Publication Year: within 3 Years - CIAO Search Results

8401. The Tenth NPT Review Conference: In the Shadow of Russian Aggression in Ukraine

Author:: Shimon Stein and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The 10th Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in New York, against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in itself a gross violation of the treaty; Putin’s threat to resort to nuclear weapons; the deadlock in negotiations with Iran; and more. In these difficult circumstances, the participants will hopefully be able at the very least to issue a joint statement affirming the norms underlying the NPT
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8402. Stateliness, IDF style

Author:: Meir Elran and Asa Kasher
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The Spirt of the IDF,” the IDF ethical code formulated twenty years ago, was updated recently with a new fundamental value: “stateliness” (mamlachtiyut, in Hebrew). What did Chief of Staff Kochavi intend with his addition of the term, and how can this value be best instilled among IDF soldiers and the general public?
Topic:: Military Strategy, Ethics, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8403. China below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology

Author:: Assaf Orion and Shira Efron
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The statements issued by President Biden during his visit to the Middle East include little mention of China. However, close reading reveals that between the lines, China is quite present in the agreements reached by the President and Israel and Saudi Arabia. The dialogue on technology cooperation announced by Jerusalem and Washington, which is related directly to the Great Power competition, signals a new stage in partnership between the countries: Israel alongside the United States, even if not against China
Topic:: Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8404. The Iranian-Russian-Turkish Summit in Tehran

Author:: Raz Zimmt, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, and Arkady Mil-Man
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The three-way summit between Presidents Raisi, Putin, and Erdogan intended to present a unified front against the Western axis, which imposes various levels of sanctions on the three states. But despite the cordial photos and warm handshakes, there are serious disputes between Tehran, Moscow, and Ankara. They are rivals no less than they are partners, and it is doubtful whether their meeting will lead to any substantive gains
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

8405. Cyber Challenges and Foreign Influence in the Upcoming Knesset Elections

Author:: David Siman-Tov, Tamir Hayman, and Amos Hervitz
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In advance of the forthcoming Knesset elections, there are heightened efforts to obstruct foreign interference. Yet while most preventive activity focuses on technological attacks on the voting process and information systems relevant to the campaign, the efforts to grapple with malign influence on internal political discourse through the spread of fake news, verbal incitement, and more are insufficient. What should Israel do to confront the threat in the most effective fashion?
Topic:: Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8406. Tehran Heightens the Pressure as it Strives to Thwart a Regional Air Defense System

Author:: Tamir Hayman and Sima Shine
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The heightened discussion of a “regional air defense alliance” was met by increased Iranian activity to block any such measure, including explicit threats that in turn prompted rejection of the idea by senior Gulf figures. It appears that at this stage, relations between Israel and the Gulf states that remain below the radar are preferable to grandiose public statements that do match the reality on the ground
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, Air Force, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

8407. Resolving the Gas Dispute with Lebanon: First Exhaust Diplomatic Efforts

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Hezbollah’s launch of UAVs at the Karish gas field was a cognitive action directed at Israel and the Lebanese, and sparked much public criticism in the Lebanese political establishment, which is eager to reach an arrangement on the gas issue. At this stage, Israel is right not to react to the UAVs militarily, and should continue to try to exhaust the diplomatic route with its northern neighbor to demarcate the maritime border, while recognizing that the Shiite organization will attempt again to challenge the balance of deterrence
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

8408. Transportation and National Security

Author:: Yossi Daskal
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Congestion on the roads, traffic accidents, and rising levels of air pollution – transportation affects the health, economy, and well-being of the residents of Israeli Therefore, discussions of national security must include deliberations on improving transportation in Israel
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Public Policy, and Transportation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8409. Five Good Years for the Campaign between Wars in Syria: What Comes Next?

Author:: Carmit Velensi and Eden Kaduri
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israeli Air Force jets, according to foreign sources, have struck targets in Syria for over five years, in order to reduce Iran’s entrenchment in the theater. Despite their impressive achievements, these attacks are not enough to curtail the threat from the northern border to any significant degree. Israel would do well to formulate a new strategy vis-à-vis Syria, tailored to the changing reality – and the sooner this begins, the better
Topic:: Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

8410. Hezbollah Challenges Israel: Time to Rethink the Policy of Restraint

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israel is deterred, and as long as it does not respond to Hezbollah’s launch of UAVS at the drilling rig in the Karish gas field, Nasrallah, backed by Iran, will continue to test the limits of Israel’s restraint. Sometimes it is necessary to play different, surprising cards in order to return to previous rules of the game. Therefore, Israel should respond in the air campaign and attack the Hezbollah-operated air defense systems in Lebanon, even at the risk of escalation, which at the present time is likely to be limited
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Violence, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8411. An Israeli National Guard?

Author:: Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The establishment of the Israeli Guard was announced recently, based on lessons learned from the May 2021 clashes between Arab and Jewish Israelis. Comprising police officers and volunteers, the new body’s main purpose will be to provide the Border Police with much-needed reinforcement. This is an essential, welcome measure, no less important than the quantitative and qualitative additions to the regular police. Yet no less essential is the establishment of a genuine National Guard, which will be able to provide effective assistance in all emergency situations and mass disasters
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8412. President Biden's Visit to the Middle East: Recommendations for Israel

Author:: Tamir Hayman and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: President Biden’s forthcoming trip to Israel, intended to emphasize the US commitment to Israel’s security, brings with it a golden opportunity for Jerusalem on issues such as Iran, the campaign between wars, and Saudi Arabia – also on the Biden itinerary, where the President will attempt to achieve immediate economic gains
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

8413. Macron Put Down, France in Crisis: Implications for Israel

Author:: Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: As a result of the recent elections in France, President Macron no longer enjoys a majority in parliament, and it remains unclear how he will be able to continue to lead his country. This unusual situation points to a severe political crisis that will require the various actors to adopt or devise new political methods. Beyond the internal significance for France, what are the implications for Israel?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Leadership, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France

8414. The Race to Electric Vehicles: Technology, US-China Rivalry, and Big Money

Author:: Ariel Sobelman
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In recent years Israel has become a leading player in auto tech, and China is interested in Israeli developments in a field that is expected to assume a significant role in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Therefore, it is important for Israel to define a national strategy on the issue, in order to avoid unnecessary involvement in the inter-bloc clash
Topic:: Green Technology, Innovation, Rivalry, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8415. Hezbollah’s Political Challenges following the Elections in Lebanon

Author:: Orna Mizrahi
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the Hezbollah camp was weakened in last month’s Lebanese parliamentary elections, the opposition is weak and divided. Meantime, Hezbollah maintains its status and influence, seeking to play a significant role in the next government. Nasrallah, determined to retain the organization’s independent military power, continues to try to strengthen Hezbollah’s image as a responsible national actor whose main concern is to ease Lebanon’s plight – and defend Lebanon against Israel
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Elections, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

8416. The Iranian Nuclear Program Advances, with only a Slim Chance of Restoring Nuclear Agreement

Author:: Sima Shine and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the nuclear talks in Vienna were renewed over a year ago, a return to the deal is not on the horizon, and the regime of the ayatollahs has increased the pace of its violations of the deal, which will make it even harder for the parties to reach understandings. The coming weeks will be critical, and at this point the world powers, as well as Israel, must prepare for a reality where there is no agreement, accompanied by troubling Iranian progress on its nuclear program
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

8417. Improving the Palestinian Authority’s Fiscal Outlook

Author:: Haggy Erkes and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent reports by the IMF and the World Bank emphasized the dismal fiscal situation of the Palestinian Authority, and recommended boosting foreign aid and implementing structural spending reforms. This article proposes an additional policy: a tax on work permits for Palestinians working in the Israeli econony. This measure stands to reduce the Palestinian deficit by one third, and offset some of the adverse effects of employment in Israel.
Topic:: Economics, Leadership, Fiscal Policy, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8418. Between Erdogan, Mitsotakis, and Biden: The Evolving Ankara-Athens-Washington Triangle

Author:: Gallia Lindenstrauss, Christoph Becker, and Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The Prime Minister of Greece no longer exists for me,” declared Turkey’s President, reflecting a break in the rapprochement seen over the past year between Ankara and Athens. What lies behind this change of approach, and how does this affect Israel’s relations with Eastern Mediterranean states?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean

8419. The Gulf States and the Palestinian Authority: On the Brink of Change?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Kobi Michael
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Palestinian Authority leadership seeks to ease the tensions between the PA and the UAE and Bahrain – tensions that escalated after the Abraham Accords were signed. Should Israel be concerned about the expected rapprochement, or should it rather try to take advantage of the opportunities that might ensue?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gulf Nations

8420. The Unavoidable Campaign to Destroy the Jenin Terrorist Hub

Author:: Kobi Michael and Ori Wertman
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the current wave of terror, the IDF has focused its efforts specifically on the old-new terror capital of Jenin, which, while having had some success in thwarting attacks, has not eradicated the extensive terrorist system in the city and has contributed to the erosion of Israeli deterrence. Is it time to reconsider the course?
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8421. Growing Disagreements between President Raisi and his Conservative Rivals

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Lacking knowledge and experience”: recent weeks have seen growing criticism of Iranian President Raisi, primarily regarding his failure to deal with the country’s severe economic crisis. Political criticism is neither new nor rare in the Islamic Republic, but it is now emerging from within Raisi’s conservative camp, less than a year after his government was formed
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

8422. US Relations with Arab Gulf States: A Passing Crisis?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After US–Saudi relations deteriorated when Biden entered the White House, relations between the two countries have recently improved, with reports of a possible visit by the US president to Riyadh. What are the reasons for the rapprochement trend, and how can it affect Israel?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

8423. The Cognitive War between Israel and Hamas: Implications and Recommendations

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer and David Siman-Tov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Hamas has been working for the past year, and more specifically in the current wave of terrorism, to present itself as a powerful organization that succeeds in defeating Israel – even when things do not correspond to the situation on the ground. Israel repeatedly falls into the pit that Hamas has dug, failing to reflect the relations of the military forces before both the Palestinian and Israeli public. How can we win the game of cognition?
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8424. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations

Author:: Morr Link
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

8425. High-Power Laser Applications on the Future Battlefield

Author:: Yehoshua Kalisky
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Within a year we will operate a laser interception system” – Thus the Prime Minister Bennett declared at the yearly conference of the INSS. What are the differences between the various laser systems and what are the advantages and disadvantages of these types of air defense systems?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8426. Undocumented Palestinian workers in Israel: Did the Israeli COVID-19 Policy Boost their Employment?

Author:: Haggy Etkes and Wifag Adnan
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Three of the terrorist attacks that occurred in recent weeks in Israel were carried out by undocumented workers – a phenomenon that has grown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. How did the pandemic lead to a rise in the number of undocumented workers and how can the phenomenon be reduced?
Topic:: Labor Issues, Pandemic, COVID-19, Migrant Workers, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8427. Demonstrations in Iran in Protest of the Sharp Rise in Prices of Basic Goods

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: At least three people were killed and dozens were injured and arrested in protests that erupted in southwestern Iran due to a controversial move by the government in Tehran. Until now, the scope of the protest is very limited and does not threaten the regime’s stability, but it is additional evidence of the severe economic crisis, which can be added to the long list of challenges facing President Raisi
Topic:: Economics, Protests, Demonstrations, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

8428. Iraq-Gulf Relations: An Anchor for Stability and Restraining Iranian Involvement in the Region?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Yaron Schneider
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: While weathering a political crisis, Iraq is now at a crossroads regarding the future of the state. In tandem, neighboring Sunni states, led by Saudi Arabia, are moving closer to Baghdad. What are the reasons for this development, and how is it likely to affect the Middle East, Iran’s expansion in the area, and Israel?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Economic Stability, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

8429. The Struggle for De Facto Sovereignty over the Temple Mount

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: 19 Israelis were murdered in the terrorist attacks that occurred around the month of Ramadan, and once again al-Aqsa and the Temple Mount were the cause inciting the terrorists. Israel has yet to internalize that a campaign is underway for sovereignty over al-Aqsa. How should Israel act in advance of what are expected to be highly charged weeks ahead?
Topic:: Religion, Sovereignty, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

8430. The Upcoming Elections in Lebanon: Dubious Possibilities for Change

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Orit Perlov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: For the first time since the public protests and collapse of the economy, Lebanon will hold elections for its 128 parliamentary seats. Yet despite the desire for change in the political system and the concerns of Hezbollah and its allies as to their standing, it is doubtful whether the elections will lead to significant change in the Land of the Cedars
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

8431. One Month after the Start of the Escalation: The Fog Dissipates

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The escalation that began even before Ramadan has exacted a painful toll in Israel, and Hamas has indeed earned some achievements and improved its status. However, thus far events have not led to the organization’s desired outcome: mass demonstrations on several fronts, with the participation of Arabs from Israel, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Does Israel recognize the new challenges that Hamas attempts to pose? And what can be done now so that next year, when once again Passover and Ramadan coincide, this escalation does not recur?
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hamas, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8432. The War in Ukraine: More Western Aid and Fear of Escalation

Author:: Eldad Shavit and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The United States and other NATO countries have thus far not deviated from their policy regarding the war in Eastern Europe – military and economic assistance, with no boots on the ground. Yet the more the war continues, and while there is a chance of significant escalation, does this policy stand to change?
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8433. The Gulf Countries and Turkey: (Re-)Drawing the Map of Alliances in the Middle East

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After a decade of hostility, and against the background of Turkey’s weak economic situation and Iran’s expanded regional presence, there is a significant improvement in the relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. What opportunities might this change bring for the region, and how might this affect Israel’s relations with Turkey and with the Gulf countries?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

8434. The Russia-Ukraine War: Where Do We Go from Here?

Author:: Zvi Magen and Sophie Kobzantsev
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Two months after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the goal of a short campaign has clearly not been achieved. Russia now seeks to achieve gains while suspending the negotiations with Kyiv – both to improve its position in advance of future negotiations, and to deliver the message to the West that “you cannot stop us.”
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8435. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8436. Seven Years Later: Is the War in Yemen Nearly Over?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Inbal Nissim-Louvton
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After seven years of war in Yemen and more than 400,000 people killed, there are signs of dramatic developments that might lead to a turning point, with important implications for the region – and for Israel
Topic:: Security, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

8437. Stalemate in Talks with Iran on a Return to the Nuclear Agreement

Author:: Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

8438. Investigation of Russia's Crimes in Ukraine: A Turning Point for the International Criminal Court?

Author:: Ori Beeri and Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Chief Prosecutor at The Hague has already begun to investigate actions taken by Russia in the Ukrainian arena, while accelerating judicial proceedings and bureaucracy. This reflects a change of approach, which includes the prioritization of recent events, as part of an effort to strengthen the status of the Court. How will this affect the investigation of the war in Eastern Europe – and the investigation concerning Israel?
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, International Crime, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

8439. A Multi-Front Terror Campaign: How Should Israel Respond?

Author:: Kobi Michael and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: There is a tendency to see the recent terror attacks in Israel as a new wave of terror, destined, like any wave, to ebb following its limited duration. Alternatively, recent events might challenge this paradigm and reflect a multi-theater campaign led by Hamas, in cooperation with Islamic Jihad and with Iranian support. How should Israel act in face of the current situation?
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8440. Walking a Fine Line: Turkey’s Mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and Relations with the West

Author:: Remi Daniel and Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Turkey’s reaction to the Russian aggression in Ukraine was among the more moderate responses heard from NATO members. With an eye to the post-war situation, Ankara is trying to walk a tightrope and not overly provoke either side. What lies behind this Turkish policy, and is it viable?
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine

8441. The Ukrainian Civil Front – An Interim Assessment

Author:: Meir Elran, Uri Bar-Yosef, and Zvi Magen
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Most of Ukraine’s civilian population demonstrates a high degree of steadfastness during the war, rallying around the flag – and around the president. Nonetheless, the challenge to Ukrainian national resilience remains high, given the huge waves of migration, the losses in the hinterland, and the severe damage to national infrastructure and the local economy – which could have decisive effects on Ukraine’s ability to recover from the war
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8442. Nonetheless, We Need to Maneuver

Author:: Gal Perl Finkel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Defeat the enemy, defeat it quickly, in such a way that at the end of the day no one will ask who won and who lost.” These words of the former chief of staff continue to resonate today, and when voices emerge, arguing that the ground option should be a last resort, it is important to emphasize – only a combination of firepower, a defense system, and smart ground maneuvering can achieve a clear victory, one that we have not seen in a long time ago
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8443. After the Russian “Ruse,” China Looks for New Friends

Author:: Galia Lavi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it would seem that Beijing and Moscow should be a united front against the West. But in actuality, China has been surprised by the scale of the Russian aggression and is now rethinking its position in the geopolitical arena. How will this affect the Middle East?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

8444. With Ramadan Approaching, the Fear of Escalation

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The recent terrorist attacks are a tangible illustration of the growing concern in the security establishment and among the public of possible escalation approaching and during Ramadan. Israel has a few possible ways to act to lower the flames, including political and security moves that can be taken by virtue of improved ties with states in the region
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, ISIS, Conflict, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8445. MF Dollars for Dictators? The Allocation of SDR to Moderate and Isolated Countries

Author:: Haggy Etkes
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The International Monetary Fund assisted radical regimes, including the Russian government and the Taliban in Afghanistan”: This claim was made given the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF to states in the region. Is there truth to this charge?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East

8446. The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: The Palestinians and the Crisis in Ukraine

Author:: Noa Shusterman
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Palestinians – unlike most of the world – have remained silent and not demonstrated any solidarity with the Ukrainian people. What lies behind this posture, and how might the focus on the war in Eastern Europe influence the Palestinian issue?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Palestinian Authority, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

8447. Intelligence and the War in Ukraine: The Limited Power of Public Disclosure

Author:: Ofek Reimer
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West began to disclose intelligence material on Putin’s plans – thereby using a policy tool that brings with it both advantages and risks. What did the intelligence disclosures achieve, and what might Israel learn from this experience?
Topic:: Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8448. Will Russia Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Author:: Helit Barel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: One month into the war in Ukraine, the nuclear threat remains. Will Russia’s President decide to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield, and thereby shatter the 77 years of nuclear deterrence? From a rational perspective, there is little likelihood of this occurring, but thus far Putin has not succeeded in realizing his goals in the Ukrainian theater – and Russia has a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8449. The United States and the Ukrainian Crisis: Implications for the Internal Arena and the Great Power Competition

Author:: Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: With the crisis in Eastern Europe continuing, Washington is maintaining a steady policy: military assistance to Ukraine and economic isolation of Russia, without “boots on the ground.” How is this policy perceived in the United States, particularly in advance of the midterm elections this coming November? How does the war influence the administration’s priorities that were outlined at the outset of its tenure?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8450. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East

8451. Underreporting of Russian Investments Abroad: Are the Sanctions Undermined?

Author:: Haggy Etkes
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: There are indications of underreporting to Western authorities of Russian investments worth about 90 billion dollars, when Russian reports of investments abroad are compared with Western data. If correct, this undermines the effectiveness of the asset freezing that is part of the sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Sanctions, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

8452. The War in Ukraine: The Challenge of Shaping an Endgame

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although nearly three weeks have passed since Putin invaded Ukraine, there is no framework for an endgame on the horizon. While the United States and the West would like to bring Putin to his knees as he sinks deeper in the Ukrainian mud, Washington must recognize that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8453. The Second Republic of Iran: Is Iran Moving toward a Constitutional Change?

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: An initiative to replace the presidential system with a parliamentary system is once again on the agenda of the Islamic Republic, and this time enjoys support among conservatives as well as in the reformist-pragmatic camp – all for their respective reasons. Is there any viable possibility of this constitutional change in Iran?
Topic:: Governance, Constitution, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

8454. Is Ukraine Poised to Join NATO and the European Union?

Author:: Oden Eran and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are more and more voices in the West calling for Kiev’s acceptance into NATO and the European Union. However, this is not the time for rapid measures. Now that Putin has backed himself int a corner, the United States and Europe, in parallel with the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia and the assistance to Ukraine, must leave Moscow a way out
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and North America

8455. Putin’s Dilemma

Author:: Ofer Shelah
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After more than two weeks of war in Ukraine, initial conclusions can already be drawn. Chief among these is the realization that force application in complicated conditions can confront a decision maker with a serious dilemma, in which precisely a military achievement may destroy any possibility of scoring a political achievement
Topic:: Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

8456. Egypt and Israel: Renewable Energies for Peace

Author:: Ofir Winter
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Egypt’s intense preparations for the international climate conference that it will host in Sharm el-Sheikh were evident at the World Youth Forum that met there this past January. Many of the conference sessions were devoted to the climate issue, which is currently challenging the international system in general, and Egypt in particular. Cairo’s goal to serve as a regional hub for gas and renewable energies presents an opportunity for increased cooperation between Egypt and Israel – particularly at a time that Europe is confronted with the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

8457. Germany and the Ukraine Crisis: End of the Age of Illusions

Author:: Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Germany’s political-security approach of the last decades, and recent speeches in the Bundestag reflect the government’s intention to make system-wide changes in security orientation. Germany must also understand how it missed warning signs from Russia over the years, and formulate a clear policy that addresses the emerging worrisome trends
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

8458. A Rising and Falling Alarm: A Strategy for a Joint Exercise in the Home Front Command

Author:: Liron Donnell
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The incoming chief of staff of the Home Front Command responds to an article by INSS researcher Meir Elran. She contends that contrary to the claim that the national home front exercise held this past November realized only part of its potential, the exercise in fact met all of its goals and saw many solid achievements. Moreover, the criticism of the event addressed issues that cannot be resolved in a single exercise
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

8459. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Legal Aspects

Author:: Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Ori Beeri
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has been the object of significant legal pressure. While the various legal measures have no power to stop the bloody war, they deliver a powerful, unequivocal message: any state that flagrantly violates international world and undermines the world order will suffer isolation, condemnation, sanction, and criminal investigations. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history
Topic:: Military Strategy, Law, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8460. Hezbollah's Efforts to Restore its Domestic Standing: The Israeli Card

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The launch of a drone into Israeli territory this past February was yet another offensive cognitive activity by Hezbollah, intended to mask its deteriorating situation – in the domestic arena, stemming from the growing criticism of the organization in advance of the coming elections, scheduled for May, and vis-à-vis Israel, given its difficulty to maintain the “deterrence equation” that it defined. Jerusalem should expect additional acts of this sort, while preparing for a future situation in which the attacks become a security threat
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8461. Qatar’s Regional and International Standing is on the Rise

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: With the war in Ukraine and the possible energy shortage, Qatar’s international status as the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG) has risen. What opportunities now lie before Doha, and how might this situation affect Israel?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Qatar and Gulf Nations

8462. The Ukraine Crisis: An Interim Analysis

Author:: Eldad Shavit, Zvi Magen, and Shimon Stein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began only days ago, it is already clear that with this belligerence Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8463. Functional Specialisation in EU Value Chains: Methods for Identifying EU Countries’ Roles in International Production Networks

Author:: Aleksandra Kordalska, Magdalena Olczyk, Roman Stöllinger, and Zuzana Zavarská
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Geographically dispersed production networks have allowed countries to specialise in different functions of the value chain. By making use of two methodologies for quantifying the magnitude of functional specialisation – one based on trade flows and one based on FDI flows – detailed profiles of the functional specialisations of EU member states are identified. The analyses are conducted at the country, industry and regional level. In line with the existing literature, they reveal that EU-CEE countries are predominantly specialised in the fabrication stage, that is, they serve as ‘factory economies’, while the Western EU countries are mainly performing knowledge-intensive pre-fabrication activities – a characteristic of ‘headquarter economies’. This dualism within the EU is confirmed by a cluster analysis. While functional specialisation patterns tend to be persistent, especially in the fabrication stage, there are also some signs of functional diversification in EU-CEE countries in more recent years. Still, these functional changes remain limited to a few industries. The dichotomy of factory and headquarter economies is also clearly discernible at the regional level. However, the fact that in most EU countries – mainly in the capital regions – there are some headquarter-type regions implies that a complete functional ‘lock-in’ in fabrication is less likely than suggested by the country-level patterns. Hence, while the results point towards major difficulties of functional diversification beyond the fabrication stage in the EU-CEE countries and regions, there are also several promising elements and trends discernible, in particular at the industry and the regional level.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economy, Value Chains, Specialization, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

8464. FDI Spillover Effects on Innovation Activities of Knowledge-using and Knowledge-creating Firms: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Author:: Iraj Hashi, Mehtap Hisarciklilar, Slavo Radošević, Nebojša Stojčić, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: The beneficial effects of innovation for firms’ performance and competitiveness are well documented, but it has been suggested in recent years that innovation regimes differ between advanced and emerging economies. While advanced economies rely on knowledge generation, their emerging counterparts follow mainly a knowledge-use regime through the application of existing knowledge and technology. Climbing up the technological ladder can be helped through spillovers from foreign investors to local firms. We investigate whether FDI spillovers influence different phases of the innovation process (from decision to innovate to productivity) among knowledge-using and knowledge-creating firms in an emerging European economy. The results show that the innovation process in emerging economies is closer to the imitation than the creation of novel products. Local firms benefit from foreign counterparts in the early phase of the innovation process. Stronger FDI effects are found among firms that undertake innovation through knowledge use rather than through knowledge generation.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Investment, and Knowledge Systems
Political Geography:: Europe

8465. What Drives Credit Risk? Empirical Evidence from Southeast Europe

Author:: Nikola Fabris and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Bank stability is an important aspect of financial stability, especially in bank-centric systems such as those in Southeast Europe. The financial crisis has shown that there is a particular need to monitor credit and other similar risks. Hence, it is important to analyse risks affecting the stability of both the banking sector and the financial system as a whole. To that end, central banks have developed macroprudential policies aiming to safeguard financial stability. However, little is known about the drivers of some financial risks. In that context, this study analyses the determinants of credit risk, which is the most prominent risk in the banking sectors of three selected Southeast European economies – Montenegro, Kosovo* and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dynamic panel data techniques were applied to 48 banks, which represent almost the entire banking sectors in the respective countries. The empirical evidence has shown that both macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants represent influential factors driving credit risk in Southeast Europe. Particularly important macroeconomic factors affecting credit risk are business cycle and sovereign debt. On the other hand, bank size, capital levels, credit activity and profitability are the most prominent factors influencing credit risk in the region.
Topic:: Risk, Credit, Financial Stability, and Banking
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

8466. Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets

Author:: Stefan Jestl
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper explores the effects of industrial robots and information and communication technology (ICT) on regional employment in EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonised comprehensive regional dataset, which combines business statistics and national and regional accounts data. This rich dataset enables us to provide detailed insights into the employment effects of automation and computerisation in EU regions for the period 2001-2016. The results suggest relatively weak effects on regional total employment dynamics. However, employment effects differ between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Industrial robots show negative employment effects in local manufacturing industries, but positive employment effects in local non-manufacturing industries. While the negative effect is concentrated in particular local manufacturing industries, the positive effect operates in local service industries. IT investments show positive employment effects only in local manufacturing industries, while CT investments are shown to be irrelevant for employment dynamics. In contrast, software and database investments have had a predominantly negative impact on local employment in both local manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries.
Topic:: Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Industry, Robotics, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe

8467. Does my Computer Protect me from Burnout? Cross-country Evidence on the Impact of ICT use within the Job Demands-Resources Model

Author:: Sandra Leitner and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper uses a large sample of employees from 35 European countries to study the direct and indirect effects of ICT use on burnout and work engagement as two opposite poles of employee psychological health, where the former comprises the three dimensions of exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy. It applies the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model and analyses the mediating role of three job demands (work extensity, work intensity, social demands) and four job resources (social support from management or colleagues, job control, rewards) on workers’ psychological health. It accounts for the importance of the place of work for the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health by differentiating between four types of workers: home-based workers, highly mobile workers, occasionally mobile workers, and workers who always work at the employer’s premises. The results show that ICT use is associated with lower levels of exhaustion but is unrelated to work engagement. Furthermore, work intensity, work extensity, social demands and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on exhaustion, while job control and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on work engagement. Our multi-group analysis attributes the negative effect of ICT use on exhaustion mainly to occasionally mobile workers and to workers who always work at the employer’s premises and highlights that the factors that mediate the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health differ across the four types of workers. Home-based workers stand out in two important respects: first, ICT use per se is unrelated to burnout; second, only one factor – work intensity – mediates the effect of ICT use on burnout, but its effect is especially strong.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Work Culture, Engagement, Computers, and Burnout
Political Geography:: Europe

8468. Comparative Advantages in the Digital Era – A Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Approach

Author:: Dario Guarascio and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper revisits the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem and investigates its fit for digital tasks and ICT capital, which both represent endowment factors that are expected to shape the digital transformation. We use a theory-consistent methodology for calculating the measured net factor content of trade (Trefler and Zhu, 2010) and apply it to a unique dataset on digital and non-digital tasks performed in detailed occupations, as well as recent data on ICT capital stocks. Equipped with these data we provide new evidence on the factor-based trade patterns for 25 EU countries and use it to test the HOV theorem. Overall, the performance of the sign test and the rank test is good if not impressive. In 83% of the cases countries are net exporters of those factors with which they are abundantly endowed, with a higher score achieved for digital tasks than for ICT capital. We conclude that the fit of the HOV theorem for highly relevant endowments of the digital era is as good as that of traditional endowment factors.
Topic:: European Union, Business, Trade, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

8469. The Impact of ICT and Intangible Capital Accumulation on Labour Demand Growth and Functional Income Shares

Author:: Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper investigates whether the diffusion of tangible IT and CT capital and intangible capital asset types has an impact on labour demand growth and the share of labour income in total income at the industry and country level. The econometric analysis is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function taking empirical stylized facts into account. The effects of technical progress embodied in the various forms of capital impact along inter-industry and intercountry production linkages, which are considered by using global value chain indicators. The analysis is broken down to examine the influence on different types of labour, including the dimensions of gender, age, and educational attainment. Accumulation of ICT assets have generally insignificant and in some cases small positive effects on labour demand and income shares, though patterns differ across types of labour. Intangible assets show a positive relation with respect to labour demand growth.
Topic:: Labor Issues, European Union, Capital, Income, and Capital Accumulation
Political Geography:: Europe

8470. Salmonella Program in the European Union and the Trade Dispute with Brazil at the World Trade Organisation: A Partial Equilibrium Framework

Author:: Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This contribution provides a cost-benefit analysis in a partial equilibrium framework to investigate the welfare consequences of a prohibitive regulatory non-tariff measure (NTM) in the form of a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure aimed at a foreign product with perceived negative characteristics. Two groups of consumers are distinguished: one that is indifferent to the foreign product’s negative attributes, and another that is concerned about them. Different scenarios concerning the welfare gains from the introduction of an NTM are explored. The results depend on consumer awareness and information policies pursued by the government of the importing country or group of countries. The theoretical model is illustrated with data on the production and importation of prepared poultry in the EU. This paper focusses on the recent Dispute Settlement (DS) case 607 at the World Trade Organization (WTO) that was initiated by Brazil in November 2021 to consult with the EU on restrictive measures imposed on the importation of prepared and preserved poultry. These restrictions are in line with the comprehensive and restrictive programme legislated by the EU to combat salmonella spp. The findings suggest that the consumer surplus may be reduced after the imposition of prohibitive SPS measures because the market structure changes from a duopoly to a monopoly. However, when the perceived harm of the bad product increases and the portion of the concerned population in society regarding the bad product increases, the change in the consumer surplus also increases.
Topic:: World Trade Organization, European Union, Welfare, Trade Policy, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Europe, Brazil, and South America

8471. The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis

Author:: Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper analyses the cyclicality of fiscal policy (discretionary versus automatic) for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021 by paying special attention to the Covid-19 crisis. We find evidence that discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more countercyclical than before – in particular in the Eurozone. We do not find comparable evidence for more counter-cyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis, which lends support to the argument that discretionary fiscal policy responded especially forceful to stabilise the economy during the Covid-19 crisis. Furthermore, automatic fiscal stabilisers contributed significantly to counter-cyclical stabilisation, although their performance over 2020-2021 was more in line with the past than for discretionary fiscal policy. Overall, fiscal policy in non-Eurozone advanced countries is more countercyclical than in the Eurozone. However, the cyclicality varies markedly across countries. Our findings shed light on how the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy varies across countries and time.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

8472. Achieving a Safer U.S. Nuclear Posture

Author:: Joseph Cirincione
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • U.S. nuclear posture is on a dangerous path that imperils national security and expends far too many resources. It is not a rational response to external threats but is driven primarily by domestic factors including a hubristic strategy of nuclear supremacy, partisan politics, and entrenched arms lobbies with formidable influence in the Pentagon and Congress. • A safer nuclear policy entails, among other steps, reducing the number of deployed strategic warheads by one-third, to about 1,000, taking nuclear-armed missiles off hair-trigger alert, embracing no first use or sole purpose doctrines, and requiring an additional senior official to authorize launch. Pacts such as AUKUS that encourage the spread of nuclear weapons technology must also be rethought. • If implemented, these policies will greatly reduce risk while maintaining deterrence; they will also lead to significant savings in the national security budget. A majority of independent experts believe that U.S. national security objectives can be met at far lower levels and with a safer nuclear posture, saving hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few decades. • Many of these recommendations can be implemented even if the Biden administration’s upcoming Nuclear Posture Review proves disappointing. The president retains substantial policy and budgetary options for reducing the risk of nuclear war and the cost of nuclear deterrence.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Budget, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8473. Beyond Deterrence: A Peace Game Exercise for the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Frank Aum and Jessica J. Lee
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This report describes a virtual role-playing peace game exercise conducted in October 2021 that simulated diplomatic negotiations aimed at making tangible progress toward improving relations, enhancing security, and building confidence on the Korean Peninsula. The exercise, hosted by the United States Institute of Peace, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, and the Sejong Institute in Seoul, consisted of negotiating teams representing the United States, South Korea, North Korea, and China. The U.S. and North Korean teams emerged as the principal actors in the exercise, determining whether negotiations remained static or moved forward. However, these teams perceived potential losses in negotiations more acutely than potential gains, which resulted in diplomatic inertia. Both teams seemed open to negotiations as long as the other side took the first conciliatory step, but presidential leadership and political will were necessary to overcome inaction. The U.S. team also seemed more driven by the risks of North Korean aggression and duplicity in negotiations than the South Korean team, which led to divergent policy approaches between allies. In addition, the U.S.-China rivalry fueled a zero-sum mentality that hindered opportunities for progress and heightened misunderstandings between the U.S. and South Korean teams. These observations lead to the following policy recommendations for the actors involved: Advancing peace and denuclearization will require the highest level of executive leadership and intervention from all parties to build support for a final agreement. For the United States, that means greater presidential prioritization and increased coordination with Congress. All parties should start with smaller, more reversible measures; mitigate the risk of failure; and highlight potential gains. The United States should consider confidence-building measures that jump-start negotiations but do not undermine its security interests. Washington should strengthen coordination with Seoul on North Korea policy and other key alliance matters to harmonize strategies. To achieve progress, all parties should separate issues pertaining to the Korean Peninsula from the U.S.-China contestations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America

8474. Pathways to Pentagon Spending Reductions: Removing the Obstacles

Author:: William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Despite the changing security landscape, in which nonmilitary challenges ranging from pandemics to climate change are the gravest threats to the American people, United States security spending continues to focus on the Pentagon at the expense of other agencies and other policy tools. • In December 2021 Congress authorized $768 billion in spending on the Pentagon and related work on nuclear warheads at the Department of Energy — $25 billion more than the Pentagon asked for, and higher in real terms than peak budgets during the Korean and Vietnam wars and the Reagan buildup of the 1980s. An additional $10 billion in mandatory spending drove the final figure to $778 billion. There are press reports — yet to be officially confirmed by the administration — that the comparable proposal for spending on national defense in the fiscal year 2023 budget could exceed $800 billion.1 • The three main drivers of excessive spending on the Department of Defense are strategic overreach, pork-barrel politics, and corporate lobbying. • An overly ambitious, “cover-the-globe” strategy that favors military primacy and endless war must be replaced with a strategy of restraint that would provide a more-than-sufficient defense while increasing investments in diplomacy, foreign economic development, and other nonmilitary tools of statecraft. • Measures to weaken the influence of the military-industrial complex in the budget process should include prohibiting the armed services from submitting “wish lists” for items that are not in the Pentagon’s official budget request; slowing the “revolving door” between government departments and the weapons industry, and reducing the economic dependence of key communities on Pentagon spending, along with alternative government investments in areas such as infrastructure, green technology, and scientific and public health research.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Defense Spending, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

8475. The Yemen War in Numbers: Saudi Escalation and U.S. Complicity

Author:: Annelle Sheline
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Yemen’s humanitarian crisis demonstrates the consequences and risks of the American decision to enable Saudi and Emirati military action against Yemen. This decision reflects a flawed calculus: the belief that by supporting Arab security partners, the U.S. can prevent them from moving into China’s or Russia’s orbit. As recent events have demonstrated, America’s partners in the Middle East are hedging despite the Biden administration’s extensive support: For example, when the U.N. Security Council voted in February to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UAE abstained. America’s Gulf partners hope to strengthen their relationships with Moscow and Beijing while continuing to reap the benefits of Washington’s largesse. • American involvement in supporting Saudi-led military action against the Houthis in Yemen, rather than helping to resolve the conflict as the Biden administration claims, is prolonging and escalating the violence. By continuing to support Saudi and Emirati aggression, the U.S. not only deepens its complicity in the slaughter of Yemen’s civilian population; it also risks getting dragged into more active participation in the war on behalf of these two Arab security partners. • Biden committed to ending support for offensive operations in Yemen. His administration alleges that the support America provides to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is merely defensive. Yet by selling weapons it designates as defensive, as well as servicing contracts for spare parts and maintenance for the Saudi air force, the U.S. actively helps the coalition wage its war. Further, this position ignores the billions of dollars in offensive weapons the U.S. previously sold to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which they continue to use on Yemen. The administration asserts that the U.S. must help Saudi Arabia and the UAE defend against transborder attacks; yet the data show that Houthi transborder attacks pose a minor threat to the Saudis and Emiratis, especially compared with the scale of their attacks on Yemen. • Instead of escalating U.S. involvement in defending the Saudis and Emiratis from the consequences of their aggression, the Biden administration should suspend all arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE until they end their military intervention in Yemen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

8476. Avoiding the Dangers of a Protracted Conflict in Ukraine

Author:: Anatol Lieven, Sarang Shidore, and Marcus Stanley
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: A protracted conflict in Ukraine looks increasingly plausible. Russia continues to launch attacks on military and civilian targets, and the United States and its partners are increasing shipments of arms to the Zelensky government. Washington is reportedly making plans to support long-term guerrilla warfare against Russian forces, should Kyiv fall. The current path toward a protracted war in Ukraine is highly undesirable and is laden with grave risks to the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and the international community. Such risks include: • a high cost in Ukrainian lives and suffering and the destruction of Ukraine — its infrastructure, institutions, and social fabric; • radicalization of Ukrainian society and a consequent civil war; • escalation to a great-power war, potentially involving nuclear weapons and pitting NATO against Russia, thereby threatening U.S. national security; • a weakening of NATO’s cohesion; • a prolonged global recession that strikes the U.S. as hard as it will any other nation. The United States and its allies should avoid these destructive outcomes by prioritizing support for the Ukrainian government to achieve a diplomatic settlement. Such a settlement will result in a more secure outcome for Ukraine, the United States, the European allies, and the rest of the world. While the details of such a settlement lie beyond this brief’s scope, the progress of Ukrainian–Russian talks indicates that a settlement providing for meaningful sovereignty and independence for Ukraine is possible. Avoiding a protracted conflict also implies that the United States should not adopt maximalist objectives, such as regime change in Moscow or the complete and decisive defeat of Russia. It should instead deploy sanctions to build up Ukraine’s negotiating leverage.
Topic:: NATO, Conflict, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

8477. Ending Primacy to End U.S. Wars

Author:: Daniel Bessner
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • If America’s decision-makers are to learn from the Iraq War (2003–11), they must recognize it not as an aberration or an isolated mistake, but as a direct consequence of the U.S. search for primacy in the Middle East. The Iraq War was overdetermined in that tensions between the U.S. and Iraq were rooted fundamentally in Iraq’s perceived challenge to U.S. regional dominance. Consequently, in the “unipolar moment,” a U.S. effort to change the regime in Baghdad was bound to occur after some spark, such as the September 11 attacks, set it in motion. • Today, a similar desire to sustain dominance in Asia places the U.S. on a collision course with China. To avoid war with China, policy elites must reconceive their commitment to primacy and recognize that the United States will not be able to dictate terms in its relations with others in an emergent multipolar world. • Some competition between the United States and China is probably inevitable. But this competition does not present an existential threat to the U.S. and therefore must not be allowed to prevent necessary cooperation to address the major threats of the 21st century: inequality, population movements, pandemics, and climate change.
Topic:: War, History, Hegemony, Military Intervention, and Gulf War
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

8478. The Folly of Pushing South Korea Toward a China Containment Strategy

Author:: Jessica J. Lee and Sarang Shidore
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The narrow victory of conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in the recent South Korean presidential election comes against the backdrop of an intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, now compounded by the Ukraine crisis. Washington would like South Korea to play a security role in its Indo-Pacific strategy — a strategy that effectively aims to contain China. However, South Korean elites (and the general public) are deeply ambivalent and internally divided on the question of containing China. Pushing South Korea — a robust democracy with major elite divisions — toward containing Beijing risks negative consequences for the United States. These include a reduction in U.S. influence in South Korea, erosion of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, a less-effective South Korean presence in the region, and, in the long run, the potential of South Korean neutrality with respect to China. To avoid these negative outcomes for the United States, Washington should: • Avoid pressuring South Korea to join its China-containment strategy, • Refrain from including Seoul in emerging, non-inclusive, bloc-like structures of U.S. allies in Asia, • Consider pulling back on its intended new Terminal High Altitude Area Defense deployments until a greater consensus is reached within South Korea on the issue, • See South Korea’s role as a bridge and an opportunity to stabilize Washington’s own relationship with Beijing. For example, both South Korea and China could be included in non-traditional security activities of the Quad such as infrastructure and climate change, and • More generally, demilitarize the Quad and open it to wider participation for strengthening U.S. influence in Asia, rather than see it as a zero-sum vehicle for containing China.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Containment, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

8479. The Lobbying Battle Before the War: Russian and Ukrainian Influence in the U.S.

Author:: Ben Freeman
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fateful decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine has united much of the world in condemnation of this unprovoked assault on a sovereign nation. In Ukraine, the war has already caused rampant destruction, the deaths of thousands of civilians, and the displacement of millions, while tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides of the conflict have been killed or wounded. The U.S. has imposed crippling sanctions on Russia’s energy and financial sectors while providing tens of billions of dollars in military assistance to Ukraine. • Behind the headlines of these U.S. foreign policy decisions lies a major, but little-discussed, factor in foreign policy: lobbying. Nearly every action the government has taken regarding Russia and Ukraine has been the object of considerable attempts at influence by U.S.-based lobbyists for Ukraine and Russia. Based on an exhaustive analysis of all Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) and Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA) documents filed by organizations registered to work on behalf of Ukrainian and Russian clients in 2021, this brief offers a number of key findings, including: ° Nine organizations were registered under FARA to work on behalf of Russian clients in 2021, while 11 were working for Ukrainian clients. ° Those organizations reported making just 21 contacts on behalf of their Russian clients and 13,541 contacts on behalf of their Ukrainian clients. ° Russian clients paid over $42 million to firms representing them, (although $38 million of this went to Russian state media), while Ukrainian clients paid just over $2 million to the firms working on their behalf. ° Ukrainian lobbying efforts add up to more than four times the amount of work the Saudi lobby (among the largest foreign lobbies in Washington) and other prominent groups have reported in any year—due in large part to a notable gap in transparency. ° The pro-Ukraine lobby appears to have achieved far more contacts than the pro-Russia lobby with less money spent, an anomaly that could be explained by the pro-Russia lobby using a less transparent statute—the LDA—for reporting its lobbying efforts and the greater zeal shown by some pro-Ukraine lobbyists.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Influence, Lobbying, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

8480. The Humanitarian Paradox: Why Human Rights Require Restraint

Author:: Asli Bâli
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: For the United States to be “committed to a world in which human rights are protected, their defenders are celebrated, and those who commit human rights abuses are held accountable” requires more than rhetorical flourishes.1 To achieve the goal of protecting and promoting human rights, the United States must embrace a more restrained security posture together with a persistent diplomatic strategy that prioritizes engagement ahead of confrontation. Military force and economic coercion are the wrong tools for advancing human rights. As the cases of Iraq and Libya demonstrate, preventive or humanitarian wars have critically impaired human rights. Similarly, comprehensive sanctions regimes have imposed severe human rights costs while achieving few U.S. foreign policy goals, if any, in targeted countries. The United States should therefore incorporate the following policy approaches in the service of human rights: • Right-size its expectations of what American power can achieve to protect and advance human rights abroad. On balance, exaggerated and unrealistic confidence in American power has hurt rather than helped the cause of human rights. • Serve as a public advocate of human rights in multilateral settings, engaging with international institutions to pressure allies and adversaries alike on their human rights records. At the same time, the United States should raise human rights concerns directly in its bilateral dealings when abuses come to light, using private diplomacy to highlight specific issues or changes that are priorities. • Do much more to support the protection and promotion of human rights in areas under its direct control or influence. This would include, at a minimum, halting human rights abuses committed by the U.S. in its own counterterrorism operations, freezing military aid when U.S. arms are implicated in targeting civilians, building on the recent openness to Ukrainian refugees by strengthening and expanding U.S. asylum and refugee resettlement programs globally, and greatly increasing delivery of humanitarian aid, in the form of funding as well as medical and food assistance, to civilian populations deprived of their socioeconomic rights due to conflict, climate change, and the global food crisis.
Topic:: Human Rights, War, Humanitarian Intervention, and Coercion
Political Geography:: United States of America

8481. NATO’s Tunnel Vision

Author:: George Beebe
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Despite Russia’s violent rejection of a NATO-centric Europe, the United States should still pursue its vision of a continent that will one day be “peaceful, whole, and free.” The alternative is a blood-soaked division of the continent, constantly prone to escalation into a direct conflict with Russia. The United States needs to adopt a different approach to achieving its vision, as follows: • The path to peace must begin with settling the conflict in Ukraine, and the key to a settlement is securing Ukraine’s independence as a neutral state outside NATO. • If Europe is to be whole, NATO cannot serve as its overarching security arm. NATO should focus on defense of its existing members, not expanding its ranks or operating out of area, including against China. • Over time, our goal should be evolution toward a U.N. Security Council-type arrangement in Europe that includes both NATO and non-NATO members. The price of admission for Russia must be good faith compliance with the terms of a settlement in Ukraine. • If Europe is to be free, we must recognize that a stable security environment in Europe is a prerequisite for the ex-Soviet states gradually becoming more liberal. The best means of ensuring that Europe is free is by revitalizing democracy within the West itself.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

8482. Strategic Patience: Sustainable Engagement with a Changed Afghanistan

Author:: Adam Weinstein
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: One year after the United States withdrew its military from Afghanistan, relations between the two countries are stuck in a holding pattern. The United States remains the single largest humanitarian donor to the people of Afghanistan, with over $774 million USD distributed since the Taliban takeover, but the United States maintains no diplomatic presence in the country — nor does it send official diplomatic envoys.1 U.S. sanctions have not altered the Taliban’s calculus on human rights or ties with al-Qaeda. The Taliban has proved intransigent and unrealistic in its relations not only with Washington but with neighboring countries like Pakistan. Its senior leaders lack a coherent vision for the country and its emir remains reclusive.2 Future U.S. policymakers might be tempted to disengage diplomatically and economically from Afghanistan and instead rely primarily on “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism.3 The most likely consequence of this approach would be a more isolated and unstable Afghanistan, which in turn could foster an even more permissive environment for transnational terrorists. Consistent diplomacy tied to long-term U.S. security objectives is likely to produce incremental results at best, but is still preferable to diplomatic disengagement or military intervention. This brief provides a concise background and analysis of the most pressing issues affecting U.S. interests in Afghanistan. It draws on open source data; interviews with government officials — including from the de facto Taliban government; and interviews with private analysts that were conducted remotely or in person — in the United States, Pakistan, and Qatar. Broad policy recommendations • The United States should work closely with regional countries, including Pakistan, India, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to ensure they are prepared to handle security challenges as they emerge. If the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is revived, opportunities may emerge to engage Iran on Afghanistan. These should include routine dialogue, intelligence sharing, and capacity building, such as policing and border security. Washington should engage separately with India and Pakistan to bolster humanitarian aid and limited commerce to Afghanistan. • The United States should reiterate mutual responsibilities under the 2020 agreement it signed with the Taliban in Doha, but recognize that it lacks effective enforcement mechanisms and therefore is better understood as an aspirational framework. • Formal recognition of the de facto Taliban government should be withheld until it demonstrates a clear commitment to its counterterrorism responsibilities and respect for basic human rights, including for women. But Washington should place diplomats in Afghanistan either through the creation of an in-country Afghanistan affairs unit, whether based in the prior U.S. Embassy or inside a friendly third country’s diplomatic mission, or by sending temporary delegations to Kabul, as our allies have. This should be coupled with multilateral steps to remove the leadership’s travel privileges. It is important that U.S. officials interact with Taliban cabinet members in Kabul and other Taliban stakeholders based in Kandahar.4 Direct outreach by U.S. military officials and the intelligence community may have utility but it is not a replacement for a coherent civilian-led diplomatic strategy. • Sanctions intended to target the Taliban as a non-state actor now extend far beyond their original scope, since they became the de facto government of Afghanistan. If not yet determined, the U.S. government should communicate what steps the Taliban must take to be de-listed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Group.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sanctions, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America

8483. Managed Competition: A U.S. Grand Strategy for a Multipolar World

Author:: George Beebe
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated pre-existing momentum toward a multipolar global order. In response, the Biden administration effectively rallied NATO and ensured that Russian forces cannot resubjugate Ukraine. But it has not anchored its tactical moves in a broader strategy to safeguard America’s most critical interests. As a result, we are fast headed toward a two-front geopolitical faceoff in which a belligerent Russia and a rising China are cooperating closely with each other against the United States. In a world in which power is shifting from the West toward the East and Global South, the United States is enmeshed in a proxy war with the world’s largest nuclear power, and Americans face mounting political and social challenges at home, a dangerous gap has emerged between Washington’s global ambitions and its ability to achieve them. The United States had a large margin for strategic error during its era of post-Cold War global primacy, when it faced no significant great power challengers. It has no such cushion today. America needs to rethink its grand strategy. This should involve the following elements: • Recognize that attempts to isolate and weaken Russia and China are likely to fail. The combination of Russia’s vast natural resources and China’s economic heft and centrality to global commerce present a challenge far different from what we faced during the Cold War, when the Soviet Union posed a military and ideological threat but was economically feeble. • Avoid promoting regime change or otherwise undermining political and economic stability in Russia and China, which could have serious blowback effects in the United States. The United States’ economic health is to a great degree dependent on that of China. Information technology has made us vulnerable to external subversion at a time when American society is dangerously divided and mistrustful of key institutions. • Instead, pursue a strategy of managed competition, in which our rivals are not only counterbalanced by American power and alliances, but also are constrained by agreed rules of the game that are tailored to an era in which advances in precision weaponry, cyber technology, and artificial intelligence pose significant new threats to stability. • Be more selective about where the United States should focus its involvement. As a seapower dependent on trade and robust international partnerships, the United States must remain engaged with the world. But Washington can no longer afford to squander its resources on quixotic democratization crusades or on policing regions that are not central to America’s own well-being. Greater burden sharing by allies and partners is essential. • Aim to gain a breathing spell abroad so that we can focus on healing our domestic wounds and advancing prosperity at home. This also means that the United States should avoid framing its global challenges in terms of an existential battle between democracy and authoritarianism.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America

8484. Inequality Can Only Be Fixed By Structural Economic Reform

Author:: Graeme Maxton
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Inequality is like a slippery eel: it is easy to see but very hard to grasp. It has endured for centuries and has worsened recently.1 As a result of climate change, it is likely to become more of a problem in the future, bringing the risk of widespread instability. Although inequality has been a problem for a very long time, economists, social scientists, and political thinkers have failed to devise any lasting solutions. This is because the responses so far have been tepid-hearted, torn between three competing ideas.
Topic:: Reform, Inequality, and Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8485. Women’s Security in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:: Immaculée Birhaheka
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: The fight for women’s rights in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) originated in the 1950s with the creation of young women’s social centers in local Catholic churches. In the early 1980s, challenges within the fight grew with the emergence of the NGO system, which brought non-state actors into activism for social change. This development popularized the idea that, because women constitute 52 percent of the population, abandoning them would be a mistake. However, the road to women’s social emancipation remains long and perilous.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, History, Women, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

8486. Competition between Democracy and Autocracy: The Defining Challenge of the 21st Century

Author:: Derek Mitchell
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Ambassador Derek Mitchell is the president of the National Democratic In- stitute. He served as the U.S. ambassador to Myanmar from 2012 –2016, following a long and distinuguished career in and outside the government.
Topic:: International Affairs, Democracy, Strategic Competition, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8487. The Need and Hope for Arms Control

Author:: Michael Krepon
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: An Interview with Nick Madoff and Luka Willett
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Interview, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8488. On Nuclear Politics and Financial Crime

Author:: Togzhan Kassenova
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Dr. Togzhan Kassenova is a Washington, DC-based senior fellow with the Project on International Security, Commerce, and Economic Statecraft (PISCES) at the Center for Policy Research, SUNY-Albany and a nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She is an expert on nuclear politics, WMD nonproliferation, strategic trade controls, sanctions imple- mentation, and financial crime prevention. She currently works on issues related to proliferation financing controls, exploring ways to minimize access of proliferators to the global financial system. Kassenova holds a Ph.D. in Politics from the Univer- sity of Leeds and is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS). From 2011 to 2015 Kassenova served on the UN secretary general’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters. Kassenova is the author of Atomic Steppe: How Kazakhstan Gave Up the Bomb (forthcoming, Stanford University Press, 2022).
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nonproliferation, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8489. Coups D’état in the Covid-19 Era

Author:: John J. Chin
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: In the years preceding the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, many observers were cheerily optimistic about the decline of coups d’état in the twenty-first century. As late as early 2019, for example, Axios declared confidently that coups—or illegal seizures of power by military or government actors—“are becoming a thing of the past.”1 In early 2022, the same journalist and outlet reported that “coups are making a comeback.”2 Between those three years (January 2019–January 2022), 13 coup attempts occurred, 10 of which succeeded. By contrast, in the three years beforehand (January 2016–January 2019), there had only been five coup attempts, two of which were successful. In other words, the number of coup attempts more than doubled, and the number of successful coups quintupled, according to my updated Colpus dataset of coup types.3 What accounts for the apparent coup comeback? Is the pandemic itself to blame? In this article, I draw on my newly updated Colpus dataset of coup types, documenting all coups through February 2022, to survey the history of recent coups. I first show that after several decades in decline, coups started to make their comeback before the pandemic. I then survey the potential causes of “covid coups” and the factors for why recent coups have been overwhelmingly concentrated in Africa. I conclude by reflecting on the legacy of “covid coups.”
Topic:: Coup, COVID-19, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

8490. The Geopolitical Dimensions of Chinese Infrastructure

Author:: David M. Lampton
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: David M. Lampton is Senior Fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute and Professor Emeritus at Johns Hopkins--SAIS. Immediately prior to his current post he was Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at Stanford University’s Asia-Pacific Research Center from 2019-2020. For more than two de- cades prior to that he was Hyman Professor and Director of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Lampton is former Chairman of The Asia Foundation, former President of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, and for- mer Dean of Faculty at SAIS. Among many written works, academic and popular is his most recent book (with Selina Ho and Cheng-Chwee Kuik), Rivers of Iron: Railroads and Chinese Power in Southeast Asia (University of California Press, 2020). He received his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees from Stanford University in political science where, as an undergraduate student, he was a firefighter. Lampton has an honorary doctorate from the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Far Eastern Studies. He is a Life Trustee on the Board of Trustees of Colorado College and was in the US Army Reserve in the enlisted and commissioned ranks.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Interview, and Railways
Political Geography:: China and Asia

8491. A Dangerous Journey to the U.S. and a “New Deal” for Migrant Women and Girls

Author:: Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera and Michelle Keck
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: The U.S.-Mexico border has always experienced significant migration flows. Migration to the United States from Mexico increased significantly in 1900 due to political unrest in Mexico and the rise of agribusiness in the South- west, an increase that resulted in the creation of the United States Border Patrol in 1924.1 Initially, most migrants who crossed the border were single, adult males, primarily from Mexico. However, since the early 2010s, most migrants apprehended at the border have been families and unaccompanied minors, mainly from Central America, but also from other parts of the world. Many of these immigrants arrive seeking asylum at official ports of entry, as well as between ports of entry.2 Since 2010, approximately 463,773 minors have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without their parents, with a notable increase from the Northern Triangle states of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala, three of the most violent countries in the world.3 The number of women and girls crossing the U.S.-Mexico border has also increased. In 2011, 42,590 women and girls were apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol. That number rose to 119,415 in 2014, under the Obama administration, and surged further to 298,489 in 2019, under the Trump administration.4 The last several decades have seen a feminization of migration, with women making the conscious decision to migrate for better opportunities. Latin American states have been leading in having the highest proportion of women among international migrants.5
Topic:: Migration, Women, Borders, and Girls
Political Geography:: Mexico and United States of America

8492. Toward a Paradigm Shift in Humanitarian Response: Centering Women and Girls in Integrated Health and Protection Services in Syria

Author:: Amany Qaddour
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: While regional instability and upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa may have foreshadowed the complexity and longevity of the crisis that would unfold in Syria in 2011, few anticipated it would exceed ten years, amounting to 6.8 million refugees across the world and 14.6 million people in need of hu- manitarian assistance within the country.1 The crisis has been defined by mass displacements, with large swaths of the population uprooted from their homes and forced to reside in camps and precarious housing; sieges in Aleppo City and Eastern Ghouta; chemical weapons attacks in Khan Shaykhoun and Douma; infectious disease outbreaks, including polio and cholera; food insecurity, notably among children and infants; a rise in persons with disabilities; persecution of aid workers; and both systematic and indiscriminate aerial bombardment of civilian infrastructure—namely hospitals, schools, and marketplaces.
Topic:: Health, Women, Syrian War, Girls, Humanitarian Response, and Protection
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

8493. The New Global Context for Development: The Unravelling of Progress in the LDCs

Author:: J. Brian Atwood
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Development professionals follow a few overriding admonitions. Two important ones are “do no harm” and “understand the local context.” A third traditional injunction has recently gained even more relevance: “Think globally and act locally.” Yet today, there is a growing need to “think globally and act globally.” Bilateral and multilateral donor agencies like USAID and the World Bank have appropriately focused their work at the national and subnational levels. Local ownership is still a valid principle of development. However, transna- tional issues and the global economic outlook are now overwhelming local development progress. Particularly in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), climate-related disasters, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the consequences of the war in Ukraine are quickly erasing development gains and exposing global inequality even more dramatically.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, Inequality, Economy, and USAID
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8494. Overcoming Barriers to Poverty Alleviation in the Arab Region

Author:: Khalid Abu-Ismail and Vladimir Hlasny
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Many Arab countries have been living beyond their means. Following years of high spending without developing a solid revenue base or adequate emergency reserves, public debt levels have skyrocketed, and governments’ balance sheets have struggled to cope with waves of crises and their required responses. Private debt levels have also grown amid chronic economic stagnation, worsening cur- rent account deficits, and absent effective public assistance during recent crises.
Topic:: Poverty, Inequality, Economy, Protection, and Income
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa

8495. Fighting for Sustainable Solutions and Greener Governance in India

Author:: Disha Ravi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Disha Ravi is a climate activits and a founder of Fridays For Future, a youth- led global climate strike movement that fights to stop climate change and address climate justice and equity.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Interview, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

8496. Pipelines and Protests: Legacies of Struggle and Resistance in the Fight Against Environmental Racism in Canada

Author:: Ingrid Waldron
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Canada was founded on enslavement and dispossession. This is most ex- emplified by its assimilationist ideologies and policies, by the displacement, subjugation, and oppression of Indigenous and Black peoples and cultures, and by the expropriation of Indigenous lands. The colonial theft of land and accumulation of capital have been foundational to Canada’s wealth. New op- portunities for Europeans to access resources prompted colonization in North America, which was followed by the creation of a global economy that came to be dominated by Spain, Portugal, Holland, France, and Britain. To access lands in the Americas, Europeans negotiated treaties, dispossessed Indigenous peoples of their lands, waged war to extinguish Indigenous populations, and eliminated or disrupted Indigenous landholding traditions.1 The unique ways in which Black and Indigenous people have been racialized and implicated in white set- tler nations and by capitalist expansion reveal the antithetical roles both groups have played in the formation of settler colonial societies. For example, while the reproduction of Black slaves in the United States was perceived as positive since it increased slave owners’ wealth, the growth of Indigenous populations was seen to jeopardize the accumulation of profit by slave owners because it made access to land more difficult.2
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Protests, Pipeline, and Racism
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

8497. Cleaning Up Dirty Industries: Strategies for a Greener Future

Author:: Deborah Gordon
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Deborah Gordon is Senior Principal in the Climate Intelligence Program at RMI (formerly Rocky Mountain Institute). She also serves as Senior Fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. She formerly served as Director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She is the author of several books, including No Standard Oil: Managing Abundant Petroleum in a Warm- ing World, Oxford University Press, 2021. After beginning her career with Chevron, Gordon managed an energy and environmental consulting practice, taught at the Yale School of the Environment, and directed the Energy Policy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Pollution, Industry, and Future
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8498. Environmental Security in the Anthropocene

Author:: Simon Dalby
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Simon Dalby is a Professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, where he teaches in the Balsillie School of International Affairs, and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. He is author of Anthropocene Geopolitics (University of Ottawa Press 2020) and Rethinking Environmental Security (Edward Elgar 2022).
Topic:: Security, Environment, Politics, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8499. Does environmental policy uncertainty hinder investments towards a low-carbon economy?

Author:: Joëlle Noailly, Laura Nowzohour, and Matthias Van Den Heuvel
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We use machine learning algorithms to construct a novel news-based index of US environmental and climate policy uncertainty (EnvPU) available on a monthly basis over the 1990-2019 period. We find that the EnvPU index spikes during the environmental spending disputes of the 1995-1996 government shutdown, in the early 2010s due the failure of the national cap-and-trade climate bill and during the Trump presidency. We examine how elevated levels of environmental policy uncertainty relate to investments in the low-carbon economy. In firm-level estimations, we find that a rise in the EnvPU index is associated with a reduced probability for cleantech startups to receive venture capital (VC) funding. In financial markets, a rise in our EnvPU index is associated with higher stock volatility for firms with above-average green revenue shares. At the macro level, shocks in our index lead to declines in the number of cleantech VC deals and higher volatility of the main benchmark clean energy exchange-traded fund. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion that policy uncertainty has adverse effects on investments for the low-carbon economy hindering progress to address the urgency of climate action.
Topic:: Environment, Finance, Economy, Investment, Institutions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8500. Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Urban, Rural, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Sub-Saharan Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS