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2. Good Peacebuilding Financing: Recommendations for Revitalizing Commitments
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Paige Arthur, and Betty N. Wainaina
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- At a moment of intense global pressure due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, support for prevention and peacebuilding remains as vital as ever. This brief offers action-oriented recommendations to advance new and more inclusive approaches to peacebuilding financing on the eve of the UN High-level Meeting on Peacebuilding Financing.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Finance, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Gulf States and Peacebuilding: Key Characteristics, Dynamics, and Opportunities
- Author:
- Sultan Barakat
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- While the Gulf States have long been generous providers of foreign aid, it is only in recent years that they have publicly committed to playing a major role as peacebuilders. This paper analyzes the current role and prospects of the Gulf States as actors in the field of peacebuilding.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Aid, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
4. Does Justice Mind? Understanding the Links between Justice and Mental Health
- Author:
- Pema Doornenbal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Over the past two years, COVID-19 has deeply impacted mental health, both for individuals and entire communities, weakening trust between governments and people. This brief explores how justice systems and actors are interlinked with mental health and psychosocial wellbeing, and it makes the case for addressing the negative effects of these dynamics in a more systemized way.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Mental Health, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. Four reasons why the New Agenda for Peace should focus on nationally led violence prevention strategies
- Author:
- Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Over the past few years, the prevention of violence has gained new momentum at the United Nations (UN). However, the UN still lacks a comprehensive strategy to transform these commitments into action. The UN Charter mostly focuses on the prevention of international conflicts, while lethal violence is nowadays mostly concentrated within countries. Both member states and the UN have increasingly acknowledged the need to use a different approach to prevention, including through the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goal 16 (SDG 16) and the UN-World Bank report, Pathways for Peace. However, the operationalization of this approach remains unclear. The New Agenda for Peace is an opportunity for the UN to clarify its approach to the prevention of violence within a country (violent crime, violent extremism, and non-international armed conflict).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. North African standoff: How the Western Sahara conflict is fuelling new tensions between Morocco and Algeria
- Author:
- Anthony Dworkin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Morocco and Algeria have risen lately, and there is now a heightened risk of armed conflict arising. The escalation is rooted in the dispute over the status of Western Sahara, where Morocco appears to feel that its claim to sovereignty is gaining international support. Morocco and Algeria have significant relationships with Israel and Russia respectively, but they also have important partners in common that could play a role in preventing the standoff from worsening. Morocco and Algeria have interests in Europe that the EU and member states can use to minimise tensions, and reduce the risk of instability and increased migration flows across the Mediterranean. To achieve this, Europeans should strike a more balanced relationship with Morocco that does not alienate Algeria while also aiming to solidify its engagement with Algeria.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Western Sahara
7. The Challenges of Data Collection in Conflict-affected Areas: A Case Study in the Liptako-Gourma Region
- Author:
- Shourjya Deb and Virginie Baudais
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Conducting research in the Sahel has become more challenging over the past 10 years, and the continuing deterioration of the security situation has restricted access to many areas. This SIPRI Insights paper provides an overview of the main challenges for researchers when conducting data collection in conflict-affected areas. The paper employs a case study of a humanitarian protection project that SIPRI has been working on in the Liptako-Gourma region. The project was designed in collaboration with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) and three local research partners: the Centre for Democratic Governance (CGD) in Burkina Faso, Point Sud in Mali and the Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherche sur les Dynamiques Sociales et le Développement Local (LASDEL) in Niger. Using the case study, the paper identifies and outlines how the project addressed specific challenges. The paper also highlights key considerations for researchers to take into account when carrying out data collection and fieldwork in conflict zones. Evidence-based research can influence humanitarian and development initiatives and support shifts in policy and programming. The bottom-up research approach gives a voice to communities and alternative perspectives and advances evidence-based solutions that are locally driven, meaningful and sustainable for target populations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Governance, Conflict, Peace, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
8. War Is a Choice, Not a Trap: The Right Lessons from Thucydides
- Author:
- Michael C. Desch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- A careful reading of the Greek Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War suggests that a U.S.-China war is hardly inevitable. Such a war is a choice, not a trap, and selecting the appropriate U.S. grand strategy is the way to avoid it. China faces important geographical and technological obstacles to expanding its hegemonic position in the region. Thucydides’ fundamental lessons for the contemporary United States in its rivalry with China is that democratic Athens erred when it sought primacy by expanding its empire during the Peloponnesian War; today we do not need to preserve a position of primacy in East Asia but can instead rest content with maintaining a balance of power. Despite China’s rise, the United States and its regional allies are in a strong position to maintain a regional balance of power that keeps a peace and serve U.S. interests in Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, War, History, Alliance, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
9. U.S. Relations With China: DACOR Conference Summary
- Author:
- Keith McCormick and Emma W. Sandifer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- As relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) loom ever larger for the U.S., DACOR’s annual conference in 2022 focused on “Balancing Competing Interests in U.S. Relations With China.” The Washington-based organization of foreign affairs professionals brought together diplomats and academics to explore the idea that U.S. policy toward China needs to pursue cooperation in some areas and competition in others while simultaneously confronting Beijing and preparing to deter or win a conflict, if it comes to war. The hybrid conference, with some attendees present at the historic DACOR-Bacon house and others joining online, was conducted under Chatham House Rules. The keynote address, by Ambassador (ret.) J. Stapleton Roy, was live-streamed to a classroom of political science faculty and students at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
10. The “Stable Nuclear Deterrent” collapses in the Ukraine War
- Author:
- Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The comforting narrative of a dependable and stable nuclear deterrence between the US and Russia has been thrown into disarray by the War in Ukraine. This narrative, propagated widely in the years following the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, held that both the Super Powers fully appreciated that they could not “win” a nuclear battle and, therefore, would avoid direct conventional warfare, which might then quickly escalate into nuclear war. In a necessary corollary, it was thought that Russia and the US would make every effort to avoid a conventional war in Europe. Why? Because there are so many paths to escalation to nuclear war in Europe. Elsewhere in the world, US and Russian interests were more diffuse and, therefore, not so vital.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
11. Israeli Raids on Palestinian Civil Society Organizations — The Costs of International Inaction
- Author:
- Shawan Jabarin, Raed Jarrar, Lara Friedman, Khaled Quzmar, Zaha Hassan, Sahar Francis, Ubal al-Aboudi, Khaled Elgindy, Moayyad Bsharat, and Tahreer Jaber
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Co-convened by the Middle East Institute, the Foundation for Middle East Peace, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, DAWN, the International Crisis Group, Century International and USMEP.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Human Rights, International Law, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
12. CONFLICT MINERALS LEGISLATION: SHOOTING AT THE WRONG TARGET… AGAIN
- Author:
- Marijke Verpoorten and Nik Stoop
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- On January 1, 2021, the European Conflict Minerals Act came into force. It aims to regulate the trade in four minerals—tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold, also known as 3TG—that are often sourced from conflict-affected countries where the profits may allow armed groups to finance their activities. The regulation aims to break the link between minerals and conflict by ensuring that European Union (EU)-based companies only import minerals from conflict-free sources. If companies import minerals from conflict regions, the law requires them to report where the minerals were mined, the location of processing and trade, and the taxes and fees that were paid.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Conflict, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
13. Russia’s Coercive Diplomacy: Why Did the Kremlin Mass Its Forces Near Ukraine This Spring?
- Author:
- Rob Lee
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- During March and April 2021, the Russian military conducted a large-scale buildup in its regions bordering Ukraine, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Scores of videos appeared on TikTok, Telegram, Twitter, and other social media sites showing Russian military equipment, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, and air defense systems, moving toward or appearing in the vicinity of Ukraine’s borders. The United States Department of Defense’s spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that the Russian buildup was even larger than during the peak of the fighting in 2014. Ukrainian officials estimated that the Russian military buildup would reach a total of 120,000 Russian troops with more than fifty-six battalion tactical groups (BTG). United States defense officials gave a lower estimate that 48 BTGs had moved into the border area and 80,000 Russian troops were in Crimea or elsewhere near Ukraine’s borders. To put this in perspective, the Russian military has approximately 850,000-900,000 servicemembers in total, and 168 constant readiness BTGs, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. If these estimates were accurate, the Russian military massed roughly 10-15% of its total manpower and approximately one third of its BTGs near Ukraine’s borders. In response to the buildup, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and President Joe Biden all called their Russian counterparts to discuss the situation. U.S. European Command (EUCOM) raised its alert status to its highest level. The buildup also coincided with an increase in fighting along the line of contact, with at least 36 Ukrainian servicemen killed thus far in 2021. The movement of Russian forces led to intense speculation about Russia’s intentions, including fears of a large-scale ground invasion. However, U.S. intelligence indicated that a large-scale ground invasion was unlikely because of a lack of prepositioned spare parts, field hospitals, ammunition, and other logistics necessary for such an operation. Likewise, EUCOM commander General Tod Wolters said on April 15 that there was a “low to medium” risk of a Russian ground invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks. On April 22, after the end of a large-scale exercise at the Opuk training area in Crimea, which included an amphibious landing, a helicopter air assault operation with two companies, and a multi-battalion airborne operation with more than two thousand paratroopers and sixty vehicles parachuted from forty Il-76MD transport aircraft, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the winter verification tests for the Western and Southern Military Districts had been a success and the troops would return to their permanent bases. However, he indicated that equipment from Central Military District’s 41st Combined Arms Army, which included BM-27 Uragan multiple launch rocket systems and Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems and other heavy equipment, would remain at the Pogonovo training area in Voronezh near Ukraine’s border until the Zapad 2021 strategic exercise in September. Furthermore, Shoigu did not state clearly whether all of the equipment and units deployed near Ukraine’s borders outside of Crimea would also return to their bases, nor how those units were employed during the snap inspection. Two weeks after Shoigu’s announcement, U.S. defense officials said that Russia had removed only “a few thousand” troops and that there were approximately 80,000 servicemen near Ukraine’s borders, despite Shoigu’s order for most of those units to return to their permanent bases by May 1. Thus Russia can still escalate rapidly in Ukraine in the future, though the immediate threat of a serious escalation of fighting in the Donbas appears to have passed with Shoigu’s announcement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America
14. Turkey’s Soft Power in the Balkans Reaching its Limits
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- With the EU putting the Western Balkan countries in an undefined waiting room, there was more room for maneuver for non-EU players. Turkey among others used this space to broaden its influence in the Balkans from politics to the economy, from culture to military cooperation, albeit from a very low starting point. The bilateral relations with all countries of the region are rather good, President Erdogan enjoys the recognition he is often lacking in other parts of the world. While the pandemic further harmed the EU’s image, it was mostly China and Russia who could fill the void with their own vaccines. Lacking its own vaccine so far, Turkey was much less visible. However, in the long-run, Turkey is not interested in an EU-Turkey confrontation over the Western Balkans, but that these countries join the EU. Through this, Turkey would increase the number of allies in a bloc where friends have become few.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, and Balkans
15. Tangled Threats: Integrating U.S. Strategies toward China and North Korea
- Author:
- Jacob Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- China and North Korea pose intertwined challenges for U.S. and allied policy. The Korean Peninsula constitutes just one area among many in U.S.-China relations. Meanwhile, issues on the peninsula remain central to the future stability and security of Northeast Asia and implicate many broader questions about regional and global order. Dealing with China and North Korea as an interlocking pair requires integrated policies that balance the risks and rewards of various possible approaches. This policy brief explains how to develop such policies and why they are the best option for the current regional landscape. North Korea plays several roles in China’s foreign policy. These include diverting geopolitical attention away from China, providing Beijing with an opportunity to cooperate with other states, creating a point of leverage for China to extract concessions on separate issues, and acting as a flashpoint with the potential for a regional war that directly affects China’s security. At any given time, some roles will be more pronounced than others, but each of them is always present to some degree. Any integrated U.S. strategy toward the pair will have to account for a volatile geopolitical landscape in Northeast Asia. Major trends include closer ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, deteriorating U.S.-China relations, and South Korea’s desire, especially under the government of President Moon Jae-in, to engage North Korea while balancing ties with China and the United States. The United States should employ a strategy toward China and North Korea that blends calibrated pressure and results-oriented engagement. The goal of this strategy should be problem-management rather than problem-solving. Washington should implement this approach across four areas: shaping U.S.-China relations regarding the Korean Peninsula; engaging North Korea on political and security issues; promoting stable deterrence in the region; and coordinating a shared inter-Korean and foreign policy with South Korea. Key recommendations for the United States include acknowledging that major breakthroughs are unlikely with either China or North Korea; proposing four-party nuclear and peace talks with South Korea, North Korea, China, and the United States; and standing up a Nuclear Planning Group that includes Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo to bolster deterrence and stem nuclear proliferation pressures.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
16. State-Centric Approach to Resolving the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon: What Prospects?
- Author:
- Francis Tazoacha
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute, a think–thank of Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation, Simbock, Yaoundé, Cameroon, hosted a webinar on January 26, 2021 on the theme: “Can the Anglophone Crisis be Solved Through a State-Centric Approach?” Hosted in partnership with the National Endowment for Democracy based in Washington DC, the webinar sought to know if the ongoing conflict in North West and South West Cameroon can be resolved through a state–centric approach. Bringing together about 68 participants, the January 2021 webinar sought to provide a platform for knowledge sharing and dialogue on the anglophone conflict and brainstorming to see if the state alone can resolve the conflict without the involvement of other stakeholders. The meeting sought to address a widely recognized need for the government of Cameroon to ensure greater involvement of civil society organizations, regional bodies, the United Nations, the African Union, Nation States and international mediators in the sustainable resolution of the conflict. For the past four years, the socio-political climate of the Anglophone regions of Cameroon has been very volatile. The long-standing grievances among the Anglophone population in the North West and South West Regions of Cameroon concerning marginalisation particularly in the educational and legal systems by the Francophone-dominated government led to widespread protests in October 2016.1 The conflict escalated from a peaceful demonstration that was met with a heavy crackdown from the government security forces in 2017. As a result, the situation morphed into an armed conflict with increasing support by the population in the Anglophone regions to seek independence from Cameroun – French Cameroon – as an independent “Republic of Ambazonia.” Since 2017, the conflict has continued unabated without any party seeming to surrender and thus end the war. Despite attempts from the national and international communities to intervene and resolve this destructive conflict, it has nevertheless, resulted in an impasse.2 The government of Cameroon opted for a military strategy from the very beginning of the peaceful protest that quickly changed into an armed conflict. Some pundits attribute this escalation to November 30, 2017 when President Biya, upon his return from Abidjan, Ivory Coast – after attending the 5th African Union-European Union Summit – declared to pressmen at the Yaoundé Nsimalen International Airport that he would put an end to the series of killings of forces of law. He also said he would order in general and the massacres around Mamfe in the South West Region, at the time all claimed to have been perpetrated by “Anglophone separatists.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Conflict, Nation-State, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
17. Identity and Nation-Building in Ukraine: Reconciliation of Identities from a Conflict Prevention Perspective
- Author:
- Nina Henke
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- In less than 20 years after gaining its independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has faced several events, which have shaped the process of nation-building. The Euromaidan, the annexation of Crimea and the armed conflict with Russia have intensified the ‘us–them’ line of self-identification of the “Ukrainians” versus the “Others”. Ongoing “Ukrainisation” is spreading insecurity among minority groups and endangers possibilities to establish a cohesive Ukrainian society with a shared sense of belonging. In the context of a multicultural Ukrainian space and the international commitments of the State to protect and promote rights of its national, ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities, adopting an ethnocentric approach to the nation-building of the country is a conflict-prone factor. By examining and discussing identities in the perspective of the ongoing nation-building process in Ukraine, this research paper aims to identify the potential of the State and individuals to find mechanisms and grounds for reconciliation and integration. This is approached through a series of in-depth interviews and a complex analysis of current political guidelines on education, language and decommunisation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, State Building, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
18. India’s Networking Response to the Chinese Threat
- Author:
- Rajesh Basrur
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- India has experienced rising tensions with China in recent years, as demonstrated by two border crises in 2017 and 2020-21. The second event saw the death of some 20 Indian troops, and at least 4 Chinese soldiers, in hand-to-hand combat – the first fatalities in nearly half a century of periodic border face-offs. New Delhi’s policy response has spanned both internal and external balancing. The former has involved augmenting India’s capacity to engage in limited combat of the type that nuclear-armed states have occasionally fought, as did the Soviet Union and China in 1969 and India and Pakistan in 1999. The Indian military has bolstered its border by deploying combat troops, cruise missiles, and advanced combat aircraft. However, China has done much the same, putting pressure on India to upscale its military capabilities. Simultaneously, India has tried to reduce its dependence on the Chinese economy, a more complicated task. Despite a 10 percent decline in bilateral trade owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and border tensions, China was India’s largest trading partner ($77.7 billion) in 2020. The Narendra Modi government sharply cut Chinese investment when the 2020 border confrontation in Ladakh broke out, expelling major Chinese companies like TikTok, WeChat, and UC Browser. Despite these measures, India’s ability to shut China out of its economy is limited. The Indian market depends heavily on Chinese electronic components (70 percent in value terms), pharmaceutical ingredients (70 percent), and consumer durables (45 percent).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
19. India’s Options in a Contested Environment: Constraints and Prospects
- Author:
- Prakash Gopal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The past year has witnessed tumultuous and unforeseen changes in the global geopolitical landscape due to the pandemic. While India struggles to contain its devastating second wave, it is simultaneously confronted with a significant national security challenge from across the disputed Himalayan border with China. A skirmish along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that started in May 2020 escalated rapidly into a full-blown crisis, with clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, causing casualties on both sides. After multiple rounds of talks, the crisis remains unresolved and has starkly exposed India’s lack of credible deterrence that could either deny or punish China’s belligerence across the unsettled border. In response to the border crisis, the Indian government promoted and contributed to the rapid coalescence of the quadrilateral security dialogue (Quad)—a loose coalition of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Notable milestones in the Quad’s accelerated development include the addition of Australia in the Malabar series of naval exercises and several high-level meetings of officials from the four countries, the highest-profile of which being the first leaders’ summit in March 2021. The assumption that India’s sudden moves to consolidate the Quad were driven primarily by Chinese actions along the LAC may be debated. Nevertheless, if that is the case, it follows that India views its renewed efforts in coalition-building as part of a solution to its China problem. Though the Quad may be useful in tackling security threats in the larger Indo-Pacific region, in the near term, it is unlikely to meaningfully contribute to bolstering India’s ability to deter China along land borders or in the maritime domain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Geopolitics, Borders, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, and India
20. Pivoting to African Conflict Prevention? An Analysis of Continental and Regional Early Warning Systems
- Author:
- Amandine Gnanguênon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Early warning systems (EWS) are at the heart of conflict prevention strategies, particularly as a component of operational prevention. EWS support decision-makers with timely information, analysis and response options. Although the first generation of EWS have been around since the 1970s and 1980s, they did not come to prominence until the 1990s. In the aftermath of the war trauma in Somalia and the Mano River region (Liberia and Sierra Leone) and the 1994 Rwanda genocide, African EWS – in particular those of the Organisation of African Unity, its successor, the African Union (AU), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – were developed to address threats to human security. These EWS have served as a strong foundation for early warning and early action (EWEA) in the continent. Many lessons have been learned in particular from West Africa’s experience, namely from the ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network (ECOWARN), launched in 2003. ECOWARN has the capability to reform institutions from within the organisation and take grassroots perspectives into account, positioning it as the most advanced regional EWEA system in Africa. Creating the AU in 2002 marked a shift from non-intervention to non-indifference at the continental level. The African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) was an opportunity for African states to display strong political will to develop conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms, by establishing the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) as one of the APSA’s five components. Over the years, multiple reinforcements have provided African institutions and member states with human, logistical and financial capacities to monitor, analyse and develop tailored and timely responses and policy options to address security challenges. Yet the EWEA gap, at both continental (CEWS) and regional (ECOWARN) levels, remains substantial and affects the full operationalisation of the prevention agenda. Why have political decision-makers not implemented those preventive tools adequately? How can closer relationships between regional and continental EWS in Africa bridge the EWEA gap? To answer these questions, this Conflict Series Brief investigates the challenges and opportunities of cooperation between ECOWARN, the most sophisticated African regional EWEA system, and CEWS, a continental hub for data collection and analysis. It begins by analysing the impact of a lack of clear and systematic collaboration between regional and continental organisations on the development of the overall African EWS. While challenges remain in the institutional division of labour between the AU and ECOWAS, there has been progress in designing their EWS and implementing data collection and analysis. The second part of this Brief argues that the persistent EWEA gap lies in three main challenges on which CEWS and ECOWARN have focused their efforts: the lack of regular interaction between early warning (EW) officials and decision-makers, the unpredictability of conflict dynamics and the political dimensions of conflict responses. The Brief concludes by presenting some lessons learned for Africa’s prevention agenda.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Reform, Conflict, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
21. Mitigating the risk of a China–India conflict
- Author:
- Arzan Tarapore
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- More than a year has passed since Chinese troops began to occupy previously Indian-controlled territory on their disputed border in Ladakh. The crisis has cooled and settled into a stalemate. This report warns that it could escalate again, and flare into a conflict with region-wide implications. The report assesses the risk of conflict by analysing its likelihood and consequences. A possible war would be costly for both India and China. But a possible war could also risk stirring Indian distrust of its new partners, especially in the Quad – Australia, Japan, and the United States. The report outlines some conditions under which a war would disrupt or dampen those developing partnerships. The report concludes by offering a framework for policymakers to shape India’s expectations and the strategic environment before and during a possible war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
22. A Scoping Study of CSVR's Work with Gender and Gender-Based Violence
- Author:
- Steven Rebello
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- This report highlights CSVR's work with gender and gender-based violence (GBV). It briefly highlights international best practices in terms of GBV prevention as well as CSVR research, advocacy, clinical, community and organisational interventions related to gender and GBV. Themes identified through focus group discussions with staff also highlight the perceived strengths and challenges associated with CSVR's gender-related work. The report concludes with recommendations that staff viewed as having value for both internal and external audiences.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa
23. Youth Inclusion in Socio-Economic and Livelihood Programmes: Potential for Fostering Social Cohesion and Violence Prevention in East and Southern Africa
- Author:
- Steven Rebello
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- In collaboration with the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS), Kenya, CSVR has been conducting research on the role of public employment and livelihood support programmes in fostering greater youth social and economic inclusion as well as violence prevention. By reviewing literature, select policies and programmes, this report highlights some of the key opportunities and challenges related to youth social and economic inclusion in Southern and East Africa.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Youth, Violence, and Social Cohesion
- Political Geography:
- Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa
24. Governing Parameters: Will the New Governments in Israel and Iran Affect the Ongoing Tensions Between Them?
- Author:
- Rania Makram
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Israel and Iran are witnessing significant political changes that affected the ruling elites. The developments came in the wake of early legislative elections held in Israel in March leading to the formation of a new coalition government headed by Naftali Benett, leader of the right-wing party Yamina. In Iran, presidential elections held on June 18, were won by hardline chief justice Ebrahim Raisi. The internal political dynamics in Tel Aviv and Tehran cast a shadow on the whole political landscape in both countries, and are projected to have an impact on the trajectory of the non-traditional conflict between the two sides, which escalated over the past few months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
25. Conflict and Crisis in South Sudan’s Equatoria
- Author:
- Alan Boswell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- South Sudan’s civil war expanded into Equatoria, the country’s southernmost region, in 2016, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee into neighboring Uganda in what has been called Africa’s largest refugee exodus since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Equatoria is now the last major hot spot in the civil war. If lasting peace is to come to South Sudan, writes Alan Boswell, it will require a peace effort that more fully reckons with the long-held grievances of Equatorians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
26. Enhancing U.S.-China Strategic Stability in an Era of Strategic Competition
- Author:
- Patricia M. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- As strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, preventing a destabilizing arms race and lowering the risk of military, especially nuclear, confrontation is critical. The essays in this volume—based on a series of workshops convened by USIP’s Asia Center in late 2020—highlight both the striking differences and the commonalities between U.S. and Chinese assessments of the root causes of instability and the drivers of conflict in the nuclear, conventional missile and missile defense, space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence realms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Peace, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
27. Handbook on the Prevention and Resolution of Self-Determination Conflicts
- Author:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The Handbook on the Prevention and Resolution of Self-Determination Conflicts is the latest product of a long and fruitful collaboration between the Mission of Liechtenstein to the United Nations, New York, and the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University to assess the relationship of self-determination to conflict. The Handbook includes four case studies: Aceh, Bougainville, Mindanao, and Northern Ireland, in addition to setting out guidelines specifically aimed at those working to prevent and resolve self-determination conflicts. The handbook was conceived chiefly as the result of two meetings on self-determination held jointly by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination and the Liechtenstein Mission to the UN: “Models of Self-Governance as Tools to Promote Peace and Stability in Europe,” held in March 2016, in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein, and “Self-Determination in Conflict Prevention and Resolution,” held in December 2018, in Princeton, New Jersey, U.S.A. In these meetings, participants discussed the relationship between self-determination and conflict, as well as ways that self-determination conflicts may be prevented and resolved. These discussions drew on the tensions and links between self-determination, minority rights, autonomy and self-governance, and mediation, all of which are key elements of the handbook.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Governance, Self Determination, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
28. The Post-COVID-19 Trajectory for Algeria, Morocco and the Western Sahara
- Author:
- Michaël Tanchum
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As Algeria and Morocco enter 2021, the bilateral relationship stands at a crossroads in which the status quo is no longer tenable. The COVID-19 pandemic and Morocco’s spate of diplomatic successes during 2020, culminating with the US’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara in December, have altered the long-standing, geopolitical dynamics of the Western Maghreb. Algeria now faces the critical decision of whether and how to attempt to offset Morocco’s rising power. The enduring détente between Algeria and Morocco had been characterised by limited coordination against shared threats such as terrorism and a contained competition in the Western Sahara. Since 1991, the Algerian-backed Polisario Front, which seeks to establish an independent Sahrawi state in the Western Sahara, abandoned its armed struggle in favour of working through the framework of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Algeria, Morocco, and Sahara
29. Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey
- Author:
- Flavio Fusco
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Building on emerging debates on the need to develop de-escalation mechanisms for the Middle East, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), with support from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, launched a one-year research and outreach project entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. Connected to the research, an expert survey targeting European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese experts and practitioners was conducted on key themes, principles and approaches associated with a potential new security architecture for the region. The results of the survey – first published in an edited book volume jointly published by IAI and FEPS in November 2020 – are analysed below, complete with tables and infographics on key themes associated with the research project and the search for new, inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America
30. Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way
- Author:
- Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- There is a growing bipartisan consensus in Washington on a tighter embrace of Taiwan, which may soon become a stronger implied US commitment to go to war in the event of a Chinese invasion. Taiwan matters to US security and the regional order, and the United States should continue to make clear that aggression is unacceptable. But those advocating a stronger US security commitment exaggerate the strategic consequences of a successful Chinese invasion. The stakes are not so high as to warrant an unqualified US pledge to go to war. American decision-makers, like their forebears confronting the seeming threat of communism in Indochina, may be trapping themselves into an unnecessarily stark conception of the consequences of a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It would be irresponsible for the United States to leave itself no option in the event of Chinese aggression other than war. But nor should Washington abandon Taiwan. There is a prudent middle way: the United States should act as armourer, but not guarantor. It should help prepare Taiwan to defend itself, to raise costs against aggression, and develop means of punishing China with non-military tools.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
31. An evidence review of violence prevention in South Africa
- Author:
- Matodzi Amisi and Sara N Naicker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
- Abstract:
- This policy brief presents findings from an evidence review of violence prevention interventions implemented in South Africa. The review draws on an evidence map published in 2019,1 and additional papers since then. It includes evidence generated through qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The review summarises the available evidence, with an assessment of quality, and perhaps most importantly it highlights the contextual factors that impact success. The review was guided by the question: ‘How and in what context do interventions impact perpetration and victimisation; and how can violence prevention interventions be implemented at scale?’ The approach taken to answer this question is similar to a narrative review. The objective was not to aggregate results from the studies but to summarise the evidence. Narrative review typically involves the selection, chronicling and ordering of evidence to produce an account of the evidence. This allowed us to include both qualitative and quantitative studies, a range of interventions, and to be interpretive. The review was carried out in four phases (Chart 1). Each paper or report was read in full and data extracted. In addition, an assessment of the quality of evidence presented in each paper or report was undertaken. A standardised tool rated each study on its conceptualisation, research question, sample size, context, control of confounding variable, etc.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Gender Based Violence, Violence, Sexual Violence, and Victims
- Political Geography:
- Africa
32. Is It a Nuke?: Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation
- Author:
- James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Ambiguity about whether a weapon is nuclear-armed prior to its launch is an underappreciated, serious, and growing danger. Rising geopolitical tensions and the decay of arms control are exacerbating the risk that such pre-launch warhead ambiguity could lead to nuclear use in a crisis or conflict. Recent developments in technology—as well as potential future advances, such as the development of ambiguous intercontinental missiles—further add to the danger. A first step toward reducing these risks is to enhance awareness among decisionmakers of the causes and potential consequences of ambiguity. Unilateral and cooperative risk-mitigation measures could further reduce the danger of escalation, including in conflicts between the United States and Russia or the United States and China.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and United States of America
33. Gulf Security: The Arab Gulf States Have No Good Options
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout may rewrite the security as well as the political and economic map of the Middle East. The crisis will probably color Gulf attitudes towards the region’s major external players: the US, China, and Russia. Yet the Gulf States are likely to discover that their ability to shape the region’s map has significantly diminished.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
34. COVID-19 and Peace: Preparedness for the post-pandemic recovery
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace
- Abstract:
- The journey out of this global recession will be long and arduous. However two factors may assist countries along this path. The first is high levels of Positive Peace, guaranteeing effective institutions, social cohesion and transparent, representative governments. The second is favourable economic conditions before the onset of the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Health, Global Recession, Violence, Economic Policy, Institutions, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35. Reducing Russia-NATO Tensions: Codes for Unplanned Encounters at Sea
- Author:
- Liselotte Odgaard and Sune Lund
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- This report first analyzes the use of CUES in the South China Sea, which is the region they initially were designed for as an instrument to prevent unwanted escalation. In what sense have CUES in the South China Sea set a precedent for reassurance measures in other regions? Second, we discuss whether CUES could be useful to lower tension levels between Russia and NATO in their ongoing conflicts over spheres of interest, strategic space, and appropriate deterrence measures in maritime Europe. The analysis draws on the first-hand experiences of personnel engaged in implementing the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES). This allows us to go beyond rhetorical announcements of intention and understand how de-escalation instruments are used at the level of implementation and whether they have any effect. Third, we conclude by discussing the caveats to and advantages of adopting CUES in the Euro-Atlantic area and how they should be designed to take the specific strategic context of this area into account.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and United States of America
36. The Influence of Diplomacy on Controversies: A Comparative Study Between Diplomatic Mediation and Armed Conflict
- Author:
- Cícero Ricci Cavini
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- International Security developed after the World War II, under the aspect of state protection. Traditional security currents have developed their theories in a Cold War environment, thus, there are epistemological elements of Rationalism and Positivism (Barrinha 2013; Lasmar 2017). The goal of this study is to observe the influence of diplomacy on international controversies, analyze real situations where diplomacy influenced the mediation choice and the armed conflict choice, and finally, deepen the knowledge of the consequences of war and mediation. The article has its theoretical framework on Post-Structuralism, characterized by Lasmar (2017) by the conditioning of the human being as meaning and attributor of the facts (social construction). In the International Security sphere, Post-Structuralism must nominate the threat or the protection as also the means for this. Therefore, it can expose the hidden intentions in the act of political construction (including political speech). The authors and researchers Christer Jönsson and Karin Aggestam question the preference of the states for mediation or war, and, given that, we intend to contribute with analysis under the diplomatic prism. Thus, we can align the revisited theory to the diplomatic actions, collaborating with the international security system.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Global Focus
37. Sino-US Kashmir Policy: Analyzing The Bilateral Approach
- Author:
- Sumeera Imran and Lubna Abid Ali
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Sino-Indian stand-off in Galwan has revived world attention to the dispute in Kashmir. Indian revocation of Article 370 and Article 35-A propped up diverse responses from the international community. China condemned Indian abrogation and the US offered to mediate on Kashmir. Trump’s offer of mediation opened up a pandora box of strong opposition in Indian Lok Sabha. Resolute criticism unleashed on Modi for compromising on Indian national security objectives and territorial integrity. Reflecting the urgency and complications involved in conflict resolution, the propensity of nuclear confrontation in South Asia remains high in Kashmir. US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has declared Human Rights in Kashmir as integral part of his electoral agenda. The US State Department has declared no change in its historic Kashmir policy, while China has resented Indian unilateral change in the region’s status. Great powers’ involvement in regional conflicts has been fluid, fluctuating with the change in their national security interests. Broad contours of national security objectives have shaped Sino-US Kashmir policy in the past. Employing qualitative research methodology and theoretical perspective of complex interdependence, the article reviews Sino-US traditional policy roles in conflict resolution on Kashmir. How has the US and Chinese Kashmir policy evolved over the years? What impact does the US and Chinese Kashmir policy has on regional stability? The article argues that great powers’ involvement has inflicted more injury than cure, exacerbating regional tensions. Great powers’ alignment along opposite poles has increased India-Pakistan bilateral hostilities on Kashmir. Sino-US insistence on Indo-Pakistan bilateral approach for conflict resolution rather than the UN framework has created the impasse on Kashmir.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- China, Kashmir, and United States of America
38. Protests, Not Geopolitics, Will Shape the Middle East in the New Decade
- Author:
- Rabah Arezki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- However unsurmountable geopolitical crises may seem today, it will be domestic protests that determine the social and economic landscape in the Middle East in the coming years. The Middle East has been plunged into turmoil. The killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani by the United States on 3 January 2020 created a tense military and political situation in the region. In response, Tehran said it would abandon the 2015 accord under which it agreed to restrictions on its nuclear program and fired rockets at bases housing the US military in Iraq. Washington has sent more troops to the region and imposed new economic sanctions on Iran. However, further escalation seems to have been avoided—at least so far.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Geopolitics, Protests, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
39. The Middle East Accords: An Arab Perspective
- Author:
- Imad K. Harb
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- The recent agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Sudan will not help the cause of regional peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and United Arab Emirates
40. The Middle East Accords: an American Perspective
- Author:
- Edward Marks
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- While the recent accords with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Sudan moves Israel further along the path of regional integration and diplomatic normalization, the deal does nothing for Israel’s other existential threat — the Palestinians living in Israel proper, the West Bank, and Gaza. Nevertheless, it is a big deal. It is all part of the evolving Middle East where Arab support for the Palestinians has been melting for years. For decades, many Arab states were united in their hostility toward Israel and support for the Palestinian cause, even though in some cases that backing was largely rhetorical. But change has been under way for decades, beginning with the Egyptian and Jordanian formal recognition of Israel and then in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative (API). That Saudi Arabian initiative called for normalizing relations between the Arab world and Israel, in exchange for a full withdrawal by Israel from the occupied territories (including the West Bank, Gaza, the Golan Heights, and Lebanon), a “just settlement” of the Palestinian refugee problem based on UN Resolution 242, and the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Integration, Peace, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
41. Korea versus Korea: Conventional Military Balance and the Path to Disarmament
- Author:
- Charles Knight and Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Varied incremental steps that embody and signal the accumulating commitment to a minimally acceptable common political future for Korea are key to this process. Progressive reduction of cross-border invasion threats through mutual confidence building force restructuring will constitute a virtuous circle of reinforcement for a changed relationship. [Through the] accumulation of the sunk costs of iterative reciprocity North and South Korea will arrive at a point where the demonstrated commitment to smaller restructured military postures is sufficient to allow rapid progress toward a stable level and disposition of arms compatible with a new peaceful political relationship.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
42. THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PANDEMIC
- Author:
- Evan Perkoski
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Will the COVID-19 pandemic increase or decrease conflict around the globe? Across myriad blog posts and op-eds, a consensus appears to be emerging: in the short term, the global community may experience a pax epidemia, as Barry Posen refers to it, where “the odds of a war between major powers will go down, not up.” But the opposite may be true for intrastate conflict—e.g. civil wars and insurgencies—where conditions seem ripe for more turbulent subnational politics.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, War, Conflict, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
43. R2P Monitor, Issue 53, 15 September 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 53 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Mozambique, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
44. Peacekeeping and the Enforcement of Intergroup Cooperation, Evidence from Mali
- Author:
- William G. Nomikos
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- Despite the abundance of evidence that peacekeeping works, we know little about what actually makes peacekeepers effective. Recent work suggesting that local agendas are central to modern conflicts make this omission particularly problematic. The article demonstrates that the presence of peacekeepers makes individuals more optimistic about the risks of engagement and the likelihood that members of outgroups will reciprocate cooperation. I use data from a lab-in-the-field experiment conducted in Mali, a West African country with an active conflict managed by troops from France and the United Nations (UN), to show that UN peacekeepers increase the willingness of individuals to cooperate relative to control and French enforcers. Moreover, I find that UN peacekeepers are especially effective among those participants who hold other groups and institutions in low esteem as well as those who have more frequent contact with peacekeepers. Follow-up interviews and surveys suggest that perceptions of the UN as unbiased rather than other mechanisms account for its effectiveness.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
45. Four Conflict Prevention Opportunities for South Africa’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the years right after apartheid fell, South Africa was a leader in continental diplomacy, brokering peace accords and bolstering multilateral institutions. Its role subsequently diminished, but today it is well placed to make a positive difference in several trouble spots. What’s new? Midway through its term on the UN Security Council, and having just become chair of the African Union, the South African government led by Cyril Ramaphosa has a strong platform from which to reassert Pretoria’s continental leadership in efforts to mitigate Africa’s violent conflicts. Why does it matter? As Africa deals with more challenges to regional stability than it can readily handle, South Africa’s re-emergence as a leader in conflict prevention would be good for Pretoria, good for a continent that continues to prefer African solutions to African problems and good for the people of conflict-affected areas. What should be done? South Africa should enhance its focus on Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan, which lie at the intersection of national, AU and UN priorities. Pretoria should also redouble efforts to steer neighbouring Zimbabwe away from crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and Democratic Republic of Congo
46. Southern Thailand’s Peace Dialogue: Giving Substance to Form
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Talks to end the insurgency in Thailand’s southernmost provinces have repeatedly encountered obstacles, including the main rebel organisation’s abstention from the current round. With a new Thai official taking charge, and inviting that group to rejoin, both parties should drop objections that have hindered progress. What’s new? A peace dialogue process between the Thai government and Malay-Muslim separatists may be entering a new phase after stagnating for more than a year. A new Thai delegation chief has called for direct talks with the main insurgent group, Barisan Revolusi Nasional, which has rejected the existing dialogue. Why does it matter? Though the level of violence in Thailand’s deep south has declined over the years, recent attacks in Bangkok and Yala highlight the continuing threat. Meanwhile, civilians remain caught up in a protracted conflict that has claimed more than 7,000 lives since 2004. What should be done? The dialogue process needs a reboot, with Barisan Revolusi Nasional included. That group should prepare to engage constructively. Bangkok should overcome its aversion to international mediation and cease equating decentralisation with partition. The Thai government and Malaysia, the dialogue facilitator, should consider how to incorporate external mediation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia
47. The Price of Peace: Securing UN Financing for AU Peace Operations
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The African Union is best positioned to send peacekeepers to the continent’s various war zones. But it often lacks the funds available to the UN’s blue helmets. A compromise over co-financing peacekeeping missions would serve the conflict prevention goals of both institutions. What’s new? Attempts to reach agreement upon a UN Security Council resolution on using UN assessed contributions to co-finance African Union (AU) peace support operations have ended acrimoniously, damaging relations between the Council and the AU Peace and Security Council. Discussions are now on hold, offering the parties an opportunity to clarify positions. Why does it matter? Access to UN financing offers the hope of predictable and sustainable funding for vital AU peace operations, whose offensive mandates are often better suited to current conflict dynamics in Africa. An AU summit in February 2020 could determine if and how the proposal is pursued. What should be done? The UN and AU should pursue a compromise. It could involve agreeing to treat AU troop contributions as in-kind payment, creating a joint mechanism for monitoring human rights compliance, and stipulating that a commander reporting to both institutions will lead co-financed missions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
48. Making Peace with Climate Adaptation
- Author:
- Louise Van Schaik, Camilla Born, Elizabeth Sellwood, and Sophie de Bruin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Climate change poses risks to poor and rich communities alike, although impacts on the availability and distribution of essential resources such as water, food, energy and land will differ. These changes, combined with other social, political and economic stresses and shocks, can increase tensions within and between states, which, if unmanaged, can lead to violence. Climate-related changes to transboundary waters, food security and trade patterns, sea levels, and Arctic ice, as well as the transition to a low-carbon economy, have profound geopolitical implications. Largescale climate-related migration may also affect the stability of states, and relations between states. Climate action itself may prove destabilizing: (mal)adaptation can disrupt economic and social relations, particularly if implemented without appropriate political economy analysis and risk assessments. In response to analyses linking climate change to security, peace and security actors increasingly realize that interventions to promote peace and stability are more likely to be effective if they incorporate such analyses. At the United Nations, member states have agreed to shift towards a “preventive” approach to conflict risks, grounded in sustainable development. The UN leadership is adjusting institutional structures to better understand and respond to climate-related security risks at all levels, including a newly established climate security mechanism in New York. Many regional intergovernmental institutions have also recognized the links between climate change, peace and security. Some, such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in East Africa and the European Union, have incorporated climate-related factors into their conflict early-warning mechanisms. We are only just beginning to understand the realities of adapting to unprecedented climate change, however. Climate-related factors will need to be incorporated systematically into political analysis, risk assessment, and early warning, accompanied by deeper integration of climate-security risk assessment into planning and political engagement in the field. Similarly, more consistent analysis of climate-related security risks must contribute to politically informed, conflict-sensitive adaptation strategies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Climate Change, International Political Economy, Peace, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
49. Turkey and Egypt: toward a necessary de-escalation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the recent escalation and the stark divide between their vision of their interests and roles, both Turkey and Egypt realise that a direct clash would be damaging for both of them. In fact, there are indications that both states are more pragmatic than their bellicose statements indicate.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt
50. A Thick Cloud in the US-Iran Climate
- Author:
- Ali Akbar Dareini
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Neither Iran nor the United States want a full-fledged military war but the Trump administration’s campaign of “maximum pressure” and Soleimani’s assassination mean the two foes remain on collision course.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Qassem Soleimani
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
51. The Emergence of Another African Conflict: Egypt, Ethiopia and Geopolitics of the Renaissance Dam
- Author:
- Mehari Taddele Maru
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Very few consider that despite the possibility of conflict or cooperation, such changes in the exploitation of the Nile River resources are due to changing relations and the need to address long-standing unfair and hegemonic approaches to trans-boundary resource sharing.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt
52. The U.S.-Iran Showdown: Clashing Strategic Universes Amid a Changing Region
- Author:
- Ross Harrison
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and Iran are poised for a showdown. Understanding where we are today with this conflict and where we are likely to go in the future requires that we look at the conflicting strategic doctrines between the United States and Iran against a backdrop of a shifting Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
53. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability
- Author:
- Gerrit Kurtz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany
54. Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus
- Author:
- András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov, and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics – and Russia’s reactions to them – will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, European Union, Geopolitics, Protests, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
55. The New Secretary-General Report on Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace: Prevention Back on the Agenda
- Author:
- Paige Arthur, Céline Monnier, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the newly released secretary-general’s report on peacebuilding and sustaining peace contains, as usual, a wealth of examples of the steps that the United Nations (UN) system is taking to implement the sustaining peace resolutions. It also suggests a welcome and surprising finding: the conflict prevention agenda—once thought to be on life-support at the UN—has found new vigor. This briefing examines the new report, finding that it moves the prevention agenda forward in several key respects, from deepening political buy-in among member states and partners, to a greater embrace of conflict-sensitive approaches in the field. The briefing also identifies key opportunities for prevention to take root in the UN’s practice—including continued strengthening of expertise on prevention; deepening partnerships with the IFIs; leveraging links with violence reduction initiatives, especially relating to SDG16; focusing on area-based approaches to address multiple risks; and more action on humanitarian-development-peacebuilding nexus approaches.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peace, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
56. Operationalizing the Prevention Agenda: Three Recommendations for the Peacebuilding Architecture Review
- Author:
- Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Over the past 18 months, CIC has facilitated a series of discussions on the United Nations secretary-general’s agenda on preventing violent conflict. This options paper consolidates key recommendations for operationalizing the prevention agenda in light of the 2020 peacebuilding architecture review. In the paper, Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier present recommendations based on the consultations CIC has held across the UN system, as well as with national actors, to support the operationalization of the 2016 sustaining peace resolutions—with a specific focus on upstream prevention that is nationally led and sovereignty supporting. The paper examines options to increase national demand for prevention approaches, opportunities to build and consolidate the UN system’s expertise on prevention, and options to increase cross-pillar approaches, which are critical to the success of prevention initiatives.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
57. The interstate conflict potential of the information domain
- Author:
- Dumitru Minzarari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic has not only triggered a crisis in public health and safety that engendered a significant economic fallout. The pandemic has also triggered an infodemic, one that sets the context for a significant spike in anti-NATO and anti-Western propaganda. Unless countermeasures are taken, the already deteriorating public opinion vis-a-vis the Alliance can be expected to worsen. Viewed individually, these two pandemic's outcomes have not critically threatened the Alliance; however, their combined effect could become a formidable challenge for NATO. Despite the measures taken, the pandemic is likely to continue exacerbating the frustrations among member states, further fraying the Alliance's unity. This, arguably, is the most immediate and concerning challenge facing NATO today.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, NATO, Public Health, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
58. Catalyst or crisis? COVID-19 and European Security
- Author:
- Claudia Major
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 crisis is teaching European countries that a pandemic can destabilize societies, the economy and political institutions to the same extent that military or hybrid threats do. However, while the pandemic's impact on European security seems massive, it is difficult to isolate the COVID-19 factor: what is uniquely pandemic-driven, and what is the result of other elements, such as the lack of US leadership, is not always easy to determine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Institutions, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
59. Taiwan Flashpoint: What Australia Can Do to Stop the Coming Taiwan Crisis
- Author:
- Brendan Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australian diplomacy could ease rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait, if Australian policymakers rediscovered an appetite for involvement in the flashpoint. Tensions between Taiwan and China are rising, driven in part by an increasingly assertive government in Beijing, growing Taiwanese estrangement from the Chinese mainland, and deteriorating US–China relations. If key regional governments fail to help de-escalate tensions, the consequences are likely to be serious. Rather than continue the debate about Australia’s position on its ANZUS obligations should the United States invoke the treaty in a Taiwan conflict, Australia should work with other regional powers to advocate for more robust risk avoidance and crisis management mechanisms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Multilateralism, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, Australia, and United States of America
60. The Role of the Youth in Mitigating the Armed Conflict in Anglophone Cameroon
- Author:
- Tazoacha Francis
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The youths of any nation can be both a productive or destructive force depending on which side of the spectrum that society optimizes. They are the epitome of hope and the future of a nation and deserve to be encouraged and streamlined towards galvanizing their role in nation-building and sustainable development through an integrated approach. Youth would play very important roles in the advancement of their societies if they are given the least opportunity to do so and could ruin a society if they are alienated. Policymakers around the world have not yet attuned themselves to this compelling rhetoric which demands investing increasing attention to the youth as a way of engineering their role in shaping their societies. Almost half of the world’s population has been estimated to fall into the youth bracket. And with unemployment figures remaining extremely high, frustrating young people represent a ticking time bomb in the developing world [1]. Saddled with this reality, we can see the young generation playing a major role in the on-going conflict in the South West and North West regions of Cameroon. This is because the productive side of the spectrum has not been properly harnessed compelling them to pick up arms to fight and against the state of Cameroon to facilitate the restoration of the statehood of Southern Cameroon.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Youth, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Cameroon
61. Incremental inclusivity in peace processes: Key lessons learnt
- Author:
- Andreas Schädel and Veronique Dudouet
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief provides evidence-based lessons learnt and recommendations on the timing, sequencing and modalities of inclusion of nonsignatory armed groups and civil society actors in peace processes. It aims to inform a strategic understanding on how to design and implement peace processes that are effective in bringing about an inclusive political, economic and social transformation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Peace, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
62. Challenges and opportunities for conflict resolution with Salafi jihadi armed groups
- Author:
- Veronique Dudouet and Karin Göldner-Ebenthal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief highlights recommendations for evidence-based policy making on pathways to conflict de-escalation with Salafi jihadi armed groups. It proposes a more nuanced public discussion of the topic. This brief draws mainly on the research report “Dialogue with Salafi jihadi armed groups: Challenges and opportunities for conflict de-escalation” which concludes a two-year research project based on case studies in Somalia, Syria and Mali.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, Syria, Somalia, and Mali
63. Ecosystem Mapping: The State of Play and the Path to Creating a Community of Practice
- Author:
- Branka Panic
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- How can cutting-edge approaches to data—like advanced data science methods, quantitative methods, predictive analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and natural language processing (NLP)—help inform peacebuilding and conflict prevention? In 2019 and 2020, the Center on International Cooperation convened researchers and practitioners for a series of workshops on Data for Peace and Security highlighting practical applications of these new approaches in the peacebuilding field. Now, we are continuing this work through a new initiative on Data for Peacebuilding and Prevention, which will include a series of monthly Data for Peace Dialogues. This report, launched at the first virtual dialogue, lays out the state of the field and provides recommendations on how best to grow the field effectively. The report maps and analyzes the existing global ecosystem in the field of data for peace and prevention. It highlights multiple examples of relevant initiatives throughout the world utilizing big data, data visualization, AI, ML, image recognition, and social media listening. It also discusses technical challenges impacting all actors, such as the lack of data or lack of high-quality data, lack of access due to security reasons, and data colonialism, as well as the ethical considerations brought on by exponential technologies (security, accessibility, transparency, safety, trust, bias, and justice), and some specific challenges for data-driven approaches to peacebuilding.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Fragile States, Crisis Management, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
64. El islam en Rusia: desafíos a la seguridad y respuestas estratégicas (Islam in Russia: Security Challenges and Strategic Responses)
- Author:
- María José Pérez del Pozo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- El islam forma parte de la historia y de la cultura rusas desde el siglo VII, colaborando activamente en el proceso de construcción del Estado, desarrollando relaciones con otros grupos sociales, con los que ha compartido espacios, historia y políticas de asimilación. Sin embargo, la comunidad musulmana ha tenido un papel asimétrico frente a otros grupos étnicos y culturales del Estado, ocupando, durante largos periodos históricos, una posición periférica en asuntos políticos, militares y económicos. A lo largo de los años 90, la religión se convirtió en un elemento de reivindicación nacionalista contra el poder federal, incentivado por la entrada de un islam transnacional radical importado de los países de Oriente Medio de predominio sunita. Las dos guerras chechenas y la posterior gestión de la zona por parte de Moscú han favorecido la aplicación de un nuevo esquema de análisis basado en la etnicidad-seguridad, que generaliza una interpretación negativa del islam en Rusia. La división de las instituciones religiosas musulmanas tampoco ha facilitado la interlocución interétnica ni la relación con el Kremlin. El estudio de las estrategias rusas frente al desafío del islam se ha orientado tradicionalmente al análisis de la dimensión de seguridad, enfocándose en las respuestas militares de los órganos de seguridad del Estado ruso, ya que, la propia disfuncionalidad del sistema político y la ausencia de políticas basadas en al respeto a los derechos individuales ha impedido la aparición de otras iniciativas que consideren la convivencia interétnica e interreligiosa en un Estado declarado laico. Sin embargo, podemos estudiar también las iniciativas rusas aplicando el enfoque del estudio de la política exterior de los Estados para analizar la utilización de la diversidad religiosa en la obtención de determinados objetivos de política exterior. En este sentido, el trabajo aborda la función de los grupos militares procedentes del Cáucaso, integrados en las fuerzas federales rusas, dentro del conflicto sirio. Finalmente, los programas vinculados a la Prevención del Extremismo Violento (PEV) en el Cáucaso Norte, con sus limitaciones, muestran también un cierto cambio en la implementación y gestión de nuevos métodos para frenar la insurgencia regional.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, and Transnational Actors
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and North Caucasus
65. TIME TO STEP UP EU MEDIATION?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Institute of Peace (EIP)
- Abstract:
- The need and scope for conflict resolution and mediation is going up. The numbers of people affected by violence and conflict is increasing. The world is disfigured by prolonged, internationalised civil wars and growing civil unrest. Great power politics are resurgent, the conventions regulating states’ behaviour are fraying, and international law and human rights are being eroded. Profound demographic and climatic changes, the emergence of new technologies and of threats are changing the global landscape in ways that should bring humanity together but too often are exploited for commercial and political gain, driving insecurity and a sense of injustice. The EU has an enormous role to play in this context. It is a powerful global actor pursuing multiple objectives on the world stage. It is committed to human rights, gender equity, sustainable development and a rules based global order, and to supporting others that are taking action, whether inter- governmental and regional bodies such as the UN and AU, or civil society including at the very local level. But the EU also recognises, as the High Representative has put it, the need to learn “to use the language of power”, to deploy its capabilities, whether political, security, economic or regulatory, more strategically to shape reality, address the agents and drivers of violence, and secure peace. So what should the EU’s role in mediation be in this context? The review of the EU’s concept on mediation provides an excellent opportunity to generate debate and to define the parameters of the future of EU mediation frameworks. This study provides a snapshot of the views within the Brussels diplomatic and policy community. Even within this relatively confined universe, there is a very broad diversity of opinions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Human Rights, Peacekeeping, European Union, Sustainability, Mediation, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Europe
66. Conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula: The current state and prospects
- Author:
- Yong-Sup Han
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- At the end of 2017, the Korean Peninsula reached the brink of a nuclear war, as the US president Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchanged words of nuclear threats each other. A tug of war as to whose nuclear button is bigger and stronger exacerbated the nuclear crisis. However, the South Korean President Moon Jae-in intervened to resolve the crisis by taking advantage of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. In doing so, President Moon intended to pursue denuclearisation and peace-building on the Korean Peninsula at the same time. North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un responded positively to the South Korean call to hold the inter-Korean summit and the Trump-Kim summit. In order to end the Korean war and promote peace-building on the Korean Peninsula including termination of hostile acts on inter-Korean relations, the two Koreas adopted the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, the September 19th Pyongyang Joint Declaration and the Inter-Korean Military Agreement at their summit in 2018. The Military Agreement is aimed at reducing tension and building trust between the two Koreas through conventional arms control, while the North Korean nuclear issue is being resolved through the US-DPRK summit. The September 19th Military Agreement is a modest but remarkable success in arms control history when compared with a long-term stalemate or even retreat in the contemporary international arms control arena. Indeed, arms control is at its lowest point in history, so dim are its prospects. Nevertheless, heated debates are taking place, both at home inside South Korea and abroad, over the legitimacy and rationality of the Sept. 19th Military Agreement. With little progress on the denuclearisation issue at the Kim-Trump summit and no sign of easing economic sanctions on Pyongyang, North Korea has test-fired short-range missiles ten times to exert pressure on the United States, undermining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Against this backdrop, this policy brief intends to analyse the true meaning of the September 19 Military Agreement between the two Koreas, to identify its problems and policy implications in order to draw up supplementary measures to implement it successfully. Furthermore, the paper will draw some implications for the relationship between progress on North Korea’s denuclearisation issue and further conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
67. Turkey-Greece Confrontation and Georgia: Threats and Challenges
- Author:
- Zurab Batiashvili
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Relations between Turkey and Greece have never been easy but since the summer of 2020, tensions between them rose sharply. If during June and July of 2020 the parties were arguing over the conversion of the Hagia Sophia Museum into a mosque, in August-September the center of controversy shifted to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. Many unresolved issues have accumulated over the decades in this "space" - the problem of Cyprus, the problem of the separation of maritime economic zones (hence, the natural resources located there), the issue of 12 islands and airspace, the matter of ownership of uninhabited small islands and more. In addition, recently, one can observe increasingly aggressive rhetoric in both countries which creates the danger of small incidents escalating into a major military confrontation that, in turn, createsseriousthreats and challenges to regionalsecurity (including Georgia).
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Economics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Caucasus, Greece, and Georgia
68. China-Venezuela Relations in the Twenty-First Century: From Overconfidence to Uncertainty
- Author:
- Matt Ferchen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The outsized ambitions and scale of the China-Venezuela political and financial relationship in the twenty-first century have meant that its failures and disappointments have been correspondingly large. This report explores how the nations came to be involved, how each side has responded to Venezuela’s extended economic and political crisis, and the implications for the future of the bilateral relationship and for China’s aspirations to be a leader and agent of international development.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Development, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South America, and Venezuela
69. Pathways for Post-Peace Development in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Khyber Farahi and Scott Guggenheim
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Even if the warring parties in Afghanistan manage to secure a still-elusive agreement on resolving the current conflict, significant economic challenges remain for the country, which will require continued assistance and support for core government functions. This report, based on an examination of Afghanistan’s recent development performance, provides a framework for how the Afghan government and its donor partners can more effectively deliver equitable development going forward.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
70. Looking for Trouble: Sources of Violent Conflict in Central Asia
- Author:
- Gavin Helf
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This report offers a road map for understanding the most likely sources of violent conflict in the post-Soviet nations of Central Asia—ethno-nationalism and nativism, Islam and secularism, water resources and climate change, and labor migration and economic conflict. The analysis draws from emerging trends in the region and identifies the ways in which Central Asia’s geography and cultural place in the world interact with those trends. It suggests that the policy goals of the United States, Russia, and China in the region may be more compatible than is often assumed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Climate Change, Migration, Economy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, and United States of America
71. Violence Prevention through Election Observation
- Author:
- Larry Garber
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- For many years, election-related violence has posed a serious threat to the integrity of electoral processes worldwide. To prevent or minimize such violence, the international community has often relied upon election observation missions, which incorporate an extended on-the-ground presence and proactive mediation by international and domestic actors. This report discusses the challenge observer missions face in confronting election violence, and suggests how preventive efforts can be enhanced through improved, multi-mandate observation practices.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Elections, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
72. China’s Periphery Diplomacy: Implications for Peace and Security in Asia
- Author:
- Jacob Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- China’s foreign policy is expanding in scope and depth and now reaches across the globe. Yet its diplomatic efforts focus on its own complex neighborhood. To advance these interests, China’s leaders practice an interlocking set of foreign affairs activities they refer to as “periphery diplomacy.” This report details the main tools Beijing uses to engage the countries with which it shares borders, assesses the campaign’s effectiveness, and lays out the implications for peace and security in Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Diplomacy, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
73. China’s Response to Sudan’s Political Transition
- Author:
- Laura Barber
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Sudan's decades-long economic relationship with China has almost always been dominated by oil. Yet this relationship has changed significantly in the past decade—first with the loss of oil reserves when South Sudan became an independent nation in 2011, and more recently due to the ouster of longtime ally President Omar al-Bashir. This report, based on interviews with policy officials, diplomats, industry and security experts, and others, examines China’s evolving commercial and political interests in this vital nation in the Horn of Africa.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Sudan, and Asia
74. Service Delivery in Taliban-Influenced Areas of Afghanistan
- Author:
- Scott Smith
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2018 and 2019, USIP partnered with the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), a Kabul-based research and policy organization, in an effort to understand how the Taliban provide education, health, and other services to people who live in areas where they are the dominant power. Based on a series of studies conducted by AAN in five districts across the country, the report also examines the Taliban's motivations as a governing entity and their implications for a potential peace settlement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Taliban, Peace, and Services
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
75. Understanding Russia’s Interest in Conflict Zones
- Author:
- Paul M. Carter Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Under Vladimir Putin, Russia’s global ambitions have steadily increased, including in unstable areas of the Middle East, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. For the most part, Moscow’s activities in these and other areas run counter to Western interests and undermine efforts to mitigate conflict through broad-based, transparent processes. This report outlines the factors that appear to be motivating the Kremlin’s conflict-zone interventions and places them within the larger context of Russian foreign policy interests.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria
76. India’s Kashmir Conundrum: Before and After the Abrogation of Article 370
- Author:
- Sameer P. Lalwani and Gillian Gayner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On August 5, 2019, the government of India revoked the constitutional autonomy of its Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir. This report—based on field interviews, new data collection, and extensive research— focuses on the revitalized insurgency and mass uprising between 2013 and 2019, explains how the Kashmir conflict evolved to a point that contributed to India’s extraordinary political gambit, and lays out both New Delhi’s strategy and the challenges the government faces going forward.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, Insurgency, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Kashmir
77. Toward a Kashmir Endgame? How India and Pakistan Could Negotiate a Lasting Solution
- Author:
- Happymon Jacob
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Kashmir has once again emerged as a major flashpoint between South Asia’s nuclear-armed rivals, India and Pakistan. The Indian government’s August 2019 withdrawal of statehood status for the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region intensified disaffection among separatists and the Kashmiri public. This report explores the strategies India and Pakistan have adopted toward Kashmir in the year since August 2019, and examines a potential road map for resolving the Kashmir conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, India, and Kashmir
78. US-Iranian Relations Remain on Track for Escalation
- Author:
- Elliot Hentov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Iran is currently facing an incredibly unlucky alignment of pressure sources that are interrelated and will force the regime to engage in risky or experimental behavior, most likely in 2020. The COVID-19 epidemic simply exacerbates the combined challenges of a regime squeezed by an international sanctions network and a restive population reaching a breaking point with economic hardship. A continued acceptance of the status quo is untenable; thus, the regime will likely begin to undertake various initiatives in the coming months, more likely military than diplomatic in nature, that could force the United States to ease the isolation of the country.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Culture, COVID-19, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
79. Negotiating from the Margins: Women’s Participation in Colombian Peace Processes (1982–2016)
- Author:
- Nina Chaparro and Margarita Martínez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Dejusticia
- Abstract:
- In this book, we offer an examination of and recommendations for women’s participation in Colombia’s peace processes, with an eye toward strengthening spaces for participation and, in doing so, ensuring that the peace accord is ultimately translated into long-term social pacts that are inclusive and committed to justice and equity.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia
80. Italy and the Libyan Crisis: What Lessons for Foreign Policy?
- Author:
- Camellia Mahjoubi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Since 2011 the Libyan crisis has never stopped posing questions to the Italian political class and public opinion, showing all its relevance for the definition of the external action – either at the multilateral or bilateral level – of our country. From political mediation to the use of force, from the terrorist threat to the current COVID-19 crisis, from the management of irregular migration to the issue of human rights, Libya continues to represent an important test for Italy’s foreign policy. In recent months, the Libyan conflict has undergone important changes. International mediation under the lead of the United Nations and with the involvement of the regional actors seems to have lost steam and a new intensification of military operations has produced rapid changes in the balance of power on the ground. What have been Italy’s responses to the crisis? What are the objectives and the tools put in place? What lessons can we learn about the strengths and weaknesses of our foreign policy?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, Italy, and North America
81. Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait
- Author:
- Mark Stokes, Yang Kuang-shun, and Eric Lee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Taiwan’s (Republic of China, ROC) defense readiness can be viewed from both strategic and operational perspectives. In our report, readiness is measured by both (1) the degree to which Taiwan’s government and civil society are prepared to counter coercion by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and (2) the degree to which the ROC armed forces can carry out its mission. Given the increasing likelihood of CCP use of force against Taiwan in the foreseeable future, it is in the interests of the United States and the ROC governments to improve overall defense readiness. This report evaluates the threat environment Taiwan faces and details its strategic and operational readiness, as well as the utility of ad hoc coalitions. In addition, the report highlights future opportunities for U.S. policymakers to strengthen the United States and Taiwan’s readiness in pursuit of the shared goal of peace and stability in a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Strategic Stability, Coalition, and Readiness
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
82. Advancing Inclusive Mediation Through the Lens of Leadership
- Author:
- Fleur Heyworth and Catherine Turner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The number of civil wars tripled in the decade to 2015. In this context, mediation is widely recognised as a critical tool for promoting the peaceful settlement of disputes, and for conflict prevention and resolution. The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, has made mediation a strategic priority, stating in his latest address to the Security Council that “innovative thinking on mediation is no longer an option, it is a necessity.” i In addition, regional organisations including the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the European Union, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) are also increasing their mediation capacity. It is also increasingly recognised that those who lead high-level mediation processes need to be more representative of diverse stakeholders who bring different perspectives and experiences. Increasing the diversity of mediators is important, because the experience of the mediator will determine how they assess the relative priority of issues in the peace process, and how they are able to connect across tracks to lead inclusive processes. The barriers to inclusion of people with diverse backgrounds are highlighted by the lack of representation of women: this specific field is recognised as one of the most ‘stark and difficult to address gaps’ in achieving gender parity.ii As stated by Mossarat Qadeem, the exclusion of women is not about culture, it is about power.iii A gendered lens helps us to identify the processes, biases and barriers which contribute to the marginalisation and exclusion not just of women, but of all stakeholders who should be at the peace table.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Leadership, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
83. Positive Peace Report 2019: Analysing the factors that sustain peace
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace
- Abstract:
- This report is a continuation of the prior work from the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), and includes updated results for the annual Positive Peace Index (PPI). It also provides analysis of countries that are improving or deteriorating in Positive Peace, as well as the developmental factors that improve or deteriorate with changes in Positive Peace. The research incorporates systems thinking to understand how nations operate and societies develop over time. The introductory section of the report describes the fundamental concepts associated with systems thinking. In doing so, IEP provides a new interdependent framework and holistic approach to understanding peace and development.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Peace Studies, Peacekeeping, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
84. Negotiating Toward a Denuclearization-Peace Roadmap on the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Duyeon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- This report examines pathways toward denuclearization and peace on the Korean peninsula by offering a conceptual framework and principles for a political roadmap informed by a technical understanding of nuclear issues, to guide Washington as it navigates a range of options in negotiations until 2020. Recognizing the inevitable linkages between denuclearization and the peace process and the effects the two issues have on each other, this report proposes and emphasizes the need for a comprehensive denuclearization-peace roadmap. The task and key challenge for the United States is to configure the right tradeoffs to create incentives for North Korea to take denuclearization steps without giving away too many vital rewards too soon, to maintain negotiating leverage. It is important to prevent Pyongyang from pocketing early gains and walking away from the process without making significant progress on denuclearization. Value-based metrics should be used in determining appropriate bargains.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Negotiation, Peace, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and North Korea
85. Political Breakdown in South Sudan: United Nations and a New Challenge to Human Security (2014 - 2018)
- Author:
- Daniel Mendes Aguiar Santos
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- This article aims to examine the context of the political breakdown in South Sudan, highlighting its effects on human security in the country, and to analyze the response of the United Nations, with a focus on civilian protection, in the period 2014-2018. In this light, the theoretical hypothesis was that “within the framework of a United Nations peace mission, the implementation of a strategy for the protection of civilians corroborates human security in the region of crisis and/or conflict.” In this effort, after this introduction, the methodological considerations about the investigation are presented, followed by a theoretical and conceptual frame that fits the analysis. Subsequently, is the political breakdown in South Sudan, highlighting its effects on human security and, following the central question, the United Nations response focused on the protection of civilians. Finally, we present the conclusive aspects, illuminated by the theoretical hypothesis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
86. The Indo-Pak Rivalry and the Kashmir Issue: A Historical Analysis in the Security Context of the South Asia
- Author:
- Syed Shahbaz Hussain, Ghulam Mustafa, Muhammad Imran, and Adnan Nawaz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The Kashmir issue is a primary source of resentment between India and Pakistan. It is considered the oldest issue on the schedule of the Security Council yet to be resolved. This divisive issue remained unsolved and has become the nuclear flashpoint. The peace of the South Asian region is severely contingent upon the peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute. It is not only the pivot of bitterness in the bilateral relation of India and Pakistan, it also a continuous threat to the regional peace in South Asia. This study critically assesses and evaluated the issue in the perspective of historical facts and current context regarding Kashmir. Chronological data presented and describe that the Kashmir issue has deteriorated the fragile security of South Asian region and remained a continuous threat of nuclear escalation in the region. Kashmir issue has severe implications for populace of Kashmir as well as for the region
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Human Rights, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir
87. President Salomé Zourabichvili of Georgia
- Author:
- Salomé Zourabichvili
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum program features an address, Georgia - land of attraction and opportunities: despite conflicts a regional player with Euro-Atlantic drive, by President Salome Zourabichvili of Georgia followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, European Union, Displacement, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- New York, Europe, and Georgia
88. Fundamental Design Principles of Confidence-Building Defense
- Author:
- Carl Conetta and Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- A selection of slides prepared for seminars held in Holland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Belarus in 1994. The seminars were organized and co-sponsored by the Study Group on Alternative Security Policy (SAS) and the Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA). Twenty-five years later the principles of Confidence-Building Defense remain relevant to the efforts of North and South Korea to construct a “peace regime” after many decades of enmity and military standoff.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, National Security, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, Hungary, Czech Republic, Holland, and Belarus
89. China’s Territorial Claim at South China Sea: A Strategic Competition with USA and its Implications
- Author:
- Kanwal Hayat and Rehana Saeed Hashmi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- China claims South China Sea as its sovereign domain where it possesses the right to intervene militarily and economically. However, USA considers South China Sea as a common global passage where rule of law and freedom of navigation should prevail.These diverging viewpoints coexist in a wobbly peace environment where both US and China want their own version of international law to be applied and have occasionally resorted to minor armed conflicts over this issue. Every state claiming authority over South China Sea is willing to use coercion in order to get what they want, however, the extent of how far they are willing to go is not clear. This is resulting in a show of gunboat diplomacy involving maritime force of influential states that strives to manipulate the policy makers of the relevant nations (Costlow, 2012). The paper will focus on the situation in the South China Sea. South China Sea is not only claimed by China but various other Asian nations. Does this territorial strife possess the power to turn the region into a war zone? Being one of the most active trade routes in the world having complicated geography and the diverging regional and international interests makes it very sensitive area. China being the emerging economic giant gives competition to the USA in many spheres. Although America has no territorial claim in the South China Sea, it has strategic and economic interests. Where China wants a complete hegemonic control of the area, USA wants to find a way where free unchecked trade could be the future for all.Accompanied with numerous other South Asian nations claiming various portions of the region, a constant tension exists in the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Oceans
90. Preventing an Israeli-Iran War
- Author:
- Alon Ben-Meir
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- The EU is in a unique position to prevent the outbreak of a war between Israel and Iran that could engulf the Middle East in a war that no one can win.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America
91. Highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict
- Author:
- Helen Young, Elizabeth Stites, and Anastasia Marshak
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- This is the third in a series of three briefing papers that form part of the Mind the Gap: Bridging the Research, Policy, and Practice Divide to Enhance Livelihood Resilience in Conflict Settings project. The first two briefing papers accompany regional case-study reports on Chad, South Sudan and the Sudan, and on Uganda that challenge many long-held assumptions about nutrition and livelihoods in countries struggling to recover from conflict, violence and fragility. FAO reviewed these regional case-studies on resilience and vulnerability at a two-day high-level workshop in Rome in November 2018. This brief summarizes the report highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict, including insights from the workshop participants and some implications for policies, programs, and future research.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Sudan, North Africa, Chad, and South Sudan
92. Comparative analysis of livelihood recovery in the post-conflict periods in Karamoja and northern Uganda
- Author:
- Elizabeth Stites, Frank Muhereza, and Claire McGillem
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- This is the second in a series of three briefing papers that form part of the Mind the Gap: Bridging the Research, Policy, and Practice Divide to Enhance Livelihood Resilience in Conflict Settings project. This briefing paper accompanies a report that examines the parallel but separate trajectories of peace-building, recovery, and transformation over post-conflict periods in northern (Acholi and Lango subregions) and northeastern (Karamoja) Uganda. Parallels between these areas include a history of marginalization from the central state, underdevelopment and endemic poverty, and vulnerability to climate change and crossborder incursions. We argue that throughout the post-conflict periods, the initial peace processes in both locations were largely top-down in nature, with little participation from the affected populations. While keeping in mind the key differences in these areas, we highlight the nature of recovery, the ongoing challenges, and the need for external actors to be cognizant of the continuing fragility as they design policies and interventions for these locations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Food Security, Conflict, and Pastoralism
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, and North Africa
93. Karamoja and Northern Uganda: Comparative analysis of livelihood recovery in the post-conflict periods
- Author:
- Elizabeth Stites, Frank Muhereza, and Claire McGillem
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the parallel but separate trajectories of peace-building, transformation, and livelihood recovery in northern (Acholi and Lango sub-regions) and northeastern (Karamoja sub-region) Uganda over the past 15 years. While keeping in mind the key differences in these areas, we highlight the similarities in the nature of recovery, the continuing challenges and the need for external actors to keep in mind the ongoing tensions and vulnerability that could undermine the tenuous peace. Challenges to recovery and long-term stability are similar across the two locations. Both northern Uganda and Karamoja continue to struggle with food insecurity and malnutrition, despite the massive influx of development funds, improved security and expansion of markets. In northern Uganda, the conflict continues to influence household livelihoods. Households that have a member who experienced war crimes are consistently worse off. These continuing problems with food security and nutrition call into question many assumptions about recovery and development. In particular, the idea that peace will bring a natural bounce in economic and household well-being does not appear to hold up in these cases.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Uganda
94. The Extraordinary Gamble: How the Yugoslav Tribunal’s Indictment of Slobodan Milošević During the Kosovo War Affected Peace Efforts
- Author:
- Jacqueline R. McAllister
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 24 May 1994, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY or Yugoslav Tribunal) made history by becoming the first international court to indict a sitting head of state: Yugoslav President Slobodan Milošević. Since Milošević’s rise to power roughly a decade before, forces either directly or indirectly under his control had unleashed a reign of terror first in Croatia, then in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and finally in Kosovo. Indicting Milošević was no small feat: he did everything in his power to cover his tracks. Moreover, in order to secure crucial evidence (e.g., intelligence and satellite imagery linking Serb forces to crime sites) and the support necessary to actually put Milošević on trial, the ICTY required the backing of Western powers, which—until the Kosovo War in 1999—viewed Milošević as a vital, yet unsavory guarantor of peace in the region. Reactions to the indictment were mixed. While the Yugoslav Tribunal’s supporters heralded the indictment as a legal triumph that brought Milošević to his knees, its critics emphasized that, at best, the indictment was irrelevant and, at worst, an extraordinary gamble that had the potential to thwart an end to hostilities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, and Ethnic Cleansing
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Yugoslavia, and Central Europe
95. Oral History And The Rwandan Genocide
- Author:
- Erin Jessee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Erin Jessee is Lord Kelvin Adam Smith Research Fellow in History at the University of Glasgow. She has over a decade of experience conducting oral historical and ethnographic fieldwork in confict-afected settings, particularly in Rwanda, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Uganda. She is the author of Negotiating Genocide in Rwanda: Te Politics of History, which was published in Palgrave Macmillan’s Studies in Oral History series in 2017. She has also published several articles in notable journals such as Memory Studies, Conflict and Society, History in Africa, Oral History Review, and Forensic Science International, among others.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Genocide, International Cooperation, International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Rwanda and Global Focus
96. Unsettled Memory: Genocide Memorial Sites In Rwanda
- Author:
- Amanda F. Grzyb
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- In March 2012, the errant roots of a nearby tree broke through one of the mass graves at the top of the Bisesero memorial, a remote site in the western province where Rwandans have laid to rest approximately 50,000 victims of the 1994 genocide. With material support from district leaders, genocide survivors from the Twumba sector labored for weeks to remove approximately 10,000 bodies from the water-damaged tomb. They put the remains in large wooden coffins on the floor beneath thousands of skulls and bones stacked on the shelves of a corrugated metal shed where they had been awaiting incorporation into the unfinished memorial exhibit for more than a decade. Attempts to repair the tomb caused additional structural damage and eventually the remaining bodies also had to be removed, again by local survivors.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Sectarian violence, Humanitarian Intervention, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Rwanda
97. 2020-2021 UN Security Council Elections and the Responsibility to Protect
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Today, 7 June 2019, the United Nations General Assembly elected Estonia, Niger, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia and Viet Nam to the UN Security Council for the period of 2020-2021. With their election, 6 of the 15 members of the Council in 2020 will be “Friends of the Responsibility to Protect” – having appointed an R2P Focal Point and/or joined the Group of Friends of R2P in New York and Geneva.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Human Rights, Sovereignty, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), UN Security Council, and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam, Estonia, United Nations, Tunisia, Niger, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
98. R2P Monitor, Issue 45, 15 May 2019
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 45 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Nigeria, Burundi, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Mali, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Human Rights, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus
99. End U.S. Military Support for the Saudi-Led War in Yemen
- Author:
- Enea Gjoza and Benjamin H. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The Yemeni Civil War is in its fourth year, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and their allies are not close to a victory over the Houthi rebels.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Military Spending, Military Intervention, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa
100. Time to Change Course on the UN’s Lebanon Policy
- Author:
- Assaf Orion
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Serious change is required to avoid decisions that accommodate Hezbollah’s ends, ways, and means, and a vital first step is to look at current policy mechanics with a clear eye. With this month marking the thirteenth anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the end of the 2006 Lebanon war, the council will soon hold its yearly debates about renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon. Contrasting the Secretary General’s latest report on 1701 with thirteen years of lessons learned reveals a clear pattern: the victory of consciously false hopes over hard experience, particularly when viewed from Israel’s perspective. Breaking this pattern will require substantial changes to the force’s size, mission, and conduct.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, United Nations, Governance, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and United States of America