Publication Year: within 3 Years - CIAO Search Results

9101. The Biden Administration’s National Security Strategy

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Ross Harrison, Jerry Feierstein, and Marwa Maziad
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Biden Administration's National Security Strategy has drawn some criticism for its relatively late release, but what of its actual substance? Today, Alistair Taylor talks with four experts, each with unique insights into the context and strategy of this document with regards to the Middle East, North Africa, and American foreign policy at large. Our first guest is Ross Harrison, a Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Middle East Institute, and a Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh. Our second guest is Jerry Feierstein, Distinguished Senior Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy and Director of MEI’s Arabian Peninsula Affairs Program. We are then joined by Dr. Marwa Maziad, a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI's Defense and Security Program and a Visiting Assistant Professor of Israel Studies at the Gildenhorn Institute at the University of Maryland. Our final guest is Melissa Horvath, a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI’s Defense and Security Program and the lead Foreign Military Sales Instructor and Curriculum Developer at ASRC Federal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

9102. Russia’s War on Ukraine: Iran’s Growing Role and the Nuclear Threat

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Philip Breedlove, and Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In today's episode, Alistair Taylor sits down with experts from MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative to assess the trajectory of Russia's war on Ukraine. They discuss Russia’s growing attacks on critical infrastructure, its recent deployment of Iranian drones and their impact on the battlefield, the potential nuclear threat, and where things might be headed from here. Today's guests are General Philip Breedlove and Iulia-Sabina Joja. General Breedlove is a retired United States Air Force General who served as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and Commander of U.S. European Command. He’s the Distinguished Chair of MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative and a Distinguished Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech. Iulia is a Senior Fellow and Director of MEI's Frontier Europe Initiative and Director of its "Afghanistan Watch" project. She teaches courses on European security at Georgetown and George Washington universities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

9103. COP 27: Ask the Experts with Mohammed Mahmoud

Author:: Mohammed Mahmoud, Andrei Covatariu, Athraa Khamis, Malak Altaeb, Megan Ferrando, Orestes Morfin, and Youssef Wehbe
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: With Egypt hosting COP 27 this week, all eyes are on climate change in the MENA region. For today's episode, Senior Fellow and Director of the Climate and Water Program Mohammed Mahmoud asked several of MEI's Climate and Water Program scholars what they consider to be the most pressing issues regarding climate change, water resources, and the environment. Today's guests include Andrei Covatariu, Athraa Khamis, Malak Altaeb, Megan Ferrando, Orestes Morfin, and Youssef Wehbe.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

9104. Iran’s Protests 3 Months On

Author:: Alistair Taylor and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Now entering their fourth month of defiance, the people of Iran continue to protest the regime of Ali Khamenei. Since protests began in September, the crackdown by security forces has become increasingly severe and the government has now begun executing protesters. According to figures from the Human Rights Activists News Agency, as of Dec. 15, nearly 500 protesters have been killed and almost 20,000 people have been arrested. Despite the risks, Iran's astonishingly brave protesters continue to call for the fall of the regime. For an update on the situation and an eye towards the future, host Alistair Taylor turns to Alex Vatanka, founding Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute.
Topic:: Human Rights, Social Movement, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

9105. Pakistan's Political Crisis

Author:: Marvin G. Weinbaum, Madiha Afzal, and Syed Mohammed Ali
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Marvin Weinbaum, Madiha Afzal, and Syed Mohammad Ali discuss the recent political upheaval in Pakistan, which comes against the backdrop of mounting economic problems.
Topic:: Economics, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

9106. Ethiopia (Horn of Africa, part 1 of 2)

Author:: Nathenael Gemechu, Michael Woldemariam, and Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Nathenael Gemechu moderates a conversation with Michael Woldemariam and Guled Ahmed on Ethiopia in the first installment of a two-part series on the Horn of Africa. Woldemariam and Ahmed discuss the ongoing Tigrayan conflict that includes Ethiopia and Eritrea and the influence of external players.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Influence
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Horn of Africa, and Tigray

9107. Expedition to Antarctica

Author:: Mohammed Mahmoud and Athraa Khamis
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In this interview from MEI's Climate and Water program, guest host Mohammed Mahmoud speaks with Athra Khamis about her journey to the remote continent of Antarctica, what she saw there, and how it impacted her views on climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Water
Political Geography:: Antarctica

9108. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)

Author:: Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa

9109. MEI-NAPI Roundtable on the Environment in Tunisia: A Youth Perspective On Challenges & Opportunities

Author:: Intissar Fakir, Fatine Ezbakhe, Marouen Taleb, Abir Ben Romdhane, and Mohamed Walid Jomni
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the North African Policy Initiative (NAPI) are pleased to announce the sixth in a series of roundtable discussions inviting engaged youth to share their perspectives on the key issues facing their country’s future. This policy-oriented discussion will feature young Tunisian researchers offering their views on the current environmental challenges in their country and the opportunities ahead. Tunisia is already facing the reality of climate change. From the degradation of natural resources and water scarcity to desertification and coastal erosion, the country has to cope with complex and interconnected environmental challenges. While Tunisia has put the environment on top of its political and economic agenda (with Article 45 of its Constitution acknowledging the “right to a healthy and balanced environment and the right to participate in the protection of the climate”), there is still room to do more.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Politics, Natural Resources, Water, and Desertification
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

9110. Area Studies, the Cold War, and the History of the US Academic Library Collections

Author:: Michael Albin, Ryan Zohair, Joan Weeks, and William Kopycki
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This panel brings together Middle East Studies librarians to discuss how Cold War-era programs like the Food for Peace Act, whose revenues supported the Library of Congress' foreign offices in the Middle East, functioned and contributed to foreign language acquisitions in the U.S., and how they continue to shape how knowledge is produced on the region within American academia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Academia, Area Studies, and Libraries
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

9111. Iraq's Political Shift

Author:: Randa Slim, Farhad Alaadin, and Marsin Alshamary
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Randa Slim is joined by Farhad Alaadin and Marsin Alshamary to discuss the latest political events in Iraqi Parliament, Muqtada al-Sadr, and what the future of Iraqi politics could look like moving forward.
Topic:: Politics, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

9112. Tunisia's Economy

Author:: Intissar Fakir, Marwa Haddar, and Fadil Aliriza
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Intissar Fakir is joined by Marwa Haddar and Fadil Aliriza to discuss the economic issues Tunisia is facing, international financial institutions' role in the crisis, and the government's actions, or lack thereof, to help the country.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Finance, International Institutions, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

9113. Session IV: The Unsustainability of Camps and Prisons: How Things Need to Change

Author:: Sahar Attrache, Fabrizio Carboni, Sonia Khush, Letta Tayler, and Elizabeth Hagedorn
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Over three years ago, Islamic State’s territorial project in Syria and Iraq was dealt its final defeat in al-Baghouz. While the terrorist group’s insurgency in the region remains largely contained, one single and largely unaddressed issue is worsening by the day, threatening to guarantee an eventual resurgence. As of mid-2022, more than 60,000 men, women and children—most with some level of past association with ISIS—remain in makeshift detention and squalid camps in Syria. Thousands are Western citizens. This is an increasingly unsustainable security and humanitarian crisis, and progress on resolving it has moved painfully slowly, if at all.
Topic:: Security, Prisons/Penal Systems, Islamic State, Civilians, Humanitarian Crisis, and Detention
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

9114. Biden's Trip to the Middle East

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Paul Salem, Bilal Y. Saab, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: President Joe Biden's recent trip has received acclaim, scorn, and indifference from across the foreign policy establishment. Why did Biden go to the Middle East, and what did he seek to gain? In this much-anticipated episode, host Alistair Taylor and four expert guests reflect on this question from a variety of perspectives, diving deep into the motivations and repercussions of President Biden's trip. Esteemed guests include Paul Salem, President of MEI; Bilal Saab, Senior Fellow and Founding Director of the Defense and Security Program at MEI; Mirette Mabrouk, Senior Fellow and Founding Director of the Egypt Program at MEI; and Alex Vatanka, Director of the Iran Program and Senior Fellow at the Frontier Europe Initiative at MEI.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East

9115. The US strike on al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On today’s episode, host Alistair Taylor explores the ramifications of the CIA drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31. Joining the program are three MEI experts - Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London - who bring with them a variety of perspectives, from intelligence to diplomacy.
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Drones, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

9116. MENA Photography: More than your eyes can see

Author:: Lyne Sneige, Iman Ali, and Samar Hazboun
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: MEI Arts and Culture Center Director Lyne Sneige speaks with photographers Iman Ali and Samar Hazboun, who are featured in MEI's latest gallery exhibition "More Than Your Eyes Can See: Contemporary Photography from the Arab World" - curated by Laila Abdul-Hadi Jadallah and in partnership with Tribe Magazine.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, and Photography
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

9117. Iraq's Deepening Political Crisis

Author:: Farhad Alaaldin and Robert Ford
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Ten months on from last October’s elections, Iraq still does not have a new government and faces a deepening political crisis. To understand the current situation's perils and what may be next for the future of the country, we are joined by Farhad Alaaldin, chairman of the Iraq Advisory Council, and Robert Ford, MEI Senior Fellow and former Ambassador to Syria and Algeria.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

9118. Israeli Raids on Palestinian Civil Society Organizations — The Costs of International Inaction

Author:: Shawan Jabarin, Raed Jarrar, Lara Friedman, Khaled Quzmar, Zaha Hassan, Sahar Francis, Ubal al-Aboudi, Khaled Elgindy, Moayyad Bsharat, and Tahreer Jaber
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Co-convened by the Middle East Institute, the Foundation for Middle East Peace, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, DAWN, the International Crisis Group, Century International and USMEP.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Human Rights, International Law, and Judiciary
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9119. Algeria & France: Untangling Past and Present

Author:: Intissar Fakir and Francis Gilles
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: French President Emmanuel Macron's recent visit to Algeria brought talks of cooperation and reconciliation to the fore in an otherwise frought relationship. France and Algeria share a long and painful history, including 132 years of colonial occupation and an eight year war of devastation. In an effort to unpack the motivations and context behind Macron's visit, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the North Africa and the Sahel Program Intissar Fakir speaks with Francis Gilles, Senior Research Fellow with the Barcelona Center for International Affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Bilateral Relations, Colonialism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Algeria, and North Africa

9120. Yemen After Eight Years of Civil War

Author:: Gerald Feierstein, Fatima Abo Alasrar, and Ibrahim Jalal
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Now in the fifth month of a ceasefire, what are the prospects for a negotiated end to the Yemeni Civil War, and the beginning of a sustained peace? MEI Distinguished Sr. Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy and Director of the Arabian Peninsula program Gerald Feierstein discusses these questions with two outstanding scholars who have followed and written extensively about Yemen over the years. Fatima Abo Alasrar is a nonresident scholar at MEI and a Senior Analyst for the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies. Ibrahim Jalal is a Yemeni security, conflict, and defense researcher in the UK, an Erasmus Scholar, and a co-founding member of The Security Distillery think tank.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

9121. Contending with Reality in Palestine & Israel

Author:: George Salem, Brian Katulis, and Khaled Elgindy
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Today's two-part episode is a study in contrasts. On one hand, the Partnership for Peace Fund strives to create a social and economic environment in which sustainable peace can become possible. On the other, hard political realities and gridlock undermine cooperation at every turn. The episode begins by discussing peace-building efforts with George Salem, co-founder and Chairman of the Arab American Institute and Inaugural Chair of the Partnership for Peace Advisory Board. The discussion then turns to political realities and facts on the ground with Brian Katulis, Vice President of Policy at MEI, and Khaled Elgindy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs.
Topic:: Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9122. Israel's Digital Occupation

Author:: Eliza Campbell and Emerson T. Brooking
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Eliza Campbell and Emerson T. Brooking discuss the Israeli government’s suppression of Palestinian online speech and activism, the surprising role that American social media companies play in the process, and their recent article for Foreign Policy, "How to End Israel’s DIgital Occupation."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Social Media, Occupation, Free Speech, and Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9123. Biden's First Year

Author:: Brian Katulis and Randa Slim
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Brian Katulis and Randa Slim join the program to discuss the Biden administration's Middle East policy one year in, and look ahead to the challenges it will face in the region in the year ahead.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East

9124. ISIS in Syria and Iraq

Author:: Charles Lister and Mick Mulroy
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Charles Lister and Mick Mulroy discuss discuss the dramatic Feb. 3rd U.S. special operations raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the group’s late January attack on the al-Sina prison, and ISIS’s broader trajectory in both Syria and Iraq.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

9125. Expert Voices: Wayne Ackerman

Author:: Wayne Ackerman
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Interview series featuring experts and advisors from MEI's Economics and Energy Program.
Topic:: Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East

9126. Sustainable Financing in MENA

Author:: Lama Kiyasseh, Lina Osman, and Karen E. Young
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Lama Kiyasseh and Lina Osman join Karen Young, director of MEI's Economics and Energy program, to discuss how sustainable financing is changing the region by channeling financial resources toward addressing environmental and social challenges.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Finance, Sustainability, and Society
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

9127. Between the Sky and the Earth: Contemporary Art from the UAE

Author:: Afra Aldhaheri and Asma Belhamar
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Afra Aldhaheri and Asma Belhamar, two featured artists in the MEI Art Gallery’s latest exhibition, Between the Sky and the Earth: Contemporary Art from the UAE, join MEI’s Lyne Sneige to discuss the inspirations and artistic processes behind their pieces in the show.
Topic:: Development, Arts, and Culture
Political Geography:: Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

9128. Taliban rule of Afghanistan at six months

Author:: Marvin G. Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Marvin Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi discuss Afghanistan’s worsening economic and humanitarian crises six months after the Taliban reclaimed control of the country.
Topic:: Security, Taliban, Humanitarian Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

9129. Lebanon in Crisis

Author:: Randa Slim and Edward M. Gabriel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Randa Slim and Amb. Edward Gabriel discuss the daunting trifecta of economic, financial, and political crises Lebanon currently faces and what they anticipate for the country's future.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Political Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

9130. The GERD and Cyber Diplomacy

Author:: Mirette F. Mabrouk, Joey Shea, and Eliza Campbell
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Mirette Mabrouk, Joey Shea, and guest host Eliza Campbell discuss current political disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), cyber diplomacy, and the effects of climate change on the Horn of Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Infrastructure, Dams, Cyberspace, and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Horn of Africa

9131. In Conversation | Ambassador Khaled Alyemany and Ambassador Gerald Feierstein

Author:: Khaled Alyemany and Gerald Feierstein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The former foreign minister of Yemen, Ambassador Alyemany, will be participating in an in-person conversation with the Middle East Institute's policy director, Ambassador Gerald Feierstein. The two will be discussing several issues regarding Yemen, especially the humanitarian crisis as well as Alyemany's inputs and thoughts as to the appropriate approach to the crisis and building a strong Yemen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

9132. The Parallels of Ukraine and Syria

Author:: Charles Lister and Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Iulia-Sabina Joja and Charles Lister discuss the parallels between the wars in Ukraine and Syria, the similarities of Russia’s tactics in both conflicts, and what the recent history in Syria may signal for Ukraine in the months ahead.
Topic:: History, Syrian War, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

9133. Israel & Palestine: Hot topics in Congress

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Khaled Elgindy, and Lara Friedman
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Host Alistair Taylor speaks with Khaled Elgindy and Lara Friedman about the release of their recently completed 2022 congressional briefing series on Israel and Palestine: Hot topics in Congress. The eight-part webinar series features an array of Palestinian and Israeli voices, weighing in on some of the most pressing and timely Israel/Palestine-related topics in Congress. Recordings of all eight sessions of the congressional briefing series can be found on the MEI and FMEP websites at www.mei.edu and www.fmep.org.
Topic:: Education, Government, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

9134. US-Gulf Relations at the Crossroads

Author:: Gerald Feierstein, Bilal Y. Saab, and Karen E. Young
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Amb. Gerald Feierstein, Bilal Saab, and Karen Young join guest host Brian Katulis to discuss their recent MEI policy paper, US-Gulf Relations at the Crossroads: Time for a Recalibration, and why they believe now is not the time to disengage from the region.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

9135. Youth Climate Activism in MENA

Author:: Mohammed Mahmoud and Neeshad Shafi
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Mohammed Mahmoud and Neeshad Shafi discuss youth climate activism in the region and Shafi's experience at MENA Climate Week and the Doha forum.
Topic:: Climate Change, Youth, and Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

9136. France's Presidential Election and Foreign Policy

Author:: Intissar Fakir, Cinzia Bianco, and Perla Srour-Gandon
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Intissar Fakir, Cinzia Bianco, and Perla Srour-Gandon discuss the results of the recent French presidential election and what they mean for France's foreign policy and the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe and France

9137. A Conversation with Dr. Haider al-Abadi

Author:: Haider al-Abadi
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Former Iraqi Prime Minister Dr. Haider al-Abadi joins the program to discuss the country’s fight against ISIS, Iraqi politics and the challenges of reform. Dr. al-Abadi has a new book out, entitled "Impossible Victory: How Iraq Defeated ISIS" (Biteback Publishing, April 2022).
Topic:: Government, Reform, Islamic State, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

9138. Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Karen E. Young, Emily Stromquist, and Colby Connelly
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Karen Young, director of MEI's Program on Economics and Energy, is joined by Emily Stromquist and Colby Connelly for a discussion on gas and energy developments in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: Development, Gas, Investment, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Algeria, Egypt, and Eastern Mediterranean

9139. The Belt and Road Initiative as Ten Policy Commandments: Review of Xi’s Kazakhstan and Indonesia Launch Speeches

Author:: Lauren A. Johnson
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: In 2019 Foreign Policy described China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as “the most talked about and least defined buzzword of this decade”. Given that confusion and the importance of leader political speeches in China, especially those of current President Xi Jinping, it is surprising that the BRI literature has little in-depth analysed the two launch speeches of 2013. This article seeks to fill that gap with study of those speeches and focus on the five cooperationoriented areas announced in each. In comparative context those ten pillars appear not to be descended from New Era Chinese heaven but rather demonstrate substantive thematic overlap with the ten pillars of what was once relatively mainstream macroeconomic development policy, the Washington Consensus. Yet, in the case of the BRI there is a relative implicit implementation emphasis also. In forward context of contemporary global political economy tensions, the need to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the G7’s Build Back Better and the European Union’s Global Gateway ambitions also, this article may offer a timely fresh and comparative lens on the BRI.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

9140. Ukraine and China: Russian Invasion and After

Author:: Vivienne Bath, Rowan Callick, Raffaello Pantucci, Bing Ling, and Jingdong Yuan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: This Understanding China Brief results from a roundtable discussion organized by the China Studies Centre and the Centre for Asia and Pacific Law of Sydney University on 10 March 2022 to examine the legal, political, economic, and international relations issues surrounding China arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

9141. Why China’s Zero Covid Strategy Might Underwrite China’s High-Quality Development and Common Prosperity Agendas – At Home and Away

Author:: Lauren Johnston
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: The more than month-long strict ‘Zero-Covid19’ lockdown of Shanghai from April 1, 2022, drew international attention for the fact that one of the world’s richest and most trade-connected cities in the world even could be so shutdown. Economists have expressed fear that the scale of the disruption to China’s middle-class elite and to global supply chains may have lasting negative impacts for China’s economy and globalisation. In a case of making hay while the lockdown sun shines, however, while residents of Shanghai and to some extent also Beijing, have been locked inside, Beijing has been busy announcing some new hukou-related educational and civil administrative reforms. In total contrast to locking Chinese down, these may ultimately and in contrast come to underpin a far more mobile Chinese labour force, a more competitive business environment within China, and even more mobility of Chinese citizens globally. In this way, far from being incongruent with China’s economic development or globalisation, via the parallel hukou-related reforms that took place alongside the distraction of COVID19 lockdowns of early 2022, these may prove to have served to underpin not only China’s ‘high-quality development’ and ‘common prosperity’ agendas, but even the fluidity of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Topic:: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9142. What now for Australia-China relations?

Author:: The University of Sydney China Studies Centre
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: After the May Federal Election, Labor Party leader Anthony Albanese was sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Australia. What could this change in government mean for future Australia-China relations? At the China Studies Centre event on 3 June, four experts and practitioners in Australia-China relations discussed the bilateral relations over the past few years and the prospects for future political, social and economic interactions.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

9143. China’s international higher education environment: change and stasis

Author:: The University of Sydney China Studies Centre
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: It seems that China’s international higher education environment may be changing. This roundtable discussion focuses on the following 4 topics: 1. Several of China’s leading universities have announced their withdrawal from international ranking schemes. How do more China-focussed measures of performance feed into the push for world-class universities. 2. There seems to be a push to discourage Chinese students from going overseas for international education opportunities, as for example in the postponement of US placement exams and continuing concerns about Covid-19 pandemic control. Is this likely to continue, and if so for how long and under what conditions 3. What are the prospects for recruitment of Chinese students to Australian universities. 4. What are the prospects for China’s international cooperation in higher education, both in research and in delivery of joint venture programs and institutions in China. The discussion was chaired and moderated by Anthony Welch of Sydney School of Education and Social Work, the University of Sydney, and the speakers include academic managers and leaders, academics with an interest in international higher education (China’s and more generally), and those with experience of joint venture higher education institutions.
Topic:: Education, Higher Education, COVID-19, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9144. Post 20th CCP Congress Roundtable

Author:: The University of Sydney China Studies Centre
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China met in Beijing starting 16 October. The last five years since the 19th Congress have seen fairly important changes in the political environment, including the deterioration of relations with the USA, the challenges of dealing with the pandemic, and an economic slowdown. The Congress has adopted the various reports presented and announced the new CCP leadership line-up. On Monday 31st October the China Studies Centre hosted an online Roundtable discussion of the main outcomes of the Congress.
Topic:: Governance, Ideology, Transition, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9145. Americans’ Support for Key LGBTQ Rights Continues to Tick Upward

Author:: Robert Jones, Natalie Jackson, Diana Orces, Ian Huff, and Maddie Snodgrass
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: For several years, PRRI has surveyed Americans’ support and opposition to three main LGBTQ rights policies: Laws that would protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people against discrimination in jobs, public accommodations, and housing (since 2015) Allowing a small business owner in your state to refuse to provide products or services to gay or lesbian people if doing so would violate their religious beliefs (since 2015) Allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally (since 2014) All three issues have been addressed in continued policy action and court decisions at the federal and state levels during this time period. There is currently no national law guaranteeing nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people across most categories, but the 2019 Bostock v. Clayton County, Georgia U.S. Supreme Court ruling found that LGBTQ discrimination in employment is considered “sex discrimination” as defined by the Civil Rights Act of 1964.[1] However, that ruling applies only to employment, and beyond that, 29 states currently do not have complete or any nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ Americans.[2] The U.S. Congress is currently considering the Equality Act, which would bar discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity at the federal level.[3] The recent history of LGBTQ rights and the rights of private business owners to deny services that may violate their religious beliefs has been complex, notably involving a highly publicized battle between a baker and a gay couple for whom the baker refused to make a wedding cake. The years long battle culminated in the 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, which sided with the baker on narrowly defined terms.[4] The issue remains unsettled, and the Supreme Court will hear another case on the issue in 2022.[5] Same-sex marriage was legalized at the federal level by the Obergefell v. Hodges U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2015.[6] There are fears that the court, which is now majority conservative, might overturn the decision if an opportunity arises. If the ruling is overturned, same-sex marriage might become illegal in states that had not passed marriage equality legislation prior to 2015.[7]
Topic:: LGBT+, Marriage, Identity, and Equality
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9146. American Bubbles: Politics, Race, and Religion in Americans’ Core Friendship Networks

Author:: Robert Jones, Natalie Jackson, Diana Orces, Ian Huff, and Maddie Snodgrass
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: To better understand the composition of Americans’ core friendship networks, PRRI designed a study to assess the scope and diversity of Americans’ social relationships. The method of measuring Americans’ core social networks was modeled after the General Social Survey and follows up on a study PRRI conducted in 2013. Respondents were asked to name people with whom they “discussed important matters” in the previous six months, regardless of the nature of the relationship or the frequency of interaction. This approach is designed to measure the ways in which individuals’ choices and attitudes are influenced by their family and close friends.[1]
Topic:: Politics, Race, Religion, Social Cohesion, Social Identities, and Social Exclusion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9147. The Role and Importance of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity in Heterosexual and LGBTQ Americans’ Lives

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: n 2021, PRRI asked a series of questions related to how important personal identities are to Americans, one of which was about sexual orientation and gender identity: “When you think about your personal identity, how important is sexual orientation or gender identity in your life?” Respondents could say it is the most important thing, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important. One-third of Americans (33%) said that their sexual orientation or gender identity is the most important thing or a very important thing in their lives. Just over four in ten LGBTQ Americans (41%) say their sexual orientation is the most important or a very important part of their identity, compared to one-third (32%) of heterosexual Americans. LGBTQ Americans comprise nine percent of the survey respondents, and 91% are cisgender (not transgender) and heterosexual.[1] It is not surprising that LGBTQ Americans say their sexual orientation or gender identity is the most important or a very important identity given the marginalization of the group and the celebration of Pride Month in June to commemorate the fight for LGBTQ rights and recognition. The concept of a strong cisgender heterosexual identity, however, might be somewhat surprising. This report examines both LGBTQ and cisgender heterosexual Americans who say their sexual orientation is a very important identity and how the strength of their sexual orientation identity impacts their views.[2] The differences demonstrate quite clearly that heterosexual Americans who say their sexual orientation is a very important identity exhibit cultural and social threat attitudes, whereas LGBTQ Americans with a strong attachment to their sexual orientation are generally more progressive.
Topic:: Religion, LGBT+, Identity, Gender, and Sexual Orientation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9148. Political and Religious Activation and Polarization in the Wake of the Roe v. Wade Overturn

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: In a survey conducted June 24-26, 2022, after the Dobbs decision was announced, 65% of Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, including 33% who say it should be legal in all cases and 32% who say it should be legal in most cases. One-third of Americans (33%) say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, including 25% who say it should be illegal in most cases and 8% who say it should be illegal in all cases. PRRI has tracked opinion on this question since 2010, when 55% of Americans said abortion should be legal in most or all cases and 42% said it should be illegal in most or all cases. Much of the change has been in the “all cases” responses: support for legal abortion in all cases has slowly ticked up, from a low of 18% in 2010 and 2011 to the current 33%. Most recently, in March 2022, 28% said abortion should be legal in all cases. Conversely, the proportion of Americans who say abortion should be illegal in all cases has slowly declined, from 15% in 2010, and a high of 19% in 2014, to its current level of 8% (unchanged from 9% in March 2022). Republicans are least likely to say abortion should be legal in most or all cases (35%), but vast majorities of independents (69%) and Democrats (88%) say it should remain legal. Republicans have stayed consistent since 2010 (when 35% said it should be legal in most or all cases), and independents have moved only slightly (from 64% in 2010). Democrats have become considerably more supportive of abortion legality, however, with 71% saying it should be legal in most or all cases in 2010, compared with nearly nine in ten in mid-2022.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, Activism, and Gender
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9149. Creating More Inclusive Public Spaces: Structural Racism, Confederate Memorials, and Building for the Future

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Across the United States over the past decade, there have been heated discussions about Confederate statues and memorials in public spaces. Some cities have removed statues or renamed public spaces memorializing the Confederacy and Confederate leaders, while others remain embroiled in debate. This survey, conducted jointly by PRRI and E Pluribus Unum, examines the role of race and racism in how Americans view Confederate monuments, as well as American attitudes toward creating making public spaces more inclusive.
Topic:: Space, Memory, Racism, and Public Investment
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9150. 2019-2020 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for LGBTI Communities

Author:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:: The 2019–2020 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities is the most comprehensive report to date on the state of global funding for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) issues. This report documents data on over 15,800 grants awarded by 499 foundations, intermediary NGOs, and corporations and by 17 donor government and multilateral agencies over the two-year period of 2019–2020. LGBTI communities worldwide face urgent conditions, and grantmakers must mobilize together to financially resource the movements that can meet those needs. This report provides the data to make the case for strategic and impactful funding. Building on three previous editions, and now documenting a combined 8 years, this report provides detailed data on the distribution of LGBTI funding by geography, issue, strategy, population focus, and donor type, offering a tool for identifying trends, gaps, and opportunities in the rapidly changing landscape of LGBTI funding. This new edition documents a total of $576 million, showing that global LGBTI funding grew by 3%, or over $16 million (USD). Notably, this edition of the report also documents a 38% increase in the number of grantees.
Topic:: Civil Society, International Organization, LGBT+, NGOs, and Philanthropy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9151. Policy Journal by Women of Color: WCAPS Pipeline Fellows Publication

Author:: Adenikè Adegbidi, Beza Gebremariam, Caroline Mendoza, Clémence Kouamé, and Desiree Raymond
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: The WCAPS Pipeline Fellowship Program provides an opportunity for college and university students, as well as young adults and early career professionals, to develop a broad understanding of the different dimensions of peace, security, and foreign policy through engagement with WCAPS members, to include young, mid-career and senior level women and men. Oftentimes, the WCAPS Pipeline Fellowship program serves as an introduction to these career paths for young women of color and allows them to seamlessly integrate into the WCAPS community and beyond, thus creating the pipeline we aimed for. The program started locally in Washington D.C. and has since expanded to include participants from across the globe. This most recent cohort had participants from four continents. This dynamic group of women learned about a variety of topics to include Redefining National Security (RNS), emotional intelligence, Women Peace and Security (WPS), and international law as it relates to peacebuilding. WCAPS is very proud to present the policy papers these young women wrote, following months of rigorous research, coordination, and collaboration.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Migration, Race, Terrorism, United Nations, Water, Peacekeeping, Women, Food Security, Refugees, Conflict, Representation, Peace, Gender, and Femicide
Political Geography:: Latin America and Global Focus

9152. Beyond Border Security, Keeping Pace with Migrants, Refugees, and Climate Change

Author:: Marsha Michel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: Mexico is no longer just a transit country for migrants, it has become a destination country for those seeking refuge from their home country. According to Refugee International, in 2021 Mexico saw over 70 percent increase in asylum cases. In addition, Mexico is seeing a growing number of internally displaced Mexicans due to religion, human rights violations, natural disasters, and clashes between rival gangs. While this has been an issue since the 1970s, it’s only in 2019 that it's been getting the official attention of the Mexican government, human rights organizations as well as international organizations.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Migration, Border Control, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

9153. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Young Ambassadors Journal of Global Affairs

Author:: Shanel Wilson, Kyla Denwood, Mari Faines, Alonna Williams, and Mia Veal
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: The WCAPS Young Ambassadors Board presents to you the premiere version of the Young Ambassadors Journal of Global Affairs. The culmination of these five policy recommendations written by women of color covers a variety of issue areas that are relevant and researched and most importantly the passion areas for our members. These women are emerging experts and professionals in their fields of international development, national security, peace, and technology. Their contributions are representative of the areas of the world they want to improve and fortify the skills to do just that.
Topic:: Education, Foreign Exchange, Law Enforcement, Food Security, Internet, Police, Militarization, and Suburbanization
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, Nicaragua, North America, and United States of America

9154. Walking out of the Woods: EU Industrial Policy between the Energy Crisis and Decarbonisation

Author:: Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe is in the midst of a profound and complex energy crisis. This is not limited to the gas sector as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but involves all energy sources. French nuclear generation, for example, has fallen to a thirty-year low over the past year due to maintenance works and corrosion.[1] Due to extreme heat over summer, unprecedented drought has reduced hydropower generation as well as the possibility to import coal by river.[2] Oil has not been immune to turbulences either. The EU embargo on Russian crude oil finally began on 5 December 2022, coupled with a price cap at 60 US dollars/barrel generating uncertainty over future supply and prices. In February 2023, the second step of the embargo, on refined products, will kick in, with diesel potentially becoming the next chapter of the European energy crisis.[3]
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Institutions, Industry, Decarbonization, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

9155. Palestinian Flags and Warm Embraces: Politics and Arabism at the World Cup in Qatar

Author:: Francesco Belcastro
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The 2022 men’s football World Cup ended with Argentina’s victory over France, in what has already been dubbed by some fans as ‘the best final in world cup history’. While observers have praised the quality of football on display, the political dimension of the event has been a constant theme throughout the tournament. Arabism and solidarity with Palestine[1] have certainly been one of the key political aspects of the World Cup. But are the different expressions of Arab solidarity we have witnessed spontaneous and popular – in other words, do they reflect a strong popular feeling among Arab supporters, players and, in some cases, even leaders? Or are they limited manifestations of Arab identity and solidarity allowed within a controlled environment, or even worst, orchestrated events?
Topic:: Politics, Sports, Solidarity, World Cup, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Morocco, and Qatar

9156. Europe’s Area of Maritime Interest in Northeast Asia

Author:: Philip Shetler-Jones
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Participation in the monitoring of UN sanctions on North Korea is Europe’s most prominent operational contribution to Indo-Pacific security, but is also characterised by a fragmented, bilateral approach that contradicts the trajectory of recent European policies that strive for a more meaningful and coordinated investment in this area. A coordinated European presence in the region built around the sanctions monitoring task is within reach, and steps taken to achieve it would dramatically enhance the policy coherence and impact of European action on Northeast Asian security.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and North Korea

9157. The EU vis-à-vis Turmoil in Burkina Faso: Towards Europeanisation?

Author:: Francesca Lenzi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In late September 2022, Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in eight months. In the name of national security, Captain Ibrahim Traoré took control of the country on 30 September, deposing Paul-Henri Damiba, who had come to power through his own coup in January. Insecurity and the inability of the political class to deal with the jihadist threat are among the determining factors that led to two coups in such a short time. The coups unfolded in a context marked by competition between the European Union (EU) – initially led by France, the traditional European hegemon in the region – and Russia for influence in the Sahel.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Coup
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Europe, and Burkina Faso

9158. Exploring the Meaning of Borders in an Interconnected World

Author:: Amanda Ribichini
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The word “border” carries much complexity. It encompasses many facets of the human condition, from purely geographical locations to intangible beliefs and personal or individual traits. Yet, today, the term border is often manipulated, coupled with verbs or adjectives that aim to emphasise its importance or demonise its significance; the border has increasingly become a stigma, used indiscriminately by all political forces, with some calling for its demolition and others its strengthening. Frequently, borders tend to be considered as vestiges of a now deceased past or as a sort of chimera, a utopia whose return is preached as a solution to many everyday challenges. Yet, the term border is not just a word: the border exists, it is there, and there are people who inhabit it. By examining the case of the Italian-Slovenian border crossing in the Italian town of Gorizia, one can understand if the border itself has actually lost value in today’s world, or if it still retains traces of its past significance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Globalization, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, and Slovenia

9159. Italians and Defence at the Time of the Ukraine War: Winds of Change

Author:: Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In 2022, Italians have become more concerned about tensions between Russia and the West – but not more pro-American. They rather largely trust the European Union as a security actor, or lean towards an autonomous national defence policy – quite a change for the Italian public opinion. Italians are mostly supportive of military operations abroad and do not rule out the use of force, especially when national security is directly at stake, thus confirming the post-Cold War evolution of Italy’s strategic culture.[1] Notably, in the year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the majority in favour of defending a NATO ally under attack has risen by 9 per cent, showing an unprecedented awareness of the importance of Euro-Atlantic collective defence. These are the main novelties in Italians’ views of defence issues at a time marked by a full-fledged war in Europe and its multiple consequences for national interests, as highlighted by the 2022 edition of the periodic IAI-LAPS survey on Italy’s foreign and defence policy.[2]
Topic:: Defense Policy, Public Opinion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

9160. Lula’s Victory, the New Left and the Future of Latin America

Author:: Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The election of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva as the new president of Brazil, consolidates the advancement of a New Left in Latin America: a progressive movement, with strong popular and democratic content, promoting an agenda where the fight against poverty, inequality, climate change and respect for human rights is key.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Leftist Politics, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

9161. Are Small Modular Reactors Europe’s Energy Salvation?

Author:: Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Nuclear power has never lived up to expectations due to its enormous development, construction and maintenance costs, as well as safety concerns. However, governments committed to ambitious climate change targets have taken a second look at it. In Europe, for instance, in January this year, the European Commission added nuclear power to the list of projects eligible for green financing and, in July, included it in its taxonomy.[1] Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meanwhile, has sent fossil fuel prices soaring and put energy security at the top of the political agenda in Europe.
Topic:: Climate Change, Nuclear Power, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

9162. India–China Boundary Dispute: Progress on Disengagement, but De-escalation Remains Far-fetched

Author:: Amrita Jash
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 13 September 2022, India and China confirmed the completion of their respective disengagements from another friction point along their mutually contested border. The disengagement took place in eastern Ladakh, resulting in the withdrawal of troops from Patrolling Point (PP) 15 in the Gogra-Hot Springs area.[1] This was the fourth disengagement from the area, marking a step towards ending the 28-month stand-off in the eastern Ladakh ongoing since the military clashes of May 2020. This stand-off has not only been the longest but also one of the most violent confrontations between India and China. On 15 June 2020, the Galwan Valley clash led to multiple casualties, twenty on the Indian side, while less clarity exists on the numbers of Chinese deaths.[2] All in all the incident was the bloodiest military clash since the Sumdorong Chu crisis in 1986–87.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Borders, and Disengagement
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

9163. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. The Law, History, Politics and Geopolitics behind Africa’s Largest Hydropower Project

Author:: Francesca Caruso
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since 2011, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has provoked a diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, adding fuel to the already combustible geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Despite its technical aspects, the GERD dispute has over time become a multi-layered geopolitical crisis where a plethora of actors and dynamics have been influencing the ongoing negotiations. Protagonists are no longer only Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, and the resolution of the crisis is now dependent on factors beyond technical solutions. Moreover, the crisis seems to have become an instrument that the three countries are using to deal with issues of national legitimacy, territorial disputes and regional balance. However, while instrumentalisation can be politically expedient in the short term, all parties have an interest an equitable and regionally based, inclusive and cooperative agreement. In order to understand how multilateral organisations can contribute to the finding of an equitable and reasonable solution, a multi-layered analysis – on local, national and regional dynamics – needs to identify the main drivers for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Water, Infrastructure, Law, Geopolitics, Dams, Conflict Management, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt

9164. Egypt’s Decade of Water Woes

Author:: Hafsa Halawa
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Nile River dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan enters a new decade, this paper seeks to map out the Egyptian perspective of the dispute, through an outline of the interventions made, opportunities lost, and challenges posed by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Looking at Egypt’s domestic water security challenges, regional relationships and the tripartite process, and the role and influence of external actors, the paper describes a decade of diplomatic stagnation as entrenched nationalism creates forms of immovable policy on the River Nile.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Water, Dams, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

9165. The GERD from an Ethiopian Perspective: Actors, Interests and Instruments

Author:: Jesutimilehin O. Akamo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: For Ethiopia, proposals on sharing the Nile waters and the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) must demonstrate flexibility (that is, be legally non-binding) and distance from the order that existed before the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA, or Entebbe Agreement). The GERD represents a move by Ethiopia to enhance economic security, boost its resilience against drought and consolidate its newfound hydro-political influence towards ensuring equitable and reasonable use of the Nile waters by riparian states. Ethiopia has demonstrated intentionality and consistency in its Nile policy under which the GERD falls. The link between the GERD, Ethiopia’s internal crisis and its perception of an international bias tend to threaten the likelihood of a mutually agreed deal. However, building mutual trust, strategic concessions and de-internationalising the GERD talks to the barest minimum are necessary steps to break the stalemate.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Dams, Drought, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

9166. Russia’s Climate Action and Geopolitics of Energy Transition: The Uncertain and Unsettling Outlook following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Kamila Godzinska and Maria Pastukhova
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the outlook for Russia’s energy transition and created uncertainties on the global path towards net zero. In response to global economic shifts, Russia had begun taking steps towards decarbonisation, albeit without plans to depart from its hydrocarbon-based economic model in any substantial way. The new political, trade and financial environment induced by Russia’s act of aggression has damaged its potential to maintain the once-emerging momentum. Russia’s actions and the Western response are also reconfiguring global energy relations, with profound economic and geopolitical consequences that may, unless managed, undermine international cooperation on the energy transition and slow down progress on climate change mitigation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

9167. Italy’s Election and the Rise of Hard Right Conservativism

Author:: Andrea Dessì and Vassilis Ntousas
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Should the polling prove accurate, Italy will soon be governed by its most radical right-wing government since World War II. Come 25 September, a coalition of political parties – dominated by the hard-right and anti-migrant Brothers of Italy party (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI) and Matteo Salvini’s League (Lega) – appears poised to secure a clear, if not resounding, majority in parliament. This will return Italy to a right-wing government, the first since Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition collapsed amidst the risk of Italian bankruptcy back in 2011. Despite its neo-fascist roots, heading the polls with about 25 per cent of the vote is Giorgia Meloni’s FdI, the frontrunner to become the country’s first female premier and first far-right head of government in Italy’s Republican history.[1] Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Go Italy (Forza Italia) party are the other major members of the right-wing coalition, whose impact if elected will reverberate far beyond Italy. For Europe, the polls are another indication of the spread of hard-right conservativism, following the French National Front’s electoral gains over the past few years and the recent victory by the Sweden Democrats this September.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

9168. Italy’s Far-Right and the Migration Debate: Implications for Europe

Author:: Julian M. Campisi and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Following the collapse of Mario Draghi’s national unity government in July, Italy is set to elect a new parliament on 25 September 2022, the first general election since 2018. Grappling with a myriad of socio-economic and energy challenges, the next government will face significant hardship in turning the tide, with Italy widely expected to be governed by a right-wing conservative government at a time when all indications point to Italy moving into recession in 2023. A conservative coalition of far- and centre-right parties, led by Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI), the League (Lega) and Go Italy (Forza Italia) party, is expected to win a significant majority of seats in parliament. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing inflation and energy crisis have dominated the electoral campaign, other issues should not be overlooked, not least in light of their impact on domestic politics as well as broader Italy–EU relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

9169. Putin vs Monnet: European Resilience, Energy and the Ukraine War

Author:: Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Ukraine war escalates with no end in sight, Europe’s resilience is put to test. Nowhere is this clearer than in the energy sphere, where the crisis first created the perfect timing for Russia’s invasion and then became weaponised against Europe in the broader confrontation with the West. In this confrontation, two interpretations of resilience come to the fore: Vladimir Putin and Jean Monnet’s, with the former emphasising pain endurance and the latter transformation through crisis. The jury is out on whether Putin or Monnet will win the day, and whether and how the European Union will prove and strengthen its resilience. But at the height of this crisis, my bet today is squarely on Jean Monnet.
Topic:: Climate Change, Politics, European Union, Institutions, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

9170. NATO’s New Strategic Concept: Novelties and Priorities

Author:: Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: NATO’s new Strategic Concept provides a clear set of guidelines for the Alliance in a mid-term perspective. Adopted on 29 June in Madrid, the Concept outlines a number of priorities stemming from Russia’s war on Ukraine, but also puts forward relevant novelties concerning China and the Indo-Pacific. During the NATO Summit in Madrid, alliance members affirmed that Russia can no longer be considered a partner, effectively internalising the geopolitical earthquake represented by the return of a major conventional and multi-domain war on European soil.[1] The Strategic Concept also identifies deterrence and defence as the Alliance’s number one priority, in comparison to the other core tasks: crisis prevention and management and cooperative security.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

9171. Sense and Nonsense behind Energy Price Caps

Author:: Daniel Gros and Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In official circles at the highest level, from the G7 to the European Council, a tense debate is taking place on what to do about spiralling gas and oil prices, which have either broken or have come dangerously close to breaking record territory. In Europe, a special meeting of the European Council on energy was originally scheduled for the fall, but is now being brought forward, while the European Commission is working on an emergency plan to prepare for a complete cut-off of Russian gas. Energy prices dominate the agenda of our leaders. Yet it is a confused and often confusing debate that is worth unpacking.
Topic:: Climate Change, Oil, Gas, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

9172. European Defence: Time to Act

Author:: Alessandro Azzoni
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has renewed momentum on the long-standing debate on EU defence, convincing many that the time for concrete steps to meet this ambition – the building of a united European defence grounded in its own strategic and technological autonomy – has finally come. Talks have been ongoing for some 68 years – that is, since the French parliament sunk the European Defence Community project back in 1954. The manifest broadening of public consensus for the idea of European defence is not enough. Thorough technical assessments will be needed to identify priorities and strike an acceptable balance between reducing duplications, optimising expenses and the inevitable transfer of some elements of strategic and operational “sovereignty” in the military domain.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Defense Industry, Procurement, and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)
Political Geography:: Europe

9173. The De-Globalisation of Oil: Risks and Implications from the Politicisation of Energy Markets

Author:: Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The EU’s announced ban on Russian oil imports is a strong political measure that will heavily impact international energy markets, restricting the supply of 4.1 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil and derivates to a market which is a net importer of 10.72 mbd.[1] The EU’s ban, which is due to fully come into effect between December 2022 and February 2023, combined with the US’s previous ban of 600 thousand barrels a day (tbd), means that 4.7 mbd of Russian oil and derivatives are being removed from these high oil consuming markets (35.9 mbd in total). If we add the 1.3 mbd of oil that Iran has stopped producing due to US sanctions reintroduced in 2018, we reach a volume of 6 mbd of oil that is restricted or out of the market due to political decisions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the unprecedented sanctions and oil ban imposed on Moscow, combined with the previous oil sanctions against Iran, are fast advancing a new geopolitical reality: the de-globalisation of the international oil market.
Topic:: Oil, Sanctions, European Union, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

9174. The Russian Economy Is Muddling Through the Sanctions War

Author:: Oleg Buklemishev
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The transatlantic campaign of sanctions against Russia after its aggression of Ukraine is unprecedented in scale and scope, involving not only dozens of democratic states but also many non-state actors. It imposes considerable barriers and additional cost to the functioning of the Russian economy, which is bound to undertake deep restructuring with far-reaching consequences for production and consumption processes. The current appreciation of the rouble and inflationary slowdown are not signs of improvement but rather the direct effects of the stabilisation measures undertaken and, in fact, bode ill for further economic development. Numerous problems have started to surface this summer and optimistic assessments on the basis of initial resilience of the Russian economy look premature. Russia currently lacks a strategic plan of economic restructuring under the new environment. The future course of events will depend on whether the private sector leads this restructuring with minimal losses or the government imposes its normative prospective, tilting the result farther from economic equilibrium.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9175. Lebanon’s Perennial Limbo: A Paralysed System Teetering on the Brink

Author:: Giulia Gozzini
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of a catastrophic and seemingly endless downward spiral that began in 2019, a paralysing political stalemate has once again gripped Lebanon. Close to three months have passed since the Lebanese were called to the polls on 15 May, the first parliamentary elections held since the October 2019 revolution (thawra) and the 2020 Beirut blast. Yet, nothing seems to have changed. While the results did not bring about a significant political breakthrough, they did break the monopoly of traditional parties, with the election of 13 independent candidates associated with the popular protests of 2019.[1] This is a noticeable occurrence given that it was produced by a system which is tailor-made for the political élite to maintain the status quo. That said, the vote can hardly qualify as a victory of the so-called “forces of change”. Likewise, it would be unwise to claim – as many in the media did in the aftermath of the vote – that the results represent a defeat for the Shia Islamist party, Hezbollah.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

9176. The Killing of Al-Zawahiri and the Future of Al-Qaeda

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In the afternoon of 1 August, Joe Biden gave a speech from the White House confirming the killing of Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Afghanistan. According to senior sources from the administration, Zawahiri was killed by “a precise tailored airstrike” conducted at around 06:30 am local time in the Sherpur neighbourhood of Kabul.[1] The strike was carried out via two Hellfire missiles (allegedly, two R9X missiles) fired from a drone.[2] The area in which the attack was carried out is particularly significant: the Sherpur neighbourhood is located in a deeply protected area of the capital, in which many Taliban leaders now live. Al-Zawahiri was reportedly killed in the house owned by a top aide to senior Taliban leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani.[3]
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Al Qaeda, and Ayman al-Zawahiri
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

9177. Not Yet Time for Diplomacy. Lessons from Italy’s Ill-Conceived Peace Plan for Ukraine

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro and Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Few may have noticed, but Italy recently advanced its own diplomatic proposal for a resolution of the war in Ukraine. Rome’s ambitious peace plan[1] received little international recognition, although it was reportedly shared with the Quint – an informal consultation group comprising the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy – and formally presented to UN Secretary General António Guterres on 18 May 2022.[2] Crucially, the plan failed to impress the leaderships in both Ukraine[3] and Russia,[4] leading Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio to put it aside on the grounds that circumstances are not “ripe” for such an initiative.[5]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

9178. The Geopolitics of Clean Hydrogen – Opportunities and Challenges for Italy

Author:: Marco Giuli
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The emergence of clean hydrogen as an energy carrier promises to shape the future geography of the energy trade. Under growing contestation of interdependence, such a geography should be read through political lenses alongside commercial and technological ones. Generally, hydrogen is likely to reduce the geopolitical sensitivity of energy trade with respect to a fossil-fuel-based energy order by increasing the share of energy produced domestically, shifting geostrategic competition from a focus on grabbing resources to a focus on mastering technology and setting standards, and offering petrostates opportunities for economic diversification. Italy can exploit the opportunities offered by a hydrogen economy for enhancing its energy security and positioning in the regional energy trade. However, it should be careful with monitoring how geopolitical barriers such as regional instability may affect its hydrogen ambitions.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Trade, Hydrogen, Pipeline, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

9179. Can the West Afford to Let the World Go Hungry? Overcoming Challenges to Establishing a Humanitarian Corridor in the Black Sea

Author:: Isak Runarsson
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: While economic interdependencies do not prevent war, witnessed most recently by Russia’s naked war of conquest in Ukraine, the costs of war in a globalised world spread far and wide. Russia has taken the world’s food markets hostage by blockading Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. The resulting food price increases make a humanitarian crisis in the world’s poorest countries increasingly likely; this, in turn may lead to regime fragility and turmoil in the international system. The question of lifting the blockade by establishing a human corridor into the port of Odessa has recently been much discussed. There are challenges to any such effort, both strategic and operational. Yet a careful analysis reveals that the costs and risks of non-intervention are greater than the risks of intervening. An international naval force, co-led by the EU or its member states and Turkey is the best option for such a mission.
Topic:: Security, Food Security, Hunger, Maritime, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Black Sea

9180. North Korea’s Covid-19 Outbreak: An Opening for Engagement?

Author:: Lorenzo Mariani and Leonardo Bruni
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In January 2020, in response to the novel coronavirus, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) closed its borders and for the next two years claimed it had not experienced a single case of Covid-19. However, on 12 May 2022, North Korea disclosed a severe domestic outbreak and in the following weeks began reporting millions of cases of “fevers” and several deaths.[1] Pyongyang’s admission was initially interpreted as a veiled request for international assistance as the country is particularly vulnerable due to its zero per cent vaccination rate, inadequate healthcare system and chronic food insecurity. However, as with previous attempts during the height of the pandemic, offers of aid and vaccines from the Republic of Korea (ROK; South Korea), the US, international organisations (IOs) and multilateral initiatives like COVAX received no response; most likely due to suspicion of the aid being politicised.[2]
Topic:: Health, Foreign Aid, European Union, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

9181. Gender Issues in Russia

Author:: Marina Pisklakova-Parker
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Gender inequality in the Russian Federation has been growing in the past few years due to the lack of a clear state policy addressing the problem and a rise in propaganda of so-called “traditional values”, which are patriarchal attitudes towards role division for women and men. This has resulted in the increased vulnerability of women, including the growth of violence against women, discrimination at work and lack of opportunities in politics. As the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated, this patriarchal role division has made women even more vulnerable, doubling their load of household work and increasing domestic violence. Women’s organisations are at the forefront of providing services to victims of violence, educating the public and advocating for change. The recent so-called “special operation” in Ukraine has also demonstrated that women in Russia are actively protesting, organising themselves to help the Ukrainian people and building resistance.
Topic:: Women, Inequality, NGOs, COVID-19, Gender, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

9182. How Italians View Military Spending

Author:: Pierangelo Isernia, Rossella Borri, and Sergio Martini
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 16 March, a sweeping majority in the Italian Chamber of Deputies approved order 9/3491-A/35 committing the Italian government to raise the defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP.[1] Taken in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this decision strengthens Italy’s adherence to the commitment made by NATO countries in 2004 and reiterated at the 2014 NATO summit in Newport, Wales. The announcement comes after half a decade of increasing Italian defence spending. Having decreased from 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2010 to 1.2 per cent in 2015, Italy’s military expenditures started to grow again, reaching 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2020. This figure is still considerably lower than the UK’s 2.2 per cent or France’s 2 per cent, but higher than Germany’s and Spain’s 1.4 per cent.[2] To understand the broader context within which Italy has decided to renew its commitment to the NATO target, Italian public opinion should be factored in. In this respect, opinion polls conducted prior to the war in Ukraine can shed some light on Italian attitudes toward defence spending in general and the 2 per cent NATO pledge specifically.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Budget, and Military Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

9183. A Perfect Recipe for the Next Escalation on the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Lorenzo Mariani and Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: North Korea has been conducting regular missile tests as part of its weapons development programme over the past year. Put bluntly, this reflects the complete stalemate in denuclearisation talks following Biden’s election in the US and a stark reminder of the meagre results of the conciliatory strategy carried out by the former South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Hypersonic as well as short-range, intermediate-range and long-range ballistic missiles have all been part of this latest series of tests. On 24 March, North Korea claimed to have successfully launched a new modern intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), denominated Hwasong-17. While the entity of the vector has yet to be confirmed, if this allegation is proven true it would mark the first time an ICBM has been fired since 2017, breaking Pyongyang's self-imposed moratorium on such tests. The volley of tests has fuelled speculations that North Korea is gearing up for the launch of a larger weapon theoretically capable of reaching the US mainland.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and Conflict Management
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

9184. The US–Italy Economic Relations in a Divided World

Author:: Adriana Castagnoli
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In 2021, bilateral trade returned to the sustained pace it had prior to the Covid pandemic. Direct investment also grew – crucially, not just Italian investment in the United States but the other way round too. While Italy’s economic ties with Russia and China remain potential hotspots, Rome has never questioned its Atlantic orientation. Nevertheless, possible austerity policies following sanctions against Russia could spread social discontent that populist parties can exploit for consensus purposes in the 2023 general election, rekindling anti-Americanism rooted in different segments of Italian society.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Policy, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Italy, and United States of America

9185. Russian Youth: Their Attitude to the Ruling Elite and Political Processes

Author:: Denis Volkov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Young Russians are different from older generations. They are confident Internet users and thus have access to independent media and are exposed to free information and a variety of opinions. They show greater disillusionment with authorities, a greater degree of Westernisation of their tastes and more openness to the world. These differences are well observed in the results of the long-term sociological surveys undertaken by the Levada-Center, an independent polling centre in Moscow. Amidst the ongoing conflict between Russia and the West, Russian youth finds itself pressured between the Russian authorities on the one side, and sanctions from Western countries aimed at isolating Russia from the outside world.
Topic:: Sanctions, Public Opinion, Youth, Elites, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

9186. The EU and the Ukraine War: Making Sense of the Rise of a “Geopolitical” Union

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: By ordering Russian armed forces into Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has arguably made the greatest blunder of his twenty-two-year long rule. The Russian president seems to have underestimated not just Ukraine’s capacity to resist the invasion, but also the resolve of the United States and its partners to oppose it.[1] If that is indeed the case, the greatest surprise must have come from the European Union.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9187. Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU?

Author:: Margherita Bianchi and Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. Implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification. The Russian invasion has drastically changed the European energy paradigm, with the new political absolute being a fast reduction of Europe’s overdependence on Russian gas. Diversifying energy supplies away from Russia is a means to tighten the economic noose around Putin, seeking to deprive the Kremlin of billions in energy revenue given that Russia continues to export oil, gas and coal to Europe at very high prices.
Topic:: Security, Sanctions, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

9188. Russia–Ukraine Talks and the Indispensable Role of the US and Europe

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin’s imperialist war of conquest in Ukraine is about to enter its fifth week. Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine’s government and armed forces into submission through a poorly executed Blitzkrieg has morphed into a slow and ever more brutal three-front campaign. While Russian forces struggle to make strides in the north and east, they have been more successful in the south, where they are about to deprive Ukraine from access to the Sea of Azov.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

9189. Putting Development at the Centre of G20 Policy Agenda: Lessons for the T20

Author:: Daniele Fattibene and Alice Fill
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The G20 Development Working Group has gradually evolved throughout the years, following a haphazard and contradictory path. On the one hand, it has been progressively overshadowed by a sectoralisation of G20 activities, with several action tracks (i.e., the Finance Track) taking a more prominent role in the definition of the leaders’ priorities. On the other hand, its (unexploited) potential has increased due to the emergence of several global crises that have shown the importance of rekindling multilateral solutions at the G20 level. The T20 has a strong potential to boost G20 legitimacy on development cooperation worldwide, by drafting evidence-based and pragmatic policy proposals for the decision-makers. However, although often advocating for similar solutions, the Development Working Group and T20 have not necessarily fed into each other’s policy agendas, leading to misalignment and reducing their chances to influence other G20 tracks on crucial development issues such as development finance, food security or the global climate agenda.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Governance, G20, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9190. The Mian Channu Incident and the Enduring Risk of Nuclear Escalation between India and Pakistan

Author:: Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In an international context characterised by increasing concern over the risk of nuclear war triggered by the conflict in Ukraine, it is worth noting that incidents in other regions could also lead to nuclear escalation, either by design or miscalculation. A recent incident involving India and Pakistan is a case in point, albeit the event did not receive ample coverage, overshadowed by the news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, and India

9191. Constraints for Engagement with China: Dutch Ports and the BRI

Author:: Vera Kranenburg and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Rising US–China rivalry is shaping and constraining the relations between European states and China. The Netherlands is no exception and recent tensions with China have carried over to impact its trade and cooperative engagements with Beijing. The Netherlands never formally signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)[1] – the Chinese policy framework for international transport, communication and energy development. Nevertheless, the BRI is very relevant to the Netherlands, in particular for the Dutch port of Rotterdam and its ambition to preserve its role as a major logistical hub for trade with Europe.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, Engagement, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Netherlands, and United States of America

9192. A Scramble for Gas: Qatari LNG and EU Diversification Plans

Author:: Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Amidst a worsening geopolitical and energy crisis in Europe, the EU is scrambling to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as one component of its larger objective to reduce its overdependence on Russian gas. In 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia (140 bcm via pipeline and 15 bcm of LNG). Under its REPowerEU initiative, the European Commission aims to increase LNG imports to replace 50 bcm of Russian gas by the end of 2022.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Diversification, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Qatar

9193. The Implications of the Ukraine War for Israel

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: For Israel, this is evidence that its self-reliance doctrine must be nourished with no illusions about foreign support in times of crisis. Moreover, Turkey probably sees NATO more positively since it borders Russia, pushing Ankara toward the West.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

9194. Vienna: A return to Ben-Gurion’s WW2 Dual Strategy?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is time to revive the spirit of Ben-Gurion’s famous dictum from the days of WWII regarding the stance toward the British: “We will fight the war as if there were no White Paper, and we will fight the White Paper as if there were no war.” This makes sense concerning Israel’s dilemma towards the US in the context of the renewal of the JCPOA.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

9195. Ukraine could have Repercussions for Syrian Regime, Israel

Author:: Marta Furlan
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The movement of Syrian fighters to Ukraine will significantly impact Syria’s internal dynamics, and Israel needs to monitor the situation closely.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

9196. The “New Uzbekistan”: Turkey’s New Partner in the Pan-Turkist Organization of Turkic States

Author:: Hay Eytan Cohan Yanaroack
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Tashkent’s increasingly critical approach toward Russia and its deepening role in the Organization of Turkic States has positioned the country as Ankara’s most important bridgehead in Central Asia.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey

9197. The Roots of Israel’s Diplomatic Revolution

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The latest diplomatic moves demonstrate that despite recent events in Jerusalem, Israel has thwarted the Palestinian plan to force it into diplomatic isolation.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9198. The differences between Western and non-Western US allies in the Ukraine war

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: For mid-level regional powers, avoiding non-essential friction with a major power like Russia is seen as an imperative, particularly in a situation where consistent support from their US patron is by no means a given.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

9199. Japan and the War in Ukraine

Author:: Eyal Ben-Ari
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Two weeks after the war began, Japan announced that its new National Security Strategy scheduled to be published this year would recategorize Russia from “partner” to “security challenge,” thus placing it alongside China and North Korea.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Europe, and Asia

9200. Israel Must Adjust its Ukraine Policy

Author:: Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The difficulties of the Russian military on the battlefield increase the possibility that in the coming weeks, Moscow will expand the fighting as part of preparations for a long-term military campaign.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

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