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16401. Assessment of the effectiveness of the security features of personal wireless networks

Author:
Janusz Gierszewski and Michał Matuśkiewicz
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Wireless network communication standards have become very common due to the huge benefits of their application. The use of radio waves to create networks has reduced infrastructure costs and increased the mobility of devices. The advantages of wireless communication (WLAN) also pose a challenge to the security of transmitted data. However, the use of a wireless signal poses certain threats to network security. The aim of the study was to analyse problems related to the security of WLAN 802.11. and assess its resistance to various attack strategies. It was assumed that wireless networks have an insufficient level of security. The assumed assumption is verifiable due to the ability to monitor events in networks. In order to verify the hypothesis, a number of experiments have been carried out in laboratory conditions, concerning the currently used WLAN protections from the IEEE 802.11 family of standards. The electromagnetic waves used for communication are available to the public at a distance of a few / several dozen metres from the communicating devices. It is easy to monitor air traffic using a network card that operates in monitor mode. The communication itself cannot be secured in any way, so data encryption is one way of secure transmission. During the research, the applied security features were successfully broken with the help of publicly available tools. The obtained results are distinguished by a high level of objectivity and reliability in the assessment of applied wireless network security. It was shown that there are still imperfections in the security and it is possible to break the security measures. The consequences of attacks are very serious and lead to a breach of each of the attributes of secure information. Practice has shown that it is impossible to create a wireless network that is fully secure. The findings of the study should be used to develop methods to improve information security, as well as to raise users’ awareness of existing threats. Not all users of wireless networks are aware of how easy some of the commonly used security features are to break.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, and Networks
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16402. COVID-19 as a prestige-promoting mechanism: PESCO framework as an opportunity for EU member states

Author:
Valerijs Bodnieks and Sintija Broka
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to identify whether PESCO can be one of the tools for future projects in medicine and whether it can be used to strengthen the military medicine of the EU and, simultaneously, be in synergy with the civilian sector by providing support to the civilian field, and, finally, can EU member states increase their prestige through PESCO. The study, which is based on qualitative research methods, shows that based on Latvia’s case, strengthening the medical field by participating in PESCO can lead to countries promoting their prestige on the international stage, as well as strengthening civil-military cooperation to build much stronger policies within the EU member states. Firstly, the findings showed that from all 47 PESCO projects, only two are related to the field of medicine. Secondly, with the whole world being affected by COVID-19, PESCO can be used for new projects related to the field of medicine. Thirdly, different types of projects can be initiated under PESCO, for example, a new kind of transport for evacuation, new types of medical devices, the creation of new regional laboratories and research centres, development of new analytical and biotechnological equipment, improvement of logistic chains, the establishment of unique and specific training institutions for civilian and military medics, and the development and use of robotic technologies or drones. Finally, countries that engage in epidemiological security measures during COVID 19 are clearly enhancing their prestige by not only demonstrating their readiness to react to the current situation, but also by taking practical action.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Realism, COVID-19, and PESCO
Political Geography:
Europe

16403. Fitness OSINT: Identifying and tracking military and security personnel with fitness applications for intelligence gathering purposes

Author:
Cyprian Aleksander Kozera
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the possibility of tracking and identifying military and other security personnel, operating in secretive or restricted areas. Such exposure might have dire consequences from the perspective of counterintelligence or physical security. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Social Media Intelligence methods and techniques were employed to gather and analyse information on security and military personnel and expose their activities on-line. The case studies presented in the article exemplify utilisation of the new “Suunto” fitness application for open-source-based intelligence research. Despite general Operational Security rules that require all personal data such as names, pictures and habits to be kept discreet, open-source based research with one of the most popular fitness applications allowed the identification of military personnel and government agents operating in Afghanistan, Mali, Syria or working at national military facilities. In a single case, it took the author less than thirty minutes to identify personal details of a US Army soldier in Afghanistan and a Special Forces officer in one of the European countries and obtain their home addresses and pictures of them and their families. The results of the research show how OSINT techniques concerning fitness applications are useful both for intelligence and counterintelligence, specifically for malicious and terrorist purposes, and how necessary it is to make fitness and other, supposedly personal, activity private, especially for those who carry out sensitive missions and work in a restricted or secretive environment.
Topic:
Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and OSINT
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Syria, Mali, and Global Focus

16404. Testing the efficiency of laser technology to destroy the rogue drones

Author:
Mohamed Zied Chaari and Somaya Al-Maadeed
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
A large body of research shows the increasing numbers of drones attacks despite RF jammer systems and other technologies. This incredible increase in drone attacks means that the existing solutions are not enough to stop it. The objective of the article is to present a study on the combination of a laser beam with an optical focusing system to create a new cannon to crush rogue drones. The experimental method relies on an innovative design incorporating a laser module and groups of optical lenses to focus the power in one point to carbonize any target. Specifically, it is the laser with an adjustable lens position from 477mm to 617mm to focus the laser beam on the desired distant object. We measured the necessary time to burnt acrylic plastic, wood, and hard carton from a distance of 55 metres. It was noticed that the laser efficiency is proportional to the laser power and time the cannon is turned on. Tests on the laser cannon revealed that laser burner technology can destroy illegal drones. However, it was found that the laser is affected by adverse weather conditions, such as fog, rain, and clouds. Apart from that, the frailty of this technique is connected with the stabilizing system requirements, energy, overheating, and the time needed to destroy an object. Regardless of the drawbacks of the technique, the laser is the only solution with high efficiency that can ruin or intercept autonomously programmed drones, as this cannot be achieved by the RF jammer or any other solutions. The procedure can be repeated with new changeables to achieve a postive result, specifically, the use CO2 laser tube with a high-efficiency chiller to increase the laser power.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Weapons, Drones, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16405. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

16406. Operational control over non-state proxies

Author:
Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The intention of this paper is to clarify how state patrons control non-state proxy forces fighting on their behalf. In order to address the subject matter thoroughly, specific attention was paid to a number of questions including a) the criteria determining patronproxy relations, b) factors influencing the selection process of proxy forces, and c) principles governing the maximisation of potential benefits of using proxies, whilst simultaneously reducing risks and associated costs. The author applied a neo-realistic research paradigm to his work. Patron-proxy relations were presented in the context of the principal-agent theory, as well as through detailed analysis of ongoing scenarios involving Iran and Hezbollah, Russia and the Donbass separatists, Pakistan and Kashmiri militias, the US and Syrian rebels. The essence of war by proxy is to influence the strategic result of an armed conflict without direct, full-scale, military intervention. The use of non-state proxy, external actors is aimed at maximising their political goals and strategic interests whilst maintaining “plausible deniability”. By supporting non-state proxies, indirectly or by providing limited direct assistance, sponsors operate below the threshold of war. Empirical analysis of proxy war cases proves that such models may both guarantee “strategic victory” or become a “double-edged sword”. One of the key challenges for external powers engaged in war by proxy is to avoid unintended consequences (blowback). The author argues that elements such as ideology, ethnicity or religion do not necessarily ensure control over proxies, whilst the range of common goals and interests, and the level of the proxy’s dependency, are crucial.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Special Operations, Proxy War, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16407. “Sweat is invisible in the rain”: Civilian Joint Task Force and counter-insurgency in Borno State, Nigeria

Author:
Seun Bamidele
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Political, ethnic and religious conflict has given rise to insurgency groups employing a variety of strategies worldwide. In Nigeria, civilians in strife-torn Borno State have formed a number of counter-insurgency (COIN) groups, among which the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) has emerged as a major player. The group began in 2009 as a simple call for volunteers, and now numbers over 26 000 men and women. While research has been conducted on other COIN groups, little is known of CJTF. Concerns have been raised about the CJTF metamorphosing into an ethnic militia, accused of human rights abuses, robbery, rape and hooliganism. Despite these reported atrocities, local people support them, regarding them as unsung heroes. The study investigates the group’s potential as a useful counter insurgency measure, using David Galula’s COIN theory to analyse the group’s actions and to contest the dualistic understanding of conventional vs unconventional, local peacebuilding approaches. The study adopts a qualitative, ethnographic methodology, locating the research in the context of global development and security discourse. The study aims to establish the value of the CJTF COIN group, to position unconventional local COIN as a viable complementary to conventional methods and to proffer clues as to how security initiatives may more successfully combat Islamic insurgency in Nigeria. The study employed both primary and secondary data. Field work for the study was carried out for six months between 2018 and 2019 in Maiduguri Metropolis and its environs in Borno State.
Topic:
Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

16408. Countering terrorism in the shadows: The role of private security and military companies

Author:
Iveta Hlouchova
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The article identifies the main features of the PSMCs’ involvement in counterterrorism operations and outlines what their future involvement might look like with its implications for international peace and security. The main methods used to gather data and to draw inferences are a content analysis of relevant primary and secondary sources, and a discourse analysis, used as a method of examining the prevailing discourse surrounding the activities of PSMCs, seeking to understand the level of transparency, accountability and attributability of these actors. So far, the PSMCs’ potential for counterterrorism has not been fully exploited. There are many challenges surrounding the existence and operations of PSMCs, mainly lack of transparency and accountability, the continuous significance of the plausible deniability and political expediency PSMCs provide to nation governments, and an insufficient and inadequate international regulatory and control framework with no sanction or enforcement mechanisms. Most recently, the tendency to re-legitimise PSMCs’ activities can be identified. There will most probably be an expansion of PSMCs’ activities in the near future, as climate change consolidates security as a commodity, not a right. Therefore, there is a renewed urgency for adequate and effective international regulatory and control mechanisms on their activities on the international level.
Topic:
Security, Privatization, Counter-terrorism, Regulation, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16409. Turkey’s approach to proxy war in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The last decade has seen a growing trend towards the use of proxies in the Middle East and North Africa following the outbreak of the Arab Spring. In this context, the issue of Turkey’s approach to proxy war in these regions has received considerable attention since 2016. Thereby, the purpose of this article is to investigate the essential characteristics of Turkish proxy war strategy in Syria and Libya. As such, this study intends to trace the development of Turkish proxy war strategy by making use of the conceptual frameworks proposed by Groh (2019), O’Brien (2012) and Art (1998). The most obvious finding to emerge from the analysis is that Turkey changed its indirect intervention strategy from donated assistance to proxy warfare in Syria and Libya when it saw a greater need to influence the result of the conflicts. In the case of Syria, this study has shown that the controlthrough-centralisation approach towards the Armed Syrian Opposition has enabled Turkey to carry out an effective proxy war strategy from 2016 onwards. In Libya, the results of this investigation have shown that theTurkish Army has pursued a proxy war strategy since Ankara and the Government of National Accord (GNA) signed an agreement on security and military cooperation in December 2019. The article concludes that Turkey has centralised many revolutionary groups under an Islamist-nationalistic vision and partnered them with its own military in order to expand its influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

16410. FARC–Hezbollah: The success of Venezuela–Iran proxy groups and their convergence in the Americas

Author:
Jeferson Guarin P.
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Persistence and adaptation are the main characteristics that have allowed FARC and Hezbollah to become perhaps the most successful proxy groups in recent years. Both Iran and Venezuela have sponsored the military, political and criminal actions of these alleged insurgent organisations. The main objective of this research was to identify and conceptualise the mitotic evolution of FARC and Hezbollah from purely armed organisms into consolidated political organisations in Colombia and Lebanon, and how this evolution has presented a criminal convergence in Venezuela based on drug trafficking and money laundering. This article is based on a comparative case-study of published research papers, documents, and official statements of FARC and Hezbollah, by applying a rational perspective that allows their performance to be deduced. The research results showed a constant mutation of these hybrid threats. Thus, not only was the political and military success of these organisations established but also the strategic support of a criminal dimension which converged in Venezuela, where the FARC drug trafficking and Hezbollah money laundering were amalgamated. Consequently, the investigation exposes the possible consequences of the FARC-Hezbollah criminal convergence in the Americas and its destabilising effects in the next decade.
Topic:
Narcotics Trafficking, Hezbollah, Drugs, FARC, Destabilization, Money Laundering, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Iran, South America, and Venezuela

16411. The Securitisation of Hybrid Warfare through Practices within the Iran-Israel conflict – Israel’s practices for securitising Hezbollah’s Proxy War

Author:
Christian Kaunert and Ori Wertman
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Iran has been waging a hybrid war against Israel since the Islamic revolution of 1979. In an era when conventional wars have given way to a different method, hybrid warfare, the main challenge facing states is how to deal with this new type of security threat. Thus, while states have previously faced security threats from regular enemy states’ armies, nowadays hybrid warfare in which non-state actors play a key role has become a widespread security threat that requires democratic states to use very different strategies and tactics to overcome it. Using securitisation theory, which explores how normal issues transform into security threats, this article analyses how the State of Israel has securitised Iranian hybrid warfare which has been mainly executed through its proxy terror organisations of Hezbollah. It does so by applying a revised version of the Copenhagen School’s securitisation framework, which focuses on security practices and is underpinned by an understanding of security as belonging to a continuum. The proxy terror organisations have moved towards the end point of the continuum, which is characterised by survival, existential threats, and militarisation, albeit without completely reaching the end point.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Hybrid Warfare, Securitization, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

16412. Game of Proxies – Towards a new model of warfare: Experiences from the CAR, Libya, Mali, Syria, and Ukraine

Author:
Cyprian Aleksander Kozera, Paweł Bernat, Cüneyt Gürer, Błażej Popławski, and Mehmet Alper Sözer
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The objective of the study is to carry out a meaningful comparison that demonstrates the similarities and differences of various conflict theatres where proxy forces were employed. The analyses of the discussed cases focused on different aspects of the conflict and nature of the proxy use. The analyses presented on the following pages were conducted on the basis of the literature on the subject, governmental research and reports, and supporting sources reporting recent developments that complemented academic sources. Various non-state actors such as ethnic militias, paramilitary units, and private military companies have become more and more visible on contemporary battlegrounds. Modern states employ those actors to further their objectives, as this limits their own political and financial costs. This increasingly visible phenomenon points to an emerging new model of warfare where state actors are relying ever more on proxies of various character and nature. It is highly likely that any future conflict will be characterised by a proxy-based model of warfare, which will consist of a limited footprint made by regular forces (or none at all) and, consequently, the extended use of proxies supported by special forces. Because such an approach is less costly, proxies will be more often employed by low-budget states, previously reluctant to carry out such costly military endeavours. Denying the actions and affiliations of these proxies will inevitably follow and, in turn, a lack of political accountability and responsibility for the conflict’s outcome.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Conflict, Proxy War, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Mali, and Central African Republic

16413. Towards a structural understanding of powerbrokers in weak states: From militias to alliances

Author:
Sascha Bruchmann
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article aims to contribute to a theoretical understanding and discussion of conflict in weak states. More granular than one at the level of systemic phenomena, this analysis is focused on the actors, and the political structure in weak states. The article aims to improve on efforts to accurately describe these conflicts. After a theoretical introduction, the theorem on powerbroker systems will be applied on the case studies of Afghanistan, Lebanon and Mali. Building on this, the contours of the political system in each case will be highlighted by looking at the very origins of socio-political life. The working hypothesis is that powerbrokers, built on self-governing communities, ally and bandwagon according to Balance of Threat (BoT). This working hypothesis will be tested by examining a derived hypotheses per case study and identifying a) self-rule communities, b) the political-military nexus of powerbrokers within each system, and c) the behaviour of the related BoT alliance. Afghan, Lebanese and Malian powerbrokers all confirm the hypotheses. The powerbrokers originate in a context of self-governing communities trying to maintain their internal autonomy vis-a-vis a more centralised state and world system. During conflict, the communities band together against a perceived external threat, building neo-feudal political-military bodies. Pooling military resources under skilled leadership and privileged access to outside sponsors sparks the birth of a post-conflict politicalmilitary elite. It is beneficial to maintain powerbrokers as they are better suited to distribute resources through patronage at scale. Powerbroker alliances in weak states can be well explained by a theoretical approach based on balance of threat and more research is needed
Topic:
Alliance, Conflict, Militias, Political System, and Powerbrokers
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Lebanon, Mali, and Global Focus

16414. Changing the character of proxy warfare and its consequences for geopolitical relationships

Author:
Zoran Ivanov
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The main purpose of the article is to examine the causal relationship between key elements of the geostrategic environment (i.e. political, military, and technological) and the changes in the characteristics of proxy force. Qualitative data analysis is used to identify the geopolitical environment conditions, actors, and their relationship. The causal analysis between key elements of the geopolitical environment, such as politics, military, and technological, therefore influences how proxy forces change character. The findings imply that the contemporary geopolitical environment is changing the character of the proxies. They can be used as multipurpose forces depending on the desired strategic outcome. The results advocate that proxies have a global reach beyond the traditional battlefield. These capabilities allow proxies to be used in a wide range of political, economic, and military activities, especially in peacetime, and, therefore, influencing, changing, and damaging the state’s mutual relationships. Despite differences between several theoretical perspectives of security theories, many concur on the low desirability of proxy force. The changing characteristics of proxy war allow state and non-state actors to wage war with a minimal use of force, or none at all, beyond the traditional battlefield. Political violence demonstrated through proxy force to fulfil foreign policy goals has become even more violent. In such action, disregarding the sustainable strategic goal can easily damage the state’s international relations and threaten international and regional stability. The overall findings show the urgency for a more holistic approach in the analysis of proxy warfare as part of security studies and military operations.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, State, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16415. Outsourcing warfare: Proxy forces in contemporary armed conflicts

Author:
James K. Wither
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive examination of the different types of armed non-state proxy groups. It discusses their characteristics and sponsorship and how they are employed by states in pursuit of their security and foreign policy objectives. The article also analyses the reasons for the recent increase in the use of proxy forces, including the benefits and risks for states that employ them, as well as the broader impact of proxy forces on the international security environment, including great power competition. Data was collected and analysed from a wide range of secondary source documents. A descriptive, qualitative research methodology was applied to print and on-line publications available from governmental, institutional and academic sources. This involved literature reviews and case studies to provide an in-depth understanding of current thinking on the topic, while also identifying potential areas for further research. The article provides a comprehensive, qualitative analysis of the existing literature and case studies on the topic of proxy forces, which due to the research methodology applied, also relies on the researcher’s judgement, choices and assumptions. Proxy wars will remain the norm for the foreseeable future. Two strategic developments drive this conclusion. Firstly, there is the renewal of great power competition for influence, resources and security, and secondly, the imperative for states to achieve these objectives without employing their military forces in a manner that could cause a major war.
Topic:
Power Politics, Conflict, Strategic Competition, Proxy War, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, and United States of America

16416. Family as a fundamental social unit shaping security culture: Polish realities

Author:
Agnieszka Wioletta Filipek
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The overall goal of the paper is to address the phenomenon of security culture. The conducted research was focused on analysing the possibilities of influencing the shaping of security culture by looking at the role of family. The study is based on a review of theories and published research about security culture and family. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: What is security culture, what elements make up its structure and what role does family play in shaping it? The research methods were based on the classical theoretical methods used in security sciences and included an analysis of literature and scientific articles with the use of synthesis, abstraction and generalisation. Security culture is a category that characterises every security entity. Its structure consists of both basic and detailed elements such as: values, norms, attitudes, actions, cooperation and activity, reasonable openness, wise trust and risk. Based on the literature research, it can be stated that the basic outline of security culture is shaped during childhood and school years. It is shaped mainly in the family and in educational institutions. The research shows that the high level and appropriate nature of security culture can have a positive impact on the security of subjects and their environment, while the unfavourable form of security culture will have the opposite effect. The conducted research reveals that the role of the family in shaping security culture among children is indisputable and very significant and it should not be overestimated.
Topic:
Security, Values, Family, Norms, and Attitudes
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Poland

16417. The rules and organisation of air traffic at airstrips during military operations: Based on experience gained on missions in Chad and Afghanistan

Author:
Rafał Zajkowski
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of the article is to present the characteristics of airstrips used by Polish and allied aircraft during military operations in Chad and Afghanistan. The main goal is to examine their organisation and the management of air traffic by Polish ATC staff as well as to answer the question: How did Polish controllers plan the air operation? Answers to this question were sought through empirical and theoretical research. The theoretical methods were a study of literature (analysis, synthesis, abstraction, generalisation, interpretation, analogy and comparison). The empirical method – “opinion poll” took the leading role, which used different techniques conducted in a tested environment to gather the data (interviews with experts and an ex post facto experiment). Consequently, the article looks at the method of planning and preparing air operations and the rules of air traffic organisation in the area of responsibility of Polish controllers. The selected issues discussed herein include the rules of airspace segmentation, the adopted air traffic control solutions and the landing zone infrastructure used. All in all, the experience discussed herein constitutes valuable information regarding air traffic security and may prove helpful in organising landing zones and preparing air personnel for future operations conducted by Polish and allied Military Contingents at home and abroad.
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, and Air Force
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, and Chad

16418. Compulsory military service as a social integrator

Author:
Ronen Itsik
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Compulsory military service has become very rare over the last 30 years, in the western world. In the past, most countries considered military service as a socialisation platform, given the fact that most of the population was recruited and military units were a "meeting point" for different cultures – because of that the service then was functional as a social integrator. The current research studied changes in social attitude during compulsory military service in Israel, where the society is considered to be essentially divided around ethnical and national issues. This study is based on an analysis of the attitudes of 3200 internet questionnaire participants via social networks in Israel, followed by a U-test of the collected data. Half of the participants were high-school students (average age 17) and half of them discharged soldiers (average age 23). Analysis of the results reveals significant evidence: discharged soldiers tend to be more tolerant then high-school students with regard to other cultures and ethnic origins. A discharged IDF soldier is less afraid of security threats and considers budget prioritisation towards social welfare to be more important than security challenges. These findings show that compulsory military service can still be effective as a social integrator, even in the post-modern world where countries are dealing with migration issues and ethno-national tensions.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Army, Conscription, and Social Integration
Political Geography:
Israel and Global Focus

16419. The roots of armed conflicts: Multilevel security perspective

Author:
Marzena Zakowska
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to indicate the roots of armed conflicts based on an analysis of a variety of theoretical approaches. The methodological framework for this research is Kenneth Waltz’s concept of analytical levels’ causes of armed conflicts: (1) the level of individual; (2) the level of the state; (3) the level of the international system. The armed conflicts are also generated by the nature of state regime and society, security dilemma mechanism, diversity between economic development, and rapidly growing population. The anarchy of the international system causes war, particularly due to the imbalance of power, power transition, challenging the hegemonic state by a rising power. The author presents a proposition of systematizing roots of armed conflicts and highlight the need for starting a discussion about developing approaches for the analysis of the roots of modern armed conflicts. The author highlights the need for starting a discussion about developing approaches for the analysis of the roots of modern armed conflicts. The starting point for discussion is introduced the concept of primary and supplementary approaches.
Topic:
State, Armed Conflict, International System, and Individual
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16420. Russian information offensive in the international relations

Author:
Ryszard Szpyra
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The information war is beginning to play a dominant role in international relations. It is important because it occurs intensively in peacetime and determines the results of international clashes. This article aims to identify offensive elements in Russian theoretical and doctrinal views on the role and content of the information offensive in international relations. To meet this aim, a comparative analysis of research studies, documents and official statements was carried out. The study sets out to investigate how Russia assesses the usefulness of the information offensive for conducting international policy. The study revealed that the information war and information warfare in modern conditions in the Russian scientific debate occupy a prominent place. Regardless of the declared defensive nature of the Russian information offensive, both the scientific and doctrinal views emphasise the value of the information offensive for conducting international policy. Russia takes the information offensive in international relations very seriously and treats it as one of the main forms of international confrontation. This has serious consequences for countries close to Russia as it creates a new threat to their national security in peacetime
Topic:
International Relations, National Security, Disinformation, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia

16421. Willingness to defend one’s country and to resist in the Baltic states

Author:
Māris Andžāns and Andris Spruds
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article addresses the question of willingness to defend one’s own country and a similar notion of resistance, should Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia be attacked. The study principally relies on quantitative data from a dedicated nationally representative survey across all three countries. The data acquired thereof reaffirm findings from previous studies concluding that the highest level of willingness to defend one’s own country is in Estonia, while it is lower in Latvia and in Lithuania. Asked if and how respondents would resist in case of an attack, more willingness to resist either non-violently or violently was expressed by respondents in Lithuania, ahead of the number of willing to do so in Estonia and more so in Latvia. Demographic background of the respondents visualized and discussed in the article provides further nuances of both research questions. While situation with the willingness to defend Estonia is relatively comfortable, this should not be treated as a reason for complacency. There is still room for progress within some groups of the society. Meanwhile, valuable lessons could be drawn for policies of Latvia and more so of Lithuania to avert some of the less flattery trends identified in this study.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Resistance, and Collective Defense
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

16422. Cloud system in digital human resources management in Turkey

Author:
Serap Ergen
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
With the changing technology, humanity has reached Industry 4.0 starting from the steam engine. With these developments, human resources in the organisations need to store and process data. A new application that enables digital human resources to easily access its data is cloud computing. The aim of this article is analyse how cloud technologies affect human resources management in Turkey. A descriptive method was used in this paper to explain the concept of digitalism in the discussed area and analyse the relationship between cloud system and digital human resources management. Data was drawn from the scientific and professional literature documents on this subject. Many organisations do not have enough knowledge about cloud computing in Turkey. There are also concerns about cloud systems security and economic equilibrium of companies. It is predicted that companies that adopt this technology will have a more efficient and comfortable human resources process and become more prosperous. Organisations should work for the development of human resources management system by digitising it. Organisations whose number of employees is increasing day by day, face problems, but they can handle this situation through the careful implementation of cloud computing. Cloud systems provide organisations with benefits such as storage capacity and easy access to data anytime and anywhere.
Topic:
Industry, Human Resources, Digital Policy, and Cloud Computing
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

16423. Values and norms of behaviour in the life of cadets

Author:
Kamil Dziwanowski
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to analyse the meaning, role and place of values in the life of a soldier. Furthermore, the article explores the issues of soldiers’ ethical standards and types of behaviour which can be found in the modern army. It outlines that they are strongly influenced by the local culture. As a result of everyday performance, every individual makes assessments, i.e. formulates different opinions according to a specific criterion and assigns them a significant place in the hierarchy of values. In the light of this theory, the article examines the hierarchy of values and the norms of behaviour that occur in the lives of cadets. The paper uses The Rokeach Value Survey as well as The Kruskal–Wallis test by ranks. Using these two methods, the author analyses his own questionnaires to compare the value system of Polish Air Force University students. The main findings state that cadets have a permanent system of values. Moreover, they share similar judgments concerning different behaviour. Regardless of the course year, goals and values related to their homeland and family seem to be of the greatest importance. The overall findings of the paper show a great number of similarities in the cadets’ value system. It is recommended that the future research should focus on examining students of other Polish military universities in order to check if they respond differently. The results obtained may be helpful in the process of young soldiers’ upbringings taking into consideration the moral figure among military school graduates.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Values, and Norms
Political Geography:
Poland

16424. Operation “Olympic Games.” Cyber-sabotage as a tool of American intelligence aimed at counteracting the development of Iran’s nuclear programme

Author:
Mariusz Antoni Kamiński
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The purpose of the article is to analyse Operation “Olympic Games” including, in particular, to indicate the political background to the activities aimed at preventing the development of Iran’s nuclear programme, and to examine the preparation and conduct of the operation, the involvement of the US and Israeli intelligence services, and the use of intelligence methods and sources. An equally important objective is to indicate the real consequences of the cyberattack with the Stuxnet virus. In the research process, a critical analysis of literature in the field of Intelligence Studies and source materials (including legal acts, strategies, reports, and other official studies of the entities forming the US Intelligence Community) was carried out. The example of Operation Olympics Games shows that complex cyber-sabotage operations resulting in the destruction of critical infrastructure on a large scale require the involvement of numerous state resources and advanced cyber activities, and the use of many different methods and intelligence sources. Thus, strong states with well-developed intelligence capabilities are much more capable of effectively using cyber-sabotage on a large scale.
Topic:
Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Cyberspace, and Sabotage
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

16425. Operations in subterranean systems: Terrain and weather variable

Author:
José Paulo Silva Bartolomeu
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The overall objective of the research is to summarize tactical considerations, resulting from terrain and weather analysis, to support the preparation, planning and execution of subterranean operations. The study used the Grounded Theory for collection, analysis, and systematic treatment of data. The main data sources for the study consisted of purposive sampling from operations in subterranean systems and lessons learned from them. Two new sub-variables are now proposed to be included in terrain and weather variable from mission analysis model for subterranean operations: Subterranean system’s location and accesses and subterranean system features. The key to finding subterranean systems is through terrain analysis, physical ground search, operational indicators, and intelligence products. The analysis of the features of the subterranean system and its mapping is critical for developing courses of action. Forces must be trained and equipped to manoeuvre and combat at short distances and poor visibility conditions. Surface access points and command and control bunkers usually are assessed as key terrain. Obstacles placed at intersections are excellent ambush sites. Accessing sophisticated structures requires specific techniques and equipment. Inside the subterranean systems, existing angles, barriers, walls, cavities, stairwells and other objects provide cover and concealment. Water can make it impossible to build subterranean systems, place obstacles, or even use them; droughts can “create” new avenues of approach. Clouds and fog difficult the detection of subterranean systems. The terrain and weather analysis model, the characteristics, and the tactical considerations presented, all combined, support the preparation, planning, and execution of operations in subterranean systems.
Topic:
Weather, Terrain, Subterranean, and Military Tactics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16426. The future of energy security of states

Author:
Jarosław Gryz
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The work focuses on the controversy about technological progress and unlimited access to all kinds of energy acquisition, storage and distribution. It suggests a formula for energy acquisition and usage which embraces issues of peace and war, social conflicts, and stability determined by access to energy conditioned by the state of the climate of our planet. The question is how will an interdisciplinary combination of progress and future implementation of technologies influence energy security of states and social entities, their natural environment, up to 2030 and beyond? The methods used in the work rely on a non – linear approach to disruptive technologies combined with empirical verifiability of scientific progress in the field of energy acquisition and use. They are reinforced with drivers taken from development scenarios gained through technological development in quantum mechanics, molecular biology, and computational techniques. The result is a conceptual approach to energy acquisition and distribution for states, their communities and individuals regardless of whether the technologies are “civil” or “military” in their essence. The recalled disruptive technologies shape factors of social development and create conditions for human existence and the natural environment that influence the security of states and social entities. The development of automation and robotics, digital transformation, bio-technologies and cognitive science creates new energy security for states, social entities and the natural environment. Technologies for the generation, processing and distribution of energy create an almost unlimited perspective of reconfiguration of existing forms of life and their safety.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and State
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16427. Participation of V4 countries in African peacekeeping missions

Author:
János Besenyő
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The article explores the peacekeeping activities of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia and the characteristics of their activities on the African continent. The paper examines the African peacekeeping missions carried out by Visegrád countries. The study uses comparative scientific literature and analysis of statements released by these governments and other papers and studies related to the African peacekeeping missions. In addition, I used my own experience from my previous African peacekeeping/peace support missions, and the lessons learned from other African operations published in my previous book about Hungarian peacekeeping missions. In summary, of the Visegrád states with differing levels of training and equipment, Poland was the most active in peace operations in Africa and in the lead, followed by the Czech Republic and Hungary, while Slovakia was the least involved in the African continent. This trend is, moreover, in line with the involvement of the above countries in Africa to date. Although these states cooperate in several areas, this is not the case for African peace operations, although cooperation in this area would be important. The research examines the background to the activities of the V4 countries in peace operations in Africa. The study is particularly important in view of the fact that, for a number of reasons (migration, terrorism), the V4 countries are preparing for greater engagement in Africa, one area of which is peace-support operations.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

16428. Defending the Right to Health in Guatemala: Reflections of Two Indigenous Women on the Frontlines

Author:
Benilda Batzin, Paulina Culum, and Julia Fischer-Mackey
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
The Guatemalan Constitution guarantees the right to health for all Guatemalans, but indigenous citizens face multiple barriers in accessing public health services. In addition to the transportation challenges and under-resourced facilities faced by rural communities around the world, indigenous Guatemalans face racial and linguistic discrimination and corrupt officials demanding fees for free public services. Two organizations that formed to combat these problems are the Center for the Study of Equity and Governance in Health Systems (Centro de Estudios para la Equidad y Gobernanza en los Sistemas de Salud, or CEGSS) and the Network of Community Defenders of the Right to Health (Red de Defensores y Defensoras Comunitarios por el Derecho a la Salud, or REDC-Salud). REDC-Salud volunteer health defenders educate citizens about their rights, provide accompaniment to patients, monitor health services, and advocate for health system improvements. The CEGSS team provides technical support and capacity building to REDC-Salud members and coordinates monitoring and advocacy at the municipal, departmental and national levels. In the following interview excerpts, Benilda Batzin of CEGSS and Paulina Culum of REDC-Salud describe how they work together to make government health systems more accountable to all citizens. Benilda and Paulina’s unique approach involves mobilizing established community leaders to engage on health access issues at multiple levels of government and forming alliances with groups including the national Human Rights Ombuds. As Maya Tz’utujil women from Sololá, Western Guatemala, Benilda and Paulina faced multiple barriers to civic participation and leadership. And yet, their commitment to bringing positive change to their communities have led them to initiate and join organizations and acquire new skills. Those skills and leadership qualities have been widely recognized and resulted in formal and informal opportunities to lead: Benilda was elected by her colleagues to become Executive Director of CEGSS and was invited to give testimony at the United Nations General Assembly; Paulina chairs her town’s Community Development Council, has served as the national chairperson for the Tz’utujil Women’s Organization and mentors young female activists. This Note highlights strategies and accomplishments of these leaders and their organizations while reminding us of the work yet to be done by activists and their allies to defend the rights of all Guatemalans.
Topic:
Women, Accountability, Indigenous, Public Health, Community Engagement, and Activism
Political Geography:
Central America and Guatemala

16429. From Peoples' Struggles to Public Policy: The Institutionalization of the Bhilwara Framework of Social Accountability in India

Author:
Rakshita Swamy and Aruna Roy
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
This Accountability Note describes and explains a set of principles for social accountability that emerged out of the struggles of some of the most marginalized people in India. Although firmly rooted in the experience of local resistance, the Bhilwara Framework of Social Accountability speaks directly to national and global struggles for accountability. The essential elements of the Bhilwara Framework were first framed by Dalit activists fighting discrimination and structural injustice, who reflected on and theorized about the causes of their marginalization. These elements were then accepted, developed further, and disseminated by activists and social movements. This Note discusses the social origins of the Bhilwara Framework and explains how each of the six principles was derived and applied. The principles include: 1. Access to meaningful and usable information; 2. The formal registration of citizen grievances; 3. The need for time-bound inquiry processes; 4. Platforms for citizen participation; 5. Protection of complainants against reprisal; and 6. Public and collective spaces in which citizens can dialogue with their state. This Note also describes how the Framework was refined and expanded, and how it was consequently institutionalized within the state. Unlike most activists’ agendas, the Bhilwara Framework has made the transition from concept to policy. India’s Supreme Audit Institution and Comptroller and Auditor General used the Bhilwara Framework to develop a set of minimum standards for social audits. The Framework has also been used to frame state and national policies on accountability for social justice and security for Dalits, rights holders accessing their entitlements under the right to work, food security, education, etc., urban poor workers, and other marginalized groups. It also informs an ongoing attempt to draft a legal framework for accountability by the Rajasthan State Government, a fitting tribute to where the struggle for these principles began. The Framework has helped define and develop the practice of ‘independent facilitation,’ which refers to the efforts made by the State to provide institutionalized platforms, institutions, and processes for enabling citizens to hold the State to account, that are independent of the latter’s control and interests. Similar breakthroughs have been made in contemporary grievance redress reforms. Recognizing that complainants will face difficulty and perhaps intimidation while registering a grievance at the very office that is the cause of the grievance, the Bihar Public Grievance Redress Law mandates Information and Facilitation Centers to provide single window support centers for information, to register grievances and track their status, an independent officer to hear appeals, and a wide scope in the definition of a complaint. The Framework served as the point of reference for State and civil society jointly building the country’s first web portal for mandatory disclosure of information (the Jan Soochna Portal). It has played an instrumental role in forming the basis of wider conceptions of social audits in tribal autonomous regions, labor welfare schemes and corrective or rehabilitation institutions run by the State. These interconnected efforts have emerged from concerted grassroots struggles and refined by social movements and ordinary citizens and users of India’s various rights-based legislation. These essential struggles deepen social accountability strategies, rooting them firmly in social justice and participatory democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Social Justice, Accountability, Institutions, Marginalization, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16430. Citizen Participation in Latin America’s Supreme Audit Institutions: Progress or Impasse?

Author:
Marcos Mendiburu
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
The notion of citizen participation in external audit processes dates back to the end of the 20th century. A few declarations of the General Assembly of the Organization of Latin American and Caribbean Supreme Audit Institutions (OLACEFS) and the work of its Citizen Participation Commission (CPC) have contributed to its conceptualization and recognition, encouraging the work of Supreme Audit Institutions (SAI) around this theme. This has been reflected in the institutional strategic plans and annual reports of a set of SAIs in the region. Therefore, the current debate now goes beyond whether citizen participation in the audit process is necessary and why. After more than two decades since the first reference to citizen participation in external auditing in a statement from the OLACEFS General Assembly, the question is how much and in which way SAIs’ promotion of citizen participation has made progress, and what are the results to date. That is to say, the question currently centers around the scope and depth of such citizen participation. Based on in-depth interviews and desk-review, as well as submitting requests for information, the analysis shows that the incorporation of the term “citizen participation” as an ingredient for audit process has advanced at a faster rate than its implementation. The implementation of citizen participation varies significantly among SAIs in the region in terms of its scope and depth. In many cases, it is still limited to a bounded exercise—generally a particular type of practice and/or to promoting participation during a specific phase of the audit cycle. Nonetheless, there is no evidence of the existence of a meaningful strategy—with specific objectives, instruments and results indicators—for citizen participation linked to broader organizational and learning processes within SAIs, nor a profound transformation in the exercise of audits. For this reason, after 20 years, it is worth considering whether progress is really being made, or there is an impasse in addressing citizen participation by SAIs in the region. In terms of the scope of citizen participation in oversight in the audit cycle, with exceptions, there is a significant deficit of practices and experiences of participation in SAIs during the phase of executing audits and following up on the findings and recommendations issued by SAIs. Regarding the depth of citizen participation in audits, there is an emphasis on the use of citizen complaints or channels for denunciations [although evaluations of its effectiveness are lacking] as well as dissemination of audit reports, followed by public awareness or training. However, according to the maturity model on citizen participation proposed by the Declaration of the OLACEFS General Assembly of Punta Cana in 2016, the practice of citizen complaints is associated with its most basic level of citizen participation. Furthermore, SAIs tend to promote consultative practices rather than collaborative practices, unlike other innovative spaces for participation, such as the Open Government Partnership. Finally, the number of SAIs that use new information and communication technologies for participation and collaboration with citizens is limited—beyond the use of online complaint systems and social media for communicating SAI work. For this reason, the question arises as to how far SAIs are adapting to the latest innovations and changes in citizen participation. This working paper provides an overview of citizen participation in external auditing in Latin America. After the introduction, Chapter 2 presents a synthesis of the evolution on citizen participation within the OLACEFS, as well as the progress observed in SAIs in the region. Chapter 3 proposes an analytical framework on citizen participation in auditing based on two dimensions: its scope and depth. Chapter 4 examines a set of SAI citizen participation practices in the region according to the four-level classification (basic / low / intermediate and advanced) proposed in the OLACEFS Declaration of Punta Cana. Chapter 5 analyzes a couple of practices and experiences of citizen participation in auditing due to its degree of institutionalization: participatory planning in the annual audit program of Argentina’s General Audit Office and the articulated audit at the General Comptroller Office of Colombia. Chapter 6 delves into the citizen participation policy of the General Comptroller Office of Colombia. Finally, the conclusion highlights some findings and recommendations for the future. As a result of the analysis undertaken, this study recommends that the OLACEFS’ Citizen Participation Commission promote an evaluation of the extent of citizen participation in each SAI according to its proposed levels of maturity, and that each SAI publicly reports on the effectiveness of the practices implemented (including the SAI’s responsiveness) as well as the impact of such citizen participation on external auditing. Brendan Halloran of the International Budget Partnership contributes a preface that frames citizen engagement with Supreme Audit Institutions in the broader context of accountability ecosystems. This study was commissioned by ControlaTuGobierno and ARC as a background study for the International Seminar on Citizen Participation and Oversight, held Sept. 2-4, 2020 with governmental and civil society participants from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia Mexico and Peru. https://fiscalizacion2020.mx/
Topic:
Accountability, Transparency, Participation, and Audit
Political Geography:
Latin America

16431. Picturing Accountability: What We Learned from the Photography of the Rana Plaza Disaster

Author:
Ismail Ferdous and Naomi Hossain
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Visual evidence can be a powerful part of strategies for pursuing accountability and social justice, and with the means of recording and viewing images now literally in our hands, we are becoming ever more sophisticated makers and users of visual evidence. This essay examines the role of photography in creating visual evidence in support of struggles for accountability. It draws on one photojournalist’s experience of photographing one of the worst indus­trial accidents in world history, the collapse of the Rana Plaza factory in Bangladesh in 2013, as well as its aftermath in the lives of those affected. Visual evidence frames accountability demands because it can produce powerful emotional and moral responses to social injustice, as was seen in the response to the video of George Floyd’s murder; these responses make it possible to build solidarity across groups and geographies, as the Black Lives Matter movement showed. Yet activists have often struggled with precisely the problem of how to use images of pain and suffering, for fear of further victimizing their subjects or of inuring viewers to such images through their overuse or abuse. These are some of the thorny questions addressed here. Among the key themes of this paper is that it matters not only what the images depict, but why they were produced, and by whom. Images that promote accountability through solidarity are not (just) digital commodities to be circulated to support a particular struggle; they are a form of testimony or witnessing that is rooted in fellowship and humanitarian principles. Yet while visual evidence can help frame and amplify accountability demands, pictures are rarely enough to hold the powerful to account. Bangladeshi garments workers have continued to face violations of their labor rights, despite a series of efforts to improve factory safety by governments, trade unions, and firms since Rana Plaza. Most recently, workers and local firms have struggled to get paid for clothes they have already produced, as international brands have refused to pay up at a time when the COVID19 pandemic has led to economic crisis and falling fashion sales. Images of clothing labels in the rubble of Rana Plaza fingered the brands involved in sourcing garments in the unsafe building, and in so doing may have tarnished their reputations briefly; but they had no lasting impacts on those firms’ legal liability or profitability. Visual evidence plays its main role in framing the demands for accountability, we argue, by identifying and allocating responsibility, making plain the scale or severity of the human costs for failures, and by raising awareness and questions about how systems fail and who pays the price. Pictures allow us to see the human face of the tragedy and to remember the need for change. Pictures also let us see garments workers as they organize and fight for their rights, reminding us that they are not helpless victims, but agents of their own empow­erment, despite the (visibly) great odds against them. Based on the analysis here, a collaboration between a photojournalist who photographed Rana Plaza and a researcher who studied the disaster, we propose that accountability research could usefully pay more attention to the visual, artistic and cultural repertoires so often involved in accountability struggles. There is much to learn about how visual repertoires have been deployed. Those who commission photography in the pursuit of social justice could valuably strengthen their relationships with visual activists and photographers, helping them build sustained engagement with frontline actors. Popular music, street art and video all appear to have had powerful framing and norm-shifting impacts in accountability struggles; in part this paper is a call for the transparency, participation, and accountability field to invest in better understanding of how visual evidence works in accountability struggles, and how it might empower those facing powerful opponents. The ethics and politics of visual evidence are shifting fast with the social media age. Among the themes we address here are: how can activists on the frontlines of struggles for accountabil­ity navigate this terrain? What principles and practices are important?
Topic:
Accountability, Disaster Management, and Photography
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

16432. Pugwash Note on the Iran Nuclear Agreement and Middle Eastern Security

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
This is a very short note addressing the issue of the Iran nuclear agreement and pointing out some key issues that are relevant to enhancing Middle Eastern security.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

16433. A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Turkey’s Economy and a Policy Alternative to Protect Labor Incomes

Author:
Ebru Voyvoda and Erinc Yeldan
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is being experienced as a multidimensional systemic crisis based on the simultaneous manifestations of the supply, demand, and financial shocks. These effects have already been realized in the exacerbation of deep inequalities in income distribution, in functional, regional, and gender terms; in access to public services that are commercialized; and therefore, in an environment where poverty is experienced with social exclusion due to severe inequalities of income. The crisis has hit the Turkish economy under a conjuncture where the adverse effects of the 2018 financial turbulence have not yet been alleviated, and the macroeconomic balances have not been resolved in a sustained fashion. Turkey has displayed already high rates of unemployment (at the rate of 13.6%) and inflation (11%) by the end of 2019. Projections by the IMF also reveal that as a result of the economic measures of isolation and employment disruption, Turkey’s GDP will likely contract by 5% in 2020. Given this background, our aim in this study is to analyze the upon-impact effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on Turkish economy and to investigate policy alternatives that can be implemented against these impacts. We utilize a macroeconomic applied general equilibrium model designed for this purpose; and examine the effects of the crisis conjuncture caused by the COVID-19 outbreak on sectoral production, employment, wages, and capital revenues, national income, and foreign trade balances. Then, we provide an analysis of defensive policies that can be developed against the crisis.
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, Economy, Finance outlook, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

16434. Potential Reserve Army and Diverging Paths of Transition in Former State Socialist Economies

Author:
Zhun Xu
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Since the rise of neoliberalism in the world in the last quarter of the 20th century, many former state socialist economies also started their transition into different kinds of market economic models. Over the course of the last three decades or so, there emerged distinct paths of transition among these economies. This paper proposes a Marxian framework to help understand the three major models of transitions among former socialist economies: the Russian path, the Chinese path, and the Cuban/North Korean path. The framework focuses on the differences in working class composition and in particular the size of the potential reserve army in these socialist economies. An examination of the historical process of market reforms in former state socialist economies suggests that a sizable potential reserve army could give rise to a gradual approach to neoliberal transition while a negligible potential reserve army could lead to either a shock therapy or a long impasse.
Topic:
Political Economy, Neoliberalism, Socialism, and Market Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North Korea, and Cuba

16435. How Race and Gender Shape COVID-19 Unemployment Probability

Author:
Armagan Gezici and Ozge Ozay
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Using the April 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) micro dataset, we explore the racialized and gendered effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the probability of being unemployed. The distribution of job losses from COVID-19 for women and men or for different racial/ethnic categories has been studied in the recent literature. We contribute to this literature by providing the first intersectional analysis of unemployment under COVID-19, where we examine the differences in the likelihood of unemployment across groups of White men, White women, Black men, Black women, Hispanic men and Hispanic women. Controlling for individual characteristics such as education and age, as well as industry and occupation effects, we show that women of all three racial/ethnic categories are more likely to be unemployed compared to men, yet there are substantial differences across these groups based on different unemployment measures. Hispanic women have the highest likelihood of being unemployed, followed by Black women, who are still more likely to be unemployed than White women. We also examine if ability to work from home has benefited any particular group in terms of lowering their likelihood of unemployment during the pandemic. We find that in industries with a high degree of teleworkable jobs, White women, Black men and Hispanic men are no longer more likely to be unemployed relative to White men. However, Black women and Hispanic Women still experience a significantly higher probability of losing their jobs compared to White men even if they are employed in industries with highly teleworkable jobs. As we control for both individual and aggregate factors, our results suggest that these differences are not simply the result of overrepresentation of women of color in certain industries and occupations; rather, unobservable factors such as discrimination could be at work.
Topic:
Race, Minorities, Unemployment, COVID-19, and Gender
Political Geography:
United States of America

16436. The State's Response to the Crisis of Neoliberalism: A Comparison of the Net Social Wage in China and the United States, 1992-2017

Author:
Katherine Moos and Hao Qi
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
We compare the welfare states and taxation regimes of the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States, from 1992 to 2017. We begin with a comparison of each country’s net social wage—that is, the difference between total benefits received by and taxes paid by labor—using two established methods. While the net social wage in the two countries exhibited similar trends, the increasing net social wage has distinctly different implications in the two countries due to their specific historical trajectories in the neoliberal era. In the US, the increasing net social wage reflects an ambivalent and reluctant response to workers’ social reproduction. In China, it reflects institutional changes in the welfare state, which we interpret as the Chinese state’s attempt to resolve the social-reproduction crisis caused by neoliberal reforms of the 1990s.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economy, Neoliberalism, Crisis Management, and Welfare
Political Geography:
China and United States of America

16437. Beyond the Coronavirus: Understanding Crises of Social Reproduction

Author:
Smriti Rao
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
From a feminist political economy perspective, the unfolding of the Coronavirus is a further reminder of the fundamental contradiction between a capitalist system that prioritizes profits, and a feminist ethic that prioritizes life-making or social reproduction. This paper argues for a more systematic understanding of crises of social reproduction under capitalism, stressing the difference between such crises for labour, and those for capital. The Coronavirus crisis represents an extraordinary example of a crisis of social reproduction for capital, but this paper examines crises of social reproduction for capital and labour that arise from the more ordinary workings of capitalism. The paper focusses on the unfolding of such crises in the global South, using the case of India to illustrate the usefulness of such an analysis.
Topic:
Capitalism, Feminism, COVID-19, and Social Reproduction
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16438. The Janus Faces of Money, Property, and Governance: Fiscal Finance, Empire, and Race

Author:
Jamee K. Moudud
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper contributes to the literature on racial capitalism by deploying a key insight of the Law and Political Economy tradition, which is that politics acting through the law plays a constitutive role in the monetary hardwiring of economies and their property rights. By focusing on two key elements of fiscal finance, central banking and taxation, the paper shows that while the pressures of democratic self-governance created one type of hardwiring in Britain and its white dominions racialized politics created a different type in the colonies of color. In short, the particular monetary hardwiring of the colonies of color effectively “kicked away the ladder” needed for their successful socio-economic development, occluding the very different policies pursued in Britain and the dominions. This left the colonies of color in a vulnerable state at independence, providing much weaker foundations for their subsequent economic development. Given the key role played by gold in the anchoring of banknote emissions by the Bank of England (BoE) Britain’s global politics of gold and silver was central to its domestic economic development. And the BoE, a private joint-stock corporation, was deeply enmeshed in the government’s domestic and colonial governance policies. As with the BoE taxation systems domestically and internationally exemplified the same principle: private property was always embedded in the public sphere following different modes of governance in different historic and geographic contexts. Simply put, politics acting through the law was actively creating markets in different ways rather than protecting pre-existing and privately-created ones.
Topic:
Political Economy, Race, Governance, Capitalism, Empire, Money, and Property
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16439. Gender and Work Patterns in Indian Cities: A Socio-Spatial Analysis

Author:
Vamsi Vakulabharanam and Sripad Motiram
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Using an original household survey conducted in Hyderabad and Mumbai that identifies intracity spatial coordinates of residents, we present a socio-spatial analysis of gender and paid work. We show that the ease of movement through the city, allocation of care work related considerations and educational attainment are all crucial to understanding the labor force participation patterns of urban women. A gender lens identifies key facets of access and mobility characterizing urbanization in developing countries. Spatial heterogeneity of residence has very different outcomes for the labor force participation of women and men.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Women, Work Culture, Cities, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16440. Low-Carbon Transition Risks for Finance

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk, Emanuele Campiglio, and Neil Edwards
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The transition to a low‐carbon economy will entail a large‐scale structural change. Some industries will have to expand their relative economic weight, while other industries, especially those directly linked to fossil fuel production and consumption, will have to decline. Such a systemic shift may have major repercussions on the stability of financial systems, via abrupt asset revaluations, defaults on debt, and the creation of bubbles in rising industries. Studies on previous industrial transitions have shed light on the financial transition risks originating from rapidly rising “sunrise” industries. In contrast, a similar conceptual understanding of risks from declining “sunset” industries is currently lacking. We substantiate this claim with a critical review of the conceptual and historical literature, which also shows that most literature either examines structural change in the real economy, or risks to financial stability, but rarely both together. We contribute to filling this research gap by developing a consistent theoretical framework of the drivers, transmission channels, and impacts of the phase‐out of carbon‐intensive industries on the financial system and on the feedback from the financial system into the rest of the economy. We also review the state of play of policy aiming to protect the financial system from transition risks and spell out research implications.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Economy, Risk, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Financial Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16441. Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Paternalism, and the ‘Ben Bernanke Problem’

Author:
George DeMartino
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
A widely held principle in professional ethics, across the professions, is the duty to speak truthfully when engaging in professional activity. Expert truth-telling has come to be recognized as vital to the Kantian respect that is due to clients and others who must act based on professional advice; and to the imperative to sustain trust. It is therefore notable that economics does not generally require truth telling among its members. Against truth telling, in cases where what an economist says can impact social welfare, the profession tends toward “prosocial lying”—lying that is thought to be in society’s best interests. The case of central banker statements is paradigmatic. Would economists have preferred that Ben Bernanke tell the truth about the threats to the US and world economy in the early days of the crisis of 2008, when doing so might have destabilized financial markets further? But prosocial lying comes at a cost to the profession, and to society. Not least, prosocial lying reflects a paternalistic ethos that has by now been challenged in other professions; and the prevalence of prosocial lying may undermine trust—both among economists, and between economists and those economists purport to serve.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economy, and Paternalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16442. The Status of Erbil-Baghdad Relations

Author:
Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
In Iraq, politics is personal, and the politics of Baghdad-Erbil relations is no exception. Improvements and deteriorations in this relationship have largely been dictated by interpersonal dynamics, such as the rapport and mutual confidence between leaders. In May 2020, the Kurdistan Region’s major political parties played an unusually decisive role in having Mustafa Al-Kadhimi selected as the Prime Minister (PM) of Iraq. The Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan declared their support for his designation before he was officially nominated by the Iraqi President, Barham Salih. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leaders knew Al-Kadhimi personally and had enjoyed good working relations with him when he was the chief of intelligence. Importantly, they believed that demonstrating early support was a worthwhile investment that could help to extend the period of tension-free engagement between Erbil and Baghdad, similar to what they experienced with Al-Kadhimi’s predecessor, Adil Abdul Mahdi. After a period of frozen relations that followed the Kurdish referendum for independence in September 2017, Erbil-Baghdad relations regained a degree of normality in the run up to the 2018 elections and were further bolstered by the appointment of Adil Abdul Mahdi, a personal friend and close associate of many KRG leaders. In 2019, Baghdad agreed to send Erbil 12.67% of the federal budget; in return, the KRG agreed to offer Baghdad 250,000 barrels of exported oil per day. For various reasons, the KRG never delivered the oil or its revenue, and the Shia political parties exerted unbearable pressure on the PM to cut the KRG from the national budget altogether. Nevertheless, Abdul Mahdi’s government continued to send the Kurdistan Region its share of the budget. Negotiations continued, and both sides eventually reached a comprehensive agreement to resolve the revenue issues from the KRG’s oil sales and border crossing customs. These negotiations, as well as the implementation of previous agreements, were suspended upon the resignation of Abdul Mahdi’s government at the end of November 2019. Nevertheless, budgetary payments to the KRG, minus the calculated revenue from the agreed KRG oil exports, continued until April 2020 (total IQD 454b, c. $278m). Unexpectedly though, in the final few weeks of his premiership, Abdul Mahdi ordered the finance ministryto halt the delivery of the KRG’s public-sector salary payments.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Local
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

16443. Looming Debt Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: Drivers, Implications and Policy Options

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Theresa Mannah-Blankson, and Angelica Espiritu-Njuguna
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This study explores the trends, patterns and drivers of recent debt accumulation in Sub-Saharan African countries with a view to sheding light on possible strategies to minimize adverse effects on the economies and ensure sustainable development financing. This is in light of concerns about a possible ‘looming debt crisis’ in the developing world, which have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The analysis in this study is based on existing data, supplemented by detailed information obtained from government sources for the cases of Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda. The evidence shows that Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced rapid accumulation of both domestic and external public debt since the 2008 global financial crisis. Governments have resorted increasingly to non-concessional borrowing and high-cost private short-term loans including Eurobonds, which has contributed to increasing the overall cost of debt servicing. The debt sustainability analysis by the IMF/World Bank completed before the Coronavirus pandemic suggested that debt ratios in SSA would stabilize or decline by 2023, assuming that appropriate fiscal consolidation plans are implemented and that most drivers of the debt acceleration dissipate in the medium term. With the Covid-19 pandemic, debt ratios in SSA are likely to rise and would only stabilize at a much later period if African economies are hit with a full-blown crisis as witnessed by advanced economies. Most importantly, the coronavirus crisis will exacerbate debt distress in countries that were already in weak conditions. It is imperative for Africa’s creditors and the donor community in general to assist African countries in combatting the pandemic and minimizing its impact on the economies by alleviating the debt burden through an expanded debt relief and a robust debt restructuring program. Going forward, given that African countries need high levels of financing to reach sustainable development goals, they must devise a strategy for ‘growing with debt’ in the post-crisis period. The paper offers some suggestions to achieve this goal.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

16444. Zombie Prevalence and Survival

Author:
Debamanyu Das and Saurabh Roy
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
We document the rise in the share of zombie firms starting from the late 1990s in the U.S. economy across various sectors. We compare multiple definitions used in literature to identify zombies and discuss how they continue to survive. We find zombies issue more debt compared to non-zombies. A subset of zombies defined as growing zombies are able to raise equity too.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Political Economy, Equity, and Zombie Firms
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

16445. Deindustrialization and Deaths of Despair: Mapping the Impact of Industrial Decline on Ill Health

Author:
Gabor Scheiring, David Stuckler, and Lawrence King
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
A growing literature on deaths of despair has argued that workers’ declining life expectancy in deindustrialized rustbelt areas in the U.S. and the associated deepening of health inequalities signal the profound existential crisis of contemporary capitalism. Competing explanations downplay the negative consequences of “creative destruction” and focus instead on unhealthy lifestyles. This article contributes to this debate by presenting the first empirical analysis of the role of deindustrialization in the deaths of despair epidemic that hit Eastern Europe in the 1990s. Drawing on the thematic analysis of 82 semi-structured interviews in four deindustrialized towns in Hungary, the article constructs a general sociological framework for analyzing deaths of despair applicable to other rustbelt areas. Deindustrialization engenders individual and social processes that affect health by increasing stress and eroding coping resources. By conceptualizing deindustrialization as a fundamental cause of ill health, sociology has great potential to contribute to understanding the root causes of deaths of despair.
Topic:
Health, Political Economy, Capitalism, Mortality, Industry, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

16446. South Asian Economies in Two Imperialist Regimes Between 1950 and 2020

Author:
Vamsi Vakulabharanam
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper discusses the evolution of post-colonial South Asian economies using the triad of dominant classes, state ,and imperialism. Two key insights help us make sense of this evolution. First, the dominant classes such as landed interests, private capital, and government bureaucrats in South Asia were able to prevent a radical/progressive restructuring of the economies from the very outset. Any deep crisis that threatened to radically transform the existing social order was solved through an ‘imperialist fix,’ whereby the dominant classes in conjunction with the state sought external help (e.g. ‘Green Revolution’ in the wake of food crises of 1960s). On the other hand, imperialist countries, when they needed the cooperation of South Asia in their strategic endeavors or when they underwent capitalist crises, used the region (along with the larger developing world that possesses labor reserves, minerals, and serves as a final market) as a 'spatial fix’ to solve their crises. It is the coming together of these two processes/fixes that defines the mutual engagement of imperialism and South Asian economies during this period that contained two imperialist orders, one that lasted from 1950 until 1980, and a second one that came into being after 1980.
Topic:
Imperialism, Political Economy, History, Capitalism, State, and Class
Political Geography:
South Asia

16447. Privatization and the Postsocialist Fertility Decline

Author:
Gabor Scheiring, Bryant Hui, Darja Irdam, Aytalina Azarova, and Eva Fodor
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this article, we analyze the privatization of companies as a potential but so far neglected factor behind the postsocialist fertility decline. We test this hypothesis using a novel database comprising information on the demographic and enterprise trajectories of 52 Hungarian towns between 1989-2006 and a cross-country dataset of 28 countries in Eastern Europe. We fit fixed and random-effects models adjusting for potential confounding factors and control for time-variant factors and common trends. We find that privatization is significantly associated with fertility decline, explaining approximately half of the overall fertility decline across the 52 towns and the 28 countries.
Topic:
Privatization, Capitalism, Post-Socialist Economies, and Fertility
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

16448. Bitter Chocolate: Wealth Extraction in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
Jean Merckaert
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The cocoa sector has been at the heart of Côte d'Ivoire economy since independence. The country has become the largest producer of cocoa in the world (40%). In the two first decades of independence, impressive economic growth was fueled by cocoa exports. But the Ivorian miracle evaporated after the collapse of cocoa prices and the debt soaring. The country plunged into a serious economic crisis, followed by a political crisis that culminated in civil war in the early 2000s. The primary commodity sector in Côte d’Ivoire has been highly vulnerable to illicit financial flows. Large and persistent discrepancies between Côte d'Ivoire’s cocoa export statistics and the cocoa import statistics of major partners such as the Netherlands, Germany and France are indicative of substantial capital flight through export misinvoicing. With a focus on the four major periods in Ivorian political history, this paper analyzes the trend of illicit financial outflows in the cocoa sector, the mechanisms of resource rent capture and personal enrichment that fuel them, the key national and foreign players, and their ongoing responsibilities. Under the Houphouët-Boigny regime (1960-1993), through the management of the country’s Agricultural Product Stabilization and Support Fund, the president had full control over the cocoa sector and used it to enrich himself and his associates. He and his successor Bédié (1993-1999) colluded with exporting companies in which Ivorian political leaders were shareholders. Under Gbagbo (2000-2010), the cocoa rent was the main source of funding for the civil war. The techniques of the Forces Nouvelles in the North and government forces in the South were similar: taxing cocoa production and exports, and illegally exporting part of the output to neighboring Burkina Faso and Ghana. Under the Ouattara regime (2011-2020), despite a series of reforms aimed at good governance, the cocoa sector has remained highly concentrated in the hands of a few corporate giants and plagued with favoritism, while predation in other sectors too persisted. The persistence of capital flight suggests the political economy of cocoa remains deeply rooted in the colonial scheme. Be it state-led or market-led, dominated by foreign or domestic players, the Ivorian cocoa sector has remained the place for wealth extraction to the benefit of a handful members of the elite. Overcoming primary commodity dependence is essential for equitable development.
Topic:
Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flows, Commodities, Capital Flight, Chocolate, and Wealth Extraction
Political Geography:
Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

16449. Explaining Turkey’s Current Economic Crisis

Author:
Erinc Yeldan
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2018. In contrast to the previous crisis episodes of 1994, 2001 or 2009, when the economy had abruptly shrunk with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018- crisis is characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising open unemployment, a spiraling currency depreciation and high inflation. Popular explanations from the mainstream tradition attribute this dismal performance to a lack of “structural reforms” and/or exogenous factors. Per contra, our analysis shows that the underlying sources of the crisis are to be found not in the conjunctural cycles of reform fatigue, but rather in the post-2001 neoliberal speculative-led growth model with excessive reliance on hot money flows and foreign debt accumulation. We argue that following the post-2001 orthodox reforms, a foreign-capital-inflow-dependent, debt-led, and construction-centered economic growth model dominated the economy and caused a long buildup of imbalances and increased fragilities.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financialisation, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

16450. The U.S.–China Trade Imbalance and the Theory of Free Trade: Debunking the Currency Manipulation Argument

Author:
Anwar Shaikh and Isabella Weber
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The U.S.–China trade imbalance is commonly attributed to a Chinese policy of currency manipulation. However, empirical studies failed to reach consensus on the RMB misalignment. We argue that this is not a consequence of poor measurement but of theory. At the most abstract level the conventional principle of comparative cost advantage suggests real exchange rates will adjust so as to balance trade. Therefore, the persistence of trade imbalances tends to be interpreted as arising from currency manipulation facilitated by foreign exchange interventions. By way of contrast, the absolute cost theory explains trade imbalances as the outcome of free trade among nations that have unequal real costs. We argue that a disparity in real costs is the root cause of the U.S.–China trade imbalance.
Topic:
Exchange Rate Policy, Free Trade, Trade, and Purchasing Power
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America