Publication Year: within 5 Years and within 25 Years

16651. The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum: Cooperation in the Shadow of Competition

Author:: Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Established in January 2019, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) is the most significant multinational organization in a geopolitical space often associated with conflict and competition. Currently comprised of Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Greece, Italy and the Palestinian Authority, the forum’s purpose to advance opportunities for energy development and cooperation between Eastern Mediterranean states in order to maximize the commercial potential of the region’s hydrocarbon reserves. This paper analyzes the diplomatic processes that resulted in the EMGF’s formation, the current challenges the forum faces, and Israel’s capacity to shape this nascent body’s future. If the forum hopes to grow in the postcoronavirus era, then it must commit to seeking pathways towards economic cooperation, enhancing its scope to include renewable energy, while also prioritizing conflict resolution and the establishment of a new maritime order.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, Gas, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Italy, Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

16652. The Middle East Rediscovers the Jews

Author:: Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This article reviews the changed attitudes of Arab states (especially the “core” states of the Middle East) toward the Jews from the turn of the millennium to the present. It places these changes in a broad diplomatic context, which also relates to improved ties between Israel and Middle Eastern states and these states’ strengthening alliance with the US. The article presents the difficulties of Arab regimes and societies in differentiating between Jews and Israel, briefly describes widespread manifestations of anti-Semitism in the second half of the 20th century in Arab culture and media, and reviews the changing geopolitics and awareness in Arab states that have affected the development of interfaith discourse between Jews and Muslims. The article argues that a significant turnaround has occurred over the past two decades in the attitude of Arab regimes toward the Jews by virtue of the geopolitical changes in the Middle East and a desire to project enlightenment and modernity to the West. The resulting increased Jewish-Muslim dialogue could imbue future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations with an added dimension and contribute to their success.
Topic:: Demographics, Religion, Ethnicity, Judaism, and History
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Egypt

16653. The Palestinian Issue as Ground and Ceiling for Arab-Israeli Cooperation

Author:: Thair Abu Ras
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This paper provides an historic overview of Israel's relationship with the Arab world followed by an in-depth review of cooperation between Arab states and Israel on solving and managing the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. The Palestinian issue served to enable and limit relations between Israel and Arab states along the years. Reviving Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and improving the status of the Palestinians have been the central tenants of cooperation between Israel and Arab states. The Palestinian issue serves as a legitimizing factor for Israeli-Arab cooperation, and the occupation remains an obstacle to accomplishing regional stability. The Abraham Accords may intensify Israeli-Arab cooperation on the Palestinian issue, thus making the quest for a peaceful resolution to the Palestinian issue more central to Israel's regional foreign policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Regional Integration, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

16654. The Israeli Governmental Conduct in Advancing Cooperation with Arab States

Author:: Ksenia Svetlova and Mor Yahalom
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Cooperation can yield stability, continued development and strengthened ties between states. Broad, fruitful Israeli cooperation with Arab states will open many economic, security, intelligence, energy, tourism, and medical opportunities, with the potential for more to come. Therefore, this goal must be identified and pursued. This paper is intended to enrich the theoretical and practical knowledge of Israel’s regional cooperation and provide background for understanding and assessing the variety of existing practices that Israel employs, on the governmental level, to advance regional cooperation and implement it. The paper details the various Israeli ministries and agencies tasked with managing and developing cooperation with Arab states, the division of responsibility among them and the practices they employ. It also identifies current opportunities and characterizes the challenges hampering and delaying potential cooperation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

16655. Civilian Cooperation between Israel and Arab States: How Does it Work?

Author:: Roee Kibrik and Einat Levi
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Civilian cooperation between Israel and Arab states takes place on various levels and in different fields despite the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict that often prevents and always challenges the establishment of full, normal relations between the citizens of Israel and the region. This paper is intended to serve anyone seeking to promote Israel-Arab normalization, peace and cooperation, by spotlighting the wide array of existing civilian relations and trying to learn from experience for the sake of expanding future cooperation. Learning from experience is important both in order to efficiently and effectively advance regional cooperation toward peace, and also to advance existing cooperation, especially given its potential for offering better conditions for a political-diplomatic process. The potential for regional cooperation does not rely only on formal diplomatic, security and economic agreements between states, but also on ties between civilians. That is especially true for the desire to advance normalization as reflected in relations on the civil society level and the public legitimization of relations in a wide variety of fields. This paper analyzes civilian cooperation practices between Israelis and residents of states in the Middle East and North Africa, in the environment, sports, tourism, science, religion and heritage, culture and humanitarian aid.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

16656. Briefing on the Israel-UAE normalization agreement

Author:: Elie Podeh, Moran Zaga, Ksenia Svetlova, and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Mitvim Institute experts, Prof. Elie Podeh, Dr. Moran Zaga, Former MK Ksenia Svetlova, and Dr. Nimrod Goren, share analysis on why the diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the UAE happened, and what are its implications for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking and for Israel's relations in the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and UAE

16657. Israeli Foreign Policy Index briefing

Author:: Gabriel Mitchell and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Presentation by Gabriel Mitchell and Dr. Nimrod Goren of the Mitvim Institute's 8th annual public opinion poll on Israeli foreign policy, carried out in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16658. The 4th Annual Conference of the Mitvim Institute, Opening Remarks

Author:: Merav Kahana-Dagan and Paul Pasch
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The 4th Annual Conference of the Mitvim Institute on Israel's regional foreign policies, Held in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 28 October 2020 Opening Remarks Merav Kahana-Dagan, Deputy Head of the Mitvim Institute Dr. Paul Pasch, Director of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Israel
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Conference
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16659. Israel’s Relations with the Middle East, Europe and the Mediterranean

Author:: Roee Kibrik, Elie Podeh, Moran Zaga, Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, and Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The 4th Annual Conference of the Mitvim Institute on Israel's regional foreign policies, Held in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 28 October 2020. Israel’s Relations with the Middle East, Europe and the Mediterranean: Dr. Roee Kibrik, Director of Research at the Mitvim Institute; Prof. Elie Podeh, Board Member at the Mitvim Institute; Dr. Moran Zaga, Policy Fellow at the Mitvim Institute; Dr. Maya Sion Tzidkiyahu, Director of the Program on Israel-Europe Relations at the Mitvim Institute; Gabriel Mitchell, Director of External Relations at the Mitvim Institute.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean

16660. Israeli Diplomacy in Muslim and Arab States

Author:: Nimrod Goren, Haim Regev, Haim Regev, Ksenia Svetlova, Ehud Eiran, and Yael Ravia Zadok
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The 4th Annual Conference of the Mitvim Institute on Israel's regional foreign policies, Held in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 28 October 2020. Israeli Diplomacy in Muslim and Arab States Dr. Nimrod Goren, Head of the Mitvim Institute; Haim Regev, Deputy Director General for Middle East, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Former MK Ksenia Svetlova, Director of the Program on Israel-Middle East Relations at the Mitvim Institute; Dr. Ehud Eiran, Board Member at the Mitvim Institute; Yael Ravia Zadok, Deputy Director General and Head of the Economic Diplomacy Division, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

16661. Language Change in Progress: Chinese Internet Lexicon and the Symbolic Meaning in the Harmonious Society

Author:: Ting-Yu Lee
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Globalization and communication on the internet poses challenges to sociolinguistics. China is one of the engines of economic in the world. Since the Internet service started in 1994, it has been developing rapidly. The rapid development of Internet communication in China has created huge impact on the Chinese language and society. According to Yates (1996), a new medium of communication such as the Internet not only draws upon existing linguistic practices, but also generates new forms of Chinese Internet lexicon. The rapid diffusion of the Internet has prompted developments in the variety and creativity of language use. Internet users often create new words or appropriate the meanings of existing words. The resultant “Internet language” has unique lexical and discourse features. Li (2002) and Ma (2002) confirmed that Internet lexicon has brought the tremendous impact and spread to everyday usage in Chinese society. In 2006 National Language Resources Monitoring and Research Graphic Media Center has released the first time an annual report of Inventory of Chinese Language (汉语盘点 Hanyu pandian). Since 2011 ten most popular Internet hot words have been released annually by National Language Resources Monitoring and Research Graphic Media Center. This research is aimed to discusses the emergence and use of most popular Chinese Internet vocabularies in the recent 10 years. Based on the data from National Language Resources Monitoring and Research Graphic Media Center, the most popular Chinese Internet words and phrases(2011–2019) are analyzed and summarized into twelve categories. The implication and findings of the symbolic meaning embedded in the Chinese internet lexicon are analyzed. This study sets out to examine the transformation of internet lexicon in China and to argue the equivalent relation between symbols, language and popular culture.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, Language, and Society
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16662. Participation of Kazakhstan in the Chinese “One Belt, One Road” Initiative: Advantages, Problems and Prospects

Author:: Saltanat Kuzembayeva
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The article is devoted to the geoeconomic goals and prospects of implementing the Chinese initiative „One Belt, One Road”. The author explores the benefits, problems and future opportunities that open up to the Republic of Kazakhstan as a participant in this initiative. The analysis carried out in the article showed that there are still many problems in the implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) project taking into account the state program of Kazakhstan “Nurly Zhol”, and difficulties arise in the practical implementation of various cooperation areas. At the same time, Kazakhstan should be guided exclusively by its national interests in cooperation with China in the framework of the “One Belt, One Way” initiative.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Asia

16663. The First Contacts between China and Poland in History

Author:: Bi Wei
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Poland is one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with People’s Republic of China. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties 70 years ago, both countries have conducted close cooperation in all areas and the bilateral relations have witnessed steady development. In particular, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, launched in 2013, got the positive responses and support from many countries, including Poland, which became an important partner for China to promote the construction of the initiative. This paper, from a historical perspective, reviews the first interaction between China and Poland in the period of Yuan Dynasty which is arranged in chronological order. The narrations mainly concentrate on accounts of the western expeditions by Genghis Khan and his descendants as well as the Battle of Legnica, during the period of which the Mongolia Empire was successively set up. Each entry will include a concrete description, highlighting where possible issues such as where the Mongolia went, why the expedition and its record are important. The paper also expounds the first record about Poland and the change of the name of Poland in Chinese literature so as to deepen the mutual understanding between two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Poland

16664. The Peace-Building Process in the South China Sea: Challenges and Future Prospects for a Maritime Regime

Author:: Kamila Stasiak
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to examine two treaties which are often presented by scholars as potential models for a maritime regime in the South China Sea, namely the Svalbard Treaty and the Antarctic Treaty System. The work concludes that even though both of the treaties have resolved equally complex territorial disputes, their importance as a role model for the SCS is limited due to the unique political condition in the Asia-Pacific. However, the solutions within the sphere of environmental protection and the structure of decision-making institutions developed by the abovementioned treaties present a valuable lesson and a potential example for the countries involved in the South China Sea dispute to emulate. The article argues that cooperation within environmental protection and fisheries management, as a low-profile endeavour, is easier to be put into practice than the joint development of highly contested hydrocarbon resources of the SCS. Furthermore, it can potentially lay foundation for the future high profile collaboration. The paper also presents a model of a maritime regime for the South China Sea.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Peace
Political Geography:: China and South China Sea

16665. Taiwanese Attitudes toward the Political Newcomers in 2016

Author:: Anna Rudakowska
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (LY) is commonly seen as an institution comprised of career politicians. In fact, candidates without prior experience in elected seats of the island’s political structures are no strangers to the LY. Moreover, in the 2016 parliamentary elections, the political novices enjoyed unprecedented support and achieved relative success. The New Power Party (NPP), which only formed in early 2015 and popular mainly due to the several debutants it fielded, including Freddy Lim, Hung Tzu-yung and Huang Kuo-chang, emerged as the LY’s third-largest party. Although it garnered only five of the 113 seats (4.4%), it was a great win for the fledgling party, ranking it third behind the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which have reigned over the island’s political scene for the past several decades. This article examines the phenomenon of Taiwanese novices. It looks at them from the voters’ perspective. It surveys the demographic profiles and political preferences of Taiwanese who support the newcomers’ engagement in the political process, and compares them with citizens who express negative attitudes toward the newcomers.
Topic:: Politics, Communications, Elections, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

16666. The Implications of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor for Pakistan–European Union Relations

Author:: Agnieszka Nitza-Makowska
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) holds the potential to transform Pakistan along with its turbulent regional environment. In the short run, the multiple networks of infrastructure that the project provides will eventually improve Pakistan–European Union (EU) trade. Moreover, while the CPEC is unlikely to bring an immediate strategic shift in the bilateral dialogue, which is particularly lacking in political dynamics, its long-run promises can help to foster such dynamics. The project, if successful, can help Pakistan to establish a peaceful domestic environment and subsequently promote the country’s fresh image to reverse its soft power losses in Europe and beyond. This paper investigates contemporary Pakistan–EU relations, which have so far attracted little attention from international relations scholars. It presents the bilateral dynamics in the context of the CPEC, which is an unprecedented investment by China in Pakistan. The paper concludes by shedding light on the differences between China’s and the EU’s strategies vis-à-vis Pakistan. Despite the fact that the study focuses on one particular South Asian state, it can serve as a case study for the comparative analysis of China’s and the EU’s presence in third countries, especially those that, like Pakistan, have joined the Belt and Road Initiative.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, European Union, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, Europe, South Asia, and Asia

16667. New Silk Road – An Opportunity for the Development of Rail Container Transport in Poland?

Author:: Aleksandra Bartosiewicz and Paulina Szterlik
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Poland, due to its location in the center of Europe, is a key element of the New Silk Road (NSR), an initiative that attempts to create the shortest land connection between China and Western Europe. This article analyzes various industry reports, national development strategies up to 2030, and EU and local projects to see is the further development of NSR an opportunity for container rail transport in Poland. As it turns out, the issue discussed in the article has hitherto been outside the circle of researchers’ interest, thus the analysis is an important supplement to the existing research gap. It indicates that the further participation of Poland in the Chinese One Belt One Road initiative is a great opportunity for the economic growth of the Republic of Poland (RP).
Topic:: Development, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, Transportation, and Railways
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Poland

16668. Monitoring the Inclusiveness of Ghana’s Planting for Food and Jobs Program in the Bosome Freho and Saboba Districts

Author:: William Quarmine
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: In March 2017, the New Patriotic Party (NPP)-led government announced the implementation of a ‘Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ)’program in pursuit of its 2016 election campaign promise of enhancing agricultural productivity. Launched in April, 2017, the program seeks to promote self-sufficiency in food production while providing jobs to Ghanaians. The government sought to achieve the program objectives through the provision of improved seeds, the supply of fertilizers, the provision of dedicated extension services, purchase and marketing of food produce, among other initiatives. As part of its mission to track allocation of national resources, and especially the extent to which marginalized communities and groups, particularly women and youth, are included in this resource allocation, the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) implemented a project titled ‘Promoting Fiscal Justice for Socio-Economic Transformation (PFJSET)’. The overall objective of this project was to track and assess the extent of inclusiveness of the PFJ program in terms of reach and resource allocation.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Food, Women, Food Security, Youth, Job Creation, and Marginalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

16669. Brief Introduction on the International Impacts of the 2020 Pandemic: Contributions to a Strategic Analysis

Author:: Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The origins of the current pandemic are wrapped up in conspiracy theories, but what is known is that it reached the foundations of the world system based on economic globalisation, reinforcing national and social antagonisms. Analysing the situation during its unpredictable evolution is risky, but the costs of not trying are even greater, given the prevailing confusion and manipulation. The dimensions and speed of the spread of the virus are unprecedented, since the world is much more urbanised and connected than in previous pandemics. Dominant strategies and narratives simply lost their meaning, leaving a vacuum that is filled by short-term reactive actions. But is hard politics paralysed, or the crisis creates conditions for projects to be implemented almost without opposition?
Topic:: Globalization, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16670. The Decline of Brazil's International Influence: From An Emerging Country to an Inward-Looking State

Author:: Helio Caetano Farias and Leonardo Pace Alves
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Why has Brazil’s international influence subsided? From 2003 to 2014, Brazil fostered its socioeconomic development and pursued an assertive foreign policy that raised its international profile. Besides promoting regional integration, with Mercosur and UNASUR, Brazil played an important role in international coalitions such as the BRICS and the G 20. However, those initiatives have lost momentum from 2015 onwards. This paper aims to explain the decline in Brazil’s international influence. We hypothesize that Brazil’s politico-economic crisis, caused by domestic power struggles and international reaction to its ascent, has weakened its position as an emerging country. International systemic constraints are important, albeit not enough to account for such a setback. A comprehensive explanation needs to take in consideration both geopolitical factors and domestic power struggles.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

16671. Analysis of the Brazilian Crisis: Preliminary Effects on South-South Cooperation

Author:: Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva and Niemeyer Almeida Filho
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The current Brazilian political and economic context is one of intense crisis and it will inevitably impact public policies. In 2000’s, practices of International Cooperation and Development (ICD) gained emphasis through organized experience sharing between developing country governments and international organizations. Brazil deepened its partnerships with others Southern countries, a practice that came to be known as South-South Cooperation (SSC). However, following the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, the incoming administration introduced government spending limits in the form of a Constitutional Amendment (95/2016) which structurally decreased resources available for SSC and consequently limited possibilities to continue deepening international involvement. This article analyzes the first effects of the new fiscal regime for SSC using a bibliographic review and a case study of the Social Protection.Org platform which is managed by the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG), a centre of research excellence established through a partnership between the United Nations and Brazilian government.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Global South

16672. Regional Stability: Brazil and the South American Defense Council

Author:: Vinicius Damasceno Nascimento
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The South American Defense Council and Brazil have regional importance, considering that stability in South America is not guaranteed. This study has the objectives of confirming, in military terms, the condition of Brazil as an important regional protagonist; and analyzing its possible contribution to regional stability
Topic:: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: South America

16673. The US and Russian Resource Rivalry in the Context of the Contemporary Venezuelan Crisis Perils of the Rentier Petro-State

Author:: Anurag Tripathi and Girisanker S.B.
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Venezuela continues to face rampant inflation, poverty and diseases pilling up in light of the US sanctions against PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela,S.A), the Venezuelan state-owned Oil Company. Despite the crisis, Russia continues to play a key role in supporting the regime of Nicolas Maduro and sustaining oil production in the country. The research focuses on the role played by Russia is helping the current regime to survive against the US sanctions and the vested interest it brings along with it. The outcome of the research is to find out the role played by Russian oil industries in shaping Russia’s Foreign Policy in Venezuela and to know whether Moscow has any leverage over the energy sector in Venezuela. The paper gives prime importance to the Venezuelan economy and the Geopolitics of oil. The research aims to give a whole new outlook in the field of International Relations by exploring the nuances of oil giants in shaping relations between countries.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Gas, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

16674. A Look at Taiwan's Cooperation with Paraguay (2009-2019)

Author:: Maria Antonella Cabral Lopez
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Taiwan's situation in the international system is particular and the recognition of other states is key to its survival. Paraguay has maintained diplomatic relations with this Asian country continuously since 1957. This research aims to describe the south - south cooperation of Taiwan with Paraguay during the period 2009 - 2019, a very important facet of the bilateral relationship between both parties. For this, a bibliographic-documentary research was used. In addition is important to mention the level of this was descriptive and primary and secondary sources were employed. Among the main results obtained, it can be seen that non-reimbursable cooperation projects are being adjusted according to five-year negotiations, that there is some continuity regarding the issues addressed by technical cooperation and the existence of other less known initiatives such as conferences and participation in fairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, South America, and Paraguay

16675. East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia's new trade blocs

Author:: Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: he deepening US-China trade war and nationalist reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic are reshaping global economic relationships. Alongside these developments, two new megaregional trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will refocus East Asia’s economic ties in the region itself. The new accords are moving forward without the United States and India, once seen as critical partners in the CPTPP and RCEP, respectively. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that the agreements will raise global national incomes in 2030 by an annual $147 billion and $186 billion, respectively. They will yield especially large benefits for China, Japan, and South Korea and losses for the United States and India. These effects are simulated both in a business-as-before-Trump environment and in the context of a sustained US-China trade war. The effects were simulated before the COVID-19 shock but seem increasingly likely in the wake of the pandemic. Compared with business as before, the trade war generates large global losses rising to $301 billion annually by 2030. The new agreements offset the effects of the trade war globally, but not for the United States and China. The trade war makes RCEP especially valuable because it strengthens East Asian interdependence, raising trade among members by $428 billion and reducing trade among nonmembers by $48 billion. These shifts bring regional ties closer to institutional arrangements proposed in the 1990s and incentivize greater cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Trade Wars, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Free Trade, COVID-19, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16676. The rise and fall of import substitution

Author:: Douglas A. Irwin
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: n the 1950s, many economists believed that import substitution—policies to restrict imports of manufactured goods—was the best trade strategy to promote industrialization and economic growth in developing countries. By the mid-1960s, however, there was widespread disenchantment with the results of such a policy, even among its proponents. This paper traces the rise and fall of import substitution as a development idea. Perhaps surprisingly, early advocates of import substitution were quite cautious in their support for the policy and were also among the first to question it based on evidence derived from country experiences.
Topic:: Economy, Trade Policy, Protectionism, and Imports
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

16677. Harry Johnson's "case for flexible exchange rates"—50 years later

Author:: Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Fifty years ago, Harry G. Johnson published "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, 1969," its title echoing Milton Friedman’s classic essay of 1953. Though somewhat overlooked today, Johnson’s reprise was an important element in the late 1960s debate over the future of the international monetary system. In this Working Paper, Obstfeld lays out the historical context in which Johnson’s “Case” was written and read and then examines Johnson’s main points and sees how they stand up to nearly five decades of experience with floating exchange rates since the end of the Bretton Woods system. He also reviews the most recent academic critiques of exchange rate flexibility and asks how fatal they are to Johnson’s basic argument. He concludes that the essential case for exchange rate flexibility still stands strong.
Topic:: History, Monetary Policy, Economy, Central Bank, and Currency
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16678. The short- and long-term costs to the United States of the Trump administration’s attempt to deport foreign students

Author:: Sherman Robinson, Marcus Noland, Egor Gornostay, and Soyoung Han
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On July 6, 2020, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced modifications to the Student and Exchange Visitor Program eliminating temporary exemptions for nonimmigrant students taking all classes online due to the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in the fall 2020 semester. Foreign students violating the rule would be subject to deportation. Under public pressure, the Trump administration rescinded the order on July 14. Had the policy been implemented, more than 1 million foreign students studying in the United States could have been deported. The authors use an economywide simulation model to estimate the economic impact on the United States if the policy had been implemented. They find that the policy would have cost the US economy up to 752,000 jobs and $68 billion in lost GDP in the short run. Their estimates are larger than those reported in other studies because they consider both direct and indirect effects of the policy. In the long run, the move would have reduced the research productivity of American universities and adversely affected research, innovation, and entrepreneurship across the economy, in both the private and public sectors.
Topic:: Education, Migration, Labor Issues, Donald Trump, COVID-19, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16679. Sovereign debt restructuring: The centrality of the IMF's role

Author:: Sean Hagan
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Over the past 40 years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a central role in the sovereign debt restructuring process. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant wave of sovereign debt distress, this role will be closely scrutinized. The paper analyzes how IMF policies have evolved to shape the incentives of sovereigns and their creditors at each stage of the sovereign debt restructuring process. It also identifies a number of issues that the IMF will likely have to address as a result of the pandemic, including (1) assessment of debt sustainability in a macroeconomic environment of considerable uncertainty, (2) treatment of official bilateral creditors, and (3) potential benefits—and challenges—of introducing additional incentives to maximize creditor participation in any debt restructuring.
Topic:: Debt, Emerging Markets, Government, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16680. Public procurement in law and practice

Author:: Erica Bosio, Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser, and Andrei Shleifer
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines a new dataset of laws and practices governing public procurement, as well as procurement outcomes, in 187 countries. The authors measure regulation as restrictions on the discretion of the procuring agents. They find that laws and practices are highly correlated with each other across countries, and better practices are correlated with better outcomes, but laws themselves are not correlated with outcomes. To shed light on this puzzle, they present a model of procurement in which both regulation and public sector capacity determine the efficiency of procurement. In the model, regulation is effective in countries with low public sector capacity and detrimental in countries with high public sector capacity because it inhibits the socially optimal exercise of discretion. The paper finds evidence broadly consistent with this prediction: Regulation of procurement improves outcomes but only in countries with low public sector capacity.
Topic:: Government, Law, Regulation, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16681. Trade surplus or deficit? Neither matters for changes in manufacturing employment shares

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Many countries have launched industrial policy programs to improve their manufacturing competitiveness based on the idea that countries with larger trade surpluses or smaller deficits in manufacturing will have higher shares of manufacturing employment. And as countries try to generate a recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, these programs are being enlarged. But while the higher productivity in manufacturing that these programs generate may initially increase manufacturing output and expand trade surpluses in manufacturing, it will also reduce the manufacturing jobs required to manufacture those goods for domestic spending and generating the larger trade balances. As a result, the impact on employment is likely to be substantially smaller than might be expected. Improved productivity implies that goods can be manufactured more cheaply using fewer workers, so unless there is high enough demand at home and abroad for the lower-priced or new products that productivity growth generates, any additional jobs created could be substantially lower than might be expected. This is not just a theoretical possibility. Using data from a sample of 60 countries, this paper shows that between 1995 and 2011, on average countries with trade surpluses in manufacturing experienced declines in manufacturing employment shares that were slightly larger than the declines in countries with manufacturing trade deficits. Additionally, the declines in manufacturing employment shares were as large in countries where the manufacturing trade balance moved in a positive direction as in those where it declined. This suggests that even if industrial policies generate larger trade surpluses in manufacturing, they may not succeed in reversing the trend declines in manufacturing employment shares that have persisted in many countries for several decades.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Manufacturing, Trade Policy, Protectionism, and Trade Deficit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16682. How the United States marched the semiconductor industry into its trade war with China

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The US-China trade war forced a reluctant semiconductor industry into someone else’s fight, a very different position from its leading role in the 1980s trade conflict with Japan. This paper describes how the political economy of the global semiconductor industry has evolved since the 1980s. That includes both a shift in the business model behind how semiconductors go from conception to a finished product as well as the geographic reorientation toward Asia of demand and manufactured supply. It uses that lens to explain how, during the modern conflict with China, US policymakers turned to a legally complex set of export restrictions targeting the semiconductor supply chain in the attempt to safeguard critical infrastructure in the telecommunications sector. The potentially far-reaching tactics included weaponization of exports by relatively small but highly specialized American software service and equipment providers in order to constrain Huawei, a Fortune Global 500 company. It describes potential costs of such policies, some of their unintended consequences, and whether policymakers might push them further in the attempt to constrain other Chinese firms.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Trade Wars, Industry, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16683. A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The measures that most governments took in response to the sudden collapse in economic activity during the COVID-19 lockdowns nearly exclusively focused on protecting vulnerable workers and firms. These measures included unemployment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates, and tax deferrals. As lockdowns are lifted, governments must shift policies toward supporting the recovery and design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment while preserving productive jobs and firms. This Policy Brief explores how such measures can be designed, with particular emphasis on Europe and the United States. The authors propose a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and debt restructuring procedures for small and medium-sized companies handicapped by excessive legacy debt from the crisis.
Topic:: Government, Labor Issues, European Union, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America

16684. When more delivers less: Comparing the US and French COVID-19 crisis responses

Author:: Jérémie Cohen-Setton and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The US package of measures to help households hit by the economic shock from the COVID-19 crisis, including the Paycheck Protection Program, is almost twice as large in proportion of GDP as the French package, but it has proven less effective in curbing unemployment because of poor design and implementation. In contrast, the increase in the unemployment rate in France has been five times less than the increase in the United States. Cohen-Setton and Pisani-Ferry dive beneath the unreliable headline numbers to assess the effectiveness of government support provided to households in March–May 2020 in the two countries. They conclude that the French approach (mirrored in some other European countries) delivered a bigger bang for the buck. But the fact that the US approach has fallen short should not diminish the significance of the policy shift signaled by the enactment of measures to maintain household income.
Topic:: Education, Financial Crisis, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

16685. US unemployment insurance in the pandemic and beyond

Author:: Jason Furman
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Unemployment insurance in the United States has played a critical role in both protecting workers who lost their jobs and supporting the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The abrupt expiration of any form of expanded unemployment insurance at the end of July 2020 would create problems both for the workers directly affected and for the economy as a whole, reducing GDP by about 2.5 percent in the second half of 2020—more than a typical year’s worth of economic growth. Furman emphasizes that expanded unemployment insurance should continue, with adjustments made as the unemployment rate changes. He also points out that the unemployment insurance system had major shortcomings even before the COVID-19 crisis and should be permanently reformed.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Unemployment, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16686. A possible IMF Pandemic Support Facility for emerging-market countries

Author:: Matthew Fisher and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adapts its strategy to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis, it should develop a new temporary lending instrument to assist emerging-market countries facing pandemic-related fiscal and balance of payments difficulties. A dedicated IMF Pandemic Support Facility would help meet the exceptional financing needs of emerging-market countries at a time of high uncertainty while providing more lenient repayment periods and also allow the Fund to be more flexible in its operations with minimum disruptions to its existing facilities.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16687. Lebanon's monetary meltdown tests the limits of central banking

Author:: Patrick Honohan and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Lebanon has spent the last 20 years juggling an excessive level of debt and current account deficits. Apparent financial wizardry by the central bank (Banque du Liban) helped keep the exchange rate fixed, inflation low, and debt service flowing until 2020. But these efforts merely postponed the inevitable, at a high cost. Repeated shocks to the Lebanese economy and governance weaknesses pushed the financial contraption over the cliff before the COVID-19 outbreak. The explosion that ripped through the Port of Beirut in early August added to the disarray. The Lebanese pound has crashed, the government has defaulted on some of its debt, and restrictions have been placed on deposit withdrawals and access to foreign exchange. Lebanon faces an uncertain future of uneven suffering. It will need foreign assistance, but such assistance will not extend to covering the losses of the banking system. How the losses are distributed will set the scene for Lebanon’s future development. Policymakers should aim for fairness, predictability, and stability without overindebtedness.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, and Banking
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

16688. Sovereign debt relief in the global pandemic: Lessons from the 1980s

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic and an unprecedented global recession have triggered fears of a debt crisis requiring massive intervention by international financial institutions as well as debt restructuring by private and official creditors. Truman draws two lessons for the current crisis, based on his ring-side experience during the debt crises of the 1980s. First, the initiation of debt relief will require a broad consensus among four groups: the borrowing countries, their foreign creditors, the authorities of the countries in which those creditors are located, and international institutions. Reaching consensus takes time. Second, implementation of the consensus framework will be case by case, because of differences in the political and economic circumstances of each country, which will militate against simple replication for different countries and against implementation all at the same time. Any framework will not be self-implementing. While the call for rapid action is understandable, applying a one-size-fits-all approach will not be possible.
Topic:: Debt, Emerging Markets, History, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, World Bank, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16689. Impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on individual mobility and the importance of socioeconomic factors

Author:: Julien Maire
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In March 2020, most countries implemented stringent measures—closing schools and workplaces, limiting public gatherings, and curbing travel—to reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19. Using the Oxford Stringency Index and smartphone data from Google, Maire examines the effects of the stringent measures implemented in March–May 2020 on individual mobility. The results suggest that stringent measures were more effective at reducing individual mobility in higher-income countries than in lower-income countries and that the differences reflect factors such as extreme poverty, perception of risk, the share of vulnerable employment, number of hospital beds, age distribution of the population, and population density. Understanding how the effects of lockdown measures on individual mobility differed across countries is important to determine the effectiveness of such measures on health outcomes and their impact on economic activity.
Topic:: Health, Science and Technology, Governance, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16690. Taming the US trade deficit: A dollar policy for balanced growth

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: President Donald Trump launched a trade war to eliminate the longstanding US trade deficit. But the trade deficit has only grown on his watch because tariffs were the wrong policy choice. Trade deficits are not always a bad thing, but a wealthy country like the United States should not run a perpetual deficit. Decades of US trade deficits have piled up debt that makes future generations of Americans less well off, as they must pay interest and dividends to foreigners. Cheap imports and the decline in exports have also contributed to the loss of a significant number of US manufacturing jobs. The main cause of the deficit is a secular overvaluation of the dollar, driven by excessive financial flows into dollar assets from foreign official and private investors. Although Trump’s policies have failed, achieving balanced trade is not a hopeless quest. President-elect Joseph Biden should direct his Treasury secretary to pursue a more sensible dollar policy that can tame the deficit without violating any international norms or rules.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Currency, and Trade Deficit
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16691. Using purchasing power parities to compare countries: Strengths and shortcomings

Author:: Patrick Honohan
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Good international economic policy requires good comparative data on national economic performance. In May 2020, the World Bank published the latest comprehensive update of purchasing power parities (PPPs), as part of the International Comparison Program. Produced for 176 countries, these PPPs are used to convert data (especially GDP and other quantities based on national income accounts) from national currencies to a common basis in a way that is meaningful for economic analysis. PPP-adjusted data are essential because the distortions caused by sharp exchange rate movements are significant, especially for times of macroeconomic turbulence. The newly released PPP data contain fewer surprises than those published in previous updates and are an invaluable tool, but Honohan explains why PPPs should be used with caution and an understanding of their limitations. Apart from removing distortions caused by market exchange rate movements, PPPs remove the impact of other factors affecting relative prices, especially productivity differences, which Honohan argues should not be removed if one wishes to compare the overall economic size or strength of a country or region. Adjusting for productivity, he finds that the United States retains its position as the world’s largest economy for the time being, and the European Union (even without the United Kingdom) is just ahead of China.
Topic:: World Bank, Economic Growth, Currency, Data, and Productivity
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

16692. China's Financial Opening Accelerates

Author:: Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Despite predictions by some observers that the United States and China are headed for a “decoupling,” China’s integration into global financial markets is accelerating. Regulatory reform has opened China’s financial market to many US and other foreign financial institutions. Foreign ownership of onshore Chinese stocks and bonds is growing rapidly and is likely to continue to expand in 2021. And inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) is on track to hit a new record in 2020. This integration is very asymmetric, however. China retains relatively tight control over both outbound direct investment and outflows of portfolio capital. US efforts to roll back the trend of deepening financial integration by threatening to delist Chinese companies traded on US markets and prohibiting any US investment in 35 Chinese companies that the Department of Defense alleges to be linked to the Chinese military appear to be largely symbolic.
Topic:: Financial Markets, Investment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

16693. Prospects for the Development of EU Health Policy after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Adam Szymański
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed both the weaknesses of Member States’ health systems and the limitations of the EU’s mechanism to respond to cross-border health threats. Strengthening the EU’s resistance to health crises will become an important point in budget negotiations and the deliberations of the planned Conference on the Future of Europe. Although there are some supporters of granting the EU greater powers in this area, the changes will most likely be limited to increasing the resources of European health institutions and improving the mechanisms of cooperation between states in order to better respond to future crises.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, Health Care Policy, Budget, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16694. Chinese Discourse on NATO

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Chinese experts’ interest in NATO has been growing for a year. The reason is the debate on China that began in the Alliance last year. China treats NATO as part of its rivalry with the U.S., vindicated by Chinese analysts’ emphasis on divergences between members, critical assessments of U.S. NATO policy and their conciliatory approach to European members. The continuation of the Alliance debate on China, including recognizing it as a threat, may lead the latter to intensify efforts to widen the divisions and seek closer cooperation with Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, and Alliance
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

16695. Russia’s Arctic Policy

Author:: Agnieszka Legucka
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia views the Arctic as a contested area with the U.S. and a place of competition with China. It regards any loss of its dominant position as the most important challenge in the Arctic region. To counteract it, Russia develops energy, military, and logistics infrastructure in the region. Although the role of transport in the Arctic, along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is limited for now, the increased Russian military presence in the region is already a challenge for the security of NATO countries.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America

16696. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ukraine’s Economy

Author:: Daniel Szeligowski
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Ukrainian economy will face a recession in 2020, the scale of which will depend on the fluid pandemic situation at home and abroad. Macro-financial assistance from the IMF and the EU will be crucial to stabilise the economy. To begin a rapid economic recovery, Ukraine needs structural reforms, but implementation of them is unlikely.
Topic:: Reform, Finance, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

16697. The Impact of COVID-19 on India’s Economy and International Standing

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Despite the government’s restrictive preventive measures, India has emerged as one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, and it has yet to reach the peak of infections. The pandemic has ignited the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history, worsened India’s investment attractiveness, and constrained resources that would otherwise help it pursue a greater international role. The economic crisis also undermines the country’s international image, boosted by the quick and decisive response to the pandemic in its initial phase. At the same time, the economic problems and the continued fight against the pandemic will encourage the authorities to deepen cooperation with the EU in public health, the economy, and security.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

16698. The Pandemic as an Impulse for the Development of New Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: A deep recession is projected for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market for new technologies providing solutions helpful during the health crisis, is developing dynamically. In the medium term, the research and development sector will gain importance and become attractive for investments, also for Polish companies.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Research, Business, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Poland, and Sub-Saharan Africa

16699. Ukrainian Labour Migration to the EU During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Maria Piechowska
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration, more than 5 million of the 42 million citizens of Ukraine remain abroad, the vast majority of them for economic purposes. The most significant direction of Ukrainian labour migration is the European Union. The COVID-19 pandemic has not resulted in massive returns of migrants to Ukraine—only about 10% of those already abroad in February decided to take this step. However, the pandemic made it more difficult for Ukrainians to leave the country in the spring-summer period when the demand for work in EU countries is usually the highest.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

16700. The Assumptions of the New U.S. “Defense Space Strategy”

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In response to the growing threats from China and Russia to U.S. security in space and the increased importance of space infrastructure for its civil and military sectors, American authorities began reorganising the armed forces. This includes adoption of the “Defense Space Strategy”, which places the newest branch of the armed forces—Space Force—in the U.S. defence planning. The strengthening of military cooperation with allies in this area, as declared in the document, is an opportunity for Poland to acquire experience in the protection of satellite systems, which are planned for the needs of the Polish armed forces.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Space
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

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