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16702. Qatari Cash for Hamas Will Backfire on Israel
- Author:
- Udi Levi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- What Happens When Hezbollah Seeks a Similar Arrangement of Quiet for Cash?
- Topic:
- Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Qatar
16703. Israel’s New Diplomatic Moment
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trump’s peace plan calls attention to the fact that the Arab bloc that championed the Palestinian cause has collapsed.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Leadership, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
16704. How Iran funds Palestinian Islamic Jihad
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- PIJ is an important part of the Iranian strategy for fighting Israel. The regime in Tehran makes use of charities and other civilian organizations, such as money changers, to transfer funds to its allies in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
16705. After Soleimani: Iran Resumes Proxy Warfare Against the US
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is reverting to attacks on the US through non-Iranian organizations under its control.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Proxy War, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
16706. Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
16707. Do Syria-Turkey clashes presage a wider confrontation in the Middle East?
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Conflict, Peace, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
16708. The “Deal of the Century” and Israel’s European Challenge
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Europe ought to press the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel for a demilitarized state on a territory similar in size to the pre-1967 West Bank and Gaza Strip and whose economy will be rebuilt and boosted by a $50 billion investment.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
16709. 15 reasons to embrace the Trump Plan
- Author:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should act to implement the Trump Plan and reap its early rewards, because it transforms the Mideast peace paradigm. Most importantly, the plan reflects, and can serve as a platform for, Israeli consensus on the Palestinian issue.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
16710. Breaking the ‘everybody knows paradigm’
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Even if the Palestinians reject Trump’s peace plan, it still serves their long-term interests. False, undeliverable expectations – based on the assumption that “everybody knows” what Israel will be forced to concede – eventually need to give way to a more realistic paradigm, which in turn may lead to a better life for both sides.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
16711. The Struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel’s Role following the Berlin Summit on Libya
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Everything short of a military confrontation needs to be done, though, to deter Erdogan from establishing a barrier diagonally across the Mediterranean, barring Cyprus, Egypt and Israel from connecting their gas infrastructure to Greece and hence to Europe.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Gas, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean
16712. Jordan will not impede the US peace plan
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is convenient for Amman to have Israel retain security control over the Jordan Valley. And this is a rare opportunity to advance and potentially realize Israel’s security needs for a cemented border in the east with the support of the world’s top superpower.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
16713. Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
16714. Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
16715. No to the planned Palestinian elections
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Jerusalem is not the place to hold elections for a foreign entity.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Elections, Conflict, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem
16716. Putin’s surprise visit to Syria
- Author:
- Micky Aharonson and Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
16717. Could Congress’ latest Syria sanctions bill backfire?
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Legislation, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
16718. More pressure on Iran still needed
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trump has made it clear that attacks on American personnel are going to elicit a military reaction.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
16719. The Precarious Lull in Northeast Syria
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- New Year, Same Chaos in Syria.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, Ceasefire, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16720. Iran lacks good options
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
16721. The Reemergence of Gray-Zone Warfare in Modern Conflicts
- Author:
- Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s Struggle against Hamas’s Indirect Approach
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Gray Zone
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
16722. Israel Shouldn’t Draw Fixed Lines Between Itself and China
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Jewish state’s relationship with the U.S. is stronger for resting on an informal basis; replacing it with a formal alliance would do no good and only anger the world’s other major power.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Peace, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America
16723. Understanding the new pact on migration and asylum
- Author:
- Ramona Bloj and Stefanie Buzmaniuk
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- In 2019, 22.9 million people or 4.7% of the total population of the European Union were non-European citizens. According to the European Commission, in the same year, the Member States granted 3 million first time resident permits to third country citizens. Whilst the number of asylum requests totalled 1.28 million in 2015, it decreased to 689,000 in 2019. Across the Union, figures vary from one country to another: if we look at the number of migrants in 2019, Germany took in the most with 13.4 million, i.e. 15.7% of its population, followed by France (8.3 million), Spain (6.5 million) and Italy (6.2 million). In the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Poland, according to the OECD was the leading destination of temporary working migrants, ahead of the USA; in 2018 Poland delivered more than a million new permits to extra-European workers.
- Topic:
- Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16724. European Democracy, a fundamental system to be protected
- Author:
- Eric Maurice
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Democracy is the political and moral foundation of the European Union and its Member States. Its smooth functioning endeavours to pacify political alternation, reduce social tensions and eliminate judicial arbitrariness, thus guaranteeing civil peace and the prosperity of European societies. Moreover, in a world where the markers of liberal democracy resulting from the European Enlightenment are receding, the value of democracy is a tool of the Union's power and influence. In the absence of a functioning democracy the Union and its Member States would lose their capacity to act and defend their interests, either via the upkeep of rules-based multilateralism or the projection of their values and standards that are emulated by others.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16725. Economic recovery and climate: for Europe and the world, two battles to fight at once
- Author:
- Clémence Pèlegrin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- The global economic and sanitary situation has accelerated many States’ commitments to fight climate change and, more specifically, the inclusion of climate issues in national recovery plans. Almost a year after the announcement of the Green Deal by the European Commission, and several weeks after ambitious climate announcements made by China and Japan, Europe will be playing an important round in its commitments at the forthcoming European Council on 10th and 11th December.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16726. Iran’s Involvement in Syria during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Continuity or Change?
- Author:
- Hamidreza Azizi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Iran is trying to maintain its political and military position in Syria until it recovers from the impact of COVID-19. Protection of its interests via securing Damascus, driving out the military forces of the United States, and maintaining control of the areas that allow access to Lebanon (and the Eastern Mediterranean) are still priorities. The deteriorating economic situation and the slump in oil prices will most likely relax Iran’s control over its proxies in Syria, such as the Fatemiyoun and local tribes existing in Deir ez-Zor. The consolidation of the Turkish military presence in Idlib and the northeast will only make Iran more determined to expel American forces after the COVID-19 crisis subsides. The real challenge for Iran is losing the competition with Russia over influence in the security and economic sectors in Syria.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
16727. The Impact of COVID-19 on Russia’s Middle East and Syria Policies
- Author:
- Leonid Isaev and Andrey Sakharov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- May 3 rd, Russia’s COVID-19 infection rate resembled that of the United Kingdom. This situation has the potential to significantly impact the country’s financial situation, influencing the country’s foreign policy toward the Middle East. By the beginning of the lock-down period, the most optimistic forecasts for 2020 predicted a fall in the Russian economy by 4-6% of GDP.1 However, after four weeks of confinement, a decline of 6-8% was considered to be the most positive scenario, provided that it is possible to avoid a second wave for the epidemic in the autumn as predicted by the Higher School of Economics forecast. The Russian situation is complicated by the fact that the outbreak of COVID-19 coincided with the dramatic decline in oil and gas prices. The federal budget’s breakeven price for 2020 was set at $42.4 per barrel.3 However, prices by the end of March and the beginning of April went significantly lower. This means that Russia may not be able to match the predicted government spending for 2020. Moreover, its leadership may not be able to spend money as generously to advance projects serving the country’s foreign policy. Moscow, short on revenue, will unlikely take foreign policy and domestic political adventures. Foreign policy projects, primarily those that require significant budgetary expenditures in the Middle East and specifically in Syria, will be frozen. A passive Russian international engagement is expected to dominate until the end of 2020. The exception to this policy will be when a response is unavoidable. Domestic policy is likely to be just as reactive. The baseline will likely be to maintain the current state of affairs and absorb any shocks to stability given the scarcity of financial resources.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
16728. The UAE’s Role in Syria’s Stability
- Author:
- Najla al-Qasemi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has pursued a careful policy towards the Syrian conflict based on keeping Syrian state institutions intact and simultaneously supporting Syrian people’s aspirations. In order to maintain this balance, Abu Dhabi has relied in part on a legacy of pragmatic relations with Damascus since the 1990s. This legacy allowed Abu Dhabi to resume its diplomatic ties with Damascus with the aim of drawing it closer to its Arab neighbours when Iran’s influence over the country’s decision-making increased. In order to keep its engagement constructive, the UAE has utilised humanitarian aid since 2011 to support the Syrian people in refugee camps outside the country and within Syria especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The UAE however faces challenges from regional and international actors involved in the Syrian conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Hegemony, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and UAE
16729. Is the “New Normal” in Idlib Different from the “Old Normal”?: How the COVID-19 Pandemic has Affected Idlib
- Author:
- Serhat Erkman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16730. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Military Dynamics in Northern Syria
- Author:
- Nikolay Surkov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16731. COVID-19 in Turkish Controlled Areas and Idlib
- Author:
- Başak Yavçan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The safe zones in the northern part of Syria have been established following three operations in the region, namely: the Euphrates Shield in 2016, the Olive Branch in 2018, and the Peace Spring in 2019. Before the outbreak of pandemic, the healthcare capacity was semisufficient with urgent cases being treated in Turkey and with frequent hospital transfers being conducted. In terms of livelihood opportunities, humanitarian aid was predominantly channelled through Turkey with limited involvement of Western and international organisations. Trade with the outside world was limited due to the sanctions imposed on Syria. The infrastructural investment in the region was predominantly made by the Turkish state and NGOs in the form of renovations and building of schools, hospitals, as well as water and energy supply. As of May 28th, 2020, there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in both regions yet living conditions have deteriorated due to the conditions in Turkey, Syria and rest of the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
16732. White-Crusade: How to Prevent Right-Wing Extremists from Exploiting the Internet
- Author:
- Christina Schori Liang and Matthew John Cross
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Right-wing extremists (RWEs) are using the current protests over police brutality in the United States as a cover to commit terroristic acts and to grow their numbers. They present a significant danger to public safety and security and are a growing threat in the West. Despite this, the rise of right-wing extremism (a homogenized term for white ethnonationalists, alt-rights, white supremacist groups, male supremacist groups, and right-wing anti-government extremists) has not been afforded the priority and attention it justly deserves. There are three reasons for this. First, the global narrative maintains that terrorism rests almost exclusively in the hands of a balaclava-clad Salafi-jihadist holding a Kalashnikov. Second, Western right-wing media has largely pushed back against covering the rise of right-wing extremism and the media as a whole has failed to contextualize the systematic threat RWEs present. Third, the global pandemic has forced governments to focus their attention on maintaining public health and socioeconomic order and have consequently failed to see how RWEs are subversively using the pandemic to support and expand their own agenda.
- Topic:
- Internet, Radical Right, Digitization, and Political Extremism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16733. Regulating and Limiting the Proliferation of Armed Drones: Norms and Challenges
- Author:
- Cholpon Orozobekova and Marc Finaud
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- As a consequence of the attractiveness of the use of drones – for obvious reasons of cost and pilot safety – the international market in armed drones is booming, creating risks of widespread proliferation, especially to non-state actors or states known for their lack of respect for the laws of warfare.This paper analyses these proliferation risks and formulates recommendations on how to mitigate them. Starting in the late 20th century, the growth of guided-missile technologyled the international community to draw up political and legal rules in order to control the export of such sensitive equipment – subsequently including UAVs – to countries where the risk of uncontrolled and/or illicit proliferation and use is the highest. The first such attempt was the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which was established in 1987 to harmonise policies for the export of missiles and related technology and has been gradually extended to cover UAVs. The second regime was a voluntary transparency measure, the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA), established in 1991, to which UN member states are encouraged to report their exports and imports of conventional arms, including UAVs. The third was the Wassenaar Arrangement, launched in 1996 as a multilateral export control regime for conventional and dual-use goods and technologies, to which UAVs were added. The most recent initiative is the ATT, which entered into force in 2014 and regulates transfers of conventional arms, including certain categories of UAVs. As we will see in section 2, however, these regimes are far from being universal and all have limitations that make it difficult to impose constraints on UAV exports.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, and Drones
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16734. Resilience and Agility: Managing and Mitigating Evolving Threats in a Hyperconnected World
- Author:
- Hasssan Abul-Enein
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Over the years a wide range of different evolving threats have been drastic in their impact and magnitude. This impact is likely to be amplified in the future, especially as global risks such as deglobalisation, fractured social contracts, digital divides and technological gaps increase.39 Also, the rollout of stimulus packages and soaring debt that is estimated to top US$10 trillion by the end of 2020 is likely to make the global economic landscape more fragile.40 The COVID-19 outbreak has perhaps resulted in the single largest socio- economic experiment in the history of humankind. As an evolving threat, what started as a health pandemic in China has snowballed, causing disruptions around the globe and impacting every single industry and individual. Countless lessons are being extrapolated from the outbreak. At the core of these lessons is the importance of resilience and agility in any response to an evolving threat. If governments, organisations, businesses, and society are to manage and mitigate threats of this kind that may occur in the future, there is a need to consolidate and further invest in the four pillars highlighted in this study: strategic management and foresight; human capital, diversity and leadership; collaboration and partnerships; and technology and innovation. Together, these pillars make for organisational resilience and agility. This in turn helps organisations to overcome ambiguity and uncertainty by embedding adaptability and flexibility across their structures. This will allow organisations and vested stakeholders to better map out ecosystem changes that threaten their interests and growth. It will also allow them to respond proactively, timeously and effectively by implementing whole- of-enterprise risk management functions and developing solid decision- making structures and frameworks. Investments in these pillars will also provide opportunities for shared value creation and avoid duplication and wastage. This will help drive growth and mitigate the impact of evolving threats by generating innovative solutions faster and more dynamically, and will accelerate the focus on solving problems rather than fighting them. It will also help to develop human capital, ensure accessibility to a variety of solutions to a wide range of problems, and increase integration, which in turn will create safety buffers and support shock containment.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16735. The Future of Mediation in the Post-COVID World
- Author:
- Itonde Kakoma and Edward Marques
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the state of the world today in two words “uncertainty” and “instability”.28 These two terms will remain the defining characteristics of the future. If we want international peacemaking structures to remain relevant then the evolving nature of conflict must be taken more seriously. Doing so will require addressing fundamental questions including but not limited to: what does an effective mandate look like in the current geopolitical climate? What might de-escalation mechanisms or a ceasefire look like for hybrid or cyber conflicts? How can virtual safe space for dialogue be secured? How do we ensure that peace agreements hold, when the parties to the conflict are so many, and so far away from the conflict itself? How can we advance international cooperation on peacemaking in the absence of an effective UN Security Council? Given the increasingly blurred lines between peace and conflict, the basic concepts of global peace and security and thus the future of peace mediation will need to be reconceived.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16736. The impact of regulatory frameworks on the global digital communications industry
- Author:
- Robert Dewar and Ellie Templeton
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- A range of regulatory frameworks have been imposed by national governments and intergovernmental actors to control the operations of the digital communications sector. Whilst exercising their rights to manage entities operating within their jurisdictions, the imposition of economic restrictions has a significant impact beyond limiting commercial operations. This policy brief will analyse the impact of regulatory frameworks on the digital communications industry by exploring three high-profile programmes of restrictions imposed by three very different international actors
- Topic:
- Communications, Governance, Regulation, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16737. Partial Local Autonomy in Southern Syria: Conditions, Durability, and Replicability
- Author:
- Alexander Decina
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In July 2018, Daraa Governorate, once home to an array of rebel groups and local governance councils, supported by significant international assistance, was partially recaptured by the Government of Syria (GoS). Through a combination of force and negotiations, the GoS has restored control over key routes and infrastructure, although a number of former rebel groups have retained limited autonomy in their own communities. Since then, poor security and economic conditions, inadequate services, and competition between and among GoS security actors and former opposition factions have challenged the status quo in Daraa, but, by and large, the situation has held. These negotiated outcomes – and the GoS’s willingness to accept them – were predicated upon multiple factors, including the relatively moderate nature of southern opposition factions, Russian and Israeli military postures, and the historical connections of the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) in Daraa. While lessons learned from the south are important, the particular conditions and outcomes i
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Local, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16738. The Battle for the Tribes in Northeast Syria
- Author:
- Nicholas Heras
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Northeast Syria (NES) is fragmented under the control of different powers that are all seeking to gain the support of the local Arab tribes. Those seeking to upset the status quo include the Assad regime and its allies (Russia and Iran), Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies, and ISIS —all seeking disruption with different motivations, yet working side by side. Those seeking to maintain the status quo include the U.S.-led Coalition, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Often, earning the support and alliance of the tribes is a transactional process whereby the tribes seek direct financial support and community investment, employment opportunities, military support, and autonomy to run their own affairs. Currently, most local tribal groups are calculating that a tenuous U.S.-protected order in northeast Syria provides better security and provisions than the alternatives from the Assad regime and its allies, or by Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies. However, ISIS remains a threat to all the powers involved in northeast Syria, and it is the major spoiler seeking to create the conditions for a return to the old order which was established under ISIS’s territorial Caliphate from 2014-2019.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
16739. Syrian National Army: Russian View
- Author:
- Kirill Semenov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In autumn 2017, the Council of the Syrian Islamic Scholars devised an initiative to unite all groups of the Syrian moderate opposition into the Syrian National Army (SNA), which was supposed to become FSA 2.0. At that time, 80% of the Syrian opposition factions, including Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, as well as the majority of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) armed groups were prepared to join the SNA. It was the first time since 2012 that the FSA had managed to bring all opposition forces under its banner, and the creation of a unified military network with a common structure and command gained a new impetus. However, the SNA project was five years too late and, by the time the rebels began to merge into this new unified army, the Syrian opposition had already lost the war.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16740. Russia and Issues of HTS and Tanzim Hurras ad-Din
- Author:
- Anton Mardasov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Moderate Syrian opposition includes some natives from Russia’s North Caucasus, although they are a minority. Caucasian and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) natives were, in large part, members of the Islamic State (IS) or in some way linked to the forces formally led by Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN) and later by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Those who went to Syria and Iraq to fight can be roughly divided into two generations. The first one includes Caucasus Emirate members who responded to the call of Salafi sheikhs from Arab-Islamic centres. Natives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, and Turkmenistan (migrant workers, for the most part) were mainly recruited for jihad in Russia or within various diasporas across Europe.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
16741. ‘Assuring our Common Future’, a guide to parliamentary action in support of disarmament for security and sustainable development
- Author:
- Alyn Ware
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- This guide to parliamentary action in support of disarmament for security and sustainable development has been produced by the partner organisations in order to educate and engage legislators (parliamentarians) in all fields of disarmament, including of nuclear weapons, other weapons of mass destruction, other inhumane weapons, small arms and light weapons, other conventional weapons and emerging weapons. The approach and focus of the guide draws primarily from Securing our Common Future: An Agenda for Disarmament, a report released by the United Nations Secretary-General (UNSG) in 2018 and followed up by the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) with guidelines and support for implementation. The parliamentary guide offers recommendations and examples of parliamentary action and exemplary policy relating to the disarmament issues and goals outlined in the UNSG’s report. In addition it includes a section on disarmament and public health in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, also with recommendations and examples of policy and parliamentary action.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Disarmament, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16742. America’s ‘Turkey Dilemma’ in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Jon B. Alterman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey represents a multi-layered challenge for the United States in the Eastern Mediterranean, where it is simultaneously an ally and an antagonist. Its status as a partly European and partly Middle Eastern state confounds a US policy process that has stark divisions between the two regions. Turkey’s maritime activities stymie a policy process that is overwhelmingly terrestrial in its orientation. Turkey is also seeking to become more deeply involved in a region in which the United States has important stakes but where it is seeking to reduce its footprint. Most importantly, though, the United States lacks both a strategy and a policy towards the Eastern Mediterranean, providing opportunities for a proactive Turkey to act while the United States and its allies react. While a strategy would not by itself resolve growing US tensions with Turkey, it would provide opportunities for greater policy coordination across the US government, and with allies as well. The US–Turkey alliance was a bulwark of US global strategy for decades, but tensions have been growing lately. Turkey’s Kemalist heritage, its massive conventional army, and its wariness of the Soviet Union just to its north served US strategy in the half-century after World War II. However, in the last two decades, all three pillars of the relationship have been shaken. Turkey’s simultaneous embrace of a muscular nationalism, politicians’ marginalisation of the military, and the country exploring a new modus vivendi with Russia all render Turkey a troubling and confounding partner.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America
16743. Is Escalation Between France and Turkey in the Middle East and Beyond Inescapable?
- Author:
- Dorothee Schmid
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent years, France and Turkey have been on opposing sides relating to Middle East concerns. The countries’ disagreements over situations in Syria, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and lately the Caucasus, have escalated significantly, generating fears of a proxy conflict with direct military confrontation between the two North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members. Attempting to rally widespread European support, France assertively challenges the Turkish “neo-Ottoman” ambitions; while Paris is anxious of Ankara’s acts outside of Paris’s expectations for a historically narrowly defined Turkish national interests. In the medium-term, the two countries appear to be testing each other to redefine their respective zones of influence, adapting their foreign policy objectives in the turbulent dynamics of the post-Arab Spring era. This power competition resonates domestically, as both the French and the Turkish public are receptive to the developing negative narratives of “the other.”
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and France
16744. Syrian People’s Council Elections 2020: The Regime’s Social Base Contracts
- Author:
- Ziad Awad and Agnes Favier
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic crisis, the Syrian People’s Council elections were held in July 2020, following two postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the electoral campaign slogans launched by the candidates – especially the independents – focused on economic concerns, and made reference to charitable contributions and propaganda from the candidates, the elections failed to capture the interest of the majority of constituencies in the territories controlled by the Bashar al-Assad regime. As usual, the ruling Baath Party controls the majority of seats in the new Council. Certain marginal parties allied with the Baath are also represented within the so-called National Progressive Front (NPF), which is led by the Baath itself. Independents rank second in terms of seat numbers after the Baathists. However, partisan affiliations are of no significance in terms of stances vis-à-vis the regime, since loyalty is a non-negotiable prerequisite for all 250 MPs, and indeed all candidates. Though the Baath Party retains an absolute majority of seats in parliament (66.8%), the elections demonstrated the inability of its leadership to revive the Party as an effective political tool capable of exercising influence by itself. First, the primaries for selecting Party candidates were marked by limited participation, accusations of corruption and widespread objections within the Party. Second, the parliamentary elections saw a historically low turnout (33%), illustrating the Party's inability to mobilise the electorate. Finally, attempts to renew the Baathist bloc in the People's Council resulted in the rise of military and paramilitary figures (with the entry into parliament of retired army and police officers); a growing influence of capital (with higher numbers of businessmen MPs); and the emergence of centres of power outside the traditional Party structure (with the entry of charity and development activists, backed by First Lady Asma al-Assad). This heterogeneity within the Baath’s parliamentary bloc illustrates the reality of the Party today, which appears weaker than it was before the outbreak of the revolution.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16745. Cooperation in Trade in Services
- Author:
- Akshay Mathur and Purvaja Modak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, there has been a shift in global trade from trade in goods to trade in services. Unlike goods, services are intangible and consumed by the user directly, without intermediate supervision. Thus, the only way to ensure the quality of a service is to enforce standards on the service provider. This is the responsibility of domestic sector-specific regulatory institutions established by the government. This paper examines the current state of services trade in India and Canada, considers India’s services trade with Canada and outlines a number of measures the countries could take to support services trade.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Services, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- Canada, India, Asia, and North America
16746. Fostering Growth in Digital Trade through Bilateral Cooperation in the Development of Trade Rules
- Author:
- Don Stephenson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Like foreign policy, trade policy is the outward expression of domestic policy — both economic and social — and trade negotiations are to advance the national interest. Both India and Canada have important commercial interests in digital trade and both have counterbalancing social policy concerns, but they have important differences as well. Their equitable participation in digital trade must overcome an imbalanced competitive landscape through measures to facilitate access to technology and infrastructure, financing, and training in digital technology literacy and data-based business models. As yet, there is no international consensus on how trade rules should be adapted to foster digital trade. Consistent with the Track 1.5 Dialogue objectives, this paper calls on Canada and India to partner and lead in advancing the digital trade agenda. It recommends creating a bilateral process to identify common causes and areas for collaboration; convening a business-to-business conversation supported with research and analysis; and focusing on the impact of digital technology, looking at not only electronic commerce but also trade in traditional service sectors.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- Canada, India, Asia, and North America
16747. India-Canada Energy Cooperation
- Author:
- Amit Bhandari
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- The energy sectors of India and Canada complement each other: India is a large and growing oil importer, while Canada is a large and growing exporter of oil and gas. However, as they invested in oil fields across the world, Indian oil companies have missed out on the Canada story. Investing in Canada’s oil sector can help India guard against the risk of spikes in oil prices and provide Canada with long-term demand security. In this paper, first presented as a backgrounder at Track 1.5 meetings in Mumbai, India, in November 2019, Gateway House outlines its findings on the feasibility of Indian investment in Canada’s petroleum sector, suggesting a path forward and best prospects for investment.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Gas, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Canada, India, Asia, and North America
16748. Assessing Digitalization and Data Governance Issues in Africa
- Author:
- Adedeji Adeniran and Idris Ademuyiwa
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- The growth of digitalization and digital technology adoption in Africa holds the key to strengthening and diversifying economies across the continent. Although these developments offer potentially life-changing benefits for consumers, businesses and governments, the inherent flaws in the digital market mean these benefits are not guaranteed. As most gains from the digital economy are largely concentrated in the United States and China, the digital divide may widen the gap between the Global North and the Global South.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global South
16749. Sustainable Energy through Green Bonds in India
- Author:
- Olaf Weber and Vasundhara Saravade
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Emerging economies, such as India, will need significant international investment in climate action in order to transition toward a future that is low-carbon and climate-resilient. India needs fossil fuels at an affordable price and needs to protect itself against price fluctuations. It can meet these needs by investing in Canadian oil companies, given the country’s political stability and rule of law. As an emerging economy, India could attract greater foreign direct investment into its economy through green bonds, a climate finance debt instrument that addresses environmental and climate-related challenges. Not only are green bond issuances linearly increasing over the years, but they also seem to be driven by institutional pressure, provided in part by the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s regulation, as well as by the informal advocacy efforts of market stakeholders. These findings are consistent with institutional theory and contribute to it by introducing the regulatory perspective of the green bond market.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
16750. Environmental Provisions in CUSMA: A New Approach
- Author:
- Silvia Maciunas
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- The environmental chapter in the newly ratified Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) builds on the environmental chapters of its predecessors: the North American Free Trade Agreement and the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation between Canada, the United States and Mexico. Although CUSMA contains greater environmental provisions in the form of pollution prevention, the control of toxic substances and illegal fishing, and the conservation of wild flora and fauna, it fails to address climate change, the most critical challenge of our time.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, NAFTA, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, Mexico, and United States of America