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8901. Halting the Kleptocratic Capture of Local Government in Nigeria

Author:
Matthew T. Page and Abdul H. Wando
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Too often viewed as a monolithic state, Nigeria has complex subnational governance systems that can have outsized impacts on its trajectory. The state is covered with a vibrant but frayed political quilt, consisting of three layers: the federal government in Abuja, thirty-six state governments, and 774 local governments. Frequently overlooked, Nigeria’s local governments are disproportionately important; if they functioned well, they would be best positioned to meet people’s basic needs and to build their resilience to cope with everyday challenges. Matthew T. Page Matthew T. Page is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In reality, however, “no local government [in Nigeria] works for the people.”1 Instead, “every household is its own local government,” sourcing its basic needs—water, electricity, education, and healthcare—however it can.2 Exhausted by local government kleptocracy—a system in which those who govern steal from the governed—Nigerians understand that they must fend for themselves. While local government corruption is a global problem not unique to Nigeria, it is nevertheless crucial to address. It fuels democratic backsliding, communal conflict, and poverty. By hurting governance outcomes at the subnational level, local government corruption is quietly hobbling Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Domestic Politics, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

8902. Reducing Pernicious Polarization: A Comparative Historical Analysis of Depolarization

Author:
Jennifer McCoy, Benjamin Press, Murat Somer, and Ozlem Tuncel
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global rise of political polarization has fueled concerns about its detrimental impact on politics and society. From an increase in political violence to a decrease in the quality of democracy and governance, the threats posed by pernicious polarization—the division of society into two mutually antagonistic political camps—are diverse and acute. Determining how to reduce these tensions is therefore an urgent challenge. Using data on political polarization from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set, this working paper assesses various instances of depolarization around the globe since 1900 and analyzes their long-term sustainability. Polarization is increasing worldwide. When broken down by region, V-Dem data suggest that every region except Oceania has seen polarization levels rise since 2005. Africa has had the smallest increase during this period, although it has long had high levels of polarization. Rising polarization in Europe is being driven by deepening political divisions in Eastern and Central Europe, Southern Europe, and the Balkans. In the Western Hemisphere, the largest democracies—Brazil, Mexico, and the United States—are all experiencing extreme levels of polarization. East Asia’s polarization levels have traditionally been low, though increasing political tensions in places like South Korea and Taiwan are driving up the region’s score. And in South Asia, India’s polarization has skyrocketed since 2014. Jennifer McCoy Jennifer McCoy is a nonresident scholar in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where she focuses on political polarization and democratic resilience in the U.S. and around the world. To better understand the various paths by which polarized societies might overcome or reduce their political divisions, this working paper examines perniciously polarized countries that have successfully depolarized, at least for a time. Through a quantitative analysis of the V-Dem data set, this study identifies 105 episodes from 1900 to 2020 where countries were able to reduce polarization from pernicious levels for at least five years. These 105 episodes represent roughly half of the total episodes of pernicious polarization during the time period, thus indicating a fairly robust capacity of countries to depolarize. If considered in terms of country experiences rather than episodes (because many countries have experienced multiple episodes in a cycle of polarization and depolarization), then the data indicate that two-thirds of the 178 countries for which V-Dem provides polarization data have experienced one or more episodes of pernicious polarization, but only thirty-five countries (20 percent) have failed to experience any depolarization to below-pernicious levels. Given this apparent capacity among the majority of the world’s countries to depolarize from pernicious levels at least some of the time, this analysis seeks to identify the contexts and sustainability of those experiences and to encourage further research into their causal mechanisms and outcomes for democracies. The analysis offers a preliminary discussion of the potential meaning and normative implications of depolarization as a concept and policy goal. It then uses qualitative analysis to identify patterns in the contexts of various depolarization cases and gauge the sustainability of these trends. Most of these depolarization episodes were associated with dramatic changes in a country’s political life. An analysis of contextual factors showed that almost three-quarters of the cases came after major systemic shocks: a foreign intervention, independence struggle, violent conflict, or regime change (primarily in a democratizing direction). In the remainder of cases, countries depolarized within a given regime structure, whether democratic or autocratic. Tellingly, the authors identified no cases of depolarization from pernicious levels among liberal democracies. This is because very few countries classified as full liberal democracies have ever reached pernicious levels; the United States stands out today as the only wealthy Western democracy with persistent levels of pernicious polarization. Just under half of all depolarizing cases were able to sustain depolarization for a decade or longer. In a second sizeable group of cases, countries managed polarization to some degree, either living with chronic near-pernicious levels after depolarizing, or else repolarizing to near-pernicious levels within ten years. Finally, 15 percent of the cases returned to pernicious levels within the first decade. Troublingly, when the authors analyzed the entire time period from 1900 to 2020, nearly half of the countries that had sustained depolarization or managed polarization for at least a decade later returned to pernicious levels of polarization. These outcomes illustrate the difficulty of sustaining low levels of polarization, and they indicate that a cyclical pattern of polarization, depolarization, and repolarization may be a characteristic feature of political life in many places. Only a fraction (14 percent) of cases resulted in sustained depolarization over the long term.The mechanisms and strategies that enable such sustained depolarization in democracies will be the subject of future research. But given the small number of democracies (eleven) able to accomplish this feat amid the larger pattern of cyclical polarization and depolarization, it will be crucial to also understand strategies of managing polarization at moderately high levels while avoiding democratic erosion, government dysfunction, or returns to pernicious polarization and potential violence.
Topic:
Politics, History, Polarization, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8903. Russia’s National Security Narrative: All Quiet on the Eastern Front

Author:
Eugene Rumer and Richard Sokolsky
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The two defining features of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy have been an increasingly adversarial relationship with the West and an increasingly close partnership with China. These drivers have been the salient feature of official Russian national security documents for the past three decades. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. national security community has viewed Russian strategic thinking as misguided because it failed to see China as the real threat to Russia. This view ignores the Kremlin’s preoccupation with Europe as the most important strategic theater where its interests are at stake, and where they are threatened by the West’s superior capabilities and ambitions. This view also ignores how unimportant—relative to Europe—the Asia-Pacific is for Russia. Russia’s partnership with China is secured, however, by a set of coherent and complementary strategic rationales, which supersede frequent concerns in the Russian strategic community at large about China and its growing capabilities and intentions vis-à-vis Russia. Those concerns appear to have little impact on Russian policy. Notwithstanding those concerns in Russia’s unofficial national security discourse, China’s footprint on its foundational national security and foreign policy documents is invisible—and China, as a source of military threat to Russia, does not appear to be part of the Kremlin’s calculus. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has long been the pacing challenge of Russian military modernization, and the main contingency for which it has been preparing has been future conflict in the European theater. For the Putin regime, there is no alternative to Russia’s “no limits” partnership with China. Moreover, even if Putin were no longer on the scene, a successor regime would have powerful economic, geopolitical, demographic, and military-strategic incentives to maintain this partnership. An adversarial relationship with China would pit Russia against two superior powers in two widely separated geographic theaters. The war in Ukraine has cemented the Russian-Chinese partnership for the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Ukraine

8904. Governance for Resilience: How Can States Prepare for the Next Crisis?

Author:
Frances Brown
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The pandemic has presented policymakers with daunting, interlinked, and often unprecedented challenges. From health emergencies that also upend economies to trade disruptions that also pose new multilateral diplomatic dilemmas, the pandemic has generated challenges that seem exceptional in both scale and degree of interconnection. Although the coronavirus pandemic has generated a dizzying series of harsh social, political, and economic firsts, such dilemmas will not be the last. Trend lines around a series of domestic and multinational governance issues, including climate change, migration, rising geopolitical tensions, and citizen alienation from governing institutions, suggest that complex, interlinked crises will be features of the future. While national and multilateral policymakers should work to alleviate the drivers of such crises, they must also strive to prepare their countries to adapt and recover from complex shocks. In short, they must try to build resilience. The need for resilience will be especially acute in developing and fragile states. These countries will need to respond to compounding shocks across multiple domains, without the head start that their developed-world counterparts enjoy. Equally, donors and policymakers from the Global North must also elevate resilience and adaptation as key components of their approaches to supporting fragile states. This call to bolster countries’ resilience is hardly new. Even before the pandemic, the policy arena featured increasing calls for resilience; now, the chorus has become almost deafening. Recent seminal policy and analytic documents—including the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s flagship report,1 the UK’s Integrated Review,2 and the U.S. Interim National Security Strategy3—have underscored that states’ resilience and capacity for adaptation will be key to their future success in the geopolitical arena. In donors’ peacebuilding and development policies, high-level emphasis on resilience has also swelled over the past few years, including in official communications from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,4 the United States government,5 and the European Union.6 In some development practitioner and civil society circles, the need for resilience is so frequently invoked that it sometimes borders on cliché.7 The increasingly ubiquitous recommendation to “bolster resilience” is valuable for at least two related reasons. First, it offers a more specific strategic objective than conversations around “state fragility” writ large, which have often been too broad to generate concrete policy responses. Second, recent, failed international statebuilding projects have underscored that state fragility is not to be “fixed”—instead, it is to be managed and mitigated.8 The emphasis on resilience thus marks a helpful shift away from maximalist policy framing and toward a more attainable one. But concrete insights on how developing or fragile countries actually achieve resilience are less clear and less common. Given the broad consensus that state fragility is deeply linked to governance, for many policymakers, good governance is central. To be sure, many other factors beyond governance—including demographic, geographic, military, and economic ones—affect a state’s resilience. But a country’s governance and political institutions generally undergird all other dynamics in determining how effectively that state can bounce back from setbacks. What exactly does the concept of “good governance for resilience” entail in practice? This paper surveys the evidence. Below, it reviews the governance-related characteristics and capabilities that affect a country’s resilience. For the purposes of this paper, resilience at the national level can be understood as a country’s capacity to respond to, adapt to, and grow from stresses and shocks.9 Resilience focuses on bolstering the overall performance of a system in the face of unpredictable and often interconnected hazards, making it different from risk management, which relates to specific hazards.10 A country’s resilience depends on the internal characteristics that allow for states and their institutions to navigate a variety of disruptions.11 An overarching insight from the evidence is that governance for resilience is complex and often multidirectional. Several characteristics, such as decentralization, have an ambiguous effect on resilience: they enable a country to withstand some setbacks but leave it more vulnerable in other ways. Still other characteristics—including whether a country is a democracy or an authoritarian political system—do not appear have a clear-cut effect on resilience. In contrast, a few governance “super-factors”—such as control of corruption, societal trust, and high quality political leadership—are exceptionally powerful in enabling a country to augment its resilience through multiple pathways. Finally, this paper considers the broader implications of governance for resilience as a policy agenda. The framing of bolstering countries’ resilience is a valuable one, but it also raises several vexing trade-offs and dilemmas. In particular, it prompts the question of whose resilience, in specific, it refers to, since resilience of state institutions does not always mean resilience of all parts of the population. Looking ahead, the policy refrain of “building resilience” in fragile and developing states, appealing though it is, should be refined to encompass these thorny realities.
Topic:
Governance, Crisis Management, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8905. My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine

Author:
Denis Volkov and Andrei Kolesnikov
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Western governments, including the United States, immediately condemned what they described as “Vladimir Putin’s war.”1 Surely, this formulation was no accident. It was aimed, first and foremost, at drawing a distinction between the actions of the Kremlin and the attitudes of ordinary Russians. There was optimism that ordinary Russians would not countenance a war against a neighboring country.2 But hopes of Russian grassroots opposition to the war were swiftly dashed. Indeed, public opinion polls have consistently shown overwhelming support (70 percent or higher) for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine. Contrary to expectations, Putin’s popularity has also seen a boost, similar to what happened in the immediate wake of the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Partly in response to these indicators, figures like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have called for a visa ban for all Russian passport holders, with an exception for people whose safety is at risk or who are vulnerable to political persecution.3 According to Zelenskyy, “[T]he most important sanctions are to close the borders—because the Russians are taking away someone else’s land” and Russians should “live in their own world until they change their philosophy.” He added, “The population picked this government and they’re not fighting it, not arguing with it, not shouting at it.” Such sentiments are echoed in calls by some European politicians, such as Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, for an EU ban on tourist visas. “It’s not right that at the same time as Russia is waging an aggressive, brutal war of aggression in Europe, Russians can live a normal life, travel in Europe, be tourists. It’s not right,” Marin said in mid-August.4 At the same time, a careful reading of popular Russian attitudes toward the war reveals important nuances that all too often are overlooked. First and foremost is the fact that rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect. A more careful reading of sociological data, including conversations with focus group participants and quantitative research, presents a far more complex picture of Russian society.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Conflict, Vladimir Putin, Society, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8906. Assessing U.S. Options for the Future of the ICBM Force

Author:
Toby Dalton, Megan Dubois, Natalie Montoya, Ankit Panda, and George Perkovich
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Our task was to consider the relative risks and benefits of options for the future U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force. Our task was not to assess whether the United States should deploy ICBMs at all or change its nuclear strategy and doctrine. In our work, we engaged former officials from Democratic and Republican administrations, nuclear policy specialists from universities and defense and arms control think tanks, and senior military officers, as well as other representatives of combatant commands and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The current policy, established following a 2014 Analysis of Alternatives (AOA), is to replace the Minuteman III system with a new Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) system, now named the LGM-35A Sentinel. Some observers, including members of Congress, have urged reassessing whether deterrence and other requirements could be met more cost-effectively by extending the life of the current Minuteman III missiles and their supporting infrastructure. Department of Defense (DOD) officials note that upgrades that otherwise would have been necessary to sustain the Minuteman III system to 2043 were not undertaken once the decision was made in 2015 to proceed with GBSD. Therefore, they insist, there is no realistic option today to pursue a life extension program for Minuteman III missiles beyond 2030, when they are due to be replaced by GBSD. Although we received considerable data from DOD officials on these topics, the iterative process through which we received information, the unclassified nature of our study, and the limited time available for investigating DOD conclusions left us unable to assess the DOD’s position regarding the technical and cost feasibility of an extended Minuteman III alternative to GBSD. To strengthen public confidence in its decisionmaking on the future ICBM, we believe the DOD should commission an independent, classified technical study (with an unclassified version) to address outstanding questions relating to the options and timelines in the 2014 Analysis of Alternatives, cost estimates, procurement decisions, and adversary threats to future silo-based ICBMs. One of the most salient issues that surfaced in our study is the projected medium-term increase in the vulnerability of silo-based ICBMs to attack by precision conventional weapons. A non-nuclear attack on U.S. nuclear-armed ICBMs would confront the president with the choice of initiating in response what could be a large-scale nuclear attack on adversary homelands (either by launching U.S. ICBMs before they were destroyed or by using other nuclear forces). This threat is likely to materialize well before the notional GBSD service life expiration in 2075. We believe this issue deserves more debate, as it may raise questions about the declining strategic value of a long-term commitment to silo-based nuclear-armed ICBMs inherent in the decision to proceed with GBSD. Our discussions and research also explored issues that senior leaders, including the president, should consider regarding any silo-based ICBM system that the United States would deploy, today and in the future. These include allocating forces to simultaneously deter Russia (possibly in the absence of nuclear arms control, if occurring after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, expires in 2026) and a more nuclear-capable China from escalating regional conflicts; confronting possible risks posed by ICBMs overflying Russia to target China; building allies’ confidence in U.S. extended nuclear deterrence; mitigating risks of launch under attack scenarios; and facilitating the negotiation of verifiable nuclear arms control agreements with Russia and China. Consideration of these challenges and issues will be especially important in fashioning the Employment Guidance that will follow from the Nuclear Posture Review.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and ICBM
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8907. Reckless Abandon: Why Tunisia Can No Longer Delay a Border Free Trade Zone

Author:
Hamza Meddeb
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2012, Tunisia announced the establishment of a free trade and logistics zone (FTZ) in Ben Guerdane, near the Libyan border. The aim is to develop marginalized southeastern border regions and formalize informal economic actors. However, the plan has stalled due to institutional resistance, political divisions, and an incapacity to exploit international geopolitical rivalries. If this persists, the project may become irrelevant because of emerging FTZs in Libya, denying Tunisia revenues its ailing economy needs.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Economy, Borders, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia

8908. Five Strategies to Support U.S. Democracy

Author:
Rachel Kleinfeld
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
American democracy is at a dangerous inflection point. The moment requires a step-change in strategy and support. Without such momentum, the country faces a democratic setback potentially as serious as the ones already occurring in India and Hungary (both now ranked only “partially free” by Freedom House) and the nearly one-hundred-year reversal that occurred following America’s Reconstruction era. Many Americans view this moment with concern, but their worry is measured: America’s system is creaky, but the world’s oldest democracy has strong institutions and will pull through. However, since the end of the Cold War, most democratic failure globally has been caused by elected governments using legal methods, such as gerrymandering and technical rule changes, to derail democracy. Their destructions of their own democracies have been supported by pluralities or majorities of their citizenries, whose polarization leads them to back policies that harm democracy to ensure their side prevails. America is on precisely this path. The age and consolidation of U.S. democracy provides resilience—but Americans should not expect too much from the country’s historical strength. Many of the laws that form institutional guardrails were written poorly in the aftermath of the Civil War, with loopholes that are easily challenged given a lack of precedent. Moreover, the country’s age means that much of what are presumed to be laws and institutions are, in fact, simply norms. These norms are eroding quickly. Other organizations and philanthropists already understand the danger America is in. They are pouring time and money into getting more people to vote, particularly minorities and swing voters, to win back democracy. These efforts are necessary—but not sufficient. America’s democratic decline has accelerated despite record numbers of people, minorities, and swing voters voting. And for those on both sides of the aisle for whom these voting measures are proxies for partisan preferences they believe will save U.S. democracy, democratic decline in many states has accelerated despite Democratic control of both chambers of Congress and the presidency at the national level. The community supporting U.S. democracy needs a better strategy.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8909. Russia and India: A New Chapter

Author:
Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russian-Indian relations are undergoing a major change. Throughout the Cold War, the relationship rested on three pillars: Soviet arms sales to India; shared public-sector-heavy economic philosophy and extensive Soviet aid; and the Soviet Union–India vs. United States–Pakistan–China geopolitical alignment. The fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of India and China, the U.S.-China tensions, the deepening of U.S.-India ties, and the Russian-Chinese partnership intensified by Russia’s break with the West and the war against Ukraine have had a profound effect on Russian-Indian relations. Of the three pillars of the Moscow–New Delhi relationship, only one remains: the arms trade. Russia remains a major supplier of weapons to India, and Russian equipment still makes up a vast portion of Indian Armed Forces’ force structure; but Russia is facing competition in the Indian arms market. India’s desire to diversify its supply of weapons and develop its own defense industry has resulted in declining Russian arms deliveries to India in recent years. Russia’s break with the West because of its war against Ukraine has accelerated its pivot toward China. Against the backdrop of U.S.-China and China-India tensions, Russia’s position as China’s junior partner will make it harder for Russia to preserve partnership with India. Moscow’s leverage versus both New Delhi and Beijing is shrinking as they have greater capabilities of their own than they had previously and have new partners that offer more than Russia. Still, the Russian-Indian partnership will continue. For India, Russia remains an important supplier of weapons and, most recently, oil. India has not joined the West’s sanctions on Russia. By doing so, it has demonstrated its independent foreign policy. For Russia, India is an important market for arms and oil. The Indian-U.S. security relationship is relatively new, whereas India-Russia ties have endured for over two generations. India has no reason to forsake the benefits of this relationship. Nor does Russia. It has been said that Moscow plays a weak hand well, but sustaining strong security ties with both China and India will become more difficult for it. The question is how China will react to Russian arms sales to India, and what Russia will do if pressed by China to curtail them. For reasons of geographic proximity, economic ties, and personal relations between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the odds favor Beijing over New Delhi to have a bigger say in Moscow.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, India, and United States of America

8910. The Pitfalls of Saudi Arabia’s Security-Centric Strategy in Yemen

Author:
Ahmed Nagi
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia’s security-oriented approach to Yemen has foundered. The Saudi-led coalition has failed to defeat the Houthis militarily or to restore the government the group toppled. Moreover, Saudi militarization of the border with Yemen has damaged the Yemeni economy—with negative consequences for Saudi Arabia. Crucially, Saudi Arabia’s security is contingent on Yemen’s stability and economic prosperity. As such, Riyadh should contribute to reviving Yemen’s moribund economy, both in the borderlands and in the inland agricultural sector.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economy, Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

8911. Engaging China on Strategic Stability and Mutual Vulnerability

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and Chinese governments, for the foreseeable future, will have the resources to keep each other’s societies vulnerable to nuclear mass destruction. If these governments are not self-destructive, they will want to keep their competition from escalating into armed conflict that could lead to nuclear war. The constructs of strategic stability and mutual vulnerability can help significantly if both governments embrace them and interpret them similarly or even if the leaders of the two countries accurately understand how they differ in their perspectives on them. Unfortunately, to date, on these issues the United States and China are like a quarrelling married couple who tried therapy for one or two appointments, found it dissatisfying, and then alternated in making excuses for not trying again, perhaps with a different therapist or format. Each says they have tried and the other doesn’t listen or understand. Both suspect that the other isn’t saying what they really feel or want; what they really feel is hostility and distrust and what they really want is to get richer and more powerful without being hassled or attacked. It would be easier if they could just go their separate ways, but the property and wealth they depend on will be lost (or at least severely diminished) if they split up or do each other harm. This paper suggests that U.S. and allied interests require persistence in inviting China to dialogue on strategic stability; to demonstrate goodwill, the United States should acknowledge mutual vulnerability as a fact and necessary policy. The need for both moves is reflected in the fact that neither government has defined what it might mean by stability or mutual vulnerability. To help test intentions and prompt harder thinking, the paper plays the role of therapist and offers definitions of both concepts—strategic stability and mutual vulnerability—so that the two sides can critique them more freely and without recrimination. These definitions are broader and deeper than usual, reflecting the growing problem of managing escalation of conventional conflict to nuclear war, the scenario that drives U.S. and Chinese concerns and military posturing. Further, broader definitions are necessary to comprehend the dangers stemming from the entanglement of conventional, cyber, and nuclear weapons and command and control systems. The paper then sketches four benefits of declaring mutual vulnerability, contrary to opponents of the idea, before discussing steps that the United States and China could subsequently take to reflect and build each other’s confidence in such a policy. Finally, if perceived U.S. requirements in the future will be greater than the arsenal needed to deter or defeat Russia or China alone, how will Russia and China be persuaded not to try to build up to balance the additional U.S. force? In other words, if the United States is in two separate but interacting arms races (and deterrence relationships), how could each opponent (China and Russia) be persuaded to negotiate limits on their arsenal lower than the total the United States would insist on possessing to deter two nuclear opponents? Answers to these questions will affect strategic stability and mutual vulnerability of all parties but will take a long time to develop. To begin the process, the paper suggests asking Chinese leaders whether their silence on Putin’s nuclear first-use threats means that China has changed its own policy on nuclear use or that it never took a no-first-use policy seriously in the first place. Is China concerned that the capabilities that the United States and its allies may develop to strengthen defenses against Russia could be used against China too, and if so, might arms control be a wiser approach? Ultimately, the paper suggests that if China and the United States can sustain a process of serious dialogue, they will keep their relationship from worsening even if they cannot formally restrain their competition. And if dialogue leads one to ask the other for deeds to demonstrate goodwill, the paper has suggested some such deeds that could be undertaken with no security hazard and only slight political risk. No one should have the illusion that happiness is in this couple’s future. All this work would be to allow a nonviolent cohabitation that is better than the alternative of destitute divorce or murder-suicide.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, Strategic Stability, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8912. Why Brazil Sought Chinese Investments to Diversify Its Manufacturing Economy

Author:
Celo Hiratuka
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, economic relations between Brazil and China have grown significantly. The main driver of this process has been China’s enormous demand for agricultural, energy, and mineral commodities. On the one hand, Brazil’s strong competitiveness in these products has helped the country consolidate its role as an important supplier to China, increasing exports and turning China into the main destination for Brazilian exports since 2009.1 On the other hand, China, by virtue of its status as the “factory of the world,” has established itself as the main supplier of manufactured products to Brazil.2 Nonetheless, Brazilian scholars, think tanks, and private manufacturing firms have raised concerns. They have done so despite the great boost in bilateral trade flows; the favorable trade balance for Brazil; and the leveraging of businesses in several Brazilian sectors such as soybeans, iron ore, and oil. These concerns are related to the excessive concentration of Brazilian exports in a few products, the environmental impacts of these exporting activities, and the effects of strong Chinese manufacturing competition on Brazil’s domestic market. These worries have become more significant when one considers the growing importance of manufacturing changes with the diffusion of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and the search for new renewable energy sources and environmental sustainability. For Brazil, this matter reflects a need to advance bilateral relations beyond existing export trade volumes and toward new drivers of more diversified economic growth that will help the country escape a specialization in commodities. The fortunes of the Chinese company BYD in Brazil are highly relevant to these trends. BYD is a company that has diversified from the production of batteries into different innovative industrial sectors, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles. BYD has also been expanding rapidly in international markets, and in that process it chose Brazil as an important market, where it has built factories to produce electric bus chassis, photovoltaic panels, and batteries for electric buses. BYD’s trajectory in Brazil certainly has not been smooth. On the contrary, the firm has had to adapt to market fluctuations and, above all, to changes in the Brazilian government’s economic policies, which have made the company’s experience in the country quite turbulent. Despite this, BYD survived its first years in Brazil and more recently has been showing signs of continuing to invest in the Brazilian market. Analysis of BYD’s experience in Brazil shows, on the one hand, that there are important possibilities for new economic relations with China that go beyond trade in commodities, with productive investments that can potentially help Brazil simultaneously incorporate more knowledge-intensive activities and drive positive environmental impacts by generating renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions. On the other hand, the story of BYD also shows that the transformation of these possibilities into effective benefits requires coordinated actions on the part of Brazilian policymakers to offer a long-term horizon for Chinese investments. In that spirit, Brazil must craft a long-term strategy for its economic relationship with China to increase the odds that bilateral engagement can advance in a new and more sustainable, mutually beneficial direction.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economy, Investment, Manufacturing, and Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

8913. Innovation and New Directions: Searching for Novel Paths in Arab Education Reform

Author:
Wafa Al-Khadra, Shaikha Jabor Al-Thani, Nathan J. Brown, Heba El-Deghaidy, Rima Karami-Akkary, Marwan Muasher, and Christina Zacharia
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In October 2018, Carnegie published a report calling for fundamental educational reform in the Arab world and arguing for the need for that reform to move “from schooling to learning” in order to “serve the needs of pluralistic societies and foster the development of active, responsible citizens who are empowered to deal with complexity and advance constructive change.”1 The report gave a number of recommendations encompassing the different fields within which education takes place: the school, the state, and the society at large. This paper, with many of the authors of the first report participating again, attempts to go in further depth about the findings of the first report. It is evident that Arab governments still see education reform as a top-down effort that continues to perpetuate power relations and authoritarian thinking, sidelining critical and creative thinking among students. The paper places special emphasis on several reform efforts that are being implemented across the Arab region, many in a bottom-up approach that attempts a collaborative approach with governments but is not held hostage to old authoritarian thinking. Rather than simply admiring the problem, the paper attempts to highlight several experiences taking place within different Arab educational systems, not so much because these experiences are necessarily transportable but rather to point out that together with the challenges, there are also successes that can be built on. Consistent with Carnegie’s strategy of working with experts from the region, the paper has once again drawn on the practical experiences of experts from the Qatari, Jordanian, and Egyptian educational systems as well as from the regional, bottom-up experience of the TAMAM project, led by the Arab Thought Foundation and the American University of Beirut and spanning eight different countries. Under the able coordination and facilitation of Nathan J. Brown, these experts have authored a document that I hope will further contribute to the debate on education reform in the region—and help push it forward. I want to acknowledge the Asfari Foundation for their generous financing of this project, and hope that policy recommendations in this paper will help guide future education policies in the Arab world.
Topic:
Education, Reform, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

8914. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. This paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Populism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8915. What China Is Learning From West African Managerial Practices

Author:
Abdoulkadre Ado
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Joint ventures have enabled Chinese companies to cultivate a presence in three West African countries—Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Investing in joint ventures has enabled Chinese cultural adaptation by emphasizing training programs in languages commonly spoken in West Africa, embracing local management styles, and assimilating some local practices. This has been especially true in three key economic sectors: free trade zone promotion and related services, transportation and aviation, and oil and gas. Chinese firms are also complementing these growing business arrangements with the use of local languages, social media outreach, and other forms of local engagement with West Africans. In doing so, Chinese organizations have responded to some of the demands of their African partners in local, state, and central government posts. It would be beneficial for African governments, businesses, and corporate managers to explore further ways to incentivize Chinese government decisionmakers and Chinese businesses to use joint ventures more often as the vehicle for their investments in Africa. To deepen the impact of such efforts, they should also encourage Chinese organizations active in West Africa, and across the continent in general, to embrace the use of local languages, especially for conducting business, and to train more Chinese expatriates to use African managerial philosophies that have proven to respect local values while being effective in African markets. Research on China’s engagement abroad and Chinese firms’ business operations in foreign countries often argues that Chinese organizations are not keen to adapt to local contexts. As a result, some analysts of China-Africa relations argue, or at least imply, that China does things as it wishes in Africa and that African countries have little agency in shaping how Chinese governmental and commercial players operate in their countries. Some analysts have even characterized African countries’ relationships with Beijing as the “Chinisation of Africa.”1 This line of thinking tends to assume that local contexts have mattered little for Chinese economic activities in Africa so far. But Chinese commercial engagement in Africa is increasingly adaptative to local contexts, conditions, and complexities. In Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria, Chinese actors are adjusting their ways of doing business to consider local realities with respect to both formal and informal institutions. For one thing, the Chinese players who are active in these three countries are acknowledging and mobilizing African practices and cultural traditions to support their own business goals and sometimes those of their local partners. The level of Chinese economic engagement tends to differ from one African country to another, with some places being more welcoming of a Chinese commercial presence than others. The specific patterns of Chinese adaptation also tend to vary between different parts of Africa. For instance, these adaptations may look different in a Francophone country like Niger than they would in a country like Nigeria. Niger is a nation where China’s adaptation differs from its adaptation in Ghana or Nigeria since language and managerial practices partly are derived from various French and British cultural traditions and colonial imprints in those three African countries.
Topic:
Business, Engagement, Management, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and West Africa

8916. China Is Playing by Turkey’s Media Rules

Author:
Çağdaş Üngör
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Chinese players have localized their strategies to improve China’s image in Turkey in recent years. Although China and Turkey have long maintained friendly relations at the official level, Turkish people remained notably skeptical of China throughout the 2000s. Indeed, Turkey’s unfavorable public opinion has been a constant headache for China, whose propaganda outlets in the country produce little Turkish language content that actually resonates with domestic audiences. Turkey also has few explicitly pro-China voices and no sizable overseas Chinese community, which has made positive public relations into an uphill battle for Beijing. But having acknowledged these weaknesses in recent years, the Chinese regime has opted for strategies that aim at building a new synergy with local actors in the Turkish mediasphere. Beijing has adapted to the local rules of Turkish media and sought new opportunities to elevate China’s image in Turkey by leveraging its friendly ties with Ankara. The Turkish government, which exerts substantial influence over domestic media, has provided new platforms for China to realize its soft power goals within a largely polarized setting with little press freedom. In this context, Turkey’s progovernment newspapers have published “advertorials” celebrating the achievements of the Chinese Communist Party. Similarly, journalists from Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu Agency have participated in Chinese-sponsored press tours to Xinjiang, where Beijing has sought to undercut the Turkish narrative around abuses against the Uyghurs. On the other end of Turkey’s polarized ideological spectrum, China has also appealed to left-wing opposition groups through its narratives, which emphasize the country’s anti-imperialist credentials. Such messaging strategies may already have produced some results in Turkey, as the most recent opinion polls reflect a gradual increase in the number of Turkish citizens who perceive China as a potential partner.
Topic:
Media, Domestic Politics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

8917. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

8918. A CERN Model for Studying the Information Environment

Author:
Alicia Wanless and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the Second World War, European science was suffering. Scientists were leaving Europe in pursuit of safety and work opportunities, among other reasons. To stem the exodus and unite the community around a vision of science for peace, in 1949, a transatlantic group of scholars proposed the creation of a world-class physics research facility in Europe.1 The grand vision was for this center to unlock the mysteries of the universe. Their white paper laid the foundation for the European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN), which today supports fundamental research in physics across an international community of more than 10,000 scientists from twenty-three member states and more than seventy other nations.2 Together, researchers at CERN built cutting-edge instruments to observe dozens of subatomic particles for the first time. And along the way they invented the World Wide Web, which was originally conceived as a tool to empower CERN’s distributed teams. Such large-scale collaboration is once again needed to connect scholars, policymakers, and practitioners internationally and to accelerate research, this time to unlock the mysteries of the information environment. Democracies around the world are grappling with how to safeguard democratic values against online abuse, the proliferation of illiberal and xenophobic narratives, malign interference, and a host of other challenges related to a rapidly evolving information environment. What are the conditions within the information environment that can foster democratic societies and encourage active citizen participation? Sadly, the evidence needed to guide policymaking and social action in this domain is sorely lacking. Researchers, governments, and civil society must come together to help. This paper explores how CERN can serve as a model for developing the Institute for Research on the Information Environment (IRIE).3 By connecting disciplines and providing shared engineering resources and capacity-building across the world’s democracies, IRIE will scale up applied research to enable evidence-based policymaking and implementation. Where CERN “exists to understand the mystery of nature for the benefit of humankind,” IRIE will exist to understand the mystery of the information environment for the benefit of democracies and their citizens.4 While the laws of physics change slowly, the conditions within the information environment are little understood and changing rapidly through the addition of new technology. Additionally, studying the information environment will require analysis of personal and at times sensitive data of internet users, increasing the need for international collaboration. As CERN did by inventing new collaboration tools, IRIE will leverage those same technologies to unlock the collective genius of researchers and practitioners from a variety of fields to strengthen democracy, alongside interested citizens who contribute their own data and expertise. While there are obvious differences between the field of physics and those emerging to study the information environment, aspects of CERN’s development can guide the creation of IRIE, an institution that can uniquely address the growing needs of researchers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Research, Collaboration, Information, and CERN
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8919. Hard Cash and Soft Power: When Chinese Firms Win EU Contracts

Author:
Allison Carragher
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The European Union is a committed defender of open markets. This extends to its public procurement mechanisms, which remain open to all bidders. EU policymakers have developed tools intended to defend the bloc’s interests in the face of increased economic and strategic competition from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), but few policymakers understand how the European public views the debate. As the first major EU-funded, China-built infrastructure project, the Pelješac Bridge in Croatia provides a unique opportunity to conduct a thorough analysis of European public opinion toward EU tendering policy and Chinese companies. Brussels has labelled the PRC a partner for cooperation and negotiation, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival,1 but the nuances of this policy remain difficult to ascertain. Projects and policies presented by China as “cooperation” often contain elements of economic competition or are leveraged by the PRC for strategic gain. However, this dichotomy has not filtered down to citizens. Extensive polling reveals that Croatians share very few of the concerns of EU policymakers. Furthermore, the PRC state-owned construction firm enjoys more visibility than the EU, which provided hundreds of millions of euros for the project. In terms of soft power, which is here defined as the ability of a country to shape the narrative, the Pelješac Bridge has been a resounding success for the PRC. The Croatian public has largely embraced the PRC’s preferred image of itself as a reliable and trustworthy economic partner and a benign power that does not interfere in domestic affairs. This opinion diverges from official EU policy and glosses over evidence of the PRC’s unfair economic practices, environmental and labor shortcomings, and interference in European democracies. Notably, the PRC’s soft-power gains were achieved on the EU’s own dime. It is not in the EU’s interest to bankroll the economic and soft-power ambitions of its systemic rival. As a democratic institution, the EU has a responsibility to both respond to public opinion and educate its citizenry when EU interests are at stake. In this case, the EU should recalibrate its tendering policy to be fairer and better aligned with its own economic and strategic interests. This process is currently underway, but it should also be extended to co-financing arrangements like the Team Europe approach, which combines traditional EU assistance with support from individual EU member states and international financial institutions. These policies must also be paired with renewed efforts at visibility and branding. Lastly, there is a need to collect and publish better data on the end users of EU funds in order to evaluate successes and identify future issues.
Topic:
Infrastructure, European Union, Economy, Business, Soft Power, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8920. After the CHIPS Act: The Limits of Reshoring and Next Steps for U.S. Semiconductor Policy

Author:
Vishnu Kannan and Jacob Feldgoise
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The U.S. Congress’s recent success in passing the CHIPS and Science Act (informally the CHIPS Act) shows that legislators are united on one point: the United States needs to manufacture more semiconductors at home. This idea gained traction during the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic, when global shortages of semiconductors halted the manufacturing of automobiles, traditional consumer electronics, and other products that use semiconductors, such as household appliances.1 As demand for these products soared during the pandemic, the world experienced painful price inflation, which amplified the acute geopolitical tensions between the United States and China.2 U.S. policymakers, already worried that dependence on Taiwan for the most sophisticated semiconductors could imperil national security and economic security, saw an urgent need to act.3 And together, rising prices and geopolitical competition underscored the need to invest in domestic economic revitalization. The CHIPS Act’s $52.7 billion investment in domestic semiconductor manufacturing (see table 1) aims to fulfill three main objectives: 1) reduce the likelihood that shocks abroad might disrupt the supply of chips, 2) boost American international economic competitiveness and create domestic jobs, and 3) protect semiconductors from being sabotaged in the manufacturing process. This paper argues that the CHIPS Act, by itself, will not fully accomplish any of these goals. The act is a major step forward, but it leaves multiple gaps that require additional government action.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Legislation, Trade, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8921. Networks and Competitive Advantage in a Contested World

Author:
Jennifer Kavanagh
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In an increasingly multipolar world and amid challenges from China, Russia, and elsewhere, the United States faces a complex set of foreign policy demands and the real risk of becoming overextended. Networks—of states, businesses, and individuals—offer policymakers a way to prioritize and reduce global commitments while advancing core U.S. interests. Leveraging the right networks in the right ways can extend U.S. influence, support the economic and physical security of Americans, and compete with adversaries at sustainable cost. Today’s policymakers understand the power of networks but need more guidance on how to build and employ them as tools of competition in a contested world rather than a world of open borders and markets. Influence networks—networks primed to spread and amplify U.S. power, enhance U.S. competitiveness, and protect national interests—have three characteristics. They are attraction networks, organized around places and issues where countries and corporations are already interacting, meeting common needs with customized resources. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), for instance, is organized around a shared need for infrastructure across the Global South and embeds Chinese influence by tailoring agreements to each partner’s local conditions. The United States has used attraction effectively in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, but most U.S. foreign investment has been centralized and top-down. They are gated networks with clear criteria for entry, access, and exit. Gates capture network power and direct it toward specific goals. The European Union (EU) has used gated economic markets to build significant regulatory power and geopolitical relevance. The United States has tended toward universalism but employs gates in some security networks, like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and is turning toward gates in economic networks with friendshoring initiatives in some industries. Finally, they are distributed networks that have robust ties between members throughout the network, allowing influence to flow quickly along more pathways and facilitating collective action. The United States has often relied on less resilient hub-and-spoke networks to retain control. U.S. Indo-Pacific security alliances are hub-and-spoke, while NATO is more distributed, enabling more rapid, coordinated responses and wider spread of U.S. influence. Networks with these characteristics can help policymakers tackle their hardest problems. For example, better use of influence networks can support U.S. efforts to prioritize and fully resource the more significant challenge posed by China by pushing forward changes that advance European security autonomy and by building and mobilizing needed, distributed networks in the Indo-Pacific theater. Influence networks can inform U.S. strategies for building ties to hedging states that offer access to key resources or strategic locations—for example, by focusing on shared local needs of potential partners and U.S. comparative advantages and by creating distributed business or civil society partnerships. Finally, influence networks provide ways to approach the Russia-China relationship that support U.S. security and economic interests, including avoiding the isolation of either. These examples begin to illustrate how influence networks can improve U.S. strategies toward foreign policy challenges by offering policymakers a way to prioritize commitments, capitalize on U.S. strengths, and avoid overextension that harms U.S. interests. Additional exploration and application of these networks will investigate these and other foreign policy challenges in more depth.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Networks, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and United States of America

8922. Public and cultural diplomacy in European cities and states’ branding

Author:
Szymon Ostrowski
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Article “Public and cultural diplomacy in cities’ branding” is a try to set ideas of city diplomacy and idea of branding into theory of international relations. Also, analysis of two West-European and two East-European cities is a chance to analyze chances and threats that both states and cities can encounter during a process of brand building. The main questions that article is answering are “Can cities use their resources and connections to make public and cultural diplomacy?” and “What influence on that process has factor of being a city in post-soviet country or former Soviet Satellite state?” It can be said that cities are able to brand and rebrand itself and they are more flexible than states that cannot run away from some aspects of its identity. In case of difference between western and post-soviet states, the difference is none. In research, numerous rankings, articles and analyses were used as a primary sources in order to characterize how different are images of Italy, Germany, Hungary and Ukraine. Also, paper tries to determine, what is relation between states brand and branding of its cities.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Culture, Soft Power, State, Cities, and Branding
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Hungary, and Italy

8923. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle - a Lethal Weapon of Tomorrow for Terrorists

Author:
Aleksander Olech
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Terrorism has been used as a form of combat for centuries. Over the years, the tools used by terrorists have evolved. While attacks with cold weapons still take place, nowadays terrorists also use explosives, machine guns, guided missiles and increasingly often drones. The present growth of the arms market has led to terrorist groups being heavily militarized, as they can successfully acquire modern weapons and subsequently use them in their attacks. This state of affairs has directly affected the security of states and societies, and subsequently became a principal subject of discussion on international security forums. Contemporary global terrorist threats also harness artificial intelligence that supports weaponized robots, missiles, as well as clusters of killer drones. This narrative arose a few years ago, indicating that terrorists may have a vastly greater array of options at their disposal because they may cooperate with some states that would back them up. The chance for terrorist organisations to gain access to artificial intelligence technologies only increased due to the global competition surrounding it. Due to this potential spreading, terrorists will have a chance to operate weapons supported by AI. These events then merge into a deeply concerning scenario which conceivably may have to be confronted. The threat of terrorist organisations possessing and using swarms of drones does not seem to be very distant.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons, Drones, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8924. Belt and Road Initiative vs. Baltic Sea Region. The perspectives of the container transport market in Poland

Author:
Aleksandra Bartosiewicz and Paulina Szterlik
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Poland is a key element of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is also an active container shipping participant in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The aim of the article is to determine whether further development of the BRI is a threat for the Polish BSR container shipping, and vice versa. The main tools used to achieve the objectives mentioned above include a literature review, logical reasoning and statistical analysis. The results of a survey on the importance of chosen factors for the further development of the BRI in Poland, as well as the SWOT analysis of these factors are also part of the proposed study. The performed research shows that such factors as expansion of deep water infrastructure, the increase of seaport transhipment potential or competitiveness of the BSR are among biggest threats to the future of the BRI in Poland. At the same time, it seems that in the near future, the further development of the BRI will not significantly affect the container shipping in the BSR.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Maritime, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Transportation, and Logistics
Political Geography:
China, Baltic Sea, and Baltic States

8925. Systemic Geopolitical Analysis in the research of power distribution in Eastern Europe

Author:
Erwin Metera
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article presents Systemic Geopolitical Analysis, which as a scientific method can be an important tool for studying the distribution of power in Eastern Europe, supporting the assumptions of structural realism with an element of quantitative research. This region, as a place where spheres of influence and the ensuing economic and potentially military conflicts meet, is an area where the knowledge of the most precise distribution of power may be a crucial element in the analysis of the genesis of conflicts, the shifts in power distribution during their course, as well as in the prediction of future flashpoints. Being the first attempt to correlate Systemic Geopolitical Analysis with the issue of conflicts in Eastern Europe, the paper contains a hypothesis that Systemic Geopolitical Analysis is a research method that enables an effective analysis of the geopolitical reality in the region because of: 1) the conflicts occurring in the system due to differences in power distribution; 2) the nature of the components of power, measurable by the means of Systemic Geopolitical Analysis. Confirming the above hypothesis, the article points to the economic aspect, linked to the Russian natural gas exports, and the military aspect, by taking into account the characteristics of contemporary tensions in the region, which reduce the role of supra-systemic reserves.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Gas, Conflict, Exports, Regional Politics, and Structural Realism
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

8926. The Influence of Political Processes and the War in Ukraine on the Formation of Generation Alpha and the iGeneration (Z): Defining Specific Features

Author:
Liudmyla Kryvachuk
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article attempts to analyse and define the specific features of the iGeneration (Z) and Generation Alpha in Ukraine in the context of the political processes and the war taking place in Ukrainian society. The article discusses the generation issues, taking into account the characteristics of the iGeneration (Z) and Generation Alpha. Assuming that a generation is an identifiable group of people who share a similar time of birth and significant events at critical stages of development, the article presents an original approach to determining the specific features of the iGeneration (Z) and Generation Alpha in Ukraine. The Orange Revolution (2004), the Revolution of Dignity (2014) and the hybrid war (2014-2022) and Russian-Ukrainian war (from 24.02.2022) had a significant impact on the formation of the iGeneration (Z) and Generation Alpha in Ukraine.
Topic:
Children, Geopolitics, Youth, Social Policy, Hybrid Warfare, Generation, Generation Z, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8927. Russian economic nationalism and the vectors of Russian foreign policy

Author:
Rafał Lisiakiewicz
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
In this article, the author wants to test the impact of economic nationalism on the change in Russia’s foreign policy. The author will refer to neoclassical realism, which shows how to combine the issues of power distribution in international relations with the influence of the domestic level of the state on the process of creation of the foreign policy. In terms of neoclassical realism, economic nationalism is a variable that shapes the perception of the economic challenges facing Russia. The author also points out that economic nationalism is also related to the protectionist policy of the Russian Federation. Thus, it influences the shaping of processes within and outside the country. The author recognizes that in the process of creating the Russian foreign policy decisions, economic nationalism should be linked to other factors, especially security issues and Russia’s general strategic culture, in order to obtain the final set of premises that will determine Russia’s shifts in foreign policy. The tensions related to the role of the EU and NATO in the countries of Eastern Europe clearly influenced the level of cooperation between Russia and the West. Nevertheless, economic issues in this regard were also extremely important. Russia’s power position was based on the economic potential.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, Nationalism, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

8928. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Economic Consequences on Europe and the World

Author:
Philip Fwaldin Kasuwa
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
A number of international sanctions have been placed on Russia since it launched an attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in order to persuade the country to de-escalate the conflict. The sanctions imposed on Russia, while designed to harm the Russian economy, had unintended consequences on the world economy, primarily through the disruption of global supply chains. Energy supply shocks, commodities and trade supply shocks were all caused by the conflict. In many nations, this resulted in an increase in worldwide inflation. Despite the fact that Israel and Turkey were instrumental in mediating a peaceful end of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the economic fallout from the crisis continued to reverberate throughout Europe and beyond.
Topic:
Economics, Sanctions, Commodities, Trade, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

8929. The American Multi-Domain Operation as a response to the Russian concept of New Generation Warfare

Author:
Tomasz Wójtowicz
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
America’s unipolar balance of power created after the end of the Cold War is inevitably coming to an end. The dynamic economic growth of the People’s Republic of China, lasting uninterruptedly since the 1980s, the reconstruction of spheres of influence by the Russian Federation, the world war on terrorism with the accompanying costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, economic crises systematically weakening the economies of Western countries in 2001, 2007 and 2020, and the COVID-19 pandemic – these are just some of the many causes of geopolitical changes. Parallel to the weakening position of the United States, countries such as the Russian Federation are increasingly boldly challenging the current balance of power, provoking armed conflicts and destabilizing countries located in Central and Eastern Europe. The purpose of this article is to present the American Multi-Domain Operation concept as a response to the Russian concept of new generation warfare by which the country successfully led to the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas, and the political destabilization of Ukraine. The main research problem resulting from the assumed goal was to answer the following question: what is a Multi-Domain Operation and how do the United States intend to compete and win in the armed conflict taking place in Central and Eastern Europe with the Russian Federation? The following research methods were used to solve the research problems: the method of cause-effect and institutional-legal analysis, method of examining documents, and the method of analysis and criticism of literature. The monographic and comparative methods were also used. However, the main role was played by deductive reasoning which enables the identification of facts based on an in-depth analysis of source data. Taking into account the preliminary research, the author proposed the following research hypothesis: a Multi-Domain Operation is another American operational concept describing the security environment, and the Russian and American way of war. The USA will achieve victory in a possible armed conflict by locating and neutralizing the enemy’s anti-access – area denial capabilities, and then destroying its forces in the disputed area.
Topic:
Power Politics, Conflict, Multipolarity, Russia-Ukraine War, and New Generation Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

8930. Cybersecurity culture in the public and private sector area in the Central European region

Author:
Borta Górka-Winter
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Cyber security is a growing problem associated with everything a citizen or organisation does in cyberspace. The problem thus outlined fits into a multifaceted programme that can be addressed through cyber security management. The analysis in the article compares the level of cyber security awareness among the staff of public institutions and the private sector in four Central European countries, namely Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Public institutions are by nature open, decentralised and rich in a wide range of data about the state, society, economy, economics and research and innovation. For this reason, they are often exposed to serious cyber threats. This study examines the relationship between cyber security culture and the urgent need for preventive action against possible cyber threats. The main thesis of the study is that an adequate understanding of cyber security culture and improved awareness among employees about digital threats is key to achieving cyber security growth. The research illustrates breaches in so-called digital hygiene, which are caused by a lack of knowledge, skills and errors in employee behaviour. Following a survey of staff employed in both public and private organisations, an identification of key cyber security risk factors is made. Increasing staff competencies can help improve cyber resilience.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Public Sector, Innovation, Private Sector, Management, and Organizational Culture
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Central Europe, and Slovakia

8931. Role theory and Russia’s attempts to integrate the post-Soviet space: from internal to international duties

Author:
Damian Strycharz
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow’s foreign policy towards the post-Soviet space has become an even greater area of concern. In order to better understand Russia’s behaviour in the post-Soviet space, it is worth analysing what led to Moscow’s renewed interest in this area. There are numerous accounts explaining Russia’s policies towards its neighbourhood, but they often focus on material factors or Russian imperial complexes. To address the existing gap and examine changes in Moscow’s attitude towards the region, this paper will use role theory and analyse shifts in Russia’s national role conceptions. It argues that the combination of important external and internal factors led to changes in perception of Russia’s international duties and responsibilities between Putin’s rise to power and his return to the presidency in 2012. Consequently, these changes resulted in different understanding of Russia’s role in the post-Soviet space, which had implications for Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions in the region afterwards.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Integration, Post-Soviet Space, Russia-Ukraine War, and Role Theory
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

8932. Trade Flows Between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership Countries: Dynamics and Prospects

Author:
Tomasz Grodzicki
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The Eastern Partnership is a part of the European Neighbourhood Policy focusing on the EU’s Eastern neighbours. Its main objective is to deepen the political and economic integration of the EU with six countries in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The aim of this paper is to assess the development of EU trade relations with Eastern Partnership Countries from 2002 to 2021 and to indicate its prospects. The results show that the EU is in a group of main trading partners of the Eastern Partnership countries. The EU noticed both: a trade surplus with Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Armenia (except in 2005); and a trade deficit with Azerbaijan. The volumes of imports and exports had increased over the years which also led to better economic integration with the EU. However, the future EU-Eastern Partnership trade characteristics and dynamics remain unknown due to the Russian invasion on Ukraine that caused troubles in trade flows in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

8933. The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Turkish foreign policy towards the Western Balkans

Author:
Jan Niemiec
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The scientific aim of this paper is to analyse and evaluate actions taken by Turkey’s leading politicians with regard to the Western Balkan states (i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002, Turkey has attempted to increase its international influence through diplomatic, economic and cultural measures. Western Balkans region, with which Turks have historical and ethnic ties, is one of the key areas in AKP’s doctrine. Adopting image theory in international relations as the theoretical foundation, this research examines implementation of Turkish foreign policy in the Western Balkans in times of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. By employing available original Turkish sources (academic publications, public reports, press releases), the main objectives of Turkey’s political strategy towards the region have been determined. Detailed analysis of official statements and speeches of Turkish policy-makers was also fundamental for this study. In this context, the values and symbols to which the AKP government refers in its activities in the Western Balkans have been identified. Based on content analysis, comparative analysis and political discourse analysis, this research seeks to explain the rationale of Turkish actions in recent months. As a conclusion, future prospects for Turkey’s involvement in the Western Balkans have been presented and discussed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, COVID-19, Policymaking, and Regional Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia

8934. Artists killed in Latin America for exercising their freedom of artistic expression

Author:
Cecilia Noce and Diana Arévalo
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
This is an executive summary of the original report produced in Spanish that focuses only on violence against artists, like targeted killings related to the exercise of their right to freedom of expression and artistic creativity in Latin America. In 2021, CADAL recorded 378 attacks on freedom of artistic expression, of which 23 were murders. Artists and cultural workers who participated in protests in Colombia and Cuba were harassed, detained, and repressed. Musicians and cultural leaders were also involved in the violence between organized crime groups in countries such as Mexico and Brazil.
Topic:
Arts, Culture, Freedom of Expression, Protests, Targeted Killing, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Latin America, and Mexico

8935. Untangling Elite Opposition to Indigenous Rights in Chile

Author:
Kelly Bauer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Throughout Chile’s constitutional process, right-wing rhetoric has rejected Indigenous recognitions and representation in defense of the status quo.
Topic:
Human Rights, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Representation, Indigenous, Elites, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

8936. The Importance of Lula’s Presidency in an Increasingly Multipolar World

Author:
Sean T. Mitchell
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The inauguration of the leftist two-time former leader as Brazil’s president is a source of hope for social and environmental movements worldwide.
Topic:
Environment, Social Movement, Leftist Politics, Political Movements, Multipolarity, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

8937. The Institutionalization of Anti-Haitianism in Dominican History and Education

Author:
Ayendy Bonifacio
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Recent acts of anti-Haitian violence and discrimination are not isolated events, but part of a long history of anti-Blackness in the Dominican Republic.
Topic:
History, Discrimination, Violence, and Racism
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and Dominican Republic

8938. Hurricane Ian Highlights the Devastating Effects of the U.S. Blockade on Cuba

Author:
Mikael Wolfe
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
As Cuba reels from the ongoing effects of Hurricane Ian, a Havana-based Cuban scholar explains how the U.S. blockade has hampered Cuba’s recovery from Hurricane Ian and fuels ongoing mass emigration.
Topic:
Migration, Natural Disasters, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Hurricane, and Blockade
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

8939. How to Destroy an Investigation from the Inside: Ayotzinapa and the Legacies of Impunity

Author:
John Gibler
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Is the Mexican government's dubious new evidence part of another “historical truth?”
Topic:
Corruption, Government, History, Impunity, Memory, and Extrajudicial Killings
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

8940. El Salvador’s Slide Toward Authoritarianism

Author:
Jonathan Ng
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Three decades of U.S. intervention and opposition policies have helped Nayib Bukele monopolize power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, El Salvador, and United States of America

8941. Saamaka Maroon Communities Face Continued Land Threats in Suriname

Author:
Giovanna Montenegro
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In 2007, Saamaka advocates triumphed at the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights, winning key rights and damages. Today, those rights are under attack.
Topic:
Human Rights, Land Rights, Indigenous, and Logging
Political Geography:
South America and Suriname

8942. The Most Important Election in Brazil’s History

Author:
Bryan Pitts
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Brazil faces a stark choice in its presidential runoff Sunday. Can Lula and the Left overcome Bolsonaro’s misinformation and attempts to buy the vote?
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Leftist Politics, Misinformation, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

8943. Cuba’s New Family Code is a Window into the Political Ecosystem

Author:
Ailynn Torres Santana and Julio César Guanche Zaldívar
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After intense public debate the new Code was approved in a September referendum, placing sexual and gender politics at the center of the social and political fabric.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, LGBT+, Legislation, Family, Sexuality, Marriage, Society, and Gender
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

8944. In the Dominican Republic, Language Barriers Complicate Life for Haitian Migrants

Author:
Kendall Medford
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
For the hundreds of thousands of Kreyòl speakers living in the Dominican Republic, the lack of language resources limits access to basic services.
Topic:
Migration, Language, Services, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and Dominican Republic

8945. The Old is Dying and the New Cannot Be Born

Author:
Marian Schlotterbeck
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A longtime analyst of Chilean social movements reflects on the country’s multiple lefts and power relations within the ongoing “process of change.”
Topic:
Social Movement, Leftist Politics, Social Change, and Power Relations
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

8946. Istanbul Journal of Economics: Volume 72 Issue 1

Author:
Gökhan Karabulut
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, Budget, Finance, Investment, Trade, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

8947. Istanbul Journal of Economics: Volume 72 Issue 2

Author:
Gökhan Karabulut
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Islam, Religion, Communications, Natural Resources, Finance, Internet, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Currency, Unemployment, Sustainability, COVID-19, BRICS, Labor Market, Economic Stability, Consumer Behavior, Rent-seeking, Energy, and Wages
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

8948. Unrest in French Overseas Territories and Corsica: Analysis of Violent Demonstration Trends From 2020 to Early 2022

Author:
Adam Miller, Timothy Lay, and Niki Papadogiannaki
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 24 April 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron secured re-election, defeating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Despite his re-election to the presidency, dissatisfaction with Macron has been reflected by his relatively poor performance in both the presidential and parliamentary elections, with notable swings to both the political far-right and hard left (France24, 20 June 2022). During the presidential election, Macron lost electoral support in several regions of France and the overseas territories, with Le Pen comfortably outperforming Macron in Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Mayotte, and Réunion (Guardian, 25 April 2022). Moreover, Macron’s Ensemble coalition lost its absolute majority in parliament during legislative elections on 12 and 19 June. Ensemble lost seats to the New Ecologic and Social People’s Union (NUPES), the left-wing coalition formed by hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Euronews, 20 June 2022). While National Rally did not win any parliamentary seats in the territories, several Macron-supporting incumbent politicians lost their seats to NUPES or regionalist candidates (Le Monde, 19 June 2022). Most significantly, Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin lost her parliamentary seat in Guadeloupe to NUPES-supported Christian Baptiste (20 Minutes, 19 June 2022). These political developments follow more than a year of heightened levels of demonstration activity across mainland France, overseas territories, and Corsica. Driven by opposition to coronavirus restrictions, demonstrations across mainland France,1 overseas territories,2 and Corsica surged throughout 2021, with demonstration levels remaining elevated ahead of the presidential election in April. Although demonstrations spiked throughout French territory, analysis of this trend sheds light on complex regional dynamics. Most notably, since the beginning of 2020,3 demonstrations have been far more likely to involve violent activity, destructive activity, and/or barricades4 in French overseas territories and Corsica compared to mainland France. While violent demonstration levels have increased across the board, root issues vary. In Corsica, the violent death of a Corsican prisoner renewed calls for greater autonomy, while in the Americas, coronavirus restrictions rekindled discontent rooted in systemic inequality. Violent demonstration activity in the territories and Corsica reflects an underlying disconnect with the government in Paris. This report examines the regional trends that have emerged out of increased demonstration activity in mainland France, the overseas territories, and Corsica.
Topic:
Political Violence, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Corsica, and French Overseas Territories

8949. Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections

Author:
Clionadh Raleigh and Caleb Wafula
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle, marking the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010. This represents the end of the second and final term of the Jubilee Alliance party government under President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, a current presidential contender. The presidential campaign between Raila Odinga — another ‘legacy’ candidate who has previously run four unsuccessful presidential campaigns — and Ruto has experienced some local troubles, but the focus during this campaign is whether the Kenyan electoral landscape has really shifted to emphasize class, demographic, and elite divisions.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

8950. Wagner Group Operations in Africa: Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mal

Author:
Ladd Serwat, Heni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone, and Timothy Lay
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 30 March 2022, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament launched an inquiry into states’ use of private military contractors (PMC), drawing particular attention to the prominent Russian PMC known as the Wagner Group (UK Parliament, 30 March 2022). The decision to launch the inquiry came as Wagner Group forces deployed to Ukraine, and a series of reports emerged implicating Wagner mercenaries in human rights violations in Mali. This was only one of the latest efforts to investigate the Wagner Group’s activities. Past initiatives came amid heightened international concern over Wagner Group operations in the Central African Republic (CAR). Multiple UN bodies have previously tabled concerns or opened investigations into alleged abuses perpetrated by Wagner mercenaries (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021; UN Info, 31 March 2021). In June 2021, the UN Panel of Experts on CAR tabled reports of “indiscriminate killings” and violence against civilians at the hands of “Russian instructors” to the UN Security Council (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021). The UN peacekeeping mission in CAR (MINUSCA) and Rwandan special forces have also expressed concerns about joint operations with Wagner over alleged human rights violations (UN Info, 31 March 2021; Corbeau News, 13 June 2021). Moreover, the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group and Wagner-linked individuals in December 2021 (European Council, 13 December 2021). In light of growing concerns about Wagner’s activities in Mali and their deployment in Ukraine, this report analyzes ACLED data on the group’s engagement in political violence in recent years. It focuses on civilian targeting by the Wagner Group in CAR and Mali, where they have operated alongside state forces since 2018 and 2021, respectively. Analysis of the data reveals several clear trends:
Topic:
Human Rights, Armed Forces, Civilians, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, and Central African Republic

8951. Violence Targeting Civilians Increased During Elections in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Regina Chung, Laura Sorica, Elliott Bynum, and Josh Satre
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Violence targeting civilians in Papua New Guinea rose in the lead-up to and during the campaign, voting, and vote counting periods for the country’s recent national elections. When voting began on 4 July, mob violence at polling stations became deadly amid allegations of voter fraud, missing ballots, and disputed counting. With a decentralized political system that contributes to clientelism, long-standing communal and clan conflicts also reignited during the elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Papua New Guinea

8952. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin

Author:
Leif Brottem
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
Topic:
Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Benin

8953. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin

Author:
Leif Brottem
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Insurgency, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Benin

8954. Papuan Independence and Political Disorder in Indonesia

Author:
Sindy Ajara, Laura Sorica, and Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In Indonesia, political disorder in Papua and West Papua1 provinces increased in 2021 amid opposition to the revision of the Special Autonomy Law. First promulgated in 2001, the Special Autonomy Law was initially intended to give greater power to the local governments in the Papuan region. However, new revisions to the law introduced in 2021 expand the central government’s authority and have allowed for the unwelcome creation of new provinces in the region (Tempo, 16 July 2021). Tensions between the political demands of many Papuan groups and the centralized, development-oriented agenda of the Indonesian state continue to fuel unrest. This report examines disorder trends related to the issue of Papuan independence since 2018,2 focusing in particular on the rise in clashes between state forces and the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB), increasing levels of violence targeting civilians by the TPNPB, and disproportionate state intervention in peaceful protests held by Papuans and Papuan groups.3
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Protests, Civilians, and Independence
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

8955. Violence in Yemen During the UN-Mediated Truce: April-October 2022

Author:
Raed Khelifi, Emile Roy, and Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 2 October 2022, the UN-mediated truce in Yemen came to an end as the warring sides rejected a proposal presented by UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg to extend and expand the agreement (Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, 2 October 2022). The truce had first come into effect on 2 April 2022 and was renewed twice for two-month periods, in June and August. Among other things, it provided for a halt to offensive military operations by both the Houthi and Internationally Recognized Government (IRG)1 sides. Overall, the six months of truce brought several tangible benefits to the Yemeni population, including improved access to humanitarian aid (ReliefWeb, 31 May 2022), greater economic opportunities (ACAPS, 17 May 2022), and a significant reduction in violence and casualties countrywide. ACLED’s report on the first two months of truce found that April and May 2022 saw the lowest levels of reported fatalities from political violence in Yemen since January 2015. This trend continued for the whole truce period: reported fatalities from political violence between April and September 2022 were consistently lower than any other month since January 2015.
Topic:
United Nations, Violence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

8956. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 General Elections

Author:
Sandra Pellegrini and Maria Puolakkainen
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Following the first round of voting in Brazil’s general elections on 2 October, left-wing two-time former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) and the ‘Brazil of Hope’ coalition – leads the race with 48.4% of the vote. He was followed closely by far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and the ‘For the Good of Brazil’ coalition, who outperformed the polls by receiving 43.2% of the votes. Lula’s inability to exceed 50% has forced a runoff election between Lula and Bolsonaro scheduled for 30 October. The narrow margin between the two candidates came as a surprise, as many predicted a first-round victory for Lula (BBC, 3 October 2022). The close outcome underscores the deepening polarization of Brazil’s electorate, with both contenders garnering significant popular support with opposed electoral programs. Amid this polarization, antagonism between Bolsonaro’s administration and the opposition has fueled increased electoral violence, which continues to pose a threat ahead of the presidential runoff election. UN experts warned that threats, intimidation, and political violence “generate terror among the population and deter potential candidates from running for office,” urging Brazilian authorities to ensure the safety of candidates and most-at-risk communities (OHCHR, 22 September 2022).
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

8957. The 2022 Israeli Legislative Election and Political Violence in the West Bank

Author:
Ameneh Mehvar and Matan Ayash
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 1 November, Israelis will go to the polls for the fifth time in three-and-a-half years. This latest round of elections follows the dissolution of a historically broad coalition — headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid — that consisted of right-wing, centrist, left-leaning parties, in addition to the first Arab party to serve in a ruling coalition in Israel’s history. The so-called change coalition was Israel’s first government without Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister since 2009. The formation of an ideologically diverse coalition was borne out of the feeling of necessity to prevent Netanyahu from continuing his tenure. Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for alleged bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, has become the primary fault line in an Israeli political environment that has been deadlocked since 2019. While the majority of seats in the Knesset are held by right-wing parties, reflecting an increasing number of Jewish Israelis who self-identify as right-wing (IDI, 30 August 2022), the rift among the political right over Netanyahu has prevented the formation of a right-wing government, creating two competing blocs that have shaped Israeli politics since 2019.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

8958. From the Capitol Riot to the Midterms: Shifts in American Far-Right Mobilization Between 2021 and 2022

Author:
Roudabeh Kishi
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
After the attack on the Capitol in January 2021 and through the November 2022 midterm elections, far-right mobilization has only continued to evolve in the United States. Currently, far-right activity in 2022 is on track to exceed the level of activity reported in 2021, driven by a significant uptick in white nationalist, white supremacist, and anti-LGBT+ organizing around the country. This report analyzes shifts in the drivers of far-right mobilization over the course of the year, with a focus on how these drivers shaped the activities of armed militias and violent groups like the Proud Boys in states with contentious elections, as well as a look at trends to watch ahead of the 2024 campaign season.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, LGBT+, Far Right, White Supremacy, and January 6
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and United States of America

8959. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 Presidential Runoff

Author:
Maria Puolakkainen and Sandra Pellegrini
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Following his victory in the presidential runoff election on 30 October, President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva described Brazil as “one country, one people, one great nation.” While this speech may indicate the incoming president’s willingness to seek unity, it comes at a time of heightened political polarization in Brazil. Inflammatory rhetoric around the elections and spikes in political violence throughout the election period have raised concerns over the potential for further outbreaks of unrest, even beyond the aftermath of the runoff. The contestation of the election results and calls for military intervention by supporters of outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro present an ongoing challenge to the “peace and unity” promoted by President-elect Lula in his victory speech (Folha de S.Paulo, 31 October 2022).
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

8960. A case for differentiated legal responses to child, early and forced marriage and unions: Lessons from India for a Global Audience.

Author:
Katherine Watson
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Jewish World Service (AJWS)
Abstract:
Around the world, gender inequality continues to harm women and girls. Systemic discrimination and entrenched social norms limit their opportunities and freedom, while increasing their risk for a host of bad outcomes.
Topic:
Children, Child Marriage, Marriage, and Legal Aid
Political Geography:
India and Asia

8961. Have trade agreements been bad for America?

Author:
Alan Wm. Wolff, Robert Z. Lawrence, and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Many Americans are persuaded that trade agreements of the last 40 years have been a costly mistake. To be sure, open markets leave some people behind, and promises to help those hurt were broken. But on balance, expanding trade has greatly benefited the US economy, and policy approaches taken need to be built on rather than abandoned. Alan Wm. Wolff, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Robert Z. Lawrence say more must be done to help those harmed, but protectionism is not the solution. The international trading system needs more outspoken US support and leadership if it is to be maintained and improved.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

8962. Building downstream capacity for critical minerals in Africa: Challenges and opportunities

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Demand for critical minerals—bauxite, cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and other minerals that underpin solar, wind, geothermal, and other forms of renewable energy and electric vehicles—is already booming and is projected to continue to grow at a rapid pace. Africa’s mineral-rich developing economies could benefit greatly from this increase in demand. Many African economies have vast critical mineral reserves, and their nascent industrial sectors imply vast export potential. These countries could increase the benefits they reap from these minerals by building downstream capacity in processing—the steps that turn mined ore (bauxite, iron ore) into refined intermediate goods (aluminum, steel). To do so, however, they need to improve their infrastructure, investment climate, and governance and learn to navigate an increasingly complicated geopolitical environment. Hendrix assesses the challenges facing four critical mineral–rich developing African economies: Guinea (bauxite); the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt); Madagascar (graphite and nickel); and Mozambique (graphite). The solutions he offers include (a) embracing hydropower potential—which is vast in these countries—while paying attention to social costs and distributive impacts, (b) exempting refinery-related capital goods and industrial inputs from import duties, (c) locating downstream capacity in areas of relative stability, and (d) leveraging external policy anchors to provide policy stability and transparency.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Economy, Supply Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

8963. How to save the WTO with more flexible trading rules

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The clash between the Western and Chinese economic systems is threatening the world trading system, with countries increasingly using trade as a tool to coerce other countries. It is imperative to return to an inclusive, rules-based international trading order before the problems in trade spill over into the other geopolitical frictions that plague the world. This Policy Brief argues for a system that steers between two extremes that have emerged: “deep integration,” a single undertaking in which all members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) are expected to adhere to all rules regardless of their preferences and circumstances, and “decoupling,” in which groups of countries centered on the United States or China limit trade with each other. Instead, Lawrence says, the world trading system should have a “variable geometry” that allows open plurilateral agreements among self-selected members that desire deeper integration on particular issues while allowing members that prefer to implement distinctive domestic policies to remain outside some of these agreements and follow a set of more limited rules. The universal rules would permit diversity but still promote trade between all countries through measures such as safeguards that would deal mainly with the most harmful systemic frictions. If the multilateral system is not up to the task of creating such an approach, it is likely to lose its relevance as differentiated regional or topic groupings become increasingly dominant.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Reform, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8964. EU carbon border adjustment mechanism faces many challenges

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, Megan Hogan, and Jisun Kim
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief assesses the evolving EU Emissions Trading System and EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and explains objections within Europe and from major trading countries likely to be affected by the proposed CBAM import levies. While EU officials have sought to ensure that the CBAM is consistent with obligations under the World Trade Organization (WTO), key aspects of the CBAM could violate WTO rules and are likely to be contested, taking years to play out. Meanwhile, several other countries will adopt new carbon-inspired border restrictions, adding to global trade frictions. Major carbon-emitting countries, therefore, need to act cooperatively instead of unilaterally to both advance the fight against climate change and update the rules-based global trading system. Two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions result from nontraded activities, such as road transport, electricity generation, and home and office heating. Countries can curb emissions in these activities, while developing guidelines for carbon abatement in traded sectors.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, European Union, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe

8965. CHIPS Act will spur US production but not foreclose China

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Megan Hogan
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The CHIPS and Science Act, export controls, and agreements with allied countries will accomplish many of their multiple objectives. More US semiconductor fabrication plants will be built, US R&D will be accelerated, and advanced chips and chip-making machines will be denied to China, Russia, and other adversaries. However, the Act will not make a material difference to US chip supplies in the next two or three years. Slower economic growth has already tipped the chips market in favor of ample supplies. While collective measures have inflicted considerable short-term pain on China, causing a sharp drop in the fortunes of its high-tech firms, China will respond by redoubling its self-sufficiency programs. The United States, however, should not mimic China in pursuing self-sufficiency, as US self-sufficiency is an illusion. The United States currently exports high-value chips and imports low-value chips, so increasing self-sufficiency would require the United States to prioritize basic chip production at the same time it is supposed to be competing with China in advanced chip production. Continuing to prioritize advanced chip production—where the United States has a clear advantage—is the most efficient course of action.
Topic:
Economics, Legislation, Exports, Production, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

8966. Soaring demand is driving double-digit import price inflation in the United States

Author:
Caroline Freund
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
At a time of soaring price increases in the United States, inflation in the US import sector has been soaring the most. Import price inflation in the first half of 2022 was in the double digits, above US consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures inflation. Excess demand for certain imported goods is playing a big role, but so are supply shortages caused by temporary business closures overseas and shipping delays associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Correctly identifying the culprit for misaligned demand and supply, and hence rising prices, is central to understanding the type and extent of policy intervention needed. Using movements in prices and quantities of specific goods, the analysis presented in this Policy Brief shows that the increase in import price inflation has been driven to the same or a greater extent by demand compared with supply constraints. The results have important implications for policies to help reduce the supply and demand imbalance and thus tame inflation.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, COVID-19, Imports, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8967. Corruption risks loom large over financing of green infrastructure

Author:
Creon Butler, Sean Hagan, and Dominic Martin
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Governments and public international organizations are making a concerted effort to provide large amounts of money to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (climate mitigation) or adapt to the effects of climate change (climate adaptation). But there is a significant risk that the infrastructure projects where much of this climate financing will need to be targeted will be undermined by corruption—from bribery and kickbacks to fraud and embezzlement. The threat is increased by the scale of the climate financing being provided and the speed with which the required projects need to be completed. This Policy Brief identifies key corruption risks that threaten climate infrastructure financing and the best practices that can alleviate these risks.
Topic:
Climate Change, Corruption, Infrastructure, Risk, Carbon Emissions, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8968. Is South Korea vulnerable to EU and US carbon border restrictions?

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott and Megan Hogan
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
South Korean exports, especially carbon-intensive products like steel, are increasingly vulnerable to both the European Union’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)—set to begin on January 1, 2023—and the proposed Clean Competition Act (CCA) before the US Congress. Schott and Hogan caution that Korean exporters should not count on Korea’s decade-old EU and US free trade agreements (FTAs), nor on the multilateral trading rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to protect them from new carbon-based import barriers in key foreign markets. The WTO and the FTAs have broad and loosely defined exemptions for environmental protection. Nor is Korea likely to be shielded by its own cap-and-trade emissions trading system (the K-ETS), because of extensive use of free allowances and large differences between EU and Korean carbon prices. While the threat the EU CBAM poses to Korean exports is imminent, passage of the CCA faces major legislative obstacles. But US imports of Korean steel and other carbon-intensive goods are still subject to climate-related duties at the US border under US unfair trade statutes. The US Department of Commerce has ruled that free allowances issued under the K-ETS (and EU ETS) are implicit subsidies that can be offset by countervailing duties. These charges are in addition to the harsh tariff-rate quotas on imported Korean steel applied under the “national security” authority of Section 232 of US trade law, which are more restrictive than measures imposed against European and other steel exporters. The authors suggest relaxing these US barriers, as they have been for shipments from Europe, in return for Korean participation in the nascent US-EU talks to establish a “Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum.”
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Exports, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

8969. The online gig economy’s impact is not as big as many thought

Author:
Lee G. Branstetter
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The explosive global growth of online ride-hailing platforms raised concern (and, in some quarters, optimism) that similar growth in other platforms could rapidly disrupt traditional labor arrangements on a large scale in advanced economies. But the evidence to date suggests no significant changes in the overall importance of “gig” work in the US labor market nor a significant decline in the importance of traditional employment relationships. Online platforms may play a growing role (relative to traditional “brick-and-mortar” intermediaries) in connecting gig workers to their customers, but that alone does not guarantee a large increase in the importance of gig work. Branstetter reviews this evidence, noting the gaps in labor market data series that make the measurement of this phenomenon so difficult. Even if traditional employment relationships are not likely to decline significantly in the near future, the rise of online gig work nevertheless highlights longstanding inadequacies of labor market regulations, which recognize employees and truly independent contractors but struggle with the intermediate kinds of worker-firm relationships the online platforms enable. Branstetter summarizes proposals for regulating gig economy work and the lessons policymakers in South Korea and other economies can learn from the literature he reviews in this Policy Brief.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Labor Market, and Gig Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8970. Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash, and Lawrence H. Summers
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve seeks to cool an overheated US labor market to ease wage hikes and reduce job vacancies, without a painful spike in unemployment. But empirical evidence indicates that these goals have never been accomplished together and remain unlikely now. In fact, fighting inflation will require a reduction in job vacancies and also an increase in unemployment. The inverse relationship between job vacancies and unemployment is measured by the Beveridge curve, named after a British economist. Blanchard, Domash, and Summers find that the Fed’s hope that vacancies can be decreased without increasing unemployment flies in the face of historical empirical evidence. The current low unemployment rate and the very high vacancy-to-unemployment ratio suggest that the labor market is overheating and the natural unemployment rate has increased. It has increased about 1.3 percentage points from its pre-COVID level, implying the labor market is even more overheated than suggested by the current unemployment rate.
Topic:
Economy, Unemployment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8971. South Korea should prepare for its exposure to US-China technology tensions

Author:
Mary Lovely and Abigail Dahlman
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The stated goal of the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) is to create standards that enhance and elevate regional trade and investment flows, but it is clearly aimed at reducing the role of China in global supply chains. As China is Korea’s largest trading partner, US policy discouraging Chinese participation in supply chains has immediate detrimental implications for Korean manufacturers. The United States is the second-most important destination for Korean exports. Given the values of these triangular trade flows, Lovely and Dahlman assess South Korea’s exposure to US demands to remove or reduce Chinese participation in the manufacture of exports destined for the US market. The reliance of the proposed framework on certain standards will likely reduce Chinese participation in IPEF trade networks. Korea may benefit from this trend, but IPEF could also increase production costs for Korean companies, especially in the electronics sector, a problem that would worsen if China retaliates against these companies. To reduce these risks, Korea might find it prudent to reduce its reliance on intermediate goods from China for products it produces for export to the United States. The Korean government should also seek to better understand its exposure to US–China trade tensions and diversify its trade relations. Korean firms should start preparing for supply chain disruptions, perhaps by making investments at home. Korea could also help other IPEF members reduce supply chain disruptions while addressing security concerns over China.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Supply Chains, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

8972. China's CPTPP bid spurs South Korea to act on Asia-Pacific trade pacts

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
China’s sudden application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in September 2021 has broad implications for South Korea’s economic relations with China, Japan, and the United States. In the past, Korea frequently debated but invariably postponed deciding whether to participate in negotiations on the CPTPP, despite the substantial benefits to be gained from doing so. However, China’s application has prompted Korean officials to get off the fence and apply as well. As China moves to deepen its ties to regional partners, Korea needs to follow suit, complementing the ongoing implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with expedited negotiations to join the CPTPP and participation in the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). Korean participation in the RCEP, CPTPP, and IPEF is desirable and mutually reinforcing and should allow Korea to sustain its strong commercial interests in both the US and Chinese markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, South Korea, and Asia-Pacific

8973. Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the US-China trade war

Author:
David Steinberg and Yeling Tan
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
America's recent turn toward protectionism has raised concerns about the future viability of the liberal international trading system. This study examines how and why public attitudes toward international trade change when one's country is targeted by protectionist measures from abroad. To address this question, the authors fielded three original survey experiments in the country most affected by US protectionism: China. First, they find consistent evidence that US protectionism reduces Chinese citizens' support for trade. This finding is replicated in parallel experiments on technology cooperation, and further validated outside of the China context with a survey experiment in Argentina. Second, they show that responses to US protectionism reflect both a "direct reciprocity" logic—citizens want to retaliate against the United States specifically—and a "generalized reciprocity" logic that reduces support for trade on a broader, systemic basis.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Protectionism, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8974. The IMF should enhance the role of SDRs to strengthen the international monetary system

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The special drawing right (SDR), issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has the potential to strengthen dramatically the international monetary system. Established in 1969 and allocated twice during its first decade, the SDR was in the institutional closet from 1980 until 2009, when $250 billion in SDRs was allocated to members of the IMF to help address the global financial crisis. In 2021 another $650 billion in SDRs was allocated to help address the coronavirus pandemic. The SDR has proved itself as a crisis instrument. This paper addresses critically the arguments against SDR allocations. It proposes regular annual SDR allocations, along with measures to make the SDR more attractive to critics and measures to build out the SDR system in support of the international monetary system. The paper includes an appendix on the history of the SDR. A second appendix analyzes SDR use following the 2009 and 2021 allocations and finds that contrary to the popular myth, many countries other than low-income members of the IMF benefited directly in multiple ways from those allocations.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8975. The World Bank, the IMF, and the GATT/WTO: Which institution most supported trade reform in developing economies?

Author:
Douglas A. Irwin
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The 1980s and 1990s saw a policy revolution in developing countries in which many highly protected (if not closed) economies were opened to world trade. These reforms were largely undertaken unilaterally, but international economic institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization supported these efforts. This paper examines the ways in which these institutions promoted, or failed to promote, trade policy reform during this pivotal period.
Topic:
Development, World Bank, Reform, Trade, IMF, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8976. The portfolio of economic policies needed to fight climate change

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Christian Gollier, and Jean Tirole
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Climate change poses an existential threat. The authors argue that carbon pricing and green research and development (R&D) support are good economics, but their implementation can be improved. Even if carbon prices are generalized and given more substance, green R&D is still likely to be smaller than needed. Much more money must be spent on it than is now the case, and this money must be properly allocated in order to have an impact. Moreover, done well, other policies, such as standards, bans, and targeted subsidies, can be good economics. But they have often been incoherent and their implementation is delicate. The authors also argue that domestic and international compensation is key to the acceptability of efficient policies. Finally, although a country’s emissions will not materially alter the course of climate change, individual countries can still show the way ahead: They can develop technologies that can be used by other, poorer, countries. They can provide leadership/momentum on global agreements and on the need to fund climate change policies in developing economies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8977. 25 years of excess unemployment in advanced economies: Lessons for monetary policy

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
For about 25 years before the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation was very low and stable in most advanced economies. A little noticed dark side of this impressive achievement is that unemployment rates were almost always higher than needed to keep inflation low. This widespread and persistent policy error arose because of a major flaw in standard macroeconomic models—the use of a linear Phillips curve. This flaw would have been far less costly if central banks had not chosen such a low target for inflation. This paper thus adds to the arguments in favor of a moderately higher inflation target. Even without a higher target, central banks need to use a broader range of economic models and should verify their estimates of the natural rate of unemployment by running the economy hot from time to time in order to see nascent inflationary pressure before throttling back.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8978. North Korea as a complex humanitarian emergency: Assessing food insecurity

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency with food insecurity at its core. As of August 2022, both quantity and price data point to a deteriorating situation, made worse by the regime’s self-isolating response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Food availability has likely fallen below minimum human needs and on one metric is the worst since the 1990s famine. Food insecurity in North Korea is not only a humanitarian issue but also a strategic one. In this context, the diplomatic leverage conferred by aid is unclear, nor is North Korea’s priority as a recipient, in light of competing needs elsewhere. Resolution of North Korea’s chronic food insecurity would require changes in the regime’s domestic and foreign policy commitments, but this seems unlikely due to enablement by China and Russia.
Topic:
Food Security, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Crisis, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

8979. The WTO and vaccine supply chain resilience during a pandemic

Author:
Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Cross-border supply chains and international trade enabled the manufacturing and delivery of billions of vaccine doses to inoculate the world against COVID-19. At the same time, the pandemic revealed how the World Trade Organization (WTO) must change to become more useful in the face of a public health emergency. This paper describes the market failures—especially on the supply side—justifying the domestic subsidies and contracting arrangements used to accelerate vaccine research and development and to increase the scale of vaccine production to save lives, livelihoods, and economic activity during a pandemic. It highlights tradeoffs associated with the US subsidies and the priority-rated contracts written through the Defense Production Act under Operation Warp Speed. This case study reveals a rich environment in which cross-border supply chains exacerbate input shortages in ways that constrain vaccine production, highlighting the need for the WTO to embrace new forms of international policy coordination for pandemic preparedness and response. As part of a pandemic treaty, the paper proposes a plurilateral agreement on vaccine supply chain resilience that would include novel and enforceable disciplines for export restrictions, provisions to trigger coordinated subsidies across countries to jointly scale up vaccine output- and input-production capacity, and market surveillance initiatives on supply chain transparency.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Vaccine, COVID-19, WTO, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8980. How carbon tariffs and climate clubs can slow global warming

Author:
Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Slowing global warming requires countries to reduce carbon emissions, which imposes costs on their economies. To be effective, most countries must agree collectively to participate (e.g., the Paris Agreement, COP26). However, every country has an incentive not to comply and still reap the benefits of other countries’ actions—a classic free-rider problem. This paper evaluates recent recommendations to use trade policy to solve the free-rider problem associated with climate mitigation strategies. It shows that the European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM tariffs) are effective at offsetting the unfair competitive advantage of noncompliant countries in the markets of compliant countries but have little effect on the trade of noncompliant countries, who can divert trade to other noncompliers. CBAM tariffs alone have little impact on global CO2 emissions. The paper also examines “climate clubs” (coalitions of countries that agree to impose carbon taxes or other equivalent policies and impose punitive tariffs on non-club members to induce them to join the club). It finds that punitive climate club tariffs can be effective in inflicting significant damage on the economies of nonmembers, providing a strong incentive for them to join the club. The paper identifies trade dependence between club and non-club members as an important consideration for the success of a climate club. Club members that are strongly linked to non-club members suffer losses when the club punishes non-club members, which would make them hesitant to impose punitive tariffs on a major nonmember trading partner.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Tariffs, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8981. A reform strategy to transform energy: From piecemeal to systemwide change

Author:
Steven Fries
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change Mitigation highlights the vast gap between climate change mitigation actions and climate stabilization goals. But its broad policy prescriptions are likely to leave policymakers pondering what specific actions to take. Informed by accumulating evidence on transforming aspects of energy systems like power generation from solar and wind resources and battery electric cars, this paper develops a more pointed energy reform strategy than that of the IPCC to deliver the necessary systemwide changes. It makes the case for two unorthodox policies. One is for governments to provide, in addition to R&D supports, market-creating supports for early deployment of low-carbon technologies in initial markets. The second is to sequence emissions pricing after innovation and market-creating supports and differentiate this pricing across key energy sectors rather than imposing one economywide price. Compared with a single price, targeting higher emissions pricing on sectors that are costlier to decarbonize still promotes cost-effective emission cuts but limits adverse distributional impacts. The paper also considers nonprice barriers to change and ways to coordinate domestic reforms across countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Reform, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8982. Green energy depends on critical minerals. Who controls the supply chains?

Author:
Luc Leruth, Adnan Mazarei, Pierre Régibeau, and Luc Renneboog
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In light of the transition away from fossil fuel–based energy, this paper highlights the importance of understanding who controls vital parts of the global supply chains of critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs). Analysis of direct ownership does not reveal the real sources of control over the decisions of the company. To identify those sources, the authors use an index that measures the degree to which important shareholders can affect voting decisions. This analysis is not straightforward, because companies along the supply chain are not necessarily incorporated in the countries in which mining and production activities take place, and shareholders can exert influence through multiple layers of subsidiaries. The analysis reveals that China’s control over the global value chains involving critical minerals and REEs extends beyond what is commonly assumed. It also sheds light on environmental, social, and governance issues in the countries in which mining and/or production take place. The paper advocates increasing transparency regarding the sources of control to better assess and manage economic and geopolitical risks; enhancing recycling, to reduce dependency on foreign supply; avoiding protectionist and trade-reducing reactions; and encouraging research and development in order to speed up the adoption of technologies of substitution.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Supply Chains, Minerals, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8983. Why gender disparities persist in South Korea’s labor market

Author:
Karen Dynan, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, and Anna Stansbury
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Although the South Korean economy fared relatively well on the whole during the pandemic, the labor market consequences were uneven, with women experiencing worse outcomes than men. These gender disparities have reinforced and highlighted important longer-term gender-related challenges in the South Korean labor market. Despite an above-average level of female tertiary education, the gender pay gap in South Korea is at the top of the range among OECD countries. The labor force participation rate is 20 percentage points lower for women than for men, a difference that is about one-quarter larger than the average for high-income countries. These disparities—as well as fertility that is the lowest of any advanced economy country in the world—reduce South Korea's future economic prospects and will contribute to fiscal challenges as the population rapidly ages. The analysis in this paper suggests that the combination of low female employment and low fertility in South Korea reflects features of the traditional nature of work that create a particularly stark tradeoff for women between work and family and put pressure on women to choose one or the other. This tradeoff has increased in recent years because the opportunity cost of having a child has risen with the rapid growth in the tertiary education rate of South Korean women. Regressions based on individual-level data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) show that the entire gap in female labor force participation is driven by married women, particularly women with children. Unmarried women with no children are just as likely to be employed as men. A sizable "child earnings penalty" for South Korean women is fully explained by women dropping out of the labor force after the birth of their first child rather than reducing hours or hourly wages. Although South Korea has made strides toward making work more family friendly, there is scope to do better.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Labor Market, Fertility, and Gender
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

8984. Does WASH Infrastructures conforms to Nature Based Solutions? An exploration of FSTP at Shakhipur

Author:
Afsara Binte Mirza, Savio Rousseau Rozairo, Fatema Akhter, Ali Mohammad Rezaie, and Saleemul Huq
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
The report highlights challenges and achievements, potential avenues to expand our existing Faecal Sludge Treatment Plant (FSTP) at Shakipur which was recognized by the Bangladesh Government in the 8th FYP. WaterAid undertook this study in collaboration with International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD).
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Water, Infrastructure, Public Health, Nature, and WASH Projects
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

8985. Operationalization of the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage: Road to COP 27

Author:
Hafiz Khan, S. M. Saify Iqbal, Fahad Hossain, and Saleemul Huq
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
The Santiago Network on Loss and Damage (SNLD) was established at COP25/CMA2, “as part of the Warsaw International Mechanism,…for averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, to catalyse the technical assistance of relevant organizations, bodies, networks and experts, for the implementation of relevant approaches at the local, national and regional level, in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change” . At COP26/CMA3, Parties agreed to the six functions of SNLD. Furthermore, at COP26, Parties agreed to continue working to design effective institutional arrangements, operational modalities, and financial arrangements for SNLD to deliver its functions efficiently through subsequent SB negotiations, with a decision to be made at COP27/CMA4 in 2022.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8986. Just Transition for Bangladesh

Author:
Mizan R. Khan, Afsara Binte Mirza, and Saleemul Huq
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
In recent years, the just transition to a low carbon economy, supporting climate resilient development has become an issue of global concern for all the right reasons. The response measures to address climate change through switching to a cleaner energy mix and enhancing the adaptive capacity of society – businesses, workplaces and communities will entail significant disruptions particularly, to the lives and livelihoods of the working poor and the marginalised communities across the world. For the most vulnerable countries like Bangladesh, achieving a just transition is important. In countries like Bangladesh, which are not big users of fossil fuels, just transition as a response to climate change impacts relates more to strengthening the resilience and adaptive capacity of communities and rehabilitating the displaced people, ensuring their livelihoods and income opportunities. With this perspective, this policy brief reviews how workers and other vulnerable people are coping with the twin crises of climate change and COVID-19, and looks at the roles the Government of Bangladesh and the trade unions can play to strengthen the just transition measures.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Justice, Carbon Emissions, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

8987. The Intersection of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence Against Men, Boys, and LGBTQI+ Persons and Human Trafficking

Author:
Barbara Buckinx, Charu Lata Hogg, and Leona Vaugh
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The Nexus between Conflict-Related Sexual Violence against Men, Boys, and LGBTQI+ Persons and Human Trafficking workshop was organised on May 9, 2022, by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) at Princeton University in partnership with All Survivors Project (ASP), the Finance Against Slavery and Trafficking (FAST) Initiative at United Nations University-Centre for Policy Research, the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Fundamental and Human Rights at the University of Vienna, the Permanent Mission of Austria to the United Nations and the Permanent Mission of Liechtenstein to the United Nations. The Permanent Mission of Austria to the United Nations in New York hosted the event.
Topic:
LGBT+, Sexual Violence, Human Trafficking, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8988. Iranian Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine and Nuclear Options

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Ebrahim Mohseni, and Clay Ramsay
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The current survey is an Update, rather than a comprehensive check on Iranian public attitudes. This interim report covers findings on two unfolding security challenges – Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Ukraine – and their potential interconnections.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Public Opinion, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Ukraine, and Middle East

8989. Shifting Population Trends in Chicago and the Chicago Metro Area

Author:
William Scarborough, Amanda E. Lewis, and Ivan Arenas
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:
Few cities have seen such tremendous population changes as Chicago over the past century. By 1920, Chicago was the fastest growing city in the U.S. In 1950, the Chicago Metropolitan Area was the eighth largest in the world, with a larger population than Beijing, Mexico City, and Rio de Janeiro. Half a century later, population trends have changed dramatically. From 2000 to 2010, Chicago was the only U.S. city among the ten largest to lose population. Since 2010, Chicago’s population has grown slightly, but at rates lower than all other major U.S. cities. In this report, we explore these complex population trends for the city of Chicago and the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Factors driving population changes in the Chicago region are experienced differently across race. Drawing from a full century of data, we uncover distinct population trajectories for Black, Latinx, and white residents (the three largest groups in the area), showing how population growth for some groups often occurs alongside population decline for others. We also investigate the relationship of these population shifts to levels of inequality in the region, showing how population loss is often precipitated by increased racial inequality.
Topic:
Population, Inequality, Urban, Racism, and Suburbanization
Political Geography:
North America, Illinois, and United States of America

8990. Changing the Frame: Civic Engagement Through A Racial Equity Lens

Author:
Chris Poulos, Ivan Arenas, and Amanda E. Lewis
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:
Since Robert Putnam’s book Bowling Alone: America’s Declining Social Capital came out in 2000, policymakers, nonprofit funders, and pundits have sent out warning signals about declining civic engagement in the U.S. The 2010 Chicago Civic Health Index report began with the startling assessment that “Chicagoland’s civic health is on life support.” However, traditional measures of civic engagement tend to be rooted in a framework that privileges voting and particular forms of volunteering. This narrow focus obscures a broader range of civic activities disproportionately practiced by Black, Latinx, and working-class people. In this report, we provide a broader analysis of civic life using a racial equity lens. We take into account racial inequities and the practices and policies that reinforce them along with the perspectives of people engaged in the critical work of addressing these inequities. By incorporating a racial equity lens and the voices of these community actors into our analysis, we hope to broaden the discussion of what counts as civic engagement and better understand how to encourage it.
Topic:
Civic Engagement, Community Organizing, Racial Justice, and Structural Racism
Political Geography:
North America, Illinois, and United States of America

8991. Ukraine on the Way To the EU: Realities And Prospects

Author:
O. Pashkov, K. Markevych, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, L. Shanghina, and O. Shnyrkov
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The Ukrainian experience of European integration in the conditions of war is unique. The country resisting the large-scale armed Russian aggression, suffering huge human, financial and economic losses, acquired the status of a candidate for accession to the EU, continues European integration, deepens partnership with the EU in different sectors, implements recommendations of the European Commission and introduces provisions of the Agreement of Association into practice. The beginning of negotiations on accession to the EU, further implementation of pro-European reforms in different areas, adaptation to the European Union acquis, etc. are to follow
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8992. Political and Ideological Orientations of Ukrainian Citizens in the Conditions Of The Russian Aggression

Author:
Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, V. Zamiatin, M. Mishchenko, O. Ruzumnyi, P. Stetsiuk, and L. Shanghina
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The all-out Russian armed aggression against Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022, has fundamentally changed the situation in Ukraine and the world. Thousands of Ukrainians were killed, many fell victims to torture and inhuman treatment, millions left the country, saving their lives from the war, the aggressor forcibly deported from Ukraine thousands of adults and children.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Ideology, Civilians, Social Cohesion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8993. Protesting Against Crime and Insecurity: High-Risk Activism in Mexico's Drug War

Author:
Sandra J. Ley Gutiérrez
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
When do protests against crime and insecurity take place, regardless of the risks that such mobilization may entail? This paper argues that while violence provides an initial motivation for participating in protests, social networks play a fundamental role in incentivizing citizen mobilization against insecurity. Socialization within networks helps generate solidarity and empathy among participants, while at the same time transforming emotions associated with living in a violent context into potential for action. Also, through networks, individuals share information about opportunities for collective action and change their perceptions about the effectiveness and risks of such activism. These distinct mechanisms are valuable for the activation of protest against crime across levels of violence. Supporting evidence is derived from an original dataset on protest events in reaction to violence in Mexico between 2006 and 2012. Additionally, I rely on qualitative in-depth interviews and participant observation to illustrate the role of networks in protest against crime across several Mexican states. This paper contributes to the growing literature on criminal violence and political participation.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Crime, Social Movement, Protests, Violence, Social Networks, and Activism
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

8994. Democracy and Urban Political Culture in Spanish South America, 1810-1860

Author:
Paula Alonso and Marcela Ternavasio
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
“Democracy,” a word seldom used in public debate at the start of the nineteenth century and negatively associated with tumult, disorder, and direct rule, in a few decades became linked to representative government and increasingly employed with positive connotations. This paper argues that these conceptual changes should be explored in their political and social contexts, since the term “democracy” was invoked to (de)legitimate certain political practices and social sectors. Therefore, in exploring this non-linear process in Spanish America, these pages focus on the interactions between the emerging language of democracy and its varied meanings and uses in urban politics. These interactions were part of the factional disputes on how to implement the principle of popular sovereignty. Starting with an overview of selected emerging political practices during the Independence period, the paper then focuses on Lima and Buenos Aires, two regions with contrasting colonial pasts, responses to Spanish crises, and post-independence paths, showing how the concept of democracy could be put to varied uses according to different contexts and political objectives.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Culture, Democracy, Citizenship, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, Latin America, and Peru

8995. Democracy in the Middle East & North Africa

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are growing increasingly concerned about the potential problems associated with a democratic political system. Over the last decade, but particularly within the last five years, there has been a dramatic increase in the degree to which the region’s citizens believe democracies are bad for economic performance, stability, and decisiveness. In some countries, the degree to which concern about these potential problems has increased is especially dramatic. For example, Tunisians and Iraqis are now nearly 50 points more likely to say that democracy has some of these limitations than they were just a decade ago. Ultimately, citizens across MENA seek solutions to major problems in their lives. These include but are not limited to stagnant economies, high unemployment rates, rising cost of living, and, in some countries, internal instability. Until recently, many appeared to believe that democracy was a system that could solve such challenges. Over the last 75 years, democracies have tended to be wealthier, more politically stable, less corrupt, and more efficient at meeting the basic needs of citizens than authoritarian alternatives.1 In recent years, however, many non-democratic systems may appear more attractive, including the Chinese system that has led to rapid economic growth over the last 40 years. In this new global environment, many in MENA appear uncertain if democracy can effectively deliver solutions to their country’s problems.2 Moreover, looking at the experience of MENA countries over the last decade, it is perhaps not surprising that the region’s citizens have increasing doubts about the benefits of democracy. Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq are the countries across the region where elections have been the most meaningful over the past decade, with each having experienced a change in government based on results at the ballot box. Yet, their collective experience clearly demonstrates that democracy has not been a panacea for their respective challenges. Tunisia’s GDP per capita is now lower than it was in 2011, Lebanon has faced financial collapse, and Iraq suffered significant internal instability
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

8996. Public Views of Migration in MENA

Author:
Mohamed Abufalgha
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Across the Middle East and North Africa, sizable proportions of citizens are considering leaving their home countries. Desire to emigrate is high across the region and has largely remained at the pre-COVID19 levels. In most countries surveyed, at least a fifth of the population reports considering emigrating. The percentage is highest in Jordan where nearly half (48 percent) say they want to leave the kingdom, and lowest in Egypt where only 13 percent share this desire. Those who want to emigrate are more likely to be male, young, well-educated segments of the population, respectively. Youth across the region are significantly more likely to say they consider leaving their countries compared to their older counterparts. The gap between those ages 18-29 and those who are 30 years or older ranges from 32 points in Lebanon to six points in Mauritania. Similarly, those with college degrees or higher are more likely to want to emigrate compared to those with only a secondary education or less in all countries surveyed. The gap between the two groups is significant in several countries, especially in Sudan where it reaches the 26-point mark. Furthermore, men are more eager to leave than women in all countries except Lebanon, where both are equally interested in emigrating. People across MENA name a number of reasons for wanting to emigrate. The most commonly cited reason is for economic issues. The majority of potential migrants in all countries surveyed mention economic factors as the primary reason why they want to leave. These levels range from virtually all potential migrants in Egypt (97 percent) and Jordan (93 percent) to more than half in Libya (53 percent). While other reasons, including security factors, political reasons, and educational opportunities, are mentioned by minorities across the region; these reasons seem to correlate with each country’s political atmosphere, rather than being recurring themes across MENA. Potential migrants in MENA do not seem to agree on a destination. In no country is there a majority choosing one country as a preferred destination. Several factors contribute to people’s preferences. These factors include historical trends of migration, language, proximity, and perceived opportunities. While Jordanians, Lebanese, and Mauritanians prefer a move to North America, Egyptians and Sudanese prefer a Gulf country. North Africans tend to choose France or another European country as their preferred destinations.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8997. Public Views of the U.S.-China Competition in MENA

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the global competition between the U.S. and China has been on the rise. China’s increased global outlook, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has led to a significantly greater economic engagement with countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). At the same time, the U.S. continues its retrenchment from the region focusing on a broader pivot to Asia. How have these developments affected views toward both countries? Arab Barometer’s wave seven, the largest public opinion survey of its kind across MENA since the time of COVID, provides insight into these questions. Across MENA, China remains more popular than the U.S. Among the nine countries surveyed, only in Morocco is the U.S. more popular overall than China. In the remainder, China tends to be significantly more favored than the U.S. Yet, this story may be gradually changing. When asked about closer economic ties between their country and the two global powers, in the majority of countries surveyed, citizens are significantly less likely to say they want stronger ties with China than they were in 2018-19. In no country is there an increased desire for stronger economic ties with China while in multiple cases there has been a 20-point shift against China. By comparison, in most countries the desire for closer economic ties with the U.S. has increased or remained unchanged over the same period. This outcome suggests that BRI may not be having the intended effects, with citizens now moving away from China overall.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8998. Gender Attitudes and Trends in MENA

Author:
Mary Clare Roche
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Gender equality is far from achieved in MENA. Clear majorities in most countries surveyed hold that women should not play equal roles to men in both public and private spheres. Yet, there are also signs of change. In the past decade and a half of Arab Barometer surveys, public opinion across the Middle East and North Africa has trended towards gender equality. This is not only a result of younger generations with more liberal ideas of social norms becoming older, but an actual shift in perceptions across generations. In particular, agreement with the statements that “men are better at political leadership than women” and “university education is more important for men than women” has dropped sharply across many countries Arab Barometer has surveyed. The survey always examines perceptions of violence against women. There is a widespread perception that violence against women has been increasing in the region. This is in line with the World Bank’s assessment that gender-based violence has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in MENA.1 However, the gap between men and women’s perceptions of violence is significant, with women being far more likely to say the level of violence has increased. In order to appropriately address the issue of gender-based violence, conversations need to be facilitated across genders. Another challenge for women in MENA relates to employment opportunities. Labor force participation rates for women are the lowest of any region in the world.2 However, results from Arab Barometer make it clear that most citizens perceive structural barriers to have a greater impact than cultural barriers, meaning governments could more readily develop policies to address these challenges.
Topic:
Civil Society, Culture, Public Opinion, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

8999. The effectiveness of social protection in five African countries through normal times and times of crisis

Author:
Katrin Gasior, Iva V. Tasseva, and Gemma Wright
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We study the effectiveness of social protection benefits in reducing income and consumption poverty in five sub-Saharan African countries—Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia—in normal times and times of widespread economic crisis. Using tax–benefit microsimulation models with representative household survey data, first we estimate the coverage of benefits and their poverty-reducing effects in each country. Second, we study the ability of benefit automatic stabilizers to reduce losses in incomes and consumption in times of crisis, by simulating hypothetical reductions to earnings and employment. Although the coverage of benefits is fairly high in Ghana and Zambia, the poverty-reducing impact of benefits in all five countries is low in normal times. The effectiveness of benefits to stabilize income and consumption in times of crisis is also limited because many benefits are linked to proxies of income, not income itself, or have tight eligibility criteria. Social assistance programmes are typically unresponsive to losses in household earnings and employment and provide limited support for unemployed people.
Topic:
Poverty, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, and Income
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Ghana

9000. The state and the ‘legalization’ of illicit financial flows: Trading gold in Bolivia

Author:
Fritz Brugger, Joschka Proksik, and Felitas Fischer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Most research on illicit financial flows (IFFs) has focused on illicit outflows from developing countries and the role of non-state actors in generating IFFs. Less attention has been paid to processes and interfaces through which IFFs enter formal value chains—in effect being ‘legalized’ before leaving the country—or the crucial role of state institutions as gatekeepers. We develop a novel explanatory approach to account for the enabling role of state institutions in the ‘legalization’ of IFFs. Building on political settlement theory, we explain the performance of institutions in the regulation of IFFs as a function of political settlements. Taking the case of the Bolivian gold-trading sector, we examine how the process of ‘legalizing’ illicit value flows works in practice and analyse the motives and underlying conditions that lead state institutions to permit the formal export of gold shipments that have been illicitly sourced or transferred. Evidence from Bolivia indicates that the ‘legalization’ of illicit flows cannot be sufficiently explained by reference to corruption, illicit rent-seeking, or a general lack of administrative capacity. Rather, the process accommodates the interests of the cooperatives dominating the gold-mining sector, which are critical to maintaining the political settlement on which the incumbent government’s power is based. By maintaining a status quo of non-enforcement, legal ambiguity, and pervasive informality, gold-mining cooperatives are permitted to reap higher benefits from resource extraction at the expense of domestic revenue mobilization.
Topic:
Institutions, Mining, Trade, Value Chains, Illicit Financial Flows, and Gold
Political Geography:
Global Focus