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701. Origins and Outcomes of U S Defense Policy Toward Israel with Josh Paul

Author:
Josh Paul
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
The United States describes its commitment to support Israel as “iron clad” to the extent that our nation is providing diplomatic and military support while Israel conducts what the ICJ has described as a “plausible genocide” in Gaza. Former U.S. State Department official, Josh Paul, will examine how U.S. security and defense policy undermines American interests abroad and its most fundamental values at home.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Genocide, Strategic Interests, and Military Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

702. Episode 04: Exporting the War on Terror: Islamophobia in Asia

Author:
Sahar Aziz and Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Host Sahar Aziz and Arizona State University Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law Professor Khaled Beydoun discuss the latest legal and political developments in the troubling rise of global Islamophobia in India, China, and other Asian countries. The conversation is informed by Professor Beydoun’s new book The New Crusades: Islamophobia and the Global War on Muslims.
Topic:
Politics, Law, Discrimination, Islamophobia, War on Terror, and Muslims
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

703. Episode 03: Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System

Author:
Sahar Aziz, Michael German, Ayah Zaki, and Dillon Reisman
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Civil liberties are vulnerable to infringement in large part due to the post-9/11 expansion of a government surveillance apparatus. Join us as we examine the threats to civil liberties and rights posed by Fusion Centers, as highlighted in the Center for Security, Race and Rights’ groundbreaking report Shining a Light on New Jersey's Secret Intelligence System. Host Sahar Aziz addresses these issues with Brennan Center for Justice law enforcement expert Michael German, CAIR New Jersey staff attorney Ayah Zaki, and ACLU of New Jersey attorney Dillon Reisman.
Topic:
Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Surveillance, and Civil Liberties
Political Geography:
North America, New Jersey, and United States of America

704. Neither Settler Nor Native:The Making and Unmaking of Permanent Minorities with Mahmood Mamdani

Author:
Mahmood Mamdani
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Professor Mahmood Mamdani examines how the colonial state and the nation-state have been mutually constructed through the politicization of a religious or ethnic majority at the expense of an equally manufactured minority. He proffers that political violence demands political solutions: not criminal justice for perpetrators but a rethinking of the political community for all survivors—victims, perpetrators, bystanders, beneficiaries—based on common residence and the commitment to build a common future without the permanent political identities of settler and native.
Topic:
Political Violence, Minorities, Colonialism, State, Identity, Settlers, and Natives
Political Geography:
Global Focus

705. A Discussion with Omar Shakir: Gaza, Genocide, and International Law

Author:
Omar Shakir
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
A discussion about Gaza, genocide, and international law with Omar Shakir, the Israel and Palestine Director at Human Rights Watch.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

706. Episode 02: Consistent Partiality: U.S. Foreign Policy on Palestine-Israel

Author:
Sahar Aziz, Peter Beinart, and Sarah Whitson
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Although the Biden administration talks about supporting democracy and human rights, it has maintained unconditional US support for Israel even as human rights organizations label it an apartheid state. What are the political and ideological foundations of America’s hostility to Palestinian freedom? And what would it take to change them? Does the US’s unconditional support for Israel serve America’s national interests? Host Sahar Aziz addresses these questions with Professor Peter Beinart and human rights attorney Sarah Leah Whitson.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Politics, Democracy, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

707. Justice for Some: Law and the Question of Palestine with Professor Noura Erakat

Author:
Noura Erakat
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Justice for Some offers a new approach to understanding the Palestinian struggle for freedom, told through the power and control of international law. Focusing on key junctures across a century-long arc —from the Balfour Declaration in 1917 to present-day wars in Gaza- the book shows how the strategic deployment of law has shaped current conditions. Over the past century, the law has done more to advance Israel's interests than the Palestinians'. But this outcome was never inevitable. Law is politics, and its meaning and application depend on the political intervention of states and people alike. Within the law, change is possible. International law can serve the cause of freedom when it is mobilized in support of a political movement. Presenting the promise and risk of international law, Justice for Some calls for renewed action and attention to the Question of Palestine.
Topic:
International Law, Politics, History, Political Movements, Palestinians, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

708. Episode 01: Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics

Author:
Mark Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Scholar Marc Lamont Hill and Israel-Palestine expert Mitchell Plitnick spotlight how holding fast to one-sided and unwaveringly pro-Israel policies reflects the truth-bending grip of authoritarianism on both Israel and the United States. 'Except for Palestine' deftly argues that progressives and liberals who oppose regressive policies on immigration, racial justice, gender equality, LGBTQ rights, and other issues must extend these core principles to the oppression of Palestinians.
Topic:
Human Rights, Politics, Authoritarianism, Inequality, LGBT+, Liberalism, Progressivism, Gender, Palestinians, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

709. Open-Door Country: The Place and Role of Georgia

Author:
Maxime Gauin
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The formal award of official EU candidate country status to Georgia in December 2023, the ArmeniaGeorgia agreement of January 2024, and the warm Turkish-GeorgianAzerbaijani meeting in March 2024 confirm and even reinforce the singular position of Georgia in the South Caucasus. This essay examines the origins and current aspects of the place and role occupied by Tbilisi in the region, and how this has come to be seen as an advantage by the most relevant external players. Georgia is the ‘open-door country’ of the Silk Road region.
Topic:
History, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Georgia and South Caucasus

710. The South Caucasus and Great Power Confrontation: Is There a Silver Lining on the Horizon?

Author:
Gulshan Pashayeva
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The onset of the present stage in the conflict over Ukraine in February 2022 further heightened an already tense geopolitical standoff. Although this war has now entered into its third year, there is no clear sign that a peaceful settlement could be within reach. Rather, each passing day makes the situation more complicated and drags both sides towards a dead end in which neither one nor the other of the two direct belligerents is likely to emerge better off than each was before the full-scale fighting began again in earnest. Today, this war in which two major geopolitical actors—the West and Russia—have become trapped is also having an impact on other regions around the globe. The European Union is one, obviously: its ambitions to achieve geopolitical autonomy (at least within the West, as a distinct pole), for instance, have been set back, and Brussels has had to scramble mightily to reconfigure the terms of its energy security. Another is the Silk Road region in general, and the South Caucasus in particular. This essay will examine the latest developments in this latter area through an inquiry into whether (and how) the evolving geopolitical rivalry between the West and Russia affects that part of the world. It will culminate with a consideration of whether there is any silver lining that could result from this situation, whereby the South Caucasus could become a politically and economically united region in the time ahead.
Topic:
Power Politics, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Balkans, Georgia, and South Caucasus

711. The Russia Factor in China’s Relations with the West

Author:
Klaus W. Larres and Lea Thome
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Tension between China and the Western world has been a characteristic of global affairs for the better part of the last decade. Notwithstanding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States continues to view China as its greatest global rival and competitor. In fact, many policymakers in Washington (though by no means all of them) view China as an existential threat to America’s global influence and predominance. As the European Union and its 27 member states are not among the world’s superpowers, the Europeans have a somewhat more relaxed attitude toward China. Still, according to an important policy statement issued by the EU Commission in 2019, Brussels has come to see Beijing not only as a “partner and competitor” but also as a serious “systemic rival.” This refers less to geopolitical concerns but very much to global governance issues and geoeconomic, trade, and investment relations with China. The EU is deeply concerned about the continuing lack of reciprocity of market access, intellectual property theft, and China’s frequently state-subsidized competition regarding cutting-edge technology products, including solar panels, EV vehicles, and many other products, which may soon swamp the EU market. The EU Commission has launched an investigation into China’s production of EV vehicles and also Beijing’s shipbuilding industry, which it suspects may well work on the basis of rather unfair and highly subsidized support from the Chinese state.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Markets, Geopolitics, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Production
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

712. Pivotal States, Not Swing States

Author:
Mohammed Soliman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The United States, in particular, is grappling with the challenges posed by the emerging multipolar order and the need to secure a favorable position in this evolving global landscape. As part of this contemplation, there is a growing recognition of the significance of “swing states” like India, Türkiye, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia in shaping the outcome of the postCold War order and the broader global system. However, framing these consequential states as “swing states” in and of itself carries significant risk, as it implies that the only choice they have is a binary one: pick the U.S.-led West or the China and Russia axis. In reality, their strategic posture is far away from choosing one side over the other; at the same time, they are not behaving similarly to the Cold War-era non-aligned movement that was inherently anti-Western and leaned towards the Soviet-led block under the disguise of anti-colonialism solidarity. The appropriate strategic name for this growing list of countries in the present-day is “pivotal states,” and includes Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye, chosen for their strategic geography, demography, and overall strength. Alongside these, there are other pivotal states with unique roles, such as Vietnam due to its position in the global supply chain and Egypt as a maritime bottleneck between the East and West. It is now widely acknowledged that international stability and the outcome of the U.S.-China neoCold War are influenced by factors beyond the behavior of Russia and China. But one crucial factor that remains underappreciated is that the behavior of pivotal states— which are determined to chart an independent course—will play vital roles in shaping the future of the international system. It is essential to recognize that these pivotal states inherently reject the bipolarity and “Cold War 2.0” framing that dominates the perspectives of, for example, Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Strategic Stability, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, Indonesia, Turkey, India, Brazil, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

713. Free and Open Spaces: Small and Medium-Sized Nations Can Reshape the Modern World

Author:
James Jay Carafano and Márton Ugrósdy
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
What if most people are wrong about the future? The presumption—the conventional view, both in the policymaking world and in academia—is that great powers have the greatest influence in shaping geopolitics. There is also a presumption that great power competition will inevitably lead to dividing the world into hard spheres of influence, and that there will be an inevitable competition over dominating the “commons,” the routes of air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace that unite the world. We think all these assumptions are wrong. We think there is evidence to the contrary. Indeed, when great powers compete most, this often creates more space for other states to exercise influence. We argue that the countries spanning the traditional pathways of the Silk Road region from Europe and Türkiye to the Caucasus and Central Asia have that power in their hands, if, that is, they are wise in how they wield it. This essay will outline, in broad strokes, the genesis of our argument.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Small States
Political Geography:
Global Focus

714. Carbons of War: The Environmental Impact of Military Activity in Conflict and Peace

Author:
Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Climate change is the supreme challenge of our times, poised for human civilization. Its facets are diverse: the rise of temperatures, trending natural disasters and enduring weather extremes, droughts and floods, fluctuations of the sea level and hydrographic regimes, distressed ecosystem balances, and other aberrations. Climate change affects human health and demography, increases food and water insecurity, accelerates environmental degradation (such as deterioration of arable and grazing lands, deforestation, or desertification), shrinks biodiversity, and produces other similar effects. Climate change escalates competition for dwindling resources and, subsequently, generates frictions and tensions between states and within individual groups of populations, thus forming a stage for geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry as well as potential violent conflicts and wars. The snowballing impact of climate change on a global scale steadily approaches the point of irreversibility. The grim irony is that climate change, in many ways, represents a result of different forms of anthropogenic activity, including increased carbon emissions. Although the climatic transformation is already acknowledged as the ultimate challenge of global magnitude, one particular aspect remains often overlooked. Warfare is one of the countless varieties of human performance. Wars and armed conflicts naturally yield an enormous impact on the anthroposphere and habitat. Beyond that, the existing military forces and their routine activities unwillingly affect the environment even in peacetime. Therefore, this essay examines different patterns related to the damaging impact of wars and military activities on the climate and the environment, with a particular focus on carbon emissions. Furthermore, it addresses the subject of climate changedriven conflicts and evaluates measures taken at the international and national level to mitigate the effects projected by military forces on the environment. The overall objective of this paper is to provide analytical support in the course of preparations for the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

715. The Battle for Green Supremacy: Carbon Markets, Artificial Intelligence, and the Problem of Climate Finance

Author:
Carlos Roa and Shubham Dwivedi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Observe the bee as it pollinates flowers, fruits, vegetables, and a wide variety of other crops; according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, around one-third of the world’s food production depends on their little wings. Watch as the beaver builds its dam, shaping the landscape of its local environment. Its pond stores carbon, improves water quality, creates a suitable habitat to support biodiversity, and helps reduce climate impacts. One cannot help but conclude that some higher order guides the work of these and other creatures; someone or something seems to be managing the delicate ecology of our world. Unfortunately, human beings are not as adept at such complex environmental management. As the world increasingly bears witness to the dramatic effects of climate change, the urgency for decisive action has never been more critical. With the planet’s average temperature continuing to rise, resulting in more frequent, severe, and unusual weather events, the global community faces a stark reminder of the imperative to mitigate this environmental degradation. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP29) represents a pivotal moment for states to commit to ambitious strategies and deepen international collaboration in the fight against climate change. At the forefront is the pressing need to explore and affordably implement effective mechanisms that can significantly reduce carbon emissions on a global scale.
Topic:
Markets, Climate Finance, Artificial Intelligence, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

716. The Genius Legacy of Ibn Sina and Biruni: The Contemporary Fruits of a Two-Man Renaissance

Author:
S. Frederick Starr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Two of the most outstanding thinkers to have lived between ancient Greece and the European Renaissance are Ibn Sina (Avicenna) and Biruni. Both were born in the tenth century within the borders of what is now Uzbekistan and spent the entirety of their lives there and surrounding areas (today’s Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan). Neither ever set foot in Greece, Rome, or even Baghdad. Neither Ibn Sina nor Biruni were Arabs; both were Central Asians of Persianate stock. This meant that their native languages were part of the diverse group of languages that dominated Central Asia, Afghanistan, and what is now Iran. Both became known by their Arabic names because they wrote mainly in Arabic, the language of learning in the Muslim world, just as Latin was in the West. Lastly, both were larger-than-life figures who embodied the highest achievements of a moment when Central Asia and the Middle East were the global epicenter of intellectual achievement—what some have called the Muslim Renaissance.
Topic:
History, Ibn Sina (Avicenna), and Biruni
Political Geography:
Central Asia

717. War, Peace, and Law

Author:
Miguel Ayuso
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We are going to deal with peace in relation to law in the broad context of the Western philosophic tradition, presented in these pages through a traditional Catholic prism rooted in what one can characterize as Thomistic realism. Naturally, when defining peace, war appears by comparison or opposition. And, naturally, it is therefore also necessary to deal with war in some detail in order to contribute to a better definition of peace. First of all, some doubt arises about this relationship. For if peace is—in St. Augustine’s definition—the tranquillity of order, it is not only the absence of war, but something positive: order, hierarchy, harmony, etc. But if, on the other hand, it is the neutralization of conflict, as Italian academician Danilo Castellano says, that war must somehow make its presence felt again, even if its disappearance is postulated. We shall deal briefly with both in what follows, concluding with a reminder of “just war” and a conclusion on “just peace."
Topic:
War, Law, Philosophy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

718. Armenia’s Critical Economic Reliance on Russia: Can the West Eliminate It?

Author:
Orkhan Baghirov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Lately one of the most discussed political issues related to the South Caucasus region is Armenia’s attempt to incline towards the West by trying to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence. This has been manifested both geopolitically and geoeconomically. However, Armenia’s potential strategic shift away from its centuries-old political alignment with Russia raises questions about the future of the overall relationship between the two countries. A key concern revolves around the challenges Armenia may face due to its significant economic dependence on Russia. For such a shift to occur successfully, Armenia would have to not only strengthen its political and security ties with the West, but also develop the ability to replace Russia with Western partners in key economic sectors. Thus, the primary objective of the essay is to assess the degree to which Armenia could economically substitute Russia with the West, determining the feasibility of this transition. To achieve this, we should identify the critical level of Armenia’s reliance on Russia across diverse economic sectors and assess the extent to which the West can mitigate this dependency in anything resembling a realistic timeframe, without, that is, critically endangering Armenia’s economic wellbeing.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Trade, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, and South Caucasus

719. Revitalizing the 3+3 Platform: A Formula for a New Regional Security Order?

Author:
Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
On 23 October 2023, the second meeting of the 3+3 Consultative Regional Platform took place in Tehran, Iran. This platform is built upon the idea of bringing together Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia ‘plus’ Iran, Russia, and Türkiye for regional cooperation had been introduced by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Türkiye after the Second Karabakh War. Georgia, owing to its ongoing territorial conflict with Russia, refused to participate in the platform, though its leaders signaled that they might reconsider this position in the future. The initiative, even in the 2+3 format (i.e., without Georgia), has faced several challenges, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s mercurial policies in the region. The first meeting within this initiative (without Georgia’s participation) was held in Moscow on 10 December 2021 at the level of deputy foreign ministers. At that inaugural meeting, each side expressed optimism regarding the future of this framework. However, this optimism did not materialize for a long time. While Moscow and Tehran remained supportive of the 3+3 initiative, it mostly lost its relevance and importance for the other actors, including Azerbaijan. Despite repeated announcements by Russian and Iranian officials regarding preparations for the second meeting in this format, it took nearly two years for the meeting to actually occur. According to Russia’s leadership, the West was undermining this initiative
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Politics, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

720. Time to Dream? Toward a ‘Shared Future’ Perspective for the South Caucasus

Author:
Alpaslan Özerdem
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The South Caucasus—a region at the intersection of Europe and Asia and a constituent part of what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the Silk Road region—is rich in history and cultural diversity, yet marked by complex geopolitical challenges. Comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, this region is not only a mosaic of cultures and languages but also a nexus of strategic interests for global powers. The intricate landscape of the South Caucasus is defined by its history of territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and the influence of neighboring powers, notably Russia, Türkiye, and Iran. These factors and the region’s significant energy resources have made it a focal point of international diplomacy and regional power struggles. The present-day dynamics in the South Caucasus are shaped by the legacies of the Soviet era and more recent territorial disputes, notably the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (and surrounding areas) and the conflict between Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As these states navigate their post-Soviet identities and relationships, the potential for a cooperative, shared future presents itself as both a monumental challenge and a transformative opportunity. This article explores the prospects for peace, cooperation, and regional integration in the South Caucasus, delving into the complex interplay of historical legacies, current tensions, and future possibilities for a region at a crossroads. Geography is one of the critical features of nations and states for their peace, prosperity, and culture. However, geography is not the only determinant that dictates how countries live in peace and security. Climate, landscape, and natural resources are essential, but also political factors such as governance, corruption, trade laws, and political stability. Being landlocked does not mean a country cannot build a strong economy and trade with the rest of the world. There are many examples of countries in challenging geographies that have still developed strong economies with high levels of human development. The Netherlands is a small country, where around 20 percent of its current land has been reclaimed from the sea or lakes, but it is one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products. Costa Rica is surrounded by countries torn apart by armed conflict, but it does not even have an army. Similarly, although history is a critical defining factor in forming political, social, and economic relations, it does not need to dictate whether nations live in peace or conflict with each other in the same geographical regions. The legacy of the past can be transformed to generate new ideas and opportunities for living in peace in the future. There are many examples of regions where countries experienced historical enmities but built new types of relations to live side by side and prosper together. They even managed to form alliances and economic cooperation organizations, such as the European Union.
Topic:
International Cooperation, History, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Geography, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
South Caucasus

721. What Is Public Diplomacy? Fostering Cooperation, Countering Disinformation

Author:
Alan K. Henrikson
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Among the various kinds of diplomacy, one of the newest to be designated with a distinct name is “public diplomacy.” This is a supportive function, for like an actor in the theatre, the public diplomat plays a part. It may be a significant part, but rarely if ever is it the ‘lead.’ Public diplomacy assists leaders and senior officials of governments and of international organizations by presenting and explaining their policies and, more broadly, managing the communications aspects of their strategies. Public diplomacy work—the role of which is mainly informational—nowadays has included cultural interaction and educational exchange as well. For some countries, those functions have been handled somewhat separately, even at arm’s length, from political representation and policy promotion (e.g., the British Council, Alliance Française, Goethe Institut, Instituto Cervantes, and Confucius Institute). Public diplomacy is not, I wish to emphasize, merely instrumental—a means to any end. It is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. Public diplomacy is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. There are objective standards in the world, including those of natural science and scholarly knowledge, to which it may owe its convincingness. Because public diplomacy operates in the judgmental realm of popular opinion, which in the globalized world of today is more and more universal in scope, it must, in order to be effective, appeal to the reason, tastes, values, and aspirations of peoples of different traditions in distant s o c i e t i e s — o v e r whom no formal or direct political authority is held or control exercised. Its objectives must be achieved noncoercively and for the most part openly, through public media and transparent private communication. It works primarily through persuasion and attraction, rather than by command, employment of force, or subterfuge. That is not to deny that manipulation can occur, as with military “information operations.” Insofar as public diplomacy succeeds in assisting a government or an organization to achieve its purposes, it is, despite its noncoerciveness, powerful. Influence over minds, from the level of the individual to that of society, is an ultimate arbiter. “Public opinion,” as Napoleon Bonaparte famously advised, “is the thermometer a monarch should constantly consult.” Today’s leaders, irrespective of the type of regime or political form in which they operate, can rise or fall according to it
Topic:
International Cooperation, Disinformation, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

722. Karabakh and Azerbaijani Statecraf

Author:
Michael M. Gunter
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
This brief article seeks to make two important and related points. The first is that the international law principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity hold that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, despite misleading arguments to the contrary about supposed Armenian rights of self-determination. The second provides a partial assessment of Heydar Aliyev’s legacy and how it relates to some of the policies pursued by his successor, Ilham Aliyev. Each will be examined in turn.
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

723. Statesmanship in the Silk Road Region: Reflections on Heydar Aliyev’s Achievement

Author:
Rodrigo Labardini
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
I began writing this essay near the end of a triple jubilee year for Heydar Aliyev: the centenary of his birth, the thirtieth anniversary of his return to Baku (celebrated as National Salvation Day), and the twentieth anniversary of his death. Heydar Aliyev was a significant leader who left a lasting impact in the Caucasus region—not just in Azerbaijan. Heydar Aliyev was indispensable in shaping Azerbaijan’s vision for the future and establishing the country as a vital player in the Silk Road region. Several key traits (in the final part of this essay, I identify nine such traits) characterized his leadership style and contributed to his success, particularly in navigating the complex dynamics of the region between East and West, oil and energy, and its future development. Heydar Aliyev’s presence in Azerbaijan’s history represents a leader who was able to quell civil war and unrest and offer stability to the country, which became instrumental in launching the economic growth, and development of the country—and eventually of the region. These, in turn, enabled several things, including improved living standards, putting Azerbaijan on the global energy map, and significantly modernizing its military. Azerbaijan has demonstrated to the world that sustained economic efforts, accompanied by political patience and apt international analysis and evaluation of the world’s political situation, made true—in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic—the “day for which all Azerbaijani people were waiting,” namely the return of Karabakh.
Topic:
Development, History, Natural Resources, Leadership, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

724. Heydar Aliyev’s Energy and Infrastructure Strategy

Author:
Vitaliy Baylarbayov
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
National Leader Heydar Aliyev had an exceptional understanding of foreign policy and national security dynamics. Through his strategic vision, he was able to lead the Republic of Azerbaijan from a situation of state collapse at independence to one characterized by political, economic, and security viability. Moreover, Heydar Aliyev’s geopolitical strategy enabled Azerbaijan to conduct independent policies, not dictated by any regional or global power. In support of his geopolitical strategic vision, Heydar Aliyev conceived of and executed an energy and infrastructure strategy that enabled Azerbaijan to become a major oil and natural gas producer and, in turn, to change the energy map of the Caspian region and the European continent. The core of this policy was the establishment of the East-West corridor from the Caspian region through Georgia and Türkiye to the West.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Planning, and Energy
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

725. Foreign Interference Online: Where Disinformation Infringes on Freedom of Thought

Author:
Wesley Wark
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
“Foreign interference targeting democratic societies works not by the classic Orwellian formula of ruthless powers limiting sources of information and knowledge,” Wesley Wark writes, but by “multiplying and amplifying chosen channels of information, and attempting to corrupt the availability of true information in favour of that which is both false and harmful.” At their most intense, disinformation campaigns amount to “cognitive warfare, a hostile attempt to alter thinking.” In a social media–saturated world, these operations find many and diverse channels for disinformation’s spread, which depends on the inculcation of “fearful unknowing” in the targeted, often vulnerable, audience. A campaign’s objectives might be both direct and indirect: an aim to influence electoral outcomes could overlap with a broader goal to undermine confidence in democratic processes. Public attention to the issue of foreign state interference, as recently experienced in Canada and currently the subject of a judicial inquiry, is the first indicator that freedom of thought principles might be in play. Wark suggests ways to counter these campaigns, beginning with government taking the lead in enhancing public understanding of all national security threats, including those posed by disinformation.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Democracy, Internet, Social Media, Disinformation, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Canada and Global Focus

726. Protecting Freedom of Thought: Mitigating Technological Enablers of Disinformation

Author:
Alexa Raad
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
It has been said that a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes. Social media and internet ad-supported business models that capitalize on capturing attention have introduced powerful technological enablers that are supercharging the targeting, dissemination and amplification of false information online. Influence operations have been quick to use these tools to manipulate and compromise freedom of thought. Assuming these ad-based business models are here to stay, at least for now, steps must be taken to address the problematic elements that influence operators are leveraging. Remediation efforts must both prevent amplification of harmful content, and increase the risk, cost and complexity to the influence operator. Alexa Raad describes frameworks that can be used to analyze the stages, tactics, techniques and procedures used in influence operations, and outlines the need in the United States for regulation in four areas — actions which, alongside effective public-private collaboration and increased media literacy, would help to “mitigate the pollution of our information ecosystem and protect our freedom of thought.”
Topic:
Security, Governance, Regulation, Internet, Disinformation, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

727. Conceptualizing Global Governance of AI

Author:
Maral Niazi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Merging artificial intelligence (AI) and global governance, global AI governance focuses on defining terms to deepen understanding, promote collaboration and create informed policies. It emphasizes multi-stakeholder and multi-level cooperation in managing AI’s global impacts. AI’s societal impacts are broad, offering exceptional benefits while carrying unintended risks. Its rise poses geopolitical challenges, affecting transparency, privacy and power dynamics in both democratic and non-democratic states. Empirical and normative research is essential in forming global AI governance, guiding ethical values and legal practices for ethical data use and unbiased algorithm development. Empirical research provides verifiable knowledge through data and experiences, highlighting regime complexities in an anarchic system of global governance, meaning a system with no central authority. Normative research examines values and norms, assessing AI systems’ trustworthiness and ethical compliance. Multilateral cooperation in global AI governance involves collaborative efforts among numerous actors to establish universally accepted norms and policies for AI. An institutional framework for global AI governance should incorporate lessons from international organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the European Organization for Nuclear Research/Conseil européen pour la recherche nucléaire to guide AI’s ethical development and deployment within and beyond national borders. ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, Multilateral Relations, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

728. The Climate Policy Crisis: Governing Disinformation in the Digital Age

Author:
Andrew Heffernan
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Climate change is the quintessential global challenge, while also perhaps the issue that has experienced the most polarization in recent years. Therefore, understanding the way broader global politics manifest through tools such as social media and consequently impact policy making, becomes integral to effectively fighting the climate crisis. While climate change must be countered through effective mitigation and adaptation approaches at the local, national and global levels, implementing effective policies to do so can only be accomplished through buy-in by a critical mass of citizens. Disinformation campaigns have, however, increasingly been targeted at issues that fall along partisan lines and climate change has been a particularly polarizing issue. Research presented in this paper demonstrates ways in which efforts to misinform and disinform the public are becoming both increasingly prevalent as well as effective. The polarization that is being stoked by misinformation campaigns on social media is the most serious threat to fighting climate change. New policies and approaches for policy development and implementation will be required to match the alacrity of the proliferating online flows of misinformation and disinformation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Disinformation, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

729. Data Disquiet: Concerns about the Governance of Data for Generative AI

Author:
Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The growing popularity of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about their accuracy. These chatbots can be used to provide information, but it may be tainted by errors or made-up or false information (hallucinations) caused by problematic data sets or incorrect assumptions made by the model. The questionable results produced by chatbots has led to growing disquiet among users, developers and policy makers. The author argues that policy makers need to develop a systemic approach to address these concerns. The current piecemeal approach does not reflect the complexity of LLMs or the magnitude of the data upon which they are based, therefore, the author recommends incentivizing greater transparency and accountability around data-set development.
Topic:
Accountability, Transparency, Artificial Intelligence, Data Governance, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

730. Digital Governance: Technology Tensions with China and Implications

Author:
Alex He and Robert Fay
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
As a superpower that is deeply integrated in global supply chains, China is becoming an economic giant, but its use of technology to capture data using methods that may pose cyber- and national security risks is raising concerns. While some view China’s motivations as an attempt to advance its status from an upper-middle-income economy to a developed economy, others see more nefarious intentions behind its authoritarian, top-down governance model. Further complicating the situation is the growing technology competition between China, the United States and Europe over the control of data, the technologies that use this data and the values upon which they should be used. The Centre for International Governance Innovation’s second annual conference on Digital Governance in China explored these and other issues related to the global implications of China’s governance model in the digital age.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China and Asia

731. New Logics for Governing Human Discourse in the Online Era

Author:
Richard Reisman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The democratization of access to online media tools is driving a transformation of human discourse that is disrupting freedom of thought. This shift in the flow of thought is being encoded into a global infrastructure dominated by commercial platform companies whose operations co-opt individual, collective and governmental agency. In this policy brief, Richard Reisman argues that attempts to govern these tools are relying on “yesterday’s logic.” The new logic, largely unrecognized, relates to acceleration of word-of-mouth propagation, much like rumouring, putting the listener’s freedom of impression, rather than the speaker’s freedom of expression, at the fore. Reisman writes that governance is needed to restore individual and community agency, which could re-energize the vision of technology as “bicycles for our minds,” enabling individuals and society to flourish and maintain resilience in an increasingly challenging world.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Internet, Emerging Technology, and Discourse
Political Geography:
Global Focus

732. Machine-Learning Theory and Its Policy Implications

Author:
Naod Abraham
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The goal of this paper is to present an intuitive summary of computational learning theory, and its application for analyzing the most popular learning algorithms in machine learning, neural networks. This paper assumes no mathematical background or knowledge of machine learning from the reader. Throughout the paper, the important sections are presented using a pyramid approach (that is, in three levels). After introducing each major idea/topic, its policy implications and connection to Canada’s law are discussed. Finally, a summary of Canada’s relevant artificial intelligence law, with a case example, is given.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Digital Policy, Emerging Technology, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

733. Competing Ideas: Canada’s Competition Reform Conversation

Author:
Vass Bednar and Keldon Bester
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The Government of Canada’s recent review of and updates to the Competition Act have sparked a closer examination of how competition is protected and promoted in Canada. Competition affects all Canadians, especially in the face of rising costs of living and a shrinking number of competitors in key markets. Yet the laws that govern competition are not easily understood by average consumers, leaving them out of the public policy conversation. This paper looks at why better competition law is needed and examines previous reform efforts.
Topic:
Markets, Reform, Public Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

734. Breaking Barriers: The Link between Stronger IPRs and Trade in Services

Author:
Olena Ivus
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
As innovation becomes more prevalent and systematically integrated into service industries, service firms increasingly turn to intellectual property rights (IPRs) as a means of safeguarding their intellectual assets. The reliance on these legal rights becomes even more pronounced when service companies endeavour to expand their global reach and tap into international markets where the protection of IPRs is relatively weak, and imitation is more widespread. Disparities in the level of IPRs protection and enforcement across countries can pose significant barriers to cross-border trade and investment in service sectors where the safeguarding of intellectual property (IP) is fundamental. The risk of IP infringement and the limited protection afforded to patents, copyrights and trademarks in certain countries can discourage the expansion of businesses into these markets, limiting the overall growth and accessibility of services in those areas. This paper studies the relationship between trade in services and the strength of IPRs protection at the international level. More specifically, it uses data for 94 countries over the period of 1990–2010 to put forward new empirical evidence about the impact of global strengthening of IPRs protection on cross-border trade in services.
Topic:
Intellectual Property/Copyright, Investment, Trade, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

735. Beyond the Quasi-Alliance? An Analysis of the Japan-Australia Special Strategic Partnership

Author:
Daisuke Akimoto
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article examines a pathway of the Japan-Australia “special strategic partnership” in recent years. Both countries have developed a special strategic partnership, referred to as a “quasi-alliance”. Hence, the purpose of this research is to contextualise the development of the Australia-Japan quasi-alliance from global, regional, and bilateral perspectives. Globally, the quasi-alliance has been influenced by power transition and hegemonic competition in global politics. Regionally, the quasi-alliance has been embedded into the trilateral and multilateral strategic frameworks in the Indo-Pacific. Bilaterally, the quasi-alliance has been shaped by the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation (JDSC). Nonetheless, close security ties were temporarily adrift over Australia’s submarine deal and realigned by tangible milestones, such as the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and the new JDSC signed off in 2022. While investigating these footsteps of the quasialliance formation, this article considers whether both countries have moved beyond the quasi-alliance toward a full military alliance in the changing strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Quad Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Australia

736. The Regional Security Complex Theory and Energy Triangle of EU-TurkeyRussia

Author:
Mehmet Ferhat Fırat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This study explores the application of the regional security complex theory (RCST) to the energy relations between the European Union (EU), Russia, and Turkey. It underscores the critical role of energy security in shaping international relations and highlights the mutual interdependence among these actors in the energy issue. The study sheds light on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy security and emphasizes the need for diversification of energy sources to reduce dependency on Russian natural gas. Turkey's active and neutral policy with Russia has formed a security complex in energy relations among these three actors. The claim that shared concerns or threat perceptions among actors assumed by the regional security complex theory constitutes a security complex has been used within the framework of this study to justify the existence of an energy security complex between Turkey, Russia, and the EU. Furthermore, given its strategic geographical position and energy infrastructure projects, this research outlines Turkey's potential as a critical isolator actor and energy hub in the region. Overall, this study offers valuable insights into the complex dynamics of energy relations and the evolving regional energy security landscape in the EU-Russia-Turkey triangle.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Security, Energy Security, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Turkey

737. NATO PA's Role in Consolidating Article 2 of the Atlantic Alliance Treaty

Author:
Nuno Alberto Rodrigues Santos Loureiro
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Article 2 of the North Atlantic Treaty, also known as the Washington Treaty, stipulates that international relations between member states should be conducted peacefully and with mutual respect, based on free institutions, thus creating conditions of stability, security, and satisfaction within the Alliance. It also promotes the elimination of opposition factors about international economic policies, which, in turn, are based on a collaborative foundation. Despite this more peaceful premise, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is, above all, a collective defence alliance, and over its 74-year history, there have been no further commitments that would allow for more integration despite the shared common values that were at its inception. The Parliamentary Assembly of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO PA) is an Interparliamentary Organisation (IPO) that acts independently of the North Atlantic Alliance but brings together parliamentarians from its member states and associates. Although its resolutions are merely recommendatory and advisory in nature, they have provided crucial strategic input into NATO's action, allowing parliaments to properly reflect on the organization's interests and strategies in national debates.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

738. The Judgment of Climate Change on Food Availability in Nigeria

Author:
Olubunmi David Apeloko, Celestina Ekene Chukwudi, Fadeke Esther Olu-Owolabi, and Samuel Ezennia
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Climate change is a global phenomenon that has significant implications for food security, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. This study is set to explore the nature of the relationship between climate change and food security and the various ways to address the impact of climate change on food availability in Ogun State, Nigeria. Relying on the green theory, this study investigated climate change's impact on the agricultural sector, compromising food security in Ogun State, Nigeria. This study's qualitative data collection methods include primary and secondary data sources. This study adopted the exploratory research design. Interviews were used to gather primary data, and existing literature was used to collate secondary data. This work covered the staff of the Ministry of Agriculture in the selected state, lecturers in the Department of Economics, Covenant University, and the faculty of agriculture at Obafemi Awolowo University. The thematic content analysis was adopted in analyzing the data in this study. The findings from the data revealed that there is a clear relationship between climate change and food security. It also revealed that climate change has a negative impact on food availability in Ogun State, Nigeria. In addition, strategies and policies put in place to address the issues of climate change and food security were discussed. It was concluded that climate change has affected Ogun State's food security between 2019 and 2023.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

739. State Intervention in the Public and Private Spheres in Times of Crisis: Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:
Dilber Akbaba
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Especially in times of crisis, states can influence the public and private spheres by relying on their legitimacy power. Aside from its emergence and importance for humanity, the state reshapes individuals' private and public spheres by influencing them. The reshaped public and private spheres undoubtedly require a new perspective. Whether these areas have changed, the fate of their boundaries and the approach of individuals and the state to these areas may differ between ordinary and extraordinary periods. In the emergence of differences, the current understanding of governance is as important as how the state perceives its people and how the people perceive the state. Because these perceptions affect the parties' expectations in ordinary and crisis periods, criticism or acceptance develops due to the actual practices. In this article, the Covid-19 pandemic has been defined as a crisis period, and the Republic of Türkiye has been chosen as the subject whose policies implemented during the crisis period have been observed. The study examines the state's authority to intervene in the public and private sphere boundaries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the changes in these boundaries. Within the scope of the article, the study carried out in this direction examines how the edges of the public and private spheres were affected by the state's interventions/practices/policies during the Covid-19 crisis.
Topic:
Crisis Management, COVID-19, Public Space, Private Space, and State Intervention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

740. Defining Peace: A content analysis of Brazil's, China's, and the European Union's discourses on the Ukraine War

Author:
Luis Gouveia Junior
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many political leaders have vowed to settle this conflict. Although Brazil, China, and the European Union were among these voices, some have accused these international actors of propelling the war. This study offers a content analysis of the speeches proffered by Lula da Silva, Ursula Von der Leyen, and Xi Jinping, the political leaders of these three actors. This analysis concluded that Ursula Von der Leyen mentions peace fewer times, accounts solely for Russia’s responsibility for the war, and presents a perspective akin to International Relations neoliberal theory. Meanwhile, Lula da Silva provides some views closer to Johan Galtung’s theories. Nevertheless, the Brazilian president does not clearly explain the beginning of the war, affirming that negotiation is the pathway to peace. Finally, Xi Jinping stresses his Global Security Initiative and avoids calling “war” what is happening in Ukraine.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Peace, Russia-Ukraine War, and Discourse Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Brazil

741. How the International Investment Law Regime Undermines Access to Justice for Investment-Affected Stakeholders

Author:
Ladan Mehranvar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
For over a decade now, the international investment law regime, which includes investment treaties and their central pillar, the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism, has been facing sustained calls for reform. These have largely centered on the concerns regarding the high costs of ISDS, the restrictions placed by the investment treaty regime on the right—or duty—of states to regulate in the public interest, and the questionable benefits arising from these treaties in the first place. Several states have taken proactive measures: some have revised investment treaty standards to better protect their regulatory powers;1 others have introduced new approaches to investment promotion, protection, and dispute settlement that more closely align with their sustainable development objectives;2 and some states have withdrawn from the investment treaty regime altogether.3 In addition, reforms to the regime are taking place at the multilateral level within the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL),4 the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),5 the World Trade Organization (WTO),6 and through other regional fora.7 Despite being the subject of extensive and prolonged public debate for several years, these reforms have continued to reinforce the binary structure of the regime. This structure restricts the focus of investment relations solely to investors and host states, disregarding the actual or potential impacts of investment projects, relations, disputes and awards on the rights and interests of other impacted stakeholders. In particular, large-scale, land-based investment projects involve a broad network of people and relations, and often intersect with local communities whose social identity, way of life, and livelihoods are intimately connected to the land and natural resources at stake.8 It is this category of investments, which result in the creation of a new “project” with a large land footprint, that is the topic of this paper. The consequences of these types of investments can be significant, as they often lead to land expropriations, negative human health consequences, water pollution, air contamination, deforestation, or shifts in migration patterns within the area,9 thereby impacting the rights and interests of people in these communities and the environment more broadly. From the perspective of investment-affected communities,10 foreign investments arise out of a partnership between the investor and the state.11 After all, it is the government that facilitates the establishment and development of these very projects. Meanwhile, these impacted people are often not consulted or involved in project establishment or development, and many may not even know that a project has been approved until after it has been approved or once it is operational. According to scholarship in this area,12 these affected individuals and communities often find themselves in a situation where they must assert their rights against the negative impacts of such projects, or resist these projects by mobilizing, protesting, or resorting to legal (and non-legal) measures against the investor and/or the state. This dynamic is frequently reflected in investment disputes, in which foreign investors challenge measures that state agencies have taken in response to, inter alia, local opposition to investments, in an attempt to safeguard their economic interests.13 However, even though the underlying investments, government measures, ISDS disputes, and any resulting awards often implicate local people and communities in profound ways, these stakeholders find it difficult, if not impossible, to assert their rights and have their concerns addressed in investment policy making, in the establishment or continuation of investment projects, and in any ensuing investor-state disputes that may arise under investment treaties (or investment contracts). In fact, the voices of investment-affected people are effectively, and in most cases, actually excluded from the “institutional logic” of the investment treaty regime.14 This is because of the narrow scope of the applicable treaties and the limited consideration given to human rights and domestic legal frameworks in ISDS proceedings. In addition, these communities often encounter legal and practical obstacles when seeking to protect their rights and interests under other instruments and fora, like international human rights law, or domestic and regional judicial systems. This is because victories won by investment-affected communities at these other fora are often pyrrhic since they may ultimately be undermined by the investment treaty regime if or when the investor succeeds in its ISDS claim. It is this local dimension, which has received little attention in public debate and action on reform at the global, regional, and national levels, that is the focus of this paper. We draw on a group of 13 investor-state claims (and two potential claims)15 that relate to the rights and interests of impacted communities and identify ways in which their access to justice is undermined, hampered or denied entirely by the ISDS mechanism.16 Before describing the ways that access to justice is undermined or denied in these ISDS cases, we first define the term “access to justice” below.
Topic:
Human Rights, Law, Investment, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
Global Focus

742. Harms from Concentrated Industries: A Primer

Author:
Denise Hearn
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Clashes between dominant firms exercising private power across the economy, and regulatory agencies tasked with preserving democracy have oscillated in ferocity throughout history. Today there is widespread recognition that in many markets, concentrated private economic and political power has yielded a range of anti-democratic, anti-innovation, and inequitable outcomes for consumers, workers, and smaller businesses. A vast literature1 now documents the macroeconomic and social harms from concentrated markets. As a 2019 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report states, “further increases in the market power of already-powerful firms could weaken investment, deter innovation, reduce labor income shares, and make it more difficult for monetary policy to stabilize output.”2 Competition policy, or antitrust, is a subset of a broader anti-monopoly agenda, and an important foundation for the functioning of fair markets. How its laws are crafted, interpreted, and enforced has substantial economic and social effects at local and regional levels, as well as national and international levels. The way that competition policy is written, interpreted, and applied has wider societal impacts beyond competition, including effects on democracy, economic inequality, growth and innovation, racial and gender imbalances, privacy, geopolitical implications and more. Competition policy also has redistributive economic effects between stakeholders, often privileging the largest corporate actors and their shareholders at the expense of other stakeholders.3 As the largest global firms have grown in size and reach, many national jurisdictions have set up competition authorities. In the last four decades, more than 120 legal systems have created competition rules, establishing National Competition Authorities (NCA) across a significant portion of countries.4 However, competition policy includes, but is not limited to, antitrust enforcement. It can also include a broader set of legislative and regulatory reforms which provide market guardrails that protect consumers, workers, independent businesses, and fair market dealing.5 The recently introduced Digital Markets Act in the EU is an example of competition policy using additional regulatory layers to protect the rights of consumers, start ups, and to spur innovation and economic growth. Today, competition policy and antitrust law are experiencing new political potency as various global jurisdictions have strengthened and enhanced their enforcement regimes.6 New market realities like digital market platform gatekeepers, the financialization of firms, the rise of private equity, resurgent labor movements, trade wars and industrial policy, and sustainability challenges, among others, have forced reconsiderations of how to adapt competition policy to meet new 21st century market realities. Competition policy’s narrow focus on consumer welfare (typically defined as low prices)7 over the last 40-50 years saw technological giants ascend to new heights with little to no scrutiny or challenges to mergers. A focus on lowering prices for consumers meant that new assetization strategies – such as monetizing a user’s attention while offering “free” products – went ungoverned by competition regulators. Non-price effects from concentrated markets like: threats to democracy or privacy, and effects on worker’s rights or the environment were mostly ignored. Mergers largely went unchallenged, leading to concentration across many sectors of the economy which is well documented in the US,8 Canada,9 and Europe10 and increasingly so in other jurisdictions. As so-called “superstar firms” have come to dominate national and global economies – in part due to a lack of strong countervailing regulatory structures and antitrust enforcement, and in part due to new network effects or economies of scale and scope in financial, digital, and other markets – many large companies are now akin to para-state institutions, which set the terms and norms of markets, acting as de facto private regulators. Global collective action problems like inequality, climate change, and biodiversity loss, which threaten the ecological and social thresholds upon which open societies are built, have also challenged the status quo of competition policy interpretation and enforcement. This presents a moment of political opportunity for a new vision, which asserts a concerted challenge to the ways in which concentrated corporate power undermines healthy economic, political, and social functioning across a range of industries. An anti-monopoly policy agenda ensures that markets operate on fair and competitive terms, that they reward innovation, create widely shared ownership and prosperity, and allow the best ideas, products, and services to flourish. Markets are public creations, governed by democratically determined rules. Anyone can be an anti-monopolist and participate in the active governance and shaping of markets, and there is now a wide global community of people who identify as such. At the end of this document we list some civil society organizations that are working to foreground anti-monopoly policy approaches and to build communities of practice, for those interested in learning more. Below, some of the harms from market concentration are outlined, as well as industryspecific or thematic considerations in technology, agriculture, and trade.
Topic:
Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Business, and Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

743. Billion-Dollar Exposure: Investor-State Dispute Settlement in Mozambique’s Fossil Fuel Sector

Author:
Lea Di Salvatore and Maria Julia Gubeissi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Mozambique is endowed with extensive untapped natural resources, particularly gas and coal. The country’s gamble on fossil fuel-based economic growth comes with signiicant economic risks and crowds out investments in the country’s enormous renewable energy potential. ◆Mozambique faces a substantial economic risk due to its exposure to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims by foreign investors in its coal, oil, and gas sectors. The investment protections in the country’s international investment agreements and contracts, combined with ISDS, expose Mozambique to multi-billion-dollar financial liabilities. Even conservative estimations show that potential ISDS liabilities from oil and gas projects would cover almost a decade of Mozambique’s government expenditures for SDGs. ◆ Mozambique’s international investment agreements and publicly available oil, gas, and coal contracts allow foreign investors to bypass the national judicial system and bring multi-billion-dollar ISDS claims against Mozambique. Such claims can result in significant costs for the country, and they also have a considerable chilling effect on any new public-interest regulation in areas such as health, environment, community rights or labor protections. ISDS can undermine attempts to adopt meaningul legislation to transition away from fossil fuels and achieve sustainable development goals. This regime can therefore contribute to locking the country into a high-carbon economy. ◆In addition, multiple stabilization clauses in the analyzed contracts lock the operations into specific legal and fiscal regimes for the duration of the contracts. Stabilization clauses protect investments from unexpected regulatory changes or new fiscal rules. If a host state does introduce such changes, stabilization clauses allow investors to demand measures or compensation that would ensure their same profitability absent such changes. These clauses thus exacerbate the limits to – and chilling effect on – states’ public interest regulation. ◆Mozambique and other countries can take actions to remove ISDS from their contracts and treaties, replacing the mechanism with alternative dispute resolution mechanisms. They can also take steps to terminate investment agreements in force. Home countries of Mozambique’s foreign investors have a responsibility to support such action, especially as they, themselves, remove ISDS from their own treaties.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Gas, Investment, Fossil Fuels, Coal, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

744. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options

Author:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

745. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 12

Author:
Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hazrat Bilal
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
The Pak Institute for Peace Studies held its 12th quarterly consultation on “Afghan peace and reconciliation: Pakistan’s interests and policy options” in Islamabad on March 15, 2024. The consultation focused on two main themes: “Pakistan’s Afghan policy puzzle: challenges and opportunities for the new government” and “The counterterrorism and counter-extremism challenges for the new federal and provincial governments.” Participants included lawmakers from national and provincial assemblies, diplomats, retired miltary officials, academics, journalists, policy analysts, and experts on Afghan affairs. The distinguished speakers talked about the policy challenges confronting the new government. They were particularly skeptical about the new government’s ability to formulate the country’s Afghan policy, and were worried about surging terrorism in the country, India's increasing influence in Afghanistan, province-center worsening relations, and Pakistan’s deteriorating relations with the neighboring countries. In the first session, the discussion revolved around how the newly formed coalition government will address critical issues such as countering terrorism and improving relations with Afghanistan and other neighboring countries. The need for a solution to Balochistan problem was highlighted. Apart from that, various factors leading to worsening relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan were discussed, for instance the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) factor, deportation of Afghan refugees, border insecurity, and cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan. The participants also linked the success of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to peace in the region. Pakistan's failure to extend goodwill into Afghanistan was termed a significant problem. It was argued that Pakistan's forceful expulsion of Afghan refugees significantly eroded Pakistan's good image in Afghanistan. The participants urged the government to take political ownership of foreign and internal policies and strengthen the role of parliament in order to set things right both at home and abroad. However, they lamented the inability of the political government to assert itself, thereby allowing space to non-democratic forces to decide unilaterally on critical matters. In the second session, the consultation focused on the counterterrorism policies in the center and provinces. The prevailing antagonistic relations between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the coalition government in Islamabad were thought to prevent the formation of an effective counterterrorism policy. Speakers also highlighted how India is exploiting the situation by funneling funds to the TPP through Afghanistan, which has led to a significant surge in the terrorist activities in Pakistan. Improving trade relations with Afghanistan also came under the discussion, and it was advised to reduce hurdles in bilateral trade which will benefit not only Afghanistan but Pakistan as well. It was also highlighted that although there is peace in a political sense in Afghanistan, poverty and economic decay have increased during the Taliban government. In the last minutes of the discussion, it was underscored that the Afghan Taliban deliberately designate Pakistan as their enemy and capitalize on this rhetoric to divert the attention of Afghans away from the system they are implementing, which might lead to further destitution.
Topic:
Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Refugees, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

746. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 11

Author:
Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hina Saleem
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
This report is outcome of the 11th PIPS-led structured consultation out of a series of twelve such events that have been designed to discuss and critically evaluate evolving aspects of Afghan conflict and political reconciliation and suggest policy options and strategies to the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. To that end, PIPS has established a network of credible resource persons including former diplomats, academicians, government officials, and representatives of political and religious parties, security and law enforcement agencies, civil society, and media, as well as those living at the border including Afghan refugees. The underlying goal is to support Afghan peace and reconciliation and tackle its trickle-down effect for Pakistan including in terms of militancy and insecurity, among other things.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Refugees, Conflict, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

747. Episode 7: The Racial Muslim

Author:
Sahar Aziz and Deborah Amos
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Religious bigotry in the U.S. racializes Muslims and Arabs – particularly those in immigrant communities. This week’s episode tackles an ongoing trend where racism quashes religious freedom. Host Sahar Aziz and longtime war correspondent and Princeton journalism Professor Deborah Amos discuss the groundbreaking phenomenon of “The Racial Muslim: When Racism Quashes Religious Freedom” through an historical and comparative approach that demonstrates how race and religion intersect.
Topic:
Islam, Race, Religion, Immigrants, and Freedom of Religion
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

748. Legacies of the Vietnam War - Napalm Girl: After the Dragons Left

Author:
Phan Thi Kim Phuc, Nick Ut, Fox Butterfield, and Tony Bui
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
A discussion featuring Kim Phuc, the focal point of one of the most iconic photographs of the 20th century, captured on June 8, 1972, in Trang Bang, Vietnam. On this day, a napalm attack led to a moment frozen in time by photographer Nick Ut, showcasing the tragic human cost of war. Together with Kim Phuc, we will explore the enduring legacy and significance of this photograph, examining its impact on public perception of war, its role in shaping anti-war movements, and its continued relevance in today's global discourse on peace and reconciliation. The panel will give different perspectives on the power of imagery in historical memory and the journey of healing and advocacy that followed one of history's most turbulent periods.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Media, Conflict, Vietnam War, and Photojournalism
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

749. Legacies of the Vietnam War - Scars of War in Indochina

Author:
George Black, Elizabeth Becker, Sera Koulabdara, and Peter Osnos
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
What are the impacts and lasting effects of the bombardments of Agent Orange, napalm, and other explosive ordnance on Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam? How has this affected the country and its people? What can we learn from what has happened and how do we move forward from here? In this panel, we get perspectives from leaders who have insider knowledge on the legacies of war.
Topic:
Vietnam War, Post-Conflict, Napalm, and Agent Orange
Political Geography:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, and Laos

750. Legacies of the Vietnam War - War Reporting: Lessons from Vietnam

Author:
Peter Arnett, Fox Butterfield, Edith Lederer, Nancy Trieu Giang Bui, Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, and James Bennet
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
How did the harsh reality of the Vietnam War change war reporting, and how did these changes affect reporting for generations to come? What lessons in Vietnam remain relevant in today's war coverage? This panel features renowned Vietnam War journalists Peter Arnett, Fox Butterfield, Edith Lederer, and Nancy Trieu Giang Bui, as they explore the evolution of war reporting from the Vietnam War to contemporary conflicts. Through their firsthand experiences, the panelists will discuss the challenges, ethical dilemmas, and transformative lessons learned in the field. This discussion hopes to shed light on the significant impact of journalism in times of war and how historical insights can guide today's war correspondents.
Topic:
Media, Ethics, Conflict, Journalism, and Vietnam War
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

751. Korea: A New History of South and North – A Book Talk by Victor Cha and Ramon Pacheco Pardo

Author:
Victor D. Cha, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, and Jonathan Corrado
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Victor Cha and Ramon Pacheco Pardo will talk about their new book, Korea: A New History of South and North, which charts the balance of power politics that ravaged Korea in the late 19th-early 20th centuries, the division of the two Koreas and their divergent paths thereafter. The book also includes original data on unification and how the great powers view a future single Korea.
Topic:
History, Power Politics, Conflict, Unification, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

752. Mainline Islam: Islamic Associational Life in Indonesia

Author:
Kevin W. Fogg and Sidney Jone
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Indonesian Islam has a unique structure in its associational life, in the form of mass Islamic organizations. The most well-known of these, NU and Muhammadiyah, are frequently heralded by politicians and scholars as pillars of religious life and civil society in Indonesia, but there are many similar organizations that function on a provincial or regional level in a similar capacity. This project draws in a comparative study of three regional mass Islamic organizations—Jamiyatul Washliyah founded in Medan, Nahdlatul Ulama based on Lombok, and Alkhairaat headquartered in Palu—to draw broader conclusions about the nature of Islamic associational life in Indonesia, how Indonesian organizations differ from Islamic groups in other countries, and how Islamic organizations in Indonesia have changed over the last century. The project also uses a comparison with American Protestantism, the so-called “Mainline Protestant Denominations,” to articulate a category of organization that is normative in Indonesia but unknown elsewhere in the Islamic world: “mainline” Islamic organizations.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Domestic Politics, and Religious Organizations
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

753. Is Guanxi Changing? Referral Hiring and Social Networks in China

Author:
Elena Obukhova and Yao Lu
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
What is the role of guanxi in China today? To answer this question, Professor Elena Obukhova examines the relationship between social networks and referral hiring. In the first study, she compares China and the US. In the second study, she explores differences between China’s provinces. This event is part of the 2023-2024 lecture series on “Labor Market Transformations in China" and is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:
Markets, Labor Issues, Social Networks, and Hiring
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

754. Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control

Author:
Dali Yang, Qin Gao, Junyan Jiang, and Xiaobo Lü
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic, which began as an outbreak in Wuhan in late 2019, has claimed millions of lives and caused unprecedented disruptions. Despite its generation-defining significance, there has been a surprising lack of independent research examining the decisions and measures implemented in the weeks leading up to the Wuhan lockdown, as well as the missteps and shortcomings that allowed the novel coronavirus to spread with minimal hindrance. In this book talk, Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control, Dali L. Yang scrutinizes China's emergency response to the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, delving into the government's handling of epidemic information and the decisions that influenced the scale and scope of the outbreak. Yang's research reveals that China's health decision-makers and experts had an excellent head start when they implemented a health emergency action program to respond to the outbreak at the end of December 2019. With granular detail and compelling immediacy, Yang investigates the political and bureaucratic processes that hindered information flows and sharing, as well as the cognitive framework that limited understanding of the virus's contagiousness and hampered effective decisions and enabled the outbreak to spiral out of control.
Topic:
Government, Crisis Management, Bureaucracy, COVID-19, Decision-Making, Zero-COVID, and Emergencies
Political Geography:
China and Asia

755. China and Latin America: A New Assessment

Author:
Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado and Xiaobo Lü
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Parsifal D'Sola, a MARSEA alum, will deliver a presentation offering a general overview of the current state and prospective trends in China-Latin America relations. The talk will explore the evolving interactions and strategic dynamics between China and Latin American countries, highlighting developments over the past two decades. Key areas of discussion include the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America and the peripheral effects of US-China tensions on the region. An important aspect of the presentation will be examining the diverse perceptions of China across Latin American countries and how these views influence bilateral relations and policy decisions. D'Sola will also share his thoughts on future trends, offering a broad perspective on the likely course of China's engagement with Latin America in the coming years. Speaker's Bio: Parsifal D’Sola is the founder and executive director of the Andres Bello Foundation – China Latin America Research Center in Bogota, Colombia. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Parsifal is a Chinese foreign policy analyst specializing in Sino-Latin American relations with a focus on Venezuela. Between 2019 and 2020, he acted as Chinese foreign policy advisor to the Foreign Affairs Minister of the Interim Government of Venezuela. He holds a BS in Telecommunications Engineering from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, an MA in East Asian Studies from Columbia University, an MSc in International Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London University, and an advance language diploma from Beijing Language and Culture University.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Latin America

756. The White Crane of Alagśa: Legends of the Sixth Dalai Lama in Mongolia

Author:
Sangseraima Ujeed and Gray Tuttle
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
The Sixth Dalai Lama Tsangyang Gyatso (1683-1706/46) was recognized in secrecy, lived in controversy, and passed out of history in mystery. The popular tradition holds that he died whilst travelling to Beijing. Yet in some parts of Mongolia, it is believed that the exiled Sixth Dalai Lama escaped his captors and lived out his life in the dessert Gobi region of Alagśa, Inner Mongolia. To this day in Alagśa, the figure of the Sixth Dalai Lama still serves as a central pillar of the Alagśan identity, religion, and cultural pride among the local Mongolian population. Based on new materials in the form of oral histories, local legends, folk songs, poems, and textual sources which I collected about the Sixth Dalai Lama and the reincarnation of the Desi Sanggye Gyatso in Alagśa during a research trip in 2019, this paper will explore the formation of religio-cultural identity and the invention of tradition in the Alagśa during the early eighteenth century. This is not a paper that tries to solve the mystery of Tsangyang Gyatso’s death, but rather, one that explores the role Tsangyang Gyatso played for the Alagśa Mongols in creating narratives of identity and their realm Alagśa as an authentic Buddhist central place. This is a story of how Tsangyang Gyatso, his identities, and his interpersonal relationships were reborn in Alagśa and the role he played in consolidating Alagśa’s place within the wider geopolitical spheres of the cosmopolitan Buddhist world that spanned the Himalayas, Inner Asia, and the Qing.
Topic:
Religion, History, Geopolitics, Identity, Tradition, Dalai Lama, and Reincarnation
Political Geography:
China, Mongolia, and Asia

757. Japan’s Strategic Cooperation with NATO: Connectivity between Ukraine and Taiwan Crises

Author:
Tomonori Yoshizaki and Ayumi Teraoka
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
China’s global outreach and the War in Ukraine have pushed U.S. allies in Asia and Europe closer in recent years. Professor Tomonori Yoshizaki of Tokyo University of Foreign Studies (TUFS), former Vice President of the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) of the Japanese Ministry of Defense, will help us understand the motivations behind the developing ties between Japan and NATO. He will explore the prospects of their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and beyond and conclude by offering implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

758. Freedom Undone: The Assault on Liberal Values and Institutions in Hong Kong

Author:
Michael Davis and Junyan Jiang
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
A lot has been written about the 2019 protests in Hong Kong and the aggressive police crackdown offered in response. Much less has been written about the more severe assault on liberal values and institutions that followed. In his new book Professor Davis takes a forensic look at both the growing Beijing intervention in Hong Kong affairs from the handover forward and its culmination in the more severe crackdown that followed the 2019 protest, the 2020 passage of the National Security Law, and the 2021 Beijing imposition of a patriots-only electoral system. This talk will highlight the comprehensive impact of these developments on Hong Kong’s rule of law, its criminal justice system, and the many freedoms for which the vibrant city was long known—often previously ranking among the highest in the world. The diminution of basic freedoms has touched nearly all sectors of society, including education, the media, public broadcasting, civil society organizations, legal services, and so on. The city long known for a vibrant public debate, its vigorous media landscape, and some of the largest non-violent protests in the world has gone silent. The sheer comprehensiveness of this imposition raises questions not only for Hong Kong but for liberal democratic values globally, as autocratic regimes such as the PRC seek to advance their illiberal agenda.
Topic:
Protests, Institutions, Liberalism, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Hong Kong

759. Outsourcing Repression: Everyday State Power in Contemporary China

Author:
Lynette Ong and Junyan Jiang
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
How do states coerce citizens into compliance while simultaneously minimizing backlash? In Outsourcing Repression, Lynette Ong examines how the Chinese state engages nonstate actors, from violent street gangsters to nonviolent grassroots brokers, to coerce and mobilize the masses to pursue its ambitious urbanization project. She draws on ethnographic research conducted annually from 2011 to 2019--the years from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping, a unique and original event dataset, and a collection of government regulations in a study of everyday land grabs and housing demolition in China. Theorizing a counterintuitive form of repression that reduces resistance and backlash, Ong invites the reader to reimagine the new ground state power credibly occupies. Everyday state power is quotidian power acquired through society by penetrating nonstate territories and mobilizing the masses within. After the book’s publication, Lynette has extended the arguments to explain the success, failure, and implications of China’s Zero-Covid Policy in the Journal of Democracy, Foreign Affairs and the Economist etc. Outsourcing Repression has won the American Sociology Association’s Distinguished Contribution to Scholarship in Political Sociology, and the Human Rights Best Book Awards from the American Political Science Association, the American Sociological Association, and the International Studies Association.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Governance, State, Coercion, Zero-COVID, and State Power
Political Geography:
China and Asia

760. UK-EU Relations Tracker Q3

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Released quarterly, the UK in a Changing Europe UK-EU Relations Tracker assesses relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. This edition of the tracker covers developments from July to September 2023. On 1 October, the UK government introduced the green-lane/red-lane system to ease the flow of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland as part of the Windsor Framework. In the context of thawing relations post Windsor Framework, the UK and EU have reiterated their commitment to making the most of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The political agreement on the UK’s association to the Horizon and Copernicus programmes was an important milestone. In other areas, the tracker notes that discussions are ongoing. On the future of the relationship, the tracker highlights a growing mismatch between debates on the two sides. Within the UK, the Labour Party have set out plans for building on the TCA in pursuit of a closer trading relationship. The EU, on the other hand, shows little appetite for revisiting the terms of UK-EU trade. Bilaterally, the UK has now signed general statements or declarations with most EU member states. The focus is therefore shifting from formalising relations to maintaining and implementing them. This requires continued engagement, which the tracker indicates can be difficult to sustain at the highest political level.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

761. Net-Zero and Nonproliferation: Assessing Nuclear Power and Its Alternatives

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Six years ago, NPEC ran a mock execution of a law Congress passed in 1978 but that the Executive refused to implement —Title V of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of 1978. Title V called on the State and Energy Departments to conduct country-specific analyses of how developing states might best meet their energy needs without nuclear power. It also called for the creation of an energy Peace Corps and an assessment of what our government was spending on energy development aid-related projects. When NPEC started its efforts, the staff on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee asked to see what NPEC produced to use it to pressure the Executive finally to implement the law. NPEC commissioned a number of studies on how Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and Taiwan might best meet their energy requirements without nuclear power. The center also contracted studies on the history and intent of Title V and on what government programs were already in play that aligned with Title V‘s stated objectives. As soon as NPEC’s project was completed, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff prepared a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asking the Secretary finally to implement Title V and file the reports required by law. Then, something unexpected occurred. The committee’s legal counsel discovered that the Secretary was under no obligation to comply: Congress had eliminated Title V’s reporting requirements along with several hundred other Congressionally mandated reports back in 1995. Flummoxed, I quietly set the book manuscript aside. Why, then, release it today? Because it is again timely. In October, the Biden Administration announced it is still considering extending civilian nuclear cooperation with Riyadh that would allow the Kingdom to enrich uranium — a process that can bring states within weeks of acquiring the bomb. Administration officials no longer question if Saudi Arabia really needs nuclear energy to meet its energy requirements. Shouldn’t they? Meanwhile, Taiwan’s presidential election this coming Saturday will, among other things, decide if Taiwan will build more nuclear reactors or not. Again, is new nuclear Taiwan’s best energy bet? As for China, the Pentagon has become increasingly concerned that the two “peaceful” fast breeder reactors and plutonium reprocessing plants Beijing is building will be used to make hundreds of bombs worth of weapons plutonium. One of the two fast breeder reactors is already operating. The question these dangerous nuclear activities raise is just how necessary they are to meet China’s energy requirements. Then, there’s Iran, which is intent on building reactors of Iranian design. It plans on expanding its nuclear power program from roughly one gigawatt electrical capacity to 11. Given Iran’s renewables potential and oil and gas reserves, how much sense does this make? Finally, in its efforts to achieve net zero, the Biden Administration has joined 20 other nations in pledging to triple global nuclear generation by 2050. Again, how practical is this? This volume’s aim is to help provide answers. Of course, in light of how long our government has ignored Title V, demanding it be implemented now would be odd. Creating a clean energy Peace Corps, comparing the costs of different types of energy, and trying to determine what investments would reduce emissions quickest and cheapest, however, all should be discussed. It’s my hope that the release of Net-Zero and Nonproliferation: Assessing Nuclear Power and Its Alternatives today might prompt such discussion.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, Legislation, Energy, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Taiwan, Asia, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

762. The Devastating Impact of Lebanon’s Environmental Failures

Author:
Peter S. Germanos and Samara Azzi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For decades, Lebanon has suffered under a systematic and intentional mismanagement of country resources and capital, with devastating repercussions. Poverty rates in Lebanon have skyrocketed, and the healthcare and education systems have crumbled, leaving millions vulnerable. Less discussed but no less dangerous is the environmental degradation that the country’s elite have allowed to occur. Lebanon’s deteriorating environment adds another layer of tragedy to the widespread economic crisis; sewage contaminates drinking water, generators spew toxic fumes, excessive groundwater usage renders it saline, and irrigation with sewage water contaminates agricultural produce. The price for Lebanese is becoming increasingly well documented. Cancer cases have surged, and the Lebanese people can expect to continue to suffer in the future as well. This situation was not, however, a foregone conclusion, or due solely to global climate change outside of Lebanese control. Rather, Lebanon’s significant environmental degradation is due in large part to systemic corruption and a total lack of effective regulation. Understanding the scope of this issue is vital to realizing what the people of Lebanon are facing, along with developing a plan to address some of these interconnected environmental and governance challenges.
Topic:
Corruption, Environment, International Cooperation, Pollution, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

763. Jordan’s Escalating Border Threats Amid Regional Upheaval

Author:
Abdullah Hayek and Ahmad Sharawi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 8, the Royal Jordanian Air Force conducted strikes against suspected drug dealers and warehouses in Syria, their fourth such operation in recent months. The strikes occurred amid military reports of increased smuggling attempts—primarily involving drugs, but also weapons—across the kingdom’s northern border. Between January and August 2023 alone, a total of 194 smuggling and infiltration attempts were recorded, 88 of them involving drones. Some cross-border incidents have resulted in clashes with Jordanian security personnel, including three recent episodes: a December 12 clash in which one soldier was killed; a December 18 battle that lasted more than ten hours and marked the first seizure of antitank weaponry on the border; and a January 6 clash in which five smugglers were killed and fifteen arrested. Jordanian military officials attribute each of these attempts to pro-Iran proxy groups in Syria. Moreover, the increasingly advanced arms that smugglers are using—including rocket-propelled grenades, mines, and drones—have led Jordanian officials to conclude that these criminal endeavors pose a wider threat to national security. Greater U.S. assistance would reinforce the kingdom’s efforts to address this threat at a time of wider regional crisis.
Topic:
National Security, Border Control, Syrian War, Borders, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

764. The Red-Hot Blue Line

Author:
Assaf Orion
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The first weekend of 2024 saw one of the fiercest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel since the 2006 war. On January 6, the group launched antitank guided missiles, attack drones, and no less than sixty-two rockets against Israel’s northern air control unit in Mount Meron, causing some damage. Hezbollah described the salvo as an “initial response” to the targeted killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut days earlier. In response, the Israel Defense Forces struck Hezbollah military compounds, a surface-to-air missile unit, and other targets at seven sites in south Lebanon. On January 8, an IDF strike killed Wissam al-Tawil, a senior commander in the group’s Radwan special forces. The next day, Hezbollah drones attacked the IDF’s northern command headquarters, while Israel killed the head of the group’s southern aerial unit and three of his team. In all, Hezbollah has claimed ten new “martyrs” since Saturday. Amid the fighting, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has restated Israel’s “resolve to return the northern communities home, diplomatically if possible; otherwise, by other means.” Similarly, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, “We prefer the path of an agreed-upon diplomatic settlement, but we are getting close to the point where the hourglass will turn over.” Senior U.S. and European officials are now shuttling between Beirut and Jerusalem in a bid to stop the escalation. What exactly will it take to prevent a war in Lebanon and possibly beyond?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Diplomacy, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

765. Domestic Disagreements Limit Netanyahu’s Options with Washington

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the Hamas-Israel war enters a new phase, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is finding it increasingly difficult to balance relationships inside his government and with the White House. On the military front, Israel has taken most of northern Gaza, though an estimated 5,000-6,000 Hamas fighters remain active in various tunnel networks. Major combat operations have largely shifted to central and southern Gaza, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have released most of the 360,000 reservists mobilized at the beginning of the war and withdrawn some forces for retraining. Yet the situation is murkier on the diplomatic and political fronts. Earlier today, Netanyahu and President Biden spoke with each other for the first time in almost four weeks, and the prime minister is fundamentally at odds with Benny Gantz’s centrist National Unity party. When Gantz joined the government shortly after the October 7 attacks, he helped dilute the influence of the far-right parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir while focusing the cabinet on the mutual goal of driving Hamas from power in Gaza. Yet their policy differences have become more salient since then, and Netanyahu seems convinced that Gantz—who is riding high in the polls—will soon leave the government to capitalize on the prime minister’s wartime unpopularity in potential early elections. This has made Netanyahu more dependent on his far-right ministers, much to the consternation of the White House.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

766. NATO's New Ambitions for Space

Author:
Béatrice Hainaut
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Ahead of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a devastating cyber attack targets Ukrainian army communications, exposing Western dependence and vulnerability to space technologies, and calling NATO's defensive posture into question. The longevity of the organization, which celebrates its 75th anniversary in 2024, is partly due to its ability to adapt to the international context. The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly strengthened its legitimacy and attractiveness. The massive use of space applications in Ukraine raises the question of the role of the Atlantic Alliance in providing space data and services to its member states: it does not have its own space capabilities, but its deterrence posture includes space. By equipping itself with a solid documentary corpus, space-focused centers, and access to national capabilities, the Alliance seeks to implement its vision of space as a theater of operations. This theater of operations aims at the integration and interoperability of the space assets of the various member states. For now, these are primarily American capabilities. NATO's space ambition then poses to the states the question of mobilizing financial and human resources. Moreover, deeper cooperation between NATO and the EU could presumably allow for the pooling of efforts.
Topic:
NATO, Science and Technology, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and Space

767. European Solar PV Manufacturing: Terminal Decline or Hope for a Rebirth?

Author:
Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are booming in Europe (and in other parts of the world), the local industry is closing down. Over the past two years, the European installed solar PV capacity has been multiplied by two. On the other hand, the remaining European manufacturers of solar PV panels are dying. Installed solar PV capacities are experiencing an unprecedented increase in Europe: in two years, they have been multiplied by two with 60 gigawatts (GW) added in 2023. However, local solar PV manufacturers are not benefiting from it as the Chinese competition is knocking them down. Structurally much more competitive, prices of Chinese solar panels have further decreased by 42% in 2023 – making it difficult even for some Chinese companies to survive and forcing many of the remaining European manufacturers out of the market. This situation fragilizes Europe’s strategic autonomy and decarbonization. Covid-19-like disruption or an aggression against Taiwan would leave the continent without any supply. American manufacturers are also flexing their muscles with the aggressive Inflation Reduction Act. Europe’s answer, the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), a tougher approach to China’s imports and national support measures, could create a new generation of solar PV manufacturers in Europe.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, Decarbonization, Strategic Autonomy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

768. German Ports and China: How to Reconcile Openness, Resilience and Security?

Author:
Marie Krpata
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Germany is dependent on its ports for the smooth running of its open economic model and has benefited from globalization in recent decades when the internationalization of its value chains strengthened its competitiveness. Yet, with today’s hardening geopolitics, the vulnerabilities of Europe’s leading economic power are becoming apparent. Germany’s ports are an indispensable interface between its production base and its export markets, as well as for its sources of supply. Crucial to its competitiveness, Germany’s ports are becoming increasingly indispensable for energy supplies given the country’s decoupling from Russian hydrocarbons, and they are essential for the deployment of military equipment to Europe’s eastern flank. This is why particular vigilance is required in ports such as Hamburg, where the Chinese shipping company COSCO has acquired a stake in the company operating the Tollerort terminal. This transaction would scarcely have worried anyone in the past. But now it is the subject of bitter discussions, with the Zeitenwende (“change of era”) announced by Olaf Scholz in reaction to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Increased caution seemed to gain a foothold in order not to repeat past mistakes –until the German Chancellor decided in favor of the acquisition. Given closer ties between China and Russia, China’s assertive stance on the international stage, and increased pressure on Germany from its American ally to clarify its position with regard to its main trading partner, Germany is seeing its room for maneuver shrink. Today, we need a more European approach that goes beyond short-term, profit-driven concerns. But to achieve this, we need to put in place a range of resources to be deployed in a resolutely cooperative approach.
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Sports, Trade, Industry, and Resilience
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Germany

769. Xi Jinping’s Visit to France: Stumbling Blocks Pile Up on the Path of Bilateral Cooperation

Author:
Marc Julienne
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
On May 6 and 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to France, his first to Europe since 2019 and the Covid-19 pandemic. Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping will celebrate Franco-Chinese friendship and the sixtieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between their two countries. It comes at a time when the bilateral relationship is officially perceived as positive on both sides, especially after the French President’s visit to China in April 2023. However, beneath the diplomatic varnish, obstacles are piling up, and the space for cooperation between the two countries is receding. Of the four major areas of cooperation on the visit’s agenda – Ukraine, economic relations, human and cultural exchanges, and global challenges – the first three are already facing significant limitations. Beyond the strictly bilateral relationship, the two heads of state have radically different visions of and for Europe. Finally, there is a number of issues that remain absent from the discussions, which are not likely to ease tensions: the Taiwan Strait, nuclear arms control and Chinese interference in Europe. They will need to be addressed sooner or later.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Emmanuel Macron, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and France

770. Power and Financial Interdependence

Author:
Brad Setser
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The link between financial self-reliance and geopolitical power has long been debated. The unbalanced Sino-American trade relationship has created asymmetric financial ties which generate potential sources of leverage for both parties and will not quickly disappear. Absent a clarifying major crisis, it will be difficult to definitively determine which party has greater leverage. Many in the United States (US) are concerned about indebtedness to its primary strategic rival, and the risks posed by a sudden Chinese withdrawal from US financial markets. US policymakers actively sought to encourage China’s top leadership not to withdraw financing from the market for US Agency securities in the run-up to the global financial crisis. Yet China also sees risks in this unbalanced financial relationship. Chinese policymakers have expressed concern about the domestic political consequences of losses on either their Treasury or Agency holdings and actively have sought to diversify China’s reserves – including by substituting the risk of lending to developing economies for the visibility associated with large holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. China increasingly worries that its dollar holdings and the dollar’s global role increase its vulnerability to potential financial sanctions. Both parties thus worry about the possibility that financial interdependence can be weaponized yet find it hard to extricate themselves from the inevitability of financial interdependence absent a clean break from an entrenched pattern of trade imbalances.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Finance, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

771. The Prospects of Indonesia’s Nickel Boom Amidst a Systemic Challenge from Coal

Author:
Thibault Michel
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Indonesia is a country that is booming economically and demographically. This not only matters for regional political and energy security, but also increasingly, for the world’s energy transitions, due to Indonesia’s large metal reserves, as well as its equally important coal consumption in industry and for power generation. Over the last 20 years, Indonesia’s economy has been characterized by very dynamic growth, massive increases in its electricity demand, and coal consumption and exports. Hence, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are on a steady growth trajectory, although the country has committed to lowering them by 32% (unconditional) or 41% (conditional) by 2030. With its Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership application, occurring in the context of global energy transition requirements and geopolitical confrontations, Indonesia is today at a crossroads. Indonesia has 42% of the world’s nickel reserves, as well as substantial reserves of copper, gold, tin, and, notably, coal. This wealth in natural resources has given the mining industry crucial importance in Indonesia’s economic growth and has recently taken an even more prominent place: Indonesia has managed to become the world’s largest nickel producer within just a few years, as its share in global nickel extraction grew from 5% in 2015 to 50% in 2023. The country is also the world’s third copper ore exporter. Coal and energy transition minerals have progressively replaced oil and gas in Indonesian exports. Between 2011 and 2023, oil and gas exports fell by nearly two-thirds and their share in the national exports decreased from 20% to 6%. In 2023, export revenues from copper were larger than those of oil and equal to gas earnings. Yet, having major mineral deposits and mining activities is no longer considered sufficient by the Indonesian government. So far, the mineral industry’s growth has relied hugely on Chinese investments and on low-added-value activities, especially in pyrometallurgy processing. Diversification of trade partners and expansion into new, entire value chains is, therefore, a key objective for the Indonesian government. Indonesia is seeking to boost trade with the United States (US), the European Union (EU) and even the Eurasian Economic Union. However, negotiations over respective agreements are currently encountering hurdles due to American legislation (the Inflation Reduction Act and Foreign Entities of Concern status), which could seriously threaten Indonesian exports of battery mineral components to the US market while they also face hurdles to entering the EU due to environmental regulations. The second part of Indonesia’s strategy focuses on the development of new industrial segments of value chains: refining facilities, hydrometallurgical processing plants, battery factories, etc. To develop these activities, the Indonesian government is using two main tools: the divestment of foreign companies in local firms and export bans on crude ore exports. Such bans have been introduced for nickel in 2020 and for bauxite in 2023, while they are expected for copper in 2024 and perhaps even later for tin. Indonesia is today also confronted with the negative repercussions of mining activities on its soil, including protests over the lack of safety in its mines and smelters, citizens’ expropriations, the presence of indigenous tribes on mining sites, and, above all, damage to the environment. Such damage also has its roots in the substantial amounts of energy used to feed smelters, which mostly rely on the use of coal. Decarbonizing Indonesia’s economy has thus become a central challenge for the country, where the consequences of climate change are already palpable on the archipelago’s soil, with extreme weather events and the sinking of the capital city – Jakarta – as sea levels rise. To carry out the tremendous transformation towards net-zero emissions while ensuring steady and sustainable development, the country has signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership and prepared decarbonization scenarios within this framework. Key priorities in the coming years include renewable energy deployment, grid development and an early phase-out of coal. Deploying renewable energy sources as well as large and resilient grids is made more difficult by the country’s geography. The archipelago includes 17,000 islands, some of them being undeveloped, hard to access and far away from each other. Furthermore, the levelized costs of solar and wind power are currently high in Indonesia compared with other developing countries, while public subsidies for coal do not favor low carbon generation sources. If the two first points are thus very challenging, the last one appears to be the hardest, considering the Indonesian economy’s tremendous dependency on coal. Concerns are therefore rising about Indonesia’s ability and even willingness to pursue a genuine, albeit differentiated decarbonization pathway. There are also many questions regarding Indonesia’s mineral trade strategy. New bans on crude ore exports are expected to come into force, while new mining and mineral processing operations are under development across the archipelago, as quantities of nickel produced in the country are at historic highs. This extraordinary increase in nickel production, concomitant with a global economic slowdown, has resulted in a sharp fall in nickel prices, with nickel losing half of its value between January 2023 and February 2024. As a result, many producers are finding themselves in danger, especially in Australia or New Caledonia. While there could be a deliberate strategy to flood the markets and neutralize competition, notably by Chinese companies that control 75% of the global nickel supply (mainly from Indonesia but also from the Philippines), the country faces serious dilemmas. Indonesia’s oil and gas production is diminishing, and it increasingly relies on nickel exports and higher nickel prices for its economic stability, with coal also remaining very important. Indonesia’s resource nationalism and industrial strategy, which include attracting foreign investments, notably via its OECD membership pledge, require a credible pathway to reduce the carbon footprint of its electricity generation. Among the pathways towards both decarbonization and the development of industrial battery value chains, three steps could be considered: Deploying renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) power and offshore wind farms, as well as progressively transferring subsidies from coal to renewable energy sources. Developing a clean battery industry based on high environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria and on the wealth of Indonesia’s subsoil, which includes most of the metals used in battery manufacturing. Protecting climate and biodiversity by favoring innovative solutions for mining waste management and upholding high ESG standards.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Electricity, Coal, Lithium, Minerals, Energy Transition, and Nickel
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

772. "A Capital City Will Always Be a Capital City”: Konya’s Rise Under the AKP’s Rule

Author:
Elisa Domingues dos Santos, Jules Liaud, and Dorothee Schmid
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While the May 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections looked as a difficult test for the flagging Islamo-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), they eventually held on to power, demonstrating their remarkable foothold in the Turkish context. The party notably recorded one of its highest scores in Konya, confirming the massive and uninterrupted support of this two-million inhabitants central Anatolian city for Turkish political Islam. The phenomenon can be explained by the benefits that Konya has derived from its relationship with the Islamic movement for several decades. Long marginalized in a provincial space, little connected to Western Turkey’s centers of power, Konya, renowned for its history and religious heritage, became an “Anatolian tiger” under the AKP rule. The province’s economic development started from an agricultural base (Turkey’s cereal granary) enabling the emergence of a local agro-industry. It was driven by dynamic small and medium-sized enterprises, combining conservative values with entrepreneurial efficiency. Forging close ties with the AKP, Konya has benefited from territorial development policies that facilitated its rapid opening to the world. Thanks to its Anatolian identity, central geography, diversity of human flows and capacity to project its economic dynamism into increasingly distant markets (like Africa), Konya has become a showcase for the paradoxical modernity of the new Turkey.
Topic:
Elections, Entrepreneurship, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Konya

773. Understanding the Role of Women in Nigeria’s Non-State Armed Groups and Security Architecture

Author:
Michael Nwankpa
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian government after successive military regimes, it has continued to face enormous challenges to its legitimacy and monopoly of the use of force. Protest groups, social movements, and non-state armed groups have emerged over the years to demand good governance in some cases and, in other extreme cases, secession, self-determination, and subversion of Nigeria’s secular political system. Many groups have been willing to take up arms against the state to pursue their objectives. Men are usually the significant actors in these armed groups, while most women are considered victims. However, since 2014, when Boko Haram started deploying female suicide bombers and mobilizing more and more girls and women in its terrorist strategies, women’s role in Nigeria’s armed conflicts and their capacity to use violence have gained visibility. Despite this, ascertaining the role of women (mainly whether they occupy positions of power and can perpetrate violence) in non-state armed groups’ activities against the Nigerian state remains difficult, judging by the overwhelmingly male-dominated recipients of the government’s amnesty and deradicalization programs. Relying on interviews with key respondents, this paper fills this gap by interrogating the role of women as victims or perpetrators in Boko Haram and Niger Delta insurgencies, Nigeria’s two foremost insurgencies since the return to democracy in 1999, as well as engaging with the prospect of an effective legislative and policy response that is negotiated by increasing the number of women in security and political leadership positions.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Women, Disarmament, Boko Haram, Armed Conflict, Amnesty, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Niger Delta

774. Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Elections: Campaigning for Continuity

Author:
Juliette Loesch
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Indonesia is gearing up for its next general election on February 14, with a potential runoff scheduled in late June. This major electoral process will determine the nation’s next president and vice-president since incumbent President Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, will step down after ten years in office in compliance with the constitutional limit of two terms. Voters will also decide on nearly 20,000 representatives at the national, provincial, and district levels. Another provincial election is set for November this year, although discussions are currently unfolding in the Parliament to advance it to September. This proposed timeline has triggered concerns about possible interference from the current administration, given that the new one will only be appointed in October. Indonesia’s general election will determine the nation’s next president and vice-president. A turnout of 204 million voters, over a total population of 277 million, is expected to show up at the polls. The election features a three-way race between prominent political figures Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan. All three candidates have affiliations with the current administration of President Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, with Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto even competing for his legacy. As of early February, Prabowo, Jokowi’s defense minister, and his vice-presidential pick Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s eldest son, are leading the polls. Experts nonetheless foresee a probable runoff, which is set in late June 2024. Concerns have surfaced regarding Jokowi’s interventions in the campaign, which seem to support the Prabowo Gibran ticket. While such interference is not inherently unlawful, certain actions undertaken by the administration to support Prabowo and Gibran raise more serious concerns about election
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Presidential Elections, and Continuity
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Asia-Pacific

775. South Korea’s Emergence as a Defense Industrial Powerhouse

Author:
Wooyeal Paik
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In recent years, South Korea’s ascent in the global arms market has been remarkable. This surge, particularly amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, has captured the attention of security watchers worldwide. This paper delves into the intricacies of the South Korean defense industry’s rapid emergence, wherein arms sales skyrocketed to 17.3 billion USD in 2022, and provides an in-depth analysis of its portfolio, capacity, and the rationales guiding its development over the last five decades. It explores how South Korea has capitalized on critical opportunities, including overcoming steep barriers to entry to major contracts with Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland. It sheds light on South Korea’s competitive technologies, mass production capacity, and cost-effectiveness, and addresses the crucial role played by the government’s diplomatic support and coordination with key allies and partners. Against that backdrop, it concludes with some implications for the global defense industry and security architecture.
Topic:
Security, Defense Industry, Armament, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Poland

776. Germany’s Strategy on Climate Foreign Policy: Balancing Sustainable Development and Energy Security

Author:
Jeanette Süß
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
With the war in Ukraine, Germany’s “traffic light” coalition government has had to adapt its climate policy to the upheavals caused by this war, which has turned its economic, energy, and military model upside down. Against a backdrop of high energy costs and increasing calls for reshoring in Europe, German industry is looking at how to maintain its competitiveness while decarbonizing its industry. To combat climate change and find new forms of energy cooperation that are more sustainable for the planet, the federal government has set up a Strategy on Climate Foreign Policy bringing together its collaborative actions with partner countries. Climate, energy, and development partnerships play a vital role in this context, and emerging countries are key partners for climate initiatives. They have a high demand for energy and exploit resources, though without always respecting environmental, social, and governance standards. Their renewable energy (RE) production potential is significant, and there are major opportunities for CO2 reduction thanks to modernization technologies that Germany is seeking to transfer to its partners. To this end, Germany is using a multitude of diplomatic tools and is leveraging a unique network of international agencies, chambers of commerce and climate finance players.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, Renewable Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

777. Russia’s Ideological Construction in the Context of the War in Ukraine

Author:
Marlène Laruelle
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russian government has been proactive in the ideological realm to ensure the sustainability of the war for Russian society. Counter to the claims of many Western observers, this paper argues that the Russian regime does have an ideology, which translates into a relatively coherent political project for Russia and a desire to build a new world order. This ideology is based on a set of beliefs that has evolved over the years while remaining true to its core principles. However, it draws on an eclectic doctrinal stock and multiple (sometimes contradictory) repertoires and sees content as situational and therefore malleable. With the war, proponents of the officialization of a state ideology—all from the hawkish part of the establishment—have been gaining weight: the Presidential Administration now mainly reproduces language and tropes that have long been present in the security and military realm and have become the official doxa. Yet while new indoctrination methods and textbooks are introduced to the school system, the Kremlin has not so far recreated a Soviet-style ideological monolith: even in the context of war, it appears hesitant to engage in excessive “true teaching”, preferring a functional, technocratic understanding of ideology. After briefly defining what ideology means for the Putin regime, this paper explores how the main set of beliefs, strategic narratives, and doctrines have stabilized and gained increased internal coherence, as well as how new textbooks and military-patriotic indoctrination mechanisms are developed, before delving into the social reception of this official ideology.
Topic:
Ideology, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

778. The Future of Nuclear Proliferation after the War in Ukraine

Author:
Nicholas L. Miller
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In the context of deep changes to the international security environment, especially the war in Ukraine, the risks of nuclear proliferation seem quite high, especially in the Middle East and East Asia. Four categories of factors have been identified that might trigger an escalation. Firstly, changes in the international security environment, including heightened competition among major powers, could increase pressure for proliferation in regions like Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Secondly, the declining ability of the United States to enforce non-proliferation regimes may lead allies to seek nuclear capabilities due to concerns over U.S. reliability. Thirdly, failures by nuclear powers to uphold disarmament commitments and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons could undermine non-proliferation norms. Lastly, the war in Ukraine highlights the potential use of nuclear threats in conflicts, reinforcing the perception of nuclear weapons as crucial for national security. While there are reasons to anticipate growing proliferation risks, historical precedent suggests that these risks can be managed. Concerns over U.S. reliability and disarmament failures have been addressed through coercion and reassurance in the past. Additionally, the impact of conventional wars supported by nuclear deterrence has been contained. While some risk factors are novel, such as the decline of the U.S. nuclear industry and the emergence of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, their decisive impact remains uncertain. The implications for the Middle East and East Asia vary. Allies like Japan and South Korea may be convinced to remain non-nuclear due to U.S. security assurances, while adversaries like Iran could be incentivized to pursue nuclear capabilities amid declining effectiveness of U.S. sanctions. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it may pressure Saudi Arabia to follow suit, potentially leading to regional proliferation dynamics. Thus, great powers and the international community need to step in to manage proliferation triggers by maintaining a focus on nonproliferation in their statecraft.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

779. India-Russia Relations in Troubled Times: Steady but Stagnating

Author:
Aleksei Zakharov
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the trajectory of India-Russia relations post-February 2022. The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation. Moscow and New Delhi have demonstrated divergent approaches to the advancement of their strategic partnership. While Russia has rushed into reinventing the old friendship with India, the latter has acted with greater discretion. New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West. India’s record imports of Russian crude and other commodities, at times in defiance of Western sanctions, have allowed for a considerable boost in bilateral trade. While this “oil connection” may benefit both the Indian and Russian economies, it should not be misperceived as a leap forward in partnership. The structural challenges appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties. Furthermore, their geopolitical understanding is waning, and their defense cooperation is currently in a state of limbo. As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India seems to be prioritizing maintaining the status quo in its relationship with Russia over pursuing new initiatives. This may help to prevent the two sides from drifting apart too far in the near term but is unlikely to lead to any substantive progress in their relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, and India

780. When Life Gives You Lemons: How EU Citrus Standards Can Limit Trade

Author:
Trinity Johnson
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
In the early 2000s, the European Union (EU) created multiple standards on agricultural imports. This paper focuses on the effect of stricter maximum residue limits (MRLs) for pesticides on citrus fruit exports to the EU after the limits went into effect in 2005. Using a regression model on overall citrus fruit exports and an interaction term for country-level income, the data shows that the EU’s stricter MRLs hurt exports from high-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries. Exports from low-income countries declined the most after 2005, while only upper-middle-income countries saw an increase in exports. For product-specific models, low-income countries saw a reduction in exports to the EU for all citrus fruits, while results varied by fruit for other income classifications. The results of these models demonstrate that the EU’s tightened pesticide regulation hurt low-income countries the most. While the regulation is meant to maintain a standard of food quality in the EU, its impact on low-income countries raises important questions about the unintended effects of import regulations. The EU could maintain its quality of food while alleviating the burden on low-income countries by relaxing its MRL standards or by providing more assistance to developing nations to meet its standards.
Topic:
Agriculture, European Union, Regulation, and Imports
Political Geography:
Europe

781. The Advisory Function of the International Court of Justice: Are States Resorting to Advisory Proceedings as a “Soft” Litigation Strategy?

Author:
Myrto Stavridi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
In the last decades, there has been an increase in advisory opinions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that relate to vital political interests directly affecting the sovereignty of states. Even though advisory opinions are not binding and do not require the consent of the states involved, advisory proceedings have been increasingly and strategically used by states and international actors as contentious proceedings in disguise. Exploring the history of the advisory function of the ICJ and its predecessor, this article argues that advisory proceedings constitute a “soft” litigation strategy and a particularly useful tool for small states or non-state entities, as it has the potential to counterbalance the inherent power disparities in the process of international bargaining by adding the authoritative voice of the ICJ to the debate. This paper connects this development to a modern tendency of states to judicialize international affairs.
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, International Affairs, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and Advisory Opinions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

782. Seeking Safer Shells: An Analysis of Interpretations, Justifications, and Rationales Behind Decisions on North Korean Defectors’ Right to Asylum

Author:
Megumi Faith Mallari and Saleh Naas
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Despite their known and indisputable need for protection, North Koreans often have their applications for asylum rejected. This paper outlines the differing interpretations of North Koreans’ right to asylum and investigates the rationales and justifications behind them through the case studies of the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and China (PRC). The paper argues that the rationale of the European countries analyzed is based on their generally restrictive view on asylum, independent from their political positioning on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Contrastingly, the rationales of the United States and the PRC are grounded in interests directly related to the Korean peninsula and Cold War narratives.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Asylum, and Refugee Policy
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, France, Germany, Netherlands, and United States of America

783. Revising Organ Procurement Organization Guidelines to Obtaining Family Consent for Deceased Donation: An Anthropologically Informed Policy Proposal

Author:
Gillian Tisdale
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Organ transplantation has become a widespread medical practice with public policy designed to increase rates of deceased donation. When individuals have not registered as organ donors, next-of-kin are called on to make donation decisions—requiring families to grapple with the often-confusing concept of ‘brain death’ and parse their understanding of what the deceased would have wanted. Current public policy is explicitly designed to promote high donation rates without clear regard to the experiences of donor-families; at best, these policies prime donation conversations to involve unethical practices, while at worst, the disregard of kin’s experiences may also diminish deceased donation rates. Anthropological literature has documented the often aggressive tactics used by transplant organizations that demonstrate a disregard for the emotional experiences of kin. In 2023, Congress passed the Securing the U.S. Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Act, prompting the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reevaluate organ donation policies and solicit requests for proposal for a new federal contractor to take over the network responsible for overseeing all organ sharing. This article leverages the relevant anthropological literature to provide guiding principles and proposed language amending the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Interpretive Guidance that HHS could implement as part of its modernization initiative. These principles aim to improve experiences for kin without lowering donation rates. The article recommends that HHS and its contractors collect metrics to measure the quality of Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) interactions, counterbalancing current benchmarks focused on procurement rates. It also recommends improved protocols to empathically and systematically support kin’s understanding of brain death.
Topic:
Legislation, Public Policy, Procurement, and Organ Transplants
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

784. Migrant Death and Disappearability at Sea: Mediterranean Necropolitics as a European Strategy of Migration Deterrence

Author:
Bertille Motte
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
The Mediterranean Sea has become the deadliest passage in the world over the past decade, as thousands of migrants lose their lives at sea each year. It has become a key actant of European border violence perpetrated against migrants, as European national and supranational migration institutions instrumentalize the Mediterranean’s natural properties through necropolitical strategies of deterrence. The sea must be understood as a wet ontology and a fluid hybrid border. It is shaped by dynamic and complex interactions between human actors and more-than-human elements through which European violence is passed onto non-European migrants’ bodies. It conceals migrants’ deaths and disappearances, as they become ‘inevitable accidents’ caused by natural and untamable elements. The Mediterranean Sea therefore invisibilizes European structural violence occurring at the border zone and acts as an archive and witness to this violence.
Topic:
Migration, Border Control, Refugees, Violence, Deterrence, Asylum, Necropolitics, and Refugee Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

785. Is the Government Ready to Take the Lead? Transition of Migration Management in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Rio Otsuka
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is approaching a critical tipping point as it assumes primary responsibility over migration management from the International Organization for Migration. However, few studies have examined whether the government has acquired the ability to take over this responsibility. Such an examination is crucial given the country’s turmoil since 2018, with increased migration inflows, casting doubt over the government's capabilities. Thus, this study explores the current state of migration management in BiH, both to determine whether the government has developed effective migration management capabilities as well as to highlight current migration challenges faced by BiH. Fieldwork at the Temporary Reception Center Usivak in 2023; interviews with 6 non-governmental organization (NGO) officers and 10 migrants in BiH; and analysis of literature and data provided by scholars, governments, international organizations, and NGOs suggest that authorities in BiH, primarily the Ministry of Security, have generally developed effective management capabilities and are ready to assume managing responsibility. Nevertheless, obstacles with providing living conditions in reception centers that meet international standards and with the implementation of coordinated responses among different institutions remain. As the transition proceeds, the Bosnian government should recognize these challenges and implement policies to address them through continued coordination with international organizations and NGOs.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Management, Migration Policy, and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Political Geography:
Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina

786. Guam in Washington, 1972-Present: The Overlooked Strategic Implications of Congressional Polarization

Author:
Mirabai Venkatesh
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Contrary to the long-held logic that giving Guam a stronger, more autonomous voice will undermine U.S. strategic interests, failing to provide Guam with a stable pathway of interest advancement beyond Congress hinders its development and with it the federal government’s ability to achieve soft-power advantages and basic military readiness in the Indo-Pacific theater. Since the United States assumed responsibility for administering the territory of Guam in 1898, it has treated the prospect of Guam’s status improvement as detrimental to U.S. strategic interests. This has informed its chosen method of territorial administration, which places U.S. territories under the authority of the Department of the Interior. Each territory is then given only one formal representative in Congress, specifically the U.S. House of Representatives, but without full-voting rights. This paper will explore how Guam has managed to advance its interests in Washington since 1972, highlighting how congressional representation has become Guam’s most successful pathway of interest advancement with the federal government to date. However, the agency and success of Guam’s congressional delegates must be framed within a broader discussion of the fragility of the U.S. approach to territorial administration, which has relegated Guam to a pathway of interest advancement incredibly vulnerable to political sea change. Ultimately, this paper will illustrate how Guam’s main pathway of interest advancement in Washington is quickly narrowing at the expense of U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, History, Soft Power, Autonomy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Guam

787. Friends in Need: Russian Strategic Communications in Africa Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Christopher Babcock
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Africa is becoming an important strategic hub for the Russian state as Putin’s regime faces rising ostracization elsewhere. In this paper, I analyze Russian influence in Africa by examining over 1,700 pieces of online content created or re-posted by 4 Russian embassies in Ghana, Ethiopia, the Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania between January 15 and December 31, 2022. I demonstrate that, despite new developments in Russian strategic communications, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has mostly fed pre-existing narratives rather than drastically shifting the focus or direction of state rhetoric. All four of the embassies used in the analysis promoted narratives that depicted Russia as a revisionist power going up against a “neocolonial” West, portrayed Ukraine as a neo-Nazi puppet of the West, and attempted to contrast this with Russia’s purportedly friendly relations with Africa. The scale and intensity of these narratives exploded in the leadup to and in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine—to the extent that some embassies began to focus almost exclusively on Ukraine in their communications. Meanwhile, many African nations were willing to pragmatically engage with Russia as an alternative (or complementary) ally to the West. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, I show that the war in Ukraine has revealed the fault lines of Russian and African thinking, loyalty, and strategy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Engagement, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Communication
Political Geography:
Russia and Africa

788. A Land of Violence, A Land of Conquest: Memory, Truth, Historical Continuity, and Imperialism in Rwanda

Author:
Paolo Bellone
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
How is the imperialism of a small African country connected with questions about its own identity and troubled past? In this paper, I try to analyze through the lenses of historical continuity how the ghosts of a dramatic past have crafted Rwanda’s foreign policy. My analysis goes deeper into the pre-colonial era, observing patterns of similarities throughout Rwandan history, starting from the kingdoms of Rwanda in the 18th century until Paul Kagame’s presidency (2000–present). Moreover, instead of seeing a historical break between the pre- and post-1994 genocide governments, I have found historical parallels with the Rwandan independent governments, especially between those of Juvénal Habyarimana (1973–1994) and Paul Kagame. Those similarities swing around the necessity of controlling ethnic dissent, determining a common truth, centralizing power, and establishing the cult of the leader. Nonetheless, the dramatic consequences of the genocide and the international legitimation that has brought on Kagame’s party Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) have had, as a result, an imperialistic project based on the necessity of defending “national security.” Rwanda’s delicate balance between managing internal dissent, the homogenization of the society through shared collective memory, and the imperialistic project is at the center of this work.
Topic:
Genocide, Imperialism, History, and Memory
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

789. Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Francesco Siccardi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey has an energy dependence problem. For the past two decades, Ankara’s energy needs have been on the rise, and they are projected to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2035. Yet, the country is not endowed with the proven natural resources to support its energy needs, and so it imports almost all of the energy it consumes. This reliance on energy imports creates economic and security constraints for Ankara. On the economic front, strategic decisions to diversify Turkey’s energy market impact the direction and pace of the country’s economic development. On the security front, dependence on foreign energy exposes Turkey to external shocks and creates vulnerabilities that affect the country’s international posture. To Turkish policymakers, this is hardly breaking news. For many decades, successive governments have been considering ways to diversify the country’s energy portfolio with the objective of ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy supplies. Domestically, this goal has translated into continued investments in locally produced power, such as the development of natural gas fields under the Black Sea and the opening of nuclear and coal-fired power plants across the country. Externally, the aim of diversification has led Ankara to forge a wide range of international partnerships and preserve relations with both Western purchasers of Turkish exports and key energy providers, including Russia and countries in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood. What is more, Ankara pursues its energy diplomacy against the backdrop of a broader geopolitical strategy of bolstering Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic position and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub that will put the country at the center of regional energy trade. This policy has ramifications for Ankara’s relations with its close and more distant neighbors. Turkey is surrounded by energy-rich countries, and one of its primary objectives when reaching out to them is to secure the conditions for a steady inflow of energy resources—typically, natural gas and oil. This objective can lead to the development of durable economic partnerships, such as with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran; but it can also spark conflicts of different degrees of intensity, such as with Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors and Iraq. Beyond its immediate neighborhood, Ankara’s gas diplomacy is consequential for relations with Russia—with which Turkey has been strengthening its energy relations beyond hydrocarbons—and with Europe. On the demand side of Ankara’s natural gas market equation, European countries are thirsty for non-Russian hydrocarbons in the short and medium term and for green energy in the longer term. Turkey has the potential to provide both, as long as it comes up with strong policies that support these energy transitions. To do so, the Turkish government will need to shift its approaches not only to energy but also to geopolitics. Ankara will have to present itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and ramp up its investment in clean energy technologies. Delinking Turkey’s economic development from its dependence on hydrocarbons will benefit Ankara financially while bringing it closer to its European allies. Building a long-lasting energy partnership with Europe remains one of Turkey’s greatest challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt

790. Iraq’s Development Road: Geopolitics, Rentierism, and Border Connectivity

Author:
Harith Hasan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Iraq’s Development Road project aims to create an Iraqi transborder transportation network connecting the Persian Gulf with Türkiye. This network would enhance Iraq’s geopolitical status as a trade corridor and provide financial returns, reducing the state’s reliance on hydrocarbons. However, the project faces obstacles, including challenges of financing and implementation, widespread corruption, the potential for insecurity and instability in Iraq, and the fact that rival transborder projects in the region mean countries may work against its success.
Topic:
Reform, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

791. Tunisia’s Transformation Into a Transit Hub: Illegal Migration and Policy Dilemmas

Author:
Hamza Meddeb and Fakhreddine Louati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Due to structural economic, climate, and social crises in the Sahel, Tunisia has emerged as a key transit point for sub-Saharan African migrants and asylum seekers aiming to reach Europe. This has fueled a migration economy in Tunisia. Caught between Tunisia’s attempts to leverage migration to pressure the European Union (EU) on the one hand and the EU’s securitization of migration on the other, sub-Saharan African migrants find themselves trapped in a complex web of challenges.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Reform, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

792. Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus

Author:
Artyom Shraibman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy on Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, an inexorably deeper dependence on Moscow, and the glaring absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decisionmaking. This paper proposes a different paradigm for approaching the issue. Instead of passively reacting to Minsk’s actions, the West should broaden its planning horizon and create more specific incentives for Belarus to follow a different trajectory in the future. The overriding goal of a more proactive Western strategy should be the eventual emergence of a democratic Belarus that is no longer fully dominated by Moscow in the military and political realms. Such an ambitious goal would have tangible and lasting benefits for the new European security landscape amid the prospect of a long war in Ukraine. Skepticism in Western policy circles about the viability of such a scenario is entirely understandable. Yet it is not entirely clear whether Western policymakers have registered the significant differences between Russia and Belarus at the societal level and divergent strategic interests of the Russian and Belarusian regimes. At the same time, it is essential for Western policymakers to keep their expectations in check and to avoid an overestimation of their capabilities. The Belarusian crisis cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future by Western efforts alone. Moreover, there should be no illusions about the fact that Belarus, much like Ukraine, holds a special place in the worldview of the Russian ruling elite and President Vladimir Putin personally. The Kremlin’s long-standing obsession with keeping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) away from Russia’s borders plays into the same attachment to keeping the Belarusian regime in as tight an embrace as possible. Therefore, until Moscow either changes its foreign policy priorities under a new leadership or simply becomes unable to keep Minsk under its control, it would be naïve to expect that the Russian leadership will simply offer any Belarusian government greater leeway to shift its geopolitical orientation. At the same time, it is conceivable that a qualitative increase in military assistance to Ukraine and a more effective economic pressure campaign against Russia could disrupt Belarus’s trajectory and make Minsk more amenable to the incentives that the West can already offer. But an overnight breakthrough seems highly unlikely. This paper, therefore, focuses on more realistic recommendations with longer-term effects.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

793. Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft

Author:
Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The structure of international politics is changing in ways that are not fully appreciated in Washington. The United States has paid a great deal of attention to the rise of China in the last decade but much less to emerging powers whose rise will also shape the operating environment for American statecraft. No single emerging power will have an impact tantamount to China’s, but they will have a significant impact collectively due to their geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations. America has limited ability to influence the trajectory of these emerging powers, identified in this report as Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye. They have taken stances that contrast or directly clash with U.S. positions on China and on Russia over the past few years. Nearly all have voiced concerns about Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, even as they criticized Moscow’s invasion. Almost none would line up with the United States in a confrontation with China. Instead, they are likely to pursue highly self-interested foreign policies. Washington should expect that they will increasingly challenge some of its policies, sustain relationships with its adversaries, and press their own agendas on the global stage. The emerging powers’ statecrafts are shaped in large part by their drive for economic security. But their geographies, different preferences for world order, domestic politics, and defense relationships also play a role. Concerns about the strength of democracy in other countries, which has played an animating role in U.S. foreign policy for decades, are a lower priority for them, no matter how democratic they are. It will be a mistake for the United States to frame its relations with these emerging powers primarily as part of a competition for influence with China and Russia, however tempting it may be to do so. These powers are not swing states that will tilt decisively toward either side in a global great power competition. Most will resist any efforts to bring them into a U.S.-led camp as in the Cold War. Trying to make them do so would also risk strategic overreach by embroiling the United States too deeply in the emerging powers’ domestic politics or by expending its resources in pursuit of building ties that never materialize. A better approach for the United States would be to focus on negotiating interest-based deals with emerging powers while cordoning off areas of disagreement. These might include tailored market access and investment agreements, agreements on technology manufacturing, energy transition initiatives, efforts to combat deforestation, efforts to build public health infrastructure, and infrastructure investments. It would be wasteful of the United States to offer these countries security guarantees, but in some cases providing security assistance can serve its interests. Washington should accept that most of these countries will maintain close diplomatic, economic, and sometimes security relationships with China and probably Russia. Over the longer term, it will serve U.S. interests to strengthen the sovereignty of emerging powers when possible and cost-effective to do so. This will provide a bulwark against the undue expansion of China’s power and influence and help ensure that, even if they do not side with the United States, they are not drawn closely into the orbit of its major geopolitical competitors. Strengthening emerging powers’ sovereignty will also help boost their development as constructive powers with a stake in sustaining a peaceful world order conducive to global economic growth.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

794. Charting the Radical Right’s Influence on EU Foreign Policy

Author:
Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The political landscape in the European Union (EU) is changing rapidly. For decades, the traditional mainstream parties of the center right and center left have been losing ground, while antiestablishment parties have been gaining support. According to research by the University of Amsterdam, 32 percent of voters opted for antiestablishment parties in 2021, up from 12 percent in the early 1990s.1 Radical-right parties make up about half of this share, and their support has risen faster than that of any other group. Many of the fourteen parties examined in this study have achieved vote shares of 20 percent or more. The radical right is now in government, or supports the government, in Finland, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden. In the Netherlands, it is likely that Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV) will be part of a governing coalition. In other countries, these parties have become the leading opposition groups. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has been carefully preparing to win the 2027 presidential election. Setbacks for the radical right in Poland and Spain in the second half of 2023 have shown that the relentless rise of these parties is not a foregone conclusion. However, current polling for several national elections and the June 2024 European Parliament elections indicates a strong likelihood of their continuing electoral success.2 Chega (Enough), a recently established party that shot to 18 percent of the vote in Portugal’s March 2024 election, ended the country’s exceptionalism as one of the few European nations without a right-wing populist party.3 The June 2024 Belgian federal election may see the Flemish nationalist party Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), which so far has been strong in Flanders but kept out of national politics, break through at the federal level. Polling for Austria’s September 2024 parliamentary election suggests a surge in support for the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ).4 In contrast with populism, which has a thin ideology focused mainly on fomenting the anger of the so-called pure people against corrupt elites and which has risen on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, the radical-right parties of the 2020s have a more distinct ideological profile.5 All have national specificities, such as rural origins in Northern Europe or ethnonationalism in Central Europe. Several parties are rooted in postwar fascism, such as the FPÖ, RN, Brothers of Italy (FdI), the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), and the Sweden Democrats (SD). For some groups, strong connections with society and well-developed party structures compensated for their marginal impact in national politics. Before its landslide victory in Italy’s 2022 parliamentary election, support for FdI hovered at around 5 percent, as it did for the party’s predecessor throughout the period since World War II.6 Other parties, such as Hungary’s Fidesz, gained ground as classic populist or even mainstream parties and benefited from an aura of respectability even as they shifted toward ethnonationalist or nativist positions. Since the 1990s, liberal-democratic parties have started to adopt some of the ideas of the radical right while keeping the parties themselves out of government. In the 2000s, the radical right became normalized, in some countries becoming part of the political mainstream. During this process, as political scientists Cas Mudde and Jan-Werner Müller have argued, liberal-democratic parties have shifted toward the radical right in the hope—mostly in vain—of keeping their traditional electorates. Yet, in practice, this approach has led voters to prefer the real radical right to its imitators. In other words, the tactic of chasing the radical right has not paid off electorally. Voters have moved toward the radical right as a consequence, not as a cause, of liberal-democratic parties’ attempts to contain it.7 Today, the far right is dominated by the radical right, which, unlike the extreme right, accepts the essence of democracy but rejects its liberal elements: minority rights, the rule of law, and the separation of powers.8 The radical-right parties selected for this study all share deep antimigration sentiments, often determined by race or religion; a nationalism that makes these parties Euroskeptic and opposed to what they see as a Brussels-based dictatorship; and skepticism of climate change policies. Many of these parties also espouse deeply conservative family values that go against women’s and LGBTQ rights. Foreign policy is usually not the strong suit of these parties, apart from their keen interest in the external dimension of migration policy. These parties pay close attention to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine but are sharply divided on this issue, with positions ranging from deep mistrust of Russia to close alignment with the Kremlin’s arguments. A future Donald Trump administration could lead to new divisions in the EU, as some member states are likely to align with the United States under any circumstances. This would mean that many of the EU’s current foreign policy positions, such as support for Ukraine, would come to an end. As radical-right parties rise to prominence at the national and the EU level, they are developing views on a range of foreign policy issues, building increasingly influential international networks and think tanks, and learning from each other’s successful tactics in solidifying their control of the state and propagating their values.9 For some radical-right parties that have been established in government, such as Fidesz and, until October 2023, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, the upgrading of foreign policy on their political agendas can be inferred by the fact that all diplomatic postings in the EU are political appointments. Hungary’s foreign policy machinery is under the direct control of the prime minister.10 Diplomatic colleagues of the Hungarian representatives in Brussels know that the country’s negotiating positions are micromanaged in Budapest.11 Other countries, such as Italy and Finland, have chosen to rely on the credibility of career diplomats to navigate the Brussels machinery, preferring compromise over confrontation and isolation. For a long time, European politicians and EU institutions have assumed the radical right could be contained. Now, the challenge of the radical right needs to be addressed more seriously. Just as this phenomenon has eroded democracy and the rule of law in some EU member states, so foreign policy may become affected at a time when collective action is most needed to address international issues. As the radical right challenges the EU’s attempts to navigate a dangerous world, European politics can no longer afford complacency.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Democracy, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

795. Exploring Law Enforcement Hacking as a Tool Against Transnational Cyber Crime

Author:
Gavin Wilde and Emma Landi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In terms of revenue, 2023 will go down as a record-breaking year for ransomware, with over a billion dollars in payments going to hackers.1 The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reports a record $12.5 billion lost to cyber crime more broadly over the course of that year.2 As the quantities of affected users and organizations, payoff amounts, critical services, and pilfered sensitive data continue to rise, Western capitals have in recent years come to treat transnational cyber crime as a major national security concern. Because cyber criminals often operate from third countries where prosecution or extradition are unlikely, policymakers often look to military and intelligence services as the best (or only) entities capable of operationally disrupting cyber crime syndicates. Yet another growing trend challenges this notion: Western law enforcement agencies (LEAs) also have been expanding their own abilities to cross both technical and national boundaries to take on cyber criminals. This trend is creating new opportunities and challenges for both domestic and international cyber policy.
Topic:
Crime, Science and Technology, Law Enforcement, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

796. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:
Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, and South Africa

797. The Buildup to a Crisis: Current Tensions and Future Scenarios for Tunisia

Author:
Ishac Diwan, Hachemi Alaya, and Hamza Meddeb
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Tunisia has been living beyond its means since 2011. External support and credit flowed into the country after the 2010–2011 uprising to support its nascent democracy, but this funding ended up largely financing a consumption boom that is unsustainable. To make matters worse, macroeconomic and political instability have begun to deeply harm the country’s productive capacity. The risk of a serious financial crisis has risen and corrective action is needed to ward it off. Tunisia’s political system should be able to avoid such catastrophic outcomes. Most reasonable people agree that the risks are rising and that something needs to be done. However, the disagreement is over magnitude, timing, and the type of program required to address the country’s problems. A hard economic adjustment risks unleashing a sociopolitical crisis. Not engaging in a correction, however, may well engender a future economic meltdown. Buying time is easiest politically, but it often means only postponing the crisis, leading to an even larger explosion. The challenge is to find the narrow path to escape a crisis by generating confidence in a national program that is politically acceptable and that can lead to a brighter future. Faced with these negative dynamics—the lack of sustainability and economic regression—economic agents might not merely adjust to the new normal. Instead, they might try to push the burden elsewhere in the economy and by so doing unleash more destructive forces. Think of society, with its networked organizations, as a hydraulic system. As pressure mounts, weaker parts of the network are at risk. Pushing pressure out from one part, instead of addressing the root cause of the problem, only leads to more pressure on other parts. Ultimately, the system will burst at its most vulnerable point. Typically, deterioration is not linear. Pressure builds up in invisible ways until the system explodes in a generalized crisis. There are several ways in which this can happen: foreign exchange reserves are used up slowly until a run takes place and the currency collapses; financing the state’s losses drains the private sector, reducing investment, until there is a collapse in growth; taxes are raised or services reduced, or both, leading to a social explosion; fiscal losses are financed with new loans (or arrears) until creditors dry up, and printing money remains the only solution, leading to hyperinflation; or banks keep lending to the state until depositors lose confidence in the banking sector and there is a bank run. What is destroyed will have to be rebuilt from scratch at great cost. It is in this context that Carnegie’s new Tunisia Sustainability Lab is beginning its work. The objective is twofold. First, the lab will monitor the risks ahead and alert the public about developments. It will do so by preparing a regular scorecard of Tunisia’s economic, financial, fiscal, external, and sociopolitical domains. Second, the lab will track proposals advanced by national and international parties on possible pathways to progress, reporting on and analyzing initiatives to avoid the worst of them. So far, several International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposals have been rejected by the Tunisian authorities. There are alternative proposals, some outlined by civil society actors, but they have not materialized. To support social dialogue, we will highlight the various initiatives and try to evaluate their impact. We will also develop scenarios to assess macroeconomic trends, which we will update over time.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

798. Tracing the Roots of China’s AI Regulations

Author:
Matt Sheehan
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2021 and 2022, China became the first country to implement detailed, binding regulations on some of the most common applications of artificial intelligence (AI). These rules formed the foundation of China’s emerging AI governance regime, an evolving policy architecture that will affect everything from frontier AI research to the functioning of the world’s second-largest economy, from large language models in Africa to autonomous vehicles in Europe. U.S. political leaders often warn against letting China “write the rules of the road” in AI governance. But if the United States is serious about competing for global leadership in AI governance, then it needs to actually understand what it is competing against. That requires examining the nuts and bolts of both China’s AI regulations and the policy process that shaped them. This paper is the second in a series breaking down China’s AI regulations and pulling back the curtain on the policymaking process shaping them. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese government started that process with the 2021 rules on recommendation algorithms, an omnipresent use of the technology that is often overlooked in international AI governance discourse. Those rules imposed new obligations on companies to intervene in content recommendations, granted new rights to users being recommended content, and offered protections to gig workers subject to algorithmic scheduling. The Chinese party-state quickly followed up with a new regulation on “deep synthesis,” the use of AI to generate synthetic media such as deepfakes. Those rules required AI providers to watermark AI-generated content and ensure that content does not violate people’s “likeness rights” or harm the “nation’s image.” Together, these two regulations also created and amended China’s algorithm registry, a regulatory tool that would evolve into a cornerstone of the country’s AI governance regime. Contrary to popular conception in the rest of the world, China’s AI governance regime has not been created by top-down edicts from CCP leadership. President Xi Jinping and other top CCP leaders will sometimes give high-level guidance on policy priorities, but they have not been the key players when it comes to shaping China’s AI regulations. Instead, those regulations have been the product of a dynamic and iterative policymaking process driven by a mix of actors from both inside and outside the Chinese party-state. Those actors include mid-level bureaucrats, academics, technologists, journalists, and policy researchers at platform tech companies. Through a mix of public advocacy, intellectual debate, technical workshopping, and bureaucratic wrangling, these actors laid the foundations for China’s present and future AI regulations. This paper traces the progression of these regulations through the “policy funnel” (see figure 1) of Chinese AI governance. For both recommendation algorithms and deep synthesis rules, the initial spark for the regulation came from long-standing CCP concerns about the creation and dissemination of online content. For the former, the rise of the algorithmically driven news app Toutiao threatened the CCP’s ability to set a unified narrative and choose which stories are pushed to readers. In the case of deep synthesis, online face swap videos grabbed the attention of the Chinese public and led government regulators to consider the threat of deepfakes. Over the course of 2017–2020, these concerns made their way through China’s bureaucracy. Regulators took a series of stopgap measures in specific applications, while also tasking policy analysts and government-adjacent technical organizations with exploring different regulatory interventions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, and Asia

799. The risk of artificial intelligence: China edition

Author:
Filip Jirouš
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
We should be worried about China’s AI capacities, not only because it enhances the powers of the Party-state, but also because it is exporting its population control technology and policy abroad.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Artificial Intelligence, Social Control, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

800. “Condemned to Sacrifice” in the Shadow of Argentina’s Vaca Muerta

Author:
Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
From Patagonia, an environmental activist discusses her community’s struggle against a new oil pipeline and the threats of expanding extractivism in their territory.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Pipeline, and Activism
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Patagonia