Search

Begin New Search Publication Year within 5 Years Publication Year within 25 Years

15101. Fruitless cherry picking?: EU engagement with the Syrian opposition (Etilaf)

Author:
Lars Hauch
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the EU’s engagement and relationship with Syria’s main political opposition umbrella, the Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (Etilaf), which was founded in late 2012. It discusses the EU’s engagement strategies with the Etilaf and their impact on its development in the context of the Syrian conflict. The brief highlights that the EU did not substantiate the international legitimacy it granted the organisation early on during the conflict with policies that would have allowed it to expand its domestic legitimacy and capabilities. This policy contributed to developments in which the Etilaf rapidly lost its original potential. While the Etilaf today faces a range of structural and operational challenges that need to be addressed, the brief nevertheless recommends EU institutions and Member States to increase their support for the Etilaf and the Interim Government linked with it, if a number of conditions can be met. Such support will help maintain and develop these bodies into a viable centre of political opposition to the Assad regime. Practically speaking, this objective can be pursued by piloting conditional EU support to areas of northwestern and northern Syria that are nominally under the control of the Interim Government. It also requires building a partnership with Turkey to jointly support local Syrian administration(s) in the same areas.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Conflict, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Opposition
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

15102. ‘Of Cattle and Conflict’ – Rethinking responses to pastoralism-related conflicts

Author:
Jos Meester
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Disputes over natural resources such as water and land among pastoralist groups and between mobile pastoralists and sedentary farmers have a long history and are turning increasingly violent. Competition over scarce natural resources is often put forward as the key driver of farmer-herder conflicts, disregarding the significant role governance is playing in conflict dynamics. Oversimplifications of the pastoralist-conflict equation and a lack of understanding of pastoralist systems and the way they are governed has led to inappropriate interventions further undermining pastoralism. Policies and interventions in response to pastoralism-related conflicts often do not take an integrated approach but are based on sectoral policies and are not conflict sensitive as they fail to take into account the political economy driving farmer-herder conflicts. Comparing the cases of Burkina Faso, Somalia and South Sudan, this paper analyses how pastoralist resource governance in combination with its specific underlying political economy differentially affects the dynamics of conflict around pastoral resources. Reflecting upon three agendas that inform the thinking about pastoralism as well as donor interventions – climate change, food security and governance – this paper provides some recommendations on how to take underlying political economy into account for sensible and effective programming.
Topic:
Agriculture, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Pastoralism
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, South Sudan, and Burkina Faso

15103. An Ever Closer Union? Ramifications of further integration between Belarus and Russia

Author:
Bob Deen, Sam Roggeveen, and Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Union State of Russia and Belarus was forged in the 1990s through a series of bilateral treaties but has largely remained a paper tiger – at least until now. For well over two decades Belarusian President Lukashenko has had a complicated love-hate relationship with the Kremlin, milking the Russian Federation for energy subsidies and other economic benefits while simultaneously zealously guarding his country’s sovereignty and shielding its state-owned enterprises from Russian takeovers. Although co-operation in the military domain has advanced considerably, the more far-reaching provisions of the Union State, such as a joint constitution, monetary union and a single energy market, have never materialized. While Belarus has generally aligned its foreign policy outlook with the Russian Federation and acceded to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, at various moments Lukashenko tried to keep his geopolitical options open as his relations with the Kremlin deteriorated. Among other things, he sought closer relations with the European Union following the 2008 Georgia conflict and the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The EU, in turn, has alternated between defending its democratic values by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko and his regime for human rights abuses, and then lifting those again a few years later, hoping to lure Belarus away from Russia’s sphere of influence. These hopes proved to be in vain. The Presidential elections of August 2020 and their repressive aftermath have again led to a turning point in Belarus’ relations with the West and with the Russian Federation. Relying on Russian support to remain in power and facing a series of European sanctions, Lukashenko is now again under pressure by the Kremlin to make far-reaching concessions and to advance the integration of Belarus and Russia within the Union State framework. As both the stability of the Lukashenko regime and the outcome of the integration process remain uncertain, this report identifies six scenarios for the future of Belarus and further elaborates the consequences of four of them.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Military Affairs, European Union, and Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Belarus

15104. Exploring avenues in the EU’s rule of law crisis: What role for the Netherlands?

Author:
Luuk Molthof, Nienke van Heukelingen, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Despite the existence of an extensive ‘rule of law toolbox’, the EU has found it difficult to deal with rule of law issues. Many experts attribute the EU’s failure to act to a lack of political will and determination on the part of EU institutions and member states. However, not all actors are lacking in political will (equally). The Netherlands, for instance, has been very concerned about the erosion of the rule of law inside the EU and has been one of the more active member states – along with, for instance, Belgium, Finland, Sweden and Denmark – in trying to address the EU’s rule of law crisis. In this policy brief, we examine three possible avenues available to the Netherlands to strengthen the political will of EU institutions and (like-minded) peers to assertively address this crisis and to increase pressure on backsliding member states to safeguard the rule of law.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Rule of Law, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, and Netherlands

15105. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Idlib

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The trigger for the Turkish Operation Spring Shield in northern Idlib in February 2020 was to prevent the Syrian conflict – especially extremists and refugees – spilling over into Turkey as the result of a new regime offensive. A deeper driver of the operation was Ankara’s desire to draw a line against further regime advances that might jeopardise Turkish territorial gains across northern Syria. Millions of Syrian internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) were the main – although unintended – beneficiaries of the operation. Tactically, Operation Spring Shield was a success because of a surge in Turkish military resources in northern Idlib, Ankara’s willingness to use them, and the speed with which Turkey acted. Strategically, it helped a great deal that Russia decided to stand aside for a few days. Russian-Turkish diplomacy resumed after battlefield conditions had shifted in Turkey’s favour and Syrian regime forces were stopped in their tracks. In the short term, Operation Spring Shield can be considered as having brought a measure of humanitarian and geopolitical stabilisation by clarifying Turkey’s red lines to Damascus, Tehran and Moscow, and by bringing about a new equilibrium between Russiansupported forces and Turkish forces in Syria. The operation did not negatively affect Turkey’s relationship with its NATO partners, the EU or the US. This was in part because the operation highlighted the limitations of the Astana process – a diplomatic initative in which Turkey, Iran and Russia pursue opposing aims vis-à-vis the Assad regime – from which these actors are excluded. In the medium term, the impact of Operation Spring Shield will depend on the permanence of the Turkish presence, the level of Turkish developmental investment and the evolution, as well as the place, of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the future governance of northern Idlib.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

15106. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Libya

Author:
Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The strategic objectives of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in 2019–2020 in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) were geopolitical (establishing an entry point into Africa in addition to Somalia), geo-economical (related to gas exploration in the Mediterranean) and commercial (facilitating repayment of outstanding business debts and enabling future profits). The deeper drivers of Ankara’s intervention include a mix of more assertive nationalism based on a hegemonic conception of Turkey’s ‘near abroad’, a perceived need to counter the military campaign of the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s to conquer Tripolitania, and Turkey’s exclusion from Mediterranean gas politics. Ankara’s intervention and its institutionalisation proved effective in counterbalancing the LNA and its international backers – chiefly Russia and the UAE, but also France and Egypt – and produced a more stable political situation in the process. While Turkey has achieved its short- to medium-term objectives and is likely to retain a substantial permanent military, commercial and political presence in Libya, it also created tensions with the EU and US as well as antagonizing the LNA’s international backers. In brief, an improvement in Turkey’s geostrategic position might have come at the cost of its regional strategic relations.
Topic:
Politics, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

15107. Two-state solution: A radical shift in the Cypriot conflict

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey supported Northern Cyprus’s call for a two-state solution to the nearly half-decade-old conflict on the island due to the the failure of negotiations over the past years on the federal solution and geopolitical changes in the eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Cyprus and Mediterranean

15108. The State of Exception in Tunisia: Background, Significance and Prospects

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Tunisian President Saied undertook exceptional measures to assume all powers, causing sharp internal and external polarisation between those who consider them an infringement of the democratic system and those who consider them necessary measures necessitated by the deteriorating conditions.
Topic:
Democracy, Polarization, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

15109. A strategic shift: The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and its implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Taliban was able to establish control over Afghanistan with surprising speed due to the collapse of solidarity between the forces opposing them. Nonetheless, its leaders were keen to allay the fears of both the Afghans and external forces to gain political legitimacy internally and externally.
Topic:
Politics, Taliban, Conflict, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

15110. The Egyptian-Jordanian-Iraqi triangle: Reviving an Arab axis in changed circumstances

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Egyptian, Iraqi, and Jordanian leaderships continue to seek enhanced cooperation among them, as if reviving the Arab alliance that they had formed in the past, in order to overcome unfavourable changes in the regional environment.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Countries, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan