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701. The Raw Materials of Economic Security: South Korea’s Evolving Energy and Critical Minerals Policies in an Era of Disruption

Author:
James Bowen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper argues that resource security is central to South Korea’s broader economic security and President Yoon Suk-yeol’s Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region. The paper contends that postwar Korea has maintained an energy and minerals-intensive economy despite domestic resource scarcity and import dependence. Recent disruptions have, however, threatened the resilience of this relationship. These disruptions include COVID-19, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the escalating climate change crisis and energy transition, and the geoeconomic and geopolitical erosion of the liberal order. Korea’s most important energy security priority is diversifying its energy mix towards cleaner energy—what this paper calls “green security.” This will be a difficult task given the intense national dependence on fossil fuels and policymakers’ desire to avoid disrupting Korea’s manufacturing-heavy, export-focused development model. Korea’s idiosyncratic decarbonization pathway, including a strong presence of hydrogen and, under Yoon, a downgrading of renewables in favor of nuclear, could provide additional challenges. Critical minerals are another rising resource security concern for Seoul. The major priority is to accelerate the development and diversification of international supply chains, particularly away from China. A major obstacle to progress is intense competition across the value chain, influenced by disparate economic and strategic priorities. The paper argues that Seoul must find ways to manage its energy and critical minerals security challenges in a way that is consistent with its preferred development model. The alternative is to accept a new equilibrium in which it has less domestic dependence on foreign resources and on resources-intensive economic activity in aggregate.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Minerals, Economic Security, and Energy
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

702. Economic Security and U.S.-China Competition: The View from North Korea

Author:
Rachel Minyoung Lee
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper argues that while North Korea does not discuss “economic security” in domestic contexts or have an established definition of the term, it thoroughly understands that the economy and national security are inseparable. North Korea is essentially unaffected by the typical economic issues that many major economies are grappling with in relation to economic security, but like other countries, it has closely tracked economic security developments and deepening U.S.-China strategic competition for potential political fallout and what opportunities and challenges that may generate. The paper shows that U.S.-China strategic competition has offered unique opportunities to North Korea, including China’s cover against fresh and existing sanctions against North Korea, and economic assistance. Moreover, deteriorating U.S.-China ties provide Pyongyang extra space to consider and put into motion alternative foreign and economic policy paths, namely, shifting away from its three-decade policy of nonalignment with China and normalization of relations with the United States. Also, China appears to be a factor in North Korea’s shift to a more conservative economic policy. Despite the opportunities presented by the U.S.-China divide, however, North Korea is wary of the risks of dependence on China and has tried to build economic resilience at home, for example by launching a national campaign on domestic production and recycling. North Korea’s somewhat cooler handling of China and its proportionately warm treatment of Russia since the Armistice Day celebrations in July is a clear example of North Korea’s China dilemma. This is where North Korea’s recent strengthening of ties with Russia comes into the picture. The paper contends that it is hard to conclude at this point whether North Korea’s moves are aimed at short-term, tactical gains or are part of a longer-term, strategic calculus, but we can be certain of this: it has just as much to gain or lose as any other country affected by economic security and U.S.-China strategic competition, though not in the same ways as other countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

703. Emerging public debt challenges in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Maureen Were
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s public debt burden remains a challenge to development. Key drivers of public debt include large-scale financing of infrastructure development, adverse impact of multiple shocks including COVID-19 pandemic, maturity mismatches, and high vulnerability to exchange rate and interest rate volatility. The tight financial conditions following interest rate hikes in advanced economies have exacerbated the debt burden and heightened debt sustainability risks. Half of the SSA low-income countries are either in debt distress or at high risk of it. Countries in debt distress include middle-income economies. Given the high cost of debt servicing and lack of fiscal space, achievement of sustainable development goals is in jeopardy. A long-term sustainable solution requires a multi-pronged approach. The G20 Common Framework for debt treatment remains limited in scope, coverage, and impact. More needs to be done including consideration for debt relief. Other strategies include access to long-term concessional finance, domestic resource mobilization, and improved efficiency in public spending and fiscal management.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Sustainability, Public Debt, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

704. Institutions and governance in Mozambique :A bird’s eye view based on existing databases

Author:
Ines A. Ferreira
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression/association; political participation; accountability and transparency; political instability and violence, and external relations; state legitimacy and political leadership; and governance and state capacity. Overall, the selected indicators point to similar trends within each dimension and suggest limited progress during the last decades. Still, it is fundamental that these insights and the scores presented by the indicators are put into context, and that we understand the historical path of Mozambique, the internal and external factors at play, and the fact that it takes time for progress achieved to be reflected in this type of data.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Accountability, Institutions, Judiciary, Instability, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

705. Cultivating change: the long-term impact of forced labour in Mozambique

Author:
Margherita Bove, Rute Martins Caeiro, Rachel Coelho, Sam Jones, and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Following the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production—a forced labour system that operated in colonial Mozambique from 1926 to 1961. During this period, the Portuguese colonial government granted geographic concessions to private companies, within which smallholder farmers were forced to cultivate cotton for payment in cash. Women bore the brunt of this regime, but in doing so often took on responsibilities traditionally reserved for men and engaged in active resistance strategies. Employing a spatial regression discontinuity, we explore the enduring impact of this exposure to forced cotton cultivation on present-day human and social capital, focusing specifically on rural southern Mozambique. Our estimation strategy relies on the arbitrarily defined historical borders of the concessions, which reflected the tendency of concessionaires to absorb as much territory as possible, often ignoring agronomic conditions. Drawing on bespoke individual-level survey data collected along the concession border, we find lower educational outcomes among women in former concession areas. However, this is counterbalanced by positive effects on social capital, in the form of higher levels of civil participation, more progressive attitudes towards gender norms, and an increased presence of women in leadership positions. These results suggest that exogenous ruptures that push women outside traditional boundaries can help to reinforce their role in society.
Topic:
History, Women, Colonialism, Human Capital, Social Capital, Forced Labor, and Cotton
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

706. Bolivia: desk study on aid and democracy

Author:
Swetha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study is part of a series of ten country-focused desk studies on aid and democracy prepared under the project The state and statebuilding in the Global South. They are prepared under the guidance of Rachel M. Gisselquist as background to a broader research effort on aid, governance, and democracy promotion. The studies follow a common template and each draws on the research literature and selected cross-national sources to discuss regime type and timeline, findings from the literature on democracy/democratization, findings from the literature on aid and democracy/democratization, aid flows and sources, and specific aid examples. This study addresses the case of Bolivia, with focus on the post-Cold War period.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Governance, Democracy, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

707. How to create decent work for women: Policy lessons for low- and middle-income countries

Author:
Ashwini Deshpande, Janneke Pieters, Kunal Sen, and Maria C. Lo Bue
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Despite advancements for gender equality in some spheres, labour market outcomes for women continue to be worse than for men. Gender gaps in pay, labour force participation rates, and measures of job quality are stubbornly persistent and continue to hamper women’s economic empowerment globally. Economic development and social change should improve women’s labour market outcomes, but even with large-scale public policy actions, gender-based inequalities are difficult to address.
Topic:
Women, Inequality, Income Inequality, Economic Development, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

708. Keys for sustaining Tanzania’s economic development

Author:
Oliver Morrissey and Maureen Were
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Sustainable economic development hinges on the ability of firms and households to maintain growth and wellbeing. How have Tanzania’s firms and households performed in recent decades, and what policies can improve their resilience against future shocks?
Topic:
Economy, Economic Development, Sustainability, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

709. What traders know: the (mis)perceptions of formal and informal cross-border traders

Author:
Paolo Falco and Eleanor Wiseman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
ross-border traders face a choice between official and unofficial border crossings. The latter allow them to evade taxes, but expose them to other risks, such as bribes, fines, and arrest. We investigate the perceptions of cross-border traders about the risks of trading officially vs unofficially at the border between Kenya and Uganda. We find that traders overestimate the risks of trading officially relative to the same risks when trading unofficially. In reality, the measured risks of trading through the official border are lower.
Topic:
Borders, Risk, Trade, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

710. Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa’s electricity crisis

Author:
Haroon Bhorat and Timothy Köhler
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Frequent electricity outages threaten to impede the benefits of expanded access achieved by many developing countries in recent decades. A large literature documents these negative effects, however almost none consider labour market effects. This paper merges labour force survey microdata with high-frequency electricity supply and demand data to provide the first estimates of the relationships between outages and labour market outcomes in South Africa, a country characterized by frequent, severe outages referred to as load shedding. Exploiting temporal variation in outage incidence and intensity, we find that load shedding is associated with significantly lower employment rates, working hours, and earnings on average. Employment appears more sensitive relative to intensive margin outcomes, threatening job creation and preservation efforts. These negative relationships, however, are not evident for low levels of load shedding, but their strength markedly increases with load shedding intensity. We document further heterogeneity by firm size and industry, highlighting the vulnerability of jobs in manufacturing. Overall, our findings suggest that the South African labour market is largely insensitive to relatively low levels of load shedding; however, high levels appear especially costly.
Topic:
Employment, Economy, Electricity, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

711. Labour market inequality in two Asian giants Indonesia and India compared

Author:
Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We examine the nature of labour market inequality in Indonesia and India, using a common conceptual approach drawing from the job ladder framework. In the framework, we differentiate between self-employment and wage-informal and between formal, upper tier informal, and lower tier informal jobs. We find that both countries have a large proportion of workers in lower tier jobs, though the importance of wage-employment is larger in Indonesia. There are more workers in formal wage-employment in Indonesia than India. There are also sharp disparities in the earnings of workers in different tiers of the labour market in Indonesia and India, and there is limited evidence of convergence of the earnings of the lower tier informal workers to that of formal workers, at least for Indonesia. We also find that gender and educational level are important correlates of work status in both countries. Females and less educated workers occupy the lower tiers of the labour markets in the two countries.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia, Indonesia, India, and Asia

712. Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries

Author:
Michele Di Maio, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza, Patricia Justino, and Cecilia Nardi
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We show that the Russia–Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests. The effect is heterogeneous across countries and cell types: in line with our interpretation of the empirical findings, the effect is larger in countries that are net exporters of wheat and in cells that are rural. We also show that a higher price of wheat increases political violence more in countries that are low-income, fragile, and characterized by the presence of anti-government or terrorist groups, indicating that a higher value of crop production is more likely to fuel violence in areas that are poor or not politically stable.
Topic:
Political Violence, Instability, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Asia

713. Market power and merger control in South Africa

Author:
C. Friedrich Kreuser, Michael Kilumelume, and Rulof Burger
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We estimate structural, materials, and labour markups for the South African economy at the three-digit industry level for 2012–19. The fall in structural labour and materials markups found for the numerical majority of industries are generally isolated to smaller industries, with industries accounting for a higher proportion of sales generally experiencing smaller downward shifts. We show that materials-based markups are increasing over this period. Upward markup pressure in structural and labour markups are primarily driven by compositional shifts of surviving firms, while materials markup growth is driven by the average firm in a given sector. We show that merger intensity is positively related to structural markup growth, with a 1% increase in the proportion of cumulative mergers over 2013–18 being related to around a 0.27% increase in structural markup growth over the period from 2012 to 2019. We find that large vertical mergers are positively related to structural and materials markup growth while being negatively related to labour markup growth. Large horizontal mergers generally increase labour and structural markups.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Industry, and Mergers and Acquisitions
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

714. Climate change prioritization in low-income and developing countries

Author:
Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Henry Evans
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The World Bank’s 2023 document Evolving the World Bank Group’s Mission, Operations, and Resources: A Roadmap, otherwise known as the “evolution roadmap,” sets a laudable goal to shift more focus and action onto climate change in low-income and developing countries (LIDCs). The language used throughout the report clearly reflects the Bank’s shifting priorities. The word “climate” was mentioned forty times in the evolution roadmap document, “poverty” was mentioned forty-two times, and prosperity was mentioned only twenty-one times. This shows a clear paradigm shift that is expanding from the World Bank’s “Twin Goals” of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity to also include issues related to climate change and financing. In the evolution roadmap report, the World Bank Group (WBG) rightly identifies that the world has not only stalled, but regressed in achieving the prosperity and development goals set for this decade. Further, the WBG identifies that LIDCs are not prepared to face the development challenges of the modern world. One of the key development issues the WBG identifies is climate change, which has an outsized impact on LIDCs. In this regard, the WBG has already created frameworks to engage climate issues in LIDCs. The WBG’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDR) offer a comprehensive resource to support development and climate objectives at the country level. These public reports empower governments, private sector investors, and citizens to prioritize resilience and adaptation and reduce emissions without compromising broader development objectives. These goals can be achieved, the WBG estimates, with an investment averaging 1.4 percent of a given country’s gross domestic product (GDP)— though in some low-income countries that number can be between 5 percent and 10 percent. While the CCDR gives nations the tools to achieve climate objectives without significantly compromising development, it does not bridge the gap between the increasing focus of the WBG and the developed world on climate change and the real priorities of LIDCs.
Topic:
Climate Change, Developing World, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, and Prioritization
Political Geography:
Africa, Indo-Pacific, and Americas

715. False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia

Author:
Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, and Lauren Van Metre
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia actively advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. Beijing and Moscow contend that their governance model—rooted in central control of political, social, and economic life—delivers for their people. The facts prove exactly the opposite and show that countries characterized by repression and concentrated control are far less successful across all metrics of human development than are free societies. That free societies are better for the people residing in them is not an ideological position; it is a statement of fact backed by substantial evidence, including, but not limited to, the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes. This paper aims to showcase why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies. The first section documents democratic backsliding and the reversal of freedom’s fortunes. The second section presents data on how authoritarian regimes have failed to deliver prosperity for their people. The third section outlines how free societies have done the opposite—delivered sustained prosperity for their citizens. The final section offers the conclusion that authoritarian regimes, despite their claims, cannot deliver democratic progress or prosperity for society at large.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Authoritarianism, Reform, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

716. Requirements for nuclear deterrence and arms control in a two-nuclear-peer environment

Author:
Gregory Weaver and Amy Woolf
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
After decades of seeking to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in international relations, the United States is now grappling with a global landscape marked by intense strategic competition and the growing salience of nuclear weapons—problems that will likely persist for years to come. Over the past year, Russia compounded its aggression in Ukraine with nuclear saber-rattling, modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces over the past decade. Furthermore, Russia’s possession of a substantial inventory of theater nuclear weapons continues to threaten regional deterrence. Meanwhile, in Asia, Beijing is pursuing an unprecedented surge in its nuclear capabilities. If current trends persist, China is projected to possess about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035.1 While China was once viewed as a secondary nuclear power, its substantial investment in its nuclear arsenal—including the launch of a third ballistic missile early-warning satellite in 2022 and advancements in land-based ballistic missiles, aircraft, submarines, and hypersonic missiles—positions China to become a near-equal nuclear power in the coming decade. These trends mark a historic shift. For the first time in its history, the United States must face two near-peer nuclear competitors simultaneously. At the same time, Russia’s suspension of its compliance with the New START agreement in 2023 has significantly weakened the last strategic arms control framework established in the Cold War and post-Cold War eras. This move leaves scant provisions governing the future of nuclear capabilities among the United States and its adversaries. For over half a century, Washington and Moscow negotiated to establish treaties that imposed limits on their nuclear arsenals, aiming to manage their nuclear rivalry and mitigate the risk of nuclear conflict. This process served the national security interests of both sides by curbing weapons and activities that could jeopardize deterrence, safeguarding strategic stability, offering insights into nuclear capacities, and potentially steering military competition toward less perilous avenues. However, shifts in the global security landscape have altered this calculus. The Russian Federation, much like the Soviet Union before it, has insisted that future agreements factor in the nuclear capabilities of Britain and France. On the other hand, the United States now confronts a security environment featuring two nuclear-armed adversaries—Russia and China—whose forces will potentially pose significant threats to the United States and its allies. This evolving security landscape may prompt the United States to reevaluate its assessments of its deterrence and arms control requirements. But how should the United States approach this problem?
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, Korea, and United States of America

717. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era

Author:
Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

718. Not without her: A roadmap for gender equality and Caribbean prosperity

Author:
Wazim Mowla and Valentina Sader
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Caribbean is one of the most vulnerable regions globally. It harbors economies that are open-faced and import-dependent, making it susceptible to the ravages of climate change, fluctuating commodity prices, and inflationary pressures. While governments and financial institutions grapple with these perpetual stresses, it is the Caribbean citizens, particularly women and girls, who bear the heaviest burden. Nestled in this uniquely vulnerable region, women and girls face a multitude of challenges, demanding comprehensive support from both governments and financial institutions to enhance their resilience and opportunities throughout society. Their integration across various sectors, including government, business, and local organizations, emphasizes that addressing gender challenges cannot occur in isolation. The global issues looming over the Caribbean magnify the specific hurdles confronting women and girls. From gender-based violence (GBV) and economic barriers to limited political influence and the disproportionate impacts of climate change, the challenges intertwine, creating a crisis of gender inequality and inequity across the Caribbean. This publication compiles findings from a yearlong consultative effort, revealing that the challenges faced by women and girls are rooted in societal perceptions of their roles and restricted access to tools and resources. To overcome these barriers, a fundamental reshaping of social norms, alongside political and financial institutions, is imperative. Moreover, integrating women and girls into the development model aligns with the region’s broader ambitions of achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), unlocking untapped human capital and fostering long-term prosperity. In collaboration with the UN Women Caribbean Multi-Country Office, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and its Caribbean Initiative embarked on a year-long partnership. This initiative aimed to address GBV, economic empowerment challenges, limited political influence, and the disproportionate effects of climate change facing women and girls in the Caribbean. The extensive consultative process involved roundtable discussions, capacity-building sessions, and one-on-one consultations, shedding light on the preconceptions held by both men and women toward women and girls in Jamaica and Guyana during 2023. The partnership has honed in on social norms as a focal point, recognizing their impact on perceptions and discussions about the challenges faced by women and girls.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Inequality, Economy, Resilience, and Gender
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

719. Sanctions have become a tool of first resort. But enforcement needs upgraded and updated resources.

Author:
David Mortlock and Alex Zerden
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Enforcement remains a critical but underresourced element of economic sanctions. The US Congress and the Department of the Treasury should consider updates to its resources, public guidance, and policies to ensure the efficacy of sanctions enforcement as the use of the sanctions policy tool continues to expand. Economic sanctions are often described as the foreign policy tool of first resort. The Department of the Treasury acknowledged this reality in its “2021 Sanctions Review.” Through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Treasury Department administers thirty-eight different, albeit overlapping, economic sanctions programs. With only a few hundred employees, OFAC has a nearly unparalleled national security mandate with oversight of the US economy and many other facets of global economic activities. OFAC develops policies for the use of sanctions, designates sanctions targets like individuals, entities, and jurisdictions, engages with the private sector to promote compliance, and civilly enforces apparent violations by US persons and others. This latter enforcement role represents a critical but often overlooked capability. For instance, the same “2021 Sanctions Review” does not even mention the enforcement function in its assessment. (However, it did seek to ensure that sanctions are “enforceable” in the context of sanctions implementation.) Resource constraints, a lack of attention, and the prioritization of policy crises hamper this enforcement function. In 2023, OFAC only undertook seventeen public enforcement actions, including its largest settlement to date with Binance, a global cryptocurrency exchange. For perspective, the Department of Justice terminated 63,419 civil cases in fiscal year 2022, according to the most recent public data. As the wider interagency continues to rely on sanctions as a critical tool and the United States seeks to expand partner sanctions capacity, US policymakers must fully support the sanctions enforcement function. Strengthening the internal controls for OFAC enforcement improves the rule of law through improved due process and protects OFAC from legal challenges that could existentially undermine its national security mission. OFAC enforcement urgently requires increased budgetary resources and an upskilled workforce from Congress, stronger internal procedures to avoid litigation risks, improved public guidance, and revised enforcement guidelines to promote consistency and improve compliance by industry.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, Transparency, and Enforcement
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

720. Geoeconomic fragmentation and net-zero targets

Author:
Shirin Hakim and Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The second half of the twentieth century experienced significant economic integration. International trade, cross-border migration, capital flows, and technological diffusion increased per capita incomes across countries and reduced global poverty. However, events such as the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic—all against the backdrop of escalating great power rivalry and tensions between the United States and China—have demonstrated the rise of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, a growing numberof world leaders have addressed the impacts of GEF on global energy and agricultural markets. For one, higher and increasingly volatile food and energy prices have made it increasingly difficult for developing nations to prioritize environmental concerns and implement sustainable development initiatives.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

721. The flaws in project-based carbon credit trading and the need for jurisdictional alternatives

Author:
Byron Swift, Ken Berlin, George Frampton, and Frank Willey
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This issue brief highlights several significant, and at times unresolvable, problems with the project-based approach to carbon credit trading, the purpose of which is to reduce deforestation and sequester carbon. Beginning with first-hand observations of the principal author during his experience with forest conservation efforts in the tropics, the brief describes the challenges that arise when this crediting model is implemented in the field, particularly in rainforests and other remote areas of the world. The publication then assesses the three critical structural problems with project-based credit trading that lead to a fundamental lack of integrity in such programs: The intractable challenges of a project-based regulatory structure involving difficult-to-prove requirements of additionally and leakage prevention. The major transaction and intermediary costs that can amount to half of project funding. The credit duration that is far less than the life of the additional CO2 emissions that are consequently emitted. The analysis also explains how economic forces and incentives exacerbate these problems, particularly with programs that are carried out by commercial credit traders as opposed to nonprofit entities. Finally, this brief discusses better alternatives, such as jurisdictional programs administered by governments or Indigenous associations, that could more effectively reduce emissions and strengthen the social fabric of communities required to assure credit integrity, accurate measurement, and adequate co-benefits.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Carbon Emissions, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

722. With the 2024 Mexican election looming, here are two major recommendations for the next president

Author:
Ignacia Ulloa Peters, Martin Cassinelli, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Charlene Aguilera
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Countries representing half the world’s population are voting in 2024. On June 2, just over five months before Election Day in the United States, Mexican voters will set a historic milestone with the election of the country’s first female president. Over the course of her six-year term, Mexico’s new president will face enormous challenges—internally and in the country’s relationship with the United States. But, like never before, there is also a unique opportunity to strengthen the commercial and economic ties that bind the two countries and reimagine how our shared border could better serve our shared interests. Although the United States and Mexico have long been economically intertwined, in 2023, Mexico became the United States’ most important trading partner. Now more than ever, with great geopolitical headwinds, the commercial ties that bind our two countries will be increasingly critical to advancing US economic interests globally. Here, greater border efficiency will yield economic gains alongside improvements in our shared security. The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, in partnership with internal and external colleagues and partners, sought to envision the future of two key aspects of the US-Mexico relationship: commercial flows and investment. With extensive feedback and numerous consultations with border stakeholders, including business owners, truck drivers, port operators, civilians, and local and federal elected officials, we sought out fresh perspectives and actionable recommendations. Our goal with this report is to spark dialogue among policymakers, business leaders, and civil society in both countries on the urgent need to address the immediate challenges of border efficiency and investment attraction over the next Mexican president’s term while paving the way for a more prosperous and secure future in our countries. The Rio Grande and its surrounding towns are more than a physical barrier separating the United States and Mexico. Rather, they are a vibrant artery of commerce, migration, and cultural exchange. Livelihoods depend on our border, but inefficiencies prevent us from maximizing the possible economic opportunities and achieving the necessary security gains. The pages that follow build on previous center findings and emphasize the need for a nuanced approach to foreign investment, infrastructure development, and security measures that prioritize efficiency and our national interests. This publication also seeks to bring the human dimension to the forefront. Public policy, after all, should reflect how to improve everyday lives. We consolidate the stories of real people affected by the US-Mexico border daily. The combined stories we have gathered over the last two years remind us of the impact of policy decisions. That reminder is particularly poignant with the 2024 elections on both sides of the border. Indeed, we stand on the cusp of a new chapter in our shared history. This report is a call to action for visionary leadership and bold, pragmatic solutions to the complex issues facing the United States and Mexico. We urge policymakers to embrace policies and strategies that address immediate challenges while laying the groundwork for both an even more inclusive and prosperous future. Let’s seize this unique moment in time.
Topic:
Elections, Economy, Innovation, Trade, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

723. Who’s a national security risk? The changing transatlantic geopolitics of data transfers

Author:
Kenneth Propp
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The geopolitics of transatlantic data transfers have been unvarying for the past decade. European governments criticize the US National Security Agency (NSA) for exploiting personal data moving from Europe to the United States for commercial reasons. The US government responds, through a series of arrangements with the European Union, by providing assurances that NSA collection is not disproportionate, and that Europeans have legal avenues if they believe their data has been illegally used. Although the arrangements have not proven legally stable, on the whole they have sufficed to keep data flowing via subsea cables under the Atlantic Ocean. Now the locus of national security concerns about international data transfers has shifted from Brussels to Washington. The Biden administration and the US Congress, in a series of bold measures, are moving aggressively to interrupt certain cross-border data flows, notably to China and Russia. The geopolitics of international data flows remain largely unchanged in Europe, however. European data protection authorities have been mostly noncommittal about the prospect of Russian state surveillance collecting Europeans’ personal data. Decisions on whether to transfer European data to Russia and China remain in the hands of individual companies. Will Washington’s new focus on data transfers to authoritarian states have an impact in Europe? Will Europe continue to pay more attention to the surveillance activities of its liberal democratic allies, especially the United States? Is there a prospect of Europe and the United States aligning on the national security risks of transfers to authoritarian countries?
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Economy, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

724. Digital services for e-government: opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market

Author:
Nii Simmonds
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In partnership with Africa Development Solutions (ADS) Group, the Africa Center released a report on “Digital services for e-government: Opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market” by Atlantic Council, GeoTech Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nii Simmonds. This report argues that e-government solutions have the potential to revolutionize service delivery across the African continent. E-government services refers to the process of providing technology-enabled public services. With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion people by 2050, nearly one-quarter of the world’s population, countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo will need to strengthen their government and infrastructure to manage the administration of critical services. As the middle class continues to expand, so will the demand for access to everyday services such as healthcare, renewing a driver’s license, and filing tax returns. This report highlights the potential for growth in African markets through e-governance and the importance having strong policies and frameworks in place to secure data. Additionally, the report offers case studies on Estonia, Canada, and India, three countries that have made tremendous commitment to bridging the gap between citizens and government through digital service delivery. With key recommendations for institutions ranging from African governments and regional bodies to DFIs and private sector companies, it is clear that each have an important role to play in the digitization of public services in Africa.
Topic:
Government, Markets, Economy, Business, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Africa

725. The missing piece: Political parties are critical to democracy in Africa

Author:
Santiago Stocker, Patrick Quirk, and Dan Scaduto
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In 2024, as many as seventeen countries across Africa, with a total population of nearly 300 million people, will hold national elections. These electoral processes are consequential because whether they are free, fair, and transparent will help determine if the troubling trend in several countries across the continent of democratic regression, military coups, or political instability worsens—or ebbs and begins to reverse, as was recently demonstrated in Senegal. The stakes are clearly high in these contests, which will occur in the so-called year of elections wherein more than four billion people globally are eligible to cast ballots. While the elections are important to Africa’s democratic trajectory, they are not single-handedly determinative of it. Strong and institutionalized political parties are also key to the future of democracy on the continent; however, policymakers have not afforded this key institution much attention or associated resources. For example, the US’s national security strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa does not reference strengthening political parties despite the document’s emphasis on democracy promotion. Further, the Biden administration’s Summits for Democracy—the third of which took place in March 2024—have not included commitments from participating governments (the United States included) to strengthen political parties. Robust political parties inform whether a political system delivers for citizens, provide a key link between citizens and their government, and foster measurable resilience against democratic erosion. For these and other reasons, therefore, political parties as a core institution of democracy will help chart the continent’s future, both in terms of freedom and prosperity. This piece analyzes the state of political parties in sub-Saharan Africa and uses Atlantic Council Freedom and Prosperity Indexes data and other sources to show why parties are essential to democratic progress. It examines this argument through four case studies and concludes with a path forward for re-centering democracy assistance work in Africa to shore up this critical component.
Topic:
Elections, Political Parties, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Africa and East Africa

726. Intentionally vague: How Saudi Arabia and Egypt abuse legal systems to suppress online speech

Author:
Dina Sadek, Layla Mashkoor, Iain Robertson, and Andy Carvin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Egypt and Saudi Arabia are weaponizing vaguely written domestic media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws to target and suppress dissent, opposition, and vulnerable groups. Political leaders in Egypt and Saudi Arabia often claim that their countries’ judicial systems enjoy independence and a lack of interference, a narrative intended to distance the states from the real and overzealous targeting and prosecution of critics. Such claims can be debunked and dismissed, as the Egyptian and Saudi governments have had direct involvement in establishing and implementing laws that are utilized to target journalists and human rights defenders. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were selected as case studies for this report because of their status as among the most frequently documented offenders in the region when it comes to exploiting ambiguously written laws to target and prosecute journalists, critics, activists, human rights defenders, and even apolitical citizens. The two countries have consolidated power domestically, permitting them to utilize and bend their domestic legal systems to exert control over the online information space. Punishments for those targeted can involve draconian prison sentences, travel bans, and fines, which result in a chilling effect that consequently stifles online speech and activities, preventing citizens from discussing political, social, and economic issues. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia enacted media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws with ambiguous language and unclear definitions of legal terms, allowing for flexible interpretations of phrases such as “false information,” “morality,” or “family values and principles.” The laws in both countries also loosely define critical terms like “terrorism,” thereby facilitating expansive interpretations of what constitutes a terrorist crime. Further, anti-terror laws now include articles that connect the “dissemination of false information” with terrorist acts. This vague and elastic legal language has enabled the Egyptian and Saudi regimes to prosecute peaceful citizens on arbitrary grounds, sometimes handing out long prison sentences or even death sentences, undermining respect for the rule of law in the two countries. This report explores the development of media, cybercrime, and counterterrorism laws in both countries, and demonstrates through case studies how Saudi Arabia and Egypt weaponize the laws to prosecute opposition figures and control narratives online. This report examines the relationship between criminal charges tied to one’s professional activities or online speech and how those charges can trigger online smear campaigns and harassment. In cases that involve women, gender-based violence is often used to harm a woman’s reputation. Though a direct correlation between judicial charges and online harassment cannot be ascertained, these case studies suggest that dissidents are likely to face online harm following legal persecution, even after they are released.
Topic:
Human Rights, Internet, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Disinformation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

727. On the Role of Local Government in Promoting Peace and Political-Environmental Sustainability

Author:
Kim Noach
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The paper discusses the rising power of local government and its ability to independently create and/or advance foreign relations in order to promote peace and good neighborly relations. One of the prominent areas in which local government engages and cooperates with others today is the environmental and climate field, notably in light of the foot-dragging of nation-states around these issues. Given this reality, the paper examines whether relationships and cooperation on the environment might be built between local authorities when their respective nation-states maintain no relations or only cold ones, or are in ongoing conflict. The paper analyses three theoretical axes: 1) the rising political power of local authorities vis-à-vis their nation-states, and as significant actors in global diplomacy; 2) growing local involvement with environmental problems; and 3) the promotion of environmental peacebuilding. The paper analyses the feasibility of joining these axes, and gives relevant examples, focussing on the Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian space. The main argument arising from the analysis is that local government has the tools and the effective opportunity to advance environmental cooperation as a stimulus to making peace; and further, that processes of this sort are particularly important when there is no political horizon. While Israel and its region are indeed the focus of this paper’s examination of local government and its potential for building relationships, the general insights derived are applicable to other regions of conflict.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Peace, Sustainability, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

728. An International Peace Conference in the Aftermath of the Israel-Hamas War

Author:
Arie Kacowicz
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip might evolve in the next few weeks into its ‘third stage’, following the aerial bombardment and the massive ground operation undertaken by the IDF into a low-intensity warfare and the establishment of buffer zones with or without a limited Israeli military presence in the enclave. The way the war is being prosecuted will determine the range of political options in its aftermath. Despite the reluctance of the current Israeli government to engage in any substantial long-term political discussion about the “day after” in terms of any significant blueprints or scenarios, it is imperative to draw a coherent road map regarding the feasible diplomatic options for the immediate and long-term perspectives regarding Israel’s exit from Gaza in the aftermath of the war, including the political resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Taking into consideration the lack of political willingness and/or ability of both Israeli and Palestinian leaderships to advance peace after the war, the dire situation in the Gaza Strip, and the international and domestic political repercussions for several key actors (including the United States, Egypt, and Jordan), this paper examines the possible role and functions that an International Peace Conference (IPC) might fulfil in granting domestic and international legitimacy and the drawing of a coherent road map leading to de-escalation, stabilization, demilitarization, reconstruction, and governance of the Gaza Strip in the immediate term. Moreover, any IPC should also address the larger political issue regarding the ultimate diplomatic resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the form of the fulfillment of UNGA Resolution 181 (1947) and the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian State in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, following UNSC Resolutions 242 (1967), 338 (1973),1515 (2003), 1850 (2008), and 2334 (2016). The policy paper draws on historical precedents from other conflicts, as well as reflecting on examples and experiences from the Arab-Israeli conflict, first and foremost the relevant and successful example of the Madrid Conference of October 1991. The major insight to be drawn is that an IPC is a necessary but not sufficient political diplomatic ingredient in the road map leading to the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip in the aftermath of the war in the immediate term, as well as to peace negotiations towards the peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian State alongside Israel.
Topic:
Negotiation, Peace, Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

729. Palestinian Elections: A Vital Step Toward a Stable Political Settlement

Author:
Ephraim Lavie
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
A political settlement to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians once Hamas is weakened, and after an intermediate stage in which a reconstituted Palestinian Authority is established with the promise of a real political horizon, is a vital Israeli interest. Achieving this goal requires the election of a pragmatic Palestinian leadership that is deemed legitimate by the Palestinian public and is therefore able to realize the vision of a viable Palestinian state and a stable political settlement that provides security for Israel. In order to prevent the election of extremists opposed to a political settlement, legitimate restrictions must be placed on the individuals and groups running for the post of president and for membership in the legislative council. These limitations will be based on the three conditions that the Quartet countries laid out for Hamas after its victory in the 2006 elections: abandoning the path of terrorism, recognizing Israel, and affirming the previous agreements it signed with the PLO. The elections must take place in the context of an advanced political process offering hope to the Palestinian people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and increasing their support for a settlement approach. To that end, Israel will have to declare its commitment to a political process designed to result in a two-state solution, and adopt confidence-building measures that demonstrate its intent to reach a political settlement, including a halt of construction in the settlements. At the same time, the international community, led by the United States and the European Union, will have to guarantee their recognition of a Palestinian state. The United States will also help train the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatuses, contribute to the development of its economy, and promote reforms in government institutions. Israel and the international community must lay the groundwork for orderly, internationally supervised elections in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip that will ensure the election of a suitable national leadership for the Palestinian people. Having won the trust of the people, such a leadership will enjoy legitimacy and be able to promote a stable settlement with Israel. It will also contribute, over time, to strengthening the moderate elements in society and weakening extremist, religious, and nationalist opposition elements.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Negotiation, Peace, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

730. Climate-Political Migration in Israel and Palestine

Author:
Shahar Shiloach
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The policy paper presents a critical analysis of the phenomenon known as “climate migration,” focusing on the Israel-Palestine region. It also highlights the tension between human rights and freedom of mobility, on the one hand, and security on, the other, within the context of regional cooperation. The document urges a just policy in resource allocation and freedom of movement in the region in order to protect human rights, preserve natural assets, bolster community and political stability, and prevent political unrest.
Topic:
Climate Change, Human Rights, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

731. Hydropolitics in the Middle East

Author:
Elianne Shewring
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Water scarcity in the Middle East poses a formidable challenge, with far-reaching implications for the region’s ecological balance, socio-economic stability, and security. This policy paper examines Israel’s water policy through an analysis of four case studies, beginning with the Madrid Conference of 1991, and followed by an evaluation of Israel’s bilateral relations with Palestine, Jordan, and Turkey. Three key geopolitical objectives are identified for Israel: securing domestic water resources, fostering Israel’s integration in the region, and promoting long term regional resilience. Hydropolitics emerges as a pragmatic approach to address the complex interplay of interests and grievances surrounding water management in the Middle East, and offers opportunities for dialogue, trust-building, and sustainable resource management. Drawing on historical lessons of hydropolitical initiatives in the region and considering the unique socio-political Middle Eastern landscape, this paper proposes new insights to advance Israel’s objectives and enhance regional stability.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Hydropolitics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

732. A Vision for Regional – International Partnership for Gaza Rebuilding and Palestinian Economic Leap

Author:
Yitzhak Gal and Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The immense extent of destruction in the Gaza Strip caused by the 2023-2024 Gaza War, requires massive rebuilding. This paper sets a vision of a long-term economic rebuilding plan, which is aimed at ending the humanitarian crisis and creating a functioning and sustainable economy. The rebuilding of the Gazan economy, and the Palestinian economy at large, should be planned and designed as part of an international-regional political and economic vision of stabilizing, strengthening and improving Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab relations, in the broader context of strengthening stability and prosperity in the Middle East.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Political stability, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

733. Inclusive Foreign Policy in Israel – Trends and Processes from a Gender Perspective

Author:
Orni Livny
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Gender equality and women’s rights are consensual values across parties and political agendas in Western democracies, of which Israel has always been proud to be a part. However, Israel’s 37th government, which is the most religious and conservative in the country’s history, set Israel back on the gender issue. Yet, the new government’s weakening of the female voice can also be an opportunity for change: The struggle for adequate representation of women in decision-making processes, which previously only troubled the limited communities of women’s organizations, became a core issue in the public discourse and expanded the awareness that gender equality and women’s rights are fundamental values of democracy. It is not a struggle only of women nor of one political camp or another, but a central part of liberal democracy. This policy paper, written in collaboration with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES), examines the concepts of inclusive and feminist foreign policy and seeks to suggest elements of these concepts that Israeli policymakers may adopt, whether in the short term or the long run.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Women, Feminism, Decision-Making, Inclusion, and Gender
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

734. The Gini Trade Index: What Can We Learn from A New Trade Indicator?

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of capturing the different distribution of trade values across firm characteristics and across countries. The new indicator replicates the well-known features of the traditional Gini Index, a widely used metric for the skewness of several socioeconomic indicators, in particular income inequality. The Policy Brief calculates the Gini Trade Index for all EU member states and contrasts the case of Slovakia and Cyprus, the EU countries situated at the opposite ends of the Gini Trade Index. The paper finds that the GTI has increased over time in most EU countries and offers a tentative range of optimal GTI values. The final section offers several examples of trade policy initiatives that can reduce trade concentration and lead to greater participation of small and medium enterprises in global trade.
Topic:
European Union, Trade, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe, Cyprus, and Slovakia

735. Regulating the Working Conditions of Platform Work: What Can We Learn from EU Member States?

Author:
Oscar Guinea, Elena Sisto, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Policymakers in Estonia, France, Greece, and Spain share the common objective of enhancing the working conditions of platform workers. However, variations in their labour markets, legal frameworks, and political landscapes have led to four distinct approaches in achieving this goal. Predominantly, the Spanish regulation has been geared towards attempting to reclassify platform workers from self-employed to employees. In contrast, the regulatory strategies in France and Greece have focused on retaining the sector within the realm of independent work, while simultaneously improving the working conditions of platform workers. Estonia adopted a broader perspective, emphasising the enhancement of working conditions for all freelancers, not exclusively those categorised as platform workers. This Policy Brief offers a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of the regulatory frameworks governing platform work in four European countries. The comparative analysis draws upon research conducted by the OECD and the World Economic Forum (WEF) on the principles of good regulation. Adapting this research to the context of digital platforms, three key principles for assessing the regulation of working conditions on these platforms were identified: (i) the consistency with the policy objective of improving the working conditions of platform workers; (ii) the feasibility of implementing the regulatory requirements; (iii) the presence of regulatory dialogue and appeal mechanisms. The evaluation of the four countries’ regulations against the three outlined principles offers valuable insights into the regulation of platform work. In Spain, the primary aim of the regulation regarding platform workers was not solely the improvement of working conditions but predominantly the reclassification of platform workers from self-employed to employees. This distinction is crucial, as platform workers highly value the benefits of self-employment, such as access to work, income opportunities, flexibility, and autonomy. Evidence presented in this study suggests that a majority of Spanish delivery workers preferred to maintain their self-employed status, while only about one-third expressed a desire to be classified as employees. Moreover, the Spanish regulation is characterised by a broad formulation of the conditions defining employment for digital delivery workers. This lack of specificity has led to an uncertain application of the regulation, with digital platforms adopting diverse strategies to achieve compliance. Ultimately, the Spanish regulatory framework has been marred by a profound disregard for the interests of, and a notable lack of communication with, those directly impacted by the regulation: the digital platforms and the platform workers. Greece has demonstrated that it is possible to enhance working conditions for platform workers while preserving the advantages of self-employment. The Greek regulation mandates that digital platforms adhere to the same welfare, health, and safety obligations for platform workers as they would for employees. Additionally, Greece has established clear criteria to define the presumption of self-employment for platform workers. This clarity offers legal certainty and enabled platform workers to accurately assess their employment status. Consequently, there has been a notable reduction in court cases regarding the classification of platform workers. France has progressively developed a comprehensive legal framework that has systematically enhanced the rights of platform workers. This development culminated in six pivotal agreements, addressing some of the most challenging aspects of working conditions on digital platforms, such as account deactivation and minimum revenue. These agreements were reached under the auspices of the Autorité des Relations Sociales des Plateformes d’Emploi (ARPE), a public entity instrumental in facilitating effective social dialogue between digital platforms and trade unions. The establishment of clear administrative procedures governing the negotiations within ARPE has been crucial in formulating measures that digital platforms can effectively implement. Estonia’s primary focus is on ensuring adequate working conditions for all freelancers, including platform workers. A considerable number of platform workers in Estonia engage in a contract-for-services (töövõtuleping) with digital platforms. This contract offers a social safety net, including unemployment benefits, sick pay, and healthcare services, while retaining the self-employed status of platform workers. Moreover, this framework provides clarity regarding the rights and responsibilities of both platform workers and digital platforms, facilitating the implementation of a clear and unambiguous regulatory system.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

736. EU Autonomy, the Brussels Effect, and the Rise of Global Economic Protectionism

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Brussels Effect, once emblematic of the EU’s alleged influence in shaping global regulations, has now become a factor contributing to global regulatory fragmentation. The EU must recalibrate its trajectory towards a liberal and rules-based trading order, prioritising widespread regulatory liberalisation to counteract the risks of global protectionism and regulatory spirals. A holistic approach, both internally and globally, is crucial to prevent regulatory and subsidy spirals on a global scale. This recalibration is essential to keep global markets open and enhance the EU’s own economic and technological competitiveness. In response to the 2008 financial crises, the EU underwent a shift in its approach to global trade, transitioning towards Strategic Autonomy. However, this gradual move away from a liberal global trade order has led to increased regulatory burdens and regulatory fragmentation, impacting businesses within and beyond the EU. The Brussels Effect, as denoted in this paper, highlights the EU’s signalling effect on other governments in considering and implementing regulations. This effect has contributed to increased trade restrictiveness and regulatory fragmentation globally. The EU’s insistence on “autonomy” and “European values” not only empowers others to follow suit, contributing to the rise in global protectionism, but also contradicts the EU’s historical support for open trade principles and its commitment to a highly competitive social market economy. A wealth of EU regulatory data reveals a stagnation and, in many cases, a regression in regulatory cooperation within the Single Market. This is evident from rising trade restrictiveness and a tendency towards increased legal fragmentation instead of convergence across the EU. The evolving regulatory acquis of the EU, coupled with insufficient cooperation and stalled trade agreements, poses risks beyond its borders. The EU’s paradigm shift towards autonomy contributes to global regulatory spirals and protectionist measures, particularly evident in services trade. Despite the EU’s historical commitment to harmonisation and liberalisation, many sectors, such as transport and logistics, telecoms, and digital services, have witnessed the imposition of new laws and rules that hinder trade. With the EU’s share of global GDP expected to decrease to 9% by 2050, there is a critical need for EU governments to enhance its regulatory capabilities and foster innovation. To wield influence in global economic diplomacy, EU policymakers must prioritise policies that unleash the collective ingenuity of individuals and businesses that help to maintain high levels of productivity, competitiveness, and prosperity.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Economy, Autonomy, Protectionism, and WTO
Political Geography:
Europe

737. German Industrial Competitiveness and the Metaverse

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robert Baker
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The metaverse is the next iteration of the internet as an immersive, 3D, virtual, shared world where activities can be carried out with the help of extended reality services. But it is much more than headsets and virtual games. The metaverse is increasingly conceptualised in tandem with other advanced technologies, including AI, IoT, automation, and blockchain. Combined, these Industrie 4.0 innovations will be at the centre of German productivity growth over the next decade. The IMF and the OECD both expect Germany to be the worst-performing leading economy in the world in 2023. Beyond recent shocks, German competitiveness is being “steadily eroded” by structural factors like “rising labour costs and a lack of digitisation” (Arnold, 2023). In this context of sclerotic growth, immersive technologies show much promise. The economic dimension of the new Digital Strategy should be guided by three simple “I’s” – immersive, industrial productivity, and internationalisation of German technologies. Specifically, the metaverse is driving productivity gains in manufacturing, engineering, financial services and retail – it could add €71 billion to German GDP by 2035. As well as enhancing the productivity of existing operations, immersive technologies and smart factories can enable the reshoring of profitable activities back to the German economy, particularly in technology and engineering. But these economic gains are not inevitable. Neglecting immersive technologies would have a significant effect on Germany’s remaining competitive advantages. For example, late adoption of the metaverse and digital twins by the German auto industry would lead to a 10% loss in exports, equating to more than €12 billion each year. The costs of late adoption are only underscored by the current salience of global competition. US firms have a strong track record of successfully integrating internet products into industry, while China and its own technology giants are developing strategic initiatives to capitalise on the metaverse. While much of the metaverse remains under development, companies are already showcasing a range of commercial partnerships and innovative use cases. German companies like Siemens are at the forefront of digital twins which allow automakers and other manufactures to replicate their physical facilities in virtual worlds, drawing on real-time data and simulations to optimise their operations. In insurance, the same digital twins are facilitating underwriting and expedited claims via remote monitoring. Meanwhile, in medical devices and healthcare, a metaverse of medical technology and AI (MeTAI) is facilitating the refinement of AI-based medical practices. This is the future of medical imaging technology, diagnosis, and therapy.
Topic:
European Union, Digital Economy, Industry, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

738. How Huawei Weathered the Storm: Resilience, Market Conditions or Failed Sanctions?

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robin Baker
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Huawei is exhibiting stoic resilience in the face of US sanctions, economic downturns, and the slow pace of 5G investments. There is a narrative that the company has been propped up by the Chinese government, but the key to Huawei’s resilience is multifaceted. Through pre-emptive stockpiling and ingenuity, the company has continued to fulfil its base station orders and defend its market shares abroad. Concurrently, Huawei has made an autonomous business decision to reinvest its earnings and intensify R&D to secure its supply chains against political risks and diversify into new business areas. Successful forays into semiconductors, cloud services and energy grids have also been facilitated by a capital structure that lends itself to long-term planning. Huawei’s survival is not necessarily a lesson in the futility of sanctions to stifle technological progress. However, it does show that muddled political objectives and inconsistent implementation will yield potentially contrary outcomes. At the same time, factors that contribute to Huawei’s resilience also highlight the infighting and vulnerabilities of listed firms like Mavenir, Ericsson and Nokia.
Topic:
Markets, Sanctions, Digital Economy, Resilience, and Huawei
Political Geography:
China, North America, and United States of America

739. Calling on the EU-US Trade and Technology Council: How to Deliver for the Planet and the Economy

Author:
Oscar Guinea, Vanika Sharma, Philipp Lamprecht, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief proposes the establishment of an agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US that covers machinery and electrical equipment. The initiative aims to increase the number of European and US conformity assessment bodies authorized to test and certify EU and US machinery and electrical equipment for exports into each other’s markets, without recognizing the equivalency or otherwise altering the product requirements in regulation, standards, or other normative documents on either side. While this study focuses on the economic effects of an agreement on conformity assessment that includes machinery and electrical equipment, the scope of such an agreement could potentially be extended to several additional product categories, particularly those that are subject to requirements for mandatory third-party conformity assessment in both the EU and the US. The increase in the number of conformity assessment bodies is expected to reduce the costs and the time required to demonstrate conformity. If this policy succeeds as expected in achieving a reduction in trade costs between 2 and 6 percent, US exports to the EU are projected to increase between US$ 11 billion and US$ 32.5 billion while EU exports to the US are estimated to grow by between US$ 13.8 billion and US$ 42.2 billion. In percentage terms, US firms are anticipated to experience a larger increase in exports of machinery and electrical equipment than their EU counterparts. The increase in trade flows as a result of this agreement is estimated to be larger than the rise in trade flows achieved in other Free Trade Agreements signed by the EU or the US. Moreover, as an increasing number of EU regulations begin to mandate third-party conformity assessment, US firms will increasingly benefit from this agreement when exporting to the EU. Given China’s status as the largest supplier of machinery and electrical equipment to both the EU and the US, the implementation of an EU-US agreement on conformity assessment would not only improve conditions for transatlantic trade but also lead to reduced trade dependence for the EU and the US on China. The reduction in trade costs between the EU and the US on machinery and electrical equipment due to the agreement could lower Chinese exports to the EU and the US by between US$ 6.5 billion and US$ 19.4 billion. Importantly, machinery and electrical equipment are crucial inputs for some of the key technologies in which the EU and the US Administrations have identified trade dependencies on China. However, in contrast with other policies aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese imports, an agreement on conformity assessment for machinery and electrical equipment will not require public subsidies or impose any financial burden on taxpayers. This agreement also has the potential to benefit the environment. Machinery and electrical equipment are essential inputs for green technologies. Therefore, a reduction in the cost and time of conformity assessment in these industries will accelerate the adoption of green technologies. An agreement on conformity assessment between the EU and the US covering green goods and clean technologies could increase transatlantic exports between US$ 3.1 billion and US$ 9.2 billion. While this increase in exports is significant, broadening the scope of the agreement to include the entirety of machinery and electrical equipment, rather than just a subset, is projected to lead to trade effects eight times larger. Moreover, as green technologies rapidly evolve, an agreement on conformity assessment has the potential to serve as a dynamic instrument that evolves to accommodate future regulatory and economic developments on climate and the environment on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

740. Openness as Strength: The Win-Win in EU-US Digital Services Trade

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The discourse surrounding the EU’s supposed over-reliance on digital services imports from non-EU countries, particularly the US, has been a recurrent topic among some political circles. However, this viewpoint tends to oversimplify and misrepresent the nuanced and complex reality of the EU’s status within the global Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector and digitally enabled trade. A thorough analysis of trade data and trends clearly illustrates that the EU’s engagement with foreign (non-EU) digital services, notably from the US, represents a strategic economic advantage, bolstering Europe’s competitiveness and fostering productivity growth. Below we underline the critical importance of openness to foreign innovation and technology diffusion for the EU’s economic future.
Topic:
European Union, Digital Economy, Strategic Competition, Imports, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

741. ICT Beyond Borders: The Integral Role of US Tech in Europe’s Digital Economy

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Contrary to political assertions about the vulnerability of digital services provided by non-EU companies, the strong presence and sunk costs associated with US tech companies’ investments in data centres, skilled workforce development, and research facilities in Europe act as significant barriers to exit, highlighting the inherent symbiosis between US tech investments and Europe’s digital and non-digital sectors. These investments underscore a mutual inter-dependency that strengthens European economies, making the notion of “sudden cessation” of digital services by US companies implausible. Corporate data show a significant investment gap of approximately USD 1.36 trillion between US and EU ICT companies, attributing a competitive edge to US firms due to their heavy investment in ICT, cloud solutions, and R&D. Forecasted increases in ICT investments by US corporations outline a benchmark beyond reach for EU businesses. The notion of EU firms aligning with this growth path is rather fantastical, as it would call for immense government investment, ultimately draining financial resources from essential public services, such as healthcare, housing, and environmental policies. Substantial ICT investments across EU Member States together with a long-term commitment to the European market present an opportunity for the EU to leverage US continuous technological advancements, underscoring the potential for transatlantic collaboration to drive the EU’s digital transformation and innovation. EU-US partnerships not only fuel the EU’s digital transformation but also align with shared political values, reinforcing the significance of transatlantic collaboration in shaping a competitive and innovative digital future.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Digital Economy, Investment, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

742. Time to Rethink Export Controls for Strengthened US-EU Cooperation and Global Trade Rules

Author:
Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The escalation of broad export controls by the US, under the guise of national security and the aim to curb technological transfers to potential adversaries,[1] marks a new epoch of bureaucratic oversight. The US push for broad export controls also underscores a critical juncture in US-EU relations and global trade rules. Broad export restrictions not only challenge the very foundation of free trade but also contribute to the erosion of Western technology leadership.[2] Unilateral export controls may start strong but eventually lose effectiveness and become counterproductive,[3] pushing non-US companies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, to find alternatives to US components.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Regulation, Exports, Trade, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

743. Trading Up: An EU Trade Policy for Better Market Access and Resilient Sourcing

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Oscar du Roy, Elena Sisto, and Renata Zilli
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Europe’s competitiveness could be substantially improved by a trade policy that facilitates more trade and other forms of cross-border exchange. The evidence is clear: the EU trades less with the rest of the world than would be expected given the size of its economy. With 85 percent of global growth happening outside of the EU – and with an increasing share of all new technologies, innovations, patents, human capital, and R&D expenditure emerging in other parts of the world than Europe – the EU needs to find better ways to integrate with international markets. It is now becoming urgent for the EU to revive its international trade policy. Europe’s increasing detachment from global markets lead to two major economic concerns: deteriorating market access and less capability to build economic resilience. Market access can be defined as an export challenge, as EU firms face increasing trade barriers that hinder their ability to sell products and services abroad. These barriers ultimately limit the EU’s ability to scale up production, specialise, and increase R&D spending. Economic resilience is an import challenge. To become more resilient, the EU must diversify its sources of supply, particularly for critical raw materials, and secure a stable and frictionless access to foreign high-end goods, services, and technologies. The next five years present a critical opportunity for the EU to address the challenges limiting the contribution of international trade to EU’s competitiveness. This Policy Brief outlines seven trade policy recommendations that tackle the lack of market access and address the need for economic resilience. These policy recommendations are there for the EU to take: they are realistic and achievable. The EU has the power to make these seven policy recommendations a reality.
Topic:
Markets, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe

744. Keeping Up with the US: Why Europe’s Productivity Is Falling Behind

Author:
Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The European Union stands at a crossroads. For decades, the EU’s productivity growth has consistently lagged the United States, leading to slower growth in living standards and decline in global economic power. While short-term factors like the strong US fiscal expansion have widened the gap in nominal GDP growth in recent years, the fact is that Europe has trailed the US economic development for several decades and the root of the problem lies in deeper structural issues within the European economy. Four major forces fuel this productivity divide. Firstly, the EU’s investment in research and development (R&D) pales in comparison to the U.S., leading to fewer patents and a slower pace of technology-fuelled innovation. Secondly, Europe trails America in the stock and growth of intangible capital investments, which are crucial for adopting and diffusing new technologies that drive productivity. Thirdly, the EU market exhibits slower business creation and destruction compared to the US. This rigidity hinders the flow of resources towards the most productive firms. Lastly, despite boasting higher levels of trade openness, the EU attracts less Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) than the US, curbing its access to cutting-edge global technologies and expertise. To close the gap, European policymakers should implement a comprehensive strategy for faster productivity growth. The first step is turning up the dial on R&D spending, targeting 4-5 percent of GDP by 2040. Next, Europe should prioritise investments in intangible assets and lay down the digital infrastructure that will underpin future growth. Revitalising the single market is also crucial: reducing internal and external market barriers for services, the primary vehicle for trading intangible assets. Moreover, the EU should foster a market environment that encourages entrepreneurship and facilitate the entry and exit of firms so resources cascade towards the most productive sectors. By harnessing the strengths of the single market and implementing these recommendations, European policymakers can propel the EU towards a more competitive and prosperous future.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Productivity, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

745. Trade in the Great Sea: A Brief State of Play of EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations

Author:
Jan A. Micallef
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is a vibrant economic geography that could grow significantly. This paper reviews the trade relations between the EU and Southern Neighbourhood Countries (SNCs) – their history and the current status of the bilateral trade agreements. While these agreements have many similarities, there are also some differences in scale and scope. The paper also looks at the development of trade between the EU and SNCs and concludes that developments have generally been positive.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

746. The EU’s Trillion Dollar Gap in ICT and Cloud Computing Capacities: The Case for a New Approach to Cloud Policy

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Fredrik Erixon, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
An inward-looking EU approach to cloud computing and data policies risks stifling innovation and competitiveness by promoting domestic champions at the expense of accessing global cloud capabilities. Limiting market diversity and access to best-in-breed solutions could hinder digital transformation across sectors, raising costs and constraining growth opportunities. By contrast, a free trade approach to cloud offer guardrails and security but champions non-discriminatory cross-border and regulatory policies, yielding economic advantages by stimulating investments, fostering innovation, and enhancing competition. Unfortunately, some EU policymakers envision Europe building an independent ICT infrastructure, exemplified by initiatives like the European Alliance on Industrial Data, Edge and Cloud. This approach prioritises technological sovereignty, aiming not just to maintain European control over critical infrastructure and data but favouring localisation policies, including in AI and quantum computing. However, the approach is simply not going to work because the amount of resources that are needed for “pure-EU firms” to rise up as significant competitors to global leaders is so large that it would drain other sectors of investments and human capital. The investment gap between the EU and the US in ICT and cloud-related sectors, totalling some USD 1.36 trillion, presents a significant challenge for native European companies. To catch up by 2030, 2040, and 2050, European technology companies would need to substantially increase annual investments, ranging from approximately USD 157 billion to USD 1.2 trillion annually, representing 0.8 percent to 6.4 percent of the EU’s GDP. This would – hypothetically – require a significant commitment of resources. Despite recent efforts such as state aid for R&D in cloud and edge computing, the scale of investment needed far exceeds the current levels, underscoring the urgency for an open and non-discriminatory EU policy approach to bolster Europe’s position in the rapidly growing and technologically changing digital landscape. There are different components to a successful cloud policy, including policies to spur adoption and cross-border cloud integration in the EU, and more investment in R&D. EU policymakers should adopt a dynamic perspective rather than fixating on static market shares, and pursue policies that prioritise innovation and technological advancement over merely seeking to catch up on current technologies. The cloud market and the broader Internet market are going through rapid changes, leading to new services and new competition. A future-oriented approach to cloud policy advocates for policies that foster competition, drive technological progress, and enable interoperability, all of which align with the dynamic nature of cloud services and global markets.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Digital Economy, Cloud Computing, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

747. Reinventing Europe’s Single Market: A Way Forward to Align Ideals and Action

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
It is essential for EU institutions and Member State governments to shift their focus from the abstract concept of the “Single Market” to the concrete objective of “legal harmonisation in the EU.” This transition represents a strategic realignment towards more pragmatic policymaking. Adopting a 28th regime to address national regulation discrepancies would align with this goal and enhance the Single Market’s effectiveness in promoting economic growth and competitiveness. Given the EU’s ongoing loss of relative global economic clout, it is crucial to establish an ambitious timeline for implementing the most critical Single Market reforms. The Letta Report serves as a wake-up call to revitalise the EU’s Single Market, emphasising the need for decisive action. Its vision largely hinges on legal harmonisation within Europe, building on early efforts to liberalise markets and establish a truly integrated European market. Despite efforts, “integration fatigue” remains a significant challenge due to legal fragmentation across European economies. Previous reports, from the Cecchini Report in 1992 to the Europe 2020 Strategy, have highlighted persistent issues like regulatory divergences and declining political support for market integration. Despite numerous proposals, progress has been limited, and many challenges persist or have worsened (see Section 2). An analysis of EU reports reveals a shift in policy priorities over time. Initially, there was a strong focus on liberalisation and market opening, with less attention given to state aid and industrial policymaking. The Letta Report highlights the importance of regulatory convergence and harmonisation, reflecting a deeper understanding and recognition of the drivers of EU competitiveness. The rise of nationalism and a shift towards “Strategic Autonomy” within the EU have hindered crucial market reforms. This highlights the importance of aligning laws across Member States to strengthen and reinforce EU’s economic resilience and international competitiveness (see Section 3). EU institutions and Member State governments should set specific goals for “legal harmonisation in the EU.” This shift would address real challenges faced by businesses and citizens, and build political will for necessary reforms. Prioritising legal harmonisation would enhance internal cohesion and align national laws with Union-wide goals. An actionable roadmap – potentially with a 2028 deadline – is crucial to address the substantial gap between ambitious EU strategies and Europe’s economic realities. (see Section 4). Implementing sector-specific and horizontal policies in a new regulatory regime would improve cross-border operations and competitiveness. The Letta Report advocates for a European Code of Business Law to establish a unified regulatory framework, introducing a 28th legal regime to address national regulation discrepancies. Extending this regime to include tax and labour market policies would significantly enhance cross-border operations. The EU and Member State governments can eliminate substantial internal barriers by prioritising key horizontal policies affecting all businesses, such as fragmented tax laws, labour market policies, and social security systems. Simplifying and harmonising these policies on the basis of the facilitation of four freedoms is crucial for unlocking the Single Market’s potential for businesses and workers, boosting the EU’s global competitiveness. Allowing coalitions of willing countries to advance in certain areas of legal integration provides a viable solution to the long-standing Single Market “fatigue”. By enabling smaller groups of Member States to pursue integration in specific areas, the EU can bypass the constraints imposed by rigid voting requirements and achieve greater agility, accountability, and acceptance in EU law-making. This approach not only fosters flexibility but also upholds the fundamental principles and objectives of the EU. To ensure the integrity of the EU legal order and prevent unjustified barriers or discrimination against non-participating members, it is essential to establish safeguards and oversight mechanisms. These measures would maintain cohesion within the Union while allowing for progressive legal integration among willing Member States.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

748. Russia’s Influence and Disinformation Campaign in Armenia

Author:
David A. Grigorian
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Often-overlooked developments in Armenia show how Western policy makers are failing to recognize and counteract the growing sophistication of Russia’s propaganda machine. There is much the West can do. Intelligence authorities can start sharing more information about Russia’s influence operations. We need media that can report with more knowledge from the region. Working more closely with the pro-Western opposition, Brussels and Washington, D.C. can help shape an agenda that is not just offering better conditions for Armenia but also leads to more credibility in a Western-oriented agenda. Finally, it is important for the West to acknowledge their own blunders over the settlements between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which led to continued ethnic cleansing.
Topic:
Propaganda, Disinformation, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia and Armenia

749. Strategies for Assessing Triple Nexus Initiatives and Integrating Peace Aspects – Insights from Niger

Author:
Christina Plesner Volkdal
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:
The Triple Nexus approach represents a paradigm shift in how international organizations, including UNICEF, address complex crises that span humanitarian, development, and peace dimensions. UNICEF must navigate the delicate balance between adhering to the humanitarian principles of neutrality, impartiality, independence, and humanity while engaging in development and peace-building activities that may require aligning with government policies and engaging in politically sensitive contexts. There is a significant challenge in developing metrics and methodologies to measure the synergies and outcomes of the Triple Nexus approach effectively. This includes quantifying how initiatives contribute to peace interacting with humanitarian and development outcomes. UNICEF's approach in Niger, implementing food security policies to respond to humanitarian needs while simultaneously operating as a development program, holds the potential to positively impact peace in the region, thus aligning with the Triple Nexus framework.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, Food Security, Crisis Management, and UNICEF
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

750. Introduction: Marxifying IR, IRifying Marxism

Author:
Faruk Yalvaç and Jonathan Joseph
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Although the neglect of Marxism has been a pervasive characteristic of IR theory, there has been a marked revival of interest in Marxism. Marx’s materialist insights into the general historical development of societies, as well as his critique of capitalism and political economy, have served as alternative starting points for different critical approaches to IR and offers a welcome alternative to neorealism, constructivism, and poststructuralism that have dominated IR for several decades. Marxism provides a redefinition of IR by focusing on changes in material circumstances, historical conditions, and society instead of assuming unchanging and fixed structures of anarchy or the state. Marx’s analysis and insights into the dynamics of international relations have become even more important given the ongoing crisis of neoliberal capitalism, the rise of authoritarianism, right-wing nationalist populisms, and the racial and gendered subordinations accompanying them pointing to the importance of Marxifying IR and IRifying Marxism.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Socialism/Marxism, Critical Realism, Ecofeminism, Political Marxism, and Gramscianism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

751. Quo Vadis, Historical International Relations? Geopolitical Marxism and the Promise of Radical Historicism

Author:
Lauri Von Pfaler and Benno Teschke
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
John Maclean’s 1988 call “Marxism and IR: A Strange Case of Mutual Neglect” has generated a rich bounty of Marxist studies and paradigms in International Relations (IR). This cross-pollination merged in the 1990s with the “historical turn” and shaped the sub-fields of International Historical Sociology and International Political Economy. But has it left its mark on how IR is practised today? We argue that while Marxism has spoken significantly to the discipline, mainstream IR, even Historical IR, has been largely impervious to Marxist arguments, drawing the standard charge of economism and structuralism. Rectifying these critiques, we suggest that conventional historical studies of “the international” remain methodologically and substantively impoverished. We exemplify this by showing how leading Historical IR studies of “systems change” fail to explain the inside/outside and public/private differentiations constitutive of the modern international order and to integrate the “levels of analysis” they presuppose. We further argue that this rejection has been facilitated by influential Marxist IR paradigms, which ultimately privilege structuralism over historicism: While Neo-Gramscians initially mobilised “historicism” to dissolve claims about the “sameness” of international relations across time and space, the approach became identified with the reified master-category of “hegemony”. Uneven and Combined Development, in turn, has gravitated towards matching Neo-realism’s claim to theoretical universality by insisting on transhistorical model-building and nomological “grand theory”. Both approaches remain over-sociologised and fail to address international politics. Drawing on radically historicist Political Marxism, this article shows how its substantive socio-political premises explain the historical formation of the contemporary international order and re-unite the “levels of analysis” theoretically to provide a framework for non-reductionist and non-economistic accounts of historical international relations. This requires an answer to the agentic challenge of Neo-Classical Realism by reincorporating grand strategy, diplomacy, and international politics into a reformulated perspective of Geopolitical Marxism to track the full historicity of the making of international orders.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Socialism/Marxism, Sociology, Methods, Agency, Geopolicy, and Historicity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

752. The Long Shadow of Structural Marxism in International Relations: Historicising Colonial Strategies in the Americas

Author:
Samuel Parris and Armando Van Rankin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Over the past decades, Marxist-inspired approaches from the field of International Historical Sociology (IHS) have theorised the relationship between 16th and 17th Century European colonial expansion and the development of relations of production and economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic. In this article, we argue that such attempts – from Dependency Theory (DT), World-Systems Theory (WST), and Uneven and Combined Development (UCD) – are premised on a structuralist perspective which overextend the notion of capitalism and under examine the sphere of production, rendering divergent and distinct strategies of European colonialism a homogenous and under-historicised process. Embracing theoretical innovations from Geopolitical Marxism (GPM), we dispute this unitary logic of expansion, instead applying a radical historicist methodology to demonstrate that British and Spanish colonial strategies in the Americas (intra-imperial free trade vs. mercantilism) were shaped by nationally specific class relations (capitalism vs. feudalism/absolutism), generating unique patterns of settlement on the ground (mineral extraction vs. cash-crop production). Promoting historicism thus allows Marxist International Relations to better recognise "the 'making of' the international order" during the period of European colonial expansion from the 16th century onwards, and, in doing so, further understand its enduring legacies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, Socialism/Marxism, Colonialism, International Historical Sociology, and Radical Historicism
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, and North America

753. “Winning the Peace”: The Role of International Peace Settlements in the Creation of World Orders – A “Geopolitical Marxist” Perspective

Author:
Jack Edwards
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
For the discipline of International Relations (IR), the study of International Peace Settlements (IPS) for the organization of postwar international orders has thus far primarily been the purview of realist, liberal, and constructivist approaches. To date, Marxist approaches have tended to either ignore the significance of IPS in the formation of new global orders or have been inscribed into longer-term overarching processes – namely, the reified consequences of the development of capitalism. These proclivities have had the unwelcome effect of subsuming the role historical agents have played in the devising of international ordering strategies under preordained universal “laws of motion” and downplaying the broader efficacy of foreign policymaking in the building of world order. This paper proposes to rectify this Marxist lacuna by highlighting how adopting an approach that elaborates on the principles of Geopolitical Marxism (GPM) in IR can overcome these shortcomings. The paper argues that a radical historicist methodology for analysing these important world-historical junctures retrieves the significance of contextualized agency within the historical materialist tradition and overcomes the issues beholden to structuralist Marxist approaches.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Peace, Conference, International Order, Geopolitical Marxism, and Congress of Vienna
Political Geography:
Global Focus

754. Reconciling Tensions in the Analysis of Bourgeois Revolutions: A Critical Realist Approach

Author:
Klevis Kolasi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
When and how do agents consciously reproduce or unconsciously transform social structures? This inquiry is pivotal for advancing a theory of socio-historical development, particularly in addressing a key debate within International Historical Sociology (IHS) surrounding modern revolutions. This debate revolves around the tension between the “consequentialist” interpretation of bourgeois revolutions and the “revisionist” critiques, notably from the “historicist” wing of Political Marxism (PM). This article contends that the tension arises from an inadequate conceptualization of the agent-structure relationship. Drawing on Roy Bhaskar’s transformational model of social activity (TMSA) and critical realist philosophy of science, the article proposes a conceptual framework reconciling PM’s focus on class struggle to understand the historical specificity of capitalism with the role bourgeois revolutions historically and structurally played for the development of capitalism. Integrating Bhaskar’s framework with historical materialism-inspired debates on bourgeois revolutions, the paper suggests that agents’ unconscious actions can transform social structures amid social disintegration (“classic bourgeois revolutions”). Conversely, agents consciously seek to preserve and reproduce social structures, as seen in “passive revolutions”. This occurs when social structures, marked by inequality and hierarchies, are viewed as historical constructs rather than natural phenomena, particularly in the context of uneven and combined development of capitalism. This analysis contributes to ongoing IHS debates, enriches our comprehension of modern revolutions, and extends TMSA by empirically delineating circumstances wherein agents consciously uphold or unwittingly trigger the transformation of social structures.
Topic:
International Relations, Socialism/Marxism, Capitalism, Revolution, International Historical Sociology, and Radical Historicism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

755. The Rise and Decline of the Liberal World Order and the Multilateral Trade System: A Critical-Constructivist Synthesis to International Regime Analysis

Author:
Serdar Altay
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article devises an analytical framework that synthesizes neo-Gramscian and social constructivist perspectives to dissect international regimes amid global hegemonic shifts. It portrays regimes as intersubjective constructs with unique social purposes within the broader hegemonic fabric, shaped by dominant ideologies and power distributions. The study examines the transition of the trade regime from General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to World Trade Organization (WTO) through the Uruguay Round (1986-1994) and the Doha Round’s deadlock since 2001. The article posits that the Uruguay Round marked a pivotal hegemonic transformation, transitioning the regime from embedded liberalism to neoliberalism by transforming its social purpose, norms, and generative grammar. Yet, this shift, which precipitated a legitimacy crisis within the WTO and was exacerbated by the Doha Round’s failure to regenerate neoliberal hegemony with a fresh synthesis of free trade and sustainable development, arguably rendered the WTO directionless and contributed to the fragmentation of global trade governance amidst emerging regional pacts and varied ideological visions of economic liberalism.
Topic:
Liberalism, WTO, International Order, Critical Theory, Social Constructivism, and International Regimes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

756. How Has South Africa’s Membership of BRICS Intensified Uneven and Combined Development in the Country and Beyond?

Author:
Sinan Baran
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The recent African scramble has resulted in uneven and combined development (UCD) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) throughout the 21st century due to unequal exchange. South Africa plays a sub-imperial role in this scramble in SSA. It both exploits and is exploited. The mining industry in South Africa has attracted interest from colonial powers, English-speaking businesses, and foreign investors, making it a highly lucrative sector. Furthermore, most black South Africans have been employed in the mining industry since the late 19th century. Over the past 25 years, the African National Congress government has utilised the mining industry to achieve economic transformation through black economic empowerment policies. This study proposes that the mining sector in South Africa is responsible for the ongoing UCD, despite receiving new investments and empowerment policies. South Africa’s inclusion in BRICS has broadened its range of international partners beyond its traditional Western or African counterparts. However, South Africa’s decision to join the BRICS group in 2011 has not yet yielded the expected transformation in the country’s economy and growth. As a result, it is uncertain whether South Africa’s BRICS membership has addressed the country’s persistent problem of UCD. This study argues that South Africa’s BRICS membership has exacerbated UCD in the country. This study proposes that Trotsky’s UCD analytical framework is useful for analysing South Africa’s policy choice to join BRICS, which strengthens its sub-imperial role.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Mining, Industry, BRICS, Economic Transformation, Unequal Exchange, Sub-imperialism, and Transnational Capital
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

757. An Ecofeminist Contribution to the Debates on the Neoextractivist Development Model in Latin America

Author:
Esra Akgemci
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article presents a materialist ecofeminist critique of neoextractivism by highlighting its historical origins and elaborating its economic policy implications in Latin America. Three questions addressed are as follows: 1) How can materialist ecofeminism contribute to understanding the current dynamics of capitalist development in the Global South, 2) why (neo)extractivism hits women hardest, and 3) to what extent and how ecofeminist movements can shape a post-extractivist transition to a just and sustainable future. The article’s main argument is that exploitation and oppression in Latin America can be understood in terms of gender, race, and class and, therefore, require an intersectional analysis framework. Within this framework, post-extractivist alternatives in this region must incorporate an ecofeminist analysis to understand better how social expression systems (including sexism, white supremacy, and ecological crises) intersect and reinforce each other. In this framework, this study is intended to contribute to the growing literature and debate on the development and resistance dynamics of neoextractivism in Latin America, where long-standing racial and gender inequalities intersect with class inequalities.
Topic:
Development, Capitalism, Patriarchy, Materialism, Social Reproduction, Ecofeminism, and Neo-Developmentalism
Political Geography:
Latin America

758. Resistance and Change in Form and Content of International Law: A Third World Perspective on Commodity Form Theory of International Law

Author:
Muhammad Azeem
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Can Marxists, especially in the Third World, use international law for progressive social change? Responding to the Soviet Union's context and its jurisprudential challenges in constructing socialism, Pashukanis's seminal work on commodity form theory is nihilistic, assuming the very nature of form of international law as bourgeois with limited possibilities of radical change as its new content. European Marxism, on the other hand, in its context of revolutionary defeat and consequent postmodernist pessimism of cultural Marxism, either relies on Pashukanis's nihilistic position or a pragmatist and realist posture, insisting on staying within the law's bourgeois form and being content with social democracy. As opposed to this, Third World Approaches to International Law (TWAIL) scholars, while exploring the imperialist nature of international law and representing one variant of Third World Marxism, have been more optimistic, wanting to use international law to restrain and shield against powerful Western states, i.e., they believe that the content of Third World resistance can change the form of international law. This article deconstructs this class “content” of international law in the understanding of TWAIL and shows the postcolonial Third World states, and even in the yet to be independent states, were dominated by their dependent local elite, which had compromised by the ex-colonizers and had started blocking radical structural changes in Third World. Soon, the target of imperialism and the Third World elite became radical movements in the Third World, and this struggle of the marginalized shaped international law. Therefore, relying on the radical tradition of Third World Marxism and taking the right of self-determination as an example, this article argues that both the content and form of international law were simultaneously used, subverted, and changed in a dialectical and dynamic way by the resistance of the people of the Third World.
Topic:
International Relations, International Law, Socialism/Marxism, Resistance, Self-Determination, Third World Marxism, Western Marxism, and Soviet Official Marxism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

759. Protecting Free and Fair Elections: The Vital Role of Public Administration

Author:
Steve Hagerty, Valerie Lemmie, and Nancy Tate
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
Free and fair elections are at the heart of American democracy, and running elections is a core responsibility of public administrators in the United States. The early decades of the 21st Century have been characterized by declining public trust in our nation’s elections, unnecessary barriers to voting, foreign interference, and widespread disinformation. These issues led the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to include “Protect Electoral Integrity and Enhance Voter Participation” as one of our field’s Grand Challenges in November 2019. To assist the nation with this Grand Challenge, the Academy commissioned a team to conduct a review of electoral practices that can ensure free and fair elections through effective public governance and management. The Academy team developed a shared vision of election administration and identified leading practices for consideration by elected officials and election administrators. The team concluded that effective election administration consists of 3 major pillars: Voter experience, Election security, and Election workforce. The report is offered with the greatest respect for the work that election administrators do in support of a vital part of American democracy. It has been written for a broad audience, including citizens, elected officials, and election administrators.
Topic:
Security, Elections, Voting, and Public Administration
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

760. Irregular Migration from Palestine

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This paper aims to highlight the reality of Palestinian migrants and the challenges of exile under the prevailing circumstances faced by Palestinians amidst multiple crises, including political, economic, and deteriorating social conditions, leading to a fundamental deterioration of humanitarian situations, forcing them to leave their homeland due to difficult living conditions they cannot cope with. This paper also seeks to provide a broader perspective by shedding light on the phenomenon of migration in the Gaza Strip, which reports indicate is steadily increasing, not only in exploring the causes and motives but also by discussing its repercussions on the migrants themselves, attempting to address the risks associated with migration by tracing the reality of migrants and highlighting the challenges and crises they face from the moment they decide to leave the country and what they endure in their exile. In addition, the paper aims to provide recommendations, the most important of which is the creation of national plans aimed at enhancing national belonging among youth and promoting citizenship concepts, in addition to creating job opportunities and establishing a conducive environment that aligns with the aspirations of young people.
Topic:
Refugees, Citizenship, Youth, Humanitarian Crisis, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

761. What if…? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
At first glance, this publication appears to be a collection of Early Warning essays – they are, to some extent, but they should not be exclusively read as such. Conventional Early Warning systems have a much shorter time horizon – normally hours, perhaps months at most – than these scenarios, and they are solely mitigation mechanisms, that is to say they provide no insight into how the event they are warning of can be avoided. They are thus not an intellectual thought exercise, but solely an alarm bell. Our Dragon Kings in this volume provide insight into how they can be avoided, but they also challenge our assumptions in more ways than one. They are therefore awareness-raisers no matter how credible or plausible you will find them. Just reading them will have a readiness-increasing effect. (In fact, the more absurd you find them, the more pronounced this is because your mind will learn more when the emotion they generate is greater.) These scenarios can become even more useful, however, if you use them for simulation exercises in a team. You can use them as a blueprint for a wider scenario exercise, whether one wishes to adopt a blue or red team approach to them, and ask questions such as: how could this have been prevented, what would have to be done? What are alternative pathways of this scenario that are even worse, and how can we prevent those? The most important aspect is that every exercise of this kind must lead to some concrete policy steps. Merely thinking about improbable futures is never enough – doing something about them is what makes them a useful policy-tool. In that case, they lead to active, rather than passive, engagement with the content, foster collaboration, encourage innovation, practice decision-making, provide a space for failure and experimentation with alternative courses of action. It is precisely because of this that scenarios are a common feature in military education, but they work just as well in any other strategic context – provided, time and space is made for it. If yes, they contribute to increasing preparedness and readiness, and accelerate the response time to surprise. What’s more, generally engaging in fringe thinking about the future will strengthen these capabilities no matter what kind of surprise eventually occurs. Much like how vaccines teach the immune system, disruptive thinking strengthens our neural networks, making us more resilient for extreme situations.
Topic:
NATO, Natural Disasters, Elections, Crisis Management, Coup, UN Security Council, Biological Weapons, Resilience, Arctic Council, and Readiness
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iraq, Europe, India, Taiwan, Latin America, Nigeria, and Tunisia

762. The history of China’s future Lessons from the CIA

Author:
Dylan Levi King
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Predictions about China’s future made in the years since the Communist Party took power in 1949 have routinely cycled between two extremes of improbability: imminent collapse and indomitable ascent. These cycles came more slowly in the age before cable news and social media. The idea of the capture of the People’s Republic of China by Republic of China forces, or of the country tearing itself apart with political violence, held for years, before being wiped out by a popular impression of China’s meteoric rise and future economic domination.1 These cycles have now become supercharged for the attention economy. As one wave of forecasts of unstoppable lift-off and financial supremacy breaks, it is chased immediately by predictions of terminal economic dysfunction and social disintegration. For the expert, in danger of having their voice drowned out by amateur forecasters, it is difficult to inject the necessary rigour and nuance. For the layperson, it is hard to make any sense of the incessant deluge of contradictory and often extreme predictions. To wade into the forecast cycle is to risk being swept off one’s feet. To step away, and to simply avoid making any predictions is tempting, but it would be a grave error, given China’s economic gravity, immense population, status as a superpower and potential rival of NATO and allied countries. To get the future of the country wrong is to get the future of the planet wrong.
Topic:
History, Forecast, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Readiness
Political Geography:
China and Asia

763. Fly me to the moon: Why Europe needs to move into space

Author:
Samantha Cristoforetti and Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Outer space is experiencing a paradigm shift from exploration to exploitation, whereby orbits become more congested and contested than ever. NATO militaries are adapting not only to integrate space in military operations on Earth but also to operate in this domain. U.S. is leading the spacepower doctrinal evolution, while Europe holds important space capabilities but lags behind in certain key areas. Human space transportation is the new frontier that Europeans should address through civil-military cooperation.
Topic:
NATO, Space, Civil-Military Relations, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Space

764. How to write a strategy

Author:
Christopher M. Schnaubelt
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Writing a strategy is difficult because the purpose is to change the behavior of humans. The most common context for strategy is in the sphere of military activities: how to apply force in a manner that breaks the will of an enemy, causing that enemy to stop fighting. However, strategy can also be useful at less intense levels of conflict such as crisis management and stability operations. Indeed, strategy can be used for peaceful but competitive purposes such as government tax policy or corporate marketing of consumer products. This paper expresses strategy as a formula: Strategy = Ends + Ways + Means + Risk wherein Ends are the objectives or the “what” the strategy intends to accomplish; Ways are the strategic concepts/courses of action or the “how” that describes the methods of applying the means to attain the ends; and Means are the resources. Risk is the degree to which the Ends exceed the Ways + Means. The following steps should be used to write a strategy. They may be performed in a different order. In most cases, some of the steps will be repeated during the development process: • Estimate the development timeline: determine the deadlines for writing the strategy. • Develop understanding: gather information and relate it to conditions and actors. • Frame the problem( s) and opportunities: determine what is the question or problem to be solved. Questions should address internal context for the strategy development process as well as the external problem context. • Draft proposed ends: envision what is to be accomplished. • Determine the ways and means: compare the contemporary problem frame with the vision of what should be achieved, ascertain the set of resources that are currently available (or can reasonably be made available within the necessary time frame), and identify how these resources can be applied to produce the desired end state. • Consider risk: assess whether the ends, ways, and means are in sustainable balance. The degree to which the perceived cost of Ways + Means exceeds the perceived value of the Ends is Risk. • Reframe the problem: consider the likely evolution of the situation in light of proposed actions. • Finalize the statement of Ends, Means, and Ways: write the strategy using the steps in this list as an outline. • Monitor strategy implementation and effect; revise as necessary: assess whether the strategy is being properly implemented, is producing the expected effects, and progressing adequately towards the desired ends. If not, revise the strategy or the plans and/or activities that implement the strategy.
Topic:
NATO, Military Affairs, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

765. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee* How Allies adapt to drones

Author:
Brian R. Miletich
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Drone proliferation and technological advancements in contemporary confl ict represent an evolutionary trend. Despite the growing scope and scale as a combat multiplier, drones have not yet changed the character of war. Drones are part of a broader evolutionary trend in military technology for three reasons: drones fail to achieve decisive eff ects on the battlefi eld, are vulnerable to basic adaption, and do not profoundly change existing military doctrine. The article recommends three policy provisions within NATO’s strategic construct that will help NATO meet the challenges proposed by drones. While technology alone is often insuffi cient to generate a Revolution in Military Aff airs (RMA), a new warfi ghting approach such as Multi Domain Operations (MDO) must be implemented to seize the opportunities presented by drones.
Topic:
NATO, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

766. The new NATO Force Model: ready for launch?

Author:
John R. Deni
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a threetiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is designed to better defend and deter. This new NATO Force Model faces a variety of challenges, from whether Allies will have suffi cient forces at appropriate readiness levels to fulfi l their own objectives to whether SACEUR will still have the authority to “alert, stage and prepare” Allied forces as a crisis emerges, through whether and how the Alliance’s command structure now needs a re-examination as well. To avoid the potential pitfalls and ensure the Alliance fulfi ls its own vision, NATO and its member nations ought to consider an array of mitigating steps, such as using snap exercises and inspection visits to ensure forces are indeed manned, trained and equipped, and emphasizing mass and capacity in Allied acquisition plans and capability targets.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Force Model
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

767. NATO and a Taiwan contingency

Author:
James Lee
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
This paper Discusses the conditions under which a Taiwan contingency could trigger Article 5. Explains how individual NATO countries already play a role in Taiwan’s security. Outlines scenarios under which individual NATO countries could become directly involved in a Taiwan contingency.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

768. NATO 2099: The science fiction anthology

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
N ATO is a fundamentally future-oriented organization: the entire North Atlantic Treaty is written in the future tense. The word “will” appears ten times, the word “shall” even fifteen times. And yet, it features very little in the genre that is dedicated to all things future, science fiction. In the 75 years since its inception, the Alliance has appeared in just six films and five books, with most of these not even strictly science fiction. To some, this does not matter: they equate science fiction with fantasy, a realm of the impossible. But to others, it does: science fiction has a knack for detecting trends, imagining the rare, extrapolating consequences, and sparking important debates about what is to come. It is precisely this quality that makes science fiction useful for security and defence purposes. In part, this is because science fiction often focuses on technology, projecting innovations such as sliding doors, mobile phones and tablets (Star Trek 1966 - 1969), Virtual Reality (The Matrix 1999), and space travel (Francis Godwin, Cyrano de Bergerac, Johannes Kepler in the 17th century). But it also asks moral questions about the implications of these innovations, such as Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein (1818), Isaac Azimov’s I, Robot (1950) or Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World (1931). Science fiction can also have a warning effect, highlighting were things might go wrong in the political sense, whether it is 1984 warning of a totalitarian society or Snow Crash (1992) showcasing the effects of excess capitalism on democracy. For military purposes, science fiction can imagine conflicts precisely in order to prevent or mitigate them. Since the late 19th century, authors have used this genre to anticipate and prepare for conflicts to come, with George Chesney’s The Battle of Dorking (1871) being one of the first of this kind, describing an invasion of Britain by a German-speaking country, including the destruction of the Royal Navy by a futuristic wonder-weapon (“fatal engines”). H.G. Wells’s The Land Ironclads (1903) in turn featured tank-like armoured fighting vehicles.1 It is for this reason that science fiction has been used repeatedly by military organizations. In the 1980s, US President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative was influenced by science fiction material, and Ghost Fleet (2015) was said by then SACEUR Admiral James Stavridis to be “a startling blueprint for the wars of the future and therefore needs to be read now!” But the military has not just used existing science fiction, but also used the genre to develop its own thinking, be it in the United States – such as the US Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative which produced Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030-2050 (2016) – or in France, where the project La Red Team hires science fiction authors to imagine what future opponents might think and do.2 Similar initiatives are also underway in the United Kingdom and Germany. Of course, imagining the future of NATO is a much bigger task than solely imagining the future of conflict, and perhaps this explains why the Alliance features little in regular science fiction. While NATO might be about defence, it is first and foremost a political enterprise, a promise for the future. Envisioning what challenges it will face and overcome, how it will adapt to a changing political, technological and even physical environment and maintain unity makes for a much bigger task than coming up with a new weapon that could change everything. And this is precisely what we asked the authors in this volume to do 75 years after NATO was born: imagine what it will look like 75 years from now, in 2099.
Topic:
NATO, Future, and Science Fiction
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

769. Grounding Women’s Land Rights: Towards equity and climate justice

Author:
Naomi Shadrack and Trimita Chakma
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This policy paper provides a critical examination of international commitments on women's land rights, evaluating progress and persistent challenges. It scrutinizes commitments made through the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Generation Equality Forum (GEF) Action Coalitions, revealing a substantial disconnect between ambitions and implementation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Land Rights, Equity, Climate Justice, and Gender Justice
Political Geography:
Global Focus

770. Leaving No One Behind: A green bargain for people and planet

Author:
Mathew Truscott and Erica Mason
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
With the increasing frequency of fires, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events, countries across the world are facing a new era of climate-linked crises. The international climate finance system – through mitigation, adaptation and potentially now through loss and damage – is seeking to reduce and address these impacts. In parallel, the humanitarian system is increasingly having to respond to climate-linked crisis, or the impacts of climate change on already fragile or conflict-affected states. Both systems are chronically underfunded and increasingly overstretched and must now make difficult choices regarding the way in which funding is raised, distributed and used. As the climate crisis intensifies, climate and humanitarian finance must find ways to plan and programme together more effectively. While many important debates over principles and mechanisms continue, this paper seeks to provide a broad guide for those engaging at the intersection of climate and humanitarian finance to understand both systems and generate discussion on how both sectors can better coordinate for a more effective response to the climate crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Climate Finance, Weather, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:
Global Focus

771. Towards Meaningful Human Rights Impact Assessments: From supermarket commitments to best practice action

Author:
Eline Achterberg
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This discussion paper focuses on the commitments that Dutch, German and UK supermarkets made as part of the Behind the Barcodes campaign to conduct human rights impact assessments (HRIAs). To understand whether supermarkets are meaningfully implementing those commitments and to support learning, this paper analyses the HRIAs that supermarkets have published in the past four years and identifies best practice efforts and points of improvement. Oxfam also outlines key recommendations for supermarkets and other food companies to improve HRIA processes to ensure that the rights of people making our food are better protected and respected.
Topic:
Human Rights, Food, Labor Rights, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Europe

772. Turn on the Light: Why tackling energy-related challenges in the nexus of water and food in Syria cannot wait

Author:
Anna Cervi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This discussion paper contributes to the broader discourse on the nexus between Water, Energy and Food (WEF) in parts of Syria where Oxfam works. It explores the main causes behind the deterioration of the WEF sectors and the impact they have on households across Syria. The paper also focuses on aspects that directly impact and limit Oxfam’s work inside Syria, in the delivery and implementation of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene; Livelihoods; Food Security and Protection interventions. Addressing the WEF Nexus in Syria is key in delivering more effective and sustainable interventions; and helping Syrians restore their lives.
Topic:
Water, Conflict, Syrian War, Energy, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

773. Two Years at the Forefront: Exploring the needs and experiences of women-led, women’s rights and LGBTQIA+ led organizations two years into the Ukraine humanitarian response

Author:
Charlotte Greener
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Two years on from the escalation of the war in Ukraine, Oxfam spoke with a number of people leading the work of local and national women-led organisations (WLOs), women’s rights organisations (WROs), LGBTQIA+ led organizations, and other local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) addressing the needs of women, girls and gender minorities in Poland and Ukraine. We wanted to understand how the humanitarian crisis has impacted them, personally and as organizations, and their needs and priorities for the future. At the beginning of the humanitarian crisis following the escalation of the war in Ukraine, local WLOs, WROs and LGBTQIA+ led organizations were some of the first on the ground responding to their communities’ needs, both within Ukraine and in neighboring countries, and two years on, they are still at the forefront of providing assistance. The conversations that we had with these organisations highlighted that they are facing key challenges in continuing to sustain their vital role in responding to humanitarian needs; the need for greater investment in their voice and agency as decision-makers in the humanitarian response; and the need for flexible support to these organisations that allows them to carry out their important work across all stages of the response to the humanitarian crisis.
Topic:
Human Rights, Women, Refugees, LGBT+, Humanitarian Crisis, Civil Society Organizations, Gender, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

774. Inflicting Unprecedented Suffering and Destruction: Seven ways the government of Israel is deliberately blocking and/or undermining the international humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip

Author:
Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Over five months into the Israeli mass atrocities on the Gaza Strip, in response to the horrific 7 October 2023 attacks by Palestinian armed groups, a meaningful and safe humanitarian response is made impossible by the government of Israel. In this briefing we outline seven fundamental humanitarian access constraints.
Topic:
War Crimes, Atrocities, Palestinian Authority, Humanitarian Response, Blockade, 2023 Gaza War, and Forced Displacement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

775. Climate Plans for the People: Civil society and community participation in national action plans on climate change

Author:
Duncan Pruett and Christina Hill
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In 2024, all countries will be updating and submitting their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These national climate plans outline commitments towards tackling climate change. These plans impact all walks of life and must therefore be inclusive of the whole of society. By examining recent practices across 11 countries, Oxfam found that NDCs were not sufficiently inclusive, often failing to involve civil society and communities who bear the burden of climate change and the impact of climate transition plans. This paper explores who the main actors are in NDCs, which stakeholders have not been included, and why. In order to foster a sustainable, equitable, and inclusive social, economic, and political environment for climate action, the paper makes recommendations for the UN, governments, donors, international agencies and civil society.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Participation, Adaptation, and Mitigation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

776. The perception of climate change in Senegal coastal areas

Author:
Serigne Momar Sarr, Adama Faye, Dibor Sarr Faye, and Thierno Sarr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The cognitive dimension of climate change is a subject that is rarely analysed. However, communities’ endogenous adaptation strategies are heavily dependent on their perception of the risks linked to climate change. An analysis of individuals’ representations and perceptions of climate change makes it possible to improve the ability to adapt of territories confronted by it. In this analysis, the relations of interdependence between perception, knowledge and adaptation strategies show how communities living in the coastal area of Senegal interpret climate change, in particular in the fields of agriculture, water resources and coastal areas. Considering these representations favours the co-construction and acceptability of the adaptation strategies. It enables state and non state actors to better understand the communities’ needs as regards public climate policies, whereas the media can identify levers they can use to devise effective public information campaigns on the climate, in order to reduce the vulnerability of communities that face climate hazards.
Topic:
Climate Change, Risk, Adaptation, and Perception
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

777. Increasing Civil Society Ownership of National Climate Plans: Lessons drawn from Senegal’s NDC experience

Author:
Estelle Briot
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The issue of civil society participation in the processes of developing, implementing, and monitoring national climate plans is crucial to ensuring that these ambitions are both acceptable to the populations and, beyond that, that they align with a trajectory of sustainable development beneficial to all actors in Senegalese society. This case study aims to analyze the degree of involvement through consultations with a variety of civil society actors, as well as members of the administration and international partners active in the fight against climate change. While some believe that civil society participation has progressed significantly in recent years, the vast majority feel that the level reached is still insufficient. Barriers to civil society’s appropriation of climate issues include, among others, the lack of representativeness of grassroots organizations and vulnerable groups, as well as the unfamiliarity of civil society organizations (CSOs) and community-based organizations (CBOs) with the processes, objectives, and stakeholders of the National Climate Plan (NCP), meaning that many civil society actors are rarely aware of their contribution to its implementation even though they are involved. The study also shows how limited human and financial resources reduce the possibility of broad participation by civil society organizations, especially outside the capital. This raises the question of a fair, adequate, and targeted allocation of climate financing to meet the ambitions of climate policies in Senegal. This report presents recommendations to overcome barriers that may explain low ownership of national climate plans by communities, in order to propose ways for populations to be key actors in an ambitious ecological transition in Senegal.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Participation, and Ambition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

778. Unaccountable Adaptation: The Asian Development Bank’s overstated claims on climate adaptation finance

Author:
Sunil Acharya, Rasmus Bo Sørensen, and Hans Peter Dejgaard
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Despite positioning itself as the ‘climate bank of Asia and the Pacific’, it is difficult to ascertain the Asian Development Bank’s claims of climate adaptation finance. Oxfam analysed the bank’s 2019–2023 climate finance portfolio and conducted a detailed assessment of 15 climate adaptation projects, comprising 43% of reported adaptation finance for FY 2021 and 2022. Oxfam found that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) hugely overstates the reported amounts with potential over-reporting of 44% in average for the assessed projects. This briefing paper calls for a transformative shift in the ADB’s adaptation finance strategies. The ADB must improve the accuracy and transparency of climate finance reporting and realign financial flows with the needs of the region's most vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Finance, Accountability, Transparency, Adaptation, and Development Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

779. Essential but Invisible and Exploited: A literature review of migrant workers’ experiences in European agriculture

Author:
Carlos Ruiz-Ramírez, Juan Castillo-Rojas-Marcos, and Yoan Molinero-Gerbeau
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report – derived from work implemented by Oxfam Intermón and the University Institute for Studies on Migration (IUEM) of Comillas University in the EU SafeHabitus project – is based on a review of academic and non-academic literature from the past five years. It assesses research on working, living, health and transport conditions for migrants working in the agri-food sector in Europe, and cross-cutting gender issues.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, European Union, Migrant Workers, Supply Chains, Equity, Production, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe

780. Beyond Crises: The future of Special Drawing Rights as a source of development and climate finance

Author:
Didier Jacobs
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has generated considerable interest in using SDRs as a tool for development and climate finance. This policy brief argues that the monetary logic that underpins SDRs justifies regular allocations of at least $200 billion a year, and more than doubling the share of low-and middle-income countries. Once allocated, governments can use SDRs in multiple ways, including to fund some development or climate projects. The brief also discusses reforms to deepen the SDR system in the interest of all countries.
Topic:
Development, Climate Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Economic Policy, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

781. The EU Tobacco Tax Structure: Impact on Prices, Revenues, and Smoking Patterns

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Multilateral organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF have made the argument that specific excise taxes for cigarette taxation can provide significant benefits over ad valorem excise taxes. Chief among the benefits they identify are: more stable and predictable government excise tax receipts; a lower administrative burden for tax management and collection; and internalising the externalities produced by cigarette consumption. Across the EU, Member States have been restructuring their excise tax systems to create an increasingly prominent role for specific excise taxes. Between 2010 and 2023, authorities in the EU opted to rebalance towards specific excise and away from ad valorem excise, with the average ad valorem rate across Member States falling from 36.7% to 27.0% of retail selling price (RSP). As a result, in this period the average specific excise burden across the EU increased from 30.9% to 44.5% of total taxation. However, this shift has not been uniform across Member States and the approach to cigarette taxation has diverged. Countries like Denmark and Sweden have moved to an almost total reliance on specific excise taxes. Meanwhile in some Member States such as Italy and Spain, the share of specific excise tax in total taxation has remained very low. In this study, we examine the experience of eight EU Member States that have all taken differing approaches to cigarette excise policy in recent years. In four countries that have rebalanced to achieve a higher proportional use of specific excise taxes since 2010, we found excise tax receipts to have remained stable or increased, despite flat or falling rates of legal consumption. In four countries that have not significantly rebalanced towards specific excise taxes, the results were more mixed. Italy and Spain, notably, have seen a decline in their cigarette excise tax receipts over the period, despite below-average declines in cigarette consumption. Ad valorem-based excise tax systems do not provide as strong an incentive for manufacturers to raise prices as a specific excise-based system would. In addition, ad valorem dominated excise tax systems can encourage downward substitution from consumers for cheaper alternatives, exacerbating the decline in excise tax receipts.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Tax Systems, Tobacco, Price, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Europe

782. The Environmental Impact of Digital Over Cash Payments in Europe

Author:
Jan Sun, Hannah Zick, and Johanna Neuhoff
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
On behalf of the European Digital Payment Industry Alliance (EDPIA), our report on “The Environmental Impact of Digital over Cash Payments in Europe” seeks to evaluate carbon emissions across payment systems at point of sales. Businesses and governments are becoming more and more focused on mitigating the effects of climate change through processes and policies, and the payment sector is no exception. As digital payments become more prevalent—with the number of non-cash payments doubling from 21% in 2016 to 41% in 2022 in the euro-area alone according to the European Central Bank—there has been a growing need to understand the environmental effects of these shifting preferences. Although some evidence indicates that digital payments have a smaller environmental footprint than cash payments, there has not been a comparative lifecycle assessment done between the two of them. In addition, given large differences across geographies, the actual impacts of payment methods at points of sales (POS) can differ widely from country to country. To examine this issue, this study utilises a Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) following the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) guidelines. A method Oxford Economics has added to its toolkit, the LCA is a holistic approach that appraises environmental impacts across stages of a product lifecycle on a variety of categories. Which, in this case, includes a total of different 18 categories including for example, global warming potential, mineral resource scarcity, and ionizing radiation. This cradle-to-grave approach is used for three purposes: Firstly, to consider the separate processes of cash and non-cash payments in order to isolate the environmental “hotspots” and their respective impacts. Secondly, to understand the processes in three countries with different rates of payment adoption—Italy, Germany, and Finland—for comprehensive results. Thirdly, to compare the environmental impact of cash and non-cash payments at point of sales in the different impact categories.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, Radiation, and Digital Payments
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Germany, and Italy

783. Racism, Xenophobia and Solidarity in Migration and Mobility Politics: Does COVID-19 make any difference?

Author:
Mojúbàolú Olufúnké Okome
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Ìrìnkèrindò: A Journal of African Migration
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
This issue was originally planned to center on the COVID-19 pandemic, intended for publication at its peak. However, one of the lingering effects of the pandemic was the prolonged production timeline of this issue.
Topic:
Migration, Solidarity, Mobility, Xenophobia, COVID-19, and Racism
Political Geography:
Africa

784. Illusion or Reality: A Recontextualized Perspective of ‘the American Dream’ in Imbolo Mbue’s Behold the Dreamers

Author:
Elizabeth Adesunmbo Omotayo
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
‘The American Dream’ motif is one that has been deployed in productions of American literary icons for centuries with different outcomes for the characters portrayed. Despite a plethora of fiction being devoted to the motif from African migrants’ perspective, not many studies have explored the actualization of the Dream by characters in such texts. In Behold the Dreamers (2016), Imbolo Mbue presents the lived experiences of new African diasporans. This study looks at the outcomes of the quest for ‘the Dream’ by Mbue’s characters, through a mimetic reading of her novel and based on Harold Bloom’s notion of ‘Party of Hope’ and ‘the American Nightmare’ as exemplified in the treatments of the Dream motif by several writers. Mbue, while presenting the paradoxical notions of illusion and reality of the Dream, also portrays struggles by both citizens and migrants, to achieve the tangible and intangible of its ideals. Findings reveal that essentialization and discrimination inhibit the attainment of the Dream by many African migrants; that the attainment of college education is a huge factor in the realization of the tangible of its ideals, while the attainment of the intangible seems illusory for many migrants. The conclusion is that several factors prevent the realization of the Dream by many contemporary African migrants.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Literary Analysis, American Dream, and Motif
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America

785. Economic Forced Migration in Southern Africa: The Case of Malawi

Author:
Cobbener Wilfred Sungani and Pascal Newbourne Mwale
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
As with other world regions, free market capitalism or the neoliberal system has caused numerous individuals and families to lose access to viable income-generating bases in Southern Africa. This places them in a socio-economically abject and precarious position. Resource-poor and unemployed Southern Africans have for a long time been forced to migrate to less unstable economies within the region. South Africa continues to be the most attractive destination for most poor and destitute Southern Africans. These people are called ‘economic refugees’ in the dominant literature. Hitherto, the plight of the Malawian ‘economic refugee’ in South Africa has not attracted much scholarly attention. Drawing on the interdisciplinary methodologies of African social philosophy and African social history, we present the case of Malawian economic refugees in South Africa. Drawing upon ideas derived from Immanuel Kant’s analysis in Perpetual Peace (1917), this paper argues for the promotion of the spirit of fraternity between South Africans and Malawian migrants
Topic:
Immanuel Kant, Forced Migration, Economic Refugee, and Fraternity
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Malawi

786. Investigating the Vulnerability of Foreign Migrants Businesses in Durban, South Africa, During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Ayobami Popoola, Hangwelani Magidimisha-Chipingu, and Lovemore Chipungu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
There is lack of empirical evidence on the vulnerability of immigrant businesses in Durban, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. To investigate this, data was collected during the pandemic to evaluate the vulnerability of immigrant businesses. The research adopted the quantitative approach, with a sample of fifty-three (53) Durban city immigrants small-scale business owners, to examine their business vulnerability. A linear regression model and correlation were used to analyse the data. The findings show that business insecurity increased immigrants' business vulnerability. Thus, without underestimating the COVID-19 pandemic effect, it was evident that urban insecurity resulting in xenophobic tendencies and incidences is the main factor/determinant/predictor that increases the vulnerability of foreign businesses. The study suggests that the documentation and analysis of foreign immigrants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to understanding the effects and consequences for immigrants across the globe. The study contributes to debates on immigrants' inclusion and seeks to fill the gap in the literature on immigrant business experience and survival in host communities.
Topic:
Migration, Immigrants, COVID-19, and Business Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

787. The Complexities of Transnational Childcare Practices among Ghanaian Families in a Context of Global Pandemic

Author:
Patricia Serwaa Afrifa
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
Childcare remains central in all human societies. This is because it is in children that humans invest their immortality and ensure the continuity of humanity. This partly explains the social collectivism that is brought to bear in childcare to the extent that in some indigenous African societies, the popular axiom is: "It takes a village to raise to raise a child". While the forces of modernity, neoliberalism, and the near-collapse of the extended family system across the world, including indigenous societies, have negatively impacted collective childcare, parents continue to devise creative strategies to nurture their children. The members of the Ghanaian diaspora in the United States of America (USA) often extended invitations to older members of their families, including their mothers, to join them across the Atlantic to help with nurturing their children. This practice of transnational migration of child carers was very efficient in helping children to access Ghanaian cultural values and languages, until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. With the outbreak of the pandemic, one way of controlling its totalizing effect was the imposition of social distance protocols, which at the peak of the pandemic involved a global ban on all means of human crisscrossing the world. This implied that most diasporic Ghanaians had their family-dependent source of childcare supply significantly cut. This phenomenon inspired the paper. Through in-depth interviews with selected Ghanaian families in the USA through social media and phones, this paper explores the impact of the ban on transnational travel on childcare practices among Ghanaian diaspora in the USA. The key findings of the study suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not only cripple the economies of the world, it also blocked the alternatives available to Ghanaians to receive an additional source of care for their children.
Topic:
Diaspora, Family, COVID-19, Strategy, Migrants, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

788. Decoding China’s Technology and Industrial Policy: Seven Terms You Need to Know

Author:
Barry Naughton, Siwen Xiao, and Yaosheng Xu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
China’s technology and industrial policy programs have grown in scope and intensity since 2020, but the vocabulary used to describe them is vague and often misleading. This policy brief decodes seven essential terms and shows that they have concrete and complementary meanings. When understood in concert, they reveal the establishment of a large-scale, government-directed program of mission-oriented research, development, and application. Together these terms outline a substantial expansion of the Chinese government’s direct role in organizing economic activity, and hint at some of the limits of that expansion.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Research and Development, and Terminology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

789. The Quantum Race: U.S.-Chinese Competition for Leadership in Quantum Technologies

Author:
Juljan Krause
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Quantum computing is poised to unleash innovation across various sectors, from materials science to pharmaceutical and medical research, finance, logistics, and even climate change management. Quantum computing also has the potential to provide the backbone for future artificial intelligence and autonomous systems that cannot be realized with digital hardware alone, while quantum communication can strengthen security in cyberspace. For these reasons, quantum technologies feature prominently in the emerging technologies race between the United States and China. In this policy brief, IGCC postdoctoral fellow Juljan Krause analyzes China’s advances in quantum communication, which aim to signal China’s technological leadership while protecting Chinese communications from foreign surveillance. He argues that Chinese leadership in quantum communication will have strategic repercussions, particularly as it is likely to give China’s efforts to shape global industry standards additional momentum. Even if quantum communication has no immediate military implications, policymakers should consider how the technology could embolden China further.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

790. Decoding the Global Goal on Adaptation at COP28

Author:
Olivia Fielding
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Although adaptation has historically received less attention than mitigation, finance, and more recently loss and damage, it remains a key aspect of climate action as we near the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold. This paper discusses the agreement on a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) as one of the most important outcomes of the twenty-eighth UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, providing an overview of and key takeaways from the document. The final decision text contains language on long-term transformational adaptation, which was seen as a success by many developing countries. It also sets targets for a finalized list of thematic areas—a contentious subject and another success for many developing countries. These targets explain what success looks like, ultimately aiming for the high-level objective of well-being for people and planet, while leaving the details of achieving this objective to countries. The text also includes targets for the iterative adaptation cycle. In addition, there were a number of paragraphs on means of implementation, though many developing countries saw these as a failure, as they provide little new or significant language. The next step will be to develop indicators for the targets in the GGA framework. Ideally, the negotiators should set the strategic direction of this process while leaving the selection of indicators to experts. It will be important to keep the list of indicators short, account for data gaps, and draw on existing indicators to the extent possible. While there is much work to be done to give life to the GGA framework adopted at COP28, it has the potential to be the new guiding light for climate action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Adaptation, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

791. Gender Inclusion in the Pandemic Agreement: A Growing Gap?

Author:
Sara E. Davies and Clare Wenham
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
There is increasing evidence of the gendered outcomes and secondary effects of epidemics and pandemics. Women make up a disproportionate share of the healthcare workforce, absorb much of the additional unpaid labor during health crises, and are exposed to increased gender-based violence and insecurity around sexual and reproductive healthcare during pandemics, among other effects. A gender-sensitive approach to health emergencies is essential for pandemic preparedness, prevention, response, and recovery. Despite the World Health Organization’s (WHO) awareness of these impacts, it does not systematically consider them in its pandemic preparedness and response. WHO’s historical “add women and stir” approach is evident in the proposed amendments to the International Health Regulations (IHR), whose attention to gender focuses primarily on committee representation. Gender sensitivity is also limited in the drafts of the WHO Convention, Agreement or Other International Instrument on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response (CA+), currently in development. Gender-inclusive language in the CA+ is essential for effective international coordination to prepare, prevent, respond to, and recover from health emergencies. This paper examines the extent to which gender has been included in the zero-draft CA+ process through a desk review of the drafts that have been published (as of March 2024), focusing on explicit mentions of gender and women. The report documents the progress to date on integrating gender equality into the CA+ and offers the following recommendations for CA+ negotiators, WHO, and member states. Future drafts of the CA+ should have provisions that address a wider range of the gendered impacts of pandemics; WHO should develop an IHR/CA+ repository; INB negotiators should directly engage relevant UN entities to recommend methods of integrating gender into the CA+; States that claim to have a principled stance on gender equity should transparently champion gender-inclusive language; and The CA+ should consider and incorporate initial lessons learned from the implementation of the gender-inclusive language in the IHR’s Joint External Evaluation (JEE) of states.
Topic:
Women, Pandemic, Inclusion, WHO, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

792. Advancing Feminist Foreign Policy in the Multilateral System: Key Debates and Challenges

Author:
Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Since the first feminist foreign policy (FFP) was adopted by Sweden in 2014, sixteen countries have either published an FFP or announced their intention to do so. Some proponents of FFPs have indicated that these policies can be a way to democratize and transform multilateralism, integrating feminist approaches and principles into multilateral institutions and leading to more inclusive and equitable outcomes. This requires seeing FFPs as not just a “women’s issue” but also as a way to reinvigorate an outdated and inequitable system through transformational change and the interrogation of entrenched power dynamics, including in areas such as trade, climate, migration, and disarmament. One obstacle to realizing the potential of FFPs is that there is no single definition of feminist foreign policy. Part of the challenge is that there are many interpretations of feminism, some of which reflect a more transformative, systemic approach than others. Ultimately, there is no single way to “do” feminism, and approaches to FFP should, and will, vary. If FFP is to survive and grow, it will encompass contradictions and compromises, as with all policymaking, and civil society and member states will have to collaborate to advance feminist principles in the multilateral arena. To explore the future of FFPs, the International Peace Institute, in partnership with the Open Society Foundations and in collaboration with the co-chairs of the Feminist Foreign Policy Plus (FFP+) Group, Chile and Germany, convened a retreat on Feminist Foreign Policy and Multilateralism in July 2023. Drawing on insights from the retreat, this paper discusses five ongoing debates that FFP-interested states should meaningfully engage with: Militarization, demilitarization, and the root causes of violence; Global perspectives and postcolonial critiques; The branding and substance of FFPs; The domestication of FFPs; and Accountability and sustainability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Feminism, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

793. Specialized Police Teams in UN Peace Operations: A Survey of Progress and Challenges

Author:
Charles T. Hunt
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Over the past decade and a half, specialized police teams (SPTs) have emerged as an innovative complement to individual police officers (IPOs) and formed police units (FPUs) in UN police peacekeeping. In general, SPTs are comprised of police officers and civilian policing experts focused on “skills transfer” and capacity building through technical assistance and advice, training, and mentoring to host-state police in a specific area of police operations or administration. This paper provides an overview of the benefits and challenges of SPTs as compared to IPOs. Some of the benefits include that SPTs are generally highly capable and meet high standards in specialized areas of policing, provide a more coherent and cohesive approach, and focus on objectives within a specific area. They also maximize capabilities by matching the work of officers to their skill sets, can be quick to deploy and adaptable, and maintain continuity by implementing longer projects. Moreover, SPTs facilitate relationship building with host-state police, use sustainable capacity-building approaches such as training of trainers, provide broader benefits to missions, and are more attractive to some police-contributing countries. At the same time, several obstacles to greater effectiveness have emerged, including that SPTs confront high-level tensions over their development and administration, experience supply-side issues due to their reliance on voluntary contributions and shortages of specially trained officers and civilian experts, and are dominated by countries in the Global North. They also have inconsistent composition, plans, and modalities across and even within missions and phases; lack sufficient guidance on key operational aspects; and lack consistent and sufficient funding. Moreover, SPTs are disconnected from broader efforts, sometimes implement unsustainable programming that focuses on “quick wins,” and often lack adequate frameworks for monitoring and evaluation. The lessons emerging from the experience of SPTs to date emphasize the need for innovation around deployment and implementation modalities for this specialized approach to capacity building. At the same time, they highlight the need for greater organizational flexibility and adaptability to empower and maximize the potential of SPTs.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Police, Skills, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:
Global Focus

794. Can the World Bank Deliver on Climate Change? Testing the Evolution Roadmap through Loss and Damage

Author:
Michael Franczak
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The establishment of a new Loss and Damage Fund and Funding Arrangements at COP27 and the Fund’s operationalization and initial capitalization at COP28 were milestones in the UN climate regime. The World Bank engaged in the Transitional Committee (TC) process as a potential host and trustee for the Fund, a member of a new “High-Level Dialogue,” and a direct provider of loss and damage (L&D) support. The implementation of the Fund and Funding Arrangements—the mosaic—is the first big test of the World Bank’s commitment to evolving its policies, practices, and relationships. This paper discusses the World Bank’s engagement with loss and damage, including the context of broader reforms aiming to modernize the Bank, such as the Bank’s Evolution Roadmap, which identifies three guiding elements for the Bank’s evolution: a new mission and vision, a new playbook, and new resources. One of the key components of the Bank’s evolution is the introduction of climate-resilient debt clauses (CRDCs) or “pause clauses.” Pause clauses feature prominently in recent initiatives to reform the international financial architecture, such as Bridgetown 2.0, the Africa Climate Summit’s Nairobi Declaration, and the Vulnerable Twenty Group’s (V20) Accra-Marrakech Agenda. The paper also discusses the debate over the World Bank’s hosting of the Fund and the set of conditions and safeguards, determined by developing countries, that the Bank would have to meet in order to host the Fund. Finally, the paper discusses priority actions for the High-Level Dialogue, including resource mobilization, institutional protocols, and the losses and damages of the future.
Topic:
Climate Change, World Bank, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

795. The Security Side of Gulf Visions. Adapting Defence to the Connectivity Age

Author:
Eleanora Ardemagni
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The GCC states are adapting defence strategies to the challenges raised by their “Visions”, their post-hydrocarbon national plans. Far from being just economic programmes, the Visions are broad national transformation platforms displaying also a security dimension, and with many security implications. New cities and industrial poles, infrastructures, mega events and tourism raise unprecedented security risks, at which the GCC states are answering through a combination of economic-oriented foreign policy, multipolar international alliances, and ambitions towards “defense autonomisation”. What are the Visions’ security dimensions and implications, and how does the post-oil path affect and reshape foreign policies? This Report analyses how GCC states are adapting deterrence and defence tools to the connectivity age, navigating a troubled neighbourhood of both conventional and asymmetric threats. In a central but more vulnerable Gulf, how may the EU and NATO accommodate transformations in GCC states’ defense policies, postures, and means, to support their own security?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

796. Moving Targets. Trends in Japan’s Foreign and Security Policies

Author:
Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In December 2022, Japan announced it would drastically increase its defence budget by 2027. The decision came as a wake-up call for the whole region: Japan was gearing up for a world of heightened tensions and rivalry in the Indo-Pacific Region. This Report analyses the present and future of Japan’s security and defence policies. Within the context of a rising China, Tokyo has broadened its defence ties with the US, India, Australia, and Taiwan. However, China remains its biggest trading partner, meaning Tokyo's policymakers are charged with the task and challenge of striking a balance between defence policies and business and trade relations with China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, Influence, Defense Spending, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Taiwan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

797. Blockchain and Energy Understanding Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Nicola De Blasio and Charles Hua
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The transition to a decarbonized, decentralized, and digitized energy future will unlock new business, policy, and technology models with the associated opportunities and challenges. Innovative technologies like blockchain, a shared, decentralized, and immutable digital ledger system that processes, validates, and manages digital transactions based on algorithmic consensus protocols, may enable this transition. Potential blockchain applications in energy range from enhanced distributed energy resources and peer-to-peer energy trading regimes to more robust grid management and smart energy contracts. There has been significant hype around blockchain’s potential impact in shaping economic and energy systems. Yet, it is essential to separate signal from noise and assess blockchain’s potential impact. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis by identifying key use cases and then addressing which key characteristics blockchain technologies need to bring to fruition to support them. It also proposes an analytical framework to evaluate the potential impact of eight applications based on four key criteria: feasibility, maturity, scalability, and value additivity.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, Blockchain, Decarbonization, Energy, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

798. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:
Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

799. The changing dynamics of European electricity markets and the supply-demand mismatch risk

Author:
Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Meeting Europe’s 2030 climate targets will require massive clean-electricity investment. To facilitate these investments, state-backed de-risking schemes such as contracts for difference (CfDs) are needed. Their role in supporting renewables has been consolidated by the European Union’s recently agreed electricity market design reform. Under such state-backed schemes, the distribution of costs between the market and the state will depend on the balance of supply and demand. Lower demand will decrease spot-market prices, reducing market costs but increasing the cost to CfD-issuing states. If electrification of European energy demand does not keep pace with the electricity supply expansion, tens of billions of euros annually could be channelled through state contracts, generating costs that must ultimately be recovered from consumers. A cost-efficient, managed transition will require European coordination of electricity supply, demand and network investments. Clean electricity supply and demand should be synchronised through a combination of state interventions and market mechanisms. Undersupply of clean power will mean a failure to meet climate targets, but oversupply can be costly too. To manage the costs of renewable de-risking schemes and to accelerate energy-system decarbonisation, flexible electricity systems should be promoted, policies to encourage electrification could be implemented and cost-recovery arising from state-backed renewable support schemes should be fair.
Topic:
Climate Change, Markets, Electricity, Energy, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:
Europe

800. Productivity spillovers from FDI: A firm-level cross-country analysis

Author:
JaeBin Ahn, Shekhar Aiyar, and Andrea F. Presbitero
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
This paper provides cross-country firm-level evidence on productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI), separately for greenfield FDI and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The granularity of bilateral sector-level FDI datasets allows for addressing possible endogeneity issues by applying a two-step approach whereby an exogenous FDI measure is constructed from a gravity-type regression of bilateral FDI flows. When looking at the effects of greenfield investments on firm labour productivity we find: i) positive intra-industry spillover effects for firms located in advanced countries, and ii) positive backward spillover effects for firms located in emerging and developing countries. These spillovers are driven entirely by FDI from advanced countries. The results from cross-border M&As are noisier, with weakly suggestive evidence for positive intra-industry spillovers in advanced countries but negative backward spillovers in emerging markets and developing countries.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Business, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Global Focus