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18401. Displaced and Immiserated: The Shilluk of Upper Nile in South Sudan’s civil war, 2014–19

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The civil war that began in South Sudan in December 2013 has had dire consequences for the Shilluk people of Upper Nile, with civilians killed, villages and buildings destroyed, and humanitarian aid blocked. Although exact figures are elusive, estimates suggest that as much as 50 per cent of the Shilluk population has left the country during the current civil war—a figure that rises to 80 per cent if internally displaced people are included. Displaced and Immiserated: The Shilluk of Upper Nile in South Sudan’s civil war, 2014–19, a report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for the Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, places events in Upper Nile from 2014–19 in their historical context and analyzes the main military tactics employed by government forces in Shilluk areas.
Topic:
Civil War, Displacement, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

18402. Trade Update 2019: Transfers, Transparency, and South-east Asia Spotlight

Author:
Michael Picard, Paul Holtom, and Fiona Mangan
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Authorized small arms imports to South-east Asia were worth at least USD 443 million in 2016, a 48 per cent increase from 2015, as revealed by the Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update 2019: Transfers, Transparency, and South-east Asia Spotlight. This increase, combined with the diversification in their small arms trading partners, highlights the region’s growing significance for international small arms flows. The increased value of imports for South-east Asia mirrors the growth in the value of the global small arms trade, which was worth USD 6.5 billion in 2016—a 13 per cent increase compared to 2015 and the highest ever since the Small Arms Survey began collecting trade data in 2001. Almost 90 per cent of the USD 751 million global increase can be attributed to the world’s top tier of small arms exporters—most notably from Austria, Croatia, and Germany. The Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update features the 2019 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer—which scores the transparency of top and major exporters’ reporting on arms trade activities out of a maximum 25 points. The 2019 Barometer identifies Switzerland as the most transparent small arms exporter with 21.25 points for activities carried out in 2016, followed by Germany and the Netherlands with 19.5 points each, and Serbia and the United Kingdom with 18.25 points each. The least transparent major exporters were North Korea and Iran with zero points, Saudi Arabia with 0.5 points, and Israel with 1.25 points.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Transparency
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, and Southeast Asia

18403. U.S. Trade Policy in North America, China, and Beyond

Author:
Andy Green and Daniella Zessoules
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
In recent decades, economic, political, and technological barriers to international trade and investment have collapsed around the world. This rapid globalization of commerce has lifted many out of poverty in developing countries, but due in part to a lack of meaningful labor and environmental standards and enforcement, it has also resulted in an outsourcing of production and jobs as well as downward pressure on workers’ real wages in developed countries such as the United States.1 The key trade agreements and international institutions put in place to manage globalization, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), have failed to rebalance the rules to enable globalization to work on behalf of all workers—not just in the United States, but in Mexico, China, and more broadly. And in many cases, the trade rules have exacerbated economic pressures on many U.S. workers.2 For years, progressive voices in the United States have called for efforts to make globalization work better for working families, communities, and the environment.3 Now, the Trump administration has sought claim to the trade reform mantle. Those claims, however, should be met with skepticism. The 2017 congressional Republican tax law slashed taxes for corporations and the wealthy on the false promise of raising wages for workers.4 Corporate profits, share buybacks, and mergers and acquisitions have all boomed, but working-class wages have barely budged.5 The international provisions of the 2017 tax law further incentivize offshoring operations at the expense of domestic investments and sourcing.6 The Trump administration’s domestic economic agenda of financial deregulation, budget cuts, and attacks on workplace safety and labor rights protections will simply make matters worse for working families. The administration’s record on trade policy has been mixed and largely incoherent. The president railed against NAFTA and other trade agreements for harming workers and U.S. jobs yet renegotiated a new NAFTA deal that fails to make labor and environmental standards meaningfully enforceable.7 His administration has slapped tariffs on adversaries and allies alike with little strategy—often in the name of national security and without addressing the root causes of the problem. Threatening further tariffs, the administration now is engaged in negotiations with China over intellectual property theft, market access for foreign multinationals, and a state-led industrial strategy.8 The president announced a delay in the additional tariffs, suggesting a deal with China is coming together, but concerns have long existed that the administration may settle for high-profile spot sales of U.S. commodities while effectively letting structural impediments and China’s industrial policies continue.9 The cost of what may be President Donald Trump’s high-profile deal with China could be real concessions for the United States, including in the technology and national security space, without providing lasting, solidly enforceable benefits more broadly.10 As U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer makes his first appearance this week before the new U.S. House of Representatives, the Trump administration will finally have to answer for its approach. Here are several questions that Congress should ask in order to hold the administration accountable to the American people.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

18404. Labor Institutions and Development Under Globalization

Author:
Servaas Storm and Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Labor market regulation is a controversial area of public policy in both developed and developing countries. After decades of de-regulatory advice, international financial institutions have recently come to a less extreme position. But any concessions to labor regulation are based on concerns for social stability or for short-term support to aggregate demand, while regulation continues to be viewed as harmful to economic efficiency. In this paper we take a deeper look at the impact of labor institutions on economic development in two ways. First, we propose a macroeconomic model with balance-of-payments constraint for a “small” developing country open to trade and foreign capital. This helps us clarify the importance of a dynamic view of economic efficiency, as opposed to the static view embedded in mainstream policy advice. Secondly, we discuss the political economy of labor regulation. We argue that labor institutions promote economic development though positive effects on aggregate demand, labor productivity and technology.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Regulation, Labor Market, and Labor Cost
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18405. Publishing and Promotion in Economics: The Tyranny of the Top Five

Author:
James J. Heckman and Sidharth Moktan
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between placement of publications in Top Five (T5) journals and receipt of tenure in academic economics departments. Analyzing the job histories of tenure-track economists hired by the top 35 U.S. economics departments, we find that T5 publications have a powerful influence on tenure decisions and rates of transition to tenure. A survey of the perceptions of young economists supports the formal statistical analysis. Pursuit of T5 publications has become the obsession of the next generation of economists. However, the T5 screen is far from reliable. A substantial share of influential publications appear in non-T5 outlets. Reliance on the T5 to screen talent incentivizes careerism over creativity.
Topic:
Economics, Academia, Publishing, Career, and Academic Journals
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18406. Preventive Diplomacy: The Vanguard of Multilateralism

Author:
Arvid Hallberg
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
In 2008, the UN led by Kofi Annan quickly mediated between the parties in Kenya and developed a process for a peaceful transition of power. In 2014, the UN Special Representative, the AU and ECOWAS helped to assist the democratic transition process in Burkina Faso, culminating into peaceful, free, and fair elections the following year. From 2007, a regional Preventive Diplomacy Centre (UNRCCA) has aimed at creating favourable conditions for constructive dialogue, seeking long-term and sustainable solutions to the existing disagreements and taking into account the interests of all the states in the Central Asia region. EIP started looking specifically at preventive diplomacy in 2016 and since then much has changed. The UN and other international bodies are still the main arena but they are under threat as agreements and accords are ignored by powerful states. When “what’s in it for me” is the guiding political principle, prevention – where benefit is hard to measure – loses out in favour of harder security options. However, preventive diplomacy is still the most effective and cheapest way to stop a conflict from worsening. This is particularly important today as the already notable impact of climate change will only continue to grow in the coming decades. In this project, EIP has worked with UN-, EU- and other international special envoys, experts, and other practitioners to try to understand how preventive diplomacy works, why it is effective, and how we can do more. The results, presented in the attached booklet as the 10 Commandments of Preventive Diplomacy are not revolutionary. Instead, they underline the importance of the work diplomats do every single day and urges the international community to think about how they can adopt a preventive mindset in other activities. Over the past three years, we have learned that preventive diplomacy is not only something that happens immediately before, during, and after a crisis. Preventive Diplomacy is the quiet everyday work of thousands of diplomats all over the world. Prevention is making connections that may be useful later. Prevention is listening to voices otherwise unheard. It is raising sensitive issues that may fester and turn into violence-inducing grievances. It is understanding the people, culture, history and personalities. In short, preventive diplomacy is the vanguard of multilateralism in a conflict setting.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, and Preventive Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18407. CITIZENSHIP ON HOLD IN LIBYA

Author:
Valerie Stocker
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
Amid Libya’s ongoing crisis, unresolved disputes over citizenship haunt society and the fragile state. A significant number of people in Libya – presumably several hundred thousand – are not formally recognized as citizens, despite considering themselves as such. Commonly referred to as “persons of undetermined legal status”, the majority are first- or second-generation immigrants whose naturalisation process is on hold. A smaller amount consists of native inhabitants who have not been recognised by the state, as well as a group of people whose citizenship was revoked. Although they are registered with the authorities, their status does not guarantee them civil rights, thus curtailing their access to essential paperwork, public services and employment. The issue is of national concern and there are people affected by it across the country; however, it is of particular magnitude in the South of Libya, where it feeds instability. After being on hold for decades, the citizenship file has recently been reopened through the draft constitution, and administrative authorities have taken a renewed interest. This provides a window of opportunity to revisit the causes of disputed citizenship and promote a problem-solving approach based on consultations and social dialogue, to mitigate the risk of further destabilisation. The European Institute of Peace partnered with researcher Valerie Stocker to produce a policy paper that provides an overview of citizenship-related grievances in Libya. The paper traces the history of undetermined legal status and how citizenship disputes relate to Libya’s troubled transition. The author also examines approaches to tackle undetermined legal status, including through the proposed constitution, and offers recommendations for the challenges that lie ahead.
Topic:
Civil War, Fragile/Failed State, Citizenship, Humanitarian Intervention, Civil Rights, Legal Sector, and Destabilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

18408. REFUGEE RETURN IN SYRIA: DANGERS, SECURITY RISKS AND INFORMATION SCARCITY

Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
This report examines the broad concerns of all categories of returnees—those returning to Syria as refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), or as the result of the so-called reconciliation process— to identify the key challenges and the extent of the risks involved. The conditions to which refugees are returning, and how the mechanics of the process work, are poorly understood.
Topic:
Migration, Refugee Issues, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, and Internal Displacement
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

18409. ETHNIC EXTREMISM IN ETHIOPIA

Author:
Yonas Adeto
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
In his first year in office, Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed has executed sweeping political changes; nevertheless, Ethiopia faces daunting challenges. One the most pressing challenges is the spike in violence between the country’s many ethnic groups. In September 2018, scores were killed in Addis Ababa in clashes between Oromos and non-Oromos. Fighting has occurred along the border of the Oromia and the Somali regional states; Tigrayans have been forced out of Amhara; Amharas have been expelled from Oromia and Benishangul; and violent conflicts between the Oromo and Gedeo ethnic groups displaced approximately 970,000 people in the western Guji and Gedeo zones. Recently, federal forces were deployed as a coup attempt was thwarted in the Amhara regional state and protests over an independence referendum in Sadama turned violent. Many other incidents of ethnic violence go unreported in international media. To raise awareness about this issue, the European Institute of Peace has partnered with Dr. Yonas Adaye Adeto of the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) at Addis Ababa University. The policy paper investigates the causes and drivers of ethnic extremism, and argues that it presents a clear and present danger for the survival of Ethiopia as a nation. Dr. Yonas offers various recommendations to address extremism through comprehensive government action, which would ensure the success of the ongoing political reforms and address one of the most formidable challenges Ethiopia will face in the years to come.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Violent Extremism, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

18410. Vulnerable Asylum Seekers and Irregular Migrants in Albania: Trends, Challenges, and Policy Solutions

Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
During the last few years (2015-2018), Albania has witnessed an increased influx of irregular migrants entering the country, mostly via the southern border with Greece. The influx of irregular migrants intercepted in Albania during 2018 was around 5,730 foreign nationals, almost five times higher than in 2017. The share of women and children went up as well in 2018. Many migrants resort to smugglers and criminal networks to avoid detention while crossing borders illegally, often due to a scarcity of other viable and safe avenues for migration. Though Albania is considered a transit path in the “Western Balkan route”, the massive irregular flows of migrants raise the risk of vulnerable groups falling prey to human trafficking and sexual exploitation. The policy brief explores the current immigration trends in Albania and outlines some of the main challenges that the country faces, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups of asylum seekers and irregular migrants, such as unaccompanied and separated children, women, and minors who might potentially be victims of trafficking, exploitation, and abuse.
Topic:
Crime, Human Rights, Migration, Immigration, Immigrants, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Balkans, and Albania