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802. Informal Settlements on the Front Lines of Wildfire Risk in Bogotá
- Author:
- Natalia Torres Garzón
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Vulnerable dwellers were disproportionately affected by recent wildfires in Colombia's capital. As climate change exacerbates El Niño’s impact, affected families regroup amid the threat of additional blazes.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Informal Settlement, and Wildfires
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
803. The Racist Undertones of Bolivia’s Environmental Movement
- Author:
- Benjamin Swift and Laura Barriga Dávalos
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As massive wildfires swept across Bolivia in late 2023, a classist, racist, and capitalist public outcry deflected from the primary drivers of drought and deforestation.
- Topic:
- Environment, Capitalism, Political Movements, Racism, Deforestation, Drought, Wildfires, and Classism
- Political Geography:
- South America and Bolivia
804. Latin America’s New Right Wings: Shifting Ideologies, Transnational Ties
- Author:
- Ernesto Bohoslavsky and Magdalena Broquetas
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- New far-right forces pose a growing threat to democracy across Latin America and the Caribbean. Read more in the Spring 2024 issue of the NACLA Report on the Americas.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Democracy, Violence, Far Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
805. Israel and Genocide: Not Only In Gaza
- Author:
- Mark Lewis Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Israel and the United States share responsibility in perpetuating Guatemala's military-sponsored Silent Holocaust.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Counterinsurgency, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Guatemala, and United States of America
806. Honduras: A Narco-State Made in the United States
- Author:
- Laura Blume
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Although Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking in a New York court, the United States has yet to own up to its role in fostering state-sponsored drug trafficking in Honduras.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Coup, Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Narco-State
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America
807. Milei Moves Forward with the Gutting of Public Media
- Author:
- Daniel Cholakian
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The shutdown of a state-owned media agency reinforces the concentration of content production and threatens the right to information in Argentina.
- Topic:
- Media, Freedom of Press, State Media, and Javier Milei
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
808. Viva Palestina! NYC Student Encampments Spark National Rebellion
- Author:
- Mariana Navarrete Villegas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Latinx students are standing with Palestine. For them, the occupation and oppression of Palestine are inseparable from the U.S.- and Israel-backed militarization of Latin America.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Occupation, Protests, Political Movements, Students, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- New York, Palestine, Gaza, Latin America, North America, and United States of America
809. “They’re Making It up as They Go”: Inside the Response to Brazil’s Deadly Floods
- Author:
- Michael Fox
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Climate change and poor disaster preparedness have exacerbated the impacts of historic floods that have left parts of southern Brazil underwater.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, and Flood
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
810. “Oil for the Few” at Brazil's Export Ports
- Author:
- César Rodríguez Garavito
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For a small farmer in Rio de Janeiro state, a private port catering to the fossil fuel industry has brought a decade-long struggle to remain on the land.
- Topic:
- Oil, Exports, Fossil Fuels, Port, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and Rio de Janeiro
811. A Strategic Cross-Border Labor Alliance
- Author:
- David Bacon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A relationship between a U.S. and a Mexican union, forged in the face of NAFTA, has borne fruit over decades of struggle. Two leaders reflect on the importance of international solidarity.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Solidarity, Alliance, NAFTA, and Unions
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
812. Is Hugo Chávez to Blame for Venezuela’s Collapse?
- Author:
- Gabriel Hetland
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The country’s current economic and democratic crisis should not be used to erase Chávez’s impressive accomplishments in working to build 21st-century socialism.
- Topic:
- Socialism, Economic Crisis, Hugo Chavez, and Democratic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
813. The Far-Right Tide Reaches Uruguay
- Author:
- Magdalena Broquetas and Gerardo Caetano
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A new radical right with links to the dictatorship has made unprecedented gains. So far, the country’s strong democracy has tempered its worst impacts.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- South America and Uruguay
814. The Young Readers of the Argentine Right
- Author:
- Ezequiel Saferstein and Analía Goldentul
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As the world of “politically incorrect” books moves from niche to mainstream, the radicalized right’s culture war attracts a new generation of followers.
- Topic:
- Culture, Ideology, Radical Right, Culture War, and Books
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
815. Dominican Republic’s Neofascist Paramilitaries Double Down on Right-Wing Repression
- Author:
- Amarilys Estrella
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- New expressions of ultranationalist violence censoring Black women and migrants harken back to the Trujillo dictatorship. Anyone deemed a threat to Dominican values is a potential target.
- Topic:
- Migration, Race, Violence, Radical Right, Paramilitary, Neofascism, and Ultranationalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Dominican Republic
816. When the Earth Loses its Stewards
- Author:
- Alexia Gardner and Alex Reep
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- More than 1 million Colombians have been forced to flee their territories since the 2016 peace accords. As extractive industries and armed groups capitalize on displacement, biodiversity suffers.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Armed Forces, Displacement, Biodiversity, and Extractive Industries
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
817. “¡Viva la universidad, carajo!” Argentines March in Defense of Public Education
- Author:
- Roberto Hernández Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in an unprecedented mobilization to reject President Javier Milei's budget cuts to public universities.
- Topic:
- Education, Budget, Protests, Universities, and Javier Milei
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
818. Argentine Women Find Collective Solutions to a Punitive Prison System
- Author:
- Victoria Mortimer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Yo No Fui is a feminist and anti-prison artistic collective that supports and advocates for women and LGBTQ+ people inside and outside penitentiary complexes in Buenos Aires.
- Topic:
- Arts, Prisons/Penal Systems, Women, LGBT+, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
819. The Violent Politics of Bangladesh’s 2024 Elections
- Author:
- Pearl Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Elections in Bangladesh have historically been marked by violence between the country’s two dominant political parties, the ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The upcoming elections scheduled for 7 January are no different. Violence has already been on the rise in the months leading up to the elections, in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will seek re-election for the fourth consecutive term. Much of the recent unrest has centered around concerns about the AL’s ability to hold a free and fair election. The BNP has called for the formation of a neutral caretaker government to administer the elections. The AL has rejected this demand, giving way to increased BNP-led demonstration events1 that have often turned violent. The BNP’s decision to boycott the elections, motivated by its misgivings over the election process, suggests that the results are likely to be contested, increasing the risk of post-electoral violence. As the AL looks set to hold onto power, violence within the party is also cause for concern. Competition for power among AL factions can be seen in post-election periods as rivals seek party and government appointments.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Violence, Political Parties, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
820. Update: US and UK Strikes on Yemen Escalate Tensions
- Author:
- Luca Nevola
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 12 January, United States and United Kingdom air forces claimed to have carried out strikes on over 60 Houthi targets at 16 locations in Yemen. The operation was supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, members of the naval task force Operation Prosperity Guardian. The spokesperson of the Houthi military forces acknowledged the attack, mentioning that 73 raids targeted the capital Sanaa and the governorates of al-Hudayda, Taizz, Hajja, and Saada, resulting in five fighters dead and six injured. The multi-national operation sought to eliminate Houthi strategic infrastructure, thereby diminishing the Houthis’ offensive capabilities, and to retaliate following the group’s 9 January direct attack on US warships. However, it is unlikely that the strikes completely eradicated Houthi military capacity to target objectives in the Red Sea.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Strategic Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
821. The Complexities of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Sea Access Deal
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- From 9 December 2023 to 19 January 2024, ACLED records nearly 300 political violence events and at least 726 reported fatalities in Somalia. Most political violence centered in Lower Shabelle region, where al-Shabaab targeted security forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Mudug region had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 412. Lower Juba region followed, with at least 121 reported fatalities. Most of the fatalities came after battles between al-Shabaab and security forces. The most common event type was battles, with over 500 events, followed by explosions and remote violence, with nearly 180 events. Most of the events involved clashes between security forces and al-Shabaab.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, and Al Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa
822. Myanmar: Momentum from Operation 1027 Threatens Military Rule
- Author:
- Christian Jaffe and Christina De Paris
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Since launching Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance, alongside anti-coup forces, has made some of the most significant territorial gains since the 2021 coup, seizing military and police positions in Chin, Rakhine, northern Shan, and Mandalay. Failing to suppress Brotherhood gains, the military has turned to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling on civilians. Nonetheless, Operation 1027 has given momentum to other armed groups across the country, representing the most significant threat to the military junta since the 1 February 2021 coup.
- Topic:
- Coup, Armed Conflict, and Infographic
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
823. Farmer Protests Across Europe
- Author:
- Nichita Gurcov, Nicola Audibert, and Cristian Vlas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Farmer demands for more economic protection and less regulation have led to a surge in protests across Europe in the past thre emonths, and especially in the past three weeks. It is the largest wave since the Dutch farmers' protests against their government's plan to cut nitrogen pollution in July 2022.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Protests, Political Movements, and Farmers
- Political Geography:
- Europe
824. Kenya: Women and Lawyers Demonstrate Nationwide
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- From 13 January to 16 February 2024, ACLED records 80 political violence events and 52 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Samburu county, which witnessed increased violence involving bandits who loot valuables, including cattle. Turkana county had the highest number of reported fatalities due to civilian targeting by unidentified gunmen during raiding. The most common event type was riots, with 35 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 26 events.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Women, Protests, Demonstrations, and Lawyers
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa
825. Q&A: The Worsening Trend of Violence in Papua New Guinea
- Author:
- Deborah Alois
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On Sunday, 18 February, intertribal violence in the remote Highlands of Papua New Guinea resulted in the death of at least 49 people. This is the worst death toll in an escalating cycle of violence and political unrest in the past year. In this Q&A, Deborah Alois, ACLED’s Pacific region researcher based in the capital, Port Moresby, suggests that the trend will likely persist.
- Topic:
- Violence, Tribes, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and Papua New Guinea
826. Violent Escalations in Myanmar’s Rakhine State | ACLED Insight
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In Myanmar, territorial gains made by resistance groups have often led to indiscriminate airstrikes by the military junta. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for calm in Rakhine state on 19 March 2024, and ACLED data show just how widespread the phenomenon has become. From 1 November 2023 until 8 March, the military carried out 588 airstrikes across Myanmar, of which 19% were against targets in Rakhine state. Of all strikes recorded in Rakhine so far, 34% have targeted civilians. In Rakhine, military airstrikes started around November 2023 after fighting broke out between the military and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) as a part of Operation 1027, launched by the Brotherhood Alliance in October 2023.
- Topic:
- Civilians, Armed Conflict, Junta, and Airstrikes
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Rakhine
827. One Year of War in Sudan
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April, ACLED records 5,550 events of political violence and more than 15,550 reported fatalities in Sudan. Between 15 April 2023 and 5 April 2024, the most political violence was recorded in Khartoum state, with over 3,660 events and over 7,050 reported fatalities.1 In all of Sudan, ACLED records over 1,400 violent events targeting civilians since the war began. Civilians in Khartoum state faced the most targeted violence, with more than 650 incidents and at least 1,470 reported fatalities. Targeted violence in Darfur was twice as likely to be deadly for civilians than targeted violence in other states in Sudan, with 32% of all reported civilian fatalities in the country being recorded in Darfur.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Armed Forces, Civilians, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
828. A Decade After Chibok: Assessing Nigeria’s Regional Response to Boko Haram
- Author:
- Olajumoke (Jumo) Ayandele and Chika Charles Aniekwe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 14 April 2014, Boko Haram abducted more than 250 students, all girls, from their dormitories in Chibok, Borno state.1 Despite intensified offensives by the Nigerian military, the movement and its offshoot — the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) — have persisted as a significant threat to Nigeria and its neighboring states in the Lake Chad region. The audacious attacks perpetrated by both factions on civilians and security posts, coupled with the adverse effects of their activities on vulnerable populations, underscore their adaptability and resilience in the face of sustained national and regional military campaigns by the Lake Chad Basin Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) over the past decade.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Boko Haram, Regional Security, and Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Nigeria, and Chibok
829. India Votes 2024: A resurgent Hindu nationalism sets the stage for the upcoming elections, driving communal violence
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 22 January 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Ram temple in Ayodhya at the site where the Babri mosque once stood, marking the unofficial start of the general elections campaign by his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).1 The construction of the temple, which had served as a rallying cry for Hindu nationalists since the mosque’s demolition by a Hindu mob, stirred up sentiments of Hindu pride across the country, with the BJP leading the celebrations.2 On the other hand, the principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), boycotted the ceremony, accusing the BJP of politicizing religion.3 The fanfare surrounding the inauguration also overlooked the temple’s deadly origins, prompting concern over the turn toward majoritarianism in Indian society.4 The Babri mosque, constructed under the reign of the Mughal emperor Babar, was believed to have stood upon the birthplace of the Hindu Lord Ram, making it a point of contention between India’s Hindu and Muslim communities for nearly two centuries.5 Following nationwide mobilization by senior BJP leaders to reclaim the Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace), a Hindu mob demolished the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992.6 In the years since, the Ram Mandir (temple) remained a focal point of the Hindu nationalist movement, with the BJP at its forefront. A 2019 Supreme Court judgment awarding the disputed land to the Hindu applicants, finding they possessed a better title, ultimately paved the way for the temple’s construction, even as the court condemned the mosque’s demolition by the mob as an illegal act.7 The values of secularism and religious tolerance enshrined in India’s Constitution have long struggled against the realities of its demographics, where Hindus, comprising around 80% of the population, form the overwhelming majority.8 The gradual rise of the BJP, which views India foremost as a Hindu rashtra (nation), further increased the strain on these principles while also emboldening more radical Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) groups within the country.9 Among these is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary group that organized the Babri Masjid’s demolition.10 The BJP has strong ideological and organizational ties with the RSS; Modi himself began his political career as a religious volunteer with the group.11 The mainstreaming of Hindutva politics under the BJP has increased tensions between Hindus and religious minorities, sparking a resurgence in communal violence. India’s Muslim community, which is among the world’s largest Muslim populations, has borne the brunt of this violence. With the BJP galvanizing its supporters around the cause of Hindu nationalism ahead of the 2024 elections, the second part of ACLED’s India Elections Special Issue focuses on increased religious polarization as a driver for political violence across India.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Hindu Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
830. Between violence, geopolitical competition, and the quest for social justice: Chad’s road to elections
- Author:
- Valerio Colosio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following three years of transitional government since President Idriss Déby’s assassination, Chad will hold presidential elections on 6 May amid tight political controls by the incumbent leader. In this guest contribution, Dr. Valerio Colosio examines political violence in Chad through two generations of Déby rule and whether the election will confirm the status quo or trigger some deeper transformations, in a moment of big geopolitical changes in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- Elections, Geopolitics, Social Justice, Violence, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Chad, and Sahel
831. US Student Pro-Palestine Demonstrations Remain Overwhelmingly Peaceful | ACLED Brief
- Author:
- Bianca Ho and Kieran Doyle
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Student protests calling for divestment from Israel on university campuses around the United States are the latest sign of public discontent with the Israel-Palestine conflict. Some notable violent clashes have recently taken place, such as on the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) campus, where demonstrators and counter-demonstrators fought at a student encampment overnight on 30 April. However, between 7 October and 3 May, the overwhelming majority of student demonstrations — 97% — have remained peaceful. Demonstrations involving students now make up more than 40% of all US demonstration activity related to the conflict since it reignited in October 2023. Over 94% of the more than 1,360 student demonstrations held between 7 October 2023 and 3 May 2024 have shown support for Palestine.
- Topic:
- Political Movements, Students, Demonstrations, Divestment, and Universities
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America
832. What works for working couples? Work arrangements, maternal labour supply, and the division of home production
- Author:
- Ludovica Ciasullo and Martina Uccioli
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- We document how a change to work arrangements reduces the child penalty in labor supply for women, and that the consequent more equal distribution of household income does not translate into a more equal division of home production between mothers and fathers. The Australian 2009 Fair Work Act explicitly entitled parents of young children to request a (reasonable) change in work arrangements. Leveraging variation in the timing of the law, timing of childbirth, and the bite of the law across different occupations and industries, we establish three main results. First, the Fair Work Act was used by new mothers to reduce their weekly working hours without renouncing their permanent contract, hence maintaining a regular schedule. Second, with this work arrangement, working mothers’ child penalty declined from a 47 percent drop in hours worked to a 38 percent drop. Third, while this implies a significant shift towards equality in the female- and male-shares of household income, we do not observe any changes in the female (disproportionate) share of home production.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Work, and Home Production
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
833. Red herrings: A model of attention-hijacking by politicians
- Author:
- Margot Belguise
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- Politicians often use “red herrings” to distract voters from scandals. When do such red herrings succeed? I develop a model in which an incumbent runs for re-election and potentially faces a scandal. Some incumbents enjoy telling “tales” (attention-grabbing stories) while others use tales to distract voters from the scandal. Multiple equilibria can arise: one with a norm of tale-telling in which red herrings succeed and another with a norm against tale-telling in which they fail. Increased media attention to tales has a non-monotonic effect, facilitating red herrings at low attention levels, but serving a disciplinary function at high levels.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Media
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
834. Emile Bustani Middle East Seminar: Gaza: ‘Can Anyone Hear Us?’
- Author:
- Sara Roy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Emile Bustani Middle East Seminar: “Gaza: ‘Can Anyone Hear Us?’" Dr. Sara Roy, Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Harvard University
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
835. Starr Forum: China: The Rise and Fall of the EAST
- Author:
- Yasheng Huang and Will Knight
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Speaker: Yasheng Huang, Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, and faculty director of the MIT-China Program at the Center for International Studies. Discussant: Will Knight, senior writer, Wired magazine, covers artificial intelligence and other emerging technology. He was previously a senior editor at MIT Technology Review, where he wrote about fundamental advances in AI and China’s AI boom.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Geopolitics, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
836. Mapping exile: Bridging knowledge and advocating for scholars at risk
- Author:
- Pascale Laborier
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- About the speaker: Pascale Laborier is a professor of political science at Paris Nanterre whose research over the past decade has focused on the history of scholars in exile. Some of her recent scholarship has focused on refugee scholars from Uruguay and Chile during the dictatorships. She is one of the founders of PAUSE, a French organization with private and government funding that helps refugee scholars in France find university jobs and funds them for their first year of teaching. Together with an artist-photographer she has created an exposition on these themes that will be shown at MIT in April. The exposition has been shown in Germany, France, and Belgium and currently in Uruguay and Chile.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Advocacy, Exile, and Scholars
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
837. Dying Abroad: The Political Afterlives of Migration in Europe
- Author:
- Osman Balkan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- On any given day, the remains of countless deceased migrants are shipped around the world to be buried in ancestral soils. Others are laid to rest in countries of settlement, sometimes in cemeteries established for religious and ethnic minorities, where available. For immigrants and their descendants, perennial questions about the meaning of home and homeland take on a particular gravitas in death. When the boundaries of a nation and its members are contested, burial decisions are political acts. Building on multi-sited fieldwork in Berlin and Istanbul – where the author worked as an undertaker – Dying Abroad offers a moving and powerful account of migrants' end-of-life dilemmas, vividly illustrating how they are connected to ongoing political struggles over the stakes of citizenship, belonging, and collective identity in contemporary Europe.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugees, Identity, and Death
- Political Geography:
- Europe
838. MIT reflects on COP28
- Author:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This is the Zoom recording of the COP28 debrief and reflections event held on January 17th at the MIT Center for International Studies. Professional captioning will be added soon. Approximately 30 members of the MIT community were among the 100,000 attendees at COP28. While there were some major takeaways from the conference that have already been shared in the media and more that will continue to be published into the new year, much of the progress happened on a smaller scale in meetings and side events. Some attendees gathered to debrief and learn about some of the specific interests and goals that members of the MIT delegation had in attending the COP, and the value that they gained from participating.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Conference, Sustainability, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
839. RBPI and the Study of IR: Fostering a Multifaceted Platform for Global Dialogue, Debate and Academic Cooperation
- Author:
- Haroldo Ramanzini Junior, Antônio Carlos Lessa, and Wilton Dias
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving landscape of international politics, the challenges this scenario presents for the field of International Relations (IR) and the pivotal role played by Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI) in shaping both academic knowledge and policy frameworks. The study aims to achieve two primary objectives. First, to contextualize the significant shifts in international politics in the last few years, such as the rise of China and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, while advocating for interdisciplinary approaches and highlighting the contributions of Latin American, particularly Brazilian, scholars to global academic debates. Second, to trace the history, evolution, and international impact of RBPI since its inception in 1958, emphasizing its role in leveraging the standards of academic publishing in Brazil and Latin America, fostering international collaborations, and influencing policy decisions. The paper proposes that RBPI serves as an indispensable platform for advancing rigorous academic inquiry and offers a more inclusive perspective on international relations, thereby having a lasting impact on both the academic and policy landscapes globally
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Research, and Publishing
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Global South
840. Domestic regimes and national preferences as factors of regionalism’s crisis. The case of Guatemala’s regional integration policy
- Author:
- Francisco Santos-Carillo and Luis Andrés Padilla Vassaux
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The article analyzes the influence of internal factors in the Central American integration crisis, based on Guatemalan politics and from a liberal intergovernmental approach. The results confirm the relationship between national preferences, some alignment with the preferences of partner states, and the results and effects of the process. For Guatemala, integration is an ideational commitment conditioned by the absence of negative externalities for the interests of governments and other key actors. National preferences limited the scope and determined the institutional design. The identity commitment and the creation of regional institutions seem to be insufficient for integration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Regional Integration, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala
841. Spatiotemporal enabling/disabling factors of local agency in peacebuilding processes. Analysis from present time history and critical peace geography
- Author:
- Gonzalo Vitón
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to analyze how there are spatiotemporal factors that can disable/enable local agency capacities in peacebuilding processes. Those local agency capacities depend on the context, which are shaped both by time and space. The traditional conception of time and space allows only a narrow understanding that reduces the possibilities of agency, and to rethink and broaden the concept of time and space I rely on History of the Present Time and Critical Geography. This paper illustrates the theoretical debate through the women’s agency capacities in the Mozambican peace process. This example demonstrates the complexities and multifaceted disabling/enabling capacity of spatiotemporal factors for the exercise of agency and provide some guidelines to identify them.
- Topic:
- Women, History, Peacebuilding, and Agency
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
842. “The thing with sexual exploitation”: gender representations and the Brazilian military in an UN peace mission
- Author:
- Izadora Xavier do Monte
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Based on thematic analysis of 40 semi-directive interviews, observation in Port-au-Prince and Brasilia and following a standpoint feminist and international political sociology approach, the article aims to explore gender representations among Brazilian peacekeepers. Using the Brazilian experience in Haiti as a case study, the article seeks to show how the UNSC agenda on Women, Peace and Security is appropriated by actors on the field. It argues that peacekeepers seek to reduce dissonance between the existing military understanding of gender and UN expectations. UN “gender mainstreaming” is reinterpreted to accommodate naturalizing and traditional discourses on not only women, but also men.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Gender Based Violence, Gender, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, Caribbean, and Haiti
843. Regionalism and the Agenda 2030: Inequality and Decent Work in Mexico
- Author:
- Karina Lilia Pasquariello Mariano, Roberto Goulart Menezes, and Marcela Franzoni
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The present study analyzes the limits of regionalism in achieving SDG 8, with a focus on the Mexican reality. It is based on the hypothesis that the role of the national government is decisive for incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in cases of regionalism based on an intergovernmental dynamic. We argue that NAFTA had a limited impact on improving working conditions in Mexico, as it only affected export-oriented regions and sectors. Since 2019 there has been an increase in the minimum wage, which can be explained not only by enforcing the USMCA, but also by a compatibility between internal and external agendas. Therefore, the case of Mexico allows us to affirm that the national government was decisive for the incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in the context of intergovernmental agreements.
- Topic:
- Inequality, NAFTA, Regionalism, Work, and Agenda 2030
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
844. Mercosur and Environment: progress in promoting the Sustainable Development Goals and the 2030 Agenda
- Author:
- Regiane Nitsch Bressan and Tatiana de Souza Garcia
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This article aims to reveal how the UN’s 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially the environmental ones, are being incorporated into Mercosur. Firstly, the paper presents a brief evolution of the environmental agenda in the history of Mercosur. Then, to subsidise the analysis, using quantitative data, we discussed the gradual incorporation of the SDGs in the different Mercosur bodies. In order to understand the evolution of the environmental SDGs, the research required the collection and analysis of qualitative data within the framework of the Environment Working Subgroup (SGT-6), which revealed the main environmental issues and their interrelationship with the 2030 Agenda. Finally, Brazil’s role and the prospects for the environmental agenda in Mercosur are discussed.
- Topic:
- Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, Regional Integration, Mercosur, and Agenda 2030
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
845. Regionalism Beyond Land Borders: Strengthening regional integration in Latin America and the Caribbean through blue economy policies
- Author:
- Thauan Santos and Charles S. Colgan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to highlight the key role of the blue economy in fostering regional integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) based on the 2030 Agenda. By proposing a “beyond the boxes” approach, SDG 14 is not the only driver that stands out. Hence, we propose a regionalism beyond the state-centric and land borders, which will require reflecting on and rethinking theories, policies, and practices related to the foundations of regional integration, IR, and the 2030 Agenda itself. The methodology combines UN reports and data from ECLAC, WRI, FAO, UNEP-WCMC, UNESCOMAB, WWF, UN-DESA, and NOAA.
- Topic:
- Environment, Regional Integration, Oceans and Seas, Regionalism, and Blue Economy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
846. South Africa as a Leading Regional Power in Africa? An Analysis of the Implementation of the African Union, Auda-Nepad and Agenda 2063
- Author:
- Murilo Gomes da Costa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The article analyzes South Africa’s role in the African Union’s Agenda 2063. It examines South Africa’s position as a leading regional power post-apartheid. The study contends that Pretoria has developed a strategy towards its region. The argument is supported by a descriptive analysis of the implementation of Auda-Nepad and South Africa’s efforts to broaden the thematic scope of the AU. The results show that South Africa’s strategy as a leading regional power in Africa has been achieved through Pretoria’s role as a paymaster in both the AU and Auda-Nepad, alongside the development of its own Agenda 2063 projects.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, African Union, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
847. EU-LAC inter-regionalism as a driver to achieve the environmental Sustainable Development Goals
- Author:
- Bruno Theodoro Luciano and Miguel Ayuso
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This article assesses how environmental issues have been incorporated into the strategic association between the European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean. It analyses whether the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals are reflected in the EU-CELAC declarations, and what bi-regional programmes and projects have been developed in relation to the environmental SDGs. The analysis shows how the environment has become a key priority in both the political dialogue and development cooperation pillars, although it has only recently been included in the trade pillar, and in an incipient way.
- Topic:
- Environment, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, Regional Integration, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe
848. Bottom-up regionality and the Sustainable Development Goals: civil society organizations shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in Latin America
- Author:
- Thiago Gehre Galvão, Mairon G. Bastos Lima, and Rodrigo Ramiro
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Civil society organizations (CSOs) are shaping the formation of a bottom-up regionality in the context of the 2030 Agenda implementation. Using the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region as a case, this article unravels the pivotal role they play in the diffusion and incorporation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing from qualitative content analysis of official documents, critical discourse analysis of primary and secondary sources, and semi-structured interviews, we understand CSOs as institutional entrepreneurs with specific motivations to engage and influence the regional governance process. While many challenges persist, civil society organizations are shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in LAC.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Sustainable Development Goals, Regionalism, and Agenda 2030
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
849. Why can ASEAN Promote Sustainable Development Cooperation?
- Author:
- Cao Ting and Luo Yongkun
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- ASEAN has arguably been one of the most successful regionalisms, which since its inception has undergone several profound challenges, including the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In response to the fierce competition among major powers and the economic and social challenges, ASEAN has concentrated on sustainable development to promote unity and centrality. Sustainable development cooperation aligns with the interests of ASEAN states and helps to promote the construction of the ASEAN community and strike a balance of power on the world stage. Nevertheless, there may be a need for more efforts to resolve the challenges facing sustainable development.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, Sustainable Development Goals, Regionalism, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
850. US Hegemony in Latin America: Think Tanks and the Formation of Consensus about the Chinese Presence
- Author:
- Luciana Wietchikoski and Livia Peres Milani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, U.S. government agencies have defined the Chinese presence in Latin America as a challenge, which has organized foreign policy towards the region. Departing from a neo-Gramscian approach, this paper investigates the bibliographical production of U.S. think tanks and seeks to understand the construction of consensus about the Chinese presence in Latin America. The methodology is based on content analysis and we identified two main narratives: in the first, the Chinese presence is presented as a threat to U.S. regional hegemony; in the second, the Chinese adaptation to liberal precepts is sought. There are therefore nuances in how the Chinese power is perceived, although the discourses remain restricted to the promotion of capitalism and neoliberalism under U.S. leadership.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Think Tanks
- Political Geography:
- China, Latin America, North America, and United States of America
851. How does IR study children? A Brazilian perspective from the field
- Author:
- Patricia Nabuco Martuscelli, Giovanna Ayres Arantes de Paiva, Camilla de Azevedo Pereira, and Bruna Karoline Pinto da Silva
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Children, or people under 18 years-old, represent 30% of the world population. While Childhood Studies gained attention in the last decades, in Brazil this topic remains incipient. In 2022 the Group of Studies on Childhoods and International Relations (GEIRI) mapped the open depositories for dissertations of Brazilian universities with IR programmes to understand how children appear as an IR issue. Using the framework of Global IR, this article presents two main contributions by analysing this novel data: a) ontological contribution by understanding Childhood Studies as a Global IR topic and Brazilian practices and interactions to see IR outside of a Western perspective and b) methodological contribution by analysing how students contribute to the IR knowledge production on Children and IR in Brazil mostly as international security and human rights issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Human Rights, Children, and Research
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
852. Deep fires and the British strategic posture: does the war in Ukraine validate it?
- Author:
- Eduardo Munhoz Svartman, Augusto W.M. Teixeira Junior, and Tamiris Pereira dos santos
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The Russia-Ukraine war presented an unintended chance to assess the British strategic posture regarding deep fires. The deployment of guided rocket artillery systems by Ukrainian forces in 2022 altered the land battle dynamics significantly, especially with the modern Western deep fires by the US, UK, and France. This study analyses the evolution of the UK defence policy and land force structure and the impact of deep fires in the first phase of the war, and discusses challenges ahead of Britain due to the ongoing conflict. This perspective might apply to other cases, including Brazil, as we drew upon critiques mainly directed to the over-reliance on technology over combat mass due to the re-emergence of conventional warfare.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, and Ukraine
853. Regional Governance in Latin America: The More the Merrier?
- Author:
- Cristiane Lucena Carneiro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Latin America regional governance is characterized by institutional complexity, largely the consequence of overlapping membership and mandates. The dominant view that overlap in Latin American regional organizations is problematic warrants further investigation. This article explores instances of overlap and parallelism within Latin American regional governance institutions to argue that growing complexity may be associated with normative progress. The article offers a portrait of overlapping regionalism based on data from the Regional Organizations Competencies Dataset (ROCO). The analysis confirms: institutional overlap has increased since 1945; it identifies the critical junctures that catapulted this process which is loosely associated with normative progress.
- Topic:
- Governance, Institutions, International Order, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
854. The Realist debate in the context of the War in Ukraine: balancing dynamics, international change and strategic calculus
- Author:
- Layla Ibrahim Abdallah Dawood and Eugenio Pacelli Lazzarotti Diniz Costa
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The article discusses Mearsheimer’s interpretation of Russia’s use of force against Ukraine based on concepts and categories of Offensive Realism. It is argued that external balancing lost its place during unipolarity. However, Russian internal balancing is one of the factors that enabled the current conflict, and Russia’s rapprochement with China diminishes the prospects for conflict in Asia, allowing Russian military efforts to be concentrated in the European theater. Additionally, the decision to use force will be analyzed in its strategic dimension. It is concluded that Russia’s activities against Ukraine are entirely consistent with Offensive Realism, despite of Mearsheimer’s allegations contrarywise.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Realism, Russia-Ukraine War, and Balance of Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
855. Simulations of the United Nations Veto Initiative: Process, Documents, and Prospects for Reform
- Author:
- Barbara Buckinx, TJ Eyerman, Charles Fraser, Anuj Krishnan, Elmir Mukhtarov, Alejandra Ramos, and Aly Rashid
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- In April 2023, a year after its adoption, the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination held the first-ever simulation of the United Nations (UN) veto initiative (UNGA RES/76/262). A subsequent simulation took place in March 2024. Passed amid criticism of UN Security Council inaction in response to the war in Ukraine, the veto initiative resolution aims to enhance the effectiveness, accountability, and transparency of the UN when it comes to matters of international peace and security. In the simulations, we tested scenarios for the implications of the veto initiative for the relationship between the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, and for the legitimacy of the UN as a whole.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Governance, Reform, UN Security Council, Simulation, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
856. Is There Hope for Gaza Under International Law?
- Author:
- Abigail Flynn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Why has international law failed to hold Israel responsible for its destruction of Gaza? It was built to enable the colonizer, not to protect the colonized, explains legal expert Jason Beckett.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, United Nations, International Court of Justice (ICJ), Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
857. The EU’s Response to the Gaza War Is a Tale of Contradiction and Division
- Author:
- Martin Konečný
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Since the Hamas attacks on October 7 and the start of Israel’s retaliatory offensive in the Gaza Strip, European Union (EU) member states have broadly split into three camps. At one end are those who have professed to stand “on the side of Israel”, flying its flag on government buildings, backing its military campaign, and avoiding criticism even after the Israeli army flattened most of Gaza and killed thousands of Palestinian civilians. The Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary stand out in this camp, followed by Germany. At the other end of the spectrum are governments that proclaim to stand “on the side of peace” and, while strongly condemning Hamas, have been calling for a ceasefire and openly criticizing Israel for violating international humanitarian law. Belgium, Spain, and Ireland are the most vocal members of this moderate camp, followed by France and several others. The third, middle camp, is made up of those who are somewhere in between the first two groups: siding with Israel but in less absolute terms than the first camp. It would be wrong to label the moderate camp as “pro-Palestinian”. The fact is that there is no pro-Palestinian camp at the level of EU governments: none of them has hoisted Palestinian flags or primarily condemned the Israeli occupation or its devastating Gaza offensive, as many countries in the so-called Global South have done. The only vocal exception may be Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz of the leftwing Sumar party who has denounced “Israeli apartheid” and called for sanctions and an arms embargo against Israel. However, her statements do not represent the position of the government as a whole.
- Topic:
- European Union, Hamas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
858. How American Public Opinion on Palestine Shifted
- Author:
- Geneive Abdo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Overlapping connections among young activists struggling for the rights of women, 2SLGBTQIA+, Black Lives Matter, indigenous Indians, Latinos, and all people of color have produced a dramatic shift in how the Palestinian–Israeli conflict is being perceived in the United States
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Solidarity, Protests, Ceasefire, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
859. A Palestinian Gandhi or an Israeli de Gaulle? Why the Context of Violence Matters
- Author:
- Sharif Elmusa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Questioning why there hasn’t been a Palestinian Gandhi or Mandela ignores the history and context in which Palestinian resistance occurs, especially the abiding violence visited on the Palestinians since 1917
- Topic:
- Colonialism, Violence, BDS, Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Nelson Mandela, and Charles de Gaulle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, India, Israel, South Africa, Palestine, and West Bank
860. Israel’s Ever-Existing Plan to Depopulate the Gaza Strip
- Author:
- Nadia Naser-Najjab
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The recent violence in Gaza may be unprecedented in its intensity, but the Zionist rhetoric underlying Israel’s current brutal strategy has roots going back much earlier than October 7
- Topic:
- Zionism, Ethnic Cleansing, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Depopulation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
861. Security and Peace After the War in Gaza
- Author:
- Ibrahim Awad
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Is the two-state solution feasible? In order to pursue such a policy, the international community must be able to overcome three main points of contention: Israeli occupation, the creation of a Palestinian state, and the role of Hamas
- Topic:
- Security, Self Determination, Refugees, Hamas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Two-State Solution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
862. Covering the Palestinian–Israeli Conflict: Between Exasperation and Empathy
- Author:
- Lawrence Pintak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- A personal reflection of American involvement in the region’s wars through the eyes of a correspondent
- Topic:
- Media, Journalism, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Empathy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
863. A Revived Arab Peace Initiative from Saudi Arabia Could Save the Middle East
- Author:
- Aziz Alghashian
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Understanding Saudi pragmatism toward Israel, and its historical balancing act, is crucial for reviving the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and countering the Abraham Accords’ erasure of Palestinian rights
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Peace, Abraham Accords, and Pragmatism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
864. Hamas, ISIL, and Israel: An Exercise in Comparison
- Author:
- Ayman Zaineldine
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- One of Israel’s main responses to the October 7 attacks was to declare that “Hamas is ISIL,” and that the world should thus unite in support for Israel to eliminate it. But others are not sure, and ask whether Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, and its practices as an occupying power, is even more worthy of global sanction
- Topic:
- Islamic State, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
865. Gaza: Israel’s Unwinnable War
- Author:
- Richard Silverstein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Even if, for argument’s sake, it achieved its war goals, Palestinian resistance will exist wherever there are Palestinians—whether in Sinai, Beirut, Ankara, Tehran or Amman
- Topic:
- Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Axis of Resistance, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
866. Radicalization and Regional Instability: Effects of the Gaza War
- Author:
- Mamoun Fandy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As Israel attempts to reestablish its identity as a regional deterrent by destroying Gaza, the effects of its campaign cascade through the region, shifting political alignments, and generating new concerns over radicalization and conflict spillover
- Topic:
- Radicalization, Deterrence, Instability, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
867. Genocide on the Docket at the Hague
- Author:
- Omar Auf
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- International law is a tool for both oppression and emancipation, says AUC law professor Thomas Skouteris in this Q&A as he breaks down the intricacies of the ICJ’s January 26 order for provisional measures in South Africa v. Israel, and elucidates the present and future of international law.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Israel, South Africa, Palestine, Gaza, and The Hague
868. UNRWA Funding is Burdened with Conditionality
- Author:
- Anne Irfan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The UN agency’s essential humanitarian role lies in the balance thanks to the political contingencies of its donors.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Donors, Funding, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
869. UNRWA After October 7: Building a Comprehensive Response Framework for Palestinian Refugees
- Author:
- Lex Takkenberg
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- UNRWA’s future cannot be considered in isolation—a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder approach, with displacement issues at its center, is now necessary.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Displacement, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
870. Navigating the Politics of Humanitarian Aid in Gaza
- Author:
- Shatha Abdulsamad
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Despite Israeli efforts to destroy it, UNRWA remains an embodiment of international responsibility for the question of Palestinian refugees, and a reminder of their inalienable right of return.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Funding, United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), and Right of Return
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
871. Bridging Local and Global Assistance for Palestinian Refugees in Egypt
- Author:
- Maysa Ayoub
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- What happens to those who are beyond UNHCR and UNRWA’s scope of operation?
- Topic:
- Refugees, UNHCR, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt
872. Death or Detention: Israel’s Attacks on Journalism Follow a Lethal Pattern
- Author:
- Jodie Ginsberg
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Israel’s campaign of targeting and silencing the media has hidden its crimes under a dark shadow
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Media, Journalism, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
873. The Gendering of Sudan’s Brutal War
- Author:
- Nafisa Bedri and Tamsin Bradley
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Any analysis of the sexual violence and unfolding genocide must highlight the extent to which the media is still using an orientalist gaze to report on the war in Sudan
- Topic:
- Civil War, Genocide, Human Rights, Women, Media, Sexual Violence, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
874. Time to Renew an Old Promise? A Brief History of Global South Solidarity with Palestine
- Author:
- Bidisha Biswas
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Anti-colonial and post-colonial politics have shaped global understandings of the Israel-Palestine conflict for decades, beyond the narrow vision of many Western countries
- Topic:
- Post Colonialism, Solidarity, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, South Africa, Palestine, and Global South
875. Children’s “Right to Play” In Gaza
- Author:
- Ana Davis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Like children everywhere, Gaza’s boys and girls should be playing and enjoying their childhoods, but the actions of the Israeli government and military make that impossible
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Children, Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Play
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
876. In Targeting UNRWA, Israel Aims to Destroy the Right of Return
- Author:
- Daoud Kuttab
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Hoping to capitalize on world sympathy after October 7, Israel tried to use its allies to defund and dismantle the UN relief agency.
- Topic:
- October 7, 2023 Gaza War, United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), and Right of Return
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
877. Transitional justice and women’s representation in peacebuilding: Myanmar and the case for Feminist Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Nang Moet Moet and Clara Bradley
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- February 2024 marks three years since the start of the military coup which ignited Myanmar’s Spring Revolution. For the first time in the nation’s history, women have been at the forefront of the resistance, making up over 60 percent of the resistance movement.i The unprecedented number of women in the movement signals women’s refusal to live under patriarchal military rule. The modest yet critical gains made towards gender equality during the democratic period enabled a generation of women to see the value of their participation in broader functions of society. Reverting back to military rule would not just hinder progress on gender equality, it threatens the hardwon fundamental rights of women and girls. In a country shaped by decades of militarization, this war, like those before it, has compounded women’s experience of patriarchal violence. As Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) and the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) inch closer to defeating the Myanmar military (herein referred to as the ‘junta’), attention is turning to post-coup peace and nation building processes. At this important juncture in Myanmar’s political history, women are demanding adequate representation and genuine participation in peacebuilding processes, including transitional justice initiatives that adequately address violence against women in conflict. Over the decades of political instability, women have been repeatedly told that a democratic union must come before gender equality.ii The de-prioritisation of women’s participation in public life is embodied in the Constitution 2008, which clearly proscribes that ‘nothing in this section shall prevent appointment of men to positions that are naturally suitable for men only.’iii This subjugation of women’s rights to political stability is mirrored in traditional foreign policy approaches that prioritise the security of the nation state, rather than the security of the individuals within that state. A feminist foreign policy approach inverts the traditional hierarchy, understanding that security is not possible absent the conditions required for all people to flourish. Without addressing the structural roots of pervasive violence that has oppressed both women and ethnic minorities in Myanmar society for decades, there can be no durable peace. Countries that have adopted a feminist foreign policy – or those with a values-based foreign policy such as Australia – must invest in, and advocate for, the inclusion of women from all ethnic groups in future peace and transitional justice processes.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Women, Transitional Justice, Feminism, and Representation
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
878. The Women’s Rights Movement in Papua New Guinea: where we came from, where we are and where we wish to go’
- Author:
- Orovu Sepoe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- This new collaborative research highlights the strengths, challenges and powerful role of the women’s rights movement in PNG. The WEAVERS Research Report is the outcome of research conducted by Dr Orovu Sepoe (Lead Researcher) and a steering committee of diverse PNG women’s rights advocates and rights actors. It delves deep into the PNG women’s rights movement to understand “where we came from, where we are, and where we wish to go”. The research team engaged with 38 women’s rights organisations from five research sites across PNG. The research reveals a strong cultural precedent of women coming together in PNG – Meri Bung in Tok Pisin – providing a strong foundation for today’s women’s rights movement. Research findings also highlight that despite fragmentation, weak institutional linkages and funding constraints, women’s rights organisations share a “collective consciousness” – meaning they have a shared understanding of their values and purpose that informs their perseverance in taking action to advance and protect women’s rights. The research was wholly locally-led and guided by the steering committee, which worked collaboratively across all research phases and had representation from disability inclusion and human rights organisations, faith-based groups, and groups representing LGBTQI+ people. The report provides future directions and recommendations for the women’s rights movement, governments, supporters and partners.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Social Movement, Women, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Papua New Guinea and Indo-Pacific
879. Palestine: Public Opinion Report 2023, Part 1
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Domestically, AB8 Shows most Palestinians did not support Hamas on the eve of October the 7th war; but the war led to a significant rise in Hamas’ popularity and a significant decline in the standing of the PA leadership among the Palestinians. The war also led to a significant rise in support for armed struggle in the West Bank. Nonetheless, after the eruption of the war, Hamas did not gain a majority support in either Gaza or the West Bank and support for the two-state solution did not decline These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side. The period leading up to the poll witnessed a number of important developments, including the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords. The period saw a rise in the number of Israeli incursions into Palestinian cities and refugee camps, particularly in the northern parts of the West Bank. During this period, Palestinian factional leaders met in City of El Alamein in Egypt in the presence of President Abbas but failed to agree on a joint statement. During this period, settler terrorist acts in Palestinian areas of the West Bank increased, as did armed attacks by Palestinians against settlers and Israelis. Finally, there have been press reports that there are US-Saudi negotiations to reach an agreement to normalize Saudi-Israeli relations and that Palestinian-Saudi and Palestinian-American meetings have been held to set Palestinian conditions for this normalization agreement. This report is the first in a series of reports that cover the findings of the current wave of AB. It addresses two important issues covered by AB8: the domestic balance of power in the Palestinian territories and the state of Palestinian-Israeli relations. While the focus is placed on the findings of AB8 regarding these two topics, the report sets to compare these findings with those obtained by PSR in two of its regular polls, one conducted before AB8 and one after it. The poll conducted after AB8 came several weeks after the launch of Hamas’ October the 7th offensive against Israeli towns and military bases bordering the Gaza Strip and the Israeli launch of the current ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. In the meanwhile, in the West Bank, the Israeli army blocked or restricted Palestinian access to main roads while settler attacks increased against vulnerable towns and villages in various parts of the B and C areas.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Hamas, October 7, and Balance of Power
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
880. Palestine: Public Opinion Report 2023, Part 2
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Palestinians see the Israeli occupation as the most critical threat facing Palestine and their most preferred countries are Turkey, Qatar, and China. In a comparison between China's and U.S. foreign policies, the Palestinian public views China's policies more positively than those of the U.S. on all issues at hand. Wide-ranging opposition to Arab normalization with Israel remains as strong as it was two years ago, but most express optimism about the world's solidarity with the Palestinians, and the vast majority expresses opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side. The period leading up to the poll witnessed a number of important developments, including the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords. The period saw a rise in the number of Israeli incursions into Palestinian cities and refugee camps, particularly in the northern parts of the West Bank. During this period, Palestinian factional leaders met in City of El Alamein in Egypt in the presence of President Abbas but failed to agree on a joint statement. During this period, settler terrorist acts in Palestinian areas of the West Bank increased, as did armed attacks by Palestinians against settlers and Israelis. Finally, there have been press reports that there are US-Saudi negotiations to reach an agreement to normalize SaudiIsraeli relations and that Palestinian-Saudi and Palestinian-American meetings have been held to set Palestinian conditions for this normalization agreement. This report is the second in a series of reports that cover the findings of the current wave of AB. It addresses one important issues covered by AB8: Palestinian perception of various international and regional actors and other international relations issues. While the focus is placed on the findings of AB8 regarding these topics, the report sets to compare these findings with those obtained by PSR in AB7, conducted two years earlier, and one poll conducted after AB8.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Normalization, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Qatar
881. Tunisia: Public Opinion Report 2023
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Over the past dozen years, Tunisia has experienced dramatic political change. In 2011, the Jasmine Revolution led to the fall of its long-standing leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, ushering in a period of political instability. Following the rewriting of the constitution, free and fair elections were held but yielded only weak and largely ineffective governments. Although Tunisians enjoyed far greater political rights, economically the country regressed. A decade after the revolution, GDP per capita had declined significantly. Stories of corruption within government institutions remained common, yielding an increasingly frustrated public. Elections may give voters a say, but the outcomes of the system often appeared no better than in the days of Ben Ali. Citizens demanded radical change and looked for a leader who they believed could deliver actual results. In the 2019 presidential elections, many Tunisians turned to Kaïs Saïed as a solution. Saïed ran a populist campaign as a political outsider, calling for ending corruption and reforms to the electoral system. In the final round of voting, he captured nearly three-quarters of the vote for an overwhelming victory and strong electoral mandate. In July 2021, Saïed dismissed the prime minister and suspended parliament. Ruling by decree, many members of the judiciary were dismissed and many opposition politicians were arrested. Despite international criticism of these actions, results from the 2021 Arab Barometer demonstrated that most Tunisians were in favor of his actions.1 Just three months after the events of July 25, 2021, most Tunisians had confidence in the president, a majority were optimistic about their economic future for the first time in years, and most believed the government was finally tackling the problem of corruption. In short, many Tunisians had hope for their country’s future. In late 2023, Tunisians remained more optimistic than they had been before the election of Saïed, but Arab Barometer’s survey suggests that some are starting to lose hope. Promises of economic improvements have not been realized—just one-in-ten rate the economy as good, which is largely unchanged since 2013. Economic optimism has also fallen, dropping by 14 points since 2021. During this period, hunger has also increased dramatically, with twothirds of Tunisians saying they have gone without food at least once in the previous month. Moreover, the most common perception is that government mismanagement is the source of food insecurity. Views of most political institutions are relatively weak. Just over a third have confidence in the government while less than a quarter trust parliament. However, trust in President Saïed remains strong, with about three-quarters expressing confidence in their leader. Still, this level is a six point decrease from 2021.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, Freedom, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
882. Mauritania: Public Opinion Report 2024
- Author:
- Sahel Foundation
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Mauritania has begun a new phase of peaceful rotation of power, being an embodiment of democracy. This democratic transition has been seen through the country’s last government. Therefore, we observe the rising trend of citizens’ trust in the current government. Nine percent of Mauritanians say they trust the government to a great extent, and more than a quarter (27 percent) say they trust it. In contrast, 38 percent say they have little trust in the government, while nearly one-fifth (22 percent) have no trust in their government at all. In order to increase citizens’ trust in the government, it may be worthwhile to enhance communication between the government and citizens and transparently explain decisions and plans. Moreover, it could be important to that end to improve the quality of public services such as health, education, and infrastructure; strengthen the role of citizens in decision-making and participation in the political process; and take effective measures to combat corruption and promote good governance.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mauritania
883. Morocco: Public Opinion Report 2024
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Morocco has endured multiple crises in recent years including the Coronavirus pandemic and the earthquake that hit the country on September 9, 2023. The aftermath of these crises produces what could be described as two Moroccos: one for the wealthier and better educated, another for the poorer and less educated. Moroccans are clearly divided in their views of almost all issues based on their socioeconomic status (SES). Economic pressure persists, with only a third of Moroccans rating their economy positively. While optimism about the future of the economy has increased, it is largely driven by those with a higher socioeconomic status. Their less-fortunate compatriots are far less optimistic and more concerned about increasing inequality and food insecurity. Trust in the Moroccan government remains relatively low, but trust in parliament, regional government, judiciary, and civil society organizations has increased. Still, those struggling financially tend to be less trusting of all these bodies. Similarly, satisfaction with government performance on economic issues is low, especially among the poor. Moroccans are more satisfied with the provision of certain services, including security and infrastructure. On the other hand, education in particular is among the public services in which Moroccans exhibit the lowest levels of satisfaction. Corruption remains a major concern, with the government seen as not doing enough to combat it. This view is especially true among people with lower socioeconomic status. Wealthier and more educated Moroccans are more positive in their rating of the government’s work on combating corruption. However, many Moroccans are resorting to bribery or connection to navigate the bureaucracy. Economic conditions and corruption are causing Moroccans to consider emigrating. Youth and those facing financial pressure are far more likely to have a desire to leave their country, mainly in pursuit of better economic opportunities. Western countries remain the preferred destination for most of the potential migrants in Morocco, many of whom are willing to leave even if they did not have the required documents to do so. While support for democracy has fluctuated over the past few years, recent trends suggest an increase in support for democratic governance. Moroccans acknowledge that democratic systems have their shortcomings, yet they maintain a belief that democracy is preferable to other forms of governance and particularly support a multi-party parliamentary system.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Morocco
884. Why Trump's tariff proposals would harm working Americans
- Author:
- Kimberly Clausing and Mary Lovely
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- At the beginning of its history, the United States relied on tariffs—taxes on imported goods—as its major source of government revenue. That changed starting in the early 20th century, with the enactment of the federal income tax and the advent of a new consensus recognizing tariffs as regressive, burdening the working class while leaving untaxed much of the income accruing to the wealthy. At present, less than 2 percent of government revenue in high-income countries comes from import taxes. Today, however, the United States may be on the cusp of reverting to an antiquated approach to funding its government. Presidential candidate Donald Trump is proposing to reduce US reliance on income taxes while increasing our reliance on import tariffs. He proposes extending expiring tax cuts from 2017 and has also suggested possible new rounds of tax cuts. At the same time, he has proposed a ten percent "across-the-board" tariff and a 60 percent or more tariff on imports from China. Together, these policy steps would amount to regressive tax cuts, only partially paid for by regressive tax increases. The tariffs would reduce after-tax incomes by 3.5 percent for those in the bottom half of the income distribution and cost a typical household in the middle of the income distribution about $1,700 in increased taxes each year. If executed, these steps would increase the distortions and burdens created by the rounds of tariffs levied during the first Trump administration (and sustained during the Biden administration), while inflicting massive collateral damage on the US economy. This Policy Brief leverages recent research to provide approximate calculations for the cost of the higher proposed tariffs to US consumers, considering the distribution of these costs across US households and the consequences for US federal revenues. In sum, Trump's tax proposals entail sharply regressive tax policy changes, shifting tax burdens away from the well-off and toward lower-income members of society while harming US workers and industries, inviting retaliation from trading partners, and worsening international relations.
- Topic:
- Elections, Tax Systems, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
885. The inflation surge in Europe
- Author:
- Patrick Honohan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- For most of the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, undershooting rather than overshooting had been the main inflation problem of the European Central Bank (ECB). During 2020, consumer prices in the euro area were falling; by the end of that year, average inflation since the introduction of the euro two decades earlier stood at only 1.6 percent per year. Things began to snowball in 2021. The 12-month inflation rate steadily accelerated. It reached double digits in the final quarter of 2022—more than twice the level it had ever reached since the euro’s introduction in 1999. Four striking features emerge from a review of the unexpected surge in European inflation since 2021: (1) The ECB’s monetary policy response lagged behind that of the US Federal Reserve, reflecting the more gradual evolution of inflation in the euro area and its distinct pattern of causes; (2) the range of inflation rates across different euro area countries has been unprecedented. This largely reflects the differential impact of war-related energy shocks (especially for natural gas piped from Russia) as well as the differential fiscal response by national governments partially insulating consumers from these shocks; (3) not all households were net losers from the inflation, with some benefiting from the fact that inflation reduced the real value of their indebtedness; and (4) the speed with which inflation was returning toward target during 2023 prompted concerns that the ECB’s monetary tightening might have been pushed too far, prolonging the output slowdown.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, European Union, Inflation, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
886. The influence of gasoline and food prices on consumer expectations and attitudes in the COVID era
- Author:
- Joanne Hsu
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Food and gasoline prices are extremely salient to consumers, who regularly purchase these goods, and these prices are highly visible. The shared experience of purchasing food and gasoline makes it no surprise that those prices have been blamed for the relatively dismal consumer views of the economy in 2023 amid strong economic indicators, including slowing inflation, low unemployment, and robust growth. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations have eased during this past year. This Policy Brief investigates the role food and gasoline prices play in influencing consumer inflation expectations and economic sentiment, as measured on the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, and focuses on the COVID inflationary episode. The author finds that, although consumer sentiment now appears to be more sensitive to inflation than prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations do not. Even though inflation has waned, consumers still spontaneously comment on the negative impact of high prices on their lives. That said, these persistently negative perceptions about inflation have not translated into persistently high inflation expectations.
- Topic:
- Inflation, COVID-19, Consumer Behavior, and Cost of Living
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
887. Restructuring sovereign debt: The need for a coordinated framework
- Author:
- Sean Hagan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- When a sovereign's debt is unsustainable, all stakeholders—the sovereign, its official creditors, and most private creditors—share an interest in a restructuring that quickly restores sustainability. Notwithstanding this general alignment of interests, the current restructuring process is subject to delay and unpredictability. Concerns regarding intercreditor equity have been exacerbated by the "sequential" nature of the restructuring process, where official creditors are generally expected to commit to debt relief terms before private creditors. To speed up the restructuring process, this Policy Brief proposes that the restructuring of official claims and private claims proceed in a parallel yet coordinated manner. To address intercreditor equity concerns, a new contingency mechanism would be available to allow simultaneous decision making: Before one creditor group decides to accept an offer, these creditors would know what everyone else is being offered. Such a mechanism would not be mandatory—there may be circumstances where one group is prepared to move before the others. Such a "Coordinated Framework" will require greater information sharing, consistent with the types of transparency reforms that have been advanced by the International Monetary Fund.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, IMF, and Sovereign Debt
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
888. Climate action: Implications for factor market reallocation
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This paper considers climate policies, not from the perspective of their environmental impacts, but rather their likely effects on labor and investments. While the aggregate impact of the green transition on jobs and investment may be modest, it will require significant reallocation of labor and capital within and across industries. Although the green transition brings new opportunities for employment and investment in renewable technologies, many workers and communities tied to the fossil fuel industry may not benefit from these advances due to skills mismatch and geographic constraints. Both the United States and the European Union acknowledge the importance of achieving “climate justice” and “leaving no one behind” in their decarbonization efforts. However, current policies and resources in the United States may fall short, with inadequate assistance reaching too many communities and a narrow focus on green jobs. In Europe, while the Just Transition Fund complements existing programs, effective implementation of place-based policies remains challenging due to the need for specific, localized responses.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Labor Issues, European Union, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
889. Trade policy, industrial policy, and the economic security of the European Union
- Author:
- Chad P. Bown
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Out of fear about its economic security, the European Union is transitioning to a new form of international economic and policy engagement. This paper explores some of the major trade issues surrounding the bloc’s economic security, the role of trade and industrial policies in achieving its objectives, and some of the economic costs of doing so. It begins by explaining why economic security is suddenly playing such a prominent role and providing early evidence to motivate these government interventions. It then turns to a case study—new policies associated with China’s exports of electric vehicles and graphite—that highlights the difficult choices and practical challenges the European Union faces in tailoring policy to address concerns over economic security. The paper then introduces the domestic policy instruments that the European Union, its member states, and other governments are pursuing to address economic security, including stockpiling and inventory management, investment or production subsidies, tariffs, export controls, and regulations on foreign investment, as well as the scope for selective international cooperation over such policy instruments. The paper concludes with some caveats about abandoning interdependence and lessons from history.
- Topic:
- Security, Industrial Policy, European Union, Trade Policy, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe
890. Lessons from China's fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Author:
- Tianlei Huang
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Expansionary fiscal policy helped China's economy grow in 2020, a year in which most economies contracted because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid a broader pivot to policy and regulatory tightening, fiscal support was withdrawn in 2021. In 2022, government budget turned expansionary to ensure economic stability ahead of the Communist Party Congress, but the execution fell short and fiscal policy ended up being weaker than planned. A recurrent problem during the pandemic, however, was that local governments did not fully spend their budgets. Aside from the sharp drop in local governments' land sale revenue in 2022, which dragged down their spending, it was also caused by local governments' failure to fully utilize their special bond quotas approved by the central government for capital investment. China's fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights four issues with implications for fiscal policy making. First, the government needs to avoid projecting unrealistically high land sale revenue in its budgets. Second, it needs to reconsider its problematic use of local-government special bond as a major fiscal stimulus instrument. Third, it needs to make sure its deficit, growth, and inflation targets are consistent. Last, Beijing needs to be more tolerant of higher fiscal deficits, at a minimum ensuring that overall fiscal spending grows at least as rapidly as nominal output.
- Topic:
- Budget, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Fiscal Deficit
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
891. The effect of lawful crossing on unlawful crossing at the US southwest border
- Author:
- Michael A. Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- An increasing number of migrants attempt to cross the US Southwest border without obtaining a visa or any other prior authorization. 2.5 million migrants did so in 2023. In recent years, responding to this influx, US officials have expanded lawful channels for a limited number of these migrants to cross the border, but only at official ports of entry. These expanded lawful channels were intended to divert migrants away from crossing between ports of entry, by foot or across rivers, thereby reducing unlawful crossings. On the other hand, some have argued that expanding lawful entry would encourage more migrants to cross unlawfully. This study seeks to shed light on that debate by assessing the net effect of lawful channels on unlawful crossings. It considers almost 11 million migrants (men, women, and children) encountered at the border crossing the border without prior permission or authorization. Using statistical methods designed to distinguish causation from simple correlation, it finds that a policy of expanding lawful channels to cross the border by 10 percent in a given month causes a net reduction of about 3 percent in unlawful crossings several months later. Fluctuations in the constraints on lawful crossings can explain roughly 9 percent of the month-to-month variation in unlawful crossings. The data thus suggest that policies expanding access to lawful crossing can serve as a partial but substantial deterrent to unlawful crossing and that expanding access can serve as an important tool for more secure and regulated borders.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- North America, Mexico, and United States of America
892. Tackling the UK's regional economic inequality: Binding constraints and avenues for policy intervention
- Author:
- Anna Stansbury, Dan Turner, and Ed Balls
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes binding constraints to productivity growth in the United Kingdom’s regions outside London and the greater South East. These analyses challenge a number of common arguments about the UK’s regional economic inequality problem. The authors find little evidence consistent with the hypotheses (i) that low shares of university graduates remain the primary constraint on growth for the UK’s regions; (ii) that there is a generalized issue with access to finance for firms outside the South East; or (iii) that low or falling regional migration rates are to blame for the persistence of the UK’s regional economic inequalities. Instead, they find evidence consistent with (i) a specific relative shortage of STEM degrees; (ii) binding transport infrastructure constraints within major non-London conurbations; (iii) a failure of public innovation policy to support clusters beyond the South East, in particular through the regional distribution of public support for research and development (R&D); and (iv) missed opportunities for higher internal mobility due to London’s overheating housing market. The authors also find some suggestive evidence consistent with constraints on access to early-stage equity financing for high growth-potential small and medium-sized enterprises in certain regions.
- Topic:
- Finance, Economic Growth, Economic Inequality, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
893. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Geopolitical Risk
- Author:
- Cullen Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates whether the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the warming and cooling cycle in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that affects both global atmospheric and ocean conditions—is a driver of geopolitical risk at the global scale. Using nonlinear cross-convergent mapping, a technique for characterizing causal relationships in dynamic systems, it finds ENSO is causally related to geopolitical risk at the global level, but that finding is not replicated at the country level for countries whose economies are most strongly influenced by ENSO cycles. Put differently, ENSO-related geopolitical risk is an emergent phenomenon evident only at the Earth system level. Then, using monthly observations of ENSO and geopolitical risk, the paper reports a curvilinear, contemporaneous relationship between ENSO and risk, with La Niña conditions associated with lessened geopolitical risk relative to El Niño and neutral climate conditions. The effects are statistically and substantively significant, and the relationship is demonstrated to be stronger in more recent decades (post-1990). The effect for geopolitical risk of transitioning from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions is of similar magnitude to that of the outbreak of a major interstate war.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Politics, Geopolitics, Risk, Weather, and El Niño
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
894. The Evolving Landscape of U.S. Economic Security: The Confluence of Trade, Technology, and National Security
- Author:
- Andrea Viski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the current evolution of U.S. economic security discourse to demonstrate the implications, challenges, and shortcomings of U.S. economic security tools and the catalyzing impact of technology. While component economic security considerations are broad and encompass issues from natural disaster planning to cybersecurity, this paper focuses specifically on the impact of trade and technology in the economic security context. It discusses the main influences and features of U.S. economic security policy as it relates to trade, technology, and the security of the supply chain. The paper includes sections on evolving notions of the dual-use concept; the need to manage and respond to technology flows with more effective strategies, and new foreign policy efforts and tools to strengthen economic security. The paper focuses on the trends forging the path for the United States to define economic security so closely with national security, and in exploring these trends, it delineates how the United States has implemented policies and adopted, reoriented, or created new policy tools designed to strengthen economic security. The paper also explores why the rapid evolution of emerging technologies has played such a defining role. Finally, the paper examines the effectiveness of the U.S. approach to economic security and its challenges and offers insights into how it can be strengthened in the future
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Trade, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
895. Japanese Economic Security as “Derisking”
- Author:
- Kazuto Suzuki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the concept of “derisking” and how the Japanese Economic Security Promotion Act (ESPA) has responded to it within the framework of deterrence theory. It explores how ESPA allows deterrence by denial against economic coercion by other states and is itself a derisking measure. It contends that deterrence by denial, which means reducing dependency and improving resilience, could include stockpiling strategic materials, diversifying sources of supply, developing alternative materials, and developing alternative products. However, this paper argues that there is a need to strengthen the mechanism for collaborative deterrence by denial, such as the “Coordination Platform” presented at the G7 Hiroshima Summit. As for other forms of deterrence, such as institutional deterrence and deterrence by punishment, their effectiveness is insufficient, and they face many implementation problems. Therefore, this paper argues that the most optimal derisking strategy at this point is the combination of ESPA and the “Coordination Platform” to strengthen the capabilities of deterrence by denial.
- Topic:
- Risk, Deterrence, Economic Security, and Coercion
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
896. Is Economic Security National Security? Defining South Korea’s Economic Security for Future Industries
- Author:
- June Park
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores how South Korea defines “economic security.” Amidst geopolitical turbulence, the framing of this concept by governments and policy circles around the globe is reflective of the changes in the global economy post-pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, two critical junctures that have revealed the geo-economic impact of weaponized interdependence. While the Biden administration has laid out U.S. policy intent to combine national security with economic security, specifically on future industries of dual-use nature ranging from chips to EVs, batteries, and generative AI, countries that are on the receiving end of policy implementation are formulating their response to the shifting geoeconomics. This paper unravels South Korea’s framing of economic security and policy response by analyzing legislation on future industries that is critical to the country’s economic growth and standing and the concerted efforts by the state bureaucracy and industry in shaping the concept. The paper draws specifically upon semiconductors in addition to other future industries that are central to the South Korean economy and related legislation in the South Korean National Assembly. It argues that South Korea’s policy response and framing of its economic security has more to do with the protection of industries for the future amid geopolitical turbulence and the reshuffling of global supply chains than traditional security issues related to the U.S.-ROK alliance. Moreover, public anxiety on the pressures toward U.S.-driven trilateral cooperation reveals concerns on a possible backlash from China and the lagging potential of Japan in future industries.
- Topic:
- National Security, Geopolitics, Industry, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
897. China’s Perspective on Economic Security
- Author:
- Audrye Wong
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how Beijing views economic security as well as other countries’ actions in this realm. Economic security is not a new or foreign concept to Chinese thinkers and policymakers, but the emphases, concerns, and priorities have evolved, due in part to changes in the international environment as well as in China’s own economic and geopolitical situation. This paper examines how Chinese leaders and scholars have approached the definition and scope of economic security, as well as recent and proposed policy responses. It draws on a range of Chinese-language official documents and scholarly writings, as well as broader secondary source analyses. The paper explores that while Chinese discussions of economic security tend to be framed as ensuring economic development and stability, development is implicitly and explicitly linked to national security. Many writings emphasize that economics is the foundation for national strength (including military capabilities). As such, it is more than just economic survival and growth for the economy’s sake; it also has implications for China’s geopolitical position in the international order. In that respect, economic stability and national security may be hard to separate. Indeed, we see a resurgence in today’s rhetoric about the notions of development and security as inextricably linked, along with the need to coordinate the two—and in service of maintaining CCP rule and regime stability. Finally, the paper shows Beijing is taking concrete steps toward increased legalization and institutionalization of economic security measures. This represents a shift, at least in the domain of retaliatory countermeasures, from its usually more “informal” approach to economic coercion, which has afforded more flexibility and minimized political costs for the regime. At the same time, actual implementation has been relatively limited thus far.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, National Security, Trade Wars, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
898. South Korea: Caught in the Crosshairs of U.S.−China Competition Over Semiconductors
- Author:
- Paul Triolo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores how countries with advanced semiconductor industries are caught in the middle of the growing U.S.-China competition in technology that is focused on advanced computing. Among them, South Korea and its national champions, Samsung and SK Hynix, have arguably incurred some of the most significant pressure. This paper explores how those firms have billions of dollars of sunk investment in China-based facilities producing cutting-edge memory, and the future of these facilities remains in doubt after a series of U.S. export control measures unleashed by the U.S. Commerce Department starting in October 2022. South Korean companies are also players in other parts of the global semiconductor supply chain, including semiconductor manufacturing tools, and China remains an important market for both components and electronic devices. This paper argues that each country caught between the United States and China in technology competition faces difficult trade-offs in determining how best to support its leading companies while navigating changing and often what is viewed as arbitrary decisions coming from Washington that have already significantly disrupted global supply chains. Finally, at the same time as U.S. export controls are having a major impact on the ability of South Korean companies to retain business operations and market access in China, major front-end manufacturers, particularly Samsung, are also looking to expand their operations in the United States and benefit from U.S. CHIPS Act funding. This paper argues that all of the above dynamics put South Korea in one of the more complex positions as the industry faces continued restructuring, buffeted by both export controls and industrial policies.
- Topic:
- Supply Chains, Economic Security, Semiconductors, and Economic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
899. The Raw Materials of Economic Security: South Korea’s Evolving Energy and Critical Minerals Policies in an Era of Disruption
- Author:
- James Bowen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that resource security is central to South Korea’s broader economic security and President Yoon Suk-yeol’s Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region. The paper contends that postwar Korea has maintained an energy and minerals-intensive economy despite domestic resource scarcity and import dependence. Recent disruptions have, however, threatened the resilience of this relationship. These disruptions include COVID-19, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the escalating climate change crisis and energy transition, and the geoeconomic and geopolitical erosion of the liberal order. Korea’s most important energy security priority is diversifying its energy mix towards cleaner energy—what this paper calls “green security.” This will be a difficult task given the intense national dependence on fossil fuels and policymakers’ desire to avoid disrupting Korea’s manufacturing-heavy, export-focused development model. Korea’s idiosyncratic decarbonization pathway, including a strong presence of hydrogen and, under Yoon, a downgrading of renewables in favor of nuclear, could provide additional challenges. Critical minerals are another rising resource security concern for Seoul. The major priority is to accelerate the development and diversification of international supply chains, particularly away from China. A major obstacle to progress is intense competition across the value chain, influenced by disparate economic and strategic priorities. The paper argues that Seoul must find ways to manage its energy and critical minerals security challenges in a way that is consistent with its preferred development model. The alternative is to accept a new equilibrium in which it has less domestic dependence on foreign resources and on resources-intensive economic activity in aggregate.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Minerals, Economic Security, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
900. Economic Security and U.S.-China Competition: The View from North Korea
- Author:
- Rachel Minyoung Lee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that while North Korea does not discuss “economic security” in domestic contexts or have an established definition of the term, it thoroughly understands that the economy and national security are inseparable. North Korea is essentially unaffected by the typical economic issues that many major economies are grappling with in relation to economic security, but like other countries, it has closely tracked economic security developments and deepening U.S.-China strategic competition for potential political fallout and what opportunities and challenges that may generate. The paper shows that U.S.-China strategic competition has offered unique opportunities to North Korea, including China’s cover against fresh and existing sanctions against North Korea, and economic assistance. Moreover, deteriorating U.S.-China ties provide Pyongyang extra space to consider and put into motion alternative foreign and economic policy paths, namely, shifting away from its three-decade policy of nonalignment with China and normalization of relations with the United States. Also, China appears to be a factor in North Korea’s shift to a more conservative economic policy. Despite the opportunities presented by the U.S.-China divide, however, North Korea is wary of the risks of dependence on China and has tried to build economic resilience at home, for example by launching a national campaign on domestic production and recycling. North Korea’s somewhat cooler handling of China and its proportionately warm treatment of Russia since the Armistice Day celebrations in July is a clear example of North Korea’s China dilemma. This is where North Korea’s recent strengthening of ties with Russia comes into the picture. The paper contends that it is hard to conclude at this point whether North Korea’s moves are aimed at short-term, tactical gains or are part of a longer-term, strategic calculus, but we can be certain of this: it has just as much to gain or lose as any other country affected by economic security and U.S.-China strategic competition, though not in the same ways as other countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America