Publication Year: within 5 Years / Topic: Governance

1. The State of EU-US Digital and Energy Cooperation

Author:: Federica Marconi, Wolfgang Münchau, and Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In a time of rapid technological advancements and changing energy paradigms, the European Union and the United States are trying to coordinate their efforts to navigate the complexities of an ever-evolving landscape. Transatlantic dialogues and cooperative endeavours are key mechanisms for mitigating tensions and fostering a common assessment of the opportunities and risks arising from these advancements. Critical in this regard are the problems of governance emanating from technological development and its consequences in the digital sphere as well as the delicate balance between security, competitiveness and environmental targets in the energy dimension.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Digital Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

2. Transatlantic Tech Bridge: Digital Infrastructure and Subsea Cables, a US Perspective

Author:: Julia Tréhu and Megan Roberts
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The importance of digital infrastructure for global communication and connectivity is only growing. Within this varied sector, subsea cables play a central role in ensuring seamless internet traffic globally. What are the US’s strategic and economic interests in digital infrastructure, particularly subsea cables? Within the context of larger economic and geopolitical competition, US policy is multifaceted, from aiming to secure the physical security of infrastructure and guarding against espionage and technology leakage, to boosting economic competitiveness and supporting domestic firms. Overall, digital infrastructure, and undersea cables in particular, are a key element of a larger US strategy of outcompeting China. Although evaluations among allies of the relative threat posed by China and Chinese-owned digital infrastructure vary, broadly shared goals of resiliency, security, and increased connectivity mean there are potential areas for deeper EU-US cooperation, including partnerships with third countries, that align with their respective strategic visions and represent a solid base for further transatlantic coordination.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Infrastructure, Governance, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

3. Chips: EU’s Ambition in a Transatlantic Technology Bridge

Author:: Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Semiconductors are vital building blocks of digital technologies. In line with its aspiration for strategic autonomy, the EU has recognised vulnerabilities in its chip supply chain, which heavily relies on foreign firms. The intricate relationship between economic security and open trade underlies the EU’s quest to bolster its domestic capacity while enhancing connections with key global partners. Despite the challenges of finding a policy balance, fostering transatlantic cooperation in the semiconductor domains remains a key ambition. To cultivate a more balanced and effective partnership with the US, the EU should capitalise on its comparative advantages to amplify and fortify its strategic positioning in the global supply chain.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

4. From Paper to Practice: Enhancing Integrated Development Plans to Improve Governance

Author:: Stuart Morrison and Pranish Desai
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (PME) systems play an important role in ensuring that South Africa’s municipalities are able to effectively fulfil their core mandate of service delivery. One central component of this system is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), a strategic framework used for several functions, including guiding key priorities and providing a roadmap for effectively delivering public services. However, even though most municipalities consistently submit IDPs, the quality of service delivery, especially amongst municipalities that have Water Services Authority responsibilities, is uneven. This raises the questions around which factors are more influential in determining effective service provision, and why they are lacking in dozens of municipalities. Using Good Governance Africa’s 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), this policy briefing provides a range of stakeholders with consolidated insights into how these issues can be addressed.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Services, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

5. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities

Author:: Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

6. Disentangling Government Responses: How Do We Know When Accountability Work Is Gaining Traction?

Author:: Jonathan Fox, Brendan Halloran, Alta Fölscher, and Rosie McGee
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Advocacy for public accountability aims to produce certain reactions from government officials or service providers. However, the reactions can be many and diverse, and it is not always clear to advocates how to interpret them and decide on next steps—whether to intensify efforts or back off; continue the same strategy or make adjustments. This paper presents a framework to help accountability advocates and practitioners interpret government reactions to their efforts and move forward appropriately. The framework arises from learning and reflection in the context of the International Budget Partnership (IBP)’s Strengthening Public Accountability with Results and Knowledge (SPARK) program. SPARK seeks to bolster the collective agency of marginalized communities and coalitions to advance democratic and equitable fiscal governance systems that channel public resources to services that address the priority needs of these historically excluded groups.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Accountability, and Financial Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Remittances and corruption perceptions in Africa

Author:: Alex Yeandle and David Doyle
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: The relationship between remittances and corruption is contested. For some authors, external income endows individuals with financial buffers, which undermine these individuals’ incentive to hold governments to account and allow rent-seeking politicians to invest fewer resources in public goods. For others, remittance payments undermine clientelist networks and increase individual-level political engagement and accountability. For others still, remittances diffuse social norms, since senders are likely to live in large cities or wealthier countries where corruption is less tolerated. However, despite being rooted in individual-level assumptions, many of the conflicting results in the extant literature have an empirical focus at the aggregate level. In this paper we offer a corrective, explaining variation in individual-level perceptions of corruption among remittance recipients through a new mechanism. With survey data from 34 African countries, we show that recipients are endowed with greater cash income, which is used to bribe officials in the hope of securing preferential access to basic services. This act of paying bribes, coupled with the fact that access does not appear to improve, fuels perceptions that the government is corrupt.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Leadership, Accountability, and Bribery
Political Geography:: Africa

8. Keeping tabs? Perceptions of relative deprivation and political trust in Africa

Author:: Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature has shown that macroeconomic performance (including levels of inequality) and evaluations shape political trust. This paper addresses two gaps in the literature by focusing on the role of individual perceptions and subjective experiences of inequality and by studying cases in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data collected from more than 40,000 respondents in 34 African countries between late 2016 and mid-2018, I use multi-level modelling to demonstrate that perceptions of relative deprivation are significantly associated with less trust in representative government institutions and, more weakly, with less trust in state institutions. The effect of perceptions of relative deprivation remains significant when controlling for macroeconomic conditions and performance evaluations. In effect size, trust in representative government institutions is at least comparable to frequently cited covariates of trust such as location, level of education, and government economic performance, suggesting that perceived relative deprivation is indeed an important covariate of such trust. Feeling relatively advantaged is also significantly associated with greater trust in representative government institutions. This may reflect strong neo-patrimonial ties between citizens and political agents. In demonstrating that individual-level economic considerations affect political trust in Africa, we challenge the conventional wisdom that only macroeconomic factors affect trust.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:: Africa

9. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America

10. External Processing: A Tool to Expand Protection or Further Restrict Territorial Asylum?

Author:: Pauline de Oliveira and Nicholas Feith Tan
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Access to territorial asylum is under significant pressure in many corners of the world. Pushbacks at borders as well as pandemic-era mobility restrictions have prevented many asylum seekers from reaching their destinations. And new and ongoing crises, including those in Afghanistan and Ukraine, have highlighted the need to offer protection closer to where vulnerable populations live, and for high-income countries to find ways to share responsibilities with the low- and middle-income countries that host the overwhelming majority of people in need of international protection. This has led to renewed interest in external processing, which involves conducting part or all of the asylum procedure outside a destination country’s territory. Notably, even as countries such as Australia and the United Kingdom have adopted policies to offshore asylum processing to countries such as Papua New Guinea and Rwanda in hopes of deterring spontaneous arrivals, there is growing interest in using external processing in ways that complement existing territorial asylum and expand, rather than restrict, protection opportunities. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—highlights the opportunities that external processing offers as well as the challenges to its implementation and the risks it could pose to territorial asylum. It explores three categories of external processing policies implemented or proposed to date: humanitarian visas, emergency evacuations, and external processing centers. The report also identifies key conditions that must be present for external processing to occur in a protection-sensitive manner.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Refugees, Asylum, Visa, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Australia, Rwanda, Papua New Guinea, and Global Focus

11. Mitigating Global Fragmentation in Digital Trade Governance: A Case Study

Author:: Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Digital trade is growing rapidly, and regulators are trying to keep up. Concerns about privacy, consumer protection and national security demand regulatory attention, but too much regulation risks stifling digital trade. Current-generation trade agreements need to find the right balance between regulatory and liberal approaches to e-commerce. This paper looks at how five leading digital economies (Canada, the European Union, Japan, Singapore and the United States) are using regional trade agreements to address concerns while enhancing trade.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. Could a Global “Wicked Problems Agency” Incentivize Data Sharing?

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Global data sharing could help solve “wicked” problems (problems such as climate change, terrorism and global poverty that no one knows how to solve without creating further problems). There is no one or best way to address wicked problems because they have many different causes and manifest in different contexts. By mixing vast troves of data, policy makers and researchers may find new insights and strategies to address these complex problems. National and international government agencies and large corporations generally control the use of such data, and the world has made little progress in encouraging cross-sectoral and international data sharing. This paper proposes a new international cloud-based organization, the "Wicked Problems Agency," to catalyze both data sharing and data analysis in the interest of mitigating wicked problems. This organization would work to prod societal entities — firms, individuals, civil society groups and governments — to share and analyze various types of data. The Wicked Problems Agency could provide a practical example of how data sharing can yield both economic and public good benefits.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Data, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. A Future Projection of Post-Covid-19 in Japan: Universal Values and International Cooperation

Author:: Yukio Sakurai
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This essay aims to clarify the most popular impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and examine a future projection of Post-COVID-19 in Japan. This is based on interdisciplinary studies, particularly the literature survey on global governance in English and Japanese. Japan has consistently lived after WWII under the principles of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Given the challenges caused by the pandemic, it is unpredictable how much conflict between multiple powers will hinder national security and economic globalization. The following five actions should be executed: Japan should participate in international research activities to envision a future society, Japan should adopt a unique future concept to address ageing populations and social security reform in their international cooperation, a review of neoliberalism, construction of a society that can respond to societal risks, and political leadership and freedom of speech to deal with serious social risks should be championed.
Topic:: Health, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

14. Pakistan Security Report 2022

Author:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: In 2022, the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan marked an increase of 27 percent from the previous year. The number of terrorist attacks in the country also continued to rise for the second consecutive year. A total of 262 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the year – including 14 suicide bombings –claimed in all 419 lives and injured another 734 people. A 25 percent increase has been recorded in fatalities in the outgoing year as compared with 2021. Pak Institute for Peace Studies revealed these statistics in its annual “Pakistan Security Report 2022”. The report further noted that the proscribed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was becoming a major irritant in Islamabad’s relations with the Taliban government in Kabul as the militant group remained one of the major actors of violence in Pakistan in the year 2022. Other critical actors of violence in 2022 were Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). Over 60 percent of total terrorist attacks recorded in Pakistan in the year were perpetrated by these three militant groups. Similarly, about 95 percent of the total recorded terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2022 concentrated in in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

15. The Politics of New Cities: Diversification of Actors and Recentralization of State Power in the Case of Diamniadio

Author:: Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The construction of new cities on the African continent is in vogue. From multifunctional urban hubs to eco-districts, the images that accompany the announcement of these projects promote an African urban future based on modernity and technology. This trend for urban planning that claims to make a clean sweep of pre-existing approaches is not unique to African countries, whose governments are inspired in particular by North African and Asian models. However, the promotion of new cities in Africa is part of the lively debate that has been going on for several years on the rapid urbanization of the continent's countries. The creation of modern cities, organized and corresponding to the urban planning standards of international metropolises, is presented as a means of avoiding haphazard, chaotic urban development. This paper offers a critical analysis of the policy of new cities based on an empirical study of the new urban pole of Diamniadio (PUD) in Senegal. Two key arguments are put forward in this paper. First, the analysis deconstructs the ex nihilo character of these urban projects and emphasizes that they are part of public policy trajectories. Due to its geo-economic and strategic position, Diamniadio has been at the heart of the Dakar region's territorial planning policies since at least the end of the 1990s. Secondly, new towns are far from being neutral and technical urban planning instruments; rather, they are political devices that convey interests and stimulate power games. By delimiting the boundaries of the PUD, which is presented as President Macky Sall's political footprint, the central government regains certain administrative powers, particularly in terms of land planning and allocation. In addition, the PUD reflects competition from foreign actors, both public and private, and the growing importance of emerging actors such as Turkey.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, State, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

16. Balancing Security and Innovation: Opposition's View on Turkey's Digital Policies

Author:: Mesut Özcan and Ussal Şahbaz
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14, 2023, are expected to be closely contested. Polls suggest that the ruling AK Party-led People’s Alliance will lose its majority in parliament, resulting in a hung lower house. This would create an opportunity for multiparty dialogue and temporary alliances on specific policy issues, leading to legislation that is the result of multiparty bargaining rather than the agenda of a dominant party. Against this backdrop, it is crucial to understand the Turkish opposition’s views on a variety of policy issues, with digital policies being a particularly underexplored one. At the intersection of political, economic, and technological issues, digital policies are regulations that have to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape of technological advances on a global scale. Turkey, as a regional power and an upper-middle-income economy, has attempted to take advantage of technological innovations to further promote economic growth and national security purposes. However, the AK Party government's efforts have been met with skepticism from opposition groups as they have fallen short of protecting individual rights and freedoms online. The study is organized into four sections, with an analysis of the political situation on the eve of the upcoming elections, a description of the technological ecosystem in Turkey, an analysis of the evolution of digital policies in Turkey under the AK Party’s successive governments, and a detailed overview of the main opposition parties' digital policy positions. This study thus provides insight into the future of digital policies in Turkey and the potential impact of the upcoming elections on this pivotal issue.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Digital Economy, Internet, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

17. A Fractured Border: Syria, Türkiye, and Cantonization

Author:: Armenak Tokmajyan and Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Several factors related to the civil war in Syria have engendered the cantonization of the country’s north. From east to west, five northern border regions are to various degrees self-governing, though four are backed by, and even dependent on, Türkiye. Ongoing indirect negotiations between Türkiye and Syria—which were previously at loggerheads—may result in an adjustment of the boundaries of these cantons, but will not alter, let alone reverse, the phenomenon of cantonization.
Topic:: Governance, Syrian War, Borders, and Cantonization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

18. Egypt: The Price of Inaction on Tax Reform

Author:: Omar Ghannam
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Like public finances elsewhere, the public finances of the Egyptian state suffer from a semi-permanent deficit. Although a limited deficit in state budgets is acceptable for most prevailing economic theories, the persistent and worsening deficit in public budgets leads to severe phases during which the economy suffers. During periods of economic prosperity, soft loans are easily accessible, which encourages states to rely on borrowing as a secondary source of financing for extended periods until it becomes a permanent source of financing. The financial market eventually puts an end to every period of easy borrowing, forcing the government to face the reality it has tried to avoid. Under such circumstances, governments have three tools at their disposal: borrowing at the highest interest rate, austerity and disabling services and social protection programs, and raising taxes and customs duties. Borrowing at the highest interest rate is every government's first choice because it does not require a reformulation of the social, economic, and political contract between the state and its citizens. But the price of such a policy is a worsened deficit. Borrowing, before or after a crisis, is not a solution but merely a postponement of the crisis, in the hope that the market recovers. When it is no longer possible to borrow amid the worsening economic conditions of a crisis, the government resorts to other tools with varying degrees of risk. Austerity is a recipe for widespread social outcry and has catastrophic effects on the poor and middle classes as well as the overall economy due to decreased purchasing power. To overcome the crisis with the least social tension, the state can also resort to taxation to generate possible revenues whether from the economy as a whole or the sectors and classes with concentrated surpluses of value. The more severe the crisis, the more the government is forced to use additional tools and impose strict measures. Debts are nothing but deferred taxes, and taxes remain key in every economic crisis. When a global economic crisis looms, questions abound. Could the crisis be approached with fewer social and economic burdens and with more room for maneuver? In this context, this paper will discuss the tax policies adopted in the past few years in Egypt and how they could have been more effective. The primary role of taxes is to meet the government's financial needs to implement its role under the social contract, whether formal or informal. Therefore, taxes are a convenient introduction to understanding the political economy of any state. Tax policies are an essential tool for achieving macroeconomic goals, and they directly reflect the political and socioeconomic considerations driving a country’s economy. This paper will address the main role of taxes in financing the requirements of the social contract from the perspective of the adequacy and effectiveness of tax collection.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Reform, Finance, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

19. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities

Author:: Nurhan Yentürk, Berkay Hacımustafa, Yakup Kadri Karabacak, Ezgi Ediboğlu Sakowsky, and Işık Baştuğ
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This study firstly aims to classify the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in the 2022 performance programs of the 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) with the highest expenditures in Turkey and their affiliated institutions (AF) (water and sewerage departments and transportation administrations) according to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other environmental goals and to examine the budget allocated to these targets. The study, also, evaluates the pros and cons of the budgets allocated by the 14 metropolitan municipalities to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other goals and develops concrete policy recommendations for areas in which budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Crisis Management, Sustainability, Public Spending, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

20. India’s Regulatory Shift: An Examination of Five Agencies of the Post- Liberalisation Era

Author:: Arkaja Singh
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This paper explores the design of Indian regulatory agencies established post-liberalisation from an administrative perspective. Regulatory agencies were set up to replace state inefficiencies, and to discipline profligate state agencies, even as much as they were a response to state-market reorganisations and the challenge of privatization. Regulation provided an opportunity for upper levels of the Indian bureaucratic state to recast their power, with the idea that it would provide a framework for economic rationality, independence and technical specialization to take centre-stage. In actual practice however, the design of each of the regulatory agencies is shaped largely by pre-existing legal frameworks and institutions, and the agencies have remained quite tied in with their counterpart departments and on retired bureaucrats. However, in spite of these limitations, these agencies have some common features imbued by legislative mandate and organisational design which are unique in the context of the Indian state. They have focus and stability, a degree of functional independence, and most importantly, a concentration of power, which enables them to think through and implement complex policy transitions from multi-year and context-specific perspectives. The paper builds on learnings from a series of conversations with regulatory agency chairpersons in order to identify what regulatory governance is, in terms of the powers and mandate of the regulatory agencies and what makes them distinctive from the rest of public administration.
Topic:: Governance, Regulation, Liberalization, and Administration
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

21. Decoding Digitalization of Urban Governance in India Policy, People and Processes of the Smart Cities Mission and National Urban Digital Mission

Author:: Khaliq Parkar and Uttara Purandare
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The presence of digital technology within urban governance in India is not new. Computerization and the use of enterprise software was encouraged in municipalities through the 1990s, followed by varied e-governance reforms in the early 2000s. These ranged from centralized policies like the National e-Governance Plan (NeGP), to projects such as the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), and city and state initiatives such as online billing and certification services for citizens and GIS platforms for administrators. The Smart Cities Mission (SCM) launched in 2015, gave a substantial and centralized push for digital interventions by choosing 100 cities to create “smart solutions” for urban governance, planning, and digital infrastructures. These were seen as “lighthouse” cities, expected to create technology-centric solutions that could be emulated by other cities in the mission.
Topic:: Governance, Urban, Smart Cities, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

22. Budget Brief: Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM)

Author:: Neeha Susan Jacob, Sidharth Santhosh, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) rural drinking water programme to provide functional tap connections to every household for drinking, cooking, and other domestic needs on a sustainable basis by 2024. It subsumes the National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP). This brief uses government data to report on: ■ GoI allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Component-wise trends; ■ Progress on coverage; and ■ Paani Samitis for Operations and Maintenance (O and M).
Topic:: Water, Governance, Budget, Rural, Sustainability, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

23. Budget Brief: Samagra Shiksha

Author:: Mridusmita Bordoloi, Avani Kapur, and Sidharth Santhosh
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Samagra Shiksha is Government of India’s (GoI’s) school education programme covering preprimary to higher-secondary levels. Launched in April 2018, the scheme is the primary vehicle to implement the provisions under the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education (RTE) Act, 2009, and the goals for school education envisaged under the National Education Policy (NEP), 2020. After a year of reopening of schools, post the COVID-19 pandemic, this brief uses government data to analyse Samagra Shiksha performance based on: ■ Trends in allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Component-wise approved budgets; ■ School enrolment trends pre and post COVID-19 pandemic; and ■ Learning outcomes and ICT infrastructure.
Topic:: Education, Governance, Budget, COVID-19, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

24. Budget Brief: National Health Mission

Author:: Avani Kapur, Ritwik Shukla, and Sharad Pandey
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: National Health Mission (NHM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) largest public health programme, which aims to achieve universal access to quality healthcare. It consists of two sub-missions: ■ National Rural Health Mission (NRHM); and ■ National Urban Health Mission (NUHM). This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ NHM finances, including proposed and approved budgets, releases, and expenditures; ■ Staff and bed availability; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:: Health, Governance, Budget, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

25. Budget Brief: Ayushman Bharat

Author:: Madhur Sharma, Rahul Das, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Ayushman Bharat, under the aegis of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), was launched by Government of India (GoI) on 23 September 2018. This brief uses government data to analyse the following components of the scheme: ■ Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY); ■ Establishment of Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs); ■ Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM); and ■ Pradhan Mantri Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PM-ABHIM).
Topic:: Health, Governance, Budget, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

26. Budget Brief: Smart Cities Mission

Author:: Anwesha Mallick, Rahul Das, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Smart Cities Mission (SCM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) urban rejuvenation mission launched on 25 June 2015. The Mission was initiated with the objective of providing core infrastructure, and decent quality of life to its citizens, along with a clean and sustainable environment. The brief uses government data to analyse the following components of the scheme: ■ Allocations and releases; ■ Utilisation of funds; ■ Project cost and completion rates; and ■ Funding through Public Private Partnership (PPP).
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Budget, Smart Cities, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

27. Budget Brief: Food Subsidy and the National Food Security Act

Author:: Jenny Susan John, Avani Kapur, and Ria Kasliwal
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Food Subsidy is provided by the Government of India (GoI) for the supply and distribution of foodgrains and other essential commodities. With the passing of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in 2013, nutritional security became a right. Under the Act, adequate quantities of quality food at affordable prices are to be provided to two-thirds of India’s population. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Allocations and releases under Food Subsidy; ■ Trends in foodgrain allocations, offtake, and distribution under NFSA and Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY); ■ Coverage under NFSA; and ■ Implementation under ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ (ONORC).
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Food Security, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

28. Budget Brief: Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0

Author:: Avani Kapur, Tanya Rana, and Ritwik Shukla
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In Financial Year (FY) 2021-22, the Government of India (GoI) restructured the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), POSHAN (Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for Holistic Nourishment) Abhiyaan, and the Scheme for Adolescent Girls (SAG) into Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0, also known as Poshan 2.0. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Required funds, allocations, and releases; ■ Governance, including human resources; ■ Changes in coverage; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Budget, Children, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

29. Budget Brief: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme

Author:: Ria Kasliwal, Mridusmita Bordoloi, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship scheme to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on the trends for: ■ Allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Paid wages and delayed compensations; and ■ Employment demanded and provided.
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Employment, Rural, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

30. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman

Author:: Avani Kapur, Sharad Pandey, and Madhur Sharma
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The National Programme of PM POSHAN, previously known as the National Scheme for Mid-Day Meals in schools (MDM), is a scheme to provide one hot cooked meal in government and government-aided schools, with an aim to improve the nutritional status of students. This brief reports on trends for PM POSHAN performance along the following parameters: ■ Past trends in allocations, releases, and utilisation; ■ Coverage and provision of meals to students; and ■ Management Information System (MIS) and Automated Monitoring System (AMS).
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Food Security, Public Spending, and Schools
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

31. The Evolution of India’s Welfare System from 2008-2023: A Lookback

Author:: Centre for Policy Research
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In the 15 years that have gone by, India has seen a significant transition in the social sector, and lived through a pandemic. At the Accountability Initiative, Centre for Policy Research, we have tracked the provision of welfare services and entitlements since 2008, in-step with the country’s evolution over these years. The year 2023 marks a moment to pause and reflect for us as we celebrate our 15th anniversary, and the Centre for Policy Research reaches its milestone of 50 years. But, aside from our legacy of evidence-based knowledge sharing, this reflection is important in one more way. In 2024, India will choose a new government. A lookback on welfare spending and outcomes is an essential first step to understanding future priorities and pathways to development. Drawing from previous Union Budgets, this Special Brief will dive into six major aspects. Firstly, reviewing the sources of funding available with the government. Secondly, analysing trends in expenditures including social sector allocations for key ministries and schemes. Thirdly, the devolution of funds to states who are primary spenders on welfare services. Fourthly, unpacking social sector schemes over the years. Fifthly, analysing select outputs and outcomes over time. Lastly, we offer our own experience by providing a snapshot of the changes in government Management Information Systems which are critical to monitoring welfare schemes, among other aspects. For the purpose of this Special Brief, we are covering the period from 2009-2023. Actual Government of India (GoI) expenditures have been used till Financial Year (FY) 2020-21. For FY 2021-22, figures are Revised Estimates (REs) and Budget Estimates (BEs) for FY 2022-23.
Topic:: History, Governance, Budget, Welfare, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

32. Cameroon: The State’s Transfer of Powers to the Regions

Author:: Pacome Vouffo
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: If there is one thing that is hardly debatable in legal science, it is the evolution of law through constitutional or legislative textual reform on a given issue. The issue of decentralisation in Cameroon is an illustration. The constitutional and legislative dynamics since independence reflect this, particularly with the inclusion of local authorities in the Constitution of 4 March 1960, the 1974 laws applicable to the Communes and their subsequent amendments , the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996 explicitly raising decentralisation to the constitutional rank , the laws of 22 July 2004 on decentralisation and today Law No. 2019/024 of 24 December 2019 to lay down the General Code of Regional and local authorities(CGCTD). This Code enshrines an evolution in decentralisation law and sets out the terms and conditions for the exercise by the State of powers transferred to regional and local authorities in general and to the Regions in particular. From a legal point of view, this reframing does not seem to have aroused the interest of the doctrine in the same way as the question of the special regime for the North-West and South-West Regions, which has been addressed . In view of its scope, however, it is easy to admit that the legislator has made a significant change. It is necessary to examine the contours of this evolution in order to untangle the threads and consequently set the markers for understanding, following an approach based solely on the Regions as a framework for analysis and not on all the Regional and Local Authorities. Indeed, the choice of the Regions as the analytical framework is not insignificant. As the first level of decentralisation in Cameroon, the Region has only recently been established since its consecration in 1996. It is the characteristic of regionalism instituted since the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996. This regionalism is legally translated by the erection in 1996 of administrative provinces into Regions, headed by a President, an indigenous personality of the Region elected by his peers , and an elected Regional Council whose political colouring prints a mixture of traditional chiefs with the other departmental Councils. Compared to the Commune, therefore, the Region is a new feature of decentralisation which finds its basis in the controversy that took place during the 1996 reform on the form of the State between the supporters of the centralised State and those of the federal State. According to the doctrine, it is a point of agreement between these two (02) trends. When we know that regionalism as a technique for organising the unitary State is an advanced version of decentralisation that could border on federalism without being one, we can only subscribe to the idea that the Region is the point of agreement that would have federated the actors of the 1996 reform. With these considerations in mind, the attention given to the Region is justified. Following this logic, it must be agreed that the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the Regions did not disappear with the advent of the CGCTD, as some authors have suggested. It was maintained, however, with a reform of the legal framework that underpins an evolution in this area. If yesterday, the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the local and regional authorities in general and to the Regions in particular was legally self-evident (I), in the current state of Cameroonian decentralisation law, it is now only a possibility (II).
Topic:: Governance, Reform, State, and Local
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

33. The Monroe Doctrine as the Will and Idea of the United States of America

Author:: Boris Martynov
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: On February 24, 2022, international relations entered a whole new stage of development affecting, albeit to varying degrees, practically all states, with no end in sight. On September 7, 2022, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world was experiencing “fundamental transformations.” Such transformations generally require several years to be completed. By the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, two highly important signs of a new situation have become absolutely clear: a crisis of the old institutions of global governance and the new rising and developing centers of power. At the same time, the opinion that the new is just the “well-forgotten old” is confirmed. This is especially true of the US and its policies.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, Governance, Law, Psychology, Identity, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America

34. ‘Ten pound touts’: post-conflict trust and the legacy of counterinsurgency in Northern Ireland

Author:: Kristin M. Bakke and Kit Rickard
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper explores the legacies of wartime rebel governance and counterinsurgency tactics. Insurgents rely on civilian support for resources, information, and cover. To defeat insurgents, the state attempts to extract information from communities where support for insurgents is highest. We argue that strong norms against civilian collaboration emerge in these areas, which may have long legacies for local community trust. To explore these legacies, we conduct a case study of post-conflict Northern Ireland. While both Republican and Loyalist paramilitary groups established wartime institutions, the counterinsurgency targeted Republican groups in urban areas with the use of informants. Drawing on secondary literature and a survey, we show that strong norms against informers—‘touts’—persist long after the end of the conflict in Republican strongholds. These areas show lower levels of local community trust than their Loyalist counterparts. The Northern Irish case demonstrates the detrimental effects of dynamics likely to shape other post-conflict states.
Topic:: Counterinsurgency, Governance, Civilians, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:: Europe and Northern Ireland

35. Energy investment in a time of inflation

Author:: Charles Lichfield and Joseph Webster
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: High rates of inflation across the world are forcing central banks to reluctantly tighten monetary policy despite accompanying recession risks. Moreover, restricted credit access could jeopardize energy investments, particularly for capital-intensive clean energy projects, potentially rendering the world more vulnerable energy to price shocks, which are a significant contributor to the current crisis. This paper briefly considers the macroeconomic drivers of inflation in late 2022, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties around energy supply, supply-chain resets, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, before examining the persistent energy underinvestment of the past decade and how this has left markets exposed to varying degrees. As such, this paper also considers how private capital can accelerate cleaner energy adoption, suited to different markets’ unique conditions and needs. Borrowing costs will rise, but this doesn’t have to bring the transition to a standstill. With the Great Moderation of low volatility, interest rates, and inflation perhaps a relic of the past, assets offering inflation protection, such as infrastructure, may become increasingly attractive to investors. There is a fear that global inflation will sharply curtail energy investment into emerging markets. The fear is justified. Higher interest rates in developed markets mean higher rates of return which will lure emerging markets investors back to the US and Europe. Still, it’s not all bad news for emerging markets. Quasi-state actors like Pension and Sovereign Welfare funds are interested in very long term, high-yield projects—two criteria to which emerging market energy infrastructure correspond. Disruptions to interest rates and inflation, triggered in part by energy underinvestment, will cause disparate impacts in different markets. Inflation is not, perhaps, everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon. Energy investment faltered from 2014 to 2020, despite low interest rates. Meanwhile, aggregate supply shocks—first due to COVID, then from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—have pressured energy production and prices, raising inflation and necessitating interest rate hikes. The consequences of persistent energy underinvestment are now becoming apparent. The need for new energy infrastructure cannot be met without private investment. This was the case when inflation was lower; it is even more important now.
Topic:: Environment, Markets, Oil, Governance, Gas, Economy, Investment, Inflation, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

36. Navigating R2P Between Norm and Practice

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The idea that states are responsible for the protection of their own people is a powerful normative and transformative one, but is far from complete or conclusive
Topic:: Security, Governance, Police, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. Political Analysis of the Purchase and technology Transfer Process for Gropen Fighters

Author:: Francisco Porto Junior and Marco Antonio Alves
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to present a descriptive study from a qualitative perspective through a bibliographical analysis, according to Coutinho (2014), which aims to discuss the political process of purchase and Technology Transfer (TT) of GRIPEN NG fighters. For this, we resort to the study of the decision-making process involving interrelationships between the main actors, consensus, interests and values. The goals is to present some reflections about the results of the political game that had taken place during the FHC, Lula and Dilma governments, to verify their relationship with the neoliberal political-social project and its actors in the international sphere. As a guide for this study, questions are presented, which must be answered throughout the text referring to political actors: Who were these actors? How did political actors act? What are the reasons for their actions?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Starr Forum: Ukraine and Russia One Year On: The Domestic Impact of the War

Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Ukraine and Russia One Year On: The Domestic Impact of the War
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

39. Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries

Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Robert E.B. Lucas is Professor of Economics at Boston University. His research has focused largely, though not exclusively, on developing countries. Most of the contributions are empirical with a few theory papers, encompassing international and internal migration, employment and human resources, income distribution and inter-generational inequality, international trade and industry, sharecropping, and the environment. His publications include seven books, the most recent of which are Migration and Development: The Role for Development Aid (2019) and Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries (2021).
Topic:: Development, Migration, Governance, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. Multipolarity After Ukraine: Old Wine in New Bottles?

Author:: Aldo Ferrari and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: One year after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has exacerbated the rift between Russia and the “collective West”. While Western governments have been steadfast in punishing Russia for the invasion, other countries around the world have been more ambiguous, at times even choosing to side with Moscow politically or economically. These dynamics have revived the idea of a shift towards multipolarity along an anti-Western trajectory. Are we really heading in that direction? Are we facing increasing fragmentation due to the war or a re-consolidation of longstanding alliances? What principles underlie the formation of these blocs? What are the consequences of these dynamics for global security and the global economy? This Report aims to shed light on these questions, while also outlining the war’s possible future implications for the Russian Federation, the “West”, and the international order.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Economy, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

41. Section 232 reloaded: the false promise of the transatlantic ‘climate club’ for steel and aluminium

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In using the removal of Section 232 ‘national security’ tariffs on steel and aluminium imports as a bargaining chip, the United States demands that the European Union engage in negotiations on “global steel and aluminium arrangements to restore market-oriented conditions and address carbon intensity”. The US demand has reportedly been inspired by a blueprint that would establish an international institutional arrangement – labelled a ‘climate club’ – which would externalise market-access restrictions afforded by US Section 232 tariffs to the customs borders of club members. While the declared objective is to incentivise non-members to adopt low-carbon steel (and aluminium) production methods the US blueprint suffers from various design flaws including inefficient incentives, WTO inconsistency and incompatibility with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed US scheme is severely compromised by the plethora of policy objectives it pursues, which go far beyond the goal of incentivising industrial decarbonisation in third countries, including secondary (ie protectionism) and tertiary (ie global power competition with China) objectives. The initial negotiation proposal submitted by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to European Commission trade negotiators incorporates many if not all the problematic elements of this blueprint, setting the US on a collision course with the negotiation proposal put forward by the European Commission. This paper concludes that the adoption of the scheme proposed by USTR would result in a step backwards for international climate and trade cooperation, whereas not adopting the EU proposal would make for a missed opportunity. Given the sharply diverging negotiation positions and associated respective domestic constraints on both sides, however, policymakers should start to engage stakeholders now to manage expectations towards a low-ambition negotiation result, if any.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Economy, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. What should be done about Google’s quasi-monopoly in search? Mandatory data sharing versus AI-driven technological competition

Author:: Bertin Martens
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The first part of this paper focuses on competition between search engines that match user queries with webpages. User welfare, as measured by click-through rates on top-ranked pages, increases when network effects attract more users and generate economies of scale in data aggregation. However, network effects trigger welfare concerns when a search engine reaches a dominant market position. The EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) imposes asymmetric data sharing obligations on very large search engines to facilitate competition from smaller competitors. We conclude from the available empirical literature on search-engine efficiency that asymmetric data sharing may increase competition but may also reduce scale and user welfare, depending on the slope of the search-data learning curve. We propose policy recommendations to reduce tension between competition and welfare, including (a) symmetric data sharing between all search engines irrespective of size, and (b) facilitate user real-time search history and profile-data portability to competing search engines. The second part of the paper focuses on the impact of recent generative AI models, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), chatbots and answer engines, on competition in search markets. LLMs are pre-trained on very large text datasets, prior to usage. They do not depend on user-driven network effects. That avoids winner-takes-all markets. However, high fixed algorithmic learning costs and input markets bottlenecks (webpage indexes, copyright-protected data and hyperscale cloud infrastructure) make entry more difficult. LLMs produce semantic responses (rather than web pages) in response to a query. That reduces cognitive processing costs for users but may also increase ex-post uncertainty about the quality of the output. User responses to this trade-off will determine the degree of substitution or complementarity between search and chatbots. We conclude that, under certain conditions, a competitive chatbot markets could crowd out a monopolistic search engine market and may make DMA-style regulatory intervention in search engines redundant.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Digital Economy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

43. What would Europeans want a European defence union to look like?

Author:: Francesco Nicoli, Brian Burgoon, and David Van der Duin
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a new momentum for EU defence integration, the political feasibility of such integration remains disputed, as it may entail both additional financial costs and a loss of sovereignty. Furthermore, design of defence integration is inherently multidimensional, differing in terms of scope and level, governance and sources of financing, among other dimensions. To determine the extent of public support for European security cooperation, we conducted the first conjoint experiment ever fielded on public support for alternative defence union designs. We carried out a pre-registered, randomised conjoint experiment on a highly representative sample of the French, German, Italian, Dutch and Spanish populations in November 2022. This multidimensional conjoint experiment allows us to determine the causal link between policy features of potential defence pacts, and public support or opposition to such policy. Our results show that policy packages receiving the most support require joint EU-level governance, joint purchases of military equipment through joint procurement, and repurposing of existing national expenditure as the preferred form of financing. All in all, our results show not only that there is considerable cross-border support for defence integration in Western Europe, but also that citizens in different Western European countries have generally aligned preferences regarding the actual design of such policy, indicating that a compromise policy is feasible and publicly supported. Furthermore, our results support ongoing research on the nature of European solidarity at times of crisis, suggesting that European citizens are willing to support the creation of joint institutions and policies to face issues of common concern, and therefore indicating that major crises open important windows of opportunity to re-shape EU-level policies and institutions.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Governance, European Union, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Europe

44. Antitrust issues raised by answer engines

Author:: Christophe Carugati
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Rapid development of generative artificial intelligence chatbots like ChatGPT is leading search engine providers to move from search to answer engines. Unlike search engines, which provide search results in the form of blue links to content creators, answer engines generate personalised answers through a conversation with end users. This revolution impacts the internet ecosystem of content creators and the digital advertising market. This paper outlines some early antitrust issues related to answer engines, from the transition from search to answer engines (sections 2 and 3) and the response competition authorities should adopt (section 4). It finds that search and answer engines complement and compete with each other. While the answer-engine market is still at an early stage of development, it already raises some competition issues in relation to data scraping, vertical integration and unfair terms and conditions. Intervention by competition authorities is more likely than not to prevent market power in this new market. In this regard, competition authorities should act to preserve dynamic competition and minimise adverse effects on content creators. Finally, the paper concludes with several research questions for future research (section 5).
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Digital Economy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

45. Pro- and anti-competitive provisions in the proposed European Union Data Act

Author:: Bertin Martens
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The proposed European Union Data Act gives users access and portability rights to the data generated by their use of tangible digital products and devices. This pro-competitive measure weakens the de-facto monopolistic control product manufacturers have over product data. However, the Data Act would also grant manufacturers a de-jure right to monopolistic pricing of data transfers to third-party service providers, restoring their control over data markets. Other anti-competitive provisions include restrictions on the use of data for competition purposes and a prohibition on transfering data to platforms identified as gatekeepers under the EU Digital Markets Act. Unnecessarily fuzzy definitions of products and data that fall under the Data Act would create uncertainty in implementation and incoherence with other EU data regulations. The Data Act should be simplified by dropping anti-competitive provisions and granting users and third-parties selected by users free access to all data generated by the use of a product or a service. This would increase competition in data-driven services and prevent users paying twice for their data. It would not disincentivise producers from investing in data-driven products and services. A further step could be the creation of a level playing field between producers and users in data-access rights. This can be achieved by introducing the principle of mutual exhaustion of data rights at point of sale. This would put all data co-generating parties in a position to generate economies of scale and scope in data aggregation, or data-driven externalities, to maximise innovation.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, European Union, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

46. Rebooting the European Union’s Net Zero Industry Act

Author:: Simone Tagliapietra, Reinhilde Veugelers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In March 2023, the European Commission published a legislative proposal for an EU response to the US Inflation Reduction Act: the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA). It is an unconvincing policy proposal, both for what is in it and for what is not in it. The proposal has five problematic aspects. First, it takes a top-down approach, in which specific technologies are selected for preferential treatment. Preferable would be a technology-neutral approach open to all current and future technologies that help tackle the net-zero challenge. Second, its blanket 40 percent self-sufficiency benchmark for EU domestic cleantech manufacturing by 2030 sends a protectionist signal, is poorly defined and does not reflect the differences in EU capacity in the cleantech sector. Third, it relies on the acceleration of permitting procedures as the main policy instrument, although this is not the main obstacle to cleantech investment in the EU. Fourth, it proposes more strategic use of public procurement. While this is an objective to be supported, the specific proposals are likely to be ineffective because of the way they are designed. Fifth and not least, the NZIA would lack a governance structure that would ensure effective implementation. In addition, the NZIA does not tackle three critical issues. It does not address investment obstacles related to failures of the single market. It does not tackle the coordination problem at the core of developing an EU green industrial policy. Finally, it does not develop an EU-level funding strategy, but rather relies on state aid, with the related risk of fragmentation. The European Parliament and EU countries in the Council of the EU should reboot the proposal and refocus its objectives, sharpening its limited instruments, improving its governance, and adding financial incentives to ensure implementation. In parallel, the EU should develop a broader green industrial policy strategy that leverages the single market in a credible manner, building a solid new governance framework and a new EU-level funding approach.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

47. The value added of central bank digital currencies: a view from the euro area

Author:: Maria Demertzis and Catarina Martins
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Different jurisdictions have set out different reasons for creating central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Some countries, particularly those with already-operational CBDCs for retail purposes, aim to to promote financial inclusion. But in countries where most citizens have access to financial services, central banks are interested in CBDCs as an aspect of the increasing digitalisation of finance. Central banks could also choose to use CBDCs to guarantee in full citizen’s holdings (currently, deposits in commercial bank are only partially guaranteed), but this would trigger major changes in the financial system in terms of the role of commercial banks in intermediation and the role of fiat money. So far, central banks have not opted to go this way. In the euro area, consumers have multiple payment options and a very efficient retail payments system. The currency enjoys high levels of trust and is not challenged by the emergence of private currencies, such as Bitcoin, or by the risk that cash, a monetary system’s anchor, will disappear. Therefore, creating a CBDC for retail purposes in the euro area offers little obvious value added, at least for the foreseeable future. However, there is a strong case for building a CBDC that banks could use for cross-border wholesale purposes (ie with other currencies). Wholesale CBDCs could revolutionise the way that cross-border, cross-currency payments are made for two reasons. Cross-border payments are currently slow and inefficient. Pilot projects have shown that wholesale payments with CBDCs can generate substantial time and cost savings. Any two central banks that have operational wholesale CBDCs could settle transactions between themselves. This would be very different from the current system, as most settlements today are done via the dollar (and then the euro) infrastructure and use correspondent banks. The euro area and the United States would have to consider carefully from a geopolitical perspective how wholesale CBDCs might affect their global economic standing. By developing a CBDC for wholesale purposes, the European Union would be able to contribute to developing the global standard.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Governance, Regulation, Central Bank, Digital Currency, and Euro
Political Geography:: Europe

48. The longer-term fiscal challenges facing the European Union

Author:: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Gregory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, and Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The pandemic and subsequent price shocks triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have increased longer-term fiscal pressures in the European Union through higher debt, higher expected real interest rates and higher public investment needs. This Policy Brief makes some simple quantitative assessments of those effects and discusses policy implications, with the following results. First, long-term increases in primary fiscal balances required to offset higher debt and higher expected real interest rates are in the range of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent of GDP for most EU countries. However, because of pre-existing differences in fiscal space, not all countries will need to undertake that adjustment, while some countries may need to adjust by substantially more. Among the 21 EU countries for which we have data to undertake this analysis, 14 will need to adjust by more than they were planning to do by 2025. Second, the required additional fiscal adjustment looks manageable, although it is substantial in some cases. To achieve medium-term debt-reducing primary balances, several EU countries will need to raise primary balances by more than 2 percent of GDP above their 2025 target, but no country will need additional fiscal adjustment of more than 3 percent of GDP. Third, market data suggests that the future path of real interest rates is very uncertain. Compared to the period immediately preceding the pandemic, longer-term expected real interest rates have increased by about 2 percentage points but remain low on average, at about 1 percent in real terms. Future developments depend on whether the structural factors that led to low interest rates in the first place persist or unwind. While interest rates might decline again, fiscal policymakers should not make plans that assume such a decline. Fourth, public spending needs for additional defence and climate spending run well above 1 percent of GDP per year. These needs do not appear to have been incorporated into current fiscal baselines, and hence will come on top of the adjustment described above. To ensure that fiscal adjustment does not defeat its purpose by slowing growth, it is essential that it is conducted gradually. In countries that require such adjustment, it should start as soon as cyclical conditions allow.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Finance, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

49. How Europe should answer the US Inflation Reduction Act

Author:: David Kleimann, Niclas Poitiers, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra, Nicolas Veron, Reinhilde Veugelers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The 2022 United States Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a significant and welcome climate law. It also includes trade-distortive subsidies, including local-content requirements prohibited under World Trade Organisation rules – the first time the US has done this and a blow to the international trading system that could trigger protectionism in other countries. The expected IRA green subsidies are of similar size to those available in the European Union, except in renewable energy production, where EU subsidies remain far larger. However, there are important qualitative differences. Some IRA subsidies discriminate against foreign producers while EU subsidies do not. IRA clean-tech subsidies are simpler and less fragmented, and they focus mainly on mass deployment of green technologies rather than innovation. The IRA will likely harm Europe through its competitiveness effect, while it will likely benefit climate transition in Europe and most of the rest of the world. However, the magnitude of both effects is very uncertain, partly because the IRA will induce substitution away from Chinese inputs. By forcing the reorganisation of supply chains, the IRA may make the EU and other economies more competitive relative to China. It may also initially slow the green transition. But in the longer run, this effect should be outweighed by the reduction in the cost of clean tech driven by the IRA. In responding to the IRA, the EU should not just seek to protect its competitiveness relative to the US but to pursue broader aims, including competitiveness in general, speedy decarbonisation and broad foreign policy and development policy goals. These aims imply that the EU should not impose local-content requirements of its own, should not loosen state-aid rules and should not mimic the IRA’s approach to manufacturing subsidies. Rather, it should focus on boosting its structural competitiveness, formulate a trade policy response that includes reform of the international subsidies regime, and develop an instrument for EU-level subsidies that focuses on early-stage development and increasing EU resilience to trade disruptions.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Inflation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

50. The Functionality of Uganda’s Single Spine Agricultural Extension System

Author:: Elijah Dickens Mushemeza
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents the findings and discussions on the functionality of the single-spine agricultural extension system in Uganda. The recommendations from the research process will potentially inform the implementation of the new national agricultural extension strategy aligned to the NDP III, the Parish Model and the national agenda of socio-economic transformation. The single spine extension system was conceptualized as a well-coordinated, harmonized, public sectorled pluralistic extension system. The aim was to eliminate the parallel institutional arrangements that emerged during the NAADS program implementation. It aims at enhancing agricultural production and productivity, value addition, food security, household income and export. In addition, it focuses on building the capacity of individual farmers and farmer institutions to have greater access to and control over structures and processes that transform their resources and assets into the outcomes that they desire to achieve their goals. The study sought to address four objectives: (i) assessing the effectiveness of coordination among key actors (including clarity of mandates) in the delivery of agricultural extension; (ii) assessing the functionality of transparency and accountability mechanisms in the single spine agricultural extension system; (iii) assessing the performance of the system in the attainment of key agricultural extension outcomes; and (iii) assessing the effects of COVID-19 on the delivery of agricultural extension services. The report gives a background to the reform and an overview of the strategy that has been used to implement it. The report gives the methodology utilised in the research process, the limitations of the study and how methodological challenges were addressed. The report brings out the findings in relation to the objectives set and in particular; on coordination dilemmas, transparency and accountability mechanisms, and performance of the system and the effects of COVID-19 on the delivery of agricultural extension service.
Topic:: Agriculture, Governance, Reform, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS