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9001. Savings transition in Asia: Unity in diversity

Author:
Prema-chandra Athukorala and Wanissa Suanin
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the national savings behaviour in the process of economic growth through a comparative analysis of countries in developing Asia from a historical perspective. Developing Asia provides an ideal laboratory for the study with considerable differences in the savings behaviour among countries and over time within individual countries, notwithstanding the ‘model saver’ image based on the average savings rate. The empirical analysis distinguishes between private and government savings rates, with specific emphasis on the former. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with the view of ‘virtuous circle’ between growth and savings, with growth initiating the savings transition. No evidence to suggest that a prior phase of promoting savings through specific policy initiatives is needed to initiate the process of growth and structural transformation. The private savings rate is associated positively with per capita gross domestic product, export orientation, and foreign resource inflows and negatively with the young dependency ratio of the population and domestic credit availability.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Exports, Savings, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:
Asia

9002. The impact of COVID-19 on urban informal workers in Maputo

Author:
Nilifer Anaç, Eva-Maria Egger, Sam Jones, Ricardo Santos, and Alex Warren-Rodriguez
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Informal self-employed traders in developing countries are vulnerable to shocks as they often lack access to social insurance or formal finance. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these urban traders in the capital of Mozambique, Maputo. Drawing on longitudinal phone survey data over six months, we find they experienced significant negative shocks to earnings, leading to a reduction in savings as well as worsening food security and assets. Individuals simultaneously affected by a municipal policy to remove informal traders from a central market were hit particularly hard as they lost their clients and market stalls. We simulate that a cash transfer equivalent to the government’s proposed COVID-19 response would have significantly buffered these shocks. The findings point to the need for a more shock-responsive social protection system, easy access to liquidity and provision of market infrastructure for informal traders.
Topic:
Urban, Trade, COVID-19, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

9003. Trust as state capacity: The political economy of compliance

Author:
Timothy Besley and Sacha Dray
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the link between trust in government, policy-making, and compliance. It focuses on a specific channel whereby citizens who are convinced that a policy is worthwhile are more motivated to comply with it. This in turn reduces the government’s cost of implementing a policy and may also increase the set of feasible policies. Thus, state capacity is greater when citizens trust their government. The paper discusses alternative approaches to modelling the origins of trust, especially the link to the design of political institutions. We then provide empirical evidence consistent with the model’s findings that compliance is increasing in trust using the Integrated Values Survey and voluntary compliance during COVID-19 in the UK. We also show that countries with high levels of citizen trust in government were more likely to implement policies requiring voluntary compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper suggests that trust in government can play a role in building and expanding state capacities.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, Capacity, Compliance, and Trust
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9004. The determinants of domestic saving in Kenya

Author:
Rodgers Musamali, Cecilia Mutia, and Rose Ngugi
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The savings–growth nexus is widely acknowledged, both in policy and in the literature. But Kenya’s numerous policy initiatives to encourage savings mobilization are yet to yield the expected outcomes. This paper identifies the key drivers of domestic saving in Kenya, exploiting fintech as an alternative channel for savings mobilization, and drawing lessons from the Kenyan experience so far. Using data from various sources, and employing an autoregressive distributive lag estimation model, we find that in the long run, private saving is positively and significantly influenced by the per capita income growth rate, inflation, and age dependency ratio, and negatively influenced by the public saving rate and terms of trade. National saving is positively and significantly influenced by the per capita income growth rate, inflation, and private sector credit growth rates in the long run. Wealth and deposit rates negatively influence national saving. Based on these findings, we recommend the following interventions to grow savings in Kenya: creating decent employment opportunities to enhance income growth; providing sustained financial development with a focus on savings mobilization; creating an enabling environment for the private sector; taking advantage of Kenya’s young population; exploiting mobile money platforms to boost savings. Moreover, households show targeted saving behaviour where they accumulate financial savings and then transform them into savings in kind. Therefore, accounting for savings should go beyond the traditional focus on bank deposits and incorporate savings held in other forms. Households also use non-formal platforms for saving, and we suggest that existing barriers to formal saving platforms be removed to direct more saving into formal channels.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Saving, Income, and Fintech
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

9005. Furthering LGBTIQ+ Inclusion and Rights through Feminist Foreign Policy

Author:
Elise Stephenson, Jack Hayes, and Matcha Phorn-In
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
The problem with international development is that some human rights defenders are sexist, some feminists are transphobic and homophobic, and some LGBTIQ+ advocates racist
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Feminism, LGBT+, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9006. The intersection of Human Rights and Feminist Foreign Policy

Author:
Leanna Smith
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
As the failure of long-standing institutions and structures leaves nations and multilateral systems running out of options, a new foreign policy model – one that focuses on local and indigenous knowledge; engages civil society; has a commitment to peace, to empathy over sovereignty; and is serious about justice, and inclusion – may be starting to look viable, even for those reluctant to give up their entrenched systemic and institutional power and the associated privileges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Feminism, and Intersectionality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9007. Tax provisioning by extractive industry multinational subsidiaries

Author:
Khanindra Ch. Das
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Extractive industries are spread across mining of metal and minerals, oil and gas, among others. Multinationals in these sectors are confronted with different challenges ranging from corruption, political risk, economic uncertainty, sunk costs, and the long-gestation periods to execute projects. As a result, tax payment behaviour of subsidiaries in the extractive sector could be dependent not only on these factors, but also on the life cycle of the subsidiary, profitability, and holding structure. Furthermore, emerging economy multinationals in the extractive industries could be state-owned and may invest in foreign subsidiaries for strategic reasons. We examine tax provision in host countries by India’s multinational subsidiaries in the extractive industry. Panel data analysis is carried out for the period 2010–20. It is found that tax provision remains lower in the initial years of subsidiary life and increases with the sustenance of subsidiary in the host country for a longer period. In addition, subsidiaries of public sector enterprises are found to have higher tax provisions than their private counterparts. When it comes to the determinants, economic policy uncertainty, corruption, and political stability are found to significantly affect tax provision.
Topic:
Corruption, Political stability, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, Public Sector, Extractive Industries, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

9008. Marriage market responses in the wake of a natural disaster in India

Author:
Shreyasee Das and Shatanjaya Dasgupta
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the 2001 Gujarat earthquake on age at marriage and other assortative matching outcomes. Using the 2004–05 wave of the India Human Development Survey and employing a difference-in-differences strategy, we document that the earthquake reduced the age at marriage for both men and women and decreased the likelihood of women marrying into wealthier households. Additionally, we find no changes in matching by educational status or in the likelihood of intra-caste and out-of-village marriages. The results are driven by districts that were severely affected by the earthquake in terms of deaths and destruction. Our conjecture is that the negative economic shock pushed parents to marry off their daughters early to save on dowry expenditures. We confirm this underlying mechanism by using a proxy for dowry payments. Our results highlight how the institution of marriage can induce long-lasting demographic changes after a natural disaster.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Marriage, Earthquake, and Dowry
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

9009. Agricultural risks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and farm household welfare and diversification strategies in Africa

Author:
Abdul Malik Iddrisu, Alhassan Abdul-Wakeel Karakara, and Evans S. Osabuohien
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Agricultural activities in many African countries are bedevilled by a range of risk factors. Using micro-level household datasets from a range of countries in Africa, we examine the drivers of agricultural risks, while exploring the role of context as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household welfare, with a focus on farm households relative to their non-farm counterparts. We demonstrate that the probability of experiencing risks related to agriculture is significantly influenced by a range of individual- and farm-level/contextual factors, with these effects showing considerable variations across contexts and countries in Africa. We also find that farm households witnessed important reductions in their incomes during the COVID-19 period in Uganda. The study contributes to the design of evidence-based approaches to reducing farmers’ vulnerabilities to agricultural risks and pandemic-related shocks.
Topic:
Agriculture, Welfare, COVID-19, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa

9010. The effect of wage subsidies on job retention: Evidence from South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:
Timothy Köhler, Robert Hill, and Haroon Bhorat
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Wage subsidies have served as a primary labour market policy used around the world to mitigate job losses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, where unemployment is among the highest globally, the Temporary Employer–Employee Relief Scheme supported millions of workers in a far-reaching and progressive manner. We make use of unique labour force panel data to estimate the causal effect of the policy on short-term job retention among formal private sector workers, who represent the majority of workers in the country, by exploiting a temporary institutional eligibility detail and estimating a difference-in-differences model. We find that the policy increased the probability of remaining employed by 16 percentage points in the short-term. This finding holds when subjected to several robustness tests. We further estimate heterogeneous and progressive effects across the wage distribution with larger effects observed for lower-wage workers, against a backdrop of regressively distributed job loss in the country. Our analysis provides evidence on the role of wage subsidies in the mitigation of job loss during crises in developing countries.
Topic:
Employment, Wage Subsidies, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Job Loss
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

9011. Unravelling Africa’s raw material footprints and their drivers

Author:
Albert Kwame Osei-Owusu, Michael Danquah, and Edgar Towa
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper applies an environmentally extended input–output analysis, leveraging the Eora database, to estimate the global raw material footprints of 51 African nations from 1995 to 2015. It employs least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and panel regression models to quantify the effects of diverse variables on Africa’s raw material footprints. The findings show that the raw material footprints of Africa’s production and consumption soared by 41 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, from 1995 to 2015, mainly driven by biomass and construction materials. They show that Africa outsources 25 per cent of its raw material footprints from consumption, while over 60 per cent of its footprints from production arise from its exports. Our findings beckon African governments to reduce the excessive focus on exploitation and concentrate on combatting corruption and extreme rent-seeking while decoupling Africa’s raw material footprints from rising public debt, carbon emissions, income levels, and population.
Topic:
Economics, Carbon Emissions, Public Debt, Income, Raw Materials, and Input-Output Analysis
Political Geography:
Africa

9012. So close and yet so far: the ability of mandatory disclosure rules to crack down on offshore tax evasion

Author:
Elisa Casi, Mohammed Mardan, and Rohit Reddy Muddasani
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We study the short-term effect of the introduction of the mandatory disclosure programme for aggressive tax arrangements by focusing on the one introduced in May 2018 under Council Directive 2018/288/EU (or DAC6). Employing bilateral data on cross-border deposits, we study the effect of this new disclosure requirement on cross-border tax evasion. Our results show a reduction of cross-border deposits in EU countries with strong enforcement, captured by large monetary penalties for misreporting. At the same time, we document a relocation of income and wealth to countries with limited intermediary reporting obligations. Finally, we detect a shortterm increase of US$14 billion in cross-border deposits held in countries offering citizenship/residence by investment programmes, suggesting the use of these schemes as regulatory arbitrage to circumvent the disclosure mandated under DAC6. We provide timely and relevant evidence contributing to the debate on international administrative cooperation to reduce cross-border tax evasion.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Banking, Tax Evasion, and Administrative Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

9013. A model to explain the impact of government revenue on the quality of governance and the SDGs

Author:
Stephen G. Hall and Bernadette O'Hare
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper empirically investigates the link between the level of government revenue per capita and six indicators of quality of governance in an unbalanced panel data set consisting of all countries in the world (217) using data from 1980 to 2020. It uses single-equation GMM techniques and a VAR and VECM approach to investigate this link. The results show a strong effect over time whereby an increase in government revenue leads to a steady improvement in governance. These findings suggest an important virtuous circle between government revenue and governance, indicating that additional government revenue can significantly impact the Sustainable Development Goals more than our previous work has suggested.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9014. Does aid fragmentation affect tax revenue dynamics in developing countries? Observations with new tax data

Author:
Ali Compaoré and Abrams M. E. Tagem
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
There exists a burgeoning empirical literature on the impact of aid fragmentation on development outcomes in aid-receiving countries, with it being widely recognized that aid fragmentation is deleterious. This paper adds to the existing literature by estimating the impact of aid fragmentation on tax revenue mobilization in developing countries. Drawing on the popular system generalized method of moments technique to counter endogeneity issues, this study focuses on a sample of 90 developing countries covering the period from 2000 to 2020. We show that aid fragmentation, measured by the Herfindahl index, has a significant negative impact on recipient countries’ tax revenue ratios, an impact that is not mitigated by the level of institutional quality. The paper also explores the impact of aid fragmentation on tax structure and finds convincing evidence that direct taxes, particularly corporate income taxes, are the most affected. Value-added tax is the only indirect tax affected by aid fragmentation.
Topic:
Development, Tax Systems, Institutions, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9015. Employer power and employment in developing countries

Author:
Nancy H. Chau, Ravi Kanbur, and Vidhya Soundararajan
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The issue of employer power is underemphasized in the development literature. The default model is usually one of competitive labour markets. This assumption matters for analysis and policy prescription. There is growing evidence that the competitive labour markets assumption is not valid for employment in developing countries. Our objective in this paper is to review this evidence, to present theoretical and policy perspectives that follow from it, and to highlight areas for further research.
Topic:
Development, Employment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9016. Fintech in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Njuguna Ndung'u
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper traces the development of fintech in sub-Saharan Africa, its evolution over time, and the unfolding benefits attained at each stage of its adoption and market evolution. From the onset, fintechs have revolutionized retail electronic payment systems—a revolution that has evolved into a technological platform to manage micro-savers’ accounts, virtual savings and credit systems, public financial management, and cross-border remittances, and has led to the adoption of new monetary policy frameworks. The uptake of fintech products has led to increased financial inclusion for underserved and unserved populations, improvement of welfare, and the efficient and cost-effective provision of services across all sectors of the economy. The paper also outlines the challenges that persist and need to be addressed to allow the rapid uptake of fintech products and solutions in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper concludes that the fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by fintech, has the potential to propel the continent to higher levels of savings, investments, employment, and inclusive growth, provided an appropriate legal and regulatory framework is put in place and resources are channelled for sufficient infrastructural development.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Inclusion, Savings, and Fintech
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

9017. Gender preference at birth: A new measure for son preference based on stated preferences and observed measures of parents’ fertility decisions

Author:
Mehwish Ali, Ashton de Silva, Sarah Sinclair, and Ankita Mishra
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Investigating preference for sons is a continuing focal area of development economics and demographic research. Son preference presents a challenge in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals of ‘no poverty’, ‘good health and wellbeing’, and ‘gender equality’ by 2030. It is thus important to investigate son preference to inform policy-makers of the potential challenges in achieving these goals. Inaccurate interpretation of the mechanisms of son preference could misinform policy analysis and result in unintended consequences. Existing measures including sex ratios and gender composition of children do not reflect the true extent of son preference in high fertility countries such as Pakistan, where the success of policy action is limited and significant barriers to sex-selective technologies exist. Given the likely impact of son preference on fertility behaviour in Pakistan, accurate measurement of the forms this gender bias can take is necessary to appropriately gauge the influence of son preference on the fertility outcomes. The limited capacity of existing measures to accurately depict son preference in countries with high fertility combined with limited demarcation between pre- and post-birth son preference warrants development of a new measure for son preference to evaluate its effects. In this paper, a new measure of son preference called ‘gender preferences at birth’ (GPB) is presented. GPB combines stated fertility preferences and observed fertility outcomes to acknowledge that households in countries with high fertility and low contraception usage have less control over their fertility decisions.
Topic:
Economics, Sustainable Development Goals, Welfare, Family Planning, Fertility, and Gender
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Global Focus

9018. Determinants of corporate cash holdings in South Africa

Author:
Ewa Karwowski, Hanna Szymborska, Keagile Lesame, and Tlhologelo Thoka
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Globally, corporate cash holdings have risen since the 1980s. In South Africa, some commentators have accused corporations of engaging in an ‘investment strike’, while others see corporate liquidity as a precaution against systemic uncertainty. We use the unique South African Revenue Service/National Treasury firm-level dataset to scrutinize corporate liquidity, using panel analysis. Relative to GDP, corporate cash and liquidity holdings have not increased between 2010 and 2017. However, corporate cash is high in international comparison and has grown at the firm level. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that companies are engaging in an investment strike. Cash and liquidity are shaped by idiosyncratic and sectoral risk factors. In the short run, heightened uncertainty might reduce corporate cash and liquidity as firms struggle to adjust to an unexpected economic situation. In the medium run, we find a strong association between political uncertainty and corporate cash and liquidity holdings.
Topic:
Economics, Corporations, Liquidity, and Cash
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Global Focus

9019. Standardization and ethnocracy in Sri Lanka

Author:
Neil DeVotta
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Standardization was the scheme that replaced meritocracy in Sri Lanka education, with positive discrimination to increase the majority Sinhalese community’s university enrolment. It did so by minimizing better-qualified minority Tamils’ university entry, even as the quest for Tamil separatism was gaining ground. The government claimed the scheme was justified to create a more balanced representation in science-based university fields, but it was among the policies that contributed to the island becoming an ethnocracy. While standardization was later discarded, its legacy continues thanks to the district quota system it fostered and the inequalities it helped to cement between ethnic groups. Ultimately, standardization did not merely complicate existing inequalities; it also contributed to anomie and substandard professionalism within the educational and governmental sectors. A path dependence explanation helps us to better understand why the policy was instituted, and why district quotas continue to operate.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Ethnicity, Separatism, Standardization, Path Dependency, and Ethnocracy
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

9020. Reigniting labour productivity growth in developing countries: Do structural reforms matter?

Author:
Kwamivi Gomado
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
While the negative effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on labour productivity are still fresh in people’s minds, the COVID-19 pandemic raises concerns that productivity will continue to decline. To boost labour productivity and regain economic performance, there is an empirical consensus on the role of structural reforms that allows an efficient reallocation of resources such as labour by reducing rigidities in markets. This study analyses the role of certain structural reforms in improving labour productivity in 35 developing countries over the period of 1990–2014. From the local projection method, our results show that structural reforms have a positive impact on productivity growth in the short and medium terms. The results also illustrate that reforms induce an efficient reallocation of resources within but not between sectors. Taking the business cycle into account in estimates shows that structural reforms stimulate labour productivity growth better in periods of low economic growth.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, Reform, Business, Economic Growth, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9021. Inclusion amid ethnic inequality: Insights from Brazil’s social protection system

Author:
Natasha Borges Sugiyama
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Policy frames in Brazil have long run up against conflicting visions and understandings about the causes and consequences of group-based inequality. This paper argues that a class-based lens has dominated the social protection framework. In recent years, political leaders have framed social policy measures along ‘universal’ class lines with the aim of improving poverty and wellbeing. This framing is reflective of Brazil’s national narrative on race relations and the idea that class and employment status have been the most salient barriers to social welfare protections. Brazil’s widely well-regarded anti-poverty conditional cash transfer programme, Bolsa Família (2003–21), is emblematic of the country’s universal and ‘race-blind’ approach to social policy. But given the strong correlation in Brazil between ethnicity and income, social protection policies such as the Bolsa Família have indirectly targeted vulnerable black and brown citizens. The analysis addresses how social policy has contributed advances to wellbeing in general and for Afro-Brazilians. A comparative perspective on social welfare systems offers important lessons on how poverty relief can further human development and enhance agency. Future reformers can learn from Brazil’s pursuit of poverty reduction alongside administrative procedures that identify vulnerable groups, as a strategy to address intersectional inequalities of ethnicity and class.
Topic:
Poverty, Race, Inequality, and Welfare
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

9022. The legal basis for affirmative action in India

Author:
Kiruba Munusamy
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The affirmative action policy in India came into practice because of the generations of struggle undergone by the untouchable castes and other backward classes, who were historically excluded from education and administration. As society changed, it was inevitable that the vulnerable groups who had so far been forgotten in terms of social justice should be ‘included’. However, this paper finds that, instead of recognizing this need the judiciary continued to apply illogical limitations and age-old precedents that disrupted the implementation of affirmative action. Although the legal basis of affirmative action comes from the Constitution of India itself, which provides for reservation and enables States to make laws to that end, judicial interference has necessitated ongoing legislative changes to keep the needed affirmative action on track. Progress has been made, but it is often a case of ‘two steps forward, one step back’, and many issues, such as the ceiling on reservations and the categories to be included in it, remain to be resolved.
Topic:
Inequality, Social Justice, Judiciary, and Affirmative Action
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

9023. Return migration and entrepreneurship in Cameroon

Author:
Sévérin Tamwo, Ghislain Stéphane, Gandjon Fankem, and Dieudonné Taka
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the determinants of the entrepreneurial behaviour of returnees to Cameroon based on original survey data from 2012. Contrary to the existing literature, we focus on the skills received from abroad without omitting the effect of savings. We distinguish between three types of competences related to qualifications. We also differentiate between the probability of starting a business in the primary sector and the probability of starting a business in the tertiary sector. The main results, obtained from a probit model, show that: (i) degrees and qualifications and qualifications acquired abroad do not positively influence the probability of migrants to undertake a new activity once back home; in contrast, accumulated savings, captured by the time spent abroad, have a positive influence; (ii) other qualifications have no influence on the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants; and (iii) the entrepreneurial behaviour of return migrants is not oriented towards the primary sector but rather towards the tertiary sector. These results are robust when we account for endogeneity.
Topic:
Migration, Entrepreneurship, Economy, and Skills
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

9024. Illicit financial flows and country-by-country reporting in extractive industries

Author:
Saila Stausholm, Petr Janský, and Marek Šedivý
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Economic data are important in governing the international political economy. Some of the most widely used macro statistics risk being undermined by systematic misalignment in reporting of economic activity due to illicit financial flows, as well as tax-minimizing financial transactions by multinational corporations. Measuring these misalignments may prove a way to correct old statistical standards, if adequate data can be obtained. We evaluate whether new transparency and reporting regimes that require country-by-country reporting by multinational corporations could prove a feasible way to appropriate the amount of tax avoidance and use these figures to correct macro statistics. We evaluate the existing data for two of the standards through previous literature and provide original analysis of a third standard that is applied to the extractive industries. We find that the standards lack coherence and workability, and that particularly the extractive industry standard falls short of enabling thorough research on profit reporting and taxmotivated misalignments by multinational corporations.
Topic:
Economics, Tax Evasion, Extractive Industries, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9025. Narrative Warfare: How the Kremlin and Russian news outlets justified a war of aggression against Ukraine

Author:
Nika Aleksejeva and Andy Carvin
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In the weeks and months leading up to Russia invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Kremlin and pro-Kremlin media employed false and misleading narratives to justify military action against Ukraine, mask the Kremlin’s operational planning, and deny any responsibility for the coming war. Collectively, these narratives served as Vladimir Putin’s casus belli to engage in a war of aggression against Ukraine. To research this report, the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) identified recurring pro-Kremlin narratives over two timeframes: the 2014–2021 interwar period and the seventy days leading up to the 2022 invasion. For the interwar period, we reviewed more than 350 fact-checks of pro-Kremlin disinformation. We then collected more than ten thousand examples of false and misleading narratives published by fourteen pro-Kremlin outlets over the seventy-day pre-invasion period. To understand how these narratives evolved, we catalogued them by themes, sub-narratives, and relationships to pre-invasion escalatory events. This allowed us to produce a timeline of false and misleading Kremlin narratives encompassing the year leading to the invasion, showing how Russia weaponized these narratives as its actions on the ground escalated toward war.
Topic:
News Analysis, Conflict, Narrative, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9026. International development cooperation as a global governance policy

Author:
Philippe Andre Orliange and Thomas Zaratiegui
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The three major international texts adopted in 2015 -Addis Ababa Action Agenda on financing for development, 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Paris Climate Agreement- place national public policies and actors at the heart of international development cooperation (IDC). By bringing IDC closer to national institutions, particularly development banks, and taking it further away from traditional foreign policy, this shift has challenged longheld IDC narratives and structures, both among developed and developing countries. It has also laid the foundations for a degree of structured and universal accountability within the international development cooperation system, setting the stage for a wider shift within global governance.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Governance, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9027. Back to sovereignty? Policy space in investor-State dispute settlement

Author:
Magdalena Bas
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The paper examines how investor-State dispute settlement mechanisms -included in international investment agreements- are able to condition national policy space, even when foreign investors question measures regarding human rights, public health, or environmental protection. It also intends to identify and explain the new trends in international investment agreements that illustrate different ways out the investor-State dispute settlement labyrinth. In order to achieve the objectives, a qualitative documentary research was conducted, based on secondary sources. The new trends in international investment agreements cartography show the emergence of a new concept of sovereignty rooted in the defense of policy space -“regulatory sovereignty”.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Governance, Law, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9028. International Law and Order Enforcement: Police Assistance Programs and Politics in US-Brazil Relations

Author:
Priscila Villela
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Police Assistance programs have been a permanent part of US foreign policy towards Latin America, with Brazil being one of the most important beneficiaries. Throughout their history, they have been oriented according to changing agendas, from anticommunism to the war on drugs. Based on documentary sources and specialized literature, we analyze the politics of US policing in Brazil, reconstituting agendas and interests that motivated police assistance programs through the lens of critical police studies in IR. In doing so, we demonstrate that police cooperation is historically a crucial part of US-Brazil bilateral relations, despite the unfrequent prominence in the literature.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Law, Bilateral Relations, and Police
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

9029. “Brazilian Foreign Policy, Multilateral Institutions and Power Relations: an Interview with Ambassador Rubens Ricupero”

Author:
Alexandra de Mello e Silva, Flavia de Campos Mello, Leticia Pinheiro, and Monica Herz
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
This interview stems from the interest of four Brazilian scholars in contributing to the study of foreign policy through dialogue with practitioners. As the study about foreign policy becomes more reflexive and critical, we turned to a Brazilian diplomat, Rubens Ricupero, who based on his vast and often difficult experience, has written about his interactions with the international world and strived to establish a dialogue with the academic world. Between May and July 2021, Ambassador Ricupero shared with us his views on the difficulties and possibilities of dialogue regarding multilateral agreements and institutions, such as the GATT and the UNCTAD
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Strategic Interests, and Power
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

9030. “One Single Agriculture”: Dismantling Policies and Silencing Peasant Family Farmers in Brazilian Foreign Policy (2016-2022)

Author:
Thiago Lima, Laura Trajber Waisbich, and Lizandra Serafim
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Brazil experienced the opening-up and democratization of its foreign policymaking in the last decades, but since 2016 a wave of bureaucratic reforms sought to reverse that process. This paper contributes to understanding this phenomenon by looking at the agri-food dimension of Brazilian foreign policy. Through the analysis of official documental and discursive data, we discuss successive symbolic-discursive, as well as policy-institutional governmental efforts to close-off foreign policymaking to peasant family farmers and their interests. The study reveals changing patterns in state-society interfaces, and contributes to bridging the fields of Foreign Policy Analysis, Policy Dismantling and Social Participation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Farming, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

9031. When only China wants to play: Institutional turmoil and Chinese investment in Brazil

Author:
Niels Sondergaard, Ana Flavia Barros-Platiau, and Hyeyoon Park
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The political and institutional crisis in Brazil from 2015, fueled largely by corruption probes and lawfare, had severe repercussions within the Brazilian construction and energy sectors. While many international investors withdrew from Brazil in this period, Chinese investment surged. This article accounts for the particular characteristics of Chinese investments, such as sectorial complementarities, risk assessment, market size attraction, and state-drivenness, which may explain this development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Investment, and Institutions
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

9032. Marriage of convenience, love at first sight? A brief manual for teaching international relations in Brazil and beyond

Author:
Andrea Quirino Steiner, Elia Elisa Cia Alves, and Cristin a Carvalho Pacheco
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Professors may start teaching either out of love or out of convenience, with limited resources. This article provides a brief manual for planning, designing and implementing PS&IR courses. We discuss syllabi, from the basics to the inclusion of transversal topics, then present eight active learning strategies plus traditional lectures, and debate assessments. Although we consider the context of new teachers within Brazilian universities, we believe this is useful for professors from all countries and levels of experience. Thereby, we provide practical advice for teachers to live happily ever after in their pedagogical love story (even if it did not start that way).
Topic:
International Relations, Family, Marriage, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

9033. BRICS and Global Health Diplomacy in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Situating BRICS’ diplomacy within the prevailing global health governance context

Author:
Candice Moore
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
BRICS have been cast as a bloc with the potential to make significant changes in Global Health. The management of the Covid-19 pandemic has shown divisions in the bloc and the limits of its ability to formulate policies or even act upon previously agreed positions. This paper employs an examination of BRICS Health Ministerial declarations and an analysis of power in International Relations to reflect on BRICS’ Global Health diplomacy during the Covid-19 pandemic, covering the key questions of vaccine research and development, vaccine nationalism, and travel bans. It finds that multiple dimensions of power matter in Global Health leadership.
Topic:
Health, International Cooperation, Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

9034. Borders and transit countries: the re-territorialization of Middle East pipelines

Author:
Nino Luis Maduerira
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Following the discovery of vast oil reserves in the Persian Gulf region, the Middle East became the main hub for the expansion and development of western pipeline technology. Contrary to the borderless world described in some accounts of globalization, what is observed after 1956 is the establishment of hard political borders, directly under the oversight of national governments, for pipeline deployment with minimal boundary crossings. In the Middle East, this minimal permeability of frontiers entailed fewer risks compared with the uncertainties arising from having to cross several countries: the sovereign state thus seemed the best container for oil transportation. The conclusion puts forward the concept of re-territorialization to explain the multi-level changes that took place, entailing shifts in geography, in business structures and in international relations.
Topic:
Oil, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Borders, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East

9035. South America at the core of Brazilian foreign policy during Bolsonaro’s administration (2019-2022)

Author:
Miriam Gomes Saraiva
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The arrival of Jair Bolsonaro to the Brazilian presidency brought many changes to foreign policy. Based on new ideas in a new foreign policymaking format, several patterns of international behavior were questioned and replaced by new guidelines and actions that created friction with international partners. Brazil’s behavior towards South America was one of the areas most impacted by this shift. This paper reflects upon Bolsonaro’s foreign policy for the region, influenced by these changes and marked by disinterest on policymakers’ part, highlighting how ideational factors underpinned behaviors, actors, and actions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, Strategic Interests, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

9036. The Scowcroft Center’s project on twenty-first-century diplomacy

Author:
Jeffrey Cimmino and Amanda J. Rothschild
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
How should US diplomacy adapt for the twenty-first century? The practice of diplomacy has changed drastically over the past several decades, with the return of great power rivalry, the emergence of the new technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), and the rise of other important developments. Yet, while scholars and strategists have devoted enormous attention to how these new developments affect other domains, such as the future of warfare, they have devoted scant attention to the changing nature of diplomacy. If we believe, however, that diplomacy is a—if not the—most important tool of American statecraft, then twenty-first-century diplomacy deserves the same level of sustained attention. This paper will seek to characterize the changing nature of diplomacy with the objective of helping US and allied diplomats more effectively practice strategy and statecraft. This issue brief considers two key questions. How is the context of twenty-first-century diplomacy different from that of the past? How can US diplomacy begin to adapt for the twenty-first century? In answering the first question, this issue brief will focus on the most salient change in the international balance of power—the rise of China—in addition to the current technological revolution. After outlining how these changes have affected the context in which the United States conducts diplomacy, this issue brief will suggest several proposals to adapt US diplomacy to the twenty-first century. These suggestions will address both how changes in the global context—especially technology—have affected the conduct of US diplomacy and how US diplomacy can best respond to China’s rise and the 4IR.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, Science and Technology, and Innovation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

9037. Securing the energy transition against cyber threats

Author:
Atlantic Council Task Force on Cybersecurity and the Energy Transition
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the US energy sector’s reliance on digitalization grows, its vulnerability to cyberattacks also increases. To better understand current and future threats, the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center convened the Atlantic Council Task Force on Cybersecurity and the Energy Transition to develop a cybersecurity framework designed to protect US energy infrastructure—and by extension, national security—against cyberattacks. Former Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff and former General Wesley Clark served as co-chairmen of the task force, which produced this report, “Securing the Energy Transition against Cyber Threats.” The task force found that existing efforts to strengthen cybersecurity are insufficient to meet the demands the energy transition will bring. The fragmented, sometimes rivalrous set of institutions regulating and coordinating current cyber defenses leaves many gaps, ambiguities, and weak links. This report recommends a suite of key actions that government can take to shore up the US energy sector against future cyber threats.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9038. Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors

Author:
Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad. As signals intelligence and offensive cyber capabilities, drones and counter-drone systems, and encrypted communications become more accessible, these technologies will prove ever more decisive to both battlefield outcomes and statecraft. More exhaustive research on these issues is necessary. The ongoing conflict resulting from Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in this young century seems likely to shape the conduct of Russian foreign policy and security behavior for years to come—and these firms will play a part. The activities of these PMCs include high-intensity combat operations, as evidenced in Syria in 2018 and Ukraine in 2022, and a mix of population control, escort and close protection, and local direct-action activities, as seen in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere.2 Given the sourcing and dependence of Russian PMCs on Russian military service personnel and no small influence of Russian doctrine, the questions to reasonably ask include: How do changes in the Russian conduct of war and adoption of new technologies influence these PMCs? Moreover, how might these technological changes influence the role these PMCs play in Russian strategic goals and activity abroad?
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Africa

9039. Behind the rise of ransomware

Author:
John Sakellariadis
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This issue brief investigates the drivers of the ransomware surge that menaced the United States in the summer of 2021, explains why these attacks remain a persistent threat today, and offers recommendations for mitigating the problem in the future. The 2021 surge in ransomware activity stems from a change in how criminals launch ransomware attacks. Between 2016 and 2019, cybercriminals shifted away from automated ransomware campaigns that emphasized scale to targeted extortion operations against organizations and established businesses. This adaptation made ransomware more disruptive and more profitable, eventually attracting the attention of well-organized cybercrime gangs. The intensification of the ransomware epidemic from that point until the attack on Colonial Pipeline resulted from the growing adoption of this new extortion model among criminals. Though the US government has devoted more attention to ransomware over the ensuing months, ransomware remains a significant and long-term threat to the US economy. Three factors drive the persistence of the problem: the presence of a vast pool of security-poor organizations, the availability of a poorly regulated monetization pipeline in the form of cryptocurrency, and criminals’ ability to evade law enforcement by exploiting jurisdictional boundaries. Mitigating just one of these conditions, let alone all three, will demand years of sustained effort. Because the US government cannot eliminate ransomware overnight, it must begin planning how to manage the problem over the long term. To do so, it should start by investing in new efforts to improve the defenses of small- to medium-sized entities. The ease of compromising these organizations has been key to fueling the appetite for ransomware attacks. Yet, many of these organizations lack the personnel, incentives, and contracting power to secure their own networks. Moreover, the US government should require all US-based organizations to report ransomware payments to the government and publish quarterly reports with anonymized versions of the data. Comprehensive payment transparency offers the best way to measure success against ransomware over the long term. It will ensure that success against targeted ransomware is judged in terms of the overall volume of ransomware payments, not just the absence of attacks on high-risk or high-profile entities.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Ransomware
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

9040. Space Traffic Management: Time for Action

Author:
Mir Sadat and Julia Siegel
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Outer space has long been characterized as “contested, congested, and competitive.” More than four thousand eight hundred active satellites currently orbit Earth, representing over forty nations, and nearly twenty-five thousand satellites are projected to join by 2030. Moreover, spacefaring entities are testing the limits of space exploration: Visionary space companies are aiming to launch space tourism programs and send humans to space within the decade, and governments and militaries are increasing activity in cislunar space—the sphere formed by the Earth-Moon radius—to leverage advantageous orbital regions. As humanity expands its frontiers deeper into the galaxy, the threats to US and allied space capabilities will continue to increase. Yet, despite the proliferation of space activity, the ability of international and national bodies to track and regulate space objects—often referred to as space traffic management (STM)—reflects a past era wherein few actors conducted limited operations in space. The current state of STM can be more aptly described as space situational awareness (SSA), or the mere knowledge of objects in orbit. Global actors (including national governments, corporations, and international organizations) track space objects and notify satellite operators when the probability of collision is notable. While collision avoidance maneuvers are standard when there is a one in ten thousand chance of collision, it is ultimately up to the operators to determine whether and when they will move. The limits of this decentralized approach to SSA were illustrated in September 2019 when a European Space Agency satellite veered off path to avoid a Starlink satellite whose operator missed an email notification signaling a high probability of collision.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, National Security, and Space
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America

9041. Beyond munitions: A gender analysis for Ukrainian security assistance

Author:
Cori Fleser
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
From the hospitals of Mariupol to the streets of Bucha, the Russian war in Ukraine has extracted an unacceptably high cost, while banding NATO allies and partners together in an unprecedented tide of support. In bilateral and multilateral security assistance packages, the transatlantic community has sent Ukraine javelins, High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARs), and all manner of weapons to defend against the Russian invasion. Still, Russia’s war continues against the nation of Ukraine and its people. So how should future military assistance account for the different impacts of the war on Ukrainian civilians? What strategies remain for NATO allies and partners to enhance their support beyond weapons and materiel? The answers lie in using gender analyses to zero in on the unique human security challenges facing Ukraine. When we overlook the role of gender in conflict, we miss the opportunity to both lead with our values and make our military support more effective. Applying a gender analysis to our security assistance is a solution that allies and partners have already agreed to implement in forums from the United Nations to NATO. In fact, it’s a tool that many allies have already developed within their own militaries. Now is the time to employ it in support of Ukraine. This starts with acknowledging the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Agenda. The WPS Agenda, passed under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 in 2000, recognizes the disproportionate impact of conflict on women and girls, and their critical role in reconstructing societies. Militaries can apply gender analyses to better understand and tailor assistance to the unique security environments in which they operate. To help policymakers think through how a gender analysis can shape what security assistance should look like—and, in many cases, how allied militaries can implement solutions at scale, and consistent with political decisions that have already been made—we are proud to offer this issue brief. Our intention is to demonstrate to global decision makers that incorporating gender can and should be integrated in real-time conflicts to achieve real results. Our support to Ukraine must not waver, but more can be done to mitigate the severe impact of Russia’s war on the Ukrainian people. Allies and partners already have the political mandate to integrate the WPS Agenda into their operations. They already have the tools, training, and technical expertise to implement it in the field. The next step is making this common practice. This issue brief spells out ten steps for how to do so in Ukraine.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Women, Partnerships, Resilience, Society, Gender, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9042. Sweden and Finland are on their way to NATO membership. Here’s what needs to happen next.

Author:
John R. Deni
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Sweden and Finland have just cleared a big hurdle on their path to NATO membership with the US Senate’s overwhelming vote to welcome them into the Alliance. While several other allies still need to ratify the expansion, Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO is now not a question of whether but when. Even though some analysts have posited that these two countries—especially Finland, which has an 830-mile border with Russia—bring disqualifying liabilities, most Alliance leaders, NATO-watchers, and European security experts argue these newest aspirants will strengthen the Alliance. This is especially so in terms of military capabilities and capacity, but also in terms of strategic culture and geostrategic outlook. Nonetheless, in the days, weeks, and months after Finland and Sweden officially become members, there is an array of subsequent questions that these two aspirants, other allies, and NATO as an organization will need to consider—and ultimately answer. After examining the key strengths that Finland and Sweden are likely to bring into NATO, this issue brief will consider several of these critical topics. These include defense planning, operational planning, and readiness concerns.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, National Security, Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Finland, and Sweden

9043. Afghanistan under the Taliban: Regional recalibrations, challenges, and ways forward

Author:
Hameed Hakimi
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Despite the spectacular and unprecedented events following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, the global spotlight steadily shifted away from the country. Because of the war in Ukraine, among other global issues, Afghans have been competing for attention from the international community and for media coverage of the multiple crises unfolding in Afghanistan. Some of the crises facing Afghans predate the Taliban’s seizure of power in August 2021, such as unemployment, migration and displacement, natural disasters, weak governance, and infrastructural challenges. Yet the profound loss of major gains of the past twenty years because of the Taliban’s return to power cannot be underestimated.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, and Business
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Taliban

9044. Will economic statecraft threaten western currency dominance? Sanctions, geopolitics, and the global monetary order

Author:
Carla Norrlof
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The return of great power rivalry is stoking renewed fears of weakening Western currency dominance. Financial sanctions are becoming the preferred economic tool for accomplishing geopolitical goals. These instruments are especially popular with the United States and Europe. In response, rival great powers, notably China and Russia, are diversifying away from Western currencies and developing counterstrategies to maintain economic and foreign policy autonomy. As other countries are hit by increasingly punishing Western sanctions, the incentive to join Russia and China’s alternative international monetary order increases. New analysis, published in this report, shows early signs that some countries may be trying to diversify away from the dollar. A growing circle of countries attempting to evade the Western-centric financial and currency order may over time erode the dollar and the euro’s sizeable lead, though will likely fall well short of ending their global dominance. This report analyzes these trends and quantifies the extent of reserve diversification following Russia’s 2022 war on Ukraine. It also assesses the polarity of the international currency order since the onset of the euro in 2002. Reserve diversification out of the dollar, and into the euro, has been modest, though Chinese renminbi reserves grew after Russia’s February offensive in Ukraine. Dollar unipolarity declined acutely in 2017 as the number of countries sanctioned by the United States increased and the US President Donald J. Trump threatened to revoke alliance commitments. Using economic statecraft while retaining global economic influence will require the United States to keep its economic house in order and allies close, if the current unipolar currency order is to survive.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

9045. The international role of the euro and the dollar: Forever in the lead?

Author:
Martin Mühleisen
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The international monetary system has been surprisingly resilient over the past two years, considering the size of pandemic and geopolitical shocks that hit markets during this period. Liquidity injections by the major central banks helped stabilize economic activity and avoid disruptions to capital flows or foreign exchange markets. Major exchange rates remained range-bound throughout most of the crisis, even if the dollar has appreciated sharply in recent months. Volatility is likely to pick up as monetary policy responds to high inflation, but there should be no doubt that the dollar-based monetary order has withstood a major test during the past two years. This feat has been even more remarkable as the global security landscape has deteriorated in dramatic fashion, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought international tensions to a level not seen since the 1961 Cuban missile crisis. Moreover, while the dollar’s safe haven status remains firmly established, the center of global economic activity has been shifting east. Asia has become an economic powerhouse, and China is on course to become the world’s largest economy over the next few years. It is a natural question whether China will challenge the United States and Europe for global economic leadership, and whether the renminbi will appear as a leading, if not dominant, currency. This paper argues that this is unlikely for the foreseeable future, in part because a larger global role for the renminbi would be inconsistent with the Chinese leadership’s current policy priorities. However, there is no room for complacency. With the post-World War II international order in gradual decline, the world could again reach a moment where unforeseen geopolitical events might lead to changes in long-held political and economic paradigms. The United States and Europe can reduce this risk by making their growth models more robust and sustainable. Moreover, keeping their global alliances intact could prevent a loss of influence that has heralded changes in the international monetary system in the past.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Currency, Financial Institutions, Digital Policy, Digital Currency, Dollar, and Euro
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

9046. Privacy in cross-border digital currency: A transatlantic approach

Author:
Giulia Fanti and Nadia Pocher
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As a growing number of countries explore Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) for the domestic context, multi-country cross-border CBDCs pilots are also proliferating. Cross-border CBDCs could make cross-border payments faster, cheaper, and simpler. However, for any cross-border CBDC to unlock these benefits and be widely adopted, it must address key concerns, chief among them risks around privacy and transparency of data. This article illustrates how various technical design choices can affect the privacy and transparency of cross-border CBDCs. For instance, architectural choices about the structure of a cross-border CBDC and representational choices about how transactions are encoded in the underlying software can have far-reaching implications for privacy and transparency—both in a domestic context and for cross-border transactions. Many of the cross-border CBDC pilot studies to date have (understandably) adopted the technical designs provided by enterprise distributed ledger platforms. However, some of these designs make tradeoffs regarding privacy, efficiency, and/or security. Whether these tradeoffs are acceptable is a matter of policy, and requires coordination between different regulators and central banks. In view of these implications—and some of the corresponding tensions that arise—we argue that the US and the EU should work together alongside other partners to create the technological and regulatory environment to enable privacy-preserving cross-border CBDCs. The US and the EU should seize the emergence of CBDCs as an opportunity to finally establish a transatlantic privacy framework, and clarify its interplay with the prevention of money laundering and financing of terrorism (AML/CFT/CPF). More broadly, both should harness the clout of their combined financial systems to develop digital asset regulation and standards with a global reach and democratic values. These regulatory developments would not only streamline regulatory guidelines, but they could also directly impact and ease the technical development of a cross-border CBDC.
Topic:
Privacy, Currency, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

9047. The data divide: How emerging technology and its stakeholders can influence the fourth industrial revolution

Author:
Joseph T. Bonivel Jr. and Solomon Wise
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is highlighted by the interconnection of devices and sensors to the internet. The computing and communication capabilities of these devices allow for roughly 2.5 quintillion byes of data to be produced, stored, and analyzed daily. For example, every second, an exponential amount of healthcare data is generated and mined for valuable insights. Today, approximately 30% of the world’s data volume is being generated by the healthcare industry. By 2025, the compound annual growth rate of data for healthcare will reach 36%. This data is fed into machine learning and artificial intelligence models that have strong impacts on multiple healthcare domains that have the potential to impact the socioeconomic statuses of billions of people across the world. Those entities that have functional access to data capital have more options than those that do not. The data divide is the gap that exists between individuals who have access, agency, and control with respect to data and can reap the most benefits from data driven technologies, and those who do not. The data divide can only be reduced if the there is optimization in the data process, monitoring and evaluation of the policies and programs from major stakeholders, and alignment of public private partnerships for social good.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Innovation, Data, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9048. A Palestinian Outlet to the World, A Path toward Peace? Considerations and Options for a Gaza Seaport

Author:
Asaf Ashar and Joel Singer
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Between economic considerations, intra-Palestinian divisions, and Israeli security concerns, there are a number of challenges facing the building of a seaport in Gaza, or in its alternatives. Nevertheless, it may be an opportunity to establish a tri-state free trade zone, and, ultimately, peace.
Topic:
Economics, Maritime Commerce, Maritime, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

9049. Building a Seaport in Gaza: Prospects, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author:
Omar Shaban
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
A seaport in Gaza would not only be an important economic and developmental leap forward for Palestine, but also an expression of its unity and sovereignty. To achieve this, there are multiple options available, each with its own unique set of challenges and opportunitie.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Maritime, and Port
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

9050. When Western media frames the Middle East in terms of sectarianism, not only does it do a grave disservice to its audience, but also to the people of this region, with far-reaching consequences

Author:
Abdullah Hamidaddin
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
When Western media frames the Middle East in terms of sectarianism, not only does it do a grave disservice to its audience, but also to the people of this region, with far-reaching consequences
Topic:
Religion, Conflict, Sunni, Secularism, and Shiite
Political Geography:
Middle East

9051. Why Climate Journalism Must be Mainstreamed in the Arab World

Author:
Sarah El-Shaarawi
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
While the issue of climate change journalism is particularly relevant to the Arab World today, as the upcoming COP27 and COP28 will be hosted in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates respectively, climate reporting in the region still lacks a critical lens that reflects the issue’s urgency
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Religion, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Middle East

9052. Social Change Will Be Tweeted—By a Select Few

Author:
Nadine El-Sayed
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
While social media has had a drastic impact on social and political movements in the region, the dynamics of its algorithms and the financing models of the media still pose limitations on who is heard online
Topic:
Mass Media, Social Media, Digitalization, and Social Change
Political Geography:
Middle East

9053. Red Lines in Global Media

Author:
Khaled Ezzelarab
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Whether in liberal democracies or across the Arab World, journalists today are struggling to navigate a difficult route amid government restrictions, ambiguous red lines, and non-state actors affecting how the media is run
Topic:
Governance, Media, Conflict, and Journalism
Political Geography:
Middle East

9054. China’s surveillance ecosystem and the global spread of its tools

Author:
Bulelani Jili
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This paper seeks to offer insights into how China’s domestic surveillance market and cyber capability ecosystem operate, especially given the limited number of systematic studies that have analyzed its industry objectives. For the Chinese government, investment in surveillance technologies advances both its ambitions of becoming a global technology leader as well as its means of domestic social control. These developments also foster further collaboration between state security actors and private tech firms. Accordingly, the tech firms that support state cyber capabilities range from small cyber research start-ups to leading global tech enterprises. The state promotes surveillance technology and practices abroad through diplomatic exchanges, law enforcement cooperation, and training programs. These efforts encourage the dissemination of surveillance devices, but also support the government’s goals concerning international norm-making in multilateral and regional institutions. The proliferation of Chinese surveillance technology and cyber tools and the associated linkages between both state and private Chinese entities with those in other states, especially in the Global South, is a valuable component of Chinese state efforts to expand and strengthen their political and economic influence worldwide. Although individual governments purchasing Chinese digital tools have their local ambitions in mind, Beijing’s export and promotion of domestic surveillance technologies shape the adoption of these tools in the Global South. As such, investigating how Chinese actors leverage demand factors for their own aims, does not undercut the ability of other countries to detect and determine outcomes. Rather it demonstrates an interplay between Chinese state strategy and local political environments. This paper specifically focuses on key features in China’s surveillance ecosystem, while the companion to this report will focus on the key ‘pull factors’ from African countries and their significance for US interests.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Surveillance, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

9055. Advancing a framework for the stabilization and reconstruction of Ukraine

Author:
Patrick Quirk and Prakhar Sharma
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war on Ukraine has shattered peace on the European continent and created tectonic shifts in the transatlantic security architecture. The Kremlin’s invasion has decimated Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure, and left tens of thousands of innocent civilians wounded or dead as part of a war-crime ridden military campaign. At the time of writing, Kyiv is making slow advances in the South and East with the help of significant Western military and economic aid, yet the outcome of the conflict continues to hang in the balance. A prolonged stalemate and some variation of a negotiated settlement seem most likely, with a Russian victory remaining a distant possibility.1 Absent an absolute Kremlin victory, Ukraine will need to stabilize vast swathes of its territory and reconstruct the social and industrial infrastructure therein.2 Due to their proximity to Ukraine and long-standing economic, political, and social connections, transatlantic allies and partners will most likely be deeply involved in this effort and will be significantly affected by its end result. The purpose of this issue brief then is to help Ukrainian, North American, and European policymakers consider stabilization and reconstruction needs and have a playbook in place regardless of the circumstances or outcome.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Reconstruction, Economy, Business, Innovation, Resilience, Russia-Ukraine War, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

9056. Engaging the Pacific Islands is no longer about the why, but about the how

Author:
Marie Jourdain and Charles Lichfield
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Over the past year, US and European engagement in the South Pacific has noticeably accelerated. Wooing these islands away from Chinese influence is clearly a priority but there are many dimensions to this. The “Blue Pacific” is more than a consortium of scattered islands. They see themselves as large ocean states, which collectively make up the second-largest Exclusive Economic Zone in the world. While they are important as we game out Taiwan scenarios, the peoples of the South Pacific want their region to remain immune from “great-power games.” This calls for a subtle Transatlantic strategy emphasizing partnership. This report acknowledges the mistakes of past engagement strategies, which didn’t approach the region as a coherent whole, lacked sustained and continuous effort, and always came second to other priorities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Pacific Islands

9057. KRI positioned in prominent role in global gas markets

Author:
Ahmed Tabaqchali
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has proven gas reserves of over 25 trillion cubic feet—or 20 percent of Iraq’s total proven reserves. Its current gas production of 5.4 billion cubic meters per year could nearly triple production by 2030 and even sextuple by 2040. This increase would meet current and future domestic KRI demand and generate essential export revenue for the region. The report, The Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s Gas-Export Potential: Deja Vu All Over Again, authored by senior fellow Ahmed Tabaqchali considers the potential of the KRI’s proven and probable gas reserves.
Topic:
Environment, Markets, Oil, Gas, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

9058. The future of immunization financing in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Miguel Betancourt-Cravioto and Pepe Zhang
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Latin America and Caribbean countries have a long history of effective implementation of national immunization programs (NIPs), which has led to the successful control of infectious diseases such as smallpox, measles, and poliomyelitis, among many others. Yet challenges such as inequity, rising costs, growing population needs, and the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively impacted the operation of NIPs in the region. This has led to a significant reduction in vaccine coverage rates (VCRs), putting the population at risk of severe, preventable diseases. Addressing these and other challenges facing NIPs requires sustained sources of funding that are capable of expansion according to national needs. So far, the region has coped with domestic public resources and the important support of international mechanisms including the Pan American Health Organization’s (PAHO) Revolving Fund (RF). Innovative financing is particularly useful in today’s context of fiscal constraints, as it helps public institutions maintain and enhance immunization programs by supplementing available resources with new sources of funding and/ or expanding the impact of existing financing structures. Considering that immunization is a multidimensional endeavor requiring efficient management of demand, supply, delivery, and many other issues, a holistic, health-system approach to immunization is essential to stimulating innovative financing and maximizing its benefits. This issue brief built upon findings from a private, nonpartisan strategy session as part of the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s #FutureofHealth Series, which aims to provide a practical, forward-looking approach to target key policy issues at the intersection of health and the economy in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Topic:
Vaccine, Resilience, COVID-19, Society, and Immunization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

9059. How the Chinese government is financing its way to becoming a techno-superpower

Author:
Ngor Luong
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
On October 7, the Biden administration announced a new rule to control exports of advanced-computing semiconductor chips to China. As the United States works to cut off technology and capital flows to China, Beijing’s desire to achieve technological self-sufficiency is greater than ever. In fact, during the 20th Party Congress in the following week, Xi Jinping further pledged self-reliance in technology to gain a competitive edge in the tech competition with the United States. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China has sought technology-focused securitization to build an innovation system that supports its broader economic, societal, and geostrategic goals. In response to the economic impact ranging from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to the US-China trade and technology war, the Chinese Politburo unveiled the new “dual circulation” strategy at a Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting in 2020. At its core, dual circulation aims to reduce China’s vulnerability to external shocks, and to increase the country’s self-reliance to better guard against global volatility. The Chinese government works to improve China’s innovation-building capacity by attracting foreign capital and technology know-how in order to maximize their benefits while retaining overall control of the system. Beijing is committed to becoming a state-led and self-sufficient techno-superpower. In doing so, the Chinese government is consolidating its influence in both the domestic market and overseas markets where Chinese firms are active, while simultaneously mobilizing public, private, and public-private investment vehicles to support these tech ambitions. A number of its financial mechanisms have already spanned decades, but others have emerged recently. The decade-long mechanisms have yielded mixed results, while the successes of the new ones remain to be seen. It can thus be expected that the Chinese government will continue to further assert itself in all aspects of the innovation system by providing financial support and political guidance for critical and strategic industries. Within this context, this paper examines the various forms of financing vehicles that involve a range of diverse actors to support China’s whole-of-nation approach in an effort to achieve self-reliance in technology. To conclude, this paper assesses the mechanisms’ successes and shortcomings as well as areas to monitor going forward.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Business, and Innovation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

9060. Nuclear energy in a low-carbon future: Implications for the United States and Japan

Author:
Stephen S. Greene
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Nuclear power has received renewed global interest as a secure source of carbon-free energy. In the context of worsening climate change and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resultant energy market constrictions, many countries are actively pursuing conventional and advanced nuclear development, while others are canceling or postponing scheduled shutdowns. As climate change continues to impact both energy supply and demand, nuclear energy is poised to play a major role in the reliability of the future clean energy mix. Challenges to nuclear rollout will require solutions. Construction timelines remain extended, as do licensing processes. Social constraints also hinder development prospects. These potential stumbling blocks require steadfast coordination between allies like the United States and Japan, especially as other nuclear energy heavyweights like Russia and China avoid many of those same bottlenecks in their pursuit of domestic buildout and export. Despite those issues, though, nuclear energy is forecasted to play a major role in the later stages of the energy transition, in which countries look to decarbonize the more difficult parts of their economies. The advent of advanced technologies and the completion of large-scale projects portends the arrival of nuclear energy’s reliability and versatility just as the global energy sector needs it.
Topic:
Climate Change, Nuclear Power, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9061. Improving tax policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: A balancing act

Author:
Felipe Larraín B. and Pepe Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Latin America and the Caribbean is in the midst of a delicate economic transition, with five of the LAC6 countries attempting a tax reform before their GDPs recovered to pre-pandemic levels.1 As the region confronts rising inflation, the economic spillovers of the war in Ukraine, and budgetary pressures left behind by the pandemic, governments should improve their taxation systems to rebuild fiscal stability, stimulate growth, and enhance equity – a delicate balancing act among overlapping policy priorities. Regional taxes are a heavy administrative burden, requiring nearly twice the time to complete in LAC as in the OECD.2 At the same time, the region struggles with average tax evasion of 5.6 percent of GDP3 and a continued overreliance on corporate income taxes.4 With still-high public debts and fiscal deficits, governments must respond by implementing policies to streamline and modernize revenue collection and management. What are the pros and cons and trade-offs involved in increasing or decreasing the region’s three main taxes (VAT, PIT, and CIT)? How can governments optimize enforcement and collection without resorting to rate changes? What policies outside the tax authority are needed to support tax reforms? How can policymakers better navigate the thorny politics of tax reforms? The following pages provide new analysis and concrete recommendations to address these questions. Drawing on the powerful expertise of its authors in addition to valuable commentary and insight from private, nonpartisan strategy sessions, legal experts, and regional governments, this report is a strong addition to the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s #ProactiveLAC Series, which aims to provide insight and foresight to LAC countries on how to advance economic reactivation and long-term prosperity.
Topic:
Markets, Reform, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Financial Institutions, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

9062. Securing alternative gas supplies and addressing critical infrastructure gaps in Europe

Author:
Richard L. Morningstar, András Simonyi, Olga Khakova, and Paddy Ryan
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Kremlin’s weaponization of natural gas exports to Europe as winter approaches has shattered any illusions that Russia could be a reliable supplier. Europe urgently needs to import gas from other suppliers to heat its homes and power its industry. In doing so, Europe can build a more secure and sustainable energy system while cutting off funds for Moscow’s war machine. Painfully high energy prices are already having a serious impact on quality of life and economic development in Europe. New natural gas supplies and expanded interconnections to bring them to market will drive down the costs of energy and reduce the likelihood of social unrest over energy poverty. The surest means to end Russia’s energy leverage over Europe include accelerating the green transformation, curtailing gas demand, and boosting energy efficiency. However, the continent cannot implement these changes overnight. Gas remains instrumental in Europe’s transition from dirtier fossil fuels, electrification of power-hungry sectors, and integration of large-scale intermittent renewables. Natural gas will likely remain a critical part of Europe’s power baseload for at least the medium term. Procuring an adequate supply of gas in the short to midterm is not at odds with the energy transition. Europe must cultivate alternative suppliers, build non-Russian-oriented import infrastructure, and accelerate decarbonization in tandem to boost energy security and affordability. Sourcing gas from non-Russian suppliers will sustain longer-term decarbonization efforts and prevent regression back to dirtier fuels amid the energy crunch. To diversify their energy systems, European states must determine how much Russian gas can be replaced and from where, as well as what new infrastructure will be necessary to enable new imports. The European Union (EU) needs to clearly articulate the anticipated natural gas supply gap to identify investment opportunities for the relevant market players. This issue brief examines potential sources of alternative gas supplies, the infrastructure required to bring new supplies to European consumers, and the financial and regulatory mechanisms needed to support diversification efforts. It offers recommendations for measures that European countries decoupling their energy supplies from Russia should take to give themselves the best chances of succeeding.
Topic:
Environment, Markets, Oil, Gas, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

9063. Arms racing under nuclear tripolarity: Evidence for an action-reaction cycle?

Author:
Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Conventional wisdom suggests that the world is approaching a tripolar arms race among the United States, Russia, and China. As Russia attempts to dramatically revise the post-Cold War security environment in Europe, China is expected to increase its nuclear arsenal to at least 1,500 warheads by 2035. In 2021, the then-commander of US Strategic Command, Admiral Richard, laid out the challenge of nuclear tripolarity before Congress testifying that: “for the first time in our history, the nation is on a trajectory to face two nuclear-capable, strategic peer adversaries at the same time.” In this issue brief, the Scowcroft Center’s Matthew Kroenig challenges the evidence for action-reaction arms races in the post-Cold War period but warns we may be facing one in this new tripolar nuclear environment.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, Deterrence, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

9064. A next-generation agenda for US-ROK-Japan cooperation

Author:
Lauren Gilbert
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Trilateral cooperation among the United States, Japan, and South Korea has proved challenging over the years, owing largely to historical tensions. As a result, this project has sought perspectives from next-generation leaders of the three countries to define areas where targeted, flexible, and informal cooperative arrangements can provide clear mutual benefit to all. This issue brief calls for enhanced cooperation with likeminded allies and partners in order to counter shared challenges and advance mutual interests across the areas of security and defense, science and technology, and global public goods. Taken together, several essential themes emerge. Future cooperation should center on tackling shared challenges including addressing an increasingly belligerent China through proactive yet constructive methods. In the security and defense sector, the three countries should prepare for Chinese economic reprisals by forming a united front. With regard to S&T, to protect against authoritarian threats, including those presented by China’s increasing technological prowess, the three countries should utilize multilateral frameworks, like IPEF, as tools to ensure the safety and security of scientific research and data. For public goods, the trilateral partnership can diversify away from Chinese supply chains by ally-shoring and information-sharing with trusted allies. Given the historically fraught relationship between South Korea and Japan, the United States can act as a mediator to facilitate cooperation in areas of high benefit and low sensitivity. In security and defense, the trilateral partnership should address less-sensitive, shared security challenges, which include but are not limited to maritime incursions, crisis contingency planning, and cybersecurity. S&T can explore these new frontiers and safeguard free and fair principles for digital connectivity and data governance. Although public goods are less subject to domestic political pushback, the trilateral group’s actions are more likely to succeed if they are small, yet meaningful, such as implementing the democratic building blocks. Lastly, trilateral cooperation requires both top-down institutionalization and bottom-up support from the general populace. With respect to defense and security, trilateral summits at the head-of-state level must be coupled with gaining public support. For S&T, the private sector can help advance collaboration, while the public sector helps each country remain in the bounds of domestic feasibility to prevent regional conflict. With global public goods, long-lasting trilateral progress requires coupling high-level government dialogues with civil society engagements.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

9065. The Tower of David Museum: Venue for Co-Existence

Author:
Rony Ohad
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Jerusalem has been studied extensively by scholars across a range of disciplines in the social sciences and humanities. However, the arts, specifically public performance arts, have rarely been leveraged as a primary source to inquire into the city’s social structures. This research project examines how cultural institutions within the Old City of Jerusalem (focusing on the Tower of David Museum site) reflect and shape the relationship between citizenship and cultural performances. The article inquires how a cultural institute in a contested city can become an allied sphere, a source for joint creation, and even a venue for peacebuilding. The events and performances addressed in this article provide examples of both straightforward and indirect peace process approaches, revealing culture’s potential use and limits in a contested environment. The author suggests that a multicultural approach, yet not a neutral one, leads the museum to reveal its agenda, becoming “The City’s Museum” for joint cultural creation and initiative. This is the fifth in a series of papers of a joint project by the Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and the Davis Institute for International Relations at Hebrew University examining selected actors’ contribution to the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Topic:
Culture, Peacebuilding, and Coexistence
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

9066. Women’s Peace Groups in Formal Peace Processes: Benefits of Participation, Price of Exclusion

Author:
Shiri Levinas
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Women’s peace organizations work to end violence and promote peace agreements almost everywhere where conflicts occur. Studies and observations from the past 20 years show that these organizations contribute significantly to peace processes, despite their variation in forms, methods, and the extent of their involvement. In the context of formal negotiations and the formulation of peace agreements, the integration of women’s peace organizations was found to increase the prospects of reaching an agreement, as well as to change and enhance the nature and content of the agreement itself (including governance, social justice, rehabilitation, gender equality, etc.). Their integration was also found to significantly increase the feasibility of implementing the agreement and promote women’s representation in the political system. However, in Israel, as in most countries, decision makers marginalize women’s peace organizations despite their extensive work and significant contributions. This article examines the main barriers preventing the participation of women’s peace organizations in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, the price of their exclusion, and the actions needed to integrate them and express their potential. The article is based on interviews conducted in 2019 and 2020 with women-peace activists from Israel and beyond, as well as a review of research literature and case studies of women’s peace organizations in Israel and abroad. It outlines some of the prices Israeli society pays for women’s exclusion and recommends actions that may promote their integration into formal peacemaking efforts. This is the third in a series of papers of a joint project by the Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and the Davis Institute for International Relations at Hebrew University examining selected actors’ contribution to the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Topic:
Women, Peace, Participation, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9067. Does the Road to Peace Pass Through Prisons? The role of former and current inmates in advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace

Author:
Udi Golan
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Prisoners and former prisoners constitute a significant and distinct group among the Palestinian public, both due to their numbers (hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have served time in Israeli jails since 1967) and their position in society. This position paper examines whether former and current Palestinian inmates can contribute to advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace, and how. The article discusses theoretical aspects that place them in a position to contribute to advancing peace, and provides examples from other countries where prisoners played an important role in advancing or attempting to advance peace. Based on the theoretical knowledge and examples, the article discusses the possible role of Palestinian prisoners in advancing peace. It describes the complexity and legal, moral and security-related issues involved, and points to positive developments, such as a process of moderation and adoption of support for peace undergone by some Palestinian inmates, who over time turned into prominent peace supporters. The article also points to measures that can be promoted in order to realize the potentially positive role of inmates in advancing peace, including dialogue with serving inmates, using the incentive of prisoner release to support moderate positions and to promote peace, and adopting policies of de-radicalization, dialogue and prevention, alongside punishment and deterrence measures, in order to turn some prisoners into actors contributing to peace. This is the fourth in a series of papers of a joint project by the Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and the Davis Institute for International Relations at Hebrew University examining selected actors’ contribution to the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Topic:
Security, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Golan Heights

9068. The Significance of Convening the European Union – Israel Association Council

Author:
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
On July 18, 2022, the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) decided to move ahead with convening the EU-Israel Association Council (AC) after a decade-long hiatus. What does this mean? What opportunities does it offer, and what were the costs of not convening it so far? This paper explains what the AC is, the reasons for its suspension and for the decision to re-convene it. Assuming it will re-convene, the paper recommends future measures between Israel and the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9069. MEPPA’s Progress and Promise, One Year In

Author:
Avi Meyerstein
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
When the Nita M. Lowey Middle East Partnership for Peace Act (“MEPPA”) overwhelmingly passed a divided Congress just after the 2020 presidential election, the new law made a splash. With wall-to-wall bipartisan support, it would invest $250 million over at least five years in Israeli-Palestinian relations. But what’s beyond the headlines? Months into implementation, where does MEPPA stand today, and where can it lead? Most importantly, what will it take to truly build a new foundation for lasting peace? To understand MEPPA’s purpose and full potential, it helps to understand where it came from. MEPPA sprang from an even bigger idea: a global, decade-long campaign to create a $200 million-per-year International Fund for Israeli-Palestinian Peace. That effort, launched by the Alliance for Middle East Peace (ALLMEP) in 2009, was inspired by lessons learned over the prior two decades: from the failed Oslo process, from the successful Northern Ireland peace, and from a small but growing field of initiatives building partnership and trust between Israelis and Palestinians.
Topic:
Partnerships, Peace, and Trust-building
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9070. Democratic Backsliding and Securitization: Challenges for Israel, the EU, and Israel-Europe Relations

Author:
Muriel Asseburg and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The report “Democratic Backsliding and Securitization: Challenges for Israel, the EU and Israel-Europe Relations” analyses the illiberal trends and democratic backsliding that can be seen in both Europe and Israel. Over the course of a two year project, experts from Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs) as well as external experts reflected on the implications these developments have. The authors offer highly relevant recommendations and insights for anyone interested in EU-Israel relations, eroding democratic trends and securitization policies. The report specifically highlights the relationship between the EU and Israel and how these have adapted in light of the illiberal trends, also showing the impact and lack of prospect in light of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking and advancement towards a resolution of the Palestinian struggle. The relevance of this report goes beyond the specific relations between the EU and Israel, however, also showing global tendencies. It demonstrates the eroding global democratic trend and impact on liberal values. Therefore, this report is not only a research but also a call to action to counter the negative trend in order to protect the liberties we have. Below you can find the full report, as well as three short policy briefs: one on Democracy and Foreign Affairs in Israel, one on Illiberalism in the EU and Israel, and one on the International Alliances with the Israeli left. The findings from this report were presented at both an international conference in Brussels on July 12th, and will be presented in the future in Jerusalem. Mitvim thanks PAX for Peace – Netherlands and the SWP for their continued partnership in creating this successful, collaborative work.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Securitization, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9071. Environmental Organizations as Potential Players in the Peace Process

Author:
Nir Arielli
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Environmental issues cross geographic and man-made political boundaries. Shared environmental problems and situations of interdependence may exacerbate conflicts between communities, but they can also offer opportunities for cooperation. This article discusses the capacity of non-governmental organizations to use environmental issues as a platform for promoting peace in the region, especially between Israelis and Palestinians. It focuses on three organizations that see Israeli-Palestinian cooperation as a central pillar of their activities: EcoPeace Middle East, the Arava Institute for Environmental Studies, and Comet Middle East. The article examines the variety of activities these organizations engage in: promoting and encouraging cooperation between political entities, education, facilitating meetings between individuals and groups on both sides, addressing energy and water-related problems (mainly sewage treatment and river pollution), and more. The notable achievements of the three organizations are also highlighted, as well as the considerable difficulties they face. This review of their activities suggests some conclusions and recommendations for organizations and for individuals interested in environmental protection and the future of relations between Israelis and Palestinians. This paper is the second in a series of a joint project between the Mitvim Institute and the Davis Institute for International Relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Environment, Peace, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9072. Israel-NATO Relations: Developing a New Strategic Concept

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Israel’s relations with the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) were never a focal point of its foreign and security policy. In fact, they have weakened since their peak in the 1990s. However, recent geopolitical shifts have highlighted the importance of these relations for Israel, providing a potential foundation for reshaping them. NATO has been undergoing profound reform in recent years, expanding its agenda to deal with additional issues of human security, such as the climate and energy crises, and stressing innovation. The war in Ukraine not only injected renewed vigor and political power into the alliance, it also hastened the processes of organizational renewal and emphasized the alliance’s geographical focus northward and eastward. Israel, too, has undergone change, its security enhanced by normalization agreements with Arab states, a strong Hellenic alliance with Greece and Cyprus, and warming relations with Turkey. Its technological capabilities and its business model orientation could turn its posture vis-à-vis NATO from a consumer of security to a supplier. NATO and Israel now have an opportunity to reshape, deepen and improve their relationship.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9073. Partnership Priorities with the EU – What (If Anything) Is Israel Missing?

Author:
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Among European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries, Israel has enjoyed the most advanced relations with the European Union (EU). This comes as no surprise, as it is a viable liberal democratic country with a free and vibrant economy leading in innovation and many other fields. Yet, since 2016, Southern and Eastern neighbourhood countries signed Partnership Priorities agreements with the EU, while Israel didn’t. This paper describes what Partnership Priorities are, why Israel hasn’t signed a Partnership Priorities agreement so far, and asks what Israel is missing out on by lacking an established set of Partnership Priorities with the EU.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9074. Europol-Israel Police Operational Agreement: Enhanced cooperation with EU in combatting crime and terrorism

Author:
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The Israeli Police and Europol, the European Union’s police agency, have been conducting negotiations over an operational agreement for several years. In September there was signing of end of negotiations, but in December the Council of the European Union decided to re-open the talks. In a global world where crime and terrorism cross borders, countries need to strengthen cooperation among themselves. Such inter-police cooperation takes on a unique form in the EU. The operational agreement between Israel’s Police and Europol can have considerable importance in contributing to the parties’ ability to deal with terror and crime. This paper will review Europol, its cooperation with Israel’s police and other enforcement agencies, including the negotiated agreement, the motivations for upgrading relations with Israel and the benefits and challenges of doing so.
Topic:
Crime, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Police, and Europol
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9075. The Significance of Convening the European Union – Israel Association Council

Author:
Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
On July 18, 2022, the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) decided to move ahead with convening the EU-Israel Association Council (AC) after a decade-long hiatus. What does this mean? What opportunities does it offer, and what were the costs of not convening it so far? This paper explains what the AC is, the reasons for its suspension and for the decision to re-convene it. Assuming it will re-convene, the paper recommends future measures between Israel and the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9076. Implications of Israel and Turkey’s diplomatic thaw on Israel’s Mediterranean Policy

Author:
Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This document focuses on the challenges and opportunities for Israel’s policy in the Mediterranean Basin as a result of its warming relations with Turkey. It covers the main points raised at the 11th meeting of the Research and Policy Group on Israel in the Mediterranean Basin conducted on May 24, 2022, at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, Hebrew University’s Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The document does not necessarily reflect agreement among all discussion participants. The warming relations between Israel and Turkey
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean

9077. One step forward, one step back: International discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking

Author:
Lior Lehrs
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been locked in a stalemate since the 2014 collapse of the US mediation initiative led by then-Secretary of State John Kerry. The relations between the parties have been all but severed and characterized by a series of crises and tensions that peaked over Israel’s 2020 West Bank annexation plan. While the Israeli-Arab normalization agreements removed the annexation idea from the agenda, this did not change the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Developments in recent months in the Israeli-Palestinian arena pose challenges and risks but also new opportunities and possibilities. Special attention should be paid to the impact of the May 2021 escalation, the deep crisis in the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the establishment of a new government in Israel. This paper maps the international discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace under the current conditions, and constitutes a follow-up to the paper we published in April 2021. It is based on a series of dialogues held by Mitvim Institute experts in August and September 2021 with European, American and Palestinian diplomats and experts, as well as UN officials, and also on a series of discussions among a team of Israeli experts formed by Mitvim.[1] The paper offers an analysis of the positions and perceptions of international actors regarding the effects of the latest developments on the Israeli-Palestinian arena, and their insights and conclusions about the feasible and desired measures that could be undertaken to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Affairs, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

9078. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Steven Fielding on Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In his introduction to the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on Friday 6 May, Professor Steven Fielding explores the impact on New Labour's 'modernisation' efforts in the 1997 General Election campaign, before introducing Professor Tim Bale.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Policy, and Labour Party
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9079. Interpreting the French Presidential Election

Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
With France heading into a tumultuous presidential contest this weekend, the Mile End Institute assembled a panel of experts to discuss the results of the first round and the prospects for the second round run-off between President Macron and Marine Le Pen. David Klemperer, Professor Julian Jackson, Professor Rainbow Murray, Dr Emile Chabal and Laura Slimani explore how five years of Macron has altered the French political landscape, what this election will mean for the rest of Europe, the rise of the far-right and whether the French left has a future.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Europe and France

9080. War in Ukraine: Ukraine and History

Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
n this Mile End Institute Webinar, held on Friday 25 March, Dr Lyndsey Jenkins is joined by Dr Joe Cronin, Dr James Ellison and Dr Andy Willimott from the School of History at @QMULOfficial to talk about the War in Ukraine. In this informative session on such a historic moment which will shape our lives and our politics for years to come, our resident experts to discuss Ukraine, its history and politics, Western relations with Russia after the Cold War, the future of NATO and the post-Cold War order, as well as Vladimir Putin's use of the term 'denazification' and the state of Russian politics in 2022.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9081. Polling London: Londoners' Priorities ahead of the Local Elections

Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
On Thursday 5 May, Londoners will go to the polls to elect nearly 2000 councillors and 5 new mayors across 32 boroughs, for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. In association with YouGov, the Mile End Institute has polled Londoners to find out how they intend to vote on 5 May, how living in the Capital during the Covid-19 pandemic has changed their perception of the City and how much trust they have in the Metropolitan Police. At this Breakfast Webinar, held on Thursday 24 March, Farah Hussain (Polling London Project Manager) and Dr Patrick Diamond (Director of the MEI) present our findings, before Lewis Baston, Jenna Goldberg, and Sadiya Akram give their thoughts on the significance of these results and what they tell us about politics and policy in London.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Local, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

9082. Peace Report 2022: Capable of Peace in Times of War

Author:
Institute for Development and Peace
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has caused the European security architecture to collapse. The Peace Report 2022 analyzes the escalation, highlights consequences for Ukraine and the region, and focuses on the reorientation of German and European security and defense policy. In addition to the global implications of the war, the report also outlines the conditions for success and limits of sanctions and analyzes the crisis of the global nuclear order. Furthermore, the research on global conflict shows that internationalized conflicts, jihadist violent actors, and violence and discrimination against women and LGBTQI* minorities require new peace policy emphases. And the steadily expanding competencies of security institutions within democracies due to the threat of terrorism, pandemics and extremism also require stronger democratic control.
Topic:
Security, Discrimination, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9083. Building Bridges between Dependency Theory and Neo-Gramscian Critical Theory: The Agency-Structure Relation as a Starting Point

Author:
Rafael Alexandre Mello
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Finding common ground between theories that have never or seldom spoken is a necessary first step to bridge-building, particularly concerning their foundational bases. This article proposes to develop such a footing for a dialogue between the Marxist version of Latin American Dependency Theory (MDT) and Robert Cox’s neo-Gramscian Critical Theory (NCT). The onto-methodological debate around the agency-structure relation offers a possible starting point for a discussion of (in)compatibilities, in particular by deciphering how each understands the relation; but also by asking whether they bring particular social ontologies that need to be addressed.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Hegemony, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, North America, and Global Focus

9084. Bringing the Critical Thinking Back in: A Critique of Andrew Linklater’s Theoretical Contributions to International Relations

Author:
Fabiana Sander and Matheus Souza
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Inspired by the Critical Social Theory put forth by the Frankfurt School, Andrew Linklater has dedicated part of his career to elaborating a critical and emancipatory research agenda for International Relations. However, his recent research on the restriction of violence in international society, mostly influenced by the English School and by Eliasian Sociology, has pushed Linklater away from an explicit engagement with critical epistemologies and theoretical approaches. Although there is a possibility for close dialogue between these theoretical strands, we claim that Linklater did not articulate these approaches as much as he could have done. Therefore, we make an assessment of his work to discuss some of its epistemological and theoretical inconsistencies. Based on this, we provide a way to bridge Linklater’s initial critical agenda with his most recent analyses on processes of violence restriction and regulation of global harm in the international realm. We argue that by focusing on multiple global processes that contributed to the restriction of violence, Linklater failed to consider the particularities, pitfalls and side-effects of allegedly beneficial processes of violence restriction and, as a result, his work lost critical potential. Accordingly, this article demonstrates how Linklater would benefit from going back to his initial critical agenda to address the limitations of his scholarship on global harm.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Political Theory, Citizenship, and Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9085. Is Critique Still Possible in International Relations Theory? A Critical Engagement with IR’s Vocation

Author:
Natália Maria Félix de Souza
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The article offers a critique of recent efforts to read international relations theory – and its theorists – as especially positioned to offer a critique of international politics. It does so by engaging Daniel Levine’s claim that international relations theory has a special vocation for critique which is unparalleled by other disciplines. By problematizing Levine’s political, ethical and epistemological approach to sustainable critique, I argue that international relations theory has been particularly engaged with a politics of crisis that centers Western modes of subjectivity as the only frame of reference for thinking about politics and history. As a consequence, Western international relations theory has become both inadequate and dispensable for many critical theorists of international politics in much of the world, even when it comes to its most critical approaches. By way of conclusion, I offer an approach to critical international relations theory that starts from the politics of colonialism, instead of crisis.
Topic:
International Relations, International Relations Theory, Decolonization, Sustainability, and Eurocentrism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9086. How Does Gramsci Travel in Latin America? Before and After Critical International Relations Theory

Author:
Diana Tussie and Leonardo Ramos
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
In the last 40 years, Critical International Relations Theory (CIRT) has influenced scholars in the Global North as well as the South. Latin America shows particular features. On the one hand, conceptualisation did not divorce the domestic from the international, as in dependency theory. On the other, Gramsci was widely read much before Robert W. Cox and even before International Relations was constituted as a discipline in its own right. In this context, this article aims to present possible contributions of (neo)Gramscian approaches to the understanding of Latin America as a region. It does so by establishing a dialectical relationship between a few topics that offer insights (and the theoretical reflection they provoke) and some (neo)Gramscian concepts. Hence, we want to re-read, in a dialectical vein, both CIRT and some aspects of how Gramscian thought has travelled in Latin America. We intend to analyse how such thinking is thriving, if at all, and discuss the possible relevance of rescuing Gramscian international thought to think about the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

9087. Land Grabbing and International Political Economy: Towards a Critical Neo-Gramscian Theoretical Model of Land Governance in Latin America

Author:
Sol Mora
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The vigorous debate on global land grabbing within Critical Agrarian Studies contrasts with the incipient analyses from International Political Economy (IPE). This divergence has overshadowed the multi-scalar nature of the power relations that shape land governance, and consequently its effects on land grabbing. For this reason, this paper provides a critical theoretical model of land governance based on Robert Cox’s historical structures approach to understand the causes of land grabbing in Latin American countries. It is argued that this model renders visible the articulation of local and global processes driving land grabbing because it foregrounds the power relations at multiple scales that shape decisions on land access, use and control, as well as the conflicts inherent to them. This demonstrates that, on the one hand, land governance structures in Latin America play a hegemonic role since they express and develop the global agricultural model that promotes land grabbing. On the other hand, social resistance highlights that land governance simultaneously possesses a potential for change. As a result, knowledge about land grabbing is enhanced through a dialogue between the two fields of study.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Governance, International Relations Theory, and Models
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

9088. International Political Economy and Sustainable Finance: Assessing the EU’s Green Deal and UNCTAD’s Green New Deal

Author:
Johannes Jager
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Sustainable green finance is often promoted as an innovative tool to deal with environmental problems. This paper assesses policy proposals at the level of the EU and UNCTAD’s Green New Deal, specifically regarding its suggestions in the field of sustainable finance. It provides a theoretical framework in the tradition of critical political economy and combines a global perspective with regulation theory in order to assess different strategies in the area of sustainable finance. The respective proposals and initiatives can be considered as possible blueprints for hegemonic strategies within different contexts. However, the analysis suggests both proposals, although substantially different and representing different entities in the international political economy, fail to provide a systematic answer to the problems of a highly unequal over-use of natural and environmental resources at a global level.
Topic:
Political Economy, Finance, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9089. Scylla and Charybdis: The Self-Determination of Peoples Versus the Territorial Integrity of States

Author:
A. Kagramanov
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
LIKE Odysseus, who fell into the clutches of Scylla after escaping the whirlpool Charybdis, countries that have escaped the threat of losing territory as a result of foreign invasion are facing the threat of disintegration from within. The ancient epic by the great Homer about the adventures of the hero Odysseus, who finds himself between a rock and a hard place, involuntarily comes to mind when considering the perennial international legal dilemma about the relationship between the principle of the territorial integrity of states and the right of peoples and nations to self-determination. As Yekaterina Narochnitskaya rightly notes, self-determination, like freedom, has “its limits and its paradox.” “Just as unlimited freedom destroys itself, so the right to self-determination, elevated to an absolute, risks depriving everyone and everything of self-determination, the inevitable outcome being a chain reaction of countless conflicting expressions of will leading to a general collapse.”1 Experience shows that the principle of self-determination is subject to double standards and often politically exploited by certain groups to achieve their economic, social, ethnocratic, religious, and other narrow, sometimes purely selfish goals that contradict the original purpose of this vital international legal and (in most cases) constitutional provision. And it is for these untoward purposes that the artificial “collision” of this principle with the principle of territorial integrity is often used.
Topic:
International Law, Law, Self Determination, Conflict, Peace, and Territory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9090. The Evolution of Russia’s Foreign Policy Doctrine

Author:
A. Bogaturov, O. Lebedeva, and A. Bobrov
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
ACCORDING to many of our international relations experts, a presidential decree to approve a new edition of the Foreign Policy Concept of Russia will be one of the most significant developments of 2022. It will be the sixth doctrinal document in our country’s recent history: Previous versions of the key diplomatic “manifesto” were issued in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013, and 2016. The media treat them as routine events when in fact they offer us a unique opportunity to trace all transformations in the foreign policy thinking of the country’s leaders and to analyze the events and trends of the last 30 years. The response to the latter has determined the nature and substance of the conceptual foundations of Russia’s foreign policy. More than 30 years have passed since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. The new generation that grew up, studied at, and graduated from institutions of higher education knows next to nothing about the Soviet superpower, bipolar confrontation, socialist internationalism, and games with “inter-imperialist” contradictions. The system of Russia’s foreign policy priorities has been broken, reestablished, and altered several times. This and the country’s revival inspired us to reassess an article published in 2007 [1] and to correct assessments made then of global processes.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

9091. Imperial Chutzpah in World Politics as a Factor in International Relations Today

Author:
Yu Sayamov
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
IMPERIAL chutzpah as a phenomenon of international relations has been known since antiquity. It stems from the fact that, as the great Ancient Greek philosopher Thucydides put it back in the 5th century BC: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must” [1]. Throughout history, the phenomenon of imperial insolence has invariably manifested itself in world politics and diplomacy as a destructive factor that has provoked wars, conflicts, and other calamities. However, one-sided gains and preferences that states on the road of imperial insolence expected to acquire (and did acquire) by disregarding the legitimate interests of other peoples and international security turned out to be fairly limited in the context of history and, in the final analysis, contributed to the downfall of the empire. Imperial arrogance, as embodied in American foreign policy, should never escape our attention and deserves very serious analysis. As an important factor of international relations, it should be resolutely rebuffed by any state that cherishes its sovereignty and seeks to preserve it.
Topic:
International Relations, Imperialism, Politics, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Influence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

9092. State Politics of Memory in Ukraine After the Euromaidan

Author:
S. Belov
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
THE POLITICS OF MEMORY is a necessary and very important tool used in shaping statehood, consolidating society around a set of state- forming ideas and interpretations. In practice, these are activities by the state and other interested parties to manipulate social groups by adjusting or changing their values and their images of the past. The symbols that are employed to this end are signs that are clear and easily recognizable within social subgroups, and that embody certain values/qualities, standards of behavior, or goals. By appealing to ideas of a collective past, efforts are made to alter people’s behavior in the present. As a rule, historical events are presented to the public in a simplified, uncontradictory and thus generally accessible manner – in the form of mythologemes. Myth is created by means of signs and symbols and by regular rituals that employ these symbols. Rituals recreate the past, fill it with emotional meaning, and allow participants to “re-live” particular historical events.
Topic:
Politics, Memory, Revolution, Identity, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

9093. Increasing the Success and Sustainability of Democracy and Governance Interventions in Post-conflict Countries

Author:
Fernanda Buril
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
n countries riven by conflict, weak institutions, social divisions and grievances, political strife and security threats can hinder efforts to build or rebuild democracy and good governance. Donors and implementers need evidence of what works to better support partners in these contexts, optimize resources and adapt and improve programs. Increasing the Success and Sustainability of Democracy and Governance Interventions in Post-conflict Countries: Analyzing Literature Findings and Partner Perspectives, focuses on the perspectives of partners on the receiving end of CEPPS assistance, examines specific approaches that CEPPS took to support democratization and stabilization in post-conflict environments and analyzes the success and sustainability of these interventions. Its recommendations can be used by donors and implementers to design and implement more effective programs.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9094. Parliamentary Elections in Sri Lanka During COVID-19

Author:
Krystle Reid Wijesuriya, Lasanthi Daskon, Shehara Athukorala, Silja Paasilinna, and Supriya Ramanathan
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Sri Lanka’s most recent parliamentary election was held Aug. 5, 2020, after two postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the district level, 196 members were elected through a proportional representation (PR) system, and 29 were appointed through a national list. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as prime minister Aug. 9 after his party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), secured 59 percent of the popular vote and 145 seats in Parliament. Overall, election observers commended the Election Commission of Sri Lanka’s (ECSL) efforts in conducting safe elections during the pandemic. Despite this success, challenges in election implementation also underscored changes that the ECSL should consider to ensure high level of participation and electoral integrity in future electoral cycles during crisis situations. To assess adaptive measures taken by the ECSL, challenges and key lessons learned, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) published Parliamentary Elections in Sri Lanka During COVID-19: Case Study on Crisis Management in Elections, which includes in-depth literature reviews from various sources, examination of the Sri Lankan national legal framework, assessments of international and national election observer reports, examination of public health guidelines issued by the Ministry of Health in Sri Lanka (MOH) and regulations and guidelines issued by the ECSL for voters, poll workers and other stakeholders. IFES gathered information based on the firsthand experience of providing technical support to the ECSL on a series of election operation efforts in the 2020 electoral period. The paper informed the identification of good practices implemented by the ECSL during the 2020 parliamentary election and lessons learned for future elections during times of crises.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Political Crisis, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

9095. Women’s Political Representation in Sri Lanka

Author:
Shehara Athukorala, Supriya Ramanathan, Meredith Applegate, and Sarah Bibler
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Sri Lanka has taken some positive steps to address significant gaps in women’s electoral representation and achieve greater gender equality. One such step is the introduction of a quota at the local government level, and a new electoral system with a quota at the provincial level. However, women in Sri Lanka continue to face serious barriers to political representation, and the country ranks among the lowest in the world for the percentage of women in national legislatures. For example, the most recent parliamentary elections in 2020 resulted in just over 5 percent of elected women representatives in Parliament. This persistent underrepresentation of women combined with other recent trends — such as negative impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic that further exacerbated gender inequalities — underscore the need for targeted action. To help inform stakeholders’ efforts to sustainably promote women’s political leadership and participation in Sri Lanka, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) published a research paper, Women’s Political Representation in Sri Lanka: Electoral System Analysis and Recommendations, which analyzes the current standing of women’s representation and the main reasons behind the underrepresentation of women in politics, and offers recommendations for how to address the underlying and persistent barriers.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Voting, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

9096. The PAIGC’s Political Education for Liberation in Guinea-Bissau, 1963–74

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The liberation struggle against colonialism, if it is to be a total liberation struggle, is not only for the political conquest of territory (‘flag independence’); it is a struggle to liberate the people from the tentacles of colonialism. The liberation struggle is a social and political phenomenon that gains strength when colonised people organise themselves to reclaim their political and economic sovereignty and to dismantle and destroy the institutions that overpower their own sense of themselves and their capacity to control the fruits of their labour. The liberation struggle employs – at different times – a range of means to end colonial domination, from armed struggle to economic strikes to educational projects, programmes, and cultural resistance.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Colonialism, Resistance, and Liberation
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea-Bissau

9097. Nela Martínez Espinosa (1912–2004) Women of Struggle, Women in Struggle

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The second half of the twentieth century was marked by national liberation struggles in the colonised countries of Africa and Asia. In Latin America, neo-colonial structures had subordinated the republics founded as independent countries at the beginning of the nineteenth century, cementing their subaltern position in the international division of labour. During decades of global crisis (1914–1948), Latin America saw battles between an oligarchy that violently sought to make the working class pay the price of the economic meltdown and a left-wing tendency boosted by two processes: the growing peasant and trade union organisations on the one hand, and a radicalised middle class on the other. Observing the new forms of material dispossession that made the promises of republican democracy impossible, peasant and worker organisations advanced a discourse highlighting class conflict and patriarchal and neo-colonial domination. They also voiced new visions of the nation state and the perspectives for democratic and socialist internationalism against the unfolding fascism, inspired by the mobilisations and transformations of public power achieved by the Mexican Revolution and the Russian Revolution. The fight for equality and liberation under the leadership of working people is ongoing in the anti-imperialist struggles of our time. In a myriad of ways, women powerfully shaped and continue to shape this struggle against oligopolistic, patriarchal, racist, and neo-colonial capitalism. In the Women of Struggle, Women in Struggle series of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, we present the stories of women in struggle who contributed not only to the wider arena of politics, but who also pioneered the establishment of women’s organisations, opening up paths of feminist resistance and struggle throughout the twentieth century. Praxis, as a knowledge of theory and of organisational methods of struggle as they change and respond to history, gives sustenance to ongoing struggles to face oppression. As militants, we study the diverse organisational methods of these women not only to better understand their political contributions, but also to inspire us as we build the organisations necessary for our fight against oppression and exploitation today. In this third study, we discuss the life and legacy of Nela Martínez Espinosa, an Ecuadorian fighter for the people. Nela was a writer and communist activist[i] from an early age with extensive internationalist experience. As the first woman elected to Ecuador’s parliament, she created one of the country’s first mass women’s political organisations in 1938 and, as the first woman minister of the interior, she was effectively in charge of the country in the chaotic three days that followed the insurrection known as La Gloriosa, or the Glorious May Revolution, in May 1944. Nela’s rich life-long activism teaches us about the history of women in local, national, and international struggles that linked women’s rights with anti-capitalist, anti-fascist, anti-racist, anti-colonial, and anti-imperialist struggles throughout the twentieth century. In a speech at Ecuador’s National Congress in 2003 (a year before her death), Nela spoke about becoming the first woman legislator in 1945: I came [to the parliament] for the first time in a trance of my love for this homeland, which is still struggling with itself, but by then had been rescued from a dictatorship that intensified its oppression. Those of us who experienced the dangers of demanding a revolution which was subsequently denied to us were simply moved. A woman in Congress among those who spoke and not simply among those who listened? Those who ruled inherited the colonial way of thinking and acting […] which during the colony destroyed the culture […] of indigenous peoples to the point of becoming part of the norm, the way of life for those who later became the leaders of the republic. The practice that we are speaking of persisted in social norms and especially behaviour. That is why my presence was strange in the National Congress and, on welcoming it, political leaders for the first time also recognised women citizens in the upper echelons of power.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Colonialism, Feminism, and Biography
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

9098. The Military’s Return to Brazilian Politics

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Throughout history, the Brazilian Armed Forces have looked inwards towards their own territory and peoples. They are centred around the construction of an ‘internal enemy’ to justify its tactics, strategies, and accumulation of forces. The art for this dossier highlights emblematic ‘internal enemies’ constructed throughout history. These portraits, placed alongside other historical artifacts, rekindle a collective memory. They are, in fact, portraits of ourselves – the people, the poor, and the dispossessed – in the act of resistance.
Topic:
Politics, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

9099. A Map of Latin America’s Present: An Interview with Héctor Béjar

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
After nearly three decades, Brazil’s military has re-emerged into the country’s political life with the arrival of Jair Bolsonaro as president. This dossier analyses the composition of Brazil’s armed forces, their relationship to US imperialism, and the militarisation of the public sector. Brazil’s military is characterised by a conservative and liberal ideology, a state that regulates the demands of private interests, and a strong anti-communist vision, aspects allow us to better understand its behaviour and its drive to openly dispute the direction of Brazilian society.
Topic:
Imperialism, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Democracy, and Oligarchy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

9100. We Will Build the Future: A Plan to Save the Planet

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Under the leadership of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America – People’s Trade Treaty (ALBA-TCP), Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research partnered with 26 research institutes from around the world to draft A Plan to Save the Planet. This living, evolving document puts forward a vision for the present and the immediate future centred on twelve key themes: democracy and the world order, the environment, finance, health, housing, food, education, work, care, women, culture, and the digital world. Dossier no. 48 includes and elaborates on the Plan and lays out our orientation, principles, and horizon.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus