Publication Year: within 3 Years - CIAO Search Results

8701. UN Peacekeeping and CPAS: An Experiment in Performance Assessment and Mission Planning

Author:: Daniel Forti
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Since 2018, the UN Department of Peace Operations’ (DPO) Division for Policy, Evaluation and Training (DPET) has been rolling out the Comprehensive Planning and Performance Assessment System (CPAS) across all UN peacekeeping operations. CPAS sets out a framework for mission officials to interrogate how their operations impact stakeholders and processes in the country and whether these impacts are helping missions achieve their mandated priorities. This policy paper examines the rollout and implementation of CPAS to date and reviews CPAS’s impact across three core areas: data collection and analysis, impact assessment, and mission planning. It also examines six factors that affect the implementation and impact of CPAS: (1) mission-wide integration; (2) mission leadership and mission-wide ownership; (3) capacities and skill sets; (4) alignment with other peacekeeping planning tools; (5) thematic priorities; and (6) dynamics between UN headquarters and field missions. The paper concludes with the following recommendations, which are intended to help missions, headquarters, and member states sustain CPAS into the future: Peacekeeping operations should include CPAS-specific information in handover notes; share the topline of CPAS frameworks and impact assessments with UN headquarters; improve the design, tracking, and communication of CPAS recommendations; provide detailed overviews of CPAS impact assessments in the secretary-general’s reports to the Security Council; broaden CPAS participation to the UN country team and other UN entities in the country or region; and incorporate local views of mission performance and impact into CPAS. UN headquarters should publish CPAS fact sheets on mission websites; incorporate CPAS exercises and assessments into senior leadership training exercises; expand training materials on data analysis and visualization; and align CPAS with other UN planning and reporting processes. Member states should provide consistent political support and attention to CPAS; increase funding for civilian planning and data-management posts; and include CPAS in peacekeeping curricula at national peacekeeping and police training centers.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8702. Disinformation against UN Peacekeeping Operations

Author:: Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Over the past few years, a growing barrage of disinformation has targeted UN peacekeeping operations, particularly the missions in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), Mali (MINUSMA), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This includes false allegations that UN peacekeepers are trafficking weapons to armed groups, supporting terrorists, and exploiting natural resources. This disinformation makes it harder for peacekeeping operations to implement their mandates and has put the safety of peacekeepers at risk. This paper provides an overview of the recent rise in disinformation against MINUSCA, MINUSMA, and MONUSCO. It also examines how these three peacekeeping operations have been addressing disinformation and the challenges they have faced. While these initial efforts have tended to focus on strategic communications, disinformation is not only a strategic communications issue; it affects all mission components, and effectively tackling it requires situating it in the broader political context and understanding its drivers. This paper offers the following questions the UN Department of Peace Operations and individual missions could consider as they develop policies, guidelines, structures, and activities to address disinformation: How can missions develop a cross-cutting, strategic approach to disinformation? Disinformation is more than a technical or tactical issue; it is a political and strategic issue that requires the proactive attention of mission leaders. How can missions better monitor and analyze disinformation both online and offline? Monitoring disinformation is critical not only so missions can address it; tracking rumors also has intrinsic value by helping missions better listen to and understand the sentiments of local populations. How can missions respond to disinformation more quickly? For many UN personnel, the slowness of the UN response is one of the biggest challenges inhibiting their efforts to address disinformation. How can missions reshape anti-UN narratives? Anti-UN disinformation is woven into a broader anti-UN (and anticolonial) narrative that is grounded in both great-power politics and legitimate public grievances. In countering individual falsehoods, missions should consider whether and how they could also respond to this broader narrative. How can missions contribute to a healthier information environment? From the perspective of civil society, the most important shift the UN can make would be to focus more on supporting local journalists. Does the scale of the problem call for a more decisive shift in approach? Any shift in approach should be premised on the principle that under no circumstances should missions respond to disinformation with disinformation of their own.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central African Republic

8703. Strengthening Data to Protect Healthcare in Conflict Zones

Author:: Rohini Haar and Susannah Sirkin
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Attacks on healthcare in situations of armed conflict have been reported at alarming levels over the past two decades. In response to this problem, the UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 2286, which urges states to collect data on attacks on medical personnel, transport, and facilities. This data is essential to understand the scale and scope of the problem, protect health services and workers, prioritize resources to those most impacted, prevent future attacks, and hold perpetrators accountable. This paper examines why data on threats to and attacks on healthcare in conflict is important to protection, advocacy, and investigation and how it can be improved and harmonized. It provides an overview of existing data-collection efforts—namely, the Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA) and the database produced by the Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition (SHCC) in partnership with Insecurity Insight—and identifies challenges and gaps at both the policy and technical levels. This paper concludes with the following recommendations for the World Health Organization (WHO), other UN entities, UN member states, and NGOs: The World Health Assembly should adopt a resolution calling on WHO to address the major concerns in the structure and operation of the SSA; WHO should make technical improvements to the quality and presentation of data in the SSA and be open to a range of data-collection methodologies; Other UN agencies, governments, and civil society organizations should take steps to improve the collection and sharing of data on attacks on healthcare to improve protection, prevention, and accountability; and Governments, NGOs, and other actors should increase the funding and capacity of existing data-collection initiatives.
Topic:: Health, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Conflict, UN Security Council, Data, and WHO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8704. Lessons from E10 Engagement on the Security Council

Author:: Arthur Boutellis
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: In recent years, the ten elected members of the Security Council, now commonly referred to as the E10, have come to play a more prominent role. Although there were previous periods when elected members were active and took initiative, the space for such contributions began to shrink in the mid-2000s. The emergence of the E10 as a construct and a more cohesive coalition on the Security Council is thus recent. Despite elected members’ different levels of commitment to collective E10 initiatives, and although the Council’s five permanent members have greater capacity, permanence, and veto power, there is a sense that the E10 have been able to influence the work of the Council, including its working methods, thematic issues, and some country-specific files. This paper presents a broad policy perspective on lessons from both individual elected members and from the E10 as a group. It examines the E10’s recent engagement on the Council and offers lessons for how elected members can most effectively prepare for their term, serve on the Council, and ensure their legacy. The paper concludes with reflections on the future of the E10 in a fragmented Security Council. While the E10 as a group have reached a level of maturity, their ability to coordinate across a diverse group whose effectiveness depends on several internal and external factors may have reached a natural limit. The E10’s composition, individual members’ level of commitment to collective E10 initiatives, and the group’s leadership all impact the E10’s ability to influence the work of the Council. While the E10 have been collectively successful at promoting certain issues and files and at making the Council more transparent, individual members have and will continue to have different views on many issues on the agenda. They will also continue to face structural inequalities when it comes to penholding and chairing subsidiary bodies.
Topic:: Diplomacy, United Nations, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8705. The Primacy of Politics and the Protection of Civilians in UN Peacekeeping

Author:: Jenna Russo and Ralph Mamiya
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Support to political processes and the protection of civilians (POC) are arguably the two most prominent mandated tasks for multidimensional UN peacekeeping operations. Policy guidance and independent reviews have made clear that politics and protection must be linked, yet within missions, POC is often considered in parallel to political work and is not always effectively incorporated into a political vision. The purpose of this report is to examine how UN peacekeeping missions’ POC and political work are understood in relation to one another in terms of planning and operations and to consider opportunities for better integrating them, both formally and informally. The report begins by outlining the concept of political primacy and the elevation of POC within UN peacekeeping. It then provides an overview of entry points for better connecting missions’ political and POC work, including in mapping and analyses, planning and strategies, negotiated agreements, the creation of enabling environments, and local-level processes. The report then discusses various challenges and offers concluding recommendations. The paper concludes with the following recommendations for member states, mission leadership, and other mission personnel to better integrate their POC and political work: Mapping and analysis: Mission leaders should ensure that mapping and analyses are conducted jointly by mission personnel working on POC and politics. Planning and strategies: Special representatives of the secretary-general (SRSGs) and headquarters should take ownership of, and clearly and consistently communicate to mission staff, mission concepts, mission plans, POC strategies, and political strategies. To better translate their strategic vision into actionable plans, mission leaders should also establish joint mission planning cells. Heads of POC and political components (or their equivalents) should anchor their individual strategies in the central mission concept, plan, or strategy to ensure all components are working toward a common goal. Negotiated agreements: During the lead-up to a formal negotiation process, SRSGs should advocate for POC. Mediators should also advocate for specific language on POC within negotiated agreements, including language on the protection of specific groups and protection from sexual and gender-based violence. Creating an enabling environment: Mission personnel in charge of planning and implementing POC should look for entry points to enhance the protection-participation nexus. Local-level processes: Senior mission leaders and member states should broaden their focus on the “political” beyond national-level formal processes to include the local level.
Topic:: Politics, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Civilians, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8706. “Youth Policy Papers” produced by Pal-Think’s Civic Education Corps

Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: As part of its primary role of promoting the values of democracy, justice, human rights, and dialogue among Palestinian youth, Pal-Think for Strategic Studies has conducted the “Civic Education 2” project funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) for the second consecutive year. The project’s goal is to amplify Palestinian young men and women’s skills and background on democracy and human rights issues. This book marks the conclusion of the theoretical and practical training program that empowered 25 youth to conduct awareness-raising meetings and discuss their issues in radio interviews. Afterward, the participants prepared five research papers that addressed various issues from a youth perspective in an analytical way and in line with the IMRaD format. Finally, Pal-Think would like to thank everyone who contributed to producing this youth-centered, informative effort, whether through reading or discussing the papers. Pal-Think affirms its determination to continue its work, plans, and programs that aim at improving youth’s access to policy-making centers and promoting their social role.
Topic:: Human Rights, Youth Culture, Democracy, and Youth
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

8707. Legal Report – A Highlight on Political, Economic, and Social Rights in Palestine

Author:: Palthink
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Within the activities of PalThink Academy for Human Rights and Democracy, PalThink produced a report titled A Highlight on Political, Economic, and Social Rights in Palestine. The report mainly provided a profound analysis of the current public situation in the Palestinian territories from 2019 to 2022. Furthermore, the report was anchored on six indicators including good governance, political participation, public freedom, education, health, and labour. In addition, it gave an in-depth insight into the root causes and consequences of ongoing violations of human rights. To conclude, the report proposed recommendations pertaining to the needed interventions to alleviate the challenges facing human rights in Palestine. This project is supported by the ifa’s zivik Funding Programme and implemented by PalThink for Strategic Studies.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Human Rights, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

8708. Situation Analysis Paper: Hate Speech and its Implications on Civil Peace and Social Harmony

Author:: Yahya Qaoud and Da'd Mahmoud
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The paper presents a set of recommendations to reduce hate-based violence and promote civil peace without prejudice to the freedom of opinion and expression by enacting deterrent laws and procedures at the official and unofficial levels to raise awareness about hate speech and its dangers.
Topic:: Civil Society, Freedom of Expression, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

8709. “Re-imagining the Reality of Entrepreneurship in the Lens of Palestinian Youth”

Author:: Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: As an independent think-tank that works to produce knowledge and spread it in Palestinian society, and in partnership with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, PalThink for Strategic Studies has implemented the “Re-imagining the Reality of Entrepreneurship in the Lens of Palestinian Youth” project, which aimed at promoting entrepreneurship in the Gaza Strip. It is one of PalThink’s core beliefs that entrepreneurship is an effective way to create job opportunities and that promoting it, by refining young people’s skills to design and plan their innovative entrepreneurial ideas, is a valiant attempt to reduce unemployment. The project aimed at enhancing the skills of 20 male and female students and graduates and raising their awareness about entrepreneurial projects, the reality of start-ups, and the economic barriers facing youth in the Gaza Strip. The project also included the production of three research papers discussing the challenges and opportunities of entrepreneurial projects in the Palestinian business environment. This booklet was published after the conclusion of three discussion sessions that presented and discussed the three papers with experts and researchers from Palestinian civil society institutions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Entrepreneurship, and Youth
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

8710. The Future of Xi’s China. Scenarios and Implications for Europe

Author:: Alessia Amighini
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: At the upcoming 20th Party Congress, which opens Sunday in China, Xi Jinping is expected to be confirmed as the country's Secretary General for an unprecedented third term. At a time of international instability caused by the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as rising competition between international superpowers, the Chinese leadership is called to increase the country's international standing, while ensuring economic growth at the domestic level. However, achieving these goals will not be without challenges. This Report analyses China’s hard road to international prestige and development. Which prospects for China's economic growth? Which obstacles to its rise at the global level? To which extent can the Party steer the country’s direction?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economy, Xi Jinping, and Instability
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

8711. Digitalisation for Sustainable Infrastructure: The Road Ahead

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In today’s tumultuous and fast-changing times, digitalisation and technology are game changers in a wide range of sectors and have a tremendous impact on infrastructure. Roads, railways, electricity grids, aviation, and maritime transport are deeply affected by the digital and technological transition, with gains in terms of competitiveness, cost-reduction, and safety. Digitalisation is also a key tool for fostering global commitment towards sustainability, but the race for digital infrastructure is also a geopolitical one. As the world’s largest economies are starting to adopt competitive strategies, a level playing field appears far from being agreed upon. Why are digitalisation and technology the core domains of global geopolitical competition? How are they changing the way infrastructure is built, operated, and maintained? To what extent will road, rail, air, and maritime transport change by virtue of digitalisation, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things? How to enhance cyber protection for critical infrastructure? What are the EU’s, US’ and China's digital strategies?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, Sustainability, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8712. Sahel: 10 Years of Instability. Local, Regional and International Dynamics

Author:: Giovanni Carbone and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Ten years after the start of the Malian crisis, political and security instability in the Sahel have changed in scale and nature, and spilled over across national frontiers. The border region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has become the new epicentre of insecurity. The comeback of military actors on the political scene, and the support provided by large parts of the population to post-coup military juntas is evidence of poor governance and a severe deterioration in the legitimacy of elected authorities. In this complex scenario, the initiatives of external partners affect regional balances, making the Sahel a major theatre for power competition. How did the crisis evolve over the past decade? What are the main drivers behind local, regional and international dynamics? What prospects for regional stability?
Topic:: Security, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Borders, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

8713. Facing War: Rethinking Europe’s Security and Defence

Author:: Serena Giusti and Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Russia’s attack on Ukraine has sent shockwaves across Europe and the world. While the current war is a geopolitical turning point, it remains unclear whether it will trigger a quantum leap forward for European defence policies and for the role of the European Union as a security provider. This Report investigates whether we can expect a further convergence of European strategic cultures, and on collaboration among Europeans to generate the required military capabilities and integrate their forces. Most importantly, it finds that the timely implementation of the EU’s Strategic Compass will be a decisive test to establish whether Europeans are rising to the challenge of taking more responsibility for their security and defence.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8714. From Warlords to Statelords: Armed Groups and Power Trajectories in Libya and Yemen

Author:: Eleanore Ardemagni and Federica Saini Fasanotti
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Armed groups play a central role in Libya and Yemen. Pervading weak and contested institutions, they have gradually brought their survival, profit and governance strategies under the state umbrella: warlords have become the new lords of the state. Armed groups control most of the energy revenues, critical infrastructure, smuggling and illicit trafficking. Their leaders are multifaceted: they are simultaneously military commanders, tribal chiefs, politicians and businessmen. Combining comparative analysis and case studies, this Report sheds light on the “economic face” of the armed groups and their power trajectories. How do armed groups build networks of profit and loyalty in the territories they hold? How does clientelism mark a continuity trend with former authoritarian regimes?
Topic:: Non State Actors, Governance, Armed Forces, and Economy
Political Geography:: Libya, Yemen, and North Africa

8715. Energy Politics in the MENA Region: From Hydrocarbons to Renewables?

Author:: Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: After Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its weaponisation of natural gas supplies, energy security has become a top political priority for Europe. Given the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region's abundant oil and gas resources, the European countries inevitably turned to the region to make up for the shortfall. This Report analyses the impact of Europe's "scramble for alternatives" on key MENA exporters of fossil fuels. Specific attention is attached to their prospects as short-term suppliers of fossil fuels while they set the stage for their green transition. How is the current energy crisis affecting the role of MENA hydrocarbons producers as Europe's energy suppliers? Which impact on energy relations among MENA countries? Which new prospects for their green transition?
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, Hydrocarbons, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

8716. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade

Author:: Zsolt Darvas and Catarina Martins
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We study the economic implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. We find that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and the sanctions were not the most important drivers. Nevertheless, International Monetary Fund forecast revisions from October 2021 to October 2022 suggest that the volume of global trade in goods and services declined by 3.4 percent, energy prices increased by about 100 percent, and the prices of non-energy commodities by 8 percent. The war could be an important driver of these forecast revisions, though other factors were also at play. While forecasts for important industrial production input costs were not revised, soaring energy prices deteriorated the trade balance of countries importing energy. Only half of the increase in Russia’s trade surplus was related to soaring energy prices. The other half resulted from the collapse of Russian imports, which will likely undermine the Russian economy’s productive capacity over time. Falling Russian exports of goods other than mineral fuels suggest Russia’s productive capacity has already weakened. Russia’s trade has been reoriented from advanced economies to China, India and Turkey, but this has only partially compensated for the decline in trade with advanced countries. We find that sanctions had an impact on trade. There is no evidence of European and US companies circumventing sanctions by re-routing sanctioned goods to Russia via China and Turkey. The UK and the US have already stopped importing fossil fuels from Russia, and such imports by the EU have declined. With the EU’s Russian seaborne crude petroleum import ban taking effect in December 2022 and the refined petroleum ban coming to effect in February 2023, Russia’s revenues from fossil fuel exports to the EU are set to shrink significantly, with limited options for redirecting exports to other countries. The three main policy-relevant implications from our research are: The war and the sanctions are not the most important drivers of energy price; The direct aim of sanctions seems to have been achieved; The capacity of the Russian state to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink. The dataset used for most charts of this working paper is regularly updated and is available in the Russian foreign trade tracker
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Fossil Fuels, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8717. You’ll never talk alone: what media narratives on European reforms reveal about a polity in the making

Author:: Emmanuel Mourion-Druol, Henrik Müller, Giuseppe Porcaro, and Tobias Schmidt
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper analyses the discourse since 2001 in three leading national business newspapers about reforms in the European Union: Handelsblatt (Germany), Il Sole (Italy) and Les Echos (France). We collected and organised a large dataset of articles published in these three newspapers. We used topic modelling to identify latent topics across articles. Based on this database, we then addressed four research questions and found: a relative degree of synchronisation of reform debates across the three countries; comparable reporting patterns, especially around the main crises; a greater degree of direction of the debate towards European issues over national issues in Germany than in France and Italy; and the tentative emergence of a shared narrative about crises. Finally, we highlight that bringing conflict and contestation back into European discussions may help stimulate wider interest in European matters.
Topic:: Reform, European Union, Media, and News Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe

8718. Deglobalisation and Protectionism

Author:: Uri Dadush
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Trade in goods has slowed markedly since the global financial crisis (GFC), but there is no deglobalisation: most countries have seen increased international integration across nearly all goods, services and factor markets. China has become more self-reliant and is a notable exception in goods trade. Despite some dramatic instances, protectionism has largely been kept at bay and trade in goods remains quite free, perhaps freer than it was before the GFC. The proliferation and deepening of free trade agreements have contributed to this outcome. There has been deglobalisation of capital markets, but not because of protectionism. Despite efforts to erect barriers in some sensitive sectors, technology flows quite freely across borders because of the internet. However, trade policy uncertainty increased after the election of President Trump, a trend that persists under President Biden, and the biggest challenge is to avoid backsliding. There are many missed opportunities in the globalisation of services and of capital flows – especially those to developing countries. Increased migration remains potentially the largest source of gain from globalisation, but it is also the most fraught politically.
Topic:: Economy, Trade, Trade Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8719. Greeniums in sovereign bond markets

Author:: Monika Grzegorczyk
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The total market value of green bonds exceeded half a trillion dollars in 2021 and will increase to $1 trillion by the end of 2022. The growing European green sovereign bond market has a value of close to €147 billion at issuance. We study whether investors price green sovereign bonds differently to normal sovereign bonds. We do not expect to find a so-called ‘greenium’: the promise attached to green sovereign bonds is rather loosely defined and green and normal sovereign bonds are both backed by the full faith and credit of their respective governments. However, when systematically matching green and normal sovereign bonds using a number of criteria, including date of issuance and maturity, a small greenium can be measured. More research is needed to understand why rational investors do not arbitrage away this greenium.
Topic:: Finance, Economy, Public Debt, Bonds, Green Economy, and Sovereign Bonds
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8720. Risks to job quality from digital technologies: are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge?

Author:: Janine Berg, Francis Green, Laura Nurski, and David Spencer
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We examine the job quality effects of new digital technologies in Europe, using the framework of seven job quality ‘domains’: pay, working time quality, prospects, skills and discretion, work intensity, social environment and physical environment. The theoretical effects from new technology are ambivalent for all domains. Data on robot shocks matched to the European Working Conditions Surveys for 2010 and 2015 is used to generate empirical estimates, which show significant aggregate negative effects in three domains, and a positive effect in one. Some negative effects are enhanced where there is below-median collective bargaining. In light of these analyses, and in order to think through the challenge of regulating the development and implementation of all forms of digital technologies, we review regulations in several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we advance the general hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application to the regulation of job quality of national and supra-national data protection legislation. In these ways, the paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, to a consideration of job quality more broadly.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Employment, and Work
Political Geography:: Europe

8721. A gender perspective on artificial intelligence and jobs: The vicious cycle of digital inequality

Author:: Estrella Gomez-Herrera and Sabine Köszegi
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The worldwide artificial intelligence market is expected to increase enormously in the next few years. Because of AI’s immense potential, virtually all industries will be affected by the implementation of AI systems, resulting in the digitalisation and automation of work processes. This will cause disruptive shifts in labour markets, in terms of the number and profiles of jobs in industries as well as worker skill requirements. We take a gender perspective and analyse how gender stereotypes and gendered work segregation on the one hand, and digitalisation and automation (as a consequence of AI implementation) on the other hand, are entangled and result in a vicious cycle of digital gender inequality. We provide insights into the gender-specific impact of AI technologies, which is relevant for the mitigation of the potential risk of the creation of social inequality and exclusion. We show that existing empirical evidence already indicates that AI will not increase gender equality but will somewhat further exacerbate the gender inequality in labour markets, ranging from further horizontal and vertical occupational gender segregation to an increase in the gender pay gap. We summarise policy guidance and measures to decrease gender inequality in the future.
Topic:: Inequality, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Gender, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8722. The impact of artificial intelligence on the nature and quality of jobs

Author:: Laura Nurski and Mia Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence (AI), like any workplace technology, changes the division of labour in an organisation and the resulting design of jobs. When used as an automation technology, AI changes the bundle of tasks that make up an occupation. In this case, implications for job quality depend on the (re)composition of those tasks. When AI automates management tasks, known as algorithmic management, the consequences extend into workers’ control over their work, with impacts on their autonomy, skill use and workload. We identify four use cases of algorithmic management that impact the design and quality of jobs: algorithmic work-method instructions; algorithmic scheduling of shifts and tasks; algorithmic surveillance, evaluation and discipline; and algorithmic coordination across tasks. Reviewing the existing empirical evidence on automation and algorithmic management shows significant impact on job quality across a wide range of jobs and employment settings. While each AI use case has its own particular effects on job demands and resources, the effects tend to be more negative for the more prescriptive (as opposed to supportive) use cases. These changes in job design demonstrably affect the social and physical environment of work and put pressure on contractual employment conditions as well. As technology development is a product of power in organisations, it replicates existing power dynamics in society. Consequently, disadvantaged groups suffer more of the negative consequences of AI, risking further job-quality polarisation across socioeconomic groups. Meaningful worker participation in the adoption of workplace AI is critical to mitigate the potentially negative effects of AI adoption on workers, and can help achieve fair and transparent AI systems with human oversight. Policymakers should strengthen the role of social partners in the adoption of AI technology to protect workers’ bargaining power.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Inclusion, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8723. Don’t look only to Brussels to increase the supply of safe assets in the European Union

Author:: Francesco Papadia and Heliodoro Temprano Arroyo
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A sufficient supply of safe assets denominated in euros is critical if the European Union is to achieve full banking and capital markets union while fostering the euro’s international role. The European debate on developing the supply of safe assets has so far focused on the possible creation of a common safe asset. This has tended to underplay the potential contribution of sovereign assets. Expanding the supply of national safe assets, notably through the gradual implementation of fiscal and growth-oriented structural policies in euro-area countries, leading to upgrading of their sovereign ratings, provides a promising, and perhaps more feasible, option. An upgrade to triple A of those euro-area countries that are currently rated double A could produce substantially more safe assets than most common safe asset proposals, including those based on the development of ‘synthetic’ safe assets. There has been a remarkable increase in the share of supranational assets in the stock of euro-based safe assets since 2008, reflecting downgrades in sovereign ratings and the EU’s financial responses to the euro-area crisis and the pandemic. However, safe assets in euro remain dominated by those issued by euro-area governments. Although common safe assets have certain advantages over national safe assets, reflecting their built-in risk diversification properties, there is currently not much political appetite for such proposals. Meanwhile, sovereign safe assets already offer many of the advantages of common safe assets. Sound fiscal policies and growth-stimulating reforms, which are in any case desirable, should be implemented to improve the credit ratings of euro-area sovereigns. This might not be politically feasible in the short-term, given the difficult economic environment currently faced by the EU, but it should be a key component of the EU’s medium-term safe asset strategy. Should the political consensus be found to create a common safe asset, such an asset could be incorporated into the euro area’s existing safe asset system, reinforcing its positive effects.
Topic:: Debt, Markets, Monetary Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, European Monetary Union, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe

8724. Which mergers should the European Commission review under the Digital Markets Act?

Author:: Christophe Carugati
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Large digital platforms acquired 1149 firms in various economic sectors between 1987 and July 2022. The European Commission reviewed only 21 of these mergers as most did not meet the European Union merger control turnover threshold. This suggests under-enforcement, with some problematic mergers escaping merger review and thus posing competition risks. The EU Digital Markets Act, which entered into force in November 2022, imposes obligations on firms that are considered ‘gatekeepers’ in relation to some core platform services, such as online search engines. In particular, these firms must now inform the Commission of all their intended acquisitions. This, in combination with Commission guidance on referrals by EU national competition authorities of mergers for review, should ensure more merger reviews in the digital sector. Current European Commission guidance on referring cases for merger review is flexible but impractical as it relies on theories of harm rather than clear and objective criteria. Without clarification, there could be over-enforcement in which unproblematic mergers are reviewed, human resources are allocated inefficiently and legal uncertainty persists. The Commission should issue new guidance on which digital mergers are likely to be problematic, thus triggering referral for merger review. This is likely to be the case when the target’s user base overlaps with that of the acquirer, when the target is a leader in a future critical market and when the target is active in a core platform service.
Topic:: Economy, Innovation, European Commission, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

8725. A European policy mix to address food insecurity linked to Russia’s war

Author:: Georg Zachmann, Pauline Weil, and Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The Russian war against Ukraine has put at risk a significant share of global food exports, and has contributed significantly to strongly rising global food prices. This has made poor, food-import dependent countries more vulnerable, with potentially serious humanitarian consequences. The crisis also has negative security, migration and foreign policy repercussions for the European Union. The EU and its members have a number of policy levers to address the crisis. These include agricultural, trade, environment, aid, energy, fiscal and foreign policy. However, in the complex interplay of local and global, agricultural and non-agricultural markets, apparently simple solutions can have significant unintended consequences and policy trade-offs must be taken into account. While EU agricultural policy can address the crisis directly by adjusting production, energy policies also have an impact on food security through the complex relationship between the food and energy systems. Energy is an input to food production but also, as bioenergy, competes for agricultural commodities. Fiscal policy can discourage inefficient food consumption and food waste, while trade policy and aid can improve the allocation of agricultural production factors (eg fertilisers) and products. Increasing information sharing on food stocks and building trust are prerequisites for trade policy and diplomacy to limit export restrictions, thus alleviating some of the price pressures on international markets. The crisis highlights food-system fragilities when confronted with global conflicts, climate change and economic shocks. Policies should seek to increase shock-resilience, for example by reducing structural rigidities in production, trade and consumption patterns, and by encouraging sustainable production in import-dependent countries. This is especially important considering that most food production is locally consumed. Only 20 percent of the global cereals volume is traded, making the current shock significant in terms of globally traded volumes (Ukraine represents 10 percent of the global grain market), but not relative to overall volume (Ukraine represents 2 percent of global grain production).
Topic:: European Union, Food Security, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8726. How to implement the self-preferencing ban in the European Union’s Digital Markets Act

Author:: Christophe Carugati
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Large online platforms are intermediaries between end-users and business users. They sometimes propose their own products and services alongside those of rivals. This can lead to platforms promoting their offers over those of competitors in so-called self-preferencing. The European Union Digital Markets Act (DMA) bans large online platforms under its scope from treating their own products and services more favourably that those of rivals when ranking, crawling and indexing. Platforms – or gatekeepers in the DMA definition – should apply transparent, fair and non-discriminatory conditions when ranking products and services. However, the identification, detection, compliance with and monitoring of self-preferencing is complex and resource-intensive. It requires a case-by-case approach and access to and analysis of platform data and algorithms. The DMA allows gatekeepers to promote their own products and services if rivals are subject to the same treatment. Nonetheless, the DMA neither defines equal treatment nor the main elements of self-preferencing, thus preventing platforms within the DMA’s scope from correctly applying the prohibition. To ease enforcement, the European Commission should issue guidance on what constitutes self-preferencing under the DMA, outlining two main principles. First, gatekeepers should use objective and unbiased parameters to determine ranking, indexing and crawling. Second, gatekeepers should demonstrate equal treatment. The guidance will make compliance easier. The Commission should then monitor compliance by appointing and ensuring sufficient rotation of external auditors to avoid capture by gatekeepers. The Commission should also work with competent national authorities that develop technological tools. When monitoring flags a risk of non-compliance, the Commission should then further specify the ban on self-preferencing on a case-by-case basis.
Topic:: European Union, Digital Economy, Economy, Innovation, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

8727. Promotion of high capacity broadband to rebuild and recover from the pandemic

Author:: J. Scott Marcus, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Promoting high-quality fixed and mobile broadband for all, at an affordable price, is an important enabler of the digital transformation of society and will help close the digital divide. This became clearer than ever during the pandemic, when broadband access was a crucial enabler of remote work, distance learning, telemedicine and e-commerce. It has always been challenging to provide broadband access to all at an affordable price. The pandemic, global geopolitical tension and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated supply-chain disruptions in ways that make this even more difficult and potentially expensive. Promotion of broadband deployment, adoption and use are all important for both fixed and mobile broadband; however, different policy levers are needed in each case, on both the supply and demand sides. The market will not always deliver complete solutions. Consequently, there is a role for regulation, targeted industrial policy and public finance. Promotion of competition, combined with prompt and efficient provision of access to resources such as electromagnetic spectrum and access to land and rights of way, can be particularly important. G20 countries and others now seek a future-proof, sustainable and equitable recovery, meaning new sources of public revenues need to be considered. Broadband can be boosted by judicious use of recovery funds and expected new tax revenues arising from global tax reforms agreed within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Digital Economy, Innovation, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

8728. Completing Europe’s banking union: economic requirements and legal conditions

Author:: Thorsten Beck, Jan Pieter Krahnen, Philippe Martin, Franz Mayer, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Tobias Tröger, Beatrice di Mauro, Nicolas Veron, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union’s banking union project started in mid-2012 in response to the euro-area crisis, with the goal of breaking the bank-sovereign vicious circle. The objective was also to restore private liability in banking and to move towards an integrated supranational market for banking services. For all the progress achieved in the past decade, particularly in banking supervision, these aims have not yet been accomplished. This Policy Contribution analyses the deficiencies of the current framework and identifies possible responses, in line with three levels of reform ambition. We label these ‘incremental’ (broadening the scope for private-sector burden-sharing in future cases of bank failures), ‘real’ (effectively breaking the bank-sovereign vicious circle), and ‘cosmic’ (a single, seamlessly integrated banking market). European policymakers should set their sights on the second level, which we view as achievable within the current decade, requiring new EU legislation but no change to the European treaties.
Topic:: Regulation, Economy, Crisis Management, European Central Bank, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe

8729. Lessons for Europe from China’s quest for semiconductor self-reliance

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Pauline Weil
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Semiconductors are a critical input to production of information and communication technology and many other goods. The major economies want to be able to produce chips at home to avoid excessive dependence on supply chains in an increasingly unpredictable world, where trade is being compromised because of national security concerns. China was first in terms of timing and scale of funding to support its its semiconductor industry. Since 2015, China has spent $150 billion upgrading its semiconductor industry. Success, however, has been limited. China’s massive industrial policy effort has been most successful in increasing capacity for assembly of chips, though that is also the least value-added part of the semiconductor supply chain. Progress on chip design and fabrication in China remain underwhelming. The United States has also started implementing its $50 billion package to support the production of chips. The European Union, meanwhile, has not yet fully finalised its main semiconductor initiative, the European Chips Act. China’s experience offers a number of lessons. First, chip fabrication requires massive fixed asset investment and, therefore, large subsidies, but with no guarantee of success. Second, one reason for the underwhelming results of China’s semiconductor policy is US containment, through export controls and other measures. In this respect, the EU should find it easier than China to upgrade its chips industry but, given the costs, focusing on the highest-end part of the supply chain would be the best approach. Assembly and production of lower-end semiconductors already face overcapacity, given the financial resources already invested by China.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Economy, Trade Policy, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China and Europe

8730. How have sanctions impacted Russia?

Author:: Maria Demertzis, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Ben McWilliams, Elina Ribakova, and Simone Tagliapietra
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a series of sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and others. Sanctions included restrictions on Russia’s financial industry, its central bank and its coal and oil exporters, in addition to general export controls. Meanwhile, foreign companies have withdrawn voluntarily from the Russian market as a result of a ‘self-sanctioning’ trend. We assess the impact these sanctions have had on Russia’s economy in the immediate aftermath of the invasion and more structurally. Russian fiscal revenues have not suffered from sanctions sufficiently to reduce the length of this war. Effective management by the Bank of Russia has prevented financial instability and has therefore also protected the real economy. However, this picture of economic containment is coming to an end. Russia’s fiscal revenues are now beginning to take a hit; given the breadth of sanctions, the economy will suffer in the medium to long term. The voluntary departure of a large number of western firms, eventual energy decoupling by the EU and Russia’s inability to find equal alternatives will damage the Russian economy severely. As the Russian economy closes in on itself, it will become harder to find reliable data to evaluate the extent of the hit. Still greater sanctions coordination across the globe is needed to isolate the Russian economy, limit the flow of income into Russian coffers and therefore help stop the war.
Topic:: Governance, Sanctions, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8731. An assessment of Europe’s options for addressing the crisis in energy markets

Author:: Conall Heussaff, Simone Tagliapietra, Georg Zachmann, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wholesale prices for electricity and gas in the European Union have risen five to fifteen-fold, with severe impacts for households and businesses. The crisis is also creating liquidity problems for energy companies, with contagion risks for the financial sector. In response, European governments have taken a range of actions. Some have introduced measures at retail level, while others have introduced windfall-profit taxes on energy companies. Some countries have provided emergency liquidity to energy companies facing soaring collateral costs. Some energy companies have even been nationalised. Emergency-intervention proposals should be evaluated against three principles. First, energy supply must meet demand at prices that do not cause major damage to the European economy. Second, the most vulnerable consumers must be protected. Third, measures should be consistent with the case for investment in a sustainable energy system, in order to safeguard Europe’s ability to decouple structurally from fossil-fuel imports. Gas price caps have been proposed as an emergency measure in different forms: a cap on Russian gas only, a cap on gas used in electricity generation, a cap on all wholesale gas. All entail significant risks. The first might lead to a full stop of Russian gas into the EU. The second might increase gas demand from the electricity sector. The third might raise gas demand and also undermine Europe’s ability to attract much-needed gas supplies. Instead of capping gas prices, the EU should engage collectively with external gas suppliers and negotiate new long-term contracts with provisions to limit price volatility. A September 2022 European Commission proposal involving electricity demand reduction, a revenue cap on inframarginal generation, solidarity payments from fossil-fuel companies and consumer support measures, is broadly positive, notably because it emphasises demand reduction. However, it is not sufficient. A more comprehensive plan needs to ensure that all countries bring forward every available supply-side flexibility, make real efforts to reduce gas and electricity demand, keep their energy markets open and pool demand to get a better deal from external gas suppliers. In the longer term, measures to split the markets for energy generated from renewables and fossil fuels should be examined.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Energy Sector, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

8732. Will Ukraine’s refugees go home?

Author:: Uri Dadush and Pauline Weil
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: About 15 percent of the population has fled Ukraine since the start of the Russian aggression in February 2022. Nearly 4 million Ukrainians have already registered in European Union countries. Based in part on evidence that few refugees return voluntarily to poor countries once they settle in rich countries, even once security is re-established at home, it can be expected that large numbers of Ukrainian refugees are likely to remain in European host countries, and will likely be joined by others, including many men that remained to fight when the conflict is over. Ukraine already has a long history of emigration. Its shattered economy, the likelihood of a protracted conflict and significant uncertainty with regard to its final status reinforce the argument that most refugees will not return and many more will join them. EU nations must prepare for. There will be large short-term costs and long-term economic gains from Ukrainian immigration in Europe. The best way to help Ukraine, and to moderate the likely outflow of its people, will be to assist in the country’s reconstruction, and not to place artificial impediments to the immigration of individuals who have already suffered greatly.
Topic:: Migration, Governance, Reconstruction, Refugees, Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8733. Enlarging and deepening: giving substance to the European Political Community

Author:: Franz Mayer, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Daniela Schwarzer, and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz have stressed the geopolitical emergency of re-designing the European Union’s relationship with its neighbourhood. Both acknowledge that EU enlargement is necessary, but also emphasise that profound EU institutional reform is required beforehand, though deepening and widening the EU are complex processes that veto players could block. The geopolitical challenges mean it is in the critical interest of the EU to bring stability to its neighbourhood by ensuring geopolitical alignment with the EU, limiting the blackmailing power of external, authoritarian states, supporting more resilient democracies and strengthening the rule of law. Meanwhile, the EU’s neighbours are seeking a political space in which challenges to collective security and stability can be addressed and concrete policies decided. Given the urgency, it is not enough to rely on lengthy EU accession processes. A ‘European Political Community’ (EPC), which will have its first summit on 6 October 2022, could act both as a bridge to an eventual larger EU and as a framework for continental-scale partnership. Leaders should use the summit to start the building of a platform that can combine political dialogue with policy delivery in a quick and flexible way, and will thus structure more impactfully the relationship between the EU and its neighbourhood. The EPC could start as a soft law agreement between states and the EU. It would work with existing institutions as far as possible, while aiming at more effective decision-making than currently in the EU. For instance it could function without vetoes and could work in geopolitically relevant areas that are not yet EU competences. An ambitious EPC would provide financial resources for deeper cooperation on energy and climate, security and defence, and economic and social convergence. The EPC would not be, and should not be, regarded as a substitute for EU accession, but should be designed in such a way that it can work as an accelerator. For countries not seeking to join the EU, it would provide an ongoing framework that sustains structured cooperation with the EU.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

8734. A grand bargain to steer through the European Union’s energy crisis

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Europe’s energy system faces unprecedented physical and institutional stress. The policy response so far has been excessively nationally focussed and could undermine the goals of calming energy markets over the next 18 months and achieving ambitious decarbonisation targets. At the basis of the crisis is a post-COVID-19 global energy imbalance. While demand bounced back quickly as economies re-opened, supply did not. A particular challenge is that the reducing supply of fossil fuels in line with climate targets has not been matched by a commensurate reduction of fossil-fuel demand. Russian manipulation of European natural gas markets since summer 2021, exploiting its significant market power, has deepened the crisis. Finally, events including weak French nuclear output and the ongoing drought, which has cut hydropower generation, have further escalated the situation. In response to high and volatile prices and forced demand reduction, European governments have tended to opt for narrow and uncoordinated measures that prioritise national security of supply and affordability over an integrated European approach. Subsidising energy consumption instead of demand reduction has been a common and misguided approach. Governments run the risk that energy consumption subsidies become unsustainable, eroding trust in energy markets, slowing action in sanctioning Russia and increasing the cost of the net-zero transition. An integrated European approach and a coordinated plan is essential to address the crisis. European Union leaders must strike a grand energy bargain based on four broad principles: (i) all countries bringing forward every available supply-side flexibility, (ii) all countries making comprehensive efforts to reduce demand, (iii) a political committing to maintain energy markets and cross-border flows, (iv) compensation for the most vulnerable consumers. This grand bargain can be the first step on a new course towards united energy policy at EU level.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Crisis Management, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

8735. A Report to Congress on Sources of and Access to State Death Data

Author:: Brenna Issman
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: Data on deaths in America are collected and maintained by state vital records offices (VROs). Yet, these data are vitally important to administering federal programs like the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, identifying eligible individual survivor benefits, and preventing improper payments to deceased individuals. SSA also shares this death data with qualifying federal and state agencies for programmatic purposes. Because these data are initially collected by VROs, a series of budgetary, information security, and reporting issues arise when the data are used by federal agencies. Most VROs rely heavily on death certificate fees purchased by the public to support vital event activities, including the implementation and maintenance of Electronic Death Registration (EDR) Systems. In accordance with Section 802 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) conducted a study and prepared a report to Congress on the sources of and access to death data for SSA, identifying unmet needs of federal agencies and developing a set of options for providing federal agencies with limited access to state death data. These options were developed to bolster program integrity, address the need for data privacy and security, and best reflect the efficient and effective roles and responsibilities of federal and state agencies. This study highlights the criticality of the intergovernmental system and two of the Academy’s Grand Challenges in Public Administration - Fostering Social Equity and Ensuring Data Security and Privacy Rights of Individuals. As VROs rely on fees from the public for the majority of their funding, it is important to consider both the economic impact on those who pay for death certificates for recently deceased loved ones and the value of state death data to federal agencies. Increased use of EDR for the collection and transfer of death data from the states to the federal government requires enhanced cybersecurity measures to protect the public against fraud and identity theft. The Academy continues to explore these grand challenges as well as intersections of the federal, state, and local issues through the Center for Intergovernmental Partnerships. I would like to thank the National Association for Public Health Statistics and Information Systems (NAPHSIS), the many VRO officials, and the SSA representatives who provided their time and knowledge to the Study Team and Panel over the last year. I am also deeply appreciative of the work of the Study Team and to the Panel of five Academy Fellows whose expertise and experience guided the development of this report. Their careful analysis and thoughtful insights resulted in evidence-based options for consideration for Congress and SSA that will help improve death data sharing between the states and federal government.
Topic:: Governance, Social Security, Federalism, and Death
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8736. Welfare Implications of Electric Bike Subsidies: Evidence from Sweden

Author:: Anders Anderson and Harrison Hong
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. transportation account for about 29 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest contributor by sector to global warming in the United States. Within the U.S. transportation sector, cars are responsible for 58 percent of all transportation emissions according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Along with electric cars, electric bikes (also known as pedelecs or e‑bikes) are a potentially important tool to address global warming. With rechargeable batteries, they are capable of long distances and hence can replace car trips for work in dense and growing urban areas around the world.
Topic:: Climate Change, Welfare, Transportation, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Europe and Sweden

8737. Jawboning against Speech: How Government Bullying Shapes the Rules of Social Media

Author:: Will Duffield
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Over the past two decades, social media has drastically reduced the cost of speaking, allowing users the world over to publish with the push of a button. This amazing capability is limited by the fact that speakers do not own the platforms they increasingly rely on. If access to the platforms is withdrawn, speakers lose the reach that social media grants. In America, government censorship is limited by the First Amendment. Nevertheless, seizing upon the relationship between platforms and speakers, government officials increasingly demand that platforms refrain from publishing disfavored speech. They threaten platforms with punitive legislation, antitrust investigations, and prosecution. Government officials can use informal pressure — bullying, threatening, and cajoling — to sway the decisions of private platforms and limit the publication of disfavored speech. The use of this informal pressure, known as jawboning, is growing. Left unchecked, it threatens to become normalized as an extraconstitutional method of speech regulation. While courts have censured jawboning in other contexts, existing judicial remedies struggle to address social media jawboning. Amid the opacity and scale of social media moderation, government influence is difficult to detect or prevent. Ultimately, congressional rulemaking and the people’s selection of liberal, temperate officials remain the only reliable checks on this novel threat to free speech.
Topic:: Government, Regulation, Social Media, Censorship, and Free Speech
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

8738. The Black Hole of National Security: Striking the Right Balance for the National Security Exception in International Trade

Author:: James Bacchus
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) reserves for members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) the legal authority to restrict trade in goods to protect members’ “essential” security interests. Similar exceptions to WTO trade obligations exist in other WTO agreements. For more than seven decades, WTO members exercised self‐restraint in invoking these exceptions, doing so only for narrow purposes and in truly exceptional circumstances to avoid pushing the boundaries of the law too far and thereby upending the delicate balance between members’ legitimate pursuit of their security interests and their obligations to reduce barriers to trade. Yet, trade restrictions justified on national security grounds have proliferated in recent years and are increasingly subject to litigation in WTO dispute settlement. As a result, the national security provisions contained within the WTO agreements, as well as fundamental questions about the nexus between trade and national security, are set to be tested and clarified by WTO jurists—a less than ideal outcome that could lead to the further undermining of WTO dispute settlement and the rules‐based international trading system more broadly. This paper explains the origins of the national security exceptions in the GATT and the WTO agreements and the history of their invocation, summarizes recent litigation that has clarified these exceptions, discusses current developments and upcoming litigation that could prove pivotal to our understanding of the trade‐security nexus and the future of the world trading system, and offers some concluding thoughts on the options available to WTO members for striking a balance between trade liberalization and the defense of national security.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, National Security, World Trade Organization, and Tariffs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8739. The Human Perils of Scaling Smart Technologies: Evidence from Field Experiments

Author:: Alec Brandon, Christopher M. Clapp, John A. List, Robert D. Metcalfe, and Michael Price
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Economists have long argued that an essential driver of economic growth is innovation. Past work has shown that differences in production technologies represent an important source of disparities in patterns of long‐run economic growth across countries. For instance, some estimates suggest that roughly 50 percent of growth in U.S. annual gross domestic product can be attributed to innovation. Not surprisingly, policymakers have thus focused significant attention on policies designed to stimulate innovation and the supply of new technologies. Yet innovation includes not only the creation but also the diffusion of new technologies and products in the marketplace.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8740. Behavioral Responses to Supply‐Side Drug Policy during the Opioid Epidemic

Author:: Simone Balestra, Heige Liebert, and Nicole Maestas
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In the last 20 years, the use of prescription opioids has grown dramatically in the United States. Since 1999, the number of opioid prescriptions increased by 300 percent, surpassing 255 million prescriptions in 2012 (81.3 prescriptions per 100 people) before declining to 153 million prescriptions by 2019 (46.7 per 100 people). Opioids may be an effective analgesic for acute pain, but they are also associated with high risks of addiction and overdose. Death rates from opioid poisoning tripled between 2000 and 2014, contributing to a stunning reversal in 1999 of the long‐running decline in midlife mortality. The increase in overdose deaths was initially driven by prescription opioid poisonings, but the more recent surge in deaths has been attributed to illicit opioids such as heroin and fentanyl.
Topic:: Economy, Drugs, Public Health, and Opioid Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8741. A Shaky Foundation: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability in the Middle East

Author:: Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: American foreign policy in the Middle East is based on a myth. For decades, policymakers have worked to prop up Middle Eastern autocracies out of the belief that they serve as the only bulwark against chaos and threats to American interests in the region. This approach gets things backward. Rather than being the solution to the region’s various problems, these actors are responsible for producing and exacerbating the greatest underlying problems in the region, and a blank check from Washington allows them to act with impunity both at home and abroad. Accordingly, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is in desperate need of an overhaul.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East

8742. Practical Legislation to Support Cryptocurrency Innovation

Author:: Jack Solowey and Jennifer J. Schulp
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In bull and bear cycles alike, cryptocurrencies have commanded the attention of markets and policymakers. The 117th Congress has introduced dozens of bills addressing the crypto ecosystem.1 In addition, multiple regulators have been outspoken about their readiness to be the “cop on the beat” when it comes to overseeing crypto markets.2 Nonetheless, key questions remain about how best to regulate the crypto ecosystem and the extent to which current laws and regulations apply. This briefing paper proposes a cryptocurrency regulatory framework with the goals of dispelling uncertainty, unencumbering entrepreneurship, and providing practical consumer protections.3 The framework recognizes the unique risks and benefits of cryptocurrencies, proposing a clear‐cut test for whether crypto projects trigger securities laws and a common‐sense registration and disclosure option for those that do.
Topic:: Entrepreneurship, Legislation, Innovation, and Cryptocurrencies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8743. Crumbling cornerstone? Australia’s education ties with Southeast Asia

Author:: Susannah Patton
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? Successive Australian governments have billed education as the cornerstone of its people-to-people connections and influence in Southeast Asia. Yet the era of the Colombo Plan, in which Australia educated the region’s top leaders, is over. Changing economic relativities, and the success of both established and new competitors such as China and Japan, mean Australia’s access and influence through education to the region’s future leaders will decline. Moreover, a narrow focus on Southeast Asia as a market for generating international student revenue may lead to Australia missing opportunities to help build regional human capacity and advance its bilateral relationships. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? The Australian government needs to increase and diversify scholarship offerings to students from Southeast Asia. This includes refocusing on the Australia Awards and reintroducing a merit-based scholarship targeted at the regional countries that do not receive bilateral development assistance from Australia (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei). A new international education strategy should develop a focus on building regional human capacity, rather than viewing international students solely in terms of a market opportunity. The government should also reshape the New Colombo Plan to focus more on long-term study opportunities to ensure it is meeting its original goal of strengthening Australia’s relationships with countries in the broader Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Education, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Australia and Southeast Asia

8744. WeChat’s role in Australian democracy: A grassroots view

Author:: Xueyin Zha
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The social media messaging app WeChat is often portrayed in expert and media commentary as being inherently incompatible with democracy in Australia because the platform is subject to the scrutiny and censure of China, an authoritarian one-party state. This study provides the first in-depth snapshot of how politicians and everyday Chinese-Australians use WeChat at the grassroots level during council elections. It finds that WeChat, in these circumstances, can be broadly compatible with liberal democracy and significantly enhances democratic participation in a multicultural society. Using the December 2021 New South Wales (NSW) local elections as a case study, this paper analyses qualitative data collected from private group chats, interviews with Chinese-Australian politicians, and editors from media outlets on WeChat. The study finds that, overall, the app expanded, rather than restricted, Chinese-Australian voters’ access to quality news content to better inform their choices at the ballot box. The platform was used to bridge gaps in the provision of public services and information to Chinese-Australian communities and facilitated their civic engagement. Despite its benefits, WeChat is afflicted by issues relating to censorship, transparency, online polarisation, and mis- and disinformation. Australia’s stark political differences and fraught bilateral relations with China add additional layers of complexity to managing these challenges. However, improved oversight and governance arrangements, alongside enhanced funding for reliable Chinese-language online media, would help offset the risk of foreign influence and better harness the platform’s utility for bolstering the participation of Chinese-Australian communities in Australia’s democracy.
Topic:: Democracy, Social Media, Political Participation, and WeChat
Political Geography:: China and Australia

8745. Australia in the Middle East: Enduring risks, interests, and opportunities

Author:: Rodger Shanahan
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: As Australia refocuses its foreign and defence policies on its near abroad, it must be careful not to allow ties with the Middle East to fall into neglect. This analysis examines the impact that two decades of security engagement in the Middle East have had on Australia’s relations with the region and argues that while Canberra may have largely ended the country’s military commitments in the Middle East, the region is more important in more ways to Australia than it was before that commitment got underway. An expanded Australian diplomatic footprint, growing economic ties, and more extensive people-to-people links with the Middle East means that the region and its security risks have greater domestic relevance for Australia than they did two decades ago.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Australia

8746. Chinese coercion, Australian resilience

Author:: Richard McGregor
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australians have grown in confidence about the country’s ability to withstand economic coercion from China since the imposition of punitive trade measures in 2020. Beijing suspended high-level political exchanges and imposed a range of informal sanctions and trade blockages against Australia in the wake of a series of escalating disputes, culminating in Canberra’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 in April that year. Two years on, it is prudent to plan on the basis that it is still early days in China’s use of trade measure against Australia. Canberra and Beijing resumed ministerial-level dialogue after the election of the Albanese Labor government in May 2022. But given the long-term structural divide between the United States and China, and Australia’s position as a strong US ally, Australian governments of all persuasions should assume that China’s trade policies against Australia will remain largely in place. Beijing may tactically retreat now and again to fill shortfalls or if it wants for political reasons to present itself as a conciliatory partner. But a solution to the fundamental bilateral political tensions driving trade disruptions is not on the horizon. The sectors in which bilateral trade with China have continued to prosper are not those in which Australian producers are dependent on China but rather where the two countries are interdependent. Australia cannot find alternative markets to match China for commodities such as iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and wool. Nor can China wean itself off a substantial reliance on Australia as a supplier. For this reason, the core elements of bilateral trade will remain reasonably resilient for some years. However, absent a huge change in the structure of the Australian economy and its export profile, the longer-term picture for exports to China looks worse. As China’s economy grows and its structure changes and becomes less resource intensive, Australia will likely get a decreasing share of a growing pie. Over time, the cost of trade bans and other punitive measures will likely mount as Chinese investment in Australia diminishes and the cost of diversifying from the region’s largest economy grows. Australia has maintained its reputation as a reliable supplier of commodities throughout the downturn in bilateral relations with China. It is imperative that it continue to do so — both to benefit the Australian economy and to maintain leverage of its own. Control over critical commodities carries considerable strategic value, as the role of gas and oil in the Ukraine war has shown.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Commodities, Trade, Resilience, and Coercion
Political Geography:: China and Australia

8747. Sharper choices: How Australia can make better national security decisions

Author:: Ben Scott
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: As Australia’s national security environment has grown more complex and competitive, the country’s governments have gradually articulated their strategic response, primarily in the 2016 Defence White Paper, the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, and the 2020 Defence Strategic Update. In these documents, and in major speeches, Australian governments have adopted four broad strategic concepts: the embattled rules-based order, the return of great power competition, the expansion of grey zone competition, and the increased likelihood of major power war. There is no master theory that can entirely explain Australia’s situation and guide its decision-makers. A national security strategy is necessary, but its utility will be limited by the increasingly unpredictable course of geopolitics. The strategic concepts Australia has adopted illuminate its interests, objectives, and the types of issues Canberra must grapple with. But these concepts also mask many of the difficult choices Australia will face. Focusing on the paradox of “competitive independence” brings additional clarity to the country’s policy dilemmas but does not resolve them. Responding to greater uncertainty will require greater case-by-case decision-making. But this does not mean the government should simply muddle through. Rather, it should seek to improve the quality of its decision-making by following through on Australia’s history of imposing more structure on national security decision-making. Acknowledging the complexity of the challenges it faces, the government should more often seek discrete assessments of national security problems to ensure that all relevant dimensions are considered. This would help ensure that Australia’s long-term strategic goals are considered when critical decisions are made.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: China and Australia

8748. Mixed report card: China’s influence at the United Nations

Author:: Courtney J. Fung and Shing-hon Lam
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: China is of growing importance to the United Nations. Beijing aims to exert influence at the world body to legitimise and disseminate its foreign policy values and interests. This report contextualises China’s growing presence at the United Nations by examining publicly available data on four metrics that gauge Beijing’s success in steering the global governance agenda. Those metrics are: funding for UN departments, programs, and initiatives; staffing of executive-level personnel positions; voting in the UN General Assembly and UN Security Council; and the use of PRC-specific discourse and language in UN-generated documentation. The United Nations has become progressively more reliant on China’s general contributions, and in turn China has used a combination of levers to elevate its position within the UN system. However, this report finds that China is still selective in its overall approach to UN participation and that efforts by the PRC do not necessarily translate into successful influence at the body. The report makes three recommendations for UN stakeholders. First, a deeper understanding must be gained of what China contributes across different UN agencies and functional areas to establish a more complete picture of its multilateral input. Second, efforts should be made to shape China’s engagement in multilateral issues, in particular those that the PRC is yet to prioritise, such as refugee management. Third, it is vital to articulate an inclusive multilateral vision for a rules-based international order that specifies under which conditions China’s contributions are embraced, rather than framing PRC input solely as a source of concern.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, Governance, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: China and Asia

8749. Inshore Balancers and Reborn Opportunities: Middle Powers and the Silk Road Region

Author:: Christopher Mott
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: a middle power is a regionally potent state that lacks the global heft of a great power. In a specific localized context, however, it can behave as a great power. This strong regional focus leads to massive differentials in calculating its geopolitical weight based on proximity alone. Such states do not simply project power, however, but are long‑term regional anchors that outlast any one particular government or foreign policy stance. Their geographic base is thus also one of historical rootedness, with some version of political power stretching back generations and even across different successor governments. Thus, geography and history intertwine to create favorable security opportunities for local actors with the capacity to increase their influence in their respective neighborhoods.
Topic:: Hegemony, Power, Influence, and Middle Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8750. The Centrality of Karabakh in Caucasus Geopolitics

Author:: Svante Cornell
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan’s ability to reassert its territorial integrity in the 2020 war with Armenia was a major event in the modern history of the Caucasus. This war, commonly called the Second Karabakh War, showed the continued centrality of Karabakh in the geopolitics of the Caucasus. Even more specifically, the citadel of Shusha is the center of the Caucasus: the capital of the former Karabakh Khanate, Shusha lies at the center of this conflict and thus of the region’s geopolitics. Surprisingly, very few scholars have underlined this critical point; in fact, only two studies spring immediately to mind. The first is by Elchin Amirbayov, who in 2001 wrote a report for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center on Shusha’s “pivotal role” in any future Karabakh settlement; the second is by Faris Shafiyev, who in 2021 contributed a chapter on the “paramount significance” of Shusha in a book co‑edited for ADA University Press by the Co‑Editors of Baku Dialogues. (Amirbayov is presently an adviser to the First Vice President of Azerbaijan; Shafiyev is presently the chairman of the Center of Analysis of International Relations. Both are former Azerbaijani ambassadors.) To reiterate: Shusha has been—in military and symbolic terms—the center of the Armenia‑Azerbaijan conflict, with wide implications that have gone beyond that. For example, it was the loss of Shusha in May 1992 that spelled the end of the first post‑Soviet government of Azerbaijan. Conversely, it was the occupation of Shusha that same year that sealed the Armenia‑Russia alliance, which formed one of the major geopolitical axes of the post‑Soviet Caucasus. But it was also Azerbaijan’s retaking of Shusha that ended the Second Karabakh War. On a deeper level, the Armenia‑Azerbaijan conflict (which centered on but was not limited to Karabakh) formed the main dividing line in the Caucasus. This conflict ensured that the Caucasus was composed of states that were suspicious of each other or in conflict with each other, instead of developing statehood and sovereignty and cooperation together.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Regionalism, and Statehood
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Azerbaijan

8751. How the Caspian Can Help Solve Europe’s Gas Woes: A Close Look at the Trans Caspian Connector Project

Author:: John Roberts
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The plentiful natural gas reserves in and around the Caspian constitute an obvious medium‑ to long‑term source of supply for Europe. What may be more surprising is that they also constitute the only source of sustained pipeline gas delivery that can improve Europe’s gas balance within months or even weeks. There are four elements that define the issue. The first is Europe’s requirement for gas. The second is the availability of gas for immediate or early input into the equation. The third is the question of the capacity of available infrastructure to carry the gas to market. Finally, there is the question of whether there is the political support to implement such measures.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Gas, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe

8752. Drones and Resets: The New Era of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Rich Outzen and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Turkish foreign policy under Recep Tayyip Erdogan has gone through a number of turns since 2003, characterized by the country’s leader continuously taking stock of domestic and global dynamics whilst navigating between the U.S. and Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. He came to power in Ankara 19 years ago after rising through Türkiye’s political Islamist movement, serving first as prime minister and since 2014 as president. Erdogan’s foreign policy approach over two decades can be divided into a number of periods: an initial era of aspirational multilateralism with a strong pro‑EU tilt, until roughly 2009; an ambitious period of regional assertion marked by failed support for the Muslim Brotherhood and the Arab uprisings, until around 2015; an increasingly unilateral, hard‑power driven period through 2020; and what appears to be a new era blending hard power—enabled and symbolized by Turkish drones—and a Ukraine war, in which Türkiye is, simultaneously, selling drones to Kyiv and courting Washington while implementing the 1936 Montreux Treaty to limit its frenemy Moscow’s access to the Black Sea. Together with recent steps aimed at rapprochement with Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), these last factors encapsulate the new era of Turkish foreign policy—albeit one overshadowed at the moment by Ankara’s unwillingness to unconditionally approve Swedish and Finnish accession to NATO.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

8753. Türkiye and the Russia-Ukraine War: Impact on the West, Central Asia, and the Caucasus

Author:: Matthew Bryza
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: During a recent webinar, I was asked to address the following question: what does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for Türkiye’s approach to the Caucasus and Central Asia? At first, the question struck me as odd. Having worked on these issues since the late 1990s and now living in Istanbul, it seemed obvious to me that Türkiye’s goals in these regions have been enduring since the end of the Cold War and were not changing because of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine. These goals, I said, were and remain to: secure westward exports of oil and natural gas produced in the Caspian Basin; promote stability in the South Caucasus; and strengthen Türkiye’s business and cultural ties with the Turkic populations of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Türkiye’s approach toward Russia in this context also remains what it has been since the Ottoman centuries: cooperate where possible but confront where necessary. Reflecting momentarily on this question, however, I realized how different Ankara’s goals appear from the perspectives of Washington, Paris, and Athens. In these and other NATO capitals, Turkish foreign policy seems to have shifted from its pursuit of “zero problems with neighbors” during the early years of the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to one of “zero neighbors without problems.” Türkiye is thus viewed within the Atlantic Alliance as a belligerent outlier, bent on violating international law to pursue the extraction of Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons, enabling Azerbaijan to use military force during the Second Karabakh War, and aligning in Syria more with Russia than with its own treaty allies.
Topic:: Security, War, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

8754. How the Conflict Over Ukraine Affects Security in the South Caucasus

Author:: Nargiz Gafarova
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Against the background of the present stage of the conflict over Ukraine, the South Caucasus is experiencing perturbation. Three examples rise immediately to mind: elements of the 10 November 2020 tripartite between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia that ended the Second Karabakh War statement (and the arrangements that have derived from it) are being suboptimally implemented; the leaders of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia continue to hold out the possibility to conduct a referendum on “unification” with Russia; and the uncertain outcome of the talks in Vienna to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Such and similar examples have led all three South Caucasus states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) to pursue variants of a policy some call “neutrality” and others “hedging” between the parties to the conflict over Ukraine. Located at the intersection of Europe, Russia, and the Greater Middle East—and thus constituting the western part of the Silk Road region, as defined by the Editorial Statement of Baku Dialogues—the South Caucasus is one of the most important and, at the same time, one of the most potentially explosive areas bordering the West. Over the past several decades, developments within all three South Caucasus states have contributed to a general sense of insecurity within the region. These include, most obviously, ethno‑political conflicts, civil wars, and color revolutions; the lackluster development of Western‑style governance institutions; and the widely‑held perception of ongoing high levels of corruption. Even the potentially positive strategic consequences of the outcome of the Second Karabakh War—namely, the prospect for the normalization of two sets of bilateral relationships (Armenia‑Azerbaijan and Armenia‑Türkiye) and the unblocking of all economic and transport connections in the region—have been overshadowed by the ongoing restructuring of world order, manifested by the increase of geopolitical volatility and ambiguity due to the major escalation of the conflict over Ukraine whose present phase began on 24 February 2022. The effects of the Western‑led sanctions and export restrictions regime against Russia have spilled over into the South Caucasus— notwithstanding the fact that none of the region’s states have formally aligned themselves with them. This essay provides an overview of the reverberations of the conflict over Ukraine towards the South Caucasus, with a focus on its impact on the region’s political, economic, and security environment.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, and Asia

8755. ‘Strasbourg’ in the South Caucasus: The EU’s Opportunities, Obstacles, and Incentives

Author:: Rick Fawn
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Implausible might be the hyperbole of “once in a generation.” Occasionally, overstatement is legitimate and necessary. Just as the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline revolutionized development and income in the South Caucasus a generation ago, so too (and more) are the prospects of reconstruction in the region due to Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War. The possibilities for win‑win progress and growth are truly unprecedented. Hyperbolic hope faces challenges, and they need reconciliation with the unprecedented opportunities now recasting the South Caucasus— with potential betterment of the peoples and countries of the region, and even for the wider world. This essay first considers the momentous changes already underway as well as the significances they portend. It then assesses obstacles, and thereafter suggests ‘Strasbourg’ as a multi‑faceted label for contributions both to overcome them and help to realize fully the ambitions for this region. To be precise: ‘Strasbourg’ here means the physical, technological, and financial involvement of the EU in regional infrastructural development, including linkages of the South Caucasus more widely, and also as a metaphor for deep‑seated, historically truthful reconciliation. (In the Summer 2021 edition of Baku Dialogues, elements of both meanings were put forward by F. Murat Özkaleli in an article titled “Winning the Peace” and are built upon here.) This thinking takes even greater significance as Euro‑Atlantic planning will concentrate on redefining relations in this region due to conflict over Ukraine.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, and Asia

8756. The “One China” Issue in U.S.-China Relations

Author:: Zhiqun Zhu
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia in September 2022 caused some limited geopolitical commotion, as most readers of Baku Dialogues are keenly aware. Without downplaying its regional significance in the slightest, it was, however, her visit to Taiwan in August 2022 that made global headlines and triggered a new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the core of that controversy is the status of Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the visit as a violation of the “one China principle,” the U.S. government and Pelosi herself insisted that it was consistent with America’s “one China policy.” Five decades after U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China, the Taiwan issue remains the most difficult and potentially most explosive dispute between the United States and China. While Beijing maintains that the “one China principle,” with the PRC representing all of China, is the foundation of U.S.‑China relations, Washington emphasizes that its “one China policy” treats Taiwan as a separate entity from the PRC. Meanwhile, Taipei, under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has asserted that Taiwan is already independent and the two sides across the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other. As the U.S.‑China rivalry intensifies, Taiwan has quickly re‑emerged as the biggest hot‑button issue between the two great powers. The Taiwan issue is so serious that it routinely tops the agenda of meetings and phone calls between Chinese and U.S. officials, including calls between PRC President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Shortly before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Xi warned that “those who play with fire will get burned” during a phone call with Biden.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Leadership, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8757. The Lynchpin of the Middle Corridor

Author:: Anthony Kim
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Particularly in today’s evolving geopolitical and economic reality triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Caspian region has gained greater relevance whilst acquiring renewed significance. More specifically, one of the geostrategic consequences of Putin’s ongoing assault against Ukraine and its broader implications for the global economy has been the enhanced impetus for ensuring the pragmatic and strategic utility of the “Middle Corridor” (also more formally known as the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route, or TITR) for the Caspian region and beyond as a viable commercial transport route alternative to the long‑established northern pathway through Russia. China, which has been eager to expand its economic networks, had hoped to dominate economically the utilization of the Middle Corridor as part of an expanding BRI. But at least some of the countries in the region (and beyond) have grown increasingly uneasy about participating in it. They have viewed China as leaving many of its BRI promises unfulfilled. And they have also become more concerned that Beijing’s BRI engagement comes with too many geopolitical strings attached and can lead to debt traps. By and large, China has invested in a number of infrastructure projects in Central Asia within the framework of BRI. Most of China’s activity has taken place on the eastern shore of the Caspian. Major port, pipeline, and infrastructure projects on the Caspian’s western shore have been done without much, if any, direct Chinese involvement. Making the Middle Corridor work properly is not an easy task: it will take considerable degrees of time, financial means, and political commitment. With many economic and political challenges lingering around, by no means, the cross‑country transportation route could become the cheapest option any time soon. Nonetheless, in an increasingly raucous world where diversifying supply chains reduce risk and has become more desirable, the route could become not only fully viable but, more importantly, truly cost‑effective.
Topic:: Security, Development, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

8758. Strategic Opportunity for the Middle Corridor?

Author:: Selcuk Colakoglu
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Connectivity initiatives across the Eurasian landmass have been on global and regional agendas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with the newly independent countries of the Silk Road region prioritizing efforts to reach international markets so as to strengthen their strategic independence from Moscow. Amongst the numerous Silk Road connectivity initiatives, the Middle Corridor has the aim of building an efficient East‑West corridor involving countries located between the European Union and China (except for Russia). This essay analyses the pros and cons of the Middle Corridor project from the perspective of some of the countries most concerned, starting with Türkiye. It also examines how the COVID‑19 pandemic and the 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war have affected the implementation of this initiative.
Topic:: Pandemic, COVID-19, Global Health, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Eurasia

8759. Inventory of data on economic activity and deforestation in the Amazon Basin

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Multiple factors shape land change and land use patterns in the Amazon Basin.This note aims to identify data sources for two specific phenomena: changes in land cover and GHG emissions. It also considers key economic sectors that accelerate deforestation including livestock and agricultural development. To this end, the focus is on available data sources across three countries with an analysis of their geographic scope, depth of detail, and the frequency and periodicity with which they are reported.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

8760. Connecting the Dots: Territories and Trajectories of Environmental Crime in the Brazilian Amazon and Beyond

Author:: Laura Trajber Waisbich and Terine Husek
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: A new study by the Igarapé institute analyzing more than 300 Federal Police operations between 2016 and 2021 found that environmental crime in the Amazon region is not only organized but far more than a local problem. Indeed, this vertibable criminal ecosystem behind Amazon plunder has expanded nationwide, reaching 24 of Brazil’s 27 states as well as neighboring nations. According to the study “Connecting the Dots: Territories and Trajectories of Environmental Crime in the Brazilian Amazon and Beyond”, published Wednesday July 20, the federal operations flagged criminal networks in 846 venues across Brazil and the region. This article is the latest in our series “Mapping Environmental Crime in the Amazon Basin.” The police ops focused largely on the nine states comprising Brazil’s Legal Amazon region, where spreading criminal activities took investigators to 197 municipalities, representing 75% of total interventions. Police also targeted environmental crimes in 57 Brazilian municipalities outside the Amazon region, and another eight cities in neighboring countries. The Federal Police interventions were triggered by unchecked deforestation associated with a variety of unlawful economic activities, from outright crimes to nominally licit market activity tainted by crime. These include illegal timber extraction, illicit mining (especially gold), land grabbing and predatory farming and ranching. This criminal network was first explored in Igarapé’s strategic paper, published earlier this year, “The Ecosystem of Environmental Crime in Amazonia: An Analysis of Illicit Economies in the Forest.” The current study takes a deeper dive into the widening criminal nexus that undergirds environmental crimes and related offenses, including illegal money flows, tax evasion, corruption, fraud and criminal violence.
Topic:: Crime, Environment, Law Enforcement, Deforestation, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

8761. Advancing Youth Inclusion and Violence Prevention through Public Support Programmes

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: State-run socio-economic and livelihood support programmes have been shown to increase the social inclusion of young people and thereby contribute to the prevention of violence involving youth. This practice brief outlines strategies for civil society practitioners to advocate for these public programmes, improve their implementation and amplify their positive effects, based on experiences in Southern and East Africa.
Topic:: Youth, Violence, Inclusion, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and East Africa

8762. Youth Inclusion in the Development of South Africa's National Youth Policy (2020–2030): Reflections and Recommendations

Author:: Steven Rebello
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: South Africa's National Youth Policy (NYP) 2020–2030 (DWYPD, 2020) represents the country's third attempt to outline actions that can or should be taken, by government and other stakeholders, to facilitate youth development at local and national levels. Meaningful youth inclusion and participation represents a central value within this policy. This emphasis on inclusion aligns with the Constitution of South Africa, where public participation in governance is enshrined as a constitutional imperative. Recognising this emphasis on youth inclusion, the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR) engaged with a key representative within the Department of Women, Youth and People with Disabilities (DWYPD) to determine what steps or activities the department has initiated to include youth in the development of the NYP 2020–2030 (hereafter referred to as the NYP 2030).
Topic:: Development, Governance, Youth, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

8763. The Youth's Continent: Meaningful Youth Inclusion in Policy and Programme Cycles

Author:: Steven Rebello, Brian Kimari, and Mwangi Mwaura
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief develops from research carried out by the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR, South Africa) and the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS, Kenya). Known as the Youth Inclusion for Violence Prevention Project, this research investigated the role of socio-economic and livelihood support programmes in promoting youth social and economic inclusion and preventing violence. A key finding of the research highlighted how such programmes continue to follow a top-down approach, where youth are either merely viewed as beneficiaries or not meaningfully involved in conceptualising, implementing, evaluating and revising such programmes. A discussion around the value of greater youth inclusion is supplemented with examples of how youth may have been more meaningfully included in South Africa's Community Work Programme (CWP) as well as Kenya's Youth Employment Opportunities Project (KYEOP). The brief concludes with recommendations relevant to youth inclusion in these as well as other socio-economic and livelihood support programmes.
Topic:: Employment, Youth, Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

8764. Robots, Exports and Top Income Inequality: Evidence for the U.S.

Author:: Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, and Pablo Garriga
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The last decades have witnessed a revolution in manufacturing production characterized by increasing technology adoption and a strong expansion of international trade. Simultaneously, the income distribution has exhibited both polarization and concentration among the richest. Combining datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, the International Federation of Robotics, EU KLEMS, and COMTRADE, we study the causal effect of industrial automation on income inequality in the U.S. during 2010–2015. We exploit spatial and time variations in exposure to robots arising from past differences in industry specialization across U.S. metropolitan areas and the evolution of robot adoption across industries. We document a robust positive impact of robotics on income for only the top 1 percent of taxpayers, which is largest for top income fractiles. Therefore, industrial automation fuels income inequality and, particularly, top income inequality. According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers results in relative increments of the total taxable income accruing to fractiles P99 to P99.9, P99.9 to P99.99 and P99.99 to P100, of 2.1 percent, 3.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. We also find that robotization leads to increased exports to high-income and upper-middle-income economies, and that this is one of the key mechanisms behind the surge in top income inequality.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Exports, Automation, and Robotics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8765. Discrimination Against Gay and Transgender People in Latin America: A Correspondence Study in the Rental Housing Market

Author:: Nicolás Abbate, Inés Berniell, Joaquín Coleff, Luis Laguinge, Margarita Machelett, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We assess the extent of discrimination against gay and transgender individuals in the rental housing markets of four Latin American countries. We conducted a large-scale field experiment building on the correspondence study methodology to examine interactions between property managers and fictitious couples engaged in searches in a major online rental housing platform. We find evidence of discriminatory behavior against heterosexual couples where the female partner is a transgender women (trans couples): they receive 19% fewer responses, 27% fewer positive responses, and 23% fewer invitations to showings than heterosexual couples. However, we find no evidence of discrimination against gay male couples. We also assess whether the evidence is consistent with taste-based discrimination or statistical discrimination models by comparing response rates when couples signal a high socioeconomic status (high SES). While we find no significant effect of the signal on call-back rates or the type of response for high-SES heterosexual or gay male couples, trans couples benefit when they signal a high SES. Their call-back, positive-response, and invitation rates increase by 25%, 36% and 29%, respectively. These results suggest the presence of discrimination against trans couples in the Latin American online rental housing market, which seems consistent with statistical discrimination. Moreover, we find no evidence of heterosexual couples being favoured over gay male couples, nor evidence of statistical discrimination for gay male or heterosexual couples.
Topic:: Discrimination, LGBT+, Housing, Rent, and Transgender
Political Geography:: Latin America

8766. The Short-Term Labor Market Impact of Venezuelan Immigration in Peru

Author:: Celia P. Vera and Juan Pablo Jiménez
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Peru is the second-largest recipient of Venezuelans worldwide. We combine newly available data on Venezuelans living in Peru and the Peruvian Household Survey to assess the impact of Venezuelan migration on natives’ wages and employment. The initial regression analysis exploits the variation in supply shifts across education-experience groups over time. It indicates that immigration in Peru had no adverse impact on native wages. However, the paper highlights that in Peru immigrants and natives with similar education and experience are likely to work in different occupations. The subsequent analysis based on occupational clustering confirms the null effect on wages and indicates that a 20% increase in immigrants decreases formal employment by 6%. We do not find evidence for changes in employment composition toward informality so that migration operates through the extensive margin of employment. We report evidence in favor of immigrants being a close substitute to the least productive natives, suggesting that firms substitute native formal labor for low-cost immigrant informal labor.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and Peru

8767. Intergenerational Mobility of Economic Well-being in Latin America

Author:: Guido Neidhöfer, Matias Ciaschi, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We estimate, for the first time, long-run trends in intergenerational economic mobility for a multitude of countries in Latin America going beyond parent-child correlations in educational attainment. We use several indicators of well-being, such as the socio-economic situation of individuals, job stability, homeownership and assets. Unlike estimates based on education, which mostly show increasing social mobility trends, we find that opportunities to achieve a certain level of economic well-being and climb up the social ladder are rather unequally distributed and have not changed much over time in Latin America.
Topic:: Inequality, Economy, Economic Mobility, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Latin America

8768. Does the Minimum Wage Affect Wage Inequality? A Study for the Six Largest Latin American Economies

Author:: Carlo Lombardo, Lucía Ramírez-Leira, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Minimum wage (MW) policies are widespread in the developing world and yet their effects are still unclear. In this paper we explore the effect of national MW policies in Latin America’s six largest economies by exploiting the heterogeneity in the bite of the national minimum wage across local labor markets and over time. We find evidence that the MW has a compression effect on the wage distribution of formal workers. The effect was particularly large during the 2000s, a decade of sustained growth and strong labor markets. In contrast, the effect seems to vanish in the 2010s, a decade of much weaker labor markets. We also find suggestive evidence of a lighthouse effect: the MW seems to have an equalizing effect also on the wage distribution of informal workers.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, Minimum Wage, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

8769. Going Green: Estimating the Potential of Green Jobs in Argentina

Author:: Natalia Porto, Pablo de la Vega, and Manuela Cerimelo
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper aims to identify and characterize the potential of green jobs in Argentina, i.e., those that would benefit from a transition to a green economy, using occupational green potential scores calculated in US O*NET data. We apply the greenness scores to Argentine household survey data and estimate that 25% of workers are in green jobs, i.e., have a high green potential. However, when taking into account the informality dimension, we find that 15% of workers and 12% of wage earners are in formal green jobs. We then analyze the relationship between the greenness scores (with emphasis on the nexus with decent work) and various labor and demographic variables at the individual level. We find that for the full sample of workers the green potential is relatively greater for men, the elderly, those with very high qualifications, those in formal positions, and those in specific sectors such as construction, transportation, mining, and industry. These are the groups that are likely to be the most benefited by the greening of the Argentine economy. When we restrict the sample to wage earners, the green potential score is positively associated with informality.
Topic:: Labor Market, Green Jobs, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

8770. Cumulative climate shocks and migratory flows: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, and Drought
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

8771. A Framework for Assessing Implementation of Economic Inclusion Programmes in Uganda

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: Reducing inequality and inclusive growth are at the top of the global development agenda. The theme of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”. SDG 8 specifi cally addresses inclusive and sustainable growth. The eradication of poverty and attaining middle income status remains Uganda’s main national development goal as laid out in the National Development Plan (NDP III) 2020/21 – 2024/25. Whereas Uganda experienced sustained economic growth during the pre-Covid-19 period, there were indications that poverty was not reducing, and that inequality was increasing. The Covid-19 pandemic and prolonged lock down exacerbated the situation with almost 3% of the people falling into poverty and compounding inequality. As the world and the country builds back, there is need for specifi c focus of those excluded from economic opportunities. Economic Empowerment Programmes (EIPs) are increasingly being used the world over as vehicles for achieving inclusive economic growth. EIPs have been described as ‘a bundle of coordinated multidimensional interventions that support individuals, households and communities in increasing incomes and assets. For Uganda, implementation of the EIP has been aff ected by poor design and implementation as well as corruption that have rendered the EIPs ineff ective. At the same time, performance evaluations of the EIPs undertaken have had limited infl uence on the design of subsequent programmes. In many cases same interventions have been repackaged under diff erent names and touted as new programmes. There is no doubt that improving the plight of the poor and other categories of people excluded from economic opportunities will require eff ective implementation of EIPs. This Framework for Assessing Implementation of EIPs in Uganda is part of eff orts to improve implementation of the EIP. It is motivated by the inadequacy of existing frameworks to cause change in the design and execution of EIPs in Uganda. The framework is rooted in social accountability and builds on previous works of the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) on governance and public expenditure analysis and monitoring. The theory of change for this EIP framework is assess, disseminate, advocate. By assessing the designs and implementation of EIPs and disseminating the fi ndings of the assessment to implementers and benefi ciaries and using the fi ndings for advocacy, then the design and implementation of EIPs will improve and with it the likelihood of achieving programme outcomes and ultimately impact. The framework has six assessment areas namely programme design, effi cacy, quality of M&E, effi ciency, compliance, and risk management. It is guided by the following principles: social accountability, participation, empowerment for engagement, learning and optimisation.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Policy Implementation, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

8772. TOSSD Data for 2020: An overview of key trends in the data in support of sustainable development

Author:: Brian Tomlinson
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Data on total official support for sustainable development (TOSSD) take a recipient perspective, in contrast to official development assistance (ODA) data, which take a donor perspective. The TOSSD metric captures development resource flows that are not included in donors’ reports to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Development Assistance Committee, and are intended to link resource flows to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For 2020, 98 donors reported TOSSD data, an increase of six donors from 2019. Reported net disbursements totaled $291 billion, including $62 billion reported only to TOSSD. The top five sectors in TOSSD reporting, accounting for 65% of net disbursements, were energy, donor administrative costs, in-donor refugee costs, health, and government and civil society. For those disbursements linked to one or more of the SDGs, 61% went to the Health, Poverty Eradication, Climate Change, support for Decent Work and Sustainable Economic Growth, Ending Hunger, and Partnerships SDGs. The gender equality SDG was allocated just 4.5% of total net disbursements. TOSSD data provided a foundation of activity level detail to enable further research on allocations to SDGs. The picture that TOSSD data provide could be more complete if additional donors submitted reports to TOSSD, and if all donors reported on links to SDGs.
Topic:: Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8773. The Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index 2022

Author:: Jo Walker, Matthew Martin, Emma Seery, Nabil Abdo, Anthony Kamande, and Max Lawson
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The 2022 Commitment to Reducing Inequality (CRI) Index is the first detailed analysis published looking at governments’ policies and actions to fight inequality during the first two years of the pandemic. This fourth edition of the CRI Index reviews the spending, tax and labour policies and actions of 161 governments during 2020–2022. COVID-19 has increased inequality worldwide, as the poorest people were hit hardest by both the disease and its profound economic impacts. Yet the CRI 2022 Index shows clearly that most of the world’s governments failed to mitigate this dangerous rise in inequality. Despite the biggest global health emergency in a century, half of low-and lower-middle-income countries saw the share of health spending fall during the pandemic, half of the countries tracked by the CRI Index cut the share of social protection spending, 70% cut the share of education spending, while two-thirds of countries failed to increase their minimum wage in line with gross domestic product (GDP). Ninety-five percent of countries failed to increase taxation of the richest people and corporations. At the same time, a small group of governments from across the world bucked this trend, taking clear actions to combat inequality, putting the rest of the world to shame.
Topic:: GDP, Inequality, Tax Systems, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8774. Lives at Risk: A study of girls dropping out of school in Juba, Rumbek and Pibor Counties, South Sudan

Author:: Lillian Rutandaro, Christine Lundambuyu Minalula, Rogers Otuta, and Manenji Mangundu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This study was undertaken by Oxfam in three South Sudanese counties as part of the SIDA-funded project 'Building Resilience through Gender and Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Education, Skills Development, and Sustainable Livelihoods'. Its purpose was to shed light on why so many girls drop out of school. The research revealed that women and girls often lack decision-making power over their lives. Early or forced marriage, the abduction of girls, perceptions that education delays marriage – and that educated girls risk not finding husbands – all contribute to dropout rates. Additional challenges include a lack of adequate hygiene and sanitation facilities in schools, the distances learners need to travel, insecurity caused by communal violence, floods, food insecurity, and a heavy household work burden. The Government of South Sudan has in place laws and policies to address these issues, but they remain largely on paper and enforcement mechanisms are weak. The report analyses each of these factors in turn and presents recommendations for how the SIDA project can begin to address them in its future programming.
Topic:: Development, Education, Food, Conflict, Resilience, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

8775. Decolonize! What does it mean?

Author:: Sara Duvisac
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This document introduces the key concepts of decolonial theory that inform many current calls to decolonize. It provides examples from Latin America, Africa, and North America of how activists have envisioned or realized decolonial futures. These movements led by Indigenous Peoples, people of color, women, and queer people articulate and define the possibilities of decolonial futures. Since decolonial theory suggests multiple futures and not one single solution, this document does not address what decolonizing particular systems, such as international development, should look like. Rather, the document aims to introduce the reader to the tools of analysis that decolonial theory offers, give examples of decolonial theory in practice, and discuss some potential shortfalls of the decolonial framework.
Topic:: Political Theory, Colonialism, Decolonization, and Diversity
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and North America

8776. Footing the Bill: Fair finance for loss and damage in an era of escalating climate impacts

Author:: Tracy Carty and Lyndsay Walsh
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The world has entered a new and dangerous era of climate change impacts, causing huge loss and damage and driving up inequality in the world’s poorest countries and communities that have contributed least to the climate crisis. New research by Oxfam estimates that funding requirements for UN humanitarian appeals linked to extreme weather are eight times higher than they were 20 years ago, and over the past five years nearly half of appeal requirements have gone unmet. Funding for emergency humanitarian response is piecemeal and painfully inadequate, as is broader support to address loss and damage such as rebuilding homes and vital infrastructure. Scaled-up financial support from governments, corporations and individuals most responsible for causing the climate crisis, and most able to pay, is an immediate necessity. A new finance facility must be created to help ensure that finance to address loss and damage is accessible and sustained, is additional to adaptation, mitigation and ODA commitments, and is delivered in accordance with the principles of climate justice.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8777. Asia’s Extreme Inequality Crisis: Building back fairer after COVID-19

Author:: Matthew Martin
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: COVID-19 has exacerbated Asia’s crisis of extreme inequality. This is undermining growth and preventing poverty eradication. Asian governments have done almost nothing to combat this rise in inequality and are constrained in their policy choices as debt burdens grow and post-COVID austerity begins. A few Asian governments have done a lot to fight inequality during COVID-19 through equitable public services, progressive taxation and enhanced labour rights, especially for women, but most have not. This paper lays out a comprehensive set of measures that Asian governments, the Asian Development Bank and the international community could use to significantly reduce inequality, eradicate poverty and accelerate growth in Asia.
Topic:: Poverty, Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, Banking, and Equality
Political Geography:: Asia

8778. Climate Finance in West Africa: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s regions worst hit by the climate crisis

Author:: Norman Martin Casas and Azara Remalia Sanogo
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In West Africa/Sahel, countries and their communities are experiencing the worst impacts of the climate crisis. Elsewhere, Paris Agreement climate finance commitments are set to prioritise the countries that are most impacted by climate change. However, new research by Oxfam shows that, despite West Africa/Sahel being one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, the international climate finance received falls far short of meeting national climate finance needs and is being significantly over-reported in favour of debt instruments. Adaptation finance is also insufficient. Reported climate finance does not place gender equality at the centre, and only a small part directly reaches local actors. In light of this, developed countries and other donors should scale up grant-based adaptation finance that reaches the local level and responds to the real needs of particularly hard-hit regions such as West Africa/Sahel.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Sahel

8779. Unaccountable Accounting: The World Bank’s unreliable climate finance reporting

Author:: Jason Farr, James Morrissey, and Christian Donaldson
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Despite being the largest multilateral provider of climate finance, the World Bank supplies very little evidence to support its claims about the amount of climate finance it provides. Oxfam has attempted to recreate the Bank’s reported climate finance figures using public information for projects in the Bank’s FY2020. Oxfam found that the Bank’s current climate finance reporting processes are such that its claimed levels of climate finance cannot be independently verified and could be off by as much as $7bn, or 40%. Without better disclosure practices, the World Bank is asking us to take much on faith. Climate finance funding is too important for us to do that. The World Bank must be more transparent in its reporting so that it can be held to account.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, World Bank, Climate Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8780. Seeking Safety: Roma Refugees in Moldova – Challenges and humanitarian needs

Author:: Charlotte Greener and Emly de Andrade Costa
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has displaced millions of people to neighbouring countries – but some groups who already face poverty and discrimination in society, including Roma people, are facing particular challenges accessing the safety they need. This paper outlines the results of Oxfam’s rapid assessment of Roma refugees in Moldova in July 2022, highlighting the challenges that Roma refugees face when trying to access assistance, and some key humanitarian needs of these refugees. It aims to help amplify the voice of Roma refugees and to inform a humanitarian response – from the Moldovan government, United Nations (UN) agencies, and non-government organizations (NGOs) – that is more inclusive of Roma refugees, and more responsive to their particular needs.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Moldova

8781. Climate finance in Asia: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s most climate vulnerable regions

Author:: Christopher Roy
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate hazards including extreme temperatures, flooding, droughts, cyclones, and sea level rise. The most vulnerable communities need financial support to help adapt to the climate crisis – they cannot do so alone. Developed countries have promised $100 bn in climate finance to developing countries every year until 2025. This promise has not been met. Asian countries have outlined the support they require and delivering on these needs is integral to bringing climate justice to those most vulnerable to – yet least responsible for – the climate crisis. We find that the climate finance provided to Asia is woefully inadequate to support the necessary adaptation actions and vulnerable communities are suffering as a result.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Finance, and Climate Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

8782. The Assault of Austerity: How prevailing economic policy choices are a form of gender-based violence

Author:: Dana Abed and Fatimah Kelleher
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This briefing paper argues that austerity measures are a form of gender-based violence against women, girls and non-binary people, and lays out clear examples of how fiscal consolidation affects them. Its core argument is that ending austerity must be a priority. The policies that deliver austerity’s deadly consequences can no longer be marketed as the ‘logical’ and ‘inevitable’ economic options that they have been for decades, and certainly not by any government that claims a commitment to gender equality or ending gender-based violence. Austerity takes away from those who need it most, while ignoring common-sense ways to improve both revenue and prosperity. The paper goes on to share feminist economic alternatives offer pathways that can protect the Majority World from completely avoidable suffering.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Based Violence, Identity, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8783. A Revitalized NATO and Its "New Strategic Concept" Amin Global and Regional Changes

Author:: E. Fuat Keyman
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the postCovid period and the United Nations Climate Change Conference declared a “code red” emergency for the climate crisis at COP 27, a strategically calculated move came from Russian President Vladimir Putin to unlawfully invade Ukraine. From the beginning, the invasion of Ukraine has generated impacts much larger and more transformative than any previous crisis, triggering serious crisis-ridden developments in the international system and globalization and forcing national governments and global actors to recalibrate and reposition. It is in this global and broader context NATO’s Madrid Summit and its “new Strategic Concept” should be analyzed and assessed. This paper argues that the summit is historic, necessary, but not sufficient. To substantiate this argument, it analyzes is NATO’s new strategic concept in detail, exploring its critical importance, its transformative effect and the six challenges that it faces.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8784. NATO's Changing Priorities

Author:: Ahmet O Evin
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of the Western alliance and brought the transatlantic partners closer to one another. As a result, NATO, which has undergone several changes since the end of the Cold War, has regained its key role as the cornerstone of the West’s collective security interests. In its enhanced position, NATO also appears to be emerging as the champion of the liberal order as well as the universal values embraced by transatlantic partners. Yet, it may also be facing new challenges both from within, particularly in the case of a prolonged conflict in Europe, and from China, which is demonstrating increasing rivalry to the West.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8785. Geopolitical Consequences of the War in Ukraine

Author:: John Rennie Short
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The Russian invasion of Ukraine signals a new world order that has developed from the bipolar world of 1945 to 1991 and the brief unipolar interlude from 1991 to 2008. This new world order is dominated by a relatively declining U.S. and an emerging Sino-Russo anti American alliance, a renewed sense of the West as a counter to authoritarian regimes and reversal of the globalization trends of the past thirty years. We are moving into a deglobalizing, multipolar world.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8786. Future Uncertain: NATO in a Post-Quantum Post-AI World

Author:: James Sperling
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The emerging and disruptive technologies of the 21st century—artificial intelligence and quantum technologies—confront NATO with a paradox: the integration of those technologies into national armed forces will significantly narrow and possibly invert the systemic technology dominance NATO has enjoyed since 1945 and widen the technology gap within the Alliance with potentially debilitating consequences for operational effectives and allied cohesion. The precise impact of these disruptive technologies must remain largely speculative, but it is certain that they will change the nature of war-fighting, exacerbate the security dilemma, and precipitate in a recalibration of the global balance of power.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8787. Russia's Assault on Ukraine: Fallout From the War

Author:: Dina R. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The war between Russia and Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, has now gone on for more than four months. It has already taken a severe toll on much of the world and will cause much more harm the longer it continues. Moreover, it does not seem likely to end soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently declared that Russia has barely begun its military operation in Ukraine. He has clearly stated his goal of taking the entire Donbas. Success in that endeavor may motivate him to continue the fight for other objectives, including the major industrial center of Kharkiv, the key Black Sea port of Odesa, and perhaps even Kyiv and its environs. For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said his goal is to push Russia back to the line it occupied on 23 February. His Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba has spoken of winning back the entire Donbas and liberating “the rest of our territory.” The U.S. Director of National Intelligence has predicted that a “grinding struggle” may continue for a long time. This article will explore some of the consequences of the war already in evidence
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8788. Geopolitics, Geography an the Ukrainian Russian War

Author:: Serdar Ş. Güner
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The trigger of the Ukraine-Russia war is the enlargement of NATO, essentially a Western exploitation of Russian weakness emanating from Soviet Union’s dissolution. Russia has communicated her reactions to the enlargement peacefully until the prospect of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. The second wave of enlargement coming from the direction of neutral states such Finland and Sweden originates from Finnish and Swedish fears of being the next targets of Russian military campaigns. NATO enlargement to Ukraine has caused Russia-Ukraine war that in turn has caused some neutral states to leave their neutrality and become NATO members. Therefore, NATO expansion efforts has led to a further expansion through war. However, the exclusion of and warring with Russia only obliterates the opportunity to form a large alliance to balance China. The West should understand that it is not wise to create incentives for the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Conflict, Geography, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8789. The Historical Roots of NATO Engagement in the Mediterranean

Author:: Matteo Gerlini
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The new strategic concept of the alliance looks at the Mediterranean situation as a shift in the engagement with a history that is as old as the origins of the Western bloc. In this history, the Italian role has been an example for the other Mediterranean countries that later joined NATO. The steps in the construction of the Atlantic coalition started also in Mediterranean with U.S. military engagement grounded in Truman’s doctrine. Twenty years late, the North Atlantic Council’s report on the alliance’s future tasks examined crucial “exposed areas” for NATO, and first among them was the Mediterranean. After the collapse of the Soviet system, NATO worked on a relationship of coexistence and cooperation with Russia. The ongoing invasion in Ukraine has thwarted years of discussion and work, but the partnerships promoted by NATO with the countries of the so-called enlarged Mediterranean stand as a success story.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

8790. The Future of Women, Peace, and Security at NATO

Author:: Diana Morais, Samantha Turner, and Katharine A.M. Wright
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In a ground-breaking move, Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) features prominently in NATO’s Strategic Concept for the first time, a powerful signal that it will form a central part of NATO’s changing priorities going forward. At the same time, there have been significant gendered silences in NATO and its allies’ response to the Russia-Ukraine War, undermining these policy aspirations. This is despite over a decade of significant investment in the WPS architecture across NATO’s political and military structures, including the creation of a high-level Special Representative on Women, Peace, and Security, reporting directly to the Secretary General and supporting a comprehensive WPS policy adopted in conjunction with NATO partners. Focus therefore needs to be given to what NATO can do to operationalize the WPS aspirations of the new Strategic Concept in practice.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8791. A Compass and a Concept: A Guide to the EU and NATO Strategic Outlooks

Author:: Ricardo Borges de Castro and Rita Barbosa Lobo
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine launched on 24 February 2022 upended Europe’s security order. The invasion was a wake-up call that peace in the continent should not be taken for granted and a catalyst for change at European and transatlantic level. The EU adopted a long-term Strategic Compass for security and defense. NATO, no longer “braindead,” issued a new Strategic Concept for the coming decade and is expanding. While there is convergence in strategic outlooks, questions remain on how both organizations will cooperate and coordinate their actions, implement the investment, troops and capabilities’ goals set in each document as well as deal with countries such as China.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8792. NATO After Madrid: Preparing for an Age of Confrontation and Disruption

Author:: Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022 was potentially transformative. Allied leaders agreed to a fundamental shift in NATO’s deterrence and defense posture and to continue the fight against terrorism. They committed to long-term support for Ukraine, they invited Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance, and they unveiled a new NATO Strategic Concept. Alliance members must now translate words into deeds. They must move from deterrence by reinforcement to deterrence by denial. They must bolster their resilience to disruptive forces. They need to offer Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other partners what they need to defend themselves. They must address the China challenge. And they must rebalance transatlantic defense burdens by boosting European capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8793. NATO: The Importance of Activism in the Mediterranean Scenario

Author:: Lorenzo Somigli
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The secure defense of NATO members does not depend on the Kyiv frontline; the southern flank is the most unguarded. This paper deals with the Mediterranean, a closed sea without borders which globalized before globalization, examining some strategic alternatives for Western allies. The Mediterranean is a point of contact, a diaphragm, and a battlefield. In addition, the central Mediterranean is a relevant area where Russia and China have their foot in the door because of the disengagement of France and Italy and the lack of attention of NATO. It is precisely on this weaker frontier that NATO must relaunch its commitment and presence. Defending marine spaces determines the continent’s safety. So, losing the Mediterranean can be disastrous. And finally, it examines Italian policy in the Mediterranean to date and the reasons why Italy can and must correct the strabismus of the USA, which is completely looking at the Indo-Pacific, and of imagines a peripheral Europe without politics.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Activism
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

8794. Change an Continuity in NATO's Nuclear Priorities

Author:: Spenser A. Warren
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: NATO’s new Strategic Concept highlights areas of change and continuity in nuclear priorities. These priorities will be driven by a combination of global and domestic political factors. In this article, I argue that the continued threat posed by Russia, the growth of the anti-nuclear movement in Europe, the rise of China, and the emergence of new nuclear technologies will drive NATO nuclear priorities for the foreseeable future. Russian aggression drives continuity in NATO nuclear priorities, as Russia has been, and will remain, the primary threat to NATO security. Meanwhile, the other factors will combine to force changes to NATO nuclear priorities and policies.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

8795. Monitoring the Inclusiveness of Ghana’s Planting for Food and Jobs Program in the Bosome Freho and Saboba Districts

Author:: William Quarmine
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: In line with CDD-Ghana’s Promoting Fiscal Justice for Socio-Economic Transformation (PFJSET) project objectives, a pilot study was conducted in August 2018 to assess the implementation of the government’s Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) program. The primary focus of the assessment centered on the extent to which the PFJ program implementation includes vulnerable farmers in the distribution of program resources. Two study sites in the Bosome Freho and Saboba districts in the Ashanti and Northern regions respectively were selected for the study. Data for this study was derived from key informant interviews of program implementers, and from selected beneficiary and non-beneficiary farmers using a semi-structured questionnaire. The findings from this study were validated through two district level workshops – one in each of the sampled districts as well as other engagements with key stakeholders, such as officials of the PFJ Secretariat at the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), some development partners and civil society groups. This report incorporates new information, clarification and inputs made during these validation meetings.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Food Security, Inclusion, and Farmers
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

8796. Lecture: The Evolution of the Civic Space in Modern African Democracy

Author:: Idayat Hassan and Kwame Karikari
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: Over the last decade, the world has witnessed a decline in democracy and the closing of civic spaces – the bedrock of democratic society through which citizens and civil society organizations are able to organize, participate and communicate without hindrance. These two phenomena have dominated conversations on various platforms globally and have intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Democratic backsliding and shrinking civic space in our part of the world represent a major setback for the region and its people. This lecture seeks to deliberate on these evolving issues and offer practical recommendations aimed at influencing urgent interventions that will help halt democratic backsliding and the closing of democratic civic spaces.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Democracy, COVID-19, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

8797. Violent Extremist and Terrorist Threats: Examining Ghana’s Preparedness

Author:: Mawusi Yaw Dumenu
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The growing spate of violent extremism and terrorism in the sub-region spells doom for the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 16 which focuses on Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. Ghana is now the only country among the earlier mentioned coastal states that has not suffered from any violent extremist and terrorist violence. This notwithstanding, there have been several alarming incidents involving extremist attacks that have occurred in close proximity to Ghana’s borders.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

8798. Taiwan’s Local Elections: Defeat of the Ruling DPP Amidst Negative Campaigns

Author:: Kai-Ping Huang
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Taiwan held “nine-in-one” local elections on November 26, 2022, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) lost many seats amidst negative campaigns, while the KMT emerged as the winner of the election. However, Kai-Ping Huang, an Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, evaluates the biggest losers are voters who were not offered quality campaigns. Professor Huang defines the campaign’s major issues as Scandals of Plagiarism, Poor Quality of Infrastructure, Discredited Pandemic Control Performance and Economic Difficulties and Anti-China Campaign Backlash. In addition, she states that it is too early to say whether the KMT will have an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. The KMT must clarify its position on national identity. The Taipei voters don`t appreciate what the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has done to the capital, and most voters do not believe that the TPP is a credible alternative to the two mainstream parties. Therefore, TPP needs to coordinate with the KMT to defeat the ruling DPP can be an option.
Topic:: Education, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

8799. Sustaining Democratic Unity for Ukraine’s Victory and South Korea’s Roles in This

Author:: Yang Gyu Kim
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: The war situation regarding Russia and Ukraine seems to be changing, as Kherson has recently returned to Ukraine. Yang Gyu Kim, a principal researcher at the East Asia Institute, considers the Russia-Ukraine war a “war of value,” and stresses that Ukraine’s victory is highly important, since it involves the restoration of global governance and has strategic implications in various regions around the world. Considering the post-war measures, Kim argues that the most contentious issue to be addressed is the genocide committed by Russian troops toward Ukraine civilians. While various reports confirm the allegations of genocide, he explains establishing its allegations and filing the case to the International Court of Justice remain challenging. Finally, Kim suggests three things that the Korean government can consider to help Ukraine: closely cooperating with the United States and Japan to sanction Russia, providing further humanitarian aid to Kyiv, and supporting Ukraine to win the legal fight in proving the war crimes as genocide.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, Democracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Asia, and South Korea

8800. Russia’s Partial Mobilization: Issues Pertaining Russian Migrants in Mongolia

Author:: Ariunbayar Bazarvaani
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: The Kremlin recently announced a partial mobilization decree amid the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine. Along with the partial mobilization decree, the Kremlin also amended the Criminal Code that stipulates severe punishment for voluntary surrender and people who deserted from military service. While the Mongolian government holds an abstemious position towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Ariunbayar Bazarvaani, CEO of The Academy of Political Education, states that the non-governmental organizations in Mongolia are keeping an eye on the Russian migrants who had fled from Russia to evade mobilization. He also introduces a survey addressing Russian refugees` challenges and urges the Mongolian government to consider these issues and approach the crisis with an awareness of democracy, human rights, and freedom. Specifically, he argues that the Mongolian government should actively involve Mongolian NGOs to offer a favorable environment, including employment, and thus be recognized as a country that endorses democracy and human rights.
Topic:: Democracy, Migrants, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Mongolia, and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS