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302. One Boat, Many Islands: Indigeneity, Solidarity, and Resistance in Contemporary Taiwan
- Author:
- Nicolai Volland and Ying Qian
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Dr. Nicolai Volland focuses on recent work by Syaman Rapongan and Wu Ming-yi to show how their writing pushes discourses of/about Indigeneity, in Taiwan and beyond, in new and unexpected directions. Speaker: Nicolai Volland, Associate Professor of Asian Studies and Comparative Literature at Penn State University. Dr. Volland’s work focuses on modern Chinese literature in its transnational dimensions, Sinophone literature, Taiwan literature, and archipelagic/oceanic studies. Moderator: Ying Qian, Associate Professor of East Asian Languages and Cultures, East Asian Languages and Cultures, Columbia Universit
- Topic:
- Solidarity, Indigenous, and Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
303. Authoritarian Absorption: The Transnational Remaking of Epidemic Politics in China
- Author:
- Yan Long and Qin Gao
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- April 23, 2026 — Yan Long examines how China absorbed global health norms while remaking epidemic politics through its own authoritarian logics. Her talk highlights the interplay between transnational influences, community activism, bureaucratic control, and digital statecraft in shaping China’s pandemic response. Her analysis draws on archival research, longitudinal ethnography, and interviews tracing China’s evolving epidemic governance across SARS, AIDS, and COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, COVID-19, Epidemic, Global Health, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
304. Russia-Africa Relations amid Global Geopolitical Shifts
- Author:
- Wojciech Kotowicz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The article examines the dynamics of Russia’s relations with African states against the backdrop of the post-2022 transformation of the international system. The research objective is to identify the geopolitical motivations behind Russia’s engagement in Africa, assess the instruments used to implement this policy, and delineate the prospects and constraints for Russia-Africa relations under conditions of growing multipolarity. The author argues that Russia’s expansion in Africa – though catalyzed by the international isolation resulting from its aggression against Ukraine – forms part of a broader strategy to assemble an alternative, anti-Western bloc in which Africa plays a key legitimating and symbolic role. The analysis covers the historical foundations of Russia-Africa relations from the Cold War era, the geopolitical drivers of Russia’s post-2022 engagement, and the instruments of Russian policy toward Africa, with particular attention to the military, economic, and information domains. The study shows that African states – especially military juntas in the Sahel – are not passive objects of Russian manipulation but active players pursuing their own survival strategies by diversifying international partnerships. The material underpinnings of Russia’s engagement, however, remain fragile: limited investment, a focus on extractive and defense sectors, and rising reputational costs indicate that Moscow is maximizing influence at minimal cost. The conclusion holds that the durability of Russia’s presence in Africa will be tested by the Kremlin’s capacity to sustain engagement amid a protracted war in Ukraine, by the evolving expectations of African publics, and by the response of the West and other global actors intensifying the competition for influence on the continent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Russia
305. Relations of the Russian Federation with African States in Russian Strategic Documents – Political and Military Dimension
- Author:
- Krzysztof Żęgota
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The article examines the evolution of the Russian Federation’s relations with African states through the lens of Russian strategic documents and foreign policy practices. It argues that Russia’s contemporary engagement in Africa reflects the implementation of priorities defined in successive national security strategies since 1997. Moscow’s approach integrates political and military dimensions, aiming to restore great-power status, secure geopolitical footholds, and counter Western influence. Politically, Russia presents itself as an anti-colonial partner advocating multipolarity and sovereignty, while militarily it strengthens ties through arms trade, training, and the deployment of private military contractors. Case studies of Egypt, Mali, and the Central African Republic illustrate how Russia’s strategic narratives have been translated into concrete diplomatic and security partnerships. In conclusion, the article argues that Russia’s policy toward Africa represents both a continuation of Soviet-era ambitions and a pragmatic adaptation to the geopolitical realities of the twenty-first century. By selectively deploying limited resources and focusing on strategically significant states, Russia has managed to expand its influence on the African continent despite growing competition from other international actors.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, and Military Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Russia
306. Institutional Quality and Economic Policy Strategies as Drivers of Competitiveness in African Economies
- Author:
- Oleksandra Werbowa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- This study examines the determinants of national competitiveness in African economies, with a particular focus on the role of institutional quality and economic policy strategies. The analysis is based on cross-sectional data for 2024 covering fifteen African countries and includes governance, competitiveness, and socio-economic indicators such as the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), IMD Competitiveness Score, GDP per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), and inflation rate. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and K-means cluster analysis were applied to identify structural relationships and country groupings. The results reveal a strong positive association between institutional quality and economic competitiveness, indicating that countries with stronger governance frameworks tend to achieve higher competitiveness levels. The cluster analysis identified three distinct groups of countries with differing institutional and development profiles. Countries characterized by higher governance quality, lower corruption, and stronger socio-economic performance demonstrate significantly higher competitiveness, while countries with weaker institutional frameworks face greater structural constraints. These findings confirm that institutional quality is a key determinant of competitiveness and highlight the importance of context-specific policy strategies. Strengthening governance effectiveness, improving institutional capacity, and supporting socio-economic development are essential for enhancing competitiveness and promoting sustainable economic growth in African economies.
- Topic:
- Governance, Economy, Economic Policy, Institutions, Multidimensional Analysis, and Cluster Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Africa
307. Trends in Regional Minilateralism: the Case of the Horn of Africa
- Author:
- Olha Ivasechko, Teresa Astramowicz-Leyk, and Yaryna Turchyn
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The article examines the phenomenon of minilateralism in the context of the Horn of Africa, a region known for its complex geopolitical situation, numerous conflicts and challenges. The author highlights key minilateral initiatives in the region. Among them is the Tripartite Agreement between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea, which aims to strengthen regional security and cooperation. The Horn of Africa Initiative, which focuses on economic development and integration, is also considered. Special attention is paid to the role of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) as an important platform for addressing regional challenges. The recent Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland is analyzed as an example of the latest minilateral agreements that can have a significant impact on the regional balance of power. The paper analyzes the main goals of these formations and their impact on regional security and development. Potential scenarios for the development of minilateralism in the Horn of Africa are considered. This includes the formation of competing blocs, the intensification of proxy conflicts, and the prospects for using minilateral initiatives to strengthen broader multilateral cooperation. The authors focus on exploring the key role of minilateralism in the Horn of Africa, analyzing its potential and challenges, and identifying possible ways to develop it in this critical region.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Minilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa
308. Energy Geopolitics of Africa: the Role of the Continent in the Global Energy Balance
- Author:
- Oleh Pekhnyk, Oleh Tsebenko, and Olha Ivasechko
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The article provides a comprehensive analysis of Africa’s energy geopolitics and its role in the global energy balance. The study covers the production, export and use of the continent’s main energy resources, including oil, natural gas and renewable energy sources. Particular attention is paid to the impact of geopolitical factors, international investment and economic policy on the energy sector of African countries. The article analyses the key challenges faced by the countries, including political instability, corruption, insufficient infrastructure and environmental threats that hinder the efficient use of energy resources. An important aspect of the study is an assessment of the role of major international players, such as China, the EU and the US, in the development of the African energy sector, as well as the prospects for Africa’s integration into global energy markets. The article analyses opportunities for expanding energy production and exports, renewable energy development, and potential scenarios for Africa’s future energy landscape in the context of the global energy transition. From a geopolitical perspective, Africa is playing an increasingly important role in the global energy balance due to its rich natural resources, growing investments in energy production and processing, and the development of renewable energy. The continent itself has significant potential in oil production, gas industry and solar energy, making it an important player in global energy geopolitics. The article analyses key trends, challenges and prospects for Africa in shaping global energy policy.
- Topic:
- Oil, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, Energy, Energy Security, and Natural Gas
- Political Geography:
- Africa
309. Natural Resources of the Western Sahara Region as a Factor of International Conflicts
- Author:
- Bohdana Haiduk and Yuliya Lemko
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The study places particular emphasis on the role of Western Sahara’s natural resources in international relations, with special attention given to the conflict associated with the occupation by the Kingdom of Morocco. The territory of Western Sahara contains a variety of natural resources, such as phosphates, fisheries, and minor reserves of oil and gas, which are important for the energy sector, among others. These resources have become a significant factor in geopolitical processes at both regional and international levels. The paper highlights the specific features of the legal regulation regarding the use of these resources within the territory. The research examines the impact of natural resources on the political process of legitimizing Morocco’s occupation of the territory and analyzes the main export directions of these resources. Furthermore, the study characterizes Western Sahara’s resources as instruments of foreign policy. The role of the United Nations in addressing the conflict is explored, alongside an analysis of the European Union’s position on the Western Sahara dispute. Finally, the paper evaluates the involvement of international actors in the conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Legitimization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Morocco, and Western Sahara
310. The European Union – Africa Partnership
- Author:
- Waldemar Tomaszewski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- This article examines the current state of the EU’s partnership with African countries. It analyzes the state of political and economic cooperation, as well as cooperation in building civil society. The article’s structure encompasses the origins of EU-Africa relations, the main areas of cooperation, and the anticipated directions of their development. The research primarily utilizes institutional, legal, and systemic approaches. Historical methods are used to a lesser extent. The main goal is to determine the scale of EU assistance to African countries and the priority sectors of cooperation. The main hypothesis is: Africa’s importance in the international system is growing rapidly, which is why the European Union is redefining its partnership with Africa, recognizing the continent as an equal partner. This hypothesis was positively verified during the analysis. The article is based primarily on information contained in official documents of EU and African Union institutions. Furthermore, available literature relevant to the subject matter was utilized.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
311. “Luciérnagas en El Mozote” And The Battle Over Historical Memory in El Salvador
- Author:
- Kevin Ramírez
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A state-backed film detailing the 1981 massacre at El Mozote raises thorny questions about the country’s civil war as the victims continue fighting for justice.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Transitional Justice, Memory, and Accountability
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and El Salvador
312. An LGBTQ+ Win in the Dominican Republic Comes Under Fire
- Author:
- Simón Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Despite the recent decriminalization of same-sex relationships in the armed forces and police, the ruling is being attacked by the right-wing government and its allies.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, LGBT+, Police, Decriminalization, and Right-Wing Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Dominican Republic
313. Bolivians Enter a New Era of Popular Struggles
- Author:
- Gabriel Rodríguez García
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- After a series of protests over cuts to fuel subsidies brought the country to a halt, Bolivia’s powerful social movements embark on a new chapter and face new forms of repression.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Repression, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Bolivia
314. Colombia Debates “Total Peace” and “Total War”
- Author:
- Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The June 21 presidential runoff will feature starkly different approaches to the growing power of armed and criminal groups.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Elections, Organized Crime, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
315. Who are the Israel-backed armed groups fighting Hamas in Gaza?
- Author:
- Nasser Khdour
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- When Hamas rejected a proposal by the United States-backed Board of Peace for the group’s full disarmament, it pointed not only to Israel’s continued violations of the ceasefire, but also to its support for anti-Hamas armed groups.1 While fears of continued Israeli attacks reinforce Hamas’ assertion that full disarmament would leave Gaza defenseless, the growing activity of Israel-backed groups has further hardened its position. As long as Israel continues providing these groups with weapons, training, and other support, their activities are likely to intensify. Violence from these groups will make Hamas even less willing to compromise on disarmament. Still, the groups don’t pose a credible threat to Hamas’ existence on their own. Anti-Hamas groups have grown in number and become more active since the October ceasefire. At least five of these groups now operate from Israel-controlled areas east of the Yellow Line across all Gaza governorates (see visual below). ACLED records more than 40 violent events since October involving these groups that resulted in nearly 80 fatalities. Their activity has intensified since February 2026, which coincided with the US’ efforts to advance phase 2 of President Donald Trump’s plan to end the conflict in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Hamas, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
316. Economic shockwaves from the Iran war fuel protests across South Asia
- Author:
- Pearl Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- South Asia was one of the first regions to experience the economic fallout from the Iran conflict. The impacts are only increasing with time, and growing economic hardship, along with governments’ responses, has already translated into unrest. ACLED records more than 1,200 demonstrations across South Asia related to the economic impact of the Iran war, including over a shortage of cooking gas and fuel and the rising cost of living. No country in the region is immune to the economic fallout, and protests over the rising cost of living have been recorded in each one of them (see map below). Across South Asia, these demonstrations have increased from an average of three per day before the war to 15 now. This increase has been most stark in Pakistan and Nepal, countries especially reliant on oil and gas imports and remittances from the Gulf. India, given its size, also unsurprisingly recorded a significant number of demonstrations on the issue. An outlier is Bangladesh, the third-most populous country in the region, with similar economic dependencies but relatively few protests. Its government’s early introduction of mitigating measures has seemingly bought it time.
- Topic:
- Economics, Protests, Armed Conflict, and 2026 Iran War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, South Asia, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Maldives
317. When do voters stop caring? Estimating the shape of voters' utility functions
- Author:
- Aleksandra Conevska and Can Mutlu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we address a longstanding puzzle over the functional form that better approximates voter utility from political choices. Though it has become the norm in the literature to represent voter utility with concave loss functions, for decades scholars have underscored this assumption’s potential shortcomings. Yet there exists little to no evidence to support one functional form assumption over another. We fill this gap by first identifying electoral settings where the different functional forms generate divergent predictions about voter behavior. We then assess which functional form better matches observed voter and abstention behavior using Cast Vote Record (CVR) data that captures the anonymized ballots of millions of voters in the 2020 U.S. general election. Our findings indicate that concave loss functions fail to predict voting and abstention behavior, and it is the reverse S-shaped loss functions, such as the Gaussian function, that better match voter behavior.
- Topic:
- Politics, Voting, and Voting Behavior
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
318. The Economic Returns of Firms' Political Connections
- Author:
- Lucas Braga de Melo and Valdemar Pinho Neto
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the economic returns to political connections in Brazilian local elections, focusing not only on traditional campaign donations but also on two novel channels: firms that provide goods or services to candidates during campaigns and firms’ owners affiliated with parties within a coalition running for mayor. Employing regression discontinuity and event study methods around close mayoral races, we find that politically connected firms substantially increase both their likelihood of securing procurement contracts and the value of those contracts, though without corresponding gains in employment or wages. This paper contributes to the literature on political connections by documenting the emergence of indirect political connections and public procurement allocation in a context of weak institutional constraints.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Elections, Business, Procurement, and Local Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
319. Disrupting Violence, Protecting Lives: Strangulation Laws and Intimate Partner Homicides
- Author:
- D'ercio de Assis, Arpita Ghosh, Sonia Oreffice, and Climent Quintana-Domeque
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- Non-fatal strangulation (NFS) is a form of intimate partner violence (IPV) and a strong predictor of intimate partner homicide (IPH). We compile NFS statute data, link them to homicide reports, 1990–2019, and estimate effects on IPH using a two-stage difference-in-differences estimator for staggered adoption and heterogeneous effects. NFS laws reduce IPH for ages 18–49, by 0.169 female-victim homicides per 100,000 women and 0.090 male-victim homicides per 100,000 men. We find no effects on IPH for ages 50–70 or on stranger-perpetrated homicides. Evidence from reported IPV incidents is suggestive of changes in reported incident classification and arrest patterns.
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Violence, Intimate Partner Violence, and Strangulation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
320. Has Syria turned a corner on the landmine threat?
- Author:
- Muaz Al Abdullah
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- While Syria's security landscape has shifted since the fall of the Assad regime, the deadliest threat to civilians is no longer concentrated on active frontlines. Instead, it lies hidden beneath the ground. Landmines and Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) continue to kill and injure civilians across the country.
- Topic:
- Security, Syrian War, and Landmines
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
321. Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations
- Author:
- Nicholas Burns and Yasheng Huang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 Speakers: Nicholas Burns is the Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He is the founder and faculty chair of the Future of Diplomacy Project and a faculty affiliate at Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Burns worked in the United States government for over three decades, serving six presidents and nine secretaries of state. Most recently, he served as the US ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 2021-2025, leading public servants from forty-eight US government agencies at the US mission to China in overseeing one of America's most important bilateral relationships. Moderator: Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He also serves as the faculty director of the MIT-China Program at the Center for International Studies. From 2013 to 2017, he served as an associate dean of MIT Sloan’s GlobalPartnership programs and its Action Learning initiatives. His previous appointments include faculty positions at the University of Michigan and at Harvard Business School. Huang is the author of 11 books in both English and Chinese and of many academic papers. His most recent book, “The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to its Decline”, was a 2023 Best Book of the Year by Foreign Affairs magazine.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
322. AI and Propaganda: Nothing Is True, and Everything Is Generated
- Author:
- Halyna Padalko and Peter Pomerantsev
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- A public conversation with Peter Pomerantsev, British-Ukrainian author, journalist, and one of the world's leading voices on propaganda and authoritarian disinformation. His books "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible," "This Is Not Propaganda," and "How to Win an Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler" have defined how a generation understands modern information warfare. A senior fellow at the SNF Agora Institute at John Hopkins University, Pomerantsev has spent decades documenting how autocratic regimes weaponize media, narrative, and, now, artificial intelligence to destabilize democracies and erode the very idea of truth. As AI reshapes the information landscape at breathtaking speed, this conversation asks the questions that matter most: How does AI-powered propaganda differ from what came before — and how do new technologies shape public reality? What happens to our collective capacity for critical thinking when personalized, algorithmically generated realities become the new normality? How can AI help us to protect ourselves from information manipulation? Who are the main actors in disinformation as a business, and what can the world learn from Ukraine, which has become an unexpected laboratory for countering disinformation under existential pressure?
- Topic:
- Propaganda, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, and Information Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
323. Focus on Eurasia: Putin’s War Against the West
- Author:
- John J. Sullivan, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Focus on Eurasia: Putin’s War Against the West: A Conversation with the Former US Ambassador to the Russian Federation | Monday, March 16, 2026 Speaker: Ambassador John J. Sullivan is the former US deputy secretary of state and former US ambassador to the Russian Federation. His career spans four decades in public service in prominent diplomatic and legal positions under five US presidents. He is a non-resident distinguished senior fellow with the National Security Law Program as well as a partner in Mayer Brown’s Washington DC and New York offices. He co-leads the firm’s National Security practice. Co-chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program at the Center for International Studies (CIS). She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, the political cult of WWII, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and US-Russian Partnerships in Science. She is the faculty director of the Center’s MIT-Ukraine Program and co-faculty director of the MIT-Eurasia Program.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Populism, Vladimir Putin, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America
324. GR&P Seminar: How Nationalist Polarization Threatens Democracy: Lessons from South Korea
- Author:
- Aram Hur
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- On December 3, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol shocked the world by declaring martial law. How could a thriving democracy backslide so quickly? This crisis reveals a deeper issue: the impact of nationalist polarization—when political parties are divided by conflicting nationalist visions. This type of polarization is especially harmful because it undermines the foundations of democracy. In countries with histories of nationalist conflict, like South Korea and the United States, nationalist polarization becomes a persistent barrier, limiting how strong and stable democracy can be. Aram Hur is Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Kim Koo Chair in Korean Studies at the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University. She is a scholar of nationalism and democracy. Her book, Narratives of Civic Duty: How National Stories Shape Democracy in Asia (Cornell University Press, 2022), is the winner of the 2023 Robert A. Dahl Award for “scholarship of the highest quality on the subject of democracy” from the American Political Science Association.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Democracy, Polarization, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
325. Geopolitics of the Strait of Hormuz
- Author:
- Nader Habibi, Ali Kadivar, Caitlin Talmadge, and Dafna Rand
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Geopolitics of the Strait of Hormuz | Monday, March 30, 2026 In a rapidly evolving region, gain clarity beyond the headlines. Panelists: Nader Habibi, Henry J. Leir Professor of Practice in the Economics of the Middle East, Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Brandeis University Ali Kadivar, Associate Professor of Sociology and International Studies, Boston College; Fellow, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University Caitlin Talmadge, Raphael Dorman and Helen Starbuck Associate Professor of Political Science, MIT; Faculty Affiliate, Center for Nuclear Security Policy, MIT Security Studies Program Dafna Rand, Robert E. Wilhelm Fellow, Center for International Studies; Former US Assistant Secretary of State Moderator: Richard Nielsen, Associate Professor of Political Science, MIT; Faculty Director, MIT-MENA, MIT Center for International Studies; Affiliate, MIT Security Studies Program and MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society This event is sponsored by the MIT-MENA Program.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Trade, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Persian Gulf, United States of America, and Strait of Hormuz
326. Starr Forum: New World Disorder: What’s the Humanitarian Perspective?
- Author:
- David Miliband and John Deutch
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: New World Disorder: What’s the Humanitarian Perspective? | Thursday, April 9, 2026 Speaker: David Miliband, president, International Rescue Committee (IRC), and former foreign secretary for the United Kingdom (2007-2010). He oversees the IRC’s operations in more than 40 crisis-affected countries and its refugee resettlement and assistance programs throughout Europe and the Americas. He is a 1987 graduate of Oxford, with a degree in philosophy, politics, and economics, and earned a master’s degree in political science in 1989 from MIT. Moderator: John Deutch is an American civil servant and physical chemist. He was the United States deputy secretary of defense from 1994 to 1995 and director of Central Intelligence from May 10, 1995, until December 15, 1996. He is an emeritus Institute Professor at MIT.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Geopolitics, International Order, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
327. GR&P Seminar: Sanction Spillover and Trade Diversification
- Author:
- Christina L. Davis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- How do sanctions affect third-party states? This research, conducted with Ruofan Ma (Harvard), examines how states respond to the systemic risks caused by sanctions by diversifying their trade portfolios. Analyzing trade concentration and sanction data from 1990 to 2020 and also looking at the specific case of President Trump's 2018 national security tariffs, we find that states diversify their trading partners when sanctions disrupt their existing trade partner networks. These findings highlight the spillover effects of sanctions and the dynamics of trade interdependence.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Tariffs, Risk, Trade, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
328. The Recruitment and Use of Children as a Stand-Alone Crime Against Humanity
- Author:
- Janine Morna and Laura Perez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- As United Nations Member States prepare to negotiate a new Convention based on the Draft Articles on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Humanity (Draft Articles),1 the international community faces a critical opportunity to close a longstanding gap in protection and accountability. Despite decades of prevention efforts, the recruitment and use of children by State and non-State armed actors remains widespread and devastating. Children are forced to serve in a range of roles, including as fighters, porters, messengers and spies in armed conflict and in other situations of violence. The future Convention presents a moment to explicitly recognize the recruitment and use of children as a constituent act of crimes against humanity. This would ensure that such exploitation is punishable as a crime against humanity when it forms part of a widespread or systematic attack against a civilian population, regardless of whether the situation is formally classified as an armed conflict. It also offers an important step toward aligning international criminal law with international norms prohibiting compulsory recruitment and direct participation in hostilities of people aged 15 to 17.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Crimes Against Humanity, Armed Conflict, and Child Soldiers
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
329. The Ethics of Externalization in the United Kingdom, Denmark and Australia: Third-Country Resettlement and Refugee Rights
- Author:
- Noah Eshaghpour-Silberman, Cooper Austen, Aidan Gouley, and Alexa Marsh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Across the Global North, governments are experimenting with “externalization” policies that relocate elements of border control, asylum processing, or long-term protection beyond their territory. Focusing on the United Kingdom, Denmark, and Australia, this brief argues that third-country processing or resettlement can be justified only under demanding, independently verified conditions concerning state capacity, rule of law, non-refoulement, legal protection, and genuine integration in the receiving country.
- Topic:
- Border Control, Refugees, Resettlement, Asylum, and Externalization
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Denmark, and Australia
330. Partnership or Pressure: The Australia-Nauru Relationship
- Author:
- Alayshja Bable, TJ Eyerman, Willem Maniago, Justin Tim, Danielle Williams, and Laura Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Australia’s September 2025 agreement with Nauru to transfer members of the “NZYQ cohort” marked a consequential shift in Australian migration policy after the High Court’s 2023 ruling against indefinite immigration detention where there is no real prospect of removal. The brief develops an ethical framework for evaluating such arrangements, focusing on voluntariness, due process, proportionality, safety and dignity, social unity, shared responsibility, and accountability.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Asylum, Migration Policy, and Immigration Detention
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Nauru
331. A More Transparent Alternative: Re-evaluating Canada’s Alternatives to Detention (ATD) Model
- Author:
- Amna Cesic, Elaine Gao, Aidan Moes, and Vaishnavi Murthy
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Canada’s Alternatives to Detention system is intended to make immigration detention a last resort by releasing individuals into community supervision or electronic monitoring. This brief argues that ATD can blur the boundary between carceral and community spaces and proposes reforms to improve transparency, accountability, oversight, and access to less restrictive forms of support.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Detention, Monitoring, and Migration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
332. What’s New Is Old: The Enduring Challenge of Non-State Armed Actors in the Post-October 7 Landscape
- Author:
- Grace Wermenbol
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- While these groups may not have the resources or structure of traditional states, they play a major role in the continuation, or cessation, of conflict in the region.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Palestine, and Lebanon
333. From Vietnam to Campus Encampments & Anti-Ice Protests: A Legal History of Federal Cases On Student First Amendment Rights
- Author:
- Jacob Blau
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Students who have been silenced for their participation in recent protests should be aware of a deep legal history that has seen federal courts grapple with and protect the concept of student free speech.
- Topic:
- Protests, Free Speech, 2023 Gaza War, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States of America, Palestine, Vietnam, and North America
334. Minnesota’s Perfect ICE Storm
- Author:
- Zoe Carver
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As Minneapolis once again becomes the center of national protests, a dive into the state’s recent history of racial tensions and police violence reveals just why the North Star City has come head-to-head with the executive branch.
- Topic:
- Protests, Police Brutality, Immigration Policy, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
- Political Geography:
- North America, Minnesota, and United States of America
335. The Complexity of Mediating the Libyan Quagmire
- Author:
- Abdussalam Elbelazi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Mediators in Libya hoping to create a mechanism to establish an egalitarian and inclusive state often find themselves challenged by factional politics, foreign interventions, and a heritage of repressive authoritarianism.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Repression, Mediation, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
336. Sudan’s Water Crisis Worsened by War, But There is Hope
- Author:
- Lama Elhatow
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As Sudan continues to face numerous obstacles, including a lack of multilateral governance for hydrological stability, water remains a potential entry point for cooperation domestically, regionally, and internationally.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Water, Governance, Crisis Management, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
337. The War in Sudan Is Fought Over the Bodies of Women
- Author:
- Tahani Abbas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Women should play more than symbolic roles in any peacemaking efforts in Sudan; they must be allowed genuine political participation to protect themselves and build a more inclusive country.
- Topic:
- Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Political Participation, and Peacemaking
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
338. The Dynamics of War, Politics, and Peace in the Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Salem
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The justifications, enactments, and conclusions of the various conflicts that arose in the aftermath of October 7 remain murky, but historical and modern theories of war light a path toward future stability.
- Topic:
- Political stability, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
339. Between Ambition and Abandonment: Lessons from Mediating the Syria Conflict
- Author:
- Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The ruins of failed negotiations, committees, and conferences on the Syrian issue can offer guidance to future peacemakers.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Negotiation, Mediation, Armed Conflict, and Peacemaking
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
340. Local Mediation in Southwestern Yemen Alleviates Life Under Siege
- Author:
- Maeen Al-Obaidi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- For the residents of Taiz under one of the longest military blockades in history, life became a daily struggle of days-long journeys searching for food, water, and vital medical supplies. This is the story of one Yemeni woman whose name became synonymous with bringing the warring parties together.
- Topic:
- Mediation, Armed Conflict, Siege, and Blockade
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
341. Reconciling a Fractured Sudan
- Author:
- Nureldin Satti
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- To address Sudan’s problems, the efforts of the Sudanese people and international mediators must be synchronized.
- Topic:
- Protests, Reconciliation, Mediation, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
342. Anchoring Ukraine’s postwar recovery with a US-Ukraine free trade agreement
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- An FTA with the United States would help Ukraine achieve stronger investor protections, regulatory transparency, and anticorruption and dispute settlement mechanisms that anchor private investment needed to support reconstruction and sustain long-term growth. For the United States, Ukraine offers a strategically valuable production platform: a large, skilled workforce; a legacy industrial base; and significant reserves of critical minerals, metals, and agricultural inputs needed for energy transition, defense, and supply chain resilience. Passage of a US-Ukraine FTA in Congress could be controversial because it would bundle together some of the most contentious issues in US trade politics—agriculture, investor protection, government procurement, digital rules, and market access—into one high-salience vote. Policymakers could start by advancing more limited agreements as precursors to a comprehensive FTA. Accession to the European Union will be the core of Ukraine’s reconstruction strategy, implying that a US-Ukraine FTA should be designed to complement, rather than compete with, EU integration. Body Ukraine’s reconstruction is often framed as a financing challenge, but the bigger challenge is institutional: Ukraine must credibly reassure domestic and foreign investors that market-oriented rules, transparent regulation, private property protection, and contract enforcement will prevail and that its territorial integrity will be secure. A free trade agreement with the United States can help Ukraine provide this assurance.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Trade Policy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Free Trade Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
343. The European Union and the war in Ukraine: More money, but not more Europe
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Despite the increasingly direct military threat from Russia and a weakening US commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union’s 27 member states have proven unwilling to harness their union to provide a common defense. Instead, EU members have responded individually, based on their own national interests and circumstances, such as their geographic proximity to Russia and levels of government debt. Failure to act collectively represents a wasted opportunity with potentially far-reaching and negative implications for the prospects of any further meaningful EU institutional integration. This Policy Brief analyzes the drivers of rearmament, especially military aid to Ukraine, and the ways in which such aid is increasingly being provided by different “coalitions of the willing” consisting of subsets of EU members and other countries, working with the Ukrainian military industrial sector. Kirkegaard argues that this approach will likely reduce the European Union to a peripheral role in providing for the continent’s military defense and national security. Instead, the European Union’s principal role will be that of a financier, limited to providing financial support for Ukraine, increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, overseeing Kyiv’s accession to the European Union, and trying to carve out a coordinating role in EU defense-related research and development. Rather than the European Union as a single institution, subsets of EU members together with nonmembers will drive European rearmament and the establishment of a largely independent long-term military deterrent to Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
344. The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?
- Author:
- Gregory Auclair and Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump's "America First" agenda, the administration has pressured allies and partners to invest in US industrial and infrastructure projects. The White House has announced commitments by the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, several Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and others, to import specific amounts of goods and services from the United States and to make sizable investments on US soil. These agreements resulted from a more coercive US foreign policy than in the past. Because the administration is helping select the targets of foreign investment, it is embarking on a major expansion of US industrial policy—one paid for by allied countries. This Policy Brief shows that much about investment pledges, worth more than $5 trillion, remains unclear or aspirational.
- Topic:
- Politics, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Policy, and America First
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
345. The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons
- Author:
- Karen Dynan and David Wilcox
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The COVID era inflation surge was shaped by an unusual confluence of shocks and policy responses. It nonetheless raises enduring questions about the interaction of demand, supply, expectations, and policy frameworks that decision-makers are likely to confront again. In this Policy Brief, Dynan and Wilcox distill lessons from a broad body of work produced as part of the Peterson Institute for International Economics' Understanding the COVID Era Inflation project, which brought together an extensive group of experts to examine the different facets of the inflation surge. Dynan and Wilcox synthesize the group's insights to recount the origin of the surge, evaluate the key causes and consequences, discuss the limits and strengths of policy tools, and offer lessons for policymakers to deal with future undesirable increases in inflation.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Economy, Inflation, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
346. As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap?
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural research and development (R&D) and have had to depend increasingly on themselves—and one another—to meet rising food needs. Hendrix argues that the BRICS+ economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia—are well positioned to fill the world’s food security gap.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Markets, Foreign Aid, BRICS, Food Assistance, and Biotechnology
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
347. Can Trump keep his tariffs if the Supreme Court invalidates them?
- Author:
- Alan Wm. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s trade team has vowed to employ alternative legal strategies to keep its high tariff wall in place if the Supreme Court invalidates President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” by striking down his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose them. Wolff reviews the four possible tariff statutes that could be invoked— Sections 122, 338, 301, and 232—but they have major limitations. Each is either narrow, temporary, or specific, compared with IEEPA, and cannot be used to recreate Trump’s across-the-board tariff wall.
- Topic:
- Politics, Supreme Court, Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
348. Shifting Grounds: Public Opinion and the Future of Trilateral Cooperation in the United States, South Korea, and Japan
- Author:
- Je Heon (James) Kim
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The August 2023 trilateral summit at Camp David marked a historic milestone in U.S.-South Korea-Japan relations, establishing new frameworks for crisis consultation, information-sharing, military exercises, and cooperation on critical supply chains. Two years on, the durability of that achievement is being tested by a turbulent second Donald Trump administration, rising Chinese assertiveness, an entrenched North Korean nuclear program, and unresolved historical tensions between South Korea and Japan. Whether the Camp David framework endures will depend not only on the decisions of leaders but on the publics whose support sustains them. This report presents findings from comprehensive public opinion surveys conducted in the United States, South Korea, and Japan in August 2025. It examines where the three countries’ publics converge, where they diverge, and what those patterns mean for the future of trilateral cooperation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, and Trilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
349. Trilateralism Through Transition: Reflections on U.S.-South Korea-Japan Cooperation From Experts and Emerging Leaders
- Author:
- Korea Economic Institute of America
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Two years after the Camp David summit among the United States, South Korea, and Japan institutionalized trilateral cooperation, the partnership faces new challenges amid leadership transitions in all three capitals. To assess the stakes, the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) and The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation convened a public panel with Zack Cooper (CSIS), Shihoko Goto (Mansfield Foundation), and Eun A Jo (William & Mary). Drawing on insights from these experts, 15 competitively selected emerging leaders joined a private roundtable to develop blue-sky ideas for the future of trilateral cooperation. This report offers timely perspectives for the policy community on how the three partners can sustain momentum amidst uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, Leadership, and Trilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
350. Energy Shock and Economic Resilience: South Korea and the Iran War
- Author:
- Tom Ramage
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The 2026 Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have upended global trade and energy access, prompting governments in Asia and around the world to take measures to secure supply chains, ensure continued power generation, and stabilize domestic economies. The disruption to shipments, shortages of key materials, and substantial increases in crude oil and transportation fuel prices raise questions about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the Korean economy and whether it presents a true crisis. This report examines key indicators and signals on the impact of the Iran war on Korea’s economy and assesses the general outlook going forward.
- Topic:
- Economics, Trade, Energy, and 2026 Iran War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Asia, South Korea, and Strait of Hormuz
351. Innovation as resilience: Demand-side strategies for critical mineral supply chain security
- Author:
- Alexis Harmon and Reed Blakemore
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report, the first in the Redefining Resilience series of publications, examines demand-side innovation for critical mineral supply chains: the set of strategies that reduce how much of a constrained mineral an economy requires and expand the range of viable supply options. It argues that critical mineral supply chain policy has a structural blind spot. It has been organized around the question of where materials come from while largely ignoring an equally consequential set of questions: how much of these materials economies actually need, how that demand is shaped, and who shapes demand. Material substitution, material efficiency, and system and product redesign are not substitutes for supply-side investment, but they are essential complements that remain underused. Drawing on a roundtable convened under the Chatham House Rule by the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, this report examines two sectors, batteries and permanent magnets, to show how demand-side innovation either reaches deployment or stalls. The barriers are concrete and addressable: financing systems poorly structured for first-of-kind technology, procurement frameworks that privilege incumbent materials, qualification processes that slow substitution, and, overarchingly, a policy architecture focused overwhelmingly on supply. Closing these gaps requires targeted interventions: demand-pull mechanisms that bolster markets for alternative technologies, standards reform that enables substitution, and better coordination that brings manufacturers and system designers into supply chain policy alongside miners and processors. The goal is not to replace supply-side interventions but to build the complementary demand-side infrastructure needed to strengthen and de-risk mineral supply chains.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Innovation, Supply Chains, Energy, Energy Security, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
352. Powering data centers in emerging markets
- Author:
- Phillip Cornell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The rise of artificial intelligence and global demand for cloud computing is rapidly redrawing the geography of digital infrastructure. The International Energy Agency projects that global data center electricity consumption will more than double by 2030 to 945 terawatt hours, with AI-optimized servers driving the bulk of that growth. As mature digital hubs in the United States, Europe, and East Asia run up against the limits of grid capacity, permitting cycles, and land availability, investment is shifting toward emerging markets. Large parts of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and the Black Sea region feature available land, high renewables potential, stranded energy, and accelerating digital demand. This report examines the conditions under which emerging economies can convert that interest into durable, smart, digital infrastructure. It argues that emerging markets are not merely overflow capacity for saturated hubs but increasingly demand centers in their own right; India for example hosts 20 percent of the world’s data yet accounts for less than 6 percent of global capacity. The same markets, however, present structural risks: limited grid redundancy, volatile electricity pricing, uneven regulation, equipment bottlenecks, and shallow workforce pipelines. Drawing on case studies from Malaysia’s Johor corridor, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, and India, the report shows how hybrid energy strategies, coordinated permitting, and workforce investment can convert latent advantages into bankable infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Infrastructure, Artificial Intelligence, Energy, and Data Centers
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Asia, Turkey, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific
353. Promote the antidote: Reducing the risk from toxins
- Author:
- Bipartison Commission on Biodefense at Atlantic Council
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- While toxins occur naturally, contaminating food and feed with sometimes deadly consequences, malevolent actors have weaponized toxins for assassination and mass-casualty terror. Nation-states, terrorists, and lone actors continue to produce and weaponize these agents. The February 2026 confirmation by European governments that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was assassinated using epibatidine (a lethal neurotoxin derived from a South American poison dart frog) underscores the twenty-first century reality of state-sponsored toxin warfare. Yet, national and international defenses remain fractionated. Efforts to address toxin threats span the agriculture, defense, law enforcement, and public health sectors, which often operate in silos. The policymaking community is not fully aware of the expansion of the threat from toxins, instead focusing on contagious biological threats arising from viruses and bacteria. Significant and systemic governmental policy gaps persist despite a clear history of accidental contamination, criminal use, and the continued development of toxins in foreign offensive biological weapons programs. The United States cannot afford to ignore these vulnerabilities. It must identify and bridge these policy gaps immediately, as any biological event involving toxins will have profound implications for national and global security.
- Topic:
- Security, Biodefense, Defense Technology, and Toxins
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
354. Mapping mobility and opportunity: How place, gender, and ethnicity shape economic outcomes in Ecuador
- Author:
- Paolo Brunori, Diego del Pozo, H. Xavier Jara, and Lorena Moreno
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Integrating administrative data from the civil registry, social security, and national censuses, we provide novel evidence on intergenerational income mobility and equality of opportunity among 514,890 formal workers in Ecuador. Our results show substantial intergenerational mobility (rank–rank slope 0.22, elasticity 0.17). Formal employment substantially equalizes mobility: gender differences are minimal, and ethnic disparities are compressed, although ethnic minorities face barriers at the bottom. Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) endogenously identifies 63 spatially homogeneous areas based on intergenerational income elasticity (IGE) and highlights a large degree of variation, with elasticities ranging from 0.09 to 0.23. We complement our analysis with a Roemerian equality of opportunity framework using transformation trees, which shows that equality of opportunity is relatively limited: the worst-off earn 74% of average income, and circumstances predict 33% of total inequality. Our findings suggest that stable formal employment serves as an important equalizing mechanism for intergenerational mobility among formal sector workers, though the persistent ethnic disparities and spatial heterogeneity we observe point to remaining challenges in achieving equality of opportunity across all groups and regions in Ecuador.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Machine Learning, Social Mobility, and Equal Opportunity
- Political Geography:
- South America and Ecuador
355. Social protection in South Korea: Transition from the developmental to the universal welfare state
- Author:
- Huck-ju Kwon and Eunju Kim
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- South Korea’s social protection system has undergone a profound transformation from a developmental welfare state, in which social protection policies were subordinated to the economic development goal, to a universal welfare state. This study traces this trajectory by examining six key programmes—Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance, National Health Insurance, National Pension, Employment Insurance, the National Basic Livelihood Security Scheme, and the Basic Pension—focusing on their functions, policy design, coverage expansion, and responses to new social risks. Findings show that initial programmes targeted formal-sector workers to support industrialization, but were gradually expanded to encompass broader populations. They were sequentially extended from large enterprises to small firms and then to the general population, with contribution rates increased incrementally to ensure administrative feasibility and fiscal sustainability. Democratization and electoral competition opened policy windows for universalization, while economic crises accelerated programme inclusivity. The analysis reveals that social protection facilitated structural economic transformation while progressively recognizing social rights. However, persistent labour market dualism, population aging, and high elderly poverty underscore the need for recalibrating Korea’s welfare system toward greater inclusivity and sustainability.
- Topic:
- Development, Welfare, and Social Protection
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
356. Intergenerational mobility through the lens of the elderly: New estimates from India and a comparison with existing measures
- Author:
- Rajdeep Chaudhuri, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, and Kunal Sen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The literature on intergenerational mobility for many countries in the world focus on household surveys that capture the education of parents and their children. While they pay particular attention to issues regarding co-residency of fathers and son, they are somewhat weaker in information on women: daughters who live with their in-laws as well as resident women outside the reproductive age group (15--49), for whom information on parents is typically missing. In this paper we examine how estimates from a nationally representative survey of the elderly in India (LASI)---that over-samples adults who are 45 years and above and contains information about their parents---compare with existing studies that provide analogous estimates. We find that while estimates using father-son pairs are similar to extant literature on India, we can provide robust estimates for pairs that involve women, as parents and daughters, due to a relatively larger sample size, especially for the period before 1970s. Thus, we contend that LASI can be especially useful for studying temporal changes in human capital investment in daughters relative to sons.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Capital, Survey, and Social Mobility
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
357. Does implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) increase resource revenue in developing countries?
- Author:
- Neerbewendé Abdoul Rachid Pafadnam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The need for developing countries to increase their domestic revenue has always been relevant, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, which weakened their public finances. This paper analyses the dynamic treatment effects of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) implementation on resource revenue mobilization. We use a sample of 83 developing countries from 1995 to 2019, and our empirical strategy relies on the recent dynamic heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences estimator. Our results show that implementing the EITI increases resource revenue in member countries through improved governance from greater transparency, increased foreign direct investment, and extractive resource exports. These findings are robust to several robustness checks. This study highlights the significant contribution of the EITI implementation in domestic revenue mobilization and the necessity to improve transparency in natural resources management, especially as international demand for critical mineral resources is expected to grow strongly.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, COVID-19, Extractive Industries, and Revenue
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
358. Jihadist taxation and order-making in Mali and Niger
- Author:
- Yvan Guichaoua and Ferdaous Bouhlel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the forms of taxation practised by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State branches operating in Mali and Niger. It builds on insights from the rebel governance literature and an original conceptualisation of jihadist taxation and its effects. Unlike classic perspectives in the rebel governance literature, we argue for an ‘all at once’ approach to jihadist governance and warfare, where taxation is the beginning and the end of acts of warfare due to the fundamental political nature of Islamic taxation. Empirically, we stress the adaptiveness of jihadist groups to local circumstances, alternatively for doctrinal or pragmatic reasons.
- Topic:
- Governance, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Conflict, Tax Systems, and Jihadism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, and Niger
359. Israel-Kurd Relations in the Middle East Post-October 7
- Author:
- Uri Zaki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This policy paper examines the relationship between Israel and the Kurdish nation against the backdrop of the dramatic changes in the Middle East since the events of October 7, 2023. The collapse of the old order in Syria, developments in the Turkish arena, and the deepening confrontation between Israel and Iran have created a new regional reality in which the Kurds – a nation of 40 million dispersed across Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran – have become a significant actor in shaping the regional balance of power. This paper is based on in-depth discussions with senior Kurdish officials and opinion leaders from the four major territories populated by Kurds, and seeks to diverge from an approach that views the Kurds as an assemblage of disparate communities. Consistently emerging from these discussions is the perception of the Kurds as a single nation despite the political and legal differences between their various concentrations, and the expectation of Israel to adopt an overarching long-term policy, tailored to the various Kurdish arenas. From Israel’s perspective, its relations with the Kurds should be considered an independent component of its regional policy rather than a by-product of its confrontations with other regional actors. In the Syrian arena, the continued existence of effective Kurdish autonomy serves Israel’s interests of decentralization, containment of Turkish influence, and protection of minorities. In the Turkish arena, the Kurd issue is intertwined with efforts to deal with a hostile Hamas-supporting regime, while in Iran, the Kurds constitute a unique opposition with potential for domestic action. This paper was completed shortly before the recent events in northeastern Syria, which included aggressive military actions against Kurd autonomy by the al-Sharaa regime, which threaten the community’s very existence. These developments underscore the fragility of the arrangements in the Syrian arena and reinforce the need for an Israeli strategy vis a vis the Kurds. The English transaltion of the original Hebrew memo, is published in the midst of the war between the US & Israel and Iran. In which the Kurds, again, might play a crucial role. This paper proposes a series of actionable recommendations for a proactive Israeli policy based on diplomatic and security tools and on soft-power civilian, academic, and cultural tools, grounded in an understanding that the question is not whether Israel will be forced to take a stand on the Kurdish issue, but how it should do so in an informed, strategic manner. Read here
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Kurds, Regional Politics, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and 2026 Iran War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Kurdistan
360. IMEC 2.0: A New Regional Vision After the Gaza War
- Author:
- Gedaliah Afterman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was launched as a transport and connectivity initiative linking India, the Gulf, and Europe. That logic remains relevant, but the post-Gaza regional environment demands a broader and more resilient design. Political constraints have tightened, Israel’s room for manoeuvre has narrowed, and regional cooperation is increasingly shaped by risk management rather than visibility. In this context, IMEC cannot function effectively as a linear corridor alone. This paper argues for reframing IMEC as a networked regional architecture, IMEC 2.0, that integrates physical infrastructure with digital systems, energy transition, economic stabilisation, and diplomatic coordination. This approach reflects current regional realities more accurately, allows cooperation to advance unevenly and in sequence, and reduces political exposure without stalling momentum. For Israel, IMEC 2.0 offers a way to re-anchor itself in the region through practical contribution leading to political normalisation. The paper assesses the post-Gaza regional landscape, maps the constraints and opportunities facing Israel, and outlines how a networked IMEC can support regional integration, stabilisation, and long-term economic resilience. It argues that the central risk for Israel is not only exclusion by design, but marginalisation through delay. Early positioning, including credible action on the Palestinian front within emerging regional architectures, will determine whether Israel helps shape the systems that define regional connectivity or is forced to adapt to them later.
- Topic:
- 2023 Gaza War, India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), Diplomacy, and Connectivity
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, India, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
361. From the Global Friction and Intra-‘West’ Fracture, Through the Multi-front (Gaza) War to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
- Author:
- Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes how the October 7 attack and the ensuing multi-front and Gaza war reshaped the region within the broader context of global power competition, inducing intra-Western fractures. While the war strengthened Israel’s regional military position and weakened Iran and its proxies, it simultaneously eroded Israel’s legitimacy in much of the West. Yet it also generated an East–West divide in Europe between states viewing Israel more as a security asset and those treating it as a normative liability. Despite intensified polarization across Western societies, the Global South, and the Middle East, international support for the two-state solution has not declined. On the contrary, it has consolidated into a broad Euro-Arab diplomatic alignment that frames the two-state formula as the only acceptable resolution framework. Ultimately, the interaction between global friction, regional war, and domestic polarization reinforces—not weakens—the international consensus around two states as the sole viable pathway forward. The paper shows that the war produced a paradox: military developments shifted the regional balance toward Israel and the US, yet political dynamics increased pressure for conflict resolution.
- Topic:
- Polarization, Palestinians, Regional Politics, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
362. Cross-Border Power Connectivity
- Author:
- Bar Rapaport
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This report examines the advancement of electricity interconnections between Israel and both neighboring and more distant countries. It argues that such connectivity would make a significant contribution to Israel’s energy security and could serve as a powerful tool for Israel’s integration into the Middle East and for fostering regional stability. The report discusses the advantages and challenges of cross-border electricity interconnections, drawing on international experience, and then examines trends in electricity connectivity in Israel and across Middle Eastern countries. It proposes concrete steps to be incorporated into Israeli policy to advance the issue and lays the groundwork for a long-term vision of a regional Middle Eastern electricity grid. The report recommends linking political and energy rationales: beginning with the creation of backup connections to Jordan and Egypt-specifically as a lever for Israel’s planned connection to Europe via Cyprus-continuing with the development of regional institutional infrastructure, and embedding the energy vision as part of a broader regional reconstruction process. Involving the Palestinians could encourage Middle Eastern countries to connect with Israel, incentivize state-level investment, and support the development of an independent Palestinian electricity sector, while reducing the burden on Israel’s electricity system.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Infrastructure, Borders, Connectivity, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, and Cyprus
363. Transforming Towards Regional Sustainability: A Framework Based on Sustainability Transitions and Nexus Thinking
- Author:
- Nathan Marom
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The twenty-first century confronts humanity with an unprecedented constellation of interrelated challenges and crises – environmental, economic, social, political, technological – that together demand far-reaching transformations in our modes of living, our societies and governance systems, and our ecological impacts on the planet. Because these multiple crises are interconnected across countries and continents, sectors and scales – recently described through the notion of “polycrisis” – our responses must be interconnected as well. Addressing them requires “nexus thinking”, recognizing the multiple interdependencies, trade-offs, and synergies across energy, water, and food systems, climate and ecological changes, socio-economic settings, and geo-political conflicts. It also demands “transformation thinking”, the capacity to reimagine and redesign systems so they transition from their current crisis trajectories toward sustainability and peace. Together, these two approaches form the foundation for the Nexus Transformations framework explored in this paper. This paper develops a new conceptual framework of Nexus Transformations to support regional sustainability and peacebuilding efforts. It hopes to make several contributions to how sustainability is perceived within the fields of security and peace studies and adjacent policy fields. At the same time, the paper will be of interest to a wide range of stakeholders concerned with the fundamental question of our age: how to contribute to transforming existing conflictual and detrimental systems into more stable and sustainable systems conducive to peaceful conditions – in our region and beyond. First, the paper introduces two of the most prominent approaches in the academic study of sustainability and in the fields of environmental and climate policy: namely, Sustainability Transitions (ST) and Nexus approaches. It offers a brief and accessible introduction to the main concepts and themes of these two approaches – intended to researchers in security and peace studies, as well as to policymakers and practitioners working in post-conflict reconstruction or in sustainable development more broadly. Second, the paper offers a conceptual yet practical synthesis of the Sustainability Transitions and Nexus approaches. Despite common concerns and potential synergies, these two influential approaches have, by and large, been addressed separately in the academic and policy literature. However, there are good reasons for combining them in different policy domains and in real world applications. We could think of their complementary qualities in a simple and practical way: The Nexus approach is concerned with the interrelations between systems that require integration and transformation. It focuses on what to transform, and offers technical, infrastructural, and spatial insights. However, it lacks a theory of systemic change and a detailed understanding of institutional and social-economic dynamics shaping these systems. Sustainability Transitions offers such a theory of systemic change. It focuses on how to transform, and adds important organizational, institutional, social-economic, and temporal insights. But, so far, it mostly lacks the powerful interrelational outlook of the nexus that connects these distinct socio-technical systems in real places. To bridge this gap, the paper introduces an integrated framework of Nexus Transformations as a systematic way to address these interrelated questions of how to transform and what to transform. Third, the Nexus Transformations framework offers an expanded and holistic articulation of nexus approaches, interconnecting the FEW nexus of food, energy, and water systems, critical at the urban scale, with the MORE nexus of regional mobility, economic, and ecological systems, and with the PLENTY nexus of security, prosperity, and peace within planetary boundaries. Nexus Transformations thus frames seemingly local and site-specific sustainable development challenges, including post-conflict reconstruction, as multi-level and multi-scale opportunities for systemic transformation. To apply the Nexus Transformations framework and further specify the FEW-MORE-PLENTY path, the paper outlines a series of stages, considerations, and guiding questions. This is proposed as a roadmap to guide policy makers and practitioners in planning, shaping, and catalyzing multi-level sustainable transformations. In this way, the Nexus Transformations framework can be applied across diverse domains and scales of sustainable development, from integrated infrastructure, urban, and regional development, through post-conflict reconstruction, to the governance of transitions for living within planetary boundaries. While the paper remains at a conceptual level, it connects to several recent Mitvim initiatives, including policy papers on a humanitarian strategy for Gaza and post-war reconstruction of the Gaza Region. It wishes to push further the definition and the ambition of reconstruction – as a profound systemic transformation towards sustainability and peace. This is relevant not just for Gaza, but across the Middle East and the planet at large. The hope, therefore, is that this paper, together with its predecessors, could open a set of discussions with partners across the region and globally, who are committed to the principles of transforming holistically from conflict and climate emergency towards sustainability and peace.
- Topic:
- Peace, Sustainability, Green Transition, 2023 Gaza War, and Climate Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
364. Is there still a Path for an International Security Force in Gaza
- Author:
- Jacob Stoil
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The US twenty-point peace plan that marked the end of Gaza War created an opportunity to break the political stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and advance major moves. Yet, progress on some of the most critical areas of security and stability is proceeding slowly. There has been some progress like the return of all the hostages, alive and dead, and the establishment of the National Committee for Administration of Gaza (NCAG), and the partial opening of Rafah crossing with the return of an EU assistance mission. However, in today’s reality, absent a concerted effort, the chance for a broader, more immediate and meaningful change in Gaza that could lead to a broader diplomatic initiative is gradually receding. As a result, the danger is that the “yellow line” will become the new border and that the situation in Gaza where the IDF controls over fifty percent of the Strip while Hamas continues to rule over the majority of the Gazan population, will continue. This would leave the population dependent on basic humanitarian aid and exploited by a reconstituting Hamas looking forward to another war while Israel attempts a return to a strategy of conflict management. At the center of the UN resolution was the creation of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza whose role it was to oversee the disarmament and demilitarization of the territory and create the security environment to allow for reconstruction and an alternative Palestinian Government. Such a force would need to be both robust and capable with a mandate to disarm and demilitarize the territory, protect reconstruction and governance efforts, and in possession of the authorities to complete the mission against any opposition. At this point, it looks increasingly less likely the ISF, if it deploys, will resemble this ideal, and in the meantime, Hamas is entrenching its power, repositioning it capabilities, and rearming. This begs the question as to whether there is still a way for an ISF and therefore the Twenty Point Peace Plan to succeed. While all hope may not be lost without a robust ISF, the path to success will be narrow and rely instead upon an indirect approach.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Security, Reconstruction, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
365. Reconstruction as a Lever for Political Change: How reconstruction tools can strengthen Palestinian governance in Gaza and serve as a positive model for the West Bank
- Author:
- Noa Shusterman Dvir
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The reconstruction process of the Gaza Strip, whose cost is estimated at approximately $70 billion, is not limited to a purely humanitarian response but constitutes a strategic decision point for building a governing alternative to Hamas, which may reshape the entire Palestinian arena. At the center of this move stands the technocratic committee (NCAG), operating under the authority of the “Board of Peace” defined in the 20-Point Plan and approved by UN Security Council Resolution 2803, whose purpose is to stabilize governance in Gaza while creating a horizon for a future transfer of authority to a reformed Palestinian Authority and connecting the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the committee’s potential success may positively affect the entire Palestinian arena and regional dynamics, at the geopolitical level the committee is expected to face a range of challenges, including: • Tension with the Palestinian Authority, which is in a “strategic trap” – the committee’s success may highlight Ramallah’s lack of relevance, while its failure will prevent the Authority’s future return to Gaza; • Israeli control over crossings and the security space (the “yellow line”) creates territorial ambiguity that complicates the establishment of independent Palestinian sovereignty and delays the flow of international resources; • Hamas will seek to replicate the “Hezbollah model,” in which it maintains its military strength under the cover of civilian calm. The reconstruction process should serve as a tool to weaken Hamas’s power centers by creating economic and diplomatic dependence of the population on the West and Gulf states, while attempting to transform Gaza from a “resistance enclave” that threatens Israel into a functioning political entity integrated into the vision of regional stability. This document analyzes the expected scenarios in the Gaza Strip and the anticipated challenges for the technocratic committee’s activity and proposes principles for action and concrete and immediate recommendations for the technocratic committee and the international community.
- Topic:
- Governance, Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Post-Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
366. Gaza Reconstruction: Risks, Opportunities, and Israel’s Role
- Author:
- Arnon Houri-Yafin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- As part of the Trump administration’s “20-Point Plan,” the international community is preparing for a large-scale reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. For Israel, this process presents a multidimensional strategic opportunity: pushing Hamas out of power in favor of more moderate forces, promoting processes of moderation within the population, and deepening Israel’s integration into the regional axis (with the backing of the United States and Gulf states). Even if a moderate alternative to Hamas does not emerge, successful reconstruction could serve as a temporary incentive for stability in the Strip. At the same time, the process carries a significant risk: the diversion of reconstruction resources toward Hamas’s renewed military buildup. To realize the opportunity while mitigating the risk, Israel must employ a diverse toolbox that includes monitoring, the threat of halting reconstruction, and partnership. Monitoring prevents rearmament; the threat of halting aid provides internal Gazan legitimacy for excluding Hamas; and partnership serves as a driver of moderation. While each of these tools is critical, their combination creates internal tensions. This paper focuses on the early years and recommends emphasizing different tools across different sectors. In the construction sector, which involves large volumes of resources that may be diverted to Hamas, the paper recommends a strict version of monitoring policy. In sectors traditionally managed by civil society organizations, such as education, it recommends partnership. After several years – particularly if a moderate government gains public legitimacy in Gaza – the focus can shift toward trust-building and partnership within state institutions as part of a broader political process.
- Topic:
- Reconstruction, Institutions, Post-Conflict, Trust-building, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
367. The Role of Israeli and Palestinian Civil Society in the Reconstruction of Gaza
- Author:
- Suheil Diab
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The reconstruction of Gaza is an extremely complex task. The extensive and profound destruction requires a comprehensive, long-term reconstruction effort that demands significant resources and partnership among the local community, Israel, regional states, and the international community. Bold policy decisions are required to link the reconstruction process with an Israeli–Palestinian and regional peace process, thereby providing a sustainable framework for reconstruction. Cooperation between political leadership and the business sector is necessary to restore economic life in Gaza and the surrounding region. Significant involvement of Israeli, Palestinian, and global civil society is also essential. Civil society is a critical component for the success – and under current conditions, even the initiation – of a sustainable reconstruction effort. It fills gaps left by political processes when political considerations lead to suboptimal decisions. It also compensates for limitations in the business sector when profit motives prevent necessary investments or divert resources inefficiently. Civil society fills a moral gap as well, and possesses substantial resources and assets to do so. This document focuses on the roles of Israeli and Palestinian civil society (in Gaza and the West Bank) at the present moment, in promoting the necessary transition from war to reconstruction within the framework of an Israeli-Palestinian-regional peace process. It outlines the characteristics of the civil society arena, guiding principles for action in the immediate and medium term, and proposes several concrete steps forward.
- Topic:
- Reconstruction, Post-Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
368. Normalization Through Strength? A Dual Israeli–Saudi Examination of Power, Perception, and the Limits of Military-Centric
- Author:
- Eitan Ishai
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the concept of “normalization through strength” through a dual Israeli-Saudi lens, arguing that military power alone cannot generate sustainable regional integration. Tracing the rise of this framework within Israeli strategic thinking – especially after the Abraham Accords and following October 7 – the paper shows how Israeli leaders and much of the public came to believe that demonstrations of force could substitute for diplomacy and political compromise. Juxtaposing this with the Saudi perspective, which prioritizes stability, predictability, territorial integrity, and political legitimacy, the paper demonstrates how the same Israeli actions interpreted domestically as deterrence were perceived in Riyadh as destabilizing and risky. Focusing on the Israeli-Saudi case, it argues that “normalization through strength” failed not because Israel lacked power, but because power was decoupled from restraint, diplomacy, and credible political horizons – most notably regarding the Palestinian issue. The paper concludes that future normalization depends less on raw strength than on reliability: the ability to embed military capability within a coherent diplomatic strategy grounded in restraint, accountability, and regional stability.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
369. Financing Sustainable Reconstruction of Gaza
- Author:
- Hafez Ghanem and Liel Maghen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that the reconstruction of Gaza will depend not only on the amount of funding mobilized, but on how financing is structured, governed, and anchored within a broader political context. In a setting shaped by movement restrictions and weak institutions, financial design is not neutral but shapes priorities, distributes power, and determines what can be implemented on the ground. The paper examines the key challenges that have limited the translation of financial commitments into actual projects, alongside emerging approaches that seek to address these barriers, and argues for a financial architecture that strengthens local capacity, ensures transparency, and supports long term recovery rather than reinforcing dependency and fragmentation. It contends that such an approach can only be effective if it is accompanied by a clear political horizon, including the lifting of the blockade, which will support the well-being of the local population and create the conditions to reduce risk and attract private investment.
- Topic:
- Reconstruction, Investment, Sustainability, Post-Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza
370. Community Involvement as the Foundation of Post-Conflict Gaza Reconstruction
- Author:
- Liel Maghen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that the reconstruction of Gaza cannot succeed without Palestinian agency, rights, and meaningful participation. Drawing on comparative experience and field based insights, it shows how externally driven models tend to reproduce dependency and fragility rather than support long term recovery. It emphasizes the need to anchor reconstruction at the neighborhood level, develop participatory planning mechanisms, and address housing, land, and governance issues early in the process. It also highlights the importance of linking humanitarian action with political frameworks and rethinking transitional spaces as foundations for community life. Ultimately, reconstruction is not only about rebuilding infrastructure, but about restoring the social and institutional fabric of society. Its success will depend on whether Gazans are able to shape their own recovery from the outset.
- Topic:
- Governance, Reconstruction, Recovery, Post-Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
371. Europe’s Digital Markets Act Under Review: Ways to Make it More Pragmatic, Proportional, and Predictable
- Author:
- Andrea Dugo, Fredrik Erixon, and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The Digital Markets Act (DMA) marked a major shift in EU competition and regulatory policy, moving from an effects-based and ex-post approach to a prescriptive, ex-ante regulatory framework. While the DMA rested on some clear observations about competition in platforms markets, the Act also came with some conceptual ambiguities and structural flaws. They could have been addressed in the implementation and enforcement of the DMA but, unfortunately, these processes have exacerbated rather than moderated the problems. In this Policy Brief, we argue that there is now a new opportunity to improve enforcement practices and make the DMA more pragmatic, proportional, and predictable. The central argument is that there is a growing gap between the DMA’s stated goals, its enforcement, and real-world effects. While some targeted interventions in the DMA implementation improved competition and specific user experiences somewhat, it is difficult to find any evidence supporting the proposition that the DMA has meaningfully reshaped competitive dynamics in digital markets. However, business compliance costs have increased significantly – and, importantly, not just for so-called gatekeepers. DMA enforcement is now also generating tensions with other EU regulatory frameworks, particularly in the areas of data protection, cybersecurity, intellectual property rights, and consumer protection. A key concern is that enforcement has gradually expanded the DMA beyond its original scope. Enforcement actions and regulatory discussions now seem to extend into areas such as cloud computing and generative AI, often without clear evidence that these sectors exhibit the same structural competition problems that motivated the DMA. Perhaps the expansion is motivated, perhaps it is not. It is difficult to make a judgement when the European Commission do not present material evidence supporting their enforcement actions. The risk is that expansion weakens the coherence and legitimacy of the framework in the absence of transparent analysis and robust evidentiary standards. DMA enforcement also presents structural challenges. Its reliance on predefined obligations and broad legal concepts – such as “gatekeeper” status or “interoperability” – grants significant discretion to regulators while limiting the role of effects-based analysis. In practice, this has led to increasing regulatory uncertainty and, increasingly, a shift from regulating conduct to influencing product design, pricing structures, and platform architecture. Enforcement dynamics further complicate the picture. Parallel investigations by national authorities, combined with overlapping EU legal frameworks, have created a layered system of governance in which the same conduct may be assessed under multiple regimes. This risks duplication, inconsistent outcomes, and fragmentation of the Single Market – precisely the outcomes that the DMA was intended to prevent. The enforcement of interoperability obligations illustrates these tensions particularly clearly. Originally conceived as a tool to lower entry barriers, interoperability is increasingly applied as a prescriptive design requirement, often without sufficient regard for differences across platforms or for legitimate concerns related to privacy and security. In some cases, these obligations may even weaken existing competitive dynamics, while introducing new technical and regulatory risks. More broadly, the DMA increasingly reflects a shift in EU regulatory philosophy, from prohibiting harmful conduct to prescribing how digital systems should operate. When combined with other prescriptive regimes, this approach creates unavoidable trade-offs between competition, security, and privacy objectives. This Policy Brief argues that better enforcement approaches could improve the DMA’s chances of achieving its objectives. Enhancing enforcement approaches require a recalibration of methods and instruments towards greater predictability, better proportionality, and more evidence-based decision-making. To this end, five key recommendations are proposed: Clarify the DMA’s core objectives to prevent enforcement drift. Strengthen evidentiary standards for enforcement actions. Apply interoperability obligations in a proportionate and context-sensitive manner. Improve coordination with adjacent regulatory frameworks. Ensure that any enforcement expansion is grounded in clear competition-based evidence. In sum, for the DMA to improve competition and user experience – and not damage them and Europe’s security and digital capabilities – it needs better enforcement and alignment with the original purpose of supporting competitive, innovative, and user-oriented digital markets.
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, Institutions, Artificial Intelligence, Data, Digital Policy, Emerging Technology, Digital Markets Act (DMA), and Single Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
372. Europe’s Frontier Countries: The EU’s Geopolitical Test
- Author:
- Tengiz Pkhaladze
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Europe’s European neighbours have become the arena in which the European Union’s geopolitical credibility is being tested in real time. From Ukraine and Moldova to the Western Balkans, Belarus and the wider Black Sea region, developments along the EU’s immediate periphery now shape Europe’s own security environment more directly than at any point since the end of the Cold War. These frontier countries are no longer a buffer or a preparatory space for gradual integration; they are the place where power is contested, deterrence is measured, and Europe’s ability to act under pressure is exposed. This policy brief argues that the EU enters this geopolitical test with a widening gap between ambition and readiness. Over the past two years, Brussels has adopted an increasingly geopolitical vocabulary and launched a series of important initiatives from the White Paper on European Defence and the Readiness 2030 agenda to ReArm Europe, military mobility efforts, a new Black Sea strategy, and the European Political Community (EPC) initiative. Taken together, these steps acknowledge that Europe faces a harsher strategic environment. Yet they have not resolved the core problem: the EU still struggles to convert political declarations, financial resources and regulatory power into timely, coherent geopolitical action. Institutional fragmentation, slow decision-making and unresolved dependencies continue to limit Europe’s ability to shape outcomes in its own neighbourhood. The EU’s European neighbours function in this paper not as case studies, but as stress-tests. They reveal how the EU performs when confronted with fast-moving crises, security risks and external competition. Military mobility offers the most tangible example: despite repeated reports and funding commitments, cross-border movement of forces and equipment remains constrained by legal, infrastructural and political obstacles that are incompatible with Europe’s security rhetoric. Similarly, the Black Sea strategy signals growing awareness of regional importance, yet avoids hard choices about deterrence, escalation management and the division of labour between the EU and NATO. These internal challenges are now compounded by an external shock. The United States’ evolving strategic priorities underline that European assumptions about transatlantic leadership and alignment can no longer be taken for granted. This does not signal a US withdrawal from Europe, but it does expose how dependent the EU remains on external actors for security outcomes in regions it defines as vital to its own stability. The central conclusion of this brief is deliberately uncomfortable: Europe’s frontier countries are not testing the EU’s intentions, but its capacity to act as a geopolitical actor. The question facing the Union is no longer whether it wants to be more strategic, but whether it is willing to address the political, institutional and practical constraints that prevent it from doing so. If the EU cannot adapt its posture in the regions closest to it, its broader ambitions from strategic autonomy to global influence will remain aspirational.
- Topic:
- Security, Globalization, Governance, European Union, Institutions, Trade, and Single Market
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, and Western Balkans
373. Reigniting Productivity: A New Growth Model for the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The Asia-Pacific region is reaching the limits of the scale-based and China-driven growth model, as manufacturing specialisation and global value-chain integration now deliver diminishing returns. Data regressions (and testing over 120 socio-economic variables) show productivity drivers have inverted: Exports correlate negatively with productivity, while imports – especially services – provide the strongest productivity gains, showing that openness to innovation and services remains the key lever for economic growth. Moreover, connectivity dividends are exhausted. Productivity does not depend on more internet users, but on the uptake of business technology, such as cloud, AI, and enterprise software. Also, inward FDI (i.e., investments by foreign multinationals) expands the local availability of support services essential for organisational efficiency that also becomes available to domestic SMEs. However, these productivity contributions remain uneven due to regulatory fragmentation and country-specific compliance costs. Taken together, many businesses in the region, and SMEs in particular, face technological and organisational capability constraints rather than just infrastructure gaps (i.e., access to roads, ports, or broadband). The Asia-Pacific region needs a capability-driven growth model, enabled by investment diversification, services integration, and reducing the fixed costs of technology adoption that hinder SME growth. These remedies are distinct from those prescribed for Europe in the Draghi report, which emphasise scale, reindustrialisation, and state investments. Recommended actions are: Re-anchor openness by liberalising and deregulating business and digital services, advancing mutual recognition via plurilateral services and investment arrangements. Mobilise capital for technology adoption through FDIs, easing borrowing mandates for IT and software, and treating digital capability as a factor of production. Reduce regulatory uncertainty by maintaining stable legal regimes, enabling modular voluntary (“opt-in”) frameworks for data and cloud services firms, g., regionally recognised certification schemes for personal data, trusted cloud, and AI developer designations, with deeper convergence across APEC, CPTPP, and ASEAN. Unlock SME scaling by reforming corporate taxation that encourages formalisation of the grey economy, simplifying cross-border rules, and ensuring access to computational infrastructure such as cloud and AI tools. In the long term, exploit demographic asymmetries in the region via skills-based migration, higher-age worker retention, and expanding female labour-force participation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Regulation, Economic Growth, Industry, Productivity, and Micro-Small-Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific
374. Rethinking Europe’s Space Strategy for the 21st Century: From Legacy Champions to the New Space Economy
- Author:
- Andrea Dugo and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Europe stands at a critical juncture in the evolution of the global space economy. Once a technological leader with deep capabilities across the space value chain, the EU now risks structural marginalisation as the sector shifts from a state-led model (“Old Space”), driven by geopolitical competition, to a commercially driven, innovation-intensive paradigm (“New Space”). This transformation is characterised by declining launch costs, large-scale satellite constellations, and the integration of space infrastructure with advanced digital technologies. Against this backdrop, we argue that Europe’s relative decline is not incidental but rooted in three mutually reinforcing structural challenges: a persistent capital markets gap, insufficient and fragmented public investment, and an industrial policy framework that continues to favour legacy incumbents over emerging high-growth firms. The US has led this transition through deliberate policy choices that fostered competition and enabled private firms to scale. China is increasingly following a similar path, combining strong state direction with growing commercial dynamism. Europe, by contrast, has struggled to adapt its institutional and industrial frameworks to this new reality. Empirical evidence reveals a widening gap between Europe and its global competitors. Across key indicators, Europe consistently underperforms relative to the US and China: Launch capability remains limited and volatile. In 2025, the US recorded 181 orbital launches, while China conducted 92, compared to just 8 in the EU, following a collapse to only 3 launches annually in 2023 and 2024. Satellite deployment has grown only incrementally. The EU increased deployments from 16 satellites in 2015 to 135 in 2025, while China added 371 satellites and US actors, driven largely by SpaceX, deployed over 3,700 satellites in 2025. Innovation capacity has also declined. The EU’s global share of space-related patents fell from around 11 per cent in 2000 to about 6 per cent in 2023, while China surged to over 70 per cent – driven by high patenting volumes, though concerns about average quality persist – and the US declined to roughly 12 per cent. Drawing on evidence from our ECIPE Space Economy Database, the paper identifies three core challenges underpinning Europe’s declining space competitiveness.
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, Economy, Institutions, Aerospace, and Single Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
375. From Digital Tax Symbolism to Meaningful Reform: Europe’s Substantial VAT Gap as a Source of Untapped Fiscal Capacity
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Europe does not suffer from a lack of tax instruments – it suffers from too many. Over the past decade, new layers of corporate, digital, and global tax rules have been added to an already complex system, often delivering limited revenues while increasing legal uncertainty, compliance costs, and economic distortions. We argue that stronger industrial competitiveness and sustainable public finances will not be achieved through new digital taxes or unilateral corporate tax initiatives, but by strengthening existing tax bases and improving the efficiency, simplicity and predictability of current frameworks. The multilateral approach has delivered some tangible progress, notably by enhancing transparency through country-by-country reporting, even if the full effects of its implementation are still unfolding. That said, further OECD initiatives should be rejected if they risk adding additional layers of complexity without enhancing global coherence or legal certainty. Alongside international coordination, the most promising path lies in domestic tax reform. Governments should prioritise simplification, transparency and the strengthening of broad-based consumption taxes, particularly VAT, which remain the backbone of European public finances. Well-designed domestic reforms can strengthen fiscal resilience, enhance industrial competitiveness by reducing economic distortions and compliance burdens, and enable countries to secure first-mover advantages in an increasingly competitive global environment.
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, Tax Systems, Institutions, and Single Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
376. From Factories to Ideas: The New Map of Global Power
- Author:
- Erik van der Marel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Globalisation is not collapsing but transforming. Rather than retreating, global economic integration is shifting from a system organised around physical goods and factories to one increasingly driven by intangible assets such as data, services, intellectual property, and knowledge-intensive collaboration. Intangible flows are reshaping how integration occurs. Unlike goods trade, these flows are largely weightless, collaborative, scale at near-zero marginal cost, and are far less constrained by physical distance, weakening the traditional link between geography and economic exchange. Distance has been redefined from geographic to geopolitical. In the intangible economy, cross-border exchange depends less on how far countries are apart and more on political trust, security alignment, and institutional compatibility, including shared norms around governance, data, and the rule of law. Economic power is reorganising around “idea blocs.” Because intangible assets are harder to protect than goods, firms and investors increasingly concentrate collaboration among politically aligned countries with strong institutions, producing new groupings that surpass geography and reshape global alliances. This shift demands a new framework for understanding globalisation. Existing models cantered on supply chains and production networks cannot explain current patterns of integration, power, and cooperation; globalisation must instead be understood through the political economy of intangibles, institutions, and trust.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Services, Innovation, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
377. Audiovisual Services: A Neglected Area of EU Competitiveness
- Author:
- Hannes Berggren
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Audiovisual services are a fast-growing part of EU services trade and constitute an area of EU competitiveness. Between 2006 and 2023, EU exports in audiovisual services rose by 271 per cent, making the EU one of the world’s largest exporters in the field. Unlike other digitally delivered services such as telecommunications or computer services, audiovisual services remain largely excluded from trade liberalisation at both multilateral and bilateral levels. Rooted in cultural protection policies and the EU’s Audiovisual Media Services Directive, the exclusion of a big category of trade limits market access for EU firms and weakens the EU’s hand in trade negotiations. Recent measures, such as Canada’s levy on foreign streaming services, is a “canary in the coal mine”: if the EU continues to carve out audiovisual services from trade agreements, other countries may take similar actions against EU economic interests. To boost its growing digital competitiveness, the EU should take a more constructive approach and discard its long-standing opposition to include cultural services in trade agreements. The review in 2026 of the EU’s audiovisual regulation is an opportunity to change domestic policy, enabling Europe to make trade commitments in audiovisual services. A more liberal approach would strengthen the EU’s position in digital trade and expand market opportunities for EU companies.
- Topic:
- European Union, Services, Trade, Industry, Digital Policy, Economic Competition, and Audiovisual Services
- Political Geography:
- Europe
378. The Economic Burden of the Revised Product Liability Directive on EU and Non-EU Countries
- Author:
- Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Any manufacturer or innovator – whether headquartered in Munich, San Francisco, Zurich, or Mumbai – that places a product on the European market will soon face a spike in liability risk under the revised EU Product Liability Directive (PLD). Introduced as a consumer protection measure, the economic consequences of the Directive for enterprises, citizens, and the broader EU economy have been systematically underestimated. This study demonstrates that by fundamentally overhauling the regulatory landscape of the EU Single Market, the revised PLD imposes a dual economic burden: it acts as a structural drag on European economic output, while simultaneously raising new trade barriers that negatively impact non-EU countries. The threat to innovators and manufacturers is imminent: the PLD is currently being implemented across EU member states, before the December 2026 deadline.
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, Economy, Institutions, Liability, and Single Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
379. The WhatsApp World Order: Learning to Live with the New Global Political Economy
- Author:
- David Henig
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- An inter-connectivity and technology revolution transformed the world over the last 30 years – with AI being the latest instalment. Multiple, interlocking, instant networks now cover the world like an ever-expanding changing set of WhatsApp groups, affecting all countries and governments. Today’s trade is responsive, resilient, diverse, and above all global as a result. Modern globalisation has in turn proved resistant to the many claims of its demise. Yet clearly this is not creating a happy world. Politics has not kept pace with the changes. National control, stability, optimism and trust are as a result particularly in short supply. At a macro level, challenger economies – most notably China – are engaged in mutual suspicion with the former hegemons EU and US, not helped by issues around subsidies and access to markets. All the major powers are undermining existing global rules while simultaneously suggesting an impossible retreat into self-sufficient manufacturing as they seek to come to terms with today’s economy. They are not helped by political debate that largely misunderstands the moment. Meanwhile corporate concentration in global markets has entrenched dominant private actors who navigate diverse regulations but can undermine competitiveness and governments. Political turmoil is enhanced by demographic shifts to ageing populations, social media, and citizen dislocation in the face of intense societal change and financial insecurity. Government failure to deal with challenges they are wrongly assumed to have created is too often simply leading to a search for scapegoats. Matters may even get worse given that the major powers have weaponised trade to a degree in recent years. Many urge them to intensify planning for economic warfare. This is turning dependencies from an inevitable by-product of greater product availability to a dangerous weakness. Such approaches threaten peace and prosperity, reflecting frustration that public demand for control in an inter-connected world cannot be met. Better approaches need to be found, that start with accepting today’s technology-enabled world including a strong China and other emerging economies. Governments must recognise that adaptive institutions will be more effective than trying to second-guess complex supply chains or put in place extensive new national rule-sets, particularly given their diverse public policy objectives. They must then protect where they must, prioritise where they can including for national security, and guide the public through their choices based on the best information that they have. For Europe in particular, long-standing respect for and implementation of rules that balance societal interests is more important than protecting all old industries. Internationally, agreements among friendly countries can be helpful but will not be sufficient. What is required is all countries accepting and enhancing core trade principles which were specifically designed to prevent a 1930s style global descent into mutual suspicion. WTO rules should be modernised to reflect today’s inter-dependencies and the dangers of weaponisation, rebalancing commitments on the basis of a broad definition of reciprocity, and avoiding of concentration of supply when countries grow. This though can only happen satisfactorily when the largest powers understand the need to discipline their own behaviours. Challenges such as dealing with dominant companies and scarce raw materials will never be easily resolved. Improvements will require international cooperation similarly based on trust, and should draw upon global networks of expertise that have developed as another result of today’s inter-connected world. Economies do adjust to new circumstances. Governments must therefore stop decrying resilience as an easy but incorrect way to be seen doing something, and focus instead on rebuilding economies and societies that adjust to today’s emerging inter-connected global order.
- Topic:
- Globalization, European Union, Trade, Artificial Intelligence, and Connectivity
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
380. The Copyright Trap
- Author:
- Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The current debate on EU copyright law and AI training must move beyond the creative sector to include the wider European economy. While the rights of creators are legitimate and must be protected, the rules governing data use for AI models have far-reaching economic consequences. At its core, this is a debate about Europe’s economic competitiveness and its ability to reverse the technological stagnation identified in the Draghi report. The EU’s current approach to AI is marked by a profound policy paradox that helps explain why its private AI sector is lagging behind the US and China. While the EU invests billions of euros in public funds to build world-class supercomputing and AI-related infrastructure, its restrictive digital regulations constrain the data needed for its private AI economy to flourish. These regulatory restrictions deprive European start-ups of essential inputs such as data, undermining the development and deployment of AI in the EU. EU policymakers must carefully weigh the economic trade-offs of making copyright law more restrictive. The European creative industries are undeniably significant, generating €202 billion in value added. However, the combined value added of the rest of the economy is far larger. To offset just a 1 per cent reduction in value added across data-intensive sectors such as ICT, financial services, automotive, pharmaceuticals and chemicals the creative industries would need to increase output by more than 9 per cent. The EU cannot subsidise its way out of a self-imposed data scarcity problem. Instead, policymakers should preserve the current copyright framework as a genuine asset for AI development and work towards making data an abundant economic resource. Such an approach would not only support a thriving domestic AI economy capable of developing the models that will power and transform Europe’s industrial and service sectors, but also contribute to achieving the strategic autonomy sought by EU policymakers. This brief sets out six targeted policy recommendations to achieve these objectives: Treat the Text and Data Mining (TDM) exception as a strategic asset: the EU should recognise the TDM exception as central to its technological competitiveness and strategic autonomy. Policymakers should subject any proposals that would narrow this exception to a mandatory economic impact assessment. Contain the opt-out mechanism: expanding it risks rendering the TDM framework unworkable. The EU should resist broadening the categories of content subject to opt-out and maintain the requirement for affirmative, machine-readable reservations of rights. Stabilise the legal framework: to reduce regulatory uncertainty, the EU should avoid further legislative changes to the TDM framework. The EU’s digital rulebook is already undergoing significant change. Recently adopted digital regulations should be allowed to reach operational maturity before new compliance obligations are introduced, and efforts to simplify EU digital rules should be implemented before any changes to EU copyright law are considered. Exercise caution on top-down licensing: policymakers should reject statutory mandatory licensing regimes for AI training data, which disproportionately harm start-ups. The EU should allow private markets to develop licensing solutions, intervening only where clear market failures emerge. Reframe the policy problem: the debate surrounding generative AI is fundamentally about market competition and economic displacement, rather than copyright infringement. Policy responses should therefore focus on market adaptation rather than expanding copyright protection. Learn from innovation-first jurisdictions: the EU should draw lessons from countries such as Singapore and Japan which implement broad, technologically neutral exceptions for computational data analysis and actively attract AI investment by treating data as a vital economic endowment.
- Topic:
- Intellectual Property/Copyright, European Union, Economy, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Europe
381. The Rise of Collective Actions and the Risk to Portugal’s Economy
- Author:
- Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, Portugal has systematically transformed its economy, moving away from traditional sectors to build a tech-intensive knowledge economy. This deliberate strategy relies on regulatory stability and predictability to attract high-value Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). However, a fundamental tension has now emerged that threatens this progress: Portugal has rapidly become a highly attractive jurisdiction for collective actions. This report examines how the country’s emergence as a major European hub for mass litigation fundamentally contradicts its economic ambitions and jeopardises its digital transition. This surge in mass litigation is facilitated by a unique, claimant-friendly procedural framework that currently ranks as the second most open regime in the EU. As a result, Portugal has experienced one of the fastest growth rates in case volume across Europe. For a ‘catch-up innovator’ that is still building its technological resilience, this rapid expansion of legal risk is particularly dangerous, as it directly deters the foreign capital required to sustain its economic trajectory. This permissive legal environment could be significantly amplified. The revised EU Product Liability Directive (PLD) acts as a powerful multiplier within Portugal’s expanding litigation ecosystem. By explicitly bringing software, digital services, and AI systems under the scope of strict liability and lowering evidentiary barriers, the PLD concentrates new, highly unpredictable legal risks squarely on the digital economy. The empirical analysis in this report quantifies the scale and direction of this threat, revealing four critical findings: Sectoral Targeting: Mass litigation in Portugal is not evenly distributed; it disproportionately hits the strategic sectors that are the engines of the country’s growth. Between 2018 and 2025, the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector faced the highest volume of collective actions (29 per cent of all cases), followed closely by manufacturing (26 per cent). This litigation directly targets the primary providers of FDI in Portugal. Impact on GDP: The aggregate cost of private enforcement through collective actions could impose a heavy drag on national output. Scenario analysis estimates that the absolute economic impact of this litigation burden could reach between EUR 640 million and EUR 1.93 billion, representing up to 0.63 per cent of Portugal’s GDP. Impact on Innovation: Excessive litigation distorts and depresses research and development. The chilling effect on innovation is highly quantifiable: the projected decline in market capitalisation for Portugal’s top R&D investors, resulting from heightened litigation risk, is estimated at between EUR 63 million and EUR 188 million. The Decoupling from Harm: The surge in litigation is a supply-side phenomenon driven by financial incentives, rather than a demand-side response to product malfunction. The data shows a clear decoupling from actual consumer harm, evidenced by consistently low product-safety alerts and consumer confidence levels that remain above the EU average. As a ‘catch-up innovator’, Portugal remains highly sensitive to regulatory shocks. The fear of aggressive mass litigation could act as a significant deterrent to the foreign capital required to sustain its economic trajectory. This unpredictable liability environment risks unravelling Portugal’s digital transition and chilling future investment. The careful implementation of the PLD – which must be designed to avoid acting as an amplifier for collective actions – is an imperative for Portugal’s continued economic development and competitiveness.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Knowledge Economy, and Mass Litigation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Portugal
382. Consumer Protection in the Age of AI: Transposing the New EU Product Liability Directive in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland
- Author:
- Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Renata Zilli
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) are transforming Europe’s economy. The legal frameworks designed to govern them are catching up – perhaps too hastily. The EU’s revised Product Liability Directive (PLD) provides a good example of the tension between the speed of technological progress and the need for norms that balance the rights and obligations of users and producers of these technologies. The PLD seeks to modernise product liability rules by recognising that software, AI systems and connected devices are now integral to everyday products and services. For the first time, digital manufacturing files, algorithms and software fall within the scope of strict liability, meaning that producers can be held responsible for harm caused by defects in code or data as much as by flaws in hardware. While well-intentioned, the Directive risks imposing heavy economic costs, particularly in countries whose competitiveness depends on digital innovation. Expanding liability may discourage companies from experimenting or launching new products as even routine design improvements could be construed as evidence of past defects. Faced with greater legal uncertainty, firms are likely to divert resources from research and development into compliance documentation, testing and risk management in order to minimise litigation exposure. For Denmark, Finland and Sweden – among the world’s most digitalised and research-intensive economies – the stakes are high. Scenario analysis suggests that if the PLD were to encourage mass litigation and if this reached even a fraction of United States levels, the combined market value of their most innovative firms could fall by between €2 billion and €7 billion, equivalent to several years of public R&D spending. Technology-intensive sectors such as ICT and life sciences would bear the brunt of this impact, with potential knock-on effects for GDP and employment across the Nordic economies. The new PLD continues a broader EU trend of favouring private regulatory enforcement through the courts, rather than the traditional model of public oversight that has been the preferred model in Europe, and especially in the Nordics. This shift marks a departure from the Nordic region’s tried and tested approach where public regulators and other public authorities, including Ombudsmen, resolve disputes efficiently and at low cost. If transposed without regard for this well-established model, the PLD could erode not only innovation-driven growth in the Nordic countries but also the foundations of their existing consumer protection systems. Nordic policymakers should shape the PLD to fit their own systems, ensuring that national implementation preserves the strengths of their regulatory traditions. This study outlines the following recommendations: Transpose the PLD with caution. Nordic governments should implement the Directive in line with existing procedural frameworks and avoid a simple copy-and-paste of the directive. Seek Interpretive Guidance from the European Commission. PLD’s regulatory complexity runs contrary to the EU’s goals of simplification and economic competitiveness. Nordic governments should lead a joint initiative to request formal interpretive guidance from the Commission. Such guidance is essential to ensure a consistent and harmonised application of the Directive across the Single Market, clarify ambiguous terms, prevent unintended consequences, and protect against litigation abuses. Clarify the application of new legal principles. Legislators should specify how and when courts are to apply the new presumptions brought in by PLD and establish clear and rigorous standards for disclosure of evidence based on existing rules. The presumptions introduced in the PLD should be integrated carefully within the laws in the Nordic countries and interpreted narrowly, in keeping with the EU’s intent that there should be no reversal of the burden of proof. Clarify liability boundaries for digital and AI technologies. National guidance and sector-specific standards should define how liability applies to software, AI systems, and connected devices, especially where responsibility is shared across supply chains or evolves through updates. Preserve proportionality and retain the development-risk defence. The development risk clause should be maintained to prevent liability for defects that could not have been detected with existing scientific and technical knowledge at the time of production. Ensure coherence across the regulatory landscape. The PLD’s implementation should align with existing frameworks on data protection, cybersecurity, and digital services to avoid duplication, legal uncertainty, and conflicting enforcement. Maintain the Ombudsman-centred model for consumer redress. The Nordic tradition of public oversight and accessible dispute resolution should remain the primary mechanism for enforcement, with litigation reserved only for systemic failures. This approach has long safeguarded both consumer trust and innovation at a fraction of the cost of mass litigation seen in other countries.
- Topic:
- European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Technologies, and Product Liability Directive
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Finland, Denmark, and Sweden
383. Boosting Competitiveness: 10 Actions for Deeper and Better Capital Markets in EU Member States
- Author:
- Fredrik Erixon, Ismail Abdi, Andrea Dugo, Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Deeper, richer, and more sophisticated capital markets are central for boosting Europe’s competitiveness and prosperity. High-performing capital markets supply all types of firms – big and small – with multiple and varied opportunities to fund themselves and their growth at all stages of development. If Europe develops policies encouraging more savings to be invested in equities, bonds and securities there will be more funding available for EU companies. Importantly, such a development would also improve opportunities for companies to seek funding that is better tailored for their development and growth prospects. As pointed out in Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness, better capital-market policies are a key priority for boosting European economic performance. A good capital market is an ecology based on many different investment institutions and that is supported by a general business environment that allows businesses to grow and thrive, making them attractive for investment. Consequently, improving European capital markets requires many different types of reforms that make it easier to save, invest, innovate and build businesses in Europe. While the EU can advance such an agenda, it is critically important that reform efforts focus on national governments. The heavy lifting to improve capital markets in Europe will have to be done by national governments. Many governments have already made reforms that have improved outcomes, and other EU countries can learn profoundly from these experiences. The European Union is now changing approach. It has recently launched a new strategy for a Savings and Investment Union (SIU) that will succeed the Capital Markets Union (CMU). New initiatives have already been tabled. This is an opportunity to reflect on past achievements and shortcomings, and to advance new policies and targets that forcefully can drive capital market development across the EU. The fault lines of capital markets in Europe are known. While European households have a high savings rate, large parts of these savings are invested in real estate or in low-yielding assets that are distant from corporate funding markets. Generally, the market is too dominated by banks, which limits the diversity and resilience of funding sources and leaves firms – especially SMEs – more vulnerable to credit cycles and banking sector stress. What is less known is that there is huge variability between EU Member States – both in capital market performance and policy. In fact, some EU countries like Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands have high-performing capital markets that are distinctly different from other EU markets. Obviously, high-performing countries have pursued national capital-market policies that are better suited to achieve the common objectives. While EU-level legislation has so far delivered limited results, national reforms hold considerable untapped potential. If all Member States were able to converge towards the standards and effectiveness of the most dynamic markets, the cumulative effect could transform the EU’s financial landscape – broadening access to capital, increasing cross-border investment, and strengthening the overall resilience and competitiveness of the European economy. In the new SIU, the EU should promote national capital-market development and leverage the experience of high-performing European countries. While there are remaining cases for removal of barriers within the EU and a move towards a single market for capital, the reality is that many past harmonisation efforts have failed to move policy or performance much. New strategies are needed – and there are big payoffs if national governments start to progress capital-market reforms that are necessary and that have proven remarkably successful in other EU Member States. In this report, we are proposing 10 actions for deeper and better capital markets in the EU. They are all tailored to affect national improvements. We propose a new SIU Scoreboard of seven specific action targets – some are outcome-oriented but most of them reflect policy areas that should be reformed. They include new policies on pensions, investment funds, and public markets – and combine ambitions to raise the volume of capital invested in capital markets with targets for improving access to niche funding, not least for small and high-growth companies. Three actions are about EU institutions and the process going forward. We propose a functional role for the SIU – and complement it with a distinct role for the European Semester in national capital-market development, including annual country-specific recommendations. We also propose conditioning access to certain EU funds on capital-market reform.
- Topic:
- European Union, Institutions, Economic Competition, Capital Markets, and Single Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
384. Time is Money: The Cost of Delaying the Ratification of the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, and Elena Sisto
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Between 2021 and 2025, the EU sacrificed €183bn in exports and €291bn in gross domestic product due to its failure to ratify the EU-Mercosur Agreement. These figures represent the net present value of economic activity that would have materialised had the agreement been implemented as originally scheduled in 2021. This accumulated nominal GDP loss, which reflects not only foregone exports but also unrealised gains from improved access to inputs and diversified supply chains, corresponds to approximately 1.6 per cent of the EU’s total economic output and is equivalent to roughly two years of nominal European economic growth at the rates observed in 2023 and 2024. Should ratification continue to be deferred through 2026, the cumulative toll will continue to grow. Total foregone exports would reach €216bn, while lost GDP would climb to €344bn. To place this in perspective, the cumulative export loss would exceed the total annual trade of goods between the EU and Switzerland, the EU’s fourth-largest trading partner. Every additional month of delay during 2026 amounts to €4.4bn in foregone GDP and €3bn in missing exports. The economic burden of delay is concentrated in economic sectors where the EU maintains a competitive advantage. Transport equipment faces the most severe impact, with a shortfall of €94bn in exports over the six-year delay scenario. Machinery and equipment constitute the second-largest loss category at €23.8bn, followed by chemicals at €21.2bn, iron and steel and agri-food at €12.6bn each, and pharmaceuticals at €11.5bn. These sectors are precisely those that drive European economic dynamism. Pharmaceuticals and chemicals rank among the top five manufacturing sectors for labour productivity, while transport equipment and machinery sit in the top ten. For transport equipment, chemicals, and iron and steel, the six-year delay represents lost sales equivalent to more than two years of each sector’s annual research and development budget. The services sector has also experienced substantial forgone gains, with a five-year delay translating into €3bn in lost service exports, concentrated in trade and logistics (€1.9bn), communications (€0.6bn), and financial services (€0.4bn). The costs of delayed ratification fall across every EU member state. Germany has had the largest absolute loss at €71bn, equivalent to 1.7 per cent of GDP, incurred during a period when the economy contracted. France experienced €38bn in foregone exports (approximately one year of nominal economic growth), while Italy lost €29bn (roughly 1.6 years of growth). Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Portugal, and Austria also had substantial absolute losses. While smaller, export-oriented economies have lower absolute losses, their relative exposure is significant: Portugal, Hungary, Belgium, Finland, and Sweden experienced losses exceeding 1 per cent of national GDP. The cost of delaying the EU-Mercosur Agreement goes beyond sale losses. Faced with policy uncertainty, European firms are diverting capital and establishing supply chains that will not return to Mercosur, surrendering market share to China and eroding Europe’s influence in the region. Crucially, the delay is also detrimental to strengthening the EU’s economic resilience. By delaying the ratification of the agreement, the EU is losing preferential access to Mercosur’s vast critical raw materials. Ultimately, Europe’s hesitation prolongs its dependence on Chinese supply chains for these essential inputs. The opportunity cost of continued delay substantially exceeds any remaining policy concerns. The political framing of delay as a cost-free option that allows for additional deliberation is inaccurate and counterproductive. The costs of postponement are real, measurable, and growing. For European policymakers, the imperative is clear: ratifying the EU-Mercosur Agreement is not merely a trade policy decision but an essential step toward strengthening Europe’s economic growth, competitiveness, and economic resilience.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Institutions, Trade, Mercosur, and Single Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
385. Cloud Resilience and Security: Why Exit, Portability, and Lifecycle Design Matter
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The future of computing points to cloud services remaining deeply embedded across sectors. As cloud technologies converge with edge networks and connected devices, resilience and security are no longer secondary technical issues but central policy concerns. This paper shows that resilience is strengthened not by isolation or localisation mandates, but by preserving architectural choice, interoperability, and competitive multi-cloud options across the lifecycle. Many of the decisive factors that affect resilience occur at onboarding – how a cloud provider, tools, licences, and security controls are selected and integrated – and whether workloads and safeguards can in practice be reconfigured, substituted, or exited during disruption. Across business, standards, cybersecurity, and competition communities, resilience is understood as a structural property of architecture, governance, and contractual control. The key test is whether organisations retain credible choices at every stage of the cloud journey, from migration to multi-cloud to exit. Concentration becomes a risk only when portability and switching are restricted in practice. The analysis shows that ending restrictive licensing and contractual practices are the most effective policy lever for strengthening resilience. Licensing determines what can be deployed at onboarding and whether workloads can be duplicated, migrated, or recovered under stress. Restrictions on licence mobility, discriminatory pricing, licensing practices that require re-purchase upon migration or dual-running, and limits on redundancy transform scale into dependency on a single cloud vendor. By contrast, prescriptive technical regulation to try and address cloud reliability carries higher risk. Cloud architectures and security ecosystems are complex and evolve rapidly, and even specialist engineers rarely have full visibility across dependency chains. Software equivalence should become a functional requirement, ensuring comparable performance, security, and service levels across cloud environments, rather than a requirement to use the same architecture or interfaces. In practice, this means that cloud and software vendors should not offer degraded functionality, security updates, or support conditions when their products run on third-party clouds compared to their own infrastructure. Mandating technical designs or standardised interfaces, by contrast, risks reducing architectural diversity and increasing correlated failure risks. Resilience is therefore best supported through proportionate, technology-neutral policy focused on preserving lifecycle multi-cloud choice rather than redesigning infrastructure. Competition also has a constructive role when it targets practices that restrict lifecycle choice rather than focusing narrowly on market shares. Enforcement against discriminatory licensing, tying practices, and artificial switching barriers aligns competition objectives with operational resilience and critical infrastructure protection. The Digital Markets Act (DMA) could contribute positively where it removes contractual barriers to switching and choice and interoperability. By contrast, applying platform-style technical obligations indiscriminately to cloud services risks weakening specialised environments, narrowing security tool choice, and reducing practical exit options. The paper also cautions against equating resilience with technological or geographic sovereignty. Empirical evidence shows that even services marketed as “sovereign” typically rely on globally integrated cloud components. Resilience is strengthened not by isolation or localisation mandates, but by preserving architectural choice, interoperability, and competitive multi-cloud options across the lifecycle.
- Topic:
- European Union, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
- Political Geography:
- Europe
386. More Than Just Chips: What Europe Can Learn from Taiwan’s Industrial Strategy
- Author:
- Andrea Dugo and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Taiwan is widely regarded as the global epicentre of semiconductor manufacturing. The island accounts for well over half of all global chip foundry manufacturing and nearly all of advanced chip output. At the heart of this system stands the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which alone contributes 8.9 per cent of national GDP and dominates the world’s leading-edge logic foundry market. Yet framing Taiwan’s economic success as a TSMC story risks oversimplifying both its growth model and the policy lessons it offers. Taiwan’s competitiveness is best understood not as the product of semiconductors alone, but as the outcome of a broader industrial ecosystem. Taiwan had already reached advanced-economy income levels in the late 1990s, when chips still accounted for only a modest share of national output. Importantly, growth remains broad-based, with substantial contributions still coming from the wider industrial economy. The semiconductor sector’s decisive contribution has not been to “create” Taiwan’s prosperity, but to accelerate its transformation into a technological frontrunner. Counterfactual estimates suggest that without chips, Taiwan would remain a high-income economy – but it would lose much of its current convergence momentum with the world’s innovation leaders. Taiwan’s economic model is defined by its intense focus on innovation. The island ranks third globally in R&D expenditure as a share of GDP, with roughly 4 per cent of output devoted to R&D. Crucially, around 86 per cent of this spending is performed by firms rather than the public sector, ensuring that innovation remains closely tied to production capability and market demand. R&D investment is heavily weighted towards experimental development, which turns research into final prototypes and commercial products. Even excluding chips, Taiwan’s business R&D intensity would remain higher than that of 19 of the EU’s 27 Member States. This success has been engineered through deliberate, long-term statecraft that evolved from “state-led creation” to “state-enabled upgrading.” In earlier decades, institutions such as the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) helped Taiwan acquire and adapt foreign technologies, train engineers, and build pre-commercial capabilities. But Taiwan avoided locking itself into permanent state ownership and subsidy dependence: firms incubated in public settings were progressively spun off and pushed towards market validation, including the creation of global champions such as TSMC. From the 1990s onwards, Taiwan’s industrial strategy increasingly prioritised horizontal support measures rather than heavy-handed state intervention. The Taiwanese model consolidated around five reinforcing policy levers: (1) a state role focused on enabling private R&D rather than substituting for it; (2) sustained investment in human capital; (3) science park clustering; (4) deep integration into global trade and value chains; and (5) diversification and spillovers into adjacent high-tech sectors. For European policymakers, Taiwan’s experience suggests that subsidies alone do not constitute an industrial strategy. Instead, the central lesson is ecosystem-building: policies that connect research to scaling, talent to industrial capability, and innovation to globally competitive production. Ultimately, Taiwan offers a model of how public policy can shape innovation capacity and competitiveness without displacing private-sector dynamism.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, European Union, Manufacturing, Semiconductors, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Taiwan, and Asia
387. Emerging Challenges and Opportu-Nities in Humanitarian Assistance in Mozambique: A Case Study from Cabo Delgados
- Author:
- Fátima Chimarizeni Papelo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to analyze the emerging challenges and opportuni-ties derived from the humanitarian assistance actions applied in Cabo Del-gado in the context of violent extremism that has been ravaging the province since 2017. This topic is relevant because the traditional concept of huma-nitarian assistance presupposes support for victims of a disaster caused by nature or man-made, and the province of Cabo Delgado presents a growing demand for humanitarian assistance due to the ongoing prolonged violent conflict. In Cabo Delgado, there are victims of a violent, unconventional, low-intensity conflict. More than 1 million people are in need of humanita-rian assistance, of which more than 50% are women and children (OCHA 2021). Along with terrorism, climate disasters, such as Cyclone Keneth in 2019, and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which began affecting Mozambique in 2020, are exacerbating the state of vulnerability of humanitarian victims. Combined, these events force non-state humanitarian actors to operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty, insecurity, and unpredictability. Nevertheless, these humanitarian actors may operate beyond what is defined by traditional humanitarian principles, which concern saving lives and allevia-ting the suffering of humanitarian victims, including developmental actions that may result in the reduction of state power in the humanitarian space and that lead to the implementation of political action by external forces. If prolonged, this scenario may accentuate the weakening of state power. Given this context, one wonders what challenges and opportunities are derived from the humanitarian support process in Cabo Delgado. This paper seeks to reflect on the emerging challenges and oppor-tunities arising from the humanitarian assistance process in Cabo Delgado. Specifically, it sought to a) define what humanitarian assistance is; b) analyze the emerging challenges for humanitarian actors in Cabo Delgado; and c) analyze the emerging opportunities for humanitarian actors within the pro-cess of humanitarian assistance in the region. We started from the hypothesis that the problem of the humanitarian assistance process in the context of violent extremism creates emerging challenges and opportunities for non--state humanitarian actors that are linked to human security, management, and coordination of humanitarian actions.
- Topic:
- Security, Violent Extremism, Armed Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgados
388. Situation Analysis of the Chissano Government: Domestic Transitions and Economic Pragmatism in Mozam-Bique (1986–2004)
- Author:
- Ercilio Neves Brandao Langa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes the political situation of Mozambique during Chissano’s Government between 1986 and 2005, as well as the internal and external factors that contributed to the fulfillment or unfulfillment of the government’s objectives. Political, economic, and historical events are observed in order to evaluate the Chissano Government. Situation analysis is a plural methodology that allows interpreting events, facts, and causes, as well as describing the behavior of the actors involved, the correlations of force, and the internal and external interests that influence the course of politics. Another aspect that justifies using this tool is the historical time involved – 18 years between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century – characterized by transformations, transitions, and dis-tinct domestic, regional, and international political-economic changes. The situation analysis proved to be an effective tool to reach a broader and deeper perspective of the Chissano Government and the national and international context in which it developed. This methodology requires historical knowle-dge of the object of study, its context and political dynamics, the organization of local society, its behavior patterns and social values, as well as its politi-cal groups, their objectives, and interests. The text constitutes a subjective perspective, a point of view on the “Chissano era”, a political, economic, and social period in the history of Mozambique. It is an ex-post-facto analysis, as it is written decades after the events have occurred, and although it limits its scope to a short period of time, it nonetheless covers long and complex socio-economic transformations. Despite systemic changes in Mozambican society, the structure of the country’s politics has remained almost the same, led by the party-state.
- Topic:
- History, Economy, Domestic Politics, and Pragmatism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
389. The Evolution of Un Peace Operations from a Human Security Perspective: The Dilemma in the Issue of Western Sahara
- Author:
- Guilherme Moreira Dias, José Maria Sydow de Barros, and Túlio Pires Barboza
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- The question of Western Sahara, “Africa’s last colony”, is quite pecu-liar in the context of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, when compared to other ongoing missions, and it is also quite unique from a geo-political point of view since the international community differs regarding this territory (Barros 2020).In this context, this article seeks to address the following issue: why didn’t the evolution of UN peace operations, which occurred after the expan-sion of the international security agenda and the emergence of the concept of human security, provide any significant change in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO)? We will consider the hypothesis that, although there is a consensus at the international level on the importance of the concept of human security, there has been no significant change in MINURSO’s mandate, such as the incorporation of new assign-ments, due to Morocco’s close relationship with some permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), namely France and the United States.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Human Security
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Western Sahara
390. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective
- Author:
- Yoslán Silverio González
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
391. Asia’s Growing Global Influence: A Study of India’s Africa Policy
- Author:
- Hamdy A. Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- The 21st century could become an Asian and African century, which will result in a radical global transformation of the world. Thus, the past decade has witnessed a large Asian presence in Africa, especially, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Not surprisingly that the rise of Asia in global politics has worried the traditional Western powers. Analyzing contemporary Asian approaches to Africa should be performed through their historical contexts, in particular the history of competition and rivalry between Asian rising powers. It is no secret that this point has not been adequately addres-sed in previous studies on African-Asian relations (Iwata 2019). This state of rivalry is reflected in the African policies of major Asian countries. For example, the Sino-Indian conflict and the Sino-Japanese conflict, in addition to the Taiwan issue, have definitely affected these countries’ interactions with Africa. In contrast to European policies towards Africa after the founding of the European Union, there is no consensus framework for Asian international relations. The experience of struggle against colonialism and engagement in the Non-Aligned Movement represented the most prominent components of the mutual relations between Asia and Africa, especially since the Ban-dung Conference in 1955 (Adem 2017). When the Cold War ended, Asian countries began to achieve high and rapid rates of economic development. Hence, the Asian countries that previously received development aid have become among the most important international donors. This means that the concept of “donor powers” has undergone a major change that it is not limited to Western industrialized countries (including Japan). Perhaps all of this requires studying and analyzing Asian-African relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Global South, Donors, and Foreign Influence
- Political Geography:
- Africa and India
392. Monitoring Report | Public consultation in Albania: The illusion of inclusion
- Author:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Abstract:
- The Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM) has released a new report: Public Consultation in Albania: The Illusion of Inclusion. This report presents the results of an in-depth monitoring of 50 laws, public policies, and strategic documents consulted by the central government during the years 2022-2023. The assessment covers 10 key government institutions, evaluating their public consultation processes in terms of: Transparency and accessibility of consultation documents; Effectiveness of the public consultation process; Public accountability during this process; Citizen participation in consultations; Ensuring inclusivity and non-discrimination. In addition to the qualitative analysis of public consultation previously conducted by IDM, this assessment for the first time provides statistical data related to this important governance process. The evaluation system applied in this report provides the opportunity to compare institutions’ performance in the consultation of different acts, in relation to the aforementioned principles. Ultimately, the findings highlight a ‘’long distance’’ between transparency and participation in government consultations. The goal of this study is to contribute to evidence-based advocacy for legal reforms and the improvement of institutional practices, so that public consultations fulfill their core function – citizens’ participation and impact in decision-making.
- Topic:
- Transparency, Inclusion, Monitoring, and Civic Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Balkans, and Albania
393. Military Implications of PLA Aircraft Incursions in Taiwan’s Airspace 2024
- Author:
- Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in 2023. While the number of Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s airspace has surged, the operational capacity of the PLA Eastern Theater Command Air Force is likely already at its maximum peacetime readiness level. The sharp increase in Chinese military aircraft incursions targeting Taiwan is not solely aimed at President Ching-te Lai but also reflects changes in the scope and intensity of the PLA’s training and exercises around Taiwan. Unless new airbases are constructed or logistical support capabilities are significantly improved within the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the number of sorties into Taiwan’s airspace is unlikely to increase substantially in 2025.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Air Force, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
394. Dreams Deferred in Xi’s New Year’s Speech
- Author:
- Arran Hope
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he conceded that the “China dream” was far from being realized. Doubling down on the ideology of struggle, a hard work ethic, and enforcing nationalist sentiment as crucial factors for escaping the current malaise, Xi’s speech suggested a shortage of tangible solutions for the country’s problems.
- Topic:
- Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
395. Untangling the Transatlantic Knot: Germany, France, and the United States
- Author:
- Gesine Weber and Jacob Ross
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- France’s and Germany’s reactions to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine reveal their significantly different relationships with the United States. Their interpretations regarding the European security architecture are almost diametrically opposed. While Berlin concluded that European security must be constructed transatlantically, Paris saw confirmation of its interpretation that Europeans must be able to address security challenges independently of Washington. Donald Trump’s reelection constitutes a challenge for the two countries because both need to fundamentally rethink their respective relationships with the United States and Europe-US relations more generally. The scope of the US withdrawal from European security remains to be seen, but it will be similarly challenging for Paris and Berlin.
- Topic:
- NATO, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America
396. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat
- Author:
- Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
397. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero
- Author:
- Ignacio Garcia Bercero
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
- Topic:
- Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
398. Lift the Sanctions: The Principal Danger in Syria Today is Instability
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The most critical international security goal regarding Syria today is the country’s stabilization – and that requires immediate and substantial aid and sanction relief. The question on which recognition of the new government should most hinge is whether it can achieve sovereign authority in the country and do so without the type of human rights abuses or cross-border militancy that pose a threat to regional peace. Given the urgency of stabilizing the country, the new government provisionally meets this criteria. Should it change course and pose a threat to regional peace, the international community can adjust policy accordingly. Two outstanding challenges to sovereignty and legitimacy are the presence of foreign troops – Israeli, Turkish, and US – and the status of Kurdish areas. Especially acute is the triangular relationship among Damascus, Ankara, and Syria’s Kurdish community, which is among the issues addressed in this viewpoint. As for foreign troops: 15,000-20,000 currently occupy the country. Affirming Syrian sovereignty entails expeditiously withdrawing all those forces not explicitly invited by the new government. A related concern is the remnants of the Islamic State (ISIL) in Syria, including the 40,000+ cadre, family members, and displaced persons interned in camps run by the Kurdish authorities. Going forward, the task of managing and combating IS remnants on Syrian territory should fall to Damascus, acting together with Kurdish and foreign partners as it sees fit. The threat that IS affiliates and aspirants pose to the United States and the broader international community have been and are most effectively addressed through measure of homeland security and law enforcement. Securing the US homeland does not require the ongoing deployment of US troops in Syria, which would inadvertently undermine the legitimacy of the new government.
- Topic:
- International Security, Sanctions, Syrian War, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
399. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
400. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia
- Author:
- David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea