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18052. Kosovo’s NATO future: How to Square the Circle?
- Author:
- Visar Xhambazi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines how ties between Kosovo and NATO can be strengthened. The fact that Serbia and four NATO member states do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, has hampered further integration into international organisations. The authors delineate possible political and military steps that Kosovo could take in the short and medium term, in order to prepare itself as a credible future partner. The Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue is the ultimate challenge for Kosovo in the long term and until a deal is reached, NATO integration is unlikely. Pristina has to be aware of the military-political equation, where every major military change could have political repercussions. Nonetheless, Kosovo can already commit to necessary reforms of its democratic system. Kosovo should also try to create ways of strengthening ties to the Alliance under the current circumstances, by for instance explicitly asking to establish a political dialogue. Vice versa, NATO could consider deepening cooperation within the ‘enhanced cooperation framework’. Through this interaction, the Alliance could aid Kosovo in reforming its political system, which would create a smoother path for Kosovo’s future integration aspirations.
- Topic:
- NATO, Politics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
18053. China and geopolitical considerations for investment screening in the Netherlands
- Author:
- Brigitte Dekker, Frans-Paul van der Putten, and Xiaoxue Martin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This policy brief analyses whether there are grounds for the Dutch government to conduct critical assessments of direct investments, particularly from China, from a geopolitical perspective. The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic warrant continued critical oversight of Chinese foreign investments and screening of such investments. Particularly during the current difficult times for the Dutch economy, there are new opportunities for Chinese investors as a result of increased needs for capital and/or new markets on the part of Dutch companies. This policy brief argues that from a geopolitical perspective there are two grounds for the Dutch government to screen investments: the Netherlands’ need to keep pace with changes in the geopolitical stance of the US and other Western countries towards China; and the risk that the Netherlands and the EU could lose a large part of their capacity for autonomous action in a geopolitical context. Hence there are two criteria that investment screening must fulfill. The first is that it must take account of the security and geopolitical implications of investments in high-tech companies. The second is that it must be aimed at preventing a high degree of strategic dependence on a single operator.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
18054. The Nagorno-Karabakh war: A new balance of power in the southern Caucasus
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the ambiguity around the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the war produced clear winners – Azerbaijan and Turkey – and losers – Armenia, France, the United States and Iran.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh
18055. Challenges of the Biden presidency: mending domestic and foreign rifts
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Although Joe Biden won the most votes ever in a national election, Trump expanded his base of support, receiving more votes than even Hillary Clinton did in 2016. This indicates that Biden is now facing the domestic challenge of the stark polarisation of American society as well as the challenge of restoring the international stature of the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Policy, Polarization, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
18056. The Essence of the Strategic Competition with China
- Author:
- Michael J. Mazarr
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- U.S. national security strategy and defense policy have come to focus on China as the primary emphasis in the “strategic competition” outlined by recent U.S. strategy documents. Outside government, an avalanche of recent reports and essays lays out the China challenge in sometimes fervent terms, depicting an ideologically threatening revisionist state with malign intentions. As the Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf put it recently, “Across-the-board rivalry with China is becoming an organizing principle of U.S. economic, foreign and security policies.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
18057. The Erdogan Doctrine: Turkey’s regional strategy
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s involvement in various conflicts is a reflection of the Erdogan Doctrine that was formed by internal transformations that have led to the creation of a sophisticated military industry and a prosperous economy and shifted its view of its external role as an independent regional power.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Economy, Conflict, Erdogan, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18058. Rediscovering a Strategic Purpose for NATO
- Author:
- Peter Ricketts
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- Watford is at first sight an unlikely place for a gathering of world leaders. This nondescript suburb to the north of London found itself briefly in the media spotlight one chilly afternoon in December 2019. Boris Johnson had taken time out from his election campaign just before polling day to host a meeting of NATO leaders. It was intended to be a signal of allied unity in the 70th anniversary year of the 1949 Washington Treaty.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
18059. The Evolution of Authoritarian Digital Influence: Grappling with the New Normal
- Author:
- Shanthi Kalathil
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- As the world contends with the wide-ranging ramifications of the global COVID-19 pandemic, it has been simultaneously beset by the global information crisis, which mimics the shape of the pandemic itself in its viral effects across huge segments of the global population.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Information Age, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Misinformation, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
18060. Quantum Computing’s Cyber-Threat to National Security
- Author:
- Steve Grobman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- Quantum computing has the potential to bring tremendous advancements to science, including biology, chemistry, physics, and many other disciplines. The practical application will empower a stronger defense against future pandemics similar to COVID-19, not only in the acceleration of the development of vaccines and treatments, but also in optimizing currently unsolvable logistics problems such as how to deliver and route vaccines. In computer science, the “traveling salesman problem” shows it is impractical to find the optimal shortest path to visit cities once the list grows to even a few dozen. This same challenge in delivering vaccines to rural areas during a pandemic is exactly the type of problem that quantum computing will be well suited to solve.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Quantum Computers
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
18061. No Competition Without Presence: Should the U.S. Leave Africa?
- Author:
- Katherine Zimmerman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- American blood and treasure should be prioritized to secure U.S. national interests. The United States military is not the world’s police force, and where others can share the burden, the United States should add only its unique capabilities. But defending U.S. interests extends even into faraway lands, including Africa. While Africa may never be a top national security concern for the United States, a convergence of gains by state and nonstate actors alike there affect U.S. security and economic interests globally. Yet the Pentagon’s recent effort to rebalance its resources against great power competitors—especially China and Russia—after almost two decades of counterterrorism dominance places the commitment of U.S. military resources to Africa in question. Drawing down too far militarily in Africa risks losing influence on the continent to those very same state actors, erasing hard–fought counterterrorism gains, and compromising U.S. global interests.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Counter-terrorism, Military Intervention, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North America, and United States of America
18062. China’s Strategic Objectives in a Post-COVID-19 World
- Author:
- Benjamin Tze Ern Ho
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- On 1 October 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) celebrated its 70th birthday, thus marking another important landmark of modern China under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In commemorating the event, the Chinese government held a grand military parade with some 15,000 troops, more than 160 aircraft, and 580 active weapon systems during the event, including the latest generation nuclear missile systems such as the Dongfeng-41 mobile intercontinental ballistic missile. As the South China Morning Post reported, citing one insider, “the parade, which aims to showcase President Xi’s achievement in military modernization and reforms in both hardware and software will carry a lot of political meaning.” Given ongoing social protests in Hong Kong and problems in western societies at that time (such as Brexit talks in the UK and political opposition to President Trump in the United States) the contrast could not have been more stark: A powerful and prosperous China celebrates its international success while many western societies fail and flounder amidst their own domestic problems.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Public Health, Strategic Competition, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
18063. Don’t Trust Anyone: The ABCs of Building Resilient Telecommunications Networks
- Author:
- Andy Purdy, Vladimir M. Yordanov, and Yair Kler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The January issue of Prism carried an article titled “The Worst Possible Day”1 that included a discussion of the implications for the United States of banning Chinese company Huawei from networks that the United States and its allies rely on for national security-related communications. A supporter of the ban, the author, Thomas Donahue, emphasized the critical importance of using equipment from trusted sources in U.S. telecom infrastructure and that of its allies. He argued that the consequences of not doing so could be catastrophic when the United States needs to project power, or convincingly threaten the use of force, such as during a military conflict. The article concluded that the United States needs to seriously consider how to assure the use of trusted alternatives to Huawei equipment, whether by supporting the development of a U.S.-based manufacturer or consortium, or spending tens of billions of dollars to acquire either or both the manufacturers Nokia and Ericsson, or investing significantly in the two Nordic firms.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Communications, Resilience, and Telecommunications
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
18064. Is China Expansionist?
- Author:
- Kishore Mahbubani
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- PRISM
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The Chinese soldier who pushed the Indian Colonel Santosh Babu (who tragically died) and thereby triggered the violent clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers in mid-June 2020 should be court-martialed. Both sides suffered casualties, the worst since 1975. This one push by one Chinese soldier has set back China-India relations severely, undermining all the good work that had been done over several years by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao, as well as by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping. Equally importantly, it has reinforced a growing belief, especially in the western world, that as China’s economy becomes stronger and stronger, China will abandon its “peaceful rise” and behave as a militarily expansionist power. This could well happen. It would be naive to believe otherwise. However, a deep study of Chinese history and culture would also show that the continuation of a peaceful rise is equally plausible.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Expansion
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
18065. COVID-19 and European Defense: Voices from the Capitals
- Author:
- Christian Mölling, Sophia Becker, and Torben Schütz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic poses unprecedented challenges to decisionmakers across the globe. It certainly affects European and transatlantic defense cooperation. DGAP aims to generate valuable insights into the pandemic’s effects on European defense. Therefore, we have asked leading experts from key EU and NATO partner countries for their views. Together, the contributions provide an overview that reveals trends and tendencies in European defense in a changing security environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
18066. The EU’s Strategic Compass and Its Four Baskets: Recommendations to Make the Most of It
- Author:
- Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Workshop: On September 21, 2020, DGAP and the German Ministry of Defence hosted an expert workshop on the Strategic Compass and its four baskets. Participating think-tankers from across Europe were invited to provide input and discuss their ideas in four break-out sessions. Three guiding questions structured the input and debate during the workshop and its break-out sessions: In your opinion, which concrete topics or issues should be addressed at the strategic level in the four thematic blocks? What critical points do you anticipate concerning diverging threat perceptions of the individual EU member states? In your view, what measures would be necessary for the Strategic Compass to generate real added value for an EU capable of action?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, European Union, Partnerships, Crisis Management, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18067. Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power
- Author:
- Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Daniela Schwarzer, Christian Mölling, and Sophia Becker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) convened a strategy group of experts and former government officials from the United States and Europe over the past year to discuss the crisis in the transatlantic relationship and to propose a strategy to revive and strengthen it.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Partnerships, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America
18068. Preventing Recidivism of Islamist Extremists
- Author:
- Sofia Koller
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Dresden and in a Paris suburb in October 2020 as well as the shooting in Vienna in November 2020 painfully reminded the European public of the threat that Islamist extremism and terrorism continue to pose in Europe. Especially worrysome is the fact that two of these attacks were apparently carried out by recently released terrorist offenders. In both cases, the alleged attackers had been in contact with deradicalization programs. This raises the question of how to prevent or reduce recidivism and potential violence.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, France, Syria, and Austria
18069. Connectivity in Eurasia: Geopolitical Chances for the EU
- Author:
- Jacopo Maria Pepe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As the coronavirus pandemic fuels technological and geopolitical competition among the great powers, Europe’s relations with China and Russia are facing new challenges and risks. Still, the reconfiguration of power in Eurasia also brings unexpected opportunities for European actors in the area of connectivity. To seize them, the EU needs to reconcile its aspiration to be a globally accepted “normative-regulatory” power with both its limited financial means and its more assertive attitude to geopolitics.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Connectivity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and Eurasia
18070. The EU’s Role in Addressing Lebanon’s Multiple Crises
- Author:
- Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Beirut Port blast (BPB) has revealed the fundamental failure of the Lebanese political system, but deep democratic reforms will take time and are fraught with risks. Given the US withdrawal and the extreme tensions in the region, the EU has a critical role to play in addressing the short-term humanitarian crisis, responding to the economic and financial situation, and providing a forum for civil society empowerment. If it fails to do so, the price is further geopolitical destabilization.
- Topic:
- Economics, European Union, Geopolitics, Finance, Crisis Management, and Destabilization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon
18071. The End of German Ostpolitik: What a Change in Germany’s Russia Strategy Might Look Like
- Author:
- Stefan Meister
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have hit a new low after the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continued support for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, despite massive electoral fraud in that country. A new Russia policy in Berlin will require a paradigm shift, using incentives and leverage to improve Germany’s negotiating position with Moscow. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project should be under intense scrutiny. If Moscow shows itself unwilling to cooperate, construction should be stopped.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Leadership, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Libya, Germany, and Syria
18072. City Diplomacy: The EU’s Hidden Capacity to Act
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Under the auspices of the EU, mayors are beginning to act like diplomats, brokering deals and defusing geopolitical disputes. On the one hand, such “city diplomacy” offers benefits: cities are reaching spots that the EU ordinarily cannot, flipping conventional hierarchies and making big issues seem small. On the other, it is potentially destabilizing in an era in which the exercise of power can have far-reaching consequences. Harnessing the activism of cities will be difficult, but not impossible.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Political Activism, European Union, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Belarus
18073. The Rule of Law in the EU Budget: Backing Down Is Too High a Price for the EU to Pay
- Author:
- Milan Nič, Roderick Parkes, Siawomir Sierakowski, and Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Hungary and Poland are threatening to veto the EU’s new budgetary arrangements if other governments apply the rule of law mechanism to them. It is becoming clear, however, that the new EU financial framework, and the much-heralded recovery fund, are more vital to Eastern Europe than to Europe’s South and that time is not on the side of the former. Awareness of this fact allows for a cool assessment of the pair’s bargaining positions – and of the precedent that any hasty resolution to the crisis will set.
- Topic:
- Government, Budget, European Union, and Rule of Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe
18074. Breaking the Transatlantic Data Trilemma: The EU Must Step Up Its Approach to EU-US Data Flows
- Author:
- Tyson Barker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Euro-American data relationship is deeply troubled. In fact, it now faces an impossible “trilemma” among three core policy objectives: bulk intelligence collection, open transatlantic digital commerce, and the EU’s fundamental rights. The EU needs to take action if it is to protect the economically critical transatlantic data corridor and maintain the tech leadership role Europe wants.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
18075. Upgrading Europe’s Civilian Crisis Management: A Strategic Planning Process in Ten Steps
- Author:
- Florence Schimmel and Christian Mölling
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The European Union sees civilian CSDP missions as a hallmark of its foreign policy. But these missions are implemented ad hoc, without any kind of systematic or strategic planning. As a result, the EU does not have the right capabilities to address essential challenges. Capability-based planning organized into a ten-step process offers a much better way. Existing EU initiatives can be used to kick-start a new approach.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, European Union, Crisis Management, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18076. Exploring EU Member States’ Good Practices: Incentives for More Secondment into Civilian CSDP Missions
- Author:
- Carina Böttcher
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Civilian CSDP missions rely on EU member states to staff them with skilled experts via the instrument of secondment. But the rate of seconded personnel in missions has decreased notably over the last ten years. The key to reversing this trend is addressing obstacles at the national level that hinder the recruitment and deployment of civilian experts with specialized profiles. Targeted incentives could help overcome some of these obstacles.
- Topic:
- European Union, Finance, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18077. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade
- Author:
- Martin Sieg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
- Topic:
- Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Moldova
18078. EU Trade Policy Reform: Levelling the Playing Field in a New Geo-Economic Environment
- Author:
- Claudia Schmucker and Stormy-Annika Mildner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Today, trade policy is used more and more often to achieve geopolitical goals. To defend European interests in this new geo-economic environment, the EU must recalibrate its unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral trade toolbox. While the EU needs to counter the increasingly unlevel international playing field, self-sufficiency is not a viable option. The strength of the EU depends on its openness and integration in world markets.
- Topic:
- Economics, Reform, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18079. Protests in Russia: Supporting Systemic Change Prior to 2020’s Elections
- Author:
- Marina Solntseva
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Russia postponed its national vote on constitutional changes to July 1, 2020. Due to restrictions on freedom of movement and assembly from COVID-19, mass protests are unlikely to result. Nevertheless, managing growing social discontent may well be the Kremlin’s next big challenge as it prepares for September’s regional and parliamentary elections. Given its upcoming EU presidency and Council of Europe chairmanship, Germany could make a positive difference in protecting human rights and EU values in Russia.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Elections, European Union, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
18080. Presidential Election in Belarus Tensions Are Likely to Prevail
- Author:
- András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The impending presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, is highly likely to result in the smooth victory of incumbent Alexandr Lukashenko. Despite this fact, the unprecedented – and still growing – politicization of Belarusian society constitutes a challenge to the regime that will not fade even after a clear-cut election. The resulting tensions will require more diplomatic attention from Germany and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Society, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Germany, and Belarus
18081. The US Troop Withdrawal Plan: Bogus Strategic Claims and a Warning Signal for Europe
- Author:
- Heinrich Brauß
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- President Trump wants to withdraw US troops from Germany because it spends too little on defense. US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, however, is trying to present the decision as the result of a strategic analysis. That seems grotesque. The withdrawal not only weakens NATO, but also the security of Europe and America’s ability to act. The Europeans must finally close their capability gaps, and Germany must make its armed forces fully operational earlier than planned.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
18082. Poland’s New Foreign Minister: Orbiting Closer to the Center of Power
- Author:
- Adam Traczyk
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Zbigniew Rau, who was appointed foreign minister on August 26, will help align the trajectory of Polish diplomacy with the government’s general line. His appointment fits into the logic of a larger government reshuffle, expected this fall, which aims for a greater centralization of power. His higher standing in the governing PiS party may, however, halt the gradual loss of relevance of Poland’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Belarus
18083. Britain’s Reckoning with the Future
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Brexit talks have entered extra time. If the UK is to leave the EU in an orderly manner, it needs a deal in the next four weeks. The trouble is that, as the prospect of leaving becomes more concrete, the government has finally recognized that it needs to honor the promises it has made to voters. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is struggling to reconcile his vague pledges with real world constraints – both internationally and domestically.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Boris Johnson
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
18084. Von der Leyen’s Second Chance: The “State of the Union” Address Is Her Make-Or-Break-Moment
- Author:
- Julian Rappold
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Ursula von der Leyen’s first ‘State of the Union’ speech is an opportunity for her to reassert her political agenda under the conditions of COVID-19 and to set the tone for her four remaining years in office. The summit agreement in July on a recovery strategy was perceived as a leap forward for the EU but fell short of von der Leyen’s ambitions. Fault lines between member states are deepening, and interinstitutional cooperation is on the wane. This is a make-or-break moment for the Commission President.
- Topic:
- European Union, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18085. Macron Looks East: The French president’s visit to the Baltics offers an opportunity for closer coordination with Germany on Russia policy
- Author:
- Claire Demesmay and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s European policy is to improve the position of his country in the Eastern European member states of the European Union. Although this is not a change of strategy, but only a new method, it creates favorable conditions for intensified Franco-German dialogue on European strategic issues
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, France, Germany, and Baltic States
18086. Mismatched Expectations are Straining EU-Ukraine Relations: Strengthening Mutual Trust and Credibility Should Remain Key Priority
- Author:
- Cristina Gherasimov
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Despite welcoming signs from the recent EU-Ukraine Summit, the underlying problems still loom large in this special relationship. The EU is running out of tools to incentivize more difficult reforms, and Ukraine is running out of arguments why it is unable to tackle corruption, oligarchs, and consolidate rule of law. With growing geopolitical turmoil in the region, a further strengthening of this partnership should be a priority. The risk of an increasing anti-Western backlash in Ukraine should not be underestimated.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
18087. War in NagornoKarabakh A Two-Track Strategy for the EU
- Author:
- András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- After two weeks of heavy fighting, the new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to escalate further. International actors have so far been unable to broker a ceasefire. In this case, the EU, with its limited leverage, can add most value by leading a response to the inevitable humanitarian catastrophe. EU diplomatic efforts should be led by France and Germany, coordinated with other member states, and also with Russia, to the extent necessary.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, War, European Union, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, France, Germany, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
18088. Avoiding “Cuba-sur-Calais” and Other Misadventures on Brexit Island
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- British political institutions have shown resilience during the Brexit crisis. London apparently believes it has the scope to put EU talks behind it and recalibrate its position in the world. The British government is carrying out an integrated review of defense, aid, and foreign policy and preparing its presidency of the COP26 climate talks and G7. By contrast, its neighbors are gripped by the notion of Britain’s further constitutional deterioration. Their perceptions could well become self-fulfilling.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Politics, Brexit, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
18089. The Problem with Germany’s Masterful Crisis Presidency
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- A crisis can bring out the best in Germany’s European policy, resulting in its selfless embrace of deeper integration. But sometimes crises require Germany to lead from the front rather than melt selflessly into the background. On such occasions, Berlin has seemed a little too keen to stress that it is taking action under severe constraints. While Germany’s EU presidency showcased both tendencies, its shift toward crisis-driven realism risks overshadowing its strides for a better Europe.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
18090. Bhutan’s Foresighted Resilience in the Initial Period of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Through the Lens of Gross National Happiness
- Author:
- Ritu Verma and Kuenga Wangmo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- When COVID-19 first emerged in late-2019 in Wuhan, China, without adequate containment, the virus and the economic shock waves that followed quickly spread across the world, leaving few countries unaffected by the contagion. COVID-19 quickly escalated into an ongoing and widespread global crisis, placing acute pressure on prevailing economic systems, governance structures, development institutions and health systems not experienced since the Spanish flu of 1918. In doing so, it crippled economies and ruptured trajectories of globalization and development, with a myriad of negative impacts as well as unintended positive effects such as reduced carbon emissions. As the pandemic continues to unfold, the responses of individual nation-states and sub-national regions have been both varied and divergent.
- Topic:
- Resilience, COVID-19, Global Health, and Gross National Happiness
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Bhutan
18091. Healing in the Himalayas: Robert Saunders, Surgeon, and the Embassy to Bhutan and Tibet of 1783
- Author:
- Lindsey Valancius and Trevor Lipscombe
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- In 1783, Captain Samuel Turner, surveyor Samuel Davis, and surgeon Robert Saunders journeyed from India on an embassy through Bhutan and into Tibet. Saunders, of the Bengal Medical Service, reported his medical observations in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, the leading science journal of its time. In his observations, Saunders provides glimpses into both Bhutanese and British medical practices of the late eighteenth century. Saunders’ description and observations of goiter became widely quoted, helping to forge a path to the elimination of the condition, and his explanation for the causes of snow blindness were confirmed in laboratory experiments more than 100 years later. Saunders not only sought to observe and to teach, but also to learn from the local healers he encountered. His writings show a respect for the Bhutanese and Tibetan peoples and their medical knowledge that is rare in colonial writings.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, History, Colonialism, and Medicine
- Political Geography:
- Britain, South Asia, Bhutan, and Himalayas
18092. Bhutan in SAARC and BIMSTEC
- Author:
- Chokey Namgyal Bhutia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- Bhutan has had its own share of history in consonance to the development of its foreign policy over the decades. From abandoning its self-isolation policy to developing relations with India and other countries, to supporting the formation of SAARC and further accepting the membership of BIMSTEC, all the events have steadily contributed to the growth of Bhutan’s foreign policy. SAARC was formed in 1985 for regional growth and development, and Bhutan was one of the founding members of SAARC. And since its formation, Bhutan has been actively participating in the activities and programmes of SAARC. BIMSTEC as a sub-regional organization was established in 1997 with the objective of attaining rapid socioeconomic development of the Bay of Bengal region through technical and economic cooperation in various areas among the members. It came into prominence due to the failure of SAARC and also due to the fact that it would serve as a bridge between South Asia and South East Asia. Bhutan became its member in the 2004. Thus, the paper will look into the changing dynamics of Bhutan’s foreign policy from self isolation to a country which opened up for diversification. Further, the paper will also examine Bhutan’s changing dynamics of foreign policy with the formation and Bhutan’s engagement with SAARC and BIMSTEC. The areas and potentialities these two organizations have provided for Bhutan will be highlighted upon.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Regional Integration, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Bhutan, and South East Asia
18093. Lepcha Chieftains of the 17th–18th Centuries, based on Tibetan and Bhutanese Sources
- Author:
- John Ardussi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- The ruler Gaeboo Achyok (Rgyal-po A-mchog) is undoubtedly the most highly celebrated Lepcha cultural hero. It was he who led a valiant attempt during the second half of the 17th century to assert the authority of the Lepcha people over their ancestral lands in the region of modern Kalimpong and the hill country near South-west Bhutan. Although his story has been told by previous authors, much is still based on legend and conflicting secondary sources. So, it is worth reviewing the primary original, written documents in the context of broader events of his era.
- Topic:
- Religion, History, Culture, and Historiography
- Political Geography:
- Bhutan
18094. Luminaries and Legacies of Nenyingpa in Western Bhutan
- Author:
- Dorji Penjore
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- Nenyingpa (gnas rnying pa) was one of the schools of Tibetan Buddhism to spread in proto-Bhutan or Lhomon Khazhi (lho mon kha bzhi) as Bhutan was then known. Some of the other schools were Lhapa (lha pa) of Drigung Kagyu (’bri gung bka’ brgyud), Kathogpa (ka thog pa) of Nyingma (rnying ma) school, Chakzampa (lcag zam pa) of Thangtong Gyalpo (thang stong rgyal po), Barawa (’ba’ ra ba) school of Gyaltshan Palzang (rgyal mtshan dpal bzang), and Gaden Shingtapa (dga’ ldan shing ta pa?). Several centuries later, the school, its lamas (bla ma) and their legacies are not known in Bhutan for various reasons. They were a member of the coalition of five lamas (bla ma khag lnga) who opposed Zhabdrung Ngawang Namgyal’s (1594- 1651) consolidation of political power under Drukpa Kagyu (’brug pa bka’ rgyud) school in western Bhutan.
- Topic:
- Religion and Buddhism
- Political Geography:
- Bhutan
18095. Welcoming a State That Possesses the Secret of Eternal Youth! A reflection on Bhutan’s UNO Membership
- Author:
- Sonam Kinga
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- On 21 September 1971, Bhutan became the 128th member of the United Nations Organization during its 26th General Assembly. That same day, the Kingdoms of Bahrain and Qatar were also admitted as new members. It was one of the most important days in our journey to achieve international recognition as a sovereign nation. Our membership to this international organization is an enduring legacy of the farsighted leadership and vision of our late King His Majesty Jigme Dorji Wangchuck. In this article, I will recall some important milestones on the political and diplomatic journey towards Bhutan’s UN membership.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Sovereignty, United Nations, and Nation-State
- Political Geography:
- Bhutan
18096. Evolution of the Meaning of Happiness in Modern Bhutan from 2008 to 2019
- Author:
- Michael Givel
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- Background: This paper will analyse the legal meaning of what constitutes Gross National Happiness (GNH) and happiness in Bhutan from 2008 to 2019. These legal definitions are then linked with whether they reflect balancing traditional cultural values with material needs of happiness through governmental and individual actions to become enlightened. Results: Bhutanese legislative Acts from 2008 to 2019 have adopted and updated happiness requirements in five of nine GNH material domains including health, economic development, cultural resiliency, good governance, and ecological resiliency. One other Act in the area of disaster management has implemented the constitutional happiness provision for security. These Acts and constitutional provisions balance traditional values and material needs of happiness by government requirements and individual actions to become Enlightened. Conclusion: The meaning of happiness in Bhutan while solidly grounded in foundational concepts of GNH and happiness continues to evolve as Bhutan progresses now and into the future.
- Topic:
- Governance, Culture, Economic Development, Resilience, Ecology, and Gross National Happiness
- Political Geography:
- Bhutan
18097. Descriptive Analysis of Need Assessment of the Scouting Programmes for Nazhoen and Nachung Scouts in Thimphu District
- Author:
- Lham Tshering and Sherab Jatsho
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- The scouting programme in Bhutan has been implemented as cocurricular activities in a non-formal setting to promote physical, intellectual, social, emotional and spiritual development, and to cultivate citizenship. This study is a need assessment conducted to evaluate the relevance of existing scouting programmes and recommend development of new programmes. We conducted a crosssectional study using stratified random sampling. Data was collected using a leader-assisted structured questionnaire and was analysed using SPSS (Version 23) and MS Excel. Descriptive statistics such as frequency and mean were used to describe the result. A total of 193 respondents (71 Nachung Scouts, 72 Nazhoen Scouts, 30 CBS, and 20 Scout Leaders) participated in the study. Although there was a high level of agreement on the effectiveness of existing scouting programme, the finding shows that there is a need to align programmes towards intellectual development of both Nachung and Nazhoen scouts. Based on the specific item analysis, programmes on developing good personal habits, making sense of the data, applying scout laws and promises, maintaining meaningful relationship with others, being expressive with one’s emotions, and more religious programmes are recommended for both Nachung and Nazhoen scouts. Further, we recommend programmes for Nachung Scouts on the significance and contributions made by monarchs in Bhutan.
- Topic:
- Health, Culture, and Emotions
- Political Geography:
- Bhutan
18098. Attitude of Students of Gedu College of Business Studies Towards Reading Dzongkha
- Author:
- Chencho Wangchuk
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- This study examined the attitude of Gedu College of Business Studies towards reading Dzongkha, their reading choice between Dzongkha and English, and attitudinal difference between the two groups. Descriptive analysis of the survey responses found respondents’ attitude positive towards reading Dzongkha. No statistically significant attitudinal difference was observed between the two groups, however. In contrast to their positive attitude towards reading Dzongkha, majority of the respondents’ preferred choice of reading was English owing to reasons such as access to and availability of reading materials, employability, and its widespread usage as a lingua franca. The mismatch observed between attitude and reality implies a need to increase both accessibility and availability of Dzongkha reading resources in school libraries. One way to fulfil them could be reintroduction of teaching subjects such as environmental studies and Bhutan history in Dzongkha. Enforcing a requirement to produce Dzongkha proficiency test results, like the ones in English, for any scholarship and employment purposes could possibly increase usage and assist in promoting Dzongkha as the national language. Otherwise, excessive usage of and reliance on English may result in loss of Bhutan’s ethno-linguistic and socio-cultural attributes which are symbolisms of her sovereignty.
- Topic:
- Education, Sovereignty, Culture, Language, and Students
- Political Geography:
- Bhutan
18099. US Fiscal Health: Is There Life After Debt?
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Even before the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, the United States faced the most serious fiscal threat in its modern history. The economic devastation wrought by the outbreak has made the problem far worse. Despite the very serious threat to US fiscal health, this issue does not rank among the top five for American voters in the 2020 election campaign.1 CED addresses the direct impact of the pandemic elsewhere in this series. This CED Solutions Brief will explain why even the prepandemic threat must be a public policy priority.
- Topic:
- Debt, Health, Capitalism, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
18100. K-12: COVID-19 Disruption Must Lead To Overdue Reform
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- High quality education is a critical pathway to career success and economic mobility, particularly for students from low-income backgrounds.1 An education system that invests in children beginning at the earliest ages and supports their development as both citizens and skilled workforce entrants of the future—with both in-demand cutting-edge abilities and knowledge and the tools to continue to upgrade their education and training across the course of their career—is a necessity to ensuring that US employers remain globally competitive and that all Americans share in broad-based and growing prosperity in the 21st century. Pre-pandemic, even with low measured unemployment, there were reasons to be worried that US education was failing to live up to its full potential to better serve many students. Employers remained worried about the preparedness of the workforce, with nearly 40 percent of employers reporting that they couldn’t attract workers with the skills they needed, even for entry-level jobs.2 Despite the lure of higher average wages and employment rates for college graduates, a third of recent high school graduates did not enroll in college in October of 2019, and based on past studies, only about forty percent of students who do enroll in college will complete a degree within six years.3 In 2018, nearly a quarter of full-time workers aged 25 to 64 were earning less than $15 per hour and the labor force participation of American workers between the ages of 25 and 54 remained stubbornly low.4 Policymakers, educators, and business leaders were already faced with the task of improving the status quo; as outlined in Early Education and Child Care: The Essential Sector and Developing the Future Workforce: Revitalizing Postsecondary Education and Training After COVID-19, the COVID-19 pandemic has upended the nation’s education and training at every level. Elementary and secondary education is no exception. The disruption to date has already set back student learning, widened existing educational disparities, and placed K-12 schools under enormous pressure to chart a viable path forward through the end of the pandemic even as local conditions remain subject to rapid change.
- Topic:
- Education, Reform, Economy, Economic Mobility, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America