Publication Year: within 3 Years - CIAO Search Results

101. Humanities Matter: Symposium Proceedings

Author:: Sukrita Paul Kumar, Swati Pal, and Asani Bhaduri
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: In contemporary times, the obsession with technology and commerce has eventually led to a total dismissal of sensitivity to environmental issues, humanistic values and social justice. While each discipline of knowledge may have taken leaps in thought and theory, the sum and total of knowledge and learning have not resulted in an overall development of the human mind. Though ‘inclusivity’, divergent/innovative thought and ‘value education’ have become buzzwords in academic seminars and conferences, it is ‘skill development’ and ‘employability’ that have acquired a formidable importance in education. Some of the key attributes crucial in all professions are indeed compassion, empathy, fair-mindedness, emotional maturity, commitment and perseverance that evolve with a knowledge of psychology and even economics. All of these fall into the domain of Humanities and Social Sciences. Some fundamental questions that arise are: y What does it mean for a student of sciences, commerce or engineering and even medicine, to not have humanities in their curriculum? What does it mean to have this gap in knowledge? How can this issue be addressed? y Should we redefine our notion of ‘progress’? y Why is there so much misery and unhappiness amongst learners as well as teachers? y Do we equip ourselves adequately to deal with conflict resolutions rather than resorting to violence and aggression? y How do we work out a balance between theoretical and practical learning? y How do we make room for pauses for reflection amidst the stress of gathering degrees and certificates? As we navigate an increasingly complex world, it is essential to revisit the value of humanities and social sciences in fostering empathy, critical thinking and wellrounded individuals.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Academia, Curriculum, and Humanities
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

102. Quantum Technologies and the Geostrategic Landscape: Implications for Finance and Central Banks

Author:: Tracey Forrest, Paul Samson, S. Yash Kalash, and Michael P. A. Murphy
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Quantum technologies, and quantum computing in particular, could completely reshape the integrity of today’s financial markets. Both through risk and opportunity channels, quantum computing is changing the game and raising the stakes. Cracking today’s cryptographic standards would undermine global payment systems and digital assets, causing the potential collapse of all current encryption systems, while quantum-enabled advances in optimization and modelling may dramatically enhance economic forecasting, monetary policy and planning. “Quantum readiness” is the next necessary step for any nation wanting to both stay safe from these projected dangers and also to make the most of the potential benefits. This special report aims to provide a situational analysis of quantum technologies useful for senior G7 (and beyond) decision makers in finance and central banking. By examining the current landscape, as well as several scenarios, the authors outline key implications for strategic planning and action for consideration by policy leaders around the world. They structure their suggested priority interventions across three tiers: national, international and public-private collaboration, with actionable recommendations across each level.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Banking, Financial Governance, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

103. Intellectual Property Amid Trade Tensions

Author:: Jeremy de Beer
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Intellectual property (IP) is a key asset in the modern economy, and just like any asset, it’s influencing trade flows, investment, and economic value, especially as digital and intangible transactions grow. It’s often said that Canada is facing an IP trade deficit, but that claim is seldom documented statistically. CIGI Senior Fellow Jeremy de Beer changes that in this special report, building a stronger evidence base for IP-related trade policy. Through examining three possible scenarios for the future of IP as a trade asset (rebalancing, renegotiation and restructuring), the report identifies four strategic priorities for Canada to consider: strengthening Canada’s statistical evidence base for IP policy making; using domestic and international legal flexibilities responsibly and in coordination with allies; reclaiming policy space in trade negotiations; and recalibrating innovation and industrial policy at home.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, Economy, Trade, and Transactions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

104. Parliamentary Diplomacy and Normative Contestation after Coups d’État in West Africa

Author:: Nádia Teresa dos Santos Loureiro
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This article examines how international parliamentary organisations (IPOs) engage with situations of constitutional rupture following coups d’état in West Africa, focusing on political transitions in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea (Conakry) between 2020 and 2023. It addresses how parliamentary actors, lacking coercive authority, engage in contexts marked by military takeovers, suspended constitutional frameworks and contested political legitimacy. Drawing on a constructivist and post-Westphalian perspective, the article conceptualises parliamentary diplomacy operating through discursive practices and symbolic positioning. Empirically, the analysis examines the responses of the Pan-African Parliament (PAP) and the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) based on qualitative documentary analysis of resolutions, statements and institutional reports. The findings show that, despite significant political and structural constraints, IPOs contribute to articulating expectations of legitimate governance by problematising the marginalisation of parliaments and reaffirming representative institutions as expressions of popular sovereignty
Topic:: Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Legitimacy, Coup, and Parliamentary Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso

105. The Humanitarian Emergency Dilemma: Exploring the Consequences of Financial Cuts on Relief Efforts and At-Risk Communities

Author:: Calistus Abang
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Funding freezes are one of the challenges prominent in the humanitarian world today, with grave consequences for programs aiding people in urgent need and beyond. Using critical discourse analysis, this study looks at the paradox of the humanitarian crisis and funding freeze, drawing on secondary data. Qualitative analysis of aid funding data, including funding in need, shows how the freeze affects the disbursement of funds and their intended recipients. It becomes visibly apparent that the freeze has multifaceted effects: stripping power from the already powerless, belittling the capacities of the neglected, pausing a system that is undermined, and hastening an erosion of trust in the institution of humanitarianism. Disproportionately, the system greatly impacts the most vulnerable, which suggests it is anything but neutral. This study confronts the glaring paradox and discusses its far-reaching implications. These implications concerning research, policy, programming, and humanitarianism paradox will, in the end, save lives.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Vulnerability, and Funding Freeze
Political Geography:: Global Focus

106. Pakistan’s Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

Author:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: Pakistan’s migration story cannot be accurately understood through the simple binary of “brain drain” and “brain gain”. The evidence instead points to a more complex reality in which Pakistan continues to send large numbers of workers abroad, particularly to the labour markets of the Gulf, while also experiencing increasing outward mobility among students and highly skilled professionals. This produces a mixed set of outcomes for the country. On the one hand, migration generates substantial economic benefits through remittances and through the wider connections of the diaspora. On the other hand, it can impose serious costs in sectors where skilled workers are already in short supply and cannot be easily replaced. The central policy question, therefore, is not merely how many Pakistanis are leaving, but rather who is leaving, from which sectors, and whether Pakistan possesses the capacity to retain, replace, or later re-engage that talent. Current data indicate that highly skilled migrants still constitute a minority of total registered outflows; for this reason, claims of a universal elite exodus are often overstated. However, the increasing departure of skilled workers in critical sectors such as healthcare, together with the rise in student migration, points to genuine longterm risks to state capacity, service delivery, and the domestic return on educational investment. The causes of outward migration are largely structural in nature. Rapid labour force growth, high youth unemployment, widespread informality, inflation, poor job quality, insecurity, and terrorism all intensify the pressure to leave. Migration networks, study pathways, and household strategies supported by remittances then make emigration easier, more accessible, and more socially normalised. In this context, migration is functioning less as the product of a strong domestic opportunity structure and more as part of Pakistan’s wider model of economic survival. Remittances constitute the strongest argument in favour of “brain gain”, yet they should be treated as a conditional benefit rather than a full offset to the loss of human capital. They provide vital support to households and to the country’s foreign exchange position, but they do not automatically produce productive investment, export growth, innovation, or return migration. If dependence on remittances is poorly managed, it may deepen structural reliance and delay necessary reform. Policy should therefore avoid coercive attempts to prevent migration and should instead seek to reduce the pressures that make departure necessary in the first place. The priority ought to be to move from one-way emigration towards circular migration and genuine brain gain through the creation of better jobs at home, the upgrading of skills, the support of return and reintegration, the channelling of diaspora investment into productive sectors, and the strengthening of security and the rule of law. Success should be measured not only in terms of remittance volumes, but also by whether Pakistan improves domestic opportunity, retains key professionals, attracts returning expertise, and transforms migration from a mechanism of survival into a driver of long-term development.
Topic:: Migration, Brain Drain, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

107. Navigating Duality: The Struggle for Self-Determination of Palestine and in Postcolonial Post-Westphalian Global Order

Author:: Janees Rafiq
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The Charter of the United Nations has postulated its faith in the international community to ensure prompt and effective action; however, the UN has failed to discharge its duties towards maintaining or restoring global peace and harmony through its specific powers, including the use of humanitarian intervention. The ongoing crises in Ukraine and Palestine have highlighted the sheer apathy and ineffectiveness of international law, particularly its capacity to enforce special powers for gross human rights violations in Ukraine and Palestine. Although both Ukraine and Palestine are entitled to self-determination, the West’s response has been starkly different for each. Ukraine has received extensive support from Western states, while in the case of Palestine, the occupying state appears to benefit from Western protection, despite the International Court’s characterisation of the situation as a potential genocide against Palestinians. This disparity raises critical questions about the impartiality of international law, which theoretically holds no bias among nation-states. The research paper is based on a doctrinal study of how, in a globalised world, powerful nations' divergent responses to conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine further illustrate duplicity and inconsistency. While it remains a vital tool, it is also susceptible to political biases rooted in colonial-era legacies, particularly visible in Western states’ selective responses. Addressing this issue requires confronting the remnants of a colonial mentality that persists within the Western application of international law. The author will focus on a fundamental question: how to decolonise the application of international law to ensure equitable treatment in situations like Palestine, where the application appears markedly different from Ukraine.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Palestine

108. Pakistan's National Commission for Minorities Rights Act 2025

Author:: Zain Zaigham Khan
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: Pakistan’s Constitution provides explicit safeguards for religious minorities; however, a persistent gap remains between formal guarantees and lived realities. This implementation deficit has left non-Muslim communities vulnerable to discrimination, violence, and unequal treatment. Over time, the disconnect became politically untenable, particularly following major incidents such as the September 2013 Peshawar church bombing and the Supreme Court’s landmark June 2014 judgment, which directed the state to establish durable institutional mechanisms for minority protection. Subsequent measures, including the May 2020 executive order–based commission under the Ministry of Religious Affairs, were widely criticised as inadequate due to limited authority, weak independence, and representational deficiencies, notably the exclusion of Ahmadi representatives. By 2024–25, sustained domestic civil society advocacy and increasing external scrutiny converged around the need for a statutory framework, generating the momentum that culminated in the enactment of the Minorities Protection Act. The Act’s principal institutional innovation is the creation of a permanent, statutory National Commission for Minorities’ Rights (NCMR), mandated to operate nationwide. The NCMR is tasked with monitoring constitutional safeguards, reviewing laws and policies for discriminatory effects, receiving complaints, and conducting inquiries supported by civil court–like powers to compel information and participation. It is further expected to convert findings into reform proposals and report on minority rights conditions through formal parliamentary oversight mechanisms. Nevertheless, the Act is subject to significant structural constraints. The NCMR lacks enforcement authority, cannot initiate prosecutions, and issues recommendations that are non-binding, rendering its effectiveness contingent on political will and institutional follow-through. Key implementation risks include politicization through appointments and resource allocation, inadequate or punitive budgeting, limited investigative capacity, and insufficient provincial reach. If these risks are not addressed, the commission risks functioning primarily as a documentation body rather than as an effective instrument for minority protection in practice.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, Discrimination, Institutions, and Protection
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

109. Nature-based Solutions for a Sustainable Critical Minerals Value Chain

Author:: Lara Fornabaio, Sara Saloum, Perrine Toledano, and Kirsten Hund
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Critical minerals production is essential for a net-zero future yet mining land footprint overlaps with sensitive ecosystems: of the sector’s 101,583 square kilometers of mining concessions, 7% are in biodiversity hotspots, 8% are in protected areas, and 16% are in “wilderness” areas of high ecological integrity. The value chains of mining operations “both depend on and impact nature” (ICMM, 2024), creating a responsibility for mining actors to manage and mitigate the impacts of operations on the landscape. This responsibility includes addressing nature loss, supporting the well-being of communities, and contributing to the resilience of ecosystems. Nature-based solutions (NbS), which are based on the idea that healthy ecosystems deliver valuable services to society, offer one method of working towards these goals
Topic:: Mining, Sustainability, Value Chains, Net Zero, Critical Minerals, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

110. Law and Politics of Israel and the United States’ Attacks on Iran with Maryam Jamshidi (Episode 54)

Author:: Sahar Aziz and Maryam Jamshidi
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Join host Professor Sahar Aziz (https://www.law.rutgers.edu/bio/sa1356) in her conversation with Professor Maryam Jamshidi (https://www.colorado.edu/law/node/125...) about the political and legal implications of Israel and the United States' unprovoked military attacks against Iran on February 28, 2026. As Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu publicly admitted, the Israeli government has been preparing for a war to topple the Iranian regime for over 30 years. (https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internation...) Knowing they do not possess sufficient military capacity to do it alone, Israel unsuccessfully attempted to persuade the United States to start a war of aggression against Iran under the Bush, Obama and Biden administrations. The reasons for restraint by past US administration were often the same. Iran posed no direct threat or conducted an imminent attack toward the US that legally justified an offensive war of aggression. The risk of a global economic downfall and the exorbitant price tag of a major war far outweighed the benefits of removing a hostile government. And perhaps most importantly from a military perspective, the United States had no exit strategy. Indeed, these were the same reasons that led to the Democratic Party winning the White House in 2008 after expensive and endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after 2001. Republican politicians campaigned on an America First platform in the 2021 elections by explicitly rejecting wars of choice in the Middle East that cost American lives and treasure. And yet, Republican President Donald Trump violated that promise to his constituents and granted Israel its 30-year dream to start an offensive war on Iran despite no credible evidence of an imminent threat by Iran. The result has been predictably catastrophic for the Middle East and the global economy. The war has engulfed the Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the 20% of global supply of oil and natural gas, energy prices are skyrocketing across the world, Tehran is being bombarded daily by Israel, over 1300 Iranians have been killed thus far, and the war is costing American taxpayers $1 billion per day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Aggression, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

111. Egypt's Tahrir Youth: Leaders of a Leaderless Revolution with Rusha Latif (Episode 51)

Author:: Rusha Latif
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: In today’s episode, guest host Nermin Allam, director of Women’s and Gender Studies and associate professor of political science at Rutgers University – Newark, speaks with Rusha Latif, author of Tahrir’s Youth: Leaders of a Leaderless Revolution, to reflect on remembering and commemorating the January 25th uprising. The January 25th uprising, which led to the ousting of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011, remains one of the most consequential moments in Egypt’s modern political history. The uprising restructured political imagination, reordered lives, and briefly redefined what felt possible. Every year, January 25th asks something of us. It asks us to remember. It asks us to reckon. And it asks us to return carefully and critically to a moment that continues to unsettle our present. This episode is part of that reckoning. As we mark the anniversary of the uprising, we are joined by Rusha Latif to revisit the experiences of the young people who animated that moment and who carried its weight forward long after the chants faded and the public space closed. The conversation invites us to resist simplification and to honor the complexity of a revolutionary moment whose political afterlives still shape how we understand protest, possibility, and loss. It invites listeners to consider what it means to commemorate a revolution in a time when its promises remain unfinished. Biography Rusha Latif is an Egyptian-American researcher and writer based in the San Francisco Bay Area. Her work focuses on social movements and revolutions in the Middle East, with an emphasis on leadership, organization, and collective action across lines of class, gender, religion, and ideology. Her research has been featured on NPR, Al Jazeera, and Jadaliyya. Her book, Tahrir’s Youth: Leaders of a Leaderless Revolution is published by the AUC Press, in 2022).
Topic:: Arab Spring, Political Science, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

112. Black Power and Palestine: Transnational Countries of Color with Prof. Michael R. Fischbach (3/3/26)

Author:: Michael R. Fischbach
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Journalists and others have taken note of the many Black students, religious leaders, and others who took part in demonstrations and other forms of Palestine solidarity during the recent Gaza war. This was in fact not a new phenomenon: Black solidarity with the Palestinian people dates back decades, when Black Power figures like Malcolm X and groups like SNCC and the Black Panther Party embraced the Palestinian cause in the 1960s 1970s. This lecture examines the historical roots of Black support for the Palestinians during that tumultuous period of American history and connects it with events today.
Topic:: History, Solidarity, 2023 Gaza War, and Black Power
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

113. Critical Perspectives on Relations Between Iran, Israel and the United States (3/17/26)

Author:: Juan Cole and Mojtada Mahdavi
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Critical Perspectives on Relations Between Iran, Israel and the United States with Dr. Juan Cole, University of Michigan & Dr. Mojtada Mahdavi, University of Alberta (3/17/26) Israel and the United States' military attacks on Iran have prompted heated debates on the legality, political motives, and global economic impact of this latest war in the Middle East. Join the Rutgers Law Center for Security, Race and Rights for a critical analysis of the history, politics, and international relations between Israel, the United States and Iran by experts on Iran and the broader Middle East.
Topic:: International Relations, International Law, Armed Conflict, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

114. Hindutva in America: A Threat to Equality & Religious Pluralism (11/12/2025)

Author:: Safa Ahmed
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Hosted by the Rutgers Law chapter of the American Constitution Society (ACS) and the Center for Security, Race, and Rights (CSRR). Join us for an engaging discussion on the rise of Hindutva—a Hindu nationalist ideology—and its influence in the United States. This conversation will explore how religious nationalism manifests within diaspora communities, its impact on civil rights and pluralism, and the role of law and policy in addressing related challenges.
Topic:: Nationalism, Diaspora, Ideology, Civil Rights, Pluralism, and Hindutva
Political Geography:: India, North America, and United States of America

115. The Special Collection of the Extensive Correspondence of Chin-Tang Lo

Author:: Juliet Tierney, Allison Bernard, and Chengzhi Wang
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: February 25, 2026 — Chin-Tang Lo, professor emeritus of the Department of East Asian Languages and Literatures of University of Hawaii, donated his papers to Columbia University's C.V. Starr East Asian Library. The special collection includes about 600 letters exchanged with prominent scholars in East Asia such as Hu Shih, Chien Mu, and Masaru Aoki. As a friend of and a researcher on Lo, Juliet Tierney introduces Lo as a multifaceted scholar and a significant contributor to many fields of modern Chinese studies. Speaker: Juliet Tierney (陈艳群) was born in Changsha, Hunan province of the PRC. She graduated from Hunan Normal University majoring in Music. Since 2000 she has lived in Honolulu, Hawaii. She previously worked as a journalist for World Journal（世界日报）and is now a freelance writer. She has published two collections of essays. Discussant: Allison Bernard, MA Program Director and Lecturer in Discipline, EALAC, Columbia University Moderator: Chengzhi Wang, Chinese Studies Librarian, C.V. Starr East Asian Library, Columbia University
Topic:: Area Studies, Scholars, and Correspondence
Political Geography:: China

116. Becoming Ungovernable: Hill Peoples, Decentralized Resistance, and Buddhist Nationalism in Myanmar

Author:: David Thang Moe and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: March 4, 2026 — Drawing on firsthand experience, current research, and his forthcoming monograph "Beyond Buddhist Nationalism" (Oxford University Press), David Thang Moe argues that the regime in Myanmar tries to rule without truly governing. He examines questions of ungovernability, centralized nationalism, decentralized resistance, ethnic reconciliation, and visions of democratic nationhood. Speaker: David Thang Moe, PhD, is a Visiting Scholar at Columbia and a Research Scholar in Southeast Asian Studies at Yale, with additional affiliations at Harvard, MIT, Boston University, and the University of Connecticut. A leading Burmese scholar, he specializes in Buddhist nationalism, ethnic conflict, and decentralized resistance. He is the author of "Beyond the Academy" (2024) and the forthcoming "Beyond Buddhist Nationalism." He has delivered talks globally, met US senators to advocate for Myanmar’s democracy, and been featured in outlets including Voice of America, The Straits Times, and the Yale Journal of Politics.
Topic:: Nationalism, Governance, Buddhism, Resistance, and Hill Peoples
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

117. Paradoxes of Chinese Feminism

Author:: Yao Lin and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Yao Lin examines the paradoxical aftermaths of the Chinese #MeToo movement under party-state authoritarianism. While it profoundly transformed public discourses on sexual harassment and discrimination, the party-state’s silencing of leading activists created room for the rise of algorithm-savvy, censorship-adapted “jīnǚ (lit. radical feminist)” online opinion leaders who promulgate classist, trans-exclusive, and pro-Party-State versions of feminism. Those developments cannot be fully comprehended within dominant frameworks of intersectional analysis or affective politics, and call for a distinctly regimatic approach of analysis. Speaker: Yao Lin, Visiting Scholar, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, researches and teaches across political theory, comparative politics, philosophy, and law. He currently works on several projects, including studies on Chinese and transnational feminisms, and on diasporic resistance to authoritarianism. He received his Ph.D. from Columbia University Department of Political Science, and J.D. from Yale Law School.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Feminism, Censorship, and #MeToo
Political Geography:: China and Asia

118. Feeling Political: Art as Public Sphere in the Cross-Strait Worlds

Author:: I-Yi Hsieh and Nick Bartlett
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: February 18, 2026 - The recent boom-and-bust of art museums in China has attracted worldwide attention. Revealing the industry’s instability (rooted in entanglements with the financial sector), the wave of museum closures in the People's Republic of China indicates the changing horizon of art institutions as public spaces for political cacophony. I-Yi Hsieh's talk draws on her book "Flora and Fauna: Domestic Nature and Private Collecting in Reform Era Beijing" (2025) and the exhibition "Contested Waters" (2024–2025) to further the conversation by addressing art as public sphere in the cross-strait worlds. Hsieh introduces her book’s ethnographic lens capturing the rise of private collecting as an alternative to the diminishing public realm for political expression, while, on the other side of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese artists and art institutions increasingly showcase projects with a focus on geopolitical tensions. It is the worst of times and the best of times for political art in the cross-strait worlds.
Topic:: Politics, Arts, Museums, and Public Space
Political Geography:: China and Asia

119. Sufficiency for All - Exploring Small-Scale, Low-Tech, Pro-Poor Initiatives

Author:: John Donaldson and Nick Smith
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: February 19, 2026 — Professor John Donaldson discusses an alternative “small works” approach to poverty reduction that highlights slower, more sustainable growth and challenges dominant assumptions about scale, technology, and well-being. Speaker: John Donaldson, Associate Professor of Political Science at the School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University (SMU), researches politics, rural development and poverty reduction in China and around the world. He primarily focuses on the disconnect between economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as sustainable poverty reduction. In addition to numerous other academic and policy publications, he is the author of "Small Works: Poverty and Economic Development in Southwestern China" (Cornell University Press, 2011). Moderator: Nick Smith, Assistant Professor of Architecture and Urban Studies, Barnard College.
Topic:: Poverty, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, Well-Being, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

120. Social Policy Responses During COVID-19 in East Asia and Beyond from a Comparative Perspective

Author:: Julia Shu-Huah Wang and Qin Gao
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: January 21, 2026 — Julia Shu-Huah Wang examines how Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong responded to COVID-19 compared to other countries. Drawing on two projects, she analyzes (1) model family data from East Asia, the U.S., and Europe to trace social policy changes before, during, and after the pandemic, and (2) country-level indicators across two decades from over 140 countries using panel regression. The presentation highlights cross-national differences in the design and effectiveness of social policy responses. Speaker: Julia Shu-Huah Wang, Associate Professor, National Taiwan University Moderator: Qin Gao, Maurice V. Russell Professor of Social Policy and Social Work Practice; Acting Director of the Asian American Initiative; Associate Dean for Doctoral Education; Director of China Center for Social Policy, Columbia School of Social Work
Topic:: Social Policy, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Hong Kong

121. From Mao to Now: China's 20th-Century Global Development Finance

Author:: Austin M. Strange and (Zoe) Liu Zongyuan
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: March 25, 2026 — The nature, aims, and impacts of Chinese overseas aid and lending have attracted major policy and scholarly attention since 2000. However, the first 50 years of China's international development cooperation are often omitted from discussion. The University of Hong Kong's Austin Strange introduces a dataset on China's 20th-century development finance, including approximately 4,000 projects in over 130 countries, and shows how these data can be analyzed to enrich theoretical and empirical research on Chinese development finance in international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, Mao Zedong, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

122. The Future of China-Russia Relations

Author:: Thomas Eder and Elizabeth Wishnick
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: March 26, 2026 — What does China('s leadership) stand to gain or lose by remaining close to Russia? Thomas Eder's presentation explores energy and broader economic ties, Russia's potential role in conflicts involving China in the Indo-Pacific, and the joint promotion of (global) governance ideas. It also address the realities of China’s and Russia’s presence and cooperation in the Arctic, as well as consequences of their deeper bilateral ties for China-Europe ties and China's regional security interests in East Asia.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Energy, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

123. E-Waste as a U.S. Social Policy Challenge: Addressing Inequity, Governance Gaps, and Consumer Rights Through a Repair-Reuse-Regulate Framework

Author:: Cynthia Norgbey
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Electronic waste (e-waste) is one of the most rapidly growing waste streams in the United States, creating pressing environmental, economic, and social challenges. The United States generates over seven million tons of e-waste each year, and has a largely unregulated system, with significant amounts of e-waste burned, landfilled, or exported to countries with weaker environmental protections. The current system is fragmented and inequitable, producing pollution, depleting resources, and perpetuating environmental injustice for both domestic and overseas communities. Without a unified federal policy, structural gaps harm consumers, communities, and the environment. The United States lacks enforceable right-to-repair laws, manufacturers face inconsistent accountability for recycling and reuse, and export loopholes allow toxic e-waste to be shipped overseas with minimal transparency. In contrast, countries in the European Union are modernizing their electronics economy through comprehensive laws that establish minimum standards for repair rights, data transparency, and producer responsibility. This paper proposes a Three-Pillar Strategy for creating an equitable and circular e-waste management system in the United States.: Repair: Enhance consumer rights and equity through national right-to-repair legislation, including requirements for parts availability, diagnostic tools, and restrictions on anti-repair practices. State-level laws in Minnesota and New York provide models. Reuse: Incentivize reuse and refurbishment at the federal level by formally recognizing it as a distinct category in the waste hierarchy, building infrastructure in schools and community institutions, and collecting consistent data on secondary markets. Regulate: Enact a national Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) framework with clear standards on takeback, design-for-recycling, and export transparency. This includes updating federal regulations and aligning U.S. law with the Basel Convention. The three-pillar approach addresses socially equitable sustainability at upstream, midstream, and downstream intervention points. Using qualitative content analysis of 23 policy documents, this paper analyzes how repair, reuse, and producer responsibility instruments are distributed across U.S. federal and state governance levels, identifying structural gaps from fragmentation and contributing to scholarship on environmental governance and extended producer responsibility. Building on these findings, the paper advances a three-pillar framework: Repair, Reuse, and Regulate, that calls for a federally coordinated approach integrating national right-to-repair legislation, reuse and refurbishment infrastructure development, and a comprehensive producer responsibility system to address these governance gaps.
Topic:: Governance, Regulation, Social Policy, Waste, Electronic Waste (E-Waste), and Consumer Rights
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

124. Piloting a Preventive Mental Health Assessment Intervention for Left-Behind Families in the Philippines

Author:: Do Minh Anh, Pragya Prachi, Anne Marie Teodosio Rey, and Wu Xiao
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: The negative psychosocial impacts of parental migration on left-behind children (LBC) presents an urgent opportunity for preventive care and systemic reform. In high-migration countries such as the Philippines, LBC face heightened risks of emotional distress, attachment disruption, and poor academic performance. The substitute caregivers, often extended family members, are frequently ill-equipped to provide consistent supervision and emotional support offered by parents. Despite growing concern, programmatic gaps persist due to limited data reporting and analysis on LBC and their caregivers. This paper recommends a scalable Mental Health Assessment and Screening Tool (MHAST) for LBC and their caregivers, integrated into the existing digital infrastructure of the Philippine Department of Migrant Workers (DMW). The intervention builds on the DMW Mobile Application platform to embed mandatory caregiver arrangement and link school-aged LBC (ages 5-17) to well-being assessments administered through schools. Using two standardized screening instruments from the Child and Youth Resilience Measure Revised (CYRM-R) and the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI-22), these tools identify flags in emotional distress, psychological risks, and caregiving capacity to triage families into four tiers of need to activate interventions ranging from informational resources to referrals for specialized care. In partnership with schools, NGOs, and government agencies, this tool has the potential to operate at both service delivery and policy planning levels. It provides targeted support for LBC and caregivers while generating standardized, large-scale data on caregiving quality and child well-being. This data infrastructure strengthens evidence-based policymaking across child protection, labor migration, education, and public health domains. Its digital-first design and interagency implementation model ensure phased deployment and make the intervention replicable across various migration-affected contexts.
Topic:: Migration, Children, Mental Health, Resilience, Well-Being, and Digital Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Philippines and Southeast Asia

125. Transgressive Sexual Politics, Structural Homophobia: Wilders and Milei in the Global Populist Radical Right

Author:: Luca Ghislandi
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This article examines how sexuality operates as a strategic instrument within the ideological configurations of the Populist Radical Right (PRR) by comparing Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Javier Milei in Argentina. Both leaders appear to challenge the PRR’s traditional sexual conservatism: Wilders by portraying himself as a defender of LGBT rights and Milei by performing a libertarian, sexually transgressive persona. Yet, both ultimately reproduce structural forms of homophobia. Drawing on discourse analysis, frame analysis, and process tracing, the paper argues that these seemingly divergent stances constitute localized rearticulations of the PRR’s core triad of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. Wilders’ “civilizational liberalism” weaponizes queer rights to define Dutch identity against a racialized Muslim “Other,” enacting conditional inclusion and rendering migrant and Muslim queer subjects invisible. Milei’s “libertarian anti-statism” fuses sexual libertarianism with anti-gender politics, using anti-elitist and market-oriented rhetoric to dismantle the state infrastructures that sustain gender and sexual equality, a form of institutional subtraction. Despite opposite performances–Wilders as celibate guardian, Milei as transgressive iconoclast–both mobilize sexuality to police the boundaries of citizenship, legitimize masculine authority, and reinforce exclusionary national imaginaries. The analysis situates these cases within broader global trends in the PRR, demonstrating that contemporary far-right sexual politics no longer depend on explicit moral conservatism but instead on the modernization of homophobia: maintaining inequality through the languages of freedom, tolerance, and civilization.
Topic:: Politics, Populism, Ideology, Radical Right, and Homophobia
Political Geography:: Europe, Argentina, South America, and Netherlands

126. An Indo-Pacific Lifeline? Outcomes of Canada’s Free Trade Agreements amid North America’s Economic Pull

Author:: Tito Almeida
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Rising global protectionism has renewed Canada’s strategic imperative to diversify its trade beyond the United States, given its longstanding export dependence. While the Indo-Pacific remains central to Canada’s foreign policy and trade diversification ambitions, there remains limited consensus on whether the Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement (CKFTA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have meaningfully increased Canada’s exports to partner countries. This study addresses this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of these agreements on Canada’s exports, and identifying which types of firms have driven these outcomes. Using a panel dataset of bilateral goods exports from 2010 to 2024 and estimating two-way fixed effects and difference-in-differences regressions, the article examines the short-term effects of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) implementation, while controlling for macroeconomic and institutional conditions in partner economies. Although statistically insignificant, this study found that Canada’s exports to high-income Indo-Pacific partners rose modestly after FTA entry, with SMEs recording the strongest gains. In contrast, it estimates Canada’s exports to middle-income partners declined across all categories of firms. With Canada aiming to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade, this article suggests that future studies on free trade agreements should continue to investigate partner countries’ levels of industrialization and the role of firms as drivers of export growth.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Exports, Protectionism, and Free Trade Agreements
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and Indo-Pacific

127. Sovereignty in Exile: Deterritorialized Statehood and Adaptive Governance for Climate-Displaced Pacific Island Nations

Author:: Valerie Chua
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: For millennia, Pacific Island communities have thrived in profound interdependence with their natural environment, relying on the ocean and ecosystems for sustenance, cultural identity, and economic vitality. Today, climate change disrupts this delicate balance. Rising sea levels and extreme weather events accelerate ecosystem degradation and undermine the physical and economic sustainability of ancestral homelands. As land becomes uninhabitable, communities face mass displacement, forced to leave their homes—and even their countries—in search of safety. Because international statehood remains predicated on land possession, this loss of territory threatens to erase the legal standing, sovereign rights, and collective cultural identity of Pacific Island communities. This article advocates for the international recognition of deterritorialized statehood—a model in which nations retain their legal sovereignty, international recognition, and cultural-political identity without basing their legal claims on territorial possession. This model offers a pragmatic path forward for Pacific Island nations by addressing the realities of climate-induced displacement without compromising the sovereign self-determination of its people. To achieve this vision, the international community must work alongside Pacific Island governments to implement three key policy transformations: (1) legal reforms to secure sovereign recognition post-territorial loss, (2) institutional reforms to govern dispersed populations, and (3) community preparedness initiatives to ensure cultural continuity and political participation across diasporas.
Topic:: Climate Change, Sovereignty, Governance, Exile, and Climate Governance
Political Geography:: Pacific Islands

128. Resisting Digital Colonialism and Protecting Subaltern Agency in Africa

Author:: Sylvia Ayesu
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: As African states accelerate digital transformation, they do so within a global political economy of data, artificial intelligence, and surveillance technologies dominated by foreign corporations and external regulatory norms. This article examines how contemporary forms of digital colonialism, characterized by asymmetrical data extraction, technological dependency, and externally imposed governance frameworks, constrain political autonomy and reproduce historical patterns of domination. Moving beyond narratives of victimhood, the article foregrounds subaltern agency by analyzing how African governments and civil society actors actively resist, negotiate, and reconfigure these power relations. Focusing on three illustrative cases in Kenya—the implementation of the Data Protection Act, the diffusion of Chinese-built smart city projects, and the rise of civil society-led data justice movements—the article analyzes how power asymmetries are negotiated within contemporary digital governance. It argues that prevailing global Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data governance frameworks inadequately incorporate African political priorities, thereby reproducing dependency rather than enabling sovereignty. It concludes by proposing policy pathways to strengthen African digital self-determination, including regulatory capacity enhancement, safeguarding transparency in technology procurement, and promoting civic oversight.
Topic:: Political Economy, Science and Technology, Transparency, Self-Determination, Extractivism, Agency, and Digital Colonialism
Political Geography:: Africa

129. A Tight Spot: Challenges Facing the Russian Oil Sector Through 2035

Author:: Sergey Vakulenko
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have soared into triple digits, a state of affairs which will make life easier for Russia’s state finances and oil industry. The duration of this unexpected crisis is, of course, unknowable as of this writing, but the reversal of fortune has also brought to the fore several lingering questions about the outlook for the Russian oil sector that are all too often overlooked. Russian oil production grew steadily in the wake of the post-Soviet trough from 1996 until 2016, when it joined forces with other leading oil producing countries and created an arrangement that is now known as OPEC+. Production levels following the creation of OPEC+ have not followed a simple linear path, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other headwinds facing the global economy.1 Russia tracked its quota reasonably closely, except for 2022, when it had troubles placing its volumes in the market, while rearranging its export flows from Europe to Asia as a result of the European embargo imposed for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Notably, Russian production has been declining since late 2025, and the gap between quota and actual output has widened. This has happened against a backdrop of extremely low official prices for Russian crude, which had been approaching the lows of past crisis years: 2009 ($41.27/bbl in January), 2016 ($40.20 annual average), and 2020 ($40.17 annual average). Is the production decline linked to the fact that a significant proportion of Russian fields have become uneconomic at $40/bbl? In other words, has Russia’s upstream breakeven threshold been reached under economic conditions caused by the war in Ukraine, and if so, where exactly is this threshold? And what are the long-term prospects for Russian oil production under these circumstances? It is worth noting upfront that the production decline in December 2025 through January 2026 was almost certainly driven by exceptional circumstances rather than a deep systemic crisis. In all likelihood, the production dip was caused by the shutdown of Lukoil’s cluster of offshore fields in the Caspian Sea following Ukrainian drone strikes on three production platforms. Taken together, these three platforms accounted for more than 200,000 barrels per day: a figure that broadly matches the observed production shortfall. Nevertheless, the questions that this decline has prompted are worth exploring. In the near term, the abrupt rise of oil prices caused by the Iran war, some of which might persist after the end of hostilities, will bring a windfall both to the Russian oil companies and the state. Some of the windfall might translate into increased drilling expenditure and an associated production spike. But it would not change the long-term outlook and fundamentals of the Russian oil industry. The focus of this paper, therefore, is on the factors shaping the long-term trends, including: the oil revenue split between the Russian state and Russian oil companies; the cost of oil production in Russia, both operating costs and the cost of sustaining production levels; and the technical capabilities of Russia’s oil industry relative to its global peers. Both the current state and possible future trajectories of the Russian oil industry are path-dependent. Therefore, this paper will also examine the circumstances that shaped it. The central conclusion is that Russian oil production will soon begin to decline—slowly but steadily—and that this decline will be relatively insensitive to oil prices, which are likely to decrease as the world transitions to a low-carbon energy system. Russian output is remarkably resilient to significant price reductions; the country has the geological resources, technology, equipment, and expertise to sustain or even increase production. But the decline is driven by state policy, the investment climate, and OPEC+ constraints.
Topic:: Economics, Oil, Governance, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

130. Are Long-Term NATO–South Korea Defense Ties Possible? Transitioning From an Arms Exporter to a Trusted Defense Partner

Author:: Chung Min Lee
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: This study focuses on how the Republic of Korea (ROK), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Europe are forging closer defense and security ties and whether such a partnership can be sustained into the future. South Korea has demonstrated that it is capable of exporting and investing in European and NATO security; according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), South Korea supplied 6.5 percent of arms imports to European NATO states (NATO-Europe) in 2024, a similar level to France.1 Conversely, Europe accounted for about 10 percent of South Korea’s arms imports in the period 2020–2024 while the United States dominated with 86 percent of all arms sales to South Korea.2 Based on SIPRI data, South Korea ranked tenth in global arms sales at the end of 2024.3 The main challenge for South Korea rests on rethinking its longer-term approach to strengthening defense ties with NATO along three main pathways: Ensuring greater interoperability with NATO weapons systems by deepening its alignment with the NATO Standardization Agreement through various measures such as the Mutual Recognition for Military Airworthiness (July 2024) agreement and becoming a member of NATO’s Science & Technology Organization (March 2025) and vice versa, so that European systems can be readily adapted into Korean weapons platforms; Encouraging Korean defense firms to operate in Europe with European governments, militaries, and corporate partners to localize production in Europe, similar to the strong foothold Korean defense firms have established in Poland since 2022; and Integrating, to the extent possible, with NATO’s intelligence architecture, including enhanced cybersecurity and cyber defenses; greater intelligence sharing over emerging battle management environments (particularly after the Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end in the foreseeable future); and greater institutionalization of intelligence exchanges, including South Korean assessments of North Korea and China and NATO analyses of threats from Russia. South Korea aspires to become one of the top defense exporters by 2030. Based on its world-leading manufacturing capabilities in automobiles, shipbuilding, steel production, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and nuclear power plants, among other sectors, its ambitions are well within reach. South Korea supplies arms to three main regions—Europe, the Middle East (mainly Gulf states), and the Asia-Pacific. Key European and American defense companies have been leading providers of defense goods and services in the same regions since the end of World War II. Compared to their rivals, ROK defense firms offer definite advantages such as price competitiveness, rapid delivery schedules, and thorough maintenance, repairs, and overhauls (MROs) systems.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and South Korea

131. Beyond the Hype: Assessing Hyperscaler Nuclear Commitments Against U.S. Energy Realities

Author:: John Pendleton and Mackenzie Schuessler
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Electricity demand is rising rapidly, along with growing enthusiasm for nuclear power. In addition to climate concerns and the desire for secure energy, these needs are driven in large part by the planned expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The United States is home to the world’s largest data center market and the leading global cloud service providers, including Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft. These firms—or “hyperscalers”—design, build, and operate massive data center facilities that support skyrocketing AI demands, but require large amounts of firm, scalable, and always-available power. This puts new pressure on electricity grids already facing capacity, reliability, and affordability challenges. As technology companies pursue aggressive AI buildouts, they are seeking innovative ways to meet their energy demands. Nuclear power has thus entered the conversation as one of the few energy sources capable of delivering the kind of firm, high-density electricity that data centers need while simultaneously allowing companies to maintain public climate commitments.1 The entry of hyperscalers into a rapidly evolving nuclear energy market introduces new dynamics to what has been a highly regulated and slow-moving industry. Since 2024, a series of high-profile agreements have been announced between hyperscalers and nuclear utilities, vendors, and reactor designers. These deals signal enthusiasm for the sector, but it is still unclear whether big tech is willing to make big bets on nuclear power. This paper explores how large U.S. technology companies are approaching nuclear power in the context of their energy strategies to meet the escalating demands from AI. The first section describes the approaches hyperscalers are using to secure nuclear energy. To date, their efforts reflect their preference to be energy offtakers (customers) over direct nuclear ownership or project development. The second section then assesses why these approaches have remained cautious, considering factors such as priorities, timing, and costs. Additionally, it considers key entanglement risks that big tech will need to confront including potential reputational exposure, nonproliferation concerns, and management of long-term nuclear waste.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

132. AI and Democracy: Mapping the Intersections

Author:: Rachel George and Ian Klaus
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: AI poses substantial threats and opportunities for democracy in an important year ahead for global democracy. Despite the threats, AI technologies can also improve representative politics, citizen participation, and governance. AI influences democracy through multiple entry points, including elections, citizen deliberation, government services, and social cohesion, all of which are influenced by geopolitics and security. All of these domains, mapped in this paper, face threats related to influence, integrity, and bias, yet also present opportunities for targeted interventions. The current field of interventions at the intersection of AI and democracy is diverse, fragmented, and boutique. Not all AI interventions with the potential to influence democracy are framed as “democracy work,” demonstrating the imperative for democracy advocates to widen the rhetorical aperture and to continue to map, identify, and scale interventions. Diverse actors who are relevant to the connections between AI and democracy require tailored expertise and guardrails to maximize benefits and reduce harms. We present four prominent constellations of actors who operate at the AI–democracy intersection: policy-led, technology-enabled; politics-led, technology-enabled; civil society–led, technology-enabled; and technology-led, policy-deployed. Though each brings advantages, policy-led and technology-led interventions tend to have access to resources and innovation capacity in ways that enable more immediate and sizable impacts.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

133. This Warming Planet Should Learn How to Talk About Migration

Author:: Alejandro Martin Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The places where people can live—with or without dignity—are changing. Extreme heat, droughts, floods, coastal erosion, and sea level rise, among other climate impacts, are reducing the area of the human climate niche, that is, the part of the world most suited for human life. Regardless of how much societies reduce their carbon dioxide emissions today, the locked-in effects of climate change will continue to impact them for decades, if not centuries. In this context, the World Bank estimates that more than 200 million people globally could be forced to leave their homes by 2050. Governments all over the world must design and deliver effective policy responses to the risks associated with this large-scale movement of people. However, policymakers are limited in their options by the prevalence of misinformed narratives on migration (see box 1) that can make the sensible policy paths seem unattainable.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Mobility, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

134. Getting Debt Sustainability Analysis Right: Eight Reforms for the Framework for Low-Income Countries

Author:: C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Assessing the sustainability of developing countries’ debt is an essential task of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, but it is also a controversial one. The two institutions are currently reviewing the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries (abbreviated as LIC-DSF). This paper provides a primer on the framework’s basic elements, an overview of critiques from a variety of perspectives, and analysis of selected issues, including the endogeneity of analysis of sustainability, analysis of debtors’ institutional strength, analysis of domestic political conditions, role and exercise of staff judgment, and collaboration between the World Bank and the IMF. The paper recommends eight improvements, including streamlining the institutional indicators, better separating economic analysis from political judgment, adopting certain procedures for applying judgment, and selectively introducing climate considerations.
Topic:: Debt, World Bank, Sustainability, IMF, and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

135. Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy

Author:: Christopher S. Chivvis and Senkai Hsia
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: When Joe Biden’s administration took office in January 2021, U.S.-China relations were in free fall. The era of presumed convergence had ended, mutual trust had collapsed, and the risk of escalation was real. The COVID-19 pandemic was raging. The central question was whether the relationship would harden into open and dangerous hostility or settle into a more durable form of rivalry. Biden officials viewed the inheritance of the first Trump administration to be a sharpened awareness of the China challenge but an underdeveloped national strategy and limited institutional capacity for that challenge. They set out to impose greater coherence, discipline, and durability on the U.S. approach to this crucial problem of American statecraft. At the heart of Biden’s approach was the consolidation of a framework for strategic competition with an eye toward coexistence. These officials accepted that China and the Chinese Communist Party are permanent features of the geopolitical landscape and that neither America nor China could meaningfully defeat the other without catastrophic cost. Their objective was therefore not dominance, but competitive coexistence—preserving U.S. advantages while avoiding war. That framing now shapes Washington’s statecraft and has endured even in the second Trump administration, albeit with some adjustments. The Biden team looked to technology as the center of gravity of their strategy. Building on but systematizing earlier efforts, they deployed export controls, industrial policy, and alliance coordination to protect U.S. leadership in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing. For the first time in decades, technological advantage was treated as the decisive arena of great-power rivalry. This shift represents one of their most consequential legacies. The Biden administration also paired competition with sustained diplomacy—especially in the second half of its term. Rather than treating dialogue as a concession, the White House aimed to use it to reduce misperception and manage risk. Strategic communications channels were restored and military-to-military contacts resumed. This produced tangible gains, including improved crisis management and renewed Chinese cooperation on fentanyl enforcement. Biden’s diplomats did not aim to eliminate rivalry, only to stabilize it by convincing Beijing that strategic competition was the appropriate framing for the U.S.-China relationship. Without this diplomatic track, the competitive strategy would have been more dangerous. The administration also emphasized U.S. alliances, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Security ties with Japan, Australia, India, and the Philippines deepened, and the administration worked to improve military coordination. At the same time, the administration was cautious about market opening, judging the domestic costs to outweigh the alliance building benefits. The alliance network thus grew stronger on defense but less integrated economically than long-term competition may require. On military strategy, the administration took a maximalist approach that bolstered deterrence, but they did so without fully resolving a fundamental question: how much is enough? Investments in regional posture and advanced capabilities were substantial, yet the strategy leaned toward maximizing capability rather than defining sufficiency from a strategic perspective. A competition framework does not require primacy at all costs. Future administrations will need to determine how to balance deterrence with flexibility, fiscal sustainability, and escalation risk—especially as the depth of U.S. support for conflict with China can be questioned. Biden’s China policy was calibrated realism—neither naive nor warlike. It recognized that long-term competition will be decided more by American domestic vitality than by military deployments. The strategy’s enduring insight is that diplomacy is an important complement to sustaining technological leadership, economic resilience, political stability, and capable alliances. These ultimately matter more than rhetorical confrontation and maximizing military advantage. The U.S.-China relationship remains fraught and unsettled, but Biden established a structured rivalry that avoided collapse and created a baseline from which future leaders—of either party—can operate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

136. Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and Prospects

Author:: Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Barely two months into his presidency of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte attended the 2016 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. The former mayor of Davao City had just swept the presidential election to become the first executive from outside of the Manila-based political establishment. Rather than reading a scripted speech, he launched into an impromptu tirade about colonial atrocities by the United States. Duterte went on to defend his violent war on drugs and rebut the criticisms of his equally violent purge of suspected criminals.1 The world was shocked by the bad manners exhibited by Duterte, especially his insult to then U.S. president Barack Obama.2 This was the beginning of the shift in Philippine foreign policy toward a more populist, illiberal, and revisionist posture—one that would last until Duterte’s presidency ended in 2022. This essay advances two core arguments about how Duterte’s right-wing populism shaped Philippine foreign policy. First, Duterte’s foreign policy was not motivated by an ideology, so much as by a performance anchored in symbolic defiance, personalized diplomacy, and selective norm rejection.3 Second, Duterte’s populist revisionism ultimately collided with entrenched structural constraints, including the country’s enduring security dependence on the United States, institutional resistance within the bureaucracy, and the democratic political succession that brought the nonpopulist President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to power. Taken together, these constraints exposed the limits of populist foreign policy in a small and militarily vulnerable state situated on the front lines of the U.S.-China rivalry. Since Duterte was elected, there has been widespread recognition that populism’s impact goes beyond national borders. In Europe, for instance, populists tended not to touch traditional foreign policy and security issues until the 2015 refugee crisis. The wave of populism that followed was marked by a contempt for the cosmopolitan European outlook that had long underpinned support for the European Union, liberal migration policies, and Europe’s reliance on the United States for its security.4 Populists on both the left and right are often skeptical of multilateral institutions because they restrain state power. Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chávez, for example, attempted to form alternative regional institutions in the Americas to counter U.S. hegemony.5 The revisionist impulse inherent in populism inclines its leaders toward foreign policy adventurism, even though abrupt shifts are uncommon given the durability of national strategic interests. Populist leaders also often exhibit a high risk tolerance—especially personalist leaders in command of highly concentrated state power.6 Moreover, they often see foreign policy as a means of weakening their political opponents and consolidating power at home. They also crave international recognition, which they pursue through “megaphone diplomacy” that foregrounds their personality and charisma.7 The burden of managing foreign relations is bearable for the populist up to the point that strategic reality intervenes, imposing itself in ways that leave scant room for performance. Populist politics, therefore, are unable to resist the water’s edge. This essay proceeds by tracing the right-wing populist currents in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte through three major international issues: disputes with China in the South China Sea, the attempted abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States, and the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Respectively, each of these issues foregrounds one of the foundations of Philippine foreign policy that Duterte attempted to undermine: international law, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, and human rights. The essay goes on to analyze how these foreign policy stances resonated with the revisionist orientations of countries that Duterte sought inspiration from—namely China and Russia. These revisionist narratives were reinforced in the Philippines through domestic disinformation networks that learned strategies from Russia and China.8 Finally, the essay highlights the implications of Duterte’s populist policies under the Marcos Jr. administration and examines the prospects of their revival in the future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Populism, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

137. The French Far Right’s Foreign Policy: Big Ambitions, Uncertain Direction

Author:: Catherine Fieschi
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: France occupies a singular position in Europe when it comes to right-wing populist and far-right politics. The country is home to one of the oldest and most electorally successful far-right and populist traditions in Western Europe—from its pre–Second World War thinkers such as Charles Maurras and groups such as Action Française to the tax revolt movement of Pierre Poujade in the 1950s and now the political party known as the Rassemblement National (National Rally)—yet no right-wing populist or far-right party has captured the presidency since the Second World War. At the same time, in France of all European countries, such a takeover would have the most immediate and consequential foreign policy effects, given the extraordinary concentration of diplomatic and military authority vested in the French presidency itself. The case of the National Rally offers a useful window into the intersection of populism, foreign policy, and strong presidentialism. Specifically, it highlights the difficulties populist leaders encounter in building alliances, both globally and within Europe, and helps explain why populists may end up hedging on key foreign policy positions. The possibility of a Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella presidency, moreover, underscores a broader risk: that right-wing populism in middle powers could erode the very international order that has enabled middle powers to attain and sustain their influence. The differences between the National Rally’s two leaders—Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella—are also emblematic of a broader divide among right-wing populists in Europe: On the one side, there are those who aim to reshape Europe from within by steering EU institutions in a conservative-national direction. Hungary’s ousted Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni loosely embody this side, which in France is represented by Jordan Bardella. On the other side, there are those who reject the EU’s supranational constraints altogether. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, represents the latter, which in France is closer to Le Pen. What makes France distinctive is that this divide exists within a single party and between its two potential presidential candidates for 2027—with Le Pen retaining the loyalty of much of the party’s cadre, but with Bardella, despite internal resistance, also commanding broad electoral support.1 In France, the question of who will campaign for the presidency will therefore be critical.2 Le Pen—and her “brand”—remains the party’s strongest electoral asset and would likely have a better chance of winning a presidential election than Bardella. Yet her instincts remain more confrontational toward Europe and multilateral institutions. By contrast, while Bardella is more market-friendly and potentially less disruptive internationally, he remains—despite his popularity with voters—untested in the uniquely demanding environment of French presidential campaigning.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe and France

138. From Digitalization to Forest Pedagogy: Innovative Educational Pathways for Sustainable Development in Poland

Author:: Szymon Godawa
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Education for sustainable development (ESD) requires new forms of teacher preparation that combine theoretical knowledge with practical experience. The aim of this study was to analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of workshop-based classes designed to develop micro-competences – understood here as narrowly defined, measurable components of professional competences that can be certified through micro-credentials in accordance with European Commission guidelines (2022). The research was qualitative in nature and was conducted within the interpretive paradigm. Participant observation and document analysis were applied, including thematic analysis of didactic commentaries following Braun & Clarke’s (2006) procedure. The study involved 70 fifth-year students of preschool and early school pedagogy, who participated in 15 hours of lectures and 15 hours of exercises dedicated to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the UN 2030 Agenda. The results show that students significantly developed social competences (teamwork, empathy, communication), the ability to integrate theory with practice, and critical thinking regarding socio-ecological challenges. They demonstrated high readiness to implement educational innovations and to apply the principles of Universal Design for Learning (UDL). However, deficiencies were observed in entrepreneurial competences, particularly in planning and initiating micro-enterprises, which indicates the need to strengthen economic and career education in teacher training. These findings confirm that well-structured, experiential ESD activities are an effective means of preparing future teachers for the challenges of the 21st century. They also highlight the need to supplement curricula with elements developing entrepreneurial and systemic thinking, which are crucial for building ecological social capital and promoting lifelong learning.
Topic:: Education, Pedagogy, Innovation, Digitalization, Sustainable Development, Credentials, and Experiential Learning
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

139. Resilience and Cross-Border Cooperation in Cultural Heritage Protection: The Lublin Triangle’s Response to Ukraine’s Cultural Crisis

Author:: Elżbieta Olzacka and Katarzyna Pasternak
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The article examines how Poland and Lithuania supported Ukraine’s cultural heritage during Russia’s full scale invasion and clarifies the Lublin Triangle’s primarily political, solidarity building function rather than an operational delivery role. Drawing on qualitative analysis of official documents, institutional reports, public communications, and stakeholder interviews, it evaluates cultural sector responses in 2022–2023 with attention to delivery capacity, coordination, and sustainability. The study finds that targeted aid to museums, archives, and memory institutions was provided chiefly through bilateral and institution to institution mechanisms, while the Lublin Triangle consolidated political messaging without generating rapid tools for cultural protection. Across cases, core contribution areas included logistics (protective materials and transport), training (emergency safeguarding and evacuation), documentation (damage assessment and digitization), and international advocacy (UNESCO aligned actions and anti trafficking guidance). The analysis underscores the need to institutionalize hybrid, apolitical arrangements that couple governmental legitimacy with the flexibility and resilience of civil society networks, mitigating vulnerability to political cycles and sustaining cultural heritage protection under wartime conditions.
Topic:: Museums, Resilience, Heritage, Cooperation, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Lublin Triangle

140. Ecological Statecraft in the Midst of War: Water, Regeneration, and the Future of Gulf Security

Author:: Olivia Lazard and Ali Bin Shahid
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The 2026 U.S.-Iran war is radiating through the Gulf’s energy systems, maritime routes, supply chains, food corridors, financial flows, and regional diplomacy—and its effects will be long-lasting. In energy markets, the war is accelerating demand toward more autonomous sources like renewables. On food, the world is bracing for a compound crisis: a convergence of disrupted fertilizer supply chains, inflationary pressures, and El Niño–induced crop failures. These are cascading trends that will demand sustained attention for years to come. But one long-tail effect has already slipped out of view. The war has crossed a dangerous threshold: Infrastructure essential to civilian survival, including desalination facilities, has been directly targeted. Water infrastructure is emerging as a strategic target in kinetic warfare against a background of structural scarcity. This marks a qualitative shift in the Gulf’s security landscape. In a region defined by extreme aridity, collapsing groundwater reserves, and deep structural dependence on manufactured water, desalination infrastructure is not merely a technical utility; it is part of the region’s survival architecture. Millions depend on a relatively concentrated set of energy-intensive coastal plants for drinking water, industry, and urban continuity. The exposure of this infrastructure reveals that ecological fragility and military escalation are no longer parallel crises: They are becoming fused within a single battle space.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Ecology, Statecraft, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

141. How much does democracy cost in Lithuania? An analysis of the cost of a parliamentary mandate based on the example of Lithuanian political parties in the 2020 and 2024 parliamentary elections

Author:: Martinas Malużinas
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyze the sources, possibilities of obtaining, and the total amount of funds spent by political parties on election campaigns within the Lithuanian political system. This work is based on quantitative analysis, which enables the assessment of the income and expenses of individual political parties during the 2020 and 2024 parliamentary election campaigns. The methodology is based on a case study and systemic analysis, allowing for a detailed examination of the Lithuanian party system, in which the functioning political parties follow the cartel party model according to the concept of Katz and Mair (1995). The analysis of party income and campaign expenditures for the 2020-2024 parliamentary elections showed that Lithuanian political parties are dependent on various sources of funding: donations from individuals and legal entities, membership fees, and state budget funds. Moreover, the analysis showed that the expenditures of political parties and their candidates on the election campaign in 2020 (in euros) averaged approximately 430,095 EUR per party. The cost of obtaining one parliamentary seat for a political party in the 2020 elections (in euros) averaged 106,557 EUR per member of parliament. Lithuanian political parties rely on various sources of funding: donations from individuals and legal entities, membership fees, and funds from the state budget.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Financial Resources
Political Geography:: Europe and Lithuania

142. “Greening” the Maghreb or Exploiting It?

Author:: Yasmine Zarhloule
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The European Union-led green transition is turning the Maghreb—Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia—into an energy frontier, hosting megaprojects and wind, solar, and hydrogen corridors. Will going green, which presents an opportunity and a trap, generate development in the Maghreb or will it reproduce new forms of extraction? Building domestic capabilities that deliver tangible gains is crucial for stability and resilience under climate stress. Otherwise, energy exports may help Europe, but only deepen domestic burdens.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, European Union, Extractive Industries, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia

143. Learning Mandarin, Riding the Metro: China’s Street-Level Presence in Bogotá

Author:: Tony Kirby
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: China’s presence in Colombia is no longer an abstract geopolitical discussion but rather a reality negotiated day by day through construction work, commercial exchange, language learning, and personal relationships.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Construction
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Colombia, and South America

144. An Unbowed Petro Successfully Plays the Diplomat

Author:: Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s positive meeting with Trump stands to benefit not only his coalition, but also the region writ large.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, Regional Politics, and Gustavo Petro
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

145. The Amazon’s Invisible Crisis: How Environmental Crime Is Reshaping Humanitarian Emergencies

Author:: Ludmila Quirós
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As environmental crimes threaten Indigenous communities in the Amazon, their struggles are ignored by a humanitarian system that has rendered such emergencies invisible.
Topic:: Environment, Indigenous, Humanitarian Crisis, and Environmental Crime
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

146. Milei’s War against the Working Class

Author:: Juan Cruz Ferre and Cecilia Garcilazo
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Argentina’s sweeping labor reform, heavily resisted in the streets, is set to roll back nearly a century of hard-fought rights.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Protests, Labor Rights, Working Class, Javier Milei, and Labor Reform
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

147. Faith and Body: New Battle Over Abortion in Argentina

Author:: Leonel Fernández
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Reproductive rights in Argentina face increased obstacles as the administration of Javier Milei emboldens anti-rights groups and politicians.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Far Right, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

148. Argentina’s Glaciers are Under Threat

Author:: Olivia Ferrari
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As the country’s far-right government attempts to undo groundbreaking legislation that has protected glaciers for 15 years, activists are fighting back.
Topic:: Climate Change, Far Right, Activism, and Glaciers
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

149. Bolivia into the Abyss

Author:: Angus McNelly
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Fuel shortages, inflation, and political exclusion have triggered a wave of fragmented unrest with no clear movement capable of channeling popular anger.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Inflation, Fossil Fuels, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

150. Impunity and the Permanent Coup in Peru

Author:: George Ygarza
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A massacre in a peripheral area of Peru highlights how the state has built a system that perpetuates impunity.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Impunity, Coup, and Massacre
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

151. Iran may be a turning point for US regime change objectives in Latin America

Author:: Tiziano Breda and Sandra Pellegrini
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In Venezuela, Operation Absolute Resolve caused no American fatalities, and Nicolás Maduro was captured swiftly and replaced with Delcy Rodríguez, who embarked on normalization of relations with the United States and reforms that benefit US interests. In contrast, Operation Epic Fury in Iran has already seen hundreds of American service members injured and seven killed; Iranian retaliation has inflicted serious political costs on the US and allies; and the replacement for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in US-Israeli operations, is his son, a fellow hard-liner — signaling Iranian defiance rather than concessions. The risk of increasing entanglement in Iran will likely weaken US capacity and dampen domestic appetite for further intervention, at least ahead of the November mid-term elections. Sustained US military engagement in the Middle East may further divert some of its resources deployed in the Caribbean, already deprived of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier.1 This, in turn, may limit the credibility of any threat of further US operations in Venezuela or Cuba, hindering Trump’s ability to extract concessions from Caracas and Havana, particularly those related to democratization. Cuba remains a US priority: Trump has reiterated warnings of imminent changes in the island.2 However, recent US-Cuba engagement suggests that a negotiated political settlement, rather than a direct and costly military operation as in Venezuela, has gained traction. The US has applied pressure to bring the Cuban regime to the negotiating table. A blockade on oil exports has already triggered several power outages that have affected all sectors of the economy and access to basic necessities, and these are likely to deepen as oil import prices hike. The shortages risk heightening social discontent and increase domestic pressure on the government. Previous spikes in demonstrations in Cuba have been spurred by fuel and energy shortages, and recent protests suggest this dynamic remains potent.3
Topic:: Regime Change, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, Energy, and Operation Epic Fury
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Cuba, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

152. The migration debate on the streets: Four key things to know from global data on protests

Author:: Kieran Doyle and Ciro Murillo
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has sent shockwaves across the United States. Far-reaching detention operations across the country led by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have sparked thousands of anti-ICE and pro-migrant protests. In early January 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) massively expanded “Operation Metro Surge” in Minnesota, making it the agency’s largest-ever operation. Within three weeks, federal migration enforcement officers shot and killed two people in incidents that were recorded from multiple angles by bystanders in videos that quickly went viral. These shootings inflamed already heightened tensions between demonstrators and law enforcement agents and triggered hundreds of anti-ICE protests across the country. As the operation continues despite Trump’s promise of “de-escalation,” and amid a fresh ICE operation in Maine, it’s clear that the fight over migration in the US is far from finished.1 The situation in the United States is not unique – these protests represent a fraction of the larger picture of demonstrations over migration worldwide. ACLED records migration-related demonstrations in over 75 countries since the beginning of 2025. From peaceful demonstrations to episodes of violence perpetrated by radical groups, sentiments toward migration manifest differently across regional and political contexts. ACLED’s protest data provide four key insights on surges in pro- and anti-migration mobilization. These findings reflect how migration demonstrations are a global phenomenon – albeit much more concentrated in major destination countries – and point to how migration and migration crackdowns play a role in polarizing societies around the world.
Topic:: Migration, Protests, Political Extremism, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

153. Ukraine war: How six new trends are shaping the conflict

Author:: Olha Polishchuk and Cristian Vlas
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Russia made limited yet costly advances in the Donetsk region, and expanded pressure along the northern front and the Zaporizhia region. As Russia scaled up its drone production, it has also spread and intensified its drone-led civilian targeting across Ukraine. Russia ramped up its campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of the coldest winter since the war began, causing widespread blackouts during freezing temperatures. Ukraine sharpened its long-range attacks deep into Russian territory, targeting oil and military facilities to generate economic and reputational damage. Russia tested and mapped security across Europe by engaging in sabotage, drone overflights, and provocative use of weapons. Ukraine faced an increasing number of Russian-recruited saboteurs and genuine cohesion challenges around anti-corruption efforts.
Topic:: Drones, Armed Conflict, Sabotage, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

154. Africa: Non-state armed groups are the main drivers of violence targeting local officials

Author:: Christian Jaffe
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In 2025, violence affected local officials in 28 African countries but was strongly concentrated in the east and west of the continent (see map below). Although this violence has been decreasing regionwide since 2023, in three of the six worst-affected countries — Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Cameroon — it grew in 2025. In South Sudan, it remained at the same levels recorded in 2024, while it decreased in Kenya and Somalia. All six of these countries were also in the top 10 worst-affected countries in 2024.
Topic:: Political Violence, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Violence, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Cameroon

155. Blue Nile: From peripheral front to central battleground in the Sudan conflict

Author:: Jalale Getachew Birru
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The 25 January clash between the SAF and the RSF and SPLM-N Hilu faction now places Blue Nile state at the center of the Sudan conflict.
Topic:: Civil War, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Blue Nile

156. GR&P Seminar: The Impact of Global Change on Food Trade Vulnerability and Food Security

Author:: Kenneth Strzepek and Gregory Sixt
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: International food trade has become essential for global food security, with over 40% of staple foods traded internationally. However, interconnected food networks are vulnerable to climatic, economic, and geopolitical shocks. This event will discuss the new MIT Jameel Index for Food Trade and Vulnerability, a comprehensive index linking food trade exposure to national resilience. Developed to inform evidence-based policymaking, the Jameel Index offers new insights into which countries are most at risk from disruptions in food trade and how global food systems can be strengthened. The seminar will present findings from projections of economic, population, and climate change impacts on food trade vulnerability for 2035 and 2050, and discuss their policy implications for addressing growing food insecurity in a volatile geopolitical and climate landscape. Kenneth Strzepek, PhD, is a Climate, Water, and Food Specialist and a Research Scientist at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy. He is also Professor Emeritus of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Boulder at Colorado. He has worked for a range of national governments as well as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the USAID. Additionally, he holds research appointments at the International Food Policy Research Institute and at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. Gregory Sixt, PhD, directs the Food and Climate Systems Transformation (FACT) Alliance, an MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS)-led global network of leading research institutions and stakeholder organizations working to shorten the link between research and action. He also serves as Research Manager for Food and Climate Systems on various J-WAFS projects. Previously, he worked at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
Topic:: Food Security, Geopolitics, Trade, Supply Chains, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

157. When Weak States Win: A Supermodular Game-Theoretic Account of the 2006 Bolivia–Brazil Gas Crisis

Author:: Rodrigo Lyra and Manoel Galdino
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: What if third-party involvement and economic interdependence, often assumed to foster compromise, are precisely what entrench escalation in international negotiations? This paper introduces a supermodular game-theoretic framework to explain how indirect third-party alignment and domestic political constraints can produce strategic complementarities that lock actors into rigid bargaining positions. Drawing on an analytic narrative of the 2006 Bolivia–Brazil gas negotiations, we demonstrate how Venezuela’s political and financial backing emboldened Bolivia to harden its stance, while Brazil’s capacity to respond assertively was neutralized by domestic audience costs, intensified by electoral pressures. The result was not mediation or de-escalation, but a contested equilibrium shaped by positive feedback dynamics. Our findings show that third-party support can strategically reshape payoff structures in ways that incentivize escalation, even under conditions of deep interdependence. This framework advances the study of international negotiations by modelling how escalation can emerge endogenously from the strategic structure of trilateral interactions.
Topic:: Gas, Negotiation, Crisis Management, Game Theory, and Supermodular Game Theory
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Bolivia

158. The Renewed Promise of Hegemony

Author:: Sean Burges and Fabricio H. Chagas-Bastos
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Contemporary world order exhibits interdependence without a single state able to impose ordering principles unilaterally and without the hegemonic war often presumed to clear the slate. Scholarship conflates dominant power with the order it sponsors, so criticism of the liberal international order (LIO) is read as an attack on primacy. This article theorises hegemony, in Gramscian terms, as a relational ordering structure that fuses coercion, political economy, and ideas, and that endures through absorption and co-option of dissent. Challenges are incorporated through selective concessions and institutional redesign, diluting their transformative content while reiterating core principles. Our argument decouples power transition from order transition, moving debate beyond collapse versus persistence by advancing an analytically tractable account of adaptive endurance that shows how hegemonic orders renew themselves through the managed incorporation of critique into institutional reform.
Topic:: International Relations, Hegemony, Liberal Order, International Order, and Interdependence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

159. From fragmentation to integration: China’s “Vertical-Horizontal Model” for the protection of overseas interests

Author:: Zhiqiang Zou, Degang Sun, and Jinan Wang
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China’s overseas interests have been faced with a growing array of multidimensional threats. China has carried out legislative and institutional reforms, forming a “vertical-horizontal model” for interagency cooperation and government-society fusion. The central government of China has passed a series of legislative acts to legalise China’s protection of overseas interests, a top-down vertical governance. Parallel ministries, departments, and offices have formed task-based institutions through consultation to promote China’s overseas interest protection, thereby establishing a cross-sectoral horizontal governance mechanism. The implementation of the “vertical-horizontal model,” however, confronts an array of hurdles, with heavy bureaucracy potentially giving rise to problems such as inefficiency and collective irresponsibility.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Reform, Legislation, Institutions, and Vertical-Horizontal Model
Political Geography:: China and Asia

160. Ecological Federalism: Ethical Frameworks for Domestic Climate Migration

Author:: Preston Ferraiuolo and Kate Voltz
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: Moving from international climate migration to domestic climate migration within the United States, this brief argues that intensifying climate risks will increasingly motivate internal relocation. It develops a framework of ecological federalism that calls for institutionalized resettlement systems, support for communities to migrate together where possible, and protections for original residents in receiving communities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Resettlement, and Ecological Federalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

161. Fascism in Football: How the Beautiful Game Turned Ugly

Author:: Gabriele Cosentino
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: December 26, 2018 was supposed to be an exciting day for Italian football fans: it was the first time matches of the top national league, Serie A, were scheduled during the Christmas holidays, to add some sports fun to the festive season. The big match of the day was Inter Milan vs Napoli, a classic face-off between two of the most prominent teams in Italy. The post-match TV coverage, however, did not dwell on scored goals or athletic feats, but rather on the violent riots among Inter and Napoli fans that left one man dead. During the riots, Daniele Belardinelli, a supporter of the Italian team Varese, was mowed down by an SUV driven by a Napoli fan. Belardinelli was an ultrà, a slang term used to identify hardcore football fans, in Italy and across Europe. Ultras are a fixture of Italian football, well known for expressing their diehard fandom through colorful, sometimes scurrilous chants and highly choreographic banners. Unfortunately, they are also notorious for their racist and violent behavior and, increasingly, engagement in political extremism and illegal activities. While some ultras groups subscribe to progressive or leftist ideology, the great majority lean to the far-right. Often, groups supporting different teams form bonds along ideological lines. Ultras of Varese and Inter are both far-right oriented and have a long history of political alignment and mutual support. Belardinelli had joined fans of Inter Milan in an ambush against a busload of Napoli fans. Despite the attack’s careful planning—which managed to defy the police intervention—he was caught off guard by the car that rammed into the crowd of Inter fans and took his life.
Topic:: Politics, Fascism, Far Right, and Football
Political Geography:: Europe

162. Critical Education in the Age of Trump’s Fascist Politics

Author:: Henry A. Giroux
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: We live in a dangerous historical moment when fascist politics no longer lurk on the margins but occupy the centers of power. Across the globe—from the United States to Hungary, Chile, India, and Argentina, and elsewhere—authoritarian regimes are hollowing out democracy, merging violence with spectacle, and transforming education into a battlefield over truth itself. Journalists increasingly describe this shift as a “campaign of annihilation”. What is under assault is not simply the university or the classroom, but the capacity to think, remember, and act collectively. The struggle over education is therefore the struggle over democracy’s very promise. To reclaim education as a public good is, therefore, to reclaim the means through which consciousness becomes political, and politics becomes collective. The question before us is not merely whether education matters, but whether it can still awaken a public imagination capable of turning thought into resistance, and resistance into mass action. In such times, the issue is also whether education can survive as a democratic force in an age of emerging fascism across the globe.
Topic:: Education, Democracy, Fascism, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

163. Urbicide and the Brutal Unmaking of the City in Gaza

Author:: Muhammad Alaraby
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The war in Gaza speaks volumes about the future of warfare—privatized by mercenaries, automated by the large-scale deployment of AI-enabled weaponry, mediated by the live transmission of atrocities, and totally urbanized as they erase life in city centres. Although the human losses in Gaza are staggering—killing 70 thousand people, amounting to outright ‘genocide’—the war has also resulted in large-scale ‘urbicide’ through the annihilation of Gaza’s city spaces. Yet, this aspect of war will not end as the dust of destruction settles; it may resume with a new peace plan that opens Gaza to global capital to reshape its future, as envisioned by Trump.
Topic:: Genocide, Artificial Intelligence, 2023 Gaza War, Urbicide, and Urban Warfare
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

164. When European Semi-Fascism and Israeli Occupation Converge

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Semi-fascist parties in Europe support the exclusionary politics of Israel’s ultra-nationalists and ultra-religionists, raising concerns about their own plans once in office.
Topic:: Nationalism, Politics, Occupation, Fascism, Far Right, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

165. Using Sex to Sell Racism: How AfD Policies Defy Logic

Author:: Dagmar Herzog
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The sexual politics of the new far-right parties like the Alternative für Deutschland are full of deliberate contradictions and obvious echoes of Nazism.
Topic:: Far Right, Sexuality, Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Nazism
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

166. Lebanon and the Regional Conflict

Author:: Arab Barometer
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Before Israel’s recent airstrikes and ground invasion in southern Lebanon as part of the widening regional war centered on Iran and its proxies, Lebanon was already in a condition of profound structural weakness. A recent survey of 1,200 randomly selected Lebanese citizens conducted by Arab Barometer in partnership with the Middle East Consultation Group of the Munich Security Conference provides key insights into conditions shortly before these recent events. The November 2025 survey presents a picture of a country that remained deeply pessimistic about the economy, distrustful of political institutions, and frustrated by corruption and state failure. Yet it also revealed a limited but important shift: for the first time in many years, Lebanese citizens exhibited greater hope. Compared with a survey conducted in spring of 2024, which was conducted before Israel’s major military campaign that severely weakened Hezbollah, the 2025 survey finds Lebanese were willing to place some confidence in state institutions and the future of their country. The Israeli attacks and ground incursions into Lebanon in March 2026 have displaced hundreds of thousands and turned a substantial share of the country into an active evacuation zone come within this framework. Depending on the exact extent of the current conflict, it is possible that these minor gains will face a major setback. Beyond Israel’s incursions, Lebanon has faced a number of other recent crises. In 2019, Lebanon faced one of the worst economic collapses in modern history. Political stagnation and the entrenched sectarian system resulted in a period where Lebanon lacked a president for more than two years from October 2022 to January 2025. At the same time, Lebanon faced significant challenges from the Syrian crisis next door with well over a million refugees being hosted in the country
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Corruption, Education, Health, Governance, Democracy, Refugees, Economy, Institutions, Armed Conflict, Labor Market, and Political System
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

167. Palestine 2025: Views on Domestic Challenges and the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

Author:: Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: This report is the second in a series covering the results of the ninth Arab Barometer (AB9) survey in Palestine. It presents findings related to three main issues: perceptions of the challenges confronting Palestinians two years after the Gaza war, attitudes toward the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and perceptions of regional and international actors. AB9 was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) in the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 8 and 26 October 2025. The period preceding the survey witnessed several important developments, including the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip until a ceasefire was reached two days after fieldwork began. In the West Bank, settler violence and attacks continued against vulnerable and unprotected Palestinian communities, often without intervention by either Palestinian or Israeli police. In some cases, these assaults occurred with complicity or even encouragement from the Israeli government, while the Israeli army provided protection primarily to settlers. The army also imposed closures on Palestinian areas and restricted access to main roads throughout the West Bank. The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip was part of what became known as the 20-point Trump Plan, which made no reference to the situation in the West Bank. The period prior to fieldwork also witnessed a sharp decline in government services due to Israeli punitive measures against the Palestinian Authority (PA), including the seizure of clearance revenues. These measures forced the PA to pay only a portion of public sector salaries and curtailed its ability to provide basic services. Israel also imposed stringent conditions, demanding “reforms” that were widely rejected by Palestinian public opinion, such as changes to school curricula and the halting of payments to the families of prisoners and martyrs.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Public Opinion, Economy, Survey, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

168. Palestine 2025: Views on Governance and Domestic Power Balance

Author:: Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Gaza War reshaped Palestinian society: priorities shifted from growth to basic services; trust mixed but satisfaction fell; civil liberties eroded. Public still values democracy yet increasingly favors a strong leader who can deliver stability. Politically, Fatah's support has collapsed, while Hamas has maintained its base, but the largest group is the politically alienated. Social norms grew more conservative. This landscape signals a deep crisis of governance and a public desire for new leadership. These are summary findings from the latest round of the Arab Barometer survey in Palestine, the ninth since these surveys began in the Arab world nearly twenty years ago. The survey was conducted by the institute for Polling and Survey Research West Bank and Gaza Strip during 8–26 October 2025. The period preceding the survey witnessed several important developments, including the continuation of the war on the Gaza Strip until a ceasefire was reached two days after fieldwork began. In the West Bank, settler violence and terror continued against vulnerable, unprotected Palestinian towns without intervention by either the Palestinian or Israeli police to stop these assaults—indeed with complicity and even encouragement in some cases from the Israeli government and with the army providing protection to settlers only. The Israeli army enforced closures on Palestinian areas and restricted Palestinians’ access to main roads in the West Bank.
Topic:: Corruption, Education, Migration, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Survey, Freedom, Political Participation, Palestinians, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

169. Where is AI in GDP statistics? Subtitle Filling the measurement gap

Author:: Anton Korinek
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Quality-adjusted AI production in the United States grew at over 2,000 percent per year in 2024 and 2025, driven by three compounding forces: expanding data-center capacity, hardware efficiency gains, and—the largest of the three—algorithmic progress. Treating the AI sector as a coherent economic entity yields preliminary estimates of nominal AI GDP at approximately $250 billion in 2025, growing at roughly 2,600 percent per year in quality-adjusted real terms. National economic statistics accounts were not designed to track this kind of activity. Statistics agencies should begin developing AI-focused satellite accounts now, before the measurement gap becomes a policy gap. Body The AI economy in the United States has been growing at an unprecedented rate, but this extraordinary growth is largely invisible in conventional GDP statistics. The authors propose developing an “AI GDP” framework to better measure AI’s growing role in the economy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economic Growth, Artificial Intelligence, and Productivity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

170. Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence

Author:: Adnan Mazarei and Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Over the past century, the United States has provided dollar liquidity abroad through both the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but the appropriate mode of liquidity injection depends on the economic, financial, and geopolitical contexts. The Treasury is the more appropriate lending conduit when geopolitical concerns dominate, while Fed dollar provision should primarily be targeted toward global stability objectives and be more insulated from short-term foreign policy motives. Up to now, political abuses of these foreign lending channels have been constrained to some degree by laws, norms, and intergovernmental understandings, but adherence can no longer be assumed, so more formal guardrails are needed.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve, Geopolitics, and Central Bank
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

171. Strengthening Project Vault: The US plan to stockpile critical minerals

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The United States depends heavily on imported critical minerals, including rare earth elements, needed for semiconductors, renewable energy, AI expansion, and defense systems. Because supply disruptions could seriously harm the economy and national security, the US government has launched Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private program to stockpile emergency supplies of critical minerals. Funded by a $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $2 billion in private capital, the project is aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly China, and protecting American—and eventually allied-country—manufacturers from shortages. Project Vault’s design, however, raises important questions about its durability and day-to-day operations.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Commodities, Artificial Intelligence, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

172. Climate Governance Through a Justice Lens in Bangladesh

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: This policy brief draws lessons from the Governance for Climate Resilience (G4CR) initiative in coastal Bangladesh , showing that nature-based solutions work best when combined with inclusive governance and locally led adaptation. Evidence from Munshiganj Union, Shyamnagar highlights how restoring canals as climate-resilience commons can improve freshwater access, support agriculture, revive ecosystems, and strengthen community resilience while addressing unequal power dynamics and elite capture of resources.
Topic:: Climate Change, Justice, Resilience, and Climate Governance
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

173. Legacy of apartheid: Misallocation of labour and firm productivity

Author:: Talent Nesongano, Carol Newman, John Rand, and Marvin Suesse
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the extent to which the historical legacy of apartheid laws explains contemporary misallocation and firm productivity in South Africa. During the apartheid era (1948–1994), job reservations, closed-shop agreements, and minimum-wage policies were implemented to restrict occupational mobility for Black workers and to insulate White employees from competition. Using digitized historical data from government gazettes combined with contemporary employer-employee panel data, we identify sectors and districts where these restrictions applied and find persistent impacts on labour allocation today. Results show that historically restricted sector-district pairs exhibit between 4 and 14% more labour misallocation compared to unaffected counterparts. In contrast, we find no significant differences in average firm productivity in treated cells, suggesting that apartheid’s legacy on production persists primarily through allocative inefficiencies rather than observable differences in average firm efficiency. These findings underscore the persistent influence of discriminatory institutions on market efficiency and highlight the importance of policies aimed at correcting historical distortions in labour allocation.
Topic:: Apartheid, Labor Issues, Discrimination, Productivity, Racism, Firms, and Persistence
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

174. Beyond the state, but reinforcing it? Informal tax institutions and state legitimacy in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:: Vanessa van den Boogaard, Yannick Lokaya Bokasola, Gayatri Sahgal, and Caleb Jérémie Dohou
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper explores the role of informal taxation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and aims to shed light on informal fiscal realities and the implications of informal tax institutions for governance and state legitimacy. Relying on mixed-methods data from household surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions across Kinshasa and North Kivu, it focuses on three areas of inquiry: the nature of informal taxation; citizens’ perceptions of formal and informal taxing authorities; and the impact of informal taxation on perceptions of the state’s legitimacy. The paper finds that, while informal taxes place a significant burden on citizens, they may support local governance by supplementing public services and reinforcing perceptions of state legitimacy, particularly in the case of customary contributions. Overall, these findings highlight the complex interplay between informal and formal institutions, challenging assumptions that informal taxation solely undermines state authority. Its insights hold critical implications for scholars of informal governance and policy makers aiming to navigate hybrid governance structures in fragile states.
Topic:: Governance, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and Statebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

175. Climate shocks, labour market dynamics, and inequality in South Africa: Evidence from administrative tax data

Author:: Safa Awaworyi Churchill, Yohannes Kefale Mogess, and Yuvana Jaichand
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on individual earnings and income inequality in South Africa. We leverage high-resolution satellite temperature data, merged with administrative tax records from the South African National Treasury and UNU-WIDER. Data from 2009 to 2022 shows that temperature shocks significantly reduce income, with a one-standard-deviation increase in average temperature associated with a 1 per cent decline in earnings and a 1.3 per cent decline in total income. However, we observe no statistically significant effects on income inequality. Temperature projections from the most recent climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used to simulate the impact of global warming on income in the short, medium, and long term. By 2100, income is projected to decline by 5 per cent without mitigation and adaptation strategies, relative to a ‘best case’ scenario characterized by widespread adoption of renewable energy and climate change mitigation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Inequality, Labor Market, Income, Temperature, and Rainfall
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

176. Social protection in South Africa

Author:: Haroon Bhorat and Morné Oosthuizen
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: South Africa has a relatively well-developed social protection system for a middle-income country. Despite its roots in the country’s racially discriminatory past, the system has been repurposed post-apartheid to address deep poverty and severe inequality. This paper explores key characteristics of the current social protection system, highlighting its large scale and reach. Given high unemployment, the scope of social insurance is relatively limited and the social protection system is largely geared toward s social assistance. Social assistance is well-targeted and has been found to have significant beneficial impacts on poverty and inequality, but also various other socioeconomic outcomes. A key gap in the formal social assistance system is the working-age population: able-bodied working-age adults are covered only by the COVID-19 social relief of distress grant, the introduction of which has reignited calls for the implementation of basic income support despite South Africa’s significantly constrained fiscal environment.
Topic:: Poverty, Fiscal Policy, Cash Transfers, Social Assistance, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

177. Gender and intergenerational mobility: Unequal economic outcomes between siblings

Author:: Martín Leites and Joan Vilá
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the role of sibling sex composition as a potential explanation of the transmission of parental advantages to the next generation. The presence of a brother affects the family environment and parents’ decisions, influencing the siblings’ labour market outcomes in the long term. The results show a negative effect of approximately 2% on the permanent income of women for the presence of a younger brother. This effect does not modify the intergenerational persistence of income. Regarding mechanisms, we find evidence that the effect is amplified when households face tighter budget constraints. Moreover, it is more pronounced in households with traditional gender norms, shaping permanent income, educational choices, and motherhood decisions. These findings underscore the importance of sociocultural mechanisms in accounting for the persistence of inequality.
Topic:: Occupation, Gender Norms, Social Mobility, Gender Wage Gap, Sibling Sex Composition, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

178. Social protection in Egypt

Author:: Ragui Assaad and Irene Selwaness
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The paper examines the structure of the social protection system in Egypt including its contributory and non-contributory components. It begins by examining the historical evolution of the system, its scale and reach, and its sources of financing. The book then assesses the de jure and de facto coverage of the system and the adequacy of payments for different kinds of workers and socio-economic groups. We end by examining the effectiveness of existing institutions in delivering social protection in light of the limited implementation capacity of the state, the incentive of firms to operate in the formal economy, and the potential tensions between individual participation in contributory social insurance and access to noncontributory social assistance.
Topic:: Institutions, Incentives, Social Protection, and Contributory Schemes
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

179. Countering Russian escalation in space

Author:: John Klein and Clementine G. Starling-Daniels
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This report’s findings are meant to guide policymakers in making important decisions about safety, security, and sustainability in the space domain, as well as to better inform the public on these issues. The report explains why current US space policy, Department of Defense (DOD) acquisition programs, and commercial integration strategies by themselves are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The report makes the case for the development of policies, practical strategies, and more effective acquisition programs to better address a range of potential futures, considering possible space-related actions by Russia’s political leadership. Beyond recommending changes to US declaratory policy, this report details why the United States needs a more resilient space architecture. It examines how Russia’s nuclear threat—specifically, its designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit, in clear violation of its obligations under international law—could alter the rationale for pursuing proliferated low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations. This report also explores the kind of space architecture the United States would need during a conflict against a major power, and how the United States can further integrate the private sector and allies in pursuit of its national security objectives. Each of these issues carries significant near-term policy and acquisition implications. This report explains why some US policymakers might be reluctant to take the necessary coercive action to compel acquiescence by Russian political and military leaders. This reluctance is driven by a Western sense of morality and “rightness,” an inherent right of self-defense mentality, and current conceptions of international humanitarian law. US anticipatory actions seeking to deter Russian malicious actions might prove unreliable because any anticipatory action will be a political decision based upon a Western mindset and worldview. This observation underscores that deterrence by denial of benefit—including resilience and active defense—should play a substantial role in military strategies, one even more substantial than cost-imposition efforts. Additionally, assurance and reassurance efforts directed toward Chinese and Indian leadership could help dissuade potential Russian aggressive behavior and deescalate crises. This report’s analysis illuminates important defense and force planning considerations. Its three scenarios span a catastrophic nuclear detonation (NUDET) in LEO to debris-generating anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons to less aggressive action against commercial satellites. A qualitative assessment using a detailed framework highlights the relative importance of the methods used to dissuade potential aggression while also prevailing in conflict. In priority order, the relative importance of affecting Russian leadership’s decision calculus is: deterrence by denial of benefit; assurance and reassurance; and deterrence by cost imposition. Finally, this report provides fifteen actionable policy and defense acquisition recommendations for advancing a comprehensive and practical framework to counter potential Russian aggression and escalation in space. Should dissuasion efforts fail and conflict in space occur, it is necessary that the United States, its allies, and commercial partners fight through Russia’s irresponsible and aggressive actions in space, while working to deescalate any crisis and seek a lasting peace.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, Deterrence, and Space Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and United States of America

180. From alignment to action: Building a durable US-Argentina critical minerals partnership

Author:: Reed Blakemore, Alexis Harmon, and Ignacio Albe
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: For decades, Argentina has been viewed as a mining opportunity that never quite materialized. Now, Argentina’s mining sector is evolving from a speculative frontier to an active, contested space—one where the United States has a clear opportunity. Both countries are confronting different sides of the same challenge. Argentina must translate its mineral wealth into sustained investment and economic growth, while the United States must secure reliable external sources of the materials its economy increasingly depends on. Where these needs intersect, a strategic opportunity is emerging. This report examines Argentina at an inflection point. After decades of policy volatility and stalled development, recent reforms under President Javier Milei, including the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), are beginning to shift investor sentiment. At the same time, Argentina has signaled clear interest in deepening ties with the United States, including through a new bilateral framework that prioritizes critical minerals cooperation. Yet this opportunity is not guaranteed. Infrastructure gaps, energy constraints, and complex provincial dynamics continue to shape project development. Meanwhile, ownership structures and supply chain relationships for lithium and copper are being set now in ways that will influence market alignment for decades. Against this backdrop, Argentina is a critical test case for US economic engagement in regional mineral supply chains. This report outlines how coordinated deployment of US policy and financing tools can help unlock investment while supporting Argentina’s development priorities, including infrastructure expansion and greater local value creation. Ultimately, the case for deeper US–Argentina cooperation is grounded in mutual benefit. For Argentina, it offers a pathway to convert mineral wealth into durable growth. For the United States, it provides access to essential inputs, expanded commercial opportunities, and a chance to demonstrate that its long-term partnerships can deliver.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economic Growth, Mining, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Argentina, South America, North America, and United States of America

181. Standardizing carbon accounting worldwide with a single, robust, cost-effective system

Author:: Vincent Aussilloux, Yann Coatanlem, and Karthik Ramanna
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Developed economies aren’t just underinvesting in the climate transition—they are missing the mark by an order of magnitude. Because green financing is often characterized as underperforming, the capital they do deploy rarely reaches the projects or regions where it’s needed most. But decarbonization doesn’t have to be a synonym for “high risk.” The key to unlocking high-impact, high-return investment lies in better risk management. Measuring a project’s carbon footprint with greater accuracy will mitigate the guesswork that keeps capital on the sidelines. The authors advocate for the Climate Club, an intergovernmental decarbonization forum, to select a single, robust, and cost-effective method for computing products’ carbon footprint. The framework would provide the rigor required to significantly scale climate finance and drive energy security.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Energy, Energy Transition, and Energy Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

182. A US strategy for energy competition with China in emerging markets

Author:: Steven Burns
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Emerging economies are set to drive the largest share of energy demand growth over the next two decades, making them a central arena for competition over influence in the future of global energy systems. China has positioned itself as the dominant partner for energy and infrastructure development across the Global South, in part by pairing state-backed finance with turnkey project delivery, which allows Chinese firms to shape technical standards and financing norms while securing long-term positions in future procurement and service markets. The United States can compete more effectively by organizing its financing, project development, and technical capabilities into a coherent offer that is closer to the speed and simplicity of competing models, while preserving the transparency and predictability on which partners rely.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, Strategic Competition, Energy, and Energy Markets
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

183. Local and community-driven solutions for development in fragile states

Author:: Elton Skendaj, Peter Mandaville, and Ibrahima Bokoum
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Development and democracy efforts are more sustainable and legitimate when communities set priorities and lead design and implementation, rather than relying on donor-driven, technocratic models. Community actors—including civil society groups and faith-based organizations—bring unique trust, contextual knowledge, and long-term presence that external actors cannot replicate. The paper calls for transferring decision-making authority to local actors, investing in mutual capacity-building, and prioritizing participatory, long-term partnerships over short project cycles.
Topic:: Development, Fragile States, Economic Growth, and Economic Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa, East Asia, Caribbean, and Southeast Europe

184. Mining corridors as catalysts: Building on the Lobito model

Author:: Aubrey Hruby
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In December 2025 the US and the DRC signed a strategic partnership agreement giving the US preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The next step should be to build the infrastructure necessary for African nations to derive sustainable wealth from their mineral assets, and for the US to reap the benefits of the strategic partnership agreement. The financing approach and public-private cooperation used to build the Lobito transportation corridor offers a playbook for the US and African governments and investors.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Business, Strategic Partnerships, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, United States of America, and Democratic Republic of Congo

185. Digital sovereignty: Europe’s declaration of independence?

Author:: Frances Burwell and Kenneth Propp
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In 2025, the Trump administration’s open hostility to the EU and close connections with tech CEOs brought long-simmering transatlantic tensions over how to regulate Big Tech to a boil. The effect so far has been to accelerate the EU’s quest to break its dependence on Silicon Valley and China. Washington’s combative posture toward EU tech regulation sets the stage for more conflict that could imperil the $1.5-trillion trading relationship.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Digital Policy, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe

186. Necessary Neighbors: Poland and Ukraine Must Stabilize Their Strained Partnership

Author:: Yuliia Korotia
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Polish-Ukrainian relations have moved from a phase of exceptional solidarity to one of mounting tension and deepening structural strain. What initially seemed to be a long-term strategic partnership grounded in shared security interests has evolved into a more fragmented and fragile, at times almost hostile, relationship. This shift, visible across political, economic, and social dimensions, risks undermining not only bilateral cooperation but also the broader foundations of regional stability at a moment of ongoing war, strategic uncertainty in Europe, and a potentially antagonistic transatlantic relationship. If Poland and Ukraine fail to adopt a more realistic, constructive, and mutually attentive approach to the partnership, their cooperation will weaken in ways that directly affect military logistics, EU cohesion, regional resilience, and resistance to hybrid threats. Understanding how the relationship has changed, and what deeper dynamics are driving this, is essential for assessing the risks ahead and identifying pathways to improve the relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

187. If China Attacks Taiwan: The Consequences for China of “Minor Conflict” and “Major War” Scenarios

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the capabilities of the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Taiwan to assess potential escalation pathways and to better understand war termination strategies.1 Comparatively less attention has been devoted to the potential impact of cross-Strait conflict on the PRC itself and how that impact could shape President Xi Jinping’s risk calculus and decision-making about use of force against Taiwan. Xi’s risk calculus is crucial to understanding if and under what circumstances Beijing might take aggressive actions against Taiwan because any such decision would carry profound political, economic, and strategic consequences for the PRC and for him personally. Xi has tied his legitimacy to putting the PRC on an irreversible path toward the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation by 2049 and unifying Taiwan with the motherland is deemed essential to that goal. Yet a military conflict over Taiwan would risk massive economic disruption, catastrophic military losses, significant social unrest, and devastating sanctions, all of which could turn his dream into a nightmare and undermine his political authority. Xi’s calculus must therefore weigh the perceived benefits of using force to achieve unification against the potential costs. The centrality of Xi’s risk calculus to understanding future PRC decision-making about potential actions against Taiwan demands deeper investigation than has taken place so far. This report seeks to fill this research gap by examining how use of force against Taiwan would impact the PRC in four key areas: its economy, its military capabilities, its social stability, and international costs. Each issue set is evaluated in a separate paper, although all four are interrelated, a factor that the report’s conclusion addresses. Logan Wright and Charlie Vest assess potential implications for the PRC economy. Joel Wuthnow analyzes the possible impact on the Chinese military. Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi consider the potential risks for social stability. Zack Cooper examines the likely international responses and costs. There is a broad range of possible scenarios for PRC use of force against Taiwan. Potential actions taken by Beijing may vary in terms of intensity and duration. To make comparisons possible across the four papers, the authors were given two baseline scenarios, a limited conflict and a major war. Both are described in detail below. In outlining these scenarios, specific triggers were not established. They would nevertheless be important in determining international responses and subsequently would have implications for the PRC economy and possibly for social stability. Although the absence of a detailed trigger is a limiting factor, in any crisis multiple actors will draw their own conclusions about what sparked the conflict, so perceptions of who was at fault would differ across countries. The authors were also permitted to assess cases situated between a minor conflict and a major war, given that the economic, military, political, and international costs may vary discontinuously across a range of scenarios. All scenarios were assumed to occur between 2026 and 2030. The first scenario that authors assess is a minor conflict lasting several weeks. In this case, PRC ships and aircraft surround Taiwan after a series of deadly air and maritime confrontations between their forces. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) then attempts to conduct a “quarantine” of major ports in Taiwan. The United States intervenes and its warships escort commercial vessels through the blockade zone without incident. For the purposes of this scenario, dozens of PRC and Taiwan armed forces members are assumed killed in incidents in the air and at sea. There are no losses of foreign personnel. The conflict terminates when both sides agree to de-escalate the situation. This results in a relatively low intensity and short duration conflict. The second scenario that authors were asked to review was a major conflict of several months that ends in a PLA defeat. This conflict starts with an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in which initial PLA missile strikes target Taiwan’s military and US forces in Japan and Guam. PRC forces land on Taiwan but supplies and follow-on forces are hampered by sustained Taiwanese and US strikes on ships and aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait. After several months of heavy fighting, PRC forces withdraw to the mainland after losing roughly 100,000 personnel. Taiwan suffers approximately 50,000 military casualties and 50,000 civilian casualties. The United States loses 5,000 military members and 1,000 civilians, while Japan loses 1,000 military members and 500 civilians. Beyond this, no substantial foreign losses occur. The conflict terminates when the PLA withdraws from the main island of Taiwan but retains control of the Kinmen and Matsu Islands. The purpose of these scenarios is not to assert that this is how a conflict over Taiwan would play out. The intention is instead to help describe in more detail what the costs would be to the PRC of a failed crossstrait operation. An important caveat is that the authors were asked to make their own assessments of the impact on the PRC in each of the four areas examined. They were not asked to put themselves in Xi’s (or his successor’s) shoes. Xi and his colleagues might underestimate (or overestimate) the costs that the PRC would incur in these scenarios. Even if Beijing anticipates that the costs of taking an action against Taiwan are high, they might proceed despite the perceived risks. National leaders often make choices that overlook high costs if the perceived benefits are high or overridden by political considerations. Xi might conclude that not acting is more costly for him personally than taking a risky action that he believes is necessary to demonstrate resolve. For example, if Xi views a step taken by Taipei as intended to permanently separate it from the PRC, and especially if he judges that Washington supports that goal, he is likely to move against Taiwan even if he expects that the PLA would suffer high casualties in attempting to seize it. Overall, the authors of these essays demonstrate that the costs to the PRC of a failed military operation against Taiwan would be substantial. As noted above, this is not to suggest that Beijing would necessarily be deterred from starting a conflict in the first place. But it would be a mistake to simply assume that the PRC would prevail in a conflict over Taiwan. The history of failed amphibious operations is long, and these essays demonstrate that an unsuccessful PRC-initiated conflict would have severe negative consequences for the country’s economy, military, social stability, and international standing.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

188. A Long Time Coming: Europe and India have discovered a strategic partnership

Author:: Garima Mohan
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The relationship between Europe and India is on the cusp of change. Later this month, in a historic first, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will serve as guest of honor, a position reserved for India’s top partners, at the country’s Republic Day ceremony. At the subsequent EU-India summit, the two sides are likely to sign a long-elusive free trade agreement (FTA) and an expansive security and defense partnership. They are also expected to announce initiatives designed to boost skilled migration, and to foster cooperation between European and Indian industry to enhance economic security. There are several other positive developments. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz just undertook his first official visit to India, also his first to a non-NATO ally. Accompanied by a substantial business delegation, he secured many agreements on defense industrial cooperation, semiconductors, and critical minerals. Recent German governments have made a point of sending top leadership to India before official visits to China, and Merz’s visit continues that convention. French President Emmanuel Macron is due to follow in February to cement his own country’s ties with New Delhi on emerging technologies, thereby broadening an already substantial and critical strategic partnership. India’s foreign minister, in a breakthrough for India’s small-group diplomacy in Europe, just joined a Weimar Format meeting for the first time. Lastly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit the continent in spring for the next India-Nordic summit. For some observers this momentum is the result of the rocky relationships that Europe and India have with the United States. In a world of fractured alliances and partnerships, Europe and India need each other like never before. But the groundwork for their current ties was laid over the last decade. Structural factors such as competition with China, and India’s policy of diversification that led it to focus on ties with the West, have brought them closer and raised bilateral ambitions. The relationship is, however, not without divergences, particularly on approaches to Russia. Based on interviews with policymakers in New Delhi, Paris, Berlin, The Hague, and Brussels, this piece will trace the evolution of the “India agenda” in European foreign policy and lay out Europe’s position among New Delhi’s foreign policy priorities.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

189. Leveraging Remittances for Economic Transformation inECCAS Countries

Author:: Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Remittances are increasingly becoming a strategic yet underutilized lever for economictransformation in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, remittance inflows reached a record USD 54 billion in 2023. Within ECCAS, theDemocratic Republic of Congo (approximately USD 1.4 billion) and Cameroon (about USD 375million) were the main recipients, while other member states received comparatively modestamounts. Although these flows do not collectively reach USD 5 billion at the regional level, theyalready surpass foreign direct investment or official development assistance in specific countriesand play a stabilizing role in household welfare. However, their developmental potential remainslargely untapped due to limited financial inclusion, high transfer costs, and the absence ofeffective institutional mechanisms to channel remittances toward productive investment and economic structural transformation. At the same time, ECCAS economies continue to grapple with persistent challenges : low industrialproductivity, weak competitiveness, fragile regulatory systems, insufficient infrastructure, and poorgovernance quality. These weaknesses are compounded by high levels of financial exclusion,limited access to affordable credit, and rising unemployment especially among young people andvulnerable populations. Combined, these constraints hinder progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 . In thiscontext, better mobilization and strategic use of remittances constitute a viable and largelyuntapped alternative to support economic transformation and resilience.
Topic:: Economic Transformation, Remittances, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:: Africa

190. Improving access to electricity for greater energy justice inEconomic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)

Author:: Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: ECCAS’s growth is constrained by a deep electrification deficit that undermines energy justice,human development, and inclusive structural transformation. Despite its immense energypotential, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) remains one of the leastelectrified sub-regions in Africa. , access to electricity was estimated at just 56.7%, far below thesub-Saharan African average of 72%. This persistent energy deficit fuels domestic energyinsecurity, as millions of poor and vulnerable households still rely on traditional and polluting fuelsfor cooking and heating. The consequences are profound: weakened social services, health risks,reduced productivity, and slowed economic diversification. The impacts span multiple sectors. Inrural areas, health centers lack reliable power for vaccine refrigeration, emergency care, oressential equipment. Households using biomass-based fuels face heightened risks of respiratorydiseases, disproportionately affecting women and children. In education, limited lighting andinadequate digital infrastructure reduce study hours and widen the learning gap. More broadly, unreliable electricity remains a major constraint on industrialization, agro-processing, and private-sector development, weakening the region’s competitiveness and slowing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals .
Topic:: Development, Industrialization, Energy, Sustainable Development, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:: Africa

191. From International Fragmentation to Industrial Cohesion:The Missing Link in AfCFTA Implementation

Author:: Salim Ahmed Vessah, Stephane Atangana, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: As global geo-economic fragmentation accelerates, African economies face rising external shocksfrom supply chain reconfiguration, protectionism, and volatile capital flows. The AfricanContinental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a strategic pathway to build regional resilience,expand industrial capacity, and strengthen economic sovereignty. Yet, despite early trade growth,intra-African trade remains limited, constrained by persistent non-tariff barriers, regulatoryfragmentation, weak logistics infrastructure, and insufficient productive capacity. Without deeperdomestic and regional reforms, AfCFTA risks delivering trade diversion rather than sustainedindustrial transformation. This brief argues that Africa’s central challenge is not market accessalone, but the absence of industrial cohesion that enables firms to scale, integrate into regionalvalue chains, and compete globally. It proposes a reform agenda focused on accelerated NTBremoval, targeted industrial value-chain development, regulatory convergence, digital tradeintegration, and coordinated continental trade diplomacy. Translating AfCFTA from legal ambitioninto economic performance is essential for inclusive growth, resilience, and long-termcompetitiveness in a fragmenting global economy.
Topic:: Resilience, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and Global Economy
Political Geography:: Africa

192. Chinese Loans to Sub-Saharan African countries: BalancingDevelopment and Dependency

Author:: Ahmed Salim Vessah
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Over the past two decades, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) foremost tradingpartner and the region’s main bilateral creditor, profoundly reshaping its financial and geopoliticallandscape. Between 2000 and 2022, Chinese lenders extended over USD 170 billion in loans toAfrican countries , with major recipients (such as Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia)each receiving between USD 5 and 40 billion. Today, China accounts for around 20% of SSA’sbilateral external debt , underscoring its strategic importance in the continent’s developmenttrajectory. This Policy Brief argues that while Chinese loans are instrumental in addressing Africa’smassive infrastructure deficit, they concurrently heighten debt vulnerabilities and geopoliticaldependence. The attractiveness of Chinese financing is best understood in relation to Africa’spersistent structural needs. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB, 2024) , SSA facesan annual infrastructure financing gap of USD 100-150 billion, far exceeding the capacity ofdomestic revenues and traditional donors. Chinese loans therefore stand out due to their speed of approval focus on large-scale physical infrastructure, and limited policy conditionality’s comparedto Western lenders. For many African governments, this makes Chinese credit an appealing andpragmatic alternative for accelerating development.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Trade, and Dependency
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

193. Glocalising Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon:Implications for good governance, equity and inclusiveness

Author:: Constantine Asahngwa
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Despite recent health financing reforms, quality healthcare services remain largely inaccessible tomany Cameroonians with financial barriers being one of the primary reasons. The UniversalHealth Coverage (UHC) program was introduced as a way of enhancing equitable access toquality services, without heavy financial spending for patients. However, rolling out the program inCameroon has raised some conceptual ambiguity as there is no clear understanding of what UHCis all about, including its implementation. Drawing from desk review of policy documents andresearch papers, we argue that UHC has been glocalized in Cameroon and the process hasimplication for good governance, equity and inclusiveness, which are the core values in measuring and assessing its performance. We begin with a presentation of the conceptualization of UHCfrom a global perspective, followed by the glocalization of UHC in Cameroon, its implication forgood governance, access and inclusiveness, and some recommendations for action.
Topic:: Governance, Public Policy, Public Health, Health Insurance, Inclusion, and Equity
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

194. Strengthening Democracy, Deepening Practice, and Shapingthe Future of Governance in Central Africa

Author:: Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Democracy in Central Africa is at a critical juncture. While citizen demand for accountability hasgrown, political instability, fragile institutions, and shrinking civic space continue to underminedemocratic progress. Elections, though increasingly frequent, remain high-stakes events that caneither strengthen legitimacy or expose systemic weaknesses. Ensuring transparency, credibility,and institutional resilience is therefore essential. This policy brief argues that the region’s democratic future depends on translating continentalnorms into national practice, strengthening institutions, and cultivating a civically literate publiccapable of sustaining democratic culture. Without these foundations, reforms risk remainingsymbolic rather than transformative.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Africa and Central Africa

195. Lessons from Community-Based Health Insurance forScaling Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon

Author:: Regina Sinsai and Constantine Asahngwa
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Cameroon’s Universal Health Coverage (UHC) program, launched in 2023, aims to reducefinancial barriers to healthcare. However, coverage remains low (6.4%). Community-Based HealthInsurance (CBHI) schemes, despite their limitations, offer valuable lessons for UHCimplementation—particularly in governance, community engagement, and risk pooling. This briefoutlines these lessons and provides actionable recommendations to strengthen UHC.
Topic:: Governance, Health Insurance, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

196. Closing the Health Insurance Gap for Cameroon’s HealthWorkforce

Author:: Regina Sinsai, Constantine Asahngwa, and Ronald Gobina
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to Cameroon’s health system, yet most lack adequatehealth insurance coverage. Current schemes—NSIF, employer-based plans, and UHC—fail toprotect HCWs from catastrophic health costs. This brief examines the coverage gap, itsimplications, and policy actions to safeguard the health workforce.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Public Policy, Workforce, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

197. Virtual Briefing Series | US Military Posture and Strike Options Against Iran

Author:: Kevin Donegan, Mick Mulroy, and Jason Campbell
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On January 14, as the Iranian regime brutally cracked down on the largest street protests the country had seen in years, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to persevere, posting on social media “help is on its way.” At the time, however, limited US military resources in the theater constrained the president’s military options. In the ensuing month since Trump’s post, the Pentagon has repositioned significant forces to the Middle East. This has led to wide speculation that the US is preparing for renewed strikes on Iran even as the Trump administration pursues diplomatic talks with the Iranian regime. To better understand the military planning and force posture dynamics shaping US policy choices, this briefing featured two Distinguished Military Fellows, former commander of the 5th Fleet VADM Kevin Donegan, USN (Ret.), and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell moderated the discussion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Protests, Military, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

198. Virtual Briefing Series | Tehran’s Brewing Troubles

Author:: Zeina AlShaib, Alan Eyre, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This briefing discussed the ongoing Iranian protests and severe government crackdown, which have rocked Iran since last week. The street demonstrations, sparked by the country’s economic nosedive and at times turning violent, are the largest in three years. As regime arrests and killings of protesters have intensified, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, his remarks potentially taking on a more vivid significance in light of the American military extraction over the weekend of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro — an ally of Tehran. This conversation featured Alan Eyre, Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Eyre retired from the US Foreign Service in September 2023, after a 40-year government career, which included negotiating with the Iranian government over its nuclear program. The discussion also featured Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at MEI and author of the book The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

199. Virtual Briefing Series | What is the Kurds’ place in an evolving Syria?

Author:: Zeina AlShaib, Noah Bonsey, and Amberin Zaman
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: A four-day cease-fire between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was extended over the weekend. The truce follows a dramatic confrontation in which government forces seized large swaths of territory from Kurdish control, reshaping Syria’s political map. What do these developments mean for the country’s political transition? This briefing featured Charles Lister, Senior Fellow with MEI and Director of its Syria Initiative. The briefing will also feature Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor’s chief correspondent, as well as Noah Bonsey, Senior Advisor on Syria with the International Crisis Group. Our experts examined the latest surge in fighting and its impact on earlier plans for the SDF’s integration with Damascus, the fate of ISIS detainees in northeastern Syria, the US response to these developments, and Turkey’s role and influence in the country.
Topic:: Syrian War, Kurds, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Post-Conflict, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

200. How can India Create More Jobs? Unleashing the 1.4 billion: A Blueprint for India s Job Led Resurrection

Author:: Ejaz Ghani
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This paper discusses that while mature firms are becoming “net job destroyers” as they automate, it is the young, agile “Ojazelles” — firms less than five years old — that are currently breathing life into the economy, creating 45% of all new jobs. Yet, these young job creators are being strangled by “Structural Brakes”: a Collateral Trap that prizes ancestral land over fresh ideas, and a Regulatory Tax that punishes firms for growing. The paper proposes a New Social Compact to release these brakes. By leveraging India’s world leading Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), we can bypass the old “Land Finance Nexus” and move to Information Based Lending, where a young person’s talent and data become their new collateral.
Topic:: Economy, Tax Systems, Labor Market, Lending, and Jobs
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS