Publication Year: within 5 Years and within 25 Years

16801. The Volatile Tunisia-Libya Border: Between Tunisia’s Security Policy and Libya’s Militia Factions

Author:: Hamza Meddeb
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Along the border between Tunisia and Libya, informal trade agreements led to a tight-knit border economy. But political changes in both Libya and Tunisia have fundamentally altered the economic and security landscape. The 2010–2011 uprisings disrupted a long-standing informal arrangement governing border trade between Tunisia and Libya. Over the following decade, as Libya disintegrated into mutually hostile fiefdoms, Tunisia maintained its unity, transitioned from authoritarian to democratic rule, and increasingly shunned official dealings with competing Libyan power centers. As such, grassroots cross-border agreements initiated by and between nonstate actors became the norm, albeit with the acquiescence of the Tunisian state. Yet these agreements have failed to constitute a sustainable mechanism for the trade that Tunisia’s eastern borderlands need for survival.
Topic:: Security, Economy, Borders, Trade, and Militias
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia

16802. Russia in the Asia-Pacific: Less Than Meets the Eye

Author:: Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, and Aleksandar Vladicic
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Russian foreign policy remains focused primarily on Europe. That said, Moscow’s diplomatic foray into Asia hinges on its burgeoning strategic partnership with China. Much has been written about Russia’s so-called pivot to the Asia-Pacific since its 2014 invasion of Ukraine and break with the West, but there is less to this supposed strategic shift than meets the eye. The country is and will remain a European—rather than an Asian—power by virtue of its history, strategic culture, demographics, and principal economic relationships.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Demographics, Diplomacy, History, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific

16803. Playing Politics: International Security Sector Assistance and the Lebanese Military’s Changing Role

Author:: Hijab Shah and Melissa Dalton
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Following the August Beirut port explosion, the Lebanese Armed Forces must rebuild trust with the civilian population. The LAF can serve as a critical pillar in Lebanese government efforts to strengthen national security and identity in the midst of the crisis, in light of security sector assistance from the United States and other Western partners. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and Lebanon more broadly, is one of the largest recipients of foreign assistance in the Middle East. The United States and allied governments have sought to build the capabilities and professionalism of the LAF since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, focusing primarily on counterterrorism and border security. The LAF stood in stark contrast to other Lebanese security services in their restraint vis-à-vis the civilian population during the 2019 protests. However, recent reported violent incidents against civilians, ambiguity of the role of police forces, and concerns about both recovery efforts following the August 2020 port explosion in Beirut and extended powers under the state of emergency established by the Lebanese parliament have raised international concerns about the role of Lebanon’s security services, including the LAF. The LAF has a critical role to play in stabilizing Lebanon through a multi-faceted crisis, but will need to take concrete steps to bolster its professionalism. Lebanon’s modern politics have long been defined by confessionalism, a reality that persists even as the country is engulfed in crisis. International assistance to the LAF over the last fourteen years had intended to support the LAF as a legitimate national institution transcending confessions and supporting a broader sense of Lebanese security and identity. In the midst of the ongoing crisis in Lebanon, political turmoil at the helm of the country, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there is an important opportunity for the international community to support a new path for governance in the country—as shaped and envisioned by its populace. This opportunity hinges upon leveraging existing channels of support to the LAF and building in conditionality mechanisms that hold the LAF accountable for its actions, while continuing to promote a clear articulation of priorities for the LAF and a plan to improve military effectiveness through policy and doctrine; training and equipment, education, and exercises; operations; and institutional capacity building.
Topic:: Security, Government, Politics, International Security, Military Affairs, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

16804. Etched in Stone: Russian Strategic Culture and the Future of Transatlantic Security

Author:: Eugene Rumer and Richard Sokolsky
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Russia will remain a formidable adversary for the United States, yet they have a shared interest in avoiding outright war. Time and patience will be needed to rebuild the relationship. Russian strategic culture is a product of several key factors: a long history of wars and adversarial relations with other European powers; an open geographic landscape that puts a premium on strategic depth; and an elite given to embracing a narrative of implacable Western hostility toward Russia. Historically, Europe has been by far the most important geographic theater for Russia, and it remains so to the present day. The national narrative of Vladimir Putin’s Russia emphasizes the legacy of World War II in Europe and the critical role Russia played in the defeat of Germany. Both support the Kremlin’s claim to special rights in the affairs of the continent.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Culture, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

16805. Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves

Author:: Dalia Ghanem
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and smugglers alike must navigate these gray zones in state authority. In Algeria, state formation remains an evolving process, as evidenced by the situation in the country’s northeastern border regions. With Algerian officials in these areas permitting smuggling of petrol and certain other commodities over the border with Tunisia and smugglers weeding out security threats even as they go about their illicit trade, the two ostensibly adversarial parties complement each other. This unusual relationship furthers the intrusion of the state into citizens’ livelihoods even as it manipulates state authority.
Topic:: Economy, Borders, and Smuggling
Political Geography:: Algeria, North Africa, and Tunisia

16806. Two Paths to Dominance: Military Businesses in Turkey and Egypt

Author:: Zeinab Abul-Magd, İsmet Akça, and Shana Marshall
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Egyptian and Turkish military businesses have used their institutional privileges to dominate their respective economies, but they have key differences. Turkey’s military businesses are centrally managed while Egypt’s use multiple complex conglomerates. In recent years, Turkish and Egyptian military institutions have followed divergent paths in their respective states. After many decades of full or partial control over the government, the Turkish military today is largely marginalized in politics. By contrast, after periods of exclusion from power, the Egyptian military is now in full control of the state. Despite these differences, both military institutions are powerful economic actors within their states. They have developed extensive civilian economic enterprises over the decades, dominating important sectors by capitalizing on their political influence, legal and regulatory privileges unique to their enterprises, and opportunities provided by market liberalization.
Topic:: Government, Economy, Business, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

16807. Turkish AK Parti’s Posture towards the 2003 War in Iraq The Impact of Religion amid Security Concerns

Author:: Alberto Gasparetto
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This paper focuses on Turkey’s foreign policymakers’ attitudes in the context of the 2003 US decision to wage war against Iraq. The main goal is to assess and downplay the impact of religion in relation to security-related concerns. Drawing on official speeches, interviews, declarations by key figures in the foreign policy process, the paper argues that religion is nothing more than an intervening factor in the case of Turkey’s approach to the 2003 war in Iraq. Therefore, notwithstanding the role of Islamist elites in the foreign policy decision-making of Turkey, Turkey’s foreign affairs were rather inspired by realist behaviour, driven by pragmatic considerations, aimed at pursuing rationalist goals.
Topic:: Security, Religion, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16808. Nigeria and the Great Powers: The Impacts of

Author:: Sunday Omotuyi and Modesola Vic. Omotuyi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This paper argues that two incidents in the terrorism of Boko Haram primarily attracted the attention of the international community. First, the mass abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls by the group and secondly, the pledge of allegiance by Islamist sect to the Islamic State group in the Middle East. It is against this background that this study examines the interventions of the United States, France and Russia in the counterterrorism operation in Nigeria. It contends that while their responses have only had a slight impact on the war against terrorism in the country, they have had ramifications for Nigerian foreign relations. The paper shows that the wavering attitude of the United States to the war based on human rights issues, strained US- Nigerian diplomatic relations, while France’s participation further helped to improve Franco-Nigerian relations.The involvement ofRussia, which primarily revolved around economic imperative, reignited the largely lukewarm Russo-Nigerian relations.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

16809. Rethinking Key Drivers of Turkey’s Immigration Policies in the Wake of the 2016 Turkey -European Union Immigration Deal

Author:: Israel Nyaburi Nyadera and Billy Agwanda
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Turkey’s immigration policies have experienced several changes over the last century. The 2016 agreement between Turkey and the European Union has not only had a significant impact on how Turkey and the European Union deal with asylum seekers, but also revived the debate on the EU’s externalisation of immigration issues. This study aims to examine the impact of the agreement on Turkey’s immigration policymaking process. It identifies that while the European Union may seek to externalise immigration by entering into agreements with third-party states, Turkey’s immigration policies are largely influenced by a complex balance of domestic, regional, and political interest.
Topic:: Migration, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

16810. Intellectual Capital in Islamic Banking Sector: Evidence from Turkey

Author:: Hakan Uslu
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The Islamic banking sector has experienced a rapid development both in Muslim and non-Muslim geographies. In this study, using a panel dataset spanning the time period 2005-2018 and several econometric estimations, how intellectual capital affects the financial performance of the participation banks, as Islamic banks are called in Turkey is analysed. The Value-Added Intellectual Coefficient model (VAIC), a well-known methodology, is utilised as a measure for intellectual capital performances and return on assets (ROA) and return on shareholders’ equity (ROE), in general, financial performances of the banks. The results of the analyses provide evidence for a positive and statistically significant impact of intellectual capital on financial performances of Islamic banks operating in Turkey. The results also suggest that employed capital efficiency and structural capital efficiency in the operations of Islamic banks are the two crucial factors for their profitability, while human capital efficiency has no statistical relationship with their financial performances. The current study contributes to the relevant literature since there is no study on Islamic banks of Turkey in the aspect of intellectual capital and helps Islamic bankers, such as executives, investors and shareholders, or policymakers in understanding and determining their positions regarding intellectual capital.
Topic:: Banks, Financial Institutions, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

16811. Three Ways to Explore the BRICS (Possible) Impact on the Future Global Order

Author:: Francesco Petrone
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: In a moment of great global uncertainty, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasing their standing worldwide. Despite several areas that still undermine their credibility on the world stage and which make them appear to seem irrelevant as a group in the view of some scholars, we try to analyze and evaluate if they are really accountable as a group and what impact they could have on global governance and, in general, on the global order. We depart from previous research accomplishments and, following certain classical theories of International Relations such as those of Critical and Dependence, we consider three aspects of the BRICS growth that could influence the current international framework: 1) the emergence of institutions outside the Bretton Woods system; 2) an interest in improving their “soft power” (for example, climate change may play a decisive role here); 3) the growth of their presence in different parts of the world which have so far experienced a subordinated or marginal role. The paper considers both the limitations of and the potential for BRICS countries in the reshaping of the international framework. Moreover, we provide some interpretations to the current situation, especially in light of the prospective impact that COVID-19 may have on these three fields.
Topic:: Climate Change, Emerging Markets, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, India, Asia, Brazil, South America, and South African

16812. The State at a Traffic Jam: Resource Endowment and the Challenges of National Development in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Author:: Abraham Musa Peter
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: There is a nexus between the state, resource mobilisation and the national development of any nation. The capacity of the state is measured by its ability to effectively harness and optimally utilize and allocate the commonwealth of the nation. The Nigerian state has not been able to effectively convert the abundant human and natural resources to wealth for the people. This paper therefore interrogates the capacity and willingness of the Nigerian state to effectively explore and manage the abundance resources to improve the life of the people as a way of enhancing the national development of the Nigerian state. The paper adopted qualitative technique of research with extensive use of secondary data sourced from national and international data banks, the internet, the library and national dailies. The paper followed the logic of neo-Marxism to question the nature of capital accumulation in Nigeria with its attendant (under)development implications. It therefore recommends active state engagement with the private sector to ensure effective use of the abundant resources for the overall development of other critical sectors of the Nigeria’s economy.
Topic:: Development, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and State Actors
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

16813. The National Health Insurance Bill: A Critical Review within the South African Development Context

Author:: Mfundo Mandla Masuku, Primrose Thandekile Sabela, and Nokukhanya Noqiniselo Jili
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This paper aims to provide a critical review of the proposed National Health Insurance Bill in South Africa with reference to the finance mechanisms and implications within the development context. This starts with a brief analysis of health coverage, looking at the international and local context and describes the development benefits of the NHI. The paper reviews the funding mechanisms with particular reference to the tax incidence of the different types of taxes that could be used to raise funds for the NHI. Fiscal policy implications of the proposed health care provision changes are also discussed, and the proposed NHI Fund evaluated, focusing on the impact on the achievement of a performance-based budgeting system. The paper concludes that the increase of income and consumption-based taxes could result in loss of welfare to society, as labour is discouraged from working and the poor are further disadvantaged through increases in taxes such as value- added tax.
Topic:: Development, Health, Governance, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

16814. Service Delivery with Wanton Protests in Megalopolises, South Africa

Author:: Chuks Ede and Nokukhanya Noqiniselo Jili
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: One of the bequests of the current democratic dispensation in South Africa is the choice by the citizenry to express their feelings without let or hindrance. Since 1994, the people of South Africa have recouped much power as to expressing their grievances towards their government in some of the worst viciously known manners ever recorded among black Africans within the continent-. Since recent times, South Africans have aggravated their protest revolts over what they perceive as government’s failure in the delivery of vital (basic) services, such as electricity, water and sanitation, with some other protests flanking on the provision of quality higher education at affordable cost or possibly no cost at all. With incidents of violent protests almost becoming frequent occurrences, the main aim of this article is to explore the main question that is still remaining “Do South African mega cities really stand to lose much more for not doing enough for their constituencies”? Attempts at providing answers to this question have resulted in an in-depth reviewing of literature into the antecedents of service delivery protests in South Africa. The article reveals that the cost of unaccountability by the failure of megalopolises’ authorities to render adequate municipal services to their people, outweighs by far the very cost of remedying the situational consequences accruing therefrom. Therefore, South African cosmopolitan authorities must be able to deliver based on the expectations of their masses who elect them into power; they also need to put adequate security measures in forceful place to clampdown on civilian protestors in their megalopolises.
Topic:: Government, Social Movement, Democracy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

16815. Global Health Security – COVID-19: Health Pandemic to Food Crisis?

Author:: Luis Montesclaros
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: While engaging in hoarding behaviour at the national level may seem like a strategic move in response to household hoarding amid disruptions in trade, doing so can potentially trigger a repeat of the 2007-08 food crisis.
Topic:: Security, Health, Food, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16816. Military Response to COVID-19: Advantages and Constraints

Author:: Angelo Paolo L. Trias
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Governments around the world are deploying their military forces to respond to COVID-19. Militaries can be helpful in responding to emergencies and disasters because of their organised and unique capabilities. But how can the military be useful in the fight against the coronavirus?
Topic:: Health, United Nations, Military Affairs, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16817. Global Health Security – COVID-19 and School Closures: Why Education Sector Needs Protecting

Author:: Tamara Nair
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Around 90 percent of the world’s students are currently out of school as a result of the global pandemic. How prepared are we to face the fallout of having schools closed for this long?
Topic:: Education, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Labor Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16818. Impact of COVID-19: Can Irregular Migrants Cope?

Author:: S. Nanthini
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Irregular migrants already struggling with poverty, displacement and discrimination, will be one of the hardest hit communities by the COVID-19 pandemic. Facing stigmatisation and a lack of resources, they are often overlooked in policy conversations despite their especially high vulnerability to the virus.
Topic:: Health, Labor Issues, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16819. COVID-19 Crisis: Timely Reminder for Climate Change

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The COVID-19 outbreak disrupted our daily lives and impacted national economies. Amidst the virus turmoil, our natural surroundings have benefited from the slowdown. The global community needs to make a concerted effort to rethink our approach to economic growth to avert a climate crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16820. Pandemic Response: The Women, Peace and Security Agenda

Author:: Tamara Nair
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: In this time of compounding global crisis, the world needs to come together to not only fight the pandemic but to also preserve our commitments to certain shared beliefs. One of these is the eradication of gender inequality even in the midst of this humanitarian crisis.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, Peace, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16821. In Limbo in ASEAN: Pandemic and Irregular Migration

Author:: S. Nanthini
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: COVID-19 has led to stricter border control measures the world over. This has had a particularly harsh impact on irregular migrants. As COVID-19 heightens their vulnerability, even as ASEAN meets in summit this week, this is an opportunity for ASEAN member states to support all those found within their borders.
Topic:: Migration, Borders, Pandemic, ASEAN, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

16822. Pandemic Fatigue: Re-Examining Re-Opening’s Logic

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Many economies have already started to re-open in spite of growing COVID-19 active cases, but it may be for the wrong reasons, and some may be premature. Analysing the healthcare and fiscal capacity of countries provides insights on framing the logic of re-opening.
Topic:: Health, Economy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16823. ASEAN Response: Pushing Back Vaccine Nationalism

Author:: Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: As ASEAN economic ministers meet virtually this week to deal with, among other things, the severe impacts of COVID-19, their crucial task should be to strengthen multilateral cooperation. ASEAN should rally its dialogue partners and the private sector to make vaccines available to all. Can ASEAN centrality help push back the worrying trend of vaccine nationalism?
Topic:: Vaccine, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

16824. Urgently Needed: Ecological View in Decision-making

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Increasing plastic use during the time of pandemic confirms the underlying limitation in the common human security approach to solving environmental woes. A shift to a more ecological perspective is needed if the world is to meaningfully address environmental worries and care for the planet.
Topic:: Environment, Pandemic, Human Security, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16825. HADR in Southeast Asia: Unpacking the Military’s Humanitarian Role

Author:: Angelo Paolo L. Trias and Alistair D.B. Cook
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Recent responses to natural hazards, conflicts, and the COVID-19 pandemic have illustrated a diverse and vast network of emergency and disaster responders. Militaries are vital to this network due to their unique assets and expertise, but research on how militaries connect and interact among themselves and with other actors is limited in Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Military Affairs, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

16826. Decarbonisation on a Finite Planet

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Decarbonisation is not happening in a vacuum but on a planet already replete with ecological challenges. The material-intensive requirement of low-carbon technologies means more mining, and the currently inadequate recycling capacity means more waste. Existing pressures point to an urgent need to reduce consumption to avert climate and ecological crises.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Recycling, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16827. Women, Peace and Security in ASEAN: New Issues

Author:: Noeleen Heyzer
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: With Vietnam, the ASEAN Chair, and Indonesia in the UN Security Council, the Women, Peace and Security Agenda has advanced in ASEAN. However, new issues need to be addressed in its implementation given the changing peace, security and development landscape.
Topic:: Security, Development, United Nations, Peace, UN Security Council, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

16828. China’s Emerging Disaster Diplomacy: What It Means for Southeast Asia

Author:: Lina Gong
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Chinese government formed two new bodies in 2018 that have been expected to improve China’s response to natural hazards and humanitarian emergencies in other countries. What are the implications for Southeast Asia, where the risk and threat of different types of disaster persist?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Government, Risk, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

16829. Beyond COVID-19: Global Priorities Against Future Contagion

Author:: Jose Montesclaros
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Given the credible threat of disease re-emergence and evolution, governments today should allocate resources to preventing future novel diseases, even as they face ‘wartime conditions’ in battling COVID-19.
Topic:: Government, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

16830. COVID-19: Is the Humanitarian Sector Prepared?

Author:: Lina Gong
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: An outpouring of international humanitarian aid to China has alleviated the severe shortage of key medical supplies in its fight against an outbreak of COVID-19. This highlights the role humanitarian aid plays in managing the risk of pandemics.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16831. Women in Global Governance: Never Ending Fight for Equality?

Author:: Tamara Nair
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Despite the numerous accomplishments of women in the global arena there still exists a void in global governance; this demands to be filled by greater ‘gender analysis’ and ‘gender mainstreaming’. Are these calls justified or are they merely the pursuits of particular interests?
Topic:: Governance, Women, Peace, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16832. The Burden of COVID-19: Urgent Need for Social Safety Nets

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The lockdown policies to fight COVID-19 have caused massive economic disruptions, seriously affecting poorer income groups that live on a hand-to-mouth existence. Policies to keep countries safe from pandemics must come with clear and timely social safety net programmes to protect these vulnerable groups.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Social Services, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16833. COVID-19 & Humanitarian Response: Leave No-One Behind

Author:: Alistair D.B. Cook
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: As more countries become affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to keep in mind vulnerable groups and those already affected by other humanitarian emergencies such as conflicts, disasters and climate change placing them in acutely precarious situations
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16834. Nuclear Technology & Disease Prevention: What ASEAN Can Do

Author:: Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Many countries are still struggling to expand their testing capability to diagnose more potential COVID-19 patients amidst shortage of detection kits. A nuclear-derived detection technique recently developed by the IAEA may be a promising method if more widely used by governments around the world. This highlights the peaceful application of nuclear science in public health.
Topic:: Pandemic, COVID-19, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16835. COVID-19: Its Impact on Food Sufficiency

Author:: Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: While COVID-19 has focused attention on the immediate danger of food shortages, it behooves small island states like Singapore to continue efforts to develop more stable and sustainable food sources. And to put in place public outreach programmes which inform on food and nutrition security.
Topic:: Security, Food, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Malaysia, Singapore, and Southeast Asia

16836. COVID-19: Private Sector’s Role in Times of Crisis

Author:: Christopher Chen
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: While people usually rely on the state in times of crisis, the scale and significance of the COVID-19 pandemic necessitates a more inclusive global response. Can the private sector step in to fill existing gaps in the current response?
Topic:: Crisis Management, Private Sector, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16837. Migrant Domestic Workers: Their COVID-19 Burdens

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Migrant workers, especially those doing domestic work, cannot be ignored in the fight against COVID-19. The measures taken to contain the virus spread have left them even more vulnerable. But this may be an opportunity for a fresh look at providing for their protection.
Topic:: Pandemic, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Philippines, Hong Kong, and Global Focus

16838. COVID-19 and Global Health Diplomacy: Can Asia Rise to the Challenge?

Author:: Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Averting the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic requires no less than a coordinated and effective global response with the participation of all actors at multiple levels of governance. Asia must seize the opportunity to define its role in this endeavour.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16839. The Evolution of Inequality of Opportunity in Germany: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:: Paolo Brunori and Guido Neidhofer
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We show that measures of inequality of opportunity (IOP) fully consistent with Roemer (1998)’s IOP theory can be straightforwardly estimated by adopting a machine learning approach, and apply our novel method to analyse the development of IOP in Germany during the last three decades. Hereby, we take advantage of information contained in 25 waves of the Socio-Economic Panel. Our analysis shows that in Germany IOP declined immediately after reunification, increased in the first decade of the century, and slightly declined again after 2010. Over the entire period, at the top of the distribution we always find individuals that resided in West-Germany before the fall of the Berlin Wall, whose fathers had a high occupational position, and whose mothers had a high educational degree. East-German residents in 1989, with low educated parents, persistently qualify at the bottom.
Topic:: Education, Inequality, Post Cold War, and Reunification
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

16840. The Risk of Automation in Argentina

Author:: Guillermo Falcone and Carlo Lombardo
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: In this paper we characterize workers’ vulnerability to automation in the near future in Argentina as a function of the exposure to routinization of the tasks that they perform and the potential automation of their occupation. In order to do that we combine (i) indicators of potential automatability by occupation and (ii) worker’s information on occupation and other labor variables. We find that the ongoing process of automation is likely to significantly affect the structure of employment. In particular, unskilled and semi-skilled workers are likely to bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment costs. Automation will probably be a more dangerous threat for equality than for overall employment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Employment, Inequality, Job Creation, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

16841. Jobs’ Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries

Author:: Maho Hatayama, Mariana Viollaz, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The spread of COVID-19 and implementation of “social distancing” policies around the world have raised the question of how many jobs can be done at home. This paper uses skills surveys from 53 countries at varying levels of economic development to estimate jobs’ amenability to working from home. The paper considers jobs’ characteristics and uses internet access at home as an important determinant of working from home. The findings indicate that the amenability of jobs to working from home increases with the level of economic development of the country. This is driven by jobs in poor countries being more intensive in physical/manual tasks, using less information and communications technology, and having poorer internet connectivity at home. Women, college graduates, and salaried and formal workers have jobs that are more amenable to working from home than the average worker. The opposite holds for workers in hotels and restaurants, construction, agriculture, and commerce. The paper finds that the crisis may exacerbate inequities between and within countries. It also finds that occupations explain less than half of the variability in the working-from-home indexes within countries, which highlights the importance of using individual-level data to assess jobs’ amenability to working from home.
Topic:: Employment, Pandemic, Job Creation, COVID-19, and Hospitality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16842. The Effectiveness of School Closures and Other Pre-Lockdown COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Argentina, Italy, and South Korea

Author:: Claudio Neidhofer and Guido Neidhofer
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The rapid spread of COVID-19 forced policy-makers to swiftly find solutions to reduce infection rates and keep mortality as low as possible. Empirical analyses on the effectiveness of control measures are hereby of primary importance. School closures were among the earliest measures enacted by the governments of most countries. However, while schools are now reopening in many countries, the impact of school closures on the course of the epidemic is still an open question. Adopting parametric and non-parametric synthetic control methods we estimate the effectiveness of pro-active school closures, and other early social distancing interventions, in three countries that reacted relatively early during the course of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that these interventions were effective at reducing the mortality rate of COVID-19, especially when enacted early.
Topic:: Education, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, South Korea, Argentina, South America, and Italy

16843. Distributional Effects of Reducing Energy Subsidies: Evidence from Recent Policy Reform in Argentina

Author:: Fernando Giuliano, Maria Ana Lugo, Ariel Masut, and Jorge Puig
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We analyze the distributional effects of the reduction in energy subsidies in Ar- gentina since 2016. As the policy reform also includes the introduction of a scheme to protect less well-off families (social tariff), we also review how well the targeting mechanism works. We apply traditional benefit-incidence analysis using household surveys and administrative data, focusing on residential subsidies to natural gas and electricity in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. We find that the social tariff is relatively pro-poor, with significantly higher coverage among the poorest households. There are some exclusion errors in the low-income deciles and large inclusion errors in the medium- and high-income deciles. The distributive incidence of subsidies does not appear to have changed substantially. Energy subsidies in Argentina (lower in aggregate terms) continue to be, although progressive, pro-rich. The distributional effect is explained by the fact that generalized subsidies to all categories of consumption coexist with a relatively well targeted social tariff. Re- garding energy budget shares, monthly spending on electricity has increased from 1.1 percent of total household income to 3.4 percent. Monthly spending on piped gas rose from 1.3 percent to 3.3 percent. These shares are in line with many other countries in the region. Naturally, there has been a convergence of tariffs toward service provision costs.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Reform, Subsidies, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

16844. Latin American Brotherhood? Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution

Author:: Julian Martinez-Correa, Leonardo Peñaloza Pacheco, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The effect of immigration on preferences for redistribution has been recently studied in the context of developed countries receiving migrants from poorer coun- tries with very different cultural backgrounds. In this paper we explore this issue in the context of migration across similar Latin American countries. To this aim, we exploit data at the provincial level from a large attitudinal survey (LAPOP) and match it to immigration data from different sources. We follow three approaches: first, we implement an instrumental variables approach in a cross-section of cen- suses; second we estimate fixed effects models with data from a large sample of harmonized national household surveys, and third we exploit the massive inflow of Venezuelan refugees into the border country of Colombia with an instrumental vari- ables methodology. Our results suggest a significant, negative and non-monotonic relationship between the share of immigrants at the provincial level and the sup- port for redistribution policies. This anti-redistribution effect is larger among those individuals with higher income.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Refugees, Inequality, and Redistribution
Political Geography:: Latin America

16845. Tracing the Local Impacts of Exports on Poverty and Inequality: The Case of Mexico

Author:: Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Evidence about the effect of exports on welfare at the local level is scarce. Using a unique dataset of international trade and poverty maps for almost 2,000 Mexican municipalities between 2004 and 2014, the study presented in this paper provides new evidence on the impact of a significant rise in exports on poverty and inequality at the local level. The analysis implements an instrumental variable approach that combines the initial structure of exports across municipalities with global trends in exports from developing to developed countries by sector. The results show that a 10 percent increase in the ratio of exports to workers reduces income inequality measured by the Gini coefficient by 0.17 points (using a 0 to 100 scale), but no significant effects on poverty reduction or average household incomes are identified. The lack of impacts on average incomes is driven by a rise in the supply of labor at the local level because municipalities with higher export growth experienced an increase in labor force participation and attracted more net migration, particularly of unskilled workers. Therefore, while total labor incomes grew in response to an increase in exports, average labor incomes per worker did not change. Declining remittances also blunted the effect of growing exports on household incomes.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Migration, Poverty, Inequality, and Local
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

16846. Motherhood, Labor Market Trajectories, and the Allocation of Talent: Harmonized Evidence on 29 Countries

Author:: Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Dolores de la Mata, María Edo, Yarine Fawaz, Matilde P. Machado, and Mariana Marchionno
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: In this paper we assess whether changes in labor market decisions upon motherhood lead to potential inefficient allocations of talent. Using an event study approach with retrospective data drawn from SHARE for 29 European countries we show that motherhood effects go beyond the well studied effects of labor market participation decisions: the arrival of the first child substantially affects the uptaking of alternative modes of employment, such as part-time and self-employment, that are characterized by flexible or reduced work schedules but also lower pay on average. We also show that the size of labor market responses to motherhood are larger in societies with more conservative social-norms or with weak policies regarding work-life balance. To assess the effects of motherhood over the allocation of talent, we explore how labor market responses to parenthood vary by alternative measures of talent or ability. We find that all women, even those with the highest level of ability and abler than their husbands face large motherhood effects, while men show virtually no changes in the labor market when becoming fathers. We also find that mothers who become self-employed after the birth of the first child are those that are less entrepreneurial-able according to cognitive ability and personality traits shown to impair business survival. Overall, our results suggest relevant changes in the allocation of talent caused by gender differences in nonmarket responsibilities that can have sizable impacts on aggregate market productivity.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Children, and Employment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16847. Job loss and household labor supply adjustments in developing countries: Evidence from Argentina

Author:: Matias Ciaschi
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Using longitudinal data for Argentina, this paper measures the labor supply reaction of different household members to a breadwinner’s job loss. Firm events and local unemployment shocks are exploited as exogenous sources of variation to estimate the causal effect. Our main findings show that job loss by the male household head has a significant and substantial effect on the labor supply response of other household members, both at the extensive and intensive margin. While we do not find any effect on daughters, female partners and sons increase their labor market participation. The latter are also more likely to drop out from the educational system. These results are stronger among economically vulnerable households.
Topic:: Development, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16848. Pay for Performance for Prenatal Care and Newborn Health: Evidence from a Developing Country

Author:: Maria Laura Alzúa and Noemi Katzkowicz
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Empirical literature analyzing the effect of pay-for-performance programs (P4P) for healthcare providers on maternal care and newborn health outcomes is scarce. In 2008, Uruguay’s Ministry of Public Health implemented a P4P called Metas Asistenciales (Healthcare Goals), a country-wide program that grants healthcare providers an economic incentive for complying with certain maternal and newborn healthcare goals. Health organizations use these funds to provide maternal and child health services. Using administrative records and a difference-in-difference methodology, we evaluate the effect of the Metas Asistenciales program on maternal and newborn health outcomes. We find that in the institutions affected by the program, 10 percentage points more women received an adequate number of prenatal checkups and pregnancy detection in the first trimester improved by 5 percentage points. We also found better results among newborns for indicators related to birth weight, premature births, and stillbirths. In sum, the program had a positive, significant impact on the rate of pregnant women’s utilization of health services and on newborn health outcomes. This study thus provides evidence supporting the idea that economic incentives are a promising tool for incentivizing healthcare providers to achieve better health services in developing countries.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Children, and Birthing
Political Geography:: South America and Uruguay

16849. COVID-19 Lockdown and Domestic Violence: Evidence from Internet-Search Behavior in 11 Countries

Author:: Inés Berniell and Giovanni Facchini
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domestic violence in 11 countries with different ex-ante incidence of domestic violence (DV) and lockdown intensity. We use a novel measure of DV incidents that allows us to make cross-country com- parisons: a Google search intensity index of DV-related topics. Our difference-in- difference estimates show an increase in DV search intensity after lockdown (31%), with larger effects as more people stayed at home (measured with Google Mobil- ity Data). The peak of the increase in DV appears, on average, 7 weeks after the introduction of the lockdown. While we observe that the positive impacts on DV is a widespread phenomenon, the effect in developed countries is more than twice as strong as in Latin American countries. We show that the difference in impact correlates with the
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Domestic Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16850. Youth in MENA: Findings from the Fifth Wave of the Arab Barometer

Author:: Amaney Jamal, Michael Robbins, and Salma Al-Shami
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Youth economic frustration across MENA is increasing ▶ Youth have little trust in governments, which are widely viewed as being corrupt, leading to a potential crisis of legitimacy in the region ▶ However, views of youth differ relatively little from older generations in this regard ▶ Youth are more likely to want to emigrate and to participate in informal politics ▶ Arab publics, including youth, generally affirm women’s equal rights but less accepting of their equal roles in society
Topic:: Corruption, Human Rights, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Women, Democracy, and Youth
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS