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1. Who are the populists and how to respond to them: Evidence from mainstream European Parliament parties

Author:
Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The main research questions of this paper are how mainstream European Parliament parties conceptualize populism, and how they respond to the rise of populism. The paper, which has come out of the Horizon 2020 project “Demos”, is based on semi-structured interviews with top officials of non-populist parties in the European Parliament (“Europarties”), such as the ALDE, EPP, the Party of European Socialists and the European Greens. The research technique of the paper is thematic analysis, performed on the responses obtained from the aforementioned interviews. Europarty officials identified populist parties by associating them with core themes such as anti-migration, Euroscepticism, and the tendency to make undeliverable policy promises. As for the effectiveness of anti-populist strategies, the interviewees converged on the idea that the problems posed by populists cannot be ignored and that clear and concrete policy solutions are what mainstream parties need, if they are to defend themselves against the evasive political discourse of populist parties. Non-populist parties in the European Parliament may use three strategies to prevent the rise of populists, namely clashing with, marginalizing, or co-opting the populists. Non-populist parties may prefer to incorporate selected questions raised by the populists into their political agendas, and provide non-populist replies to them. Mainstream parties seem aware that while populists may not win arguments over concrete policy measures, they might win voters’ hearts.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Populism, Domestic Politics, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Duterte’s pandemic populism: Strongman leadership, weak state capacity, and the politics of deployment in the Philippines

Author:
Julio C. Teehankee
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic undermined the populist legacy of Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte. Despite implementing one of the longest and strictest lockdowns globally, the country has struggled with controlling the pandemic. While Duterte looks to have triumphed in his attack on human rights and press freedom, his government’s record in combating the virus has been spotty at best. Yet Duterte’s populism has proven to be resilient. He has remained extremely popular, with a September 2021 national survey reporting 81 per cent approval of his government’s response to the pandemic and 91 per cent of respondents expressing trust in his leadership. The irony of Duterte’s populist resilience amid his poor pandemic response serves to highlight his mastery of political deployment within a weak state. Two significant inputs are required to deploy state capacity into a range of outcomes: political coalitions (including leadership, classes, and parties) and a balance of social forces. The ‘politics of deployment’ depends on the quality of decision-making of state leadership and the political coalitions forged to support such decision-making. Decisions, in turn, depend on the balance of social forces—the resistance or support of various sectors in society. This paper will unpack Duterte’s deployment of ‘brute force governance’ (which he earlier employed in his bloody ‘war on drugs’) in addressing the COVID19 crisis in the Philippines.
Topic:
Populism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

3. The Crisis of Civilization Paradigm: Co-Radicalization of Islamist and Populist Groups in Europe

Author:
Ayhan Kaya
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Europe is facing several problems, some of which revolve around the issues of migration and integration of third-country nationals. Civilizational and culturalist paradigms seem to have poisoned how many European citizens have perceived Muslim-origin people. In this short intervention, Islamophobism, populism, nativism, Islamism, radicalization, extremism, violence, and terrorism are among the issues to be discussed, deliberated, and communicated. This intervention attempts to elaborate the destructive nature of the civilizational paradigm in Europe, leading to the co-radicalization of Islamist and right-wing populist groups.
Topic:
Radicalization, Populism, Discrimination, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Europe

4. The Pandemic Exposes and Exacerbates Existing Problems of Inequality and Polarization

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, while some democracies (such as Canada and Australia) have been able to respond effectively, the five large democracies of the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have suffered severe effects on public health. In this commentary, Joshua Kurlantzick, a Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how social and economic inequalities in these countries are the cause of their ineffective responses to the pandemic. He then points out how populist politicians in these countries have exacerbated inequality during the pandemic with their rhetoric and policy. The author then argues that despite political, economic, and social problems in these countries, leaders have an opportunity to alleviate inequality through major democratizing reforms, as there is a public sentiment of wanting to work together to overcome the pandemic.
Topic:
Democracy, Inequality, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Indonesia, India, Brazil, Philippines, and United Nations

5. Sri Lanka’s Arab Spring Moment: Can Asia’s Oldest Democracy Weather the Crisis?

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Sri Lanka, Asia`s oldest democracy, faces political and economic crisis, and protests continue on the streets day after day. Niranjan Sashoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, discusses the deeper structural factors and historical background behind the political and economic crisis in this issue briefing. Dr. Sahoo states that it`s hard to predict where Sri Lanka`s future democracy will go, but the long-running rule of the Rajapaksa family is likely to end as protests continue to demand the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He argues that the resignation of the pro-China Rajapaksa family is an opportunity for Sri Lanka to move away from China`s influence and deepen ties with major democracies in Asia and the West.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

6. Authoritarian Populism as a Response to Crisis: The Case of Brazil

Author:
Esra Akgemci
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article demonstrates that the authoritarian populist strategy is most appealing when leaders create a sense of crisis and present themselves as having the only solution. The article underlines three performative methods of how Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil offered simple answers for a crisis and portrayed other political actors as the responsible ones to be removed. Firstly, nativism presents a conservative view on how politics should be structured by perceiving all “non-natives” as threatening. Secondly, messianism, the fetishism of Bolsonaro as a “messiah” who leads the way in the battle between “good” and “evil,” serves to reinforce the support of the Evangelist base against “PT members.” Finally, conspiracism provides an easy way to eradicate ambiguities and helps to fuel an antagonism against the “enemy.”
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Populism, Nativism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

7. The ghost people and populism from above: The Kais Saied case

Author:
Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since Kais Saied dismissed Hichem Mechichi’s government in July 2021, several political concepts emerged to interpret what happened in Tunisia, either to legitimize or denounce Saied’s measures. This article examines Saied’s brand of populism and looks at how his failure to mobilize the people he claims to represent is slowly sinking Tunisia into authoritarianism.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Populism, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

8. How Populism Dies: Political Weaknesses of Personalistic Plebiscitarian Leadership

Author:
Kurt Weyland
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Kurt Weyland examines the weaknesses of populist leadership. He argues that populist leaders are prone to errors and misdeeds, have difficulty dealing with other political forces, and face institutional and external constraints. Consequently, he concludes, they damage and suffocate democracy not as easily and frequently as recent observers have feared.
Topic:
Democracy, Leadership, Populism, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. To the Viktor Go the Spoils: What Orbán Needs to Form a New Political Camp in Europe

Author:
Milan Nič and Julian Rappold
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The next months will show whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can retain his influence in Europe even outside its largest political family. Having left the center-right European People’s Party before his party was finally pushed out, Orbán is now trying to regroup and unite the populist and Euroskeptic forces in European Parliament. What looks like a defeat could still be turned to his advantage if it leads to a lasting reshuffle of political alliances and strengthens illiberal voices.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Populism, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

10. Populism and COVID19: How Populist Governments (Mis)Handle the Pandemic

Author:
Michael Bayerlein, Vanessa A. Boese, Scott Gates, Katrin Kamin, and S. Mansoob Murshed
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Populist parties and actors now govern various countries around the world. Often elected by the public in times of crises and over the perceived failure of ‘the elites’, the question stands as to how populist governments actually perform once elected, especially in times of crisis. Using the pandemic shock in the form of the COVID-19 crises, our paper answers the question of how populist governments handle the pandemic. We answer this question by introducing a theoretical framework according to which populist governments (1) enact less far-reaching policy measures to counter the pandemic and (2) lower the effort of citizens to counter the pandemic, so that populist governed countries are (3) hit worse by the pandemic. We test these propositions in a sample of 42 countries with weekly data from 2020. Employing econometric models, we find empirical support for our propositions and ultimately conclude that excess mortality in populist governed countries exceeds the excess mortality of conventional countries by 10 percentage points (i.e., 100%). Our findings have important implications for the assessment of populist government performance in general, as well as counter-pandemic measures in particular, by providing evidence that opportunistic and inadequate policy responses, spreading misinformation and downplaying the pandemic are strongly related to increases in COVID-19 mortality.
Topic:
Governance, Populism, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Local David Versus Global Goliath: Populist Parties and the Decline of Progressive Politics in Italy

Author:
Matteo Cavallaro
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of local spending, particularly on social welfare, and local inequality as factors in the Italian political crisis following the adoption in 2011 of more radical national austerity measures. We employ two different methods. First, we develop an original database of municipal budgets. There we show that even the lowest level of social welfare spending, that offered by Italian municipalities, though also hit by austerity, was still able to moderate this national shock. We test three operationalizations of local spending: aggregate current expenditures, aggregate current expenditures on social services, and current expenditures disaggregated by function. We show that municipal current expenditures, particularly on social spending, significantly affected the post-2011 share of votes for the progressive coalition. The results also show that social spending, especially on education, significantly moderated the combined effect of national austerity and the economic crisis on voting for populist radical right parties, while no significant results appeared for populist parties in general. Local inequality appears to significantly enhance vote shares of populist radical right parties and populist parties in general. We caution that, although significant, the effect is not strong: that local policy and economic conditions can moderate national shocks but cannot reverse them. The second analysis relies on survey data to ascertain the individual-level mechanisms behind the role of local welfare. The paper argues that local economic inputs influence voters’ position on non-economic issues. Our results, however, do not identify any significant individual-level channel of transmission, be it cultural or economic.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Inequality, Populism, and Austerity
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

12. The U.S. and Hungary: Friends in Need of a Better Way

Author:
Jon Greenwald
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
When the Wall fell in 1989, I was the U.S. Embassy political counselor in East Berlin. We immediately realized something new would replace the Cold War, but one of my few certainties was that if Moscow released its grip on the Warsaw Pact, Hungary – Eastern Europe’s freest and most economically diverse society — would be quickest to integrate smoothly into Western Europe. President George H.W. Bush’s goal of a “Europe whole and free” has come closer, but we are not there yet, and Hungary, where I held a similar position earlier, has lagged. Respected observers Freedom House and Transparency International chart a course that puts it dangerously close to, even within, the autocratic zone. Worse, it champions a nationalist populism and “illiberal democracy” directly challenging key principles to which the European Union (EU) of which it is a member and the U.S., its ally in NATO, subscribe. What should be done?
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, and Populism
Political Geography:
Europe, Hungary, North America, and United States of America

13. The Importance of International Partnerships for Israel’s Progressive Camp

Author:
Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The progressive camp in Israel has been trying for years to find its way back to the corridors of power and influence, so far unsuccessfully. Those seeking strategies and tactics for change often wonder whether the solution to Israel’s problems will emerge from without, for example driven by international pressure, or from within, by convincing and mobilizing the Israeli public. A third option to this dichotomy has emerged in recent years in the shape of combined and coordinated moves both within Israeli society and in cooperation with allies abroad.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Nationalism, Politics, Partnerships, Populism, and Progressivism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

14. How concerning is Bolsonaro’s recent political and military shakeup?

Author:
Ryan C. Berg
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
urbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet. Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”
Topic:
Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Populism, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

15. Mexico 2018-2021: Pandemic, Crisis, Security and Geopolitics/México 2018-2021: Pandemia, Crisis, Seguridad y Geopolítica

Author:
Raúl Benítez Manaut
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The article starts from the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic re-evaluates the concept of multidimensional security, which emerged from the 2003 meeting of the Organization of American States. It is argued that, at the level of hemispheric geopolitics, it is in the three most populous countries, under the nationalist and populist leaderships of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, where the pandemic has wreaked the most havoc. The similarities in the initial handling of the pandemic, its minus-valuation, the so-called Fourth Transformation policy and its characteristics, deployed by President López Obrador in Mexico and its effect on the militarization of the country are analyzed as well as the impact of the pandemic on the population and the great economic crisis induced. It is concluded that Mexico is experiencing a "militarization with popular support", and that the pandemic has favored the public image of the military. / El artículo se desarrolla sobre la hipótesis de que la pandemia COVID-19 revalora el concepto de seguridad multidimensional, desprendido de la reunión de la Organización de Estados Americanos de 2003. Se afirma que, a nivel de la geopolítica del hemisferio, es en los tres países más poblados, los liderazgos nacionalistas y populistas de Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro y Andrés Manuel López Obrador, donde la pandemia ha causado más estragos. Se analizan las similitudes en el manejo inicial de la pandemia, su minusvaloración, la llamada política de la Cuarta Transformación y sus características, desplegada por el presidente López Obrador en México y el efecto que tiene en la militarización del país; el impacto de la pandemia en la población y la gran crisis económica inducida. Se concluye que México vive una “militarización con respaldo popular”, y que la pandemia ha sido un elemento que ha favorecido a los militares en su imagen pública.
Topic:
Security, Populism, COVID-19, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and United States of America

16. Exporting the War on Terror: Islamophobia in Asia

Author:
Khaled A. Beydoun and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Join us for a fireside chat between Professor Khaled Beydoun and Professor Sahar Aziz on the latest legal and political developments in the troubling rise of Global Islamophobia in India, China, and other Asian countries.
Topic:
Human Rights, Populism, Islamophobia, and War on Terror
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

17. Lebanese Trade Unions and Independent Professional Associations: A Review in Light of the Popular Movement

Author:
Jamil Mouawad
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
On 17 October 2019, Lebanon saw the rise of a popular movement denouncing the widespread corruption of the country’s ruling class. Dubbed the 17 October Uprising, the unprecedented movement swept through various major Lebanese cities, including Beirut, Saïda, Tyre, Tripoli, and many others. In parallel, academics and activists debated the importance of having various organizational frameworks (partisan, union-based, or professional) that could take charge of organizing popular protests. These organizations would help frame demands in political agendas that play a crucial role in achieving the desired democratic transition.[i] This discussion – or at least parts of it – resulted from the almost total absence of any effective official union role in the popular movement, as opposed to other uprisings in the Arab region, where independent professional associations or trade unions played a pivotal role in the action. They demanded change, organized protests, and even took part in negotiations – such as in Sudan’s case).[ii] In fact, a quantitative study carried out during the 17 October Uprising showed that 95% of protestors were unaffiliated with trade unions. It also revealed that only 5% of demonstrators were affiliated with free-profession unions, such as non-labour professional associations or unions that include physicians, lawyers, nurses, engineers or the Teacher Union for example.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Populism, Unions, and Trade Unions
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

18. The Limits of Democracy

Author:
D. Eric Schansberg
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
There’s an old saying that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all of the others. Or putting it another way: the best form of government is a benevolent and knowledgeable dictator, except for the problem of finding a good and wise leader. Whatever democracy’s strengths, they are relative not absolute, and they are contingent on context—namely, the people being governed, the people governing, and the underlying institutions.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Populism and the Pandemic in Southeast Asia

Author:
Paul D. Kenny
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Southeast Asian countries that are within close proximity to China were immediately affected by the spread of COVID-19 virus. Paul D. Kenny, Professor at the Australian Catholic University discusses the role of populism in public health responses to the virus and the reciprocal effect of the pandemic on the fate of populists in the region focusing on the Philippines and Indonesian cases. He argues that while the two governments took different responses to the pandemic crisis, both measures led to similar results in terms of how it affected support for the government. While President Duterte responded aggressively towards the pandemic with the issuance of Proclamation 922, President Jokowi’s response was substantially less coercive than that of Duterte’s. Professor Kenny states that both countries, in their current state, have seen similar results — support for both presidents in their respective countries remain considerably high. Nonetheless, the author adds that the continuing decline in Philippines’ economy may hamper his efforts in securing presidency.
Topic:
Government, Economy, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

20. Riding the Populist Wave – Europe’s Mainstream Right in Crisis

Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Whilst Conservative, Christian democratic and Liberal parties continue to play a crucial role in the democratic politics and governance of every Western European country, they are rarely paid the attention they deserve. This book reveals a mainstream right squeezed by the need to adapt to both 'the silent revolution' that has seen the spread of postmaterialist, liberal and cosmopolitan values and the backlash against those values - the 'silent counter-revolution' that has brought with it the rise of several far-right parties offering populist answers to many of Europe’s most contentious political problems.
Topic:
Politics, Social Movement, Populism, and Conservatism
Political Geography:
Europe