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14401. Europe’s Strategic Compass: Merits and Shortcomings

Author:
Riccardo Perissich
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe’s “Strategic Compass” proposes a number of initiatives to enable the EU to act in the security and defence domain and confront the many challenges impacting European interests. The document, prepared by the European External Action Service (EEAS) under the responsibility of Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative and Vice President of the Commission, will be debated by defence and foreign ministers over the next few months and subsequently adopted as an official strategy statement sometime during the French Presidency of the European Council next year.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

14402. The Italy–France Treaty is an Example of Wise Diplomacy

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The recently concluded Treaty on Enhanced Cooperation between France and Italy[1] has created some interest in Europe. Dubbed the “Quirinale Treaty” after the sumptuous residential palace of the Italian president of the Republic where the signing ceremony was held, the agreement is indeed a significant development. It could preside over an expansion and deepening of the bilateral relationship, lead to a degree of rebalancing in Europe’s power relations and usher in a new era of greater coordination between Paris and Rome in EU negotiating formats. These three elements – the bilateral dimension, Europe’s balance of power and EU policymaking processes – make up the rationale of the treaty and are consequently worth analysing separately.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Italy

14403. If you Can't Beat Them, Join Them: Should States Embrace Bitcoin?

Author:
Jesse Colzani
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Bitcoin – the most secure and well-established technology to store value[1] – was created in 2008 to challenge the state’s centralised monopoly on money. It is a digital currency worth 1 trillion US dollars that knows no boundaries and is not controlled by any central authority. Although it is considered a threat to the established order, countries and institutional actors are gradually realising Bitcoin can also be a tool to advance their economic and geopolitical interests. Today, governments find themselves in the difficult position of having to decide whether Bitcoin should be integrated into their economies and governance structures or if they should continue to oppose, block or seek to co-opt the digital currency. But to understand Bitcoin and make an informed decision, one has to first appreciate the different components of its ecosystem.
Topic:
Political Economy, Governance, Currency, Digital Policy, and Bitcoin
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14404. The Impact of COVID-19 on Croatia’s Euro Adoption Strategy

Author:
Kristijan Kotarski
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Is the euro a golden goose laying golden eggs? Well, certainly not, if one asks an average Greek or Italian whose countries have consistently faced lower GDP per capita levels than the level they last recorded back in 2008. On the of them introduced the common European currency in 2007 and 2009. Not only are their countries more prosperous, but the euro also enjoys high social support. The aforementioned and diametrically opposite experiences show that the euro is at times, and especially during economic downturns, an issue which arouses other hand, is the euro a stinging viper? Surely not, if one poses this question to an average Slovene or Slovak whose countries boast rapid economic catch-up with the EU’s average level of economic development, especially since bothof them introduced the common European currency in 2007 and 2009. Not only are their countries more prosperous, but the euro also enjoys high social support. The aforementioned and diametrically opposite experiences show that the euro is at times, and especially during economic downturns, an issue which arouses many controversies.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Adoption
Political Geography:
Europe and Croatia

14405. EU and Russia: From a Partnership to a Rivalry

Author:
Jelena Jurisic
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
At the beginning of the 20th century Halford Mackinder was the first to write about a possibility of integrating Europe and Russia in his famous essay “Geographical Pivot of History.” The latter, on his map of natural crossroads of power, constituted the biggest portion of the “Pivot Area”, later dubbed “the Heartland”, while the former constituted the western part of the “Inner or Marginal Crescent.” Mckinder perceived that an alliance of Europe, as homeland of progress, and Russia, which throughout history influenced Europe by the vastness of its territory, could form the biggest center of power that would span between two oceans and dominate the world. A version of this continental connection was presented some 20 years later by Karl Haushofer who in the alliance of Germany, the Soviet Union and Japan saw a geopolitical force which could crush the domination of the Anglo-Saxon civilization. The next to grasp to the ideal of “Greater Europe” in the fifties was Charles de Gaulle who made a statement about a “Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals.” With the political rapprochement of France and West Germany with the Warsaw Pact led by the USSR he wanted to distance the two for NATO and the dominance of the United States. In the late eighties is was Mikhail Gorbachev who spoke about The “Common European Home” as an ultimate goal of the process of integration, be it in the west as well as in the east of the old continent, in order to end their military and political confrontation through integration. Notwithstanding, with his appeasing foreign policy and wrong steps he achieved the opposite. With the disappearance of ideological chains between Russia and the West the idea of “Greater Europe’’ also ceased to exist. Moscow embarked on the process of democratization, and with it of rapprochement with the US and the EU, and in 1994 the EU–Russia partnership and cooperation agreement was signed. Four years later Boris Yeltsin hosted an informal summit with Helmut Kohl and Jacques Chirac, which resulted in creation of Paris-Berlin- Moscow axis. This axis lasted for just a few minutes as during the press conference the Russian president stated that Russia cannot become a member of the EU and NATO. Pale facial expirations of his guest indicated clearly their thoughts on this statement. Europe did not take seriously the wakened successor of the USSR.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Hegemony, European Union, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

14406. The Arab Spring: A Decade Later

Author:
Mario Stefanov
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring. Suicide of an unemployed young man in the Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid on 17 December 2010 has enticed the protesters to take to the streets and it has triggered and open rebellion against Tunisian autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali - who on 14 a decade later, it can be stated with certainty that the revolutions of the Arab Spring were not successful. These revolutions have not ushered in neither modernization nor democratization of the Arab countries, which was the revolutions declared objective. To the contrary, even Tunisia, a country said to have had a successful revolution, had also replaced one dictatorship with another. Effects of the violent upheavals of January 2011 boarded on plane and fled to Saudi Arabia, escaping in front of the revolutionary chaos. Successful toppling of Ben Ali has set off a string of uprising in the Arab countries that are today known as the Arab Spring. Nowadays, the Arab Spring in other Arab countries include strengthening od forces of Islamist extremism, conflicts on ethnic, religious and sectarian divisions, civil wars, total economic destruction of the most of the Arab countries caught by the revolutionary wave, dissolution of formerly strong Arab states, and triggering the waves of migrations that still flow toward Europe. A decade after the outbreak of the Arab Spring revolutions the question of their real source remains unanswered, as well as the question to which extent these revolutions were stirred by internal forces in the Arab States of the Middle East and North Africa, or influenced by the factors from the outside. The question whether the revolutions of the Arabs Spring were just an acute geopolitical incident or a part of a long- term process, also remains unanswered. The tenth anniversary is an opportunity to reflect upon and analyze the facts and indications that manifest whom these revolutions benefited, and whom they harmed.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Arab Spring, Protests, Revolution, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

14407. The roaming threats: The security dimension of Almajiris’ mobility in Nigeria and its implications for Africa’s regional security

Author:
Oluwasola Festus Obisesan
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The culture of children begging for alms in Northern Nigeria is long-established and is propelled by poverty, ‘parentlessness’, the absence of parental care and, most importantly, the Islamic doctrines of ‘giving’ to children who are made to seek for qur’anic education outside their parents’ homes. The prevalence of these ‘almajirai’ in Northern Nigeria has begun to create new security dimensions as a result of their mobility given the context of their recruitment into terrorist sects such as Boko Haram and ISWAP. Almajirai have also indulged in drug addiction, street pickpocketing, and other urban crimes. Their mobility has constituted threats for transmission of dangerous communicable diseases such as Corona Virus-19 or what is known as COVID-19. This paper examines the non-military security dimensions associated with the mobility of wandering children beggars or what are often regarded as the Almajiris in Nigeria’s northern states. It examines the level of security threat that the Almajirai pose to the Nigerian state and what implications their mobility has for Nigeria’s internal security, especially in the age of international migration and globalisation. Further, the article analyses the dynamic ways in which the mobility of the Almajiris has threatened the security of the neighbouring states of Chad and Niger as well as West Africa’s regional security in general given its proximity and socio-cultural linkages. The paper employed secondary sources of data collection. It concludes that the mobility of Almajirai poses serious internal security challenges for Nigeria as it serves as a fertile ground for terrorist breeding and radicalization. Disease contraction and transmission, urban crimes such as car-hijacking tactics, pickpocketing, and criminal surveillance of potential innocent targets have become associated with their mobility; hence, regional security is endangered as a result of their increasing crossing of the loosely guarded Nigerian border to the Lake Chad area and West Africa.
Topic:
Security, Mobility, Almajiranci, and Roaming Threat
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

14408. Intrastate cultural and socio-political influences and the realisation of national security: A two-level correlational analysis

Author:
Dimitrios G. Pantazis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to examine how specific domestic social, political, and cultural motives affect the formation and implementation of national security agendas. The following assumptions drive the research rationale behind this essay: Security-making processes are considered non-similar among states due to different domestic political processes, cultural discourses, and socialisation patterns. Therefore, national security agents are constantly being guided by various intrastate settings, which construct attitudes that are ultimately reflected in policy formation and implementation through strategic behavioural manifestations. The realisation of national security is thus dependent on each state actor’s existent strategic culture, and given that, such choices cannot be contemplated in a strictly rational way. The methods of literature review and multi-layered analysis are applied throughout this study. In particular, this text’s reasoning is based on contextualisation, identification, categorisation of variables, and correlational implications. In relation to the findings, the theoretical examination of the objects assessed provides adequate clarification on the interaction between the domestic motives, decision-makers’ perspectives, and strategic cultural manifestations. Specifically, it was critically identified that the two last concepts can have a complementary function during security-making processes, hence producing unique outcomes for each state actor. Consequently, this paper wishes to contribute by giving direction for future research and broader methodological implications on the role of intrastate socio-political and cultural motives as sources of strategic culture and determinants of national security-making attitudes; without ignoring other factors that can respectively affect the aforementioned schemes.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Politics, Culture, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14409. Mediating effect of Indonesia’s public trust on national security from the sense of safety, knowledge, and willingness to participate in state defence efforts

Author:
Dadang Mas Bakar, Syamsunasir, and Agus Adriyanto
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Several studies that focus on the willingness to participate show that trust is a vital variable in mediating a person’s disposition to do so. This study examines the role of public trust in national security as a mediating variable of a sense of security and knowledge of the willingness to participate in state defence efforts. The data was collected via a questionnaire distributed to 435 respondents across Indonesia. We used a simple random sampling method; we then analysed using LISREL with Structural Equation Model (SEM). We found that trust cannot mediate a sense of safety and knowledge on the willingness to participate. An exciting finding was that knowledge affects trust, but sense of safety does not affect trust. This is interesting because it contradicts many studies related to political trust, when the willingness to participate is directly influenced by a sense of security and knowledge related to national security. Thus, to increase the willingness to participate in state defence efforts, it is necessary to increase the community’s sense of security and knowledge related to national security. In this case, we recommend providing education related to defence and security to the community and increasing the community’s sense of security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Participation, and Trust
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

14410. Thirty years of Visegrád Group

Author:
Ivan Iliev
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
In February 1991, at a meeting of the Czechoslovak, Polish and Hungarian presidents, the decision to create an alliance of three Central European countries was made. In 1993, the division of the Czech and Slovak Federal Republics and the establishment of in 1335, attended by King of Bohemia, King of Hungary and King of Poland. Hundreds of years later, former Communist-bloc countries in Central Europe desired to overcome historical animosities between states and nations in this region, believing that joint efforts of relatively small countries would make their goals more achievable. The V4 was also established because post-Communist countries realized that they the independent Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic transformed the tripartite cooperation into a four-party alliance - V4. The name refers to a meeting, which took place near Budapest (at the castle in Visegrád), Hungary, could together boost the socio-economic transformation and join the European Union. Indeed, the V4 has accelerated cooperation and boosted the friendship among the Central European states throughout the years. Today, V4 is a regional structure of four EU and NATO member states that in general share similar economic, cultural and social values. V4 members recognize it as the alliance that strengthens the coordination mechanism to find similar positions on European policy, foreign policy, economic or cultural cooperation, and regional development. Visegrád Group, or shortly called the V4, marks 30 years of existence this year. This unique sort of cooperation has achieved some crucial goals but also failed in reaching cooperation on some EU topics. In the following lines, we will look at these achievements and failures, but will also explain where Visegrád is today and what should be done in order to make this alliance of Central European countries functioning better.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic

14411. Greece and Turkey: A Prime Example of a Complicated Relationship

Author:
Sofia Maria Satanakis
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The relations between Greece and Turkey are known to be historically tense and problematic. Despite being NATO allies, their relationship has been marked by various crises over the past decades and often caught the attention of the international community. Greece, on the intermittent military coups (1960, 1971, 1980), while as early as 1964, it became an associate member of the European Community; the goal being to ultimately join the ‘club’ – as Greece did back in 1981.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

14412. Modelling computer networks for further security research

Author:
Zsolt Bederna and Tamás Szádeczky
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Computer networks are usually modelled from one aspect, e.g., the physical layer of the network, although this does not allow the researcher to understand all usage of that device. We aim to develop a model which leverages all aspects of a networked computer and, therefore, provides complete information to the scientist for all further security research, especially that related to the social sciences. Network science is about the analysis of any network, from social to protein. It is much easier to analyse computer networks with technical tools than protein networks. It is, therefore, a straightforward way to crawl the web as Albert-Laszlo Barabasi did to model its connections, nodes, and links in graph theory to analyse its internal connections. His analysis was based solely on the network layer. Our methodology uses graph theory and network science and integrates all ISO/OSI (computer networking) layers into the model. Each layer of the ISO/OSI model has its topology separately, but all of them also work as part of the complex system to operate the network. It therefore creates a multipartite graph of the network under analysis. Furthermore, the virtual private networks (VPNs) and application usage are also integrated as nodes and links. With this model, the computer network infrastructure and usage data can be used for further non-computing related research, e.g., social science research, as it includes the usage patterns of the network users.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Networks, and Computer Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14413. The Era of German Chancellor Angela Merkel: What Was and What Remains?

Author:
Thomas Brey
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
After the general election in Germany at the end of September, Angela Merkel will step down as Chancellor at the age of 67. She held this most important political office in Germany for almost exactly 16 years (2005-2021). She will thus equal the record of her former political mentor and Chancellor Helmut Kohl (1982- 1998). In 2021, she was named “Most PowerfulForbes for the tenth time in a row. In 2015, the US magazine Time named her “Person of the Year” on its cover. Merkel has received the highest state honors from Italy to Peru, from Portugal to Israel. In 2011, she was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom - one of the two highest state decorations in the USA. The world’s honorary doctorates are legion. Merkel had a picture-perfect professional career, although by today’s standards she became politically active for the first time relatively late, at the age of 35. In the final phase of the GDR, she became involved in the opposition. As “Kohl’s girl” (“Kohls Mädchen”) she became Minister for Women’s Affairs as early as 1989, then Minister for the Environment (1994-1998), CDU General Secretary (1998-2000) and finally Party Chair (until 2018). She completed her studies in East Germany with a highly praised dissertation. When she became Chancellor in 2005, she was the first woman to hold the office and the first Chancellor from East Germany.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Hegemony, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

14414. Assessing the cost of friction between NATO allies

Author:
Odysseus Katsaitis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a method for assessing the cost of friction between North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies and highlights internal threats. This is applied to the Greek–Turkish conflict within the NATO context and concerns the functioning of defence expenditure in Greece, modified in such a way as to focus on the causes of friction between these allies. The analysis concentrates mainly on the issue of internal threats to the long-run equilibrium of NATO. The ARDL methodology used modifies the typical error correction model by introducing a mechanism that accelerates the process that leads back to the long-run equilibrium. Along with assessing the cost to an ally in relation to an internal threat, the method proposed allows the time required for the long-run equilibrium of NATO to be restored. The paper concludes that dynamic incidents of friction between allies expressed as an internal threat disturb NATO’s static equilibrium, destabilise an individual ally’s defence policy and contribute to cost being incurred.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

14415. Military-protester relations: Insights from nonviolence research

Author:
Brian Martin
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Military forces are sometimes called out to confront unarmed civilian protesters, a contingency for which they may or may not be prepared. Studies of civil-military relations have focused on relations between civilian and military elites, with interactions between armed forces and civilian protesters given little or no attention. The objective here is to improve understanding of militaryprotester dynamics. Key relevant features of nonviolent action are outlined, including methods, campaign stages and theoretical assumptions, with a particular focus on interactions with troops. The implications for military-protester dynamics are spelled out with illustrations from several protest campaigns. When troops use force against non-resistant protesters, this sometimes creates more support for the protest movement, a process called political jiu-jitsu. An important method used by some protesters is fraternisation, namely trying to win over troops to their side. Commanders and troops, through their actions, can encourage or discourage protesters’ use of nonviolent methods. Learning about military-protester dynamics is important for both strategists and practitioners.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Protests, Civil-Military Relations, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14416. 2023: Turning Moment for European Energy Policy toward Balkans and the European Promotion of the Rule of Law

Author:
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The year 2023 is likely to bring congruence of events that may cause a “perfect storm” of breaking down security of energy supply, fragile political stability in the Balkans and its unsustainable social contract. As the region grows fragmented from mid-1960’s till nowadays, very few economic forces remain the EU than among themselves. The terms of trade favor imports against exports. After 20 years of infrastructure development and integration efforts, with support of donors and creditors, despite small improvements; Logistic Performance Index (LPI) for the Balkan countries remains slightly over half of best performers such as Germany. Port resources in place that may cause such impact to entire region in the given moment of time. Cross border trade in goods and services is negligibly small. Countries trade more with the rest of are not allocated in line with the commercial practice. That is not good enough for the region that links Mediterranean with the landlocked Danube area. Travel time along major railway routes (Zagreb – Belgrade or Belgrade -Bar) are twice longer than during 1980’s. Belgrade Port, that is the key destination for transport with all sea ports in the region is constrained by the city planning and kept below minimum throughput to be reported in European inland port statistics. Croatia, Montenegro or Albania, are hardly in position to engage into trade as their ports operate far below competitive thresholds. The transactions are prohibitively expensive.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

14417. America’s “Forever War” and the End of the Washington-led Unipolar World

Author:
Darren Spinck
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
America’s retreat from Afghanistan culminated in the country falling back into control of the Taliban, the very group that provided safe- haven for al-Qaeda prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks. America suffered immeasurable pain and costs from this jihadist attack on US soil, made possible by intelligence failures, evolved for the “Global War on Terror.” Twenty years later, Washington still has not learned from pre-9/11 mistakes. Prior to America’s complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, US intelligence was unable to convince the White House of the Afghan government’s fragility and the Taliban’s intentions. Radical Islamists in Afghanistan capitalized on policymaking which did not recognize the emerging Islamist threat towards America. Al-Qaeda’s September 11 tactical victory begat a series of foreign policy blunders in Afghanistan as strategies missteps again, celebrating another victory over America when the Taliban flag rose over the Afghan presidential palace on September 11, 2021.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Leadership, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

14418. Turkey and Russia in Syrian war: Hostile friendship

Author:
Cemil Doğaç İpek and Mehmet Çağatay Güler
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This study considers Russian-Turkish relations within the context of the Syrian war. We elaborate on both Russia’s and Turkey’s strategies and their understanding of the Syrian War, and consider how the two countries have managed to stay on the same page despite conflictual strategies and geopolitical interests in Syria. The current literature does not address this question and does not thoroughly compare their actions and engagements in the field. This article aims to clarify Turkey-Russia relations in the Syria and provides evidence of how they are in conflict and cooperate at the same time. In this regard, it is argued that the available evidence indicates that Turkey-Russia relations in Syria operate on the “compartmentalisation” strategy. In order to test this argument, the qualitative research method based on secondary resources is used while the theoretical framework previously formulated by Onis and Yilmaz (2015) is adopted. They conceptualise Turkey-Russia relations as if they do “compartmentalise economic issues and geopolitical rivalries in order to avoid the negative spillover of certain disagreements into areas of bilateral cooperation.” Furthermore, they claim that compartmentalisation can be hindered if there are deepening security concerns in an area like Syria. However, this article underscores that compartmentalisation does not only work by separating the economic issue from geopolitical rivalries; it also makes Turkey and Russia able to cooperate and conflict in a specific and fundamentally conflictual geopolitical issue such as Syria. The convergences and divergences that occurred in the Syrian field are conceptualised under the strategy of compartmentalisation. In this context, the cooperation – the signed agreements and established mechanisms, conflicts, and clashes in the field, are acknowledged as the consequences of the compartmentalisation strategy in Syria. The compartmentalisation strategy is specifically used in Syria in order to avoid the negative impacts of direct clashes in bilateral cooperation and agreements. It can therefore be concluded that the deepening divergence in security related issue does not necessarily prevent compartmentalisation; on the contrary, compartmentalisation paves the way for stabilisation of such deepening divergence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, and Compartmentalization
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

14419. Current State of Ukraine’s Play within the Geopolitical Map of Europe

Author:
Iuliia Osmolovska
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The beginning on November has been rich on worrysome developments in Eastern Europe and around Ukraine in particular. With reports of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) of continued and evergrowingnumberofceasefireviolationson the frontline in Donetsk and Lugansk regions - climbing to more than 750 daily on 12th and 13th November - satellite data on suspicious build-up of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border and respective US warning its EU allies of Russia’s potential invasion in Ukraine, migrant crisis on Polish-Belarussian border leading to aggressive land and aerial border patrol checks by joint Belarus and Russia military forces - the whole security landscape of Eastern Europe becomes ever more shaky and troublesome. Spiced up with undeclared energy war in Europe and Troyan Horse of Nord Stream 2, muscle stretching in the Black Sea, still-to-be-defined political configuration and policies of the new German government, turbulent presidential run-up France, everything leads to ideal mulled waters for perfect fishing. At first glance, all the mentioned presents rather gloomy picture of unfavorable setting, in which Ukraine has to operate nowadays. Russia seemingly has a tactical upper hand it its confrontation with the West and enjoys this advantage. Yet, this could be true, if we ignore some fundamental systemic changes. They are firmly shaping irreversibility of Ukraine’s pro- Western orientation and ever further steady integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures, thus leaving tiny fading prospect for potential return of Ukraine into Russian orbit of influence. Recent poll data demonstrate that 62% of Ukrainians support the country’s integration into the EU, while 58% support Ukraine’s membership in NATO. The number of Ukrainians, who see better guarantees in Ukraine’s membership in NATO has risen to 55% in 2020 (compared to 26% for neutral status and 5% for a military union with Russia and other CIS countries).
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

14420. Disinformation as a threat to national security on the example of the COVID-19 pandemics

Author:
Wojciech Łukasz Sługocki and Bogdan Sowa
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Nowadays, the vast majority of the threats to our security is related to information security, resulting in a significant transformation of national security systems. One such threat is disinformation, which is increasingly being used intentionally. The study examines certain impacts of disinformation on national security as a system, on the example of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the study explores some processes visible at the international level and reviews some external problems in connection with national security. Research methods and techniques implemented in the research process itself are primarily based on a critical analysis of the literature and the analysis and synthesis of published research results. The main findings show that the phenomenon of disinformation, which intensifies in crisis situations (e.g. related to the outbreak of a pandemic) contributes to the destabilization of public mood, hinders the functioning of the basic organs of the state and, consequently, increases the negative effects of crisis events. Secondly, the disinformation used during the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated its effects, causing damage on an unprecedented scale. The analyses show that the fight against disinformation must be based on the assumption that the security of the state depends primarily on the information awareness of each citizen. Social awareness is built through effective education aimed at raising basic medical knowledge. Disinformation has serious consequences for modern countries as it creates a new threat to their national security in peacetime.
Topic:
National Security, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus