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101. Great Powers, Climate Change, and Global Environmental Responsibilities

Author:
Sezen Kaya-Sönmez
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The increasing deleterious effects of climate change have led to the emergence of multilateral environmental regimes and different understandings of responsibilities. Great Powers, Climate Change, and Global Environmental Responsibilities, edited by Robert Falkner and Barry Buzan, is an excellent book covering case-based examples of special environmental responsibilities. It aims to close the gap between International Relations (IR) theories on great powers and Global Environmental Politics (GEP) to illuminate the definition of environmental great power, differences in global environmental responsibilities, and the role of great powers regarding global environmental issues, particularly climate change. Buzan and Falkner argue that climate change is a global threat to international society that requires great powers to assume special responsibilities. Hence, this book seeks to bring together IR approaches to the study of great power and Great Power Management (GPM) to explain how great powers acquire legitimacy to justify their unequal status by accepting special rights and responsibilities as an institution of international society and how GEP perspectives shape the roles played by major powers (p. 6). The research questions of this study are as follows: (1) What are the features of environmental great powers? (2) Do environmental powers accept special responsibilities to combat climate change that correspond with their positions in global environmental politics? and (3) Have great powers securitized climate change, that is have they evaluated it as an issue that is related to maintaining international order and conserving stability in international society? The main argument of the book is that great powers have not developed a common understanding of their environmental responsibilities because they do not evaluate climate change as a systemic threat to the international system. Furthermore, whether it is a developed or developing country, the interests of great powers have blocked the securitization of environmental issues.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

102. Post-Post-Kemalizm: Türkiye Çalışmalarında Yeni Arayışlar

Author:
Oğuz Ufuk Haksever
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Post-Post-Kemalizm: Türkiye Çalışmalarında Yeni Arayışlar ( Post-Post-Kemalism: Search for Alternatives in Turkish Studies), edited by İlker Aytürk and Berk Esen, aims to present a multidimensional approach to a long-standing intellectual debate in the field of Turkish studies. As laid out by the editors in the preface, the book is based on the argument that the post-Kemalist paradigm is insufficient for making sense of Türkiye today, which prompts the search for an alternative paradigm (p. 14). The book, which consists of two sections, first details the failure of the post-Kemalist paradigm as seen through different disciplines, including political science, women’s studies, and foreign policy. The second part then provides a rethinking of the paradigm by presenting a critique of post-Kemalism from different thematic perspectives, including liberalism, culturalism, secularism, tutelage,1 Islamic studies, and political parties. The work aims to create an alternative perspective to contemporary Turkish studies and provides benefit to researchers who are interested in and are carrying out studies in this field.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Book Review, and Kemalism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

103. Can Europe and India deepen ties through critical raw materials cooperation?

Author:
Emil Havstrup and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Europe and India are rapidly embarking on a clean energy transition with the share of renewables skyrocketing in their respective energy mixes. This heightens concerns about dependence on critical raw materials (CRMs), such as cobalt, nickel and graphite, that are needed for renewable energy technologies, and whose supply chains are largely dominated by singular exporters such as China. It is not the case that Europe and India lack reserves of, for instance, lithium, but there are barriers to extracting them, and even if new mining activities are undertaken, it will take time. This policy brief reviews how the two parties are juggling with their dependence on China-dominated CRM dependent value chains. Both realise that derisking, diversification and/or decoupling cannot be easily and quickly achieved. While the EU is nervous about being drawn into a wider regional conflict between the United States and China, India’s attempts to deal with the China threat has drawn it into various issue-based strategic partnerships. It makes sense for the two blocs to reframe the discussion on de-risking and instead cooperate on joint investments into Research & Development into alternatives to some CRMs, developing competitive supply chains for new materials and cooperating on the re-use and recycling of existing materials.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Raw Materials
Political Geography:
China, Europe, India, and Asia

104. Enhancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific through Sub-Regional Initiatives: The Case of the BIMP-EAGA Initiative

Author:
Hafiizh Hashim
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Hafiizh Hashim, Head Consultant at Sociable & Co. and Assistant Lecturer Universiti at Brunei Darussalam, explains that "[g]reater US engagement in the BIMP-EAGA [a subregional grouping encompassing states and subnational jurisdiction in eastern Southeast Asia] could deepen US-ASEAN relations" and "find convergence between US and ASEAN Indo-Pacific frameworks."
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, ASEAN, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

105. Growing Foreign and Security Policy Challenges Face India’s Re-elected Modi Government

Author:
Frank O'Donnell
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Frank O'Donnell, Adjunct Fellow with the East-West Center in Washington and Nonresident Fellow in the Stimson Center South Asia Program, asserts that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces growing challenges in his third term, including Chinese hostilities in the Himalayas, pursuing more peaceful relations with Pakistan, and navigating turbulence in US-India affairs.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America

106. Japan, the Philippines, and the United States: A New Era of Partnership through Trilateral Defense and Security Cooperation

Author:
Miyoko Taniguchi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Miyoko Taniguchi, Professor of International Relations and Peace Studies at Miyazaki Municipal University in Japan, explains that the “strengthening of trilateral cooperation [between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines is a significant strategic move to institutionalize the deterrence and response capabilities of US allies and partners, especially to protect the territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and East China Sea.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Sovereignty, Partnerships, Deterrence, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

107. Strategic Realignments: Assessing the Impact of Taiwan's 2024 Elections on US-China Relations and Indo-Pacific Stability

Author:
Yih-Jye Hwang
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Yih-Jye Hwang, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, details the transformation of US Asia-Pacific policy from strategic ambiguity to a more explicit stance, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Pro-US Stance, and the 'doubt America' theory prevalent among Taiwanese opposition parties.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

108. The US Should Enhance Economic Engagement with Taiwan

Author:
Min-Hua Chiang
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Min-Hua Chiang, East-West Center Adjunct Fellow and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub, explains "Further strengthening Taiwan’s economy will make it more capable of bearing the financial burden of defending the island against a Chinese invasion…," and this imperative is compounded as Taiwan is “a critical player in America’s competition with China in the global semiconductor industry.”
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Science and Technology, Leadership, Regional Economy, and Economic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

109. Enhancing Military Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific: A US Foreign Area Officer’s Perspective

Author:
Matthew House
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Lt. Col. Matthew House, US Army Foreign Area Officer and EWC Adjunct Fellow, underscores “the pivotal role of military diplomacy in orchestrating significant global events...” and highlights “the invaluable expertise of [Foreign Area Officers] in managing complex international relations."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Education, Politics, and Military Diplomacy
Political Geography:
North Korea, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

110. US Perspectives on Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic and Roles for Partners

Author:
Rebecca Pincus
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Rebecca Pincus, Director of the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center, explains that "The development of Russia’s Arctic hydrocarbons is dependent on foreign investment and advanced technologies; as the West has withdrawn from Russia, China is an important, if imperfect, substitute..."
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

111. Arctic Geopolitics and Governance: An Indian Perspective

Author:
Anurag Bisen
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Capt. (IND) Anurag Bisen (Retd.), Senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation, explains that "India needs to step up its engagement to secure its increasing national interest in the Arctic" and "must also use its equities with all the Arctic states to facilitate collaboration, ensuring access to infrastructure, research areas, and data."
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Governance, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, India, North America, and Arctic

112. How Will the Prabowo Administration Shape Indonesia’s Foreign Policy as a Middle Power?

Author:
Calvin Khoe
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Mr. Calvin Khoe, Lead Analyst at FPCI Research & Analysis, explains that "Indonesia enjoys several comparative advantages that empower it as an activist nation and differentiate it as a middle power," and wagers that "President Prabowo will strive to make Indonesia an even more influential middle power."
Topic:
International Relations, Strategic Autonomy, Middle Power, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

113. United States, UNESCO, and International Relations through Cultural Heritage

Author:
Neel Kamal Chapagain
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Neel Kamal Chapagain, Professor at Ahmedabad University's Centre for Heritage Management, explains that "[c]ultural heritage is becoming a more prominent vehicle for building international ties" and "support for or opposition to global cultural heritage campaigns, like UNESCO, have been used [in US presidential campaigns] to make political statements."
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Culture, Heritage, UNESCO, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

114. Understated and Sometimes Contentious: A Perspective on the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asia

Author:
Ja Ian Chong
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Ja Ian Chong, Associate Professor of Political Science at National University of Singapore, explains that "[the] Australian-United States alliance is probably one of the most under-appreciated and misunderstood security partnerships in Southeast Asia," and it "helps undergird the status quo in Southeast Asia."
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Australia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

115. ​​Vietnamese Perspective on the Significance of the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asian Security​

Author:
Bich T. Tran
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
​Dr. Bich Tran​, ​Postdoctoral Fellow at National University of Singapore and Adjunct Fellow Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.​, ​examines the implications of the alliance for Southeast Asian security from the perspective of Vietnam, a country that has long pursued a policy of non-alignment while actively engaging with both the United States and Australia.​
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Regional Security, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Vietnam, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

116. ​​The Australia-US Alliance from a Thai Perspective: An Unbreakable or Unpinnable Partnership?​

Author:
Jittipat Poonkham
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
​Dr. Jittipat Poonkham​, ​ Associate Professor of International Relations at Thammasat University​, ​argues that "AUKUS, as well as the Australia-US alliance, seems to be an “unpinnable” alliance in the sense that it cannot be firmly pinned down in Thailand’s strategic mindset."​
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Partnerships, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
Australia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

117. Phosphate Mining in the South Pacific: Time for Scholars to Pay Attention

Author:
Nancy E. Wright
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Within the fields of international relations (IR) and comparative politics, phosphate mining and small South Pacific islands have been substantially neglected both on the global scene and in literature. Increased concerns and native islanders’ advocacy regarding climate change have brought small islands, including those of the South Pacific, closer to the forefront of IR scholarship. Still, the legacy of neglect persists. The islands’ individual and collective actions on climate change have not been as effective regarding phosphate mining, despite considerable resistance to continued mining activity in remaining phosphate reserves. This article describes this continuity of neglect as it traces key phases in the history of South Pacific phosphate mining in Nauru, Banaba in Kiribati, and Makatea in French Polynesia. These three islands with their differing sovereignty statuses—Nauru as a sovereign state, Banaba as an island of the sovereign state of Kiribati, and Makatea as an island of the French overseas collectivity of French Polynesia—offer a spectrum for analysis. This essay explores the role of state sovereignty, as identified by the Westphalian system, in shaping autonomy and self-determination over resources within the borders of a state, especially a post-colonial state. This next section explains the Westphalian system of state sovereignty and its failure to overcome the external control imposed by legacies of colonialism and resource extraction. In other words, legal sovereignty does not necessarily translate to de facto sovereignty.
Topic:
International Relations, Sovereignty, Natural Resources, Mining, Extractivism, and Phosphates
Political Geography:
South Pacific

118. Science Diplomacy in the Negotiation of International Business Contracts: A Critical Assessment

Author:
Suada Dzogovic, Anita Cucovic, and Armand Krasniqi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This study investigates the significance of science diplomacy at the convergence of politics, diplomacy, and science, emphasizing its heightened relevance in contemporary geopolitics and economic development. The aim was to elucidate the role of science diplomacy in optimizing negotiation outcomes concerning international business contracts by examining students’ perceptions of its impacts in such contexts. A theoretical analysis was initially conducted to identify the main themes shaping our questionnaire by employing a comprehensive research strategy that combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Data collection was carried out through a survey using a five-point Likert scale. The study revealed the students’ positive evaluation of science diplomacy, indicating their recognition and appreciation of its utilization in enhancing negotiation outcomes over international business contracts. While political leadership remains crucial in economic negotiations, our findings underscore the significant impact of science diplomacy in promoting international economic relations and facilitating domestic companies’ access to global markets. This research significantly contributes to our understanding of the multifaceted role of science diplomacy in global knowledge dissemination and problem-solving. It elucidates the importance of science diplomacy in international relations and academia, emphasizing its constructive impact on addressing complex challenges.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Communications, Business, Negotiation, Contracts, and Science Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

119. 2014-2024: A Decade of Sanctions and the Strengthening of Russia’s Financial Sovereignty

Author:
Alexander Turov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
The summer of 2024 has been extraordinarily hot. Climatologists say the average temperature may exceed median values for the entire history of observations. But it is already clear that the political barometer has reached its peak this year, which is certainly having a direct impact on international relations and the global economy as a whole. The past months following the triumphant conclusion of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which marked the beginning of the collapse of the neocolonial system of global economic relations, and subsequent significant events in international affairs have confirmed Russia’s clear course toward financial sovereignty. For more than a decade now, that course has been pursued by the West, which has become unfriendly in a fairly short historical period. Yet in previous periods of our country’s history – the building of socialism, communism, advanced socialism, perestroika, and finally liberalism – the West actively used at an affordable price our fuel and raw material resources, which formed the basis of the Western economy and consumer society. The scientific achievements of our scholars also contributed to common global progress, as evidenced by the numerous Nobel Prizes they were awarded. So why, after three decades of euphoria based on the development of the market economy and the liberalization of everything, both necessary and unnecessary, has Russia once again been fenced off by NATO’s walls and subjected to economic sanctions, which essentially amount to an economic blockade? This happened before, during the early days of the young Soviet Republic, but the blockade lasted less than a hundred days – from October 1919 to January 1920 – because the level of understanding of global economic ties that formed the basis of politics and diplomacy among the old Western leaders was far higher than it is among today’s leaders, who seem more inclined to discuss issues concerning minority orientations than to concern themselves with the well-being and pressing needs of the majority.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Sanctions, Economy, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

120. The Changing Conceptual Landscape of the Russian War in Ukraine (2014-Present) and Syria (2011-Present)

Author:
Piotr Pietrzak
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to present and compare the main developments in the Russian wars in Ukraine and Syria by considering the main patterns, parallels, and changing trajectories that could shed more light onto both of these war zones, which are highly interlinked due to Russia’s leading role in both. It analytically, comparatively, and contemplatively approaches those developments by highlighting multiple similarities and the main differences in global responses to these conflicts. Both conflicts should be seen as highly unpredictable, dynamic, and unnecessarily extended asymmetric proxy wars in which global powers test their new military doctrines and their competitors' responses to their unconventional actions and other unsolicited and indirect interferences in the local dynamism of both wars. Unlike in Syria, the Ukrainian war zone is wholly transformative and ready for the adoption of partial hybridization and the utilization of the new software-defined warfare in combination with conventional weapons.
Topic:
International Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

121. Mask Off: Implications of the EU’s “Geopolitical Awakening” for its Relations with the MENA Region

Author:
Johannes Späth
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced European foreign policy-makers to reassess their view of international relations and reconceptualise the European Union (EU)’s approach to it. A broad consensus has emerged that the foreign policy of the EU needs to become more geopolitical. A sentiment echoed and championed by Ursula von der Leyen, who, since assuming the role of President of the European Commission in December 2019, has actively advocated for a more assertive and strategic EU presence on the global stage (Bayer, 2019). The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, has labelled these developments as “the awakening of geopolitical Europe” (Borrell, 2022). He further insisted that a more geopolitical European outlook on the world should not be temporary but should become the “new normal” (Borrell, 2022). This suggests a fundamental and lasting shift in the EU’s approach to external relations. Given the ambiguity of the term ‘geopolitics’, which has at least five different meanings (Kundani, 2023), many questions about the EU’s new normal remain to be answered: What does a more geopolitical foreign policy entail? What would be the implications of such a new approach regarding the European Neighbourhood, in particular the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region? And how can such an approach be reconciled with the EU’s liberal principles? This paper aims to assess these questions from a realist perspective. The article proceeds as follows. The first part examines the different conceptualisations of geopolitics and assesses which of them EU policy-makers refer to. The second part examines whether a more geopolitical EU foreign policy towards the MENA region can be seen as a paradigm shift or rather a continuation of existing policies. The third part considers how the “geopolitical awakening” can be reconciled with the EU’s liberal principles. The paper concludes by drawing on the findings to develop concrete recommendations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

122. Security Studies: Classic to Post-Modern Approaches

Author:
Vildan Meydan
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
What kinds of security threats do states currently face in international relations? What areas do security studies cover in the discipline? Contrary to the military security-oriented structure of the Cold War period, the new era requires a more inclusive and alternative approach to security studies due to the effects of globalization. Therefore, many areas that were seen as low politics issues in the early years of the discipline have begun to play an important role in shaping today’s international system and the security perception of states. For someone seeking to answer the above questions, Security Studies: Classic to Post-Modern Approaches, edited by Arda Özkan and Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu, is a good starting point. Within the framework of its eighteen chapters, the book is an important reference that not only deals with the classical approaches of the discipline, such as military issues, but also explores post-modern approaches and contemporary topics, such as energy, environment, migration, and so on.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Book Review
Political Geography:
Global Focus

123. Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion

Author:
Nurhayat Kavrak
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Turkey’s political history has seen recurring shifts between democratic ideals and authoritarian tendencies, notably during the two decades of the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) rule. This transition marked a departure from a relatively democratic façade that emerged in response to the European Union (EU) accession process towards a more authoritarian regime characterized by increased government control and curtailment of civil liberties.1 It is a shift accentuated after the 2013 Gezi protests which culminated in a significant regime change in 2018. This transformation was marked by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of power through constitutional amendments, leading to the transition from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system. To comprehend this transformation, it is imperative to examine the interplay between economic dynamics and the state within the neo-liberal capitalist system, aligning with Poulantzas’ observations on global trends.2 It can be argued that the accumulation and state crises, exacerbated by the 2008 global economic crisis, have contributed to Turkey’s authoritarian shift in parallel with global developments. Originating from a 2018 workshop at Middle East Technical University, Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion provides a historical-sociological perspective on Turkey’s state crises, serving as a vital resource for comprehending authoritarianism and class-state relations and offering an in-depth exploration of the AKP regime’s transformation, presenting a continuum of its history rather than a rigid division between democratic and authoritarian phases.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Book Review, AKP, and Coercion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and European Union

124. From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries

Author:
Ioannis Nioutsikos, Konstantinos Travlos, and Magdalini Daskalopoulou
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Recent developments in the operationalization of mutual military buildups raise some questions about the findings of the quantitative literature on the association of mutual military buildups (MMB) and militarized dispute (MID) onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads. We use the novel data to evaluate that relationship, working within the Steps to War explanatory framework. The Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are puzzles for the framework, since on the one they have had a frequent presence of the Steps to War but have far fewer wars than we would expect. Our analysis indicates that despite that puzzling incongruity the Greece - Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are good fits for the Steps to War, except when it comes to the role of mutual military buildups. We find indicators that while the other factors of Steps to War have a positive combined association with MID onset, the inclusion of mutual military buildups renders such an association statistically insignificant. On the other hand, we do find indicators that mutual military buildups may contribute to the transition from Lesser to Severe Rivalry, as per the Steps to Rivalry. Finally, the dyads reach infection periods that make war more likely as per the Steps to War. But many expected wars do not take place. We posit two possible explanations for future research: deterrence, or major power managerial coordination.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Political Science, Ottoman Empire, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

125. Czech-Russian Relations. Russian Disinformation Campaign

Author:
Andrzej Jacuch
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
After the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, the Czech Republic became fully aware of the threats posed by the Kremlin despite President Zeman has denied the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine and has criticised the EU sanctions against Russia. Czechia belongs to the group of countries through which Russia influences the EU, to gradually and deliberately erode its structures. Russia exerts a strong influence on the Czech Republic by non-military means, including disinformation and propaganda, the activities of secret services, and penetration of its economy and specifically its energy sector. The article aims to answer the question about the role of Russian disinformation and propaganda in the context of Russian influence in the Czech Republic. The role of Russian disinformation and propaganda and how Russia influences Czechia is extensively analysed. The main hypothesis is that Russia treats the Czech Republic as a key state for espionage and disinformation activities and as a zone of influence, undermining the sovereignty of the Czech Republic and the role of NATO and the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Resilience, Disinformation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Czech Republic

126. EU-ASEAN Political Relations in the Light of Values and Norms of the International Liberal Order

Author:
Joanna Starzyk-Sulejewska
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article aims to analyse the significance of liberal norms and values in the development of political relations between the EU and ASEAN, an issue which has been only selectively analysed in academic literature. At the same time, the topic of the article fits into a broader landscape of issues associated with the development of relations between international intergovernmental organisations in contemporary international relations, only partially studied in Polish and international literature to date. Considering the essential framework of classic constructivism, as well as significant contributions added by critical constructivism, the article formulates a research hypothesis whereby the European Union and ASEAN are organisations which, while recognising the importance of liberal values and norms, take a different approach to their promotion and protection. The European Union, which attempted to act towards ASEAN as an interpreter and diffuser of the aforementioned values and norms in the 1990s, adopted a pragmatic approach over time, in response to ASEAN’s stance and actions, limiting its role in this respect and taking regional conditions and dependencies into account. In order to verify this hypothesis, three research questions were formulated, namely: What is the place of liberal norms and values in the EU and ASEAN policy documents? Is the respect and protection of liberal norms and values an important element declared in mutual relations? How do both sides approach the implementation of liberal norms and values in practice in selected cases? This article is structured around these issues and discusses the significance of liberal norms and values in EU and ASEAN policy documents, the place and role of liberal norms and values in documents underpinning EUASEAN relations and in EU documents formulated towards ASEAN and the Southeast Asian region and also provides an analysis of EU and ASEAN policy towards Myanmar.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Liberalism, Norms, ASEAN, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

127. The Re-integration of Regional Studies as a Sub-Discipline of International Relations

Author:
Jakub Zajaczkowski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The aim of this article is to analyse the ontological and epistemological dimensions of the main stages of the development of regional studies as a sub-discipline of international relations. The research problem of the article focuses on the interdependence and significance of regional studies as a sub-discipline within the scholarly discipline of international relations. The issue of regionalism and the region arose in the period of the establishment of international relations as a scholarly discipline during the interwar years, and was further conceptualized in the 1950s and 1960s during the Cold War period. The status of regional studies was then marginalized in methodological, ontological and epistemological discourse by the main theoretical trends of international relations. As a result, it was only after the end of the Cold War that we witnessed a gradual, systemic process of reintegration of regional studies within the discipline. This article argues that the reintegration of regional studies into the discipline of international relations is a function of two parallel processes that are interrelated: the transformation of the liberal international order after the end of the Cold War and increased pluralism in scholarly discourse within the discipline of international relations. These developments and their associated academic implications have contributed to the consolidation and strengthening of regional studies as a major subdiscipline of international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Liberalism, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

128. Foreign Intelligence Hackers and Their Place in the PRC Intelligence Community

Author:
Matthew Brazil
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Leaked files from iS00N reveal deep insights into the PRC’s intelligence operations, highlighting an intensified global security offensive as well as issues within the intelligence community. iS00N’s growth is tied to Xi Jinping’s aggressive policies and demonstrates the importance of private contractors in fulfilling the PRC’s increased intelligence and security needs. The leaks expose employee dissatisfaction and underscore iS00N’s critical role in intelligence gathering and job provision, reflecting the contractor’s complex relationship with the PRC government. The exposure raises questions about the role and regulation of hacking contractors in the PRC, potentially leading to investigations and reforms that could affect the PRC’s intelligence strategy and international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Intelligence, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
China and Asia

129. Renavigating a Soft Power Relationship Between the West and Tunisia

Author:
Oussama Boudhrioua
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Without a sea change, U.S. and European soft power will continue to erode in Tunisia at a moment of increasing crisis for the country. For decades, Tunisians have viewed their country’s relationship with the West as a relationship built on a sense of mutual alliance. Tunisia has long seen itself as a vital ally for both the United States and Europe; in 2012 a host of bilateral and multilateral agreements solidified the economic and political ties between Tunisia and Europe, and in 2015 Washington deemed Tunisia a Major Non-NATO Ally. These relationships span much of the past century; aside from being under French and Italian control during the colonial period, Tunisia became a key site of conflict in the North African theater during World War II, when Allied forces eventually broke into the Italian peninsula from the south. And for many Tunisians coming of age in the 1990s, the United States was seen as the ideal model of a superpower. Despite these deep ties between Tunisia and the West, the true nature of the country’s relationship with the United States and Europe continues to be unclear and ever-changing. However, geopolitical shifts and harsh realities have snuffed out that once-bright optimism. In Tunisia, the recent actions of the United States in the region have damaged its reputation, perhaps irreparably. This was evident in the United States' stance on the ongoing war in Gaza since last October, where it did not intervene effectively to stop the war using its diplomatic leverage. Moreover China, Russia, and other powers are steadily making economic and political inroads at the expense of the United States and Europe.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

130. Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 2)

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region. As discussed in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch, Turkey’s Syria strategy is rather circuitous, potentially involving simultaneous negotiations with the Assad regime and the United States while running the risk of damaging relations with Washington if the two governments fail to coordinate their moves. In contrast, Ankara’s Iraq strategy—which boils down to promoting Turkish money over Iranian guns—is more straightforward and likely to receive U.S. backing. To this end, Ankara has conceived the Development Road, a proposed trade network that would run across Iraq and Turkey, connecting Asian and European markets via the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Initially, the project ran counter to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a U.S.-proposed route stretching from India through the Arabian Peninsula and Levant to Europe. Yet the Gaza war and ongoing Houthi maritime attacks have raised security concerns about commercial shipping through the Red Sea, suddenly boosting the prospects of the Development Road at IMEC’s expense. With Gulf money behind the project, Turkish policymakers predict the Development Road’s initial routes could open as early as 2027. Washington should consider throwing its support behind this initiative as well, particularly if it needs to counterbalance Iranian influence in Baghdad following a full or partial U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

131. The Void Above: The Future of Space Warfare and a Call to Update the Rule of International Space Law

Author:
Alan Cunningham
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
In an age where space warfare is becoming more likely and a militarized space is already a reality, it is imperative to develop a strong legal framework to try and prevent nation-states from engaging in warfare. By implementing legal standards, improving on the existing legal framework, and taking input from outside legal sources, outer space can be made safer and the potential for armed conflict more protected against.
Topic:
International Relations, International Law, International Security, Military Affairs, Space, Warfare, and Space Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Space

132. Searching for a Place in Global IR Through Exceptionalism: Turkey and the Mediation for Peace Initiative

Author:
Radiye Funda Karadeniz and Gonca Oğuz Gök
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This study is an attempt to rethink exceptionalism both in Turkish Foreign Policy and in Global IR. It critically engages with Turkey’s contribution to the Global IR debate within the discourse of exceptionalism in Turkish foreign policy over its role in the Mediation for Peace Initiative (MPI). Following Nymalm and Plagemann (2019), we rethink exceptionalism used in Global IR, critically analyzing Turkey’s role in the MPI within the framework of internationalist exceptionalism. In doing so, we aim to unbox exceptionalism in Global IR and understand how some exceptional foreign policy discourses of non-Western states may contribute to the interconnectedness between regional worlds, as well as the circulation of ideas and norms between the global and local levels.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace, Mediation, and Exceptionalism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

133. The Berlin Pulse 2024/2025 (full issue)

Author:
Hanno Pevkur, Stephanie Zonszein, Majed Al-Ansari, Halyna Yanchenko, and Boris Pistorius
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:
Welcome to the eight’s edition of The Berlin Pulse! As every year, we compare international expectations of Germany with public opinion in Germany. But this year’s edition is special, as it comes off the press with one part of our representative survey conducted right after the polls have closed in the United States and the German coalition collapsed. Thanks to our editors Julia Ganter and Jonathan Lehrer, this issue underlines that Germany must decide what image it wants to project and what international expectations it wants to meet. Bangladeshi analyst Shafqat Munir and Russian opposition politician Andrei Pivovarov want Germany to live up to its moral aspirations and support the revival of democratic values in their countries. Israeli journalist Mairav Zonszein argues that precisely Germany’s reputation as a defender of democratic norms complicates its arms support to Israel, calling on Berlin to ensure its weapons are not used in human rights violations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian politican Halyna Yanchenko urges Germany to supply more arms to help end Russia’s illegal war of aggression. These expectations illustrate that Germany’s international standing as a partner in upholding international law, human rights and democracy is currently at stake. Berlin faces a complex balancing act, striving to avoid perceptions of selectively applying international law. Estonia’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur argues that half-hearted actions will not suffice – or as he puts it, ʻDo we want Ukraine to survive, or do we want it to win?ʼ The German population has a strong opinion on many of these issues. While 57 per cent of German respondents still want Berlin to support Ukraine militarily only 25 per cent want military support for Israel. Despite these dilemmas, it is encouraging that 46 per cent of German respondents want their country to be more engaged on international crises. It is the highest level since we started surveying this in 2017 and it shows that, after three years of war in Ukraine and a year of war in the Middle East, Germans want change and want to see Germany driving change. Thanks to our partner, the Pew Research Center, we know that Germans and Americans have trusted each other to make a change in international politics over the past four years. But our new figures, conducted after the US election, show that this partnership may be threatened: 79 per cent of Germans think President Donald Trump will damage transatlantic relations. But only 35 per cent of Germans think that Germany should step in to lead the West. It is time to decide, Germany. What kind of international player do we want to be, in which areas do we want to go all in? The following pages can help us make difficult decisions in difficult times.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Taliban, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, India, Germany, and United States of America

134. The EU’s Global Role: A Third Node of Power

Author:
Mikaela Gavas and W. Gyude Moore
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
In recent years, a quest for economic security and strategic autonomy have come to define the European Union (EU)’s politics. The need to compete globally for the finite resources required for the green and digital transitions, and rivalries between the US and China for global dominance, are all driving this agenda. And while the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine highlighted countries’ global dependencies, deepening geopolitical tensions have brought national security considerations to the fore. At the same time, the rise of populist parties across Europe is fuelling calls for countries’ national interests to play the defining role in development cooperation. This presents a challenging environment for EU development cooperation. Caught up in this new paradigm, development cooperation is increasingly viewed as a lever of hard power and an instrument of influence which can be used to reinforce Europe’s strategic autonomy and economic security. With European interests central to EU development cooperation strategy, the climate of distrust between Europe and its partners is being heightened, given the not-so-distant memory of European vaccine “nationalism” during the COVID-19 pandemic, the different standards some Europeans apply with regards to fossil fuel exploration and the negative repercussions the Green Deal will have on African countries’ growth and development. However, shaping EU development policy in this fashion, with geostrategic interests at its forefront will be more detrimental than helpful for the EU in the medium to long-term, and carries the risk of fuelling conflicts of interest with partners. Geo-economic fragmentation and a trust deficit when it comes to governments and societal institutions are threatening our ability to address pressing global challenges. In Africa, this fracturing is evident in the plethora of Africa plus-one summits, for example, the first ever Korea-Africa summit. Instead of using multilateral vehicles to address development cooperation, this new environment has spawned a diversion of resources toward more bilateral initiatives, where the geopolitical returns are direct and attributable. In this piece, we propose a reset of the EU’s international relations narrative and “third way” for the EU to position itself as a global development player.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, European Union, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

135. China-Taiwan Relations and the EU: How European Soft Power Could Help Reduce Cross-Strait Tensions

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought back to the spotlight the question of China’s (officially the People’s Republic of China, PRC) potential attack on Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC). Beijing claims that the island is one of its provinces, whereas the current Taiwanese government maintains that it is already an independent country. A conflict over Taiwan – or even a Chinese blockade of the island – would have immediate economic and political implications for Europe which will likely impose sanctions on the PRC, the EU’s second-largest trading partner.[1] The EU is not a security actor in East Asia, but has some formidable – and unique – soft power assets that could be leveraged to promote dialogue and understanding between China and Taiwan, with the objective of reducing tensions in the area and maintaining the status quo.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

136. Senegal Redefines International Partnerships

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The new Senegalese authorities, who vowed radical reforms during the campaign, have begun a review of the state’s international relations. As part of this process, they plan, among other things, to renegotiate the fisheries agreement with the EU, expel French troops, and reform or leave the regional monetary union. Despite the revolutionary rhetoric, similar to that of the populist military regimes from the Sahel, the Senegalese approach to the economy and regional politics is rational and, in the long term, aligned with EU interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Populism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Senegal

137. The European Union between the United States and China: should we choose between equidistance and following?

Author:
Philippe Etienne
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The competition between the world's two major powers structures all international relations and influences the choices made by all other countries. The latter fear the consequences of tensions between the two giants and, in the main, want to avoid having to choose. But the problem is not the same everywhere. To put it simply, China benefits in the "global South" from a certain hostility towards the West, while the United States can play on the fear aroused by the emergence of Chinese power, which no longer hesitates to resort to power relations, especially in Eastern Asia[1]. Against this backdrop, Europe is in a delicate situation. It must contend with its assimilation to the United States as being part of the “West” which is increasingly rejected. Although it shares much with its American ally, particularly the values of democracy and security arrangements, it does not always have the same interests as the United States and must preserve its room for manoeuvre if it is not to be dragged into decisions in which it has no part. Before examining how the European Union is facing up to this challenge, and how it should behave in the future, the driving forces and prospects of the Sino-American rivalry require exploration.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, European Union, Global South, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

138. Brazil-ASEAN Relations and the Energy Transition

Author:
Beatriz Pfeifer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
On the occasion of the XXXII meeting of the Analysis Group on China, Ambassador Piragibe dos Santos Terragô, Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director of the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) and Juliana Rangel do Nascimento, Energy Research Analyst at Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) share their views on Brazil-ASEAN relations and the opportunities for economic cooperation and tackling global challenges, cooperation in the energy sector and what benefits Brazil can derive from this partnership.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Partnerships, Economic Cooperation, ASEAN, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

139. Falsedades y mitos en los estudios sobre migraciones: consecuencias para las Relaciones Internacionales

Author:
José Miguel Bravo and Pablo Rey-García
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La reproducción de nociones falsas y mitos en los estudios sobre migración disminuye la credibilidad en su conexión con las Relaciones Internacionales y la Seguridad. Para evitar eso, proponemos la utilización del escepticismo creativo como herramienta académica. De esta manera, valoramos el área de estudios sobre migración analizando su desarrollo institucional y la calidad de sus resultados de investigación. Como segundo paso, describimos los seis mitos más persistentes en los estudios sobre migración en las siguientes áreas: en el del Derecho; en el de las Políticas Públicas; en el de la Demografía; en el de la Economía; en el de la Cooperación y el desarrollo y, en el de la Cultura, por la importancia que para estas investigaciones tienen las distintas etnias y religiones. Concluye el artículo con ejemplos de las implicaciones que el uso de mitos tiene para las relaciones internacionales entre Estados miembros de la Unión Europea.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, Immigration, Myths, and Pseudoscience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

140. The Future of Liberal World Order from a Central and Eastern European Perspective

Author:
Peter Rada and Laura Nyilas
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
It is now generally accepted that the global order is shifting, but the literature is divided on how. Consequently, it is not surprising that there is a lack of strong scholarship on the characteristics of the order from a Central and Eastern European (CEE) perspective. Therefore, this article aims to explore the future of the Liberal World Order (LWO) from this perspective through the lens of mainstream theories. The article looks at the geopolitical dynamics of the region and the evolving strategic perceptions of the LWO. It examines how CEE, traditionally seen as the frontier of the LWO (EU and NATO), is navigating the complexities of the current global political landscape in the light of the changing order. The second part of the article specifically analyses the security perceptions of CEE governments. The article seeks to contribute to the understanding of the future trajectory of the LWO, the potential implications for global peace and security, and the interplay of realism and liberalism in shaping our understanding of this trajectory from the CEE perspective.
Topic:
International Relations, Geopolitics, Liberalism, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

141. The Impact of the Ukraine War on Antarctic Geopolitics Through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Author:
Luiz Octavio Gaviao and Michael Bilac Barbosa de Oliveira
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impact of the Ukrainian War on the geopolitics of Antarctica. Beyond the borders of the countries involved, the most immediate and noticeable impact of a conflict of this nature is evident in the economic environment. However, international relations are tested or shaken, exerting pressure on treaties and cooperation agreements between countries, through the reappearance of past political issues. In 1959, the Antarctic Treaty sought to protect the continent from territorial pressures capable of affecting its natural balance, but this type of conflict compromises international cooperation and brings to light old interests in resource exploration in that region. This complex system, composed of cause and effect forces that involve the interests of the different countries involved in Antarctic geopolitics, was quantitatively modeled by cognitive maps, which explore artificial intelligence concepts to evaluate the behavior of these forces. The results indicated trends in relation to 12 driving forces selected from the literature and evaluated by experts from the Brazilian Antarctic Program, allowing the evaluation of the dynamics of the system over time.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Antarctica

142. Turkey’s Dilemma and Strategic Stability

Author:
Jean-Pier de Vasconcellos Esquia and José Miguel Quedi Martins
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article deals with Turkey’s international relations and the impact of its choices in the International System (IS) in this new era marked by the return of competition between the world powers. Specifically, it discusses the Turkish dilemma, reduced to two possible courses of action: between adherence to revolutionary behavior, or association with the institutions of the Emerging Industrial Axis. This dilemma is confronted with Turkey’s trajectory since the end of the Ottoman Empire, in an explanatory historical effort. As for strategic stability, it should be clarified that it is understood as the set of elements that shape the ‘rules’ of the game in a multipolar world. The question that guides the research is how will Turkey’s international insertion take place? The hypothesis that runs through the text is that, unlike other times when Turkey has been subjugated by international constraints, this time it will be able to choose its form of insertion into the IS. The article is divided into five parts. The first concerns the predominance of necessity in Turkey’s IR trajectory. The second deals with the legacy of extra-economic coercion, which the US used during unipolarity, and the challenges this poses for strategic stability - which must be approached from a multidimensional perspective. The third part deals with Turkey’s insertion into the South-South Axis - it remains to be seen whether it will also join its institutions. The fourth part deals with revolutionary behavior. Finally, the fifth and last part deals with the role of the Middle East in the outcome of the Turkish dilemma.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Strategic Stability, International System, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

143. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 3)

Author:
Peter Krause
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The struggle over normalization and the future of American-Arab-Israeli relations in the MENA region
Topic:
International Relations, Normalization, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

144. Is Israel’s Star Fading in Latin America?

Author:
Jodor Jalit
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The Latin American response to Israel’s war on Gaza could help strengthen the rich but neglected cultural ties with Arab states
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Latin America

145. Jordan: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Arab Barometer’s Wave VIII survey captures public opinion in Jordan at a critical time. As the COVID-era restrictions and changes receded, many of the challenges Jordan had been facing over the previous decade returned to the fore. From the early 2010s until Arab Barometer’s 2022 survey, there had been consistent declines in views of government and economic challenges continued to mount. However, in the weeks before the planned survey, the events of October 7, 2023 shook the region, but particularly Jordan as a country bordering Israel. Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza deeply affected Jordanian public opinion, particularly given the large number of Jordanians of Palestinian descent. Results from the survey strongly suggest that the impact from the war in Gaza not only shaped views of international actors, but also influenced perceptions of domestic issues in Jordan. In effect, it is difficult to overstate the importance of this issue for Jordanian public opinion or to accurately understand it separately from the situation in Gaza.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Survey, Freedom, Gender, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

146. Iraq Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
If uncertainty was the key theme reverberating through Arab Barometer’s 2022 seventh wave findings in Iraq, emergent stability—however slight—is the main one echoing its eighth wave, at least with respect to domestic politics. To be sure, the country still faces many challenges, and protests over corruption, elections, women’s rights, climate change-induced power outages, among other issues have continued to episodically arise. But public sentiment appears to be responding to the efforts of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s government, which has begun to tackle some of the country’s most pressing issues. For Iraqi citizens, corruption remains the biggest challenge facing the country, though there is a considerable increase in the share of citizens who suggest that the government is tackling the issue. Economic grievances, chief among which are a lack of jobs, also continue to preoccupy citizens. More than half of all Iraqis are confronting food insecurity, and sizable numbers are adapting negative coping strategies to access food. Even more pressing than the affordability of food is the affordability and availability of housing. Still, a small but rising share of citizens positively assess the government’s efforts to create jobs and curb inflation. So, despite ongoing challenges, optimism about the future of the economy is on the rise, signifying the reversal of an otherwise downward trend that had been effect since 2013.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

147. Enhancing Trilateral Security Cooperation: Korea, the United States, and Indonesia

Author:
Sook-yeon Lee
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Sook-yeon Lee argues that Indonesia serves as an ideal partner for the United States and South Korea to advance their objectives in the Indo-Pacific region and that the three countries should expand areas for trilateral cooperation. While the bilateral South Korea-Indonesia and US-Indonesia partnerships have deepened over the past several decades, trilateral security cooperation remains unexplored due to the differing scopes of cooperation between the two bilateral relationships. Lee outlines several areas in which the three countries should expand trilateral cooperation and contribute to strengthening regional security. Due to Indonesia’s desire for neutrality and South Korea’s concerns regarding its ties with China, Lee recommends a cautious approach to initiating trilateral cooperation in maritime security and counterterrorism before gradually expanding to additional areas. Such an approach both addresses Indonesia’s immediate cooperative needs and aligns with areas that South Korea and the United States have already identified within their respective partnerships with Indonesia. However, the primary challenge facing trilateral security cooperation is maintaining mutual trust and ensuring the leaders of all three countries are committed to upholding trust as the foundation of trilateralism. Domestic politics and foreign policy considerations of the three countries further complicate efforts to enhance trilateral security cooperation. Thus, Lee recommends that the three countries strengthen strategic dialogues to understand and respect the differences in each country’s respective core interests to ensure the establishment of a durable trilateral partnership between South Korea, Indonesia, and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

148. Camp David and US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Security and Defense Cooperation: Consolidating the Northeast Asia Anchor in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Yasuyo Sakata
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Yasuyo Sakata provides a historical overview of US-Japan-ROK defense cooperation in Northeast Asia, from the Korean War to the Camp David Summit, explaining how the trilateral partnership was redefined as an Indo-Pacific partnership and incorporated the “Northeast Asia Anchor.” Sakata argues that Japan and the United States have taken the lead in reconstructing the Indo-Pacific security architecture through their Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategies, and that the US-Japan-ROK trilateral relationship has been incorporated into this framework alongside other alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS. Sakata explores how Korea’s shift back towards the Indo-Pacific under President Yoon’s leadership has allowed for expansion of the scope of US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation, as affirmed during the Camp David Summit. However, Sakata contends that a comprehensive defense approach is needed in the Indo-Pacific involving allies and partners to build upon this foundation and strengthen defense and security cooperation amidst the challenges posed by North Korea, the Taiwan Strait, maritime security, cybersecurity, and space. Action is essential, as time is running out to solidify gains from the Camp David Summit and build a stable relationship. Therefore, Sakata argues that Japan and South Korea should strengthen relations deliberately yet cautiously before domestic politics potentially spoil recent progress.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

149. Clean Energy Pragmatism as a Spark for US-South Korea Relations

Author:
Elan Sykes
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The United States and South Korea are close allies, committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and home to advanced industrial economies. Pragmatic cooperation on clean energy technologies would aid their shared goals in climate mitigation, energy security, and supply chain resilience. US-South Korea cooperation should include pooling shared technological expertise, aligning market and carbon accounting rules, investing in constrained supply chains, and adopting well-targeted policies to encourage research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects for early-stage technologies like clean hydrogen and advanced nuclear power plants. Clean energy pragmatism requires acknowledgment of the constraints facing each country to ensure policies are properly scoped, politically durable, and revised iteratively in light of observed outcomes. Neither country can succeed in this multidecadal transition alone. With their shared industrial capacity, world-class innovators engaged in joint research and development, and properly aligned market standards, however, both countries can solidify their position to achieve 21st-century energy security and economic growth. Yet, policy design and implementation are never complete unless a problem is entirely solved, and climate change is not a problem that can be solved over a single presidential term. Political shifts hold the potential to either undo progress or help spur new action.
Topic:
International Relations, Science and Technology, Renewable Energy, Supply Chains, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

150. Managing Chaos

Author:
Michael Miklaucic
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
If it seems like the world is descending into chaos the feeling is justified. Thirty-five thousand dead in Gaza. Nearing 300,000 killed in Ukraine. War in the Red Sea. Jihadist insurrectionists in the Sahel. Nuclear saber-rattling by the Kremlin. North Korea and Iran threatening their neighbors and everyone else. Escalating Chinese intimidation of Taiwan. Complete breakdown of Transatlantic relations with Russia. Partial breakdown of U.S. relations with China. The world seems to be coming unglued. The rules-based global order that set the norms and more-or-less governed behavior between states for the past nearly 80 years is frayed—possibly beyond repair. Citizens everywhere are exhausted, barraged relentlessly by the 24/7 news cycle with constant reportage so grim as to be anaesthetizing. Global order is a universal public good, however it is neither self-executing nor auto-emergent. It emerges from the struggle—sometimes violent—of competing principles of governance, often but not exclusively manifested by states. Those principles are expressed by a specific conceptual vocabulary and constitute a paradigm. It is permanently in flux. Today we are experiencing a paradigm shift and global order cannot be taken for granted. We are veering toward chaos.
Topic:
International Relations, Armed Conflict, International Order, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

151. ​​Malaysian perspectives of the US-Australia alliance in Southeast Asia​

Author:
Thomas Daniel
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Malaysia is no stranger to the US-Australia alliance, a fixture of the post-World War II Indo-Pacific regional order. Both countries are important partners to Malaysia across a range of endeavors, such as trade and investment, defense, education, and institutional and cultural exchanges. Bilateral and multilateral relations are resilient and remain functional and productive despite occasional political spats. In recent years, however, the focus and proactive thrusts of this alliance, shaped by its perception of the evolving strategic and security realities in the Asia Pacific, have become a conundrum for Malaysian policymakers.
Topic:
International Relations, Alliance, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Australia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

152. A Triple Bind: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the West

Author:
Yasmine Farouk
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
When Saudi Arabia and Iran announced that they were restoring diplomatic relations in Beijing, the West was conspicuously absent. The trilateral statement, issued on 10 March 2023, followed two years of Iraqi, then Omani, mediation that stopped short of ending the Saudi-Iranian rift. Between 2016 and 2021, Saudi Arabia and Iran had no diplomatic interactions with each other, but in actuality were both talking to—and at—the West. Iranian officials often blamed Saudi Arabia’s close ties with the West for their bilateral problems, while Saudi Arabia accused the West of failing to contain Iran’s Islamic Revolution and not providing enough support to the Kingdom. Such narratives underplayed the power that both Riyadh and Teheran had in shaping the Western role in their relationship. That power triggered different dynamics in the bilateral relationship in reaction to similar, and at times even identical, Western policies.1 Two recent cycles of Western policy to isolate and sanction Iran, to engage in indirect military escalation with Iran, and attempt rapprochement with Saudi Arabia are cases in point. These cycles instigated two different dynamics in Riyadh and Tehran’s relationship. Between 2018 and 2021, President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran fed into soaring levels of hostility between the two countries, which culminated in an unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia in 2019, which Saudi Arabia and the West accused Iran of committing. Since 2023, Western sanctions and military escalation with Iran have been met with a slow but steady Saudi-Iranian détente, rather than interrupting it. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had differing reactions to Western policies, motivated in part by political and socioeconomic changes inside both Saudi Arabia and Iran and broader structural changes in the region. Factors reconfiguring the Western component in the Saudi-Iranian relationship include a common perception that the United States is disenchanted, if not disengaged, with the Middle East, the absence of a European or regional collective alternative to the U.S. role, and a more diverse international system that raised the profile of China and Russia in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Global West

153. La Unión Europea frente a los retos de la multipolaridad

Author:
Andrés De Castro
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
This issue of the Journal of International Security Studies (RESI) addresses the challenges facing the European Union in the context of multipolarity. This situation arose after the collapse of the unipolar context (1989-2014), in which the United States - as a result of its many mistakes - lost its privileges, obtained after winning the Cold War at the end of the bipolar era (1945-1989). For the purposes of this introduction, we set 2014 as the beginning of the multipolar moment, although there is a great and necessary debate among academics in our field. There are two main arguments for the year 2014. First, the fact that former President Obama threatened former President Bashar al-Assad with military intervention in Syria if he used chemical weapons again and failed to do so: weakness. Second, Russia's annexation of Crimea in the same year. A key issue for Russia's national interest and therefore also for that of the United States. How to block it: weakness. The aim of this issue has therefore been to analyse the role of the European Union, or lack thereof, in the context of multipolarity. To this end, we have benefited greatly from the academic context that has been generated by the research project ‘Competition between great powers: multipolarity as reflected in regional scenarios’, which I have had the honour of directing and which has obtained funding from a competitive call of the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED).
Topic:
European Union, Multipolarity, and International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, United States of America, and North America

154. The European Union: Object or Subject in International Relations

Author:
Yolanda Valverde
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War marked the beginning of a unipolar world order in which the United States championed a liberal vision of international relations. This narrative was not only deeply embedded in the collective imagination but also profoundly shaped the formulation of foreign policies in Western countries, the development of the European project, and its predominance within the academic sphere. However, the expansion of the "liberal hegemony" has fallen short of the expectations of its proponents: neither has the end of history been realized, nor do we live in perpetual peace, nor has power ceased to matter to the principal actors on the international stage—the states. This article examines the impact of shifts in the distribution of power among states on the role of the European Union in the international arena, contextualized within the broader transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order.
Topic:
European Union, International Relations, Strategic Competition, Multipolarity, and Realism
Political Geography:
Europe

155. Françafrique: Franco-African Relations and French Military Engagement in Post-Colonial Africa

Author:
Luqman Saka
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
France has had a long history of association and relationship with Africa, dating back to the 17th century. France’s first permanent and occupied territory was the settlement of Saint-Louis, also known as “Ndar”, in Wolof, the most prominent African language in Senegal. Following the Berlin agre-ement formalizing the partitioning of Africa, France consolidated its claims on territorial possessions at the coast of Senegal and other coastal areas and inland across West Africa and the Sahel. Much as France’s colonial posses-sions in Africa might have expanded after the partition, the Four Communes (Quatre Communes) — comprising Dakar, Goree, Rufisque, and Saint-Louis —, all in present-day Senegal, were special among colonial territories in Afrique Occidentale Française, AOF (French West Africa) (Bawa 2013). Indeed, for years, Saint-Louis was the administrative headquarters of both colonial Senegal and the adjoining colonial territory of Mauritania.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Colonialism, Post-Colonial, and Military Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

156. Azerbaijan-Türkiye Military Relations in the Shadow of the Negotiations with Armenia

Author:
Cavid Veliyev
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on the essence and the impact of the Azerbaijani-Turkish military alliance in the Caucasus. By analyzing the deepening collaboration between the two states, Dr. Cavid Veliyev of Azerbaijan’s Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) highlights the shifting balance of power in the region in favor of the Azerbaijan-Türkiye duo in the face of ongoing tension with Armenia.
Topic:
International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Alliance, Negotiation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

157. WHAT DOES “BIG DATA” TELL? A NETWORK ANALYSIS APPROACH TO THE JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT PARTY’S ROLE PERFORMANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST BETWEEN 2015 AND 2020

Author:
Hikmet Menguaslan and Sadullah Celik
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
In this paper, we exploited big data (The Global Database Events, Language and Tone - GDELT) by utilizing network analysis to elaborate on the Justice and Development Party’s (JDP) Middle East (ME) policy for 2015 and 2020 - our conceptual framework built on the role theory. We identified two dynamics - the positioning of the “Transatlantic” link in Turkish Foreign Policy’s (TFP) orientation and the shape and politics of the JDP elites’ conception of activism - based on which we developed two hypotheses to conceptualize the JDP’s role performance for the period: 1) There was a mismatch between national role conceptions and systemic role prescriptions for Turkey in the period of analysis; 2) This mismatch led the appeal of partnership with non-Western actors to rise. We utilized network analysis by exploiting the GDELT big data set to test our hypotheses empirically. The empirical findings proved the validity of our conceptual arguments.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Science, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

158. The Dragon and the Bear in Africa: Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations

Author:
Robert E. Hamilton
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
This report is based on a chapter of my forthcoming book on the relationship between China and Russia. For the US, this is arguably the most important bilateral relationship in the world today. A robust, resilient partnership between Beijing and Moscow has the potential to remake world order. It would usher in an era of international relations based on power and polarity, eroding the role of international law and institutions, and undermining the sovereignty and agency of smaller states. This world order would represent a serious threat to US interests, as currently defined. On the other hand, transactional, “thin” ties between China and Russia allow the US some breathing space. Instead of a revisionist authoritarian alliance, the US would confront two states that represent different types of challenges. In this case, Washington could deal with the acute, militarized threat of Russia in the near term, while remaining postured to confront the “pacing” threat of China—the only potential peer competitor to the US—over the longer term. The academic and policy worlds have been seized with the China-Russia relationship for almost two decades. Policy debates revolve around how to confront the two, with some arguing that the current focus on reversing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine puts the US at risk of being unprepared for the threat China represents. Others argue that Russia is not merely a disruptive power but represents a profound and immediate danger to US interests. Competition for resources often lurks in the background of this debate: US government organizations focused on Europe tend to argue for focusing on Russia first; those with an Indo-Pacific focus tend to argue that China should be the focus. What this debate often fails to consider is the nature of their relationship and its impact on US policy options. The scholarly debate fills this gap by focusing directly on the nature of the relationship: one camp defines it as a strategic partnership and the other defines it as an “axis of convenience.” Often missing from scholarly analysis, though, is an analysis of the implications for US policy. In other words, scholars often argue forcefully for one of these characterizations of the China-Russia relationship but then fail to advise what the US should do in response. Instead, their analysis focuses on the implications of the relationship for theoretical approaches to international relations. The book that will include this report aims to close this gap between the policy and scholarly debates. It aims to provide a better understanding of the nature of the China-Russia relationship and use that understanding to inform US policy options. It will do this through a novel approach. Instead of focusing on Chinese-Russian interaction at the level of the international system, as most approaches do, it focuses on their interaction “on the ground” in regions where both have important interests at stake. This report examines Chinese-Russian interaction in Africa; other chapters of the book focus on Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and East Asia. Africa and Central Asia provide good testing grounds for the China-Russia relationship because both have important but different interests there. How they advance and defend those interests and how they interact in doing so, can yield important insights into the nature of their overall relationship. These regions are also important because the US footprint is light. The US has been called the “binding agent” in ties between Beijing and Moscow. The idea here is that shared resistance to the US is the only major thing they have in common. In this view, removing the US from the equation will make China and Russia more likely to find reasons to compete rather than cooperate.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

159. Seven Ways to Deepen NATO-Ukraine Relations at the Vilnius Summit

Author:
Luke Coffey
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
NATO will hold a major summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, from July 11 to 12, and Ukraine will undoubtedly be a top agenda item. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently said that the summit should present “a clear plan on when and how Ukraine will enter [NATO].” Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that “there is no alternative to Ukraine's accession to NATO.” With expectations high, NATO leaders and policymakers need to start developing a plan to keep Ukraine on the path to eventual membership while deepening NATO-Ukraine relations. With some creative thinking and political will, the summit could serve NATO’s interests and meet the Ukrainian government’s reasonable and understandable expectations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

160. Renewable relations: A strategic approach to European energy cooperation with the Gulf states

Author:
Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine prompted a frenzy of energy deals between EU member states and countries in the Middle East and North Africa, but their implementation is slow. The EU needs a new approach to energy cooperation with states in the Middle East and North Africa that serves both its energy security imperative and its climate goals. The Gulf monarchies represent a good test case for such an approach, due to their green ambitions, abundant resources, and significance to the fight against climate change. Political and ideological differences are currently the greatest obstacle to long-term, strategic energy cooperation between the regions. But this year’s COP28 in Dubai is an opportunity for both sides to focus on practical ways to accelerate the green transition. Europeans should emphasise four promising areas of energy cooperation with the GCC states: energy efficiency and electrification, renewable energy, and the circular carbon economy.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Decarbonization, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

161. Global History and International Relations: a discussion with Ayşe Zarakol, Glenda Sluga, and Heidi Tworek

Author:
Ayşe Zarakol, Heidi Tworek, and Glenda Sluga
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
IR scholars and Historians are increasingly in dialogue these days, trying to give meaning and substance to how we think about the international order, not least what it is. This conversation between Ayşe Zarakol (AZ), Heidi Tworek (HT), and Glenda Sluga (GS) engages Zarakol’s British Academy ‘Frontiers of Knowledge’ funded grant which aims to bring IR scholars and Historians together to think about disorder:Pathways from Disorder to Order: Where History Meets Theory.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Interview, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

162. Assessing Realist and Liberal Explanations for the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:
Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
Many commentators have claimed that the Russo-Ukrainian War invalidates or refutes core aspects of realist international relations (IR) theory. However, the opposite is the case: many realists correctly predicted the war, and realism offers a compelling explanation for its causes, while explanations based on liberal IR theory are weak and often inconsistent with the evidence. By focusing on factors like the balance of power and the security dilemma, the realist explanation for the Russo-Ukrainian War emphasizes Russian security concerns in the face of NATO expansion and Western-sponsored regime change. Liberal explanations, by focusing on the internal attributes of states and their decision-makers, instead attribute the war to the pathologies of the Russian government. The dominant liberal narratives regarding the causes of the war are that Russian President Vladimir Putin has always been intent on reincorporating Ukraine into Russia and/or that the democratic example set by post-Maidan Ukraine would threaten President Putin’s own autocratic rule at home. Neither of these explanations stand up to scrutiny. For decades, a long list of policymakers, diplomats, and scholars warned against Western encroachment on Russia’s borders and cautioned that a crisis like the current war could erupt due to continued NATO enlargement. These predictions are consistent with realist theory and the explanations for the war offered by realists. Liberal IR theory encourages a crusading, messianic, and highly militarized foreign policy that consistently produces outcomes inimical to U.S. interests. Realist IR theory offers a better framework through which to understand international politics and encourages a more prudent foreign policy that defends fundamental U.S. security interests while avoiding unnecessary conflicts with other powers.
Topic:
International Relations, Realism, Liberalism, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

163. Continuismo, contra reacción y triangulación: el desembarco de China en América Latina y la coexistencia de líneas de acción exterior de España hacia la región

Author:
Javier Martín Merchán
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Las relaciones entre España y América Latina siempre han conformado un pilar en la estrategia de integración internacional del país ibérico. No obstante, ante la singular coyuntura que supone el auge exponencial de China en la región latinoamericana, ¿qué riesgos afronta hoy España en América Latina? ¿Ha influido dicha coyuntura en las líneas maestras de acción exterior de España hacia la región? Este artículo arroja algo de luz en torno a tales preguntas, y su conclusión es doble. Por un lado, sugiere que el desembarco chino supone un serio desafío para España. Por otro, se sostiene que la política exterior española ha hecho coexistir tres tipos de actitudes como respuesta: una más continuista, otra que capitaliza esta nueva coyuntura y busca aprovechar sus oportunidades, y una última más reactiva a las amenazas que suscitaría la pujanza china en América Latina.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and Spain

164. La puerta de Latinoamérica: Las relaciones de Panamá con Estados Unidos y China, oportunidades y desafíos

Author:
Rodrigo Matías Martín and Guillermo Enrique Boscán
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este articulo analiza las relaciones de Panamá con China y Estados Unidos, las dos mayores potencias mundiales en la actualidad. En primer lugar, se revisan las relaciones que el país latinoamericano ha tenido con China desde la creación de Panamá como país, llegando hasta el cambio de reconocimiento diplomático en el año 2017, así como las nuevas relaciones con la República Popular China. Tras ello se analizan los desafíos que tiene Panamá en el contexto de sus nuevas relaciones diplomáticas. En la siguiente sección se revisan de igual manera las relaciones históricas entre Panamá y Estados Unidos, llegando hasta el día de hoy, y se analizan las oportunidades que ofrecen los Estados Unidos a Panamá.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Panama Canal
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, Panama, and United States of America

165. Despliegue del poder blando chino en América Latina y recepción en los países de la región

Author:
Juan Ignacio Brito Munita and Francisco Javier Tagle Montt
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El concepto del poder blando ha cobrado relevancia en Relaciones Internacionales. Asociado típicamente a EE.UU., en los últimos años también China ha promovido su poder blando, llegando a América Latina. Tras revisar las dificultades para acordar una definición del término, esta investigación observa el fenómeno desde una doble perspectiva: por un lado, analiza el despliegue del poder blando chino en la región; por otro, evalúa la respuesta de los países latinoamericanos ante él. Postula que, mientras China usa una definición amplia del poder blando que aplica en la región y la vincula prioritariamente a aspectos de su política doméstica, la recepción de los gobiernos latinoamericanos la hace depender de la variable siguiente: aunque todos acogen la ofensiva económica china y se acercan al gigante asiático, la manera en que reaccionan a ella está condicionada a la postura que mantienen hacia EE.UU.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and Hard Power
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and United States of America

166. UK-EU relations tracker: first edition

Author:
Cleo Davies and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This new UK in a Changing Europe tracker provides an overview of the state of relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union. The first edition, which covers January to March 2023, highlights the thawing in relations between the UK and the EU that has taken place during this period in the context of the agreement of the Windsor Framework in late February 2023. Released quarterly, the UK-EU relations tracker will assess relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. It will also highlight developments in British politics which may affect the UK-EU relationship, and internal dynamics within the EU that might shape its approach to the relationship with the United Kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

167. Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Six and a half years since the Brexit referendum, UK relations with the EU have still not settled into a coherent and consistent pattern. Partly, this is because the process of leaving itself took so long. Partly, too, because there is much still to resolve, not least whether the treaties signed will be fully applied. This report examines the contours of that relationship. It assesses both where we have got to and how the relationship might evolve. The reports sets out the state of play on trade, migration, public opinion, as well as the various party positions on the relationship. It also highlights the deadlines and decisions on the horizon in a number of areas, such as financial services, electric vehicles and fisheries. Finally, it examines the ways in which the TCA could be deepened, and steps that might be taken beyond the TCA – both unilaterally and through increased cooperation with the EU – concluding that changes to the relationship are likely to be slow and incremental.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

168. Characteristics of calculating the power of states in Eastern Europe: a powermetric approach

Author:
Erwin Metera
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The conducted research indicates the elements characteristic of power relations among states in Eastern Europe by describing them in mathematical terms. Using existing assumptions and resulting universal powermetric models, the study adapts them to the specifics of the region, enabling the implementation of the negative role of the imports of Russian energy resources in calculating the power of individual states. The role of trade links based on the two main energy resources – natural gas and crude oil – has been indicated. Imports of these raw materials from Russia, which constitute a significant part of the balance of resources used in the energy sectors of the importing countries, are the source of reduction of the geopolitical position of these states in the region, in relation to the position held by the Russian Federation. By taking into account the negative impact of trade in energy resources due to their use by the Russian Federation as a tool in achieving geostrategic goals, the conclusions obtained in the study allow for an increase in the accuracy of existing powermetric models in research on power distribution in Eastern Europe.
Topic:
International Relations, Geopolitics, Trade, Power, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

169. Framing Conditionality of Foreign Aid: A Critical Approach to International Cooperation Processes

Author:
María Garcia-Vega and Oscar Parra
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The relevance of foreign aid within International Relations is found intrinsically related to the concept of development. However, this one has transformed over the last decades but what remains intact is its conditionality. It is convenient to put foreign aid under an uncanny descriptive scope and content analysis as the development discourses are still changing, but the real underlying motivations of the states continue to be the same. From a realist constructivist approach, this text aims to study critically the forms that foreign aid has taken, especially through two main modalities: North-South Cooperation and South-South Cooperation, though this time framing is employed to study the construction of interests in foreign aid. The text is structured in the following way: framing is located as a constructivist theory in psychology and sociology that gives a logical order to the interpretation of political realities; then, the history of both foreign aid modalities allow to examine the conditions of conditionality; finally, a conclusion is drawn from the framing assessment in relation to the power relations and the construction of global development discourses. This article proposes that both North-South Cooperation and South-South Cooperation still displays the self-interested drive of the modern state.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Global Focus, Global South, and Global North

170. The Governments of Mauricio Macri and Jair Bolsonaro: Ideology, Pragmatism and Foreign Policy

Author:
André Luiz Coelho, Mariano Ignacio Treacy, and Beatriz Bandeira de Mello
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article compares the foreign policy of the governments of Mauricio Macri in Argentina and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, based on the positions of the presidents and their representatives on three issues: 1) relations with the United States, 2) with China and 3) regional integration. We suggest that the Macri government has had to adapt its positions and discursive practices throughout its administration to national and international pressures. We understand that Jair Bolsonaro has adopted a similar stance in his foreign agenda and that his discourses, although strongly ideological, are opposed to more pragmatic actions, especially in the Brazilian economic and trade agendas, as in Argentina. The methodology used in this study is content analysis of speeches and reports from the Brazilian and Argentine foreign ministries, and the theoretical contributions of foreign policy analysis.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, Ideology, Regional Integration, Jair Bolsonaro, and Mauricio Macri
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, South America, and United States of America

171. Global South Versus Geopolitical South: A Debate on the Analytical Relevance of the Concepts

Author:
Hugo Bras Martins da Costa and Rubens de Siqueira Duarte
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The aim of this article is to analyze the limitations and analytical possibilities offered by the concepts of the Global South and the Geopolitical South for a more accurate understanding of the geopolitical dynamics of international relations in the first decades of the 21st century. In methodological terms, the article is based on an analysis of the history of the concept of the Global South, a critical reflection on the main shortcomings of its definition, a presentation of the concept of the Geopolitical South and, finally, a recognition of its main limitations, in order to indicate suggestions for improvement. In its conclusion, the article argues that the concept of the Geopolitical South generates greater analytical yield compared to the Global South due to its valorization of the agency of the countries of the South, the greater precision of its inclusion and exclusion criteria and its denunciation of the asymmetries and inequalities present in the North-South divide in international relations. However, we also argue that the Geopolitical South needs to be improved so that it is capable of simultaneously contemplating the dimension of the unity of the South, as a counterpoint to the North, the dimension of the diversity of the South, as an ontological phenomenon, and the dimension of change in terms of a state's affiliation to the Geopolitical South over time.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Global South

172. Morocco Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the pandemic hit Morocco in March 2020, the country has been facing crises on multiple fronts, including the public health crisis, the economic crisis, inflation, and the historic drought. Internationally, Morocco made several diplomatic gains in the wake of the United States’ recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In an historic reversal of its previous stance, Spain declared that the Moroccan autonomy plan is “the most serious, realistic and credible” solution to the crisis. Multiple other countries opened consulates in Western Sahara.1 2 Moroccans express a great deal of awareness towards these crises, and many recognize the impacts on their daily lives. Nonetheless, not all Moroccans view the current situation in the country through a similar lens. As opposed to the 2018 fifth wave of Arab Barometer surveys where Moroccans were often divided in their views by age, it appears that the effect of these recent events has been to divide Moroccans by socio-economic status to a greater extent. Often, wealthier and more educated Moroccans have a different outlook on the country than those whose income cannot cover their expenses and those with only a high school education or less. The former have a better outlook on Morocco. They express more economic safety and are less likely to be critical of the current situation in their country. The latter are a bit more skeptical, instead expressing more economic frustration and are more willing to criticize many aspects of life in the North African kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

173. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

174. Palestine Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
These are the results of the 7th wave of the Arab Barometer in Palestine. Data collection was conducted during the period of 14 and 23 October 2021 in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip. All interviews were conducted face to face among a representative sample of the adult population, 18 years and above. The poll covers a variety of issues such as economic conditions, democracy and governance, satisfaction with government and other public institutions, emigration, religious practices, gender, education, media, coronavirus, and international and regional matters. Findings show that the economic situation and the coronavirus are the top two concerns of the public. When asked about the most important challenges facing Palestine today, the largest percentage selected “the economic situation, such as poverty, unemployment and inflation,” followed by the spread of the coronavirus, financial and administrative corruption, and internal instability and security. It is worth noting that respondents in most of the Arab countries covered by AB 7 selected the economic situation and the coronavirus crisis as the two most important challenges facing their countries. When asked to evaluate the current economic situation in Palestine, the vast majority said it is bad or very bad. When asked to speculate about how the economic situation will be in the next few years, less than a third said it will be much better or somewhat better.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Health, Democracy, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

175. Mauritania Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Between November 2021 and January 2022, Arab Barometer conducted its first-ever nationally-representative public opinion survey in Mauritania. The survey was part of Arab Barometer’s Seventh Wave which included surveys in 12 countries across the Middle East and North Africa. The two-month fielding period in Mauritania coincided with the spread of the Omicron variable of COVID19, leading to the highest percentages of infections recorded in the country. Therefore, it was no surprise that the absolute majority of Mauritanians expressed concern over the spread of COVID-19. The pandemic, however, ranked second on the list of challenges facing the country, with the economy being the most important challenge for Mauritania. Furthermore, the pandemic is thought to have caused several challenges, chief among which is inflation and other economy-related issues. Mauritanians, however, recognized the government’s efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19 and to provide security and order in the country. Trust in the Mauritanian government was high as compared to other countries. Yet, people were clearly dissatisfied with public services and the government’s performance on the economic front. The harsh economic conditions had taken their toll on the livelihoods of Mauritanians, with large percentages of people suffering from food insecurity recently. These conditions are further exacerbated by the widespread corruption within the state apparatus. Climate change had contributed to making matters worse with the country experiencing its most severe drought in decades. Despite the hardship, Mauritanians were amongst the region’s least likely people to want to emigrate. Only a small minority had expressed a desire to leave the country, with the economy being the main driver behind that desire. When it comes to views on international relations, Mauritanians had shown clear toward Muslim-majority powers, namely Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with both the two states and their leaders being the favorites among regional and international powers. The opposite is true for France and Russia, the leader of which is the least popular leader among his counterparts in Mauritania.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Economy, COVID-19, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa and Mauritania

176. Israel’s policy on Qatar after the October 7 attack

Author:
Moran Zaga, Ariel Admoni, and Maryann Bisharat
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Israel lacks a clear, consistent and established strategy for its relations with Qatar, despite profound Qatari influence in the region. Since the 1990s, Israeli decision-makers have faced the dilemma of balancing between Qatar’s regional and global importance and its close ties with enemies of Israel. Qatar’s dominance has increased since the October 7 attack, as it has become an effective mediator on which Hamas and Israel have no choice but to depend. At the same time, its negative impact has also grown clearer, generated public debate in Israel. The question is: how do we proceed? This policy paper examines the policy options available to Israel on Qatar, both during the war and in the long run. We provide a systemic review of Israel’s constraints and opportunities regarding Qatar’s role in the region, taking into account various approaches to its involvement in Israeli-Palestinian relations and the geopolitical reality. Our basic assumption is that eliminating Qatari influence on the Palestinian issue altogether would be costly, complicated and likely to fail. Given its geopolitical and economic power, coupled with its foreign policy, Qatar will remain an active player on the Palestinian issue regardless of Israel’s preferences. Adopting a confrontational approach could do more harm than good. Israel is better off diverting Qatar’s influence in directions that serve its interests – i.e., weakening Hamas, responding to war challenges and helping restoring Gaza. At the same time, Israel should work to ensure Qatar is not the only regional power holding sway over Gaza and the West Bank. We propose several strategies for managing Israel’s relations with Qatar. One is to maintain constant tension between incentives and pressure points. Qatar’s major weak points are security threats (such as targeted assassinations in its territory or removing security cooperation) and damage to its diplomatic relations with global powers, especially the United States. Israel must therefore involve its international partners in shaping its policy toward Qatar. Another method is appointing a broad state-security framework (preferably the National Security Council) to manage the relationship with Qatar, bringing in external experts to add knowledge and fresh perspectives. Mossad, which currently handles the relationship, cannot formulate policy. Therefore, it should remain the operative arm and manage covert channels. To serve Israel’s immediate interests during the war, we recommend leveraging all of Qatar’s influence on Hamas in Gaza, despite the urge to cut ties over its support of terrorism. Qatar can be crucial to achieving Israel’s two war goals: freeing the captives and toppling the Hamas regime. Israel must continue to use Qatar as a mediator in captive release negotiations, given its unique position. As the war progresses, Hamas’ reliance on Qatar can be used as a lever. Israel should push Qatar to cut practical ties with Hamas, in a gradual manner only while the negotiations are underway, in order to directly weaken Hamas. As motivation, Israel can propose an alternative that retains Qatar’s influence over Palestinian politics, while ensuring conditions that are better for Israel. We believe that without such motivation, Qatar will cling to its hold over Hamas. Israel should also use Qatar’s abilities to assist in other war needs, such as communication, administrative coordination and aid to civilians, using existing Qatari infrastructure in Gaza. At the same time, Israel should draw clear red lines regarding Qatar’s support for terrorism and publicly hold it responsible for strengthening Hamas. This call for accountability may actually help diplomatic efforts vis-à-vis Qatar. In the long run, we submit that a policy of diversifying external influences in the Palestinian sphere will reduce Israel’s binding dependence on Qatar. When the postwar arrangements of governance in Gaza and the West Bank are clearer, Israel should actively work to bring moderate Arab states into the emerging order. Multi-state systems tend to be more moderate, enabling different channels of communication and maneuvering between the various actors. When the reconstruction of Gaza begins, economic projects should only be considered if they are based on broad partnerships. The UAE will play a particularly important role, having demonstrated its economic and diplomatic contribution to the Palestinians, as well as to the normalization with Israel. In the long run, we believe that cutting all ties with Qatar may hurt Israel. Qatar can play a constructive role in shaping the post-war political order in Gaza, as long as its influence is balanced by other regional partners. Our analysis includes input from 11 in-depth interviews with Israeli position-holders currently or previously involved in ties with Qatar, including high-ranking officials in the security establishment and in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, academics and policy researchers. The first section examines the public debate in Israel over Qatar, emphasizing the need to build up a knowledge base to assess Israel’s policy options. The second section outlines Qatar’s global assets, focusing on the Israeli-Palestinian context. This section analyzes Qatar’s regional influence and whether it can be changed. The third section recommends a wartime policy on Qatar covering five issues: releasing captives, toppling Hamas, administrative coordination, Al Jazeera’s influence, and holding Qatar accountable for supporting terrorism. The fourth section lays out three long-term policy options: conditional acceptance, diversification and cutting ties. The options represent different public opinions and offer creative solutions to avoid repeating past failures. For everyone, we detail steps for implementation, potential implications, opportunities and possible difficulties. Finally, we present the necessary strategy, including the incentives and pressure points available to Israel vis- à-vis Qatar.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Hamas, Mediation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Qatar

177. Role Conceptions and Leadership Rivalry in the Middle East: Transforming Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Relations

Author:
Muhammed Yakup İnan
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
In recent years, the Middle East has often been the subject of foreign interventions and the interests of superpowers. The effect of internal dynamics was pushed to the background in regional developments as a result of this situation. It is very important, however, to analyze the Middle East by understanding the power struggles between the regional powers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. This article examines the leadership struggle and role conceptualizations between the regional powers of the Middle East with a focus on the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It argues that Turkey is not a rival to Saudi Arabia's national role conceptions in the Gulf region, but rather a favorable partner when it comes to Gulf security and economic relations. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will follow a positive course with mutual normalization steps and Turkey's export-led growth and regional cooperation strategies.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Economy, Regional Power, and Role Conceptions
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

178. Analysis of Foreign Trade Between Türkiye and Africa

Author:
Şükrü Cicioğlu and Ryan Hafiz Ahmed İbrahim
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
While enhancing our economic relations with African countries was positioned as a target within Türkiye’s vision, especially after the Cold War, this could only come true in the first decade of the 21st century. As a result, there have been significant trade volume developments. Although Türkiye had a trade deficit with Africa from the mid-90s to the early 2000s, it became a surplus party in the subsequent period due to stagnation and the impacts of various crises. The trade with Africa is primarily with North African countries due to geographical proximity and historical ties. While Africa's share in Türkiye's total foreign trade volume has been gradually increasing, it remains significantly lower compared to Asia and Europe. Relations between the continent and Türkiye haven’t grown stronger yet, mainly because most African countries were former colonies. On the other hand, Türkiye's geographical proximity to Africa offers a significant opportunity to meet African countries' agricultural and food needs. In this context, this study aims to analyze Türkiye’s trade with the African continent and to reveal the opportunities, threats, strengths, and weaknesses this trade offers for both actors. Furthermore, the study provides recommendations to enhance these relations in this framework.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, History, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

179. Coalitions of the Week: BRICS, ASEAN, the G20

Author:
Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Supreme leader Xi Jinping’s failure to attend the G20 summit in New Delhi this weekend (September 9-10) — thus nullifying the possibility of a meeting with top Western leaders including American counterpart President Joe Biden — is symptomatic of the isolation that China is facing on the international stage. Instead, Xi is sending Premier Li Qiang, not only to New Delhi but also to a series of meetings between Western and Asian powerhouses, including between the United States, Japan, and the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Jakarta, Indonesia. ASEAN members seem eager to seize the opportunity to promote free trade and high-tech cooperation with the United States and its Western allies, agreeing this week to inject more funds into projects under the U.S.—ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (InvestASEAN.org, September 7; The White House, September 5). By contrast, China’s recent business ties with ASEAN nations has been dominated by a continuous exodus of multinational corporations moving production bases from China and into countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. Xi’s absence has raised eyebrows, particularly due to the fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary has pulled out all the stops when it comes to expanding the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) clout on the global stage, even while ignoring worsening socio-economic conditions at home, such as rising youth unemployment, declining exports and consumer spending, and disappointing new home sales. Deemed a crypto-Maoist by China’s critics, the CCP chief remains convinced that, in the words of both Mao and himself, “the East is rising and the West is declining,” conditions which would allow the PRC to seize the geopolitical high ground given “opportunities that only come once in a century” (Gov.cn, June 23 ; Xinhua, March 23).
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, G20, Geopolitics, ASEAN, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Asia

180. The Demise of Diplomatic Ambiguity: Parsing South Korea’s Estrangement From China

Author:
Matthew Fulco
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In July, the US Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN) visited South Korea for the first time since 1981. Not one, but two of the 560-foot-long warships—which carried a payload of 24 long-range Trident ballistic missiles—surfaced in South Korean waters (Korea JoongAn Daily, July 24, 2023). From Washington and Seoul’s perspective, the SSBN deployment was a pointed reminder to the mercurial North Korean regime to exercise restraint, but the symbolism of the SSBN visit was not lost on China—Pyongyang’s closest ally. For all its military modernization efforts, Beijing has no effective defense against the Ohio-class sub. That South Korea would support the deployment of the SSBNs to its territory illustrates both its concern about rising North Korean brinkmanship and newfound willingness to risk Beijing’s ire. Indeed, after three decades of stable ties anchored in economic interdependence, major changes are afoot in the South Korea-China relationship. Compared to Japan, which also counts China as its largest trading partner, South Korea has historically been less willing to stand its ground in the face of political pressure from Beijing. On the one hand, Seoul and Beijing have no major territorial disputes, but more importantly, South Korea had previously calculated that its political deference—especially on China’s “core interests” like Taiwan—would encourage Beijing to support denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) top foreign policy objective. For many years, South Korea handled Beijing with kid gloves, irrespective of who was in the Blue House. While the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is traditionally more China-friendly, it was the conservative President Park Geun-hye who attended China’s jingoistic September 2015 military parade. After a summit between Xi Jinping and Park, both leaders made a commitment to oppose any unilateral actions that could lead to tension on the Korean Peninsula. The following day, President Park joined Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in China’s military parade. South Korea was the only US ally to attend the event (The Korea Herald, September 3, 2015). Since then, however, the two countries have drifted apart. The catalyst for this change was Seoul’s decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in 2017, which China views as a security threat and South Korea deems essential for self-defense. China has repeatedly demanded that South Korea dismantle its THAAD system (Xinhua, September 21, 2017). When those demands failed to bear fruit, it resorted to sanctions against South Korea (The Korea Herald, March 8, 2017). Furthermore, both China’s imposition of a draconian national security law in Hong Kong and its mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic have hurt its reputation in South Korea (The South China Morning Post, October 20, 2020). It is against this backdrop that the ROK’s anti-China sentiment has surged to an all-time high—a development that will inevitably spill over into Seoul’s foreign policy. According to a 2021 survey conducted by SisaIN, for the first time since the ROK and the PRC normalized relations in 1992, South Koreans view China even more negatively than they do Japan (SisaIN, November 29, 2021). China’s ruling Communist Party seems oblivious to the existential threat that South Korea feels in the face of surging missile tests by North Korea. The JoongAng Daily noted in June that it takes just two minutes for a North Korean missile to hit Seoul. According to the editorial, “South Korea is technically still at war with North Korea. The government and people must not forget that” (Yonhap News Agency, June 1, 2023). Concluding that political appeasement and economic engagement with China have failed to pay off, South Korea is taking two significant steps: strengthening its ties with its top security partner, the US, and mending fences with its former rival, Japan. The implications of Seoul’s estrangement from Beijing could have far-reaching implications for geopolitics in the broader Indo Pacific region.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

181. Party Ties: Vietnam, Cuba and China’s Relations with Other Marxist-Leninist States

Author:
John S. Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Last month, on the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Vietnam comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership (中越全面战略合作伙伴关系), Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping met with Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) Politburo Member and Head of the Central Committee Organization Commission Truong Thi Mai and asked her to convey his greetings to General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs [FMPRC], April 26). [1] The visit to Beijing by Mai, who has headed the VCP’s powerful organization commission since 2021 and was appointed to the Secretariat in March, occurred days after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Vietnam (NhanDan, April 15; VN Express, March 6). As the maritime dispute between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea has intensified over the past fifteen years, Washington has deepened its ties with Hanoi based on overlapping geostrategic interests. Nevertheless, the Biden administration’s ability to achieve its goal of upgrading the U.S. relationship with Vietnam to a “strategic partnership” this year to mark the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the U.S.-Vietnam “comprehensive partnership” remains in question (Fulcrum.sg, April 20). Vietnam undoubtedly perceives the PRC’s drive to consolidate control over the South China Sea as its main geopolitical challenge. Moreover, Vietnam’s relationship with its larger northern neighbor is colored by mistrust derived from historical memories of Chinese occupation and a long legacy of conflict, including the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War and the subsequent series of border and naval clashes in the 1980s. However, the VCP, particularly the conservative faction, now views the U.S. as posing its primary ideological threat and is fearful that Washington aims to undermine its grip on power (Nikkei Asia, May 11, 2022). As two scholars at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences note in a recent analysis, Hanoi’s reluctance to upgrade ties with the U.S. stems not only from fear of angering China but also from concern with “Washington’s excessive focus on press freedom, religious freedom, and human rights as an internal intrusion and potential threat to Vietnam’s political security.” [2] Hence, Beijing is able to arrest Hanoi from drifting towards closer alignment with Washington by leveraging their shared Communist systems and mutual concerns about Western efforts to facilitate the “peaceful evolution” of communist states into liberal democracies. During his meeting with VCP General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong in Beijing last October, Xi spoke to both Party leaderships’ mutual concern with regime security. He stressed that each side “should stay committed to the socialist orientation” and called for increased party-party exchanges to facilitate “mutual learning in party governance and state administration, maintain high-level communication and strategic dialogue between the two militaries, achieve more outcomes in cooperation on law enforcement and security, and safeguard the political security and social stability of respective countries” (FMPRC, October 31). Party-to-party ties are a key element of the PRC’s relationships with the other three states with ruling Communist Parties: Vietnam, Cuba and Laos. [3] As with the CCP, the Vietnamese, Cuban and Laotian Communist Parties have each adapted and modified Marxist-Leninism to suit their national conditions, regional situations and elite political preferences. Despite their considerable differences, these states’ mutual Marxist-Leninist ideological orientations and systems foster shared interests, including maintaining regime security and “stability,” opposing perceived external attempts to define and impose Western conceptions of democracy and human rights, advancing a state-led model of economic development and promoting a more multipolar world.
Topic:
International Relations, Socialism/Marxism, Partnerships, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Vietnam, and Cuba

182. Beyond Arms and Ammunition: China, Russia and the Iran Back Channel

Author:
Sine Ozkarasahin
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Along with Iran’s increasing involvement in supplying Russia’s war effort against Ukraine, a potential increase in Chinese support for Russia presents a challenge for both Kyiv and NATO (Eurasia Daily Monitor, March 6). Indeed, Western governments have recently expressed alarm over China’s potential provision of dual-use or military equipment to Russia (U.S. Department of Defense, February 28). According to U.S. intelligence, Chinese arms transfers to Russia would probably take the form of artillery and drones (Straits Times, February 26). As both items are badly needed by Russia to sustain its war efforts, the entry of Chinese arms on the Ukrainian battlefield may drastically shift the balance of power in the ongoing conflict. However, in addition to trackable military aid packages, Chinese assistance is manifesting itself more subtly in ways that are often overlooked. Consequently, a forthcoming Chinese aid package to Russia is likely to take several forms.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Arms Trade, and Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Eurasia, Middle East, and Asia

183. Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East: Implications for Pakistan

Author:
Zosha Noor, Muhammad Javed, and Shakeel Ahmed
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
China's resurgence as a global actor has significantly altered international relations, particularly in the Middle East, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan's unique geographical location and complex international interactions present an intriguing situation due to these changes. Pakistan's close relations with China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, along with its shared border and cultural ties with Iran, influence its security concerns, domestic politics, economy imperative, and foreign policy. China's growing relationship with Saudi Arabia is driven by its oil needs, global influence, and regional stability. Iran offers China a valuable counterbalance and potential ally in the Middle East due to its geostrategic position and abundant natural resources. The United States' long-standing hegemony in the Middle East has been put to the challenge by China's growing influence and strategic alliances in the region. This qualitative study investigates the issues relating to Middle East with an objective to evaluate the role of great powers‘ politics in the region. The Middle East's shifting geopolitical environment could be advantageous for projects like the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Chabahar Port Development, and Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.
Topic:
International Relations, Political stability, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

184. Quo Vadis, Turkish IR? Mapping Turkish IR’s Footsteps within the Global

Author:
İrem Karamık and Erman Ermihan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The International Relations (IR) discipline is ascendant because of the theoretical and methodological divisions and controversies within. As it is mostly placed in the Non-Western IR category, Turkish IR is an interesting case in that it reveals the temporal changes of theoretical debates in IR and their local resonance from the purview of a geography that is jammed between the West and the rest. For this reason, this paper examines the literature on the Turkish School of IR (if there is any) and draws some conclusions regarding its current state. This research first utilizes the Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) surveys conducted by the International Relations Council of Turkey (IRCT) between 2007 and 2018. More extensively, the top 20 journals categorized under Google Scholar’s “Diplomacy and International Relations” list are coded based on their titles containing “Turkey.” Articles from the 1922–2021 period are then analyzed considering their authors, abstracts, and keywords. From this analysis, the study finds that studies focusing on Turkey have improved over the years, although there is a need for more theoretical and methodological advancements. As a “peripheral” country in IR, Turkey is still a subject of study by the “center” countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

185. From Prescription to Treatment: The Disciplinary (under)Achievement of IR in Turkey

Author:
Ismail Erkam Sula, Buğra Sarı, and Çağla Lüleci-Sula
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
International Relations (IR) in Turkey has been assessed by scholars on topics, including but not limited to the need to increase contributions from Turkish IR scholars to theoretical discussions, the need for homegrown theorizing, and to improve the methodological quality of IR research originating in Turkey. This literature has revolved around the diagnosis of and prescriptions for what is referred to as the ‘disciplinary underachievement’ of IR in Turkey. Recently, an increasing number of scholars have focused on disciplinary self-reflection discussing the limitations and prospects in the state of the IR discipline in Turkey. Adding to this emergent literature, this paper identifies the reasons for the ‘disciplinary underachievement’ in Turkish IR. The paper discusses the conditions that hamper IR education in Turkey under three groups: 1) the structure and content of undergraduate and graduate curricula, 2) the state of IR as an academic discipline in Turkey, and 3) the state of IR literature in Turkish. The paper also offers suggestions for a prospective treatment to improve the state of the IR discipline and pedagogy in Turkey. It argues that an improvement in the quality of IR education has significant potential to contribute to further inclusion of locally produced IR knowledge into ‘global IR,’ which is widely cited in the existing literature as a significant sign of ‘disciplinary progress.
Topic:
International Relations, Pedagogy, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

186. De-colonising the Azerbaijan-Armenian Conflict: Breaking the Knot of Security and Dependence

Author:
Leila Alieva
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The recent military operation in the Nagorno Karabakh area reflects a broader regional transformation. Its essence is in the second attempt (with the first one in Azerbaijan 30 years ago) of changing the security paradigm, this time in Armenia, leading to de-colonisation of relations in the region. The core of this change is liberation from the dependence on Russia’s almost two centuries old patronage, with Nagorno Karabakh conflict evolving as a tool of this dependence. With all the contradictions over the territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and difference in current political systems, the countries seem at last to arrive to the same conclusion of Russia and her control of the Karabakh elite being one of the obstacles to the peaceful relations, reforms and integration in the West. The power balance in the region, affected by such factors as Turkey’s greater involvement, distraction of the West, Russia’s increasing isolation, besides power change in Armenia, has also contributed to the “window of opportunity” for a change of paradigms. The role and influence of the EU and the US in this process, including in deterring potential military developments, will be dependent on the perception of them by the parties as non-partisan brokers, promotion of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan as independent subjects of international relations and consistency in support of democracy.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Mediation, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

187. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf

Author:
Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

188. Italy’s Pivot to the Indo-Pacific – Towards a Value-driven Foreign Policy?

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy is stepping up its involvement in the Indo-Pacific, both in the economic and security realms. The cabinet led by Giorgia Meloni – a centre-right coalition often portrayed by commentators as right-wing and nationalist – is rebalancing Rome’s policy in the Far East by scaling down ties with Beijing and by effectively lending support to the United States and its Asian allies vis-à-vis an increasingly assertive and self-confident China. Moving away from previous centre-left governments that tended to prioritise commercial relations with Beijing, the conservative coalition in power since September 2022 has been fostering defence-related cooperation with Japan and India and chip-related cooperation and investments with Taiwan. Moreover – and remarkably for a country that has long been absent from Asian security – the Italian government has sent a patrol vessel to the South China Sea and plans to forward the country’s flagship aircraft carrier to the area to conduct joint exercises with the navies of Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The quantity and quality of initiatives being undertaken warrant the label of an Italian ‘pivot’ to the Indo-Pacific. By upgrading its presence in the region, Italy joins the other G7 nations in their efforts to uphold the rules-based order and dissuade Beijing from invading Taiwan. However, to consolidate the western anchorage of this pivot, the Meloni government needs to fully align its policy towards Beijing with that of the Euro-Atlantic allies – which includes deciding whether to continue to lend Italy’s official support to China’s Belt and Road Initiative or not.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Italy, and Indo-Pacific

189. Fostering a New Global Conversation: A View from Mexico on Diversifying Inter-Regional Engagement

Author:
Guadalupe González Chávez
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
This essay highlights the importance of fostering a more inclusive global conversation by encouraging both intra- and inter-regional relations. Although one focus will be on fostering more communication between Mexico and the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region with Azerbaijan and the other countries that make up the core Silk Road region, various other regions and mechanisms operating within the contemporary global context will also be discussed. The dimensions of future governance may be examined from the perspective of different world regions’ capacity to communicate, collaborate, and generate a new conversation. A more inclusive approach can result in a more holistic review of different angles and thus bring out more original approaches for prospective geopolitical analysis efforts, policy design, and decisionmaking in their local, regional, and global expressions. Communication, knowledge, and culture strengthen their capacity to influence the conversation if key elements of the global governance agenda are taken as a common ground for analysis when de cisionmak ing depends on the incorporation of broader views. While distant, the location and geographical presence of LAC and the Silk Road regions allow for the possibility to analyze commonalities between these two large and complex communities whilst exploring new pathways for dialogue and international policymaking.
Topic:
International Relations, Communications, Governance, Geopolitics, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan, Latin America, Mexico, and South Caucasus

190. Latin America and the ‘New Caucasus’: Linking Points Between Brazil and Azerbaijan

Author:
Roberto Rodolfo Georg Uebel
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
For those arriving in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, after crossing the Atlantic Ocean and flying over war-torn Europe, in addition to the modern buildings along the Caspian Sea coast and the unique hospitality of its people, what stands out the most is the emerging ‘New Caucasus’ on the horizon. It is a region no longer constrained by the geopolitical, geoeconomic, and cultural ties to the old Eastern Europe and no longer overshadowed by historical hegemons like Russia (most recently) and Iran (previously). When I visited in 2022, I discovered a country, and a region, that masterfully coordinates a pragmatic foreign policy without relinquishing its Caucasian and Caspian values and roots, creating a unique political identity that, to some extent, resembles our Latin American political identity, of course bearing in mind the appropriate hemispheric and historical proportions. My observation is that Azerbaijan is emerging as a strategic actor in the Caspian Sea region as well as in the relations between Central Asia, the Caucasus, the European Union, and the Middle East.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Brazil, Azerbaijan, Latin America, and South Caucasus

191. Why will Indonesia become more important and what does that mean for Japan and the US?

Author:
Masafumi Ishii and Gerald Curtis
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Over the next 10-20 years Indonesia will become an increasingly important player on the international stage. Masafumi ISHII, former Ambassador of Japan to Indonesia, will clarify the reasons for Indonesia's growing importance and discuss what Japan and the US need to do to engage more closely with Indonesia and to align responses to regional contingencies such as the Taiwan straits.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Emerging Powers, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

192. The Evolution of the Partnership between NATO and Japan

Author:
Komei Isozaki
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In signing the ITTP, Japan has made it clear that it will organize, develop, and strengthen its existing relationship with NATO. This step further promotes the practical cooperation that Japan has advanced over the last decade.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, International Cooperation, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

193. EU-China relations in an uncertain world: Walking a geopolitical tightrope

Author:
Sinikukka Saari, Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, and Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
After the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s approach towards China shifted from overconfidence in European normative power to an embrace of unconditional economic engagement with China. The EU policy of de-risking is critically important, but it needs to be carefully considered, managed, and communicated to China. US-China tensions and American debates on China impact the EU’s approach. Nevertheless, there are significant differences between European and US positions on China irrespective of which party holds power in the US. China’s position on Russia’s war of aggression is a make-or-break issue for the EU. By actively enabling Russia’s invasion, China is harming its own long-term interests in Europe and globally. It is in Europe’s interests to avoid framing current international dynamics in terms of “the West and the rest”. Although this discourse may be popular domestically, there is a danger of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

194. Greece and Tripartite Partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Recommended Policy for Greek Strategic Interests

Author:
Dimitrios Grekos
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The Eastern Mediterranean is an area of strategic importance not only in the peripheral but worldwide. In recent years, the field of the Eastern Mediterranean has entered a new dynamic since there are trends of Tripartite Partnerships between neighboring states. These partnerships are political, cultural, economic, energy (due to the hydrocarbon surveys), immigration, and especially at the level of dealing with common security threats. By conducting tripartite partnerships, Greece achieved balance while playing a major role in the region. The study examined this Greek initiative in the sectors above under the vacuum left by the great powers (Russia and the USA). Greek foreign policy, through Tripartite Partnerships, defended its strategic interests and shaped the region’s good relationships. The analysis of this policy employed the theory of neoclassical realism in order to present the international and internal (state) system and their impact on the Greek initiative of tripartite cooperation with the states of the Eastern Mediterranean. According to said method, a recommended policy for Greek strategic interests was designed, which may be utilized by other regional states.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Law, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Greece and Eastern Mediterranean

195. Charting a Green and Competitive Future for Europe

Author:
Lila Djait
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from EU institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The inaugural session, focused on ‘Charting a Green and Competitive Future for Europe’, addressed a pressing issue of our times. In 2023, the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report propelled climate change to the pinnacle, categorizing it as the greatest risk, and underscored its entangled nature with diverse social, economic, and political dynamics. Recognizing its critical importance, the Commission has placed this theme at the heart of several Strategic Foresight Reports. These reports, among numerous other efforts, reflect the EU’s commitment to navigating the delicate balance between ecological sustainability and citizens’ wellbeing, with economic growth in the twin transition. This theme’s relevance stems from its central role in shaping the future transformation of our society and economy, highlighting the EU’s proactive approach in addressing these interconnected challenges.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, European Union, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

196. Interview with Ambassador Edward Djerejian

Author:
Christian Allard and Nick Vargish
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Ambassador Edward Djerejian has served as an important thought leader for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Both as Ambassador to Syria and Israel and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs in the 1990s, Ambassador Djerejian was a vital participant in the Arab-Israeli peace process and was also deeply involved with the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. He also presented a coherent vision of how the U.S. should balance the goals of democracy in the Middle East by proclaiming in his Meridian House speech in 1992 that America would not be for “one vote, one person, one time.” This winter, as a Senior Fellow at HKS Belfer Center’s MEI, Ambassador Djerejian sat down with JMEPP editors Nick Vargish and Christian Allard to discuss pressing issues in the Arab World and the prospects for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Interview
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

197. The Trilateral Security Dialogue, Defence Cooperation, & Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Aiden Warren, Charles T. Hunt, and Matthew Warren
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This report investigates the prospects and difficulties of enhancing AI cooperation among Australia, Japan, and the United States under the Trilateral Security Dialogue (TSD) framework. Significant overlap in national AI objectives and vision, along with shared understandings of global AI competition and the security implications of AI development, exist among the TSD members. Insights from consultations and workshops with various stakeholders in Washington D.C. reveal a strong appetite for further cross-border collaboration in AI. However, several challenges persist across common standards, interoperability, trust, awareness, export control regimes, and data governance. The report, the first in a series, outlines key areas for building a robust and resilient AI partnership that can address the security challenges and opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:
International Relations, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

198. BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
We proudly present you the ‘BSC Trends: Reconstructing the Global (Dis)Order,’ the companion publication to the Belgrade Security Conference 2023, held in Belgrade from October 11th to 13th, 2023. This publication aims to shed light on and discuss, following the style of BSC discussions, the most significant global, regional, and local events, phenomena, and developments that have marked this year. These topics were part of the panel discussions in this year’s BSC conference program. The authors of the texts in this publication have taken an additional step by attempting, thoroughly and analytically, to foresee events in the near future within each of the covered subjects. The significance of this publication lies in its capacity to indicate, over an extended period, the primary directions in the development of foreign and security policies, international relations, the European Union, the third power influence, the existence of the global order, and the phenomenon of globalization. It explores how these aspects impact geopolitics, the Balkans, international relations, EU enlargement, the rise of right-wing politics in Europe, the Ukraine conflict, and the Middle East. Starting this year, after each edition of the Belgrade Security Conference, this publication will be released to capture the essence of the discussed themes that defined the conference. Furthermore, it will expand these themes through analyses by the finest researchers of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, along with our external partners, friends of the institution, and other invited authors.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Globalization, European Union, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe

199. Border proximity and attitudes toward free movement in Africa

Author:
Beth Elise Whitaker
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does proximity to an international border influence attitudes toward the free movement of people in Africa? Often conceptualised as barriers, borders also represent opportunities for people to get higher prices for goods, pursue better services, or seek refuge from persecution. Border area residents are better able to take advantage of such opportunities but are also more likely to be affected by security threats and other risks. Analysing georeferenced Afrobarometer survey data from 44,807 respondents in 32 countries, I find that respondents who live in closer proximity to an international land border are more likely to support free movement than those living farther away. These findings hold even when accounting for interacting with people from neighbouring countries, having co-ethnics across the border, and living near a refugee camp, suggesting that the opportunities associated with border proximity tend to outweigh any risks. As African governments move toward visa-free movement throughout the continent, public support for such policies may vary significantly depending upon geographic location.
Topic:
International Relations, Refugees, Borders, Freedom of Movement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa

200. France Walks Fine Line to Improve Relations with Both Algeria and Morocco

Author:
Amanda Dziubińska and Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The military upheavals between 2020 and 2023 that resulted in a reduction of France’s military presence in the Sahel highlighted the importance of relations with Morocco and Algeria to realise French interests in the region. Rebuilding this influence is hampered by the rivalry between the two countries over the status of Western Sahara. Necessary for improving relations will be the political will of Morocco and Algeria to cooperate with France in the area of migration and, on the part of France, greater involvement in the development of the two countries’ energy sector.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Migration, Territorial Disputes, Strategic Interests, and Energy
Political Geography:
France, Nigeria, Morocco, Sahel, and Western Sahara