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15631. Stranded Fossil-Fuel Assets Translate into Major Losses for Investors in Advanced Economies

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk, Philip B. Holden, Jean-Francois Mercure, Pablo Salas, Hector Pollitt, Katharine Jobson, Pim Vercoulen, Unnada Chewpreecha, Neil Edwards, and Jorge E Viñuales
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The distribution of ownership of transition risk associated with stranded fossil-fuel assets remains poorly understood. We compute global stranded assets of US$1.4 trillion in the upstream oil and gas sector as expectations change to be consistent with stated climate policies. We trace the equity risk ownership from these 43,439 assets through a global equity network of 1.8 million companies to their ultimate owners. Most of the market risk falls on private investors, overwhelmingly in OECD countries, including substantial exposure through pension funds. Financial markets are exposed to a US$690 billion correction, comparable to the mispricing that triggered the 2007-08 crisis. The ownership distribution also shows the large stake OECD investors have in the continued operation of fossil-fuel facilities incompatible with climate change mitigation goals.
Topic:
Climate Change, Political Economy, Economy, Investment, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15632. International Migration Dynamics in the Context of OECD Countries

Author:
Sinem Dedeoglu Ozkan
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
Globalization, one of the important phenomena of today, has led to political, social and economic changes in both regional and national scale. These rapid changes seriously affect the phenomenon of migration, its target and the quality of life. Especially in EU and OECD countries, various policies have been implemented to prevent the increasing migration rate, fulfill the requirements of the global economy, and to eliminate the developmental differences between countries, regions and sub-regions. Thus, it is of great importance to investigate the causes of international migrant mobility that deeply affects the economic and social structure of nations. The present study aimed to determine the factors that affect international migration towards the OECD countries. A current data set consisting of 79 variables defining the social, economic, environmental structure was created and correlation and regression analysis methods were used to determine the factors that affected international migration in OECD countries. With this work; it has been observed that there are strong relationships between international migration and various economic and social development variables. Hence, it is envisaged to make a descriptive and statistically valid, reliable assessment, to make predictions, and to contribute to the scientific literature in the context of international migration policies.
Topic:
Environment, Globalization, International Cooperation, Migration, and Borders
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15633. Europeanisation in Non-European Union Countries and the Foreign and Security Policies of Associated States

Author:
Erol Kalkan
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
This study aims to explore the influence of the European Union (EU) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) on non-EU countries and the foreign and security policies of associated states. It argues that the scope of EU’s transformative impact is not limited to the EU members and their economy, rule of law and democracy. Although it is at a relatively few and new, the EU has an increasing impact on non-EU countries and the security, defence and foreign policies of EU members. The findings of study reveals that the influence of the EU on non-EU members and on the security, defence and foreign policies of EU members occurs in four ways: a) adaptation to the EU/CSDP norms and values through socialisation and experimental learning, b) adaptation to the EU/CSDP requirements, norms and values as an outcome of the EU calls and conditionality, c) adaptation to the EU/CSDP requirements, norms and values to achieve diplomatic and national goal at international level and d) adaptation to the EU/CSDP requirements, norms and values as an outcome of the effect of the EU on the domestic balance of power and the ‘domestic sources’ of external policy.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

15634. India and Iran Relations under the Shadow of Global Politics: A Brief Historical Overview

Author:
Mukhtar Ahmad Bhat
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
In contemporary world politics, India and Iran occupy great strategic significance. Both countries have huge convergence of national interests. Collaboration and cooperation between the countries would resolve their respective domestic issues and challenges and play a determining role in strengthening their role in global affairs. For a fast-growing economy and energy deficit country like India, Iran provides access to a huge amount of natural resources and opens up its vast untapped market for Indian finished goods and services. In addition to that, Iran, due to its geographic location can act as a transit route for India to reach strategically important countries in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Being the second-largest Shia populated country in the world after Iran and one of the highest energy importing countries, India occupies an important place in the strategic thinking of Iran. In the past, India was the second-largest oil-exporting destination for Iran and an important trading partner for Iran. Taking the structural realism as a theoretical framework, the article attempts to seek an answer to the questions, why despite belonging to a single-family, living together for many centuries and sharing common social, religious and traditional values, the two countries have been unable to transform their mutual understanding into a long term strategic partnership, and how the global events have affected their mutual understanding and replaced it with trust deficit.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, India, and Asia

15635. Sectarianism and Sectarianisation in Iraq: Ambassadorial Appointments as an Exemplar

Author:
Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Sectarianisation of Iraq’s governance has already become a powerful driver of conflict. Left unaddressed, it can become irreversible. Here, ambassadorial appointments are used to underline the depth of sectarian divisions within the legislative and executive institutions, and offer ways forward.
Topic:
Governance, Sectarianism, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

15636. The US policy in Iraq

Author:
Srush H.A. Khoshnaw
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
This report is a summary of a policy debate held at MERI on Wednesday, 24 November 2021, attended by a selection of policy makers, politicians and academics. Discussions focused on the current US Administration’s priorities and its policies in the wider Middle East, Iraq and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

15637. Iraq’s National Strategy to Counter Violent Extremism

Author:
Kamaran Palani
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Four years after the military defeat of the so-called Islamic State, pre-existing conditions associated with the risk of violent extremism continue unabated in Iraq. The current national strategy to counter violent extremism needs a comprehensive revision to include the context, needs and realities of the country’s different regions.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

15638. Preventing Violent Extremism in the Balkans and the MENA

Author:
Morten Boas
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Strengthening societal resilience is considered vital for the prevention of violent extremism. This, however, requires a nuanced approach and comprehensive review of past policies. PREVEX is a European Union funded project, implemented by a consortium of 15 international research centres in Europe, MENA region and the Balkans. MERI is our partner in Iraq.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

15639. State-Building in Iraq

Author:
Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Following decades of authoritarian rule and highly centralised governing system, the people of Iraq adopted a democratic Constitution in 2005, designed to put Iraq on an evolutionary roadmap for democracy, rule-of-law and economic prosperity. The Constitution consists of 144 Articles which, together, define the main pillars of a democratic governance and provide frameworks and boundaries for their enactment, with or without mandating new legislations. However, translating the Constitution into reality proved extremely challenging. Over the past 16 years, the political and institutional leaders have engaged in overt sectarian political dynamics that proved detrimental to the state-building process. They were highly selective in enacting, key constitutional Articles. Many essential institutions and/or legislations that are mandated by the Constitution are awaiting establishment, some of which are critical for enhancing the rule-of-law, safeguarding the Constitution, streamlining the legislative cycle, institutionalising the centre-periphery relations, empowering the local government and optimising the management of national resources and assets. As a consequence, there are currently numerous structural and functional gaps or weaknesses in Iraq’s governing system, which have added to the country’s fragility and acted as independent drivers of conflict. In this report, attempts are made to: (a) Identify the key structural and functional gaps or weaknesses in the governing system that have arisen from inadequate implementation of the Constitution; (b) highlighting the relevant historical context and political barriers for progress; and (c) offer appropriate policy recommendations to stakeholders.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

15640. Mediterranean trends 2030/2050. A prospective approach to the Southern neighbourhood

Author:
Itxaso Dominguez de Olazabal and Alfonso Casani
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Launched a quarter of a century ago, the Barcelona Process began a process of reflection and unification regarding Spanish and European Union (EU) policies towards the Mediterranean. However, this has not always translated into coherent, prudent, and timely policies given the changing structural conditions that occurred in the region, such as the 2010/2011 anti-authoritarian revolts. A more anticipatory approach needs to be applied to policy-making, re-examining both the vision and policies. This document undertakes an in-depth foresight analysis of the Southern Neighbourhood, with a view to the medium- and long-term horizons of 2030 and 2050 respectively. Consequently, it aims to contribute towards developing long-term, proactive strategies both nationally and within Europe, which commit to developing coherent and responsible policies that could help the region’s societies develop inclusively, sustainably, and democratically. As such, this exercise aspires to identify the paths, realities, and phenomena that can lead to somewhat sustainable and friendly scenarios for the affected populations in the future. The work identifies of these scenarios. This involves reporting six megatrends in the nine dynamics. Based on available data and knowledge gleaned from interviews, they can define the evolution and range of possible directions in which the Southern Neighbourhood countries are heading. This document profiles and compares two of them: one positive, characterised by the appeasement of social conflicts, the adoption of good governance practices, and greater regional stability; and a second scenario that will bear witness to a worsening of political, social, and economic issues and conflicts, within a context marked by the stiffening of authoritarian trends and a deepening of social inequalities. The difference between each scenario resides in the will of Southern Neighbourhood countries to adopt measures aimed at better governance and the adoption of more multilateral action frameworks that favour cooperation. Both scenarios offer a set of opportunities, applicable mainly to the Southern Neighbourhood countries, with Spain and the EU eventually joining them on the process. These opportunities point to areas of particular importance in order to achieve a sustainable future for the region’s societies.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Mediterranean