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2. Good Peacebuilding Financing: Recommendations for Revitalizing Commitments
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Paige Arthur, and Betty N. Wainaina
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- At a moment of intense global pressure due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, support for prevention and peacebuilding remains as vital as ever. This brief offers action-oriented recommendations to advance new and more inclusive approaches to peacebuilding financing on the eve of the UN High-level Meeting on Peacebuilding Financing.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Finance, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Gulf States and Peacebuilding: Key Characteristics, Dynamics, and Opportunities
- Author:
- Sultan Barakat
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- While the Gulf States have long been generous providers of foreign aid, it is only in recent years that they have publicly committed to playing a major role as peacebuilders. This paper analyzes the current role and prospects of the Gulf States as actors in the field of peacebuilding.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Aid, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
4. Does Justice Mind? Understanding the Links between Justice and Mental Health
- Author:
- Pema Doornenbal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Over the past two years, COVID-19 has deeply impacted mental health, both for individuals and entire communities, weakening trust between governments and people. This brief explores how justice systems and actors are interlinked with mental health and psychosocial wellbeing, and it makes the case for addressing the negative effects of these dynamics in a more systemized way.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Mental Health, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. Four reasons why the New Agenda for Peace should focus on nationally led violence prevention strategies
- Author:
- Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Over the past few years, the prevention of violence has gained new momentum at the United Nations (UN). However, the UN still lacks a comprehensive strategy to transform these commitments into action. The UN Charter mostly focuses on the prevention of international conflicts, while lethal violence is nowadays mostly concentrated within countries. Both member states and the UN have increasingly acknowledged the need to use a different approach to prevention, including through the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goal 16 (SDG 16) and the UN-World Bank report, Pathways for Peace. However, the operationalization of this approach remains unclear. The New Agenda for Peace is an opportunity for the UN to clarify its approach to the prevention of violence within a country (violent crime, violent extremism, and non-international armed conflict).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. North African standoff: How the Western Sahara conflict is fuelling new tensions between Morocco and Algeria
- Author:
- Anthony Dworkin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Morocco and Algeria have risen lately, and there is now a heightened risk of armed conflict arising. The escalation is rooted in the dispute over the status of Western Sahara, where Morocco appears to feel that its claim to sovereignty is gaining international support. Morocco and Algeria have significant relationships with Israel and Russia respectively, but they also have important partners in common that could play a role in preventing the standoff from worsening. Morocco and Algeria have interests in Europe that the EU and member states can use to minimise tensions, and reduce the risk of instability and increased migration flows across the Mediterranean. To achieve this, Europeans should strike a more balanced relationship with Morocco that does not alienate Algeria while also aiming to solidify its engagement with Algeria.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Western Sahara
7. The Challenges of Data Collection in Conflict-affected Areas: A Case Study in the Liptako-Gourma Region
- Author:
- Shourjya Deb and Virginie Baudais
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Conducting research in the Sahel has become more challenging over the past 10 years, and the continuing deterioration of the security situation has restricted access to many areas. This SIPRI Insights paper provides an overview of the main challenges for researchers when conducting data collection in conflict-affected areas. The paper employs a case study of a humanitarian protection project that SIPRI has been working on in the Liptako-Gourma region. The project was designed in collaboration with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) and three local research partners: the Centre for Democratic Governance (CGD) in Burkina Faso, Point Sud in Mali and the Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherche sur les Dynamiques Sociales et le Développement Local (LASDEL) in Niger. Using the case study, the paper identifies and outlines how the project addressed specific challenges. The paper also highlights key considerations for researchers to take into account when carrying out data collection and fieldwork in conflict zones. Evidence-based research can influence humanitarian and development initiatives and support shifts in policy and programming. The bottom-up research approach gives a voice to communities and alternative perspectives and advances evidence-based solutions that are locally driven, meaningful and sustainable for target populations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Governance, Conflict, Peace, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
8. War Is a Choice, Not a Trap: The Right Lessons from Thucydides
- Author:
- Michael C. Desch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- A careful reading of the Greek Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War suggests that a U.S.-China war is hardly inevitable. Such a war is a choice, not a trap, and selecting the appropriate U.S. grand strategy is the way to avoid it. China faces important geographical and technological obstacles to expanding its hegemonic position in the region. Thucydides’ fundamental lessons for the contemporary United States in its rivalry with China is that democratic Athens erred when it sought primacy by expanding its empire during the Peloponnesian War; today we do not need to preserve a position of primacy in East Asia but can instead rest content with maintaining a balance of power. Despite China’s rise, the United States and its regional allies are in a strong position to maintain a regional balance of power that keeps a peace and serve U.S. interests in Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, War, History, Alliance, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
9. U.S. Relations With China: DACOR Conference Summary
- Author:
- Keith McCormick and Emma W. Sandifer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- As relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) loom ever larger for the U.S., DACOR’s annual conference in 2022 focused on “Balancing Competing Interests in U.S. Relations With China.” The Washington-based organization of foreign affairs professionals brought together diplomats and academics to explore the idea that U.S. policy toward China needs to pursue cooperation in some areas and competition in others while simultaneously confronting Beijing and preparing to deter or win a conflict, if it comes to war. The hybrid conference, with some attendees present at the historic DACOR-Bacon house and others joining online, was conducted under Chatham House Rules. The keynote address, by Ambassador (ret.) J. Stapleton Roy, was live-streamed to a classroom of political science faculty and students at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
10. The “Stable Nuclear Deterrent” collapses in the Ukraine War
- Author:
- Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The comforting narrative of a dependable and stable nuclear deterrence between the US and Russia has been thrown into disarray by the War in Ukraine. This narrative, propagated widely in the years following the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, held that both the Super Powers fully appreciated that they could not “win” a nuclear battle and, therefore, would avoid direct conventional warfare, which might then quickly escalate into nuclear war. In a necessary corollary, it was thought that Russia and the US would make every effort to avoid a conventional war in Europe. Why? Because there are so many paths to escalation to nuclear war in Europe. Elsewhere in the world, US and Russian interests were more diffuse and, therefore, not so vital.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
11. Israeli Raids on Palestinian Civil Society Organizations — The Costs of International Inaction
- Author:
- Shawan Jabarin, Raed Jarrar, Lara Friedman, Khaled Quzmar, Zaha Hassan, Sahar Francis, Ubal al-Aboudi, Khaled Elgindy, Moayyad Bsharat, and Tahreer Jaber
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Co-convened by the Middle East Institute, the Foundation for Middle East Peace, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, DAWN, the International Crisis Group, Century International and USMEP.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Human Rights, International Law, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
12. CONFLICT MINERALS LEGISLATION: SHOOTING AT THE WRONG TARGET… AGAIN
- Author:
- Marijke Verpoorten and Nik Stoop
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- On January 1, 2021, the European Conflict Minerals Act came into force. It aims to regulate the trade in four minerals—tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold, also known as 3TG—that are often sourced from conflict-affected countries where the profits may allow armed groups to finance their activities. The regulation aims to break the link between minerals and conflict by ensuring that European Union (EU)-based companies only import minerals from conflict-free sources. If companies import minerals from conflict regions, the law requires them to report where the minerals were mined, the location of processing and trade, and the taxes and fees that were paid.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Conflict, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
13. Russia’s Coercive Diplomacy: Why Did the Kremlin Mass Its Forces Near Ukraine This Spring?
- Author:
- Rob Lee
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- During March and April 2021, the Russian military conducted a large-scale buildup in its regions bordering Ukraine, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Scores of videos appeared on TikTok, Telegram, Twitter, and other social media sites showing Russian military equipment, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, and air defense systems, moving toward or appearing in the vicinity of Ukraine’s borders. The United States Department of Defense’s spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that the Russian buildup was even larger than during the peak of the fighting in 2014. Ukrainian officials estimated that the Russian military buildup would reach a total of 120,000 Russian troops with more than fifty-six battalion tactical groups (BTG). United States defense officials gave a lower estimate that 48 BTGs had moved into the border area and 80,000 Russian troops were in Crimea or elsewhere near Ukraine’s borders. To put this in perspective, the Russian military has approximately 850,000-900,000 servicemembers in total, and 168 constant readiness BTGs, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. If these estimates were accurate, the Russian military massed roughly 10-15% of its total manpower and approximately one third of its BTGs near Ukraine’s borders. In response to the buildup, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and President Joe Biden all called their Russian counterparts to discuss the situation. U.S. European Command (EUCOM) raised its alert status to its highest level. The buildup also coincided with an increase in fighting along the line of contact, with at least 36 Ukrainian servicemen killed thus far in 2021. The movement of Russian forces led to intense speculation about Russia’s intentions, including fears of a large-scale ground invasion. However, U.S. intelligence indicated that a large-scale ground invasion was unlikely because of a lack of prepositioned spare parts, field hospitals, ammunition, and other logistics necessary for such an operation. Likewise, EUCOM commander General Tod Wolters said on April 15 that there was a “low to medium” risk of a Russian ground invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks. On April 22, after the end of a large-scale exercise at the Opuk training area in Crimea, which included an amphibious landing, a helicopter air assault operation with two companies, and a multi-battalion airborne operation with more than two thousand paratroopers and sixty vehicles parachuted from forty Il-76MD transport aircraft, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the winter verification tests for the Western and Southern Military Districts had been a success and the troops would return to their permanent bases. However, he indicated that equipment from Central Military District’s 41st Combined Arms Army, which included BM-27 Uragan multiple launch rocket systems and Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems and other heavy equipment, would remain at the Pogonovo training area in Voronezh near Ukraine’s border until the Zapad 2021 strategic exercise in September. Furthermore, Shoigu did not state clearly whether all of the equipment and units deployed near Ukraine’s borders outside of Crimea would also return to their bases, nor how those units were employed during the snap inspection. Two weeks after Shoigu’s announcement, U.S. defense officials said that Russia had removed only “a few thousand” troops and that there were approximately 80,000 servicemen near Ukraine’s borders, despite Shoigu’s order for most of those units to return to their permanent bases by May 1. Thus Russia can still escalate rapidly in Ukraine in the future, though the immediate threat of a serious escalation of fighting in the Donbas appears to have passed with Shoigu’s announcement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America
14. Turkey’s Soft Power in the Balkans Reaching its Limits
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- With the EU putting the Western Balkan countries in an undefined waiting room, there was more room for maneuver for non-EU players. Turkey among others used this space to broaden its influence in the Balkans from politics to the economy, from culture to military cooperation, albeit from a very low starting point. The bilateral relations with all countries of the region are rather good, President Erdogan enjoys the recognition he is often lacking in other parts of the world. While the pandemic further harmed the EU’s image, it was mostly China and Russia who could fill the void with their own vaccines. Lacking its own vaccine so far, Turkey was much less visible. However, in the long-run, Turkey is not interested in an EU-Turkey confrontation over the Western Balkans, but that these countries join the EU. Through this, Turkey would increase the number of allies in a bloc where friends have become few.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, and Balkans
15. Tangled Threats: Integrating U.S. Strategies toward China and North Korea
- Author:
- Jacob Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- China and North Korea pose intertwined challenges for U.S. and allied policy. The Korean Peninsula constitutes just one area among many in U.S.-China relations. Meanwhile, issues on the peninsula remain central to the future stability and security of Northeast Asia and implicate many broader questions about regional and global order. Dealing with China and North Korea as an interlocking pair requires integrated policies that balance the risks and rewards of various possible approaches. This policy brief explains how to develop such policies and why they are the best option for the current regional landscape. North Korea plays several roles in China’s foreign policy. These include diverting geopolitical attention away from China, providing Beijing with an opportunity to cooperate with other states, creating a point of leverage for China to extract concessions on separate issues, and acting as a flashpoint with the potential for a regional war that directly affects China’s security. At any given time, some roles will be more pronounced than others, but each of them is always present to some degree. Any integrated U.S. strategy toward the pair will have to account for a volatile geopolitical landscape in Northeast Asia. Major trends include closer ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and South Korea’s desire, especially under the government of President Moon Jae-in, to engage North Korea while balancing ties with China and the United States. The United States should employ a strategy toward China and North Korea that blends calibrated pressure and results-oriented engagement. The goal of this strategy should be problem-management rather than problem-solving. Washington should implement this approach across four areas: shaping U.S.-China relations regarding the Korean Peninsula; engaging North Korea on political and security issues; promoting stable deterrence in the region; and coordinating a shared inter-Korean and foreign policy with South Korea. Key recommendations for the United States include acknowledging that major breakthroughs are unlikely with either China or North Korea; proposing four-party nuclear and peace talks with South Korea, North Korea, China, and the United States; and standing up a Nuclear Planning Group that includes Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo to bolster deterrence and stem nuclear proliferation pressures.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
16. State-Centric Approach to Resolving the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon: What Prospects?
- Author:
- Francis Tazoacha
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute, a think–thank of Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation, Simbock, Yaoundé, Cameroon, hosted a webinar on January 26, 2021 on the theme: “Can the Anglophone Crisis be Solved Through a State-Centric Approach?” Hosted in partnership with the National Endowment for Democracy based in Washington DC, the webinar sought to know if the ongoing conflict in North West and South West Cameroon can be resolved through a state–centric approach. Bringing together about 68 participants, the January 2021 webinar sought to provide a platform for knowledge sharing and dialogue on the anglophone conflict and brainstorming to see if the state alone can resolve the conflict without the involvement of other stakeholders. The meeting sought to address a widely recognized need for the government of Cameroon to ensure greater involvement of civil society organizations, regional bodies, the United Nations, the African Union, Nation States and international mediators in the sustainable resolution of the conflict. For the past four years, the socio-political climate of the Anglophone regions of Cameroon has been very volatile. The long-standing grievances among the Anglophone population in the North West and South West Regions of Cameroon concerning marginalisation particularly in the educational and legal systems by the Francophone-dominated government led to widespread protests in October 2016.1 The conflict escalated from a peaceful demonstration that was met with a heavy crackdown from the government security forces in 2017. As a result, the situation morphed into an armed conflict with increasing support by the population in the Anglophone regions to seek independence from Cameroun – French Cameroon – as an independent “Republic of Ambazonia.” Since 2017, the conflict has continued unabated without any party seeming to surrender and thus end the war. Despite attempts from the national and international communities to intervene and resolve this destructive conflict, it has nevertheless, resulted in an impasse.2 The government of Cameroon opted for a military strategy from the very beginning of the peaceful protest that quickly changed into an armed conflict. Some pundits attribute this escalation to November 30, 2017 when President Biya, upon his return from Abidjan, Ivory Coast – after attending the 5th African Union-European Union Summit – declared to pressmen at the Yaoundé Nsimalen International Airport that he would put an end to the series of killings of forces of law. He also said he would order in general and the massacres around Mamfe in the South West Region, at the time all claimed to have been perpetrated by “Anglophone separatists.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Conflict, Nation-State, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
17. Identity and Nation-Building in Ukraine: Reconciliation of Identities from a Conflict Prevention Perspective
- Author:
- Nina Henke
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- In less than 20 years after gaining its independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has faced several events, which have shaped the process of nation-building. The Euromaidan, the annexation of Crimea and the armed conflict with Russia have intensified the ‘us–them’ line of self-identification of the “Ukrainians” versus the “Others”. Ongoing “Ukrainisation” is spreading insecurity among minority groups and endangers possibilities to establish a cohesive Ukrainian society with a shared sense of belonging. In the context of a multicultural Ukrainian space and the international commitments of the State to protect and promote rights of its national, ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities, adopting an ethnocentric approach to the nation-building of the country is a conflict-prone factor. By examining and discussing identities in the perspective of the ongoing nation-building process in Ukraine, this research paper aims to identify the potential of the State and individuals to find mechanisms and grounds for reconciliation and integration. This is approached through a series of in-depth interviews and a complex analysis of current political guidelines on education, language and decommunisation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, State Building, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
18. India’s Networking Response to the Chinese Threat
- Author:
- Rajesh Basrur
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- India has experienced rising tensions with China in recent years, as demonstrated by two border crises in 2017 and 2020-21. The second event saw the death of some 20 Indian troops, and at least 4 Chinese soldiers, in hand-to-hand combat – the first fatalities in nearly half a century of periodic border face-offs. New Delhi’s policy response has spanned both internal and external balancing. The former has involved augmenting India’s capacity to engage in limited combat of the type that nuclear-armed states have occasionally fought, as did the Soviet Union and China in 1969 and India and Pakistan in 1999. The Indian military has bolstered its border by deploying combat troops, cruise missiles, and advanced combat aircraft. However, China has done much the same, putting pressure on India to upscale its military capabilities. Simultaneously, India has tried to reduce its dependence on the Chinese economy, a more complicated task. Despite a 10 percent decline in bilateral trade owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and border tensions, China was India’s largest trading partner ($77.7 billion) in 2020. The Narendra Modi government sharply cut Chinese investment when the 2020 border confrontation in Ladakh broke out, expelling major Chinese companies like TikTok, WeChat, and UC Browser. Despite these measures, India’s ability to shut China out of its economy is limited. The Indian market depends heavily on Chinese electronic components (70 percent in value terms), pharmaceutical ingredients (70 percent), and consumer durables (45 percent).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
19. India’s Options in a Contested Environment: Constraints and Prospects
- Author:
- Prakash Gopal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The past year has witnessed tumultuous and unforeseen changes in the global geopolitical landscape due to the pandemic. While India struggles to contain its devastating second wave, it is simultaneously confronted with a significant national security challenge from across the disputed Himalayan border with China. A skirmish along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that started in May 2020 escalated rapidly into a full-blown crisis, with clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, causing casualties on both sides. After multiple rounds of talks, the crisis remains unresolved and has starkly exposed India’s lack of credible deterrence that could either deny or punish China’s belligerence across the unsettled border. In response to the border crisis, the Indian government promoted and contributed to the rapid coalescence of the quadrilateral security dialogue (Quad)—a loose coalition of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Notable milestones in the Quad’s accelerated development include the addition of Australia in the Malabar series of naval exercises and several high-level meetings of officials from the four countries, the highest-profile of which being the first leaders’ summit in March 2021. The assumption that India’s sudden moves to consolidate the Quad were driven primarily by Chinese actions along the LAC may be debated. Nevertheless, if that is the case, it follows that India views its renewed efforts in coalition-building as part of a solution to its China problem. Though the Quad may be useful in tackling security threats in the larger Indo-Pacific region, in the near term, it is unlikely to meaningfully contribute to bolstering India’s ability to deter China along land borders or in the maritime domain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Geopolitics, Borders, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, and India
20. Pivoting to African Conflict Prevention? An Analysis of Continental and Regional Early Warning Systems
- Author:
- Amandine Gnanguênon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Early warning systems (EWS) are at the heart of conflict prevention strategies, particularly as a component of operational prevention. EWS support decision-makers with timely information, analysis and response options. Although the first generation of EWS have been around since the 1970s and 1980s, they did not come to prominence until the 1990s. In the aftermath of the war trauma in Somalia and the Mano River region (Liberia and Sierra Leone) and the 1994 Rwanda genocide, African EWS – in particular those of the Organisation of African Unity, its successor, the African Union (AU), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – were developed to address threats to human security. These EWS have served as a strong foundation for early warning and early action (EWEA) in the continent. Many lessons have been learned in particular from West Africa’s experience, namely from the ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network (ECOWARN), launched in 2003. ECOWARN has the capability to reform institutions from within the organisation and take grassroots perspectives into account, positioning it as the most advanced regional EWEA system in Africa. Creating the AU in 2002 marked a shift from non-intervention to non-indifference at the continental level. The African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) was an opportunity for African states to display strong political will to develop conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms, by establishing the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) as one of the APSA’s five components. Over the years, multiple reinforcements have provided African institutions and member states with human, logistical and financial capacities to monitor, analyse and develop tailored and timely responses and policy options to address security challenges. Yet the EWEA gap, at both continental (CEWS) and regional (ECOWARN) levels, remains substantial and affects the full operationalisation of the prevention agenda. Why have political decision-makers not implemented those preventive tools adequately? How can closer relationships between regional and continental EWS in Africa bridge the EWEA gap? To answer these questions, this Conflict Series Brief investigates the challenges and opportunities of cooperation between ECOWARN, the most sophisticated African regional EWEA system, and CEWS, a continental hub for data collection and analysis. It begins by analysing the impact of a lack of clear and systematic collaboration between regional and continental organisations on the development of the overall African EWS. While challenges remain in the institutional division of labour between the AU and ECOWAS, there has been progress in designing their EWS and implementing data collection and analysis. The second part of this Brief argues that the persistent EWEA gap lies in three main challenges on which CEWS and ECOWARN have focused their efforts: the lack of regular interaction between early warning (EW) officials and decision-makers, the unpredictability of conflict dynamics and the political dimensions of conflict responses. The Brief concludes by presenting some lessons learned for Africa’s prevention agenda.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Reform, Conflict, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
21. Conflict and Crisis in South Sudan’s Equatoria
- Author:
- Alan Boswell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- South Sudan’s civil war expanded into Equatoria, the country’s southernmost region, in 2016, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee into neighboring Uganda in what has been called Africa’s largest refugee exodus since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Equatoria is now the last major hot spot in the civil war. If lasting peace is to come to South Sudan, writes Alan Boswell, it will require a peace effort that more fully reckons with the long-held grievances of Equatorians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
22. Enhancing U.S.-China Strategic Stability in an Era of Strategic Competition
- Author:
- Patricia M. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- As strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, preventing a destabilizing arms race and lowering the risk of military, especially nuclear, confrontation is critical. The essays in this volume—based on a series of workshops convened by USIP’s Asia Center in late 2020—highlight both the striking differences and the commonalities between U.S. and Chinese assessments of the root causes of instability and the drivers of conflict in the nuclear, conventional missile and missile defense, space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence realms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Peace, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
23. Handbook on the Prevention and Resolution of Self-Determination Conflicts
- Author:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The Handbook on the Prevention and Resolution of Self-Determination Conflicts is the latest product of a long and fruitful collaboration between the Mission of Liechtenstein to the United Nations, New York, and the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University to assess the relationship of self-determination to conflict. The Handbook includes four case studies: Aceh, Bougainville, Mindanao, and Northern Ireland, in addition to setting out guidelines specifically aimed at those working to prevent and resolve self-determination conflicts. The handbook was conceived chiefly as the result of two meetings on self-determination held jointly by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination and the Liechtenstein Mission to the UN: “Models of Self-Governance as Tools to Promote Peace and Stability in Europe,” held in March 2016, in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein, and “Self-Determination in Conflict Prevention and Resolution,” held in December 2018, in Princeton, New Jersey, U.S.A. In these meetings, participants discussed the relationship between self-determination and conflict, as well as ways that self-determination conflicts may be prevented and resolved. These discussions drew on the tensions and links between self-determination, minority rights, autonomy and self-governance, and mediation, all of which are key elements of the handbook.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Governance, Self Determination, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
24. Mitigating the risk of a China–India conflict
- Author:
- Arzan Tarapore
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- More than a year has passed since Chinese troops began to occupy previously Indian-controlled territory on their disputed border in Ladakh. The crisis has cooled and settled into a stalemate. This report warns that it could escalate again, and flare into a conflict with region-wide implications. The report assesses the risk of conflict by analysing its likelihood and consequences. A possible war would be costly for both India and China. But a possible war could also risk stirring Indian distrust of its new partners, especially in the Quad – Australia, Japan, and the United States. The report outlines some conditions under which a war would disrupt or dampen those developing partnerships. The report concludes by offering a framework for policymakers to shape India’s expectations and the strategic environment before and during a possible war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
25. A Scoping Study of CSVR's Work with Gender and Gender-Based Violence
- Author:
- Steven Rebello
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- This report highlights CSVR's work with gender and gender-based violence (GBV). It briefly highlights international best practices in terms of GBV prevention as well as CSVR research, advocacy, clinical, community and organisational interventions related to gender and GBV. Themes identified through focus group discussions with staff also highlight the perceived strengths and challenges associated with CSVR's gender-related work. The report concludes with recommendations that staff viewed as having value for both internal and external audiences.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa
26. Youth Inclusion in Socio-Economic and Livelihood Programmes: Potential for Fostering Social Cohesion and Violence Prevention in East and Southern Africa
- Author:
- Steven Rebello
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- In collaboration with the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS), Kenya, CSVR has been conducting research on the role of public employment and livelihood support programmes in fostering greater youth social and economic inclusion as well as violence prevention. By reviewing literature, select policies and programmes, this report highlights some of the key opportunities and challenges related to youth social and economic inclusion in Southern and East Africa.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Youth, Violence, and Social Cohesion
- Political Geography:
- Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa
27. Governing Parameters: Will the New Governments in Israel and Iran Affect the Ongoing Tensions Between Them?
- Author:
- Rania Makram
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Israel and Iran are witnessing significant political changes that affected the ruling elites. The developments came in the wake of early legislative elections held in Israel in March leading to the formation of a new coalition government headed by Naftali Benett, leader of the right-wing party Yamina. In Iran, presidential elections held on June 18, were won by hardline chief justice Ebrahim Raisi. The internal political dynamics in Tel Aviv and Tehran cast a shadow on the whole political landscape in both countries, and are projected to have an impact on the trajectory of the non-traditional conflict between the two sides, which escalated over the past few months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
28. Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way
- Author:
- Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- There is a growing bipartisan consensus in Washington on a tighter embrace of Taiwan, which may soon become a stronger implied US commitment to go to war in the event of a Chinese invasion. Taiwan matters to US security and the regional order, and the United States should continue to make clear that aggression is unacceptable. But those advocating a stronger US security commitment exaggerate the strategic consequences of a successful Chinese invasion. The stakes are not so high as to warrant an unqualified US pledge to go to war. American decision-makers, like their forebears confronting the seeming threat of communism in Indochina, may be trapping themselves into an unnecessarily stark conception of the consequences of a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It would be irresponsible for the United States to leave itself no option in the event of Chinese aggression other than war. But nor should Washington abandon Taiwan. There is a prudent middle way: the United States should act as armourer, but not guarantor. It should help prepare Taiwan to defend itself, to raise costs against aggression, and develop means of punishing China with non-military tools.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
29. The Post-COVID-19 Trajectory for Algeria, Morocco and the Western Sahara
- Author:
- Michaël Tanchum
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As Algeria and Morocco enter 2021, the bilateral relationship stands at a crossroads in which the status quo is no longer tenable. The COVID-19 pandemic and Morocco’s spate of diplomatic successes during 2020, culminating with the US’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara in December, have altered the long-standing, geopolitical dynamics of the Western Maghreb. Algeria now faces the critical decision of whether and how to attempt to offset Morocco’s rising power. The enduring détente between Algeria and Morocco had been characterised by limited coordination against shared threats such as terrorism and a contained competition in the Western Sahara. Since 1991, the Algerian-backed Polisario Front, which seeks to establish an independent Sahrawi state in the Western Sahara, abandoned its armed struggle in favour of working through the framework of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Algeria, Morocco, and Sahara
30. Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey
- Author:
- Flavio Fusco
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Building on emerging debates on the need to develop de-escalation mechanisms for the Middle East, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), with support from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, launched a one-year research and outreach project entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. Connected to the research, an expert survey targeting European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese experts and practitioners was conducted on key themes, principles and approaches associated with a potential new security architecture for the region. The results of the survey – first published in an edited book volume jointly published by IAI and FEPS in November 2020 – are analysed below, complete with tables and infographics on key themes associated with the research project and the search for new, inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America
31. An evidence review of violence prevention in South Africa
- Author:
- Matodzi Amisi and Sara N Naicker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
- Abstract:
- This policy brief presents findings from an evidence review of violence prevention interventions implemented in South Africa. The review draws on an evidence map published in 2019,1 and additional papers since then. It includes evidence generated through qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The review summarises the available evidence, with an assessment of quality, and perhaps most importantly it highlights the contextual factors that impact success. The review was guided by the question: ‘How and in what context do interventions impact perpetration and victimisation; and how can violence prevention interventions be implemented at scale?’ The approach taken to answer this question is similar to a narrative review. The objective was not to aggregate results from the studies but to summarise the evidence. Narrative review typically involves the selection, chronicling and ordering of evidence to produce an account of the evidence. This allowed us to include both qualitative and quantitative studies, a range of interventions, and to be interpretive. The review was carried out in four phases (Chart 1). Each paper or report was read in full and data extracted. In addition, an assessment of the quality of evidence presented in each paper or report was undertaken. A standardised tool rated each study on its conceptualisation, research question, sample size, context, control of confounding variable, etc.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Gender Based Violence, Violence, Sexual Violence, and Victims
- Political Geography:
- Africa
32. The interstate conflict potential of the information domain
- Author:
- Dumitru Minzarari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic has not only triggered a crisis in public health and safety that engendered a significant economic fallout. The pandemic has also triggered an infodemic, one that sets the context for a significant spike in anti-NATO and anti-Western propaganda. Unless countermeasures are taken, the already deteriorating public opinion vis-a-vis the Alliance can be expected to worsen. Viewed individually, these two pandemic's outcomes have not critically threatened the Alliance; however, their combined effect could become a formidable challenge for NATO. Despite the measures taken, the pandemic is likely to continue exacerbating the frustrations among member states, further fraying the Alliance's unity. This, arguably, is the most immediate and concerning challenge facing NATO today.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, NATO, Public Health, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
33. Catalyst or crisis? COVID-19 and European Security
- Author:
- Claudia Major
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 crisis is teaching European countries that a pandemic can destabilize societies, the economy and political institutions to the same extent that military or hybrid threats do. However, while the pandemic's impact on European security seems massive, it is difficult to isolate the COVID-19 factor: what is uniquely pandemic-driven, and what is the result of other elements, such as the lack of US leadership, is not always easy to determine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Institutions, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
34. Reducing Russia-NATO Tensions: Codes for Unplanned Encounters at Sea
- Author:
- Liselotte Odgaard and Sune Lund
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- This report first analyzes the use of CUES in the South China Sea, which is the region they initially were designed for as an instrument to prevent unwanted escalation. In what sense have CUES in the South China Sea set a precedent for reassurance measures in other regions? Second, we discuss whether CUES could be useful to lower tension levels between Russia and NATO in their ongoing conflicts over spheres of interest, strategic space, and appropriate deterrence measures in maritime Europe. The analysis draws on the first-hand experiences of personnel engaged in implementing the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES). This allows us to go beyond rhetorical announcements of intention and understand how de-escalation instruments are used at the level of implementation and whether they have any effect. Third, we conclude by discussing the caveats to and advantages of adopting CUES in the Euro-Atlantic area and how they should be designed to take the specific strategic context of this area into account.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and United States of America
35. The Influence of Diplomacy on Controversies: A Comparative Study Between Diplomatic Mediation and Armed Conflict
- Author:
- Cícero Ricci Cavini
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- International Security developed after the World War II, under the aspect of state protection. Traditional security currents have developed their theories in a Cold War environment, thus, there are epistemological elements of Rationalism and Positivism (Barrinha 2013; Lasmar 2017). The goal of this study is to observe the influence of diplomacy on international controversies, analyze real situations where diplomacy influenced the mediation choice and the armed conflict choice, and finally, deepen the knowledge of the consequences of war and mediation. The article has its theoretical framework on Post-Structuralism, characterized by Lasmar (2017) by the conditioning of the human being as meaning and attributor of the facts (social construction). In the International Security sphere, Post-Structuralism must nominate the threat or the protection as also the means for this. Therefore, it can expose the hidden intentions in the act of political construction (including political speech). The authors and researchers Christer Jönsson and Karin Aggestam question the preference of the states for mediation or war, and, given that, we intend to contribute with analysis under the diplomatic prism. Thus, we can align the revisited theory to the diplomatic actions, collaborating with the international security system.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Global Focus
36. Sino-US Kashmir Policy: Analyzing The Bilateral Approach
- Author:
- Sumeera Imran and Lubna Abid Ali
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Sino-Indian stand-off in Galwan has revived world attention to the dispute in Kashmir. Indian revocation of Article 370 and Article 35-A propped up diverse responses from the international community. China condemned Indian abrogation and the US offered to mediate on Kashmir. Trump’s offer of mediation opened up a pandora box of strong opposition in Indian Lok Sabha. Resolute criticism unleashed on Modi for compromising on Indian national security objectives and territorial integrity. Reflecting the urgency and complications involved in conflict resolution, the propensity of nuclear confrontation in South Asia remains high in Kashmir. US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has declared Human Rights in Kashmir as integral part of his electoral agenda. The US State Department has declared no change in its historic Kashmir policy, while China has resented Indian unilateral change in the region’s status. Great powers’ involvement in regional conflicts has been fluid, fluctuating with the change in their national security interests. Broad contours of national security objectives have shaped Sino-US Kashmir policy in the past. Employing qualitative research methodology and theoretical perspective of complex interdependence, the article reviews Sino-US traditional policy roles in conflict resolution on Kashmir. How has the US and Chinese Kashmir policy evolved over the years? What impact does the US and Chinese Kashmir policy has on regional stability? The article argues that great powers’ involvement has inflicted more injury than cure, exacerbating regional tensions. Great powers’ alignment along opposite poles has increased India-Pakistan bilateral hostilities on Kashmir. Sino-US insistence on Indo-Pakistan bilateral approach for conflict resolution rather than the UN framework has created the impasse on Kashmir.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- China, Kashmir, and United States of America
37. Protests, Not Geopolitics, Will Shape the Middle East in the New Decade
- Author:
- Rabah Arezki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- However unsurmountable geopolitical crises may seem today, it will be domestic protests that determine the social and economic landscape in the Middle East in the coming years. The Middle East has been plunged into turmoil. The killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani by the United States on 3 January 2020 created a tense military and political situation in the region. In response, Tehran said it would abandon the 2015 accord under which it agreed to restrictions on its nuclear program and fired rockets at bases housing the US military in Iraq. Washington has sent more troops to the region and imposed new economic sanctions on Iran. However, further escalation seems to have been avoided—at least so far.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Geopolitics, Protests, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
38. The Middle East Accords: An Arab Perspective
- Author:
- Imad K. Harb
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- The recent agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Sudan will not help the cause of regional peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and United Arab Emirates
39. The Middle East Accords: an American Perspective
- Author:
- Edward Marks
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- While the recent accords with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Sudan moves Israel further along the path of regional integration and diplomatic normalization, the deal does nothing for Israel’s other existential threat — the Palestinians living in Israel proper, the West Bank, and Gaza. Nevertheless, it is a big deal. It is all part of the evolving Middle East where Arab support for the Palestinians has been melting for years. For decades, many Arab states were united in their hostility toward Israel and support for the Palestinian cause, even though in some cases that backing was largely rhetorical. But change has been under way for decades, beginning with the Egyptian and Jordanian formal recognition of Israel and then in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative (API). That Saudi Arabian initiative called for normalizing relations between the Arab world and Israel, in exchange for a full withdrawal by Israel from the occupied territories (including the West Bank, Gaza, the Golan Heights, and Lebanon), a “just settlement” of the Palestinian refugee problem based on UN Resolution 242, and the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Integration, Peace, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
40. Korea versus Korea: Conventional Military Balance and the Path to Disarmament
- Author:
- Charles Knight and Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Varied incremental steps that embody and signal the accumulating commitment to a minimally acceptable common political future for Korea are key to this process. Progressive reduction of cross-border invasion threats through mutual confidence building force restructuring will constitute a virtuous circle of reinforcement for a changed relationship. [Through the] accumulation of the sunk costs of iterative reciprocity North and South Korea will arrive at a point where the demonstrated commitment to smaller restructured military postures is sufficient to allow rapid progress toward a stable level and disposition of arms compatible with a new peaceful political relationship.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
41. THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PANDEMIC
- Author:
- Evan Perkoski
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Will the COVID-19 pandemic increase or decrease conflict around the globe? Across myriad blog posts and op-eds, a consensus appears to be emerging: in the short term, the global community may experience a pax epidemia, as Barry Posen refers to it, where “the odds of a war between major powers will go down, not up.” But the opposite may be true for intrastate conflict—e.g. civil wars and insurgencies—where conditions seem ripe for more turbulent subnational politics.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, War, Conflict, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42. R2P Monitor, Issue 53, 15 September 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 53 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Mozambique, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
43. Peacekeeping and the Enforcement of Intergroup Cooperation, Evidence from Mali
- Author:
- William G. Nomikos
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- Despite the abundance of evidence that peacekeeping works, we know little about what actually makes peacekeepers effective. Recent work suggesting that local agendas are central to modern conflicts make this omission particularly problematic. The article demonstrates that the presence of peacekeepers makes individuals more optimistic about the risks of engagement and the likelihood that members of outgroups will reciprocate cooperation. I use data from a lab-in-the-field experiment conducted in Mali, a West African country with an active conflict managed by troops from France and the United Nations (UN), to show that UN peacekeepers increase the willingness of individuals to cooperate relative to control and French enforcers. Moreover, I find that UN peacekeepers are especially effective among those participants who hold other groups and institutions in low esteem as well as those who have more frequent contact with peacekeepers. Follow-up interviews and surveys suggest that perceptions of the UN as unbiased rather than other mechanisms account for its effectiveness.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
44. Four Conflict Prevention Opportunities for South Africa’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the years right after apartheid fell, South Africa was a leader in continental diplomacy, brokering peace accords and bolstering multilateral institutions. Its role subsequently diminished, but today it is well placed to make a positive difference in several trouble spots. What’s new? Midway through its term on the UN Security Council, and having just become chair of the African Union, the South African government led by Cyril Ramaphosa has a strong platform from which to reassert Pretoria’s continental leadership in efforts to mitigate Africa’s violent conflicts. Why does it matter? As Africa deals with more challenges to regional stability than it can readily handle, South Africa’s re-emergence as a leader in conflict prevention would be good for Pretoria, good for a continent that continues to prefer African solutions to African problems and good for the people of conflict-affected areas. What should be done? South Africa should enhance its focus on Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan, which lie at the intersection of national, AU and UN priorities. Pretoria should also redouble efforts to steer neighbouring Zimbabwe away from crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and Democratic Republic of Congo
45. Southern Thailand’s Peace Dialogue: Giving Substance to Form
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Talks to end the insurgency in Thailand’s southernmost provinces have repeatedly encountered obstacles, including the main rebel organisation’s abstention from the current round. With a new Thai official taking charge, and inviting that group to rejoin, both parties should drop objections that have hindered progress. What’s new? A peace dialogue process between the Thai government and Malay-Muslim separatists may be entering a new phase after stagnating for more than a year. A new Thai delegation chief has called for direct talks with the main insurgent group, Barisan Revolusi Nasional, which has rejected the existing dialogue. Why does it matter? Though the level of violence in Thailand’s deep south has declined over the years, recent attacks in Bangkok and Yala highlight the continuing threat. Meanwhile, civilians remain caught up in a protracted conflict that has claimed more than 7,000 lives since 2004. What should be done? The dialogue process needs a reboot, with Barisan Revolusi Nasional included. That group should prepare to engage constructively. Bangkok should overcome its aversion to international mediation and cease equating decentralisation with partition. The Thai government and Malaysia, the dialogue facilitator, should consider how to incorporate external mediation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia
46. The Price of Peace: Securing UN Financing for AU Peace Operations
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The African Union is best positioned to send peacekeepers to the continent’s various war zones. But it often lacks the funds available to the UN’s blue helmets. A compromise over co-financing peacekeeping missions would serve the conflict prevention goals of both institutions. What’s new? Attempts to reach agreement upon a UN Security Council resolution on using UN assessed contributions to co-finance African Union (AU) peace support operations have ended acrimoniously, damaging relations between the Council and the AU Peace and Security Council. Discussions are now on hold, offering the parties an opportunity to clarify positions. Why does it matter? Access to UN financing offers the hope of predictable and sustainable funding for vital AU peace operations, whose offensive mandates are often better suited to current conflict dynamics in Africa. An AU summit in February 2020 could determine if and how the proposal is pursued. What should be done? The UN and AU should pursue a compromise. It could involve agreeing to treat AU troop contributions as in-kind payment, creating a joint mechanism for monitoring human rights compliance, and stipulating that a commander reporting to both institutions will lead co-financed missions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
47. The Role of the Youth in Mitigating the Armed Conflict in Anglophone Cameroon
- Author:
- Tazoacha Francis
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The youths of any nation can be both a productive or destructive force depending on which side of the spectrum that society optimizes. They are the epitome of hope and the future of a nation and deserve to be encouraged and streamlined towards galvanizing their role in nation-building and sustainable development through an integrated approach. Youth would play very important roles in the advancement of their societies if they are given the least opportunity to do so and could ruin a society if they are alienated. Policymakers around the world have not yet attuned themselves to this compelling rhetoric which demands investing increasing attention to the youth as a way of engineering their role in shaping their societies. Almost half of the world’s population has been estimated to fall into the youth bracket. And with unemployment figures remaining extremely high, frustrating young people represent a ticking time bomb in the developing world [1]. Saddled with this reality, we can see the young generation playing a major role in the on-going conflict in the South West and North West regions of Cameroon. This is because the productive side of the spectrum has not been properly harnessed compelling them to pick up arms to fight and against the state of Cameroon to facilitate the restoration of the statehood of Southern Cameroon.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Youth, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Cameroon
48. Is It a Nuke?: Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation
- Author:
- James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Ambiguity about whether a weapon is nuclear-armed prior to its launch is an underappreciated, serious, and growing danger. Rising geopolitical tensions and the decay of arms control are exacerbating the risk that such pre-launch warhead ambiguity could lead to nuclear use in a crisis or conflict. Recent developments in technology—as well as potential future advances, such as the development of ambiguous intercontinental missiles—further add to the danger. A first step toward reducing these risks is to enhance awareness among decisionmakers of the causes and potential consequences of ambiguity. Unilateral and cooperative risk-mitigation measures could further reduce the danger of escalation, including in conflicts between the United States and Russia or the United States and China.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and United States of America
49. Gulf Security: The Arab Gulf States Have No Good Options
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout may rewrite the security as well as the political and economic map of the Middle East. The crisis will probably color Gulf attitudes towards the region’s major external players: the US, China, and Russia. Yet the Gulf States are likely to discover that their ability to shape the region’s map has significantly diminished.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
50. COVID-19 and Peace: Preparedness for the post-pandemic recovery
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace
- Abstract:
- The journey out of this global recession will be long and arduous. However two factors may assist countries along this path. The first is high levels of Positive Peace, guaranteeing effective institutions, social cohesion and transparent, representative governments. The second is favourable economic conditions before the onset of the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Health, Global Recession, Violence, Economic Policy, Institutions, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
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