Publication Year: within 3 Years - CIAO Search Results

9201. Greening the US Sovereign Bond Guarantee Program: A Proposal to Boost Climate-Directed Sovereign Finance in Developing Countries

Author:: Scott Morris, Rowan Rockafellow, and Alan Cameron
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Sovereign bond guarantees (SBGs) are an effective but underutilized instrument available to the US government in support of developing country partners. By protecting bond purchasers in the event of a foreign issuer country’s default, SBGs substantially reduce borrowing costs for developing country governments. In this CGD policy paper, we estimate the costs and benefits of historical US sovereign bond guarantees in order to model the use of SBGs for climate finance purposes. We demonstrate that the US government-provided SBG has the effect of conferring the US government’s cost of borrowing on the partner government. On that basis, it represents substantial savings for these countries. Based on this analysis, we propose a $20 billion “Green” SBG program aimed at financing climate change mitigation efforts in 28 emerging market economies. We estimate that the US government could support $20 billion in bond issuances through a subsidy outlay of $2 billion, resulting in a 22 percent reduction in borrowing cost of the target countries, which represents $4 billion in budgetary saving for their governments. We propose that the subsidy appropriations in support of the guarantees be retained and recycled within the Green SBG program, which would substantially improve the financial leverage of the program over time. We also suggest that the program could be used for climate adaptation purposes by targeting a different group of developing countries
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Finance, Sustainability, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9202. Country Platforms and Delivery of Global Public Goods

Author:: Daouda Sembene, Nancy Lee, and Mark Plant
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper discusses three potential requirements for country platforms to facilitate effective delivery of GPGs. We propose that existing country platforms be repurposed to coordinate the contribution of domestic and external stakeholders to GPG delivery efforts at the country level. For this proposed approach to be successful, an explicit link must be introduced between country-level efforts and global initiatives to provide GPGs. There is also merit in setting up country and global coordination mechanisms, with relevant agencies assigned to operate them both at the national and international levels. Using relevant country platforms, we suggest that international financial institutions (IFIs) such as the IMF and multilateral development banks (MDBs) be mandated with helping developing countries meet the financing needs associated with the provision of GPGs. In addition, technical support from the IFIs should be put on the table to improve the effectiveness of developing countries’ contribution to GPG delivery. In this regard, MDBs can and must play a central role in developing capacities in these countries as part of their own contribution to GPG delivery. At the same time, securing the contribution of civil society and the private sector to GPG delivery efforts is essential given the magnitude of potential financing needs.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Finance, Multilateralism, IMF, and Public Goods
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9203. IDB COVID-19 Response Projects and Gender Integration

Author:: Shelby Bourgault, Kelsey Ross, and Megan O'Donnell
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper aims to determine the extent to which gender was considered in the Inter-American Development Bank’s (IDB) operations aimed at responding to the COVID pandemic and associated economic crisis. Using keywords to identify COVID response projects, we found 264 projects approved between March 1, 2020, and July 31, 2021 for our analysis. We found that 135 projects (51 percent) had publicly available project documents for analysis, and of these, 32 projects (24 percent) included gender-focused indicators in their results frameworks. Most gender indicators focus on women as participants of social protection programs or as owners of small- and medium-sized enterprises. Our recommendations to the IDB include increasing transparency by publishing more project documents and ensuring gender indicators are included in projects’ results frameworks across sectors. This project builds on previous analysis of gender integration in COVID response projects at the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and African Development Bank.
Topic:: Pandemic, COVID-19, Social Groups, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9204. Prioritizing Public Spending on Health in Lower-Income Countries: The Role of the Global Financing Facility for Women, Children and Adolescents

Author:: Janeen Madan Keller, Rachel Silverman, Julia Kaufman, and Amanda Glassman
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The Global Financing Facility (GFF), launched in 2015, is a partnership backed by a multi-donor World Bank trust fund that aims to “prioritize and scale-up evidence-driven investments to improve reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health and nutrition (RMNCAH-N) interventions” in low- and lower middle-income countries. A major component of the GFF’s operational model is centered around the investment case, described by the GFF as “a description of the changes that a country wants to see with regard to reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health (RMNCAH) and a prioritized set of investments required to achieve these results.” Looking retrospectively at investment cases and associated ongoing World Bank operations, this paper aims to shed light on specific aspects of the GFF’s operating model, approach, theory of change, and results to date related to the “development of a costed and prioritized investment case,” and whether the investment case helps to prioritize public spending on health in the real world. The portfolio-wide findings suggest that the GFF delivers a clear value-add within the global health architecture by directing more funding to flow directly through governments via increased World Bank lending for RMNCAH-N (especially in the context of COVID-19-related service disruptions and fiscal contractions). The role of the investment case in aligning and prioritizing resources behind a consensus set of highest-value RMNCAH-N interventions within a specific funding envelope is less well documented in the public domain; GFF efforts to directly influence government RMNCAH-N spending decisions and their efficiency seem to occur primarily through follow-on resource mapping and expenditure tracking. The paper concludes with three recommendations for the GFF and its donors: (1) pursue a deliberate strategy for prioritization of RMNCAH-N services and products within the realistic budget constraint to advance evidence-based decisions on certain trade-offs; (2) increase transparency and public visibility into GFF-supported activities and funding, especially related to RMNCAH-N product procurement and overall resource tracking; and (3) explore incentives for increased donor co-financing within the framework of World Bank projects as a strategy to pool and channel more resources through government coffers.
Topic:: Health, Children, Women, Public Spending, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9205. Violence as A Form of Political Conduct: The Case of the Islamic State

Author:: Jülide Karakoç
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Following Hannah Arendt’s approach, which distinguishes power and violence and claims that violence appears when power is threatened or fails, this paper argues that the use of violence by Islamic State (IS) is a result of its inability to establish a stable power base in the Middle East. It argues, however, that violence has become a form of political conduct for this organisation, which challenges to Arendtian perspective rejecting any role violence plays in politics and has many repercussions in Middle Eastern societies and politics. This paper notes that local people feel hatred and rage against certain developments in the region, such as their countries’ colonial past, the Iraqi invasion and their failed administrations. Analysing how these reactions are directed in the form of violence by IS against some local groups, the paper examines further the regional consequences of the IS’ use of violence.
Topic:: Politics, Islamic State, Violence, and Hannah Arendt
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

9206. Inequality in Education Among Turkish Young Individuals, 1988-2020.

Author:: Nursel Aydıner Avşar and Bengi Yanık İlhan
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This paper studies the changes in education inequality in the youth population (15-29 age group) in Turkey using the Household Labour Force Survey data for the 1988-2020 period. The average year of schooling is calculated to investigate the changes in the level of educational attainment, and standard deviation in years of schooling and education Gini coefficient are calculated to examine how within-group education inequality changes over time. These statistics are calculated for young men and young women separately to also find out how gender inequality in educational attainment and education inequality changes over time. The findings of this study show that the average years of schooling increases for both young men and young women in Turkey while education inequality measured by the Gini coefficient decreases for both groups between 1988 and 2020. This seems to reflect the positive implications of the expansion in compulsory education for both average years of schooling and education inequality. Average years of schooling is higher for young men while education Gini is higher among young women despite the closing of the gender gap in both measures over time.
Topic:: Education, Inequality, Youth, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9207. Covid Döneminde Finansal Varlıklar Arasındaki Nedensellik Farklılaşması (Causality Differentiation Between Financial Assets During COVID Era)

Author:: Üyesi Hidayet Güneş
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Covid pandemisi her alanda olduğu gibi ekonomik düzende de eski düzenden farklılıkları içerisinde barındırmaktadır. Bundan dolayı yatırımcılar, finansal varlık seçiminde daha dikkatli ve seçici davranmak durumundadırlar. Yeni koşullara uyum sağlayan yatırımcıların getirilerini artırabilme uyum sağlayamayanların ise zorluklarla karşılaşabileceği bir dönem içerisinde bulunulmaktadır. Bu yüzden çalışma, Türkiye’deki çeşitli finansal varlıklar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin Covid döneminde farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığını belirleyebilmek için yapılmıştır. 29 Ocak 2018-10 Mart 2020 tarihleri arası Covid öncesi, 11 Mart 2020-22 Nisan 2022 tarihleri arası Covid dönemi olarak belirlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Toda-Yamamoto testi ile araştırılmıştır. Covid öncesi dönemde gösterge faiz oranının diğer tüm değişkenlerin nedeni olarak belirlenirken Covid döneminde bu durumun ortadan kalktığı tespit edilmiştir. Covid döneminde CDS primi ve Euro/TL kuru değişkenlerinin gösterge faiz oranının nedeni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca Covid döneminde döviz kurlarının çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi içerisine girdikleri belirlenmiştir. Son olarak Dolar/TL kurundan CDS primine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin hem Covid öncesi hem de Covid dönemlerinde aynı kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye’deki finansal piyasa ve varlıklar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi üzerinde Covid pandemisinin etkisinin olduğu sonucu ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bundan dolayı piyasa oyuncularının fonlarını yönetirken, ortaya çıkan yeni durumları göz önünde bulundurarak yatırımlarını gerçekleştirmeleri kendi fon getirileri açısından önem arz etmektedir.
Topic:: Economy, Currency, COVID-19, and Financial Assets
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

9208. Bölünmüş Toplumlarda Anayasa Yapımı: Güney Afrika Deneyimi (Constitution-Making Processes in Divided Societies: The South African Experience)

Author:: Sevtap Yokuş
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bölünmüş toplumlarda anayasa yapım süreçleri, demokratik anayasa bakımından çok daha büyük önem taşır. Anayasal düzenlemeler ve tercihler kadar anayasa yapım yöntemleri de demokratik anayasa açısından belirleyicidirler. Demokratik anayasa yapımı süreçleri, toplumun bütün kesimlerinin katılımına açık olarak yürütülür. Katılımcı anayasa yapım örneklerinden en orijinal ve en çarpıcı olanı, Güney Afrika Anayasası inşa sürecidir. Bu süreç, ayrımcı Apartheid rejiminden demokrasiye geçişi sağladı. Kurucu Meclis, Anayasa inşa sürecini güvenilir kılmak amacıyla, şeffaflık ve katılımcılık ilkelerini sürece hâkim kılmaya çalıştı. Güney Afrika anayasa yapım süreci, başarılı bir demokratikleşme örneğidir. Güney Afrika deneyimi, çatışma çözümünde anayasa yapım yönteminin ne denli belirleyici olduğunu göstermesi bakımından da önemlidir.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Constitution, Participation, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

9209. Role of Perceived Intergroup Difference on Stereotype Content

Author:: Büşra Alparslan
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: People tend to categorize others as ingroup or outgroup. Social psychology literature attributes this distinction to similarity; similar people are supposed to be ingroup and different people are supposed to be outgroup. Similarly, people’s attitudes, perceptions, and attributions towards others easily change depending on whether they are ingroup or outgroup. Moreover, studies investigating ethnic group relations showed that perceived intergroup difference is an important variable that influences stereotype content and other intercultural attitudes in the European context. This study measured the role of perceived intergroup differences towards three ethnic minorities (Circassian, Kurdish, and Armenian) by the Turkish participants on stereotype content. The study results showed that participants perceived ethnic minorities differently from one another in terms of perceived intergroup differences. The Turkish participants evaluated three ethnic groups as ‘significantly different from themselves and also from one another. Furthermore, there might be credence to the idea of perceived intergroup difference having an influence on stereotype content since the outgroup that is rated as the most similar (Circassian) was significantly rated higher on warmth and competence dimensions as compared to other outgroups
Topic:: Minorities, Ethnicity, Kurds, Stereotypes, Armenians, Circassians, and Social Categorization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9210. Türkiye’de Bölgelerarası Sosyo-Ekonomik Gelişmişlik Farklarının Azaltılmasına Yönelik Politikalar: Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesinin (GAP) İncelenmesi (Policies for Reducing Inter-Regional Disparities of Socio-Economic Development in Turkey: An Investigation of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP))

Author:: M. Kemal Aydın and Alptegin Albayraktaroğlu
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bir ülkedeki gelişmişlik düzeyinin ülke genelinde dengeli bir şekilde dağılması ve bölgeler arası farkın az olması önemlidir. Bunu gerçekleştirmek amacıyla hazırlanan bölgesel kalkınma planlarında, ülkeler bölgelere, bölgeler türlere ayrılmıştır. Bu bağlamda homojen, polarize ve plan bölge şeklinde üç farklı bölge türü vardır. Bölgesel kalkınma, bölgeler arası dengesizliklerin giderilmesi ve bölgede bulunan iktisadi ve toplumsal potansiyellerin faaliyete geçirilmesiyle refah düzeyinin yükseltilmesini ifade etmektedir. Türkiye’de özellikle 1950’li yıllardan itibaren bölgesel politikalar önem kazanmış ve ülkenin kalkınması için çok önemli bir politika olarak görülmüştür. Bu kapsamda ülkedeki bölgeler için birçok proje hayata geçirilmiştir. Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nin sahip olduğu kaynaklardan faydalanılması fikriyle, bütünleşik ve çok sektörlü bir kalkınma projesi olarak Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP), 6 Kasım 1989’da Resmî Gazete’de yayımlanan Kanun Hükmünde Kararname (KHK) ile başlatılmıştır. Bu proje 9 ili kapsamaktadır ve Cumhuriyet tarihinin en etkin şekilde uygulanan projesidir. Proje kapsamında master plan, bölge kalkınma planı, eylem planları ve kalkınma programları uygulanmaktadır. Günümüzde GAP bölgesindeki illerde başta tarım, enerji ve sanayi olmak üzere birçok sektör için iyileştirme süreçleri devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada 2000’li yıllardan itibaren GAP kapsamındaki gelişmeler resmi veriler üzerinden incelenmiştir. Ardından seçilen sektörlerdeki gelişmeler ele alınmıştır.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Economy, Domestic Policy, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9211. Anne Baba Eğitim Düzeylerine Göre Okul Öncesi Dönem Çocuklarının Sosyal-Duygusal Yeterliliği (Social-Emotional Competence of Pre-School Children by Their Parents' Educational Level)

Author:: Hülya Gülay Ogelman, Yüce Gülşah, and Ahmet Yüce
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bu araştırmanın amacı, anne baba eğitim düzeyine göre okul öncesi dönem çocuklarının sosyal-duygusal yeterliliğinin incelenmesidir. Araştırmada genel tarama modeli kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın örneklemini Manisa ili Soma İlçesi’nde okul öncesi eğitime devam eden 188 çocuk, 188 anne ve 188 baba oluşturmuştur. Araştırmada veri toplama araçları olarak Kişisel Bilgi Formu ve Okul Öncesi Çocuklar İçin Sosyal-Duygusal Beceriler ve Psikolojik Dayanıklılık Ölçeği (SDBPDÖ-Okul Öncesi) kullanılmıştır. Veri toplama araçları, her bir çocuk için okul öncesi öğretmenleri tarafından yaklaşık 7 aylık gözleme dayalı olarak doldurulmuştur. Normal dağılımla ilgili bulgulardan yola çıkarak parametrik olan Tek Yönlü Varyans Analizi (ANOVA) tekniği ile analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Gruplar arasındaki farklılıkların belirlenmesine ilişkin eğitim seviyeleri için post-hoc tekniklerinden Bonferroni uygulanmıştır. Araştırmanın bulgularına göre okul öncesi dönem çocuklarının duygu bilgisi/duygu ifadesi, empati, öz düzenleme, sosyal yetkinlik alt boyutlarının ve SDBPDÖOkul Öncesi düzeyinin, anne-babaların eğitim seviyesine göre istatistiksel olarak anlamlı farklılık gösterdiği görülmüştür. Bu sonuca göre okul öncesi dönem çocuğu olan anne-babaların eğitim seviyeleri, çocuklarının sosyal-duygusal yeterliliği ile ilişkilidir.
Topic:: Education, Children, Parenting, and Preschool
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9212. Governing the Global Commons: Challenges and Opportunities for US-Japan Cooperation

Author:: Kristi Govella, John Bradford, Kyoko Hatakeyama, Saadia M. Pekkanen, Setsuko Aoki, James Lewis, and Motohiro Tsuchiya
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The global commons—domains beyond the sovereign jurisdiction of any single state but to which all states have access—are essential to the stability and prosperity of the international order. In addition to the high seas, outer space, the atmosphere, and Antarctica, which are defined as global commons by international law, analysts have also suggested that other domains such as cyberspace may also qualify as potential commons. These domains provide essential public goods such as trade routes, transportation and communication networks, fish stocks, satellite imagery, global positioning, and e-commerce infrastructure that benefit countries around the world. To successfully manage the resources of the global commons and ensure open access to their spaces, effective governance structures must exist to accommodate and integrate the interests and responsibilities of state and non-state actors. Consequently, states have tried to come to agreements in each domain about how to enable broad access, avoid conflict, and enable cooperation. Over time, these discussions have resulted in the creation for each domain of a “regime,” a set of implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures around which actors’ expectations converge (see Box 1). These regimes can take shape in the form of international law, national law, local regulations, private standards, and institutional bodies. They differ dramatically in maturity and complexity: the governance regime of the oceans has developed over the course of centuries, while the rules and norms of cyberspace have only had a few decades to coalesce. However, all these regimes attempt to solve similar dilemmas surrounding shared access and resources.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Democracy, Economy, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: East Asia, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

9213. Breaking Barriers to Women’s Participation in Politics in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine

Author:: Daryna Dvornichenko
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: For Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, the long road to EU membership requires not only economic convergence and approximation of their laws with the EU acquis communautaire but also the adoption of EU fundamental values, including progress toward gender equality. In the context of their efforts to pursue reforms and to build democratic institutions, these countries have no choice but incorporate a gender lens into their political discourse and practice. However, their common underlying characteristics, as well as a similar level of external pressure from donors and international organizations, are not necessarily leading to similar results for their gender-related reform attempts, in particular when it comes women’s participation in politics. This paper examines the barriers that still inhibit women’s political participation in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. It explains the main roots of women’s underrepresentation, first looking at public attitudes in the three countries regarding the efficiency of women politicians and the male-dominated political environment. Based on interviews with women politicians in the three countries, the research focuses on the use of gender quotas for participation in elections at the national and local levels. It describes the path to introducing gender quotas and explores the factors that determine the limits of their effectiveness. The paper then looks at other instruments for mainstreaming gender-balanced policies and their enduring limitations. The most tangible positive results related to these reforms are the introduction of gender quotas in elections in all three countries, a shift to full proportional representation in the electoral system that resulted in a rapid increase in the proportion of women in parliament in Moldova, and the introduction of a rule mandating the replacement of elected women by other women in case of leaving their seat early in Georgia at the local and national level. Women politicians continue to face many gender-related challenges. Non-transparent recruitment in political parties, loopholes in legislation that allow parties to circumvent gender quotas, and the weakness and ineffectiveness formal institutions intended to mainstream gender equality are key obstacles for women in starting and developing a political career. At the societal level, much of the public still holds deep-seated gender stereotypes that act as barriers to women taking more active part in the political decision-making process. The numerous persistent factors that hamper women’s political participation prove that Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine still have much to do to create a level playing field for men and women in politics. The paper offers recommendations for domestic and external actors—including lawmakers, political parties, the media, and foreign donors—on possible ways to enhance women’s participation with policy approaches concerning female leadership and gender-balanced decision-making.
Topic:: Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

9214. NATO and Societal Resilience: All Hands on Deck in an Age of War

Author:: Edward Hunter Christie and Kristine Berzina
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Prior to 2022, NATO and the European Union were already moving toward more comprehensive approaches to resilience. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine heightens the need for such work, with a sharper focus on scenarios of armed attack. In view of decisions taken at NATO’s recent Madrid summit and the evolution of EU legislation, all alliance members will benefit from close liaison work and reciprocal briefings between relevant NATO and European Commission officials as well as through the NATO Resilience Committee and the European Critical Entities Resilience Group. Three new functions should be added to the NATO baseline requirements: payment systems, psychological defense, and continuity of data and infrastructure software. The forthcoming membership of Finland and Sweden will provide NATO with particularly valuable national best practices, notably in terms of coherence, robustness, quality of cooperation across government and society, and engagement with the population.
Topic:: NATO, Resilience, Society, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

9215. Building a Quad-South Korea Partnership for Climate Action

Author:: Kristi Govella
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Climate change is a pressing global problem that requires action at the local, national, and international levels. While most policy has logically focused on creating international pacts to address and mitigate climate change, interest in regional or minilateral cooperation among smaller groups of countries has also grown in recent years. When the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—more commonly known as the Quad—convened its first leader-level summit in March 2021, its member countries Australia, India, Japan, and the United States identified climate change as a priority for the grouping and for the Indo-Pacific. They established a Quad Climate Working Group to strengthen implementation of the Paris Agreement and to cooperate on climate mitigation, adaptation, resilience, technology, capacity building, and finance.1 Since then, the Quad has continued to expand its climate activities. In September 2021, the grouping added the formation of a green-shipping network and the establishment of a clean-hydrogen partnership to its goals.2 In May 2022, the four partners took the additional step of launching the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP).3 Why have the Quad countries decided to include climate change on their agenda? They share serious concerns about climate change, which poses a significant threat to themselves and to the Indo-Pacific as a whole. In recent years, climate change has risen in prominence on the domestic political agendas of the four Quad partners, and there are gains to be achieved through coordination and cooperation of their separate national efforts. At a time when many countries feel that international institutions simply are not working quickly or effectively enough, minilateral initiatives such as the Quad have gained appeal as a more flexible way to facilitate joint action.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Partnerships, Quad Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

9216. AI Startups and the Fight Against Mis/Disinformation Online: An Update

Author:: Anya Schiffrin, Hiba Beg, Pablo Eyzaguirre, Zachey Kliger, Tianyu Mao, Aditi Rukhaiyar, Kristen Saldarini, and Ojani Walthrust
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The events following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shown again the power of online mis/disinformation. As it continues to grow and spread, there are new and continuing attempts to address this problem. These include supply-side and demand-side fixes (including media-literacy programs, fact-checking and, in Europe, new regulations) but few of these have scaled. This paper looks at one kind of supply-side attempt to tackle the prevalence of online mis/disinformation: the market for tech-based solutions that use some form of artificial intelligence (AI) machine/deep learning for content moderation, media integrity, and verification. This paper presents the findings of interviews of 20 niche firms that use AI to identify online mis/disinformation, many of which were previously surveyed for a 2019 paper on the role of AI startups in the fight against disinformation. These companies did not release their revenue figures but it seems that the market for their services is smaller than many entrepreneurs had originally hoped, and that Google and Facebook are not relying on such firms for help in identifying online mis/disinformation. The cost of the services provided by these startups and the desire to keep things in-house and protect their activities from outside scrutiny are part of why the tech giants do not rely on small startups for help with screening online mis/disinformation. This may be why funding for these startups does not seem to have grown significantly and so more than half of them are now focusing on the business-to-business market, selling mis/disinformation mitigation services to, for example, insurance companies, large public entities, and governments, among others. There also appears to be a limited market for business-to-consumer solutions for detecting mis/disinformation. However, continuing advances in AI as well as forthcoming regulation by the European Union and the United Kingdom will continue to spur innovation, which may stimulate demand. University initiatives, academics, journalism organizations, and cybersecurity experts are all also trying to come up with ways to identify and control the spread of mis/disinformation. Ultimately, despite its advances, technology alone will not solve the online mis/disinformation problem. Giant social media platforms have few financial incentives to crack down on this—quite the opposite, in fact. To push social media platforms to act against online mis/disinformation and illegal speech, regulation must deftly address the issue while preserving freedom of expression. There is a further problem in the form of the political polarization that has intensified in the United States and other parts of the world. Fixing this is likely to be well beyond the role of business and technologists.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, Misinformation, and Startup
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9217. How Religious Diplomacy and Pan-Islamic Organizations Can Help Stabilize Afghanistan

Author:: Hussam R. Ahmed
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was followed by a surprisingly quick takeover by the Taliban, the predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that had initially been ousted in 2001. Their triumphant return to power 20 years has raised numerous questions about what led to the US and Western failure in Afghanistan, the implications for regional and global security, and the policy options now available to Europe and the United States. As of now, the West has no plans to engage with the Taliban government, but continued inaction could result in dire consequences for Afghan citizens as well as for Western interests at large. A severe humanitarian crisis has gripped Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, pushing nearly 20 million people to the verge of famine. The United Nations Development Programme fears Afghanistan will face near “universal poverty” by the end of 2022 with 97 percent of the population living below the international poverty line. There is also a growing threat that a Taliban regime could enable terrorist organizations to operate more openly on Afghan soil, paving the way for new, aggravated threats to regional and global security. The withdrawal has also compelled European to re-evaluate their partnership with the United States on Afghanistan and to fear that the fallout from the Taliban’s resurgence will be most severe for Europe, including more immediately with social and economic costs of dealing with more refugees. There is widespread agreement in the West that engagement in Afghanistan needs to continue but not the way it was done in the past. To explore what that reimagining Western engagement can look like, this paper presents an analysis of a foreign policy approach that has largely remained absent from the discussion: religious diplomacy. This form of Track Two diplomacy is deeply rooted in religious texts, practices, and traditions, and it is oriented toward the active role of faith leaders in politics, conflict resolution, and peace-building. In Afghanistan, where the sociocultural and political realities have historically remained deeply intertwined with it, an insufficient understanding of religion has led some to argue this was a major blind spot in the Western foreign policy approach. There is a need to revisit religion’s centrality to the war and how religious diplomacy offers an underappreciated peace-building framework that can be operationalized through faith-based organizations that share existing relationships with Afghanistan, a common religious language and cultural affinities with its people, and moral capital to draw from. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Muslim World League, in particular, are two highly influential pan-Islamic nongovernmental organizations, that have leveraged their religious legitimacy and moderate interpretations of Islamic teachings to provide a counter narrative to radical ideas that promote violent extremism, to facilitate dialogue, to mediate conflicts, and to initiate peace-building in previous and ongoing conflicts in the Muslim world. Drawing on their experience, this paper argues that creative religious diplomacy through them can be an effective policy option for the Europe and the United States for a sustainable future engagement in Afghanistan. The paper therefore offers recommendations that flesh out the form this could take.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Religion, Political stability, Domestic Politics, Society, and Community-based Organizations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

9218. The Distortion of UN Resolution 2758 to Limit Taiwan’s Access to the United Nations

Author:: Jessica Drun and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: There is a campaign underway by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to reinterpret UN Resolution 2758 as based on its “One China” Principle and spread the fallacy that, through the resolution, UN member states came to a determination that Taiwan is a part of the PRC. Yet, in passing the resolution in 1971, the countries solely intended to grant the seat occupied by the Republic of China in the General Assembly and the Security Council to the PRC. This is reflected in the official historic record and meeting minutes as well as in the resolutions raised at the time for the General Assembly’s consideration. The PRC understood then that the resolution did not contain the Taiwan conclusions it wanted. Prime Minister Zhou Enlai noted that, if Resolution 2758 passed, “the status of Taiwan is not yet decided.” Beijing, through its proxies at the UN, expressed its unwillingness to join the organization if it allowed “‘two Chinas,’ ‘one China, one Taiwan,’ or ‘the status of Taiwan remaining to be determined.’” However, given that Beijing did not enjoy the same level of international influence then as it does today, it did not reject the resolution when it passed. Instead, PRC officials assumed the “China” seat and only later began to leverage their position to promote Beijing’s stance on Taiwan at the UN level. The PRC’s efforts to rewrite Taiwan’s status at the UN ramped up in the 1990s and early 2000s at the same time as the island’s democratization. The PRC has since worked to “internationalize” its “One China” Principle and to conflate it with UN Resolution 2758, a revisionist shift from the original intent of the document. Beijing has managed to further institutionalize and normalize its stance on Taiwan within the UN by signing secret agreements with UN bodies, restricting Taiwan’s access to the UN and its facilities, and embedding PRC nationals across various levels of UN staff. The UN and its specialized agencies have not made the texts of these agreements, such as that of the 2005 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the PRC and the World Health Organization, available to the public or to any entity beyond the main signatories, though leaked guidance memos provide insights into the scope of the MOU’s content (See Appendix B). The PRC has likewise sought to force its views on nomenclature relating to Taiwan within the UN. This includes withholding UN accreditation from NGOs and civil society groups that do not refer to Taiwan as a part of the PRC in their organizational materials or on their websites. Recently, it has come to light that the PRC and its representatives have altered historic UN documents to change references of “Taiwan” to “Taiwan, Province of China.” (Examples are presented in a case study.) These developments have played out alongside marked shifts in the guidance of the UN Office of Legal Affairs on Taiwan, where it only 15 years ago cited an ambiguous and undefined “One China” policy, but now reiterates the PRC position on Taiwan. The PRC has likewise used UN Resolution 2758 and bilateral normalization agreements with other member states to falsely claim that its “One China” Principle is a universally accepted norm. It has also ensured that a plurality of countries back its views at the UN level and will cast votes alongside it—particularly on issues of Taiwan’s participation—and it reinforces this support through economic pressure on governments. The PRC’s efforts to constrain Taiwan at the UN have broader implications for international governance, as it shows a prioritization of one member state’s national interests over the global community’s—as exemplified by Taiwan’s damaging exclusion from global health debates during the coronavirus pandemic. The United States opposes the PRC’s attempts to redefine UN Resolution 2758 and has pushed back against UN statements claiming that Taiwan is a province of the PRC, including issuing a 2007 “non-paper” asserting its position that Taiwan’s status is not yet determined. The PRC has recently attempted to use its narrative of the “One China” Principle as embedded in UN Resolution 2758 to call into question the legitimacy of longstanding US policy on Taiwan—including the Taiwan Relations Act, which is US law.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, United Nations, and International Community
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and United States of America

9219. NATO and Russia after the Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Liana Fix and Steven Keil
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the culmination of its increasingly militarized foreign policy centered around a small cast of decision-makers primarily in the military and security services close to the president. Its approach is aggressive, risk-tolerant, and deeply revisionist, spanning domains and leaning heavily on brutal tactics to achieve victory. NATO is now forced to return to its original mission—to defend Europe against an aggressive and highly militarized Russian foreign policy. NATO-Russia relations relatively normalized in the immediate post-Cold War context, resulting in waning European investments in defense capabilities. NATO only began reversing this trajectory in 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, and must now significantly speed up its efforts. Key priorities include transitioning from forward deterrence to forward defense, augmenting NATO’s capabilities in Europe and creating a greater role for Europe, strengthening regional partnerships, reestablishing risk-reduction mechanisms to manage a potential escalation between NATO and Russia, and considering long-term stabilization scenarios.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9220. NATO’s Role in Global Cyber Security

Author:: Merle Maigre
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Malicious cyber activity has increased substantially over the past years, ranging from ransomware and espionage to politically motivated cyberattacks and sophisticated malware used in the war in Ukraine. NATO allies must remain on high alert. The changed nature of military conflict changes the defensive mission of NATO, which faces capable opponents in cyberspace and raises the question of how to create accountability when a hostile state fails to observe globally agreed norms. The set of action for NATO for the next five years evolves around how to impose costs and how to deny benefits against malicious actors in cyberspace.
Topic:: NATO, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

9221. Embedding Human Rights in European and US China Policy

Author:: Malin Oud
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Europe and the United States share an interest in promoting human rights in China but often struggle to affect change in this regard. Because of ineffective approaches and low political commitment, human rights are a marginalized issue in transatlantic China policy and an afterthought to commercial interests. European and US policymakers have attempted to compartmentalize their approach to China, keeping human rights separate from commercial and other interests. This does little to advance human rights, and it only seems to encourage more assertive and coercive behavior by China. During the last few years, the Western assumption that trade and foreign capital would transform China into a more open and democratic society has been replaced by a disillusioned realization that its rise as a superpower is reshaping the international order. Under President Xi Jinping, China has evolved from its previous position as rule-taker and status quo-keeper at the UN to become an assertive rule-maker and international norm entrepreneur. Its vulnerability to external pressure has declined while its power to exert pressure and economic coercion on others has increased. China no longer presents its political and economic model merely as different from but as superior to that of the liberal democracies in the West. For several years now, European and US policymakers have declared an “end of naivety” in relation to China. After years of debating how to make the EU more resilient and robust, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has “given birth to geopolitical Europe,” in the words of its chief diplomat, Josep Borrell. It remains to be seen whether this moment of clarity will translate into a more principled defense of human rights and investment in democratic resilience. For this to happen, there needs to be a broader reckoning with how Western countries for decades mishandled the authoritarian challenge to the international order, often because they were pursuing stronger economic ties with the same governments they now see as systemic rivals.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Business, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9222. Avoiding System Failure: How Process-Design Can Help Fix Politics

Author:: Chiara Rosselli, Rebecca Farulli, Ronith Schalast, and Helena Wittrich
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Popular dissatisfaction with “the system” should not be seen as caused by particular policy failures. It may signal the early stages of complex system failure, where policy and political challenges acting in concert threaten the resilience of democratic infrastructure. Policy thinkers tend to look for solutions in their own expertise. This tends to address systemic challenges through short-term policy fixes, which risks distracting from the depths of the problem and could do more damage than good in the long run. Beyond individual policies, the issue is that democratic processes of decision-making are no longer fit for purpose. Rethinking decision-making fora and processes through the lens of process design can help deliver higher ownership of policy solutions, stronger political consensus over divisive issues, and more transparent, innovative policymaking. A well-designed policy process can greatly improve policy outcomes and address pervasive distrust in political institutions. Three case studies explore how very simple process-design fixes could help improve policy and political outcomes of multilateral climate action, cross-border dialogue in Europe and citizen-led debates on the future of Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Decision-Making, and Political System
Political Geography:: Europe

9223. Next-generation Perspectives on Taiwan

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Over the past few years, Taiwan has received a surge of international attention. As the coronavirus pandemic began to spread worldwide in 2020, Taiwan emerged as a success story with relatively low numbers of cases and deaths. In the global battle against the virus, it provided medical supplies, medicine, and technology to countries in need, cooperated on vaccine research and development, and shared its best practices. The pandemic’s impact on global semiconductor supply chains also led to heightened interest in Taiwan, which dominates the foundry market, or the outsourcing of semiconductor manufacturing. The island is home to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which produces more than 90 percent of global output of the most advanced semiconductors and is gearing up to launch next-generation three-nanometer chips this year. Another reason for increased attention to Taiwan stems from international awareness of China’s growing diplomatic and military pressure on the island. Since President Tsai Ing-wen assumed office in 2016, Beijing has poached eight of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies and blocked it from participating in international organizations, including the World Health Organization. The Chinese military flew nearly 1,000 warplanes in Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone in 2021. China has also stepped up its use of disinformation, United Front tactics, and other measures to widen splits within Taiwan’s political system and induce pessimism among its people about their future to achieve its goal of taking over the island. With the upswing of global interest in Taiwan, there is a pressing need for greater knowledge about the many factors that make it so crucial to the world. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to provide future leaders a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work, their writing, and their overall worldview. It imbues them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s experience and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for the preservation of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. After a two-year hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic, TUPP resumed in January 2022 for a virtual session. Although holding virtual meetings with officials and experts from Taiwan and the United States was not ideal, the program was nonetheless successful in achieving its goals. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s cohort also included for the first time a few experts from Europe, expanding the program’s reach. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with knowledge about Taiwan and support for sustaining and expanding its ties to the world. Hopefully, TUPP will contribute to ensuring that Taiwan remains peaceful and prosperous. The contributions here, written by nine of the eleven members of the 2022 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate even greater global interest in Taiwan and its future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, COVID-19, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

9224. Expanding Engagement among South Korea and the Quad Countries in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Kristi Govella, Garima Mohan, and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Since its revival in 2017, the quadrilateral dialogue among Australia, India, Japan, and the United States known as the “Quad” has become a stronger, more institutionalized grouping with a broad and growing agenda. As a leading economy, a vibrant democracy, and a key US strategic ally, South Korea stands out as one of the most promising potential partners for the Quad. With a new administration in office in Seoul, the time is ripe for South Korea to expand its engagement with the Quad countries in the Indo-Pacific. Even without formally expanding the membership of the Quad, which is currently not under consideration by its members, there are pragmatic and effective ways for these five countries to pursue their shared interests and values through a flexible set of mechanisms across a wide variety of crucial issues. After a brief review of the debates about the Quad in South Korea, this paper presents a framework for the country to consult, coordinate, and cooperate with Quad members through distinct institutional pathways: bilateral mechanisms, sub-Quad minilateral mechanisms, issue-specific engagement to achieve a specific functional goal, and more formal Quad Plus engagement on a broad strategic level. The paper offers the following recommendations for South Korea and the Quad countries to deepen their engagement in eight areas that correspond with Quad working groups and activities: critical and emerging technologies, infrastructure, health, climate change, education and people-to-people exchange, maritime safety and security, cybersecurity, and outer space.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Quad Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

9225. Toward a New Youth Brain-drain Paradigm in the Western Balkans

Author:: Marjan Icoski
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Youth brain drain is one of the most worrisome problems for the Western Balkan Six countries (WB6)—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Serbia. The pace and intensity of youth brain drain, rank the WB6 among the top brain drain leaders in the world, with estimations to lose a quarter to half of its skilled and educated young citizens in the forthcoming decades. A situation that cast serious doubts on the democratic and economic progress of WB6, and their prospective membership into the EU. Youth brain drain is a historically rooted topic in the culture and tradition of the WB6, provoking huge sentiments and heated public debates. Due to its sensitivity, it is prone to politicization and misuse by the political parties that did not manage to find a compromise for its full acknowledgment as a separate policy field. Therefore, to date, the policy approach to youth brain drain is declarative and inconsistent, tackled as part of bigger policy areas such as youth employment, education, and diaspora engagement. Although formally, all WB6 countries have policies and institutional mechanisms in place, youth emigration and the desire to leave are constantly on the rise, underlining their limited scope and impact to keep youth home. This paper analyzes the conceptual shortcomings of the current policy approach. In line with the latest trends and tendencies of youth brain drain, it offers fresh policy options for utilization of the potential of the regional youth diaspora as the new WB6 development doctrine. The paper sees the youth diaspora not only as a source of remittances but also as a source of investments, know-how, skills, and connections as per the examples of several EU member states. The paper further announces the necessary paradigm change grounded in the shift of the public narrative and redesign of return and circulation policies through deepening regional cooperation and establishing a new migration deal with the EU under the framework of the WB6 accession processes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Brain Drain, and Youth
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Central Europe

9226. Designing Ukraine’s Recovery in the Spirit of the Marshall Plan

Author:: Ronja Ganster, Jacob Kirkegaard, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, and Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The Marshall Plan is a source of inspiration and a fountain of hope for Ukraine’s recovery; evoking it is a marker of ambition. Yet, it cannot be a template for the international aspiration to help rebuild the country. A plan for Ukraine needs to take a 21st century shape. In the late 1940s, there was one hegemon and a set of newly built institutions to aid more than a dozen ailing current and future allies. Today, many countries are needed to help one. This necessitates utilizing and adapting existing aid mechanisms.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Recovery, Post-Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Marshall Plan
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

9227. A Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine

Author:: Heather Conley
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Can one of the most successful US foreign policy initiatives in the 20th century—the Marshall Plan—be replicated in the 21st century—a modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine? The unequivocal answer to this question is “yes,” but it is essential to draw upon historical and inspirational lessons from the Marshall Plan to ensure the reconstruction and long-term economic recovery of Ukraine succeeds.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Recovery, Post-Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, Defense Cooperation, and Marshall Plan
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9228. How Its War on Ukraine Killed Russia’s Hydrogen Ambitions

Author:: Aliaksei Patonia
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Hydrogen looks like the fuel that can facilitate global decarbonization because it can be used in diverse applications—such as heat and power generation, transport, and manufacturing—without any carbon emissions. But, while many countries (including in Europe) view renewables-based, zero-carbon hydrogen as the ultimate goal in transitioning to a hydrogen economy, today most hydrogen is produced from natural gas. Thus, it is unlikely that the hydrogen transition will happen without relying on this fossil fuel. Russia is the country with the world’s largest natural gas deposits, and it has been exploring ways to adjust its energy sector to the needs of the emerging global hydrogen one. In 2021, it announced the goal of capturing up to 20 percent of the world’s hydrogen market by 2030. This came after all the major importers of Russia’s energy products had developed their hydrogen strategies, and its key energy companies started to explore new opportunities. Having signed memoranda of understanding with some of the world’s major energy companies to jointly develop Russia’s hydrogen export potential, they focused on Europe as the key destination. Some of Asia’s hydrogen pioneers and most promising future importers, such as Japan and South Korea, were also included among Russia’s potential partners. These steps could have resulted in long-lasting and fruitful collaborations generating large profits for Russia, but its ambitions have been jeopardized by its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This has led to Russia losing key political and economic partners in Europe and also in Asia, which—in combination with being the target the toughest sanctions in its history—is likely to cripple its nascent hydrogen sector. Having planned to convert its natural-gas pipelines to transport hydrogen to future buyers in Europe, Russia is unlikely to be able to use this infrastructure for this purpose anymore. The EU will be an unlikely buyer of Russian hydrogen for the foreseeable future. Turning to Japan and South Korea would not be a success either, since they have joined the sanctions regime against Russia and, like the EU, have been officially labeled as unfriendly by Moscow. This will make the transfer of the technologies critical for the production of low- and zero-carbon hydrogen from the world leaders to a technologically backward Russia very problematic. Europe will also feel long-lasting repercussions of Russia’s war in Ukraine in the energy and hydrogen sectors. With no steady supplies of cheap Russian gas or hydrogen, Europe’s decarbonization efforts and building up its hydrogen industry will be inhibited and require a lot more effort and money. Russia will have to seek alternative markets for its energy commodities and it will seek deals with China, the only country whose energy consumption can rival that of Europe. But, as one of the world’s largest producers of electrolysers and of conventionally manufactured hydrogen, China probably will not need to import Russia’s hydrogen to build up its own hydrogen sector. Possessing critical technologies of its own, it will instead increase imports of Russian primary energy sources (such as natural gas) that it can use for producing hydrogen. The influx of huge volumes of cheap Russian feedstock will speed up China’s transformation from a country with a nascent hydrogen sector into a dominant player on the global hydrogen market. If the EU or the United States—the only two actors comparable to China in economic, technological, and geopolitical strength—do not develop similarly strong hydrogen sectors, Beijing could end up dominating the global energy landscape. To avoid the geopolitical consequences of this and for global balance to be maintained, further cooperation between the EU and the United States will be needed to speed up the creation of strong hydrogen sectors for both.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Business, Trade, Hydrogen, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9229. How the EU Can Defend Media Freedom and Pluralism in Hungary and Poland

Author:: Anna Wójcik
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: In recent years, the European Union has suffered from the erosion of media freedom and pluralism, particularly in Hungary and Poland, where this has been part of a broader decline in democratic standards that has reversed gains made from the transitioning from communism. The main problems include the lack of independence of media regulators; public media being turned into propaganda outlets for the government, characterized by reporting bias and vilifying the opposition; private media capture; the state disproportionately funding government-supporting private media, including through state-controlled companies’ advertising; and creating obstacles for private media independent of government, including through revoking licenses and threatening new taxes. In Poland, the number of strategic lawsuits against public participation against certain media that criticize the government have also greatly increased. The EU has been in the prepared to tackle the issue of breaches of media freedom and pluralism chiefly through a combination of political instruments and new legislation, which may eventually embolden the EU institutions to take legal action. However, it is important to ensure any new legislative initiative will have added value. The EU already has avenues for legal actions to protect media freedom and pluralism in member states.
Topic:: European Union, Media, Freedom of Press, and Pluralism
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Hungary

9230. AI Audit-Washing and Accountability

Author:: Ellen P. Goodman
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: We are still some distance from a worldwide robot takeover, but artificial intelligence (AI)—the training of computer systems with large data sets to make decisions and solve problems—is revolutionizing the way governments and societies function. AI has enormous potential: accelerating innovation, unlocking new value from data, and increasing productivity by freeing us from mundane tasks. AI can draw new inferences from health data to foster breakthroughs in cancer screening or improve climate modeling and early-warning systems for extreme weather or emergency situations. As we seek solutions to today’s vexing problems—climate disruption, social inequality, health crises—AI will be central. Its centrality requires that stakeholders exercise greater governance over AI and hold AI systems accountable for their potential harms, including discriminatory impact, opacity, error, insecurity, privacy violations, and disempowerment. In this context, calls for audits to assess the impact of algorithmic decision-making systems and expose and mitigate related harms are proliferating1 , accompanied by the rise of an algorithmic auditing industry and legal codification. These are welcome developments. Audits can provide a flexible co-regulatory solution, allowing necessary innovation in AI while increasing transparency and accountability. AI is a crucial element of the growing tech competition between authoritarian and democratic states—and ensuring that AI is accountable and trusted is a key part of ensuring democratic advantage. Clear standards for trustworthy AI will help the United States remain a center of innovation and shape technology to democratic values. The “algorithmic audit” nevertheless remains ill-defined and inexact, whether concerning social media platforms or AI systems generally. The risk is significant that inadequate audits will obscure problems with algorithmic systems and create a permission structure around poorly designed or implemented AI. A poorly designed or executed audit is at best meaningless and at worst even excuses harms that the audits claim to mitigate. Inadequate audits or those without clear standards provide false assurance of compliance with norms and laws, “audit-washing” problematic or illegal practices. Like green-washing and ethics-washing before, the audited entity can claim credit without doing the work. To address these risks, this paper identifies the core questions that need answering to make algorithmic audits a reliable AI accountability mechanism. The “who” of audits includes the person or organization conducting the audit, with clearly defined qualifications, conditions for data access, and guardrails for internal audits. The “what” includes the type and scope of audit, including its position within a larger sociotechnical system. The “why” covers audit objectives, whether narrow legal standards or broader ethical goals, essential for audit comparison. Finally, the “how” includes a clear articulation of audit standards, an important baseline for the development of audit certification mechanisms and to guard against audit-washing. Algorithmic audits have the potential to transform the way technology works in the 21st century, much as financial audits transformed the way businesses operated in the 20th century. They will take different forms, either within a sector or across sectors, especially for systems which pose the highest risk. But as algorithmic audits are encoded into law or adopted voluntarily as part of corporate social responsibility, the audit industry must arrive at shared understandings and expectations of audit goals and procedures. This paper provides such an outline so that truly meaningful algorithmic audits can take their deserved place in AI governance frameworks.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Regulation, Accountability, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9231. Designing Sanctions: Lessons from EU Restrictive Measures against Belarus

Author:: Yuliya Miadzvetskaya
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The effectiveness and impact of sanctions are predetermined by how they are designed. This paper looks at the different elements in the design of European Union sanctions on Belarus in its different stages, their main pitfalls, and their potential effects on the country and its citizens. Several key elements are important for the design of sanctions: the triggering situation, the type of sanctions, the clarity of objectives and targets, the evidence for listings, and the conditions for review. They are crucial for explaining the mismatch between the objectives of EU sanctions and their limited impact. The gravity of the situation that triggers the introduction of sanctions is closely linked to the type of restrictive measures that will be chosen by the EU. Threats to EU and regional security as well as to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of its neighbors result in more complex measures, including sectoral economic sanctions, export restrictions, and flight bans. In the case of Belarus, broader economic measures were enacted in response to growing security threats to the EU and its partners. An analysis of EU sanctions on Belarus, including their cyclical nature, suggests that they have been most effective when their objective is limited and achievable. The release of political prisoners, cosmetic reforms to the Electoral Code, and the partial solution of the migration crisis are the most obvious examples of concessions that were made by the Belarusian authorities following the imposition of sanctions. Overly ambitious sanctions objectives limit the EU’s room for maneuver and bargaining. Bringing to justice those responsible for forced disappearances and human-rights violations or holding new free and fair elections are inacceptable demands for the Belarusian regime because they endanger its survival as it relies on the law-enforcement institutions. The effects of sanctions also depend on whom can be added on sanctions lists. Listing or designation criteria define conditions under which someone can be targeted. Those for Belarus were significantly updated in 2021 and now target those responsible for violations of human rights and election falsification, entities and persons benefitting from the regime, and those responsible for the forced landing of a Ryanair plane, the instrumentalization of the migration crisis, and Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The broadening of the listing criteria increases the sanctioning power of the EU and paves the way for the extension of sanctions listings. The EU enacts sanctions by providing a statement of reasons that must come under the listing criteria and be substantiated with sufficient evidence for each listing. Based on EU sanctions-related case law, sanctions are designed in a way that takes into consideration the due-process rights of targeted individuals and entities. The EU Council has deployed a degree of legal gymnastics in crafting its sanctions on Belarus to increase their traction, notably by using the broad concepts of “support” for and “benefit” from the regime’s actions. Conditions for the review of sanctions are construed as requirements addressed to the targeted state. The fulfillment of these or some variation in the behavior of the target could trigger the partial suspension or the lifting of restrictive measures. Those conditions in EU sanctions against Belarus are sometimes included in EU legal acts and sometimes in other political statements. Clear-cut conditions for reviewing sanctions would help in improving their effects. The paper concludes with suggestions regarding the EU sanctions policy toward Belarus, notably with respect to national bias and to the need for a proper prior impact assessment, realistic objectives, clear communication, and more leverage for the EU.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Society
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

9232. Six Lessons from a Decade of Asia Strategy Simulations

Author:: Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: How can the United States and its allies and partners succeed in the Indo-Pacific and better prepare for long-term competition in the region? Since the US rebalance to Asia began, the German Marshall Fund of the United States has brought together rising experts from Asia, Europe, and the United States to examine this question through a series of workshops and simulations conducted via the Young Strategists Forum (YSF). The discussions that have taken place during these sessions suggest six lessons about effective long-term strategies for the Indo-Pacific. First, trying to maintain the status quo is neither realistic nor strategic. Established powers tend to describe their objectives in terms of maintaining the status quo. This aim is not just unrealistic, but often deprives them of the ability to adjust the existing order in potentially beneficial ways. US leaders must present a vision of the future that is defined by looking forward not backward. Second, the United States needs to calibrate its responses to near-term crises with an eye to mobilizing the largest possible balancing coalition in the long run. In the simulations, US teams often miss short-term opportunities that could yield long-term benefits. Thinking strategically sometimes means allowing other countries to recognize that they face a serious threat today and cannot simply rely on the United States to solve problems. Third, overreaching by China presents opportunities for the United States. Over the last decade, China’s growth in power has been accompanied by increased assertiveness, in YSF simulations and in real life. China’s behavior creates opportunities for US and other leaders to create and expand coalitions that can push back against it. Fourth, acknowledging the reality of impending multipolarity in the Indo-Pacific can benefit the United States. US experts, including participants in YSF simulations, often tend to see the competition in the Indo-Pacific as largely bipolar between the United States and China. Regional actors, however, typically regard the Indo-Pacific as increasingly multipolar. By championing the rise of new power centers, the United States can foster a regional order that is broadly supportive of its interests yet less dependent on US guarantees. Fifth, focusing on “swinging” states as well as “swung” states pays dividends for the United States. Over the last five years, the United States has done an impressive job of bringing together those countries that are most willing to push back against China. But the region’s “swinging” states—those that have not yet made a clear alignment decision—deserve more attention. Quick wins with these actors are unlikely, but sustained engagement today can set the stage for realignment tomorrow. Finally, building robust coalitions requires US leadership. Many of the lessons we have learned over the last decade have to do with the importance of recognizing that other countries have greater capacity for independent action than is often acknowledged by US observers. That does not mean that US leadership is unimportant—in fact, YSF simulations suggest that it is critical if other states are to join coalitions to push back against China. The United States often labels its various allies as “lynchpins” or “keystones” in the region, but the fact remains that the most effective regional groupings are still reliant on its coordinating role, especially when it comes to China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Planning, Simulation, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

9233. The Future of the Quad and the Emerging Architecture in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Garima Mohan and Kristi Govella
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The Quadrilateral grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States (the Quad) has come a long way from its origins, establishing itself as a crucial pillar of the Indo-Pacific regional architecture and significantly shifting in tone and focus from its early iterations. Since its revival in 2017, the Quad has been elevated to a leader-level dialogue, it has begun issuing joint statements, and it has developed a new working-group structure to facilitate cooperation. It has also significantly broadened and deepened its agenda to include vaccines, climate change, critical and emerging technologies, infrastructure, cyber, and space. These recent changes to the Quad raise several questions about its future trajectory. What are the drivers of engagement, the domestic support, and the bureaucratic capacity in the four countries to continue investing in the Quad? How well does the Quad’s new working-group structure function, and will the working groups be able to deliver tangible results? How has the Quad’s agenda evolved, and will it return to its initial focus on security challenges? Are the Quad countries open to cooperation with additional countries and, if so, what form will this take? This paper analyzes these questions drawing on recent publications, official statements, and interviews with key experts and policymakers in the four countries. In doing so, it offers five key takeaways into the Quad as an evolving part of the Indo-Pacific architecture, as well as a vehicle for achieving the goals of its four member countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Quad Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Asia, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

9234. "Best and Bosom Friends" Putin, Xi and the Challenge to the West

Author:: Michael Cox
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, LSE IDEAS co-founder Professor Michael Cox highlights China as a significant player in the current tragedy occurring within Ukraine. Prof Cox traces the relationship between the People’s Republic and the USSR, through to the latter’s collapse into the Russian Federation, their formation of a strategic partnership against a unipolar post-Cold War order, and the rise in power of Xi Jinping alongside two international crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine. This Update finds that, whilst there are limits to their shared interests, China is politically committed to its Russian partner, and this status-quo leaves us in a more dangerous world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

9235. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept: Matching Ambition with Reality

Author:: Jonny Hall and Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update is based on a discussion hosted by LSE IDEAS in July 2022 on NATO’s 2030 Strategic Concept. Participants in the discussion included: General Sir James Everard, Gordon Barrass, General Sir Richard Barrons, Lt Gen Giles Hill, ProfessorChristopher Coker, Dr Luca Tardelli, Marissa Kemp, Tom McKane, and Peter Watkins. This Strategic Update reflects points made during the discussion, but no participant is in any way committed to its specific content, and the views expressed here are attributable solely to the authors. The Strategic Concept is the first since 2010 and was redrafted throughout a fundamentally different geopolitical and security context—following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This Update addresses the Concept’s recognition of necessary strategic realignment, with NATO’s widening in both its defence commitments and geographic focus on China, as well as its ambiguity in regards to practical military strategy, deterrence, and endpoint of the war in Ukraine.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

9236. Russian Strategic Interest in Arctic Heats Up as Ice Melts

Author:: Robert Jr. McVey
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, Col Robert A. McVey Jr addresses why Russia has dramatically changed its Arctic strategy since 2007, committing significant military and fiscal resources to the region. McVey additionally describes the diplomatic, information, legal, and military tools of national power that Russia is craftily employing to pursue, promote, and protect its growing strategic economic interests in the Arctic, finding that the possibility of conflict between great powers remains ever present, regardless of the potential for cooperation or competition. Given that Russia’s Arctic strategy is primarily driven by economic interests, this paper makes five key recommendations for U.S. policymakers and military leaders, focusing on security cooperation programmes with NATO allies and the Arctic states.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Economics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia and Arctic

9237. Turkey’s Involvement in the Libyan Conflict, the Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean and Drone Warfare

Author:: Buğra Süsler
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Dr Buğra Süsler’s Strategic Update explains Turkish foreign policy-making around a fragile Libya, highlighting its impact on power dynamics in the North Africa and the Middle East, as well as opening a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper addresses Turkey’s regional economic and political motives, the AKP’s increasingly hawkish use of hard power – especially the diplomatic and ethical implications of the Turkish military’s specialisation in drone warfare – and Ankara’s desire to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Libyan power-brokers key to post-civil war reconstruction.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Drones, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Libya, North Africa, and Mediterranean

9238. China’s Digital Silk Road in Indonesia: Progress and implications

Author:: Zulfikar Rakhmat
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update discusses the progress of China’s Digital Silk Road in Indonesia, a major destination, in both its hard and soft aspects, as well as the potential impact of its implementation. Chinese companies are offering a response to Indonesia’s needs, but concerns exist, especially surrounding security and surveillance, that Indonesia’s increasing reliance on China could also further erode its democracy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, Surveillance, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

9239. The ‘Kosovo Precedent’: Russia’s justification of military interventions and territorial revisions in Georgia and Ukraine

Author:: Valur Ingimundarson
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, Valur Ingimundarson explores Russia’s use of the ‘Kosovo precedent’, in order to instrumentalise its violation of international norms for geopolitical gain in the post-Soviet space. Ever since Kosovo’s 2008 unique and contested independence process, Russia has increasingly relied paradoxically on the Kosovo case to legally justify support for secession within, and now overt military expansionism into, post-Soviet territory: from its invasion of Georgia and support for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to the incorporation of Crimea into the Federation, its invasion of Ukraine, and current effort to absorb the Donbass region.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Military Intervention, Expansion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Georgia

9240. What Putin’s War in Ukraine Means for the Future of China-Russia Relations

Author:: Björn Alexander Düben
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Björn Alexander Düben analyses China’s reaction to, and motivation in implicitly supporting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as Putin’s strategic blunder becomes increasingly difficult to deal with. The author finds that, as long as Putin remains in power, long-term alignment since 2014 and a shared authoritarian world-view will cement closer ties between the PRC and Russian Federation; this at the cost of the latter devolving to a client-state dependent on China to keep its economy afloat, whilst the PRC’s cautious state banks further diminish Russian hopes of financial cooperation in order to avoid secondary sanctions from the West.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Economy, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

9241. ASEAN: Seeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine through a glass darkly

Author:: Tan Sri Munir Majid
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Ahead of the ASEAN special summit on 12-13 May in Washington D.C., Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid confronts the dichotomy between ASEAN’s chartered principles on territorial integrity and the disunity of individual member states’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The shadow of China looms large over the diminishment of ASEAN’s centrality, and the long-term dangers to the southeast Asia region from the conflict have been little considered. The Biden administration should emphasise the war’s impact on business and economics during the summit, as well as Russian irredentist support, to help ASEAN’s leaders see through the glass more clearly
Topic:: Economy, Business, Alliance, ASEAN, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Ukraine

9242. NATO’s Resilience: The first and last line of defence

Author:: Johnny Hall and Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Ahead of NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022, Hugh Sandeman and Jonny Hall confront the political challenges posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the alliance’s 2021 Strengthened Resilience Commitment, especially in creating collective standards when resilience remains the responsibility of individual member states. The authors find that resilience is a psychological mindset as well as a material factor, and NATO’s ‘whole-of-society’ approach should be framed within the concept of ‘deterrence by denial’ to potential threats. This Strategic Update is based on a discussion hosted by LSE IDEAS in January 2022 on ‘How can NATO define and develop practical objectives for enhancing the resilience of member states?’ Participants in the discussion were: General Sir James Everard, Dr Tomas Ries, Susan Scholefield, Peter Watkins, Professor Gordon Barrass, General Sir Richard Barrons, Professor Christopher Coker, and Tom McKane. This Strategic Update reflects points made during the discussion, but no participant is in any way committed to its specific content, and the views expressed here are attributable solely to the authors.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Resilience, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9243. Decoding China’s “Common Prosperity” Drive

Author:: Xin Sun
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The term “common prosperity” has quickly risen to prominence in Chinese domestic politics amid an intense regulatory crackdown on China’s leading tech companies. However, this new policy agenda offers no clear road map or explicit policy instructions, giving way to various interpretations which while insightful do not depict the complete picture. In this strategic update, Xin Sun argues that the fundamental purpose of common prosperity is to support a new political order that keeps significant power in the hands of Xi and his closest allies and bolsters the supreme leader’s political survival in the coming decades.
Topic:: Regulation, Business, Domestic Policy, and Prosperity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9244. Strategies for Order in a Disorderly World

Author:: Aaron McKeil
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Aaron McKeil aims to clarify debates between realism and liberalism, as applied theories. While he finds that each position is not without merits, under scrutiny neither is found to offer a sufficient strategy for order in a disorderly world.
Topic:: International Relations, Realism, Liberalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Ukraine

9245. ASEAN’s Cambodian Stress Test

Author:: Tan Sri Munir Majid
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has faced an unprecedented challenge since the military junta seized power in a coup in Myanmar in 2020. Departing from its initial premise of ‘non-interference’ in the domestic policies of its member states, the regional group decided to ban Myanmar’s military representatives from meetings and summits. The five-point plan for consensus was supported by most members, however, Cambodia’s tenure as Chair of this organisation has brought the plan’s efficacy and longevity into question. At a time when Europe stands united against Russian actions in Ukraine, with a coherent and consistent response from states across the continent, can ASEAN do the same as it seeks to find a peaceful solution in the case of Myanmar?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, ASEAN, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Cambodia and Southeast Asia

9246. Regime Change No More: Coming to Terms with the Greater Middle East

Author:: Henrik Larsen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Reflecting on the ‘farcical retreat from Afghanistan’ back in August 2021, Henrik Larsen discusses the need for a reckoning within US foreign policy and that of its NATO Allies. To focus on the other challenges to transatlantic security with a sense of integrity, these states must come to grips with their failed regime change agenda over the past 20 years. Afghanistan was the first of their interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2001, alongside Iraq, Libya, and Syria, that obscured the pursuit of realistic objectives and prioritised (liberal) ideals that proved to be detached from the local realities. In the wake of NATO’s new Strategic Concept for 2030 and beyond, this Strategic Update seeks to analyse the options for policy in the Middle East going forward.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

9247. The Long Shadow of the Soviet Union: Demystifying Putin’s Rhetoric Towards Ukraine

Author:: Björn Alexander Düben
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: As tensions between Russia and Ukraine reach an almost-tipping point, Björn Alexander Düben analyses the historical and geopolitical rhetoric Putin and his government have deployed against the post-Maidan Ukraine since 2014. Asking, can this be seen as another Russian assertion of dominance in the post-Soviet region, could there be reasons closer to home, or why tensions across the border seem to once again be at a breaking point? From global oil prices to regime consolidation, an analysis into the words of Russia’s elites could unveil what future Europe is steering towards.
Topic:: Geopolitics, History, Conflict, Soviet Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9248. Can Chancellor Scholz Save the West? The New German Government and Global Geopolitics

Author:: Maximilian Terhalle
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the wake of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure from the German Chancellorship, her successor, Olaf Scholz, inherits a Germany which has been lacking in strategic vision and an acute foreign policy for a considerable amount of time. Maximilian Terhalle asks, can Chancellor Scholz provide this vision for his country, and imbue NATO and the EU with a coherent and unified foreign policy in the face of threats from China, Russia, and a divided ‘West’?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, Geopolitics, Olaf Scholz, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Germany

9249. Education, Training and Capacity Building in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2021: Multilateral and Bilateral Ambitions Twenty Years On

Author:: Kenneth King
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The latest Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) took place in Dakar, Senegal in November 2021. Among the huge range of pledges and agreements, one of the most extensive was capacity building through scholarships, targeted training and people-to-people exchanges. In this Occasional Paper, Kenneth King analyses China’s pledges not just in the sphere of formal education, but across the many different sectors of China’s collaboration with Africa for the next three years. While the impact of COVID-19 can be seen in the reduction of some face-to-face opportunities in China, the extent of what is agreed to be implemented in Africa remains significant. Though these ambitious promises are agreed multilaterally with the whole of Africa, they are delivered bilaterally across the continent in more than fifty different country settings, reflecting how the Africa-China relationship remains strong after two decades of growing engagement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Education, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Training, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:: Africa and China

9250. Winter is Coming: The Baltics and The Russia-Ukraine War

Author:: Leon Hartwell, Agnė Rakštytė, Julia Ryng, and Ēriks Kristiāns Selga
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this LSE IDEAS Special Report, the authors focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Baltics. The report highlights both collective and country-level impacts and responses to the conflict. It is argued that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been among the top supporters of Ukraine, not merely in terms of military aid, but also with regards to providing substantial diplomatic and humanitarian support during Ukraine’s darkest hour since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Moreover, it is argued that this literal and metaphorical winter will be a key challenge, not only for Ukraine, but also for the Baltics. Given how closely the fate of Ukraine is intertwined with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the manner in which the Baltics and NATO respond to the winter could significantly influence the Russia-Ukraine war. A key strategic priority for the Baltics and NATO should be to promote resilience of everything from defense to energy security. Accordingly, the Report concludes with a variety of key policy recommendations aimed at the Baltics, EU and NATO.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Resilience, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Baltic States

9251. The Syrian Popular Uprising and the Decline of the Druze Political Role

Author:: Yusri Khaizran
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the second issue of al-Durziyya: Druze and Other Minorities in the Middle East, Dr. Yusri Khaizaran analyzes the position of the Druze in the Syrian Civil War between the Regime's forcefulness and the danger of radical Islam. The Druze in Syria have reached the acknowledgment that, for the first time in modern times, they face an existential threat. Al-Durziyya is a digital magazine co-published by the Druze Heritage Center and the Moshe Dayan Center in Hebrew and English. Al-Durziyya provides different perspectives on the social, cultural, and historical affairs of the Druze in the Middle East.
Topic:: Minorities, Syrian War, Islamism, and Druze
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

9252. Life, Death, and Beyond: The Belief in Reincarnation and the Phenomenon of Notq in the Druze Community

Author:: Maha Natoor
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the first issue of our new magazine al-Durziyya, Dr. Maha Natoor deals with the belief in reincarnation among the Druze and examines the phenomenon of notq, the remembering and talking about a previous life, as a mechanism which embodies the Druze identity and contributes to the preservation and definition of its boundaries. Al-Durziyya is a digital magazine co-published by the Druze Heritage Center and the Moshe Dayan Center, in Hebrew and English. Al-Durziyya provides different perspectives on the social, cultural and historical affairs of the Druze in the Middle East.
Topic:: Religion, Druze, and Reincarnation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

9253. The 2023 Elections: Legitimization of the New Türkiye

Author:: Christos Teazis
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Christos Teazis reveals the gradual transformation of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) into a state party by examining the modus operandi of the state founder Republican People's Party (CHP).
Topic:: History, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

9254. China’s Infrastructure Projects in the Middle East: Lessons from China’s Engagement Elsewhere

Author:: Dominika Urhová
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Ms. Dominika Urhova discusses the economic strategy and role of China in the Middle East, and analyzes the implications of China's growing influence in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

9255. Russia Steps up its Campaign for Influence in Africa

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses Russian propaganda and paramilitary strategies used to gain influence in recent years in various countries in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Propaganda, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Sahel, and Central African Republic

9256. Summary of the 25th Knesset election results in Arab society

Author:: Arik Rudnitzky
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The current issue of Bayan is being published about one month after the 25th Knesset elections which were held on November 1st, 2022. In his article, Dr. Arik Rudnitzky summarizes the election results in the Arab sector, and their future implications for Arab politics in Israel.
Topic:: Minorities, Elections, Domestic Politics, Knesset, Palestinians, and Arabs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

9257. On the brink of Subsequent Sanctions Against Russia Implications for Azerbaijan

Author:: Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In response to Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine and the scope of the current escalation against humanity and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, the European Council adopts the ninth package of new sanctions targeted to step up the existing pressure on Russia and its government. Since March 2014, the EU has progressively imposed prohibitive measures on Russia in this vein including individual sanctions, economic sanctions including energy, transport, and diplomatic sanctions of which multidimensional backgrounds are attributed to the illegal annexation of Crimea, Russia’s military attack on Ukraine and illegal annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the current year.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

9258. Unequivocal benefits of, and necessity for, stronger Turkic Union

Author:: Emin Mammadov and Kamran Ismayilov
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In recent years, the cooperation and unity of the Turkic countries gain increasing momentum which are being demonstrated by its viability leading to the emergence of a united Turkic World as a new geopolitical reality in the Euroasian region. The cooperation deeply embedded in historical brotherhood ties, common language root, cultural and traditional commonalities has revealed significant political and economic results in the continent.
Topic:: Culture, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Turkic People
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Caucasus

9259. The Subsequent Return to Sochi Platform: New Opportunities for Sustainable Peace in the South Caucasus

Author:: Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: Following the Russian-broken peace deal in November 10, 2020, in a way towards the sustainability of peace building process and peace situation in the South Caucasus along with the newly emerging politically and economically viable opportunities, the process has been drawing the attention of regional and international stakeholders with multidirectional views and varying degrees of contribution. In the aftermath of Prague meeting on the heels of recent escalations along the Armenia and Azerbaijani border, which revealed to be another willing step by the EU in this vein though French President’s biased approach has been reiterated, activism from the side of Russian media is being observed and the return to Sochi Platform with the mediation the President of the Russian Federation in the trilateral meeting with the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and with the Prime Minister of Republic of Armenia was held in the city of Sochi on October 31 which is considered of exceptional importance to ensure the implementation of the agreements of 9 November 2020, 11 January and 26 November 2021..
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, Peace, Sustainability, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

9260. EU-Azerbaijan Economic Relations: New Perspectives and Targets

Author:: CESD Research Team
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The study is an example of the series on issues analyzing the EU-Azerbaijan economic relations which can be considered a step forward to empower economic approach in the policy-making process aiming to provide an alternative view in addressing current challenges and developments in Azerbaijan. The European Union’s relations with Azerbaijan have been formulated based on the EU-Azerbaijan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement which entered into force since 1999. In February 2017, the EU and Azerbaijan began negotiations on a new framework agreement designed to enhance the political dialogue, trade and mutually beneficial cooperation covering a wide range of economic aspects. One of the most important strategies of EU in the energy policy is to ensure energy security through diversification of energy routes. Azerbaijan is a strategically important energy partner for the EU and plays a significant role in bringing Caspian energy resources to the EU market. In 2018, the EU and Azerbaijan endorsed joint Partnership Priorities, along the four Eastern Partnership priorities that accompany the political dialogue and economic cooperation….
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

9261. What should leaders focus on during the United Nations General Assembly High-level week 2022 to help restore some popular trust in international collective action and multilateralism?

Author:: Sarah Cliffe, Karina Gerlach, and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Leaders will come together in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) High Level Week starting September 19 for both a return to diplomacy and a test of diplomacy. At the last minute, the schedule for the meetings has been thrown into disarray by the death of the HM Queen Elizabeth II, with her funeral in London scheduled for September 19: this will draw attendance from many heads of state and governments and will mean that the earliest many leaders will arrive in New York for UNGA is the night of September 19-20. Nonetheless, these meetings offer the chance for a return to diplomacy because it will be the first high-level week in three years that approaches normal in-person attendance and meetings (although access to the United Nations [UN] building will still be restricted for all except diplomats and special invitees). Over 100 heads of state and 50 heads of government were confirmed, although it is not clear the extent to which this will change due to the UK funeral ceremonies. The current signals are that this will affect timings more than overall attendance: President Biden’s speech for example will shift to Wednesday, September 20 instead of the traditional Tuesday address. As for a test of diplomacy, this is because the sense last year that “things could hardly get worse,” after 18 months of the pandemic, has proven to be an underestimation: the invasion of Ukraine has made the political, security, and socio-economic landscape considerably worse than it was in September 2021. In these circumstances, CIC experts cover what leaders coming to the high-level week should focus on, focusing the following items that we hope to see transpire during high-level week in both public events and the bilateral/closed meetings.
Topic:: Diplomacy, United Nations, Multilateralism, and International Community
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9262. 2022 Retrospective and Trends for 2023

Author:: Sarah Cliffe, Marta Bautista Forcada, Symphony Chau, and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: One year ago, we started our analysis of trends in 2022 on a pessimistic note, including the long-lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; macro-economic volatility; the risk of a war in Ukraine and escalating tensions over Iran and Taiwan; and increasing divisions between North and South and between China and the West. At the end of 2022, looking ahead to next year, we see some surprising grounds for optimism, even though many of the risks that we pointed to have come to pass. These trends include how multilateralism played a surprisingly successful role in Ukraine, as we consider the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the UN resolutions that passed relating to the conflict, along with agreements during the G20 summit in Bali. Other positive notes pertain to potentially transformative global agreements on damage and loss and international tax cooperation, and the absorption of longer-term lessons on inter-state aggression. However, on the negative end, we close the year facing multiple crises chasing the same (declining) pot of money—whether conflict, humanitarian, socio-economic or climate. For our team’s analysis of trends for 2023, there is a focus on nine areas where politics and economics are closely interlinked, and we expect this to be a dominant theme of 2023.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9263. US Arms Sales Reveal Discord in Taiwan's Defense Strategy

Author:: Ethan Kessler
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Washington has started selling arms that serve a "porcupine" defense strategy to Taiwan. Whether Taipei fully embraces this new approach remains to be seen. Taiwan, claimed by China as a rogue province and armed by the United States, is at a crossroads. Should it continue buying big-ticket US arms, such as advanced fighter jets and tanks, to counter Chinese forces in case of a blockade or invasion? Taipei’s longstanding conventional strategy, which calls for these kinds of arms, views the ambiguous US defense commitment as concerning. Since Washington may not intervene against a Chinese attack, conventionalists want to hold on to Taiwan’s traditional, long-range weapons. Conventionalists also claim that buying big-ticket arms strengthens Washington’s political commitment to Taiwan. However, officials and experts increasingly see another strategy as prudent. Recent Chinese economic growth and military modernization have greatly enhanced Beijing’s capabilities, to the point that many believe Taiwan could not hold out alone against a Chinese invasion. Reformers thus argue that Taiwan needs to start building its forces around small, easily distributed weapons such as mobile anti-ship missiles and patrol boats and make greater investments in reserve forces and territorial defense. This “porcupine” defense strategy can theoretically buy more time for US forces to arrive in a war. The fate of Taiwan’s military strategy, which also depends greatly on political relations between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, will help determine the strength of deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. A breakdown in this deterrence could lead to US-China war. The United States not only influences Taiwan’s strategy, but has a great stake in its future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Budget, Defense Spending, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9264. The Periphery Cannot Hold: Upper Nile since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Upper Nile is in chaos. A once durable alliance between the national government in Juba and the Padang Dinka in Malakal has given way to a much more uncertain situation, in which the regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sets feuding elites against each other. Disorder has proved an effective tool of rule. In Upper Nile, Kiir's regime has successfully peeled off Eastern Nuer commanders once loyal to Riek Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO). Following a brutal dry season campaign against the SPLA-IO waged by these commanders, Machar's opposition suffered an almost total collapse of support in Upper Nile. The rump of the SPLA-IO fighting forces had already split from Machar in 2021, and formed the Kitgwang faction, which hoped to acquire materiel and money in Khartoum to fund a renewed war. However, thanks to a regional realignment that means Sudan and South Sudan are allies, the Kitgwang found no succour in Khartoum, and was easily divided by Kiir's regime. The current fighting in Upper Nile is the fallout from the two parts of the Kitgwang being set against each other by the government. Clashes have displaced more than 10,000 people, and taken on a worryingly ethnic dimension that Kiir's regime will struggle to control.
Topic:: Politics, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Upper Nile

9265. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war. Such clashes are often dismissed as 'inter-communal violence' delinked from the politics of the peace agreement. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS—a report from the Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—demonstrates that the conflict raging in Warrap is instead deeply political, and a consequence of the way that Kiir's regime maintains power by setting feuding elites against each other. In Warrap, the South Sudanese state has suffered an almost total collapse in political legitimacy, and cattle-guards have emerged as the only actors on the ground with genuine community support that can resist the predatory state, even if they are also instrumentalized by it. 'And Everything Became War' is the first in-depth study of conflict dynamics in Warrap state since the beginning of the South Sudanese civil war. Based on extensive fieldwork, the report makes one central conclusion: as South Sudan enters its fourth year of ‘peace’, everything has become war, and the South Sudanese government is the war’s cause rather than the solution.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Elites
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

9266. Introducción a “Recursos desiguales: retos de la seguridad en la encrucijada de la sostenibilidad”

Author:: Rosa Ana Alija Fernández
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En lo que va de década,el mundo está asistiendo a una sucesión vertiginosa de amenazas a la seguridad: desde la agresión de Rusia a Ucrania, que ha reavivado tensiones militares entre potencias que parecen evocarla Guerra Fría–con amenaza nuclearincluida–,hasta la pandemia de la COVID-19, la carestía de alimentos, la escasez de energía, o los efectos de la aceleración del cambio climático yla degradación medioambiental. Calificar este último bloque de “nuevas amenazas” sería despreciar la realidad de buena parte de la población mundial, que lleva décadas experimentándolas, y que ya fueron señaladascomo amenazas a la paz y la seguridad por Kofi Annan en su informe Un concepto más amplio de la libertad(SGNU, 2005: párr. 78). Lo que resulta realmente novedoso es que ahora están impactando de lleno en los países desarrollados, que ya no pueden limitarse a tratar de repeler los efectos de estosfenómenos en otros puntos del planetacomo parte de su agenda de seguridadnacional(Wilkin, 2002: 634, 641).Por el contrario, empiezan a constatar que la rápida expansión desde los años 90 del modelo económico neoliberal en un planeta que dispone de recursos limitados está generando ya riesgos a supropia seguridad nacional, además de a la seguridad internacional.Así, poco ha tardado en comenzar a materializarsela previsión realizada porPaul Rogers,quienha señalado que en las dos próximas décadas habrá tres factores predominantes de inseguridad global: i) una turbulenta economía mundial basada en un sistema neoliberal fallido que está incrementando las brechas socioeconómicas, ii) los límites medioambientales a la actividad humana, y iii) el arraigo de una cultura de la seguridad centrada en el uso de fuerza militar como respuesta a las amenazas, incapaz de asegurar la paz y la estabilidad en un mundo socioeconómicamente dividido y medioambientalmente constreñido (Rogers,2019: 139).
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9267. La pobreza como vector de inseguridadglobal e interna: una aproximación regulatoria

Author:: Jordi Bonet
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Este estudiopretende realizar una reflexión, desde una aproximación esencialmente político-jurídica internacional, sobre la pobreza como un vector susceptible de generar amenazas a la seguridad, tanto desde una perspectiva global como interna de los Estados. Sin desdeñar un enfoque de este tenor (especialmente, si es un enfoque desde el prisma de la seguridad humana), se entiende que la securitización de la lucha contra la pobreza no es demasiado útil para abordarlos problemas que genera y potenciar el desarrollo. Se aboga por orientar la centralidad político-jurídica de la lucha contra la pobreza desde su comprensión como un asunto de interés público global, al que el planteamiento programático de los ODS y el Derecho internacional de los derechos humanos ofrecen una base regulatoria sólida (sin perjuicio de las dificultades reales de llevar a cabo este programa y ejecutar las normas jurídicas internacionales sobre derechos humanos). Asimismo, no se ha querido dejar de lado la importancia colateral, pero propia, de la desigualdad.
Topic:: Human Rights, Poverty, Governance, Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, and Securitization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9268. De la Agenda para la Paz a Nuestra Agenda Común: la “sostenibilidad” de la paz

Author:: Eugenia López-Jacoiste Díaz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El presente artículo analiza el alcance de las agendas políticas de la Naciones Unidas en relación con la paz y la seguridadinternacionales.La percepción integral de las relaciones entre “paz”, “seguridad”y “desarrollo”justifica las nuevas perspectivas multidimensionales, preventivas ysostenibles de toda actividad de construcción y consolidación de la paz, que sigue siendo el principal propósito de esta Organización.En Nuestra Agenda Común(2021), el Secretario General contempla acciones concretas de muy diversa índoley diversidad de materias paraerradica las causas últimas que generan inseguridad y que son un obstáculo para el desarrollo sostenibleal que aspira la comunidad internacional de conformidad con laAgenda 2030. Apuesta porunamayor inversión en prevención y consolidación de la pazcon medidasque van desde el control de armamentos hasta la financiación de las estructuras de consolidación de la paz, pasando por la erradicación de la violencia, en particular contra la mujer,y la búsqueda de nuevos modelos asociativos y cooperativos, pero más allá de los acuerdos previstos en el capítulo VIII de la Carta.
Topic:: Security, Development, United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9269. Pobreza y desigualdad en laagendadel Consejo de Seguridad: un análisis de sus resoluciones

Author:: Rosa Ana Alija Fernández
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El examen de las resoluciones del Consejo de Seguridad en las que menciona los términos pobrezay desigualdadpermite observar un creciente interés por estas realidades sobre todo desde la perspectiva de la prevención de conflictos y en relación con la construcción de la paz. Sin embargo, el uso que hace de sus competencias para abordarlas no resulta adecuado para luchar contra la pobreza. Antes al contrario, el modelo de gobernanza que fomenta a tal fin puede agravar las desigualdades en países que salende conflictos armados.
Topic:: Poverty, Governance, Inequality, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9270. Empleo-salarios: un binomio clave para garantizar la seguridad económica

Author:: Juan Antonio Alujas Ruiz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La seguridad económica en su vertiente laboral está ligada tanto al empleo como a los salariosy acaba repercutiendo sobre el nivel de bienestarde una sociedad. El objetivo de este trabajo es determinarlas diferencias entre los paísesde la Unión Europeaen relación con el grado de seguridad económica,en base ala carencia de empleo o a suprecariedad y a la insuficiencia de los ingresos, considerando el impacto desigual según el género, la edad, el nivel de estudios, el tipo de contrato y jornadalaboral.Los datos analizados muestran que laprecariedadlaboral genera pobreza,poniendo en jaque unode los elementos clave para la seguridad interioreuropea como es la inclusión social.
Topic:: Poverty, Employment, Economic Security, and Wages
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9271. Tecnología y desigualdad: la gobernanza tecnológica como nuevo paradigma de la seguridad internacional

Author:: Milena Costas Trascasas
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En este trabajo examinamos el impacto que la introducción de las tecnologías digitales y la inteligencia artificial está teniendo en materia de igualdad y discriminación. El análisis de la arquitectura global de gobernanza existente, y de las propuestas para su remodelación, demuestra que existen numerosos aspectos que aún no se encuentran lo suficientemente desarrollados, lo que produce el riesgo de exacerbar las desigualdades y perpetuar las discriminaciones. La regulación de las actividades de las empresas multinacionales para anticipar y mitigar los impactos negativos sobre los derechos humanos que se derivan de las mismas y para que rindan cuentas por posibles daños, se presenta como elemento esencial en este contexto. Igualmente se precisa la adopción de acuerdos internacionales que se apliquen con carácter general a aquellas tecnologías que, por su propia naturaleza, tienen el potencial de poner en riesgo la paz y la seguridad internacionales. Este proceso debe perseguir el objetivo de ofrecer igualdad de oportunidades a los ciudadanos, la protección de los valores compartidos entre los Estados y, en definitiva, el bien común de la humanidad.
Topic:: Human Rights, Science and Technology, International Security, Governance, Democracy, Inequality, and Discrimination
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9272. La OTAN y los límites del crecimiento

Author:: José Luis Gordillo
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La nueva guerra fría, cuya primera batalla parece estar librándose en Ucrania, se produce en un contexto muy diferente al de la guerra fría del siglo veinte. En la tercera década del siglo veintiuno, el mundo se enfrenta a las consecuencias dela superaciónde buena parte de los límites de sostenibilidad, cuyas principales manifestaciones son el cambio climático, el agotamiento de muchas materias primas y la crisis energética. Este hecho puede conducir a una lucha desesperada por los recursos limitados entre países y regiones. En estas circunstancias, una nueva confrontación planetaria entre potencias nucleares es lo que menos necesita la humanidad para poder afrontar con éxito los grandes problemas globales. En este artículo se propone una reflexión crítica sobre estas cuestiones con el fin de reivindicar el retorno a las políticas de cooperación internacional y de resolución pacífica de los conflictos.
Topic:: NATO, Cold War, International Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9273. Ecological Threat Report 2022: Analysing Ecological Threats, Resilience & Peace

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the third edition of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), which analyses ecological threats in 228 independent states and territories. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the report covers over 3,638 sub-national administrative districts, or 99.99 per cent of the world's population, assessing threats relating to food risk, water risk, rapid population growth and natural disasters. Many ecological threats exist independently of climate change. However, climate change will have an amplifying effect, causing further ecological degradation. The research takes a multi-faceted, multidimensional approach by analysing risk at the national, administrative district and city level, while also assessing these entities by ecological threats, societal resilience and levels of peace. Additionally, the research provides projections to 2050. To assist the international community in prioritising its focus, IEP has identified the countries, administrative districts and cities most at risk. The main finding from the 2022 ETR is that without concerted international action, current levels of ecological degradation will substantially worsen, thereby intensifying a range of social challenges, including malnutrition, forced migration and illness. Current conflicts will escalate and multiply as a result, creating further global insecurity. A nexus of interrelated challenges sustains and feed off each other. Systemic effects compound, ensnaring countries in conflict traps that are difficult to escape. This nexus is explored in the ETR, highlighting the significant impact of high population growth, ecological collapses, weak societal resilience and their relationship to conflict. These issues need to be addressed systemically. Highlighting the gravity of the situation, 90 per cent of the 20 least peaceful countries face at least one catastrophic ecological threat, while 80 per cent have low societal resilience. Ten of the twelve countries with the highest ecological threat rating, in all four domains, currently suffer from conflict deaths, while 11 of these countries have moderate to high ratings for intensity of internal conflict.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Water, Food Security, Peace, Resilience, Ecology, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9274. Global Peace Index 2022

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 16th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2022 GPI, the report includes an analysis of the military conflict in Ukraine. It covers likely increases in military spending, new and emerging uses of technology in the war, its impact on food prices and global shipping routes. The report also contains a deeper analysis on violent demonstrations around the world. This year’s results found that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.3 per cent. Although slight, this is the eleventh deterioration in peacefulness in the last fourteen years, with 90 countries improving, 71 deteriorating and two remaining stable in peacefulness, highlighting that countries tend to deteriorate much faster than they improve.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9275. China Maritime Report No. 24: Incubators of Sea Power: Vessel Training Centers and the Modernization of the PLAN Surface Fleet

Author:: Ryan D. Martinson
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is building modern surface combatants faster than any other navy in the world. Before these new ships can be deployed, however, their crews must learn how to effectively operate them across the range of missions for which they were designed. In the PLAN, this “basic training” largely occurs at specialized organizations called Vessel Training Centers (VTCs). Since their creation in 1980, VTCs have played a key role in generating combat power for the fleet. But as China’s naval ambitions have grown, the VTCs have been forced to adapt. Since the early 2000s, and especially since 2012, they have faced tremendous pressure to keep pace with the rapid expansion and modernization of the PLAN surface fleet and its growing mission set, improve the standards and quality of vessel training, and uphold the integrity of training evaluations. This report argues that the PLAN’s VTCs have generally risen to the challenge, ensuring that new and recently-repaired ships can quickly reach operational units in a fairly high state of readiness.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Maritime, Seapower, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9276. Building Bridges over Caspian: South Caucasus-Central Asia Cooperation

Author:: Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:: Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:: The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Building Bridges over Caspian: South Caucasus-Central Asia Cooperation” is dedicated to the new paradigms for peacebuilding and geopolitical gaps, as well as possible confrontation and cooperation matrices in the South Caucasus region with focus on security, economic, humanitarian, political and geopolitical aspects. The CSP’s new issue includes 7 articles and 1 book review. The CSP’s current authors analysed the EU’s increasing mediation role towards the South Caucasus region, the importance of the Middle Corridor for transregional connectivity, the recent processes in the South Caucasus region in the light of ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Türkiye’s engagement, as well as the US strategic interests in this region, the possibility of the potential threats for South Caucasus, etc.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Strategic Interests, Peacebuilding, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Caspian Sea

9277. Panel I: Deconstructing the Parallels between Holocaust Distortion and Genocide Denial

Author:: Tanya Domi, Laura Cohen, Riada Ašimović Akyol, Hikmet Karčić, James Smith, and Robert Williams
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Genocide denial not only abuses history, including contemporary history, but it also insults the survivors and extends the impact of the original crimes. Denial is the final act that never ends for the survivors. This symposium examines some of the parallels of contemporary genocide denial in the Balkans with increasing Holocaust denial and distortion sweeping across Europe. What can we learn from Holocaust experts and scholars that is applicable to the present? And what are some ways that memory activists resist denial of the most brutal crimes?
Topic:: Genocide, History, Holocaust, Memory, and Activism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

9278. Cultural Encounters: Istanbul and Refugees from the Russian Empire (1919-1923) - Welcome & Panel I

Author:: Özalp Birol, Ipek Cem Taha, Valentina Izmirlieva, Vladimir Alexandrov, and Edward Kasinec
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: The Encounter in Context: Istanbul Under the Armistice Chair: Holger Klein Valentina Izmirlieva (Columbia University), "The Four Paradoxes of Istanbul's Beyaz Ruslar Moment" Vladimir Alexandrov (Yale University), "Frederick Bruce Thomas and Being Black in Constantinople" Edward Kasinec (Hoover Institution, Stanford University), "American Elite Philanthropy, Anna V.S. Mitchell and The Constantinople/Istanbul Russians, 1920-1929"
Topic:: History, Culture, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Turkey

9279. Cultural Encounters: Istanbul and the Refugees from the Russian Empire (1919-1923) | Panel III

Author:: Vladimir Alexandrov, Ayşenur Güler, Ekaterina Aygün, and Nadia Podzemskaia
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Artists in Transcultural Dialog Chair: Vladimir Alexandrov Ayşenur Güler (Independent Researcher, London) [Via Zoom], "Findings on Gritchenko's Sojourn in Istanbul (1919-1921)" Ekaterina Aygün (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich), "Union of Russian Painters in Constantinople (1921/1922-1923) as an Émigré Artists' Collective" Nadia Podzemskaia (ITEM, CNRS-ETS, Paris), "Constantinople/Istanbul in the First Half of the 1920s, through the Eyes of the Émigré Artists from the Russian Empire"
Topic:: History, Culture, Refugees, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Turkey

9280. Cultural Exchanges: Istanbul and Refugees from the Russian Empire (1919-1923) - Panel II

Author:: Valentina Izmirlieva, Holger A. Klein, and Sergey A. Ivanov
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: The Byzantine Legacy Rediscovered Chair: Valentina Izmirlieva Holger A. Klein (Columbia University), "From Russia to Byzantium: Thomas Whittemore's Intellectual Formation and the Work of the Byzantine Institute of America" Sergey A. Ivanov (Moscow Higher School of Economics), "Byzantium as Seen by the White Russians in Constantinople"
Topic:: History, Culture, Refugees, and Byzantine Empire
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Turkey

9281. Cultural Encounters: Istanbul and the Refugees from the Russian Empire (1919-1923) - Panel IV

Author:: Cengiz Kahraman
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Cengiz Kahraman (Istanbul Photography Museum) and Valentina Izmirlieva present two archives of Iraïda Barry's life and work - one in Istanbul, the other in New York.
Topic:: History, Culture, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Turkey

9282. INDIA-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

Author:: Chuong Nguyen, Binh Nguyen, Hiep Tran, and Mi Le
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The XXI is considered by major countries in the Asia-Pacific region as ‘the century of sea and ocean’ and is accompanied by fierce competition among the nations to gain interest in the sea regions. On the basis that previously only considered the competition for military objectives, geostrategic bases and traffic channels through the straits, nowadays, countries worldwide have stepped up the competition for economic interests and marine resources. The development of military power and the competitive activities for resources at sea show clear the tendency to use the sea to contain the continent. In that context, the Indian Ocean, as the world’s third largest ocean, has an important geographic location and rich and diverse natural resources; the arterial sea route is gradually becoming the center of new world geopolitics and an important area in the strategic competition between two ‘Asian giants’ - India and China. The competition between these countries in the Indian Ocean is growing and profoundly impacts the region’s stability and security. This article focuses on the position and important role of the Indian Ocean in the policies of India and China, the fierce competition between the two countries in nearly two decades of the XXI century.
Topic:: International Relations, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Indian Ocean

9283. KAZAKHSTAN AMID UNREST AND INSTABILITY: MAIN IMPLICATIONS

Author:: Aram Terzyan
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper explores the reasoning and implications of the unrest in Kazakhstan unleashed in January of 2022. This crisis was the most severe form of violence that Kazakhstan has endured since gaining independence. It distorted Kazakhstan’s image as a stable country. While the crisis was limited to the territory of Kazakhstan and developed mainly from domestic problems, it undeniably acquired an important international element. Kazakhstan’s appeal to the CSTO presented a drastic change in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy and ensued in the shift in the balance of power in the greater Eurasian region. Although Russia played a relatively subtle role on the ground, Russia’s involvement was set to link the political future of Kazakhstan to Russia for an unspecified amount of time. The study concludes that Kazakhstan is faced with the challenges of undertaking significant reforms to lower the possibility of further instabilities while remaining true to its multi-vector foreign policy agenda amid Russian intrusion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Reform, Domestic Policy, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Russia, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan

9284. THE APPLIED STATE OF VIOLATION OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS IN ARMED CONFLICTS: YAZIDI WOMEN DURING THE ISIS WAR IN IRAQ

Author:: Roza Omer Hamadamin, Nor Anita Abdullah, and Mohd Zakhiri Md. Nor
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: On 3 August 2014, fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) attacked the Yazidi minority of Sinjar in Kurdistan-Iraq. The Yazidi community was the main target of ISIS fighters, including Yazidi women. The ISIS group has committed violence against Yazidi women in several ways. This study aims to show the crimes committed by the group ISIS against Yazidi women and to highlight the problem of violence against women in war through recent living examples, such as women in the ISIS war between 2014-2017. The second part of this study identifies the legal deficiencies related to the regulations that guarantee the protection of women's rights in Iraq. Through a content analysis approach, qualitative methodologies are used. Also, based on a thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews, this paper found that the Yazidi women and girls have been subjected to the most heinous crimes involving international crimes. Furthermore, despite various legal provisions in Iraqi laws and the constitution relating to protecting women's rights, these laws have several legal deficiencies. The Iraqi legal authority has not attempted to guarantee sufficient protection for women's rights in armed conflicts.
Topic:: Human Rights, Women, Islamic State, Armed Conflict, Human Rights Violations, and Yazidis
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

9285. RUSSIA’S COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES ABOUT CRIMEA IN SPANISH-LANGUAGE SPUTNIK AND RUSSIA TIMES (2014-2018)

Author:: Ludmila Gonzalez Cerulli and Sybil Rhodes
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: We analyze Russia’s communication strategies in the period leading up to and following the seizure (2014-2018) of the Crimean Peninsula in the Spanish editions of its digital platforms, Sputnik and Russia Times. Drawing from theories of political communication, we show how Russia used storytelling and framing to build an international image and political brand consistent with, and try to justify, its foreign policy actions. Specifically, Russian messages transmit no room for doubt about the legality of any of its strategies in Crimea. We argue that this communication strategy is consistent with the concept of ‘sharp power’ to describe Russian projection in the world. Cultural and emotional appeals designed to generate positive emotions about Russia, i.e., ‘soft power’, were far less common. In recent years, Russian projection of sharp power appears to have increased in the Spanish-speaking world, particularly in South America. In addition to helping explain Russian foreign policy, our findings contribute to broader debates about political branding and truth in a ‘post-truth’, multipolar world.
Topic:: Communications, Media, Soft Power, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Crimea

9286. THE DYNAMICS OF DEMOCRATIZATION AND THE IMPLICATIONS ON THAILAND’S FOREIGN POLICY

Author:: Ornthicha Duangratana
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: As Thailand undergoes a long democratization process, significant barriers to the country’s consolidation of democracy include reserved domains and tutelary powers. While states are usually treated as homogenous units in understanding their behaviors in the international arena, the internal processes are important determinants of states’ actions. Therefore, the swings in the embeddedness of Thai reserved domains and tutelary powers can shape the domestic constraints that governmental actors face in foreign policy formulations. In this paper, the Thai democratization trajectory was investigated in a comparative study to trace the changes in the prevalence of reserved domains and tutelary powers in different periods. Then, through an exploration into Thailand’s foreign policy decisions that the country enacted towards the major powers and the neighboring countries in the Cold War and the post-Cold War periods, these foreign policy actions were scrutinized in connection to the dynamic of the decision-making apparatus of the time. The information was compiled through official papers, government statements, newspapers, and scholarly literature. The paper demonstrates that when tutelary powers and reserved domains are highly embedded in the policy-making structure, and conflicting standpoints on a foreign policy decision are presented, the outcomes of the policy-making process will lean towards the camp advocated by the non-democratic actors.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Democratization, Reserved Domain, and Tutelary Power
Political Geography:: Thailand and Southeast Asia

9287. THE CHALLENGES TO WOMEN’S ENTREPRENEURIAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY

Author:: Rimsha Khalid, Mohsin Raza, Anusara Sawangchai, and Hassan Raza
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Entrepreneurship is one of the growing trends, and studies are focusing on it generally. However, this study is mainly focused on women’s entrepreneurship. This study intends to measure the impact of work-family interference, socio-cultural support, access to finance entrepreneurial skills, and legal constraints on women’s entrepreneurial involvement through the mediation of self-leadership in the hospitality and tourism sector. This study has chosen a quantitative approach, collecting data through surveys. The snowball sampling method was used for data collection from women of Pakistan, and data was analyzed through the PLS-SEM method. The result of the present study affirms that work-family interference, social and cultural support, and entrepreneurial skills are significantly associated with women’s entrepreneurial involvement other than access to finance and legal constraints. Moreover, self-leadership significantly mediates between (work-family interference, socio-cultural support, and access to finance) and women’s entrepreneurial involvement except for entrepreneurial skills and legal constraints. The present study’s findings affirm that formal or informal institutions influence women’s entrepreneurial involvement. This study may help women entrepreneurs understand the factors and policymakers to make policies for women entrepreneurs in the hospitality sector.
Topic:: Tourism, Women, Entrepreneurship, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

9288. THE MIGRATION STRATEGIES AND POSITIONS ON THE EU MIGRATION AND ASYLUM AGENDA: EVIDENCE FROM THE VISEGRAD GROUP COUNTRIES

Author:: Tomáš Kajánek
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: At the time of the outbreak of the migration crisis in Europe, the Visegrad Group gained the status of the EU troublemaker due to its opposition to the solidarity and cohesion mechanisms adopted on the European level. The migration strategies (not only) of the individual states of the grouping proved insufficient and unfeasible in times of crisis. However, in the case of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic, the absence of national mechanisms and solutions was partially replaced after 2015 by joint declarations and statements rejecting active cooperation in resolving migration and asylum pressures within the EU Single Market. Despite failing to manage migratory pressures since 2015, four Central European countries have not learned their lessons and will face unprecedented crises in 2022 again. This time, however, Visegrad countries became the first-line countries affected by the refugee crisis. The migration and asylum agenda is thus becoming an extremely complex problem within the Visegrad Group region due to the initially intense politicization of the topic by the government elites in individual states. The paper analyses the migration strategies of individual states and the migration and asylum management-related positions after the migration crisis in 2015 and the sequence of events associated with the outbreak of armed conflict in Ukraine in early 2022.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Asylum, and Visegrad Group
Political Geography:: Europe

9289. ACTUAL CHALLENGE IN INTERNATIONAL CORPORATE TAXATION: SHIFTING THE OBLIGATION OF CONDUCT INTO OBLIGATION OF RESULT

Author:: Mihaela Tofan
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The research answered whether cooperation in ruling corporate taxation, a traditional obligation of conduct of sovereign states, was undergoing profound transformation into the obligation of result. The analyzed topic was not whether the tax authorities want or should cooperate (which is answered per se), but rather how to appropriately respond to the international taxation requirements for strengthening the multilateral agreements. Tax authorities worldwide have expressed concerns about identifying efficient regulation, and the development of multilateral agreements to combat tax evasion was under long and often unproductive negotiation. The empirical analyses of relevant literature and jurisprudence helped formulate an opinion on the regulation’s efficiency in strengthening multilateral taxation. The need to change the nature of the state’s obligation to negotiate fiscal regulation was not mentioned explicitly in hard law. Still, it was indirectly supported by soft law instruments, such as state representatives’ continuous yet divergent dialogue and the approaches presented in the international courts’ jurisprudence. The consistent influence on the obligation to support developments in international law in corporate taxation was justified, given the limit when considering its conduct nature, compared to potential benefits generated by the obligation of result.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9290. ECONOMETRIC EVALUATION OF PUBLIC DEBT ON INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO AND NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Ismail Mehmeti and Gazmeda Deda
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The nexus between public debt and inflation has been continuously investigated, but after the pandemic, it has returned to the center of researchers' courtesy. Consequently, this research examines the influences of public debt, interest rates, trade openness, GDP growth, and foreign direct investments on inflation. The study employs secondary data from 2008 to 2021 and incorporates a mixed econometric technique such as the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Arrellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond approach. The study's findings argue that public debt, interest rates, and trade openness significantly influence inflation, whereas GDP growth has a significantly negative impact. Because of the limited number of observations in the context of the research, we have not been able to evaluate the impact in the long term. The uniqueness and relevance of this research stem from its use of a combined approach, and in recent months, a continuous increase in inflation has been recorded throughout the world. The current findings and arguments inspire a productive discourse among academics, scholars, and policy-making entities.
Topic:: Inflation, Econometrics, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and North Macedonia

9291. THE IMPACT OF ISIS ON IRAQ’S NATIONAL SECURITY: REVIEW OF THE PERIOD FROM 2014 TO 2017

Author:: Araz Ramazan Ahmad and Gardwn Tahir Othman
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: In the post-Ba’athist era, stability and national security remain the two key goals. Iraq has suffered from many extremist terrorist groups on several separate stages from 2003 to 2017. The most threatening terrorist group was ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), which has enormous impacts on Iraqi society, given the vast geographical areas that it controlled, and the dangers, crimes and violations suffered by the Iraqi people with all its components. The main aim of this study is to determine the impacts of ISIS on Iraqi national security. The study relied on Content Analysis Method to analyze the collected data and achieve its aims. Also, the primary research question is about the impact of ISIS on Iraq’s national security from 2014 to 2017. Correspondingly, an international coalition of more than a hundred countries was formed to stop the rapid expansion of ISIS. The number of victims who lost their lives and were affected at the psychological and humanitarian levels was explained in this study. According to the research results, ISIS was seeking long-term goals. The most important was the preparation for disseminating this new extremist ideology. The intelligence and the exploitation of poverty, ignorance, and political conflicts that ISIS used aimed to implant the extremist mentality in the most significant number of attention.
Topic:: National Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and International Coalition
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

9292. MANAGEMENT’S PERCEPTION OF THE DETERMINANTS THAT INFLUENCE SMEs PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO

Author:: Sokol Krasniqi, Arta Jashari, and Ismail Mehmeti
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are now unquestionable contributors to economic development on the one side and employment creation on the other. To promote sustained growth, SMEs must meet specific prerequisites, particularly the leadership structures of this segment. Therefore, this research aims to investigate and identify the determinants that affect SMEs performance. The research employs a qualitative technique, using questionnaires containing 52 questions. The study surveyed 336 SMEs owners or managers from March to April 2022. The Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) empirical technique explored the influence of education level, previous experience, training attendance, business plan, consultation services, and employees' insufficient competency in SMEs performance. The research has revealed that the level of education and consultancy services positively impact SMEs performance. In contrast, neglect of training and employees' insufficient competence harm SMEs performance. The study encourages SMEs owners and managers to take advantage of professional training opportunities and to invest in existing personnel through training to acquire acceptable competence, which will be reflected in management performance. From the perspective of the contribution, it provides the most recent evidence in the context of Kosovo's economy, employing the logistic regression analysis.
Topic:: Business, Training, Management, Skills, and Influence
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

9293. THE ROLE OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN FIGHTING CORRUPTION IN THE JUDICIARY SYSTEM: THE CASE OF 2016 JUDICIAL REFORM IN ALBANIA

Author:: Bojana Hajdini and Gentjan Skara
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Corruption in the judiciary system has been considered by Albanian citizens and international organizations as deeply corrupt. In 2016 Albanian Parliament, supported by the EU and USA, adopted a judiciary reform to increase transparency, accountability, impartiality and citizens’ access to information. One way of preventing corruption and increasing citizens’ access to justice is by using information technology. This paper analyses the role of information and communication technology in preventing corruption in the Albanian judiciary system. The main research question is how and to what extent digitizing the judiciary contributes to preventing corruption in the judiciary system. The paper argues that the use of ICT in the judiciary system has been limited due to several factors, such as lack of legislation on the use of ICT in the judiciary system, absence of a unified automated case management system, lack of appropriate education or training of judiciary staff to use ICT and lack of reinvestments on ICT equipment in courts. The 2016 judicial reform, for the first time, emphasized the importance of digitizing the judiciary system in Albania. The paper concludes that digitizing the judiciary will increase integrity and prevent corruption in the judicial system.
Topic:: Corruption, Reform, Judiciary, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

9294. EMERGING POWER IN INDUSTRIALIZATION: EMPOWERING INDIA THROUGH ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Author:: Sayak Pal, N. Thilaka, and Sharmila Kayal
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The ‘soft power’ can be brought forward and achieved for any developing country through softer means. Advertising (both direct and indirect approach) is a powerful tool for disseminating information to various stakeholders concerning the MSME sector. To introspect the potentiality of India’s MSME’s emerging power, the researchers attempted to answer the different components that shaped Indian industrialization over the years and also analyzed the direct and indirect audio-visual advertisements created on MSMEs to encourage entrepreneurial activities throughout the nation. The observation indicates that direct and indirect advertisements that promote and encourage the growth of entrepreneurship have their advantages and disadvantages; however, direct advertisements are proven to be preferred over indirect advertisements, while the reason behind it can be the dilution of concept or the prominence of commercialization.
Topic:: Entrepreneurship, Economy, Industrialization, Emerging Powers, and Advertising
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

9295. EVALUATING THE ROLE OF TOURISM IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA AND OTHER MEMBER STATES OF THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION

Author:: Gayane Tovmasyan
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Tourism has a significant role in the economies of many countries. It creates jobs, brings money, promotes investments, decreases poverty, develops infrastructures, etc. Many research works try to evaluate the role of tourism development on the economy. The article evaluates the role of tourism development in the economy of Armenia and checks the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH). With the help of statistical methods, the article evaluates the connections between tourism total expenses (visitor exports, domestic spending, government spending, and capital investment), the number of tourists and tourism total contribution to GDP, employment and other indicators. Besides, the correlation analysis between these indicators was done for the Member States of the Eurasian Economic Union. The results show that the increase in tourism expenses and the number of tourists will increase GDP and employment. However, the change in tourism contribution to employment is not so high, which was explained by different reasons. The same is the case for other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. The article results may be helpful for future studies, as well as for government agencies for evaluating tourism contribution to economic development and for elaborating tourism development policies.
Topic:: Development, Treaties and Agreements, Tourism, GDP, and Expenses
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Armenia

9296. DOES COLLECTIVE ACTION INSTITUTIONALIZE RATIONAL CHOICE? CANDIDATE SELECTION IN INDONESIAN POLITICAL PARTIES

Author:: Andi Luhr Prianto, Achmad Nurmandi, Zuly Qodir, and Hasse Jubba
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The selection process for local head candidates in the electoral democracy in Indonesia is still closed and confidential. Recruitment regulations are insufficient to control the informal actions of the candidate selection process, which is based on political pragmatism. This paper examines the dynamics of local head candidate selection from the rational choice institutionalism approach, with the collective action perspective. The research method uses content analysis, with analyzed interpretively using the NVivo 12 plus application. Research findings show that candidate selection in political parties is not entirely based on supply and demand but as a rational choice formed from the collective actions of party elites. In deciding the mayoral candidate in Makassar City in Indonesia 2020, political parties are influenced by collective mentality, individual quality, group size and resources in political parties. The conclusion is that the rational choice institutionalism approach through the practices of principal-agent, game-theory and rule-based models occurs in the selection of local head candidates. This rational choice institutionalism approach explains the tension between political actors to maximize personal and group interests in political party institutions.
Topic:: Institutionalism, Political Parties, Rational Choice, and Collective Action
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

9297. DEMOCRACY AND THE RIGHTS OF NON-MAJORITY COMMUNITIES AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN KOSOVO

Author:: Besim Myrtezani and Ferdi Kamberi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Democratic governance has to do with the majority's will, respecting the rights of communities and all citizens' well-being. In Kosovo, the rights of communities are regulated by the constitution and legislation, which guarantee the special rights of minority communities. One of the fundamental policies of governmental institutions was about decentralizing local self-government, designed to facilitate the creation of new municipalities of communities and their integration into the local institutions. Our purpose was to search and analyze the level of representation of communities in the local institutions, legal mechanisms that guarantee their rights, challenges in putting the rights of communities into practice, and the political steps that must be taken to achieve so. The methodology is based on quantitative research with 500 (five hundred) respondents in three municipalities: Pristina, Gracanica, and Dragash, where 59% of respondents are male and 41% are female. The results show that about 55% of the communities are somewhat satisfied with the constitutional guarantees, and 38% are represented in the institutional life of Kosovo. Implementing legal mechanisms has allowed the communities to have higher representation at institutional levels and be part of Kosovo society’s integrative processes.
Topic:: Democracy, Legislation, Institutions, Autonomy, and Community
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

9298. Rethinking Military Responses to Terrorism and Insurgency in Nigeria

Author:: Maurice Ogbonnaya
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Since 2003, terrorist insurgency in Nigeria has occasioned complex security and humanitarian crises, especially in the northeast region of the country. Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group from the region, has killed over 30,000 people and caused the displacement of more than 3 million others within the Lake Chad Basin region. Military responses by the Nigerian state and in collaboration with multilateral security agencies have achieved limited success. This paper not only questions the adequacy of military responses to terrorism, as a standalone approach, but it also advances the argument in the extant literature on the obsolescence of excessive militarization of counterterrorism operations as a security management strategy. It suggests the adoption of a more comprehensive and broad-based strategic approach. This is predicated on the limitations of purely military operations in counterterrorism, noting that military responses alone are structurally not designed to deal with the fundamental root causes of terrorism. In this regard, the paper advocates for a combination of military and other non-military counterterrorism approaches that seek to address the fundamental factors that give rise to terrorism.
Topic:: Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Economic Inequality, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

9299. World Economy Winter 2022: Strong headwinds for global economic activity

Author:: Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9300. German Economy Winter 2022: Inching through the energy crisis

Author:: Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Sonnenberg, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Vincent Stamer, and Timo Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by so-called price brakes. Overall, inflation in 2023 will be much lower at 5.4 percent than we had expected in our autumn forecast (8.7 percent). Although real disposable income and, as a result, private consumption are likely to decrease next year, the decline will be much smaller than had been expected a few months ago. As a result, we now expect a slight increase in GDP of 0.3 percent for 2023 (autumn: -0.7 percent). In 2024, GDP is expected to grow somewhat more strongly again at 1.3 percent (autumn: 1.7 percent). The labour market is robust despite the economic slowdown, partly because companies are still desperately seeking skilled workers. The public fiscal balance is likely to deteriorate significantly in 2023 due to the aid packages in response to the energy crisis and displays a deficit of around 4 percent relative to GDP. With the expiry of the aid packages, the deficit will decrease again in 2024.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Budget, Business, Labor Market, Energy Crisis, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS