is a factor of inclusion offered to all young people, in particular to those who have struggled to find their place in general education. Vocational training is a healthy alternative because it gives confidence and self-esteem. Through apprenticeship, all young people, regardless of their educational background and abilities, are able to reveal their personal talent, which is often ignored and sometimes thwarted by the academic framework. The combination of learning and mobility, which is still unusual, is certainly a path to excellence. Its deployment is overdue, in the interests of young people, employers and the economy of the EU Member States.
Topic:
European Union, Employment, Economy, Mobility, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe

15425. The Common Agricultural Policy 2023-2027 Change and Continuity

Author:
Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
It was on 25 June, at the end of the Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the European Union, that the agreement on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the years 2023 to 2027 was adopted, three years after the publication of the Commission's proposals for a regulation on 1 June 2018. Before examining the content of this “new” CAP, It would be worthwhile to recall the changes it has undergone over the last three decades, since the major reform of 1992, and to take stock of them. A policy is considered to be alive if it can evolve and adapt to changes in its environment. From this point of view, the CAP is still very much alive.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

15426. The AUKUS agreement, what repercussions for the European Union?

Author:
Elie Perot
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 15 September, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the formation of a partnership called "AUKUS", with the aim, among other things, of providing the Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines over the next few decades. This trilateral agreement, presented by US President Joe Biden as responding to "the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term", serves the unstated but obvious purpose of counterbalancing an increasingly powerful, and sometimes aggressive, China in its neighbourhood and on the international scene. As such, the AUKUS agreement is not in itself fundamentally opposed to the objectives and interests of the European Union and, in particular, of France - the Member State that had been until now most strongly engaged in the Indo-Pacific in response to the Chinese challenge. Yet the announcement of the trilateral partnership between Canberra, Washington and London led to a particularly severe crisis with Paris, with France losing a major deal it had had with Australia since 2016 for the supply of 12 conventionally powered (dieselelectric) submarines. With the telephone exchange between Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron on 22 September, during which it was acknowledged that "the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners", it is possible that the worst of this diplomatic crisis is now over. The question now is whether this sequence, which at first sight was played out at the bilateral level between France and the three AUKUS states, could have wider and longer-term repercussions at the EU level. With this in mind, this paper first proposes to understand the new AUKUS agreement in its proper perspective, since above all it signifies a reinforcement of military industrial cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States rather than a true diplomatic revolution with regard to China. The paper then looks at the French response to this new partnership, emphasising that it was first and foremost the secrecy surrounding the formation of AUKUS, and not so much the resulting breach of the Franco-Australian submarine contract, that led to such high levels of diplomatic tension. Finally, this paper seeks to assess the extent to which France succeeded in bringing this crisis to the European level, with what consequences, but also what limitations.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia

15427. The New European Pact on Immigration and Asylum can it respond to future migration challenges?

Author:
Catherine Wihtol de Wenden
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In September 2020, the European Commission, through its Chair Ursula von der Leyen, launched the third European Pact on Immigration and Asylum, The first one dates from 2008 and the second from 2014, i.e. one every six years. This pact, like the previous ones, is not a treaty but a consensus commitment on common principles for the governance of migration and asylum in Europe. In the context in which it is set, it requires more compromise than the previous ones: the Syrian crisis of 2015 revealed the lack of solidarity between Member States regarding the reception of Syrian refugees, the lack of trust between States regarding the proposals made by the European Commission to “share the burden”, with Jean-Claude Juncker's quotas and the divide between Eastern and Western Europe between the socalled Višegrad countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia) and Western Europe, notably Germany, which received more than one million asylum seekers in 2015. It will therefore take more time for the new Pact to be adopted unanimously by the European Council and undoubtedly, more negotiations and even bargaining. In the current context, following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover, which raises concerns about the arrival of new Afghan refugees, does the new Pact offer the necessary instruments to formulate a common and effective response to future migration challenges?
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe

15428. The 23rd EU-Ukraine Summit at a time of changes

Author:
Milàn Czerny
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On August 24th, Ukraine celebrated the 30th anniversary of its independence. This offered a window of opportunity for the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to mobilise the population domestically around patriotic rhetoric and, internationally, to engage in diplomatic initiatives. However, on both fronts, the Ukrainian leader faces important challenges: mounting Covid-19 cases, intensification of Russian pressure, and Western states’ refusal to meet Kyiv’s expectations. The EU-Ukrainian summit planned on October 12th 2021 represents the occasion for both sides to reflect on these difficulties and for the EU to clarify its position vis-à-vis its eastern neighbour.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

15429. EU Space policy: an underestimated success

Author:
Massimiliano Salini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
When we talk about EU integration and successful EU policies, we are usually referring to Erasmus, the CAP, and the Single Market. Indeed, we refer too little to the EU Space policy, which is the only one that enjoys a truly European infrastructure[1]. It was in 2009, with the Treaty of Lisbon, that the space policy became one that is European since it is shared between Member States. Article 189 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) states: "To promote scientific and technical progress, industrial competitiveness and the implementation of its policies, the Union shall draw up a European space policy.” Since then, the EU flagship programmes, Galileo and Copernicus, have been launched, representing a true European success. 2021 will mark the anniversary of the adoption of the first comprehensive European Space Programme, a regulation to which I have dedicated the last three and a half years as Rapporteur for the European Parliament. However, despite the success of the European space policy, this sector, which counts for almost 10% of the EU’s GDP, is still unknown to many European citizens. An example that effectively explains this lack of knowledge is represented by the satellite navigation system, Galileo. Despite it being the most accurate navigation system in the world, used today by one billion devices at global level, most European citizens do not even know of its existence, using the name of its American competitor when they refer to it. This lack of knowledge is clearly to blame on a lack of communication on the part of the EU’s institutions, as is the case for many other European success stories, but this is not the only explanation. In the following text, I will try to explain the complexity of the space policy, but also the potential behind this underestimated success.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

15430. Energy price hikes: which European solutions?

Author:
Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
As energy prices rise around the world, against the backdrop of the post-Covid economic recovery, the 27 EU leaders discussed what Europe could do to ease the pressure on consumers at the European Council on 21-22 October. The increase in prices is due to a particular international context and is affecting all countries: China is facing electricity shortages in many provinces due to insufficient coal supply, and in the United States the price of natural gas has risen by more than 150% since the beginning of the year. However, this increase raises questions about Europe's energy strategy and its impact on climate objectives, just a few days before the opening of COP26 in Glasgow.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

15431. The Biden transition

Author:
Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
During the grotesque years of the Trump administration, and after its extraordinarily contested departure, the admittedly romantic idea of the United States has turned into a thing of the past—no longer the do-good democracy it used to be, but now a country unpredictably reactive rather than preventive, vindictive rather than proactive, and exclusive rather than inclusive. In June 2020, the nation’s pride reached a 20-year low, with only 42 percent of the respondents “extremely proud” to be American, down from 69 percent in 2003. And according to a Wall Street Journal poll, four Americans in five found the country “out of control.” By year’s end, aberrant talk that military force might be used, and martial law imposed, for a targeted “rerun” of the election was historically unreal but left many afraid about the future of the nation. When votes which have been counted no longer count, integrity is dismissed, character no longer matters, alternative facts are deemed real, and feeling right takes precedence over being right, then there is nothing left to hold on to. As Bertolt Brecht sarcastically suggested in 1953—time “to dissolve the people and elect another.” Throughout, the world has watched in dismay. For much of the previous century, America was the country much of the world came to rely on for its promises, a country that not only counted but one that could be counted on decisively. But now, the trust is gone: wrote former Secretary of State George Shultz on his one hundredth birthday, “a belief that what [our] nation … commits to do will, in fact be done” and what it “says will happen is, in fact, capable of being done.” A September 2020 survey by the Pew Research Center in 13 nations, all wealthy democracies, showed America’s reputation and over all confidence in its president in steady decline, often at their lowest points since these surveys began twenty years before—with more confidence in Xi Jinping (19 per cent) and Putin (23 per cent) than in Trump (16 percent). Such findings have been repeated since—en pire.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
United States of America

15432. Europe as a power, European sovereignty and strategic autonomy: a debate that is moving towards an assertive Europe

Author:
Reni Lefebvre
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
By defending a “geopolitical” Commission, The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the European Union had emerged from its economic and technocratic origins, that it was now ready to assume and strengthen its power, to measure itself against the new global balance of power. In this sense, she was responding to French President Emmanuel Macron who, since 2017, has been theorising about "European sovereignty" and advocating this call for power[1].
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

15433. Brexit and the Irish Question

Author:
Marie-Claire Considère-Charon
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
When thinking of the Irish question, it calls to mind the partition of the island of Ireland, ratified by the Government of Ireland Act of 23 December 1920, which was intended to satisfy the aspirations of the Protestant majority in Ulster, who were in favour of keeping the province under the authority of the Crown. Partition was plotted on the basis of a sectarian calculation to separate the six predominantly Protestant counties of Ulster[1] from the overwhelmingly Catholic Republic of Ireland. It inevitably raises the issue of the border that separates the two jurisdictions, which over the last century has been a symbol of injustice for the Catholic minority and a target for republican paramilitary groups, particularly the IRA. Thanks to the Belfast Agreement, the so-called Good Friday Agreement in 1998, which was the culmination of a long peace process, one might have assumed that the issue of the Irish border would not surface in debate again. But this did not take into account the extent of the nationalist and Europhobic current in England, which would lead to the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union by referendum on 23 June 2016.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Brexit, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe, Ireland, and Northern Ireland

15434. The Union’s external borders: a European debate revisited

Author:
Stefanie Buzmaniuk
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The management of the European Union's external borders is the subject of passionate debate in the European Parliament hemicycle and in many different media in Europe. It also features in a decision made by the European Court of Justice (CJEU) on December 17th 2020 stating that Hungary had been violating European law by turning back migrants as of 2015. Following the latest terrorist attacks on European soil, particularly in France and Austria in the autumn of 2020, the question of European cooperation in the protection of external borders has once again came to the fore. The work of Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, has moreover been the focus of a debate regarding its practices and also its role in "pushbacks", the illegal refoulement of migrants. These debates are taking place just as Frontex is in full “metamorphosis”, as suggested by its Executive Director Fabrice Leggeri, since the Agency’s budget has increased significantly and its remit progressively strengthened. In a profoundly symbolic gesture, on 11th January 2021, Frontex unveiled its first official uniform: The Agency’s personnel will now be armed, a first in the Union’s history. It therefore seems appropriate to analyse in depth the complexities involved in managing the Union's external borders and to take a detailed look at Frontex's work. What meaning do these borders, which are primarily national in nature, have for the Union as a whole? What is the importance of an Agency like Frontex? Which challenges does it face in its mission? How can trust be restored between the Agency, the European institutions, the Member States, European citizens and migrants who wish to cross the Union's borders? And, more importantly, how do we reconcile the protection of human rights with the protection of borders?
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, European Union, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe

15435. Women’s Europe

Author:
Ramona Bloj
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Equality between men and women in the European Union is provided for in Article 119 of the Treaty of Rome. While substantial progress has been made since 1957, making Europe the continent where women live best and where their numbers in the institutions are among the highest in the world, significant disparities persist between Member States. Further steps still need to be taken, especially as the pandemic has accentuated inequalities and differences, illustrating the efforts that still need to be made to achieve true equality between men and women.
Topic:
Gender Issues, European Union, Women, Institutions, COVID-19, and Equality
Political Geography:
Europe

15436. A year of electoral uncertainty Germany turns the page on Merkel

Author:
Frank Baasner and Stefan Seidendorf
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Angela Merkel, at the head of the German government since 2005, will leave her position after the federal elections on 26 September. While this departure seems to be a foregone conclusion, the election also heralds other, more structural changes, which will affect even the tectonics of the deep forces of the German political system. After the weeklong psychodrama in which the CDU-CSU was unable to reach a consensual agreement on its candidate to succeed Angela Merkel, the election on 26 September could very well represent a major political turning point. With six important regional elections in 2021[1], the changes underway have the potential to reshape the country's political landscape in a major way. The consequences for the 'stability' that has characterised the German political system since 1949, however, remain difficult to analyse.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

15437. How to avoid the repetition of history: the case of North Korea

Author:
Song Young Gil
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
To most European audiences, the issue of the North Korean nuclear programme and its intercontinental ballistic missile development is a neglected topic that is not frequently covered by the international news unless there has been a severe provocation. Most often, North Korea is seen as a country with a young, ruthless leader, and a people who show cult-like support to its regime.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, History, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

15438. Green Hydrogen in a Circular Carbon Economy: Opportunities and Limits

Author:
Zhiyuan Fan, Emeka Richard Ochu, Sarah Braverman, Yushan Lou, Griffin Smith, Amar Bhardwaj, Jack Brouwder, Colin McCormick, and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
As global warming mitigation and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emission targets as a commitment to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Low-carbon hydrogen has received renewed attention under these decarbonization frameworks as a potential low-carbon fuel and feedstock, especially for hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy-duty transportation (trucks, shipping) and heavy industries (e.g., steel, chemicals). Green hydrogen in particular, defined as hydrogen produced from water electrolysis with zero-carbon electricity, could have significant potential in helping countries transition their economies to meet climate goals. Today, green hydrogen production faces enormous challenges, including its cost and economics, infrastructure limitations, and potential increases in CO2 emissions (e.g., if produced with uncontrolled fossil power generation, which would be hydrogen but would not be green). This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, examines green hydrogen production and applications to understand the core challenges to its expansion at scale and the near-term opportunity to enable deployment. An analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with a varying range of assumptions, including both temporal (i.e., today versus the future) and geographical (e.g., the US, the EU, China, India, Japan) factors, anticipates emissions intensity and costs of producing green hydrogen. The authors evaluate these production costs for different scenarios as well as associated infrastructure requirements and highlight near-term market opportunities and policies to motivate development of the green hydrogen industry.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15439. Stronger International Safeguards as a Condition of Supply to Nuclear Energy Programs: Coming to Consensus in the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Author:
Matt Bowen
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Nations that are party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons but are not allowed nuclear weapons under the treaty (“non-nuclear-weapon states”) must have international safeguards applied to civil nuclear energy facilities if they pursue such programs. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) applies these safeguards and conducts inspections on nuclear energy programs, and determined in the 1990s that it needed additional capabilities to verify states were not engaging in secret (i.e., undeclared) nuclear activities. Subsequently, the IAEA developed a set of stronger safeguards measures, known as the Model Additional Protocol (“Additional Protocol”), which was approved in 1997. Today, most nations have an Additional Protocol in force, but a few dozen do not. The nations that do not may pose a concern if they pursue nuclear energy as a means of addressing energy and environmental challenges, such as decarbonization to meet climate goals. The greater reporting requirements and inspection measures in the Additional Protocol give the international community assurance that a nation’s declarations about its civil nuclear program are both correct and complete. The enhanced inspections in turn provide greater deterrence against states pursuing illicit nuclear activities. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)—which comprises 48 governments, including those representing the major reactor vendor countries—maintains guidelines governing the export of nuclear materials, equipment, and technology. The NSG has been considering modifying those guidelines for many years to support more universal adoption of the Additional Protocol. But adoption has been hard to come by, in part because of potential disruptions to existing supply relationships given that not all countries participating in the NSG have Additional Protocols in force and some client states of countries participating in the NSG also do not have these upgraded inspections in place. There may be room for consensus building among NSG states, however, since most support requiring an Additional Protocol as a condition of supply to further the nonproliferation regime. The remaining governments may agree if measures are proffered to address challenges that have blocked acceptance to date. This commentary discusses a history of related policy developments in the NSG, examines some of the group’s roadblocks to consensus, and suggests options for making progress on adding stronger international safeguards as a condition of supply to nuclear energy programs.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15440. Oil Intensity: The Curiously Steady Decline of Oil in GDP

Author:
Christof Ruhl and Titus Erker
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Oil is the largest primary fuel, and the trajectory of oil consumption is of great concern and consequence for economic, political, and, not least, for climate change reasons. Anticipating oil prices and production from year to year is not easy; identifying even basic ingredients of aggregate demand and supply schedules, such as price or income elasticities, is notoriously difficult. It’s an additional challenge to model the structure of a market that sometimes appears to be highly cartelized, and at other times populated by a large flock of peaceful price takers. But a remarkably steady metric—and possible tool for projecting consumption into the future—has been identified in this paper: oil intensity. Oil intensity is the volume of oil consumed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). Measured simply in barrels per dollar, it is often viewed as a broad measure of oil efficiency; it certainly demonstrates the importance of oil in a society. The efficiency of oil use has improved, in other words oil intensity has declined, over the years and decades. In 1973, for example, when oil intensity was at its zenith, the world used a little less than one barrel of oil to produce $1,000 worth of GDP (2015 prices). By 2019 (the last data set before Covid) global oil intensity was 0.43 barrel per $1,000 of global GDP—a 56% decline. Oil has become a lot less important and humanity has become more efficient in making use of it. What is worth a closer look, and is the focus of this paper reporting on oil and gas related research at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, is the pattern by which this progress has been achieved. Since 1984, oil intensity has fallen every year in an almost perfectly linear fashion: the amount of oil used per dollar of global GDP has dropped by roughly the same amount each year. Wars and revolutions, booms and busts, OPEC successes and failures, and every other monumental event in the last 35 years left their imprint on oil markets but didn’t alter oil intensity’s steady, downward crawl. This kind of regularity is very rare in any long-time trend, in economics or in energy. Although oil intensity isn’t a new topic, an attempt to explain its curiously consistent downward progress—or even any discussion about it—is hard to find in the literature. For this paper, the authors explain the trend and cross-validate its predictive potential before delving into possible reasons behind the linear decline in oil intensity. It finally extrapolates what such a continuing trend might mean for oil consumption and policies around it going forward.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and GDP
Political Geography:
Global Focus